About The Puerto Rico Turnout

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:48:19 PM EST
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When I predicted 500,000 voters voting today in Puerto Rico before (and it looks like the number will be somewhat lower than that), I noticed that no one discussing what turnout would be in Puerto Rico the most important variable - that Puerto Rico is a machine/patronage jurisdiction. Turnout is almost completely driven by the party machinery of the two main parties - the statehood New Progressive Party (PNP by its Spanish acronym) and the Commonwealth Popular Democratic Party (PDP by its Spanish acronym). The statehood party in particular has an incredible get out the vote machine. And the Commonwealth Party also has a strong get out the vote machine.

So what happened in this election? Two things. First, the Commonwealth Party is led by a dead politician walking, the indicted Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila. Second, the statehood party is led by a Republican supporter of John McCain Luis Fortuno, its gubernatorial candidate. (The strong Hillary supporter and former governor Pedro Rossello lost in a primary to Fortuno for the nomination.) [More...]

So the two political get out the vote machines in Puerto Rico simply were not put into play in this election. Without them, it was simply impossible to envision even a million voters, much less the outlandish estimates some were predicting. Today's turnout was predictable, if you knew something about Puerto Rico politics. In a way, it is rather impressive turnout, as there really are no real Democrats or Republicans in Puerto Rico.

By Big Tent Democrat

< Hillary Received More Votes Than Any Primary Candidate in History | March to June: Hillary Wins 8, Obama 5 >

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About The Puerto Rico Turnout | 70 comments (70 topical)

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I think it was still a darn good (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by bjorn on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:58:36 PM EST

turnout given they have no vote in the GE and the mainland has been telling them it is over already.

Unprecedented for the winner to loose by these kinds of margins in KY, WestVA, and PR very near the end. I guess this whole race is unprecedented, but I am still proud of Clinton's efforts.

Yep (5.00 / 5) (#5)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:02:15 PM EST

name a race where delegates were awarded to someone who didn't win them.

Unprecedented, all right.


that point will always be the most (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by bjorn on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:03:38 PM EST

nefarious, notorious moment when I look back on this race.


Seeing as both (none / 0) (#7)
by neoliberal on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:05:34 PM EST

Clinton and Obama pledged not to participate in the MI primary, neither could have won any delegates, logically speaking. Unless I have a incorrect interpretation of the word "participate".


You do (5.00 / 8) (#9)
by Steve M on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:06:37 PM EST

thanks for playing.


Oh, the ROOOOOLZ (none / 0) (#11)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:11:17 PM EST

Like the one that said that RBC meetings are supposed to be in public -- not held under the guise of a lunch break....

Those rulz, get it, the ones that are like little fragile glass ornaments made for breaking at the DNC and Obama's desire ;-).


There is a report on Salon that should make some (none / 0) (#62)
by Christy1947 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:38:38 PM EST

here happy about the private lunch break and its consequences. Just posted. According to the article, a vote was taken on the Obama proposal for Michigan, even up on the delegate division, and it won 14-13. Had that one been taken in public, you'd be more unhappy still. Apparently the thought was that the rule of one vote wins on voting was thought not to work for something already so contentious, so they went to the middle choice. Had it won on the public ballot, Clintonistas would be unhappier still.


So (5.00 / 1) (#67)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 07:12:37 PM EST

we should be happy that the DNC apportioned fewer magical delegates than they would have to Obama? We should be happy that instead of giving him everything he wanted, they only gave him almost everything he wanted? and the only reason why they gave him only ALMOST everything he wanted was because had they given him everything he wanted, it would have been more of a public relations nightmare than it already is?

LOL!

Now are we going to hold primaries in 2012, or should we just let the DNC award delegates to their favorite candidate? Elections from here on are a Democrat-instilled banana Republic JOKE. They don't have to vote with dead people anymore, they can simply choose magical vaporware people to vote. LOL!

I'm not a Democrat anymore, so it may not make much difference to me.


: this begs the question (none / 0) (#72)
by CanadianDem on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 11:51:38 AM EST

I'm not a Democrat anymore, so it may not make much difference to me.
then why are you, and others who have taken a similar stance, still here arguing and wanting to vote democratic??
HRC is a democrat you know. Actually a big player and supporter of the DNC, so please reconcile that.

got a link (none / 0) (#66)
by desert dawg on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:49:47 PM EST

on that Salon article?


My understanding is that those votes (none / 0) (#69)
by andgarden on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 07:38:45 PM EST

needed a 2/3 majority. If so, that story means something different than you think it does.


Uh huh (none / 0) (#70)
by Nadai on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 08:13:05 PM EST

You're saying I should be happy because instead of stealing big, Obama only stole small. Somehow, I don't find that a particularly winning point.


If I Were A Suspicious Person, (none / 0) (#50)
by MO Blue on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:49:00 PM EST

a user name of neoconartist would lead me to believe that you are a Republican troll.


As always, this site's analysis is unparalleled (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by ChiTownDenny on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:12:10 PM EST

in the blogosphere. If in fact Hillary gets the 65%-35% in PR as projected, coupled with a) her popular vote win, and b) the 30something delegates Barack won for taking his name off the ballot in MI, a strong argument can still be made for her nomination for the Dem party.

: With 90% of the vote in PR in, (none / 0) (#58)
by ChiTownDenny on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:56:26 PM EST

it looks like 400K voters. Who else predicted that? I reiterate my apprcitation for this site's analysis. And I reiterate my argument for a Hillary nomination.

btd, he is quoting some poll numbers (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:20:23 PM EST

for obama with latino voters in most of the primaries and overall it doesn't look promising. whereas mccain is well liked.

: His (5.00 / 3) (#30)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:29:44 PM EST

problems with latino voters have been obvious for quite a while. Perhaps, since PR is pretty much 100% hispanic it just makes it all the more obvious?

It looks like in a majority of the districts (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by andgarden on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:21:02 PM EST

Hillary is going to get the 4-1 delegate breakdown.

: yeah and about 40 to 45 delegates. (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:26:03 PM EST

of course i am sure btd can comment on this with more authority that i can quote from memory.

: In the 5s (5.00 / 3) (#35)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:33:29 PM EST

to get a 3-1 it is even easier.
she may even get a 5-1 out of San Juan.
This certainly will be a good DELEGATE day for Hillary.

Go to CNN Online (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Andy08 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:26:00 PM EST

EVERYONE GO TO CNN-ONLINE POLITICS AND THE SMALL LINK TO WATCH RALLY LIVE ON THE SIDE

IT IS AMAZNG THE RALLY OF THE PEOPLE WAITING FOR HILLARY. IT IS BREATH-TAKING

THE PEOPLE ARE IN A FULL BLOWN PARTY !!!!!

SEN~ORA PRESIDENTA HILLARY; SE PUEDE SE PUEDE SI SE PUEDE !!!
PUERTO RICO HILLARY HILLARY !!!

si se puede para novembre tambien! (5.00 / 2) (#29)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:29:29 PM EST

A woman is talking (5.00 / 2) (#34)
by Andy08 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:32:34 PM EST

in spanish now in anticipation of Hillary. She is very strongly saying:

Let's go to work so that
Hillary sea la proxima Presidenta de la Nacion mas poderosa del Mundao.
Que VIVA HILLARY CLINTON !!! SI SE PUEDE SI SE PUEDE!!!


: uno persona/uno vote! totas personas (5.00 / 1) (#40)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:36:52 PM EST

en los estados unidos y puerto rico tambien!

i buzzed by there awhile ago (none / 0) (#27)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:27:28 PM EST

and saw brazile sitting there. i said something ugly to myself and kept moving. but i'll go back. thanks


Grading BTD: (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by DaveOinSF on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:35:12 PM EST

BTD predicted:
Big Clinton wins in San Juan, Bamayon, Arecibo
Close Clinton wins in Carolina, Humacao, Mayaguez, Guayama
Obama win in Ponce.

So far:
San Juan, Bamayon and Ponce are Hillary's strongest districts, all at least 70-30 for Hillary.
Her weakest districts are Humacao and Carolina, each less than 65%

I hope that Hillary... (5.00 / 4) (#42)
by p lukasiak on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:38:48 PM EST

I hope that Hillary takes the "unity" message, and slams Obama in the face with it.

Make the point that she is the candidate that is UNITING the party -- her coalition isn't limited by color or income or age -- and that SHE is only candidate that SHE WOULD NEVER DEMAND THAT VOTERS BE TREATED AS ONE HALF AMERICANS,,,and she should take a page out of Jesse Jackson's book, and call her coalition the NEW Rainbow Coalition....

just get in Obama's face

Except for the caucus states, which she claims are (5.00 / 0) (#64)
by Christy1947 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:42:10 PM EST

not states at all. If her call is fifty states not forty eight, then why is her popular vote the votes of only forty six states.


I'm with you Paul. I'm sick of sitting back and (none / 0) (#44)
by Teresa on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:42:11 PM EST

taking it. She won't do it though. The party means to much to her. She and Bill need to retire from politics and work on causes they care about and let the Democratic Party do without them. They'll find out then what a loss that is.


Jeff Toobin on CNN (5.00 / 3) (#47)
by oldpro on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:44:42 PM EST

just said that "in 8 years, Hillary will be 3 years younger than John McCain is now!" (Indicating she could rerun then).

Heh. And in 4 years, she'll be 7 years younger than John McCain is now!

Wise up, media...making way too many assumptions.


: Yeah (5.00 / 2) (#53)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:14:08 PM EST

and she'll still be a woman and the networks will be full of even more misogynists. And Toobin will still be a tool.
Yeah, she has a chance.

Retire from politics??? (none / 0) (#59)
by gyrfalcon on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:23:22 PM EST

With all due respect, that's just nuts. They are politics. Might as well tell them to go roll over and die.


WOW (5.00 / 1) (#48)
by americanincanada on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:45:46 PM EST

They just said that Hillary's margin of victory in PR is the largest margin of victory in PR history.

Uh... (none / 0) (#49)
by swiss473 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:48:45 PM EST

McCain actually got 91% in PR back in February.

Maybe they mean the net popular vote margin of around 125K or so.


: They are talking about margins (5.00 / 1) (#51)
by americanincanada on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:51:11 PM EST

and districts...she is winning everywhere.
They also said that they believe they will give her enough popular vote to maintain the popular vote lead.
They vowed to campaign in the GE for her everywhere, on the mainland, in e-mail, with every PR person in the USA to assure a Clinton victory.
One Person, One Vote...has been said a lot.

she is giving a great speech! (5.00 / 1) (#52)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:00:11 PM EST

she is saying let puerto rico vote for president. si si, hillary!

Based on CNN (5.00 / 1) (#55)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:26:49 PM EST

number, I project turnout at 378,635.

I also predict that Hillary will win approx 130,000 net votes.

: she's up 128,000 at the moment. (none / 0) (#57)
by nycstray on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:55:50 PM EST

Interesting indeed (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:50:24 PM EST

Hillary got massive support, and the race much higher interest, from the statehood people.

Have the machines ever been mobilized... (none / 0) (#2)
by OrangeFur on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:56:45 PM EST

... for a mainland-centric primary election?

Given how late in the season it is, I imagine PR has rarely had an important role before. In fact, they had a caucus scheduled originally, no?

But they ask for a primary (none / 0) (#3)
by Saul on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 03:57:21 PM EST

So if ever there was going to be a time when a record vote was going to happen it would have been in this one. All the Puerto Ricans were chomping at bit to play a role this time. Especially when they hardly ever play a role on who the dem nominee is going to be. This was such a unique moment for them. I don't get it even with how the old machinery worked in the past.

I heard the lines (none / 0) (#8)
by americanincanada on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:06:16 PM EST

were huge in PR at 3pm and that those people were still allowed to vote.

Do we have hard turnout numbers yet?

Turnout (none / 0) (#13)
by zebedee on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:17:50 PM EST

Looks like it might be aqround 270,000 if precincts are roughly equal size. So she will will pick up just under 100k net.

I think the reality is that pop vote and pledged delegate votes are essentially tied. In a straight election even one vote margin may be enough but as far as SD calculations, a small difference may not matter so much except for bragging rights.

Whereas pledged dels and pop vote may be tied, the one metric that is clear is electoral votes, where Hillary leads 308-224 (I believe). This is a huge difference. The pundits and Obama campaign have pooh-poohed this quickly but to me it may be the most significant of all. Or if you look at just marginal states, you get a similar difference.

If Obama had this kind of lead you bet it would have been THE metric that is bandied around. I think Hillary's team need to push this hard now and line up the evidence that counters the attempt to state that the primary winner is no indication of GE performance.

they aren't (none / 0) (#17)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:19:30 PM EST

the biggest precincts are in San Juan, Bayamon and Carolina.


: Yes (none / 0) (#21)
by zebedee on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:21:58 PM EST

..I see that now and a gain of the magic 100,000 sounds better when it's reported

: And San Juan isn't in yet (none / 0) (#39)
by RonK Seattle on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:35:27 PM EST

Big numbers still to come.

With 49% in... (none / 0) (#14)
by OrangeFur on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:18:05 PM EST

The numbers project out to about 327,000 votes, and a 116,000 net gain for Clinton.

These projected numbers have both been climbing as results have come in.

PR Turnout at 531,296? (none / 0) (#15)
by dazedreamer52 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:19:11 PM EST

BTD
I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers but at the Puerto Rican website it says 'Voters in Reported Units - 531,296'

Is my Spanish wrong?

Um I read votes counted 168,000 (none / 0) (#20)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:21:15 PM EST

I think that means... (none / 0) (#22)
by OrangeFur on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:23:20 PM EST

how many total voters there are in the precincts that have reported, or how many votes there'd be if there was 100% turnout.


Total Registered Voters is 2,366,667 (none / 0) (#31)
by dazedreamer52 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:29:59 PM EST

I read it as total voters for PR is 2,366,667 and 168,609 being the total votes counted and allocated between HR and BO. Can anyone help?


: Now is it up to 1,077,587? (none / 0) (#36)
by dazedreamer52 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:34:59 PM EST

From PR Website
I'm confused.
This is what I Think:
1,077,587 Voters Voted Today So Far
168,609 Counted and Allocated Between BO and HR
2,366,667 Total Registered Voters
Can someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Winner Take All 'Per District' Delegate Allocation (none / 0) (#28)
by dazedreamer52 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:28:06 PM EST

I know that the DNC has outlawed 'statewide winner take all primaries'. Does anyone know if it is 'winner take all delegates per district' in Puerto Rico? MSNBC admits that it is allocating delegates arbitrarily. I'm looking at the sample ballot and it looks like:

Specific delegates are named under the candidates name
Voters get to choose which side to pick.

This may possibly mean that each district allocates delegates according to which side wins. I'm not too sure. Can anyone help with this?


: No, it's proportional (none / 0) (#32)
by andgarden on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:31:31 PM EST

geraldo is saying this is a very bad (none / 0) (#16)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:19:12 PM EST

indicator for obama. very bad! 68% for hillary called by fox!

'Kicked Obama's b*tt' wasn't it? (5.00 / 2) (#23)
by nycstray on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:23:50 PM EST

I don't usually like his reporting, but his descriptions of her win were a bit amusing.


: smile, that sums it up nicely! (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:25:06 PM EST

57% in... (none / 0) (#33)
by OrangeFur on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:32:12 PM EST

I'm going to guess total turnout of around 370,000, with Clinton gaining 130,000 net votes. (This isn't based on a strict projection of what's in.)

: that's a nice win! how does that equate (none / 0) (#37)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:35:01 PM EST

with the total vote count versus obama?

Hey, BTD (none / 0) (#41)
by andgarden on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:37:01 PM EST

How is a speech given in English (by Hillary) going to go over?

Fine (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:43:45 PM EST

Statehooders.


: Good point! (none / 0) (#46)
by andgarden on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:44:20 PM EST

if were hillary or obama, i'd learn a basic (none / 0) (#43)
by hellothere on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:39:04 PM EST

speech in spanish for my voters. that would be so well accepted.


BTD Help! Total PR Voters so far 1,771,982 !? (none / 0) (#54)
by dazedreamer52 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:19:05 PM EST

From the Official PR Website

I know the MS has been saying turnout is low, but take a look at the official numbers.

My Spanish is not great but this is what I take from the numbers:

1,771,982 = Number of Voters So Far
281,699 = Number of Votes Counted and allocated to BO or HC
2,366,667 = Total Number of Registered Voters

Can someone tell me if these numbers are wrong and point me to more accurate stats?

p.s. CNN projected numbers are showing 76% of Precincts voting, not 76% of total voters reported

Thanks!

I've been following (none / 0) (#56)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 05:28:52 PM EST

CNN election numbers in every primary and have done calculations.

The turnout will end up being around 375,000 and Hillary will pick up about 130,000 votes.


: Pretty close, w/98 percent reporting (none / 0) (#61)
by Lysis on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:36:28 PM EST

She's picked up close to 140,000 votes, with the about 375k votes in.

Very interesting (none / 0) (#60)
by Steve M on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:34:16 PM EST

Amazing how I can get more pertinent information on this site than in a week of watching CNN.

Extrapolated totals from tables (none / 0) (#63)
by wurman on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:38:58 PM EST

Official results as of 4:36 p.m. (link)

CLINTON
243,542 67.7 percent
OBAMA
112,852

TOTAL VOTOS
TOTAL VOTES
359,742

Unidades Reportadas: 1,653 de 1,786 para un 93 %
Reported Units: 1,653 of 1,786 for a 93 %

San Juan & 3 others are thrashings (none / 0) (#65)
by wurman on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 06:46:22 PM EST

SAN JUAN I
Clinton 30,644 72 %
Obama 11,951 28 %
Pending 207
Blank 25
Total 42,827
Provisional 93

San Juan, Arecibo, Mayaguez & Ponce are nominally 70 percent blowouts for Clinton--about as predicted by Big Tent.

She worked this island so hard (none / 0) (#71)
by nulee on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 09:07:40 PM EST

- frankly, Obama barely tried. Good for her - it was a rout. I don't think BO is a hard worker in the end.