McCain sees Georgian conflict as the ‘first serious crisis’ in post-Cold War era

It’s not like I heard those words used to describe a “little” dustup in the Former Yugoslavia during the early 90s or anything.

He seems very, very old for his chronological age of 72.

And almost all the deterioration seems to have occurred under the stress of campaigning. What damage would the stress of the presidency do?

Good old McCainac. Always looking for more ways to extend both middle fingers to the armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I don’t know if this is a function of age and I don’t care. The man loves him some hyperbole. Everything he comments on must be the most important issue EVER. As a result he frequently sounds certifiable.

Maybe he thinks the cold war only ended this summer?

Seriously, I said “whaaaa??!!!??” out loud to my radio this morning when this news came on. I hate when the news makes me talk out loud to household objects.

Maybe he meant the first Cold War-style crisis since the end of the Cold War.

Which doesn’t account for the EP-3 crisis with China in 2001, which was pretty Cold War-style (though perhaps not “serious”).

I apologize for the length of the commentary from Immanuel Wallerstein I am putting in here, but it completely reveals McCain’s bullpucky for what it is:

“Geopolitical Chess: Background to a Mini-war in the Caucasus ”

The world has been witness this month to a mini-war in the Caucasus , and the rhetoric has been passionate, if largely irrelevant. Geopolitics is a gigantic series of two-player chess games, in which the players seek positional advantage. In these games, it is crucial to know the current rules that govern the moves. Knights are not allowed to move diagonally.

From 1945 to 1989, the principal chess game was that between the United States and the Soviet Union . It was called the Cold War, and the basic rules were called metaphorically ” Yalta .” The most important rule concerned a line that divided Europe into two zones of influence. It was called by Winston Churchill the “Iron Curtain” and ran from Stettin to Trieste . The rule was that, no matter how much turmoil was instigated in Europe by the pawns, there was to be no actual warfare between the United States and the Soviet Union . And at the end of each instance of turmoil, the pieces were to be returned to where they were at the outset. This rule was observed meticulously right up to the collapse of the Communisms in 1989, which was most notably marked by the destruction of the Berlin wall.

It is perfectly true, as everyone observed at the time, that the Yalta rules were abrogated in 1989 and that the game between the United States and (as of 1991) Russia had changed radically. The major problem since then is that the United States misunderstood the new rules of the game. It proclaimed itself, and was proclaimed by many others, the lone superpower. In terms of chess rules, this was interpreted to mean that the United States was free to move about the chessboard as it saw fit, and in particular to transfer former Soviet pawns to its sphere of influence. Under Clinton , and even more spectacularly under George W. Bush, the United States proceeded to play the game this way.

There was only one problem with this: The United States was not the lone superpower; it was no longer even a superpower at all. The end of the Cold War meant that the United States had been demoted from being one of two superpowers to being one strong state in a truly multilateral distribution of real power in the interstate system. Many large countries were now able to play their own chess games without clearing their moves with one of the two erstwhile superpowers. And they began to do so.

Two major geopolitical decisions were made in the Clinton years. First, the United States pushed hard, and more or less successfully, for the incorporation of erstwhile Soviet satellites into NATO membership. These countries were themselves anxious to join, even though the key western European countries – Germany and France – were somewhat reluctant to go down this path. They saw the U.S. maneuver as one aimed in part at them, seeking to limit their newly-acquired freedom of geopolitical action.

The second key U.S. decision was to become an active player in the boundary realignments within the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia . This culminated in a decision to sanction, and enforce with their troops, the de facto secession of Kosovo from Serbia .

Russia, even under Yeltsin, was quite unhappy about both these U.S. actions. However, the political and economic disarray of Russia during the Yeltsin years was such that the most it could do was complain, somewhat feebly it should be added.

The coming to power of George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin was more or less simultaneous. Bush decided to push the lone superpower tactics (the United States can move its pieces as it alone decides) much further than had Clinton . First, Bush in 2001 withdrew from the 1972 U.S.-Soviet Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Then he announced that the United States would not move to ratify two new treaties signed in the Clinton years: the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the agreed changes in the SALT II nuclear disarmament treaty. Then Bush announced that the United States would move forward with its National Missile Defense system.

And of course, Bush invaded Iraq in 2003. As part of this engagement, the United States sought and obtained rights to military bases and overflight rights in the Central Asian republics that formerly were part of the Soviet Union . In addition, the United States promoted the construction of pipelines for Central Asian and Caucasian oil and natural gas that would bypass Russia . And finally, the United States entered into an agreement with Poland and the Czech Republic to establish missile defense sites, ostensibly to guard against Iranian missiles. Russia , however, regarded them as aimed at her.

Putin decided to push back much more effectually than Yeltsin. As a prudent player, however, he moved first to strengthen his home base – restoring effective central authority and reinvigorating the Russian military. At this point, the tides in the world-economy changed, and Russia suddenly became a wealthy and powerful controller not only of oil production but of the natural gas so needed by western European countries.

Putin thereupon began to act. He entered into treaty relationships with China . He maintained close relations with Iran . He began to push the United States out of its Central Asian bases. And he took a very firm stand on the further extension of NATO to two key zones – Ukraine and Georgia .

The breakup of the Soviet Union had led to ethnic secessionist movements in many former republics, including Georgia . When Georgia in 1990 sought to end the autonomous status of its non-Georgian ethnic zones, they promptly proclaimed themselves independent states. They were recognized by no one but Russia guaranteed their de facto autonomy.

The immediate spurs to the current mini-war were twofold. In February, Kosovo formally transformed its de facto autonomy to de jure independence. Its move was supported by and recognized by the United States and many western European countries. Russia warned at the time that the logic of this move applied equally to the de facto secessions in the former Soviet republics. In Georgia , Russia moved immediately, for the first time, to recognize South Ossetian de jure independence in direct response to that of Kosovo.

And in April this year, the United States proposed at the NATO meeting that Georgia and Ukraine be welcomed into a so-called Membership Action Plan. Germany , France , and the United Kingdom all opposed this action, saying it would provoke Russia .

Georgia’s neoliberal and strongly pro-American president, Mikhail Saakashvili, was now desperate. He saw the reassertion of Georgian authority in South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) receding forever. So, he chose a moment of Russian inattention (Putin at the Olympics, Medvedev on vacation) to invade South Ossetia . Of course, the puny South Ossetian military collapsed completely. Saakashvili expected that he would be forcing the hand of the United States (and indeed of Germany and France as well).

Instead, he got an immediate Russian military response, overwhelming the small Georgian army. What he got from George W. Bush was rhetoric. What, after all, could Bush do? The United States was not a superpower. Its armed forces were tied down in two losing wars in the Middle East . And, most important of all, the United States needed Russia far more than Russia needed the United States . Russia ‘s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, pointedly noted in an op-ed in the Financial Times that Russia was a “partner with the west on…the Middle East, Iran and North Korea .”

As for western Europe, Russia essentially controls its gas supplies. It is no accident that it was President Sarkozy of France, not Condoleezza Rice, who negotiated the truce between Georgia and Russia . The truce contained two essential concessions by Georgia . Georgia committed itself to no further use of force in South Ossetia , and the agreement contained no reference to Georgian territorial integrity.

So, Russia emerged far stronger than before. Saakashvili had bet everything he has and was now geopolitically bankrupt. And, as an ironic footnote, Georgia, one of the last U.S. allies in the coalition in Iraq , withdrew all its 2000 troops from Iraq . These troops had been playing a crucial role in Shi’a areas, and would now have to be replaced by U.S. troops, which will have to be withdrawn from other areas.

If one plays geopolitical chess, it is best to know the rules, or one gets out-maneuvered.

by Immanuel Wallerstein

Steve,

Any chance you can also make a McCain confusion list to go along with the McCain flip-flop list?

Tom, thanks for that very informative post. I learned quite a bit.

I used to play chess regularly, and the metaphor seemed quite apt. I’m thinking we might want to start calling any move (or series of moves) geared towards losing a “Bush Gambit”.

This episode makes me wonder: Where are all the Georgian suicide bombers and IED makers?

John McBomb says: “War is bad, mkay?”

I seem to remember “There will be other wars”.

McDipshit!

So I’m going to try to excuse this by suggesting that John Sidney meant this was the first post-Cold War International Crisis involving the Former Soviet Union (hence the reference to the Cold War). All the intervening crises between the collapse of the Soviet Union and now weren’t ‘post Cold War’ becuase they didn’t involve Russia or the ‘Near Aboard’.

Does that work?

Nope?

Didn’t think so.

He is a senile old man being puppeted by idiot Neo-Cons.

If only the corporate media would actually educate the American people to the ‘reality’ of McBush so called ‘foreign policy strength’ … because as it stands now , at least according to the corporate polls, is that the American people think he is stronger than Obama in foreign policy capacity. And that is so of course because of the corporate media telling the American people that is his strength. Welcome to propaganda.

The reality is very, very different is one actually educates oneself to his foreign policy decisions spanning his entire career. A simply example: The Iraq war. In the beginning he said the same shit as Cheney et-all: that the war would be easy, that it would be over in six month, that we would be greeted as liberators, and he totally supported CHALBI to take over Iraq. Just for starters.

He said this is the first SERIOUS crisis since the cold war. That is, It’s the first one involving a country that would be considered a super power like Russia.

All these other countries, they’re tiny, they don’t pose a serious threat.

I agree Chad. What you people seem unable to recognize is that McCain knows what he means and it is up to everyone else to interpret the vague statements properly. So, when he makes a simple statement, such as, “…the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War,” it is up to the reader to add in the necessary contextual meaning and proper nuance to the statement. It also helps if you add in a few additional words and phrases that McCain obviously eliminated for brevity’s sake. Thus, once the proper meaning, understanding of politics and history, and additional words are added to the original statement, can McCain’s statement be properly understood.

I think what he truly meant was that this is that this is the first crisis involving the head state of the former Soviet Union imposing its will and military might upon one of its former states. It is taking the opportunity to undermine the democratic republic of Georgia to annex large portions of the country that are strategically important to the economy of Georgia and is not appropriate despite the initial military engagement of South Ossetia by Georgia. Or somthing along those lines.

If you people would quit criticizing and simply read between the lines, or close your eyes and make up more acceptable words that demonstrated knowledge and understanding of the conflict or the region to replace actual words, then McCain’s statements don’t seem that far off base.

I hope everyone had the chance to see the video ’12 year old girl tells the truth about Georgia’ it is available on line, the reaction of Smith of Fox news is really something when they said who was to blame for the crisis.

Thank you to Post 12 Tom Cleaver for posting:
the commentary from Immanuel Wallerstein
“Geopolitical Chess: Background to a Mini-war in the Caucasus ”
I am always very happy to read a thoughtful intelligent analysis of political situations.

McCain has lost his mental grip on the world situation. Aggression? That would be the aggression by the Republic of Georgia, led by Mihail Saakashvili, against the people of South Ossetia. Mikheil is just a worthless, lying fascist war criminal. He ordered the pre-meditated slaughter of the citizens of South Ossetia with bombings and raids where Georgian tanks ran over people and Georgian soldiers set fire to South Ossetian churches and burned people alive. For more up to date information, see the television news show, Russia Today or visit their web site, http://www.russiatoday.com for more details (note: not easily watched).

So the event on September 11, 2001 WASN’T a serious crisis?

Well, that’s a relief.

Chad said: Do you want all the candidates to spell everything out for you, take you by the hand and tell you exactly what they mean? Good luck with that. Politicians make these statements vague all the time because neither one wants to be pigeon-holed.
Of course I don’t want politicians to explain and spell everything out for me. Hell, I don’t even want them to have even a rudimentary understanding of world politics and international affairs for any period beyond what happened 3 hours ago (that 3-hour historical knowledge should be constantly updated to remove any knowledge of the previous 3 hours). That’s why McCain is so perfect. He doesn’t need to explain anything and we can all fill in the blanks with whatever interpretation we want or makes sense. It’s like a Mad Lib presidency!

What I take from it is that this could turn into something very big, affecting many nations and creating lots of problems.
Agreed. Big problems and bad stuff will happen. And McCain’s vagueness is so imporant in times of crisis.

What happened? A crisis. Something bad. An act of agression.
Why has happened? Historians will tell us.
What will be done? Something.
Why should the U.S. get involved? We are all Georgians.
I don’t want to understand what a president would do. I want to think I know what a president is going to do.

The Cold War effectively ended 19 years ago, and the conflict between Russia and Georgia is the first serious international crisis in that time? — CB

Wasn’t it you, yourself, who directed us to the Daily Show’s clip on the same subject? Jon Stewart teased out the correct answer: Just add “in Europe” and everything becomes clear. See?

Yugoslavia? Well, McCain can be excused for forgetting this one, especially since it’s no longer a single country but a clusterf*ck of little ones nobody can sort out. Besides, after being chastised for mentioning Czechoslovakia he’s not going to get suckered into mentioning Yugoslavia.

oh.
my.
god.

Is this guy for real? He can’t be that senile … or can he?

McCain is not even good at making war. He’s stupid and walks around with his foot in his mouth more than have the sense to not complicate matters …”I would just sit the Sunnis and Shiites down and say stop the bullshit”.

I believe he and his Georgian lobbyist campaign manager along with Rove instigated Georgia to attack Russia for political gain. Now it’s all he can talk about thinking it makes him look tough and serious instead of a complete embarassment. It can easily be demonstrated by his actions that…

McCain would rather start a war than lose an election….proving he does not have the judgment or temperament to be president of the US. He wants to “throw Russia out of the G8”. he does everything to provoke a cold war and is detrimental to World Peace. Take a good look at how he is trying to gain politically from this conflict by trying to make it bigger and more serious than it is. I’ll say it again because it’s true and should cost him the election;
McCAIN WOULD RATHER START A WAR THAN LOSE AN ELECTION.

btw…he’s no good at war either…just look at his military record…it stinks…bottom of his class womanizing hot head screw up brat bailed out over and over by his family. People ignore this truth at their own peril. Not a leader of men…he would get them all captured or killed. He’s not teachable either…can’t even understand how the internet works. Just pathetic

Er, and what exactly is Obama’s plan? Let Russia rebuild the Soviet Union??

Sorry, this election has come down to a choice of the lessor of two evils, and I’m afraid, despite his verbal gaffs while millions watch on live TV (could YOU stand up in front of all those cameras and make foreign policy statements?), McCain still has a far far greater grasp of the world today, and more important, the world of “yesterday” and how it effects decisions that we make today, than Obama never bothered to learn about.

And, btw, you ask “what about Afghanistan”. Well, that’s what he was talking about when he said “since 9/11”, that being the event that set the war in Afghanistan off. Further, if we had found out instead that, say, Iran/Hezbollah had been responsible for those attacks, it might well have resulted in a far far more serious war than Afghanistan and Iraq combined. The Iranians at least have alittle steel (backbone, nerve) in their military, while Saddam’s, being largely a support mechanism for a cult of personality that he never dared inspect during live training exercises for fear of assassination, was a hollow shell that we crumpled with ease.

Remember that our casualties were NOT primarily inflicted as a result of any effort by Saddam’s military, but rather by the mere presence of American troops within a nation where Islamic terrorists could fit into the population, speak the language, and attack with far more ease than they could in the United States. They were embraced at first by the Sunni population who believed the US would leave them to be slaughtered by the Shi’ia militias (which WOULD have happened had we left right after we got Saddam, leaving Iran to pick up the spoils), but now that we’ve proven we want a STABLE Iraqi government made up of all three major groups, they turned on them. So now they’re just about crushed in Iraq, and they’re moving to Pakistan since that is now the new “safe haven” for their lot. That’s fine as Arabs, Chechyns, etc, will stick out like sore thumbs when they move into Afghanistan, and really aren’t highly regarded there by the locals who will probably be more willing to sell them out than they would their fellow Pastun tribesman.

Now, if we had to fight the RUSSIANS, the casualties we’ve suffered so far in the Iraq conflict and the occupation of Afghanistan are going to seem like NOTHING. I joined the military when things were looking darkest in late 1979, fully aware that if current policies continued the Soviet Union would have been in Western Europe by the mid 80’s. I even had an evacuation plan if my tank were destroyed and my unit unable to reassemble. We would have lost TENS of thousands of American lives in a few days . . . a situation that Russia has resurrected by their occupation of Georgia, an occupation that is NOTHING like our occupation of Iraq, given that they’re allowing their Ossetian and other allies free access to Georgian military supplies, and allowing them to loot and burn at will in places where they pass.

No doubt, Georgia started it, and if the Russians hadn’t crossed the border I’d say the Georgians deserved everything they got, but then again, they DID cross the border, and now this is far far from the “peacekeeping” mission they claimed to be on in the first place.

In short, this is the FIRST even since 9/11 that has the POTENTIAL to start a major world war with potential exchange of at least tactical atomic weapons. THAT makes it the first significant conflict since that attack on our soil and our successful attempts to determine who was responsible.

By the way, I really like your blog’s name. It’s entirely appropriate. I wonder how many people appreciate the humor in it.

-Steve

p.s. petorado : Just because he’s a politician doesn’t make you immune from libel laws.

If McWrinkledoldman were elected, the WH would need to be converted to a hospice to accomodate the special needs of McCorpse.

No one has mentioned his mangling of the name Abkhazia at the end of the clip. He pronounces it Ab-sky-a.

I believe ‘skya’ is Russian for street. I may be wrong on the definition, but when I was there I saw a lot of streets named “somethingskya”

Dolt!

This is the best the gop could come up with? Oh yeah, (Romney, Hagabee, Rudy, Freddie, it is. And if you look at past gop presidents since Eisenhower, oh yeah it is.

And ECONOMICS is his weak spot????

Anyone who missed Tom Cleaver’s history primer @12 is encouraged to review it…
Great piece.

I had always figured North Korea would be the one taking advantage of our being bogged down in a two front war.
Now it seems obvious.