tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159Fri, 24 May 2013 05:11:14 +0000Insulin Shocker at MannKind CorpInvestors often overlook SEC filings, and it is the job of the 10Q Detective to dig through businesses’ 8-K and 10-Q SEC filings, looking for financial statement ‘soft spots,'(depreciation policies, warranty reserves, and restructuring charges, etc.)that may materially impact Quality of Earnings.http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)Blogger722125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-4468269044736066503Fri, 24 May 2013 05:11:00 +00002013-05-24T01:11:14.747-04:00 Investors might want to rethink their enthusiasm for Live Nation (LYV-$13.78). To be sure, this new embrace of all-things digital has helped the company deliver on growth in ticket sales and operating results – ticketing profits have more than doubled since 2010, coming in at $122.8 million last year. But the live concert part of the equation continues to underperform:  The company makes http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/05/online-ticketing-upstarts-challenge.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-2581570189913689395Sat, 04 May 2013 04:07:00 +00002013-05-04T00:07:10.496-04:00 Given what might be peak pricing, it’s hard to fathom why certain natural gas companies have chosen not to lock in more contracted natural gas hedges. With the EIA forecasting an average price of $3.41 and $3.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, is the financial health of exploration companies with weak hedge books, such as Comstock Resources (CRK-$15.55http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/05/how-vulnerable-are-comstock-resources.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-4174792898860823007Thu, 25 Apr 2013 00:58:00 +00002013-04-24T21:00:44.373-04:00 Energy exploration companies are shifting drilling toward resources with greater potential for oil and natural-gas liquids. Nonetheless, investors willing to stick with more junior, natural gas plays could be handsomely rewarded in coming years, as drilling efficiency improvements are dramatically lowering breakeven prices – leading to improvements in operating margins. The cost of capitalhttp://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/04/favorable-drilling-costs-natural-gas.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-7146929828328674036Thu, 25 Apr 2013 00:39:00 +00002013-04-24T20:39:01.288-04:00 A DISH Network (DISH-$39.26) – Sprint Nextel (S-$7.09) deal offers multiple venues for revenue growth. DISH could offer subscribers triple-play services (high-speed internet, phone, and video) by merging its own satellite network with Sprint’s wireless network. In terms of cross-selling – excluding overlap – there is the equivalent of 17 million Sprint households that could be targeted for http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/04/credit-concerns-with-dish-sprint-nextel.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-7746704249918312051Thu, 25 Apr 2013 00:06:00 +00002013-04-24T20:07:22.861-04:00 With the $41 billion acquisition of XTO Energy back in 2010, Exxon Mobil (XOM-$89.43) overnight became the largest producer of natural gas in North America, catapulting beyond erstwhile leader Chesapeake Energy (CHK-$19.29) and other big players, like ConocoPhillips (COP-$58.26), Southwestern Energy (SWN-$34.97) and Anadarko (APC-$83.32). In 2012, proved reserves and production totaled 14.47 http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/04/exxon-mobil-looks-to-favorable-future.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-8670153490838604783Tue, 26 Mar 2013 02:05:00 +00002013-03-25T22:05:44.805-04:00 In 2012, Samsung (SSNLF) and Apple (APPL-$463.58) remained the dominant OEMs in the smartphone market, with the two companies accounting for 29% and 20%, respectively, of global shipments, up from 20% and 19% in 2011, according to IHS iSupply. Looking ahead, some analysts have expressed concerns that Samsung, the world’s largest maker of mobile phones, televisions and computer memory chips, http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/03/apples-growing-dependence-on-iphones.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-5463323091443254134Tue, 26 Mar 2013 00:34:00 +00002013-03-25T20:34:33.084-04:00 Year-to-date, the share price of Duke Energy (DUK-$70.28) has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 180 basis points, posting a total return of 8.31%. However, at current prices the stock looks fairly valued, based on PE ratio, trading at a premium to other large-cap, regulated utilities, such as The Southern Company (SO), American Electric Power (AEP), and Consolidated Edison (ED). What, http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/03/will-duke-energys-dividend-get-nuked.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-67780911743844323Wed, 27 Feb 2013 20:51:00 +00002013-02-27T15:51:55.673-05:00 “Bait the hook well; this fish will bite,” quipped Shakespeare’s Claudio in the playwright’s Much Ado About Nothing. To the contrary, investor shouldn’t bite – fears that the recent U.S. regulatory approval of Takeda’s Nesina (alogliptin) will mute the growth of Merck's (MRK-$43.10) Januvia franchise are unfounded. The Japanese drug maker’s DPP-4 inhibitor is attempting to launch on a crowded http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/02/peak-sales-of-mercks-januvia-will-hit.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-1136016356098056656Thu, 14 Feb 2013 01:17:00 +00002013-02-13T20:17:53.299-05:00 In terms of megawatt shipment volumes, Suntech Power Holdings (STP-$1.50) is the number three supplier of PV modules, according to analytics firm NPD Solarbuzz. Unlike Arizona-based, thin-film PV module maker First Solar (FSLR-$32.45) and Chinese competitors, such as vertically-integrated crystalline silicon (c-Si) manufacturers Jinko Solar (JKS-$8.93) and JA Solar (JASO-$5.66) –NPD Solarbuzz http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/02/suntech-power-too-much-capacity-too.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-9043542523172701036Tue, 05 Feb 2013 02:04:00 +00002013-02-04T21:07:30.404-05:00 Concentration of production and reserve assets in such unstable markets as North Africa and the sub-Sahara means operating profitability of certain energy companies could be adversely impacted in the event of another jihadist attack. Drillers with significant hydrocarbon reserves vulnerable to disruptions in Libya, Egypt, and Nigeria include energy majors Eni SpA (E-$48.30) and Total SA (TOT-http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/02/energy-majors-vulnerable-to-terror.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-5072167134564291431Fri, 01 Feb 2013 01:20:00 +00002013-01-31T20:25:52.287-05:00 Like other U.S. natural gas producers, EOG Resources (EOG-$125.03) responded in recent years to slumping natural gas prices by spending heavily to lease unconventional oil plays. Although EOG invested more than $16 billion in just the last three years to acquire and develop shale assets, such as Eagle Ford and Permian Basin in Texas and Bakken acreage in North Dakota, evidence suggests the http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/01/eog-resources-benefits-from-early-mover.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-615596457396803095Fri, 25 Jan 2013 04:43:00 +00002013-01-24T23:43:31.632-05:00 Fears of an inevitable bankruptcy filing by Trina Solar (TSL-$5.02) are being catalyzed by the necessary refinancing of $778 million in short-term debt and irrational musings that $14 billion in off-balance sheet liabilities will need to be reclassified back on the balance sheet as debt. Contrary to the hysteria being spread by Chicken Little and her bearish short-sellers, the sky is not http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/01/sky-is-not-falling-at-trina-solar.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-7427300641096135889Wed, 23 Jan 2013 02:34:00 +00002013-01-22T21:34:05.573-05:00 Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE-$2.95) is aggressively looking to achieve cost savings through vertical integration and technological improvements, from lower energy consumption in ingot casting, water recycling, and reduced waste in wafer yields to higher module efficiencies. In third-quarter 2012, the company brought non-silicon costs down to $0.53 per watt, from $0.66 per watt last year. http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/01/module-costs-not-falling-fast-enough-at.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-2649353473493230769Mon, 14 Jan 2013 08:05:00 +00002013-01-14T03:06:07.672-05:00 Going forward, SunPower (SPWR-$8.19) hopes to replicate the success of its Antelope Valley project with contract wins for utility-scale projects in new markets, from Australia to the Middle East and Asia, in particular Japan and mainland China. To date, however, its global footprint is nondescript: In the first nine months of 2012, North America and Europe accounted for 68% and 23% of total http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/01/warren-buffet-aside-putting-chill-in.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-5670899355391942625Fri, 11 Jan 2013 03:29:00 +00002013-01-10T22:31:12.959-05:00 Halozyme (HALO-$7.40) gained more than $147 million in market capitalization on investor excitement that sales from the Pfizer (PFE) collaboration could total $507 million. However, this is an earn-out deal, and most of these millions will only show up on the income statement if – and only if – future development, regulatory and sales-based milestones are reached. Continue Reading at YChartshttp://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/01/is-pfizer-deal-cure-all-for-halozyme.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-6525438563396419189Wed, 02 Jan 2013 20:48:00 +00002013-01-02T15:49:14.301-05:00 Human behavior as it is – and irrespective of one’s position on gun control – 2013 will likely be a very profitable year for Smith & Wesson (SWHC-$8.15) shareholders. Nonetheless, given the headlining visibility and public disgust over the paroxysmal spate of massacres still fresh in our collective memory (from the 1999 shootings at Columbine High to the crazed gunman slaughtering moviegoers http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2013/01/crazies-good-for-business-at-smith.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-4307782393548264458Wed, 26 Dec 2012 03:51:00 +00002012-12-25T22:51:39.986-05:00 Despite the uncertainty surrounding Davy Jones and other ultra-deep wells, Freeport (FCX-$33.50) hasn’t shut out McMoRan Exploration (MMR-$15.69) investors completely. In addition to the $14.75 cash offer per share, the metals miner will issue 1.15 units of a royalty trust that will make payments – should any of McMoRan's existing ultra-deep exploration properties (in development) actually http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/12/mcmoran-exploration-stockholders-take.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-6951440878997910343Wed, 19 Dec 2012 02:25:00 +00002012-12-18T21:26:38.899-05:00 Chicago-based Groupon (GRPN-$5.01) remains a coupon-driven business, just one of many available to online shoppers. Further, a growing number of analytical and survey-based studies report disillusionment with the alleged effectiveness of coupon promotions. In particular, merchants are questioning the long-term profitability of daily coupon ventures, as a low percentage of customers spend http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/12/is-google-in-need-of-groupon-coupon.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-401589331773997207Tue, 11 Dec 2012 02:56:00 +00002012-12-10T21:58:13.406-05:00 Contrary to management’s optimistic guidance, an assessment of Breitburn Energy Partners' (BBEP-$18.18) recent financials strongly suggests the oil & gas MLP cannot continue to simultaneously fund day-to-day operations, cap-ex, interest payments and dividend distributions with cash flow from its operations. Fundamental weaknesses include falling net income and free cash flow, lower return on http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/12/contrary-to-managements-optimistic.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-2604801355929997118Wed, 05 Dec 2012 01:32:00 +00002012-12-04T20:32:49.782-05:00 During Paul Otellini’s tenure as CEO - from the second quarter of 2005 through the third quarter of 2012 – there is no denying Intel (INTC-$19.50) achieved notable financial successes: cash generated from operations of $107 billion; annual revenue growth from $38.8 billion to $54 billion; and, cash dividend payments totaled $23.5 billion. Digging deeper into the storied legacy of Paul http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/12/intel-stockholders-lose-but-otellini.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-2903616495520767303Wed, 28 Nov 2012 02:30:00 +00002012-11-27T21:32:16.003-05:00 The Vaccines and Related Biological Products board voted its confidence in the immunogenicity of Dynavax's (DVAX-$2.44) Heplisav by a 13 – 1 vote; however, the committee said in an 8 – 5 decision, with one abstention, that it could not recommend the vaccine for approval to the FDA due to insufficient clinical safety data, especially in certain minority groups. To ask Dynavax – or any companyhttp://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/11/overreaction-to-fda-dynavax-hbv-decision.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-1604509692800632186Mon, 19 Nov 2012 08:38:00 +00002012-11-19T03:38:01.891-05:00 Though Kayak Software (KYAK-$39.68) is looking to move beyond the meta-search business, its business model is tethered to the “hunt.” In fact, the loss of any airline ticket search business would prove material to Kayak. The company derives 25% of sales from airfare searches. Moreover, management has previously stated in regulatory filings that “a significant number of travelers who use (our) http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/11/priceline-paddles-upstream-with-kayak.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-3267028656368422798Wed, 14 Nov 2012 03:03:00 +00002012-11-13T22:03:16.661-05:00 Unlike past proxy battles, Icahn’s $168.9 million invested in Netflix (NFLX-$79.60) is a highly leveraged bet. He controls his stake principally through in-the-money call options: Of 4.7 million shares “bought” in the past 60 days, almost 4.3 million (90%) were two-year call options (at $36.05 a share) purchased at premiums ranging from $18.94 to $24.78 per contract, which expire on http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/11/carl-icahn-netflix-tomb-raider-or-savior.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-2882701211135583011Tue, 06 Nov 2012 19:12:00 +00002012-11-06T14:12:18.567-05:00 Although Monster Beverage’s (MNST-$45.50) net sales in the second quarter grew by 28.2% to $592.6 million, gross profit fell 100 basis points to 51.8% due to a 31.9% increase in promotional allowances. Given the frenzied elbowing for domestic share, gross margins at Monster in coming quarters will likely decelerate further. Although management will deny it, recent adverse publicity due to http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/11/monster-beverages-stock-needs-caffeine.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19852159.post-6427275026046361300Tue, 30 Oct 2012 01:12:00 +00002012-10-29T21:13:14.089-04:00 Both Workday (WDAY-$50.00) co-CEOs Duffield and Bhusri have had success building and selling software companies during the past twenty years, culminating in the January 2005 sale of PeopleSoft, the world’s second-largest application software company, to Oracle (ORCL) for $10.3 billion. As of September 2012, the 72-year old Duffield had an estimated net worth of $2.1 billion, ranking him 221 http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-much-is-enough-for-workdays-duffield.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (David J. Phillips)0