11-on-11

NCAA Bracket Rants: Did MTSU and St. Mary's Deserve Bids

2013-03-19T00:46:00.001-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Did MTSU, St. Mary's, LaSalle, and Boise St. Deserve Bids?

MTSU- MTSU did not deserve to receive a bid. The Blue Raiders dominated the Sun Belt this season losing just two games at a decent Arkanasas St. team in OT and in the conference tourney to FIU. The Sun Belt, however, had a down year with a strong Denver team leaving to join the WAC. There were other teams that posted similar records in better conferences, like both LaTech and the previously mentioned Denver squad from a solid WAC conference, that did not receive consideration for an at-large bid. So why Middle Tennessee? That's a good question that I can't answer. They played 5 solid teams during the non-conference schedule: Florida, UCF, Akron, Ole Miss, and Belmont. They were blown out by Florida and Belmont, lost in OT to Akron, and beat Ole Miss and UCF. This means they beat two tourney teams this year in Ole Miss and the mediocre Western Kentucky squad that stole their Sun Belt bid. Mid-majors deserve a chance, but they need to accomplish more during their season than simply crushing bottom-feeders.

St. Mary's- In past seasons, St. Mary's has failed to receive at-large bids to the tourney because of their traditionally soft non-conference schedule. This year, their schedule was still soft, but they managed to receive a bid they didn't deserve. The Gaels have a strong squad, but their wins just don't stack up when compared to those of Tennessee and UVA. Their best wins this season came against Creighton, Utah St. (before injuries killed their season), and BYU twice. They also lost non-conference games to good, not great, Pacific, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa teams. If this St. Mary's team played any of their squads from the last 5 years, they would probably lose. So the timing of this bid considering their lack of quality wins is curious. Like MTSU, the committee seemed to award beating mediocre teams and amassing high win totals over beating quality.

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NCAA Bracket Rants: Maryland, Tennessee, and Virginia Left Out of the Tourney

2013-03-18T11:47:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Maryland, Virginia, and Tennessee left out of the draw-

Maryland- As a Maryland grad, the Terps deserved to miss the tournament. Outside of their 2 wins over Duke, MD only defeated one tourney team (NC St.). They also lost to a fellow bubble team in UVA twice this year. Their soft non-conference schedule hurt their cause dramatically, and the Terps were not helped by their strongest non-conference foe Kentucky looking mediocre for most of the year. They also were unfortunate to draw a soft Northwestern squad in the ACC/Big Ten challenge. When I asked Mark Turgeon when I ran into him this year at Rio Grande in Bethesda, MD about the soft non-conference scheduling, he said they purposefully kept the schedule soft because most of the scheduling was done before he signed several key recruits. In other words, they wanted the schedule soft because he was unsure how good the team would be this year. Expect a tougher non-conference schedule next year and their first NCAA tourney bid in his tenure.

Virginia- Virginia deserved to be in this tourney based on how they played later in the season. UVA accomplished much more in conference than MD, but was essentially doomed by some head-scratching non-conference losses. The Cavs went 0-3 this year against Colonial teams! They lost early to both George Mason and Delaware and mid-season to ODU. Interestingly, this was universally considered a terrible year for the CAA with VCU leaving for the A-10 and perennial powerhouse ODU (who defeated UVA) going 5-25! UVA posted great non-conference wins over fellow bubble team Tennessee and at a solid Wisconsin team, but the Colonial losses tarnished their non-conference results. In conference, they went 11-7 and posted two wins over Maryland and wins over NC St., UNC, and Duke. If you take out the first 3 games of the season, Virginia is a tourney team. The committee gave too much weight to the early losses to Delaware and George Mason. Remember, even Miami lost to Florida Gulf-Coast early in the year. Teams can start off the year slowly and still be among the best 68 teams in the nation.

Tennessee- Unlike Maryland, Tennessee played a brutal non-conference schedule and deserved to be rewarded with a trip to the tourney. Of their 12 losses, only 5 came against non-tourney teams (2 to UGA, 2 to Bama, and 1 to Ark) and even those losses weren't bad. UGA was considered a "bad loss" by ESPN when they showed the Vols tourney resume, but UGA played much better basketball in the 2nd-half of the season. In fact, I cashed several betting tickets supporting Georgia in their late-season surge. These losses, however, probably unfairly doomed the Vols tourney chances. One could point to the Vols wins and say there was a lack of quality, but the committee demonstrated by including St. Mary's and MTSU that having a lack of quality wins is not important in their decision-making process. Tennessee's quality wins over Florida, Kentucky, Mizzou, Wichita, Xavier, and UMass, while slightly lacking, put the wins of these aforementioned teams to shame. To compare, MTSU's most impressive wins this year came against UCF and Ole Miss, and their domination of the Sun Belt came in a down year for the conference following the departure of a strong Denver team for the WAC. Although I support mid-major teams getting an opportunity to prove themselves, there is a glaring problem with including MTSU and leaving Tennessee out when you compare their results side-by-side.

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Rants from Last Night: Boldin Traded to 49ers for Basically Nothing, Melo Back from Injury and Knicks get Pummeled, Iona -4 is the Gambling Bad Beat of the Year

2013-03-12T20:32:00.002-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Monday March 11th

Joe Flacco and former teammate Anquan Boldin

Ravens trade Boldin to 49ers for a Bag of Peanuts- Anyone who watched the Ravens playoff run understands the value Boldin added to their offensive unit this season. When Flacco had nowhere to go with the football, he would throw it up for grabs to Boldin because he rightfully trusted that Boldin would either use his uncanny strength to come down with the football or bat the ball away. Flacco himself supported Boldin in his contract dispute and hoped for Anquan to return. Asking Boldin to take a pay cut is one thing, but for the Ravens to quickly unload him for just a 6th-round pick after he refused (while he was in Africa on a relief effort for that matter) is absolute lunacy. They received no value for a well-regarded player with high value following a Super Bowl run where he popped on film. This is a guy Joe Flacco trusted enough to lob the ball to when nobody was open. Now Flacco no longer has his safety valve, and that can make a huge difference for a QB's confidence level. Now Flacco must find somewhere else to go when the under duress. This trade could cost the Ravens more than just Boldin. They could lose Flacco's confidence and happiness as well.

Update: Melo Returns and Knicks get Throttled- Carmelo Anthony left the Cavs game last Monday with his team down 22 in the 2nd quarter. After he left, the Knicks rallied to win by 5. In fact, the Knicks had outscored their opponents by 65 points since he left that game (3-1 record) with their only loss coming by 1 to a strong Thunder team. Melo returned to the lineup Monday against Golden State and the Knicks got crushed by the Warriors 92-63. Granted, the Warriors welcomed David Lee back to the lineup in a huge home game, but losing by 29 is unacceptable. Melo led the team with 34 minutes played, shot just 4-15 from the field, and the Knicks were -29 (the exact Margin the Knicks lost by) while he was on the floor. Plus/Minus is a complicated stat with many factors at play (fellow teammates on the court, opponents on the floor, etc.), but a -29 is dreadful no matter how you look at it. The Knicks need to limit his minutes, plain and simple. His role should be that of a solid 6th man who can provide an offensive spark off the bench. His defense is simply to poor to play him 30+ minutes a game.

Iona -4 is the Gambling Bad Beat of the Year- Put anyone who took Iona -4 last night on suicide watch today. Iona was up 8 over Manhattan with 6.2 seconds left, then read this link from Beyond the Bets to see what happened next. Truly a terrible beat.

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Rants from Last Night: ESPN's Latin Night is terrible, Michigan's FT Issues, and Derrick Rose's Unneccessarily Long Rehab

2013-03-11T18:37:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Sunday March 11th

Kobe Bryant and Lebron James in their Latin Night Unis

ESPN's Latin Night or "Noche Latina" is Infuriating- Does anyone else hate this program? Essentially, ESPN and the NBA are trying to market games to the Hispanic community, but there are so many annoying elements. First, they change the names on each teams' jerseys and on ESPN's bottom line to some stupid version of their name in Spanish. For example, the Miami Heat become "El Heat" and the LA Lakers become "Los Lakers." Secondly, they call in Latin Night, yet it lasts an entire month. How about just calling it latin month so someone like me isn't watching all week saying, "wait, wasn't it Latin Night two nights ago?" Lastly, every game score on the ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU bottom line involving Latin Night is followed by a long disclaimer explaining how the game is part of Latin Night, thus slowing down their score updates and wasting everyone's time. The idea to celebrate Hispanic culture for a day, a week, or even a month is terrific, but ESPN does a horrible job marketing it. Like most everything else they do, it comes off as cheesy and forced. America, and more specifically the Hispanic community, deserves better than this shamelessly self-promoting, poorly-conceived "Noche Latina."

Michigan's Trey Burke

Michigan can't make clutch Free Throws or Rebound- My beloved Wolverines blew a late lead (which they were fortunate to have to begin with) when Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke missed the front-end of 1-and-1 free throws on back-to-back possessions to relinquish a 5-point lead with under 1 minute remaining. Both free throw misses occurred with every other Michigan player back on the other end of the court, which is a foolish strategy I've noticed frequently this season in College Basketball. To start, you are allowing the other team to grab an uncontested rebound on any miss. Burke's miss hit the rim strongly and bounded back and to the left for what would have been a highly contested rebound available for either team. In addition, Burke and Hardaway are accustomed to shooting with the foul lane full of bodies. In a pressure situation, why are you changing the situation and adding stress for your players? It makes absolutely no sense, and I guarantee players shoot a lower percentage on free throws (would love anyone who can find the #'s to send them to me) in crunch time when their teammates are back on defense as opposed to beside the lane.

Beyond the late FT issues, Michigan can't rebound! If you get out-rebounded by 21, you are lucky to be in the game, plain and simple. Indiana frequently missed first shot opportunities, but grabbed a whopping 19 offensive rebounds. To be fair, Michigan plays a guard-heavy, ball-handling lineup in order to avoid turnovers (+8 vs Indiana) at the expense of their rebounding, but adjustments must be made to this strategy if the rebounding margin gets so out of hand. Here is a write-up of the game by Jeff Fogle on his Stat Intelligence blog that perfectly explains how Michigan was fortunate to hit 3's just to remain in the game, and how this bodes for them in the future. I've personally written them off for the NCAA tourney, but I hope I'm wrong.

Derrick Rose in street clothes...shocker

Derrick Rose's ~~Vagina~~ Hamstring hurts, delaying his return- Derrick Rose is delaying his return from an ACL tear because his hamstrings are "on fire" after workouts. He's been medically cleared for full contact for a month now, yet he remains on the sidelines despite his team's 7-11 record since the beginning of February. I would understand if he was playing limited minutes citing some discomfort in his repaired ACL, but he's talking about his hamstrings bothering him AFTER workouts. Did he ever think his hamstrings might be "on fire" because he's been sitting on his ass for 10 months? Shut up and get back on the court. Maybe then you'll be able to workout without your Vagina, I mean Hamstring bothering you. Grow a pair, and play a few minutes every night for your team.

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Rants from Last Night: What you Missed

2013-03-10T13:45:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Saturday March 9th

Melo and Amare would probably be more helpful
on the Sesame Street squad than the Knicks

Knicks cruise without Melo and Amare- The Knicks spanked the Jazz last night without their two most high-profile and most overrated players. The remaining Knicks held the Jazz to 84 points on 38.5% shooting, allowing just 38 points in the first half. This trend of improved defensive effort without Melo or Amare in the lineup has been noted over the past few seasons, but it is worth reiterating. The Knicks are simply a better team without them, and imagine the salary cap space they would have if these two weren't under contract. The true star of the Knicks is Tyson Chandler, who dominates defensively and facilitates his teammates offensively. With Amare's latest injury looking long-term, the Knicks will easily wrap up the Atlantic division and earn a top 3 seed in the East.

Gonzaga survives 1st-half scare, still doesn't deserve a #1 seed- The Zags pulled away late to beat a dreadful Loyola-Marymount team late last night. The Zags have played exactly 3 legit teams since New Year's (Butler, St. Mary's and BYU), yet Dick Vitale and Joe Lunardi seem to think they deserve a #1 seed. The West Coast Conference is incredibly soft this year (10th best in conference RPI), and the Zags have padded their wins based on this softness alone. This does not mean they can't have success in the tourney, but they shouldn't be rewarded for playing in an easy conference. Their non-conference wins over Baylor, Oklahoma St. (on the road), Kansas St., Davidson, and Oklahoma are impressive, but not enough alone to warrant a #1 seed. Give them a 3 or 4 seed this year.

Murray St. Head Coach Steve Prohm

Poor coaching and major choking dooms Murray St. in late loss to Belmont- Up 58-51 with 2 minutes left against Belmont, Murray St. looked poised to return to the NCAA tourney once again this year, but they forgot to finish the game. Belmont cut the lead to 2 with 1 min left, but the Racers answered with two free throws to put them up 62-58 with 48 seconds left. Belmont hits a jumper with 37 seconds remaining to cut the lead back to two. Here's where terrible coaching took over for the Racers. Belmont obviously must foul or be left with 2 seconds on the clock to tie the game, yet head coach Steve Prohm does not choose to get his best free throw shooters on the court. He keeps Ed Daniel on the court, whose 61.1 free throw % ranks 10th on the team! Belmont's pressure forces a pass to Daniel and, shocker, he misses both free throws. An inexcusable mistake by Prohm, and I hope Murray St. fans are questioning this poor decision-making today that allowed Belmont to force overtime.

Check back tomorrow for more rants.

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Who Deserves to Win the Major NFL Awards

2013-02-02T12:42:00.000-05:00

by John Huffstetler

With the NFL Honors Awards tonight, much debate surrounds the top awards to be presented. With that in mind, here's who deserves to win (not who will win) the major awards that will be given out tonight from New Orleans.

NFL MVP

Tom Brady- Choosing between Brady and Peyton Manning this season is almost impossible. They have incredibly similar statistics in yards (4,827 to 4,659 Brady), TD's (37 to 34 Manning), and INT's (8 to 11 Brady), but I will give the slight edge to Brady because the Patriots played a more difficult schedule than the Broncos this year. Manning's Broncos had the 2nd worst strength of victory (.385) among all playoff teams this season. In fact, only 6 teams in the entire league had a worse SOV, meaning Manning was beating up on mainly inept bottom-feeding teams. So what about Adrian Peterson? No chance. As I wrote in a previous article, a running back should never win MVP because it is not a valuable position. Running Backs are largely the product of an effective offensive line, and the Vikings offensive line was ranked 3rd in the league (according to Pro Football Focus). I would vote for Brady, Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Griffin III, and Matt Ryan over Peterson without hesitation. His remarkable rehab deserves attention (he should win Comeback Player of the Year), but awarding him MVP because of his amazing story would be a travesty.

Defensive Player of the Year

J.J. Watt- There are several worthy candidates here, but no one had a disruptive effect comparable to Watt. Despite critical injuries to the LB corps, the Texans finished in the top 10 in both yards and points allowed in large part because of his ability to disrupt the QB. He led the league in sacks with 20.5, followed closely behind by fellow contenders Aldon Smith (19.5) and Von Miller (18.5). What dramatically separates Watt from Smith and Miller, however, is his uncanny ability to deflect pass attempts at the line. He was tied for 10th in the league with 16 passes defensed, which is absurd for a defensive lineman. In fact, he's the only non-secondary player in the top 30 in the league. By comparison, Smith had 1 and Miller had 2. He also recorded more tackles than both Miller and Smith, despite the fact that LB's typically record more tackles than lineman. The only other worthy candidate is Charles Tillman because of his amazing ability to separate runners from the football this year. His 10 forced fumbles easily led the league, and he also recorded 3 Ints, 85 tackles, and 16 passes defensed. He would be my second choice for DPOY, but Watt's sack and passes defensed numbers are too impressive to ignore.

Rookie of the Year

Robert Griffin III- When was the last time there were 3 rookies so deserving of this award all from the QB position? It is a shame that of Wilson, Luck, and Griffin, 2 must lose this award. All 3 players turned around their teams in leading them to the playoffs while putting up terrific numbers. Griffin, however, separated himself from Luck and Wilson in several key ways. First, one would expect a rookie QB to make mistakes and throw several ints, but Griffin rarely did. His 5 Ints led the entire league among QB's with more than 2,000 yards. Wilson had a respectable 10 Ints, but Luck tied for 3rd in the league in most Ints with 18. Griffin's 65.6 comp pct was 4th in the NFL and Wilson was 8th at 64.1, while Luck completed a routine 54.1% of passes. These two stats alone eliminate Luck. When then taken head-to-head, Griffin edges Wilson in every major passing category while also gaining more yards on the ground (815 to 489) and scoring more rushing TD's (7 to 4). This award should be a no-brainer. Griffin had the best rookie campaign for a QB in my lifetime and deserves to hoist the trophy.

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Angry Rant: Adrian Peterson Does NOT Deserve to be NFL MVP

2013-01-17T12:47:00.000-05:00

by John Huffstetler

To start, no running back ever deserves to win the MVP. Adrian Peterson had a terrific season (for a running back). He almost broke the single season rushing record and rebounded from a horrific knee injury on the atrocious dirt at FedEx Field (wait, that sounds familiar) to become one of the greatest stories of injury rehabilitation in pro sports history. As a result, he is overly credited with Minnesota's amazing turnaround this season from a 3-13 joke to a 10-6 playoff team. The team's dramatic turnaround in the defensive secondary and their jump to elite status along the offensive line with the addition of Matt Kalil are factors in the turnaround that are conveniently ignored. He is now garnering MVP support from people who frankly don't understand how the game of football works or the lack of importance of the RB position. Here is a link to my article from October discussing how every running back is essentially overrated because their yards gained are predominantly based on the blocking from the offensive line in front of them.

Vikings stud rookie OT Matt Kalil

When examining offensive line statistics from multiple outlets, Minnesota's offensive line consistently ranked in the top 10. This article from Pro Football Focus, which ranks offensive lines based on run blocking, pass blocking, and lack of penalties, has the Vikings o-line ranked 3rd in the entire NFL this season. Run blocking, obviously, has a large effect on rushing yards, and the Vikings were 2nd in the league in this category; additionally, penalty yards and pass blocking have a big impact on rushing yards because an offensive line that avoids penalties and sacks puts their team in a position to run the ball in shorter down and distances. The Vikings were 5th in penalties and 11th in pass blocking, meaning the offensive line not only was creating running lanes for Peterson, but they were also frequently keeping the Vikings in running situations.

As a result, Peterson was tied for 3rd in the league among RB's in % of snaps played at 74%. By comparison, however, EVERY top MVP candidate at QB played 97% or higher of the snaps (Manning (97%, Brady 98%, Rodgers 97%). Peterson frequently left the field on 3rd down, the most important down in the game, in favor of Toby Gerhart. This is understandable considering the nature of the RB position and the fact that Peterson was coming off a devastating injury, but the fact remains that every QB was on the field on every important 3rd down and Peterson was not. For a running back, Peterson's snap % was fantastic, but overall, it was below average. Peterson's 2,097 yards this season was easily first in the league among RB's by over 400 yards; however, in a passing league, 28 QB's had more yards and 8 QB's had more than DOUBLE the yards that Peterson gained. His 12 TD's ranked 3rd among RB's, but 12 QB's had more than double his TD production (3 had triple his TD's).

The Top Two MVP candidates: Brady and Manning

Of course QB's should have more yards and TD's than a running back, but isn't that the entire point? The NFL is a league where teams live and die on the play of their Quarterback. There is a reason that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers always make the playoffs. There is a reason why their teams consistently perform despite the talent surrounding them or the injuries the team sustains. There is a reason why the Colts and Patriots, respectively, missed the playoffs when Manning and Brady were lost for the year with injuries in past seasons. Running backs should NEVER be considered for MVP. A great tackle? Absolutely. A dominant defensive player? Definitely. Running Back is the least important position on the field and giving an MVP to someone who plays such an overrated and unimportant position would be a complete joke. Who should win MVP this year? Take your pick of Brady, Manning and Rodgers. You can't go wrong with any of those choices. I would take Brady because he played a slightly more difficult schedule than Manning, and beat him head-to-head. QB's should win an overwhelming majority of the MVP awards because they are the most important player in a team's success. Failing that, a great o-lineman or defender. Never a running back.

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Hey Mel Kiper, Here's Why RG3, Not Andrew Luck, is The Rookie of theYear

2013-01-03T16:53:00.002-05:00

Why RG3 is the Rookie of the Year

I read an article by Mel Kiper posting his All-Rookie teamon ESPN.com today. It was pretty straight-forward and predictable except for a glaring omission– this year’s clear-cut Rookie of the Year was left of the team in favor ofthis year’s No. 1 pick.

Here’s Kiper’s reasoning as to why he (wrongly) pickedLuck for the team over Robert Griffin III:

Quarterback

Luck

Andrew Luck, Colts:This could have gone to either Robert Griffin III or Russell Wilson, and itwouldn't offend most close observers. But if it offends you, before you leap tothe comments to have your say, let me make my case for Luck. The rookie recordfor passing yardage (4,374 yards) is nice, as is that he ran for fivetouchdowns to go with 23 touchdown passes. But he gets the most juice herebecause no team in history has had this kind of a turnaround after drafting atNo. 1, and Luck was the greatest reason the Colts turned it around. Folksaround the NFL will tell you the same thing.

The Colts were 2-14 in2011 and didn't add any significant value in free agency, and this season theywent 11-5. The Colts were 26th in total defense and used numerous rookies onoffense, and Luck was hit more than any other quarterback in the NFL. But hemanaged to improve, get results and deliver late, as evidenced by the sixfourth-quarter comebacks he engineered. RG III was exceptional, too, but losesslight ground because he has a better supporting cast (Washington beat theGiants twice in 2011) and didn't play in one of the huge wins of the season,when Kirk Cousins led the team to a win in Cleveland, which kept Washington'splayoff hopes alive. Wilson has been exceptional, but the defense carried theSeahawks early in the season as he got comfortable. Luck wins here based on hisbody of work over the course of the season, which spearheaded Indy's stunningturnaround. But they're all great.

Let’s start by addressing Kiper’s main argument: Luck didn’thave the supporting cast that RG3 did, and that the turnaround by the Colts from 2-14 to playoffs that was spearheaded by Luck was the most impressive storyline in the ROY debate – and that the Colts’ 26^th ranked defense is evidence that Luck was the reason for the Colts’ turnaround.

First of all, this wasn’t last year’s Colts. Let’s remember that that 2 win team was quarterbacked mainly by Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter. Anything with an arm is a noticeable improvement there. Let’s also consider that 2/3 of the Colts roster was overhauled. There were 35 new players on the Colts this year, so it is in no way the same team as last year from a personnel standpoint. Let’s also consider that the entire coaching staff was turned over, and that the entire team was riding an unquestionable emotional lift from the heroic battle with cancer that coach Pagano faced.

The Colts GM, Ryan Grigson turned
over practically the entire Colts roster
this year.

The crux of Kiper’s argument is that Luck singe-handedly turned around this team, but he’s failing to even notice that Ryan Grigson turned over the entire offense, defense and special teams. He then points to the fact that the Redskins beat the Giants twice last year as evidence that the Redskins are a vastly superior team. Sure, they beat the Giants – an incredibly historic and hated divisional nemesis – but they also lost to the lowly Bills, Dolphins and Vikings. I’d chalk those Giants victories up to a rivalry and good matchup more so than the implied greatness of a 2011 Redskins team that Kiper clearly never watched.

How about we also point out that Luck and the Colts play in the AFC South, not the NFC East – the vastly superior, best division in football that the Redskins play in. Two games against the Jaguars, two games against the Titans, and games against the Bills, Chiefs, and Lions and we’re already at 7 wins. The Redskins play in the same division as the Cowboys, the pre-season champ Eagles, and the defending Super Bowl champions, and they ended the season in first as division champions. Where’s Luck’s division championship? We’ll have to keep waiting; but, as far as RG3 goes, he’s already brushed aside Michael Vick, Tony Romo, and two-time Super Bowl champ Eli Manning.

Kiper makes a great observation that Luck overcame the league’s 26^th ranked defense to make the playoffs. Very impressive, but wouldn’t RG3’s defense being ranked 28^th be slightly more impressive?

Apparently RG3 getting hurt for a game and a half hurts his ROY candidacy in Kiper’s mind. I for one think it strengthens the head to head. Consider that the Redskins and Colts only had one common opponent: the Cleveland Browns. Luck was able to beat them by 4 points, throwing for 186 yards while RG3’s backup beat them by 17 and threw for 327 yards in the process. Imagine what would have happened had Griffin played!

Kiper also points to some statistics, but this is where RG3 clearly wins out. All you have to do is put them side-by-side and you can see who the clear winner is.

RG3 en route to the end zone after a 76 yard run against

the Vikings

Luck threw for more yardage, but when we look at total yardage, RG3’s Rookie rushing record of 815 yards puts him up over 4,000 yards - a mere 200 total yards behind Luck. Yardage, even. How about touchdowns? Luck: 28, RG3: 27. Touchdowns, even.

In those two categories, the players are essentially tied, but in every other meaningful Quarterback statistic, RG3 wins. Let’s think about the fact that RG3 was one of the three most efficient passers in the league this year. He was bested only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning as the top rated passer in the league this year while setting a Rookie record for QB Rating at 102.4. Luck’s QB Rating? A measly 26^th ranked 76.5 – behind Christian Ponder, Nick Foles, and Blaine Gabbert.

Mark Sanchez was a better statistical

comparison to Luck than RG3 - similar QB

rating, comp. percentage, and turnovers.

RG3 also completed 65.6% of his passes this year - another rookie record - and good for the league’s fourth best, just behind Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. Luck? 54.1%, ranked 31^st in the league, and he had a worse completion percentage than these symbols of passing accuracy: Blaine Gabbert, Matt Cassel, Michael Vick, and Mark Sanchez.

Luck is intercepted by the Bears Tim Jennings in week

one

I wonder why Luck’s completion percentage was so low. Maybe it’s because he was throwing the ball to the wrong team. He threw EIGHTEEN interceptions this year. Combine that with his 9 fumbles, and we have the NFL’s second most turnovers at TWENTY-SEVEN (only Mark Sanchez had more)! Luck was good for 1.6 turnovers a game this year.

On the flip side of that coin, RG3 had 5 interceptions and 3 fumbles. Luck had almost as many interceptions for touchdowns as RG3 had total interceptions (3 to 5). Overall turnovers: 27-5 in favor of RG3.

Kiper’s fatal flaw is thinking that ROY is a team award. It’s not. It’s an individual award. But even if it was a team award, then RG3 wins there. Of the three rookie QB’s in the playoffs, he’s the only one who won the division. Add to that that he won it in the NFC East – the NFL’s premier division, and it just becomes a no-brainer. He also happens to be the only one of these three guys to make the pro-bowl.

If all of that isn’t good enough to sway you, then how about we let Osi Umenyiora tell you: "That’s the best quarterback we’ve played this year, for sure. It’s just unfortunate that he’s a rookie, because he’s going to be around here forever, doing stuff like that. That’s just crazy.”

RG3 celebrates an NFC East crown in his first year.

Or Justin Tuck: "I’m pretty mad at the football gods for putting him in the NFC East. To face that guy twice a year is going to be a headache. He takes away from your enthusiasm for the game a little bit, when you play a play perfectly and he still has 4.3 speed to run by guys and makeplays. A guy like him, I don’t think there is anybody in the league just likehim,”

RG3 won his division, was one of the league’s top rated passers, didn’t hurt his team with turnovers, made the pro-bowl, and was themost dangerous and dynamic player in the league this year - ask the guys who played against him. The big difference here is that Luck had a great rookie season, but RG3 had a great season. That’s why he’s not just the clear-cut Rookie of the Year, but a legitimate MVP candidate.

Good Hire/Bad Hire? Breaking Down the Major College Football Coaching Hirings

2012-12-08T00:42:00.001-05:00

by John Huffstetler

Tennessee Volunteers- Butch Jones from Cincinnati- Bad Hire- The main problem with Butch Jones is that he has never proven he can effectively recruit at Central Michigan or Cincinnati. In both of his previous stops, he followed Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly, who was widely regarded as a fantastic recruiter. Kelly sent the likes of WR Antonio Brown, DE Dan Bazuin, OT Joe Staley, DE Conner Barwin, RB Isiah Pead, WR Mardy Gilyard to the NFL during his tenures at Central Michigan and Cincinnati. While Jones enjoyed success at both of his stops following Kelly, he left a dearth of talent at Central Michigan after he left because of his lack of recruiting (and most likely will at Cincinnati as well). The proof? Central Michigan is 12-24 since Jones left. Some might argue that this proves Jones was such a GREAT coach that his team could not survive his absence, but what this truly shows is how poorly he recruited and how little talent he left at the institution. Now, he must recruit players against the likes of Alabama, South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, Florida, etc. and there is absolutely ZERO proof he can get the players he needs to put Tennessee back in the elite realm. There were better candidates out there (like former OC David Cutcliffe) and Tennessee failed here.

Auburn Tigers- Gus Malzahn from Arkansas St.- Great Hire- The former offensive coordinator from the 2010 National Championship team returns as the head coach here at Auburn. Malzahn's innovative, up-tempo offense and the dynamic play of QB Cam Newton are widely credited as the main reasons for the Tigers title...not Gene Chizik. After Malzahn and Newton left, Chizik inexplicably switched offenses from Malzahn's up-tempo system and the new offense floundered over the next two seasons before his rapid firing following the disgraceful performance against Bama to end this season. With Malzahn back and coaching many of his former players, the offensive will immediately be more dynamic. Additionally, Auburn fans and boosters love Malzahn for his role in the 2010 title and will throw their support behind someone they view as an "Auburn" guy.

Arkansas Razorbacks- Bret Bielema from Wisconsin- Bad Hire- There is absolutely nothing wrong with Bielema as a coach. He's proven his ability to build national caliber offensive lines and establish strong rushing attacks, which are important characteristics of SEC football. You must run the ball and stop the run in the SEC; however, Bielema is not an "SEC' guy. He is an outsider. This hire reminds me of the ill-fated Rich Rodriguez experiment at Michigan. He was never a Michigan guy, and he was never embraced by the community. Bielema has been quoted within the past year bashing the SEC when talking about Urban Meyer at Ohio State. Referring to the SEC's recruiting tactics, Bielema said, "I can tell you this, we at the Big Ten don't want to be like the SEC in any way, shape, or form." How can you hire a man who openly criticizes the recruiting tactics in your conference?! This hiring boggles my mind. He is an absolute outsider and may never be anything more. This is just a bad fit.

Cal Golden Bears- Sonny Dykes from Louisiana Tech- Great Hire- Just a perfect fit here for both sides on this one. Dykes, like Gus Malzahn or Kevin Sumlin, has shown an innate ability to run up-tempo spread offenses with great success. An institution like Cal, which is currently struggling in recruiting compared to Pac-12 rivals USC, UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon, needs to have a hook to pitch to recruits. Potential talented recruits that are slightly off the radar of the big recruiting powerhouses will relish the opportunity to play in a system where they can expect to score 30+ points a game almost immediately. The question, of course, will be defensively. If Dykes can get enough athletes on defense and a solid coordinator, they could almost immediately compete in a Pac-12 South that is incredibly soft right now (remember when USC was AP #1 to start the season? Great job, AP).

Kentucky Wildcats- Mark Stoops from Florida St. (DC)- Great Hire- Although not as highly respected as the previous 4 jobs, Kentucky deserves acknowledgment for landing a highly respected Defensive Coordinator from a prestigious football family. Unlike fellow middling major conference programs in Purdue, NC St., and Boston College who hired unestablished mid-major coaches with little to no resumes, Kentucky actually made the right decision. My main question here is why Stoops, a highly respected coordinator, would accept a job that almost seems beneath him. The only rational reason is the "Cutcliffe" theory. When David Cutcliffe accepted the Duke job, he was a highly respected OC from Tennessee (wait, why didn't Tennessee hire him instead of Jones?). Because he had such low expectations at Duke, he was given extra time to build the program, and now, a 6-6 finish and a bowl game appearance makes him a hero. Stoops will similarly be given several years to put a program together and try to succeed. Unlike BC, NC St., and Purdue, who did nothing in their hirings to demonstrate the potential for improvement, Kentucky landed a great coach and they have a chance to flourish under his leadership.

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College Football Week 13 Reflections

2012-11-26T23:20:00.000-05:00

by John Huffstetler

SEC >>>>>>>>>>> ACC- Of course, anyone who watches College Football already knows that the SEC is MUCH better than the ACC, but oddsmakers still installed both Florida St. (-7 vs. Florida) and Clemson (-4 vs. South Carolina) as favorites in their huge in-state tilts. In both instances, the SEC schools out-gained their ACC foes and dominated the 4th quarters on their way to outright victories. Additionally, Vandy and Georgia decimated Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, respectively, to push the SEC record to 5-1 on the season against the ACC. The lone ACC win came in the opening week when Clemson squeaked out a 7 point win against an Auburn that finished the season 0-8 in the SEC and then fired their head coach (see below). There will be at least one SEC/ACC match-up in the bowl season (Peach Bowl) to watch and see if this trend continues.

Big 12 = No Defense- It's absolutely pathetic how poor the defense is in the Big 12. There are two teams who have, on occasion, shown the ability to stop opposing offenses: TCU and Kansas St. Not surprisingly, they are the top-ranked Big 12 teams in yards per play at 5.1; however, this only ranks 33rd and 36th nationally. 5 teams (half of the conference) ranks 89th or lower in Defensive YPP, which is staggering for a major conference. On could argue that the Big 12 has strong, high-tempo offenses, which helps to account for the poor rankings, but this still shouldn't account for rankings that poor when also factoring in the poor out-of-conference schedules of most Big 12 squads. The Baylor 52 - Texas Tech 45 and Oklahoma 51 - Oklahoma St. 48 OT thrillers on Saturday were great games, but they demonstrate that the Big 12 desperately needs better athletes on defense if they want a team to emerge as a title contender next season.

Gene Chizik at Auburn firing makes sense/Danny Hope firing at Purdue makes no sense- When you consider how his players seemingly gave up on the season mid-way through. There were moments early in the season where Auburn looked like a potential bowl team with close losses to strong Clemson (by 7) and LSU (by 2) squads. By October, however, it already appeared like the Tigers had given up on being competitive. The offense was never strong, and hasn't been since Gus Malzahn departed to coach Arkansas St., but a defense that looked potentially strong early started to get gashed by Ole Miss for 41, Texas A+M for 63, Georgia for 38 and Alabama for 49. There just appeared to be a lack of effort and intensity, capped by there listless effort against Alabama. I watched Purdue battle in a tough-fought win over Indiana on Saturday to earn a bowl-berth and thought about how different these teams finished the year. Purdue battled for head coach Danny Hope for 3 straight wins and left every bit of their effort on the field. Obviously, the Hope firing rumors have been there the whole season, but watching that Indiana game and seeing the energy and enthusiasm of the Purdue sideline says everything about Hope as a coach. Newsflash Purdue...you're Purdue!! You will not get great recruits. You need a guy who can get good recruits and coach up the player's he has. They played their hearts out for him and you just punched them all in the face.

USC Back-up QB Max Wittek is a future stud- "With the first pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Max Wittek, QB from USC." Wittek's stat line against Notre Dame was far from impressive with just 186 yards passing and 2 picks, but he showed me an incredibly quick release and off-the-charts arm strength. His comments before the game guaranteeing victory, although ultimately misguided, shows his confidence in his own abilities. He reminds me of Brett Favre when I watch him play. No player I've seen this year collegiately at QB impresses me more from a raw talent standpoint than Wittek. There does appear to be a major drop in QB talent coming to the NFL over the next 3 years following the recent surge in NFL-caliber talent. He will undoubtedly be a better NFL player than USC's highly-touted starter at QB Matt Barkley.

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Angry Rant: Alabama beating an NFL team is laughable

2012-11-02T00:32:00.001-04:00

by John Huffstetler

I don't know Steve, when you coached
the Skins and I coached the Dolphins,
we did pretty terribly.

This debate regarding great collegiate teams and poor NFL teams was rekindled by Steve Spurrier's comments about Alabama possibly being favored against some unnamed NFL teams. For starters, Alabama isn't even that good this year. Last year's Bama squad would beat this year's team, and last year's squad couldn't even beat LSU at home during the regular season (or top 6 points). This year, Bama's "brutal" schedule so far includes wins over Michigan, Miss St., Tennessee, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. One of those teams is ranked...none are that good. They avoid playing Florida, Georgia, and Spurrier's South Carolina squad out of the East this year out of shear luck. Any of these teams would have a legitimate shot to beat the Tide on a neutral field. Most years, this team isn't even the best in the country, but there simply aren't many good teams this year (that's why average Kansas St. and Notre Dame teams are in the top 5).

There are so many options for high school players to choose from

Beyond the fact that Alabama is assuredly overrated this year, the thought that any college team could beat an NFL team is totally ridiculous. The talent level on any of the 32 NFL teams is much higher than any college team because of the significantly greater number of college squads and the level of maturity and physical development of the players. There are players on 124 FBS teams (pictured to the right) (and some players from other divisions as well) for the NFL to choose from, and they choose the best players. The natural counter argument to this is that Alabama gets the best prospects in the country to choose from; however, the spread is still dramatic. Many players choose a school close to their hometown or because they grew up liking a team. Not every great player just blindly chooses Alabama. There are also hundreds of players every year that go under the radar and earn their way onto an NFL roster through their development and achievement at smaller schools. Here's an all-star squad of players from non-division 1-a schools:

QB- Tony Romo- Eastern Illinois (or how about Joe Flacco from Delaware if you prefer)
RB- Fred Jackson- Coe College
FB- Mike Tolbert- Coastal Carolina
WR- Victor Cruz- UMass (Pictured to the left holding the Super Bowl trophy
Vincent Jackson- Northern Colorado
Marques Colston- Hofstra
Miles Austin- Monmouth

OL- Michael Roos- Eastern Washington
Willie Colon- Hofstra
Jahri Evans- Bloomsburg
Dan Connolly- SE Missouri St.
Chris Kuper- North Dakota
DE- Jared Allen- Idaho St.
Robert Mathis- Alabama A&M
DT- Stephen Bowen- Hofstra
Jacques Cesaire- Southern Connecticut
LB- Akeem Jordan- James Madison
London Fletcher- John Carroll
Stephen Cooper- Maine
CB- Brandon Carr- Grand Valley State (or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Tennessee State if you prefer)
Cortland Finnegan- Samford (or Brent Grimes from Shippensburg if you prefer)
FS- Nick Collins- Bethune-Cookman
SS- Danieal Manning- Abilene Christian
K- Rob Bironas- Georgia Southern
P- Mike Scifres- Western Illinois

Alabama wouldn't even beat that team. The point is, the NFL doesn't just take players from the best schools. This is a collection of the best 32 rosters of football players in the country. This list proves that there is talent scattered throughout the country that contributes to NFL rosters at a Pro Bowl level. Not to mention the fact that every player that is drafted into the NFL becomes better as their career progresses for years. Players get smarter and stronger in their mid-to-late 20's than they were from 18-22.

To compare the talent level on one NFL team to Alabama, let's take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs and their top players, since they are one of the teams being compared to this Crimson Tide squad, with a particular focus on their stellar collegiate careers:

Kansas City Chiefs

Quinn accepting the Johnny Unitas Award

QB- Brady Quinn- Although largely ineffective on the pro-level (because of the higher talent level in the NFL), Quinn set 36 Notre Dame records during his collegiate career. In 2005, he finished 4th in Heisman voting, while winning the Sammy Baugh trophy as the nation's top QB. In 2006, he won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and the Maxwell Trophy as the best college football player. He also finished 3rd in Heisman voting.

RB- Jamaal Charles- As a true freshman at Texas in 2005, Charles rushed for 878 yards and 11 touchdowns with a 7.4 yards per carry average to help Texas win the National Championship. In his Junior year (his final collegiate year), he rushed for over 1,400 yards, including a 290 yard game against Nebraska. He ranks 4th in Texas history in rush yards (despite skipping his Senior year) behind only Ricky Williams, Earl Campbell, and Cedric Benson.

WR- Dwayne Bowe- Bowe started 31 games for LSU (in the precious SEC) where he recorded 154 catches, 2,403 yards, and a school-record 26 TD's. In his senior year, Bowe earned 3rd-team All-American honors and 1st-team All-SEC honors for the top-5 Tiger squad.

Big #11- Derrick Johnson

LB- Derrick Johnson- Johnson was one of the most dominant LB's in the country during his career at Texas. He finished his career with 281 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 9 Int's and 11 Forced Fumbles. He was a first-team Big-12 selection 3 times, first-team All-American twice, and he won the Dick Butkus award as the best linebacker in the country and the Bronco Nagurski award as the best defensive player in the country during his Senior season.

SS- Eric Berry- In his three years with Tennessee, Berry racked up 241 tackles (as a cornerback) and had 14 Ints. Considered nationally to be the best shut-down corner in the country, he earned the following accolades: 2-time First-team All-American, 3-time All-SEC, 2007 SEC Defensive Freshman of the year, 2008 Vince Dooley Award, 2008 SEC Defensive Player of the Year, 2008 and 2009 Jack Tatum Award winner, and 2009 Jim Thorpe Award winner.

Glenn Dorsey holding the National Champ. Trophy

DT- Glenn Dorsey- Although he has struggled to stay healthy and find consistency on the pro-level, Dorsey was one of the most decorated defensive tackles of all-time while at LSU. He was twice named first-team All-SEC and All-American. In 2007, he won SEC defensive player of the year, the Lombardi trophy, the Outland trophy, the Bronco Nagurski trophy, and the Lott trophy while racking up 69 tackles, 12.5 TFL, and 7 sacks for the National Champion Tigers.

I could go on as Brandon Flowers (VaTech), Tamba Hali (Penn St.), Javier Arenas (Alabama), Brandon Siler (Florida), Tyson Jackson (LSU), Dexter McCluster (Ole Miss), Steve Breaston (Michigan), and Eric Winston (Miami Fl.) among others had stellar careers for major collegiate football programs. The point is that the Chiefs are LOADED with collegiate football talent. They are essentially a collegiate All-American team unto themselves. Take these collegiate resumes and match them up with the resumes of the current Bama players. It's not even a comparison. This a collection of some of the most decorated collegiate athletes in the country over the past decade...and they're now 1-7 this year. Again, because there are only 32 NFL teams compared to over a hundred college teams, and these are men...not boys.

So shut up Steve Spurrier and others, and show these decorated, accomplished NFL players like the Chiefs some respect. Comparing them to a college team is not only an absolutely ridiculous argument, but it's disrespectful to these teams and players who deserve more respect than to be compared to a group of children who aren't even that good to begin with. I'm instituting a new policy: Anyone who makes the argument that Alabama could beat a pro team can legally be punched in the face without repercussions. I'm flying to South Carolina now to punch Spurrier squarely on his outrageously red cheeks.

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NBA Betting: Season Over/Unders

2012-10-31T02:57:00.001-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Over the past few years in College Football, NFL, and NBA season over/under bets, I've profited in each sport every season. Season bets are basically the best and easiest (and most under-utilized) bets that exist in sports gambling. You don't have to break down every individual matchup, or see what team is in a favorable spot for any game, or hope sweat a -7 in the NBA when your team is up 8 because of late-game fouling. You just need to try and predict which teams will have good/bad seasons based on offseason changes, schedules, injuries, etc, and pull for them to win straight up against their opponents. If you are trying to break into sports gambling without knowing anything and you don't want to lose all of your money, just bet a few solid season bets. You will be entertained all year and have a better chance of winning because of the long-term nature of the bet. For example, I made exactly one MLB bet the entire year last year (because I know nothing about day-to-day baseball): Washington Nationals over 83.5 wins for 3 units of profit. As a result, I was invested in every game they played and had a win wrapped up by August for a profitable season. That being said, I know much more about the NBA. Here are my plays on the NBA this year for season over/unders:

The test case for if you can have a Unibrow and still get buns

Top Play: New Orleans Hornets Over 27.5 Wins- I played this for 3 times a normal bet because I'm completely confident in the result. If you only made one NBA bet this year, this is it. Based on adjusted win totals last year (NOTE: THERE WERE ONLY 66 GAMES LAST YEAR/ ADJUSTING FOR AN 82 GAME SEASON ON EVERY TEAM LAST YEAR), the Hornets had 26 wins with a pathetic roster assembled by David Stern and the league office who took control of the team after bankruptcy of the owners. To start, Gordon was injured a large majority of the season but the team was 6-3 and showing a pulse when he was healthy. He is by far their best returning player, so his health is essentially like adding another big free agent. In addition to Gordon, New Orleans added two other potential all-stars in Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis. Anderson was a fantastic free agent acquisition from salary-dumping Orlando. He had a fantastic year this past year, and in fact, I wrote this article discussing how he should have been a starter in the all-star game for the East because of his play. Not to mention Davis, who proved last year at Kentucky that he is an elite defensive player while protecting the ball, rebounding effectively, and scoring when needed. Davis will make an immediate impact on the NBA level and could potentially win Rookie of the Year. Look for New Orleans not only to surpass 28 wins but possibly contend for a playoff spot out West.

Going to keep the rest of these short and sweet so I can have this done by Wednesday (Note: I played both Boston and Miami under their totals because of their penchant for not caring about the regular season, but they've both already played their openers).

Atlanta Hawks Over 43 Wins- Few teams have had a more intelligent offseason than the Hawks and new GM Danny Ferry. They get rid of overpaid bums like Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams (thus helping their financial future) while adding more valuable pieces like Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, and Devin Harris, and maintaining their true nucleus of Josh Smith and Al Horford. This team should at least match last year's win pct. because of their savvy acquisitions.

S my D, Philly

Philadelphia 76ers Under 47 wins- If not for the addition of an injured Andrew Bynum, Philly would have had the worst offseason in the NBA. I don't need to give stats to prove how bad Kwame Brown, Nick Young, and Jason Richardson are. Those names say enough. The loss of Lou Williams scoring on the perimeter and the defense of Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand, plus the questionable health of Bynum make Philly a team that would be lucky to earn an 8 seed.

Denver Nuggets Over 50 wins- The addition of Andre Iguodala to this already deep roster gives them a terrific starting backcourt of Lawson, Iguodala, Gallinari. Plus, they reached 47.2 adjusted wins last year with several injuries (and players in China). This year, their starting five is stronger and their bench is as deep as ever. Not to mention, they got rid of their worst player who received playing time in Al Harrington in a trade this offseason. Addition by subtraction factor.

Phoenix Suns Under 31.5 Wins- I don't usually like playing teams with low win totals "under" their wins, but this backcourt is abysmal following the loss of Steve Nash. I'm ok with Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley, but Telfair, Beasley, and Wesley Johnson are just dreadful. I can't see anyone here shooting well from the field. Plus, this team only had 42 adjusted wins last year with Nash, and he is one of the more valuable players in the league. Terrible team.

Toronto Raptors Over 34.5 Wins- The Raptors are always a good bet "over" because everyone just assumes they suck (I played them over for a win last year). They actually made some pretty good offseason acquisitions by adding Kyle Lowry and Landry Fields, and they brought in Jonas Valanciunas from Europe. They have talent already on the roster with Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Jose Calderon, and Ed Davis, but their continuing problem is their insistency to play a terribly inefficient Andrea Bargnani significant minutes. I wrote an article last season ranking the most overrated players in the NBA and Bargnani was #1. Hopefully, the additions to the roster will limit his playing time enough to elevate the Raptors to the next level.

I'm grossly overpaid

Brooklyn Nets Under 45 Wins- The hype is absolutely out of control. They added a way-over-the-hill Joe Johnson and a Gerald Wallace late last season who was better in Charlotte than Portland. They also get back a healthy but questionably important (see #4 on my overrated list from above) Brook Lopez from injury last season. To be honest, I don't see where this win total comes from besides the massive hype. Deron Williams is a good (not great) point guard and he is surrounded by old or overrated fringe stars. Reggie Evans, MarShon Brooks, and Josh Childress off the bench are promising, but they won't get enough minutes to make a difference on this likely non-playoff team.

New York Knicks Over 46.5 Wins- I've been criticizing the Knicks moves and the performance of Amare and Melo for years, but they're finally figuring it out. Last year's addition of Tyson Chandler was a fantastic move to combat the defensive failings of "Carmare," and they followed that up this offseason with the additions of Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton at Point Guard. They also added defensive stalwarts Ronnie Brewer and Marcus Camby to make virtually everyone on the roster besides their two "stars" defensively stout. Helping the Knicks this year is the early season injury to Amare. The team should perform better in his absence without the defensive black hole of "Carmare" in effect.

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Angry Rant: Running Backs are Overrated (and I blame ESPN and Fantasy)

2012-10-31T00:36:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Pretty easy to score when you just walk in

I've ranted against ESPN before in an article that discussed how they were more of an entertainment network than a sports network, and this issue ties directly to that issue of athlete glorification. Running Backs on the pro level simply are not nearly as important as they are perceived. In fact, of all the offensive and defensive positions, one could argue that running back is the least important. The offensive line's ability to block and create space for a back to operate is a dramatically more important factor in creating rushing yards than a back's perceived ability. Granted, there are a handful of players who can make a difference in their teams' success or failure on any given week, but outside of this small list, they are all basically interchangeable.

You're not that good, CJ2K

What evidence is there to support this theory? For starters, there is an obvious growing trend to split carries in the NFL, which shows teams are willing to choose the fresher back over a "better" back in many situations. These teams also do not want one player to gain too many yards, gain to much acclaim, and overestimate their own value (see the MJD and Chris Johnson holdouts). Additionally, Football Outsiders has a great statistic that attempts to measure a RB's value while taking away the yards that the offensive line directly generated for that player. DYAR (Defensive-adjusted yards above replacement) gives "the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage." In this telling statistic, 16 of the 32 starters in the league are either equal to or worse than their backups when combining rushing and receiving totals. These numbers can be found here.

Wait, how is Chan Gailey a head coach again?

CJ Spiller (technically a backup because of Chan Gailey's own stupidity) is #2 in the entire league in this stat! The starters that are significantly better than their replacement(s) (50 yards or more difference) can be counted on two hands and several are the obvious ones: Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, Willis McGahee, Doug Martin, and DeMarco Murray. That's it. Notice that most of these players receive a majority of carries over their replacements when healthy as well. There are three players that receive a decided majority of carries but this year are worse than an average replacement: LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, and Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis. All big names, yet all 3 teams would be better off with an average NFL replacement than these rushers this year. McFadden has been particularly dreadful with a -103 mark (worst among rushers receiving over 63 carries). Trent Richardson, the Browns "terrific" pick in last years draft is -22 rushing the football compared to an average replacement (though he makes up for it with a +66 receiving mark), yet he warranted a Browns trade to make him a top 3 pick? Not whatsoever, as we discussed in our draft blog the night of the draft.

So why are running backs so overvalued? First, the ESPN bottom line for every game lists either the stats for the QB, RB, WR, or TE. I understand that it is difficult to quantify how well an O-line does during a game, but ESPN makes no effort to attempt to credit the O-line. The way some ESPN analysts discuss the way a back played contributes to this fallacy as well. Running backs are routinely highlighted for their "great play" without mention of the how the offensive line allowed them to be untouched for 10 yards. Here are the highlights from last Thursday night's Tampa Bay/Minnesota game and the 214 yards gained by Doug Martin largely because of the Tampa Bay blocking. Notice how Martin barely gets touched until he's several yards downfield on most carries because all he needs to do is run to the open space. A running back is only as good as the blocking in front of him. ESPN routinely misses the mark on this principle.

Fantasy football is to blame as well with every idiot who plays fantasy football thinking that the best fantasy players are also the best real players. There's a reason why Arian Foster rushes for a ton of yards every year, and it's not his ability...it's the Texans fantastic O-line. Back in the day, the Chiefs had the best O-line in the league and they made Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson look like Barry Sanders. As soon as LJ left the Chiefs, his career was over because he was never that good to begin with. There's a reason the Patriots go through RB's like toilet paper. They know it's their offensive line that makes the running game work. I understand it would be difficult to credit an offensive line for their effort in fantasy, but why not credit rush yards gained as a team, pancake blocks, and subtracting for sacks allowed? Seems like a legitimate formula to me. At least then the thousands of fantasy players in this country who know nothing about the sport can at least begin to understand what actually makes a team successful. Hopefully, we can start to change this perception and credit the great offensive lineman this league has to offer that relatively anonymously guide their teams to glory.

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A Rebuttal to Rick Reilly: Luck or RG3

2012-10-26T13:58:00.001-04:00

If you haven't had a chance to read Rick Reilly's article about Andrew Luck being better than RG3 this year, then consider yourself lucky. Because rather than giving sound evidence and explaining his point, he gives you misleading statistics and tries to be the funny guy. I'm still not even sure how this guy got a job with ESPN--he should be writing for the Bristol gossip column. But enough about him, let's focus on why RG3 is, without a doubt, having the better season at quarterback.

First, I would like to preface with the fact that both of these players are great. Not just good, but they are both playing at an extremely high level for rookies, and they both have incredibly bright careers. But I've been in love with Robert Griffin III since I wrote about him December 8, 2011. And so far this year, everything has come true. So this article is meant to take nothing away from Andrew Luck--it is meant to take everything away from Rick Reilly, while anointing RG3 even more than he has been already.

Reilly's first point, "Luck runs more successfully than Griffin. He's had 10 scrambles for first downs. Griffin has had 9." Stop the presses. 10-to-9! Reilly, you son of a bitch. You win this round.

Oh wait, no you don't. while a 10-9 victory in "runs for first downs" is surely a reason to say Luck's better than RG3, I think looking at a complete scope of rushing statistics would be a bit more effective. Considering RG3 averages 7.3 yards/carry, compared to Luck's 5.8, says a bit more than your 10-9 statistic. And he's doing all of this while teams are specifically game-planning to take away his running ability. And, since it seems like you didn't see it, here's Griffin vs. the Vikings. Luck is a good runner in his own right, but to even make the case that he's a better running quarterback is asinine. Griffin is 13th in the league in rushing, while Luck fails to crack the top 40.

Reilly's next point, "Luck is asked to do more than Griffin and is doing it. His average pass completion travels 8.6 yards in the air, highest in the NFL. Griffin's is 5.8, one of the lowest." This sounds like a statement from a guy who's never watched a game of football in his life, not an "esteemed ESPN columnist." Many uneducated football fans use this "yards in the air" stat for quarterbacks, and it's a terrible statistic.

Reilly says, "Sixty-nine percent of the Colt's passing yards are gained while the ball is in the air, the rest after the catch. Only 49% of the Skin's passing yards come through the air. In other words, Griffin still has his training wheels on. Luck has his license."

Merrill Hoge (and I don't like citing him on football knowledge because he's not very knowledgable, but he was very astute in his breakdown of Luck and RG3), while analyzing Luck vs. Griffin before the draft, showed tape where, time after time, RG3 would throw a football and lead his receiver to open space. His Luck-counterpoint was tape where, time after time, Luck would make the receiver go down to catch the football or throw behind the receiver, limiting yards after the catch. This analysis has been the most accurate of any in comparing Luck and RG3 in their rookie years, and it holds true in Reilly's cited statistics. Yes, Luck may be completing 8.6 "air-yards" for every completion, but RG3 is completing 70.4% of his passes, compared to just 53.6% for Luck. And he's done it all without his #1 receiver, Pierre Garcon. It's not like he's got a future Hall of Famer to throw to like Luck does in Reggie Wayne. Also, while QB rating can be a misleading statistic, RG3 is 3rd in the league in QB rating, while Andrew Luck is 31st. That sort of discrepancy is never misleading.

Then, Reilly goes on to say that "Katy Perry in heels" could complete 60% of her passes in the Redskins offense, another reason why he should apply for a job with the National Enquirer. Tom Brady always used to get blamed for throwing short passes, too, but why wouldn't you? There's less risk involved, you still get the ball in the hands of your playmakers, and it's clearly effective in today's NFL.

He also says that Luck has been more heroic. More heroic? I'm not even sure what that means, to be honest. But I think what RG3 did against the Giants was the definition of "heroic."

All of the points Reilly makes are points that my sister, who hasn't watched a football game in 10 years (she's too busy doing yoga and not eating anything with a face), would make. He might as well have started the article with, "The Indianapolis Colts have prettier colors!" At least I wouldn't have wasted my time reading it.

Do us all a favor, Reilly, and stop writing articles. To quote Coach Riley from the Mighty Ducks, "You're not even a has-been, you're a never-was."

Angry Rant: College Football Conference Realignment is the Worst!

2012-10-24T01:33:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

Much to the detriment and confusion of fans, the major conference power struggle in recent years has completely shuffled the structure of college football. Not only are some teams way outside of their geographic regions (see West Virginia in the Big 12), but the divisions established within these new conferences usually make no sense at all. Why can't each team be in their own geographic region and in divisions that actually make sense? Would it be too difficult for the ACC and Big Ten to organize their teams into two divisions that people can actually remember? Why is Missouri in the SEC East even though they're located further west than 5 SEC West teams? The rest of this rant will break down the annoying nuances of conference realignment conference by conference and fix College Football's terrible newly established divisions.

Big 12

First of all, you have 10 teams now. It reminds me of my brother claiming he's 5'8" when he's clearly 5'6" at best. They were down to 8 before adding TCU and West Virginia. TCU makes perfect sense. They're a school from Texas with the potential to be a perennial top 25 team nationally. They fit in already as natural rivals with Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. West Virginia, however, is ridiculous! There were multiple teams that made more sense than WVA that the Big 12 could have invited to join the conference.

First of all, West Virginia is a terrible state and has an overrated football team. Making teams in your conference travel to West Virginia once every two years is basically a prison sentence. Nobody wants to go to West Virginia. Not even West Virginians. Secondly, they are located NOWHERE NEAR EVERY OTHER TEAM! Would Houston have been that terrible to get instead? Their football program is strong and they're located in Texas where 4 other Big 12 teams reside. How about Boise St.? They obviously would have turned down the Big East and joined the Big 12 instead. I could go on, but the point remains that there were many viable options that were more geographically suitable for the Big 12 that don't involve the worst state in the US. Here's what the Big 12 should look like (let's actually give them 12 teams too):

My Big 12

North
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
~~West Virginia~~
Boise St.

South
Baylor
Texas
TCU
Texas Tech
Houston
Tulsa

ACC

Wow, great job ACC. These make perfect sense.

With the ACC, at least the teams in the league make sense, but the divisions are total nonsense. I'll pay anyone $100 if they can name every team in each division. You might remember that Clemson and Florida St. are on the same half and that Miami and Virginia Tech are on the other half, but you'll probably have to double-check on where the dogshit teams like Duke, Virginia, and Wake Forest fall. Plus, the division names are infuriating! Atlantic and Coastal. That's almost as pathetically lame as Legends and Leaders (see the Big Ten). Why couldn't the ACC just structure the divisions based on geography? Oh, now I remember. They originally wanted Florida St. and Miami to be on opposite sides of the conference so they could play in the conference title game. Only problem is that they've both been mediocre for the last decade. Here are the conference championship game results over the 7 years the game has existed with Florida St.'s and Miami's appearances in bold:

2005- Florida St. over Virginia Tech
2006- Wake Forest over Georgia Tech
2007- Virginia Tech over Boston College
2008- Virginia Tech over Boston College
2009- Georgia Tech over Clemson
2010- Virginia Tech over Florida St.
2011- Clemson over Virginia Tech

Notice the lack of bold. Florida St. has been to the title game twice and Miami ZERO Times. You CAN'T organize a conference based on the possibility of two teams meeting in the title game. That is a short-sighted approach. The ACC should have been geographically organized, and this lack of geographic organization has completely crippled their conference's rivalries, and undoubtedly stifled them in recruiting. Now, Pitt and Syracuse will be joining this mess and the proposed North and South divisions STILL have Miami and Florida St. in opposite divisions! Did they learn nothing from this current alignment? Here is the way the divisions should look right now:

My ACC

North

Boston College
Maryland
Virginia
Virginia Tech
UNC
Duke

South

Wake Forest
NC St.
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Miami Fl.
Florida St.

So much simpler! Split up the North Carolina teams and put the Northern teams together and the Southern teams together. So what if one half looks stronger. Just divide it up logically.

Big Ten

Hey guys, my team is in the "Rainbow Fairy Division"

Two words: Leaders and Legends. These are the names of the divisions? Why? First of all, there are exactly zero "Legends" from Minnesota, and the "Leaders" at Penn St. and Ohio St. have proven to be complete scumbags. Plus, the division names are so cheesy. As a Michigan fan, it's hard to say we're in the "Legends" division without sounding like a gigantic pussy. Just like the ACC, the divisions make no sense based on geography or rivalries either. Also like the ACC with Florida St. and Miami (and we've seen how that has turned out), the Big Ten wanted to put Ohio St. and Michigan on opposite sides of the conference so they could potentially play in the title game. This throws everything else in the conference out of whack. It's not as big of a mess as the ACC, but the divisions could still improve. Swapping Wisconsin and Illinois for Michigan and Michigan St. would essentially solve the problem and create "East" and "West" divisions. This would give the added bonus of not feeling ashamed to say what division your fucking team is in! Oh and by the way, I'm changing the conference name from the Big 10 to the Big North.

My Big North

East (How awesome does this division look to watch by the way)
Penn St.
Ohio St.
Michigan
Michigan St.
Purdue
Indiana

West
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nebraska

SEC

This line looks a little crooked

I'm going to keep this one short: Your conference was already fantastic. Why are you adding Big 12 trash and throwing off your perfect East/West balance? Missouri in the East? Gross. Plus, if you put Missouri in the West, the only sensible geographic move would be to split up the Alabama and Auburn rivalry, which is unacceptable. My solution is to go back in time and tell Missouri and Texas A+M to fuck off and stay in the Big 12. Why mess with perfection.

No Complaints Pac-12

Every other conference botched it in some way except the Pac-12. They added two teams: Colorado and Utah. Although both teams aren't particularly good, they at least make sense geographically. There is a clear North/South dividing line. They didn't try to put two teams on opposite sides so they can play in a title game once every 5 years if they're lucky. They just divided the teams up geographically and moved on. If only every other conference would have done the same. We wouldn't have to deal with teams in ridiculous conferences with terribly named divisions.

Is this nightmare salvageable? Probably not. Unfortunately, the perception of monetary gain drives the conference expansion and division of teams rather than logic and order. Next year, Boise St. will be in the Big East and West Virginia will remain in the Big 12. There is something just so wrong with that. It just feels dirty. And why hasn't the ACC learned that rigging divisions so Miami and Florida St. play in the title game didn't work? They're about to make the same mistake again with their proposed divisional alignment for next year. It might be over a decade before Miami and Florida St. happen to meet in the title game. That's not worth bastardizing your conference's divisional alignment. Learn from your mistakes and set the new divisions up correctly.

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Angry Rant: Ryan Lochte is a D-Bag

2012-09-21T00:53:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

After the 2012 Summer Olympics, Ryan Lochte celebrated his achievements with a whirlwind publicity tour to discuss his amazing accomplishm....oh wait, he only had two golds? Oh, and one was a team race. He was embarrassingly passed by Yannick Angel in the final leg of the 4x100 relay to cost the United States the medal? He was passed in the 200 Back by teammate Tyler Clary and finished third? He lost to Michael Phelps (a legitimate champion) in the 200 IM? Doesn't sound like he did anything in the olympics. So why is this magnificent douchebag (seen to the right sporting a "grill" while holding his one individual gold) going on a publicity tour like he's a conquering hero?

Why? Because Ryan Lochte loves himself some Ryan Lochte. I can just picture him at home making out with his own reflection in the mirror, then walking to his closet where he keeps his 130 pair of shoes (not kidding) and picking out a sick pair. The "highlight" of his shoe collection are his neon green abominations (pictured to the left) with "Ryan" on the right sole and "Lochte" on the left. Oh, he also markets and wears shirts that have his own name and "made in the USA" (pictured below) on them. This means that at some point, he must have simultaneously worn a t-shirt and shoes with his own name on them at the same time. Yeah, that's not self-indulgent at all. I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that he was TERRIBLE in the Olympics!!! The wardrobe issues don't stop there either. He has said about his amazing style: "All the stuff that I do, like, the crazy shoes I wear, like the grills I wear on the podium, the crazy shoes, all that crazy stuff- like, rock star." First of all, that sentence is an abortion of the English language. Second of all, he mentioned his shoes twice in the same sentence. Third of all, how on Earth can he call himself a "rock star" when he's spent the majority of his life in a fucking speedo (including Pink ones apparently).

Beyond all of the obvious wardrobe issues, Lochte recently put in a trademark for the word "Jeah!" At this point, I'm having a hard time typing because I'm paralyzed with rage, but I'll do my best. By most reports, he basically stole the catchphrase from a Young Jeezy song, yet according to him, he changed Jeezy's word from "Cheah" to "Jeah" to make it his own. He explains it using monosyllabic words and grunts on this riveting video here. Warning: That video is cringeworthy. Not only is it the worst catchphrase on Earth and more than likely stolen, he believes in his pea-sized brain that he needs to trademark this amazing catchphrase to capitalize monetarily.

There are countless other examples of his world-class ~~swimming~~ douchebaggery, but I will leave you with some words of wisdom from Ryan Lochte's very own Twitter feed:

You're not one of the greatest athletes. Get over yourself. I assume you meant "plan" instead of "plain also, since God definitely doesn't have a "plain" for everyone. I see you got your catchphrase slipped in there too. Good for you!!

The only thing that is second is you in every race you swim. Way to be second best.

What?

I could use some explanation about what the fuck this means.

Don't you literally do the opposite of that when you jump into a pool?

It's almost as if he's just pointing blindly at a dictionary to decide what word to use next.

The stars are infinitely further away from Earth than the Moon, Ryan.

And finally, some motivational words from America's dumbest dbag:

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Three Fantasy Football Thoughts

2012-09-19T20:11:00.001-04:00

It's been over two weeks since I last posted, but with the start of school happening I've been caught up getting used to the new school year. Anyway I figured I'd make a list of 3 things I have noticed so far this year in fantasy football. Some of my observations are more in depth (e.g. number 2) while some are more quick (e.g. number 1). It's totally random.

Three Observations

Fantasy owners don't find this funny

1. Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Jamaal Charles
Through two weeks CJ0K, DMC, and J-Mail (I so dearly love bad nicknames) have combined for 29 fantasy points. That's six "weeks" of fantasy action from three consensus top ten running backs. That's an average of 4.8 points per game for these three. If you project that over a sixteen game season this player would end with 77 fantasy points. Trent Richardson has averaged 14 fantasy points per game over two weeks, and is the #10 fantasy running back. Over 16 games Richardson would score 224 fantasy points, giving the fake running back a massive VADP of -147. Whew that's brutal. If you own them I'd be worried, Charles not so much because it seems he might've gotten injured in his most recent game. All three are good "buy-low" candidates, but only if you can get them for pretty darn low. Right now they are all #2 running back starters, but I wouldn't feel confident starting any of them.

2. Wide Receiver is a Mess

Jumping into the top ten

Only nine wide receivers scored 10 points or more in both week 1 and 2. Only three scored 12 or more in both week 1 and 2. None scored 15 or more in both week 1 or 2. As a fantasy owner this frightens me. As a fantasy owner I want to own one of those nine, and especially one of those three. The nine are Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Brandon LaFell, Malcolm Floyd, Steve Johnson, Brandon Gibson, Steve Smith, and Percy Harvin. Not one of those players was ranked as a top ten fantasy player in ESPN's standard wide receiver rankings. The three are Demaryius, Wayne, and Austin. Of those three none am I comfortable saying are going to be top 10 receivers this year (though I think Wayne and Demaryius have a pretty good chance). Fantasy points are a good indicator of a wide receivers ongoing value, but targets and yards I find much more interesting. In terms of yards, the only players to accumulate over 75 yards both weeks are Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Desean Jackson, Roddy White, Percy Harvin, and Demaryius Thomas. Those six are another six who I feel comfortable starting, and considering high end fantasy performers. Lastly the group of players who have gotten at least seven targets in both games is slightly larger, but still important. This list contains Danny Amendola, Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin, Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Brian Hartline, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Donnie Avery, Santonio Holmes, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Denarius Moore, Eric Decker, Mohammed Massaquoi, Michael Crabtree, and Julio Jones.

Do the John Wall...

If you combine a players targets per game, fantasy points per game, and yards per game divided by eight (you divide the players yards per game by 8 in order to balance that number with the rest), and you average the total you get a metric I made up myself called estimated fantasy value (EFV). Using only players in one of the first two groups above (group three players can have skewed totals if they had one big game, and then another poor game where all they got were the targets) I came up with a list of top wide receivers based on their performance so far, and how it should translate to the future. 1. Reggie Wayne - 12.7 2. Demaryius Thomas - 11.92 3. Roddy White 10.94 4. Percy Harvin 10.92 5. Calvin Johnson - 10.77 6. Steve Smith - 10.21 These six are the top half of the 12 players who I "graded," and these were the only six to post scores higher than ten. Many of the players who I did not grade would have posted scores higher than ten, and Danny Amendola in fact would register a score of 13.31. This however is largely skewed by one game, and Amendola is a great example because his first game would have only been an 8.25. To be an elite #1 wide receiver in fantasy football you need to show fantasy owners that you can consistently produce at a high level, even when you don't get the touchdowns that are so important. By the end of the season there probably will be 5-10 players who fall into that category. Of the group above Roddy White and Calvin Johnson were considered locks for that group pre-season, and based on their performance so far I think they will end up that way. The remaining four contains to aging players in Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne, and two up and comers in Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas. I think Thomas and Harvin have better odds of keeping up their impressive pace, and Smith and Wayne will more likely finish in the 10-15 range.

3. TE is Crazy Deep

The tight ends are coming!

Much of the Fantasy discussion coming into this year was about how crazy deep wide receiver is. Wide Receiver does have a lot of talent, but it's unpredictable. In the last section I tried to highlight some wide receivers who are definite starters right now. Even with all my work, I only came up with six names by the end (and frankly I'm not too sure about Steve Smith). For those who like the mellow side of life. For those who are better safe than sorry. For those who tend to err on the side of caution. I present to you the tight end. I do not deny that Wide Receivers have tons more upside than tight ends, and you'll find way more wide receivers scoring fifteen plus points than tight ends. However in the 7-15 point range no one is as sweet as the tight end. Despite the fact that their are nearly triple as many wide receivers who could be considered relevant in fantasy, there are just as many consistent tight ends as wide receivers. A wide receiver who gives you ten points or more will generally be a top 15 wide receiver in a given week. A tight end who gives you seven points or more will generally be a top 12 tight end in a given week. Nine wide receivers had back to back games of over ten points, and eight tight ends had back to back games of over seven points. If you are the type of fantasy owner who likes to play it safe, or you are strong at running back and quarterback I strongly recommend trying to acquire a high end tight end. With a good fantasy team having balanced production from the tight end slot versus having volatile production at wide receiver can be the difference between a Championship and missing the playoffs. In fact the new ESPN standard rules this year allows teams to play TE's at the flex, so if you really wanted to play it safe you could get a second starter level TE (I'd say there's about 11 of them) to play at the flex position. If you have a good roster in which your flex position is already strong I don't think this is a great strategy, but if your team is in need of some stability going after a TE might not be too bad an idea.

Greg Jennings out of Green Bay?

2012-09-13T12:49:00.003-04:00

An interesting story out of Wisconsin, as Packers beat writer Bob Mcginn, known as one of the most respected beat writers in the entire NFL, wrote an article about how the Pack would be wise to deal All-Pro receiver Greg Jennings before the October 30 trade deadline. As stunning as this may sound, McGinn makes some very valid points, most notably the fact that Green Bay has no chance of resigning Jennings after this year, so either way this will be his last in Green Bay. But I'd rather not focus on whether the Packers will decide to keep Jennings this year, and instead speculate on what teams may make an offer if this does happen. So here it goes.

Miami Dolphins
As we all saw on Hard Knocks and throughout the season, the Dolphins don't have any good receivers. The recent addition of Anthony Armstrong helps, but it doesn't help significantly. I'm a firm believer that quarterbacks make great wide receivers (with some rare exceptions) and not the other way around. But a veteran receiver as talented as Jennings could be crucial in the development of rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. Jennings has plenty of good football left, and he would instantly become Tannehill's favorite target. Couple that with the fact that Jeff Ireland is certainly on the hot seat, and he may feel pressured to bring in a target like Jennings for their franchise quarterback.

A deal to Miami definitely makes sense, but they may be beyond fixing for the foreseeable future, which would make a second-round pick more valuable than Jennings.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Another team that could use weapons at the wide receiver position, the Jaguars would be tempted to make an offer on Jennings. This is a similar situation to Miami, in which they would like to have a go-to guy for their young quarterback, but the Jaguars are a more complete football team than the Dolphins, so bringing in a veteran could be just the right push that this team needs. Jennings won't make the Jaguars a good football team, but he is a piece that could move them closer to competing in the AFC South. Also, Shahid Khan would love to bring in a big name like Greg Jennings to bolster the Jaguars into relevance.

San Diego Chargers
Even though Philip Rivers and the Chargers played well on Monday night, it's clear that Rivers doesn't have much confidence in his receivers. Malcom Floyd looked solid, Meachem had a big catch, but they still need a #1 receiver in San Diego. This team is looking to make some noise this year in the NFL, and they easily could with a couple more players. I'm not sure trading a high draft pick for a veteran is the Chargers style, but the move makes sense, and they could legitimately pull the trigger on this deal.

Seattle Seahawks
Maybe the only positive from trading Jennings is being able to control which team he ends up with. This is probably the least likely, as the Packers would like to keep a guy like Jennings out of the NFC, if possible, but ultimately they would take the best deal (if this deal ever happens, of course). The Seahawks have brought in Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards, so it is clear that they have been searching for some veteran talent at the receiver position. Jennings is way better than both of those guys, so why not pony up a second rounder and grab him from the Packers?

It will be interesting to see how this story develops. I, for one, can't see a Super Bowl contender trading away their #1 receiver just to get a draft pick. But with the amount of weapons the Packers have, it certainly isn't out of the question. It will be one of the toughest decisions that Ted Thompson ever has to make, and we will see how he handles it.

Early College Football Reaction- Teams that Proved they're Legit Contenders

2012-09-12T23:56:00.002-04:00

by John Huffstetler

After two weeks of College Football season, many teams have stood out for both positive and negative reasons. Other teams have yet to even really start their season (see Florida St.'s wins over Murray St. and Savannah St.), and those teams will be ignored in this article. We will instead focus on teams that have played legit teams in either or both of their first two games and see what we've learned. And anyone who objects to the SEC dominance on this list, I have two things to say: 1) SEC teams have won the last 7 titles and 2) Not many other conferences have played anyone yet!!

Teams that have Proven to be Legit Contenders

Alabama- This isn't exactly a revelation, but the Crimson Tide just looked way more physical up front than Michigan in their 41-14 season opening win. All the questions regarding the big name defensive starters they lost to the NFL were answered in that win. There is clearly still talent there, but it is still yet to be seen how the Tide's defense will hold up against a formidable downfield passing attack. A healthy Tyler Wilson and his Arkansas squad could test their pass defense, but Wilson is questionable to play this Saturday after their disastrous loss to ULM following his injury. Without a healthy Wilson, Alabama will be 5-0 on October 13th entering back-to-back road trips to Missouri and Tennessee.

Clemson- Their opening week victory over Auburn was the best game of the young season so far. They managed to survive their test against Auburn without stud WR Sammy Watkins (who returns from suspension next week), and looked terrific in the process. The defense is definitely improved under former Oklahoma DC Brent Venables, and the offense is loaded with highlight-reel players (see any of Andre Ellington's runs this season). Additionally, the schedule is not that daunting with only four difficult games remaining (at Florida St., home against GaTech, VaTech, and SC). If they get through Florida St in two weeks (and I consider them the favorite to win that game), they will need just a few home wins to reach the ACC Championship game undefeated.

Georgia/Florida/ South Carolina- Each of the big three teams in the SEC east (no offense to a strong but outmatched Tennessee team) showed up with huge road wins in dangerous spots in the first two weeks. South Carolina had every excuse to fold in week one at Vandy and walk out with a loss after starting QB Conner Shaw injured his shoulder, but the defense stepped up and played a fantastic second half to secure the victory. Dylan Thompson then took over at QB the next week and looked like a superstar against ECU. Ditto for Florida after trailing at Texas A+M on the road only to show up after halftime and shut down the A+M attack. The offense is questionable, but the defense looks outstanding at times. Despite all the suspensions, Georgia rebounded from a halftime deficit at Missouri by winning the turnover battle and giving Aaron Murray time to pick apart the Tiger defense.

The problem with these three teams is that they all must face each other and only one team can potentially emerge. Which one? Here is the Math: Times each team plays either LSU or Alabama in the regular season- Florida 1, South Carolina 1, Georgia 0. Georgia has by far the easiest schedule, and unfortunately in the current system, an easy schedule plays a large role in who can make a run at the title. Georgia benefitted last year from avoiding both LSU and Alabama in the regular season and advanced to the title game despite a home loss to South Carolina. Georgia only has two tough road tests left (at South Carolina and Auburn) and a neutral site tilt against Florida. They have a great shot at the SEC championship and the national title game.

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NFL Week 1 Reactions

2012-09-12T13:51:00.002-04:00

Week 1 is in the books and, as usual, it lived up to the hype. For die-hard football fans, the first Sunday of the NFL season is the only holiday that can give Christmas morning a run for its money. Records were broken, rookies made an impact and the New England Patriots won their first game of the season for the 9th consecutive year. Here are some initial reactions from the first Sunday of the 2012 season.

RG3 is not RG-Leaf

The Washington Redskins have to be pleased, as they were able to do something nobody else has done since 2010--beat the Saints in the Superdome. It was a collective team effort, and Robert Griffin was the first to point that out, but the rookie quarterback was nothing short of sensational in his first NFL start. He started out with short passes and screens, found his rhythm, and he was shredding the Saints secondary before they even knew what hit them. While I have been one of the biggest RG3 supporters around, there has definitely been some skepticism about his abilities and projected success in the NFL. The comparisons to Leaf, however, were unwarranted, as RG3 wasn't entering the NFL with the same character questions as Leaf. Anyway, it was great to see RG3 silence what few critics he had, and he looks poised for a great career.

Andrew Luck will be great, but he won't be great this year

RG3 is undoubtedly in a much better situation than Andrew Luck. While the Redskins have some franchise pieces in place, the Colts are the worst team in the league. For them to win games, Luck will have to be perfect, and I just don't see that happening much while playing behind a poor offensive line. Indianapolis will have to get used to some growing pains for the next year or two, until they are able to put some pieces together around Andrew Luck. Despite the four turnovers yesterday, I was impressed with the rookie quarterback's performance, and it's clear to me that he and RG3 are head-and-shoulders above the other quarterbacks from their draft class.

The Patriots and 49ers were the most impressive teams, by far

Let's start with the 49ers, who were able to go into Lambeau and come away with a dominating performance. I was most impressed with the running game, and if this team continues to dominate up front, both offensively and defensively, they will cruise through the regular season. They have everything that you could ask for except for a franchise quarterback, but Alex Smith is doing his very best impression of one.

While the 49ers were in Lambeau, seemingly continuing last year's identity, the Patriots decided to have a bit of an identity change on Sunday. New England was able to rush the passer, stop the run, lockdown in the secondary and run the football. The Patriots haven't looked this complete since 2004, when they were able to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I still have my concerns about the offensive line from their preseason performances, but I expect the issues up front to be taken care of.

Not the same offense in Atlanta

The Falcons have finally stepped away from the ground and pound approach and given Matt Ryan the keys to the offense, and what a nice offense it is. With Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez to throw to, the Falcons will be tough to stop this year. The reason they were left out of the "most impressive" discussion is that the offense was a bit one-dimensional and the defense was spotty at times. But Falcons fans definitely have something to look forward to, and I can guarantee the Giants won't hold them to 2 points this year.

Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning

To all of us that doubted Manning's ability to come back this season, shame on us. He still may not be 100%, but he is a top-5 QB in this league right now. The Broncos are in a great position to win that division, and I'd actually be shocked if they didn't, unless we see a meteoric rise from San Diego or Kansas City this year.

The Eagles aren't nearly as good as they are on paper

Before the season started, I had the Eagles pegged as a 13-3 team, with the possibility to go 15-1. I loved what they did during the offseason, both in the draft and in free agency. After yesterday's performance, you can tell that they still are unable to put it all together, but it's hard to figure out why. A lot of the blame can be placed on Michael Vick, but at the end of the day, a win is a win, and the Eagles are moving on to Week 2 with a perfect record intact. It will be interesting to see how the quarterback situation progresses if Vick throws a couple more games like this, as Nick Foles was very impressive in preseason action.

The Bears are good, but can they overtake the Packers?

Brandon Marshall looked every bit as advertised on Sunday against the Colts, but we shouldn't overreact to the licking that the Bears put on the worst team in the league. Having said that, there's plenty here. A strong offense, finally with a weapon at the receiver position, and a very talented defense make the Bears one of the most balanced teams in the league. If guys stay healthy, the Bears could be the NFC North champs when it's all said and done. We will find out a lot about both these teams tomorrow night, and we will see who has some mental toughness coming off of a short week.

Second year QBs looked OK in Week 1

Ponder and Gabbert went against each other on Sunday, and both looked like they could be solid NFL quarterbacks this year. I like Ponder better than Gabbert, but Gabbert put together a decent game. Look for Ponder to be one of the most improved players this season, and hopefully Blaine will follow suit.

The NFC East and NFC North are the class of the league

With the Redskins on the rise, the NFC East looks to be the toughest division this year. At the beginning of the season, it was definitely considered a 3-horse race, but after RG3's performance, we can now consider it a 4-team battle. The NFC North is also incredibly competitive, with 3 teams in the upper echelon in the NFC. The Vikings may struggle this year, but if Christian Ponder can improve as I think he is capable of, they could be right there at 8-8 when it's all said and done. I still don't like their secondary, but Harrison Smith looked like a good addition on Sunday. We all know what the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Lions and Bears are capable of, so either way, both of these divisions are great.

Check back next Wednesday for Week 2 Reactions.

Random Thoughts on NFL Teams: A NFL Preview

2012-09-01T16:01:00.002-04:00

MVP (Regular Season): Aaron Rodgers
He's just really freaking good. Yah that is my only argument.

NFC

NFC EAST

1. New York Giants
This pains me dearly. I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to write anything coherent for the rest of the conference. (REVERSE JINX!!!)
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Whole season depends on Vick's health. He alone can vault this team to Super Bowl contention, but if he's not on the field there not going to make the playoffs.
3. Washington Redskins
In the first Redskins versus Eagles game ESPN is going to play up the whole "running quarterbacks duel" wayyyyyyyyyy to much. I'm already having nightmares.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys are a banged up team that has a lot of good players. Not much depth after their "stars," and crappy offensive line play submarines America's team.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers
I except a regression from last year, but with Harbaugh at the helm they'll stay on top of this pathetic division.
2. Seattle Seahawks
All aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon! All aboard! Damn, people are jumping on this bandwagon nearly as fast as the new look Lakers. Luckily I pre-ordered my ticket when I heard that Matt Flynn was supposed to be the starter.
3. Arizona Cardinals
"Larry Fitzgerald breaks away from the defense. He's open near the end zone as the pass goes up. (Cardinals fans sighing loudly in background) Skelton's pass sails out of bounds, and the Cardinals are going to have to punt again."
4. St. Louis Rams
Bradford has looked good in pre-season, but this receiving corps is the only one that I think is worse than the Jets. The Rams are getting better... it's just not happening fast enough.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers
The biggest question entering this Packers season for everyone is, "What will the next discount double check add be about?"
2. Detroit Lions
Assuming Matthew Stafford can stay healthy again this season I expect a very similar season for the Lions. They are going to throw the ball a ridiculous amount, and luckily they've got Megatron.
3. Chicago Bears
I'm not sure why everyone has decided the Bears are going to be a sleeper team this year. They have a slightly above-average defense, and a average offense. However, they have freaking Jay Cutler at quarterback. Jay Cutler!
4. Minnesota Vikings
I still can't decide whether Christian Ponder is going to be a solid Quarterback or not. I also can't decide whether Toby Gerhart is a good Running Back or not. They both appear bad in the scouting report, but look fairly good in game action.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons
This Falcons team has a ridiculous amount of weapons on offense, and with a solid defense they should catapult to the division title. The big question though is whether Matt Ryan's "Matty Ice" moniker is a sex-tape name for Matt Ryan or him fantasizing about a rap career.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are the anti-Bears in the NFC this year. Everyone is way too down on the Saints this year. If we've learned anything from the last couple football seasons it is that great quarterbacks succeed. I think the Saints will get worse, but will have a similar season to Detroit circa 2011-2012. (I can't believe I got throughout without a bounty gate joke).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I like Josh Freeman to have a bounce back year, but this team just doesn't have enough talent all-around to compete with the Saints and Falcons.
4. Carolina Panthers
I absolutely love Cam Newton. I absolutely hate the rest of this Panthers team. Just like last year Cam will generate hype and make some highlights, but this team isn't going anywhere. (Despite this brilliant add by Matt Kalil)

NFC Wildcards: New Orleans and Detroit (That's right, thought the seeding is different I think the exact same teams will make the NFC playoffs this year. Yeah now that I think about it, that's probably not going to happen)

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay versus Atlanta (Matty Ice gunning for the Super Bowl)

NFC Champion: Green Bay

AFC

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
With the easiest schedule in football, and one of the best teams in football it doesn't take a genius to see the Patriots winning this division.
2. Buffalo Bills
If it's true that Fitzpatrick was injured for most of last season I think the Bills will wind up as one of those 9-7 teams that gets a couple wins over some great team's, but also craps their pants against some bad teams.
3. New York Jets
If the Jets are under 500% after five games this season it's going to be Tebow Time. In all truthfulness I think that will make this NFL season 5% better. Even if he sucks (which I'm starting to think he does), he's a helluva lot more exciting to watch than Mark Sanchez.
4. ~~Ryan Tannehill Sucks~~ Miami Dolphins
You know when you're in the same division as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sachez, and Tim Tebow and you're still the worst quarterback in the division you've got problems. Ryan Tannehill ladies and gentleman.

AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos
This is a case of, "well the Raiders have Palmer, the Chiefs have Cassel and Crenell, and the Chargers have Norv. This is not a case of, "I love the fact that the Broncos have a 36 year old quarterback coming off his fourth neck surgery." That being said, the Broncos have far and away the best defense in this division.
2. San Diego Chargers
Phillip Rivers and Josh Freeman are buddies in the "we had a lot of hype coming into last year, but then had horrible seasons while throwing a ton of picks" group that is going to bounce back this year. C'mon Norv I believe in your horrible decision making.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a coach and quarterback with a track history of absolutely positively sucking. However, they have good defensive talent, a solid offensive line, and a nice two-headed backfield monster of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis.
4. Oakland Raiders
Carson Palmer hasn't been good in five years. Darren McFadden hasn't been healthy his whole life. The Oakland Raiders haven't had a winning record since 2002. All of these things will remain to be true. (I actually expect the Raiders to be like 6-10 or 7-9, bad, but not horrible).

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens
Even without T. Sizzle for some of the season the Ravens will be sizzling to first place. That pun was even worse than I thought it was going to be.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
I expect improvement from Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Jermaine Gresham this year. I also think Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a slight upgrade over Cedric Benson. Overall the Bengals will just be a better version of last year's team.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Still got a pretty good defense, but have no running game and only average passing game. All that means is a big drop for the Steelers.
4. Cleveland Browns
Has the combination of "28 year old rookie QB", "injury prone rookie RB", "shaky offensive line", and "sports team in Cleveland" ever worked out well? No I didn't think so.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans
If Matt Schaub has a good season (which means Andre Johnson probably has a good season) this is a super bowl contender. If not, they are a weak playoff team with a great defense, and the best running game in football.
2. Tennessee Titans
I'm one of the few people who thinks the Titans are a playoff caliber team. I'm also one of the few people who thinks Jake Locker is not going to suck. Locker has good threats in the passing game (Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright), and a dynamic running back to take pressure off him. With a good defense and offensive line also the Titans are my team that sneaks into the playoffs this year (Every year a team sneaks into the playoffs because they're in a bad division, and they're slightly better than people think. The Titans are that team.)
3. Indianapolis Colts
Do I think they will be good? No. Do I think they will be better than the Jaguars? Yes.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
I have to admit that Blaine Gabbert has looked better this pre-season. I don't think it's possible that he could have looked any worse. If the MJD holdout continues the Jaguars might have 0-16 potential. Last year the Jaguars had the worst offense in the NFL (based on yards per game). Last year Maurice Jones-Drew accounted for basically 50% of that offense (47.7% to be exact). I think the message is clear. The Jaguars should be forcing Jones-Drew to sign at all costs.

AFC Wildcards: Cincinnati and Tennessee (Like I said, Tennessee is undeserving, but will sneak in.)

AFC Championship Game: New England versus Houston (Matt Schaub will be decent this year)

AFC Champion: New England (As a diehard Pats fan, I really didn't want to jinx them by predicting them to do well. I just looked at the field and decided that the Patriots had clearly the most offensive talent int the AFC, and if the Defense was even a little better than last year they can make it back to the Super Bowl.)

SUPER BOWL WINNER: New England defeats Green Bay (I repeat my thoughts from above. I hate predicting my team to win, but they are absolutely loaded offensively. If the defense becomes only slightly below average I think the Pats will be the best team in football. I also think Bill Belichek is going to come into this year pissed off, and just command the Patriots to victory.)

Mega Fantasy Sleepers Preview: Steals, Robberies, and Hijackings

2012-08-24T14:13:00.001-04:00

Boom goes the Dynamite!!!

In Fantasy Football what's most important when valuing individual players, or your team as a whole is not how well your players perform, but how much your players exceed expectations. Last year in Fantasy Football Calvin "Megatron" Johnson was fantasy's number one overall receiver. Victor Cruz meanwhile was the number five scoring fantasy receiver. If you had the option between Cruz and Megatron last year I don't think anyone would say Cruz. However, if you could choose between Calvin Johnson in the third round, and an un-drafted Victor Cruz you would be smart to take Cruz. This is because of a metric I created myself called Value Above Draft Position or VADP. For example Cruz was an un-drafted player in most standard 10-team leagues with a 16 player roster size. This means that however many wide receivers are taken within the top 160 Cruz would need to out perform to exceed his draft day value. This year 50 wide receivers are being taken in the top 160 draft picks on average on ESPN. Assuming the number was relatively the same Victor Cruz's VADP would be however much he outscored the 50th highest scoring wide receiver. Last year Victor Cruz scored 198 fantasy points while Mike Williams of Tampa Bay scored 85 points making him the 50th highest scoring wide receiver. This means Victor Cruz has a 2011 VADP of 113. Calvin Johnson on the other hand was on average taken in the late second round at 17th overall. Since Johnson was on average the 5th wide receiver off the board his VADP will compare his point scoring to that of the fifth overall wide receiver. Coincidentally that receiver happens to be Victor Cruz. Cruz scored 198 points and Johnson scored 254 giving Johnson a VADP of 56. This means that while Johnson had a great season, Victor Cruz was more valuable.

By now it should be clear that a fantasy football player should not be judged based on how many points they score, but instead on how valuable that player was. Here are some players I think are being significantly undervalued, and will end up posting good VADP marks. A steal is considered a player who I think should be going about a round earlier. A robbery is considered a player who I think should be going about two rounds earlier. A hijacking is considered a player who I think should go three or more rounds earlier. Position by position I'm going to give one hijacking, steal, and robbery.

QB

Steal: Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is on average going as the 11th quarterback and 62nd overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. The Atlanta Falcons have a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter who though he does not have much offensive success in the past has said he is going to open things up in the passing game this year. Matt Ryan has a great pass catching back in Jacquizz Rodgers, a very good third receiver in Harry Douglas, and two dynamic all-pro receivers that complement each other well. With both Julio Jones and Roddy White to throw to, and another year in the bag for Ryan I think he should improve upon last year and become a top-ten QB in fantasy football this year.

Robbery: Robert Griffin III

Robert Griffin is on average going as the 13th quarterback and 85th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. RG3 is a rookie quarterback so obviously he is a big risk, but I think he has huge fantasy potential. The past two seasons the Redskins have insisted on throwing the ball a lot despite the fact that they have had Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and the guy who makes Tim Tebow look like Tom Brady in John Beck throwing the ball. In fact the Redskins have finished top-five in the league in pass attempts both years with Mike Shanahan as the head coach. Now that Shanahan has a quarterback with some skill I think there is no reason he wouldn't pass that much, and RG3 should benefit. I think on passing alone Griffin will be a borderline fantasy starter, and finish somewhere in the 10-12 range at QB. What makes him special is I think he will also rack up some points via his running ability, and become a top-ten fantasy QB.

Hijacking: Jake Locker

Jake Locker is on average going as the 25th quarterback and the 143rd overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. I think Locker's stock will rise a little more after some stellar pre-season performances and recently being named the starter, but the stock won't rise enough. Jake Locker is an incredible athlete with big arm strength, and a 4.59 40 yard dash time. That's the same time as fantasy stud and fellow second year quarterback Cam Newton. Locker has some serious pass accuracy, and decision making issues but the news out of training camp is that he has been dramatically improving. With all the physical tools to be a stud, a running back like Chris Johnson to take pressure off him, and receiving threats in Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and rookie Kendall Wright I think Locker will have a good year. Locker has the upside to be a top-ten QB with his running ability and throwing tools, but at the very least I think he should be a quality backup in ten team leagues who should go as about the 15th quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts.

RB
Steal: Jamaal Charles

"High Five!"

Jamaal Charles is on average going as the 11th running back and the 25th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. Charles has looked great so far in pre-season, and there are no doubts that he will start come week one. I think it is possible Charles won't be quite the same guy as he was pre-injury, but I think he will be very close to as good. Another concern with fantasy owners is that Charles will have to compete with Peyton Hillis for goal line work, but that is not a legitimate concern. In 2010 when Charles posted the 4th best season among running backs that year Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards while getting most of the goal line work. Charles is such a dynamic back that he doesn't need to worry about Hillis, and it's not like the Chiefs are going to throw the ball. I think Charles will end the season around the fifth overall running back (I have him ranked seventh), and should be considered an early second round pick.

Robbery: Cedric Benson

Cedric Benson is on average going as the 38th running back and 105th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. The running backs going 35th to 40th around Benson are Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, and David Wilson. Ingram is in a time share with Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Spiller is a backup to Fred Jackson, Donald Brown sucks, Gerhart is a backup to Adrian Peterson, and David Wilson is a backup to Ahmad Bradshaw. Cedric Benson meanwhile is a clear cut starter who finished as Fantasy's number 23 running back last season. I guess some people haven't got the memo that James Starks is not going to be sharing carries with Benson because there is no reason he should be going so late. I'm not saying Benson is a dynamic back by any means (in fact I think Spiller, Wilson, and Gerhart are all much better and are good sleepers/handcuff backs who will do good if the opportunity arises), but in fantasy football opportunity matters more than talent. Benson is probably not going to get a ton of carries in such a great passing attack, but I think he will slowly trot out a top-30 RB season. By no means would I draft Benson as a starter in fantasy, but I think he will be a good bye-week fill in and occasional flex play.

Hijacking: Doug Martin

Doug Martin is on average going as the 28th running back and 80th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. Martin is a 5-9 223 pound running back who ran a 4.43 40, is a good pass blocker, and a very capable receiving back. The player who he reminds most of is Ray Rice. Rice is a 5-8 212 pound running back who ran a 4.42 40, is a good pass blocker, and a very capable receiving back. With Legarette "Imma punch you" Blount (a notoriously bad pass blocker, receiving back, and runner) as his only backfield competition I think Martin should get the bulk of the carries for Tampa Bay as soon as he steps on the field. I think Martin will end the season as a borderline top 20 fantasy running back, and will be a quality starter as a running back two in fantasy football most weeks.

WR
Steal: Brandon Lloyd

Brandon Lloyd is on average going as the 17th wide receiver and the 50th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. Lloyd is an incredibly dynamic deep ball threat who has arguably the best deep ball thrower in football as his quarterback. Lloyd also has Josh McDaniels who was his offensive coordinator in Denver and St. Louis on the team, and McDaniels loves to throw to Brandon Lloyd. With Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez all taking the defenses attention away from him Lloyd should be open on a lot of deep balls, and Tom Brady is more than capable of hitting him in stride for the touchdown. Lloyd will finish as a top-15 wide receiver, and with top-ten upside Lloyd should be going around 35th overall in my mind. As a Patriots fan still suffering from that brutal Super Bowl defeat I am ecstatic about the addition of Lloyd to this already imposing passing attack.

Robbery: Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith is on average going as the 30th wide receiver and the 89th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. This makes no sense to me at all, and this is why: Last year Torrey Smith finished as the #22 overall fantasy football wide receiver as a rookie. Most second year players improve from their past season. Joe Flacco is a young quarterback who loves to throw the deep ball, and Torrey Smith is super fast and loves to run for the deep ball. Anquan Boldin was Smith's main competition last year for targets, and he's just getting older. Smith has looked great for the Ravens so far in pre-season, and should have a great top-20 season at Wide Receiver this year. In my mind he should be going in the late 6th round making him a "hijacking" who I only called a robbery because the next guy on this last is a true hijacking.

Hijacking: Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is on average going as the 18th wide receiver and the 56th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. Last year Percy Harvin finished as the #8 wide receiver in fantasy football and was incredible in the second half of last season. I think Percy Harvin will be able to stay healthy, and be one of the focal points of this Vikings offense. The news from Vikings camp is that Christian Ponder and Harvin have developed a strong connection, and Harvin should continue to thrive. With Adrian Peterson coming back from his ACL surgery I think Harvin will get some rushes in the backfield to boost his stats just like he did at the end of last year. Most importantly Percy Harvin is a super talented receiver, and is the only talented receiver on a Vikings team meaning he is going to get a ton of opportunity. I think Percy Harvin should be a mid to late third round running back, and will again finish as a top-ten wide receiver in fantasy football.

TE
Steal: Fred Davis

Fred Davis is on average going as the 9th tight end and the 101st overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. See Griffin, Robert. I already talked about how much the Redskins throw the ball. I already talked about how much I love RG3. The reason I like Fred Davis is because of his talent, RG3, and Shanahan's offense. Shanahan traditionally likes to run a lot of QB rollouts, and with a mobile quarterback like Griffin I think that trend will continue. When a QB runs a rollout the TE is generally a primary option on the play, and I think Davis will get a lot of looks on rollouts this year. Fred Davis is going in the early 11th round, but I think he will be a quality TE starter and deserves to go around the 9th round.

Robbery: Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen is on average going as the 15th tight end and the 137th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. Last year Cam Newton threw almost exactly 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns to his tight ends. Those two tight ends were Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey. This year Jeremy Shockey is not on the team. I think Olsen has the potential to have a 1,000 yard 10 touchdown season, but at the very least will have a 800 yard six touchdown season. If he were to have the 800 yard season he would finish with 116 fantasy points which would have put him as the 7th overall fantasy tight end last year. If Olsen were to have a 1,000 yard 10 touchdown season (which I'd say there is about a 25%-33% chance of) he would have been fantasy's #3 tight end last year behind Graham and Gronkowski. I think Olsen has big upside, and should be drafted around 7th at tight end, at about the 75th overall pick.

Hijacking: Jermaine Gresham

Jermaine Gresham is on average going as the 17th tight end and the 139th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts. Gresham is a 6-5 260 tight end who runs a 4.65 40 and is only 24 years old. Gresham was fantastic in college at Oklahoma, and earned a first round pick. With Andy Dalton hopefully improving from last year Gresham should develop a better connection with him. A.J. Green is the only other receiving threat on this team because Brandon Tate is the #2 WR for this time. Tate is by no means a up and coming star like Green, so Gresham should get plenty of targets. Jermaine reminds me of the Graham/Gates type wide receiver like tight ends who just make plays. Even last year when Gresham didn't have a great connection with Andy Dalton he still finished as the #13 fantasy tight end, and a couple jaw dropping highlights like this: Jermaine Gresham One-Handed Catch

There are a ton of potential sleepers in football, and I could write this article again with completely different people, but these are some of the players I feel the strongest about. Jake Locker, Doug Martin, Percy Harvin, and Jermaine Gresham I think are all being significantly undervalued, and I will get Martin in Harvin in almost every league (Locker and Gresham are great, but if I have say Rodgers and Graham I'm not going to go after either of them). All these players are great talents (except for you Cedric Benson), and I think they will all post significantly good VADP numbers. I created VADP while writing this article to try and explain value of certain players, and I think I will continue to use the statistic in my fantasy football analysis.

Fantasy Football: Running Back Team-by-Team Breakdown

2012-08-20T14:11:00.001-04:00

by John and Chris Huffstetler

Philadelphia Eagles everything RB LaSean McCoy

With most fantasy drafts quickly approaching, hopeful fantasy owners are searching for the next breakout Running Back to lead their team to the title. Unfortunately, the RB situation on most NFL teams becomes more muddled each season as the dreaded "running back by committee" situation permeates throughout the league. In order to help you unravel these RB controversies, we will break down every team's RB situation to help you determine which players will emerge and bring in major points this fantasy season.

NFC

East

Washington Redskins- John H.- We'll start our breakdown with the most difficult team to predict in the NFL. I get the feeling Mike Shanahan himself doesn't know who will start at RB for his teams 5 minutes before kickoff. He is notorious for employing the "hot hand" strategy and playing whoever is breaking the big runs at that moment. Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, and Evan Royster all have an opportunity to contribute in any given week, and, therefore, none of them should be drafted. You will just end up frustrated all year. Draft?- No one

CMH: While this is a muddled backfield, we can still find value in this situation. Helu is not the guy to draft. While his stock is plummeting, it still hasn't plummeted enough from that lofty 5th round ADP. Royster has been starting this preseason, but he lacks burst and he doesn't seem like he will end up being the guy. Which brings us to Tim Hightower, the Incumbent. I like Hightower to get the nod whenever he gets back to form, probably week 1 or 2. The Shanahan's seem to like him, and he has more experience than the rest of the backfield combined. Draft Hightower in the late rounds.

Philadelphia Eagles- John H.- We quickly go from the most difficult situation to the easiest to predict. Nothing Philly has done this offseason indicates anything but a overwhelming number of carries for LeSean McCoy once again this year. He is a solid workhorse that should not last past #3 in any draft (I would take him #1 overall myself). My only concern is that McCoy did have 321 touches last year, which is an indicator for a potential backslide the following year. I will take the risk at #1 though. Draft?- LeSean McCoy

CMH: The #1 running back last year, and there's no reason to think he won't do it again. He's definitely worth the #1 pick, and don't let him slip past #4.

Giants rookie phenom David Wilson

NY Giants- John H.- The RB situation is interesting this year for the "deserving" Super Bowl Champs. They lose pointless power back Brandon Jacobs, while adding in talented rookie David Wilson to complement Ahmad Bradshaw. Wilson showed a big play capability from the moment he set foot on campus at Virginia Tech and flourished even in their stilted, mediocre offense. Bradshaw's foot is an injury disaster waiting to happen and should be avoided at all costs in any fantasy draft. Because of Wilson's obvious talent and Bradshaw's injury concerns, Wilson is a strong draft sleeper to garner a large number of carries for a strong rushing offense. Draft?- David Wilson

CMH: As much as I hate the Giants, this is one of my favorite backfields in the league. A lot of talent and a lot of potential for some draft day steals. David Wilson is a must-grab in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft. He is explosive and will compete for carries immediately. DJ Ware is also talented, but it's hard to see where he will fit in with Bradshaw and Wilson in the picture. Bradshaw will be good this year, and if you draft him in that 4/5 round range, you will probably get exactly what you paid for. Draft Wilson and Bradshaw here.

Dallas Cowboys- John H.- The 2011 Cowboys backfield was completely unclear entering the season. This year's squad has an obvious #1 in DeMarco Murray and #2 in Felix Jones. Murray showed has big-play capabilities last year late in the season when he earned the starting job. His fractured ankle from late last season is completely meaningless, and he will have a huge season. Helping his cause is the addition of strong veteran FB Lawrence Vickers, who is one of the best in the league. Draft?- DeMarco Murray

CMH: Murray is undervalued this year. He's definitely worth a second-round pick, and may end up having first-round value. Draft him. Everyone else in the backfield is worthless.

North

Detroit Lions- John H.- How many injuries can one team have at RB? The Lions lost their top two in Mikel LeShoure and Jahvid Best for the year early last season and had to rely on off-the-street FA Kevin Smith to lead them on the ground into the playoffs. Heading into this season, Best still hasn't been cleared to play and is a complete unknown for the season. LeShoure, meanwhile, is ready to take the reigns, having suffered his torn ACL before the regular season even began last year. He will miss the first two games of the season, but by week 3, he should be getting 70% of the carries (if Best remains uncleared). Kevin Smith will be the beneficiary once again if both players remain unhealthy. This situation is still quite muddled, but both LeShoure and Smith are worth mid-to-late rounds speculation with the Lions potent offense. Best just can't be trusted. Draft?- Mikel LeShoure or Kevin Smith (if the time is right)

CMH: Avoid this backfield. LeShoure has yet to be healthy during his brief stint in the NFL, Kevin Smith is simply not that good, and who knows when Jahvid Best will be back and what his workload will be. Too many question marks.

Minnesota Vikings- John H.- Adrian Peterson is still a supreme talent and will be the feature of the offense when he returns from his injury, but don't expect the same AD, especially in the first 8 weeks of the year. He will be a second half fantasy value. His draft position is about where he should be selected because of the injury questions. Draft?- Adrian Peterson

CMH: His quick rehabilitation of the ACL injury just goes to show how much of a freak of nature this guy is. He's going in the 2nd, but spice things up and pick him in the late-first/early-second. You won't regret it.

Green Bay Packers- John H.- I'm not even going to bother with this one. No one on the Packers is worth considering. Draft?- No one

CMH: Benson may have the most value now, but I'm still not even sure if he's worth drafting.

New Bears RB Michael Bush

Chicago Bears- John H.- I've never been a huge fan of Matt Forte since his collegiate days. He wasn't impressive at Tulane and he's shown in the NFL the ability to get exactly what the offensive line gives him and rarely more; however, talent doesn't matter in fantasy. It's all about opportunity, and Forte will get plenty of opportunities. The addition of Michael Bush will replace the carries of Marion Barber, but the main worry with the addition of Bush is his goal line ability. Bush could "Vulture" (god, I hate that term) Forte's goal line carries and rack up some TD's as he has in the past for the Raiders. Draft?- No one but Forte isn't a terrible pick

CMH: I was big on Forte this year before the Michael Bush signing. Then, before preseason started, I was still high on him, just not as high. Now, after watching two games, Forte will have trouble finding the endzone all year. While he will still have tons of touches on the ground and through the air, it's extremely frustrating as a fantasy owner to have Michael Bush taking all your goal line carries. Since I can't stand it, I'm avoiding this situation.

South

Atlanta Falcons- John H.- Michael Turner has been the feature back in Atlanta since he joined the via free agency back in '08. Turner showed signs last year of a severe lack of burst, making his "burner" nickname more ironic than accurate. He still, however, rushed for 1340 yards and scored 11 TD's on the ground. This season should mark a greater decline off of his strong numbers since joining the Falcons. Quizz Rodgers should also take some of the workload, as he is too talented to keep on the bench. Neither player is worth taking however, as Turner has no value where he will be drafted, but he will also most likely remain healthy most of the year giving no one else an opportunity. Draft?- No One

CMH: I'm avoiding Turner, but I do like 'Quizz' this year. Mike Smith has said throughout camp that he sees Rodgers as a 3-down back. That sounds like the early indications of a RB controversy to me. It doesn't hurt to invest a late-round pick in Rodgers, especially in deeper leagues.

New Orleans Saints- John H.- Once again, the Saints enter the season with a crowded backfield, leaving few options for fantasy owners. Mark Ingram could have a good season, but it is hard to tell if he will get any more carries than Pierre Thomas, or if they will split touches like last year. The only possible RB to draft, as a result, is Darren Sproles. Sproles finished last year with 86 receptions, and he still has tremendous value in a PPR league, despite the crowded nature of the backfield. Thomas and Ingram will be inconsistent from week to week, which is a recipe for disaster in fantasy leagues. Draft?- Darren Sproles in a PPR or 1/2 PPR

CMH: Draft Sproles. That's for sure. Even if you aren't in a PPR league, he will still have value, just not 3rd round value. After that, it's cloudy in New Orleans. I'm a Mark Ingram hater, but I think he will have a good year this year. He will take over as the feature back in New Orleans, for whatever that's worth. He definitely has some late-round value.

Enigmatic Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount

Tampa Bay Bucs- John H.- This offseason, the Bucs added marginally talented, but versatile Boise St. back Doug Martin to complement LeGarrette Blount. Martin's avg draft position has been much higher than Blount's so far this year, which shows the perception of most people is that Martin will get the bulk of the carries. After all, first year head coach Greg Schiano did spend his first ever draft choice to select Martin. That says exactly what Schiano thinks of him. There is a track record, however, of rookie RB's that are expected to start disappointing in their first year because of the pressure (see Ryan Mathews and Daniel Thomas). The situation here should be more of a split than most people believe, with Martin handling the passing downs and Blount handling the rushing downs and the goal line situations. There is some definite value in taking Blount late year, and not much in taking Martin early. Draft?- LeGarrette Blount

CMH: I like Blount's value this year, but all reports have indicated that Doug Martin is absolutely dominating the Bucs camp, and Schiano even said himself that Martin is "doing virtually everything right." The more I think about it, the more I would steer clear of this backfield situation. Both of these backs are talented, but both of them could potentially fall short of expectations this year.

Carolina Panthers- John H.- If it's even possible, the Panthers backfield is even more complicated than last year. They add bruising everything back Mike Tolbert from San Diego to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, giving them a deep and talented backfield. There is no way to draft any player, however, as the breakdown should be about even between Williams and Stewart with a few carries for Tolbert sprinkled in. Draft?- No One

CMH: I like Jonathan Stewart more than most do this year. Newton will be running less this year, and somebody will have to punch the ball into the endzone. Stewart is the man for the job. Look for 12 TDs from him, putting him in that RB2/RB3 range.

West

Niners rookie LaMichael James is the truth. Don't listen to CMH.

San Francisco 49ers- John H.- The Niners backfield is suddenly quite crowded for Frank Gore. This past offseason, they added Brandon Jacobs via free agency and LaMichael James in the draft to join Gore and Kendall Hunter. There is NO WAY that Gore will be able to come close to his production from even last season. Harbaugh brought these other backs in for a reason, and it appears like the Niners will be using the Saints model of RB-by-committee based on situation. The only player worth drafting is LaMichael James on a late flier because he's just too talented to keep on the sideline (think Darren Sproles). Draft?- LaMichael James

CMH: While James is supremely talented, he is currently sitting 4th on the depth chart, so it'll be tough for him to see the field. All reports out of the Niners camp have praised Kendall Hunter's performance thus far, and I think he is the RB to grab in the late rounds here. Avoid Gore like the plague, but feel free to grab Hunter in the later rounds.

Marshawn Lynch aka Beast Mode

Seattle Seahawks- John H.- Beast mode will be in full effect again this year in Seattle. The Seahawks did add a Lynch clone in Robert Turbin through the draft, but Turbin will mainly just spell Lynch when he is tired. He offers nothing different in terms of a skill set than Lynch, which means Lynch will still; receive a large majority of the snaps. Draft?- Marshawn Lynch

CMH: Marshawn is a solid second round pick. Grab him if you can, sit back, and get your Skittles ready.

St. Louis Rams- John H.- Unlike Lynch's situation in Seattle, Jackson has a legitimate new added threat to his touches in 2nd rd pick Isaiah Pead. Pead is a prototype change-of-pace back in the NFL with the ability to take some carries and catch a large volume of passes out of the backfield. St. Louis, however, added 3 OL (including to projected starters) and can only improve upon their terrible offensive line play from last season. Consequently, they should improve offensively across the board under Jeff Fisher and Jackson's numbers should increase despite the increased competition. Draft?- Steven Jackson

CMH: Steven Jackson will be a workhorse this year, and Pead will be a nice change of pace. Nothing new here--draft Steven Jackson in the 3rd like you have the past 8 years.

Arizona Cardinals- John H.- Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells will both receive a large number of carries this year. Do not get fooled by Beanie's success last year after Williams went down for the season. This was designed to be a split-carry backfield, and it will be for as long as these two remain healthy this season. There is some value in drafting Williams of you get him late, but Wells should be avoided at all costs. Draft?- Ryan Williams late

CMH: Ryan Williams has some great late-round value, and Beanie should get a higher percentage of the red zone touches. Whoever stays healthy will have the better year, so draft Ryan Williams here.

AFC

East

New England Patriots- John H.- Another year, another crowded backfield in New England. Stevan Ridley is the most likely candidate to receive the majority of the carries, but Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Joseph Addai, and now Jeff Demps could all receive touches out of the backfield as well. Someone needs to replace, BJGE's 181 carries from last year, however, and Ridley is the strongest every-down back. Still, I would wait to see who emerges in the regular season and pass on everyone in the draft. Draft?- No One

CMH: Pass-happy offense. 5 guys competing for carries. Not exacly your favorite fantasy situation. Reports from camp are that Ridley is back to his old fumbling ways, and the coaches are now starting to favor Vereen. Regardless, neither is worth drafting. Aaron Hernandez might be the best ball-carrier on this team.

Buffalo Bills- John H.- The only thing keeping CJ Spiller from being a star in this league is Chan Gailey. All due respect to Fred Jackson, but Spiller is too talented to keep on the bench. Both players should get ample touches this season, since Buffalo uses their RB's in the passing game frequently (78 combined catches). Gailey has also floated the idea of using Spiller more frequently as a slot receiver. Once all of the feature backs (Lynch, Jackson, Murray, McFadden, etc.) are taken, Jackson is worth taking. Spiller has major value later in the draft. Draft?- Fred Jackson or CJ Spiller

CMH: Both of these guys are being underrated during draft day. They will both be big fantasy factors for where they are being picked, so feel free to reach for both of them in your respective drafts.

Awful Jets feature back Shonn Greene

New York Jets- John H.- Anticipate Shonn Greene getting a decided majority of carries again this year, but Joe McKnight and Tim Tebow will get their names called as well in the rushing game. Of all the clear feature backs in the league, Shonn Greene is by far the worst one in terms of talent and fantasy value. He won't blow anyone away with his stats this year, but he will get at least 250 touches this year barring injury. If the choice is between Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, and Reggie Bush (3 players getting selected ahead of him on average according to ESPN stats), there is no question you should select Greene because of his extra opportunities. Draft?- Shonn Greene

CMH: Shonn Greene is awful, and it doesn't make sense why the Jets are fully invested in him as their running back. I wouldn't pick him ahead of Bush, especially in PPR formats, and I'd be hesitant to take him over Jonathan Stewart, despite his heavy workload. If you do select Shonn Greene, keep an eye out for Bilal Powell, a name you may not have heard before. He is already getting the third-down reps with the first team, and I fully expect him to eat away at Greene's carries as the season progresses. Right now, however, Powell is not worth a look, and Greene isn't either.

Sidenote: The Jets will be one of the worst teams in the league this year.

Miami Dolphins- John H.- With the Dolphins likely downgrading at QB and starting rookie Ryan Tannehill, more pressure will be put on the running game to perform at a high level. Bush and Thomas essentially split carries last year (Bush with 216 and Thomas with 165 with a few games out injured), but Bush added 43 catches in the passing game. This year should be more of the same with these two getting a relatively even split of touches; however, the Dolphins also added rookie Lamar Miller, who could steal a few carries from both of them. Teams questioned Miller's maturity level and NFL readiness prior to the draft slipping him down to the 4th round, so I would expect Miller to play limited snaps in his first season or two. Thomas is the back here with the greatest upside because he will be drafted late and could end up getting a majority of carries, including goal line touches. Draft?- Daniel Thomas

CMH: Bush in PPR formats; Thomas in standard scoring formats. Bush may have better stats in both respects, but Thomas will be more valuable in standard leagues. They are both worth a look on draft day.

North

Baltimore Ravens- Ray Rice should be a top 3 draft pick. Rock solid. Draft?- Ray Rice

CMH: Rice is a stud. Feel free to draft him #1.

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall following his injury last season

Pittsburgh Steelers- The recent news that Rashard Mendenhall might be ready for play early in the regular season has changed the Steelers backfield situation dramatically. Isaac Redman looked like he would be a solid sleeper pick in the middle rounds of the draft, but with Mendenhall's potential return midway through the regular season, Redman's stock takes a small hit. I still think he's worth taking and question how ready Mendenhall will be even when he returns to the field. Mendenhall shouldn't be drafted because before he's ready to play, it's likely that you will need an extra roster spot and release him. Draft? Isaac Redman

CMH: Here's one where I'm going to have to completely disagree. I see Redman as one of the most overrated fantasy options this year. He has limited burst and he's already banged up this preseason. With the news that Mendenhall may be ready after the Week 4 bye, that only proves my point even more. Not to mention, Jonathan Dwyer will be pushing both of them for carries throughout the season, as he's come into camp in the "best shape of his life." Your guess is as good as mine as to who will eventually get the bulk of the carries in this offense, and whoever it is--they are worth a late-round pick. But steer clear of Redman in the middle rounds, as Mendenhall and Dwyer are being drafted much later, and I like both of them more.

Cincinnati Bengals- John H.- BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes to town as the likely starter to replace the remarkably average Cedric Benson. Cincy has a strong offensive line (although better in pass protection than run blocking), and any RB will produce more than Benson's 3.9 ypc last season. This gives BJGE tremendous value if he were to get a decided majority of the carries. The problem is that Marvin Lewis has said he will split carries with Bernard Scott. Overall, they should produce better numbers, but neither player is worth drafting given the situation. Draft?- No One

CMH: Probably the least sexy backfield in the league right now. If you want some average numbers, Green-Ellis is an average draft pick. Double-digit touchdowns and 800 yards seems about right for him. Scott has little fantasy value. I'd steer clear of both, but Green-Ellis will be better.

Browns rookie RB Trent Richardson

Cleveland Browns- John H.- Despite Trent Richardson's preseason injury concerns, he remains a viable fantasy option. The Browns will need to run the ball effectively if they plan on starting Brandon Weeden at QB this season. Richardson will get a large bulk of those carries because the other options (Hardesty and Ogbonnaya) are definite downgrades. If neither player could unseat a struggling and injured Peyton Hillis last season, they won't be able to gain carries against a talent like Trent Richardson. Draft?- Trent Richardson

CMH: By no means am I buying into this Cleveland offense, but Trent Richardson will have a solid year running the football. He's not worth a 2nd/3rd round pick after his injury, however. He needs a lot of touches in this unproven offense to rack up fantasy points, and the Browns are sure to ease him in after the injury. Also, Hardesty has run well this preseason, taking some of the pressure off the coaching staff to use Richardson. By the end of the year, he may be a legitimate RB1, but for now, I see Richardson as a low-end RB2 with upside.

South

Houston Texans- John H.- With their 2nd ranked rushing offense, the Texans approached having two 1,000 yard rushers last season. Arian Foster is an obvious top 3 draft pick (although I would draft McCoy and Rice ahead of him), but the question is whether Ben Tate is worth selecting in the mid-rounds. No. Back-ups can never be consistent scorers in fantasy, and drafting a player hoping that a player gets injured is incredibly foolish (why drafting "handcuffs" is one of the dumbest strategies in fantasy football). Draft? Arian Foster

CMH: Don't let Foster slip past you in your draft. If he's available, you should pick him, no matter where you're picking. Look for Foster to stay healthy this year, making Ben Tate worthless.

Jags holdout RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville Jaguars- John H.- Because of the MJD contract holdout, this would be the one legitimate situation to "handcuff" the starter if you chose to draft him. With MJD's draft position continuing to drop as his holdout continues, he is gaining value in the late-first/early-second round, but drafting Rashad Jennings (the clear replacement and a solid player in his own right) late in the draft would be a smart idea here. Draft?- MJD but get Rashad Jennings late also if you do

CMH: With Jones-Drew's holdout, I worry about his fantasy value this year. He's usually a sure-fire top-5 RB, but running backs have a history of performing very poorly after holdouts. Even though all reports say that Jones-Drew will be back by Week 1, I don't think he has the same first round value. If you can get him in the second, however, it's a steal. Jennings makes sense as a late-round grab, whether you have MJD or not, and he's looked great in preseason. Draft MJD and Jennings.

Indianapolis Colts- John H.- Everyone is terrible and no one knows who will start. Draft?- No one

CMH: The team is horrendous and they have a committee of running backs. Stay away and stop waiting for Donald Brown to have his "breakout year."

Tennessee Titans- John H.-After getting lazy last year during his holdout and missing most of training camp, Chris Johnson had a disappointing season. With Johnson's YPC down to 4.0 last year, Kenny Britt's injury, and the dreadful play of Matt Hasselbeck, the Titans offense struggles to point points on the board. With Britt returning healthy at some point early this season and Jake Locker taking over at QB (hopefully for the Titans sake), the passing game should improve and open up space for Johnson. Johnson will have a dramatically better season and is absolutely worth a 1st round pick. Draft?- Chris Johnson

CMH: Considering you can find him on the board at 8 or 9, CJ is the most valuable pick in this year's fantasy draft. He's my favorite to finish the season with the most fantasy points for RB's, especially if Locker gets the nod as starter and we see more of a 'Run and Gun' offense in Nashville. Johnson ran well against Tampa last week, and he has added 20 pounds to his frame. With a full training camp under his belt, we should see CJ in midseason form by Week 1.

West

Denver Broncos- John H.- With the change at QB from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning, the Broncos will certainly shift to a more pass-oriented attack, and will not approach leading the league in rushing as they did last year. The Broncos also add in supremely talented little-known rookie Ronnie Hillman, who has the potential to take over as the starter at any point this season. Major draft bust Knowshon Moreno also returns from injury hoping to revamp his disappointing career. All three of these factors will precipitate a major drop in production from Willis McGahee this season, making him undraftable. With the potential for Hillman to garner major carries this season and his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, he is worth a late-round speculative pick if you have the patience to hold onto him for a few weeks. Draft?- Ronnie Hillman

CMH: Ronnie Hillman is a talented player, but he's had no time to prove himself this training camp between injuries, and he's currently listed as the third RB in Denver. While I could see Hillman eventually working his way into a timeshare by the end of the year, this is still McGahee's backfield. He's worth a late-round pick. Knowshon Moreno is a fantasy non-factor, currently sitting at fourth on the depth chart. Steer clear.

Chargers RB Ryan Mathews

San Diego Chargers- John H.- Ironically, the injury to Ryan Mathews has dramatically improved his potential value in fantasy drafts. A broken collarbone is a much faster and easier injury for a RB to recover from than a tendon or joint injury. Mathews could even be ready by week 1, yet his draft stock has slide to late 3rd/early 4th round. Putting the injury aside, the Chargers lost goal line back Mike Tolbert in free agency, and Mathews should get significantly more carries in the red zone. Additionally, there is not one other quality RB on the roster. The Chargers have the thinnest backfield in the league, and Mathews will get a large majority of the carries whenever he returns to the field. Draft?- Ryan Mathews

CMH: Until Mathews proves to me that he can stay healthy, I won't draft him again. He has top-5 RB value this year, but I just can't trust him. Having said that, draft him anywhere after the first round, but steer clear of him in the first round, where he was going before the injury.

Oakland Raiders- John H.- The question for Darren McFadden has been, and always will be, his health. When fully healthy, few in the league are more talented than Run DMC, and if he remains healthy this season, this could be his best year yet from a fantasy perspective because of the departure of goal line beast Michael Bush. DMC should get more goal line carries than ever before with the two main backups being smaller, more versatile backs in Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones. Drafting him is a gamble, but it is a gamble I'm willing to take. Draft?- Darren McFadden

CMH: Out of all the elite fantasy running backs, McFadden has the lowest floor, but he may also have the highest ceiling. If he stays healthy, he will finish as a top-4 back this season. Draft him late in the first round.

KC Chiefs- John H.- The problem with the Chiefs backfield this year is that they are too talented and deep. Jamal Charles, Peyton Hillis, and Dexter McCluster are all unique talents deserving of 200 touches this year, but there is only one ball. Jamal Charles should clearly be the feature back getting the bulk of the carries, but his 2nd round draft grade might be too high considering his injury issues and the competition for carries. McCluster, on the other hand, should get a number of touches in the passing game with a now healthy Matt Cassel. With his late round grade, he could be a steal this season. Draft?- Dexter McCluster and consider Jamal Charles in the 3rd round because of his supreme talent

CMH: A crowded backfield in KC, but still a valuable fantasy situation. McCluster has value in PPR formats, but I'd steer clear in standard leagues. Hillis will be a touchdown vulture, and he should average 15-18 touches a game. I like his value in the 9th round or later. Charles should also see 15-18 touches a game, and drafting him in the late second/early third seems like a no brainer. He will break some huge runs this year. Draft? Charles/Hillis.

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Overall Olympic Medals from an Incredibly Biased Perspective

2012-08-16T20:05:00.001-04:00

The Olympics are broken down into two separate weeks for me. Week 1 is owned by swimming and gymnastics, and week 2 is all about team sports and track events. My overall medals are based on which athletes dominated their weeks and caught my attention. This is incredibly biased because it is affected by what I actually watched during the Olympics (otherwise known as you can expect mostly USA athletes in this column.) . So, without further ado we go to the medal ceremony.

WEEK 1

Honorable Mention: Ryan Lochte, Ye Shiwen, and Aly Raisman

Aly wonders if McKayla is impressed with how gold tastes?

Worth mentioning are Ryan Lochte, who for one night was anointed as the greatest swimmer on earth, and then came crashing back down to just one of the greatest. Seeing the fall in popularity of Lochte was stunning. After that 400 IM on the first night of the Olympics it seemed Lochte was poised to go on an epic run, but when he screwed up the Lezak relay repeat and failed to dominate all of his events, he quickly fell out of the spotlight. He still managed to get two golds and five total medals so in my opinion it was a pretty damn good olympics. Honorary mention also goes to Ye Shiwen or as she's more commonly known in 'Merica "that 16 year old Chinese who's been doping." I have no idea whether she actually was on steroids, but let's just say if I really thought she could best Michael Phelps last 100 meters in the 400 IM she would probably be winning a medal in this column. Either way she had a great performance, and all the debate surrounding her made the Olympics all the more exciting. Finally, honorable mention goes to Aly Raisman, who helped the modern day fab five win the all-around team gold, and individually took home a bronze on the balance beam and gold on the floor routine. Of the fab five Raisman had the best performance in the individual events, and being the captain of the team was also very impressive (even if McKayla is not impressed).

BRONZE MEDAL: Gabby Douglas

Anyone else get dizzy looking at this picture?

Douglas was the star of the fab five's team all-around finals, and then the next day took home the individual all-around, which is the biggest honor in Olympic gymnastics. Gabby did falter after that though failing to place on both the uneven bars and the balance beam. Though Gabby underwhelmed on the individual events she still was the star of the fab five, and a transcendent gymnast being black in a mostly white sport. At 4-11 with a big smile Gabby seemed incredibly happy to be at the olympics, but still poised and confident in her abilities. Watching all the gymnasts is always incredible, but Gabby was the most impressive of them all and truly a joy to watch.

SILVER MEDAL: Missy Franklin

I wonder if she "Missy" America in London?

At only seventeen years old Franklin put together an incredible Olympics. In seven events she placed fifth 100m freestyle, fourth in the 200m freestyle, third in the 4x100 team freestyle relay, first in the 100m backstroke, first and olympic record in the 4x200 team freestyle relay, first and world record in the 200m backstroke, and first with a world record in the 4x100 team medley relay. Overall she had five medals, four golds, one olympic record, and two world records. It was a epic performance by Franklin, and she went about it all with a fantastic attitude. With her giant feet and 6-1 body Franklin seems to be the female version of star swimmer Michael Phelps. The American media has fallen in love with her because of her homegrown American way of life, and are impressed that she has turned down prize money and sponsorships in order to maintain collegiate eligibility. What I'm happy about is that instead of competing for the Canadian squad (she has dual-citizenship) she chose to represent the US and bring us home some more gold.

GOLD MEDAL: Michael Phelps

I can never recognize swimmers while they're swimming

When Michael Phelps barely qualified for the 400m IM and then placed 4th in the individual relay people were shocked. In his next two events Phelps had two silvers, one of which came in the revenge of the French in the 4x100m freestyle relay. After earning the two silvers, people decided Phelps was still very good, he just wasn't what he used to be. At this point I thought that Michael Phelps' 2012 Olympics would be similar to Jordan's Washington Wizards comeback. It shows us that he's still good, and can compete at a high level despite taking so much time off. However it disappoints us because it shows that Phelps/Jordan is nothing but a human. I was wrong. In his next four events, 4x200m freestyle relay, 200m individual medley, 100m butterfly, 4x100 medley relay Phelps ran the table. He ended the 2012 Olympics with six medals, and four golds, but also 22 Olympic career medals and 18 gold medals. Simply put, Phelps cemented his status as the greatest swimmer of all time. Instead of reminding me of the Jordan Wizards comeback, it reminded me of Jordan's comeback from his "baseball career." Jordan like Phelps started out slow with a loss to the Orlando Magic in the 1995 playoffs, but picked it up afterwards to prove that he was the greatest of all time at his respective sport.

WEEK 2

Honorable Mention: Misty May-Treanor/Kerri Walsh, Yohan Blake, and Mo Farah/Jessica Ennis

PEEK-A-BOO!!!!!!!!!!

The dynamic duo of Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh went undefeated in route to their third straight 2-on-2 Olympic beach volleyball gold. In the finals Treanor and Walsh played a great match against fellow Americans April Ross and Jennifer Kessy and earned gold in a dominating performance. Treanor and Walsh's ability to perform in the clutch with incredible consistency separated them from the field in what was probably their last Olympics. Yohan Blake helped the Jamaicans to a gold in their world record setting 4x100m relay, and got individual silver's in both the 100m and 200m. If there was no Usain Bolt in the world, Blake would have swept the board in sprinting track events while setting some records (remember there is no Bolt in this world). It is sad for Blake though because he will forever be in the shadow of the 6-4 Bolt. Mo Farah and Jessica Ennis were the stars for the host country in Britain. Jess as the Brits call her won gold in the 800m Heptathlon while becoming adored by her English fans, and Mo Farah won golds in both the 5,000m and 10,000m long distance runs.

BRONZE MEDAL: Allyson Felix

Just like a waving flag, and then it goes, and then it goes back

In four events Felix won three golds, and helped set a world record. In the 200m and the 4x400m relay Felix won gold for team USA. The Women's track team also set a world record in the 4x100m relay with help from Felix and fellow track star Carmelita Jeter. The 4x100m relay was an incredible performance by the US women as they shattered the Germans world record from 1985 by 0.55 seconds. It may not seem like that much, but in track and field more than half a second is an eternity. After getting silver medals in her last Olympics, Felix was probably overjoyed to come up with "not 1...not 2...(how did I know I would talk about Lebron at some point this article, oh yeah, because I write it) but 3 gold medals.

SILVER MEDAL: USA Women's Soccer Team

It looks like she forgot the flag she was supposed to be holding

The US women's soccer team got revenge against a Japan team that had beaten them in the World Cup final by defeating them to earn a gold in the 2012 Olympics. With Hope Solo, Megan Rapinoe, and the fiery Abby Wambach, the US team fought for the gold. It was not easy, and the 4-3 123rd minute victory over Canada after two overtimes by Alex Morgan was one of the greatest moments of the Olympics. Abby Wambach chewed out the referee in order to give them extra time when Morgan scored the amazing goal to win it. In the finals Carli Lloyd scored two goals in route to the 2-1 victory over Japan. It was a difficult run for the team, but with Wambach's leadership they never stopped fighting and came home with a well deserved gold.

GOLD MEDAL: Usain Bolt

He's pointing at his home country of Mars

The country of Jamaica had four gold medals. The legend of Usain Bolt had three. In Bolt's last six Olympic events he has won six golds, and set two world records and an olympic record. There were some questions coming in to this Olympics after Yohan Blake had beat Bolt in Jamaican qualifiers, but a doubter cannot be heard after what he did this Olympics. Bolt proved once again that he is the greatest and the fastest sprinter of all time, not to mention one of the greatest showmen among athletes. With all his pre-race dances and post-race poses Bolt ran like lightning to a 100m, 200m, and 4x100m gold victory. In the 100m Bolt was in the middle of the pack at the midway point in the race, but switched into another gear and zoomed to the finish and a Olympic record (yes he does own the World record). Well actually he slowed up just a bit at the finish by spreading his arms wide and coming as close to flying as any human has ever done. In the 200m Bolt slowed down at the finish to turn his head and put a finger to his lips to shush the crowd. In the 4x100m Bolt's end of race display was post-poned till next time as he ran hard to give the Jamaicans a new world record. Like Phelps Bolt used the 2012 London Olympics to affirm his status as the greatest ever at what he does. Phelps is the greatest swimmer ever, and Bolt is the greatest sprinter ever.

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Immediate reaction to the Dwight Howard to the Lakers deal

2012-08-10T00:34:00.000-04:00

by John Huffstetler

LA Lakers acquire Dwight Howard

Denver Nuggets acquire Andre Iguodala

Philadelphia 76ers acquire Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson

Orlando Magic acquire Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Moe Harkless, Nikola Vucevic, and 3 PROTECTED (key word) 1st round picks (One from each team)

Reaction: 3 winners and 1 one big loser in this trade.

LA Lakers: Big Winner. When you have the opportunity to acquire a player the caliber of Dwight Howard, you get the trade done. Credit the Lakers for having the persistence to make this beneficial trade work. Earlier this past season when speculation grew that Howard might be traded, I speculated about where Howard might land, arguing that the Lakers and Bulls had the best chance to get him. The Lakers seemed likely then because they had the best trade-able asset among all the potential teams at the time in Andrew Bynum. As it turns out, Bynum was a huge part of this trade (even though the Magic somehow found it unnecessary themselves to acquire him). The Lakers saw how much better Howard makes them than Bynum and they only had to give up Bynum in order to acquire him. They are now the CLEAR team to beat in the NBA because they added the best Center and Point Guard in the league this offseason to an already solid playoff team. Brilliant move. Grade: A+

Philadelphia 76ers: Another winner. The Sixers squeaked into the playoffs last year after a terrible second half of the season only to benefit from injuries to Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah and steal a first round win over a far superior Bulls team. Their offseason had been quiet and puzzling so far. They let Louis Williams walk but sign Nick Young and Kwame Brown? There was a definite hole in the middle as well after they amnestied Elton Brand, but this move immediately upgrades their lineup. Iguodala was a strong player for the Sixers (and will continue to be for the Nuggets), but the Sixers have players to give minutes in the backcourt that can defend and rebound near Iguodala's level. They did not, however, have a decent second option in the post opposite Spencer Hawes. They lost some production at SF, but gain huge production in the post, as they now have two legitimate seven-footers to start night in and night out. Jason Richardson is not worth mentioning because he is an overpaid, inefficient player. He alone drops this grade down from an A. Grade: B+

Denver Nuggets: Another winner. This was a savvy move by the Nuggets and GM Kiki Vandeweghe. It was inarguable last year that the Nuggets had the deepest team in the NBA; however, that depth hurt them late in the season after Wilson Chandler returned from China because there simply weren't enough minutes for everyone. A team with depth like the Nuggets needs to use that depth to upgrade the caliber of players in the starting lineup. Afflalo is a fine player, but Iguodala is an obvious upgrade. He will start at the SG spot and Gallinari will continue to play the SF position. The only other player that the Nuggets had to give up is the black hole, Al Harrington. He is overpaid, shoots poor shots, and rebounds terribly for a Power Forward. Plus, the Nuggets are anxious to give more minutes in the post to Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee, and Timofey Mozgov. His departure is a great example of addition by subtraction. Back to Iguodala, he fits well with this squad Nuggets in several important ways: 1) He runs the floor well and likes to play in transition, which matches perfectly with the Nuggets up and down style, 2) He offers them versatility in being able to start at the 2 or the play the 3 when Gallinari sits or is injured (which seems to be happening frequently), and 3) He is an elite defender who can cover the litany of Western Conference two guards that can light up the scoreboard. Denver is not a top 3 team out West, but they're not far off after this trade. Grade: A

Orlando Magic: Disgraceful. You have to protect your assets as a professional sports franchise. If you're lucky enough to get a player of Dwight Howard's ability, do whatever it takes to keep him. If you can't keep him, get as close to EQUAL VALUE in return as possible. The Magic gave up a top 5 player and in return get Afflalo (granted, he is a decent player), 3 protected draft picks (as in not lottery picks), 2 nobodies, and one of the worst well-known players in the league in Al Harrington. THAT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE TO EQUAL VALUE. They could have just traded for Andrew Bynum. The Lakers were obviously willing to let him go. They didn't want him (but they wanted Al Harrington?). They could have just waited. They had the best player in the trade. Why not just wait and try to build a bigger market for Howard? Why rush if you're going to get NOTHING in return? They have just made themselves irrelevant for at least the next 5 years, and they didn't have to. Just look at the Nuggets who I just praised for their part in the deal. They had to trade Carmelo Anthony in 2011, and it was clear that Melo wanted out of Denver. In return, they received Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton and a few draft picks; as a result, they didn't miss a beat. Their team was probably even stronger after the trade. Newsflash, Carmelo isn't even good! Howard is ten times the player that Melo is. To get so little in return for such a dynamic player is a complete and utter disgrace, and a slap in the face to every Magic fan. Grade: F-------------------

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