One Option Trading Blog

Choppy Pre-Holiday Trading. Possible Speed Bump Wed and Thurs.

2013-05-21T15:43:00-05:00

We are in a news vacuum. The market wants to move higher and there is nothing to stand in the way. Light pre-holiday trading favors the bulls. However, there is a chance for a speed bump tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon the FOMC minutes will be released. The market knows that the "great unwind" will start sooner or later and it does not like to be reminded. In the last FOMC statement, the rhetoric was balanced. The Fed will maintain current policies if conditions are sluggish. If they improve, they will start to tighten. The consensus probably remained dovish due to current economic …

Market Wants To Grind Higher. Potential Speedbump Wed Afternoon and Thurs Morning.

2013-05-20T15:26:00-05:00

The bid is strong and the market was able to shrug off soft economic releases last week. The Philly Fed, Empire Manufacturing, housing starts and initial jobless claims all disappointed. We are due for a quick pullback and I'm looking for news that might spark selling. Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will be released. Their statement last month was balanced. They will reduce quantitative easing if economic conditions are improving and they will continue "loose" policies as long as growth is sluggish. Given the recent round of economic releases, I'm not expecting any tightening. However, traders are spooked by the thought that …

Economic News This Week Was Soft. At Best the Market Will Tread Water. Chance For A Small Decline

2013-05-17T15:15:00-05:00

Every year I offer a package deal to celebrate OneOption's anniversary. Get the entire platform for 1 year at a 60% savings. This offer ends today May 17th. CLICK HERE learn more. The market wants to move higher, but the momentum is starting to slow down. Economic releases have missed expectations and that should temper excitement. The news is very light next week and trading volumes will drop off as we head into Memorial Day. Housing starts, Empire Manufacturing, the Philly Fed and initial jobless claims all missed expectations this week. The numbers were not dire, but they …

Initial Claims Spiked 32K - Could Cast Some Doubt. Momentum and Activity Should Slow Down

2013-05-16T15:11:00-05:00

Every year I offer a package deal to celebrate OneOption's anniversary. Get the entire platform for 1 year at a 60% savings. This offer ends Friday May 17th. CLICK HERE learn more. The market has been on a rocket shot and we can expect the momentum to stall. Asset Managers who were under allocated scrambled to get long after the last Unemployment Report. Shorts that were looking to "sell in May" quickly covered and that catalyst has run its course. Bullish speculators also piled in and they are due to get flushed out. My opening comment might sound …

Soft Economic News Not Dampening Spirits. We Are Seeing Some Panic Buying

2013-05-15T15:22:00-05:00

Tonight I am hosting the Webinar of the Year. You have to see my SPY day trading system. I am also kicking off my 1-Year 1 Price bundle where you can save 60%. This is the lowest price of the year and the preferred price will go up Friday. REGISTER NOW. The market rally continues and I sense panic buying. Asset Managers that waited for a dip are scrambling to get long. Investors are also buying this breakout. Global markets have been moving higher as central banks continue to print money. European credit concerns are subdued and they …

Roadblocks Have Been Cleared. Nothing To Stand In the Way. Trade Stocks That Are Breaking Out

2013-05-14T15:02:00-05:00

The breakout is gathering steam in this light volume environment. Bears are not going to step in front of this freight train and Asset Managers are playing catch-up. China's economic releases were a little light and growth projections have been reduced from 7.8% to 7.6%. Their government is satisfied with the current growth level and they don't have any stimulus plans. Europe's industrial production was better than feared. We are in risk on mode. Equities are attractive relative to bonds and the US dollar is strong. Stable economic conditions make the S&P 500 an attractive global investment. European credit concerns will …

Look For A Boring Drift Higher. No News To Spoil the Rally This Week.

2013-05-13T16:07:00-05:00

The news has tapered off and conditions are quite. After a huge run, the market needs time to rest. Time decay will be an issue for option buyers over the next two weeks. I like the macro backdrop. Jobs in the US are gradually improving and the soft patch in April appears to have been a seasonal adjustment. Growth is not robust enough for the Fed to stop easing. Germany supports a centralized banking authority (change of heart from last year) and they want to quickly move forward. European credit concerns have not been an issue and if they make progress, …

Market Wants To Push Higher. Choppy Acton With An Upward Bias. Day Traders Buy Dips

2013-05-10T11:53:00-05:00

I am posting today's comments an hour before the open. This has been a relatively quiet week and there wasn't much overnight news to move market. Momentum pushed stocks higher this week after a breakout to new all-time highs. Traders are convinced that the dismal jobs report a month ago was nothing more than a seasonal adjustment. Initial jobless claims declined by another 4,000 yesterday and the four-week moving average is at the lowest level in years. Germany will embrace a centralized European banking authority and that will suppress credit fears. This was the biggest news of the week from my …

Initial Jobless Claims Continue To Improve. Look For An Afternoon Rally.

2013-05-09T15:50:00-05:00

The market broke out to a new all-time high and we saw follow-through buying on light volume this week. Earnings season is winding down and major economic releases are a week away. Momentum should push stocks higher. This morning, initial jobless claims fell another 4,000. The four-week moving average continues to decline and traders have proof that April's soft patch was a seasonal adjustment. Until they see concrete evidence that economic conditions are deteriorating, they will buy stocks. There were some positive developments this week. China's trade balance came in better-than-expected. Slowdown fears will be kept at bay until major releases …

Breakout and Follow Through. Overnight News Good - Stocks Will Grind Higher.

2013-05-08T14:37:00-05:00

After last week's breakout to a new all-time high, the momentum clearly points higher. No one wants to step in front of this freight train. The overnight news was "market friendly". Traders are keeping a close eye on China's activity. Trade numbers came out better than expected and this will calm nerves until a big round of economic releases next week (industrial production and retail sales). I mentioned yesterday that Germany's Finance Minister has done a 180. He now believes that a centralized banking authority is in the best interests of the EU and he wants to move forward quickly. This …

Good Long Term Event. Germany Wants To Proceed Quickly - EU Centralized Banking Authority

2013-05-07T15:55:00-05:00

Stocks should inch higher this week as we enter a news vacuum. After a breakout to new all-time highs, the momentum is strong and no one will stand in front of this freight train. Earnings season is winding down and this soft patch is being dismissed as a seasonal adjustment. The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 15 and stocks are attractive relative to bonds. The big economic news hit last week and the calendar is light. Central banks are printing money like mad and credit risks are low. There was an important news event today and I …

Ease Into Call Positions. News Is Light and That Favors the Momentum.

2013-05-06T15:39:00-05:00

Last week the market surged to a new all-time high and it convincingly broke through resistance. The expectations for Friday's Unemployment Report were low and the number came in better than feared. April's job growth exceeded estimates by 15,000, but the March revision (up 88,000) was the real shocker. Traders that claimed there was a seasonal adjustment were vindicated. Stocks liked the news and we will grind higher this week. With all of the major releases behind us and earnings season winding down, there is nothing to stand in the way this week. England and Japan were closed today and volumes …

Huge Jobs Surprise. March Number Adjusted By 88K. Bona Fide Breakout. You Will Have Time To Get In

2013-05-03T14:37:00-05:00

Best $1 per day you can spend. WATCH THIS 2 MINUTE VIDEO. The SPY trading system is free for one more week with the platform. The market has been looking for a reason to rally and it got one today. March payrolls were revised up by 88,000 and 165,000 new jobs were created in April. Both numbers were much better than expected and the market is staging a bona fide breakout to new all-time highs. It is important to keep your perspective. By any standard, 165,000 jobs is nothing to write home about. We need …

Gobal Money Flowing Into US Stocks. Bad Jobs Report Might Not Matter. Let’s See

2013-05-02T15:03:00-05:00

Yesterday, the market pulled back on weak economic news. The damage was contained and stocks are rebounding today. After a month of dismal economic releases, you would expect to see some selling pressure. ADP employment missed by a wide margin and the market shrugged off the news. Mixed comments from the FOMC sparked a little selling. They did say that the risk of an economic slowdown is elevated. Initial jobless claims dropped by 18,000 this morning and it came in at the lowest level in five years (328,000). This is the second good week in a row, but this number is …

ADP Miss. Look For Late Day Selling. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Be the Final Blow

2013-05-01T15:24:00-05:00

The bad news keeps coming and the market keeps pushing higher. This morning, ADP employment came in at 119,000 and analysts were expecting 155,000 new jobs in the private sector during April. The recent economic soft patch appears to be more than a seasonal adjustment. In the last month, every economic release has missed expectations. In the last week, durable goods orders, the Beige Book, Chicago PMI and ADP have missed. ISM manufacturing came in at 50.7 and it was better than expected, but barely above 50. The official PMI from China was worse than expected. Many analysts were looking for …

Chicago PMI Weak. Just Another Bad Number. Evidence Is Mounting

2013-04-30T15:54:00-05:00

The market is right at its all-time high. Italy elected a new prime minister and that provided a positive backdrop yesterday. End of month fund buying also pushed stocks higher. The action today could be rather subdued ahead of major announcements. Official PMI's will be posted tomorrow. Europe is in horrible shape and China's growth is slowing. This was revealed in the flash numbers and the official release will simply be a reminder that global economic conditions are fragile. The FOMC will release its statement tomorrow, but I am not expecting any change in rhetoric. Last month, there were some rumblings …

Overnight Risk Greater Than Reward. Big News This Week. Surprise Favors Downside.

2013-04-29T15:39:00-05:00

Last week the market rallied on decent earnings news. More than 60% of the companies that have reported have exceeded profit estimates. However, only 40% have exceeded revenue estimates. It is important to remember that estimates have been lowered and "beats" should be expected. Year-over-year comps paint a very sluggish picture. In a world with miniscule bond yields, stocks are attractively valued at a forward P/E of 15. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is greater than the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. Corporate revenues might be flat, but margins are healthy due to cost-cutting. Cash flows are at record …

Add GDP To the List. Focus Will Shift To Econ Releases Next Week - Suprise Favors Downside

2013-04-26T15:51:00-05:00

This is a great time to try my PLATFORM. I added a new SPY day trading system and it is free to all platform subscribers until May 10th. This is a real-time platform with streaming quotes, my market comments (before the open), advanced charting, stock expert ratings and much more. Best $1/day you can spend. The economic news continues to disappoint and we can add GDP to the list of misses. Fortunately, a decent round of earnings releases has kept sellers at bay. That could change next week. ISM manufacturing, ISM services, ADP and the Unemployment Report will be …

Market Challenging the All-time High. Potential Negative News Next Week. Be Careful.

2013-04-25T15:39:00-05:00

This is a great time to try my PLATFORM. I added a new SPY day trading system today and it is free to all platform subscribers until May 10th. We made a nice $.40 profit on our first trade today. This is a real-time platform with streaming quotes, my market comments (before the open), advanced charting, stock expert ratings and much more. Best $1/day you can spend. After a good round of earnings releases, the market is challenging the all-time high. It ignored dismal economic releases and a breakout seems imminent. The earnings news has been good, but not …

Durable Goods Miss. Big Econ News Next Week. Surprise Favors the Downside. Be Careful

2013-04-24T15:31:00-05:00

This is a great time to try my PLATFORM. I will be adding a new SPY day trading system today and it will be free to all platform subscribers until May 10th. This is a real-time platform with streaming quotes, my market comments (before the open), advanced charting, stock expert ratings and much more. Best $1/day you can spend. Stocks pushed higher in the presence of soft economic data yesterday. This morning, durable goods orders fell 5.7% and that is worse than the 3.1% decline analysts were expecting. Macro conditions are deteriorating. China's flash PMI was worse than expected …

Flash PMIs Were Dismal. Watch For A Reversal Or Late Day Selling As We Approch SPY 159

2013-04-23T14:36:00-05:00

This is a great time to try my PLATFORM. I will be adding a new day trading system in a day or two and it will be free to all platform subscribers for 2 weeks from the date of release. This is a real-time platform with streaming quotes, market research (before the open), advanced charting, stock expert ratings and much more. Yesterday, the market pushed higher on light volume. Earnings have been decent and the market wants to run. Unfortunately, the macro backdrop is deteriorating. Flash PMI's came in weaker than expected and I believe this bounce will soon …

Profit Takers Are More Aggressive Than Buyers. Wait For the Flash PMIs. Market Reaction Critical

2013-04-22T16:24:00-05:00

Last week, the market showed signs of strain. For the first time in many months, we saw selling and follow-through. Profit takers are more aggressive than buyers and it appears that the short term top has formed. The economic releases in April have been soft. ADP, the Unemployment Report, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, initial claims, housing starts, Empire Manufacturing, the Beige Book and the Philly Fed all disappointed. This week, flash PMI's, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims and GDP will be released. Traders are willing to give the recent "soft patch" free pass because we had a similar trough in …

Support Will Be Tested Next Week. Price Action Afterwards Will Give Us the Info We Need

2013-04-19T15:04:01-05:00

The market is showing signs of strain. In recent months, swift declines have instantly been met with buying. The decline from Monday resumed Wednesday and we made a new relative low. The selling pressure continued yesterday. This is a warning sign and the bid has weakened. Asset Managers are no longer worried that they will miss the next big rally and they will wait for evidence that an economic recovery is underway. After a five-month market rally to new highs, you would expect investor confidence. All of the puzzle pieces were in place a few weeks ago and everything looked great. …

Lows From Monday Breached. Market Will Probe For Support - SPY 153 Should Hold

2013-04-18T16:15:00-05:00

Thank you for posting your reviews on Investimonials. This research takes me about 3 hours a day to complete from start to finish and your comments inspire me to keep doing it. This week we are starting to see some cracks in the dam. The market sold off Monday and the relief rally on Tuesday came on light volume. Wednesday, stocks retreated and the low from Monday has been breached. This is bearish price action and it could be signaling a short term market top. Global economic conditions are deteriorating. China's industrial production, retail sales and GDP all missed estimates. The …

Beige Book This Afternoon Could Be A Problem. Lows From Mon (SPY 155) Could Be Tested Today.

2013-04-17T14:41:00-05:00

Thousand of readers daily and not one review on INVESTIMONIALS. My analysis has been spot on and I am a little disappointed. I don't advertise on my blog and I don't ask often. Please take time to post a review. Your comments motivate me to put the time in each day. There is a free webinar tonight and you can register to the right. Market conditions are changing. Monday's decline is different from the ones we've seen in the last few months. The bid has weakened and the price action looks toppy. Previous selloffs were one day events characterized …

Good Earnngs Will Be Off-set By Weak Economic Releases. Reluctant Rally Ahead.

2013-04-16T14:24:00-05:00

If my market comments are helping you make money, please post a reveiw on Investimonials. CLICK HERE My forecast has been spot on and your comments would mean a lot. Thank you. My thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of the terrorist bombing in Boston. This tragic event accelerated yesterday's decline and the move was over-extended. In pre-open trading, the S&P 500 is up 15 points and we are seeing a small relief rally. A good round of earnings is helping to restore confidence. It is important to remember that the market was in trouble before …

Swing Traders Exit Longs. Day Traders Short Intra-day. No Overnight Shorts. Speed Bump

2013-04-15T15:20:00-05:00

Last week, the market surged to new highs. The news had a few negative wrinkles and they were completely ignored. I mentioned that we could hit a speed bump this morning and that is exactly what's happening. There are three pillars of strength that need to be in place and all of them have gone from green to yellow recently. This tells me that Asset Managers will not aggressively bid for stocks. They have time to evaluate conditions and they are not worried that they will miss the next big rally. Economic growth in China is one of those pillars. Two …

Be Prudent - Take Some Profits. You Will Have Chances To Get Back In - Possible Speed Bump Sun

2013-04-12T15:19:00-05:00

What a week for stocks. The market broke out to a new all-time high as earnings season kicked off. Surprisingly, the news has not justified the rally. The jobs reports last week were dismal and ISM services/ISM manufacturing missed expectations. The FOMC minutes were rather hawkish and politicians are still miles apart on the fiscal budget. Traders ignored the news and they managed to find the silver lining in every release. In 2012, our economy hit a soft patch in April. This is providing a false sense of security. If domestic activity does not improve in May, the reaction will be …

Ride the Wave and Take Profits Along the Way. Possible Speed Bumps Ahead.

2013-04-11T15:53:00-05:00

The market hit new all-time highs yesterday and it is off to the races today. Bad news is being discounted and under-allocated Asset Managers are buying ahead of earnings season. Initial jobless claims spiked last week and that turned out to be a seasonal anomaly. Traders discounted the number last week when it came out. This still does not account for the dismal jobs reports last week. April 2012 had a similar dip and the dismal employment number is still getting a "free pass". If this continues, the reaction will be much different when May's number is released. ISM manufacturing and …

Breakout To New All-Time Highs. Day Trade - Possible Speed Bumps Ahead.

2013-04-10T15:58:00-05:00

The market is breaking out to a new all-time high. Asset Managers are discounting the recent economic releases and they are buying stocks ahead of earnings season. Last year our economic activity hit a soft patch in April and traders are willing to give last week's dismal results a "free pass". Tomorrow's initial jobless claims number will be very important. People typically postpone applications for unemployment benefits during a holiday and that could have been the reason for the spike in jobless claims last week (+40K). If we don't see a decrease tomorrow, the market will pullback. China is also important …