IFC.com - 2008 Uncut

Finale

2008-11-11T04:53:22Z

By Will Rabbe

Renegade is moving into the White House. At least that's how Barack Obama will be known to the secret service -- by his code name. For President-elect Obama, who received criticism for being a "secret muslim," and a "secret socialist," (read: un-American) the literal meaning of the name renegade couldn't be more ironic. The word Renegade, as defined by the Oxford American Dictionary, means "a person who betrays an organization, country, or a set of principles" or "a person who abandons religion."

Maybe those in the secret service have a wry sense of humor but what has come to pass in this country is truly remarkable. In the final weeks of the election many on the far right came to distrust the polls. Some were relying on the idea of the "Bradley effect," or the notion that voters would lie to pollsters in favor of an African American candidate, but would cast their ballots for the other guy in private. The idea of the Bradley effect itself is a belief that America harbors a sort of latent racism, which could only become suddenly apparent after voters had gone to the polls. The idea was faulty.

The candidate who was supposedly handicapped by his race won a Democratic landslide. Not only did he break a racial barrier but he broke down a barrier that had increasingly impeded the modern Democratic party: slim margins of victory. In the last 50 years the three biggest landslides have all been Republican: Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '80 and '84. Since 1964, no Democrat has won with more than 300 electoral votes without the help of a third party candidate (Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992 and even 8% in 1996, helping Clinton win more electoral votes).

States that had not voted for a Democratic President since '64 also turned this time around: Virginia and Indiana. Obama won both the symbolic swing states of Ohio and Florida, the breadwinners of the electoral college. Western states like New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada all went blue -- and even North Carolina jumped the bandwagon, encroaching on the "solid south," the Republican stronghold.

But with Obama's historic election come huge expectations, expectations that even "the one" will find difficult to meet. How will Renegade fare?

Election of Barack Obama Goes A Long Way In Restoring America's Reputation Around The World

2008-11-07T20:04:05Z

It was not just Americans but people all over the world who watched with rapt attention as Barack Hussein Obama became our president-elect. From his former elementary school in Jakarta, to his father's homeland of Kenya, to cynics across the globe who never thought the US, with our history of struggles for racial equality, would be capable of accepting a president with the middle name "Hussein," let alone an African American.

It would seem, for a brief time at least, that the election of Barack Obama has suspended much of the ill will that the Bush Administration engendered with their unilateral military actions and lack of diplomacy.

VOTE

2008-11-04T04:55:54Z

By Sarah Scully
Today, life as we know it will change. After an elephantine gestation, America will give birth to a new leader. With so many historic firsts, the anticipation on the ground is that of an expectant parent multiplied by the nerves before the starting gun at an Olympic relay (and for some, added to that, the dread of a grad student who has 10 hours left to complete 20 hours of work on a final thesis).

Whatever your level of enthusiasm, do make sure you vote. Participation is the point of democracy, even if that participation is in the form of a protest. If you do not like the printed choice of candidates, write in the people you would like to see run the country. To fail to vote at all, is to not care about your own freedom.

ELECTION DAY: What to Watch

2008-11-03T23:04:39Z

By Will Rabbe

After two years of non-stop campaigning, a remarkable field of candidates and a fierce battle in the home stretch, we're on the eve of election day. While Barack Obama leads in all the national polls and in most battleground polls, it isn't over until one of the candidates reaches the magic number of electoral votes: 270. Here's a summary of what to watch for as the results begin to come in:

Indiana: While it's a mid-west state, its polls close early so we should see the results report at 6PM (EST), before many of the eastern states. A traditional red state, Indiana has been extremely close and may be the first indicator of how election night will play out. While an Obama win will likely mean big victory nationwide, if Obama is blown out it may indicate a late McCain surge. Same rule applies for Missouri (but it doesn't report until 8). But since a narrow McCain win won't change the game either way, we should also be looking at the big electoral states of Ohio and Florida early on in the evening.

Ohio and Florida: Polls have shown a dead heat. McCain needs these states to remain competitive, since a win for Obama in either will likely guarantee victory for the Obama camp. If Obama loses narrowly, he will need to hold onto Pennsylvania and win Virginia. Florida reports at 7PM, Ohio at 7:30.

Pennsylvania: While Obama has led against McCain in this state since last April, the McCain campaign is putting down the chips -- Mark Salter and McCain's strategists see PA as the gateway to 270 and the Senator has kept his schedule full of events in the state. So, what do they know that we don't? Well, they tell us that their internal polling shows a closer race than many thought. In fact, Pennsylvania might be particularly difficult to poll, remember, Obama was only down 5 points before he was blown out by Clinton by a margin of 10.

If McCain is, in fact, competitive in PA, we may have a longer night than expected and Obama would have to make up the electoral loss by winning either Ohio or Florida, or 3 of the 3 western states of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada in addition to... Virginia, which is seen as an Obama stronghold.

Virginia: Obama has maintained a clear lead in this state for weeks, even above the margin of error in many polls. Once a solid Red state, it hasn't voted for a Democratic President since LBJ in 1964. In 2004 John Kerry pulled his campaign out in August, but this year Barack Obama never counted VA out and his efforts in the state have paid off -- most pundits have marked the state as a sure bet for Obama. Watch Obama run up the numbers in this new blue state. While McCain is unlikely to win, if McCain's turnout is larger than expected and Obama's margin is diminished, it may indicate a surprise turn in the electorate. If Obama loses PA, he will need this state and three of the western states to win. Virginia results will come in with Florida -- at 7PM.

Western Toss-Ups: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are Barack Obama's firewall. If he loses PA or VA in the east, the entire focus of the election will turn to these three states as he will have to make up the numbers.

Take a look at the electoral vote calculator to see the possible outcomes. Predictions?

The Final Countdown

2008-11-03T19:44:34Z

By Sarah Scully
Mere hours remain for the campaigns to make their respective cases, and Barack Obama and John McCain have not wasted a minute between them. After finding out that his grandmother had succumbed to cancer this morning, Obama soldiered through his planned swing through swing states Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. A determined John McCain (who released a statement offering his condolences to Obama) set out on an ambitious seven state marathon through Florida, Tennessee (unclear why he is going here, it is a solid red state), Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finally Arizona. The running mates and Michelle Obama have embarked on their own slate of stops through crucial areas. The madness will continue all day tomorrow with the candidates finally ending up in their home states to watch the results.

Expect epic lines at the polls, non stop phone calls and the site of thousands of out of work, hung over campaign workers on Wednesday morning.

Check back as Will and I will be reporting from each campaign's election night headquarters...

Wazzzzup Obama

2008-10-31T04:37:42Z

Must see pro-Obama political ad:

Crystal Ball Breaker

2008-10-30T19:52:15Z

By Sarah Scully
Wise Words From Karl Rove; Wiser Words From Jonathan Martin...
As is often the case in the final days before an election, eager beavers and nervous Nellies start crafting narratives for how the race will be won (in either a monstrous landslide or a stunning comeback) based on the only thing they have to ease their anxieties: polling data. As former Bush strategist extraordinaire Karl Rove cautions in a WSJ commentary: many polls were wrong in 2000 and 2004. Pollsters may have improved their methods in recent years, and we now have statistician Nate Silver to assess their reliability; however, voters have defied expectations before and there is always the outside chance they could again. All that said, Politico's blogger extraordinaire, Jonathan Martin offers the most sensible take on the matter, explaining the usefulness of putting stock in reliable polling of individual states that are key to winning the electoral college. Forecast whatever outcome you want to comfort yourself but we won't know until we know and that is the beauty of democracy: the people decide... so make sure you vote!

The InfObamercial

2008-10-30T00:45:40Z

In case you missed it, Barack Obama took over several major networks tonight for a 30-minute spot (that at times looked more like a hybrid of a Ken Burns film and The West Wing than a campaign ad). Reviews are mixed as some were impressed, others were annoyed to have their regularly scheduled programming interrupted and a few people even found the the whole concept offensive.

Here is Obama's 30-minute spot:

Here is McCain's 30-second response:

Let us know what you think...

New Mexico: Snapshot of a Swing State

2008-10-27T17:31:10Z

By Sarah Scully
Albuquerque, NM

John McCain and Barack Obama both spent their Saturday in New Mexico. The state that went blue in 2000 and red in 2004 has become one of the key battlegrounds in the final days before the election. With the Obama campaign encroaching on old Bush territories, including Nevada, Colorado and most notably, Virginia, they now have several potential routes for winning the magic number of 270 electoral votes. McCain has fewer options at this point, as states once considered safe for the GOP are slipping away. The McCain campaign, much like Hillary Clinton's, seems to have underestimated Obama's offensive ground game and is now scrambling to make up for it.

Amid rumors that his resources have become increasingly stretched, McCain showed up in New Mexico with a mission to reconnect with Latino voters and make clear that he had not given up on the state. McCain's morning rally in Albuquerque turned out about 1,500 supporters, which would have been impressive, had there not been an Obama rally later that night that attracted an estimated 45,000 people. As McCain moved southward, speaking to his credentials as a fellow westerner and mocking Obama for his presumptuousness; hordes of Obama volunteers canvassed the state getting early voters to the polls before gathering at the University of New Mexico to line up for a chance to see their candidate.

Everyone we encountered in that line had voted early, some waiting two hours to do so. Many had spent the afternoon going door to door. While McCain seldom mentioned early voting at his events, both Obama and Governor Bill Richardson (who introduced him) implored the audience to get to the polls as soon as possible, championing their power to swing the election.

Though Obama looked a little worn out as he took to the stage, he spoke energetically, even aggressively at times, such as when he suggested McCain was the Robin to Bush's Batman. The audience frequently erupted into deafening chants and blue and white signs could be seen waving in the air for miles.

His message has been so successfully telegraphed throughout the election that it almost wouldn't have mattered if he had simply stood there reading the Albuquerque phone book. Most attendees were too far back to hear what he was saying anyway.

The GOP continues to attack Obama for the grandiosity of his events and it is worth noting that crowds do not always translate into votes but it is hard to argue that the enthusiasm generated from his rallies is a key ingredient in his success. Still, McCain has an uncanny ability to come from behind and almost requires it in order to build velocity. While this worked for him in the primaries, he may not have enough of a runway left in the general election.

New Photos From The Trail

2008-10-23T21:41:43Z

The latest from the trail...

Getting some wisdom from Dan Balz

Getting some wisdom from Jill Zuckman

Getting some wisdom from Jonathan Martin

Axelrod doing what he does best

McCain Camp Top Gun, Rick Davis

Governor Granholm

Proof of McCain' s youth support

Chris Wallace being a good sport

Howard Dean weighing in

Chris Dodd weighing in

Spin Room awaiting Spinners

This is what a press filing room looks like

Behind the scenes of Fox News

Triumph and Mr. Met making mischief behind the scenes of Fox News

FUN with the Electoral Map

2008-10-20T22:09:11Z

Take a look at the state of the race and test potential outcomes on the LA Times electoral map calculator (click create your own scenario):

Hmm.... not much calculating to do with these polls, considering they've already got Obama up by 48 electoral votes.

Boxers, briefs, diapers, or nothing at all...

2008-10-20T20:53:06Z

John Kerry with a sense of humor, albeit somewhat risque!

Home Stretch Survival Guide

2008-10-20T18:33:55Z

By Will Rabbe

Since the news is moving faster than ever in the home stretch and yes, sometimes it's hard to pay attention to everything -- here are a few stories of note:

First he's an "elite," now he's a socialist. The McCain camp has been hammering away at Obama's tax policy, likening it to socialism. What would Karl Marx say? Here's a take from a real commie. Close enough...

Obama raises a shit-ton of cash this month, almost three times his previous record. Small donations are the name of the game. Some republicans claim he's accepted foreign money... maybe from the Soviets?

The final debate -- varying takes, here and here.

Obama fights back on the ACORN accusations -- he wants to find out if the McCain campaign has been coordinating with the present administration. Or... what is this whole ACORN thing?

Colin Powell takes heat from Rush for endorsing Barack Obama. Because black people only endorse black candidates?

Despite not being a licensed plumber, or not being able to buy his bussiness or making far less than 250K a year, Joe the Plumber is still making a difference. More on "Joe the Plumber," American Idol.

We're down to the wire and "swing states" will make all the difference. Keep up on all the most recent polls...

What motivates voters to choose one candidate over another? "Most people seem able to provide cogent- sounding reasons for voting the way they do. However, careful observation suggests that these 'reasons' often are merely rationalizations constructed from readily available campaign rhetoric to justify preferences formed on other grounds."

Aside from the polls and predictions -- it's worthwhile to take a fresh look at our electoral system -- does it work? Maybe not?

IFC's 2008 Uncut With Triumph the Insult Comic Dog/Pundit

2008-10-20T16:32:54Z

Sarah Scully http://www.ifc.com/mt/mt-cp.cgi?__mode=view&blog_id=1&id=49

From Russia With Love...

2008-10-20T15:08:46Z

Sarah Scully http://www.ifc.com/mt/mt-cp.cgi?__mode=view&blog_id=1&id=49