CONTINGENCY: IF UAB BEATS MEMPHIS, UAB MOVES TO A 12... XAVIER IS OUT... VANDERBILT MOVES TO 11

(Note - Purdue/Yale and WVU/Gonzaga cannot play Round 1. This was an error. Shoot. Also, BYU doesn’t play on Sundays, so they will not be in Cleveland).

The Bracket:

The Bubble:

The S-Curve

Quick update! Note that Oklahoma and West Virginia swapped seeds due to bracketing conflicts (the SEC is making everything a giant mess).

The Bracket:

The Bubble:

The S Curve:

This is the hardest bracket to seed of all time. The asterisks below represent teams that had to slide up or down the seed lines (from their spot in the S-Curve) due to bracketing rules (aka there are way too many SEC teams).

This bracket likely changes a ton over next couple days. It’s more of a Rorschach test this year than ever.

Hey, this site is still technically up and running!

First attempt at a bracket this year:

The Bracket:

The Bubble:

The S-Curve:

Here it is - the Field of 68. It sucks we had so many bid stealers, as this happens to be the best bubble in many years. Pour one out for Indiana State.

For what it’s worth, Michigan State should be out, but I think the Committee will keep them in, Also, would not be shocked to see St. John’s get in over Oklahoma. If the Committee wants to pick nits, Texas A&M’s four bad losses are a good scape goat.

NOTE: if Temple comes back to beat UAB, here is the contingency:

1-12: Same
13: Yale, Charleston, Vermont, Morehead State
14: Akron, Oakland, Colgate, South Dakota State
15: Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Longwood, Temple
16: Same

The bracket:

The bubble:

The s-curve:

Another bracket update. I hate to say it, but I am scared the Sycamores will be left out. The Committee has historically prioritized Q1 wins and forgiven bad losses. I can see them pulling a fast one and putting Texas A&M in the Field.

If you’re an ISU fan like me, root for FAU and Dayton to win their respective conference tourneys.

Per usual, this is all correct. Marquette has been properly seeded this time.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Marquette was mistakenly made a 5-seed (blame faulty sorting). Eagles should be around the 2-seed line. This will be corrected in future versions.

First bracket of the season. No notes. Here we go:

February is usually the worst month of the year, but thankfully a mild winter and a terrific tandem of road trips has helped ease the 28-day (29 this year… crap) blues.

Jim and I took a trip to Dayton and Terre Haute earlier this month to catch some sick Sycamore and fantastic Flyer action. This past weekend my wife and I visited two friends in the nation’s capital, checking off Georgetown and Maryland games in the process.

The following is a non-standard recount in reverse order about the places I visited and the games I attended.

MARYLAND

Pre-Game

D.C. is a cool city for a variety of reasons, but the one that sticks out to this college basketball degenerate is how many Division I schools reside in such a small area. College Park, the home of the Maryland Terrapins, was just a short and cheap 30-minute Metro ride from D.C.

I crowdsourced suggestions on where to go pre-game for some vibes and an adult beverage or two. Looney’s was the overwhelming winner. Unfortunately, Looney’s – a quintessential college bar just a few minutes’ walk from the Xfinity Center – was seemingly the choice for all 18,000-ish fans that attended the game.

There’s no exaggeration when I say Looney’s was the most crowded bar I’ve ever been to – if not most crowded, certainly in the top five. Four-person-deep lines stuffed with patrons trying helplessly to get a cold one circled the bar from the entrance and wrapped around the corner to the other end. A smattering of tables and other folks hanging out in between made it impossible to stand anywhere and lift your arms. That’s not a complaint either – that type of atmosphere is part of what makes college sports so great. Passionate fan bases showing up and celebrating pre-game is an institution.

So, since we missed the Looney’s boat, we bopped over across the street to a dive bar called Town Hall Liquor and Bar. Others had the same idea – one of two clearly stressed bartenders told a guy they were doing triple the normal amount of business that day. But we secured some brews, posted up against the wall and enjoyed some college vibes.

(P.S. - shout-out Marathon Deli for post-game eats).

The Arena

The game itself fulfilled expectations. The Xfinity Center is the 16th largest arena in D-I, and it was mostly packed with fans donning Terps colors. The student section is done right here, with students filling the sideline across from team benches and nearly and entire space behind one of the baskets on the baseline. It was one of the largest student sections I’ve seen in person.

The atmosphere was solid the whole way through, and we got a taste of what it could really be when Maryland tied the game late in the second half. If I’m picking nits, the size of the arena took away from “noise” potential – though it was much better than Georgetown (as described below).

Students were predictably ruthless with trolling of opposing players, which I am 100% for. Playing on the road should be hostile; it should be nasty. I don’t necessarily condone the “No means No” and “Lock him up” chants rained down upon Terrence Shannon… but I won’t lie it was kind of funny. What was even funnier, though, was the cacophony of boos aimed at the video screen and PA announcer when they reminded everyone to demonstrate good sportsmanship.

P.S. – Maryland. We need to get a bigger screen in the arena. The “jumbo” screen over the court is tiny in comparison to the rest of the arena. I’m told renovations are thankfully on the way.

Game and Player Notes

Pre-game was interesting. Right when I got there, as I was about to enter the court from the media hallway, Donta Scott (a Terps starter and key player) slipped and fell on wet concrete leading into the tunnel. He writhed in pain on the floor next to me and other media members as the staff tended to him and looked for people to blame. Scott didn’t start the game, but he did end up playing 33 minutes with a massive knee brace. He limped the entire time and clearly wasn’t 100%, but kudos to him for toughing it out.

Maryland has had a rough season, and it’s clear a key reason for that is a lack of quality depth. Offense is basically, “Go, Jahmir Young”. Young is fantastic and one of the top scorers in the country, but he cannot win games alone. Julian (or JuJu) Reese is a perfect “know your role” big guy who functions as a roll or dump-off threat, rebounder, and shot deterrer on the other end. Scott isn’t a creator, but he’s a deadly stretch forward who has the strength to punish weaker defenders.

Aside from those three, it’s bleak. Freshmen DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser Jr. clearly have potential, but they aren’t quite where they need to be yet. Jahari Long doesn’t offer much in a reserve role. Head coach Kevin Willard barely plays anyone else. Reese and Young played 38 minutes apiece, Harris-Smith logged 35 out of necessity.

Illinois is a good team. Shannon is a bull in transition and impossible to stop with a head of steam. He shot 16 free throws because there’s literally nothing Maryland defenders could do to stop his 6-6 225 lb. frame traveling at the speed of sound to the bucket. Fellow 6-6 do-everything guard Marcus Domask is a legit talent from Southern Illinois. He had 19 and 12 and took on primary ball-handling responsibilities. With Ty Rodgers as the other guard, Illinois starts five guys who are 6-6 and taller – it’s an intimidating squad. I think the lack of true point guard will bite this team hard in the NCAA Tournament, but they are a good group.

One final note on Illinois – is there a team that whines to officials as much as the Illini? Coleman Hawkins has apparently never fouled anybody in his life. Every single call made against him – and even his teammates – sent Hawkins into a tizzy. Maybe he gets it from his coach Brad Underwood, an excellent coach in every right but one certainly known for bitching at the refs.

Thank You

Thanks to Maryland’s athletic communications department for credentialing Three Man Weave at this game.

GEORGETOWN

Note: I made some waves on Twitter Friday following Three Man Weave’s denial of a media credential for this game. See below for my thoughts on “Credential-gate”.

Pre-game

My wife, friends, and I headed over to the Georgetown campus pre-game to check out one of the most prestigious universities in America. “Rich” doesn’t come close to describing the immediate surrounding area of the campus. Homes that are no doubt worth millions basically bump up the campus and dorms. How do students afford to live here?

The area itself is lovely and charming. We had a couple drinks at The Tombs, a very cool bar in town that once employed one of my favorite comedians, Mike Birbiglia. We walked through the athletics center on campus, which showcased the trophies from the winning days of Georgetown basketball as well as a dope Air Jordan shoe wall.

The Arena

To my dismay, the Georgetown arena was not on campus. In fact, it wasn’t a Georgetown arena at all but rather an NBA arena. The Hoyas play at Capital One Arena, home of the Washington Wizards. The venue seats over 20,000 people, which I don’t need to tell you is far too many. There aren’t even Georgetown banners in the place – very sad and not fair to what is a lively and passionate fanbase.

The crowd was far better than I anticipated. I had heard going in that attendance numbers weren’t great this season (or the past few), and with the Hoyas sitting at 8-17 (1-13) now on the year that isn’t too surprising. But Hoya faithful showed out and the students were strong in numbers. Villanova was a large draw, I’m told, due to alumni living in Philly and likely a healthy contingent of actual Nova fans in attendance.

But the arena destroyed any potential for a real college atmosphere. It didn’t matter how many fans were there – you couldn’t hear them. The whole thing felt hollow. Georgetown basketball deserves far better.

Game and Player Notes

Georgetown started hot, and the bench was very into the game. I saw the passion in the benchwarmers, and it seemed we might be in for an upset special. (Side note: while I appreciated the passion, it’s really hard to see over Ryan Mutombo when he stands up – he’s very tall).

But, as has been the case all season, Georgetown fizzled as the game progressed. Villanova felt in control the whole way. When looking at a side-by-side of the rosters, it isn’t surprising. Nova is playing far below its talent. One could argue that on paper the Wildcats are a top 15 team. Perhaps coaching, chemistry, or some other mythical entity is holding them back.

Georgetown severely lacks talent. Jayden Epps cannot have the highest usage on a good team. No offense to Epps, but he just isn’t that guy (at least yet). He takes horrible shots, and whether that’s by necessity or his own choice the fact remains the same: Georgetown cannot win with that setup.

Supreme Cook is a solid big man, but he’s also a Fairfield transfer and this is the Big East. Dontrez Styles is a fine role player that probably should be asked to do more. Jay Heath is a knockdown shooter who has struggled this year. Rowan Brumbaugh is just a freshman. Ish Massoud has really never been that good in college, but he still should’ve played more in this game. Wayne Bristol gets WAYYYY too many minutes.

Ed Cooley is a good coach, but his rotation decisions in this game were bizarre. It was pretty clear Bristol was out of his element the entire game, and yet he played 23 minutes to Massoud’s 4. Benching Heath at the end of the game was strange as well, especially given the facts that Heath played decently well and is actually a threat to shoot from 3. Brumbaugh has potential, if not for any other reason than he looks like he’s actually trying out there.

This was Villanova’s game the whole way, and really, they could’ve won by a lot more. Both teams combined to shoot 61 3s, but shots weren’t really falling at a high clip. Villanova fans should be livid that this team is 14-11 (7-7). Justin Moore is legit. Eric Dixon is legit. TJ Bamba is legit. Tyler Burton is legit. Brendan Hausen is a stone-cold 3-point killer. And yet the Cats might miss the Tournament. If that isn’t an indictment on Kyle Neptune, I don’t know what is.

Credential-Gate

Three Man Weave was initially denied media credentials for this game. The reason? We did not appear to have a “working function” for the game. This was the second time we have been denied credentials. The first was USC. In that case, the USC SID didn’t like what Matt had to say about Andy Enfield’s performance as head coach in his season preview. Hey USC fans, how’s Andy working out for ya?

Anyway, I tweeted about the denial, annoyed that the Final Four and many other universities – with much better programs than Georgetown – have granted us access in the past. The tweet got the attention of media members and fans, and I appreciate the support it received.

After the uproar and a connection (without our knowledge) got a guy whose name rhymes with Ned Dooley to step in, we were given media credentials and four seats behind the Georgetown bench. I say this part because it was clear that without that intervention, we would have remained denied.

There was a very, very small minority on Twitter who took issue with me tweeting the screenshot of the denial because it had the name of the media communications person in the picture. Well, to that I say, go Google “Georgetown basketball athletic communications” and see what name pops up. That’s literally what I did in the first place.

Also, I’m glad the tweet got attention. Multiple smaller blogs / outlets reached out saying they have been denied in the past by Georgetown for media access. How high and mighty do you have to be deny someone who wants to talk about your team (that is struggling massively by the way) just because they don’t seem like a big enough outlet? It’s a ridiculous attitude, and one not shared by most athletic communications departments. Hopefully this helps change the credentials process going forward.

A sincere thank you to the guy whose name rhymes with Ned Dooley for calling the media contact and getting us great seats and access.

INDIANA STATE

Pre-Game

Jim and I made the 3-hour drive from Dayton to Terre Haute to see my favorite team in the country square off against Drake. The game featured the two best Missouri Valley squads and promised to be a barn-burner.

We posted up at Copper Bar, a very cool local watering hole right around the corner from the Hulman Center. Food was great, beers were great, and, most of all, the people were great. Do the nicest people on Earth reside in Terre Haute, Indiana? I don’t know, but it has to be close.

On the way to the game, I decided to check my junk email to see if we ended up getting media credentials. Unlike the Georgetown situation, this one was truly space dependent, as ISU only had so much media seating available (like four chairs). Thankfully, the approval email was in the junk folder, and we were granted credentials (though Jim was a little sore with me because he was wearing a spinny hat and sweatpants expecting to sit in our normal seats).

A big shoutout goes to the SID at Indiana State (I’d name him, but I’m never sure if people actually want to be named in these). He gave both Jim and I courtside seats at the media table that featured just two other chairs filled by local writers. It was a true treat to be on the court for a fantastic game.

The Arena

Hulman Center is a pretty cookie-cutter arena from a design perspective, but that doesn’t mean it’s bad. It serves its purpose and puts the fans in a good position to where you can feel the noise on the floor. The student section was out in full force behind us on the baseline next to Drake’s bench. Chatter was flowing back and forth between Drake walk-ons and student – I absolutely loved it.

The leader of the student section seemed to be a guy in his 50s – I would love more information on this guy, he was fantastic.

My one gripe with the arena was the concessions setup. Lines were like a hundred deep at all times, perhaps a result of just not having the infrastructure or employment. Not a deal breaker, but Papa Ky wanted some grub.

Game and Player Notes

Robbie Avila. That’s it, that’s the note. (Side note: I really hate this style of journo tweet – it should be retired effective immediately).

Avila is a 6-10 forward who kinda looks like Barry Keoghan and does anything else except play Division I basketball. But not only does he in fact play Division I basketball, he plays it extremely well. His passing and shooting are nearly perfect. His court vision is streets ahead. Even his defense is solid as a rock. The bespectacled, tatted, dad-bodded, sophomore will be America’s hero if ISU makes a run in the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana State also rosters a trio of guards who collectively make up on the best backcourts in the country. Isaiah Swope is one of the quickest players I’ve seen in person. Julian Larry isn’t far behind. And Ryan Conwell can do everything on the offensive end. Jayson Kent is a perfect glue piece that holds the lineup together, and his 20-rebound performance in this game – on his birthday no less – epitomizes his value.

ISU does lack depth, however. Josh Schertz plays six maybe seven guys and that’s it. That could be the Sycs’ kryptonite.

Drake dug itself a hole early, and seemed headed for a blowout when star player Tucker DeVries sprained his ankle. But DeVries toughed it out, scored 26 points, and nearly led his Bulldogs to a comeback win.

I won’t fully recap a game that happened 16 days ago but suffice to say both teams are awesome and both can make noise in the Dance.

I placed a future on Indiana State to make the Final Four after the game. Unfortunately, the Sycs have dropped two straight since then making an at-large bid unlikely. I hope for my sake and America’s sake (they MUST know who Avila is) the Sycamores go dancing.

DAYTON

Pre-Game

The Weave was given four free tickets from someone in the Dayton athletics department (again won’t use names in case they don’t want me to). We were stoked for the opportunity to see the Flyers on their homecourt play against a good St. Bonaventure team.

Matt had a dentist appointment, so Jim and I went to the game with Jim’s brothers’ buddy and a fellow college basketball diehard who made a long drive from his home in New York.

Per the recommendation of Dayton Twitter personality Sully (a standup guy and a true Flyer fan), we enjoyed a beverage at Milano’s pre-game, a sit-down college bar with good food, a good environment, and, best of all, college beer prices.

The Arena

UD Arena is sick. I’m a sucker for unique arena designs, and Dayton’s qualifies as unique. The sideline stands go up and out sort of like wings, but the views are still solid from up top. Both baselines have club-seating almost overhanging the court. Students pack the baseline bleachers behind one basket and go all the way in droves on one of the sidelines. As expected, the students were LOWD and passionate.

When Dayton was rolling, the place was rocking. A+ environment.

Game and Player Notes

DaRon Holmes is awesome and should be an All-American. He was unstoppable in the second half as the Flyers ran their offense through him. There’s nothing on the court Holmes can’t do. He scores at will on the block, via the drive, and even from out past the 3-point line. He’s a great passer and rebounder. He’s one of the best shot-blockers in the country. All he had in this game was 34 points, not bad.

His supporting cast has done yeoman’s work replacing the production of Malachi Smith, the presumed starting point guard and potential All-Conference honoree, who was lost for the season in the first game of the year. Merrimack transfer Javon Bennett has been excellent in his stead, protecting the ball at all costs and providing scoring when needed. Pitt transfer Nate Santos has also been a pleasant surprise and serves as a matchup challenge with his versatility at the 4. Koby Brea is one of the best shooters in the country, Kobe Elvis is also a shooter and capable ball-handler to boot, and Enoch Cheeks has been a valuable two-way guard filling in the gaps.

Dayton’s fanbase deserves a good NCAA Tournament run after COVID took away their best chance at a National Championship. Holmes will be the best player on the court against almost any opponent in the Dance, and the guard play is savvy enough to facilitate a deep run. Anthony Grant’s defensive mindset has trickled down to his team, as the Flyers can be a true pain to score against with how they scrap and claw on every possession.

As for the Bonnies, it’s been a disappointing year. Many thought St. Bonaventure would challenge for an A-10 title this year, but despite ranking in the Top 80 on KenPom, they are just 7-6 in league play. Defense hasn’t been as strong as other Mark Schmidt-led teams, and the offense has had a tendency to stall at times. Though they struggled early in the game against Dayton, the Bonnies showed their potential by taking the lead in the second half and nearly upsetting the Flyers on their home floor.

Welcome back, basketball fans! It’s Year IX (that’s nine, for you haters of Roman numerals - do they still teach those in school?) of the Quick Peek at Futures, and the change in my approach has been steady but clear.

In the beginning (God voice), I would carefully pick out a couple top teams, a few mid-priced squads, and lightly sprinkle some longshots and cross my fingers. Now, it has become more of a portfolio approach: scoop up a wide array of bets at strong prices (some before portal movement and NBA Draft decisions, some after) and aim for overall value. I shape the “portfolio” such that certain teams are more profitable than others, and I’ll indicate those below.

Thus, the framing of the column has changed. Below are the (top) squads I am currently invested in + the price I got them at:

I. KenPom Top 25 – Portfolio (my price)

Purdue (25/1)
Kansas (22/1)
Houston (22/1)
Duke (15/1)
Alabama (60/1)
Marquette (25/1)
Creighton (30/1)
Michigan St. (40/1)
UNC (40/1)
USC (50/1)
Villanova (50/1)
Texas A&M (80/1)
Kansas St. (125/1)

I missed a better “pre-Edey returning” price on Purdue (I think Caesars tickled 40/1 at one point); I regret that. And yes, I have concerns about their construction and Painter’s approach when it comes to postseason success, but I also think I’m getting a 1 or 2 seed at 25/1. Kansas (Bill Self north of 20/1) and Duke (best team in the country, in my opinion) were no-brainers for me. Houston has a little more uncertainty than most Kelvin Sampson years, but he’s a genius, and there’s plenty of pieces for him to build an elite squad in the Big 12. Still, I could have gotten a slightly better price on the Cougars right now.

I am not super thrilled about my Alabama ticket, but I’ll certainly root for it. Let’s keep the focus on the court this year, Tide. Marquette’s offense seduced me, though I do think missing O-Max Prosper will matter on both ends. As heard on the most recent 3MW podcast, Creighton is my national runner-up, so of course I’m in on the Bluejays (elite backcourt trio + Kalkbrenner). Michigan State was an early April swing, and seeing everyone but Hauser return has me very enthused about that 40/1 price. Play your diaper dandies, Tom - I beg you!

The two U_C schools, UNC and USC, have extremely valid coaching questions, but the rosters are undeniably talented and tantalizing. Speaking of outstanding rosters and iffy coaches, Villanova has an absolutely loaded college lineup, but whether Kyle Neptune can maximize that group the way Jay Wright always did is highly debatable. Like Bama, I’m not super pumped about my Texas A&M wager. Finally, of COURSE I am rolling with Jerome Tang and my guy Tylor Perry (aka Kansas State) at triple-digit odds, though they need Nae’Qwan Tomlin back at some point.

Most profitable outcomes: Duke, Marquette, Michigan State, Creighton, Houston
I don’t make much if Alabama, USC or Texas A&M win.

II. KenPom Top 25 – NOT in Portfolio (best currently available price I could find)

UConn (22/1)
Gonzaga (30/1)
Arizona (25/1)
Baylor (60/1)
Tennessee (33/1)
Arkansas (30/1)
Auburn (70/1)
Texas (40/1)
Kentucky (18/1)
Illinois (80/1)
Wisconsin (150/1)
Maryland (74/1)

Of this group, the ones I’m most tempted to add are Arizona, Tennessee and Arkansas. Tommy Lloyd’s up-tempo, two-big style has had issues in the postseason, but Keshad Johnson makes them more versatile. It’s also difficult for me to trust Caleb Love, but they also won big with Kerr Kriisa, so maybe it’s not as big of an issue to have an erratic chucker in the backcourt. Plus, the ‘Cats should win the Pac-12. Both the Vols and the Hogs have major two-way upside, and Arkansas in particular has proven that its style is conducive to tournament success.

The other teams I avoided for various reasons, whether it be price or a general lack of belief in the true ceiling.

Though the talent is there, I generally resist the idea of a UConn repeat, especially after the losses of three absolutely vital pieces to last year’s title. Plus, the Huskies’ initial odds were up around 10/1 or 12/1, and they did not drop too far when some NBA Draft decisions went against them. I do not trust Gonzaga’s defense whatsoever, while Baylor simply has too many questions for me to invest at this point.

Auburn’s backcourt has upside but still makes me uneasy. Texas’ coaching staff is not my cup of tea (not limited to just Rodney Terry – go look at it and guess why). And I certainly do not trust mid-tier Big Ten teams (Illinois, Wisconsin, Maryland). Generally speaking, Kentucky is interesting this year given the structure of its roster (more guards, more shooting), but they are priced like a top five team and that, frankly, is silly. Perhaps Big Blue’s odds will come back down to earth with all of the frontcourt injuries.

I will be keeping my eye on this group though, likely adding one or two more to someone who flashes major potential in the non-conference.

Other notable exclusions: UCLA, Miami (FL), Colorado, Virginia, Indiana

III. Other Potential Tourney Teams in the Portfolio

St. John’s (50/1, 80/1, 100/1)
FAU (70/1 and 80/1)
Memphis (75/1 and 80/1)
Florida (125/1)
San Diego St. (125/1)
Ohio St. (150/1)
Saint Mary’s (150/1)
Texas Tech (150/1)
Clemson (200/1)

I believe all of these teams will be in the Big Dance, and thus I could not resist some long shot numbers. The Aztecs of San Diego State helped me make money by reaching the Final Four at this exact same price last year, and all MWC conference title odds indicate their strong chance at topping the league again.

Of course I’m riding with St. John’s and Rick Pitino; the roster might not be quite there yet, but I believe in Ricky P. Both FAU and Memphis are loaded and should reign atop the American. The primary concern for both is surviving brutal non-conference gauntlets with their confidence fully intact.

Florida, Ohio St., Texas Tech and Clemson are some power conference teams that had strong offseasons. The Gators hit a few home runs in the portal (and beat Miami in a secret scrimmage!!); it’s time for Todd Golden to get things going in Gainesville. The Buckeyes’ young talent is appealing (Bruce Thornton Hive, assemble), and Clemson is overflowing with shooting and has a healthy PJ Hall. The Red Raiders have been my pet team all summer/fall; I just cannot imagine Grant McCasland and that roster being anything but terrific defensively.

Lastly, Saint Mary’s continues to add talent, and Randy Bennett is as good as it gets on the sideline. The offense should be improved this year, compensating for some slight steps back defensively.

IV. The Longest Shots (Ignore For Your Own Good)

Ole Miss (200/1)
Georgetown (250/1)
Providence (250/1)
Missouri (275/1)
BYU (300/1)
Boise St. (300/1)
Wake Forest (300/1)
Washington St. (500/1)
Utah (500/1)
California (1000/1)
McNeese St. (3000/1)

This section is proof I have no self-control and am chasing the rush of a Final Four run from a random team. But hey, we’re coming off a season where the Final Four included FAU, so let’s pretend ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!

Hand up: the Georgetown speculative ticket pre-portal is a total dud, and Washington St. got hit by more departures than I (and they) expected. For the Cal ticket to matter, Jaylon Tyson needs a waiver. And yes, McNeese, I know. I have a problem. Admitting is the first step.

For all the others, though, I stand by the upside at the number I secured. Mizzou to its first Final Four, confirmed!

As our traditional previews continue to reside in The Almanac for a second straight year, this will serve as our hub for our 2023-24 Preseason Top 40.

This page includes the teams and a link to each tweet thread that contains our thoughts on the squad. Only a few more months until tip-off, folks!

40. Ole Miss

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

39. UCLA

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

38. Xavier

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

37. Miami FL

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

36. St. John’s

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

35. Ohio State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

34. Auburn

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

33. Memphis

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

32. Texas Tech

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

31. Mississippi State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

30. Indiana

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

29. Virginia

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

28. Michigan

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

27. Wisconsin

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

26. Maryland

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

25. San Diego State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

24. North Carolina

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

23. USC

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

22. Saint Mary’s

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

21. Illinois

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

20. Florida

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

19. Arkansas

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

18. Alabama

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

17. Villanova

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

16. Baylor

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

15. Texas A&M

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

14. Kentucky

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

13. Texas

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

12. Gonzaga

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

11. Arizona

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

10. Florida Atlantic

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

9. Tennessee

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

8. UConn

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

7. Marquette

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

6. Creighton

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

5. Michigan State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

4. Houston

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

3. Kansas

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

2. Purdue

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

1. Duke

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

Here we go… no explanations, just the bracket:

Road Trip

I’ve put off writing this recap for nearly a week but feel compelled to memorialize one of my few road trips of the 2022-23 college basketball season.

The wife and I hit the road from Chicago on Sunday, January 15th and drove 320 miles to my folks’ house in St. Louis to stay the night. The next morning, we traveled 238 miles to stay with friends in Overland Park, KS (suburb outside Kansas City). On Tuesday we set off for the Little Apple, the glorious town of Manhattan, KS, where the K-State Wildcats call home. Following a wild OT affair with KU, we embarked the next morning to our alma mater, the University of Missouri, for a showdown with Arkansas. Then on Thursday it was off to Champaign, IL to see the Illini take on the Indiana Hoosiers. That night we braved the cobwebs forming around our eyes and drove back to our home in Chicago.

All in all, it was a 1,364-mile roundtrip, or about 21 hours and 18 minutes of driving as the Honda flies. And it was 100% well worth it.

Kansas State

I was invited to attend K-State / KU (and Mizzou / Arkansas) by WagerTalk’s Adam Trigger (@TopFlightSI) and Kelly Stewart (@KellyInVegas), the latter of whom generously found my wife and I two tickets in the Octagon of Doom. Sadly, Adam’s flight was cancelled from Syracuse, but he found us later in Columbia.

The Octagon did not disappoint. It was loud and full of purple-clad lunatics chanting “F**k KU” among other things. As a Mizzou alum, I was on board with the mutual hatred of the Jayhawks, a team that’s been superior to both programs for about forever. But, in these rivalry games, anything can happen.

Think they’re saying “good luck KU” pic.twitter.com/MeOU9flpHm

— Three Man Weave (@3MW_CBB) January 18, 2023

K-State got off to a fast start, punching Kansas in the mouth with a 33-19 opening. Though the Jayhawks eventually came back and took the lead in overtime, the Wildcats established early that they would not roll over easily for “big brother.”

K-State won the game in overtime thanks to some poor free throw shooting by KU and a ballsy play call by head coach Jerome Tang that ended with an alley-oop to superstar Keyontae Johnson. Desi Sills was massive off the pine, pouring in 24 points and making up for Markquis Nowell’s oddly quiet evening.

When the clock hit 0:00, the K-State student section stormed the court and rehashed the “F*** KU” chants. It was a sight to behold, though not everyone was pleased. Coach Tang grabbed a mic and climbed the scorer’s table and gave a speech to the K-State faithful. I didn’t quite catch everything but suffice to say he wasn’t thrilled at the vulgar language used by his fans. Eh, whatever, I thought it was funny. Rivalries are awesome, it’s clean old-fashioned fun.

Overall, Bramlage Coliseum is one of the best venues I’ve attended, and this was one of the best games I have seen live. The student section setup that starts in the middle of the floor and wraps around one corner of the octagon is perfect. The various traditional chants are unique, and the atmosphere is truly electric. It’s also hot as balls in there. Close quarters equals a major temperature rise, even at the very top of the arena.

I’m still not a fan of Willie the Wildcat, who remains just a normal guy with a Wildcat head on his human body. It’s never made sense to me, and it never will.

Manhattan as a town? While I LOVED me some Taco Lucha, let’s just say I wasn’t regretting my choice of attending Mizzou. The nightlife seemed lacking to say the least (note: one Tuesday night sample size).

Mizzou

The weather put a literal and figurative damper on our time in Columbia. It was rainy, windy, and cold so we didn’t get out much and see the campus or visit any of our old haunts. But it was still nice being back at Mizzou, a tremendously underrated university and campus.

Mizzou Arena is a “solid” venue. It’s not super unique, but it still has its charm – especially with a fully engaged crowd. The students showed up for Arkansas, which was a great sight to see given the recent history of our basketball program. Not sense I was in college over a decade ago has there been as much interest in going to see the Tigers play.

Also, Mizzou students had a nice little “F*** KU” chant themselves, to the tune of Mr. Brightside. I liked it!

Wow Mizzou fans are wishing “good luck KU” too! pic.twitter.com/C5a87QmXdp

— Three Man Weave (@3MW_CBB) January 19, 2023

Arkansas came in with a mission and jumped out to an early lead, much like Mizzou did at Bud Walton earlier this year. But the Tigers showed heart and too a 5-point lead early in the second half. Much-hyped transfer Isiaih Mosley was back on the floor, much to the crowd’s delight. Though he didn’t score a ton, he made an impact and lifted the spirits of the crowd.

The Hogs had the Tigers on the ropes late in the game, leading by 10 points with just five minutes to play. Some fortunate calls, free throw shooting, and big-time shot-making allowed the Tigers to claw back into it, and a fantastic play call by Dennis Gates (yes, parallels to the game before) sealed it at the end.

This game had 66 free throws and a foul was called every 43 seconds. While it wasn’t quite the 77-free throw affair we saw on Tuesday, it was an incredibly long and at times tedious affair. Despite not going to overtime, it lasted just three minutes shorter than K-State / KU.

Mizzou escaped with the win, I high fived Adam, Kelly, and the hillbilly in front of us in jubilation.

The atmosphere and the arena itself pale in comparison to the Octagon of Doom. I’m objective. Granted, had this game been against KU, I might have felt differently.

Illinois

By this point, I was running on fumes. We had driven at least a couple hundred miles each day, and the game was a later tip. The shitty weather didn’t help – it was colder than a witch’s tit in a tin bra, and windy to boot.

State Farm Center is very cool. It’s a dome-like spaceship of a venue, with a neat, pleated ceiling. The concourses and the maze that is each seating section is absolute trash, but otherwise it’s a great place to see a game.

Unfortunately, this particular game was a snoozer. Indiana dominated from start to finish, and Illinois looked as they did earlier this season when they lost by 22 to Mizzou. Brad Underwood got his courtesy technical in, and despite some late runs this game was never really competitive.

The media area didn’t help the matter. We were crammed in like sardines at a table in the corner. Additionally, there are far too many club suites in State Farm Center, it takes away a bit from the atmosphere and certainly limits overall capacity.

The Orange Krush, Illinois’ student section was out in full force, and their setup is great. Students sit in the lower bowl of the arena around one sideline and baseline of the court – kind of like K-State but way closer. Nothing could stop the Hoosiers that night, though. Not even clever chanting.

This was by far the worst game, however… it’s right there with the Octagon for best venue of the three.

I went to Portland, Oregon for the 2nd Phil Knight Invitational; it had been five long years since last stepping foot in the Rose City. In 2017 I made the pilgrimage to PK80 with ole Matt and Jim as simple fans, but for PK85 I was a big, bad, cool media guy.  

Rather than recap individual games in detail (there’s plenty of good write-ups out there), I want to run through all 16 teams and give some takeaways.

The tournament was split into two brackets, the Phil Knight Invitational and the Phil Knight Legacy. North Carolina was the presumed favorite in the Invitational and Duke was supposed to capture the Legacy title – neither happened. Instead, it was UConn who took home the Invitational hardware, upending Iowa State in the championship, and Purdue who knocked off Duke just after taking down Gonzaga. Those two champions were indeed the most impressive schools of the bunch and were rewarded for their efforts with spots in the top ten in the AP poll.

Phil Knight Invitational

Alabama

Alabama had a tough trio of contests and was a part of the presumed best opening game. Unfortunately, injuries to Malik Hall and Jaden Akins made the Tide’s first round match with Michigan State a bit anti-climactic, but nevertheless Alabama impressed. It followed its Sparty beatdown with a tough loss to UConn and then a thrilling a 4-OT win over North Carolina. The Tide left Portland with two Q1 wins under their belt.

Brandon Miller was the highlight for Alabama. The freshman phenom averaged 18.7 PPG and looked unstoppable at times. His 6-9 frame plus length and shooting ability should make him a surefire lottery pick this summer. It was also nice seeing Jahvon Quinerly’s confidence grow over the course of the tournament. Oats had been easing his star guard back into the fold, but he looked every bit himself against UNC when he scored 21 points, grabbed 6 boards, and dished out 8 assists in 44 minutes.

Overall, Bama is a team to be reckoned with. The Tide are extremely athletic, long, and talented and compete at a high level on both ends of the floor.

Iowa State

Arguably the most surprising team of the tournament, Iowa State left Portland 2-1 with wins over Villanova and North Carolina. The Clones’ Nova win over Nova was way more comfortable than the overtime result suggests – ISU held a 16-point lead in the second half. Unfortunately, that win might not age well with Nova in the dumps.

The win over UNC was truly impressive, though. Head coach TJ Otzelberger is proving once again to be a wizard in the non-conference portion of the schedule, and he’s winning with way less talent (on paper) than the majority of his Power 6 peers. The Clones simply outwork their opponent. They are relentless on the defensive end, and it helps having two rim protectors on the back line in Osun Osunniyi and Hason Ward.

Freshman point guard Tamin Lipsey looks to be ahead of schedule, and he’s a menace on the defensive end. Bonnies transfer Jaren Holmes has taken on the high usage Izaiah Brockington role, and Caleb Grill exploded for 31 points on 11/15 shooting against UNC. This is a tournament team.

Michigan State

Sparty’s tournament was underwhelming, but that was in large part due to injuries. Izzo was without two of his best players in Hall and Akins, and Joey Hauser was essentially playing on one leg. Michigan State’s opponents were also lackluster (relatively speaking). After Alabama, the Spartans played an Oregon team that was more decimated than they were and then played non-power Portland.

That Portland game is actually kind of sneaky. Due to tournament scheduling, Sparty had to play at Chiles Center (Portland’s home gym), which means it should be counted as a true road game. With the way Portland has played this year, that could end up being a Q1 win, and it’s a virtual lock to be a Q2 victory.

I wasn’t too impressed with Michigan State. AJ Hoggard leaves a ton to be desired, and his leadership qualities are questionable. Hauser is a fine shooter and that’s really it. Tyson Walker was terrific and by far Michigan State’s best player over the 3-day stretch.

North Carolina

The most disappointing team of PK85 was hands down the North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC left Portland 1-2 with zero Q1 wins, and it was nearly an 0-3 weekend. The Tar Heels were down five points to Portland midway through the second half of their opening game before pulling out a late win. They then blew a seven-point lead with just under five minutes to play to lose to Iowa State and capped off the tourney with a 4-OT loss to Alabama.

It was a disappointing performance, but it was also an incredibly frustrating one. The talent on this roster is obvious, and at points in all three games UNC seemed to be in control. But late game execution killed them. Head coach Hubert Davis is to blame, as are his star guards – particularly Caleb Love.

Davis’s decision making and play-calling down the stretch of the Alabama game was awful, and after the ISU game he made the blatantly incorrect statement that the Clones had never played a 1-3-1 zone prior to playing UNC (they play it, like, all the time).

Love was arguably worse. People that didn’t watch him play this past weekend will look at his stats and go, “wow, 23 points per game – not bad!” But people who were in the gym know how terrible he was. In the Alabama game, Love made so many selfish plays down the stretch, it would make any playground ballhog blush. UNC had the ball three or four times at the end of the game with chances to win it, and more times than not it came down to Love dribbling 100 times and forcing a tough step-back.

Love had 34 points against Alabama. He shot the ball 36 times. His O-rating over the last two games was 81 and 95. For UNC to get back to where it should be (atop the national totem pole), Davis needs to reel in his star.

Oregon

Oregon gets a semi-pass for its 1-2 performance. The Ducks had one competent guard due to injuries and then lost star forward N’Faly Dante for the Villanova game. Given the injury trouble, Oregon fared pretty well. It kept the game close against Oregon and then controlled Villanova wire-to-wire despite having six scholarship players.

The Ducks could be dangerous once healthy. They are one of the biggest teams I have seen in person – 7-0 freshman Kel’el Ware is a certified freak. His presence plus Dante and Nate Bittle gives them a frontline that can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the country.

Oregon needs its players back. Will Richardson needs help in the backcourt, and Quincy Guerrier should not be playing the 3. Thankfully, two Q1 losses won’t doom the Ducks’ NCAA Tournament hopes. They’ll just hope they can weather the storm while their players are on the mend.

Portland

The Pilots left PK85 with just one win, but they also left with everyone’s respect. After scaring the crap out of UNC, Portland took down Villanova with relative ease and nearly beat Michigan State after a late-game flurry. This is the best Portland team we’ve seen since 2010, and all the credit in the world is due to Shantay Legans, a wizard of a coach who has turned this program around immediately.

Portland’s offense is potent. The Pilots’ shooting is deadly, they get to the line at a very high rate, and they take high percentage shots. Scoring 1.12 PPP against UNC, 1.20 PPP against Villanova, and 1.22 PPP against Michigan State is an impressive feat for anyone, let alone a “middling” WCC squad.

Expect Portland to be feisty in conference play. While the Pilots likely won’t be repping the WCC in the NCAA Tournament, they’ll give opponents hell and have a real shot at finishing in the top three of the league.

UConn

UConn was the best team I saw all weekend (with slight apologies to Purdue). None of the Huskies’ games against Oregon, Alabama, or Iowa State were ever in doubt – they thoroughly dominated each and every one.

There are no weaknesses on this team. They are huge, they can shoot, they can score, they can defend. Per KenPom, UConn ranks top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the only team in the nation that can claim that.

How are they doing it? For starters, 7-2 freshman Donovan Clingan is way ahead of schedule. He won PK85 MVP despite playing less than 20 minutes per game. When he’s on the floor, UConn is unstoppable. He can score on anyone in the post, he grabs every rebound, and he is one of the best shot deterrers in the country. Through eight games Clingan has an O-rating of 125.7 and a 15.4% block rate. Absurd.

East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton is also much better than I initially gave him credit for. I thought he might struggle with a step up in competition, but he’s proven me wrong. He’s very poised with the ball in his hands and at 6-5 gives UConn a ton of length at the point of attack. His transfer buddy Joey Calcaterra (San Diego) is also much better than advertised. Then you have All-American candidate Adama Sanogo, budding star Jordan Hawkins, athletic freak Andre Jackson, and stretch 4 Alex Karaban. This team is just loaded. We’ll see if Dan Hurley can finally get over the hump in the Dance.

Villanova

I have nothing nice to say about this team. Villanova is now 2-5 with losses to Temple, Michigan State, Iowa State, Portland, and Oregon. The Cats have dropped from 19 to 55 in KenPom and look utterly hopeless.

Part of my ire is based on betting, of course. You see, I took Villanova -3 against Oregon on Sunday. The Ducks had six scholarship players available and were missing arguably their best player and a significant part of their backcourt. Villanova not only lost the game, but it was also basically behind the entire contest. There’s just no excuse for that.

Chris Arcidiacano playing 30 minutes per game is a problem, but it’s far from the only one. Kyle Neptune didn’t add any size in the portal, and his team is being destroyed on the interior. Now, of course we know that Cam Whitmore and Justin Moore are out of the lineup. That matters, but they cannot save this team – especially Moore who likely won’t be back until February, if that. Whitmore is going to be a stud, but he isn’t worth 10 points to the line.

Nova is in a bad place right now, and it will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and finish sub-.500 in the Big East unless something drastic changes.

Phil Knight Legacy

Duke

Duke went from looking invincible the first two games of the season to having some major question marks.

The Blue Devils barely survived Oregon State in the opening round of PK85, as they had clearly never seen a zone before in their lives. That’s the same Oregon State team that lost to Florida by 13 and Portland State by 10 in the same tournament. Duke was 16/60 from the field, which is up there for worst shooting performances in program history.

The next game was better. Duke looked more itself and beat a very good Xavier team. Jeremy Roach was excellent, scoring 21 points on 9/15 shooting. But in the final game, Duke was dominated by Purdue.

What’s wrong with Duke? Well, Dereck Lively isn’t that good, for starters. He’s just not an effective college player at this point and is racking up 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes. Lively had a couple bright spots, but he was largely a nobody over the weekend. Fellow freshman “phenom” Dariq Whitehead has also been terrible, though maybe we can afford him an “off injury” excuse. His O-rating is 82.2 right now, and never once did I notice him at the PK85.

Kyle Filipowski was solid, as he’s been all year, and Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell were hot and cold throughout. Overall, it’s a young team still clearly trying to figure things out. Duke will be very good in March, but right now it’s a work in progress. Inconsistent guard play combined with a slower start than anticipated by a few of its star freshmen has stalled the Dukies out of the gate. Also, the jury is still out on Scheyer as a head coach; we need a bigger sample size.

Florida

The Weave was high on the Gators entering the season, but it’s clear this team is still ironing out some things. With a 1-2 performance at PK85, Florida has zero Q1 wins through seven games.

Florida’s opening match with Xavier was much closer than the final score indicated. It was largely a back-and-forth affair, but a couple large miss-dunk / 3-points on other end swings sealed the Gators’ fate. Xavier shot 10/20 from deep against Florida, which was perhaps a bit of an anomaly. But the Muskies were getting good looks. This Gator team should be nails on the defensive end with its length and size, but as of today it ranked 66th nationally in KenPom in defensive efficiency.

A blowout loss to West Virginia was the real eye opener. It appears chemistry is still a work in progress on the roster, and it’s more than a bit strange that Kowacie Reeves can’t get on the court. He was very efficient in Florida’s first three games, and the Gators’ analytical staff has to be well aware of that. Something clearly is happening internally.

Trey Bonham has been a bright spot for Florida thus far, though Kyle Lofton has really struggled on the offensive end. Big man Colin Castleton had a rough tournament, scoring just 8.7 PPG on 10/26 shooting. Whatever is wrong with Florida needs to be corrected quickly if it wants to compete for a Tourney bid. A massive home game against UConn looms large on December 7th.

Gonzaga

Relatively speaking, this year’s version of Gonzaga is “down”. But Gonzaga’s down year is still a top ten team. Yes, Purdue whooped this squad in Portland, but the Zags were up double digits on Xavier for a significant portion of that game, and they still have a 16-point win over Kentucky and a now-impressive Michigan State victory. This team is fine.

Gonzaga is going to be scary later this season. Early “struggles” can likely be explained by inexperienced players taking on larger roles. Nolan Hickman had three terrific games in Portland after a rocky start to his season; he is going to be a stud for the remainder of the year. Julian Strawther finally broke through against Xavier, and he should be one of the nation’s best 3-point shooters going forward.

Drew Timme is still a top five player nationally; Mark Few is still a top ten coach. Anton Watson is quickly figuring out his role and should be much improved as the season goes along, as should Malachi Smith who is still adjusting from Chattanooga. This team has plenty of upside and plenty of reason to be thought of as a national title contender. While the defensive end could stand to be shored up, there’s arguably no better offensive team in the country.

Oregon State

The Beavers tricked me by playing Duke close, and Wayne Tinkle’s press conference made me think twice about having them in the dumpster. Freshman point guard Jordan Pope is a stud, unfortunately his teammates are not.

OSU never led in either the Florida game or Portland State game. The latter contest is, of course, the most worrisome. Twice now have the Vikings daddied the Beavers, beating them by double digits on both occasions.

Oregon State might be Cal this year, but it’s hard to see it winning many more Pac-12 contests. It appears to be another season in the cellar for Tinkle and Co., but at least we can give the Beavers the “inexperience excuse”. Few teams in the country have less experience and continuity than OSU.

Portland State

First off, if you’ve never seen PSU head coach Jase Coburn coach a game, you’re missing out. There might not be a more energetic coach in the country – he’s wonderful and his attitude is contagious.

The Vikings left the PK85 with a win, which is one more than expected going in. Kudos to PSU for competing and putting up a bit of a fight against Gonzaga and West Virginia. This team is exciting to watch – they play as energetically as their coach implies and rank 9th nationally in tempo.  

A tough schedule has kept Portland State off the public radar, but this team could make serious noise in Big Sky play.

Purdue

Along with UConn, Purdue was the most impressive team of PK85. No team had a better slate of wins than the Boilers who beat West Virginia by 12, Gonzaga by 18 and Duke by 19. Purdue dominated its opponents in every facet, putting the nation on notice.

Everyone is well aware of Zach Edey, the 7-4 behemoth that roams Purdue’s middle. He ranks #1 in KenPom’s Player of the Year award and is currently averaging a ridiculous 21.7 PPG, 12.0 RPG, and 2.7 BPG and should be the frontrunner for Player of the Year. But his supporting cast has been excellent.

Freshman point guard Braden Smith isn’t just one of the best freshmen in the country, he’s one of the best point guards period. He’s tough, he’s a leader, he makes smart plays, he takes good shots, he’s everything you want and more in a lead guard. Additionally, his fellow freshman Fletcher Loyer has been lighting the nets on fire from deep.

The Boilers are a scary team right now. Like UConn, they don’t have an obvious weakness, and the rest of the college basketball world should be VERY nervous that a team as young as Purdue has already hit its stride.

West Virginia

Admittedly, West Virginia was the team I saw the least while in Portland, so apologies to the great Bob Huggins. This team has shot up the analytics rankings, sitting now at #28 after starting the year #73. Huggins always seems to do more with less, but in the preseason, it was a real question if he could do it with a group that looks like a jumbled mess on paper.

Transfer Erik Stevenson is having his best year ever. He’s shooting over 48% from deep while leading the Mountaineers in usage. In a blowout against Florida, Stevenson put up 15 points and grabbed 7 boards. Fellow transfers Tre Mitchell and Emmitt Matthews are also playing well, and the defensive effort of Kedrian Johnson, among others, has made WVU a tough opponent.

Xavier

Xavier’s schedule did it no favors, but the Musketeers performed admirably, beating Florida and staying competitive with Duke and Gonzaga.

Sean Miller has himself a squad capable of competing near the top of the Big East. Colby Jones has the size and skill to be a pro, the Freemantle / Nunge combination up front is one of the nation’s best, and transfer point guard Souley Boum is running the offense beautifully. Credit also to senior Adam Kunkel who proved he was much more than just a shooter against Florida and Duke. His absence was felt against Gonzaga, and his Muskies will hope to have him back in the lineup ASAP.

As is the usual for this website (don’t call it a blog), I am late writing up a recap of a game I attended in person. So it goes.

The inaugural Brew City Battle featured Stanford and Wisconsin, two teams not exactly known for their uptempo or offensive nature (but more on that later). The event itself was something Badger head coach Greg Gard has ben trying to make happen for about a decade. A basketball game on a baseball diamond - a pretty cool concept.

The layout of the venue was indeed pretty dope, and such a strange sight for these eyes to see. On the Brewer infield was a regulation-sized basketball court complete with bleachers on one side and press tables and court side chairs surrounding the floor.

The crowd was all Wisconsin. I honestly didn’t see one Stanford fan the entire evening. Badger fans showed up in solid numbers and put down what I can only assume was a copious amount of beer.

A couple of interesting dynamics popped up as a result of this setup:

1. Temperature. It was hovering just above freezing outside in Milwaukee, and that trickled down into the field. While the press box was nice and cozy, the field level was probably a good 10-15 degrees cooler. I have it on good authority from my wife she was very cold in the stands.

2. Acoustics. The PA announcer almost sounded muffled in the cavernous environment, very much unlike a normal basketball arena. And fans away from the courtside seats likely had trouble hearing everything that was said. The horns and buzzers were softer as well. When Badger fans got “loud'“ at key moments, it was still sort of like a dull roar.

3. Depth perception. It’s been said shooting in giant football stadiums is difficult for players - well, how about a baseball stadium where the stands aren’t parallel to the court and the backdrop is very much unlike any player has experienced. It’s no surprise Stanford and Wisconsin combined to shoot 6/36 from 3 and 39/106 overall. (Though the 4th graders at half-time did hit a couple bombs in their scrimmage.)

The game itself was a slog — but, to be fair, that would have been the case in any environment between these two teams. Neither looks to score at a high rate in transition and both are physical, blue-collar type of teams.

Wisconsin was the better team throughout the contest. Gard’s offense was getting much easier looks than Stanford coach Jerod Haase’s sorry excuse for one. Badger forward Tyler Wahl looks to be the next breakout star in Madison, and his point guard, Chucky Hepburn, has clearly taking a step forward in his sophomore season.

The Badgers entered halftime with a 32-20 lead. Stanford was 0/9 from downtown, Wisconsin was 3/11 — and one of those makes was banked in. Stanford’s 12 turnovers was the most egregious stat, as Wisconsin isn’t exactly known as a defense that forces a high rate of miscues.

The second half was more of the same, though Stanford did show a little more fight, cutting the lead to five with just under 8 to play. Tree forward Brandon Angel had a great game, and he looks like he could enjoy a breakout season. The same cannot be said, however, about his “star” teammate Harrison Ingram.

Ingram did nothing on Friday. He finished with six points on 2/8 shooting. This is the second game I’ve watched Stanford play this year - which is already too many - and it’s the second game where I have totally forgotten he even exists, let alone that he was a 5-star recruit. Many outlets tagged Ingram to be a top 100 player in the sport this season — that just isn’t the case so far. Stanford’s best player in the early going has been Davidson transfer Michael Jones. If Ingram continues his invisible play, Stanford won’t even sniff the NCAA Tournament.

Elsewhere, as expected big man Maxime Raynaud didn’t have near the impact he had against Pacific. Wisconsin has a ton of size, and he was largely held at bay. For the Badgers, outside of Wahl and Hepburn, it was encouraging to see Jordan Davis produce at an efficient level. In addition to his banked triple, Davis poured in 11 more points to rank second on the team in scoring.

The final score was 60-50 in favor of Wisconsin. As alluded to above, the Badgers are clearly the better team, and Stanford has much to work on.

As for the Brew City Battle overall, I loved it. We need more unique events like this in college basketball (just maybe not on an aircraft carrier outdoors). Kudos to Intersport, the Brewers, and Milwaukee for putting on a great event.

Another season, another Peek at Futures! This is now the Elite Eighth edition of this column, a college basketball preseason fixture akin to the clocks turning back. Fortunately, unlike that confusing time change, this column will not end after this year. And hopefully someday The Almanac turns eight, as well – buy yours today!

Sidenote: “eighth” is a weird word to look at. It seems like it’s spelled wrong. I dunno.

At this point, “Peek” is fairly misrepresentative term. This has become a “Jim cannot control himself at the futures window” exercise, for better or for worse.

Fortunately, it has been profitable in recent years. Last year, Kansas 18/1 was a winner, and Villanova 25/1 reaching the Final Four as well prevented the need for hedging. I rode the Jayhawks (hedge-free) in the title game, so needless to say: I owe Remy Martin and David McCormack a couple drinks.

I detailed almost all of these in a tweet thread back in April (here), so you’re not allowed to yell at me for these being stale value. Load up in April! It’s fun to say you got cool prices!

On to the madness of my portfolio…

Tier I. The Real Contenders

Kentucky 14/1
Houston 16/1 and 22/1
Baylor 20/1 and 22/1
Gonzaga 20/1

This tier is larger than normal, but I prefer Houston and Baylor (my picks to be national finalists) to the other two. To me, they possess the best and deepest backcourts in the country, replete with scorers, shooters and creators. Both Lone Star schools also have brilliant coaches and a tremendous collection of complementary talent. If Jarace Walker (Houston’s freshman phenom) and Jalen Bridges (Baylor’s veteran ‘tweener forward) deliver on their potential, these two should play deep into March.

I bought Kentucky immediately after these odds came out, as I was confident Oscar Tshiebwe would return to school. John Calipari was less active in the transfer portal than I expected, which dulls my excitement for the ‘Cats somewhat. Still, 14/1 is better than the market currently offers, so I shall not complain. Cason Wallace – go nuts, young man.

As for Gonzaga: if the Bulldogs win a title and I do not make any money on it, I would cry waterfalls of tears. I had them 50/1 in 2017 (lost in the title game), 12/1 in 2021 (lost in the title game), and 10/1 last year (when they ranked #1 most of the year). I scooped this price up at Westgate right when Drew Timme and Julian Strawther returned to school. Not sure I could recommend the Zags at 10/1 right now, though, considering the major questions defensively.

Tier II. The Fringe Fellas

Texas 50/1
Alabama 50/1
Creighton 55/1
TCU 100/1
Oregon 100/1
Indiana 100/1
Virginia 100/1
San Diego State 100/1 and 125/1
Dayton 100/1 and 150/1
Xavier 120/1
Florida 150/1

Another huge tier! Did I mention I have no self-control? This increase is primarily due to gambling on value as the offseason begins. With the way the portal shifts talent around, it creates opportunity to get coaches/programs at a discount early on – if you can handle having your money tied up for a year. And wouldn’t you know it, I hate liquidity!

These are mostly fliers with hopes that the value will improve. Luckily, almost all of them have. Alabama is still available at 50/1, but most of the other prices are gone. None turned out to be real “home run” type of bets, but I expect the majority of them to go dancing. At that point, anything is possible.

At current prices for these teams, I’m still intrigued by TCU 50/1 (most shops), San Diego State 80/1 (PointsBet), Dayton 80/1 (most shops) and Florida 90/1 (PointsBet). Circa has better prices on a couple, but I don’t live in the desert anymore, so I feel dirty giving those prices out.

Tier III. Do Something Smarter With Your Money

Virginia Tech 175/1
Saint Louis 200/1
Oklahoma St. 200/1
Wyoming 200/1
Mizzou 500/1 (just let me be a homer, ok)
VCU 700/1
Tulane 1500/1
Liberty 1500/1

These bets are almost all for $20 or less. They are simply dart throws to hopefully steal a Sweet 16 team for some upside. I’d definitely prefer betting all of these teams To Make the Final Four at shorter odds — far easier to hedge out if they advance.

They all can probably be had for at least this number: I know Circa has Saint Louis (300/1) and Wyoming (500/1) at better deals. Again, these are not recommendations. Simply outlining what I have because transparency is beauty!

Tier IV. The Bad Batch

Louisville 200/1
Washington St. 300/1

These turned out to be bad bets. Not going to torch them yet, but it’s already time to mentally eat the losses. Ok, fine – I might light the Louisville ticket on fire already. If you can’t beat shorthanded Lenoir-Rhyne…

Tier V. The Stay Aways

Duke and Arkansas – both between 12/1 and 17/1

Contrary to what this section would have you believe, I really like both rosters. But both teams are extremely young, and I expect early turbulence that could provide better value (or clarity that neither is worth betting). Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively have sat out a ton of the preseason for the Blue Devils and could miss games, and Jon Scheyer could take some time to get acclimated to the big chair. Arkansas, meanwhile, typically has a swoon in December and/or January, and with massive roster upheaval and youth, I expect something similar. Both teams could be peaking in March, though, so I will be keeping an eye out for an appealing midseason price.

Villanova – somewhere between 37/1 and 45/1

In the past, Villanova was a darling of this column. I still daydream about the stress-free run to the 2018 championship. However, I fear for the Wildcats in the Jay Wright aftermath. That’s not because I doubt Kyle Neptune (I believe, long-term), but because this team is young and injured. I’m bearish on Justin Moore’s availability until the heart of conference play, and Cam Whitmore is without a timeline currently. The ‘Cats could struggle in the non-conference and then have to rediscover an identity late.

Michigan St. – somewhere between 50/1 and 80/1

Michigan State should have a balanced offensive attack…and what else? It’s hard to say. The lack of true physical intimidators in the paint means it will be difficult for a Tom Izzo team to play like a Tom Izzo team. Plus, the early season schedule is an absolute terror gauntlet of epic proportions, meaning the Spartans could struggle mightily out of the gates.

Conclusion

As you read this, you might have said to yourself, “Jim, it’s not even impressive if you win one of these because you bet so many.” To which I say: YEAH, you’re probably right! But let’s not forget, I’m hoping to make a profit here. So let me dream of the Houston, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton Final Four of fortune. Hedging would be irrelevant – heck, I might even fly FIRST CLASS down to Houston for the actual event if that happens.

However: if the Final Four is Duke, UNC, Arkansas, and Kansas, I will be hitchhiking to Texas and sleeping outside.

FWIW: my most profitable outcomes are Houston, Dayton and Baylor. Least profitable outcomes (relative to the other bets I made) are Alabama, Creighton and Virginia.

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Sample Preview - Baylor Bears

As our traditional previews transition to another medium (new home to be announced shortly), this will serve as our hub for our 2022-23 Preseason Top 40. We’ll be counting down one team per day for the next 39 days, ending with #1 (maybe Mizzou?! It’s not Mizzou).

This page will include the teams and a link to each tweet thread that contains our thoughts on the squad. Only a few more months until tip-off, folks!

40. Miami (FL)

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

39. Saint Louis

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

38. Saint Mary’s

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

37. UAB

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

36. Memphis

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

35. Virginia Tech

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

34. Iowa

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

33. Ohio State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

32. Oklahoma State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

31. Michigan State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

30. Dayton

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

29. Oregon

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

28. Purdue

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

27. Virginia

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

26. Auburn

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

25. Indiana

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

24. Michigan

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

23. Xavier

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

22. Florida State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

21. TCU

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

20. UConn

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

19. Alabama

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

18. Texas Tech

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

17. Villanova

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

16. Illinois

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

15. Florida

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

14. Texas

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

13. San Diego State

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

12. Creighton

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

11. Arizona

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

10. Arkansas

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

9. Tennessee

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

8. UCLA

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

7. Duke

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

6. Kansas

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

5. Kentucky

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

4. North Carolina

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

3. Baylor

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

2. Houston

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

1. Gonzaga

Tweet thread detailing our thoughts HERE

Preseason rankings are about as subjective a measuring stick as possible. At this point, we have no legitimate evidence of how teams will perform in the coming season. Prior year statistics, recruiting rankings, and copious film study are valuable tools, but even then, no one knows the whole picture. As such, groupthink often lurks in the ranking landscape.

Falling prey to groupthink is often simply a defense mechanism. If almost everyone agrees a team should be ranked at/around a certain spot, being the metaphorical fly in the ointment will inevitably draw plenty of flak. And considering we’re still five months from games being played, the upside to zagging is limited – even if you’re right, will people remember (or care)?

In my view, at this point in the 2022 offseason, the biggest groupthink squad is Creighton. The Bluejays were an extremely young team last year who left a positive final impression in everyone’s minds by competing with eventual national champion Kansas for 40 minutes while exceedingly short-handed. As a result, suggesting that Creighton is not an ironclad lock to be a top five squad in 2022-23 has become blasphemous.

I find myself skeptical of that notion. Two huge reasons for that Kansas effort – Ryan Hawkins, arguably the Bluejays’ best and most consistent player, and Alex O’Connell – are gone. Baylor Scheierman is an outstanding replacement, but even with him joining the flock, I am not fully convinced the baby Bluejays immediately mature into a nightly juggernaut. Most of my reservations center around the fact that, by objective measurements, Creighton simply was not that good last season.

Rather than argue opinions on this, though, I wanted to arm myself with some data. For teams in the past like Creighton where the accepted notion is that they will take a significant leap, how often are we correct?

More simply: how good is “the crowd” at predicting major jumps?

To investigate this, I went through the last 15 seasons of AP preseason polls and pulled out all of the preseason top 10 teams. Note: I don’t love the AP poll, but it’s a solid proxy for “consensus opinion.”

For each preseason top 10 squad, I looked at the team’s ending KenPom rank from the previous season to narrow down the “leapers” – the teams everyone seems to think will climb from a middling finish the prior year into the nation’s elite (my cutoff: outside the KenPom top 25). That resulted in a sample of 28 teams over 15 seasons.

I then checked those teams’ final KenPom rank from that season. Essentially, did they become elite like everyone expected?

Note 2: All end of season Pom rankings are pre-tournament.

Don’t shoot the messenger, but those teams rarely became the steamrollers most envisioned. Of the 28 “Leapers” who fit the sample, only eight – just 28.6% - finished in the KenPom top 10. That’s pretty bad!

It’s especially poor when compared to teams with proven track records of success. I broke out the other 122 top 10 teams into two categories: finished previous season in the KenPom top 10, finished previous season from 11-25. Both of those categories proved far more stable in projecting future powerhouses:

It gets better if we expand the results into who at least managed to finish in the top 20, but again, the “off the radar” teams have the worst combined success rate:

Put another way: of the 28 teams expected to take “The Leap”, more of them (9) finished outside of the KenPom top 20 than those that finished inside the top 10 (8).

Maybe these conclusions hit you with the dull thud of an obvious “duh!” And to be VERY clear: I am not disproving that Creighton is a top 10 team — they might be!

Instead, the takeaway here: college basketball prognosticators are pretty bad at identifying which teams will go from “decent” to “elite.” Thus, we should not demand that groupthink dictate how we rank in the preseason — especially for someone like Creighton.   

Before you think I’m just bullying Creighton (I’m not! This is an objective data study!!!), remember that the 2022-23 Bluejays are not the only squad that qualifies. Last year’s national runner-up, North Carolina, was also outside the KenPom top 25 before the NCAA Tournament, meaning the Heels fit the bill.

2023 UNC has been compared ad nauseum to 2022 UCLA: coming off a torrid March run, placed firmly in the top 2-3 of all preseason lists. Those Bruins landed 8th in KenPom before last year’s tournament, so in this context, they were a success story. But it’s also fair to argue they were not the towering terror many assumed they’d be after pushing previously undefeated Gonzaga to the brink at the Final Four.

If only 30% of all teams expected to make this leap succeed, it would be fairly surprising if both UNC and Creighton managed it in the same year. Which one do you trust more? For me, it’s the Tar Heels.

Ok for fun, here’s some other quick hitter nuggets from the sample:

-The most common teams in this archetype are traditional powerhouses that underachieved. Of the 28 teams in the sample, nearly half (13) of them are UConn, Duke, Michigan St., Kentucky, UNC, Texas, or Villanova. It’s far less common for it to be a team like Creighton – traditionally on the outside looking in, but now firmly expected to crash the party.

-Of the eight teams that successfully vaulted up into the top 10, 2022 Kentucky is the only one to go from outside of the top 40 to inside the top five – aka what is universally expected of Creighton. And the ’22 Wildcats added the consensus National Player of the Year (among many other key newcomers).

-The best blueprint for Creighton? That would be 2018 Michigan State. The Spartans drew a ton of hype after freshman-laden group (Cassius Winston, Miles Bridges, Nick Ward, Josh Langford) earned a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to 1-seed Kansas. Sound familiar? That ’18 edition brought back a potential lottery pick in Bridges, added star recruit Jaren Jackson Jr., and ended up 6th in KenPom and a 3-seed in the Big Dance (I guess I’ll mention they got upset by 11-seed Syracuse).

-Some of the recent failures who did not deliver on their hype and should serve as cautionary tales:

• 2016 Maryland (Added Diamond Stone, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Robert Carter to a ballyhooed core of Melo Trimble, Jake Layman, and Jared Nickens)

• 2018 USC (brought back four starters from an 11-seed that made the Sweet 16, soph leaps from Nick Rakocevic and Jonah Matthews)

• 2020 Florida (soph core of Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke, Keyontae Johnson while adding Kerry Blackshear, Scottie Lewis, and Tre Mann)

To tie a bow on this, I want to reiterate: I am not concluding that Creighton cannot be a top 10 team. I personally will rank them around 12th or so, but it is possible that “the crowd” gets this one right. To me, though, placing the Bluejays in the the top 5 assumes an extremely high-end outcome for a team that will still be fairly young and unproven as a unit. As indicated by the data above, the median outcomes for the Bluejays are probably in the 11-20 range.

UNC has some similar concerns. Brady Manek was vital to that team’s success (the on-off numbers are beyond jarring), so maybe we’re all a little too presumptive in the Tar Heels’ own jump.

Remember: preseason rankings are often wrong. Mine, KenPom, the AP Poll, and especially Jeff Goodman will all surely have some laughable placements when we look back. But for such an inexact science, do not fall prey to groupthink — particularly for teams expected to make a significant leap.