3TIER Newsfeed

Top Wind Industry Expert Joins 3TIER

Wed, 15 Feb 2012 10:03:01 +0000

Matt Hendrickson Brings Over 3,900MW of Wind Energy Development Leadership Experience

SEATTLE, Wash.—3TIER®, a global leader in renewable energy risk analysis, today announced that Matthew Hendrickson has joined the company as its senior director of energy assessment.

Mr. Hendrickson has managed world-class renewable energy assessment programs since 2003 and is widely considered a top thought leader in the field. Prior to joining 3TIER, he was director of energy assessment at EDP Renewables, where he managed the energy assessment program that led to financing and development of more than 3,900MW of operating wind capacity and a development pipeline of over 20,000MW. He has extensive experience in meteorological program management, resource assessments, project micro-siting, prospecting, power performance testing, validation research, operational assessments and performance reconciliation.

"Matt is one of the most highly regarded experts in the industry, and he brings a wealth of practical experience that our clients will benefit from immediately," said Dr. Pascal Storck, 3TIER's chief operating officer. "He has a passion for the systematic reduction of uncertainty, which aligns perfectly with 3TIER's commitment to helping our clients reduce and manage risk."

While at EDP Renewables, Mr. Hendrickson worked closely with 3TIER as a client. He was a driving force behind the development of 3TIER's Portfolio Climate Variability Analysis, an automated service that statistically corrects long-term weather model data to on-going observational network data. He also conducted an extensive validation study of 3TIER weather model-derived data and proprietary correction process, called model output statistics (MOS), documenting significant advantages of it over the traditional measure correlate predict (MCP) method using classical ground based reference data. His findings were presented at the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) Wind Assessment Workshop in late 2010.

Mr. Hendrickson will be based in Seattle, supporting 3TIER clients' project feasibility and financial due diligence efforts around the world.

3TIER Releases 2011 Wind Performance Map of Europe

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 11:37:00 +0000

Shows Above Average Winds Across US for the Year

SEATTLE, Wash.—3TIER®, a global leader in renewable energy assessment and forecasting, today released a wind performance map of Europe for the entire year of 2011. The map illustrates that for the duration of the past year, wind speeds were 5-10% above normal in northern Europe and up to 10% below normal in southern Europe.

3TIER's European map shows departures from long-term mean wind speed with above normal areas in red and below normal areas in blue and provides an indication of how wind projects should have performed relative to their long-term production average based on their location. This type of analysis enables financiers and operators to perform portfolio analysis across regions and quickly view the effects of weather anomalies on both existing and proposed investments.

Click to download map as PDF

In 2011 wind speeds across Europe varied considerably from region to region. In the UK, Scandinavia, and around the Baltic Sea wind speeds trended roughly 5-10% above normal. Meanwhile southern Europe experienced wind speeds up to 10% below normal except for a few isolated areas along the Mediterranean coast. The 2011 annual map is based on total variance from average for the full year and does not depict the significant wind speed variability that occurred from month to month and quarter to quarter. This is shown in the 2011 quarterly maps, which illustrate departures from average ranging from -20% to +20%.

2011 began with substantially below normal wind speeds across a majority of Europe due to a high-pressure ridge known as a Greenland High. This structure was hovering over the western Atlantic Ocean late in 2010 and began to shift eastward toward the northern Atlantic in early 2011. This created a blocking effect above the UK, causing severe deformation to the storm track as well as warm temperatures and substantially low wind speeds in the UK, France, and Germany in the second half of the first quarter.

In the second quarter, this ridge started to break down resulting in numerous storms and anomalously high wind speeds over a broad swath of northern Europe. During this period, below normal wind speeds were primarily constrained to Spain, France, northern Italy, and areas of Ukraine and Russia. The third quarter featured milder anomalies, though an area from the UK to the Baltic Sea remained above normal. Finally, the fourth quarter enhanced this pattern, with substantial positive deviations across northern Europe, and negative deviations highlighted in Spain and a broad land area between the Adriatic and Black Seas.

The wind performance maps were created by comparing hourly data for 2011 with hourly wind conditions averaged over the period 1981-2010 from 3TIER's continually updated European meteorological dataset. When comparing 2011 with over 30 years of hourly wind speed data, the most similar year to 2011 in its anomaly pattern is perhaps 1990. That year, however, saw much more dramatic departures from normal than this past year. Final wind speed values for the 2011 analysis were computed using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model run at a 15 km resolution and adjusted using available observations. The underlying datasets for 3TIER's wind performance maps provide clients with operational intelligence for every location within a region and are available in nearly all regions worldwide.

To learn more about 3TIER's wind performance analysis, please click here or contact us at www.3tier.com/europe.

Global Leader in Renewable Energy Assessment and Forecasting Boosting EMEA Presence

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 11:35:44 +0000

3TIER Uses State-of-the-Art Science to Help Financial Stakeholders Mitigate the Risk of Wind and Solar Power Variability

LONDON—3TIER®, a global leader in renewable energy assessment and forecasting, today announced the opening of a new EMEA office in response to increasing demand for the company's services in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The new office, located in the UK, will give wind and solar developers, operators, and financiers direct access to 3TIER's state-of-the-art services to mitigate the risk of wind and solar power variability. Steve Ross, who was previously commercial director–renewables for the MeteoGroup and has over 11 years of experience in the European energy market, has been named managing director and will oversee 3TIER's EMEA operations.

"3TIER enjoys an outstanding reputation in Europe and throughout the EMEA region, and our business there has grown steadily," said Craig Husa, chief executive officer of 3TIER, "The need in these markets for scientifically-based site assessments to secure project funding and more accurate operational forecasting services to manage production is greater than ever. We are fortunate to have someone with Steve's credentials and relationships on-board to broaden the impact of our unique capabilities. Financial stakeholders in wind and solar power generation will now have easier access to the most accurate and objective resource analysis available, enabling them to better mitigate risk and make critical decisions with confidence."

Founded in 1999, 3TIER pioneered combining on-site observational data with numerical weather prediction modeling to forecast the long-term potential and expected variability of wind power production. With experience on over 650 wind projects on six continents, the company's approach typically achieves a higher degree of certainty and provides a more accurate quantification of risk than more traditional methods. 3TIER is also a dominant force in short-term operational forecasting. It services over 40% of North America's installed wind capacity, and its forecasting business is growing rapidly in the UK, India, Australia, and elsewhere. In recent years 3TIER has also augmented its solar assessment and forecasting capabilities. In 2011, it conducted risk analysis studies in the US, India, and Australia that helped secure over $4.6 billion in public and private financing and loan guarantees for the development of utility-scale solar projects. As a result of these advancements, the company regularly appears on lists of America's fastest-growing companies.

"3TIER has driven the science of renewable energy resource analysis further than anyone in the industry," said Steve Ross. "The level of support and commitment across the region to what 3TIER can and has been delivering to the wind and solar markets for many years is extensive. There is a shift in the appreciation of using scientific skills that 3TIER has in abundance, by an industry that relies on more engineering-oriented approaches."

In addition to its scientific expertise, 3TIER is also a leading innovator in data management, delivery, and visualization. The company has built a proprietary information services platform that offers high levels of automation, enabling clients to integrate data seamlessly into their own systems, or use 3TIER's highly refined and customisable web-based dashboard. While these tools facilitate more efficient operations, clients still have considerable access to 3TIER's highly qualified and experienced scientists.

European renewable energy stakeholders who are interested in learning more about 3TIER's approach will have two opportunities at EWEA 2012 in Copenhagen. Michael Grundmeyer, 3TIER's managing director of risk products, will be chairing a panel on "Mitigating Renewable Energy Risk." Dr. Pascal Storck, 3TIER's chief operating officer, will also give a presentation entitled, "The Impact of Real-Time Meteorological Measurement Stations on Regional Short-Term Wind Energy Forecasting Accuracy."

For more information about 3TIER, please visit http://www.3tier.com/europe.

3TIER Releases 2011 Wind Performance Map

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 11:39:57 +0000

Shows Above Average Winds Across US for the Year

SEATTLE, Wash.—3TIER®, a global leader in renewable energy risk analysis, today released a wind performance map for the entire year of 2011. The map illustrates that for the duration of the past year, wind speeds were above their seasonal averages for a majority of the continental United States.

3TIER's 2011 map shows departures from long-term mean wind speeds that range from -20% to +20% and provides an indication of how wind projects should have performed relative to their long-term production average based on their location. This type of analysis enables financiers and owners to perform portfolio analysis across regions and quickly view the effects of weather anomalies on both existing and proposed investments.

Click to download map as PDF

For the year as a whole, the US experienced above average wind speeds, though month-to-month and regional variability were not uniformly above average across the country. The Pacific Northwest and New England saw wind speeds roughly 5% below average for the year, while a broad section of the US from northern Montana to Texas and the mid-Atlantic states enjoyed a strong wind year with wind speeds 5-15% above normal.

The year began with weak La Niña conditions and lackluster wind speeds. However, a stronger La Niña, which occurred later than initially forecasted, combined with a negative Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern led to increased wind speeds throughout the spring. Summer winds were particularly strong in the southern states, where warm and dry conditions continued under a large upper-level ridge that suppressed winds further north. The ridge persisted into September, when the central and eastern US moved back into a more vigorous weather pattern, with frequent frontal passages contributing to higher than normal wind speeds.

By the end of 2011 the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was in a positive phase, associated with lower than normal winds in the western US. The effects of this trend dominated those of the persistent La Niña state in the equatorial Pacific. However, winds were above normal for most of the country east of the Rocky Mountains, except in the northeastern US, where upper-level ridging kept temperatures warm and wind speeds low.

The wind performance map was created by comparing output from 3TIER's continually updated meteorological dataset with wind conditions averaged over the period 1969-2008 from the same dataset. Wind speed values were computed using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model run at a 15 km resolution and adjusted using available observations. The underlying datasets for 3TIER's wind performance maps provide clients with operational intelligence for every location within a region and are available in nearly all regions worldwide.

To learn more about 3TIER's wind performance analysis, please visit http://www.3tier.com/en/package_detail/wind-performance-reconciliation/.

CEO Outlook for 2012

Craig Husa, CEO — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 12:08:10 +0000

I am anticipating 2012 to be an exciting year for both 3TIER and the broader renewable energy industry. Despite the ups and downs of 2011, our belief in renewable energy's promising future is unwavering. Even in this time of financial and political crisis, there lies an opportunity to learn from the past and significantly improve upon the status quo. This is a challenge for the entire industry, and will be our focus at 3TIER for 2012 and beyond.

When I look back on 2011, I see it as a transitional year. A slow global economic recovery resulted in some growth, but came on the back of financial uncertainty and tighter investment capital. With this pattern and high profile events such as the Solyndra bankruptcy, mitigating the risks of investment in renewable energy is more important than ever. As put so succinctly in a recent Wall Street Journal article, "competitive advantage is becoming less about technological leaps and more about choosing the right locations for projects and managing them efficiently."

Helping mitigate the risk of renewable energy development and production is our core service and area of expertise. That is why we have continued to enhance our premium assessment products, designed specifically for financial institutions to help them recognize projects with the greatest chance of profitability. Our successes in this area include reducing the risk of over $4.1 billion in public and private funding for solar projects and developing a working standard for the industry in facilitating sound investment decisions.

We have also invested heavily in our production and international teams, bringing on new faces and expertise. We hired additional staff at our India office to keep up with the ever-increasing demand for our services there, re-established our in-market European office, and developed partnerships in China that have helped us gain traction in an exciting and complex market. Meanwhile, we continue to rank among the fastest-growing companies in the US. In support of this and future growth, we've realigned how our software, science, and product teams work together.

In 2012, we anticipate a greater need for renewable energy risk management in the growing markets of India, China, and Latin America. In India, we are already working closely with the Indian Regulatory Authority as well as wind owners and operators to shape and fulfill forecasting regulations, which will help manage the country's large and growing wind capacity. In China, the budding solar market is drawing a great deal of attention and enthusiasm. Many projects with huge production potential are in the pipeline and developers are looking for ways to best maximize and manage power generation and ROI. On the wind development side, new projects in China are increasingly scrutinized and there is a more sophisticated selection process for approval. In Brazil, 3TIER is involved in shaping the certification process for solar resource assessment. The popular Chilean market is also drawing a lot of international investment and our risk analysis services will be crucial to investors evaluating renewable portfolios.

3TIER has always been a leader in innovation. Through new products, services, and partnerships we offer our clients a more complete picture of project performance and risk. Providing power forecasts for 43 GW of installed capacity and assessing over 800 wind and solar projects on six continents gives us unique insight on weather-related risk and resource variability. In these times of uncertainty, our insights are critical to the future of renewable energy, and we're looking forward to sharing our perspectives at numerous events this year, such as the Bloomberg NEF Summit, Infocast's Wind Finance and Investment Summit, and EWEA 2012, just to name a few.

Happy New Year to all of you and here's to a successful 2012!

Craig Husa
3TIER CEO