814 Options

PCLN

2012-11-20T18:26:00.002-08:00

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FCX vs. SCCO

2012-11-15T15:42:00.001-08:00

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From a fundamental persepective, Expansion costs and higher energy prices have led to a lower cash flow for FCX. On 7/30 they reported a neg cash flow of about 445M. On the balance sheet, that is the lowest level in 2 years they have made from operations. Southern Copper has a profit margin of 29% and operating margin of 53%, Freeport's profit margin is 17% and operating margin is 32%, making SCCO more likely to survive if copper prices should happen to depreciate any more than they have since 2011. Freeport also has its hand in the gold industry, so overall, if gold and copper prices fall, so will Freeport.
However, Freeports debt is sustainable and with a p/e ratio of 12.6, compared to Southern Coppers 15.2, prices are attractive in this area. Both are extremely attractive when compared to other miners, the average p/e for the metals and mining industry is 25.3.

Overall, I like FCX at 41 for a longer term hold. I like SCCO over today's (11/15) highs for a trade only. My personal opinion is to stay ALL CASH until the fiscal cliff is dealt with though. Until that happens, all markets (metals, equities, bonds) will probably remain choppy for the most part.

GOLD -- $GOLD $AUY $GG $RGLD

2012-10-31T17:23:00.005-07:00

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Yamana is my favorite gold play right now. Beautiful breakout today, MACD crossing and hist should be positive soon. Had a nice consolidation period of about a month and now the moving averages and stock is moving higher. Excellent volume to couple with this move, and this is a multi year breakout.

Rangold is also looking decent. Nice bull flag forming, but I'd like to see this one above the moving averages and break out of this channel before pulling the trigger. MACD also looking like it should cross over soon.

Goldcorp is a long time favorite of mine. I've been watching the flag for about 2 weeks now, waiting for a long entry. However, I did not like that gap today. I would have much prefered a gap down or a flat open and a fade up to the current price to intiate a long position. Still on watch.

Royal Gold is probably my least favorite out of the gold plays. A possible HnS could form if it cant take out the highs, and they also report earnings tomorrow. If it breaks below the trendline, 80 (previous breakout) and 75 (200MA) would be good spots to take a look for an entry.

$ACI $ANR $JRCC $WLT #COAL

2012-10-17T18:54:00.004-07:00

What the hell is not to like about coal right now? We've been long WLT November 35 calls from 1.65. As stated, our first price target was 39, which got hit at the eod today. Moving average crossovers, MACD crossovers, RSI heading higher....Coal Stocks are heading HIGHER, and any dips should be bought....

$BIDU

2012-10-10T08:25:00.003-07:00

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Notice MACD when 10ma crosses below 20ma...BIDU may go a little higher short term, but I think this is another shortable pop....

$AAPL

2012-10-10T08:15:00.004-07:00

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Said last night that hammers and dojis usually lead to higher prices for Apple. So far, the plan is working. I still think it needs to get up and test the 10ma , MACD signal needs to cross. On a positive note, the RSI is starting to show some life. Once AAPL crosses and closes above the 10ma, then I'll establish a longer term swing position. Until then my game plan is to scalp intraday via weeklies.

$LULU

2012-10-10T06:02:00.001-07:00

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Forming a cup and handle...set up might not be ready just yet. Waiting on RSI and MACD to turn up. Next move higher should take out 81.09, making this at least a 9 point gainer. No position yet, but I have a very close eye on it...besides, who doesn't like yoga pants?

WLT - update

2012-10-09T16:13:00.001-07:00

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Updated chart on WLT. Original here (http://814options.blogspot.com/2012/10/click-chart-to-enlarge-coal-stocks-got.html). Still holding Nov 35 calls from 1.65, currently 3.10 for a gain of about 88%. If and when WLT clears 39 (next res), I will add to that position...

$AAPL - dont fight it

2012-10-08T08:17:00.004-07:00

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Priceline.com

2012-10-07T08:55:00.002-07:00

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Priceline.com starts to get interesting around 650. 650 would confirm the break out of this longer term bull flag, and would be above the highs from 9/18. You could start to position yourself for a true breakout of this range above Friday's hod of 643.88. For options traders, the spreads on PCLN are usually pretty wide, so play accordingly. I would not short/buy puts until the price breaks below 611.44 (lod 10/2). If it breaks below 611.44, chances are the down trend continues and a break out of the flag will need more time.

$WLT

2012-10-04T15:43:00.000-07:00

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Coal stocks got a much needed bump today after being beat down for the better part of the year. Walter Energy caught my eye today. Main reason, it reminded me of the Goldcorp chart, which you can view here (http://814options.blogspot.com/2012/08/gg-goldcorp.html) before it put in a 13/14 point run. It sas a nice inverse h&s pattern coupled with a rising MACD and RSI. We did take a position today in the November 35 calls. PTs are 39 and 45.

$AAPL

2012-09-26T19:04:00.001-07:00

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Just my .02: Apple put in a spinning top today, gapping down and almost making a r/g move later in the day, finishing -8.36. The last 5 times (4/24, 5/18, 6/28, 7/26, 9/11) it has led to higher prices and nice swing trade entries. During those times, Apple has had an avg RSI of 41.5. Today it closed with an RSI reading of 46.1. Based on this, I would say the downside here is limited. For confirmation, I'd like to see it trade above 672.69 (todays high) and hold for a long side entry. Of course, if it takes out today's lows, all bets are off...

$GC_F

2012-09-23T18:36:00.001-07:00

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Gold futures pulling back a bit tonight, bouncing off 10ma. Remains in bull flag. 1749.5 (high 9/12) could be a nice pick up.

9/14 Watchlist -- $AAPL $BIDU $GOOG

2012-09-13T17:34:00.000-07:00

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$WMT

2012-09-06T07:14:00.003-07:00

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$GOOG - breakout

2012-09-06T07:08:00.000-07:00

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$OSIS

2012-09-02T05:57:00.001-07:00

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OSIS on Stocktwits

Fundamentals

$NFLX

2012-08-30T18:10:00.001-07:00

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Other traders ideas about NFLX -- Stocktwits

Other traders ideas about NFLX -- thelion.com

Netflix gave the original buy signal over 60 (red t/l) , after riding above the 9sma for 4 days. Failed to get into the earnings gap (green t/l) and put in a nasty candle today after trading below its 9sma for 4 days. NFLX is back at the 60 level, below 60 and I think this gets back to 53 (blue t/l).

$PCLN

2012-08-29T19:15:00.001-07:00

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$LNKD

2012-08-28T18:53:00.000-07:00

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$BIDU

2012-08-22T18:00:00.002-07:00

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$NFLX

2012-08-22T16:47:00.004-07:00

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$BIDU

2012-08-21T18:39:00.004-07:00

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ROSE

2012-08-20T19:16:00.002-07:00

Currently holding $ROSE October $45 calls. Looking at the daily chart, this stock is in an uptrend since 6/28 bottom. It has been hitting resistance at the 200 day for the past 8 trading sessions. Once it breaks resistance around $45.36 with more volume we should continue to see higher prices. The volume in the last few trading days has been way below average. This could be a sign that the selling has been slowing. My short term price target is $47. The oil sector has been a laggard lately and should catch a bid soon.

$GLD

2012-08-19T16:36:00.001-07:00

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