AAEA Blog

Members in the News: May 4, 2026

2026-05-04T13:18:04.517-05:00

David Ortega, Michigan State University
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea,Cornell University
Richard Volpe, California Polytechnic State University

“Tariffs, War, and Now a Historic Drought Have Converged into a ‘Perfect Storm’ for U.S. Farmers and Food Prices”

By: Yahoo! Finance – April 21, 2026

“What’s unique about the current moment is that you have this perfect storm of factors.”

“It’s unusually dry in various parts of the country. It’s been hitting hard in the Central Plains and in parts of the South, all along the Cotton Belt.”

“What I think we’re going to see is a one-two punch of higher energy prices and higher fertilizer costs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Yahoo! Finance

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“High Urea Prices Likely to Linger”

By: Brownfield Ag News Online – April 23, 2026

“Even in the most optimistic scenario, we are still seeing $600 to $700 well through the fall period. Through 2027 we see prices along the $500 to $600 range. It was about $400 to $500 before the crisis.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield Ag News Online

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“Can a Participation Deficit Explain India’s Low Per Capita Income?”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 29, 2026

“India presents a striking development paradox: despite sustaining GDP growth of 6-7% annually for three decades, its per capita income remains among the lowest of major economies—approximately $2,400, compared with China’s $12,500. New research argues that conventional explanations—population size, inequality, or sectoral composition—are insufficient.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Michael Langemeier, Purdue University
Joana Colussi, Purdue University

“Rising Costs Force Farmers to Rebuild Budgets in Real Time”

By: RFD TV – April 24, 2026

“While overall inflation has cooled from highs seen in recent years, the same can’t be said for input costs. Increases in farm input costs do not always align with inflation. Worse, farm cost increases tend to be more unpredictable and impact farmers more quickly than consumer inflation.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: RFD TV

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University
Bernhard Dalheimer, Purdue University
David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Why the Iran War Might Not Raise Your Grocery Bill Until Next Year”

By: Yahoo! Finance – April 26, 2026

“If the conflict persists and starts to affect the prices that farmers pay for the ‘27 crop, then you start to see real food price effects in ‘27,”

“Where could that shock be seen first? It’s in dairy where the transportation cost share is highest, and we need to cool the dairy all the way through.”

“Higher diesel prices — which were down slightly this week from earlier this month, averaging about $5.40 per gallon — are worth watching for their impacts on food prices.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Yahoo! Finance

Andrew Van Leuven, University of Vermont

“Vermont’s Love-Hate Relationship With Fast Food”

By: Vermont Public – April 23, 2026

“We may overstate our value for mom and pop, while still being huge, maybe, closeted fans of, you know, McNuggets and Crunchwrap Supremes. I still think people do want these, we could say, we can call them amenities, right, within a reasonable distance.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Vermont Public

David Ortega, Michigan State University

"Demand Destruction: How the Iran War Could Rattle or Break the US Economy"

By: CNN - April 30, 2026

“It can take the better part of six months, (or) even longer, to feel the full impacts of this shock reflected in food prices."

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNN

Jeffrey Dorfman, North Carolina State University

“Can Farmers Get Tariff Money Back? New Portal Raises Questions”

By: Farm Progress – April 29, 2026

“Farmers will not be applying for refunds, as that will be done by whoever directly paid the tariff to the federal government. It is possible that some companies will issue refunds to customers on a “pass-through basis,” but some are skeptical that this will happen. We also may see implicit refunds to farmers through lower prices on future purchases, as importing firms try to keep good customers happy and loyal.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Farm Progress

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University

“‘Drop Like a Rock’: Trump Says Gas Prices Will Plummet When Iran War Ends, Despite Current Climate”

By: 14 News – April 30, 2026

“There is typically a 3- to 6-month lag between an energy price shock and an increase in retail food prices. The lag can be up to a year for packaged foods with a longer shelf life.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: 14 News

Peter Orazem, Iowa State University
Aakansha Jain, Iowa State University

“Iowa State College Graduates Left For Bigger Cities, But They're Returning to Iowa”

By: Axios – April 21, 2026

“The reasons behind the returns aren't clear. One theory is that Iowans are returning to raise families here because of cheaper housing, decent schools and proximity to relatives.”

“Rural areas aren't seeing those returns, potentially reflecting limited job opportunities, especially outside agriculture, and fewer services such as health care and retirement options.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Axios

Stephen Koontz, Colorado State University

“Grain Markets Challenge Farmers the Rest of 2026”

By: High Plains Journal – May 1, 2026

“The strong exports have been very good—but world supplies of course grains are tight compared to the United States, so if you want corn then you are coming here. The U.S. price has been the lowest in the world. The good news is that we are on the way to export our enormous crop.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: High Plains Journal

Hunter Biram, University of Arkansas

“Ag, Food Economics Are Hard to Simplify”

By: Magnolia Reporter – May 3, 2026

“Consumers who see parallels between crude oil and gas prices might expect the same for food, but what seems like a straightforward relationship between prices at the farm and prices at the grocery store is anything but simple. Making a direct connection between the two “is extremely difficult.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Magnolia Reporter

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Members in the News: April 27, 2026

2026-04-27T15:02:00.003-05:00

Zach Rutledge, Michigan State University

“Immigration Crackdowns Spur Fears of Labor Shortages for Farmers”

By: SAN – April 19, 2026

“Immigrants play a very large role in U.S. agriculture. Around 70% of agricultural workers in the U.S. are from different countries. Farmers in Washington state have reported seeing an increase in their workers being detained in recent weeks, according to Save Family Farming.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: SAN

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“New Research Shows Rising Class, Falling Race Gaps in Economic Mobility”

By: Rochester Beacon – April 21, 2026

“Although these efforts are laudable, it is instructive to comprehend the striking changes one sees in intergenerational economic mobility in the United States by both race and class over a relatively short period.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Rochester Beacon

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Tariffs, War, And Now a Historic Drought Have Converged into a ‘Perfect Storm’ for U.S. Farmers and Food Prices”

By: Fortune – April 21, 2026

“What I think we’re going to see is a one-two punch of higher energy prices and higher fertilizer costs. We’re feeling energy now, then as we get into late summer and into the fall, that’s where we’re really going to start seeing the impact of the higher fertilizer costs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Fortune

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“No Matter How You Slice it, a Tomato is Getting Way More Expensive”

By: Fortune – April 21, 2026

“It’s really this perfect storm of factors that are impacting tomato prices. Last summer the U.S. put a 17% tax on Mexican tomatoes. The timing of that tax coincided with a terrible growing season in the U.S. A cold snap in Florida, where most domestic fresh tomatoes are farmed, caused $160 million in damage.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Fortune

Ian Sheldon, The Ohio State University

“What Does Iran Conflict Mean Beyond Higher Oil Prices”
By: Morning AgClips - March10, 2026
“U.S.-China Trade Uncertainty”
By: Brownfield Ag News - March 23, 2026
“Iran Tensions Drive Up Fertilizer Prices”
By: Spectrum News, April 6, 2026
“Rising Energy Prices Are Impacting Ohio Farmers, OSU Economists Say”
By: WTOL 11 - April 8, 2026
“Global Conflict And Trade Shifts Pressuring U.S. Ag Exports”
By: Brownfield - April 17, 2026

Margaret Jodlowski, The Ohio State University

“Survey Measures Job Satisfaction For H-2A Farm Workers in Ohio”

By: Lancaster Farming - April 20, 2026

“Agricultural workers in the H-2A visa program who also farm in their home countries tend to have positive feelings about their work in the United States."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Lancaster Farming

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University

“BBQ Lovers Beware: Middle East Conflict Might Disrupt Your Summer Plans This Year”

By: FOX News – April 18, 2026

“The impact of ongoing challenges in the Middle East on energy prices impacts nearly every facet of the U.S. economy and beef-cattle are not immune.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: FOX News

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

“Farm Economy 2026 Outlook: Crop Losses Near $35 Billion and Beef Remains the Lone Bright Spot Heading into the New Year”

By: Agro Informicon – April 18, 2026

“The deeper concern is structural: whether the 2025 trade war has produced the same type of permanent market share shift to South America — principally Brazil — that followed the first Trump administration’s trade war in 2017-2018. Brazil is now the world’s dominant soybean producer, and Chinese buyers have demonstrated their ability and willingness to source from South America during periods of political tension with the United States.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Agro Informicon

Dawn Thilmany, Colorado State University

“This Tamale Act Could Throw Open the Door For More Home Kitchen Entrepreneurs in Colorado”

By: CPR News –April 15, 2026

“For some subset of these businesses, they do become employers. They do grow and become economically viable businesses… No matter what someone's trying to do out of their home, it is very hard for people to accelerate at the level they want to until they're in one of these more sophisticated facilities where you can really have a workflow.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CPR News

Sean Cash, Tufts University

“Study Shows FDA ‘Healthy’ Label Boosts Demand for Healthier Snacks”

By: Newsweek – April 22, 2026

“Our findings demonstrate that labels act as signals for consumers, and policy can shape how well those signals work. When labels are viewed as credible, such as when they have the endorsement of a government agency, they are more likely to influence eating patterns and purchasing habits.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Newsweek

Karen DeLong, University of Tennessee

“Tennessee Researchers Find Buyers Pay More for Local Wine Labels”

By: Vinetur – April 21, 2026

“Overall, preliminary findings show that quality certification, AVAs and alcohol content definitely influence consumers’ valuation of wines. Our research shows that the new QAP logo and sourcing grapes from a Tennessee AVA will help increase consumer willingness to pay for Tennessee wines.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Vinetur

Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University

“As Iran Crisis Drags on, Fears of Global Food Catastrophe Grow”

By: Aljazeera – April 21, 2026

“Recent price moves should be interpreted with caution, describing them as a “mixed signal, not a clear reason for reassurance. Input shocks often transmit with a lag. Inventories, pre-purchased fertiliser, delayed pass-through, and uncertainty about duration can all temporarily mute the effect.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Aljazeera

Member Blog: David Zilberman

2026-04-27T07:20:00.005-05:00

Bruce McCarl: An Unsung Hero of Climate Change Economics

By David ZILBERMAN / April 26, 2026

Around 1985, a large, imposing, energetic man walked into my office and began telling me about his research on technology adoption and farm-system choices. He introduced himself as Bruce McCarl from Oregon State. I had just finished a paper on adoption, and I was embarrassed that I had ignored his work. So I read some of his papers, and they were impressive, coming from a different intellectual tradition. I had been trained in mainstream microeconomics: elegant models, propositions, and empirically estimable questions. McCarl came from a different world. He earned a Ph.D. in operations research from Penn State, and his work had a much more action-oriented approach.

He emphasized solving problems: identifying the key elements, recognizing the major practical constraints, and developing techniques that could guide decisions. His models recognized markets and other factors central to standard economics, but they were part of a broader system rather than the sole focus. McCarl’s work showed me a different and very effective way to understand and solve agricultural problems. He also developed important computer programs that could address some of the biggest practical problems we were facing.

Bruce’s research covered many topics. He became a leading scholar of water economics in Texas, including the management of the Edwards Aquifer. He studied the value of economic models for El Niño and climate change, and he built models of agricultural-sector and forestry activities. In each of these models, the operational quality was amazing and the economic logic flawless. Yet this was not the kind of work that appeared every day in mainstream economics journals. I was glad that agricultural economics journals provided a home for this literature. To me, it helped make agricultural economics unique.

In the 1990s, when Clinton was president, I was involved in the administration’s work on climate change. I worked with a White House group and an EPA group that sought to develop a U.S. climate policy and persuade Congress to support the Kyoto Protocol. We also began organizing conferences on climate change. I realized that one person was providing a unique and important quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture: Bruce McCarl. He was able to estimate how technologies such as low-till and no-till farming, nutrient management, and land-use changes would affect carbon sequestration. He analyzed how agriculture might adapt to mitigation policies and to climate change itself; how climate change would affect crop mix, planting locations, livestock management, and forestry; and how different mitigation strategies might work under alternative climate scenarios.

This work was detailed, practical, and directly relevant to policymaking. Policymakers needed answers to questions about land use, agricultural production, natural resources, and the economic consequences of alternative climate policies. Very few people could provide those answers with the level of detail and credibility that McCarl could. It was remarkable to me that one scholar could put all these pieces together.

In 2020, Rudy Naiga, the department chair at Texas A&M, offered me a Hagler Scholar appointment in the department. That meant I would come to Texas A&M for roughly 30 to 40 days each year to work with faculty, engage with students, and contribute to research. I was excited by the opportunity — not only because it came with good remuneration, but because I was genuinely intrigued by McCarl and his distinctive style of work.

I discovered that Bruce had built an extraordinary research group. He treats his students like family, while training them to tackle difficult practical problems with rigor, creativity, and a deep sense of purpose. His lab included talented people from all over the world who were skilled in methods that were rare in the profession. Together, they created a comprehensive approach to predicting the impacts of climate change and other natural-resource policies. No wonder that Bruce is one of the Climate change Nobel Lauraete. He treated his students like family, while training them to tackle difficult practical problems with rigor, creativity, and a deep sense of purpose.

I found Bruce and his wife Lynn to be extremely warm and friendly. We went to multiple dinners together with other faculty members and to basketball games. He showed me the different facets of College Station and was very generous with his time and attention. He made me feel at home there.

With Bruce and Rudy’s guidance, I got to understand the difference between Berkeley and Texas A&M. Berkeley is able to recruit many more American graduate students, and emphasizes publishing in top journals and recognizition by mainstream economics. In A&M, most of the Ph.D.s are international, from diverse countries like Nepal, Iran, Nigeria, etc., and the emphasis is to solve pratical agricultural economic problems. Some of them are very bright and capable, but on average, lack the polish that Berkeley students have. Many of the students will go back to their countries and work at local universities. McCarl was amazing in his ability to continue wokring with his international students and help them to address their own challenges. Their papers were published in diverse agricultural and scientific journals (varying from Nature to Agronomy and Water, field journals). The papers were numerical and future-oriented. They relied on econmetrics but tried to develop trends and projections without overemphasis on rigorous causality tests. But they were very useful and relevant, very good in utilizing multiple data sources and addressing diverse problems in a practical way. Bruce is proud in being a problem solver in the agricultural resource and economics field, not an economist that happens to work on agriculture. In this regard, I find him as a kindred spirit.

I missed Bruce’s retirement party last week, but I felt that I was there in spirit, and I look forward to continuing to collaborate with him and to seeing him and Lynn when I am in College Station. Knowing Bruce helped me appreciate his genius, and the fact that outstanding scholars may appear in different shapes and with different emphases. By their diversity, they make our research much more relevant and useful. I salute Bruce and Lynn, and I look forward to seeing them as they enter this next stage of their lives.

Members in the News: April 20, 2026

2026-04-20T10:22:00.001-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“How Extreme Heat Deepens Rural Undernutrition”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 12, 2026

“Extreme heat during the agricultural growing season in rural India can have several deleterious effects. It can reduce crop yields. When temperatures rise significantly, agricultural productivity declines, lowering the quantity of food that farm households can consume from their own production.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University
David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Grocery Inflation Slowed in March, But That Doesn't Mean Your Cart is Getting Cheaper”

By: Marketplace – April 13, 2026

“There’s little question that tomatoes is sort of a case study in the ongoing impact of the current administration's tariffs,”

“The canary in the coal mine here are really the perishable food products. They are the least processed, require the most travel, and are time sensitive.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Marketplace

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Why BLTs and Salad Just Got More Expensive — Tariffs, War Send Tomato Prices Soaring”

By: CNBC – April 15, 2026

“I do expect there’s more pain on the horizon for tomato prices. While the White House has exempted many agricultural products from tariffs, tomatoes are among the few major specialty crops imported from Mexico that haven’t received an exemption.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNBC

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Beef, that all-American food, is getting harder for Americans to afford”
By: CBS News – April 13, 2026
“The Strait of Hormuz Blockade is Causing a Slow-Moving Food Crisis”
By: The Verge – April 13, 2026
“Your Grocery Bill Could Get Even More Expensive As Fuel Prices Climb”
By: Harvest Public Media – April 13, 2026

Christopher Wolf, Cornell University

“Butterfat Production and Protein Demand Fuel US Cheese”

By: Lancaster Farming – April 11, 2026

“Global sales have made space for more production to come online and new U.S. cheeses to be developed while whey has its own markets and demand, a big step up from its former secondary role.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Lancaster Farming

Seth Meyer, University of Missouri

“Farmers Grow Wary of USDA as Survey Response Rates Plummet - Columbia Today”

By: National Today – April 10, 2026

“Recent USDA surveys have seen response rates plummet to historic lows. This trend has emerged as farmers grapple with a prolonged downturn in the agricultural economy, potentially fueling distrust in the government agency tasked with supporting their interests.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: National Today

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University

“Rising Oil Prices Expose How Vulnerable US Households Remain to Inflation”

By: CNN – April 12, 2026

“For lower-income households, the delayed effects may be the hardest part. We have households in our country where the percentage of income spent on food is closer to 50%,… And when you add on fuel for heating your home or for transportation for you getting to work, you’re now talking about a sizable percentage of people’s income that’s really not adjustable.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNN

Amelia Finaret, Allegheny College

“New USDA Food Pyramid Could Add $1,000 to Your Grocery Bill”

By: USA Today - April 10, 2026

"While animal-sourced foods can provide complete proteins, those sources of nutrition can also be found in cheaper options such as plant-based foods. So instead of buying beef, which is one of the most expensive forms of protein that you can get right now, combining rice and beans or combining any kind of grain with any kind of lentil is another way to get a complete protein."

(Continued...)
Read more on: USA Today

Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Why BLTs and Salad Just Got More Expensive — Tariffs, War Send Tomato Prices Soaring”

By: CNBC – April 15, 2026

“Tariffs levied on imports of Mexican tomatoes appear to be the primary factor underpinning the recent runup in price.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNBC

Chad Fiechter, Purdue University

“The Precision Ag Paradox: Why More Tech Doesn’t Always Mean More Profit”

By: Hoosier Ag Today – April 13, 2026

“On average, most precision ag bundles are not associated with improved efficiency. Of the 17 different combinations we examined, only two showed statistically meaningful gains: automated guidance on its own, and the combination of yield monitors with grid soil sampling.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Hoosier Ag Today

Paul Mitchell, University of Wisconsin-Madison

“Already Under Financial Pressure, Farmers Squeezed Further By Tariffs and Iran War”

By: PBS – April, 2026

"They're very concerned about negative margins driven by low prices and high cost. There's just a liquidity cash crunch for a lot of them and they're just trying to figure out how to deal with everything."

(Continued...)
Read more on: PBS

Allen Featherstone, Kansas State University

“Number of Farm Lenders Shrinks as Loan Volume Increases”

By: Capital Press – April 13, 2026

“A declining number of banks that lend bigger amounts of money points to consolidation, rather than institutions getting out of the agricultural industry altogether.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Capital Press

Wendong Zhang, Cornell University

“Trump's Tariffs Dealt an Economic Blow to All 50 States, Study Finds”

By: Fortune – April 15, 2026

“The United States doesn’t have one agricultural trade exposure—it has 50 different ones… When processors face higher input costs, they pass it along. Eventually, the consumer in a New York grocery store is paying more for something that traces back to a trade dispute in Washington—even if New York itself exports very little.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Fortune

Dawn Thilmany, Colorado State University

“Colorado’s small rural districts face big financial strains, but anchor communities and have outsized outcomes”

By: CPR News – April 15, 2026

“Schools and health care are the two most critical factors in a small town’s ability to sustain itself. They’re also a primary economic anchor, providing middle-income jobs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CPR News

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

"Strait Delays Could Keep Global Fertilizer Flows in Limbo for Months"
By: Red River Farm Network - April 17, 2026
"Fertilizer Prices to Stay Elevated Through 2027 Even If Strait of Hormuz Reopens, Says Analyst"
By: Brownfield - April 10, 2026
"Iran Crisis Adds Cost Pressure, Not a Food Shock"
By: Miller Magazine - April 13, 2026
Will the Iran crisis lead to another round of food price spikes?
By: CGIAR - April 7, 2026

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Members in the News: April 13, 2026

2026-04-13T13:15:12.954-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“India’s Farm Productivity Puzzle Lies in Distorted Land Markets”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 8, 2026

“It is now well known that agricultural productivity in India is very low. Despite overall economic progress, agricultural productivity in India remains extremely low compared to developed countries, with output per worker only a small fraction of that in the United States.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

William Burke, Michigan State University

“Rising Oil Prices Threaten Global Food Security”

By: KTVU – April 6, 2026

“Global food costs keep climbing, and farmers are feeling the squeeze. The U.N.’s FAO reports another jump in prices, while the U.S. exports phosphate fertilizers even as domestic shortages hit spring planting. William Burke, an agricultural economist, at The University of Maryland Eastern Shore, gives insight.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: KTVU

Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Why Is 95 Percent of the World’s Bourbon Made in Kentucky?”
By: Freakonomics – April 3, 2026
“U.S. Farmers Face ‘New Era of Trade Deficits’ as Global Markets Shift”
By: Farm Progress – April 2, 2026

Seungki Lee, The Ohio State University

“The Iran War is Changing How Millions of People Cook — And What They Eat”

By: Grist – April 6, 2026

“Because of the economic strain created by the conflict, nation-level progress toward the U.N.’s sustainable development targets, for example, are more likely to see at least a short-term regression on the aim to transition billions of households away from using coal, kerosene, or solid biomass as primary cooking fuels.”

(Continued...)
Read more on:Grist

Charles Martinez, University of Tennessee

“Should Market Data Add a Beef x Dairy Category?”

By: Feedstuffs – February 24, 2026

“Beef on dairy has always been available as a backup strategy for dairy producers to maintain operations during slumps of dairy prices. But the current landscape has producers using artificial insemination to make genetic-based decisions for dairy production while also intentionally using semen from beef bulls to produce calves to market as beef.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Feedstuffs

Cesar Escalante, University of Georgia

“Expanding H-2A Farmworker Program Could Increase Health, Safety Risks”

By: PNS – April 8, 2026

“Native-born workers will only work for one day or half a day, and then they quit… They cannot tolerate the working conditions.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: PNS

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Grocery Prices Rise, But These Staples Are Getting Cheaper”

By: USA Today - April 8, 2026

“There have been several "shocks" that have affected the agricultural and food industry, such as bird flu devastating the egg markets, climate-driven droughts hammering coffee and fresh produce production and tariffs layering additional costs onto import-heavy categories. These shocks hit products in different ways, which is why you get such a mixed picture when you look item by item. But the net result is that families are still paying more at the register."

(Continued...)
Read more on: USA Today

Christopher Wolf, Cornell University

“‘The Good Old Days Are Gone’: How Will US Prices Stand As War in Iran Surges On?”

By: The Guardian – April 4, 2026

“Along with oil prices, diesel and fertilizer prices are also rising, which are critical to farming. That makes both the cost of growing crops and raising livestock more expensive.”

(Continued...)
Read more on:The Guardian

Jeffrey Dorfman, North Carolina State University

“Diesel and Fertilizer Cost Spikes Put Squeeze on NC Corn Farmers”

By: Carolina Public Press – April 6, 2026

“Higher oil and fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift some acres away from corn. Soybeans, which require less fertilizer and are more forgiving when it comes to drought, are a logical replacement. In general, these higher prices mean a 3-5 percent increase in production costs for most crops, which is very unwelcome after production costs have already risen about 65 percent in the last five years.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Carolina Public Press

Joshua Maples, Mississippi State University

“Rising Fuel And Fertilizer Costs Are Hitting U.S. Producers Differently, With Smaller Operations Feeling the Squeeze”

By: Brownfield – April 9, 2026

“Larger producers likely purchased fuel and fertilizer at the end of 2025. However, I would say a lot of smaller producers don’t do that. And so this is a spot here where we may see a bit of differences between size of operation and the relative impact it has on their operation.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

"Why Tomato Prices Are Rising and Driving Grocery Inflation"

By: Axios - April 10, 2026

"The U.S. imports a large share of its tomatoes, and tariffs are being passed through fairly cleanly. There are few players in the supply chain with the capacity to absorb losses. While prices typically rise this time of year, the current spike is larger than usual."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Axios

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Members in the News: April 6, 2026

2026-04-06T14:06:07.972-05:00

Ricky Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Unilever's Sale to McCormick is About More Than Just Mayo”

By: Marketplace – March 31, 2026

“Folks have been increasingly moving towards more prepared and ready-to-eat foods, the perimeter of the supermarket… With especially younger Americans, we've seen brand loyalty eroded in a big way.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Marketplace

Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University

“Annual ISU Farmland Survey Predicts Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Growth”
By: Decorah Leader – January 7, 2026
“Northwest Iowa Continues to Lead State in Farmland Values”
By: KTIV News 4 – January 21, 2026

Miguel Gomez, Cornell University

“The Hidden Cost of Viral Food Trends”

By: Bloomberg – March 29, 2026

“Social media has turned niche foods into global sensations at unprecedented speed, sending demand for products like matcha, ube, acai and Dubai chocolate far beyond their traditional markets… Influencers can create demand spikes that supply chains struggle to meet, exposing farmers and producers to volatility and quality risks. In matcha, the surge has been especially intense.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Bloomberg

Kenneth Burdine, University of Kentucky

“Declines in U.S. Corn Acres Could Pressure Feed Prices and Create Headwinds for the Livestock Sector”

By: Brownfield – March 30, 2026

“Tighter margins were already pointing to increased soybean acres. The recent run up in fertilizer prices have changed this even more. The story to me is that we’re going to see a decrease in corn acres. We’re going to see it shift other crops. It’s a question of how significant that decrease is, and I think it’ll be relatively significant.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

“As Prices Soar, EPA Greenlights Higher Ethanol Blends in Gasoline”

By: Inside Climate News – March 25, 2026

“I expect relatively slow growth in the U.S. ethanol blend rate from where it is now, about 10.5 percent. But regardless of what the path is, I do think it will be upward, and it’s important to remember that each 10th that the ethanol blend rate increases, that raises domestic U.S. ethanol demand by about 130 million gallons. So even small improvements in the blend rate do matter.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Inside Climate News

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise”

By: New York Times – March 31, 2026

“We’ve been talking about the price of food for the past five years. Grocery store prices are nearly 30 percent more than they were before the Covid-19 pandemic. Particularly for lower-income households, food is a necessity, and they will protect their food budgets, which means they will cut down on other things like eating out.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: New York Times

Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University
Yasin Yildirim, North Dakota State University

“U.S.-China Trade Conflict Harming California Ag”

By: Farm Progress – April 2, 2026

“In aggregate the top 13 California agricultural commodities exported to China fell from an average total annual value of around $1.55 billion in 2024 to $554 million in 2025 – a 64% decline in a single year.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Farm Progress or Imperial Valley Press, ivpressonline.com, News Break, FreshPlaza

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“‘Could Not Come At a Worse Time’: U.S. Farmers Hit Hard By Economic Fallout of Iran War”

By: MS Now – March 27, 2026

“Before the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the global situation of fertilizer was already extremely tight. So this happened in a very, very bad time. Even if the strait were to open tomorrow, Arita said, fertilizer prices won’t soon recover from the lasting impacts of Gulf suppliers halting production amid the war.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: MS Now or Farms.com

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“How Marriage Markets Drive India's Vanishing Girls Problem”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 3, 2026

“India’s gender imbalance is neither new nor subtle. Skewed sex ratios continue to favour boys, bringing with them consequences that extend beyond demography: a marriage market squeeze, rising trafficking risks, and deeper social strain.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Laura Kalambokidis, University of Minnesota

“Minnesota’s Job Engine Stalled in January”

By: MPR News – April 2, 2026

“We've taken for granted for a while that Minnesota's unemployment rate tends to be below the U.S. unemployment rate. Seeing that change for this one data point, which is January of this year, is an unwelcome development but something that could change. It could reverse.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: MPR News

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Members in the News: March 30, 2026

2026-03-30T14:13:00.001-05:00

Ricky Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Iran Roils Loyal GOP Voters”

By: Politico – March 23, 2026

“The waiver could have an effect on the margins but isn’t “a solution to the structural problems caused by the war. The U.S. already makes most of the fertilizer it uses, so the pain points for this year’s season are mostly affecting specific fertilizers we import. The Jones Act might provide a little relief there, but it wouldn’t really address any of the major inflationary concerns I have about the war.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Politico

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“'It is not too late to turn this around': Minnesota farmers demand trade fix as $50 billion in losses push US agriculture toward 'widespread collapse”

By: MSN Money – March 16, 2026

“Those include the costs for fertilizers, costs for chemicals, for machinery products, for machinery inputs that have run up in inflation over the past few years.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: MSN Money

Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University

“UC ANR: U.S.-China Trade Conflict Harms California Farming Communities as New Study Finds a 64% Drop in Value of California Agricultural Exports in 2025”

By: News Break – March 19, 2026

"the top 13 California agricultural commodities exported to China fell from an average total annual value of around $1.55 billion in 2024 to $554 million in 2025 – a 64% decline in a single year."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Sierra Sun Times or Europe Says

Alexis Villacis, The Ohio State University

“Chocolate Candy Becoming A Bitter Pill To Swallow Due To Worldwide Cocoa Shortage”

By: The Main Wire – March 12, 2026

“Chocolate companies are replacing cocoa with other types of things, like more milk or more almonds or other types of coatings. The cocoa shortage is due to environmental challenges across the globe.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Main Wire

Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University

“Ag Land Record Set In Sioux County; NW Iowa Values Highest In State”
By: KWIA Radio – January 2, 2026
“Farmers Still the Ones Buying Farmland”
By: KWIA Radio – December 30, 2025

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“The Economics Cost of Trump’s Migrant Crackdown”
By: Financial Times - March 24, 2026
“Rising Oil Prices Could Increase Food Costs—But Hoarding Groceries ‘Makes a Bad Situation Worse,’ Economist Says”
By: CNBC – March 27, 2206

Jeffrey Dorfman, North Carolina State University

“NC Scholars Among Those Supporting States’ Suit Against Trump Tariffs”

By: Carolina Journal – March 23, 2026

“Contrary to the purpose and limited delegation of Section 122, President Trump has invoked this statute to impose immense and ever-changing tariffs on whatever goods entering the United States he chooses and for whatever reasons he finds convenient.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Carolina Journal

Chad Hart, Iowa State University

“Fertilizer Prices Bring More Pain For American Farmers Amid War in Iran”

By: Channel 3000 – March 23, 2026

“While the broader American economy is on solid footing, the agricultural economy’s been in a recession… Low crop prices over the past three years and rising farm bankruptcies following the pandemic. The crisis in crops is so severe that farmers actually lose money growing corn, oats, rice and other staples.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Channel 3000

Daniel Sumner, University of California, Davis

“How the War in Iran Is Impacting Fertilizer Supplies, Food Prices”

By: KQQED – March 27, 2026

“Farmers don’t get up in the morning and say, holy smoke, I better buy some fertilizer. They will have contracted and actually purchased and taken delivery of fertilizer in the middle of the winter. Much of what we’re talking about with fertilizer will be decisions that people are making months, maybe six months from now, many of them for the 2027 planting decision.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: KQQED

Christopher Barrett, Cornell University

“Raspberry Prices Double, Largely Due to Iran War”

By: Newser – March 27, 2026

"Raspberries are a really nice microcosm of several different economic layers threaded together that were in place before the conflict in Iran. The result: skimpy selection, erratic quality, and sticker shock. One shopper's current strategy: wait for sales—and skip raspberries when "the price is crazy."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Newser

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Members in the News: March 23, 2026

2026-03-23T15:11:02.169-05:00

Ricky Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Iran War: Hormuz Crisis Raises Fears For Global Agriculture And Food Security”

By: AA.com – March 1, 2026

“Without a steady supply of high-grade commercial fertilizer, yields really suffer, and that’s going to have direct implications for international agricultural trade and food prices around the world”

(Continued...)
Read more on: AA.com

Martin Smith, Duke University

“This Year's Fish Fry Might Cost More. Blame Tariffs”

By: Marketplace – March 13, 2026

“That’s what I would call a normal year. And we’re not in a normal year. The main cause of that price spike is tariffs. We import roughly 75% of the seafood that Americans consume. So those tariffs are increasing the price of seafood.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Marketplace

Alexandra Hill, University of California, Berkeley

“Farmworkers Lament Loss of Hours and Pay”

By: Morning Ag Clips – March 17, 2026

“By 2022, when the overtime law was partially phased in, farmworkers in California were working three to five hours less per week than a decade prior. On average, their weekly income had declined by $80 to $120.

(Continued...)
Read more on: Morning Ag Clips

Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Analyst Says Strategic Trade Moves Could Boost U.S. Farm Outlook”

By: Brownfield – May 17, 2026

“We’re going to have to make our peace with China. Whether it be export sales to China or export sales to something else. Addressing beef exports to China is a good first step… Right now, China has refused to reinstate licenses for the majority of beef exporting facilities in the United States. It was sort of our third largest destination market, well over $10 billion, right up there with Japan and South Korea. That’s pretty much dropped to almost zero.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“How Iran War Is Disrupting the Food Supply Chain”

By: Bloomberg – March 19, 2026

“The full impact is likely to take some time to materialize. Food prices tend to respond to prolonged energy shocks, not short spikes, and the effect on grocery prices is typically indirect and delayed."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Bloomberg

Rabail Chandio , Iowa State University

“Farmland Values Inch Up in Market Readjustment”
By: Iowa Farm Bureau – December 3, 2025
“What’s Behind The Average Increase in 2025 Iowa Farmland Values?”
By: Farm Progress – December 19, 2025
“Livestock Land Drives Higher Farmland Values in Iowa”
By: Iowa Farmer Today – December 10, 2025
"Land values hold steady in Iowa After a Year of Uncertainty For Farmers"
By: Iowa Public Radio - December 10, 2025
Value of Iowa Farmland Holds Steady, Row Crop Land Sees Decline
By: We Are Iowa - December 10, 2025
"ISU survey: Northwest Iowa farmland values tick up in 2025"
By: Storm Lake Times - December 10, 2025
"ISU Survey: Iowa Farmland Values Stable"
By: Des Moines Register - December 10, 2025
"Iowa farmland with livestock has higher value in annual ISU survey"
By: Radio Iowa - December 10, 2025

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

“Tax Credits Keep Struggling Biodiesel Plants Operational”

By: Feed and Grain – March 20, 2026

“Tax credits have become a financial lifeline for U.S. biodiesel plants, with recent federal and state subsidies preventing what would otherwise be continuous shutdown signals since early 2025, according to "Biodiesel Production Profits and Tax Credits by Scott Irwin"

(Continued...)
Read more on: Feed and Grain

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Call for Papers: Special Issue on Latin American Agricultural Economics

2026-03-18T07:59:00.001-05:00

Submission Deadline: September 15, 2026

The International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) and the editors of Agricultural Economics invite submissions for a special issue dedicated to Latin America. This initiative follows recent board meetings identifying the region as having low representation in the journal. The goal is to foster deeper engagement with regional researchers and increase the global visibility of their contributions to the field.

Scope and Inclusivity:

We seek papers that align with the broad scope of Agricultural Economics: "from consumption and nutrition to land use and the environment, at every scale of analysis from households to markets and the macro-economy. Applicable methodologies include econometric estimation and statistical hypothesis testing, optimization and simulation models, descriptive reviews and policy analyses. We particularly encourage submission of empirical work that can be replicated and tested by others."

We welcome submissions from scholars globally and we specifically encourage the participation of researchers based in Latin America. We also strongly encourage submissions from early-career researchers, including PhD students and postdoctoral scholars from the region who are currently studying or working abroad.

Regional Workshop:

To facilitate scholarly exchange, authors of accepted papers or papers invited for resubmission will be invited to a workshop in the region in early 2027. The workshop will provide in-depth feedback from the journal's co-editors and IAAE board members. To support participation, the IAAE will fund travel and accommodation for one author per accepted paper from the region. PhD and postdoctoral students from Latin America currently working abroad will also be considered for travel support to facilitate their ongoing connection to the regional research community. Expressions of interest to hold the workshop from universities in the region are welcomed.

Submission Process:

The submission portal opens on March 15, 2026. Authors should submit manuscripts via the Agricultural Economics online submission portal and select the "Latin America Special Issue" option.

Review Process:

Submissions will undergo expedited peer review, with initial decisions expected within two months.

For questions regarding the scope or the workshop, please contact the Lead Guest Editor, Nelson Villoria (nvilloria@ksu.edu).

2026 Extension Competition for Graduate Students

2026-03-18T07:55:00.002-05:00

The AAEA Extension Competition for Graduate Students provides an opportunity to develop and/or get feedback on programs that communicate research and practical information to Extension (usually non-economist) audiences. Entries can be based upon graduate student research for a thesis, dissertation or other academic work. The competition is sponsored by the Extension and Graduate Student Sections. Applications due by Friday, May 8, 2026.

Who’s Eligible?

Graduate students currently engaged in topics related to agricultural economics, agribusiness, natural resources, and/or community economic development, as well as those who graduated from such programs in Spring 2026 or later.

Participants must identify and work with a mentor with experience in outreach or extension activities.

The Application:

Applications should be addressed to Will Maples at will.maples@msstate.edu and must include:

1. Student’s name, university, department, address and contact information.

2. Title of the extension program to be delivered.

3. A summary of the proposed extension program. This should include project outcomes, target audience, delivery plans, communication methods and activities planned for distributing the information to the public such as fact sheets, reports, web sites, spreadsheets, and presentations (4 page maximum). If the applicant was part of a team, the role of the applicant within the team must be made clear. If the proposed project is building upon the success of other extension programs, the summary should include a description of the previous program and the innovative approach of this proposed project.

4. An educational popular press article limited to 500 words and no more than two graphics (tables, charts, etc.). This should be an addendum to your submission packet. Examples include: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/01/us-price-inflation-focus-on-farm- prices.html and https://southernagtoday.org

5. A detailed evaluation plan. This should be an addendum to your submission packet. You may choose to develop your project using a logic model (which is not required). You can see more information on logic models.

6. A profile of the applicant’s background and research (1 page maximum).

7. The mentor’s name and description of the mentor’s role in the project.

Finalists at AAEA

Finalists will be selected to make a 15-minute presentation at the AAEA meeting in Kansas, MO on Sunday July 26, 2026, to a panel of judges, who will then ask 5 minutes of questions. The competition will begin at 8AM CDT. Selection of the finalists will be based on the material submitted and the criteria listed above. Finalists will be notified by June 5, 2026. The top three finalists are expected to make presentations during an AAEA Extension track organized symposium if present in Kansas City, MO. Date and time during conference to be determined.

Awards

Cash awards will be given to those judged to be the top three graduate students in this competition. Award funding is provided by the AAEA Extension Section through membership dues and via support provided by sponsors. Awards are:

· First Place: $1,000 and a plaque

· Second Place: $300 and a certificate

· Third Place: $200 and a certificate

· Other finalists receive finalist certificates.

The top 3 competitors selected will be recognized at the AAEA Awards ceremony. All finalists will be provided tickets to the Extension Luncheon during the AAEA annual meetings.

Submission Deadline: Midnight EDT on Friday, May 8, 2026. Email entries to Will Maples, Competition Committee Chair at will.maples@msstate.edu. Finalists will be notified by June 5, 2026.