AAEA Blog

Members in the News: June 1, 2026

2026-06-01T13:46:40.477-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“How the Holdup Problem Matters in the Indian Solar Power Market”

By: Basis Point Insight – May 22, 2026

“The so-called “holdup” problem is a well-known phenomenon in the subfield of economics, known as Contract Theory. This problem arises when two parties hesitate to cooperate efficiently because they fear the other will exploit their initial investment. In other words, this problem occurs when one party makes a non-refundable, relationship-specific investment, which then gives the other party extra bargaining power to demand better terms at a subsequent point in time.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Ricky Volpe, California Polytechnic State University

“Americans Are About to Pay Even More at the Grocery Store”
By: Yahoo! Finance – May 27, 2026
“Americans Are About to Pay Even More at the Grocery Store”
By: Bloomberg – May 27, 2026

Zachariah Rutledge, Michigan State University

“Migrant Farm Work Booms in Michigan Despite Feds Pay Cut”

By: Glen Arbor Sun – May 25, 2026

“The H-2A wage, officially referred to as the “adverse effect wage rate” or AEWR, was initially designed to protect domestic American workers. What the wage rate is supposed to do is create a wage for H-2A workers that’s high enough that it doesn’t depress the wages of domestic workers or incentivize farmers to bring in workers from abroad. But most farmers say that the cost of subsidizing housing and transportation for foreign workers accomplishes that already.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Glen Arbor Sun

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Grocery Prices Are Rising Again in 2026. It’s Just the Start”
By: Newsweek - May 29, 2026
“Viral Walmart Receipt Shows What Groceries Cost 20 Years Ago”
By: USA Today – May 26, 2026

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“China's Tariff's Cost U.S. Ag Exporters $15B”
By: The Farmers Exchange – May 29, 2026
“Iran War Fertilizer Squeeze Could Spell Trouble For Harvests”
By: AGBI – April 27, 2026
“NDSU Researcher Explains $15 Billion U.S. Ag Export Losses Tied to Tariffs”
By: RFD-TV - May 28, 2026
“Economist Warns Sugar Producers Face Billion-dollar Losses, Congress Calls For Trade Investigation”
By: Korn Radio – May 22, 2026
“House Ag Committee Member Says Need For Substantial Emergency Farmer Aid Rising”
By: Brownfield – May 22, 2026

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University
Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University

“China's Tariff's Cost U.S. Ag Exporters $15B”

By: The Farmers Exchange – May 29, 2026

"Soybeans account for approximately $6.8 billion, or roughly half of the total,' the study found, while 'beef and cotton each contribute about $1.3 billion, tree nuts about $964 million, and corn another $333 million.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Farmers Exchange

Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University

“ARPC Expands Support for Rural Businesses”
By: North Dakota Ag Connection – May 29, 2026
“Resilience, Not Crisis, in the U.S. Agricultural Economy”
By: Swineweb – May 25, 2026

Joana Colussi, Purdue University

“Brazil’s Second-Crop Corn System Continues Challenging U.S. Export Competitiveness”
By: RFD-TV – May 20, 2026
“Wisconsin Farmers Brace For Fertilizer and Fuel Shocks From Iran War”
By: Herald Times Reporter – May 21, 2026
“Missouri Farmers Facing higher fuel, fertilizer costs from Iran war”
By: KFVS12 – May 28, 2026

Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, University of Guelph

“Rising Geopolitical Tensions Show Why Canada’s Agri‑Food Trade Strategy Needs to Change”

By: The Conversation – May 26, 2026

“Canada is one of the world’s leading producers and exporters of agri-food products, and the sector contributed $149.2 billion of the country’s GDP in 2024. Since Canadian agricultural producers and food processors rely extensively on exports, the growth and sustainability of the sector depends heavily on international market access.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Conversation

Ian Sheldon, The Ohio State University

“Ag Economist: USMCA Review Could Shape North American Farm Trade”

By: WJAG – May 26, 2026

“Mexico’s our number one agricultural export market and Canada’s number two… It’s a little bit puzzling why the United States has reimposed anti-dumping duties against the import of tomatoes from Mexico and the U.S. currently has an anti-dumping investigation into mushroom imports from Canada and winter strawberries from Mexico.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: WJAG

Carl Zulauf, The Ohio State University

“With Higher Prices, Ag Economists' Revise Their 2026 Crop Budgets Up”

By: Agri Marketing – May26, 2026

“Revisions to 2026 Illinois crop budgets are provided along with updates to return estimates for the 2025 crop year. Return projections for 2026 are higher because of increases in expected prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat compared with the last crop budget release in January despite higher cost projections. Projected net returns to a typical corn-soybean rotation remain low relative to longer-run historical averages. Updates to estimates for the 2025 crop year result in slightly lower farmer returns compared with the January release.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Agri Marketing

Natalie Loduca, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Scott Swinton, Michigan State University

“How Farmers Respond to Climate-Related Risk”

By: Entrepreneur Newsroom – May 30, 2026

“Crop yields depend not only on weather conditions, but also on the producer’s management decisions. We wanted to better understand how farmers perceive uncertainty under changing climate conditions.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Entrepreneur Newsroom

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University

“U.S. Grocery Prices Rose in April, But Gas Spikes Weren’t the Only Reason”

By: Agri news – May 30, 2026

The full impact of rising energy costs on food likely has not hit retail grocery prices yet in the United States. Higher costs to produce, process, store and transport food can take three to six months to show up on supermarket shelves, where prices typically fall slowly once increased.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Agri News

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Members in the News: May 26, 2026

2026-05-26T09:45:00.000-05:00

Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University

“Iowa Farmland Auctions Bring Over $78 Million in March”

By: Successful Farming - April 14, 2026

“March and recent sales were generally reflective of current market trends, not an exception… Several economic forces are shaping farmland values and auction activity across the state”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Successful Farming

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“Is India’s Teacher Knowledge Gap Quietly Undermining Learning?”

By: Basis Point Insight – May 19, 2026

”Variation in teacher content knowledge may help explain why remedial and differentiated learning programs succeed in some contexts but fail in others. Improving the effectiveness of these interventions will likely require investment not only in pedagogical training but also in strengthening teachers’ command over the subjects they teach.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University

“Farmland Values Relatively Stable Amid Volatile World Markets”

By: Illinois Farmer Today – April 18, 2026

“While the actual dollar figure increased, if adjusted for inflation, farmland values decline 1.8% in 2025. There were also regional variations. This growth was reported by six of the nine crop reporting districts in Iowa, concentrated at the eastern and western parts of the state.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Illinois Farmer Today

Dale Manning, University of Tennessee

“How much is a bat worth? Protecting these tiny insect‑eaters isn’t just good for farms – their deaths cost taxpayers and the wider economy”

By: The Conversation – May 14, 2026

“Most Americans tend to think about bats only around Halloween, but the U.S. economy benefits from these furry flying mammals every day.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Conversation

Philip Pardey, University of Minnesota

“The Hidden Cost Of Dwindling Agricultural Research”

By: Straight Arrow News – May 13, 2026

“In the meantime, the rest of the world has been growing at a much faster pace than us. Brazil, India and China collectively moved past the U.S. back in 2008. That makes United States agriculture less competitive in the long run, putting American farmers who rely on international markets at a disadvantage.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Straight Arrow News

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University
Bernhard Dalheimer, Purdue University

“US Grocery Prices Soared in April — But Gas Spikes Weren’t The Only Reason Why”

By: New York Post – May 13, 2026

“The full impact of rising energy costs on food likely has not hit retail grocery prices yet in the US. Most of what we’re seeing now in the food price chain probably predates the conflict. We’re cautiously waiting to see what the June numbers and the May numbers might show as they come out in terms of … the extent to which energy shocks in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping blockades and so forth are going to impact food prices.”

“Today’s CPI showed that food prices have been rising 3.2 percent in the past year, but the story behind that number is more complicated than just an energy shock. Prices for some foods remained more or less flat or declined over 12 months. Milk and chicken dipped slightly. Butter cost 5.8% less in April than it did a year earlier.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: New York Post

Eric Belasco, Montana State University

“The Unexpected Force Keeping Beef Prices High And Why the Pressure Could Last For Years”

By: FOX News – May 11, 2026

"The biggest thing has been drought… Years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, including breeding cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it harder to rebuild.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: FOX News

Kelvin Mulungu, International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center

“Preserving Pollinators is Good For Health — And Income”

By: NPR – May 6, 2026

"Biodiversity isn't just about saving bees or wild animals. It's for the benefit of humans and sometimes the most vulnerable populations. It promotes income, it promotes nutrition, it promotes health."

(Continued...)
Read more on: NPR

Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Canada is Kicking its US Booze Habit As trade Tensions Persist”
By: The Conversation – May 7, 2026
“A 40-Year-Old Iran Tariff Quietly Built America’s Pistachio Empire”
By: Salon – May 6, 2026

Craig Carpenter, Michigan State University

“What The USDA-Announced Changes To SNAP-Authorized Retailers Could Mean For Lower-Income Areas”
By: WZZM13 – May 7, 2026
“Local News Outlets Show Communities Struggling With Food Insecurity Amid Massive SNAP Cuts”
By: Media Matters – May 13, 2026

Ian Sheldon, The Ohio State University

“Economist Cautions China Purchase Agreement Could Fall Short Despite Strong Purchase Targets”

By: Brownfield – May 19, 2026

“If China follows through with the purchase commitments… It looks like for this year it would lead to U.S. imports increasing to $28 to $30 billion. That’s still $8 billion below the peak of our exports to China, $38 billion in 2022.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

David Ortega, Michigan State University

"Trump to Ease Restrictions on Climate ‘Super Pollutants’"
By: New York Times - May 21, 2026
"Trump Eases Curbs on Planet-Warming Gases Used in Refrigerants"
By: Agence France-Press - May 21, 2026
"Food Prices Are Spiking. What’s Changing the Most?"
By: PBS News - May 20, 2026

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnic University

"How Southern California Restaurants and Farmers Are Coping With Rising Produce Costs"
By: CBS LA - May 21, 2026
"Food Price Inflation Likely to Linger"
By: Food Navigator - May 18, 2026
"Food Prices Soar in The Central Valley"
By: Valley Voice - May 21, 2026

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Members in the News: May 18, 2026

2026-05-18T14:46:56.868-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“Bribes, Bureaucracy and the Case for a Universal Basic Income”
By: Basis Point Insight – May 12, 2026
“Political Pulse: What Suspending the Federal Gas Tax Means”
By: ABC 13 – May 13, 2026
“What is the Status of the American Dream Today?”
By: Rochester Business Journal – May 8, 2026

Benjamin Brown, University of Missouri

“Wet weather creates uneven planting progress across Missouri”

By: Brownfield – May 4, 2026

“We’ve seen quite a bit of field activity in the southern half of the state. My family farms in west central Missouri. I was home the weekend before last and most of the corn is planted. Not only is it planted, but it’s also six to eight inches up out of the ground at this point. Conversely, right, like you look at the northern part of the state, and it’s been much slower going.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University

“Farmland Values Relatively Stable Amid Volatile World Markets”

By: Illinois Farmer Today – April 18, 2026

(Continued...)
Read more on: Illinois Farmer Today

Alexis Villacis, The Ohio State University

“The Real Reason Gummy Candy Is Everywhere (It Has Nothing to Do with Taste)”

By: All Recipes – May 10, 2026

“As long as the government intervenes in this type of price setting, there's always a problem because you don't let the free markets work."

(Continued...)
Read more on: All Recipes

David Ortega, Michigan State University
William Masters, Tufts University

“Prices For These Grocery Items Have Spiked Highest Since the War Began”

By: The Washington Post – May 12, 2026

“Still, the food price shocks shouldn’t be as dramatic and widespread as those felt in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That region is a significant producer of grain.”

“But the inflation this time differs from rising prices after the pandemic. In 2022, people had saved money after saving while in the pandemic lockdown and could more easily absorb some of the demand-fueled inflation. Now, supply costs are driving the increases. Here, there’s not even the higher paychecks to cushion the blow.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Washington Post

David Ortega, Michigan State University
Kenneth Foster, Purdue University
Bernhard Dalheimer, Purdue University

“Higher Gas Prices Are Seeping Into the Produce Aisle”

By: The Wall Street Journal – May 10, 2026

“Fruits and vegetables tend to feel some of the earliest effects of surges in fuel prices since they often have to travel long distances in a hurry, in temperature-controlled environments. Energy, storage and transportation costs make up roughly 12% of the price of a vegetable, for example, compared with less than 8% for snacks and bakery products.”

“The pressure on the industry could increase soon. Distributors absorbed early cost rises on the assumption that the war would end quickly. Uncertainty about the length of the conflict has altered that calculus. If I’m managing a distribution supply chain, I’m looking at this conflict and thinking…this is a long-term shift in my costs.”

“Often distributors try to absorb unexpected costs, sensitive that customers react poorly to expensive food. But over the past year, companies already have absorbed the costs of various other price shocks, leaving them with less wiggle room to avoid passing costs on to retailers and consumers.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Wall Street Journal

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Fuel, munitions and food: Trump’s Iran war rips across US Economy”
By: Financial Times – May 11,2026
“Why Have Grocery Prices Shot Up the Most in 4 years? We Explain”
By: USA Today – May 14, 2026

David Ortega, Michigan State University
Parke Wilde, Tufts University

“Tomatoes, Seafood and More: Why Are These Grocery Prices Soaring?”

By: ABC News – May 13, 2026

“Perishable foods are the canary in the coal mine when we look at the impact of high diesel costs on groceries. Grocers in the U.S. import a large share of their tomatoes from Mexico, but weather-related damage in that country has slashed tomato output… The impact we’re seeing is not just driven by one factor. It’s really a combination.”

“Whenever there is disruption in energy markets, it works its way into food prices eventually. I think that’s what we’re seeing.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: ABC News

Ricky Volpe, California Polytechnic State University

“More Beef Price Pressures Incoming, Analyst Warns”
By: Agri Pulse – May 15, 2026
A New Wave of Food Inflation is Building Across the Supply Chain
By: Food Navigator - May 15, 2026

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

"In America’s Farming Heartland, Spiralling Costs Test Loyalty to Trump"
By: Yahoo! News - May 15, 2026
"Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Why the Risk of a Global Food Crisis Is Now Worrying the United Nations"
By: Midi Libre - May 12, 2026

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Members in the News: May 11, 2026

2026-05-11T10:07:00.000-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“Workers in Rochester, NY, and Elsewhere Would Benefit from a Federal Paid Sick Leave Law”

By: Medium – May 2, 2026

“Workers in Rochester, New York would benefit substantially from universal paid sick leave. Rochester’s economy relies heavily on healthcare, education, manufacturing, and service industries — sectors where employees frequently work in close contact with colleagues and the public.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Medium

Benjamin Brown, University of Missouri

“Wet weather creates uneven planting progress across Missouri”

By: Brownfield – May 4, 2026

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

Steven Deller, University of Wisconsin-Madison

“Wisconsin Lost Thousands of Manufacturing Jobs in 2025”

By: Urban Milwaukee – May 4, 2026

“The state is still heavily dependent on manufacturing, an industry that “tends to be more sensitive to downward trends in the economy. Some of the leading economic indicators out there that do a really good job of forecasting what’s going to happen to the economy, zero-in on what’s happening to manufacturing. And for the Upper Midwest, some of those indicators are kind of looking down, so these employment numbers are not completely surprising.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Urban Milwaukee

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University

“Global Energy Costs Rise As Iran War Affects Brent Crude Oil Price”

By: Europe Says – May 5, 2026

“There is typically a 3- to 6-month lag between an energy price shock and an increase in retail food prices. The lag can be up to a year for packaged foods with a longer shelf life.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Europe Says

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“When Will The Iran War Hit Food Prices”

By: NPR – May 6, 2026

(Continued...)
Read more on: NPR

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“The Iran War’s Unexpected Victims: American Farmers”
By: MS Now – May 8, 2026
“Trump Agriculture Chief Claims ‘Golden Age’ Is Coming. US Farmers Say They’re ‘Barely, Barely Getting By’”
By: Common Dreams – May 7, 2026
“Steep Fertilizer and Fuel Prices Could Squeeze US Farmers For Months to Come”
By: WPR – May 6, 2026
“The Iran War: Farmers in Brazil and Argentina Face Rising Fertilizer and Energy Prices”
By: Ag News – May 6, 2026

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Members in the News: May 4, 2026

2026-05-04T13:18:04.517-05:00

David Ortega, Michigan State University
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea,Cornell University
Richard Volpe, California Polytechnic State University

“Tariffs, War, and Now a Historic Drought Have Converged into a ‘Perfect Storm’ for U.S. Farmers and Food Prices”

By: Yahoo! Finance – April 21, 2026

“What’s unique about the current moment is that you have this perfect storm of factors.”

“It’s unusually dry in various parts of the country. It’s been hitting hard in the Central Plains and in parts of the South, all along the Cotton Belt.”

“What I think we’re going to see is a one-two punch of higher energy prices and higher fertilizer costs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Yahoo! Finance

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“High Urea Prices Likely to Linger”

By: Brownfield Ag News Online – April 23, 2026

“Even in the most optimistic scenario, we are still seeing $600 to $700 well through the fall period. Through 2027 we see prices along the $500 to $600 range. It was about $400 to $500 before the crisis.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield Ag News Online

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“Can a Participation Deficit Explain India’s Low Per Capita Income?”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 29, 2026

“India presents a striking development paradox: despite sustaining GDP growth of 6-7% annually for three decades, its per capita income remains among the lowest of major economies—approximately $2,400, compared with China’s $12,500. New research argues that conventional explanations—population size, inequality, or sectoral composition—are insufficient.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Michael Langemeier, Purdue University
Joana Colussi, Purdue University

“Rising Costs Force Farmers to Rebuild Budgets in Real Time”

By: RFD TV – April 24, 2026

“While overall inflation has cooled from highs seen in recent years, the same can’t be said for input costs. Increases in farm input costs do not always align with inflation. Worse, farm cost increases tend to be more unpredictable and impact farmers more quickly than consumer inflation.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: RFD TV

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University
Bernhard Dalheimer, Purdue University
David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Why the Iran War Might Not Raise Your Grocery Bill Until Next Year”

By: Yahoo! Finance – April 26, 2026

“If the conflict persists and starts to affect the prices that farmers pay for the ‘27 crop, then you start to see real food price effects in ‘27,”

“Where could that shock be seen first? It’s in dairy where the transportation cost share is highest, and we need to cool the dairy all the way through.”

“Higher diesel prices — which were down slightly this week from earlier this month, averaging about $5.40 per gallon — are worth watching for their impacts on food prices.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Yahoo! Finance

Andrew Van Leuven, University of Vermont

“Vermont’s Love-Hate Relationship With Fast Food”

By: Vermont Public – April 23, 2026

“We may overstate our value for mom and pop, while still being huge, maybe, closeted fans of, you know, McNuggets and Crunchwrap Supremes. I still think people do want these, we could say, we can call them amenities, right, within a reasonable distance.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Vermont Public

David Ortega, Michigan State University

"Demand Destruction: How the Iran War Could Rattle or Break the US Economy"

By: CNN - April 30, 2026

“It can take the better part of six months, (or) even longer, to feel the full impacts of this shock reflected in food prices."

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNN

Jeffrey Dorfman, North Carolina State University

“Can Farmers Get Tariff Money Back? New Portal Raises Questions”

By: Farm Progress – April 29, 2026

“Farmers will not be applying for refunds, as that will be done by whoever directly paid the tariff to the federal government. It is possible that some companies will issue refunds to customers on a “pass-through basis,” but some are skeptical that this will happen. We also may see implicit refunds to farmers through lower prices on future purchases, as importing firms try to keep good customers happy and loyal.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Farm Progress

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University

“‘Drop Like a Rock’: Trump Says Gas Prices Will Plummet When Iran War Ends, Despite Current Climate”

By: 14 News – April 30, 2026

“There is typically a 3- to 6-month lag between an energy price shock and an increase in retail food prices. The lag can be up to a year for packaged foods with a longer shelf life.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: 14 News

Peter Orazem, Iowa State University
Aakansha Jain, Iowa State University

“Iowa State College Graduates Left For Bigger Cities, But They're Returning to Iowa”

By: Axios – April 21, 2026

“The reasons behind the returns aren't clear. One theory is that Iowans are returning to raise families here because of cheaper housing, decent schools and proximity to relatives.”

“Rural areas aren't seeing those returns, potentially reflecting limited job opportunities, especially outside agriculture, and fewer services such as health care and retirement options.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Axios

Stephen Koontz, Colorado State University

“Grain Markets Challenge Farmers the Rest of 2026”

By: High Plains Journal – May 1, 2026

“The strong exports have been very good—but world supplies of course grains are tight compared to the United States, so if you want corn then you are coming here. The U.S. price has been the lowest in the world. The good news is that we are on the way to export our enormous crop.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: High Plains Journal

Hunter Biram, University of Arkansas

“Ag, Food Economics Are Hard to Simplify”

By: Magnolia Reporter – May 3, 2026

“Consumers who see parallels between crude oil and gas prices might expect the same for food, but what seems like a straightforward relationship between prices at the farm and prices at the grocery store is anything but simple. Making a direct connection between the two “is extremely difficult.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Magnolia Reporter

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Members in the News: April 27, 2026

2026-04-27T15:02:00.003-05:00

Zach Rutledge, Michigan State University

“Immigration Crackdowns Spur Fears of Labor Shortages for Farmers”

By: SAN – April 19, 2026

“Immigrants play a very large role in U.S. agriculture. Around 70% of agricultural workers in the U.S. are from different countries. Farmers in Washington state have reported seeing an increase in their workers being detained in recent weeks, according to Save Family Farming.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: SAN

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“New Research Shows Rising Class, Falling Race Gaps in Economic Mobility”

By: Rochester Beacon – April 21, 2026

“Although these efforts are laudable, it is instructive to comprehend the striking changes one sees in intergenerational economic mobility in the United States by both race and class over a relatively short period.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Rochester Beacon

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Tariffs, War, And Now a Historic Drought Have Converged into a ‘Perfect Storm’ for U.S. Farmers and Food Prices”

By: Fortune – April 21, 2026

“What I think we’re going to see is a one-two punch of higher energy prices and higher fertilizer costs. We’re feeling energy now, then as we get into late summer and into the fall, that’s where we’re really going to start seeing the impact of the higher fertilizer costs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Fortune

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“No Matter How You Slice it, a Tomato is Getting Way More Expensive”

By: Fortune – April 21, 2026

“It’s really this perfect storm of factors that are impacting tomato prices. Last summer the U.S. put a 17% tax on Mexican tomatoes. The timing of that tax coincided with a terrible growing season in the U.S. A cold snap in Florida, where most domestic fresh tomatoes are farmed, caused $160 million in damage.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Fortune

Ian Sheldon, The Ohio State University

“What Does Iran Conflict Mean Beyond Higher Oil Prices”
By: Morning AgClips - March10, 2026
“U.S.-China Trade Uncertainty”
By: Brownfield Ag News - March 23, 2026
“Iran Tensions Drive Up Fertilizer Prices”
By: Spectrum News, April 6, 2026
“Rising Energy Prices Are Impacting Ohio Farmers, OSU Economists Say”
By: WTOL 11 - April 8, 2026
“Global Conflict And Trade Shifts Pressuring U.S. Ag Exports”
By: Brownfield - April 17, 2026

Margaret Jodlowski, The Ohio State University

“Survey Measures Job Satisfaction For H-2A Farm Workers in Ohio”

By: Lancaster Farming - April 20, 2026

“Agricultural workers in the H-2A visa program who also farm in their home countries tend to have positive feelings about their work in the United States."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Lancaster Farming

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University

“BBQ Lovers Beware: Middle East Conflict Might Disrupt Your Summer Plans This Year”

By: FOX News – April 18, 2026

“The impact of ongoing challenges in the Middle East on energy prices impacts nearly every facet of the U.S. economy and beef-cattle are not immune.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: FOX News

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

“Farm Economy 2026 Outlook: Crop Losses Near $35 Billion and Beef Remains the Lone Bright Spot Heading into the New Year”

By: Agro Informicon – April 18, 2026

“The deeper concern is structural: whether the 2025 trade war has produced the same type of permanent market share shift to South America — principally Brazil — that followed the first Trump administration’s trade war in 2017-2018. Brazil is now the world’s dominant soybean producer, and Chinese buyers have demonstrated their ability and willingness to source from South America during periods of political tension with the United States.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Agro Informicon

Dawn Thilmany, Colorado State University

“This Tamale Act Could Throw Open the Door For More Home Kitchen Entrepreneurs in Colorado”

By: CPR News –April 15, 2026

“For some subset of these businesses, they do become employers. They do grow and become economically viable businesses… No matter what someone's trying to do out of their home, it is very hard for people to accelerate at the level they want to until they're in one of these more sophisticated facilities where you can really have a workflow.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CPR News

Sean Cash, Tufts University

“Study Shows FDA ‘Healthy’ Label Boosts Demand for Healthier Snacks”

By: Newsweek – April 22, 2026

“Our findings demonstrate that labels act as signals for consumers, and policy can shape how well those signals work. When labels are viewed as credible, such as when they have the endorsement of a government agency, they are more likely to influence eating patterns and purchasing habits.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Newsweek

Karen DeLong, University of Tennessee

“Tennessee Researchers Find Buyers Pay More for Local Wine Labels”

By: Vinetur – April 21, 2026

“Overall, preliminary findings show that quality certification, AVAs and alcohol content definitely influence consumers’ valuation of wines. Our research shows that the new QAP logo and sourcing grapes from a Tennessee AVA will help increase consumer willingness to pay for Tennessee wines.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Vinetur

Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University

“As Iran Crisis Drags on, Fears of Global Food Catastrophe Grow”

By: Aljazeera – April 21, 2026

“Recent price moves should be interpreted with caution, describing them as a “mixed signal, not a clear reason for reassurance. Input shocks often transmit with a lag. Inventories, pre-purchased fertiliser, delayed pass-through, and uncertainty about duration can all temporarily mute the effect.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Aljazeera

Member Blog: David Zilberman

2026-04-27T07:20:00.005-05:00

Bruce McCarl: An Unsung Hero of Climate Change Economics

By David ZILBERMAN / April 26, 2026

Around 1985, a large, imposing, energetic man walked into my office and began telling me about his research on technology adoption and farm-system choices. He introduced himself as Bruce McCarl from Oregon State. I had just finished a paper on adoption, and I was embarrassed that I had ignored his work. So I read some of his papers, and they were impressive, coming from a different intellectual tradition. I had been trained in mainstream microeconomics: elegant models, propositions, and empirically estimable questions. McCarl came from a different world. He earned a Ph.D. in operations research from Penn State, and his work had a much more action-oriented approach.

He emphasized solving problems: identifying the key elements, recognizing the major practical constraints, and developing techniques that could guide decisions. His models recognized markets and other factors central to standard economics, but they were part of a broader system rather than the sole focus. McCarl’s work showed me a different and very effective way to understand and solve agricultural problems. He also developed important computer programs that could address some of the biggest practical problems we were facing.

Bruce’s research covered many topics. He became a leading scholar of water economics in Texas, including the management of the Edwards Aquifer. He studied the value of economic models for El Niño and climate change, and he built models of agricultural-sector and forestry activities. In each of these models, the operational quality was amazing and the economic logic flawless. Yet this was not the kind of work that appeared every day in mainstream economics journals. I was glad that agricultural economics journals provided a home for this literature. To me, it helped make agricultural economics unique.

In the 1990s, when Clinton was president, I was involved in the administration’s work on climate change. I worked with a White House group and an EPA group that sought to develop a U.S. climate policy and persuade Congress to support the Kyoto Protocol. We also began organizing conferences on climate change. I realized that one person was providing a unique and important quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture: Bruce McCarl. He was able to estimate how technologies such as low-till and no-till farming, nutrient management, and land-use changes would affect carbon sequestration. He analyzed how agriculture might adapt to mitigation policies and to climate change itself; how climate change would affect crop mix, planting locations, livestock management, and forestry; and how different mitigation strategies might work under alternative climate scenarios.

This work was detailed, practical, and directly relevant to policymaking. Policymakers needed answers to questions about land use, agricultural production, natural resources, and the economic consequences of alternative climate policies. Very few people could provide those answers with the level of detail and credibility that McCarl could. It was remarkable to me that one scholar could put all these pieces together.

In 2020, Rudy Naiga, the department chair at Texas A&M, offered me a Hagler Scholar appointment in the department. That meant I would come to Texas A&M for roughly 30 to 40 days each year to work with faculty, engage with students, and contribute to research. I was excited by the opportunity — not only because it came with good remuneration, but because I was genuinely intrigued by McCarl and his distinctive style of work.

I discovered that Bruce had built an extraordinary research group. He treats his students like family, while training them to tackle difficult practical problems with rigor, creativity, and a deep sense of purpose. His lab included talented people from all over the world who were skilled in methods that were rare in the profession. Together, they created a comprehensive approach to predicting the impacts of climate change and other natural-resource policies. No wonder that Bruce is one of the Climate change Nobel Lauraete. He treated his students like family, while training them to tackle difficult practical problems with rigor, creativity, and a deep sense of purpose.

I found Bruce and his wife Lynn to be extremely warm and friendly. We went to multiple dinners together with other faculty members and to basketball games. He showed me the different facets of College Station and was very generous with his time and attention. He made me feel at home there.

With Bruce and Rudy’s guidance, I got to understand the difference between Berkeley and Texas A&M. Berkeley is able to recruit many more American graduate students, and emphasizes publishing in top journals and recognizition by mainstream economics. In A&M, most of the Ph.D.s are international, from diverse countries like Nepal, Iran, Nigeria, etc., and the emphasis is to solve pratical agricultural economic problems. Some of them are very bright and capable, but on average, lack the polish that Berkeley students have. Many of the students will go back to their countries and work at local universities. McCarl was amazing in his ability to continue wokring with his international students and help them to address their own challenges. Their papers were published in diverse agricultural and scientific journals (varying from Nature to Agronomy and Water, field journals). The papers were numerical and future-oriented. They relied on econmetrics but tried to develop trends and projections without overemphasis on rigorous causality tests. But they were very useful and relevant, very good in utilizing multiple data sources and addressing diverse problems in a practical way. Bruce is proud in being a problem solver in the agricultural resource and economics field, not an economist that happens to work on agriculture. In this regard, I find him as a kindred spirit.

I missed Bruce’s retirement party last week, but I felt that I was there in spirit, and I look forward to continuing to collaborate with him and to seeing him and Lynn when I am in College Station. Knowing Bruce helped me appreciate his genius, and the fact that outstanding scholars may appear in different shapes and with different emphases. By their diversity, they make our research much more relevant and useful. I salute Bruce and Lynn, and I look forward to seeing them as they enter this next stage of their lives.

Members in the News: April 20, 2026

2026-04-20T10:22:00.001-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“How Extreme Heat Deepens Rural Undernutrition”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 12, 2026

“Extreme heat during the agricultural growing season in rural India can have several deleterious effects. It can reduce crop yields. When temperatures rise significantly, agricultural productivity declines, lowering the quantity of food that farm households can consume from their own production.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University
David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Grocery Inflation Slowed in March, But That Doesn't Mean Your Cart is Getting Cheaper”

By: Marketplace – April 13, 2026

“There’s little question that tomatoes is sort of a case study in the ongoing impact of the current administration's tariffs,”

“The canary in the coal mine here are really the perishable food products. They are the least processed, require the most travel, and are time sensitive.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Marketplace

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Why BLTs and Salad Just Got More Expensive — Tariffs, War Send Tomato Prices Soaring”

By: CNBC – April 15, 2026

“I do expect there’s more pain on the horizon for tomato prices. While the White House has exempted many agricultural products from tariffs, tomatoes are among the few major specialty crops imported from Mexico that haven’t received an exemption.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNBC

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Beef, that all-American food, is getting harder for Americans to afford”
By: CBS News – April 13, 2026
“The Strait of Hormuz Blockade is Causing a Slow-Moving Food Crisis”
By: The Verge – April 13, 2026
“Your Grocery Bill Could Get Even More Expensive As Fuel Prices Climb”
By: Harvest Public Media – April 13, 2026

Christopher Wolf, Cornell University

“Butterfat Production and Protein Demand Fuel US Cheese”

By: Lancaster Farming – April 11, 2026

“Global sales have made space for more production to come online and new U.S. cheeses to be developed while whey has its own markets and demand, a big step up from its former secondary role.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Lancaster Farming

Seth Meyer, University of Missouri

“Farmers Grow Wary of USDA as Survey Response Rates Plummet - Columbia Today”

By: National Today – April 10, 2026

“Recent USDA surveys have seen response rates plummet to historic lows. This trend has emerged as farmers grapple with a prolonged downturn in the agricultural economy, potentially fueling distrust in the government agency tasked with supporting their interests.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: National Today

Kenneth Foster, Purdue University

“Rising Oil Prices Expose How Vulnerable US Households Remain to Inflation”

By: CNN – April 12, 2026

“For lower-income households, the delayed effects may be the hardest part. We have households in our country where the percentage of income spent on food is closer to 50%,… And when you add on fuel for heating your home or for transportation for you getting to work, you’re now talking about a sizable percentage of people’s income that’s really not adjustable.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNN

Amelia Finaret, Allegheny College

“New USDA Food Pyramid Could Add $1,000 to Your Grocery Bill”

By: USA Today - April 10, 2026

"While animal-sourced foods can provide complete proteins, those sources of nutrition can also be found in cheaper options such as plant-based foods. So instead of buying beef, which is one of the most expensive forms of protein that you can get right now, combining rice and beans or combining any kind of grain with any kind of lentil is another way to get a complete protein."

(Continued...)
Read more on: USA Today

Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Why BLTs and Salad Just Got More Expensive — Tariffs, War Send Tomato Prices Soaring”

By: CNBC – April 15, 2026

“Tariffs levied on imports of Mexican tomatoes appear to be the primary factor underpinning the recent runup in price.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CNBC

Chad Fiechter, Purdue University

“The Precision Ag Paradox: Why More Tech Doesn’t Always Mean More Profit”

By: Hoosier Ag Today – April 13, 2026

“On average, most precision ag bundles are not associated with improved efficiency. Of the 17 different combinations we examined, only two showed statistically meaningful gains: automated guidance on its own, and the combination of yield monitors with grid soil sampling.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Hoosier Ag Today

Paul Mitchell, University of Wisconsin-Madison

“Already Under Financial Pressure, Farmers Squeezed Further By Tariffs and Iran War”

By: PBS – April, 2026

"They're very concerned about negative margins driven by low prices and high cost. There's just a liquidity cash crunch for a lot of them and they're just trying to figure out how to deal with everything."

(Continued...)
Read more on: PBS

Allen Featherstone, Kansas State University

“Number of Farm Lenders Shrinks as Loan Volume Increases”

By: Capital Press – April 13, 2026

“A declining number of banks that lend bigger amounts of money points to consolidation, rather than institutions getting out of the agricultural industry altogether.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Capital Press

Wendong Zhang, Cornell University

“Trump's Tariffs Dealt an Economic Blow to All 50 States, Study Finds”

By: Fortune – April 15, 2026

“The United States doesn’t have one agricultural trade exposure—it has 50 different ones… When processors face higher input costs, they pass it along. Eventually, the consumer in a New York grocery store is paying more for something that traces back to a trade dispute in Washington—even if New York itself exports very little.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Fortune

Dawn Thilmany, Colorado State University

“Colorado’s small rural districts face big financial strains, but anchor communities and have outsized outcomes”

By: CPR News – April 15, 2026

“Schools and health care are the two most critical factors in a small town’s ability to sustain itself. They’re also a primary economic anchor, providing middle-income jobs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: CPR News

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

"Strait Delays Could Keep Global Fertilizer Flows in Limbo for Months"
By: Red River Farm Network - April 17, 2026
"Fertilizer Prices to Stay Elevated Through 2027 Even If Strait of Hormuz Reopens, Says Analyst"
By: Brownfield - April 10, 2026
"Iran Crisis Adds Cost Pressure, Not a Food Shock"
By: Miller Magazine - April 13, 2026
Will the Iran crisis lead to another round of food price spikes?
By: CGIAR - April 7, 2026

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Members in the News: April 13, 2026

2026-04-13T13:15:12.954-05:00

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“India’s Farm Productivity Puzzle Lies in Distorted Land Markets”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 8, 2026

“It is now well known that agricultural productivity in India is very low. Despite overall economic progress, agricultural productivity in India remains extremely low compared to developed countries, with output per worker only a small fraction of that in the United States.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

William Burke, Michigan State University

“Rising Oil Prices Threaten Global Food Security”

By: KTVU – April 6, 2026

“Global food costs keep climbing, and farmers are feeling the squeeze. The U.N.’s FAO reports another jump in prices, while the U.S. exports phosphate fertilizers even as domestic shortages hit spring planting. William Burke, an agricultural economist, at The University of Maryland Eastern Shore, gives insight.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: KTVU

Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Why Is 95 Percent of the World’s Bourbon Made in Kentucky?”
By: Freakonomics – April 3, 2026
“U.S. Farmers Face ‘New Era of Trade Deficits’ as Global Markets Shift”
By: Farm Progress – April 2, 2026

Seungki Lee, The Ohio State University

“The Iran War is Changing How Millions of People Cook — And What They Eat”

By: Grist – April 6, 2026

“Because of the economic strain created by the conflict, nation-level progress toward the U.N.’s sustainable development targets, for example, are more likely to see at least a short-term regression on the aim to transition billions of households away from using coal, kerosene, or solid biomass as primary cooking fuels.”

(Continued...)
Read more on:Grist

Charles Martinez, University of Tennessee

“Should Market Data Add a Beef x Dairy Category?”

By: Feedstuffs – February 24, 2026

“Beef on dairy has always been available as a backup strategy for dairy producers to maintain operations during slumps of dairy prices. But the current landscape has producers using artificial insemination to make genetic-based decisions for dairy production while also intentionally using semen from beef bulls to produce calves to market as beef.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Feedstuffs

Cesar Escalante, University of Georgia

“Expanding H-2A Farmworker Program Could Increase Health, Safety Risks”

By: PNS – April 8, 2026

“Native-born workers will only work for one day or half a day, and then they quit… They cannot tolerate the working conditions.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: PNS

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Grocery Prices Rise, But These Staples Are Getting Cheaper”

By: USA Today - April 8, 2026

“There have been several "shocks" that have affected the agricultural and food industry, such as bird flu devastating the egg markets, climate-driven droughts hammering coffee and fresh produce production and tariffs layering additional costs onto import-heavy categories. These shocks hit products in different ways, which is why you get such a mixed picture when you look item by item. But the net result is that families are still paying more at the register."

(Continued...)
Read more on: USA Today

Christopher Wolf, Cornell University

“‘The Good Old Days Are Gone’: How Will US Prices Stand As War in Iran Surges On?”

By: The Guardian – April 4, 2026

“Along with oil prices, diesel and fertilizer prices are also rising, which are critical to farming. That makes both the cost of growing crops and raising livestock more expensive.”

(Continued...)
Read more on:The Guardian

Jeffrey Dorfman, North Carolina State University

“Diesel and Fertilizer Cost Spikes Put Squeeze on NC Corn Farmers”

By: Carolina Public Press – April 6, 2026

“Higher oil and fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift some acres away from corn. Soybeans, which require less fertilizer and are more forgiving when it comes to drought, are a logical replacement. In general, these higher prices mean a 3-5 percent increase in production costs for most crops, which is very unwelcome after production costs have already risen about 65 percent in the last five years.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Carolina Public Press

Joshua Maples, Mississippi State University

“Rising Fuel And Fertilizer Costs Are Hitting U.S. Producers Differently, With Smaller Operations Feeling the Squeeze”

By: Brownfield – April 9, 2026

“Larger producers likely purchased fuel and fertilizer at the end of 2025. However, I would say a lot of smaller producers don’t do that. And so this is a spot here where we may see a bit of differences between size of operation and the relative impact it has on their operation.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

Richard Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

"Why Tomato Prices Are Rising and Driving Grocery Inflation"

By: Axios - April 10, 2026

"The U.S. imports a large share of its tomatoes, and tariffs are being passed through fairly cleanly. There are few players in the supply chain with the capacity to absorb losses. While prices typically rise this time of year, the current spike is larger than usual."

(Continued...)
Read more on: Axios

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Members in the News: April 6, 2026

2026-04-06T14:06:07.972-05:00

Ricky Volpe, California Polytechnical State University

“Unilever's Sale to McCormick is About More Than Just Mayo”

By: Marketplace – March 31, 2026

“Folks have been increasingly moving towards more prepared and ready-to-eat foods, the perimeter of the supermarket… With especially younger Americans, we've seen brand loyalty eroded in a big way.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Marketplace

Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University

“Annual ISU Farmland Survey Predicts Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Growth”
By: Decorah Leader – January 7, 2026
“Northwest Iowa Continues to Lead State in Farmland Values”
By: KTIV News 4 – January 21, 2026

Miguel Gomez, Cornell University

“The Hidden Cost of Viral Food Trends”

By: Bloomberg – March 29, 2026

“Social media has turned niche foods into global sensations at unprecedented speed, sending demand for products like matcha, ube, acai and Dubai chocolate far beyond their traditional markets… Influencers can create demand spikes that supply chains struggle to meet, exposing farmers and producers to volatility and quality risks. In matcha, the surge has been especially intense.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Bloomberg

Kenneth Burdine, University of Kentucky

“Declines in U.S. Corn Acres Could Pressure Feed Prices and Create Headwinds for the Livestock Sector”

By: Brownfield – March 30, 2026

“Tighter margins were already pointing to increased soybean acres. The recent run up in fertilizer prices have changed this even more. The story to me is that we’re going to see a decrease in corn acres. We’re going to see it shift other crops. It’s a question of how significant that decrease is, and I think it’ll be relatively significant.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Brownfield

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

“As Prices Soar, EPA Greenlights Higher Ethanol Blends in Gasoline”

By: Inside Climate News – March 25, 2026

“I expect relatively slow growth in the U.S. ethanol blend rate from where it is now, about 10.5 percent. But regardless of what the path is, I do think it will be upward, and it’s important to remember that each 10th that the ethanol blend rate increases, that raises domestic U.S. ethanol demand by about 130 million gallons. So even small improvements in the blend rate do matter.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Inside Climate News

David Ortega, Michigan State University

“Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise”

By: New York Times – March 31, 2026

“We’ve been talking about the price of food for the past five years. Grocery store prices are nearly 30 percent more than they were before the Covid-19 pandemic. Particularly for lower-income households, food is a necessity, and they will protect their food budgets, which means they will cut down on other things like eating out.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: New York Times

Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University
Yasin Yildirim, North Dakota State University

“U.S.-China Trade Conflict Harming California Ag”

By: Farm Progress – April 2, 2026

“In aggregate the top 13 California agricultural commodities exported to China fell from an average total annual value of around $1.55 billion in 2024 to $554 million in 2025 – a 64% decline in a single year.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Farm Progress or Imperial Valley Press, ivpressonline.com, News Break, FreshPlaza

Shawn Arita, North Dakota State University

“‘Could Not Come At a Worse Time’: U.S. Farmers Hit Hard By Economic Fallout of Iran War”

By: MS Now – March 27, 2026

“Before the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the global situation of fertilizer was already extremely tight. So this happened in a very, very bad time. Even if the strait were to open tomorrow, Arita said, fertilizer prices won’t soon recover from the lasting impacts of Gulf suppliers halting production amid the war.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: MS Now or Farms.com

Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“How Marriage Markets Drive India's Vanishing Girls Problem”

By: Basis Point Insight – April 3, 2026

“India’s gender imbalance is neither new nor subtle. Skewed sex ratios continue to favour boys, bringing with them consequences that extend beyond demography: a marriage market squeeze, rising trafficking risks, and deeper social strain.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Basis Point Insight

Laura Kalambokidis, University of Minnesota

“Minnesota’s Job Engine Stalled in January”

By: MPR News – April 2, 2026

“We've taken for granted for a while that Minnesota's unemployment rate tends to be below the U.S. unemployment rate. Seeing that change for this one data point, which is January of this year, is an unwelcome development but something that could change. It could reverse.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: MPR News

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