A Dividend Simpleton

SGX Cafe Referral Program

2019-08-19T21:03:00.000+08:00

I know I have not been updating this blog for some time.

Many users do know that I have been using this program SGX Cafe for the longest I have been using, during the trial period etc.

When the founder decided to charge for the service, I felt it was totally worth every penny so I did not hesitate to do so.

My previous post I had described how I felt about the software and how it has tremendously eased my tracking of not just my profit and loss, but a whole lot of ratios, metrics that I can barely even use yet, honestly.

For those who are interested to join SGX Cafe, you may use my referral link to sign up:

https://stocks.cafe/user/tosignup?referral_code=jdhope89

You can still try out using the demo first to see if it is suitable for you. There is absolutely no pressure to join it, but I think Evan the founder of SGX Cafe really deserves some support and I hope we can make it a more sustainable system that many uses.

Do note that the referral program, I do stand to benefit in many ways not just monetary. It allows the SGX Cafe to outreach to others who may not be aware of this program yet and how it can assist them on their route to financial freedom. It will definitely benefit me if I have a system which can finance itself to sustain over the long term, as I really still need it to track my portfolio movements.

Only when it is truly tracked, will you see every motivation to continue to persevere, as every contribution leads to a small but significant step towards your financial freedom.

Till next time!

A Short Update

2017-10-28T19:10:00.001+08:00

Hi all,

Yes, it has been a while since I had posted in this blog and I believe it shall be for a while to come as my responsibilities in my job has increased quite a bit.

So I have decided, for those who wish to continue to keep themselves updated with my portfolio movements may choose to do so by following the gadget I had added at the bottom of my blog. I used SGX cafe for my tracking and I feel it is a tremendously helpful software for average peeps like us looking to track our messy portfolios. It is highly recommended and I am definitely not going to be paid for promoting this. This comes from the bottom of my heart just like how this blog has stayed advertisement-free for all these months, and hopefully years.

The portfolio in SGX cafe will be updated regularly by me as I use it to track my messy portfolio. So it is the most latest update on my portfolio movements, for those who are interested.

Ok, I hope the best for everyone's adventure towards financial freedom, as well as a motivation for others to keep up the good work and push forth, we will get there!

Ganbatte!

Dividend Simpleton

Portfolio Update - May 2017

2017-06-11T17:26:00.001+08:00

*As of 10 June 2017

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Singtel	3.7072	4.74	26.37%
First REIT	1.2736	6.00	9.88%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9317	7.50	9.54%
ParkwayLife REIT	2.4000	5.10	6.14%
M1	2.3600	5.00	6.04%
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	5.18%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	4.88%
Guocoland Limited	1.8150	2.75	4.64%
CDL Hospitality Trust	1.3050	6.80	3.34%
AimsAmp Cap REIT	1.3300	8.40	2.65%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9238	5.70	2.19%
Starhill Global REIT	0.7550	6.25	2.15%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	1.92%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	1.85%
Keppel Corp	6.4300	3.00	1.83%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	0.99%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	9.57%
Total		5.24	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $35,365.02

Total Expected Dividends/month = $154.14

Average Dividend Yield = 5.24%

I have been putting off updating my portfolio for the month of May owing to spending more time on a side business I have recently started to execute. If all goes well, this side business may allow me to increase my warchest amount, which I can use to deploy when time calls for it.

There was a lot of changes in the portfolio in the first part of this month so I have decided to include the changes in this portfolio update.

The month of May - June had been an eventful one for me. I had reduced several poor performing counters, while increasing exposure to rebalance my portfolio.

1) Small stake with Guocoland

Firstly, I have started with a smallish stake in Guocoland at $1.815 a piece. This property counter had been lagging the big caps, namely Capitaland in response to the government relaxing of property cooling measures. It has not really spilled over to the share price of Guocoland yet, but my small stake is more of valuation buying instead of dividend play. This counter has no strong history of paying large dividend yields, so correspondingly a smallish stake.

2) Increased position with Singtel and liquidated Starhub

I have also decided to rebalance my telco portion of my portfolio by exiting Starhub and correspondingly increase my existing position in Singtel. I know right now my portfolio is heavily weighted to Singtel, standing at a hefty 26% in weightage! This does not mean that I have utmost confidence in the future performance of Singtel and its subsidiaries, given their weakest performances particularly Bharti Airtel. Neither does it say that Starhub is likely to do much worse than it would currently. But from the current circumstances, I just feel that Starhub dividends are unsustainable whereas Singtel's dividends would continue to be sustained. The impending IPO of Netlink Trust would not mean a bumper dividend, and I am not expecting anything from Singtel either. The investment thesis on Singtel remains the same as I had previously posted on this before.

3) Completed 2 trades on SIA

I had previously put some money on SIA and waited patiently for the slow rise in share price due to improving sentiments and also speculation due to some analysts claiming that SIA would book a 25% increase in profits. This claims led to some strength in SIA stock, with it reaching a high of $10.80+. Unfortunately, the shock loss reported resulted in a strong gap down in price the following day. It was not surprising given the bruising effect onto the sentiments of traders, whom ran for the exit. The greater the expectations, the greater the disappointment when results do not meet expectations. Unfortunately for me, I failed to take profit. Upon the news reported, I decided to take action and bailed on when the market opened the following day. I still managed to make some kopi money, but it is good enough for me. As the prices eventually reversed to a low of $9.66, well below my entry price. Which I took the opportunity to pick some up again on the rebound at $9.79 a piece and finally exited at $10.08 to round up the 2 trades done on this counter. The share price might continue to rise on speculation on possible privatisation after the strategic review. But I feel the chance to be likely low, though I will not rule out the possibility.

4) Increased position in First REIT

I have increased another tranche of First REIT as the share prices seem to have retraced quite a bit, perhaps due to the change in CEO, which is still of questionable direction and also a substantial stakeholder reducing some of their stake in the REIT. I am not certain why the weakness, but this is just my hypothesis. Depending on this, the CEO will lay of the direction for more inorganic growth in the REIT, which it had been relying on for the past few years to grow. My opinion is that the direction of the new CEO is likely to be the same as the outgoing one as that strategy has proven to have performed well over the decade, so he would likely not to make any changes. Therefore, I took the chance to increase my stake a just little bit more.

5) Made several rebalancing work on my mini portfolio in Standard Chartered

I have managed to initiate Priority Banking status to my bank account and this allowed me no minimum commissions on my trades. With this, I am now likely to just use my Standard Chartered account for my trading and investing activities, given their way much cheaper brokerage rates compared to the others.

With this power on hand, I took the opportunity to clean out my mini portfolio, reducing heavy positions and increasing smaller ones, provided that the share prices are still fair enough to purchase. Some of the REITs I have had already ran up, so I didn't touch them. I sold some like Mapletree Logistics due to the strong run up in prices, and also that I had such a small stake I didn't see the need to increase my positions with. I had also closed/reduced positions in Ascott REIT and Aims Amp REIT, they had been my outsized positions in this mini portfolio and now I had finally been able to take some profits off the table. I increased some positions in Starhill Global, Capitaland Mall Trust and Keppel Corp. I was also thinking of taking profit on Ascendas Hospitality, but I feel that there is still some growth potential and also dividend yield still pretty decent to warrant me holding on. I had been thinking of adding some after XD at $0.76 but my priority banking status had not been initiated yet so that chance had passed.

The overall portfolio I have is not heavily weighted to Singtel and the REITs. The impending rate decision next week may cause some volatility to my portfolio, but nevertheless, I will use that chance to further beef up my portfolio of income stocks.

That is pretty much it. As a result of my rebalancing efforts, I have reduced many of my stocks positions recently. My portfolio size has now reduced to the $35k region, given expensive valuations in REITs, which is the sector I am monitoring to increase positions in. Excluding the telcos, UOB, Keppel and Guocoland, now my entire portfolio is made up of REITs.

I am not saying that REITs are cheap or the way to go at the moment, but I still believe in companies who are mandated to pay back the profits they have earned. Better than owning a share of the company which takes majority of the profits earned to pay large salaries to their family members running the company or "reinvest" into new areas of growth potential. Unfortunately, it is not as easy as it seems. If interest rates increase faster than growth can pick up, this would be a poor environment for REITs. So definitely still better to diversify our nest eggs.

REITs currently form around 45% of my portfolio, and that is set to grow larger should opportunities present itself next week when Janet Yellen makes her decision.

How I managed to save $100k before hitting my 28th birthday

2017-05-17T22:38:00.003+08:00

Now this calls for a celebration. After scrimping and saving and working hard saving everything I could afford, I have finally achieved my target of $100k before the age of 30, with 2 more years left to spare. I shall make full use of these 2 extra years to continue to build my savings and wachest to the next target, which is to achieve $200k in savings and investments before my 32nd birthday.

Why 32nd birthday?

Well, some readers may ask this question, so I might as well answer it first. Well, its more like an extrapolation of my saving abilities. When I started working after graduation at age 25, I took 3 years to achieve 100k in savings and investments, so I had simply added 3 years + additional 1 year buffer for unforeseen circumstances. So voila, the number 32 comes to my mind. Furthermore, I had a headstart after graduation as I had already saved around the region of $20k before starting to work full time.

How I did it

I am going to spoil the surprise by saying there is no magic involved. All it takes is sheer hard work and discipline. I cannot emphasize it any more, discipline in delaying instant gratification goes a long way to achieving your goals before you even know it.

In fact, I didn't even realise I achieved my target until I recently checked on my investments and saving accounts. I had multiple saving accounts which makes it harder to keep track of the total amount I had saved.

My income

I am not going to reveal my income, but I have to say my gross income is definitely less than the median income of the employed people we see in Singapore. Yes, even though I have been working for 3 years, I have not experienced a phenomenal increase in salary to even assist in my saving goals. So this shows that, increasing incomes do matter, but even without it, it is still possible to achieve it if we have the perseverance and focus, we can achieve it.

Investment returns

Next, people may point to my investment growth. Well, my returns coming from my investments are almost similar to the returns we get from the STI. It is simply because my portfolio had been weighted heavily to the local banks and telcos. However, due to the weak telco sector, my returns have been staying even below the performance of the STI, so that also means I didn't make more than say from a regular investor who had invested in the STI ETF at similar times I had entered the market. Thus, it is clear that there was no stellar returns to assist in boosting the growth of my savings towards the $100k level faster than anticipated.

My advice

What I am trying to drive here is, simply sheer perseverance and discipline goes a long way to achieve the savings goal we all have always dreamed of. We always see in sensational facebook feeds of making tons of money from the stock market, and this person relaxing at the beach as a result without lifting a finger. This is definitely a scene which this advertisers would like you to believe to buy their product, be it their hugely expensive courses or products they are looking to sell to you to make that commission. Don't fall for it to make another person reach their savings goals a lot faster!

So I am going to give a simple reminder. Stay focused on your goals. Make it a game, a game you would want to unlock the achievement. The achievement of financial independence, the dream of all financial bloggers out there. It is a lot closer than you think, as you let the power of compounding do its work, while you work hard to save more from your income.

Now you just need some motivation, and I hope this can motivate others seeking for some affirmation of their belief or simply looking for a way to grow their wealth. Stay the course and may we have a good weather ahead!

Portfolio Update - April 2017

2017-05-01T23:24:00.002+08:00

*As of 30 April 2017

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Singtel	3.7000	4.74	15.73%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9317	7.50	8.91%
Starhub	3.4700	4.60	8.30%
SIA	9.8600	2.00	7.86%
First REIT	1.2532	6.38	6.09%
ParkwayLife REIT	2.4000	5.10	5.74%
M1	2.3600	5.00	5.64%
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	4.84%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	4.56%
CDL Hospitality Trust	1.3050	6.80	3.12%
AimsAmp Cap REIT	1.3300	8.40	7.07%
Ascott Residence Trust	0.9700	7.50	5.67%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0822	6.17	2.30%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	1.80%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	1.73%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	0.93%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	0.78%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	8.95%
Total		5.40	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $37,637.27

Total Expected Dividends/month = $169.37

Average Dividend Yield = 5.40%

The month of April had been an eventful one. Mostly a rebalancing of my portfolio by liquidation of oil & gas counters and increasing on certain counters.

1) Ascott REIT Rights Issue

First off, we start on the results of the Ascott REIT rights issue which I had taken part in March. I was allotted 2200 shares from the issue from both the provisional and oversubscription of the rights issue. I am still holding on to the units as the prices have not really recovered strongly, as it still continues to be resisted at the price level which I had previously sold the mother shares. I am looking at the TP of at least higher than $1.15 before I offload the positions. Given the huge resistance at $1.10, it is going to be some time before the price will hit my TP. Nevertheless, at the price issues and taking into account the loss I made when I exited the mother shares, my average price of the REIT is in the region of $0.97, at a comfortable level to get around 6-7% yield and having some exposure to the hospitality sector which is seeing some signs of recovery.

2) Exited position on Keppel Corp

I had exited my position of Keppel Corp at the price of $6.58 a piece. This was after it had announced results which I felt was disappointing. The profits it announced were manly from one-off gains which once taken out of the equation, puts Keppel Corp results to be on the weaker side this time round. Current price hovers at around PB of exactly 1, though the price I exited was far below the $7 plus highs it made during the strong rebound, I felt that the strength in the stock was unsustainable. For the strength in the rally to be sustainable, the results of the company should keep up. In the short term, the poor results could cause some short term weaknesses in the share price, which should it go back down to test the $5 mark, I would be interested to get back into the stock again. Nevertheless, at a 22% profit gained in the last 8 months holding this stock, I felt that it was time to take some profits off the table first. The stock may re-bounce off the oversold position it is in right now, but overall it was a good trading play.

3) Exited position on Sembcorp Industries

In addition, I had exited my position on Sembcorp Industries, after the poor results announced by Sembcorp Marine. Given the lacklustre activities in the rig business, we should expect a long winter ahead for the offshore segment for Sembcorp Industries. As for the utilities segment, which was deemed as the the most defensive business segment of Sembcorp. In this segment, the local power business remained heavily competitive, which adds to the worry that investors should continue to monitor for the results to come on Wednesday. The most promising part of Sembcorp has to be the aggressive inking of deals in the power market in developing markets such as India and Myanmar. Should the investments in these markets start to take off, then we might see some upside in the share price. However, the weaker positions it has in the rig and local power market may continue to cause a drag to its results, though many think that the worst which happened in 2016 was over. In other words, it cannot get any more worse than it is right now. So why the rationale for selling? I still believe that the results will still continue to lag the improvement in fundamentals in the rig and shipbuilding, repair services of Sembcorp Marine. We are beginning to see some uptick in interest in niche areas such as clean energy (e.g, LNG vessels) which may improve business activities for Sembcorp. However, in the bigger picture, the outlook remains bleak as the core business in rigs remains oversupplied. As such, I decided to bite the bullet and take profits first. Should prices correct to my original buy price, then I may assess again to enter again. Nevertheless, at around 25% gain in the 7 months of holding this stock, it was the most rewarding position I have taken so far.

4) Increased position on Singtel

I have increased another tranche of Singtel at $3.73 a piece as the prices started to correct heavily, perhaps due to the spotlight on the high prices paid in the spectrum rights bidding exercise. This brings the overall average price to $3.70 at 15% of my portfolio. This is rather a heavy position, I know, but should Singtel return to $4 then it would prove to be a good trading play. Therefore, I am tipping this to be 50% investment and 50% trading play. Sales proceeds from the oil and gas counters were used to fund this play, and I may continue to add on further weaknesses. On Saturday, I have seen the news that a substantial stakeholder has decided to dispose its stake in Singtel, citing the highly competitive market it is in right now. This news is likely to cause weakness in the share price come Tuesday when the markets open, and the next level to look out for after the $3.70 level breaks would be $3.66 and thereafter $3.60. Should it go lower, I would be waiting below to scoop more shares.

That is pretty much it. As we can see, I have reduced many of my stocks positions recently. Excluding the telcos and SIA, now my entire portfolio is made up of REITs. Not really a diversified portfolio anymore, I know. I may start to reduce some positions on the REITs as valuations now seem on the high side, given that Yellen is likely to continue in her hiking of interest rates, which is likely to cause REITs to fall once again. We have to anticipate this beforehand, and when it does, we can be ready to deploy our funds back in again.

My portfolio has remained the same size as compared to last month, as sale proceeds were used to pay for the new positions added to the portfolio. I would very much want to keep the portfolio in the same size as much as possible, which keeps my investment allocation at 30-40% of my investable funds. The maximum I can tolerate would be 50%, so that I can continue to have ample cash to deploy should opportunities/black swan events arise over the horizon.

Well, now lets welcome May, and May the Force be with you.

Portfolio Update - March 2017

2017-04-01T22:28:00.003+08:00

*As of 31 March 2017

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9317	7.50	9.01%
Starhub	3.4700	4.60	8.39%
SIA	9.8600	2.00	7.95%
Singtel	3.6700	4.74	7.89%
First REIT	1.2532	6.38	6.16%
ParkwayLife REIT	2.4000	5.10	5.80%
M1	2.3600	5.00	5.71%
SembCorp Industries	2.4500	3.25	5.27%
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	4.89%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	4.61%
CDL Hospitality Trust	1.3050	6.80	3.16%
AimsAmp Cap REIT	1.3300	8.40	7.15%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	4.33%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	3.02%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0822	6.17	2.33%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	1.82%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	1.75%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	0.94%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	0.79%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	9.05%
Total		5.19	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $37,215.27

Total Expected Dividends/month = $160.96

Average Dividend Yield = 5.19%

To sum it all, the month of March is a quiet one. This will be a short post to update some changes to the portfolio.

I have increased another tranche of FLT as the prices started to gather steam with the potential target of $1 in sight, which had been proven to be the strong resistance previously. The reasons for investing remain the same as before.

I have also added a position in AimsAMP REIT during a day just before the rate hike decision at $1.33 a piece. It may have looked like a good decision as it turned upwards after hitting the low of $1.325 that day. The management of AimsAMP has done considerably well, against the backdrop of the poor industrial property performances as compared to the other smaller industrial players in the market. This is commendable, by consistently outperforming the market ever since the depths of the GFC. We can compare this by looking at the occupancy rates of AimsAMP versus the general industrial property occupancy rates as below.

That is pretty much it. I will be expecting additions in some units of Ascott REIT into my portfolio come mid April as I have over-subscribed for the rights issue. Since REITs have been on an upward trend ever since the announcement of the interest rate hike, it is good to add as much of the this discounted units as possible. I had previously taken a loss because of the XR share price movement and I am looking to reduce the cost price of the new units as much as I can. If the remote chance where I would be allotted more than I have expected happens, I may consider selling some to lock in some profits. Of course, this is assuming the mother share prices stays this resilient. Otherwise, I am happy holding out for close to 8% yield, perhaps until they call for more cash again, which is very likely with this year.

My portfolio has steadily gotten bigger, and it would be larger soon enough with more Ascott REIT units coming in. Perhaps, I should take the chance in this rally to do some spring cleaning.

Well, let see how it goes first.

Ascott REIT Rights - Another capital-raising exercise by issuing new shares

2017-03-11T23:42:00.000+08:00

Recently, Ascott REIT hogged the headlines in the substantial rights exercise it was offering. It was offering 29 new shares for every existing 100 shares held. The money raised would be used to fund the acquisition of 2 Germany properties with the similar name of Citadines as well as Singapore's Ascott Orchard.

The last time I was involved in this REIT was quite some time back when I was able to use Standard Chartered to "play" a few 100 shares at a time and trade on price movements. It was subsequently liquidated when Standard Chartered cut short the "no minimum commission" party. Pity, but based on management's effectiveness over the years, it was really poor as it showed that the interest of the management was not aligned to that of the shareholders. The intended target was clearly mentioned; they intend to raise the value of the Assets Under Management (AUM) to $6 billion by 2017. Even with the current acquisitions, they are short of $700 million. We would probably expect some more cash raising activities if they intend to achieve this target by end 2017.

What this is telling me is that they will probably go on a shopping spree to buy some property, whether or not it would be of interest of shareholders would be a question mark. Gearing would be reduced by this rights exercise, but it is still near to the uncomfortable 40% gearing.

Ok, so some readers must be at this point wondering why I am writing a post on this REIT, after a long hiatus from writing posts other stuff other that my monthly regular portfolio updates.

Now, fundamentally, I do not like the REIT. Or rather, I do not like how the management is running the REIT. They don't seem to have the shareholders in mind and it really shows in their actions of cash raising exercises over a short span of a few months. While they may have the giants Capitaland and Ascott backing, they seem to be a "dumping ground" for Ascott to divest their properties.

What really caught my eye was the substantial rights exercise. After the share prices reacted negatively to the announcement of the rights exercise, I bought some units during the consolidation phase at $1.115 each using the Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) platform. And then, when the units went XR yesterday, I sold all of them at a price of $1.095 each, which means I made a loss of around 2 cents excluding commissions.

From the rights exercise, I will be entitled to 29 shares for every 100 shares I hold, which means I will have to cough out more money, around 1/3 of my deployed capital to avoid the dilutive effects of the rights exercise. But that is set to change because I have already liquidated my position, albeit at a loss. But the good news is, I have the sale proceeds to apply for the rights, and it is enough for me to apply for further excess rights to up till 2 times of my entitled amount without requiring me to cough out any more capital.

So if I do my maths well, if I were to just collect my entitled rights, my average cost price would be just around the $1 region, even after accounting for the loss I made from the trade I made in the mother shares yesterday. Based on the closing price on Friday, I would be in the black of around 9 cents a piece. This is of course, assuming that the price maintains this price level until the new rights shares are issued in 31 March. However, we would have to expect some sort of "overhang" on the units, as how the analysts love to use, because of the substantial rights issue.

And if I were to apply for a further excess rights of a similar size to my entitled amount, and manage to get it, my average cost would slip to around $0.96. Because the rights issue price is $0.919, if I were to apply and get 2 times further excess rights shares equivalent to my entitled amount, the price would be further reduced to $0.94. So with every same injection of capital into the rights exercise, the cost price would decrease at a decreasing rate. But this all is based on the assumption that I get all the excess rights that I apply for, which is likely not the case.

Because I used the Standard Chartered account, the rights deadline would be shortened and I would need to inform that well in advance to ensure my instructions are executed as planned. I have experienced previous rights exercises with Standard Chartered and I have been pleased with their performance so far. Keppel DC REIT was the last one I did with SCB and I was pleased to know that I did not even have to pay for the $2 atm charge had I bought the shares into my CDP account.

This is simple to understand why.

Standard Chartered is the designated nominee account holding all shares of parties like myself using the SCB account to buy shares. Because all the shares held by different parties using SCB is collated together in one SCB nominee account, they are able to make the rights application in a single name, which results of the $2 charge spread across the many parties using SCB, to the point that the charge is almost minimal, it is negligible! Please note that this is purely my understanding and I do not know what actually is the reason why. So I would be really grateful if there are readers who knows the inside workings of the bank to correct me if I am wrong.

Furthermore, I had used Standard Chartered because it is still the cheapest brokerage in town. This is because to minimise my average cost of each units, it is very crucial to keep fees to a minimum.

And that is it. I am now just waiting for the notice from SCB to arrive and I am probably just going to use all the sale proceeds to apply for as many rights shares as I can get.

Wish me luck!

Portfolio Update - Febuary 2017

2017-03-04T17:05:00.002+08:00

*As of 1 March 2017

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Starhub	3.4700	4.60	9.28%
SIA	9.8600	2.00	8.79%
Singtel	3.6700	4.00	8.72%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9267	7.50	7.43%
First REIT	1.2525	6.75	6.70%
ParkwayLife REIT	2.4000	5.10	6.42%
M1	2.3600	5.00	6.31%
SembCorp Industries	2.4500	3.00	5.82%
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	5.41%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	5.09%
CDL Hospitality Trust	1.3050	6.80	3.49%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	4.79%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	3.34%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0822	6.17	2.57%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	2.01%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	1.93%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.04%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	0.87%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	10.00%
Total		4.83	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $33,666.87

Total Expected Dividends/month = $135.50

Average Dividend Yield = 4.83%

It is already going into the third month of 2017 and I am surprised I had been busy buying into a market which was flirting with its highest since 2015. This will be a short post to update some changes to the portfolio.

Some highlights of some recent transactions:

1) Closed out position in OCBC

OCBC had reported lacklustre results for the last quarter of 2016. In fact, on hindsight, it has performed the worst amongst the 3 biggest local banks in Singapore. The stock fell the hardest on the news, and I did initially have a TP of $10 to offload the rest of my OCBC stocks. But given the results, I reduced my TP to $9.50, which I eventually took profit at that price a few weeks back. The reason of selling is based on much higher PEs and that it has almost reached the highs attained in 2015. I would definitely be happy to pick up OCBC stocks should prices revert lower. As for my other bank stock, UOB, I had decided to keep the remaining stakes to wait and see if the slightly better results can take the stock higher to retest the previous highs of $24 back in 2015. If it doesn't, I am happy to hold the remaining local bank stock I have.

2) Initiated new position in SIA

The only airline stock listed in Singapore was the only stock I felt had some value in a rapidly rising market in Singapore. It had went the other way while share prices of oil rigs, banks other STI constituents were rising in tandem to the index. This, of course, should not be the only reason why one should invest in a particular stock. I had a positive feeling on the recent results of SIA, despite it still being lacklustre as expected. The management of SIA had a proven track record of well-executed navigation in a very challenging airline market. I don't expect the airline market to suddenly become lucrative, neither do I expect huge catalysts to lift this stock. Instead, I am looking to use the funds from taking profits on the bank stocks to put into a undervalued stock.

The share price of SIA technically almost reached the support of $9.60, but rebounded from $9.71 on expectation of poor results. I had been patiently waiting for a correction but it had successfully consolidated around the $9.80s region. Therefore, I initiated a position at an average price of $9.86 per share. I am an income investor, and SIA historically has never being regular or consistent with its dividends, so I had put in a conservative 2% yield on this stock. If the stock somehow manages to trade to the top of the trading band, I may look to exit this position, otherwise, I am content to sit on this and get paid while I wait.

3) Initiated position in Parkway Life REIT

This is definitely not a value play. At $2.40, it is trading at a high PB ratio of almost 1.5, it is definitely expensive as a REIT. Then why did I buy it? Well, it has very good fundamentals. Warren Buffet believed in buying a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. What qualified as good fundamentals to me?

Source: Parkway Life REIT’s earnings presentations

The tale above summaries all we need to know for Parkway Life REIT, need I say more?

Sure enough, the fundamentals have deteriorated year on year. But there should be no cause for concern. Its extremely defensive business puts it in good stead in many more years to come. We continue to expect the ageing population to persist in Japan and Singapore for the next few years. This is enough to sustain demand for its core business. We have rising interest rates to contend with in future, but the low cost of debt and high interest cover should be enough buffer for the next few years at least. It should be noted that 99% of its interest rates have been hedged, which is important in a climate of rising interest rates. Still, we need to keep track of the interest rates once the hedges are renewed.

4) Increased position on Fraser Logistics and Industrial Trust

Increased another tranche of FLT when prices started retracing, at $0.94 a piece. I am happy with the recent results, though boosted by the recent acquisitions from the sponsor pipeline. The reasons for investing remain the same. Should prices continue to trend lower amid talks on higher interest rates in the US, you can be pretty sure I would be waiting at the lower price levels.

Now, I will stay patient. My portfolio has definitely gotten bigger despite selling some core stocks. I think I am getting too greedy in a rising market, that does not sound good. Nevertheless, I am fairly confident in the prospects of the businesses I have invested in.

But it doesn't hurt to have a bit of luck isn't it? Lets hope for some good luck thrown inside too then. (:

Portfolio Update - January 2017

2017-02-04T20:05:00.000+08:00

*As of 31 January 2017

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Starhub	3.4700	4.60	10.61%
Singtel	3.6700	4.00	9.98%
First REIT	1.2525	6.75	7.66%
M1	2.3600	5.00	7.22%
SembCorp Industries	2.4500	3.00	6.66%
UOB Bank	17.5200	4.00	6.19%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	5.85%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	5.83%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9200	7.00	5.63%
CDL Hospitality Trust	1.3050	6.80	3.99%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	5.48%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	3.82%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0822	6.17	2.94%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	2.30%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	2.21%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.19%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	1.00%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	11.44%
Total		4.94	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $29,574.09

Total Expected Dividends/month = $121.12

Average Dividend Yield = 4.94%

At the close of 2016, analysts and many were predicting the poor economic climates impending for Singapore. In addition, as we look back to history, the stock market has more likely to do badly in the years ending with the number seven, remember Black Monday in 1987, the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the great GFC in 2007? This all did not help the already gloomy forecasts set by economists for the year ahead in 2017. What do you guys think?

For me, one thing is for certain, if history were to repeat itself, I will be finding myself busy buying more stocks. However, it is going the opposite way right now, with STI flirting with the highest it had been in 2 years, and it was one of the best performing index in the first month of 2017. So I guess its always funny how being contrarian has been so fruitful for 2016 and possibly 2017.

And I thought I would not be doing anything for the few months to come and yet I have already started in the first month of 2017.

The share prices of the banks had been chugging along higher ever since the surprise election of Donald Trump. The potential of easing policies for financial institutions as well as benefits from a more hawkish Fed had seen bank prices hitting the highest since 2015.

Seeing this, I have reduced my bank positions in OCBC and UOB by half, at $9.38 and $21.10 respectively. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that banks are overvalued, but I felt that in the near term there is limited upside for banks given the still weak economic climates for businesses. PE ratios for the banks are still below 15, much better than the other blue chips which make up the rest of the STI. However, the rally in banks had been overdone, and most of the the counters are already in overbought region. I retained half of the bank shares because they had been the better performers of my portfolio, and I wanted at least half of my winners to continue, should they continue to do so.

As a result of this reduction, my portfolio value has shrunk to less than $30k. The largest position is now Starhub, which turns out to be one of the biggest laggards of my portfolio, along with M1.

Starhub had recently reported poorer results and EPS has fallen to almost 3 cents, which is almost similar to M1's EPS. The result was clearly poor in my view, and even though they had stated the dividends will be reduced to 4 cents from 2017 onwards, I think even 4 cents is not sustainable. We do not now what will happen should the 4th telco start competing full force, but it seems like it is already hitting this 2 telcos hard. In my view, I still think M1 offers better value than Starhub. However, the price of Starhub has been pretty weak lately, which I have failed to reduce my position in the small rebound it had in January. There is still 2 ways around this, they are already mentioned in my previous post:

1) Reduce positions in the telcos directly OR

2) Increase other positions to reduce the telcos exposure percentage in my portfolio.

Lets see how I eventually decide to handle this. Meanwhile, recently the Fed decided not to raise interest rates this time round, so the prices of REITs has moved somewhat upwards. However, many analysts and market watchers believe it is only just the beginning. With a saturated market in Singapore, Singapore REITs have been increasingly trying to increase their footprint overseas in a bid to boost the distributions it receives. However, increasing interest rates are likely to put a lid on the upside on REITs. The only way for REITs to continue outperforming is if the REIT has a larger pipeline of overseas properties to expand using debt, and the rate of increase in distributions must be greater than the increase in debt costs the REIT have to take into account. In an environment of rising interest rates, even having fixed rates is not going to prevent the REIT from having to pay for the higher rates as eventually they will have to pay them once the fixed rate period expires.

So do we or not still buy REITs?

Well it depends, of course. If you feel the specific REIT has growth potential to outdo the increased costs it has to bear in future, then yes please do. If not, save the money for a big BEAR market.

Don't know where to put the money?

Then just open the CIMB Fastsaver account, and that is provided if you have already maxed out the OCBC360 account, i.e. > 60k. For me, I am intending to open one for my excess funds to prepare an expansion of my warchest.

And then what?

Wait, of course. While you wait, make sure there are stocks paying you dividends while you wait. Don't just sit around doing nothing with money rotting in the bank. Basic risk allocation obviously applies to different individuals in all situations, so please plan wisely before going to do something rash.

Good Luck!

Portfolio Update - December 2016

2017-01-05T20:47:00.000+08:00

*As of 31 December 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	17.8600	4.00	11.05%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	10.44%
Starhub	3.4700	5.70	9.47%
Singtel	3.6700	4.00	8.91%
First REIT	1.2525	6.75	6.84%
M1	2.3600	5.50	6.44%
SembCorp Industries	2.4500	3.00	5.95%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	5.20%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9200	7.00	5.02%
CDL Hospitality Trust	1.3050	6.80	3.56%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	4.89%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	3.41%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0822	6.17	2.63%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	2.05%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	1.97%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.06%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	0.89%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	10.21%
Total		4.84	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $32,964.37

Total Expected Dividends/month = $136.52

Average Dividend Yield = 4.97%

Equities for the month December continued their rally from the Trump election into the middle of the month. The rally ended with heavy profit taking, particularly in the banks which were thought to be the strongest beneficiaries from increase in interest rates and Trump policies.

The strengthening USD was a result of the Fed being expected to raise interest rates for the first time this year, which they did, but what was surprising was the conviction in increasing interest rates at a faster pace than the market was expecting. But with so much uncertainty surrounding Janet Yellen's position once Donald Trump takes the White House, her words may not carry much weight in the end.

In this month of expected interest rates, it was my favourite moment. That is because the shock from the expected higher interest rates has caused the price of interest rate sensitive stocks to correct much further. This includes REITs which I was closely monitoring, and eager to add more to my portfolio.

In December, I added 2 REITs, First REIT and CDL Hospitality Trust.

Around the middle of December, First REIT dropped to its lowest in the last 6 months. At $1.255, I picked up some units which was lower than the purchase prices by Ronnie, one of the directors of First REIT, which I felt was a vote of confidence in the REIT. I was considering averaging down my position in Capitamall Trust vs First REIT, but I chose the latter because of its exposure to the healthcare segment which was deemed more defensive than the retail sector.

I was ready to purchase more units in Capitamall Trust should prices correct to $1.855, which my order had been in queue for the past month but it eventually did not trigger, much to my dismay.

In addition, I decided to purchase CDL Hospitality Trust to increase my hospitality segment in my portfolio. I decided not to increase my position in the Ascendas Hospitality because I felt the price of the REIT was more expensive compared to CDL, even though Ascendas was offering higher yields. Finally, I decided to go with past management performance on this one.

This is a short post, and I will end it off here. It has been a very busy month even though December is always considered a lull period, but not for me. Many of the people I know have already collected their bonuses, which I suppose some would have used them to put it back into the market, probably partially the reason why the markets rallied like it did in December. However, it was not so great for me, because I did not receive any bonus this year ever since I made the career switch out of the oil and gas industry. So much of the funds used are mainly from the salary I saved from the past month.

At the time of writing, the prices of REITs has increased in value, along with a general increase in stock prices, which is probably due to the Capricorn effect, for those who believe in it. I am probably not going to do anything, now that prices has risen.

Stay safe and invest wisely!

Portfolio Update - November 2016

2016-12-04T19:34:00.005+08:00

*As of 30 November 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	17.8600	4.00	11.88%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	11.22%
Starhub	3.4700	5.70	10.19%
Singtel	3.6700	4.00	9.58%
M1	2.3600	5.50	6.93%
SembCorp Industries	2.4500	3.00	6.39%
Capitaland Mall Trust	1.9050	5.80	5.59%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust	0.9200	7.00	5.40%
First REIT	1.2500	6.75	3.67%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	5.25%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	3.67%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0822	6.17	2.82%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	2.21%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	2.12%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.14%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	0.96%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	10.98%
Total		4.84	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $30,660.37

Total Expected Dividends/month = $123.66

Average Dividend Yield = 4.84%

Now, we have yet another surprise in the markets this month, when the US elected the wildcard in all these time, now we have 2 surprises this year, Brexit and now a Trump victory.

The reaction of the markets was deja vu to Brexit, falling initially and quickly rallying afterwards. This is surprising to many, including me. I had believed that a Trump victory would destroy existing trade relations with the world, negatively affecting the corporate profits of companies depending on this. But the markets chose to focus on Trump's potentially fiscally stimulating policies, and his growth focused policies to drive inflation higher.

As a result, we see the usual beneficiaries like defence companies surging as a result, as well as financial stocks like banks who would benefit from higher interest rates as a result of higher inflation.

And just recently, oil and gas related stocks got a boost from the OPEC decision to cut production. Although we know of the tendency of OPEC members to cheat on this agreement, this is a first step in the process of cutting production since 2008. It shows commitment to control prices, though it will take years for current demand to consume the existing supply. In the longer term, it is positive to oil stocks as it provides a floor to prices for oil.

As a result, I have seen my portfolio rise in tandem as it has been heavy on banking and oil and gas stocks despite the drag from the telcom segment.

As the threat from yet another hike in the interest rate approaches, I have been busy snapping up REIT counters. Now, it has boosted my portfolio invested amount to $30k, a rise of $6k in a month, mainly from purchases of REIT counters. Should REIT counters continue to decline further, I may consider to load up further.

Some notable REIT counters purchases include Capitaland Mall Trust and Fraser Logistic Trust.

I like Capitaland Mall Trust because of the management effectiveness from managing over a decade and provided investors with a steady and sustainable stream of income. It is also the largest in terms of capitalisation for the retail REITs. I believe that the dividends paid are sustainable for many years to come, and patient investors will be rewarded. However, should it retest the $2.20 resistance again, I will not rule out offloading and trading off the price movement. Historically, Capitaland Mall Trust has always been a BB plaything, so it has been consistently trading around a price range.

In addition, I have initiated a position with Fraser Logistics and Industrial Trust (FLT). My main reason for entering would be the fundamentals of the REIT. It has a low gearing, currently less than 30% even after recently exercising the 3rd call option, reasonable all-in average interest rate, fair interest coverage ratio and a long WALE. The biggest advantage it has over the local industrial REITs is the presence of the significant freehold properties it holds. Theoretically, it would mean being able to generate income perpetually, but that is based on the assumption that there are tenants leasing out in the first place. Nevertheless, with reasonable rental escalation of 2-3%, I would bet on the fundamentals of this REIT. However, it is likely the pace of increase in its distributions would be slow and gradual, but still better off than having negative trending distributions.

And there we have it, I have reached the highest portfolio value I have invested. At around $30k, and an average yield of 4.84%, it means I get to receive $123 a month. My target of 1k per month is still a while off, but this is a step in the right direction. Positively thinking, to achieve $1k per month of distributions, it would mean around 10 times of the current vested amount, a whooping $300k. Well, seems far, but I will push on and hopefully achieve this by my 35th birthday, just in time to buy a flat if I'm still single then!

Till next time!

Portfolio Update - October 2016

2016-11-06T15:23:00.000+08:00

*As of 31 October 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	17.8600	4.00	15.25%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	14.40%
Starhub	3.4700	5.70	13.07%
M1	2.3600	5.50	8.89%
SembCorp Industries	2.4500	3.00	8.20%
First REIT	1.2500	6.75	4.71%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	6.74%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	4.71%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	2.83%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	2.72%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0102	6.50	1.69%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.46%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	1.23%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	14.09%
Total		4.70	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $23,892.23

Total Expected Dividends/month = $93.58

Average Dividend Yield = 4.7%

We now enter a phase where the Presidential Elections are taking its effect on the markets. Clearly, the markets prefer Hillary Clinton as the default president to win it, as when the email scrutiny began, markets began to fall apart.

And once again, the Fed is now on the verge of looking to increase interest rates again. The most likely period is looking like in December. Well, in fact, I am looking forward to this December, and it is not because of the festivities. The threat of interest rate hikes will definitely have an impact on REITs and other interest rate sensitive instruments. And it is just about right that I am still currently on the lookout to increase my REIT exposure. In addition, December would also mean bonuses which can be used to increase these positions should the time calls for it.

As my name suggests, I am a dividend guy, so I am only looking for stocks which pay dividends. No dividends, not in my watchlist. However, there are some stocks having their dividends threatened by cuts due to the industry they are in and I am watching this carefully and taking action if necessary. Readers know I have taken a substantial positions on telcos recently, and I am monitoring it carefully.

To reduce exposure, there are 2 ways to do it.

1) Decrease the specific position.
2) Increase positions from other industries, aka diversifying.

I am more in favour of the latter. My reason is that I am young and able to take more risks now. Also, given the power of compounding on dividend paying counters, time in the market matters, not timing the market. Money in the bank is good to have, particularly for warchest purposes. But too much money in the bank gets rotted away by inflation, so there is some balance to be achieved.

So what did I do this month?

This month, I added Sembcorp Industries at a price of $2.45. It is part of the step of diversifying as well as what I felt was value in the markets. I had been eyeing Sembcorp ever since the oil plunge back in 2014, and had even initiated a position at around $4 plus back then. I have to admit some luck in exiting without much losses before the huge plunge, but fundamentals had changed for the worse which led to me exiting. Now, fundamentals are still bleak, and I am not looking to make a quick buck from this. This is definitely a very long term position as I do not forsee the oil and energy market rebouncing strongly in the next 2-3 years. This however was bought based on value alone, as it can be considered we are buying the utilities business and getting Sembcorp Marine almost free. In the meantime, dividends are now a little more sustainable, and I like to get paid while I wait for the upcycle.

Meantime, results from the telcos have been fairly poor. We can only imagine what they are going through now. The 4th telco is barely even out in the market yet, and Starhub and M1 have already started out with weaker profits, both reporting falls in incomes of around 20%. Now, with this 4th telco coming into an already saturated market should they do so, I can only imagine the stiff competition and market they will face. Without a strong backer, it is very difficult for this 4th telco to survive in the Singapore market. And definitely we will not see the incumbents sitting there doing nothing. They will go all out to defend their market share. What eventually will happen however, your guess is as good as mine.

These past few months have seen me increasing positions, and now it has almost reached to the $24k mark and set to increase should the REITs become compelling enough.

My target of achieving $100k by 30th birthday remains on track. To protect the majority of my capital, most of my cash will remain in saving accounts. I will continue to prudently invest in smallish amounts, while consistently saving up the rest. My expenditure had been pretty high lately, given the long holidays I had just been to, as well as the frequent outings lately. In fact, baring any unforeseen circumstances, I should see myself achieving the target by my 28th birthday, which I definitely would be happy if that happens.

Lets see how things turn out then.

Portfolio Update - September 2016

2016-10-02T17:27:00.000+08:00

*As of 30 September 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	16.61%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	15.68%
Starhub	3.4700	5.70	14.24%
M1	2.3600	5.50	9.68%
First REIT	1.2500	6.75	5.13%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	7.35%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	5.13%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	3.08%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	2.97%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0102	6.50	1.84%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.59%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	1.34%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	15.35%
Total		4.85	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $21,932.23

Total Expected Dividends/month = $88.64

Average Dividend Yield = 4.85%

And we know the cycle repeats again, the Fed has reverted to not increasing interest rates again. Now you get the picture, we go from fear after fear and then the resulting volatility in the markets. What we can do is to capitalise on this volatility to buy into companies with sustainable cash flow or growth depending on the intention of investing into that particular security.

So what did I do this time?

My portfolio remains quiet as ever as markets still remain significantly higher than the low we witnessed in January. There is no reason for me to invest into anything if the prices are still higher than my last buy price. That is the mechanism that I will live by and stay disciplined to continue to do so.

This month, I added M1 as it has revisited the lows of when I had previously entered using my SCB account back in March. I had since divested it, but I felt that level was a reasonable valuation. My 2 cents on the 4th telco saga is that it is overrated. Come on, we can't expect the other telcos to just sit back and relax and allow the 4th telco to grow into a threat right? And even if it grows, it may not reach the maturity similar to the existing telcos within the next 5 years or so.

Yet, I like to compare this situation to the threats faced by the local banks back in 1999, when the Singapore government liberalised the banking system to allow greater access to foreign banks into the domestic market. This was intended to increase the competitiveness of our local banks. So clearly in comparison, it is A LOT worse than the 4th telco, in fact this allowed access for many foreign banks to expand into our shores.

So this begs the question, did our local banks die off?

Well, the fact we still see them around proves otherwise. Looking at the share prices of the 3 local banks, in fact, their share prices went the complete opposite way where all naysayers believed. They took up positions within the top 20 strongest banks in the world. Now that is a feat.

Now it doesn't need a genius to see the connection I am trying to prove here. I do not think it will be terrible for the telcos here, in fact they may face competition and this may eat into their profit margins. But this forces them to rethink and work out on cost competitive ways to stay in business. Sometimes, we need something threatening to force a change for the better.

Overall, the addition of M1 increases the exposure to the 'income' stocks segment in my portfolio, as I had intended to. The 'income' segment has now exceeded the 'general' stocks segment, but I will continue to buy into income companies should they reach price levels which are attractive to me. I am looking at an 'income' stock right now, but it is still in the early stages and I would prefer to continue monitoring before taking any action first. The identity of this stock will only be made known once I had successfully added it into my portfolio.

And so that is all for the month of September. Upcoming events such as the US presidential elections, the impending rate hike in December may cause some volatility in the markets, so stay safe and let the power of compounding to do its work. Let us see how things unravel from here.

Chaos.

Portfolio Update - August 2016

2016-09-07T21:58:00.000+08:00

*As of 7 September 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	18.39%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	17.37%
Starhub	3.4700	5.70	15.77%
First REIT	1.2500	6.75	5.68%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	8.13%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	5.68%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	3.41%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	3.28%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0102	6.50	2.04%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	1.76%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	1.48%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	17.00%
Total		4.78	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $19,884.33

Total Expected Dividends/month = $78.90

Average Dividend Yield = 4.78%

Once again, the fears of a premature rate hike by the Fed caused markets to correct again, which kind of feels like totally cyclic as we have witness the same old tale repeating many times over. Recently, we heard of the surprising news of Swiber going bankrupt and the focus was on the bank loans exposed to particularly on the oil and gas sector. Heavy correction of the banks followed but I have been holding back on adding more on the banks given my already heavy exposure to them.

The month of August also meant the commencement of Standard Chartered Bank's new policy on the minimum commission levied on non-priority customers like myself. So August turned out to be a month of zero transactions. That's right, you heard me, big fat ZERO. This is surprising given my trigger happiness in trading when SCB still had no minimum commission. The new policy has now reduced my chances in being able to average down my costs. Furthermore, after doing my calculations, it was much more worth the money to use my regular brokerage account to add to positions since it almost costs the same, with the exception that I am able to put the shares into the CDP. The only limit is the maximum of 900 shares purchased to qualify for the $10 promotional brokerage. 900 shares even for low priced REITs is still too much for me to be considered a 'nibble' per se.

I have included an update of my portfolio up to today, 7 September, because I had been late in my updates. And also because I have recently made a transaction using my regular brokerage. I have purchased some shares of Starhub at a price of $3.47. Of course, now the price have fallen below after I caught a falling knife buying just after the bad news of the many competitors vying to be the next 4th telco. The good news is that I have now managed to diversify away from the banking sector by reducing its exposure substantially.

I had secretly hoped for the news of the possible rate hike to cause REITs to go into a discount like what happened earlier this year, but surprisingly they remained ever so resilient. It was as if telling me, "Nah, we don't believe they will hike the rates lah." The REITs stubbornly held their values except for the hospitality REITs which took some beating in response to the news of hundreds of Zika cases in Singapore. And so, I didn't purchase any REITs this time round, much to my disappointment. At least, I could classify Starhub as an income stock, although if it cannot sustain its dividend payout then it may cease to be a 'real' income stock. As of now, the weightage of stocks vs income stocks have become on par and I have achieved my immediate target for now. As the stocks segment would most likely get cheaper faster, my focus would have to be in increasing my exposure to income stocks as of now.

And so that is all for the month of August/a bit of September. As the immediate target of making stocks and income stocks weightage equal has been fulfilled, I may just be content of sitting around and doing nothing until something compelling rocks me off my seat. So don't be surprised of many months of inactivity.

Chaos.

Portfolio Update - July 2016

2016-07-31T14:08:00.002+08:00

*As of 31 July 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	21.83%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	20.62%
First REIT	1.2500	6.75	6.74%
Keppel Corp	5.3700	5.00	9.66%
SPH	3.7500	5.00	6.74%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	4.05%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	3.90%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0102	6.50	2.42%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	2.09%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	1.76%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	20.18%
Total		4.61	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $16,749.29

Total Expected Dividends/month = $64.34

Average Dividend Yield = 4.61%

The rally in the markets after BREXIT is now showing signs of weakening. Given the sudden plunge last Friday, it is looking like another opportunity to add to my portfolio. I have already taken advantage of the weaknesses of the markets to make 2 significant additions to my portfolio.

The main transactions this month if you have noticed from my portfolio is the liquidation of Saizen REIT and using the proceeds and more cash injected to buy into SPH and more Keppel Corp. As such, my total invested amount has increased to almost $17k, bumping up my expected monthly dividend to almost $65. The dividend yield remains a low end of 4.61% owing to the larger positions in the banks and STI ETF. I am currently looking to add to positions away from banking counters if possible, and addition of SPH and Keppel Corp is a step to diversify my holdings, though still heavily weighted to the banks at this moment in time.

Keppel Corporation has been in my holdings as more of the trading play if possible, but if I am not able to make the trading plan then it is still a nice blue chip to have given weaker valuations at the moment. Now that the SCB rule of minimum commissions have kicked into effect starting next Monday, I am unlikely to add to positions unless the valuations are very compelling. I might even consider moving positions to CDP, but I would prefer to wait and watch as brokerage charges in SCB is still slightly cheaper than CDP. I might as well accumulate more before transferring over since the charges for transferring is fixed at $10.70 per transfer per share.

SPH is more of an income play for myself, and an alternative income stock to the REITs I currently hold. At the moment, REITs are trading near their highs ever since speculation that the US Fed is unlikely to raise rates caused a sudden gravitation towards bonds and REITs. SPH share price plunged back to close to its low after it reported very much weaker results which poses some risks to the current dividend payout to being cut. This puts the scenario of having the current 5% yield I am looking at reducing to 3-4% is to a very much possible outcome given that the current payout is squeezed to a 100%. Still, I am fairly positive on its property segment, also a reason why I am invested in SPH REIT. The media segment has been a drag for a couple of years already and it is up to the management of SPH to seek out ways to improve its income stream away from media and advertising.

Saizen REIT has been liquidated because of the risk coming from the proposed transaction they announced earlier the past few weeks. If they do proceed with the transaction, it is likely they will stay listed, which I believe might be a disappointment to the speculators believing in the actual liquidation of the REIT. Moreover, the share price now is very close to the liquidation value of 1.172 - 1.056 = $0.116. I am willing to take the profits off this counter given the risks of a falling out of the liquidation procedures. The money in this counter would also technically not contribute to any income as at the moment Saizen REIT is an empty shell company, and I would rather use the money to deploy into income stocks rather than waiting for news which may not produce significant upside. In other words, the risk now is now larger than the reward to hold Saizen REIT. And so, sayonara Saizen REIT, it has been nice speculating with you for the past few months.

And so that is all for the month of July. The main focus for me in the coming months is to add to diversification away from banks and to income stocks wherever possible. I don't foresee REITs falling back down anytime soon, but I am eagerly anticipating the time when it does, because you can be pretty sure I would be busy picking up REITs to boost my income segment of my portfolio.

Chaos.

Portfolio Update - June 2016

2016-07-06T13:49:00.000+08:00

*As of 30 June 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
UOB Bank	18.2150	4.00	24.10%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	22.75%
First REIT	1.2500	6.75	7.44%
Keppel Corp	5.3600	6.00	7.09%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3523	6.15	4.47%
SPHREIT	0.9293	5.80	4.30%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0102	6.50	2.67%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6991	8.03	2.31%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9800	7.40	1.94%
Saizen REIT*	0.0645	0.00	0.64%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	22.27%
Total		4.61	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $15,177.93

Total Expected Dividends/month = $58.07

Average Dividend Yield = 4.61%

This month, the only thing we kept hearing in the news was the BREXIT saga. Nobody expected it to happen, as they did not believe the Brits would be so stupid to risk exiting the EU. But they did. And so the mayhem.

Just nice that the mayhem happened when my portfolio has been drastically reduced in size ever since the wonderful SCB has decided to charge minimum commissions. I have been busy liquidating stocks which I had no intention to keep for the long term and decided on a few to focus on accumulating more shares. This has resulted in a suddenly very much reduced variety of stocks in my portfolio, as we can see for the month of June.

Despite the reduction in variety, the portfolio value actually increased quite a bit to $15k, up from $13k in May. I took the opportunity of BREXIT to accumulate more shares which I had decided to focus on. However, dividend yield for the portfolio has reduced as I liquidated positions on the weaker counters which tended to have higher yields. The month of June also seen me using SGXcafe to record my transactions and dividends. It is truly a useful portfolio monitoring software which provides real time (end of every day) profit/loss of your portfolio, dividends generated from inception, etc all from just regularly and diligently recording your purchases and sales. I am still recording my portfolio using the traditional excel sheet, as I love to see my portfolio in the format I have created.

So in summary, some of the noteworthy transactions made in June are:

1) The average down in UOB, I bought more after BREXIT, as I felt the bank is largely unaffected by Britain's exit, as its focus of operations have been largely in the SEA region.

2) Bought some First REIT with my traditional broker, adding them into my CDP account.

3) Increased position on Keppel Corp with SCB. If prices were to surprise on the upside, I may consider to sell partially or all as a trading play. If not, I would simply hold for dividends.

4) Took on increased positions on all REIT counters I am focusing on for my SCB portfolio, with the exception of Saizen REIT, which I expect them to delist soon and be liquidated on their own, needing no action from me.

And so that is all for the month of June.

Standard Chartered no min commissions NO MORE!!

2016-06-04T15:39:00.000+08:00

I have not been writing posts other than my monthly portfolio updates lately owing to busy schedules and change in jobs scopes. I have recently moved on from my oil and gas job to another industry, which meant that my monthly contribution to the employee stock purchase is no more. It is a real pity because it was a pretty good scheme which allows you to DCA my own company shares. Most times we would be making money because it is a US company and with the US market flirting with its previous highs again, it doesn't take a genius to subscribe for them shares. Oh well, its time to move on, I should not just think of staying at a company just because I want collect their shares! Unfortunately at the new company I am at now, they are not listed so no shares for me :(

Anyway, I am veering off topic now. A few days, I had a rude shock when I read that Standard Chartered would be doing away with their famous marketing point, which means they have finally succumbed to charging a minimum commission and joining the rest of the stock brokerages. If I had to hazard a guess, I would put the blame on the change on lot size on SGX from 1000 to 100 back in January last year. Since then, small retail investors like myself realised it was really worth to purchase 100 shares each time using Standard Chartered platform while enjoying no minimum charges, yet being able to continuously average down our prices should the market go against us. It was this reason that I was actually promoting Standard Chartered in my blog in many of my articles. Of course, if there is a great deal, I believe I should share it with everyone :)

Hmm, so now what? With this $10 commission, I went into deep thinking these days on what to do, particularly when a large ton of my stocks are worth $500 or less, in fact, ALL of them are, with the exception of STI ETF. And when it takes effect on 1 August, if I wanted to realise my shares gain/losses, I would be screwed by the $10 charges for every stock I sold. That would be uh oh. Dayum.

So with great reluctance, I have decided on starting the liquidation of my mini-portfolio in SCB within these 2 months. It is a great pity, particularly when I had only just started this portfolio like last year, in fact, it is almost barely a year old and SCB decided to change their terms. I did consider waiting for the next round of dividends due in July, but that would be pretty tight. And so I wave good bye to my mini portfolio, don't get me wrong, its not entirely liquidated yet, but I am in the process of doing so. But from my own records, the mini portfolio had done remarkably well within a year. It really helped when you could take timing of your positions out of the equation, coupled with the slightly lower commissions compared to the other brokerages, trading around those positions was really possible. With the added bonus of me starting the positions during one of the weakest periods of REITs and interest rate sensitive assets, the portfolio was pretty successful. At least I could take heart that it was successful when it ended. The added advantages of diversification did help too, with some counters particularly the industrial REITs doing poorer than the other sectors.

And so I have went through my portfolio to pick out some REITs I would like to focus on, while looking to liquaidate everything else. I have selected about 5-6 REITs, each a representative of the different REIT sectors available in the market, namely the industrial, commercial, retail, hospitality and so on. Perhaps I will publish my portfolio at the end of this month for those who are curious what those positions are. The rest of the other positions are really smallish positions that was purely bought to diversify further or with a purpose to trade around those positions but did not materialise.

I did consider just leaving the mini portfolio just the way it is. Yes, don't touch it at all, just let it continue generating its minuscule income. I would not be able to do anything about it should the fundamentals of the companies sour. That is not what I wanted, but the positions would be really small to me in future. And there is an option to build on it further, by buying $4000 worth of stock additions to make the $10 commissions worth. However, I just did not like my stocks lingering in custodian accounts when I could transact the same thing with my normal brokerages yet enjoy the similar commissions with my stock safely in my CDP. Even though those rates are on a promotional basis, I suspect the competition for clients' money is so cut throat that this promotion is likely to continue. Already, for Lim and Tan, I have already seen them extending their $10 small lot size promotion consecutively since the start when the lot size was reducing back beginning last year. So yes, there is indeed no point to keep them stocks in my custodian account.

So here is what I intend to do. Keep the focus stocks including STI ETF, eliminate the other smallish positions. Perhaps use the money from the liquidation of the smallish positions to increase positions in the focus stocks should the prices still be favourable. And then once it has reached the 1000 shares limit, I would be prepared to pay $10 plus to transfer the shares to CDP. I did also consider buying stocks with had existing DRP or reinvestment programmes in place so that I could simply DCA without incurring charges from buying from the market. But I would prefer to collect income instead ploughing it back into the market, since the purpose of buy such assets is to generate income. It also eliminates the possibility of having odd lots and the difficulty in liquidation when the need arises.

At this rate, however, I anticipate that my portfolio value will continuously decrease to and even lower level than the already low levels as I had previously embarked on a large scale reduction in my portfolio this few months. Therefore, I would be looking to increase positions, perhaps using the normal brokerage to add to the REIT/Trust section of my portfolio as it has fallen behind the regular blue chip positions. And I promise I will give an update at the end of this month.

Portfolio Update - May 2016

2016-05-28T18:05:00.001+08:00

*As of 31 May 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	24.94%
UOB Bank	18.8800	4.00	13.69%
Croesus Retail Trust	0.7843	8.00	9.10%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3429	6.15	3.89%
First REIT	1.1754	6.91	3.41%
Soilbuild Business REIT	0.7628	7.80	2.76%
Starhub	3.3200	6.00	2.41%
Keppel DC REIT	0.9919	6.56	2.16%
Cache Logistics	0.9680	8.15	2.11%
SPHREIT	0.9417	5.80	2.05%
AIMS AMP Cap REIT	1.3363	8.37	1.94%
M1	2.3600	6.00	1.71%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.7217	8.03	1.57%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9900	7.40	0.72%
Saizen REIT	0.0645	0.00	0.70%
Sheng Siong	0.8400	3.00	0.61%
IREIT Global	0.6650	9.00	0.48%
Lippo Mall REIT	0.3200	9.90	0.46%
Kingsmen Creatives	0.6250	3.00	0.45%
Far East Hospitality	0.6200	7.00	0.45%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	24.41%
Total		4.99	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $13.795.50

Total Expected Dividends/month = $57.22

Average Dividend Yield = 4.99%

Once again, another month of activities in the market news segment with the slight jitters from the Federal Reserve hawkish remarks to the unconvincing US economic reports. Despite this, markets remained fairly unchanged, with slight profit taking for stocks mid month in anticipation of some risks coming from the FOMC meeting and possibly some decisions that might derail the fragile economy.

The lack of market movements, however, did not prevent an active rebalancing of my portfolio during this month. People would quote the sell in May and go away nonsense, but statistically, it has proven to be largely untrue. So stay invested, and if markets shock us to the downside, then stay even more invested, notice I emphasise the word "more". Yes, you know what I am talking about.

Some of the main changes are:

1) Reduction in Croesus Retail Trust position

The recent strength in the units have tempted me to take some profits of my largest holding in my SCB account. Anyway, I was intending to rebalance my portfolio, so what better way to reduce my heaviest position as the shares strengthen and bring it closer in line to the current exposure I have with the other units in my SCB account.

2) Addition of Capitaland Commercial Trust units

Smallish positions was incrementally added as the share prices weakened mid May. Office supply is heading for a glut in 2017, but I am betting on the proven management and solid fundamentals of this REIT to weather through the storm as I continue to collect dividends from it. This is one of the REITs I would look to increase positions should markets take a tumble similar to GFC levels, as I like the way the management has handled previous crisis.

3) Smallish addition to SPH REIT

Share prices of retail REITs weakened somewhat in May, but not to the extent of SPH REIT, as I felt that its solid balance sheet did not warrant its fall in value, picked 100 shares at $0.925. Will continue to monitor and add if it falls further.

4) Smallish position initiated for Kingsmen Creatives

This is a new addition to my portfolio, which caught my attention when the prices fell strongly after its poor financial results. I like the businesses it does but unfortunately, its businesses are strongly correlated with the strength of the economy. The weakened share price since 2015 reflects its poor earnings and dampened investor sentiment. Looking at the price chart of Kingsmen would also point to a much better margin of safety to buy now then before. PB of kingsmen is almost 1, and for service companies like Kingsmen, Neratel and the like, it is really a good bargain to buy some as a bet of value. Do note that Neratel currently trades 4x PB.

5) Full liquidation of Neratel, NOL and Ascott REIT

I have fully taken profit on Neratel as it is selling its income generating payment solution business which is the main reason for me to add to Neratel. Without this business, it would have more volatile earnings and it is more difficult to have some degree on certainty in its income. NOL has reached the agreed deal and it is only a matter of days the offer will be despatched to investors. However, I have decided to liquidate it first so that I have cash on hand to put it into other opportunities since this counter yields nothing. Ascott REIT was something I was looking to trade on strength. Prices fell strongly on the placement issue back in April, and have rebounded since. I still do not like the management fees structure and its exposure to the hospitality business is not really what I wanted as I am in the process of accumulating Ascendas Hospitality. Hence, the full liquidation of Ascott REIT.

Observant readers would have noticed that my portfolio has been reducing in value month on month. This reduction has been largely restricted to my SCB mini portfolio account which is heavy on income stocks. I am looking to reverse this by adding more income focused stocks soon, should REITs and other trusts start to fall on fears of an impending hike in interest rates.

Remember, it does not matter how much you start with, but whether you start the first step in your investment journey or not! That makes a hell lot of difference, in the eyes of compounding that is.

Portfolio Update - April 2016

2016-05-02T15:30:00.001+08:00

*As of 30 April 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	23.87%
UOB Bank	18.8800	4.00	13.10%
Croesus Retail Trust	0.7843	8.00	15.24%
First REIT	1.1754	6.91	3.26%
Soilbuild Business REIT	0.7628	7.80	2.65%
Starhub	3.3200	6.00	2.30%
Keppel DC REIT	0.9919	6.56	2.06%
Cache Logistics	0.9680	8.15	2.01%
AIMS AMP Cap REIT	1.3363	8.37	1.85%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3008	6.15	1.81%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.7217	8.03	1.50%
SPHREIT	0.9500	5.80	1.32%
Neratel	0.5800	3.44	1.21%
NOL	1.2117	0.00	0.84%
Ascott REIT	1.1100	6.34	0.77%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9900	7.40	0.69%
Saizen REIT	0.0645	0.00	0.67%
Sheng Siong	0.8400	3.00	0.58%
IREIT Global	0.6650	9.00	0.46%
Lippo Mall REIT	0.3200	9.90	0.44%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	23.36%
Total		5.03	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $14,455.62

Total Expected Dividends/month = $60.41

Average Dividend Yield = 5.03%

Here is another update, so quickly another month has passed by. Well, markets pretty much didn't do much over this month, it didn't go to outrageously high levels to warrant much selling, although I did make one large sale this month. It didn't go to levels more attractive for me to make large transactions, hence its another month of limited transactions.

The largest sale I made this month reduced my overall position by almost half. It was the sale of Croesus Retail Trust after the trust price moved upwards after the news of the acquisition. I took the chance to remove the heavy position I had since the middle of 2015, as part of my rebalancing portfolio to keep it more diversified and spread out across the different industries. I had an new position I initiated last month in my SCB account on Croesus Retail Trust as part of mainly speculative position made plainly because I had predicted the price of the trust would move upwards after the knee-jerk reaction due to the placement. It will remain in my SCB account as I still feel that the trust is a good source of passive income and its dividend yield sustainable along with my faith in the management.

The liquidation of this large position allowed me a larger war-chest to accumulate positions should the market go into a correction mode in future. I will continue to make smallish positions where I see fit while continuing to save aggressively from my monthly income, continuously adding to my war-chest.

The other surprise that happened this month was the sudden news about Ascendas Hospitality not looking to sell its assets despite multiple offers from at least 3 companies. This led to a crash in the price of Ascendas, falling as low as $0.66. The rebound was swift, and I failed to purchase more, but only added a few weeks later at $0.68 when it didn't look like it would go down further. Would look to purchase more on further weaknesses if presented. I am looking forward to its 2 quarters of distribution coming in this week or the next.

I have also added another hospitality REIT, Ascott REIT, in order to boost the hospitality segment in my REIT portfolio. Furthermore, I felt that Ascott REIT share price has been suffering from overhang from the recent placement done last month. The only regret was not being able to buy right after the placement, the similar strategy I employed with Croesus, simply because I was not monitoring the market frequently enough.

In other news, I had bought back Sheng Siong again at $0.84, another smallish position, awaiting the dividend coming in May. I may consider selling it if the price is favourably high enough after it goes XD.

And once again, I will continue to stay patient, though my hands are itching to buy more income producing assets with the increased size of the current war-chest now. But noooo, I will stay disciplined and focus on buying only when there is blood in the news. Waiting for the bumper dividends coming in May!

Portfolio Update - March 2016

2016-03-21T17:22:00.001+08:00

*As of 21 March 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Croesus Retail Trust	0.8472	8.47	45.13%
OCBC Bank	8.6000	4.00	14.78%
UOB Bank	18.8800	4.00	8.11%
Saizen REIT	1.0013	5.99	1.72%
Soilbuild Business REIT	0.7628	8.46	1.64%
First REIT	1.1754	6.91	1.52%
Starhub	3.3200	6.00	1.43%
Croesus Retail Trust	0.8100	8.88	1.39%
Keppel DC REIT	0.9919	6.56	1.28%
Cache Logistics	0.9680	8.15	1.25%
AIMS AMP Cap REIT	1.3363	8.37	1.15%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3008	6.15	1.12%
Ho Bee Land	1.9800	2.50	0.85%
SPHREIT	0.9500	5.80	0.82%
Fraser Centrepoint	1.8550	6.19	0.80%
Neratel	0.5800	3.44	0.75%
NOL	1.2117	0.00	0.52%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9900	7.40	0.43%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.7350	7.89	0.32%
IREIT Global	0.6650	9.00	0.29%
Lippo Mall REIT	0.3200	9.90	0.27%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	14.46%
Total		6.38	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $23,464.65

Total Expected Dividends/month = $123

Average Dividend Yield = 6.38%

I missed updating my portfolio in February, but I'll just do a quick one for the end of March, since right now, my portfolio transactions have pretty much stagnated as there is much lesser attractive positions to initiate ever since the start of the mini-rally over the past month or so. I would prefer to just sit back and just relax until the next blood bath arrives. The economic fundamentals have not changed, and fear is still pretty much in the market right now, its just now that the fear has been put aside and the market is looking for even the slightest reason for cheer to rally on the news. I am not saying for sure the market will crash even lower than before, hell, I wouldn't want that to happen either, even though I am prepared for if it were to happen of course.

Not much changes to my portfolio right now, only notable changes was the buying back of Ascendas Hospitality again when it suddenly went to $0.73 which I believed (and rightly so) was unsustainable. The only regret was not buying more, but the idea then was to buy more only if it went lower than my cost price, but it didn't.

The largest position I added in this month was Starhub, which I felt was at a reasonable valuation than the high $4++ earlier last year. Assuming dividends are to be sustained, as promised by the management, I would receive a 6% yield, pretty good I feel. However, I am prepared for a decline in dividends as it is clear that the current cash flow generation from its operations are not enough to cover its dividends. Market is currently expecting this given the persistent share price weakness in the stock. If prices were to correct heavily again, I would look to increase my positions. Since its pretty expensive as compared to the REITs, I would prefer to enter again only when it corrects by a large margin, that is why I emphasised on the word "heavily".

I had also took another smallish position on Neratel at $0.55, as prices came crashing down due to the cut in dividends, which was pretty large cut I felt. But currently, I think valuations for Neratel is much more attractive, despite it offering only a miserly 3.5%, based on my assumption that it pays 2 cents for the annual dividend, which I think should be the worst case scenario. 3.5% is pretty low compared to REITs and even telcos, but Neratel is still in a net cash position, despite spending heavily on capex, which is to be expected for the industry the company is in. The company I believe is trying to reduce the amount of cash removed to the company as it prepares for more capex whenever needed. I still believe in the company's growth prospects but still not too comfortable to take large positions on this counter just yet.

I have also accumulated another smallish position of OCBC at $7.86 as the results it has announced earlier in February was pleasing, which proved that the poorer results earlier last quarter was a one-off weakness. This brings my average price to around $8.60. This shall be it for now, I will only consider adding to positions if prices fall to below $7, which is unlikely in the short term unless shocking news like the subprime mortgage crisis back in 2008 were to show up again. Meantime, I am happy with my entry price.

On a side note, Saizen REIT has already dished out the full cost of my position in one dividend payout, payable on 29 March. This means that my largest position in the SCB account has been liquidated, as whatever is trading in the market are purely profits at the moment. Thus, the amount invested in income producing positions in my SCB has been reduced by quite a bit, and I am currently looking for other stocks to cover the shortfall. Starhub was one of the considerations in this case, partly the reason why I initiated the position.

For now, I would be simply sitting on my a** at the moment while playing the waiting game with the market. Do remember, patience is one of the greatest virtue when it comes to investing in the stock market.

Portfolio Update - January 2016

2016-02-03T22:01:00.001+08:00

*As of 31 January 2016

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Croesus Retail Trust	0.8472	8.47	47.16%
OCBC Bank	9.0500	4.00	12.19%
UOB Bank	18.8800	4.00	8.47%
Saizen REIT	1.0013	5.99	1.80%
Keppel DC REIT	0.9919	6.56	1.78%
Soilbuild Business REIT	0.7628	8.46	1.71%
First REIT	1.1822	6.91	1.59%
Croesus Retail Trust	0.8100	8.88	1.45%
Cache Logistics	0.9680	8.15	1.30%
AIMS AMP Cap REIT	1.3363	8.37	1.20%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3008	6.15	1.17%
Ho Bee Land	1.9800	2.50	0.89%
SPHREIT	0.9500	5.80	0.85%
Fraser Centrepoint	1.8550	6.19	0.83%
NOL	1.2117	0.00	0.54%
Neratel	0.5950	6.84	0.53%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9900	7.40	0.44%
Sheng Siong	0.8450	3.84	0.38%
IREIT Global	0.6650	9.00	0.30%
Lippo Mall REIT	0.3200	9.90	0.29%
STI ETF	2.8058	3.50	15.11%
Total		6.50	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $22,534.31

Total Expected Dividends/month = $122

Average Dividend Yield = 6.50%

In a blink of an eye, the first month of 2016 has come and gone. During this volatile month, which saw most of the action coming from the actions of the Chinese government trying to stave off volatility in its markets by introducing circuit breaker which would halt stock trading across the board, in an attempt to 'control' the market like they have tried many times before but the result was the same, failing spectacularly to calm markets. The backfire was because of the increased uncertainty of the markets which this trading halts, which exacerbated the situation as the China stock market, dominated by retail investors, rushed to sell off their risky stocks. The fear spread quickly and the whole market collapsed within minutes.

But we should not be alarmed, as such actions are temporary and governments are learning their mistakes, would seek to rectify their ways, or so I would believe. Abenomics has more or less failed, and we know recently the Japanese government has proceeded to set the benchmark interest rates into negative territory! Which such bad news stemming out from every region, it is the right chance for people starting out in their investing journey. The moment could not be any better, or so I believe, markets can still get cheaper, so don't take my word for it. But start small, and take small nibbles into the market as much as you can stomach the losses which would come. Slow and steady as you go. There is no rush to catch multiple falling knives.

Speaking of which, this month has seen myself continuing to scoop up the STI ETF at my target prices. I have not bought all stipulated in my shopping list, but at least a few of my orders went through. I also tweaked my portfolio a little bit, by selling some stronger counters and buying back if they fell back to below or my original cost price. Some of this are Keppel DC REIT, First REIT and Fraser Centerpoint. I have managed to buy back the shares for Keppel DC and First REIT after they went XD and fell further, but for Fraser Centerpoint I have yet to buy back my shares as it has not fallen low enough for me to be interested to increase my positions again.

I have also quite a large exposure to industrial REITs, so I would no longer be increasing positions in them in the meantime. For now, I have identified some REITs which I would be focussing on accumulating if prices were to fall further. These are Capitaland Commercial Trust, Fraser Centrepoint Trust, First REIT and Keppel DC REIT. All four REITS possesses low gearing and relatively low interest costs as well as interest coverage on the higher side. Most of the management of these REITs have proven themselves for more than 5 years, the only exception is newbie Keppel DC REIT. I have decided to add Keppel DC REIT has the balance sheet have shown themselves to be of high quality, the only things I am not so happy about would be the premium over book value and its low yield. But I have decided to give them a chance to prove themselves, meantime, I will continue to collect their dividends.

On a side note, I have increased positions in Saizen REIT in anticipation of their results release and dividend announcement soon. Should prices continue to fall, I will be there to accumulate as we are more or less sure that the buyer of Saizen REIT assets would be paying at least $1.10 per unit, this is on top of the dividend it should be dishing out soon.

For now, my focus would be the 4 stated REITs and STI ETF, should the market provide me the opportunity to accumulate further.

Last year in 2015, another 20k saved, good or not?

2016-01-17T19:18:00.000+08:00

Well, another year has come and gone. The previous year, which included the early part of 2015, I had managed to hoard $20k in 9 months.

For the year of 2015, after adding my sums, I have only managed to eke out $20k over the 12 months.

WHAT???

Only $20k? And its over 12 months, a good 3 months longer than the duration I managed to save the same amount last year!

While this year performance has been poorer than the last, there are certain reasons for the decline in performance.

Reduction in Disposable Income

A large part in the reduction of income saved is due to the enrolment in the Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), which kicked in at the beginning of this year. Since it is a good 10% of my income, my savings will suffer a rough reduction of $320 every month, assuming the graduate average pay of $3,200. That is a $3,840 reduction to my annual savings. Including the CPF contribution (20%) and parents' allowance ($500/month), the maximum I can save would be the region of $20k. Well, I think I deserve a pat on the back for saving almost the maximum a graduate in my shoes would save, assuming he does not spend on miscellaneous stuff like shopping, food, entertainment etc. So some readers might ask, wow, so Dividend Simpleton was like an introvert the whole year, as he didn't spend a cent on this stuff! Well, for my calculations, I did not include bonuses, which might be substantial to some, but for my company, my bonus was paltry at only one month. Well, better than nothing I guess, so I can assume for the whole year, I have spent around one month pay on such stuff. That is surprisingly a lot, but given that I have went for an overseas trip middle of this year, it makes a bit more sense.

Realised Losses

I have also included losses in my portfolio to my savings goal, much like impairment does to the accounting books. This directly affects the amount I have saved, as purchases are directly paid out from my savings account, and a loss would mean that technically, I have saved less. I like to take a conservative view on my finances, hence the inclusion. However, unrealised losses have not been included for the obvious reason that it has not been realised yet.

Taxes

I have also included this into my calculations. The good thing about income tax in Singapore is that it is pretty on the low side. Even with the reduction via taxes, I would have saved around $20k, which is actually not bad a feat, I would say.

Overall

Despite the heavy losses ('impairments') to my savings, I am proud to have managed to save in the region of $20k, which is critical to buffing up my warchest, even more so when cash is beginning to be king in this bearish market.

The habits I have mentioned in the previous post on how much I have saved continue to be practised, such as saving money on food expenses by bring food from home and the like. However, such food and travel expenses are rather small for me, as I don't work in the city and the company provided transport to and from work. However, savings from such expenses may be handy for say people who work in the city, plus just simply queueing for food would have taken a large chunk of their lunch breaks.

As for travel expenses, with the MRT and the buses making travel so convenient, I don't see why people would resort to taking expensive taxis and private transport to work. Look at the above picture of workers getting to work in Cambodia and we see how fortunate we are. We complain about so many things that many in Singapore have taken for granted.

We need discipline to make this work, and if we keep succumbing to temptations, then eventually, it affects our attitudes to even our own course of work! We have a goal to work towards, and lets go GET IT!

Portfolio Update - December 2015

2016-01-05T23:02:00.003+08:00

*As of 31 December 2015

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Croesus Retail Trust	0.8472	8.47	52.28%
OCBC Bank	9.0500	4.00	12.79%
UOB Bank	18.8800	4.00	8.89%
Fraser Centrepoint	1.8600	6.17	2.63%
Cache Logistics	0.9680	8.15	2.28%
Soilbuild Business REIT	0.7694	8.44	1.81%
First REIT	1.1933	6.91	1.69%
Croesus Retail Trust	0.8100	8.88	1.53%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0017	6.56	1.42%
Saizen REIT	0.9783	5.99	1.38%
CapitaCommercial	1.3013	6.15	1.23%
Ho Bee Land	1.9800	2.50	0.93%
SPHREIT	0.9500	5.80	0.89%
AIMS AMP Cap REIT	1.3375	8.37	0.63%
Fraser Commercial	1.3050	7.72	0.61%
NOL	1.2117	0.00	0.57%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9950	7.40	0.47%
Sheng Siong	0.8450	3.84	0.40%
Lippo Mall REIT	0.3200	9.90	0.30%
Neratel	0.5850	6.84	0.28%
STI ETF	2.9720	3.00	7.00%
Total		6.78	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $21,230.17

Total Expected Dividends/month = $120

Average Dividend Yield = 6.78%

First of all, it has been a busy month for me towards year end, and I apologise for the late post, if anyone is wondering what happened to Dividend Simpleton. As my responsibilities pile up at work, there goes my free time to blog about all things finance, and I expect this to likely happen in future. So if any of my readers wonder what happened to me, do not panic haha :)

The biggest change in my portfolio was the liquidation of Accordia Golf Trust (AGT). The trust performed very poorly in its recent results and that was pinned to the poor weather conditions in Japan, despite the expectation that the JPY has strengthened against the SGD, supposedly positive for the trust. Furthermore, the decision to reduce payout to 90% did not help either, which depressed distribution to a mere 2.32 cents per unit. Assuming this is the worst case scenario, I had estimated that the price would most likely go around the low 50 cents per unit to maintain market's expectation of a 9% yield to factor in the risk this trust is exposed to. As the market price was around $0.60 when the news was just released, I sold off the trust as I believed the trust would soon lose around 16% of its value. Eventually, it did, partly because of its poor results maybe, but also due to the much poorer market sentiments generally hitting the markets in November and December. The question is, since the price was reached my target price, is it still worth a buy? Well, I definitely won't be buying the same amount as I did before, given that with the risk-off sentiments hitting the markets now, many other quality stocks are trading at attractive valuations. Given the current uncertain market conditions, it is much wiser to keep the cash in the warchest for strategic and staggered deployment in future. Perhaps I might use SCB platform to buy a few hundred shares in AGT, if the prices show clear consolidation.

With the reduction AGT, my warchest has now increased by about close to $10k, allowing me to use the proceeds to make smallish bets using the SCB platform, taking advantage of market volatility. The months of November and December had seen several changes in my portfolio, as capital was recycled, buying shares on weakness and selling them on strength. Much noticeable was the cut loss on Asian Pay TV trust as the price was falling continuously, along with the threat of the distribution likely to fall to the low 6-7% yield, I would rather use the proceeds to invest into many other quality REITs offering the same yield. Some of my favourite counters for trading plays include Capitaland Mall Trust, Capitaland Commercial Trust, Noble Group and many others. Some counters are not in the current portfolio as they could have been liquidated entirely while quite possibly waiting for the next opportunity to enter again. The big players prefer to move the big names, so using them to trade would be preferred as they tend to be more sensitive to market movements.

There are many other changes to my portfolio and I can list them all here, and I will touch a bit on each of them why I chose to take action.

Ascendas Hospitality

This counter has made a impressive return since I bought it back in August. Yield is a whooping 9-10% and the capital gains were immense. I had attempted to buy in when the prices corrected to $0.60 in November, but it failed to hit my buy price before trending higher quickly, up till the news on the offer to buy all existing shares of AHT. I was a little impatient and sold the remaining shares at $0.73.

Fraser Centrepoint Trust

A defensive retail reit with a good long track record, low gearing and currently dividends are still growing, albeit much more flattish growth than before. Likely to hold this stock for a longer time frame.

First Reit

Added some on weakness due to speculation of privatisation, which I believe is likely to not happen. Yield is the most decent amongst the medical reits listed in SGX, with a much lower premium to valuation, which is coincidentally caused by the recent speculative news of shifting of the listing of property trusts to Indonesia, due to changes in tax policy.

Cache Logistics Trust

Added more on weakness. The overall investment theme remains the same, although expect some weakness in the short term. The DHL BTS facility should be operating finally this year and the next results or the following one would determine if the BTS could mitigate higher expenses and lower rental from its other assets.

Keppel DC Reit

Added more on weakness. The theme of investing in this is the same, strong REIT fundamentals and likely more defensive in the face of rising interest rates.

Soilbuild Biz Reit

Added more on weakness. I like its exposure to the business space sector. Although it is named as such, majority of its properties are the industrial, so the jury is still not out on this one. DPU growth theme is still on the cards, I am hopeful that it could outperform like what AimsAmp has managed to do so far.

Saizen Reit

Added some at $1.085 in anticipation of the next dividend payout and the eventual sale of at least $1.10.

Capitaland Commercial Trust

Took profit on partial stake and then added more on weakness, average price lowered from $1.325 to $1.30. Investment theme remains the same as before.

Ho Bee Land

Initiated position as I felt the company is currently undervalued, even with the increase in share price over the years. With its anchor building metropolis doing pretty well, I think it has a very diversified portfolio of assets generating the cash flow needed for business functions. Also, it may be a possible takeover target, given the high proportion of shares held by its controlling shareholder.

AimsAmpCap Reit

Initiated position in the REIT as it has shown remarkable improvement in improving DPU despite the weakening of industrial rents. Added element of a growth play here and also to boost the overall yield of my portfolio as it was getting heavy on lower yield (defensive) reits.

NOL

Initiated position on NOL and waiting for CMA CGM to buy it from me at a higher price soon.

Sheng Siong

Initiated position on Sheng Siong for some growth element in the defensive retail segment. Smallish position given the a high premium in terms of PE.

Neratel

Reduced position to take profit from the rally in prices. Retained a smallish position as the theme of investing in it remains.

Final Comments

I have made quite a flurry of actions on my portfolio in these 2 months and mainly in my SCB mini-portfolio. The portfolio despite having some laggards like Cache Logistics and Fraser Commercial, strength in the other counters reduced the impact from this. This is the usefulness of using SCB as a broker, particularly since they do not charge a minimum commission, as it allows me to hugely diversify my portfolio without incurring large commission fees. It is also a huge plus when it comes to the ability to do Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) on my existing counters which my investing theme has not changed. Furthermore, any sudden huge gains in certain counters can also be realised without compromising on the entire position, which would be virtually impossible with other brokers given the high commission charges. People who have used the conventional brokers would definitely agree with me on this. And most of all, SCB platform is most friendly to the small retail investor who has only a small amount of money to invest. What I mean by small really means very small capital outlay, for as little as a few tens of dollars to a few hundred depending on the share price of the stock, 100 shares allows us great flexibility for the small retail investor like ourselves!

It is still along way to go in this investing journey, and the jury is still not out on this mini-portfolio.

Good luck to anyone still holding on in this choppy waters, keep it up!

Portfolio Update - October 2015

2015-11-01T00:32:00.002+08:00

*As of 31 October 2015

Counter	Average Price	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Accordia Golf Trust	0.6400	8.91	32.42%
Croesus Retail Trust	0.9207	7.43	33.32%
OCBC Bank	9.0895	4.00	9.87%
UOB Bank	18.9951	4.00	6.87%
Accordia Golf Trust	0.6247	8.91	5.65%
Neratel	0.5850	6.84	0.64%
Ascendas Hospitality	0.6175	8.29	0.22%
Cache Logistics	0.9924	8.20	1.08%
Mapletree Logistics	0.9974	7.40	0.36%
Capitaland Commercial	1.3250	6.15	0.48%
IREIT Global	0.6465	9.55	0.47%
Asian Pay TV Trust	0.8016	10.18	0.87%
Keppel DC REIT	1.0000	6.46	0.73%
Soilbuild Business REIT	0.8025	8.05	0.29%
Saizen REIT	0.9250	6.30	0.67%
SPHREIT	0.9500	5.80	0.69%
STI ETF	2.9720	3.00	5.38%
Total		7.19	100.00%

Legend

CDP

SCB

Total Invested Capital = $27,635.86

Total Expected Dividends/month = $165.50

Average Dividend Yield = 7.19%

For this month, it was overall a bullish month as the STI pushed on with a stunning rally to almost 3100, before slipping back below the 3000 level on weaker sentiments.

The highlight of the month was the re-purchase of Accordia Golf Trust (AGT) once again. I have previously been a shareholder of Accordia back in the early part of 2015 and subsequently liquidated my position after the share prices ran up due to the dividend announcement. The share price of AGT has weakened considerably since as currency risks due to AGT non-hedging of its Japanese yen distributions has dampened investor sentiments on the units. The weakening of the Japanese yen has been constantly the dampener for this stock I believe, as I don't see what not to like about the trust other than its foreign exchange woes. And I like to imagine, if the same stock is listed in Japan and I am a Japanese resident, then I would have no qualms in investing most of my wealth into this stock. I mean, who doesn't like a REIT-like structure with freehold properties, which theoretically could generate high returns of more than 9% annually while having low interest rates in its disposal as Abenomics continues in Japan and a comfortable gearing similar to most REITs in Singapore, yet trading at a discount to its book value? Unfortunately, investors are risk averse, and with the JPY/SGD pair fluctuating madly recently with a general downwards bias (partly due to Abenomics), it is no wonder investors chose to dump this stock. Anyway, I have to stop myself from rambling along. The time for AGT to announce its dividend is round the corner in November, 12 November to be exact. So, as prices are still on a weak side, and cheap relative to the price I had previously bought them, I took the chance to get some units.

Observant readers may notice I have some units of AGT already in the SCB custodian account. This are units which were accumulated during the recent crash in the stock market, and forms part of the mini-portfolio which I had planned to play around with. In terms of weightage, it is obvious that AGT is on the heavy side in both my CDP and SCB portfolio. I would be doing further tweaks once I obtain further clarity on the AGT results in November.

For the SCB portfolio, I have added smallish positions on Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT), SPHREIT and Saizen REIT. APTT would be announcing dividend in early November, so I am accumulating more on share price weaknesses. SPHREIT was more for a portfolio balancing as I am currently lacking in a retail REIT. I would be purchasing more on weakness as I like SPHREIT's low gearing and slight discount to book value vs the other retail REITs which are trading at a premium to book value. Saizen REIT was a bet, a bet that the firm offer which it received on 23 October was close to the current NAV of Saizen REIT. Even if it didn't materialise, I am happy to continue receiving a yield of 6+% for the units. As at $0.925, the units were still trading at a discount even after the steep increase when news of the offer emerged. And indeed it is, as just this morning, the news broke that the firm offer was a slight premium to the NAV. Now, I am feeling regretful I didn't buy more :P

So far, I am satisfied with the mini-portfolio performance, partly because most of the units were bought during the turmoil in August-September. My best performing counter, excluding Saizen REIT, would have to be Ascendas Hospitality, rising almost 10% within this short span of 2 months. The worst performer would be the recently purchased SPHREIT, which I haven't allowed it the chance to perform just yet.

Lets see how it goes then.

Portfolio Update - September 2015

2015-10-17T18:20:00.000+08:00

It's been along time since I wrote a post, owing to the long vacation I took in September to October. I have not updated my portfolio so here's an up to date version.

*As of 17 October 2015

Counter	No of Shares	Average Price	Amount Paid	Yield on cost(%)	Weightage
Croesus Retail Trust	10,000	0.9207	9,207.00	7.43	61.93%
OCBC Bank	300	9.09	2,726.86	4.00	18.36%
UOB Bank	100	18.99	1,899.51	4.00	10.85%
Accordia Golf Trust	1,500	0.61533	925.19	8.91	6.22%
Neratel	300	0.585	175.92	6.84	1.18%
Ascendas Hospitality	100	0.6175	61.90	8.29	0.35%
Cache Logistics	300	0.9924	297.71	8.20	1.70%
Mapletree Logistics	100	0.9974	99.74	7.40	0.57%
IREIT Global	200	0.6465	129.31	9.55	0.74%
CapitaCommerical	100	1.325	132.81	6.15	0.76%
Asian Pay TV Trust	100	0.81	81.19	10.18	0.55%
Soilbuild Business REIT	100	0.8025	80.44	8.05	0.46%
STI ETF	400	2.99	1,197.00	3.00	8.05%
Total			17,504.05	6.25	100.00%

Total Invested Capital = $17,504.05

Total Expected Dividends/month = $91.17

Average Dividend Yield = 6.25%

The month of September was another opportunity for me to add more stocks to my portfolio. The expectation that September was the month when the Fed would finally raise interest rates has led to further turmoil to an already torrid period for stocks. This was the month which I expected to pick many interest rate sensitive stocks on the cheap, particularly the REITs.

Observant readers would have noticed that I have added smallish positions in REITs with juicy dividends like Cache Logistics, IREIT Global and Mapletree Logistics into my SCB micro-portfolio. In addition, I have added some UOB shares. I would have further increased my positions in these counters and more if not for the SCB platform failing to log on while I was enjoying my vacation overseas. When I finally returned to Singapore and got the log on issues rectified, the market had rebounded. And yes, the crash in the STI coincided with my holiday and it always seemed like markets crashes during the times I decide to go on a holiday. Maybe anyone can simply wait for me to go for a vacation so that they can start to pick up stocks haha

In other news, I had pared positions in Soilbuild Biz REIT, Ascendas Hospitality and Capitaland Commerical Trust owing to the run up in share prices. The market, however, continued to surge forward and now the decision to divest them was regrettable, but that is completely on hindsight. On the bright side, I have chosen to divest only half of my smallish positions in these counters and the run up still benefited my micro-portfolio, albeit a teeny weeny bit as compared to my past profits. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am hopeful to see this portfolio grow from micro to regular status soon as I continue to accumulate more shares. My accumulation of shares has taken a break at this moment, as prices had already run up due to the reduced expectation of interest rate hikes for this year. I do not know if markets may present another opportunity this year, but I would be more than happy to add more when it happens.

In other news, Croesus Retail Trust has announced rights, 22 shares for every 100 shares owned, due to the proposed acquisition of a Japanese suburban mall. The acquisition would most likely be only slightly beneficial, but I would not be complaining because the Croesus Management chose to consider rights instead of private placement, which the latter would be undesirable for existing unitholders like ourselves. I would be subscribing for the rights and applying for excess rights wherever possible to further reduce my average purchase price. However, I expect interest in Croesus rights to be on the high side, so I don't have much expectations for getting any excess rights. So I may even consider increasing my position in the mother shares should prices become even more attractive, as I believe that current prices are already attractive. However, I expect the rights to have a depressive effect on the mother shares for some time, so I would consider increasing my positions only after the rights exercise is completed.

On the STI ETF front, no shares were purchased as the market failed to hit the next price level which would trigger my next round of purchases, even though the market made a new low in September.

For the next few months to end year, it is generally a stronger period seasonally, as history has proven it, look at what happened during the Euro crisis of 2011, and even during the depths of the GFC of 2008, markets consolidated or even went higher as compared to the September-October period. So I expect to see some consolidation for the next 3 months, assuming no further bad news were to rear it ugly head to cause markets to go lower. Safe time to enter now? I wouldn't dare to put my money to back my words, given the still poor economic backdrop, but if you have a long term horizon, we should not be bothered about short term volatility.

At the moment, I have about close to $20k invested in the market. My warchest is still rather sizeable, even after accounting for the vacation expenses. I would put the amount of money vested in the market roughly close to a comfortable 40%, while 60% remain in the warchest.

Let just sit back and watch how the show unfolds.