A-Investor

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:58:00 +0000

Resistance: 19161
Support: 17685
Comment: If it surges above 19161 - more upside (may turn out to be the next Wave 1). If it plunges below upper Red trendline - more downside.

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:26:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper Red trendline, Neckline
Support: Lower Red trendline, 8000
Comment: If it surges above Upper Red trendline - move up to test Neckline. If it plunges below Lower Red trendline - more down to test 8000.

When to purchase?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:59:00 +0000

Scenario
If HSI form a lower high (below 19161), and start a down wave. I will be looking at the following levels to purchase:

a. Fibonacci Retracement at 38.2% (17350)
Purchase (10% of available fund).

b. Fibonacci Retracement at 50% (16800)
Purchase (20% of available fund).

c. Fibonacci Retracement at 61.8% (16243)
Purchase (30% of available fund).

Note: The Golden Cross, when the 50-day moving average for a security crosses above the 200-day moving average, occurred to the S&P 500 on 23 Jun 2009.

No purchase plan at this stage

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:31:00 +0000

HSI plunged about 1506 points (8%) during this correction, and has been volatile with low volume for the past one week.

Is HSI in Wave A?
Maybe.. so there is no purchase plan due to the risk involved. I will take profit on short term shares during the next up wave.

Note: Currently, "Better Than Expected" news is no longer good enough. Market needs good news in order to move up.

Cosco Corporation Ltd

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Resistance: $1.47, Upper Green trendline
Support: $1.39, Lower Green trendline
Comment: If it surges above $1.47 - move up to test Upper Green trendline. If it plunges below $1.39 - more down to test Lower Green trendline.

5 steps to successful trading

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 07:32:00 +0000

By Doug Hirschhorn (chief executive officer of Edge Consulting)

Let's be honest, trading is not rocket science. In fact, trading succes has little to do with how smart you are. Rather, it's more about your mental process. Successful traders generally do many of the same things, regardless of which market or product they trade. Here are five steps to successful trading:

1) Establish a game plan and follow it. Many traders make the mistake of trading without a game plan. And some who have a game plan fail to execute. You must have a game plan and follow through with it.

2) Only trade when you have EDGE. Just like a hitter waits for his pitch, you have to wait for the right trade -- and make sure you have an edge.

3) Use solid risk management. You must have stops in place and, more importantly, you have to stick to those stops. When the market goes down and you hit that number, you have to say to yourself. 'I put the stop there for a reason, and just because I'm losing money is not a reason to ignore a stop.' Have the stop in place, use solid risk management, take the stop and move on to the next trade.

4) Be Resilient. You have to be able to deal with setbacks. Statistically, you're going to lose money about half the time and make money half the time in trading. In short, you'll have to deal with failure on a regular basis. And when it happens, you have to have a 'so what' attitude. That doesn't mean you don't care, you just have to realize it's not the end of the world. There's always another trade, another opportunity, around the corner.

5) Keep it Simple. The market can only go up, down or sideways at any given time. Many traders try to out think the market, but at the end of the day, you have to keep it a simple game. Keeping it simple will help you improve your trading success.

Purchase plan for Wave 5 again

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:03:00 +0000

Since my comment that HSI doesn't look good, it has hit a low at 17710 today, but managed to rebound to close at 18058. This down wave can be a Wave 4 or Wave A. My purchase plan will not be aggressive because there is a risk of it being a Wave A.

Scenario 1 - HSI test 17685 and rebound.
Purchase (10% of available fund).
May have already happen today, and will follow up tomorrow.

Scenario 2 - HSI pullback to Fibonacci Retracement at 50% (16712).
Purchase (10% of available fund).

Based on technical analysis, the following shares look good after the recent dip:
Cosco
KepLand
Midas
WingTai

Buy on dips instead of significant pullbacks

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 13:23:00 +0000

Listed below are interesting points found in the articles that I have read in the past week:

The world was ready to cope with oil at $75-$80 a barrel, the price range the leading oil exporter considers enough to sustain energy investment for the long term.
S&P 500 at 870 will be the floor.
Asia (China, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan) offers an attractive risk-return profile, as the region's equities can potentially provide returns of 20-25 percent over the next couple of years.
Buying on dips instead of waiting for any significant pullbacks.
Sentiments have gone from Armageddon to "there is light at the end of the tunnel”.

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:53:00 +0000

Resistance: 19400, Upper Green trendline
Support: Lower Green trendline, 17685
Comment: If it surges above 19400 - more upside. If it plunges below lower Green trendline - more downside. I believe this is Wave 3, but just beware if it turns out to be Wave 5.

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 30 May 2009 00:59:00 +0000

Resistance: 8591, 9000
Support: Lower Green trendline, 7882
Comment: If it surges above 8591 - more upside. If it plunges below lower Green trendline - more downside.

Thoughts on Genting's shareholder selling of stake

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 28 May 2009 05:03:00 +0000

What is the number of shares being sold?

The family that owns Malaysian gaming firm Genting Bhd sold about 853 mil shares (9%) in its Singapore unit to institutions yesterday, raising US$425 million (S$615 million).
ChannelNewsAsia reported that 3 substantial shareholders have sold a 1.18 bil of Genting's share.

Note: A check at SGX site initially shows that 1.18bil is the correct figure, but take note of the "deemed interest". I believe the number of shares sold is about 914 mil.

What is the reason of selling stake?
The reason should not be related to Sentosa project as Genting Singapore has always mention that the project will be on time in the first quarter of 2010 and it will not have to resort to further borrowings for the project.
It is speculated that Genting Bhd may be a possible bidder for the MGM Grand Macau, which is expected to sell a 50% stake.

Why selling shares directly to institutional investors?
There is no earnings dilution as compared to rights issue or new share placement. To ensure that the share price doesn't collapse when selling huge amount of shares. Imagine selling 914mil shares in open mkt without support from institutional investors - scary!

Why institutional investors want to buy?
This is a way to collect huge amount of shares at a single price without pushing the price up.

Vested.

Genting Singapore PLC

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 23 May 2009 10:30:00 +0000

Resistance: $0.815, $0.87
Support: $0.77, lower Green trendline
Comment: If it surges above $0.815 - more upside to test $0.87. If it plunges below $0.77 - more downside to test lower Green trendline.

Are you waiting for the correction?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Fri, 22 May 2009 12:46:00 +0000

Listed below are 3 interesting lines found in the articles that I have read in the past week:

When no one believes in the rally, it could last longer. When it goes longer, more people are force into the market.
Market corrections could also be sideways. People looking for strong corrections may be disappointed, and they may have a hard time struggling to catch up with the market as it begins to rise.
Economy has transited from “hopes for survival” to “expectations of sustainability”.

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 18 May 2009 14:08:00 +0000

Resistance: Red trendline, 17685
Support: Lower Green trendline, 15781
Comment: If it surges above the Red trendline - more upside to test 17685. If it plunges below lower Green trendline - more downside to test 15781.

Purchase plan for Wave 5

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 14 May 2009 01:22:00 +0000

Is HSI still in Wave 3 (up)? Or the beginning of Wave 4 (down)?
Er.. not sure. But I believe that there are lots of $ at the sideline waiting to get into the market. Any pullback will be supported by $ rushing in due to the fear of missing out.

So, this is my purchase plan for Wave 5:

Scenario 1 - HSI pullback to Fibonacci Retracement at 38.2% (16452)
Purchase (10% of available fund).

Scenario 2 - HSI pullback to Fibonacci Retracement at 50% (16071)
Purchase (10%).

Scenario 3 - HSI pullback to test 15781
Purchase (30%).

Midas Hldgs Limited

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Thu, 07 May 2009 11:59:00 +0000

Resistance: $0.65, $0.70
Support: $0.595, $0.55
Comment: If it hold above $0.595 - more upside. If it plunges below $0.55 - more downside.

Update on Plan B

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Wed, 06 May 2009 11:12:00 +0000

From 21 Apr to 4 May, I have executed 3 out of 4 scenario of my Plan B.

Technically:

Dow is out of the downtrend channel. Last closed at 8410 - about 30% above its low at 6469.
HSI is in Wave 3 (Elliot Wave). Last closed at 16834 - about 57% above its low at 10676.

Still bear rally?? Haa..

My strategy moving forward:

Identify shares (A) in my holding to be kept for mid to long term. Done
Identify shares (B) in my holding to be sold in this wave. Sell some if profit is good. Executing
Identify good shares that are laggard during this run up. Monitoring
Consider selling remaining shares (B) if the uptrend channel of this wave is broken. Waiting
Plan my purchase for Wave 5. Pending

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:33:00 +0000

Resistance: Green trendlines
Support: 15781, Blue trendline
Comment: If it hold above Blue trendline - more upside (wave 3). If it plunges below Blue trendline - more downside (wave 4).

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sun, 03 May 2009 00:51:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper Green trendline
Support: Lower Green trendline, 7882
Comment: If it holds above Upper Red trendline with increasing volume - more upside. If it plunges below Upper Red trendline - move downside.

There were only a few coins in the hat

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:05:00 +0000

A blind boy sat on the steps of a building with a hat by his feet. There were only a few coins in the hat. He held up a sign which said:
"I am blind, please help."

A man was walking by. He took a few coins from his pocket and dropped them into the hat. He then took the sign, turned it around, and wrote some words. He put the sign back so that everyone who walked by would see the new words.

Soon the hat began to fill up. A lot more people were giving money to the blind boy. That afternoon the man who had changed the sign came to see how things were. The boy recognized his footsteps and asked,
"Were you the one who changed my sign this morning? What did you write?"

The man said,
"I only wrote the truth. I said what you said but in a different way."

What he had written was:
"Today is a beautiful day and I cannot see it."

Do you think the first sign and the second sign were saying the same thing?

Of course both signs told people the boy was blind. But the first sign simply said the boy was blind. The second sign told people they were so lucky that they were not blind. Should we be surprised that the second sign was more effective?

Moral of the Story:
Be thankful for what you have.
Be creative. Be innovative.
Think differently and positively.

Do you plan your purchase?

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 06:02:00 +0000

Recently, I invested 20% of available fund when HSI hit scenario 2. A friend asked me for the reasons to purchase. My reasons are:

We are already 16 months since recession - time to pick up good shares during pullback. But remember to plan your purchase.
Reference to HSI, I believe we are in Wave 1 (up), and this current pullback maybe Wave 2 (down). There are still 2 more up wave (3 and 5).
Dow, HSI and STI have rebound after testing Fibonacci Retracement at 23.6%.

Hang Seng

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 23:01:00 +0000

Resistance: 15781, 15977 (recent high)
Support: Green trendline, Neckline
Comment: If it surges above recent high - more upside. If it plunges below Green trendline - move down to test Neckline.

Plan B for coming week

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 11:08:00 +0000

The plan for the past week did not work because the scenario did not happen. So, this is plan B for the coming week:

Scenario 1 - Both Dow and HSI breakout above their resistances
Dow must close above Upper downtrend line.
HSI must close above 15781.
Purchase (10% of available fund).

Scenario 2 - HSI pullback to test the Green trendline
Purchase (20%).

Scenario 3 - HSI pullback to test the neckline
Purchase (30%).

Scenario 4 - HSI plunges below the neckline
Purchase when Fibonacci Retracement at 50% (40%).

Raffles Education Corp Limited

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 14:19:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper uptrend line
Support: Neckline, Lower uptrend line
Comment: A breakout above Neckline - move up to test Upper uptrend line. Symmetrical triangle's target is at $0.57. If it plunges below Neckline - move down to test Lower uptrend line.

Dow Jones Industrial

noreply@blogger.com (Alvis) — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 23:08:00 +0000

Resistance: Upper downtrend line
Support: 50dMA, 7286
Comment: If it surges above Upper downtrend line - more upside, otherwise move down to test the support levels.