A Large Regular

2009-07-11T21:47:00.005-04:00

Charlton Heston

Glenn Reynolds posted Charlton Heston's "cold dead hands" speech and notes that the speech could be considered mainstream today. This brought to mind something I posted about Heston a while back:

It seems to me that the political voyage of Charlton Heston is a reflection of the changes many in the country have also undergone these past 50 years. Heston was a civil rights crusader (he marched with Martin Luther king Jr.) and the Democrats asked him to run for Senate in California in 1969 but the left turn of the Democratic Party turned him off and made him more conservative in his views.

In the early 60's - Heston could have been the face of the Democratic Party. Now he's viewed as an icon of arch-conservatism. When you know the history - the transformation is enlightening. Chances are that Heston always remained the same person but it was the Democratic Party that changed.

Charlton Heston may be more relevant today than he ever was.

2009-07-11T18:35:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Tonight's pick of the day (POTD) is the Blue Jays (-$120) with hot rookie Ricky Romero facing off against the Orioles and Rich Hill who has not lasted longer than 4 innings in any of his last 4 home starts.

POTD record 11-4 and plus a mythical $633

2009-07-11T12:19:00.005-04:00

Lugo vs Betancourt

The Mariners wanted to dump Yuniesky Betancourt and - voila! - the Royals obliged by taking his contract off their hands. The Royals gave up a couple of flotsam and jetsam prospects and will have to pay just $7 million of Betancourt's remaining contract ($2 mil in 2010, $3 million in 2011 and a $2 mil buyout in 2012). Joe Posnanski explains just how horrible Betancourt really is.

Reviewing the facts - I have to wonder where the Red Sox were on this deal? They are just as anxious to dump Julio Lugo and despite Lugo's current reputation - he's a much better player than Betancourt.

Fielding - Lugo has a -6.8 URZ this year and a -1.2 in 2008 but he's also been injured. What excuse does Betancourt have for his -8.3 2009 and -12.6 2008 numbers?

Base Running - Lugo is 15 for 19 in stolen base attempts the past two years. Betancourt is 7 for 12 in the same time period.

Hitting - Lugo may not be a great hitter but he's still better than Betancourt.

Sure Lugo is much older but honestly either player is just a rental for the Royals and the Red Sox could have made the finances work so that the Royals would be stuck for just $7 million overall for Lugo (same as Betancourt). Lugo's the better player for the Royals. I think this was a missed opportunity for the Red Sox to shed Lugo's contract.

2009-07-11T10:37:00.004-04:00

Red Sox Magic Number - 76

With the Red Sox win and Yankees loss - the Red Sox magic number is now 76.

The atomic number of osmium is 76. Osmium is a member of the platinum family and is the densest natural element. The second densest natural element is sports talk radio discussions regarding the trade value of Roy Halliday.

The number 76 also happens to be the registry number of the U.S. Navy's nuclear aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76). We could sure use a guy like Ronald Reagan at the helm of the country today.

2009-07-11T09:41:00.010-04:00

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

In 2006 the Red Sox picked Kristopher Johnson with the 40th pick of the MLB draft. With the next pick the Yankees took Joba Chamberlain. Johnson is 3-9 with a 6.14 ERA for AAA Pawtucket... I'm a Nathan Fillion fan and I would pay money to see this movie. Nathan Fillion as the Green Lantern. Pretty impressive trailer. Too bad it was put together by a fan and isn't real... Scrabble Champ - Toronto's Marc Rzepczynski has a tough name to spell but in Scrabble it would be worth just 38 pts - the Braves Javier Vazquez's name is worth 43 points... A vastly underrated movie from the 90's was Barbarians at the Gate. You never see this movie anywhere and that's too bad. James Garner was great in this HBO flick... Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde - going into yesterday's game, Vernon Wells of Toronto is hitting just .172 at home but a smoking .337 on the road.... I caught the pilot of Warehouse 13 and I must say I was impressed. This series has lots of potential and I'll be sure to tune in for future episodes. The casting is very good and you can't help but like Saul Rubinek as Artie Nielsen... The American League record for pitchers used in a season is 32. The Indians have now already used 26 and we're not even at the All-Star break... In case you haven't been following it or haven't heard - Mariners Single-A prospect James McOwen had his hitting streak end at 45 games last night...

2009-07-11T03:38:00.004-04:00

Matt Holliday's Diminishing HR Power

Back in April I predicted that:

I expect Matt Holliday to be a bust in the American League. I wish there was some place that would take a prop bet that at least one Rockies outfielder will have as many or more HR than Holliday this season.

I was right in my prediction so far (Brad Hawpe has 13 HR to Holliday's 8) but I didn't spot the trend. Now the trend is painfully obvious.

In 2007 Holliday hit a HR on average every 17.67 at bats. In 2008 it was a HR every 21.56 AB. This season it just one HR every 37.75 AB. If the progression continues then in 2010 we can expect to see Matt Holliday with Coco Crisp-like power numbers. I'm not even sure that even a return to the NL at this point will stem the tide for Holliday. We may have already seen his peak years.

2009-07-10T18:38:00.004-04:00

Pick of the Day

So the Mariners were up 3-0 going into the 9th inning and just then David Aardsma's fairy dust, deal with the devil or whatever faded away or maybe suddenly he just remembered "Hey, I'm David Aardsma and I'm really not that good" but the result was the Orioles scoring 5 runs in the top of the 9th to snatch my POTD victory out of my greedy little hands. It was like a kick in the gut. I couldn't even bring myself to make a POTD yesterday.

Tonight we are getting back on the horse and taking Tampa Bay at home (-$160) against the A's and the rookie Vin Mazzaro who has a 6.35 ERA in his last 3 starts.

POTD record 10-4 and plus a mythical $533

2009-07-10T08:56:00.003-04:00

Moneyball Back On?

It looks like Moneyball is not dead as a feature film. I enjoy Aaron Sorkin's writing of dialogue as much or more than the next guy but I still don't see Moneyball as worthy of being made into a picture.

I'm a big Michael Lewis fan and I'd suggest The New New Thing focusing in on the character of Jim Clark or a adaptation of The Blind Side as two Lewis books more worthy of being made into a film than Moneyball.

2009-07-09T22:52:00.001-04:00

Telly Savalas - If

Who love ya baby!

2009-07-09T08:20:00.004-04:00

The 10% Tripwire

Mark Penn argues that 10% unemployment is a psychological tripwire number that has "the potential to undermine the hard-won confidence enjoyed by the Obama administration." I agree that 10% unemployment would be both a real problem and a psychological watershed but I don't agree that President Obama has any "hard-won confidence" from the American people. More like squandered mis-placed enthusiasm. Penn then goes on to argue that if that 10% number became a reality - then President Obama could be forced into the following course of action:

First, the administration could pitch another stimulus package, in the form of direct, immediate tax rebates or some other, more tangible, measures, such as increased federal money to cash-starved states and localities. The Republicans are now on record in opposition to any stimulus. So they would be forced to vote against temporary tax cuts or money to the states, votes that could be problematic for them in the midterms.

Yeah another stimulus package because the first one worked so well. Second - Republicans would be right to be against throwing more money (that we don't have by the way) at the problem but not against tax cuts. Can Mark Penn be that thick?

2009-07-08T15:51:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day is the Mariners (-$120) vs Baltimore. The Orioles are 7-17 against the AL West, 6-16 in day games and just 1-11 in series finales on the road.

Last night the White Sox beat Cleveland to raise the POTD record to 10-3 and plus a mythical $653

2009-07-08T14:22:00.003-04:00

Nails Bankrupt

Morally and financially? Former Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Lenny Dykstra filed for Chapter 11 U.S. Bankruptcy Court protection in California on Tuesday.

I sort of feel bad about this - not because I like Dykstra - because I know he did this to get out of paying people who he owed money. This reminds me so much of Jack Clark and how he used bankruptcy to get out of paying a lot of "little people" who did work for him.

HT Digital Sports Daily

2009-07-08T12:12:00.002-04:00

You Learn Something New Every Day

Until today I had never heard of Tusculum College of Tennessee. Now I know that it is Tennessee's oldest college and that it's motto "Sit Lux" means "Let There Be Light" (although Fiat Lux seems a more common version of that phrase among college mottos).

According to Wikipedia the "original Tusculum was a city near Rome, Italy and home to Roman scholar and philosopher Cicero."

You learn something new every day.

2009-07-08T09:50:00.002-04:00

Cleveland Indians

Since being one game away from going to the World Series in the autumn of 2007 - the Cleveland Indians have gone a combined 114-135 (that's a winning percentage of .463). A record like that won't keep a manager in his job. Despite Mark Shapiro's statement of support - I'd guess that Eric Wedge will be out of a job well before the Indians report to Spring Training.

If there was any justice then Mark Shapiro should be joining Wedge on the unemployment line.

2009-07-07T18:24:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Tonight's pick of the day (POTD) is the White Sox with Mark Buehrle starting against the Indians with Jeremy Sowers. Chicago is a -$153 favorite which is a much better price than the Red Sox -$260 (should be a lock with Beckett pitching).

Buehrle is in a 11-1 / 2.38 ERA stretch pitching at home. The White Sox are hot lately (7-3 in their last 10) and hot when Buehrle pitches (12-4 in his starts this year). Buehrle is also 6-0 pitching at night this season. Meanwhile Jeremy Sowers has never been able to beat the White Sox (0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in 6 career starts vs Chicago).

All signs point to the White Sox.

That doesn't mean that I'm over confident though. Baseball is still baseball and all signs pointed to a Colorado victory last night and while they did win - they needed some luck to pull out a 1-0 W.

POTD record - 9-3 and plus a mythical $553

2009-07-07T17:23:00.003-04:00

Andy Marte's Not Dead Yet

Andy Marte was considered a bust after failing to live up to his prospect reputation for the Indians but don't bury him yet. According to the Indians:

Yesterday, INF ANDY MARTE was named the International League’s Batter of the Week for the period of June 29-July 5 as he batted .458 w/ 2HR & 6RBI becoming the IL’s 1st back-to-back Player of the Week since May 2006 (Cole Hamels, WB)

Back to back International League batter of the week - not bad. Maybe he'll help out the Indians yet.

2009-07-07T09:56:00.002-04:00

The Persian Domino Effect?

Christopher Hitchens has a column worth the read. He asks:

Did the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime, and the subsequent holding of competitive elections in which many rival Iraqi Shiite parties took part, have any germinal influence on the astonishing events in Iran?

The answer seems to be absolutely yes. I wonder if George Bush will get credit from the historians for that?

2009-07-07T08:43:00.002-04:00

Red Sox Magic Number - 80

The Red Sox magic number now stands at 80. That happens to be the number worn by all-time Patriots great Troy Brown.

Troy Brown is from South Carolina just like soon to be enshrined Hall of Famer Jim Rice. Troy Brown is fast like Jacoby Ellsbury. Troy Brown was a small man who excelled at a big man's sport just like Dustin Pedroia. Troy Brown led by quiet example like Jon Lester. Troy Brown was an all-time leader in some franchise records and fan favorite but just not of Hall of Fame caliber just like Tim Wakefield.

The Red Sox are very much like Troy Brown. Troy Brown wore number 80.

2009-07-06T18:25:00.003-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Rockies over the Nationals. The price is high (Rockies -$200) but I feel pretty good about this one. Jason Marquis is starting for the Rox and Washington has struggled against Colorado.

POTD record - 8-3 and plus a mythical $453

2009-07-06T08:39:00.003-04:00

The New New Thing

I'm a fan of Michael Lewis and when I had the chance to pick up his 2000 book The New New Thing: A Silicon Valley Story I jumped at it.

Lewis' modus operandi is to have a subject and illustrate that subject through the lens of two main characters while bouncing between these characters with chapters in between discussing examples of how the subject hand is illustrated by various people. In Moneyball the subject was statistics and how they were changing baseball. The two main characters were Billy Beane and Bill James. Players like Chad Bradford and Kevin Youkilis were used to illustrate the main point of the book.

In The New New Thing one main character is obviously Jim Clark but the second main character is not so obviously Jim Clark's new sailboat the Hyperion. Silicon Valley big shots and start-ups are used to illustrate the main point of the book of how the new, new thing had created the Internet IPO boom and changed the way business is done in the modern day.

It was interesting to look back at the Internet boom of the 90's through the lens of Jim Clark - a giant of an American Industrialist who does not get his proper recognition. All the time spent discussing the new state of the art sailboat the Hyperion - not so interesting. I recommend this book but because Lewis has a skill in telling a story but it wasn't his best work.

2009-07-06T07:54:00.004-04:00

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

If Tampa Bay's Carlos Pena is not on the All-Star team - he'll be the first player leading the AL in HR not to make the roster since Detroit's Mickey Tettleton in 1993... More than half of Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn's plate appearances do not involve a member of the other team (other than the pitcher and catcher). Close to 51% of Dunn's PA result in either a walk, a strikeout or a HR.... The Tampa Bay Rays will send 4 players to the All-Star game with all of them being under 30-years old. Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist are all under 30-years old. Carl Crawford of the Rays won’t be 28 until August 5th. He’s been in the league so long that you forget that he’s still that young.... There's been lots of sturm and drang about steroids users Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez not making the All-Star team but what about Ryan Franklin of the Cardinals? He was suspended in 2005 for steroids use and he was named in the Mitchell Report. Has he passed some sort of probation period or do people just care about steroids users who hit home runs?

2009-07-05T22:39:00.005-04:00

Sarah Palin and the Tea Party

Over at Instapundit I saw lots of speculation about Sarah Palin having resigned to possibly found a third party to confront the Democrats and Republicans in the 2010 and 2012 elections. The idea is that Sarah Palin may form a formalized Tea Party.

It should be remembered that the Republican Party was once a third party itself. When it started in 1854 the main issue was slavery but the party was also interested in the well-being of small business and the middle class. The issues that this new Republican Party were attractive to many voters from both of the existing political parties and by 1860 this new third party had elected Abraham Lincoln as President.

The Tea Party would have a single main issue - over-taxation and an out of control government bureaucracy with waste the rule and not the exception. This issue is appealing to members of both parties (not just Republicans). The abuse Palin would receive at the hands of the MSM wouldn't even be worse than the press that Abraham Lincoln received from the Democratic leaning press of his day.

Could the new Tea Party do in half the time what it took the Republicans 6 years to accomplish a century and a half ago? Why not? Back in 1854 I bet not many thought the new Republican Party would have success defeating the mighty Whig Party who had just elected 3 out of the previous 4 Presidents of the United States. But they did. Why not Sarah Palin and a Tea Party?

2009-07-05T16:17:00.004-04:00

Thoughts on the NL All-Star Roster

You can find the full NL roster here.

Some thoughts on the NL selections. You could argue that Benjie Molina is having a better season than his brother Yadier but that's a coin flip at best and what the heck - they are keeping it in the family. Orlando Hudson started off hot but has really cooled off. He's probably getting the Tim Wakefield good guy slot.

Was Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero more deserving than teammate Johnny Cueto or did Cuerto get stuck because of the arbitrary ratio of starters to closers? Ryan Franklin's not one of the 10 best pitchers in the NL. Johan Santana made the team based upon past performance but adding him or Ryan Franklin probably cost Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo a spot on the roster.

An argument could be made that Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are more deserving than Ryan Zimmerman but Zimmerman is the Nationals sole representative and all three players are very close in value. There some slim pickens for outfield in the NL - isn't there? You could argue Matt Kemp over Hunter Pence but that just points out how thin the position is. That will have to boost Matt Holliday's trade value.

I'm still amused at the fact that the Cubs with their $135 million payroll have to use the "every team gets a representative" rule to get Ted Lilly on the roster.

2009-07-05T15:46:00.001-04:00

Thoughts on the AL All-Star Team

You can find the full roster here.

In my opinion - Ian Kinsler definitely got jobbed by the selections. He should be the starting 2nd baseman. I'm a Red Sox fan but Dustin Pedroia doesn't deserve it this year. Kinsler was more deserving than his teammate Michael Young but Young got the nod probably because the team needed another 3rd baseman (which in turn jobbed Chone Figgins of the Angels).

Does Josh Hamilton deserve the starting position given all the time he missed? Did Curtis Granderson get the nod over teammate Miguel Cabrera because he was more likable? Or because the team had too many 1st basemen? There is also no way Granderson should have made the team over Adam Lind. Hamilton should use his health as an excuse to let either Kinsler or Lind take his spot.

Excellent arguments could also be made for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers (where would they be without him this season) and Russell Branyan of the Mariners.

2009-07-05T11:24:00.006-04:00

Pick of the Day

Today's pick of the day (POTD) is the Cardinals with Chris Carpenter against the Reds with Bronson Arroyo. The Cards are a -$141 favorite and I'm counting on Chris Carpenter returning to his winning ways and Bronson Arroyo sticking to his recent slump.

I made two mistakes yesterday. First I should have made the over (61.5 hot dogs) at Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest my POTD. Going over was a lock (the winner ate 68 hot dogs). Second my friend Pete does what he calls a "reverse parlay" where he picks four teams and then also bets the other sides in a second parlay because in his experience he's been all or nothing too many times. Yesterday I did a 4 team parlay and came up with nothing. I had Boston, Atlanta, the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. All four lost. If I did Pete's reverse parlay as insurance - I'd be sitting pretty today.

POTD record - 7-3 and plus a mythical $353