Peter Guyer will present “How to Successfully Develop and Execute an Export Sales Program” at the Natural Food Products Seminar in San Francisco May 21-22: http://www.naturalconsulting.com/seminars/sales-seminar-networking-event/

Erin Smith of AMI (center) promoted Oregon Fruit Products Company, an AMI branded client, at the Hotel & Food Exhibition (HOFEX) which started today in Hong Kong. HOFEX is one of the world’s largest trade shows for the food and hospitality industry. This year about 35,000 food and beverage industry professionals from 85 countries are expected to visit the show. AMI is assisting Oregon Fruit Products to develop a Greater China market entry strategy and implementation plan.

Singapore has long been a frontrunner in retail trends and for good reason. As a relatively open port with 99% of imports entering duty-free1, the “Gateway to Southeast Asia” has been able to enjoy a host of innovative products from around the world. This demand is driven mainly by an affluent domestic population with additional support from a substantial expatriate population.

Though competition is strong, US brands and products are well-received in this wealthy city-state. In 2011, 10.8% of Singapore’s imports came from the United States, more than any other country2. Over US$12.1 billion were food and beverage products. While it must be noted that some of these products are re-exported to neighboring countries, Singapore …Read More »]]>

Singapore has long been a frontrunner in retail trends and for good reason. As a relatively open port with 99% of imports entering duty-free¹, the “Gateway to Southeast Asia” has been able to enjoy a host of innovative products from around the world. This demand is driven mainly by an affluent domestic population with additional support from a substantial expatriate population.

Though competition is strong, US brands and products are well-received in this wealthy city-state. In 2011, 10.8% of Singapore’s imports came from the United States, more than any other country². Over US$12.1 billion were food and beverage products. While it must be noted that some of these products are re-exported to neighboring countries, Singapore relies on imports because of its lack of domestic producers.

Singapore’s government is preparing for a strong rise in population, expecting the city-state to be home to 6.9 million residents by 2030³. This would be an increase of nearly 30% from the current population of 5.35 million. Since Singapore experiences one of the lowest birth rates in the world (224th according to the CIA World Fact Book), most of this growth is expected to come from foreign immigrants. With 2012 GDP per capita reported to be over US$60,0004, Singapore’s residents are primed to open their wallets for new and exciting food and beverage products. In addition, the age of marriage has been slowly rising to 30 years for males and 28 for females5, translating to high-earning singles who are eager to enjoy the high life and associated products such as wines and spirits, fine cheeses and meats, and other exotic imported fare.

While other Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Malaysia are quickly learning to provide Singapore with regional options that appeal to the value-oriented customer, there is still ample opportunity for US food and beverage to experience success in the market as well. US-branded products are seen as being high-quality and can be partially American expatriates. As 60% of the food and beverage retail market is controlled by modern retailers such as Fairprice and Cold Storage/Giant6, it is important to be prepared to fully invest in the Singaporean market such as commitment to promotional campaigns.

Singapore’s trade-friendly economy and a young, single and well-financed population make the city-state an excellent candidate for US products such as snacks, breakfast cereals, fresh and dried fruits, ice cream, and processed meat.

¹http://export.gov/singapore/doingbusinessinsingapore/traderegulationscustomsandstandards/index.asp
²https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sn.html
³http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/popinbrief2012a.pdf

This trending consumption and development of Western fast-food chains are directly correlated to the lifestyle changes over a generation where oil wealth and social life revolves around …Read More »]]> What started with the influx of foreign workers and now the expansion of the Middle East, the Arabian Gulf has launched several western niche fast-food brands. Franchises such as Shake Shack from New York City, South St. Burger from Canada, Denver’s Smashburger and New Zealand’s Burgerfuel are among the few new restaurants that are seen throughout the region. As one of the first brands to open in the UAE, Kentucky Fried Chicken had the largest revenue of all fast-food outlets in a US$2.72bn market in 2011.¹

This trending consumption and development of Western fast-food chains are directly correlated to the lifestyle changes over a generation where oil wealth and social life revolves around the region’s huge shopping malls. Many locals spend much of their evenings out, even on weekdays, spending time in the shopping malls and dining in the mall food courts. According to a survey by MasterCard, Arabian Gulf consumers were the top three spenders on restaurants worldwide – UAE diners spent an average of $229 per month, Qataris averaged $211 per month and Kuwaitis spent $196 per month. They also discovered that 88% of the population dined in shopping mall food courts last year.

The rise of Western Quick-service-restaurant chains in the Middle East is also a result of the current economic situation in the US. Andy Wiederhorn, chairman of Fatburger, stated, “Despite the recent downturn in the domestic economy, the international market is on fire. The Middle East and Asia Pacific are becoming exciting territories for us. Our current locations in these regions have been extremely well received.” With this type of response, the burger chain plans to open 17 restaurants in Saudi Arabia, 5 in Kuwait, 8 in the UAE, and has signed deals for 30 stores in Qatar, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Oman over the next couple of years.

Many of these fast-food brands see Middle East expansion as a way to make up for softness in Western markets. In Saudi Arabia alone, Euromonitor analysts expect to develop into a US$4.5 billion fast food market over the next three years. “As companies look for growth in sales, it is natural for them to look to new markets,” says Wharton marketing professor Barbara Kahn. “Some retail products are more universal than others, and the ones that are, are more likely to go global. Also, if they have some kind of differential advantage relative to the local competition, you’ll see more global outreach. In this case, American cuisine is presumably the draw.”

Not only U.S. fast-food chain stores but also U.S. packaged food and beverage brands are in high demand in the Middle East. These brand owners would also do well to implement a strategy for market entry and development in the fast-growing Middle East consumer markets.

¹ Knowledge@Wharton (2013, February 25). Fast-food brands bite into the region. The National Business, p. 07.

More than 2500 of world’s thought leaders are currently in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland for the 43rd Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. Influential members of the global community are congregated there to present and discuss the top issues currently impacting the world’s economy under the theme “Resilient Dynamism”- from how Europe can rebuild its competitiveness to the importance of healthcare and sustainability of the global food system.

Today it was reported that Africa is now the world’s second fastest growing economy, with expected GDP growth of 5.3% this year. “We realize that intra-trade is not enough and are working hard on that.” stated Jacob G. Zuma, President of South Africa. He conveyed that the conflict in Africa is …Read More »]]>

More than 2500 of world’s thought leaders are currently in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland for the 43rd Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. Influential members of the global community are congregated there to present and discuss the top issues currently impacting the world’s economy under the theme “Resilient Dynamism”- from how Europe can rebuild its competitiveness to the importance of healthcare and sustainability of the global food system.

Today it was reported that Africa is now the world’s second fastest growing economy, with expected GDP growth of 5.3% this year. “We realize that intra-trade is not enough and are working hard on that.” stated Jacob G. Zuma, President of South Africa. He conveyed that the conflict in Africa is only one concern of the continent. “We are also dealing with the economic issues. We’ve just discussed and agreed to integrate three of the five economic regions, creating a free trade area of more than half a billion people.” With continued efforts to improve political stability and remove barriers to trade, AMI believes that Africa will become a rapid growth area for U.S. food and beverage exporters in the next 2-5 years.  Despite the tumultuous consequences of the “Arab Spring,” North African markets such as Morocco and Egypt will become major importers of U.S. processed foods.

Read about the above topics and much more: http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2013

Despite the short-term decreasing growth rates that India and the other BRIC countries (Brazil-Russia-China) experienced in 2011-2012, India’s medium-term growth outlook is positive due to a young population, healthy savings and investment rates, and increasing integration into the global economy.1 India’s economy grew 7-9% annually between 2000 and 2009, reaching 10.1% GDP growth in 2010. However, in 2011, the country’s GDP growth rate has slowed to a still-enviable 6.8%. The relative slowdown was due to little progress on economic reforms and persistently high inflation and interest rates, which decreased the value of the Indian rupee. India forecasts the economy will expand 5.7%-5.9% this …Read More »]]> With a population of 1.2 billion people, India represents the largest democracy in the world, and one of the biggest emerging markets.

Despite the short-term decreasing growth rates that India and the other BRIC countries (Brazil-Russia-China) experienced in 2011-2012, India’s medium-term growth outlook is positive due to a young population, healthy savings and investment rates, and increasing integration into the global economy.¹ India’s economy grew 7-9% annually between 2000 and 2009, reaching 10.1% GDP growth in 2010. However, in 2011, the country’s GDP growth rate has slowed to a still-enviable 6.8%. The relative slowdown was due to little progress on economic reforms and persistently high inflation and interest rates, which decreased the value of the Indian rupee. India forecasts the economy will expand 5.7%-5.9% this fiscal year.²

Source: International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from: The New York Times.

In January 2012, the government of India approved 100% foreign direct investments (FDI) in single brand retail. This creates the opportunity for international retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour to enter the Indian market autonomously and without a local joint venture partner. Last year, Wal-Mart entered the Indian market in a JV with Bharti Enterprises Ltd, creating Bharti Wal-Mart Pvt. Ltd., which operates 20 retail stores in India.

FDI in retail chains will transform the Indian food and beverage market, which has already seen significant changes due to a strong increase in urban middle class consumers who are seeking new imported products. Currently more than 350 million Indians live in urban areas. These demographic changes lead to more focus on convenience and healthy foods. Among the urban population there are an increasing number of nuclear families and working women; this represents a shift from the traditional large extended families where women were responsible for cooking meals and buying groceries.

In 2011, Indian food retail sales were estimated to be US$270 billion, 60% of total retail sales (food and non-food). Per capita annual expenditures on food is approximately US$225, which represents a very high percentage considering that an estimated 800 million people live in rural areas and do not have access to retail stores.³

The Indian food retail industry has traditionally been defined as “unorganized” because of the severe segmentation of this category. The retail sector is dominated by kirana stores (small, usually family-owned shops which sell groceries and other sundries). Kirana stores will be the most affected by the new FDI in retail, even if their convenient locations (both urban and rural), lower real estate costs, and other services will help them remain competitive. For this reason, U.S. food and beverage brands seeking to export to India should not disregard this traditional “unorganized” sales channel.

The foodservice sector is also expanding in India, and estimated to be worth US$13.77 billion. According to a Franchise India report released at the Indian Restaurant Congress this year, the foodservice channel will continue to have a compound annual growth rate of 17% for the foreseeable future. The foodservice industry is expected to reach US$25.16 billion by 2015.⁴ India is fast becoming an important investment destination for U.S. foodservice chain companies who have recently entered the country, such as Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts, as well as quick service restaurant (QSR) brands that want to stabilize their presence there, such as McDonald’s and Domino’s.

Sources: ifood.tv, gettingmoreawesome.com

India has been loosening its import restrictions and opening its market to food imports for the past 10 years. Tariffs are still high and import requirements very strict on several products. In 2011, American exports of processed food to India amounted to US$177.7 million. However, as the Indian society changes and the country experiences continual robust economic growth, India is increasingly becoming a very important market for US food and beverage products. As the middle class grows and experiences greater exposure to international cuisine, their demand for and ability to purchase imported products increases as well. Consumer-ready food products such as apples, grapes and fruit juices (tariff rates of 50%, 30%, and 30%, respectively) have high potential in the Indian market. Snack foods are also becoming a hot item as more of the population looks for on-the-go food items. Almonds and pistachios (tariff rates of 10%) are popular imported nuts while traditional items such as potato chips and cookies continue to be in strong demand. Other items such as chocolates, pastas, sauces and gourmet cheeses are also growing in favor by the 300 million Indians that compose the middle class.⁵

India’s total food market is expected to reach US$330 billion in 2013 and nearly triple to US$900 billion by 2020. Processed foods currently make up just a fraction of the total food market at US$40 billion; however, 2020 projections show processed foods growing to one-third of the total food market: US$300 billion.⁶ At this rate, India is on course to be the 5th largest consumer food market in the world by 2025, providing a compelling reason for US food and beverage exporters to begin preparing for their market entry strategies.

Peter M. Guyer and Giulia Balzola

Athena Marketing International (AMI) is an export marketing, business development, and consulting firm serving U.S. food, beverage & consumer products manufacturers.

www.athenaintl.com
Tel. +1 (206) 749-9255
info@athenaintl.com

¹ CME Group, BRIC Update, (2012)
² Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2012
³ USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN Report, India 2012
⁴ Indian Ministry of Processing Food Industry (http://mofpi.nic.in)
⁵ Food Export Northeast
⁶ India Brand Equity Foundation 2010; Fine Food India 2012; McKinsey Report : The Bird of Gold 2007

It is impressive, the strides mankind has made. Yet it is also astonishing that there still …Read More »]]> Now that we have wrapped up 2012 and embarked on yet another year, it is an appropriate time to reflect on the year’s events and achievements. The last twelve months were full of newsworthy events in the United States and around the world, but because the media seems to prefer coverage of tragedy and devastation, it is easy to forget the progress our civilization is making. Many exciting and groundbreaking events happened over the course of 2012 including the landing of NASA’s Curiosity rover on Mars, record-breaking moments at the London Olympics, and major scientific strides in the treatment and prevention of diseases such as Alzheimer’s, multiple sclerosis, and HIV.

It is impressive, the strides mankind has made. Yet it is also astonishing that there still exists such a divide in wealth and development. The one thing that remains unchanged is the presence of the global consumer and the inherent aspiration for more. As we consider some of the preferences that emerged over the past year, we are able to predict five of the top consumer trends that will undoubtedly characterize the year 2013:

1. Emerging Markets  Matter: Consumers in emerging markets will continue to enjoy an increase in disposable incomes. Latin America’s disposable income grew 29.5% in real terms from 2006-11 while Asia Pacific was close behind with a growth rate of 26.6% in the same time period (Source: Euromonitor 2012).  This growing middle class has been eager to flex their purchasing power as they aspire to move up the consumer ranks. Additionally, the 2012 World Wealth Report indicated that the number of high net worth individuals (known as HNWIs with liquid assets of at least US$1.0mn) living in Asia Pacific has overtaken that of North America for the first time with total wealth of US$10.7tn. While many of these HNWIs are concentrated in the developed market of Japan, China is home to the second largest population. In addition, significant growth in the number of HNWIs occurred in India and Indonesia. This increase in wealth directly correlates to increases in discretionary spending such as dining out which McKinsey & Co. forecasts to grow at 10.2% per year over the next decade.
2. Healthy Living: Though a common trend among developing countries for years now, the significance of health and wellness has begun to reach consumers across the globe. As consumers move to urban areas and earn more disposable income, they have better access to healthy, good-for-you products. The global retail sales of food and beverages for health and wellness (natural, functional, better-for-you, and allergen-free) was on pace to exceed US$663bn in 2012. This is up from US$524bn in 2007 and US$375bn in 2002. (Source: Euromonitor 2012).
3. Green for Good: Sustainable, earth-friendly products continued to expand their reach across the globe as well. As disposable income of emerging markets continued to grow, so too did the ability of consumers to make eco-conscious purchasing decisions. A Euromonitor International survey found that over 70% of global respondents would be willing to pay a slight premium for a “green” product than one that did not possess those features. As an example, the global organic baby food market has grown at over 5% annually for the last nine years with only the exception of the recession year of 2008-09. The global “green” market is still in its infancy, but can be valuable for those brands looking to differentiate themselves in developed markets.
4. The Urban Migration: Beginning in 2008, there were more people living in urban areas than there were in rural communities. Currently, there are about 3.3 billion people living in cities. By 2030, it is expected that more than 60% of the population will reside in urban areas (Source: The World Bank 2012). As more of the population shifts from subsistence living to working in industrial or professional roles, their material needs are also changing. The demand for products that provide value through convenience (such as on-the-go food and apartment storage solutions) is growing rapidly. Datamonitor expects these urban customers to incorporate more dining out into their lifestyles and forecasts that the world foodservice industry will reach US$992bn by 2014.
5. Constantly Connected: The internet is not yet worldwide, but its saturation is accelerating. From 2006-2011, internet usage grew at a rate of 96.7%. It has not only become an important mode of communication, but is also responsible for retail growth in the form of online sales. In 2012, global online sales were US$453.6bn, up 30.5% from US$347.4bn in 2010 (Source: Euromonitor 2012). The advent of the smartphone now facilitates consumption on the go with apps for shopping, sharing, and mobile payments. In October 2012, the number of smartphone users reached 1 billion. The smartphone is still considered a luxury item in many markets, making it an even more coveted accessory for the emerging middle class. A Keller Fay Group study found that internet users mention an average of 7.6 food and dining brands each week via social media, making these newly connected consumers a prime opportunity for food and beverage markets to create brand advocates.

As we consider these top global trends in consumption, it is fascinating to consider how these developments will impact the global economy over the course of the year. 2013 promises to continue to provide challenges in the marketplace as the global consumer becomes richer, savvier, and increasingly selective. The number and strength of food and beverage manufacturers is growing, but there is still plenty of opportunity for the company that is willing to understand what the consumer wants and needs in for his or her modern lifestyle.

Saudi Arabia’s population is about 25 million, which is expected to double within the next 20 years. Almost 73% of the total population in the country is comprised of Saudi nationals while the rest are foreign workers. The population …Read More »]]> Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Like the rest of the Persian Gulf region, Saudi Arabia saw an explosion in consumer spending over the past decade due to the bourgeoning global energy demand. Per capita income is about US$15,000. GDP has grown a robust 16.9% in the past year and is expected to grow 8.8% next year. Not all growth is oil-related: non-oil private sector growth was about 11% last year.[1] Saudi Arabia arguably is one of the fastest-growing and least risky emerging market investments.

Saudi Arabia’s population is about 25 million, which is expected to double within the next 20 years. Almost 73% of the total population in the country is comprised of Saudi nationals while the rest are foreign workers. The population is growing at a rate of 2.3% annually, with 70% under the age of 30.[2] This bodes well for Western food products and restaurant concepts.

Per capita food consumption through 2015 is forecast to grow 7.31%, outperforming other Gulf countries which have relied heavily on expatriate consumption. In particular, the confectionery category is expected to grow 9.44% annually for the next few years. While consumption trends are positive, it is important to note that Saudi consumers are fairly price sensitive compared to most of their regional peers, and therefore products at the low end of the price range are likely to remain particularly popular.

Grocery and hypermarket sales are expected to grow a sizzling 14% annually over the next five years. New store openings across these channels will continue to support the structural transition from unorganized to formal retailing. Organized retail currently accounts for only about half of total grocery sales; however, with the young population and high income growth, modern retailing is forecast to contribute 70% by 2019.

However, given their high exposure to Western-style restaurants and diet, sedentary lifestyle, and expansion of supermarkets, Saudis have one of the highest obesity rates in the world. According to the Ministry of Health (MOH), 51% of Saudi women, 45% of Saudi men, 36% of teenage boys and 29% of girls are obese. The country’s overall diabetes rate is 30% and growing rapidly, particularly among children (Saudi youth prefer to eat Western-style fast food rather than traditional cuisine).[3]

Therefore, Saudi consumers of diet foods and nutrition products are described as health conscious, living in big cities, educated, medium to high income and prefer shopping in class A supermarkets over wholesalers. Food products in general, including diet foods, produced in the United States are generally viewed as meeting higher quality standards compared to imports from other countries and those produced locally. The Saudi market offers strong potential for increased imports of diet foods over the next five years, especially condiments, dairy products, sodas, drink mixes, snacks, and confectionery goods.

Despite the enormous growth opportunities, Saudi Arabia is a difficult market to enter. All products must have Arabic text on the packaging, follow a rigorous import licensing procedure, and must be halal (all foods are considered halal except swine/pork, alcohol, improperly slaughtered animals, carnivorous animals, and food contaminated by any of the aforementioned items). Many manufacturers take the next step and obtain halal certification which assures Muslim customers that the product is permitted. Exporting companies should also expect to support a sustained marketing campaign once on the retail shelf. Saudi retailers demand not only listing fees but continual marketing such as in-store sampling, temporary price promotions and advertising in store flyers. The investment for an imported brand is neither quick nor inexpensive; however, if a brand considers Saudi Arabia a strategic market and is patient and willing to commit to at least a 5-year plan, the market has been proven to be very profitable.

[1] Arab News, December 10, 2012, p. 14

[2] Business Monitor International – Agribusiness KSA Q4 2011 Report

[3] USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Gain Report, “Saudi Diet Food Market,” April 8, 2009

On a current swing through the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, I am witnessing strong growth in the retail and foodservice channels in the food & beverage industry. Large retailers are interested in listing unique, innovative products from the USA, and fast-food chains, bakeries and coffee shop chains are expanding aggressively and competing for Class A retail locations. The UAE growth is anticipated to exceed 3.3% this year and has emerged stronger after the real-estate boom and subsequent recession. The trade partners that I have met with thus far are all confident in their earning potential and expect continued rapid growth in the region.

For millennia the Arab people have been traders and mercantilists. They are savvy and shrewd in their negotiations, yet fair and willing to compromise. Despite repeated overtures by the Russian government for decades, none of the Middle …Read More »]]> Manama, Bahrain: Being an American business person in the Middle East today, one realizes a striking dichotomy. While foreign diplomats shuttle between Middle East capitals trying fervently to prevent further war and bloodshed, thousands more refugees are forced to leave their homelands due to senseless fighting, and CNN continues to debate the possibility of a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians – the root cause of most of the struggles in the Middle East and North Africa since World War I – the solution seems plain and obvious.

For millennia the Arab people have been traders and mercantilists. They are savvy and shrewd in their negotiations, yet fair and willing to compromise. Despite repeated overtures by the Russian government for decades, none of the Middle East countries have turned to communism (although several gladly accept Russian-made weapons and cash). Most Middle East countries are equally as capitalist as Western countries (and more so than some!). Most Middle East governments have done a spectacular job transitioning their countries from Bedouin backwaters to modern economies.

 As an American, I am warmly received. U.S. food and beverages are in high demand, as consumers here aspire to enjoy the same products as are consumed in the U.S. Without exception, people are friendly, hospitable and gracious. While not always agreeing with our policies, they talk openly about their thoughts and feelings toward America. It’s ironic that one can discover more about an Arab’s thoughts on a first dinner meeting than one’s neighbors in Seattle after years.

In order to truly flourish, Middle Eastern countries – including Israel – would be well served fighting less and trading more. Markets here have much to offer and even more to gain by re-allocating resources - including human capital - sharing goods and services, and focusing on building competitive advantages. AMI is doing its part in a small way, one bite at a time.