One should definitely take into account the tournament’s phase. Usually, the favorites in any championship start the season half-and-halfer, whereas the “inveterate” outsiders, on the contrary, can easily succeed in the beginning and even get to the top of the table. Teams whose lineups got noticeably renewed take time to show good team-work; hence, it is not surprising when teams stuffed with star level players suddenly stall at the start of the championship (or even longer). During this time, by the way, it is especially profitable to feed on bookmakers that overstate the coefficients for outsiders. In addition, a good number of sensational results occur on the early stages of cups (national, league or Euro cups), especially if the winner is decided in a single match: having underestimated the opponent, lacking motivation etc. In fact, in national cups and especially in league cups it is beneficial to bet against the favorites on any stage down to the quarterfinals. This is why choosing time for betting is essential.

The championship’s middle stage, which is approximately its second and third quarter, is usually very foreseeable: it gets more or less clear who claims what, and on the other hand, for the majority of teams there is no acute need in getting points, which liberates and gives more chances to take “own” points, i.e. win predictably.

However, the final stage (the last quarter) of a circular tournament is almost as hard to forecast, as the first one (unless it is a corrupted championship, where it is exactly the opposite – knowing all the backstage intrigues it is very easy to foresee): many teams gain a sense of increased commitment to the result, which was discussed earlier in this article.

News from the teams’ headquarters is by all means important information. However, if you are barely acquainted with the rivals in the match you are willing to bet on, names of disqualified, injured or players that lost their physical form will be of little help to you. It is essential to know in addition to everything else what position the unlucky player plays on, who can substitute him, and how it will affect the overall team state. More detailed news can be of assistance here; however, it is a lot easier to find information on European Cup players than on how things are going for an English 3rd division club. In such a case it is better to undervalue the importance of losing a particular player, since the team usually puts itself together and works its fingers to the bones often compensating the loss with increased dedication. Even a loss of the main goalkeeper, which is hard to compensate for even with increased reliability of defensive play, does not always influence the number of goals against: a lot of good goalkeepers sit on the bench waiting for a chance to shine.

Knowing The Stakes

The information about the meaning a particular match has for each of the teams cannot be left out of the evaluation, even though one should not overestimate its importance: if one of the teams has nothing to pursue, whereas the other one fights for something and needs points badly, things are not necessarily going to work out the way the second one needs them to: having eliminated purely sports-related factors (it often occurs that players not pressured by responsibility they have to gain points by any means possible tend to play in a more relaxed manner, enjoying the process so to say, and eventually defeat the psychologically constrained opponent that has the necessity to achieve a certain result), there are plenty of indirect factors to evaluate: the first team may be stimulated by the opponent’s competitors (which, by the way, is lawful), the relationship between these two clubs or with their competitors can be of such a nature that, for instance, one team will battle for the win even in a match that does not have any impact on its standings, especially if it is a derby, or the other way around, it can concede out of sympathy or friendly attitude. However, there can arise a situation when an outcome fully satisfies both teams (for example, one needs only one point to become champions and the other needs the same point not to get eliminated from the tournament), so, with a great probability the match will end exactly like that. Friendlies are a separate topic: matches between national teams can be more or less successfully predicted, knowing at least what lineups they have chosen, but predicting results of club teams during play-offs is a lost cause.

To be continued in Part 4.

Having chosen the betting events (matches), it is crucial to choose the outcomes of each one that you are going to bet on. Usually, the initial event outcome selection is based on intuition and the evaluation of coefficients on the “good/fair/low” principle (in the latter case, meaning if you consider the coefficient for a particular event outcome is far too low, it is better to search for a higher coefficient on other betting websites or even not to bet on this one at all), if only you have not chosen a match or an event outcome to bet on in advance, prior to looking at the line, based on statistical data or any other criteria for that matter. Anyway, intuition almost never comes all by itself: your intuitive opinion is consciously or subconsciously formed on the basis of objective (statistics, information about team conditions, injuries, disqualifications etc.) or, which is worse, – subjective (opinions of the majority, online bookmaking “experts”, “authorities” etc.) data. Very often it is both.

Using The Information

It is logical that visiting an online bookmaker is best when you already know which betting events and their outcomes you are going to bet on. In case of Internet bets it is, however, not that important, since you can analyze all the data you need in the process of making your event choices, if you do not regret dedicating extra time and money spent on the web. Basic information that players take into account when making a betting decision is, undoubtedly, statistical data: team standings, balance between home and away games, team performance indicators for the last games, history of rivalry between certain teams, etc. However, you should not overestimate the importance of such information: if all the game results or their absolute majority were subject to statistics, no one would accept any bets for them. Therefore statistical data should not play a decisive role in choosing what to bet on. In fact, no information (apart from that about a certain match being sold or the result agreed upon in advance) has to serve as a sole indicator: total evaluation has to be given based on the combined analysis of all the given information.

To be continued in Part 3.

The main rule is to bet only on those events that you know – not only heard that, for instance, this team is the favorite and wins the absolute majority of its matches, and that one does not really have any chances, or you have the championship table in front of you and believe that it is enough; but you possess sufficient amount of information about the teams’ current form, tournament positions, tasks and condition of the leading players, etc. The more information you have, the more objective will your match analysis be, and the more chances you have to choose the right outcome for your bet.

Choose Betting Events Wisely

First of all you have to choose your betting events from the line. Some “frequent bet makers” often bet on a lot of things they have at least some knowledge about (sometimes even worse – simply a lot of things). It is wrong. It is essential to choose betting events very carefully – usually, by your level of confidence in the outcome of one or another betting event (it is better not to use only your intuition, but to have a logical base for your decision, even though eliminating intuition completely is also wrong, especially if it really works for you). Coefficients do not have to play a significant role here; in fact, if there are no outcomes with coefficients that you agree to, you can (and should) leave these bets out. On the other hand, some betting events can attract you only with a coefficient for one or another outcome, and that is also fine: the ‘Value Betting’ strategy is based on this in particular. Anyhow, deciding whether you should or should not bet on one match or another is advised to look at from these very perspectives, not on a principle like ‘this game is interesting to watch; therefore, it needs to be bet on (to make it even more interesting)’.

To be continued in Part 2.

In order to achieve this he has to artificially lower the coefficient for the favourite. The bookmaker does not know in advance how the bets will be spread, but the thing he knows for sure is that the players will put the ‘load’ on the favourite; therefore, he exaggerates the favourite’s chance to win to stay on the safe side. Here two kinds of options are possible: either raise the win probability, so that it would turn out to be a greater percentage than that of the bets on the favourite, or make the win probability smaller on the contrary. Let us assume that the bookmaker has decided to place the following coefficients:

Then, having the same distribution of bet amounts we get:

As we can see, here the bookmaker is left with a profit irrespective of the outcome of the match! In case the favourite’s wins and losses are distributed ‘as planned’, it will constitute $138 225, in case of the worst scenario (100 wins by the favourite out of 100) – $115 000, whilst the best outcome (100 losses out of 100) will result in $170 000 out of every million the players bet!

Hedging the Outcomes

Now let us examine what happens in case the favourite’s win probability percentagewise has still turned out to be smaller than the corresponding bet share. Say, it looks like this:

What profit distribution of the bookmaker do we face in such a case keeping bet proportions the same?

As we can infer from the table, an outcome with the bookmaker’s loss has emerged. That is exactly why bookmakers ALWAYS prefer overvaluing the favourite over undervaluing, not even based on his real chances, but based on the coefficient distribution that the players set by their bets, who always bet more on the favourite than they really should judging by the realistic probability of his win. Coefficients and probabilities corresponding to the bet proportions used in our example, adding the profit margin, should have looked like this:

It does not matter how the teams’ chances are really spread, the bookmaker still gets a profit of 6.25% of all the money the players have bet. So, at the end of the day the most important thing to know is how the players are going to distribute their bets!

In reality, neither realistic chances, nor player means’ distribution can be calculated exactly, there will always be an error factor. Therefore, as it has been said already, bookmakers try to lower the coefficients on the favourite initially, in order to guarantee profit for themselves, i.e. determine the teams’ chances and add to the calculated favourite’s win probability an extra 15-20%. Then, when the bets start piling up, they play with coefficients judging by their current real distribution in order to maximize profit.

Bookmakers operate with a sole purpose – to generate revenue. Actually, in spite of the common opinion, a bookmaker’s gain does not depend on the number of lost bets, but on how well the coefficients are chosen. What is meant by “well”? It means that every, even the most unexpected outcome of an event has to leave the bookmaker better off.

Forming the Coefficients

Let us have a look at how coefficients are formed. Firstly, analysts determine the teams’ chances. This is accomplished in various ways that can be divided in two groups: analytical and heuristic. Analytical consist mostly of statistics and mathematics (probability theory), heuristic represent experts’ opinions. By combining the results in one way or another event outcome probabilities are calculated. Let us assume that as a result of analysts’ work the following probabilities have been derived:

Even though probability in mathematics is normally indicated by a number between 0 and 1, we will use percent for a ‘smoother’ look. Turning probabilities into coefficients we get:

These are ‘fair odds’, but such coefficients will never show up in the line, otherwise the bookmaker would never get his profit. When inserted into the actual line these coefficients will probably look more like this:

Turning that into probabilities we get:

The sum of probabilities does not equal 100%, but 115% where 15% is the bookmaker’s profit margin that he puts into coefficients.
When starting to accept bets for this line, the bookmaker sees that the bet amounts are spread among these three outcomes in the following proportions:

This means that from every thousand dollars all the players bet in total $75 000 has been bet on 1 winning, $15 000 on the draw and $10 000 on 2 winning. The majority of players bets on favourites most of the time building up the most part of accumulators. Let us think about what the bookmaker’s gain would be from every hundred thousand dollars invested by the players in case of different outcomes:

As a result we can see that in case of the favourite win, which according to logic occurs the most often, the bookmaker will suffer financial losses. If we assume that the teams’ chances had been evaluated correctly, then the favourite wins 55 out of 100 matches and the bookmaker loses $130 625, 25 result in a draw and the bookmaker gains $141 250 and 20 result in the favourite losing and the bookmaker’s gain of $100 000. Hence, after a hundred matches the bookmaker would get a profit of $241 250 risking $130 625 at the same time (for every million bet by players). However, favourites’ losses and draws, which in case of such an outcome bring the bookmakers their profit, are obviously not distributed evenly, i.e. there can easily occur a situation when out of 100 matches a certain favourite comes out ahead in all 100 (even if it means that he loses 90 out of the next 100, which gives the overall statistics the same probability distribution 55% – 25% – 20%), and the bookmaker’s losses would constitute $237 500 for every million the players bet (even though his profit would be $482 500 for the next 100 matches)! This is completely unacceptable for the business and the bookmaker must eliminate even a theoretical possibility of such a situation.

To be continued in Part 2.

When you are winning, do not imagine yourself as being unbreakable and raise your bets dramatically. Continue betting as much as before and remember that even though winning appears to be easy for you for the time being, losing everything you won is a lot easier. If you are on your game, it is reasonable to utilize that; however, do not forget that your chance to win remains only a chance, even if the course of action is thoroughly thought through, and that it is easy to lose control of the situation. When you lose, try not to make hasty decisions and act carelessly (raise your bets significantly, fully change your strategy, bet on a greater number of events, etc.). If your strategy has worked before, it will work again, if only you stay calm and be patient. When you go through a streak of bad luck and feel like your chance to win is low, it is essential to preserve self-control. You can even take a break and refrain from betting for a few weeks, in order to gather your thoughts and return fresh and ready for action.

…Your Urge to Bet

Do you have time to gather information on match participants or do you bet just so that it is more exciting to watch? Evaluate how much time you can sacrifice to your hobby and decide. Are you genuinely interested in sports or do you bet just for the sake of financial gain? If your interest in sports is genuine, it is easier for you to follow the latest sports trends and other news, which itself gives you a certain advantage over the bookmakers resulting in a greater chance to win. If, however, you start to think of it as a dull and uninteresting activity, it means that time has come for you to stop. Do not bet for the sake of betting. When the motivation is lost, it is most likely to end with loss of temper, interest and finally all the money.

Make it clear for yourself – why you are playing. Many people place bets just so that a football match or any other sports event would become more interesting to watch on TV, and that is alright. They do not care much about winning or losing. It is just a way of spending time and having fun, therefore, such people do not bet on sports on a regular basis. On the other side of the scales are professional gamblers who bet with a purpose, a goal to bet and win and win big. But what happens when a person playing just for fun starts to win? Of course, he starts increasing his bet amounts, since he starts thinking that he is lucky or smart, he begins playing for greater sums of money than before, until he runs out of it. This is typical for human nature. It seems that we always want to lose all the money we just won due to unknown reasons. When we bet and win, we do not stop and say “Enough”. No, we increase the stakes and then suddenly start losing. Soon, when we step out of initial borders, we do not notice that, since we are busy trying to return what is lost. And then it all shatters and starts falling.

Set Your Monetary Goal

If you bet 100 and win 500, it is a good gain. But instead of taking it home you become excited and suddenly there you are with 300. You still have your gain of 400% from the initial bank, but feel that a remainder of 300 after a loss is not the same as a gain of 300 after a win, and you continue playing, instead of taking your 200 in profit. You most likely lose that too before you can understand what happened. This looks by all means disastrous to you; nevertheless it can be avoided, you can really bet and win and actually see it, if you possess at least a minimum amount of self-organization. Set a goal for yourself and each time you reach it, put aside the profit and continue playing with the amount you had initially.

Separate Bank From Winnings

For example, starting with 500, set a goal to increase this amount to 1000. Having reached that, take your 500 and continue playing with your starting 500. This way you will be able to see your actions’ results in cash, not in your account’s virtual money or credits on the bookmaker’s website. Even if you are sure about your game’s profitability and wish to increase the size of your bank, do not invest the whole winnings amount, save at least a part of it. If you feel like you are good to go – Bet and win NOW!

In sports gambling, as in life itself, it is very important to set a goal for yourself. If you have no goal in your gambling against bookmakers, it can end tragically for you. You can start betting every day, you can begin betting large amounts of money to cover previous losses, you can start betting thoughtlessly and all of that can lead to very unpleasant consequences. Hence, you have to think some things through first.
Think about how you want to gamble. Identify your inclination to risk, i.e. your ability to bet on large coefficients (single bets or accumulators) as opposed to increasing your capital gradually utilizing small ones. Are you ready for a long-term gamble which involves betting on events that will not result in winnings on every occasion, but when they will the prize will cover all the previous sports gambling losses on these bets (e.g. catch-ups of playing against leaders)? The question is – will yoube patient enough to wait for that moment or will you give up and change your strategy? Players who fail to keep playing for the long-term results usually prefer less risky bets on favored outcomes and win often but little, so any loss can cancel all previous success and you can result in a negative balance, also taking into account that bookmakers lower coefficients for those in favour to win, since, among other things, there are always more bets on the latter.

Having gone trough the first stage and played it enough, you can try going to a new, more serious level. Evaluate your financial, intellectual and psychological capabilities, choose your financial and game strategy, select the right sports and events and go play!
But remember that if you play not only for fun, but with an intention to gain some income, the criteria for your achievements has to be not the number of bets you won as opposed to the ones you lost, but your bank account balance, i.e. your income (winnings) exceeding your expenses (betting amounts). This seems so obvious, but still many people do not take that into account. You can win a great percentage of your bets, but your bank can decrease at the same time. On the other hand, you can increase your capital winning only 20% of your bets. It all depends on the strategy you have chosen and an incorrectly chosen short-term game can lead to more losses than a less successful long-term one.

Keep Track of Your Spending

You should by all means keep track of your bets. It is enough to note down the date, bet and prize amount and balance the accounts once a month or once a couple of weeks. We always lose more than we can count, since wins are remembered for a long time, whereas losses, especially of smaller amounts (which by the way very often constitute the largest volume of our bets) are taken as a tiny misconception, „bad luck”, and we often forget about many of them. Then suddenly we are left wondering why our bank was emptied so quickly. It gets even worse, if you do not apportion this bank but use any „spare funds” from your budget – you might spend a couple of days skint waiting for the next paycheck. That is why keeping your accounts in order is necessary. Moreover, if you use several strategies at the same time, each of them should be monitored separately.

If you already know all that, then just HOP IN right now!