Absolute Return Trading Systems, Inc.

ARTS Team — Mon, 02 May 2011 13:36:06 +0000

The S&P 500 gained 1.9% as most companies continue to top earnings forcasts and first quarter GDP grew at a slightly faster pace than was expected. As stocks gained, the dollar fell, gold hit a new record high and oil prices rose to a new multiyear high.

12 Month Stock Market Performance

Commodity prices rallied, with silver spiking 3.8%, crude advancing 1.2% and gold gaining 3.7% while the dollar index fell 1.2%. Gold is up 10% on the year, oil is up 24% and silver has increased in value by 55%. Meanwhile, the US greenback has fallen 7.7%.

The week was extremely earnings heavy, with nearly 150 S&P 500 companies releasing their quarterly results.

Research In Motion
(RIMM) took a pounding as the maker of BlackBerry devices lowered its profit forecast.

3M
(MMM) hit an all-time high following its upside report and forecast.

Amazon.com
(AMZN) rallied to a new record following its earnings beat.

Exxon Mobil
(XOM) garnered attention after posting a $11 bln quarterly profit, which was slightly ahead of estimates.

About 300 S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter earnings with 74% posting an upside surprise. Earnings are now expected to grow 16% this quarter, an increase from the 11.5% estimate at the beginning of the quarter.

The FOMC left the benchmark unchanged at between 0.00% and 0.25%, as expected. The Federal Reserve trimmed its 2011 growth forecast range by about 40 basis points. On a positive note, the Fed also decreased its unemployment expectations, now forecasting a range of between 8.4% and 8.7%.

In economic news, first quarter GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8%, slightly ahead of the Briefing.com consensus of 1.7%. An increase in imports, a slowdown in personal spending growth and a decrease in federal government spending resulted in the deceleration of GDP growth relative to prior quarters.

Market Update

ARTS Team — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 01:45:24 +0000

The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, in relatively quiet trading week. The modest decline follows a positive 4.2% gain in the previous two weeks.

Seven of the ten sectors dropped, with industrials shedding 1.4%. Consumer staples posted the largest gain, up 1.1%.

12 Month Stock market Performance

Commodity prices rallied, with silver peaking at 8.5%, crude advanced 4.8% and gold increasing 3.3%. The dollar index fell 1.3%, while hitting a fresh 52-week low against the euro.

NSM spiked 68% and was the top performer for the week. Retailers also were among the week’s best performing stocks on upside reports.

In corporate news, Texas Instruments (TXN) is going to buy National Semiconductor (NSM) for $6.5 bln, an 80% premium.

On the negative, oil sensitive stocks took a hit, such as Southwest Airlines(LUV), whose value decreased 7.8%.

In overseas news, the ECB raised its benchmark lending rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, as expected. Portugal requested aid from EU officials.

Back in the U.S., the looming threat of a government shutdown had a limited impact on stock trading.

The coming week marks the unofficial start to first quarter earnings season with Alcoa (AA) reporting on Monday after the close.

Market Update

ARTS Team — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 23:57:47 +0000

The S&P 500 ended the week lower as declines in heavyweight energy and tech stocks dragged. Stocks pared some of the week’s losses Friday even as overseas markets declined after Japan was hit by the fifth largest earthquake on record. Headline risk continues to drive volatility in the markets, especially in the commodity sector.

Tech companies as a whole fell, with notable weakness in semiconductors (-5.5%) and equipment makers (-5.5%). Heavyweights Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) fell 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.

12 Month Stock Market Performance

Company specific news acted as the main drivers of the top performing stocks this week. Starbucks (SBUX 10.4%) surged after the company announced a strategic relationship with Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR 41.0%).

Six of the ten sectors traded lower. Energy (-3.5%), materials and technology posted the biggest declines. Defense sectors outperformed, with telecom boosted by some M&A speculation.

Energy and material stocks dropped as oil and other commodities took a hard hit. Crude oil prices dropped 3.6% and the CRB Index lost 3.1%.

In M&A news, Western Digital (WDC 14.6%) rallied on news that it will purchase Hitachi’s (HIT -3.5%) storage business. The prospect of less competition also lifted up rival Seagate (STX 8.9%). Sprint Nextel (S 15.2%) spiked on reports that it is in talks regarding a potential merger with T-Mobile USA, which is owned by Deutsche Telecom.

Market Update

ARTS Team — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:50:14 +0000

The S&P 500 ended the week flat after a sharp fall Tuesday was offset by a sharp rise Thursday. Oil prices hit two year highs on the turmoil in Libya and the Middle East that continues to fester, while gold once again hit a record highs.

Health care was the top gainer for the week, up 2.4%, while financials languished with a loss of 1.6%, while most sectors remained relatively unchanged.

12 Month Stock Market Performance

In economic news, the employment situation continues to improve, albeit slowly. Private employers added 222,000 jobs in February, exceeding expectations and offsetting a declining public payroll, with overall payrolls increasing 190,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly moved down to 8.9% from 9.0%.

In other economic news, the ISM Service index rose to 59.7, the highest level since 2005. The ISM manufacturing Index hit a multi-year high of 61.4, exceeding the briefing.com consensus of 60.5.

In corporate news, heavyweight Apple (AAPL) rose 3.0% as the company and CEO, Steve Jobs introduced its new iPad 2.

Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered his semi-annual policy report to lawmakers. He was optimistic about the economic outlook but made no newsworthy revelations.

Meanwhile, continued unrest in the Middle East continues to stir up the commodity market. Oil prices rallied 7.3% hitting a multi-year high of $105.17 per barrel. Gold increased 1.6% to an all-time nominal high of $1441 per ounce.

The Treasury market saw volatility as did the dollar, but ended the week even. The dollar saw some weakening trends after ECB President Trichet said that the ECB may raise interest rates as soon as next month to slow inflation.

Market Briefing

ARTS Team — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 22:00:04 +0000

Momentum indicators continued to deteriorate last week, raising the probability that the markets might be entering a topping process. Although the DJIA advanced to a new high, the Russell 2000 was substantial lower for the week. Strength in the market should be seen as an opportunity to raise some cash.

Market Update From The ARTS Team

ARTS Team — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 21:58:10 +0000

Many of the major indices declined during the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 declined 0.8% as earnings came in with mixed results as concerns increased that China will raise interest rates.

Materials (-3.2%) led to the downside. The sector’s decline began after China reported robust GDP growth. That increased fears that China will need to raise interest rates again to prevent its economy from overheating, forcing commodity prices down.

YTD Stock Market Performance

The 10 sectors showed mixed results, with three settling lower, four showing modest gains of 0.2% or less, and three showing stronger gains. Utilities led to the upside, rising 1.1%.

The bulk of major financial firms reported fourth quarter earning results this week, disappointing several investors. Bank of America (BAC, ) fell -6.6% after reporting a loss of $0.04 per share, excluding nonrecurring items, falling short of the estimate of $0.06. Citigroup (C, -4.7%) posted a modest profit but missed estimates. Goldman Sachs (GS, -5.0%), Wells Fargo (WFC, -0.7%) and Morgan Stanley (MS, +3.6%) however, all beat analysts expectations.

Outside of financial fields, General Electric (GE, +4.9%) achieved better-than-expected earnings and predicted increasing profits in the coming years. Meanwhile, IBM (IBM, +3.7%) beat expectations as revenue increased 6.6% y/y. Those earnings helped the Dow (+0.7%) outperform this week.

Electronics industry leader, Apple (AAPL, -6.2%) reported another strong quarter as revenue spiked 70.5% y/y, easily surpassing estimates, despite the recent announcement of CEO Steve Jobs indefinite, medical leave of absence

2010 Performance Update

ARTS Team — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 19:15:00 +0000

2010 has been a very successful year for ARTS. For a complete summary of our impressive results, visit our detailed performance data page or TimerTrac.com!

Performance results and charts presented herein are provided by TimerTrac, the industry leading market timing verification service.

2010 Performance Results – (Nasdaq 100)

Performance Results Since Registration with TimerTrac – (Nasdaq 100)

A Look At The Week Ahead

ARTS Team — Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:44:05 +0000

MONDAY: Blackberry suspension goes into effect in UAE; Microsoft Windows phone launch; Nobel prize in economics; NY Fed Pres Dudley Speaks

TUESDAY: NFIB small biz index; employment trends index; employment optimism index; Kansas City Fed Pres Hoenig speaks; CFTC hearing on high frequency trading and flash crash; 3-year note auction; FOMC meeting minutes; P&G shareholder meeting; Earnings from Intel and CSX

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; import & export prices; 10-year note auction; Richmond Fed Pres Lacker speaks; Earnings from JPMorgan

THURSDAY: International trade; PPI; weekly jobless claims; oil inventories; 30-year bond auction; Minnesota Fed Pres Kocherlakota speaks; OPEC meeting; Earnings from Google and AMD

FRIDAY: Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart speaks; Bernanke speaks; CPI; retail sales; Empire State mfg survey; consumer sentiment; credit card default rates reported; Earnings from GE and Mattel

Market Musings From The ARTS Team

ARTS Team — Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:41:46 +0000

U.S. stocks surged last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 11,000 for the first time in five months.

The Dow finished the trading session at 57.90 points or up 0.5 percent on expectations the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to spur the economy after a weak jobs report.

YTD Stock Market Performance

This last time the Dow was over 11,000 was May 3^rd, 2010. The benchmark index reached its highest point of the year on April 26 when it hit 11,205. The first time the Dow touched 11,000 was May 1999.

The S&P closed 1.7 percent higher for the week closing at 1,165.15. The S&P is also at its highest level since May.

The Nasdaq rose 0.8 percent on Friday to 2,401.91. The Nasdaq was up 1.3 percent for the week.

The US dollar fell against the euro and the yen while gold prices continued to rise ending the Friday session at $1,345 an ounce.

The US benchmark 10-year bond was unchanged rising slightly to yield 2.39 percent.

Advantages Of Stock Trading Programs

ARTS Team — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 14:29:52 +0000

If you’ve been thinking about using one of today’s high-tech stock trading programs, you should definitely go for it. These programs are based on the latest innovations in technology and the oldest mathematical wisdom out there. While not all these programs are created equal, some of them can give you some huge advantages for your stock trading.

The number one advantage of stock trading programs is that they give you a disciplined way to make decisions about your stock investments. There really are not many people in this world who can get by in the stock market by simply going with their gut feelings. Those who do are simply lucky. If you want more than luck in your stock trading, you need a system. A trading program offers you a system by which you can make all your choices, taking much of the worry out of trading in the stock market.

Another major advantage is that you can look back on the history of different trading systems to see how well they’ve performed. Just like choosing a high-performing mutual fund, you want to choose a program that has performed above the average for its users. Although the program won’t be making your investing decisions for you, it will be giving you suggestions on where to place your money. You only want to use a system whose suggestions work most of the time.

Finally, this type of system allows you to worry less about researching the stock market. Real investors who also have real lives and real jobs can be hard pressed to process all the information they need to make good choices. Stock trading programs can do the information processing for you so that you just need to use the signals they send to invest at certain times.