AbsolutePigskin Times

Tony Dungy to South Florida?

Tom Loker — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 06:16:00 GMT

Unnamed sources have cited former Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy as a possible candidate to replace now fired ex University of South Florida Head Man Jim Leavitt. AbsolutePigskin.com has learned that Dungy met with South Florida athletic director Greg Woolard Monday...

AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 Computer Rankings 12/6/09

Tom Loker — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 17:39:00 GMT

Well after a weekend of excellent college football action full of great conference championship games (Big Ten powers that be are you listening here, do you not see the benefits?) In any case we have our final AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 computer rankings. If the AbsolutePigskin.com statistical analysis had anything to do with it, it would be TCU facing Alabama in the BCS national championship game. Of course the BCS is a sham and whereas they always refer to the "BCS Computers" most of the BCS rankings is comprised of a human element so the "BCS Computers" are a farce. Without further ado and without further griping about the human voting system being biased and basically a sham here is the final AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 before the start of the bowl season.

AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 (11/29/09)

Tom Loker — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 19:53:00 GMT

A loss from Pitt, loss by Oklahoma State, and a less than stellar performance from Texas coupled with another dominant win from TCU vaults the Texas Christian Horned frogs into the top 3 of the AbsolutePigskin.com Computer Top 25. For those of you new to the AbsolutePigskin.com top 25 this is a statistical analysis I have prepared for every team, division 1A, 1AA, and II in college football right now. It uses every statistic tracked by the NCAA in order to formulate a rank for teams. This rank is then adjusted based on the # of losses and the strength of each teams schedule... the strength of schedule also calculated by the spreadsheet based on how each teams opponent ranks in the computer. So without further ado here is the latest AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 Computer Rankings.

Click on image to view it in full size

AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 (11/22/09)

Tom Loker — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:36:00 GMT

Here is the latest top 25 computer rankings from the AbsolutePigskin.com statistical analysis.

Full Rankings Of All FBS and FCS Teams

Tom Loker — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:33:00 GMT

Just for some added info here is how the AbsolutePigskin computers rank ALL TEAMS in Division 1A (FBS) and Division 1AA (FCS)

Rank	Name	Adjusted Score	Score	Games	Wins	Losses
1	Alabama	23.63586957	23.63587	10	10	0
2	Florida	27.72228261	19.80163	10	10	0
3	Texas	29.665625	26.96875	10	10	0
4	TCU	43.35529891	28.90353	10	10	0
5	Cincinnati	60.27690217	46.36685	10	10	0
6	Boise St.	64.00108696	33.68478	10	10	0
7	Pittsburgh	72.87771739	41.6481	10	9	1
8	Ohio St.	79.19505929	28.8913	11	9	2
9	Iowa	81.07644516	35.85462	11	9	2
10	LSU	88.8923913	35.91033	10	8	2
11	Georgia Tech	90.05541008	62.94293	11	10	1
12	Penn St.	90.30728755	34.76495	11	9	2
13	Oregon	93.16576087	43.05978	10	8	2
14	Rutgers	95.49323671	27.87772	9	7	2
15	Nebraska	99.0486413	27.58967	10	7	3
16	Utah	103.998913	41.57065	10	8	2
17	Virginia Tech	106.494837	37.79484	10	7	3
18	Wisconsin	116.6918478	41.70109	10	8	2
19	Oklahoma St.	117.0980978	39.61005	10	8	2
20	North Carolina	119.540625	29.90625	10	7	3
21	West Virginia	120.0277174	42.7731	10	7	3
22	Temple	121.4615489	44.50679	10	8	2
23	BYU	124.0717391	48.91984	10	8	2
24	Oklahoma	125.0908967	25.76223	10	6	4
25	Miami (FL)	126.9133152	52.9212	10	7	3
26	Clemson	128.1252717	39.61685	10	7	3
27	Boston College	130.2326087	41.02174	10	7	3
28	Arizona	130.7185236	36.25679	9	6	3
29	Central Mich.	133.8214674	48.90082	10	8	2
30	Southern California	134.0820652	54.48505	10	7	3
31	California	140.6380435	55.33696	10	7	3
32	Mississippi	142.9884511	39.09918	10	7	3
33	Georgia	144.1122283	52.51223	10	6	4
34	Stanford	146.3820652	64.73505	10	7	3
35	South Fla.	146.6823822	37.02582	9	6	3
36	Oregon St.	146.8279891	55.80571	10	7	3
37	Air Force	150.5624012	37.38315	11	7	4
38	Navy	150.6468009	58.79484	11	8	3
39	Ohio	152.2826087	46.43478	10	7	3
40	Northern Ill.	155.9336957	43.61685	10	7	3
41	Kentucky	157.0221467	50.32473	10	6	4
42	South Carolina	158.5909091	54.5	11	6	5
43	East Carolina	161.0362017	42.32745	9	5	4
44	Tennessee	164.4116848	49.91168	10	5	5
45	UCF	165.3690217	49.17935	10	6	4
46	UCLA	166.5728261	43.39402	10	5	5
47	Missouri	167.4111413	54.15082	10	6	4
48	Auburn	172.9144392	68.95516	11	7	4
49	Minnesota	173.5012352	69.41033	11	6	5
50	Connecticut	180.4989885	48.43342	9	4	5
51	Notre Dame	182.5334239	64.95245	10	6	4
52	Troy	182.6217391	71.20109	10	7	3
53	Middle Tenn.	183.3686141	60.3519	10	7	3
54	La.-Monroe	183.3891304	57.36821	10	6	4
55	Arkansas	184.4622283	66.33016	10	6	4
56	Florida St.	188.4850543	73.98505	10	5	5
57	Iowa St.	188.6085721	65.01359	11	6	5
58	Bowling Green	189.495788	68.17799	10	5	5
59	Nevada	189.5642663	63.61277	10	7	3
60	Duke	190.4505435	63.29212	10	5	5
61	Northwestern	190.5096838	59.57609	11	7	4
62	Southern Miss.	192.9970109	53.36685	10	6	4
63	Arizona St.	193.7887228	33.16984	10	4	6
64	Houston	195.0027174	87.7663	10	8	2
65	Kansas St.	195.4543602	53.74321	11	6	5
66	Louisville	196.4217391	59.02174	10	4	6
67	Michigan St.	198.993083	59.31386	11	6	5
68	Kent St.	199.7725543	47.37364	10	5	5
69	Marshall	200.8891304	61.70652	10	5	5
70	Texas Tech	203.4543478	62.1413	10	6	4
71	Kansas	203.5013587	59.33424	10	5	5
72	Baylor	206.5059783	69.10598	10	4	6
73	Fresno St.	207.7404891	68.31793	10	6	4
74	SMU	215.8366848	69.02038	10	6	4
75	Wyoming	215.8543478	63.34647	10	5	5
76	Idaho	217.2455534	89.31522	11	7	4
77	Virginia	217.4372283	51.94293	10	3	7
78	Tulsa	218.3860809	47.98098	9	4	5
79	Army	221.126087	52.3288	10	4	6
80	Syracuse	223.2974185	57.27038	10	3	7
81	Texas A&M	224.0532609	84.27174	10	5	5
82	La.-Lafayette	226.573913	70.0462	10	5	5
83	Purdue	235.0490119	74.43478	11	4	7
84	Indiana	237.6593379	76.61005	11	4	7
85	Washington	240.0119565	79.71196	10	3	7
86	Toledo	245.0315217	82.79348	10	4	6
87	Wake Forest	246.5900445	72.04484	11	4	7
88	Colorado	246.8418478	66.57065	10	3	7
89	Michigan	248.1786561	77.04348	11	5	6
90	Mississippi St.	251.3432065	59.97011	10	4	6
91	Vanderbilt	254.4690711	55.9212	11	2	9
92	San Diego St.	254.5752717	68.92663	10	4	6
93	Akron	254.8494565	65.13587	10	2	8
94	Fla. Atlantic	255.4620471	79.07337	9	3	6
95	Buffalo	257.8387228	65.02582	10	3	7
96	Arkansas St.	260.1661383	48.26766	9	2	7
97	UAB	260.6472826	81.19293	10	5	5
98	North Carolina St.	262.8057065	69.66984	10	4	6
99	Maryland	262.9634511	72.51223	10	2	8
100	Louisiana Tech	269.994837	60.94158	10	3	7
101	Western Mich.	271.5357213	81.45924	11	5	6
102	Colorado St.	271.5608696	74.17391	10	3	7
103	Illinois	271.8326087	69.70788	10	3	7
104	FIU	273.9529891	81.18071	10	3	7
105	UNLV	277.8067564	88.05299	11	4	7
106	Hawaii	282.7190217	76.4837	10	4	6
107	Miami (OH)	289.1451334	80.96332	11	1	10
108	New Mexico St.	292.2441576	69.44429	10	3	7
109	Utah St.	299.1394022	73.07337	10	3	7
110	Washington St.	299.5089674	93.40897	10	1	9
111	Memphis	302.8066576	79.73777	10	2	8
112	UTEP	305.4456522	90.71603	10	3	7
113	Tulane	308.9830163	87.4606	10	3	7
114	Rice	310.4266304	86.93886	10	1	9
115	North Texas	311.6497283	85.63315	10	2	8
116	Ball St.	315.0347826	68.08424	10	1	9
117	Eastern Mich.	321.9869565	77.48913	10	0	10
118	William & Mary	321.9896739	149.5448	10	9	1
119	South Carolina St.	323.6527174	150.3764	10	9	1
120	Montana	325.048913	162.5245	10	10	0
121	Butler	327.8891304	152.4946	10	9	1
122	Villanova	329.5168478	153.3084	10	9	1
123	Prairie View	330.6277174	151.0014	8	7	1
124	Richmond	332.0929348	154.5965	10	9	1
125	Dayton	333.813587	144.0068	10	8	2
126	Southern Ill.	333.9054348	155.5027	10	9	1
127	New Mexico	336.3330163	82.56386	10	0	10
128	San Jose St.	336.9200936	78.44973	9	1	8
129	Elon	339.5826087	146.8913	10	8	2
130	Drake	352.7456522	153.4728	10	8	2
131	Western Ky.	354.7907609	89.85054	10	0	10
132	Eastern Ill.	360.2673913	157.2337	10	8	2
133	Ark.-Pine Bluff	362.388587	152.5693	8	5	2
134	South Dakota St.	362.6728261	146.9864	10	7	3
135	Stephen F. Austin	366.0961957	160.1481	10	8	2
136	New Hampshire	366.4467391	160.3234	10	8	2
137	Holy Cross	370.4923913	173.7962	10	9	1
138	Marist	371.4771739	151.3886	10	7	3
139	UNI	371.9391304	151.6196	10	7	3
140	Liberty	377.7402174	165.9701	10	8	2
141	Old Dominion	386.3570652	170.2785	10	8	2
142	Colgate	388.6608202	173.5122	11	9	2
143	Central Conn. St.	389.4793478	171.8397	10	8	2
144	Montana St.	389.5858696	160.4429	10	7	3
145	Jacksonville St.	390.2054348	160.7527	10	7	3
146	Appalachian St.	392.0146739	173.1073	10	8	2
147	Lafayette	392.2375	173.2188	10	8	2
148	Norfolk St.	397.7005435	153.0503	10	6	4
149	Southern U.	398.4963768	161.0815	9	6	3
150	Alabama A&M	405.301087	156.8505	10	6	4
151	Samford	416.8505435	151.1753	10	5	5
152	Hampton	421.5054348	153.5027	10	5	5
153	Albany (NY)	422.225	165.3125	10	6	4
154	McNeese St.	422.5608696	188.3804	10	8	2
155	Eastern Wash.	423.4038043	177.3519	10	7	3
156	Bethune-Cookman	424.2228261	154.8614	10	5	5
157	Chattanooga	425.9423913	167.1712	10	6	4
158	James Madison	427.5706522	156.5353	10	5	5
159	Florida A&M	430.3086957	180.8043	10	7	3
160	Massachusetts	432.2228261	158.8614	10	5	5
161	Delaware	432.3309783	170.3655	10	6	4
162	N.C. A&T	437.7358092	155.2568	9	4	5
163	Jackson St.	440.620471	143.9769	9	3	6
164	Jacksonville	441.6407609	175.0204	10	6	4
165	UC Davis	445.5673913	176.9837	10	6	4
166	Youngstown St.	446.8396739	166.1698	10	5	5
167	Eastern Ky.	447.6902174	166.5951	10	5	5
168	Weber St.	448.6353261	178.5177	10	6	4
169	Morgan St.	448.7744565	167.1372	10	5	5
170	Robert Morris	452.6391304	157.6196	10	4	6
171	Grambling	453.4777174	180.9389	10	6	4
172	Stony Brook	454.8451087	170.1726	10	5	5
173	Coastal Caro.	463.2744565	174.3872	10	5	5
174	Texas Southern	464.6624396	168.7201	9	4	5
175	Alabama St.	464.6907609	163.6454	10	4	6
176	Southeastern La.	465.5728261	186.9864	10	6	4
177	Maine	465.9836957	175.7418	10	5	5
178	Gardner-Webb	466.2119565	175.856	10	5	5
179	Monmouth	472.1331522	178.8166	10	5	5
180	Missouri St.	472.5093874	184.2092	11	6	5
181	Hofstra	473.7586957	168.1793	10	4	6
182	San Diego	475.1663043	168.8832	10	4	6
183	Northern Ariz.	476.0271739	180.7636	10	5	5
184	Tennessee Tech	478.1440217	181.822	10	5	5
185	Wagner	480.4559783	194.428	10	6	4
186	Tennessee St.	483.3869565	161.5435	10	3	7
187	Illinois St.	484.7907609	185.1454	10	5	5
188	Austin Peay	490.2342391	176.4171	10	4	6
189	Texas St.	490.6842391	199.5421	10	6	4
190	Charleston So.	492.6467391	189.0734	10	5	5
191	Lehigh	498.3788043	169.0394	10	3	7
192	Morehead St.	498.9961957	157.8981	10	2	8
193	Citadel	499.0168478	180.8084	10	4	6
194	Cal Poly	500.2586957	181.4293	10	4	6
195	Tenn.-Martin	502.788587	182.6943	10	4	6
196	Sam Houston St.	503.8777174	194.6889	10	5	5
197	Delaware St.	508.4574275	177.8954	9	3	6
198	Davidson	509.4847826	174.5924	10	3	7
199	Ga. Southern	510.0032609	186.3016	10	4	6
200	Fordham	511.1798913	186.8899	10	4	6
201	Furman	517.1331522	201.3166	10	5	5
202	Bucknell	519.2619565	179.481	10	3	7
203	Sacramento St.	522.7913043	192.6957	10	4	6
204	Mississippi Val.	524.876087	182.288	10	3	7
205	Campbell	526.2347826	182.9674	10	3	7
206	Murray St.	528.6967391	184.1984	10	3	7
207	St. Francis (PA)	528.9744565	172.8872	10	2	8
208	North Dakota St.	534.7347826	187.2174	10	3	7
209	Alcorn St.	534.7853261	181.5177	8	2	6
210	Duquesne	536.8652174	188.2826	10	3	7
211	Howard	540.5016304	178.6508	10	2	8
212	Northern Colo.	541.3389328	187.3967	11	3	8
213	Southern Utah	548.0630435	205.3315	10	4	6
214	Southeast Mo. St.	549.338587	183.0693	10	2	8
215	Savannah St.	549.5404589	185.7147	9	2	7
216	Wofford	550.5744565	195.1372	10	3	7
217	Western Caro.	561.6782609	189.2391	10	2	8
218	Northeastern	562.4717391	189.6359	10	2	8
219	Sacred Heart	563.7679348	190.284	10	2	8
220	VMI	565.811413	191.3057	10	2	8
221	Western Ill.	573.5048913	183.7024	10	1	9
222	Towson	577.4065217	197.1033	10	2	8
223	Georgetown	579.4831522	186.6916	10	0	9
224	Portland St.	579.5538538	196.0951	11	2	9
225	Valparaiso	587.9423913	190.9212	10	1	9
226	Nicholls St.	593.9228261	205.3614	10	2	8
227	Indiana St.	595.4318182	193.625	11	1	10
228	Rhode Island	596.488587	195.1943	10	1	9
229	Idaho St.	599.6709486	195.7446	11	1	10
230	Northwestern St.	629.1195652	200.0598	10	0	10

AbsolutePigskin.com Top 25 11/15/09

Tom Loker — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:16:00 GMT

For those that don't know this is a statistical analysis of all Div. 1A, IAA, and II teams that when compiled provide a top 25 based purely on what the numbers are. The computer does all the statistical work to provide an unbiased look at the top teams in the country.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO VIEW IT IN FULL SIZE

To view the complete AbsolutePigskin.com computer rankings of all Division 1A and 1AA teams click here.

Free Picks 11/14

Tom Loker — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:32:00 GMT

Saturday, November 14

Game	Score	Status	Pick
Syracuse	-	12:00 PM ET	Louisville -7.5	10 dimes
Louisville	-
Georgia Tech	-	12:00 PM ET	Georgia Tech -13.5	200 dimes
Duke	-
Clemson	-	12:00 PM ET	Clemson -7.5	25 dimes
North Carolina State	-
Florida State	-	12:00 PM ET	Wake Forest -5	5 dimes
Wake Forest	-
Indiana	-	12:00 PM ET	Indiana +24.5	10 dimes
Penn State	-
Texas	-	12:00 PM ET	Texas -23.5	500 dimes
Baylor	-
Michigan	-	12:00 PM ET	Wisconsin -8.5	5 dimes
Wisconsin	-
Northwestern	-	12:00 PM ET	Northwestern +5	5 dimes
Illinois	-
Virginia Tech	-	1:00 PM ET	Virginia Tech -18.5	100 dimes
Maryland	-
Brigham Young	-	2:00 PM ET	Brigham Young -27.5	500 dimes
New Mexico	-
Western Kentucky	-	4:00 PM ET	Western Kentucky +21.5	100 dimes
UL Monroe	-
Alabama	-	7:00 PM ET	Alabama -11.5	500 dimes
Mississippi State	-
Louisiana Tech	-	7:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech +22.5	200 dimes
Louisiana State	-
Arizona State	-	10:20 PM ET	Oregon -19	300 dimes

AbsolutePigskin.com Computer Top 25 11/8/09

Tom Loker — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 19:26:00 GMT

CLICK ON IMAGE TO VIEW IT IN FULL SIZE

AbsolutePigskin.com Computer Top 25 (11/1)

Tom Loker — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:37:00 GMT

For those that do not know already this is a statistical analysis of all Division 1A, 1AA, and Division II football teams in the nation using all the statistics the NCAA currently tracks. It automatically generates a strength of schedule for each team and it appropriately takes into account wins and losses of each team to produce a ranking for each team. Without further ado here is the latest top 25 from the AbsolutePigskin.com computers.

Click on the image to view it in full size...

Weekend Free Picks

Tom Loker — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 03:32:00 GMT

Sure I like college football like the next guy but you know what I like more than college football? BETTING on college football. Here are some free picks courtesy of the AbsolutePigskin.com computers. Note: These picks are for fun only and are not meant to encourage you to gamble. Gambling is bad people... Some rather large lines this weekend for these games which scares me but here is what the computers are predicting. Picks in bold. Note: Prediction is a guess based on the data the computer is spitting out. This is only a reasonable estimate I make on each game based on the ratings and statistics the computer analysis spits out. The computer does not yet predict an actual score as I am currently building this feature.

Favorite	Underdog	Line	Prediction
Ohio State	New Mexico	+44	Ohio State win by 43
North Texas	Western Ky.	-13.5	North Texas win by 17
Kentucky	Miss. St.	-4	Kentucky win by 15
Nevada	Hawaii	-29	Nevada win by 40
LSU	Tulane	-36	LSU win by 47
Cinncinatti	Syracuse	-16	Cinncinatti win by 19
Idaho	La. Tech	-3	Idaho win by 10

AbsolutePigskin Computer Top 25 - 3rd Edition

Tom Loker — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 17:06:00 GMT

Another week of college football and the national picture became a bit more clear but I must address something I heard in the USC vs. Oregon State game from the announcers. I believe their comment was "the computers don't take into account how big USC's wins were at Ohio State and at Notre Dame early in the season". This my friends is EXACTLY why we need computer rankings and not human opinion polls to objectively decide on the best teams in the nation. The main problem with human voters is they take into account human pre-season and early season polls which are based largely on speculation and have little to do with reality more often than not. Simply because a team is ranked in the top ten in the preseason means nothing. Time and time again you can point to teams that were ranked in the pre-season top 10 and when they actually play a team with a pulse they lose. More often than not those pollsters already have a theory on the a team and over time despite what happened on the field they gravitate back to that view of the team. As a result they ultimately don't adequately penalize a team when they lose and falsely prop up the team that beats a team they THINK is good. This is what leads to a mess later in the season where voters who don't see all the games base their votes on their opinion... which largely is still swayed by their pre-season and early season thoughts on a team. Voters need to take into account the overall picture of teams and how they eventually end up doing during the season and judge a teams wins and losses by how their opponents eventually end up. I don't care if you beat a team in the top 10 to start the season if the team they beat does not finish in the top 25 at seasons end...

... with that being said here is the UNBIASED statistical analysis of every Division 1A, 1AA, and Div II school to compute the top 25 teams in the land, according to the AbsolutePigskin.com computers. (CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO VIEW IN FULL SIZE)

AbsolutePigskin Computer Top 25 - 2nd Edition

Tom Loker — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 20:42:00 GMT

Here is the 2nd edition of the AbsolutePigskin.com Computer Top 25 rankings. For more explanation about the computer rankings please read the first editions description here.

This week is marked by the loss of Ohio State and subsequently falling from #9 to #19. Also it sees the Texas Longhorns make a move into the top 3.

Click on the image to view it in full size.

AbsolutePigskin Computer Top 25

Tom Loker — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:56:00 GMT

After slacking off for the past week or so from writing anything on the website I figured it is time to get back on the horse and get things moving again. I have been hard at work on a statistical analysis I have put together for all Division 1A, 1AA, and Division II football teams in the country. (Since some 1A teams decided to make my job harder and play a DII school... yeah I'm talking to you Texas Tech, you should be embarrassed.) After some tweaking and fine tuning over the past few weeks the ranking system is complete and as expected after a few trial runs the numbers are jiving with what is happening on the field. I will spare you guys the nitty gritty details of how everything is calculated, it simply is way too involved for me to get in using any sort of simple explanation that won't put you to sleep within about a paragraph. Just take my word for it that it is a lot of math, a lot of visual basic programming, and a lot of formulas. Not only does this statistical analysis rank the teams of the top 25 based on their results and how those results compare with other teams but it also predicts winner for each and every Div. 1A game played each weekend. So far through more functions I have built into the computer rankings the statistical analysis is correctly getting a touch over 70% of winners correct each week. 7 out of 10 is pretty darn good... especially if you are betting on the games. (Not that I would EVER do such a thing.) I have posted some trial runs in the past weeks of some predictions with varying success when the spread on a game is involved but I am slowly but surely building a score prediction function into the process so it predicts both the winner and the final score for each game.

With all that being said, we are now getting to a point in the season where teams have played enough games to give a relatively meaningful sample of data to give an accurate analysis of who the top teams in the country are at this point. For now I am only posting the top 25 but I will be posting rankings for all division 1A teams here soon. There are a few things to know about this top 25 rankings system. It is strictly a computer analysis that factors in the opponents each school has faced, factors in each and every statistic that the NCAA tracks and how those statistics rank against every other Div. 1A team, and it takes into account wins and losses. This is NOT A POWER RANKINGS. I don't need to get emails from people saying team x will be team y and you can't understand why team y is ranked ahead of team x. Power rankings, much like the polls, are a matter of opinion. Just because on paper it looks like team x is more talented than team y doesn't mean team x has lived up to it's potential and taken care of business on the field. This is the beauty of the analysis... no opinion is involved and results are earned on the field. You could be the best team in the history of football but if you play the worst schedule, I'm sorry for your luck! So without further ado here is the first edition of the AbsolutePigskin Top 25. (Click on the image to view it full size.) Lower scores are better.

AbsolutePigskin Picks October 3

Tom Loker — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:33:00 GMT

I apologize for being unable to write much over the recent days and weeks as other things have kept me incredibly busy but that doesn't mean I don't have time to post the AbsolutePigskin.com picks for this saturday's games. I have been hard at work developing a statistical analysis to compare teams to determine a winner. I am also working on putting a system in place to see how the game will do against the spread and the posted total (not for gambling but purely educational purposes, yes that's the ticket.) Without further ado here are the teams the AbsolutePigskin.com computers like in tomorrows games. AbsolutePigskin computer pick in bold.

Against the Spread

Michigan +3.5 at Michigan State
Cincinnati at Miami (OH) +30
Clemson -13 at Maryland
South Florida at Syracuse +7
Wisconsin at Minnesota Under the Posted Total of 53
Toledo -5.5 at Ball St.
Arkansas St. +22 at Iowa
East Carolina at Marshall +2
Virginia Tech -17 at Duke

Note: All games above are schedule to kickoff at 12PM EST. Cincinnati at Miami (OH) is a 1PM kickoff.

Straight Winners (Big Ten Games because I'm Too Lazy To Post All Winners Right Now)

Michigan at Michigan State
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Northwestern at Purdue
Arkansas St. at Iowa
Penn State at Illinois
Ohio State at Indiana

Friday Recap, Saturday Picks

Tom Loker — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 06:16:00 GMT

Well the good and the bad... only one game on Friday night we had to pick and it seemed as if our calculations were going to prove to be correct. Then suddenly a fumble right before Nevada scores a go ahead touchdown and Missouri's Blake Gabbert inexplicably manages to convert on some key 3rd downs with unreal plays and that is all she wrote. I guess that is why they call it gambling folks...

What did we learn however from the game. The statistical analysis of the teams is working and after a bit of fine tuning will get even more accurate. The nature of how the system is set up will become more accurate with each week so even though the prediction tonight proved to be wrong we were not very far off in terms of what happened in the game vs. what the statistical analysis told us. (Trust me on this but I'm simply too tired to post the full overview of it right now.)

As a result of some of the promise the statistical analysis tool I have designed is showing we are going to go all out tomorrow and try to provide a ton of picks based solely on unbiased statistics... no personal bias... no I think or I hope... just simple plain untainted math to point us in the right direction. I will try and provide more picks tomorrow but for now let's throw out some of the highest rated games, statistically speaking.

Date	Time	Favorite	Underdog	Spread (PTS)	Over/Under	Bet	Result
Sept 26	12 PM	Temple	Buffalo	3.5	45.5	Buffalo	Loss
Sept 26	12 PM	Cinn.	Fresno State	17	63.5	Fresno State	Win
Sept 26	12:20 PM	LSU	Miss. St.	12	44	LSU	Win
Sept 26	2 PM	Boston College	Wake Forest	1.5	41.5	Wake Forest	Loss
Sept 26	2:10 PM	Kansas St.	Tenn. Tech	32	n/a	Kansas St.	Win
Sept 26	7 PM	Oregon St	Arizona	3	44.5	Arizona	Win
Sept 26	7 PM	Kent St.	Miami OH	7	48	Miami OH	Loss
Sept 26	8 PM	Penn State	Iowa	9.5	40.5	Penn State	Loss

**Note these predictions are based statistical information compiled by AbsolutePigskin.com. This statistical analysis gets more accurate as the season goes on and but I have not yet implemented the system to predict the final score of both teams. This is simply a comparison of two teams and these predicted bets against the spread are a reasonable judgment by me based on the statistical edge one team has over another in the analysis.**

Below are straight winners of games of note, without reference to the spread. You can place a straight money line bet on these games but I'm too tired to look up the current money lines for these games. The statistical analysis put together by AbsolutePigskin.com DOES predict winners. Home team is bold. I will list the Big Ten contests with hopes of posting more straight winners tomorrow before noon.

Minnesota beats Northwestern - CORRECT
#23 Michigan beats Indiana - CORRECT
Wisconsin beats Michigan State - CORRECT
#13 Ohio State beats Illinois - CORRECT
Penn State beats Iowa - INCORRECT
Notre Dame beats Purdue - CORRECT

A MISTAKE IN THE FORMULAS FOR THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WAS FOUND AND HAS BEEN CORRECTED. EXPECT EVEN BETTER RESULTS NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT!!!!