AbsolutePigskin Times

Computer Picks All Remaining Bowl Games (1/3 to 1/9)

Tom Loker — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 04:05:00 GMT

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl) Tuesday, January 3, 2011

The AbsolutePigskin Computer views Michigan as 4 points better than Virginia Tech - PICK MICHIGAN -2.5

Clemson vs. West Virginia (Orange Bowl) Wednesday, January 4, 2011

The AbsolutePigskin computer views West Virginia as a 1 point favorite over Clemson - PICK WEST VIRGINIA +1

Arkansas vs. Kansas St. (Cotton Bowl) Friday, January 6, 2011

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Arkansas as a 10 point favorite over Kansas St. - PICK ARKANSAS -7.5

SMU vs. Pittsburgh (Compass Bowl) Saturday, January 7, 2011

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Pitt as being 9 points better than SMU - PICK PITTSBURGH -3.5

Arkansas St. vs. Northern Illinois

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Northern Illinois as being 3 points better than Arkansas St. - PICK N. ILLINOIS +1.5

LSU vs. Alabama

The AbsolutePigskin computer views LSU as a 6 point favorite over Alabama - PICK LSU +1

Computer Picks (1/2) All Daily Bowls

Tom Loker — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 02:32:00 GMT

Florida vs Ohio State (Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Florida as a 3 point favorite over Ohio State. PICK Florida -2

Georgia vs. Michigan State (Outback Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Georgia as a 4 point favorite over Michigan State. PICK Georgia -3

Houston vs. Penn State (Ticket City Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Houston as a 12 point favorite over Penn State PICK Houston -6.5

Nebraska vs. South Carolina (Capital One Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views South Carolina as a 7 point favorite over Nebraska PICK South Carolina -2.5

Oklahoma State vs. Stanford (Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Oklahoma State as an 8 point favorite over Stanford PICK Oklahoma State -4

Oregon vs. Wisconsin (Rose Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Oregon as an 8 point favorite over Wisconsin PICK Oregon -6

Computer Picks (12/31) All Daily Bowls

Tom Loker — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 07:06:00 GMT

Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt (AutoZone Liberty Bowl) WIN

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Cincinnati as a 7 points better than Vanderbilt so take Cincinnati +1.5

Texas A&M vs. Northwestern (Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas) WIN

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Texas A&M as a 19 point favorite over Northwestern so take Texas A&M -10

Auburn vs. Virginia (Chick-Fil-A Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Auburn as a 3 point favorite over Virginia so with the line currently at Auburn -3 it has no play on this game.

Illinois vs. UCLA (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Illinois as a 2 point favorite over UCLA so with the line currently at Illinois -3 it has no play on this game.

Utah vs. Georgia Tech (Hyundai Sun Bowl) WIN

The AbsolutePigskin computer views this game as a pick 'em so take Utah +2.5.

Computer Picks (12/30) All Daily Bowls

Tom Loker — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 05:07:00 GMT

Lets just get right to the computer analysis...

BYU vs. Tulsa (Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl) - (LOSS)

AbsolutePigskin.com computer says: Tulsa 7 points better than BYU so pick Tulsa -1

Miss. St. vs. Wake Forest (Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl) - (LOSS)

AbsolutePigskin.com computer says: Miss. St. is 7 points better than Wake Forest so pick Miss. St. -6.5

Rutgers vs. Iowa St. (New Era Pinstripe Bowl) - (WIN)

AbsolutePigskin.com computer says: Rutgers is 7 points better than Iowa St. so pick Rutgers -1

Oklahoma vs. Iowa (Insight Bowl) - (WIN)

AbsolutePigskin.com computer says: Oklahoma is 15 points better than Iowa so pick Oklahoma -13.5

Computer Picks (12/29) Both Bowl Games

Tom Loker — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 05:11:00 GMT

In both of Friday's match ups the AbsolutePigskin computer views the teams as pretty evenly matched...

For Notre Dame vs. Florida State the computer views Florida State as between a 3.5 point favorite. As a result we have NO PLAY on this game with the line at 3.5

For Baylor vs. Washington, the computer views Baylor as a 3 point favorite over Washington... pick is Washington +8.5 (LOSS)

Computer Picks (12/28) Holiday Bowl

Tom Loker — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 03:57:00 GMT

We cut right to the chase here... as with all these computer picks all the proper statistical analysis has been done I just don't have time these days to write it all out.

The AbsolutePigskin.com computer views Texas as only a 0.5 point favorite over Cal... in real world terms after examining similar games where Texas/Cal were similar favorite/underdog's Texas is a 1 point favorite over Cal.

PICK: CAL +4

RESULT: Loss

FINAL: Texas 21. Cal 10

Computer Picks (12/28) Military Bowl

Tom Loker — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 03:51:00 GMT

After a bit of a rough patch for the computer we get back at it and get back on the winning side of things... Toldeo vs. Air Force. (again shortened for time constraints)

Toledo is viewed by the AbsolutePigskin computer as a 21 point favorite over Air Force. In "real world" terms after examining similar games where the computer viewed both teams a similar favorite/underdog expect Toledo to be 14 points better than Air Force.

Pick: Toledo -3

RESULT: Loss

FINAL: Toledo 42. Air force 41

Computer Free Pick (12/27) Belk Bowl

Tom Loker — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 22:33:00 GMT

Again due to time constraints I don't have time to do a full write up of my analysis of the computer results but the AbsolutePigskin.com computer views Louisville as a 1.5 point favorite over North Carolina State. When you look at the games between the two teams, in real word numbers, this translates to Louisville being 3 points better than North Carolina State (somewhat of a shock to my I might add.)

PICK: LOUISVILLE +1.5

RESULT: PENDING

SCORE: PENDING

Computer Picks (12/27) Little Caesars Bowl

Tom Loker — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 18:52:00 GMT

Due to time constraints I again can't do a full write up on this game but I've done all the same analysis. We look to get back on the winning track after two losses that taught me never pick teams with lame duck coaches, it just doesn't work in bowl games. Without further ado in a game where literally l dozens of people will fill the stands lets look at this match up between Western Michigan and Purdue.

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Western Michigan as a five point favorite over Purdue. An examination of the numbers and the computer statistics reveals that, in the real world, this translates into Western Michigan being 3 points better than Purdue.

PICK: WESTERN MICHIGAN +1.5

RESULT: looking like a loss

FINAL: a lot to a little

Computer Picks (12/26) AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Tom Loker — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 20:25:00 GMT

With the holidays going on I don't have a lot of time to write a full write up for the game so lets just cut to the chase...

The AbsolutePigskin.com views North Carolina as a 0.6 point favorite over Missouri...

an analysis of the computer (which I'm leaving out for time sake) indicates that North Carolina is 4 points better than Missouri.

PICK: North Carolina +5.5

RESULT: loss

FINAL: a lot to a little. Don't bet teams with coaching problems.

Computer Picks (12/24) MAACO Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Tom Loker — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 04:27:00 GMT

Not really much to say about this match up other than well it's nice weather there in Hawaii I hear... let's get right to the numbers for Nevada vs. Southern Miss.

The AbsolutePigskin.com computer views Southern Miss. as a 5 point favorite over Nevada... in similar games where they were a similar underdog...

Game 10 vs. UCF, the computer views Southern Miss. as a 2.8 point favorite in the game that they won by 1 point. A closer look at the play by play of the game reveals a game where UCF easily could have won the game by a 6 point victory. Southern Miss. out gained UCF by 155 yards and enjoyed a 2 turnover advantage in the game.
Game 9 vs. East Carolina, the computer views Southern Miss. as a 5.8 point favorite in the game that they won by 20 points. A closer look at the game reveals a legitimate 20 point win for Southern Miss. No adjustments needed for turnovers, special teams plays, etc...
Game 7 vs. SMU, the computer views Southern Miss. as a 4.4 point favorite in the game that they won by 24 points. A closer look at the game reveals SMU helped Southern Miss. a good deal in the game and despite the score this was more in line with a 10 point win for Southern Miss.

In games where Nevada was a similar underdog...

Game 10 vs. La. Tech, the computer views Nevada as a 2.9 point underdog against La. Tech in a game they lost by 4 points. Nevada actually out gained La. Tech by 53 yards but turned the ball over 2 more times than did La. Tech. A closer look at the play by play of the game shockingly reveals that, despite the turnovers, there was no adjustment needed in the final margin of victory.
Game 4 vs. Boise State, the computer views Nevada as an 11.7 point underdog against Boise State in a game they lost by 20 points. Nevada was out gained in this contest by 147 yards in a game that was pretty much in line with what the score margin was. At worst this was more like a 21 point loss for Nevada.
Game 11 vs. Utah St., the computer views Nevada as a 1.3 point favorite against Utah St. Despite being a favorite, Nevada lost the game by 4 points despite out gaining Utah St. by 127 yards. A closer look at the game reveals that this was more in line with a 1 point Nevada loss than the 4 point loss they suffered.

In other words the AbsolutePigskin.com computer is telling me that Southern Miss. is 10 points better than Nevada.

PICK: SOUTHERN MISS. - 8.5

RESULT: LOSS, NEVADA COVER +1.5

FINAL: SOUTHERN MISS 24 NEVADA 17 (THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN AN EASY COVER IF NOT FOR 2 MISSED FIELD GOALS FROM SOUTHERN MISS.)

Computer Picks (12/22) MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Tom Loker — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 03:57:00 GMT

What's the slogan, "uh oh better get MAACO"? That doesn't really have much to do with anything here in the car collision repair company bowl but even MAACO couldn't repair the disappointment of the season Airzona State has had this year. All leading to coach Dennis Erickson getting fired. Can Arizona State finally live up to expectations here and can their "Desert Swarm" defense stop all everything Boise State Kellen Moore and the Boise State offense? Let's see what the AbsolutePigskin computer has to say.

The AbsolutePigskin computer views Boise State as a 7.9 point favorite over Arizona State....

In games where Boise State was a similar favorite this year...

Game 9 vs. TCU: The AbsolutePigskin computer views Boise State as a 6.8 point favorite over TCU. Boise State actually ended up losing this game by 1 point. A closer look at the game reveals that Boise State actually out gained TCU by 71 yards but lost the battle of turnovers by 3. When you examine the play by play of the game and take into account the turnovers, etc... Boise State actually should have won this game by 5 points. Much more in line with computer predictions.
Game 4 vs. Nevada: The AbsolutePigskin computer views Boise State as an 11.7 point favorite over Nevada. Boise State out gained Nevada by 147 yards and neither team won the turnover battle. Boise State won this game legitimately by 20 points without any adjustment needed.
Game 3 vs. Tulsa: The AbsolutePigskin computer views Boise State as a 4.9 point favorite over Tulsa. Boise State out gained Tulsa by 167 yards and Tulsa turned the ball over 3 more times than did Boise State in the game. A closer look at the play by play of the game reveals a game that Boise State, despite winning by 20 points, probably should have won closer to 7 points. In other words closer to what the AbsolutePigskin computer predicted.

In games where Arizona State was a similar underdog this year...

Game 7 vs. Oregon: The AbsolutePigskin computer views Arizona State as a 9.9 point underdog against Oregon. They lost this game by 14 points but a closer look at the play by play reveals Oregon out gained Arizona St by 124 yards and neither team benefited from an advantage in turnovers. If you really dig deep into the play by play of the game it reveals a few special teams blunders, namely a missed field goal by Oregon, and Arizona State easily could have lost this game by 17 points.
Game 4 vs. Southern California: The AbsolutePigskin computer views Arizona State as a 7 point underdog in the game to USC. Arizona State surprisingly won this game by 21 points but a closer look at the game reveals USC actually out gained Arizona State by 10 yards but Arizona State enjoyed 4 more turnovers than did USC. If you take these turnovers into account as well as a look at the play by play this game is dead even at worst.
Game 2 vs. Missouri: The AbsolutePigskin computer views Missouri as a 1.3 point favorite over Arizona State. This game was tied at the end of regulation with Arizona State pulling it out by 7 points in overtime. Missouri actually had a chance at the end of regulation to win the game with a 48 yard field goal they missed. All things considered this game went almost exactly according to predictions by the computer.

All things considered Boise St. is 10 points better than Arizona St.

PICK: Arizona State +14 (NOTE... ITS ABOUT TEN MINUTES SINCE I WROTE THIS AND THIS GAME ALREADY IS BEING FOUND AT 14.5 IN CERTAIN BOOKS... I SUSPECT SHARP MONEY WILL COME IN ON 14.5 AND QUITE POSSIBLY KEEP IT FROM CREEPING HIGHER)

RESULT: PICTURES WIN... GAME LOSS, BOISE STATE COVERS BY A LOT.

FINAL: BOISE STATE - A LOT ARIZONA STATE - A LITTLE

Because it's Arizona State it's only fair that we include bonus photos of Arizona State girls... (I should have attended Arizona State)

Computer Picks (12/22) San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Tom Loker — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 03:45:00 GMT

Well in another bowl game with another ridiculous name we take a look at TCU vs. La. Tech. The AbsolutePigskin computer views TCU as a 2.4 point favorite over La. Tech.

In games where TCU was a similar favorite...

Game 8 vs. BYU: TCU is viewed by the computer as a 2.1 point favorite in the game. TCU won this game by 10 points but a closer look at the play by play for the game reveals that TCU was out gained by BYU by 71 yards but won the turnover margin by 3. This game, all things adjusted, was more in line with predictions and TCU should have won this game closer to a 4 point margin as opposed to the 10 point margin they enjoyed.
Game 5 vs. SMU: TCU is viewed by the computer as a 4.4 point favorite over SMU. TCU lost this game by 7 points. A closer look at this game reveals that TCU could have easily lost this game by 13 points instead of the 7 point loss they "enjoyed".
Game 6 vs. San Diego State: TCU is viewed by the computer as a 7.9 point favorite over SDSU. TCU won this contest by 13 points and outgained SDSU by 150 yards. If you really dig deeper into the game it appears both teams turned the ball over 4 times a piece and as far as point adjustments are concerned TCU probably only should have won this game by no more than 6 points... closer to predictions than the 13 point margin of victory they accomplished.

In games where La. Tech was a similar underdog...

Game 4 vs. Miss. St.: La. Tech is viewed by the computer as a 1.7 point underdog in the game. La. Tech wound up losing this game by 6 points and lost the turnover battle by 2. La. Tech was only out gained offensively by 19 yards in the contest. If you really examine the play by play of the game you will see that La. Tech could have actually lost this game by 9 points instead of the 6 they actually lost by.
Game 1 vs. Southern Miss: Hard to take the first game of the season as a real measuring stick but La. Tech is viewed by the computer as a 2.3 point underdog in the game. They wound up losing this game by 2 points but were actually out gained in the contest by 135 yards. La. Tech actually enjoyed a 2 turnovers more than did Miss. St. and if you adjust for all these factors it is quite possible that La. Tech should have lost this game closer to a 5 point margin.
Game 11 vs. Nevada: La. Tech is actually viewed as a 2.9 point favorite in the game and the game went pretty much according to predictions, resulting in a 4 point victory.

If you really take a look at both teams and how they have fared in similar situations it appears that TCU is 5 points better than La. Tech.

PICK: La. Tech +8.5

RESULT: WIN, LA TECH COVER +1.5

FINAL: LA TECH 24 TCU 31

Source: Ohio State to receive 1 year bowl ban...

Tom Loker — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 19:12:00 GMT

AbsolutePigskin.com has learned that Ohio State will receive a one year bowl ban in connection with the tattoo for memorabilia scandal that rocked Columbus last year costing then coach Jim Tressel his job. Jim Tressel will be hit with a "show cause" penalty which basically means any NCAA penalties imposed on a coach involved in major rules violations at a university's athletic program will remain in force if he is hired by any other NCAA member institution. This will be in effect for five years.

Computer Picks (12/20) Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl

Tom Loker — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 03:43:00 GMT

Today we examine one of my favorite bowl games, namely due to the nonsensical name it sports, the "Beef O' Brady's Bowl. (Really guys?)

In any case we have the "riveting" match-up between the Florida International Panters and the Marshal Thundering Herd. Now I'm not exactly sure what Beef 'O' Brady's is nor do I really care to know... one thing I do know is the AbsolutePigskin.com computer views Marshall as a 2.6 point favorite. In games where Marshall was a similar favorite this year...

East Carolina, Game 12 (last game of regular season) - Marshall is viewed by the computer as a 1.4 point favorite over East Carolina and managed to win the game by 7 points. A closer look at the play by play for the game shows a game where Marshall benefited from 2 East Carolina turnovers and out gained East Carolina by 28 yards. If you adjust the game for the turnovers and really look at the play by play this is MUCH closer to the 1 point victory predicted by the computer.
Rice, Game 7 - Marshall is viewed by the computer as a 4.4 point favorite over Rice. Marshall won this game by 4 points. A closer look at this game reveals a game that when you take turnovers out of the equation Marshall probably should have lost by about a field goal as opposed to winning by 4 points.

In games where FIU is viewed as a similar underdog by the computer...

Arkansas St, Game 7 - FIU is viewed by the computer as a 1.4 point underdog in the game. FIU went on to lose this game by 18 but a closer look at the play by play of the game reveals FIU was actually out gained by 98 yards but managed to win the turnover battle by one. All things adjusted to take turnovers out of the equation FIU actually could have ended up losing this game by 21 points.
UCF, Game 3 - FIU is viewed by the computer as a 2.8 point underdog in the game. FIU manged to win this game by 7 points but a closer look at the play by play of the game reveals a game where FIU was at best dead even points wise with UCF. They manged to win the turnover battle by 2 but were out gained by 61 yards. All stats adjusted this could have been more like a 3 point loss for FIU... closer to the predicted score margin.

The two teams actually share a common opponent... UCF. As explained FIU beat UCF in a game where at best they were dead even but at worst were about 3 points worse than UCF. On the other hand Marshall faced UCF as a 1.2 point underdog in the game that they managed to lose by 10 points. A closer examination of the game reveals a game where where they were out gained by UCF by 257 yards and probably could have ended up losing this game by 12 points, despite winning the turnover battle by 2.

This game admittedly scares me a bit thanks in no small part to the common opponent. However games where both teams were against similarly rated situations it appears that FIU is at best 1 point better than Marshall.

Pick: Marshall +4

Result: WIN, MARSHALL COVER +14

Score: Marshall 20 FIU 10