Achieving Financial Freedom Through Financial Investment

台灣股神胡立陽：金錢遊戲結束了‧你將受苦10年

2013-08-25T20:58:00.001+08:00

“最近，大家身體都很不舒服，台北很多人頭痛、眼痛，到醫院都檢查不出毛病，有人問我，究竟該去哪家醫院？結果，我告訴他只有一個醫生可以治療，那就是伯南克醫生……”

曾被美國華爾街稱為“股市神童”的胡立陽，來馬不忘幽默風趣地大展本色，笑言，望著美國聯邦儲備局伯老，一下說QE（量化寬鬆）要結束，一下很曖昧；今天暗示可能印更多鈔票，明天又說要縮減債券；盤旋在可能、也許、不排除、但是……的暗語中，誰不給他搞得頭疼？

全場哄堂大笑後，他又馬上一臉正經，語重心長地說：“不過，我要告訴你，金錢遊戲結束了，未來10年你將受苦。”

他在講座結束，接受《投資致富》的獨家專訪時直言不諱，過去大家瘋狂追逐投資產品，股市、黃金、房地產，現在QE要退潮了，要小心謹慎，尤其沒有本質的資產，價格可能重返2008年金融風暴的價位。

“每10年是個週期，很多人不知道，以為房價不會跌，黃金是個最好的例子，再穩健的投資品，也會下跌，何況房地產？”

他認為，當資金退潮時，靠資金發威的產品都會士氣大落，任何東西漲得太高，即違背了投資原則，都要小心。

“若你現在仍在追逐已高高在上的房地產，請記得我的話，風險就在後頭，接下來的10年，金錢遊戲沒了，過度投機的資產價都會調整，所以，無論你手上持有的任何投資產品，只要投機性高的，無論是房地產、黃金，甚至債券，未來3至5年，甚至10年都必須付出代價。”

QE退場
金融秩序恢復正軌

QE風暴一觸即發，全世界唱淡新興市場股市，唯恐資金回流到美國，但對於胡立陽，在資金的亂市中，無論是發達還是新興市場，只要漲得太高，都會回調。

“QE若退場，必將造成全球股市大跌，美國股市也會很痛苦。”話一說完，他又滔滔不絕分享他的小故事。

曾經在講座會上，有個來賓問他，QE退場，表示美國經濟正在復甦，股市應該不會下跌？

“是的，這種說法表面聽來似乎有理，但他們忽略了，股市早已提前反映經濟了。再說，華爾街股市這兩三年來的暴漲，走的是資金行情，與經濟發展完全脫鉤，否則以不到2%的GDP（國內生產總值），怎能扛起15000點的道指？”

他以研究近半世紀來，當全球資金由松轉緊時，常會出現幾個連鎖反應，創造出了“QE退場四部曲”，幾乎所有資產都會應聲下滑。

“資金流動就像戰場，十年河東，十年河西，QE是分界線，讓金融秩序重返正軌。”

他認為，2013年下半年全球資金開始退潮，美股、美債雙雙大跌；美元走強，黃金受挫，都是無可避免的趨勢，一旦升息，跌勢還可能蔓延至房市。

錢壓枕頭底
下半年不投資

下半年的投資機會在哪裡？

胡立陽以一句“NO”，一語驚醒夢中人，還調侃股神巴菲特，直言在亂世中，投資大師的話不及一名好老師。

“我在25歲時進入華爾街，從未看過這樣的情景――2兆美元，每天像個禿鷹在空中盤旋，利率低，錢太多了，每個嚷著基金經理請幫我投資，然而，現在，對不起，沒有機會留給你！”

過去那麼多年，資金到處亂竄，蝗蟲過境，還會留下“黃金”給你嗎？胡立陽按過去數年的資金炒作解釋，該玩的都已經玩完了，還有甚麼可以撿便宜的，不要再做夢了！

“錢該怎麼辦？當然是放到枕頭底下，最好是把錢抱著睡，否則，受不了誘惑，遲早會賠光。”

他直言，任何人若一面買股票，一面告訴你該買甚麼，你要小心，包括巴菲特，因為這都是利益衝突。

“我是台灣股神，我現在已經不買股票了，而是當個老師……”

他笑言，自己發跡比巴菲特還早，雖然名氣不及巴菲特，但他和一般股神不一樣的是，他不要在股市中賺錢，而是要贏得掌聲。

“巴菲特重視的是賺多少錢，其實是把快樂建築在你們的身上。我只能說，他們都是很棒的投資者，但不是老師。”

推崇股票
可低買高賣

然而，胡立陽所謂的“放到枕頭底下”，實為暗示“等待時機”，將來股票市場還是有利可圖。

他不忘提醒投資者等待時機，若一定要投資，股票仍是最好的選擇。

“時機是等出來的，要有耐心，否則，你會壯志未酬先死！”

動盪就有機會！他認為，股票之所以是投資首選，因為可以玩“低進高出”的遊戲，反觀，房地產和黃金，都是大趨勢，一來可能就10年，沒有辦法在中間出場，所以宜避開不動產。

他說，投資者應該相信趨勢，投資任何資產，一定要注意趨勢，如果趨勢都抓不准，甚麼都免談。

“請不要相信成本價，有些投資品的成本價是彈性的，甚麼房子原料價起，大市不妙時，即使黃金打造的房子也會元氣大傷。”

黃金周期
10年牛市20年熊市

向來有獨特洞悉力的胡立陽，對黃金的看法，也明顯和大師不一樣，針對早前一瀉千里的黃金，留下了“10年牛市、20年熊市”的“伏筆”，直言只有當黃金價跌至每安士960美元，才會喊進場。

“是的，我和商品大師羅傑斯的看法不太一樣……”

他預見，黃金會持續跌，除了因為它本身沒有甚麼特別價值外，也鑑於黃金和美元的關係如“蹺蹺板”，美元強，不利於美元計價的黃金、石油等走勢。

他也提到，美國接下來經濟復甦的機會比較大，美元強勢，黃金就弱勢，過去從未有例外。

過去經驗來看，石油價曾自每桶147美元，除2變為75美元，甚至可能再除以2，跌剩35美元；石油價曾在2008和2009年時跌剩35美元，剩四分之一的價位。

他認為，現在的資金還蠻充沛，這種情景不至於出現，但黃金至少可能要“除以2”才值得進場，以黃金價最高點曾為每安士1千920美元來看，所以很可能回到960美元後才叫便宜！

“記得，黃金有個｀好10年，壞20年’的道理，進場要做好準備，現在買進，要想，可能會套住20年。”

“馬股穩中求勝”

台灣股神眼中的馬來西亞股市，雖是個穩中求勝的股市，惟相比馬股在2008年金融風暴時的低點838點，馬股畢竟已不是便宜區，未來多少會受美股盤整影響，謹慎是上策。

胡立陽以股市“倍增”法估計，馬股約1600點就已經達滿足點，1700至1800點，可以說是屬於往高檔方向去，若股價高估，經濟成長再好，也會回檔調整。

“我對大馬的GDP很有信心，相信東盟股市強勁也有道理，但目前都處於高點，還是需要謹慎看待。”

他坦言，馬股震盪幅度可能不大，但因為華爾街股市漲多必跌，一旦該情況發生，必將考驗馬來西亞的本質。

他解釋，一般上，若高檔無法支撐，是因經濟無法支持，但目前為止，經濟還算足以支撐大市。

“任何時候，當股市處於高檔區時，經濟若沒有趕上來，股市會拉回，若經濟同樣快速發展，就不用擔心。”

在胡立陽眼裡，大馬股市中規中矩，一步一步地前進，每100點就一個樓梯檻，1600、1700、1800點，像在爬樓梯，很有秩序。

他也不忘分享第一次來馬至今的感受：“這大概是4年前了，馬來西亞和新加坡一樣，不斷地進步，我只能說，你們都很幸福。”

投資“秘”室

沒有價值投資
只有價格投資

問：你是否主張價值投資？

答：我從來不主張，因為在亞洲股市，從來沒有價值投資，價值投資只有在很成熟的市場才會有，像美國股市。不過，今天，甚至美國股市，也沒有價值投資。

我強調的是價格投資，任何投資品能夠讓你賺錢，它就有價值，讓你賠錢，它分文不值。簡而言之，同樣一隻股票，如果你買在高檔，就是痛苦的開始，還有甚麼價值可言？

舉例，一個股項30塊，轉眼變了60塊，亞洲股市根本投機性就很高，那麼投機的市場，你今天覺得有價值，兩個禮拜後，就已經被“高估”，變得沒價值了。

曾有投資者問我，為何他買的都是有價值的股項，但是都賠錢了，我告訴他，他只注意價值，卻遺忘了價格，而價值是隨著價格變動的，漲高了，就沒有價值了，作為投資者，不應先入為主地認為是好股票，這是最糟糕的！

我堅信，價格投資勝過價值投資，要怎麼抓住高檔、低檔，是一門技術，遠遠勝過你去分析會計原則，甚麼本益比、成長率，都是沒有意義的，尤其亞洲股市，因為變化太快，波動不靖，絕對沒有所謂的價值投資。

問：你的投資秘訣為何？

答：“買在低點”！只有買在低點，你才能安心，如果不能買在低點，一切免談，否則，你在播下痛苦的種子。

當你問我房地產、股票、黃金可不可以買？我都會先回問，那你覺得它們便不便宜？

如果你的答案是不便宜，那就別買。

很多人總是違背自己想法，不便宜了，還拼命去追，最終被套牢。記得，“避開高點，買在低點”。

問：如何掌握高低點？

答：要掌握高低點，有很多公式，如所謂的漲一倍賣壓，從底部（2008年金融風暴）漲一倍計，舉例，台北股市（4200點到8400點）、香港（11500點到23000點），日本（7650點到15300點），這些股市，你都可以注意到，每每升至一倍的高點就下來了。

至於甚麼是高檔？甚麼是低檔？其實，所有股票，甚至黃金或房地產，都有一個走勢圖，我們一般用10週移動平均線來看。移動平均線如同投資品的生命線，線往上表示OK，若往下翻，表示已逐漸出現問題，心跳要停止了，若大幅往下翻，可能沒有生命跡象了。

問：你的投資研究可否歸納為技術分析？

答：這不是技術分析，而是統計過去規律的現象，分析股市過去常發生的現象。

你知道，一年之中，全球股市最難做是哪個月份？我根據全世界40幾個國家的股市統計，發現最難做的是8月，第二難做的是7月，這兩個月股市下跌幾率最高，第三是10月份；最好做的月份，是11、12和1月，在這段時間，股市的勝算最高。這不是保證，只是或然率。

問：那麼，你相信歷史會重演？

答：是的，歷史重演的幾率很高，很多人說，不可能，因為時空背景不一樣，但是，人類的行為永遠不會改變，反應不會改變。

問：大市不好時，你也不會建議別人放眼“遺珠股”？

答：我一向主張買股票要注意大盤的趨勢，由大至小，由上而下，先要看全世界的環境，再來看整個股市，之後，才去看小股票的板塊，最後才看個股。不能因為喜歡個股，而沒去看大環境，像美國股市大跌，還自覺沒問題，這是不對的，尤其今年。

我可以肯定，QE結束，對全世界絕對不是好消息，金錢遊戲結束，很多投資產品都會受到衝擊，尤其今年下半年和明年上半年。

很多投資品，都有可能出現大幅度回檔，因為估值太高，我們不能不看大環境，還在拼命研究個股。

問：你從來不長期投資？

答：絕對沒有“長期投資”這4個字，任何投資，都要看趨勢線、移動線，若10週平均移動線永遠向上，我就長持，相反的，若翻下，我暫時跟它說“再見”，等他翻回來，我再買。

很多人提長期投資，其實是自己騙自己，股票賠了，就說是長期投資。千萬不要這樣安慰自己，因為長期投資，很可能造成長期痛苦。

我喜歡長期投資，但很多時候，情況會改變，我們就必須跟著調整。

問：要怎樣才能不在股市中賠錢？

答：老是有人問，為何他們在股市中總是賠錢？我告訴他們，錯在他們是正常人！

我的投資原則是低買，正常人在股市裡不可能賺錢，只有不正常的人，才能賺錢，因為只有怪人才會買在最低點。

金融風暴時，正常人不敢進場，股市大好時，“他”才興高采烈進場，結果買在最高點。因此，要戰勝股市，就要變成不正常人。

培養喜怒哀樂很重要，別人開心時，你要感到傷心，股市漲時，大家都在歡慶時，你應該提醒自己，可能有風險，相反的，大家都在擔心，你就要想，撿便宜的機會來了，所以是背道而馳。

如果你無法培養這種心情，就在想買股時，賣出；想賣股時，買進，一定賺到錢！

問：QE退潮的投資策略？

答：QE的變數太多，這幾個月要謹慎，即使進場，也不宜大事投資。

然而，記得，在股市中，別人每犯一個錯，是帶給你一個賺錢的機會，或為你累積財富。

股票要賺錢，就是要股票跌，才能買在低點，金融風暴、次貸危機、歐債危機，都讓你有機會買在低檔。

很多人，股票跌時，心情很不好，在怨天尤人，不要罵，記得，這是你撿便宜的機會。

投資沒有捷徑，要做投資要多學習，多看書，學習別人的經驗和知識。

問：給大馬投資者的一席話？

答：今年，從現在開始，到2014年，全世界投資市場都會大起大落，一不小心會賠大錢，但你可能因為別人的粗心而賺到錢，最動盪的時期，有真功夫才能成為最後的贏家。

新年頭三天
看出一年走勢

問：你自創了很多獨特的投資理論，是否崇尚過任何大師？

答：（笑）我是個自戀狂，我都喜歡自己的東西，看別人的不對，但看自己的，卻愈看愈滿意！

我覺得，每個人都有他的強處，誰能夠在這世界上最快速地吸收別人的優點，集合一起再放到自己身上，誰就是最棒的人。我在這方面還做的不夠努力，有時候太忙了，如別人問我對哪個投資人的看法，我其實還沒時間去研究呢。不過，我相信，他們都很棒。

我的很多理論都是自創的，像前兩天到新加坡演講，我坐飛機回台北時，就創了“人面獅身法”。我無時無刻都在想，甚麼東西最能夠讓人容易接受。

其實，我還有很多數據研究，只是，未能一一跟大家分享，如一年的頭三天，其實就可以看到整年股市的漲勢，像去年股市在頭三天開低走高，結果去年，大部份股市都開低走高。隨今年股市是開高走低，未來很可能隨著美國股市場開高走低。

我喜歡研究股市大自然-春夏秋冬，也喜歡研究歷史軌跡，這也是為何，我會依美國過去多年資金縮減時的現象，創造出“QE四步曲”。

問：為何你會放棄在華爾街當投資顧問的優差，投身於教育？

答：我在華爾街曾經是個很成功的投資顧問，但我從小也很喜歡講話，直到在華爾街遇到我最大的恩師，那是我的客戶――一個美國老太太。

老太太臨終前堅持要和我見面，那天，她緊握著我的手，給了我很大的建議，她說，我會是個非常好的老師，因為我能夠把複雜的東西化為幽默風趣的東西，分享深奧的投資學問像在講故事，所以她的晚年，常因為跟我講話得到了快樂。她覺得，我應該把這發揚光大，因為當投資顧問，只能讓少部份的人受惠，但如果到全世界去授課，就能夠造福成千上萬的人。

我當時望著這生重病的老太太，很感動，眼淚也掉了下來，後來她過世了，我也把她的話聽進去，我決定放棄一切，回到台灣，從頭開始，當個小小的老師。

我在34歲時回到台灣，擔任了很多職位，包括在兩所大學，首創股票投資學，當時台灣的股市如不毛之地，我就像到非洲去賣鞋子。

很多人問我有沒有後悔？我覺得，人生只活這一輩子，沒有後悔，不過下輩子，對不起，我不會做這行了，因為當教育工作者，真的很辛苦，也是條很漫長的路。

“後QE不會爆經濟危機”

“如果你今天問我會不會有金融風暴？那麼這一問題就不會發生了，任何風暴，即使發生，來得快，去得快，雷聲大雨點小。”

QE退場引發風暴隱憂，但胡立陽卻非常篤定地作出上述回應，然後又開始像說故事似的分享他獨到的見解。

“一百年前，有個蝴蝶效應，亞馬遜河一隻蝴蝶要飛了，就引起了龍捲風的揣測，因為不知道，一個小動作就能引起一連串的巨大反應，但現在，只要任何想到的東西，都不會發生，因為大家都會謹慎和阻止其發生。”

儘管很多經濟學家都在2008年金融風暴發生時說，這次的風暴可能較1929-1933年的美國大蕭條更嚴重，明年可能再度爆發金融風暴，胡立陽的立場卻非常堅定，相信經濟風暴重演的幾率愈來愈小，後QE的資本風暴不至於引爆經濟或金融風暴，只是，美國股市會痛跌。

“通常最可怕，是沒料到的，反而沒想到的才會發生，那才令人措手不及。”

後記：

胡立陽雖不是首度來馬，股票演講卻是第一次，訪談結束後，他笑言：“我個性比較直，不會轉彎，都斬釘截鐵的，美股、黃金會跌，就說會跌……”其實，在如此不確定的年代，他這一箭命中投資者決策的作風，正是大馬投資者引頸長盼的貴人。

“人面獅身”獨創投資法

胡立陽獨創“人面獅身投資法”――人面的智慧，獅身的強壯。

買進股票的條件：

1.隨便選6隻股票，每隻股票的10日線必須是翻揚的。

2.一個禮拜後，將出現下跌的股票全數賣出，上升的股票再加碼一張。

3.第二週重複動作，上漲的股票再加碼一張，若下跌，則減碼一張。

若股價出現以下3種情況，一定要賣出持股。

1.週線出現大於10%的一根長黑。

2.週線出現連兩黑。

3.股價跌落持股的平均成本價。

胡立陽小檔案

美國加州聖塔克拉大學會計學士、企管碩士，26歲才進入美國證券界，33歲時已經是美國最大證券公司――美林證券首位華籍副總裁兼矽谷分公司總經理，後回台灣從事教育工作。

胡立陽因擅長以幽默風趣的說故事方式分享投資心得為名，被譽為“亞洲股市教父”、“台灣股神”、“華爾街股市神童”等。現今流行的“名嘴”一詞也是20年前台灣媒體為形容他的演講魅力而創造出來的。

他目前除了在世界各地為投資大眾服務，也有不少投資著作，《股票投資100招》當年初上市出現搶購狂潮，一度創下台灣出版史上的紀錄。（星洲日報／投資致富‧紅人館）

與時拼經．佈局下半年投資馬股6月或重現生機

2011-05-29T21:29:00.003+08:00

全球經濟在2011年繼續以多種速度復甦，即將踏入下半年，美國復甦步伐將領先其他發達經濟體，新興市場則面臨不斷上升的通脹威脅，及利率升高，西方貨幣政策將維持促進經濟增長的立場。

我國當然也是“一份子”，身處“高通脹、利率趨升”的大環境，國家經濟發展的指標之一馬股市，在上半年也給予“很大”反應，走勢極度“耍情緒”。

不過，這一切看似都在資本投資規劃師葉大衛的掌握中，年初他測出，今年外圍多災多難，比較寒冷和多雨水，小心曇花一現的現象。

果然，回顧富馬隆綜指自1月份衝高至1574.49點歷史高點后，迄今接近打回原形，回落到去年底水平。

距離下半年僅一個月，投資者是時候佈署下半年策略。

指數運行看，6月份富馬隆綜指將在月初謹慎反彈，但很快將在20至24日出現調整，投資者要在這5天把握佈局機會，享受7月份、8月份和9月份、下半年的漲潮！

葉大衛年初接受《中國報》專訪時說，馬股今年的數字密碼是3、6、9，全年最敏感和變盤月份。

當時他指出，3月最有可能變盤的週期是7日至10日，及20日至23日。
事實確是如此，富馬隆綜指3月1日先以高漲10.99點打開當月走勢，之后在10日、11日、14日和15日，連續4個交易日走低，累積跌幅39.55點。

一輪“小跌潮”后，迎來令人意外的“大漲潮”，3月16日至31日合計漲幅60.99點，最后以1545.13點結束月份走勢，全月漲了42.89點。

若投資者及時在下跌的4個交易日間補貨，再于月底前出貨，短短半個月已有賺幅。

調整也是好時機
　
如今，葉大衛再為馬股下半年把脈，根據大自然生態，馬股6月份將出現3月份的格局，出現幾率將高達70%。

“6月初將呈反彈衝高走勢，在20日至24日稍作休息晉盤整期，這時正是投資者需要佈局，以進入7月份、8月份和9月份的漲潮。”

但他也提醒投資者，若6月份馬股未有調整，往后的3個月份將面臨下行，需加倍小心。

葉大衛說，最近走勢都在1490點支撐水平上波動，表現穩定。如果在6月份不幸跌破，將有明顯的跌勢。

“不過，對未來可能的調整格局，也不必過于悲觀，恰好造就進場買股的大好時機。”

他重申，今年不是投資年，進場機會不多，時間非常短速，要懂得把握，但要有明確的投資策略。

漲潮不持久虛有吐氣

上半年馬股已呈“兔”氣揚眉，和“兔”飛猛進格局，投資者下半年要引以為鑑，小心為上。　
葉大衛2月份以“兔”氣揚眉，和“兔”飛猛進，形容今年的馬股。
“吐”氣揚眉除了是“吉祥話”，也可解讀為，馬股漲潮是一口虛有和不實際的“吐氣”。
“突”飛猛進，表示“突然”走高的股市，不能夠持久。
翻看今年首5個月的走勢，發現富馬隆綜指自1月17日漲至歷史新高1574.49點后，往后多半起伏不定，截至5月20日，指數僅稍比去年封關水平高出22.12點，相較漲幅一度達到55.58點。

此外，1月3日至7日連續5個交易日創下史上新高，可是在18日至26日以6連跌作回禮。
這反映當時的漲勢是虛有的“吐氣”，不持久。

漲交投愈弱市值愈高

過去4個月出現“奇怪”的現象，大盤成交量連月下跌，馬股市值則增加中。
數據顯示，1月份馬股總成交量達406億8650萬股，2月份降至315億643萬股，3月份減至298億8100萬股，4月份再減到272億9023萬股，成交量連續4個月萎縮。
然而，馬股市值卻逐漸攀升，1月份達1兆2839億8000萬令吉，2月份稍回落至1兆2567億1000萬令吉，3月份增至1兆3109億9000萬令吉，4月份穩定在1兆3107億9000萬令吉。
數據反映，即使1月份的成交量是最龐大，馬股市值也不及4月份“交投低靡”之時。
這表示，當外圍因素不確定時，投資者皆改變投資策略，將資金轉向特定藍籌股或表現穩定的股項，集中投資，部份股的股價因而受到刺激，帶動整體市值向上。

令吉的運勢今年將走盡，明年要把舞台讓給美元

葉大衛說，令吉上半年衝破3.00水平，若漲勢持續，並非好事，需加以控制。
“早前，令吉成功敲破2.90，接著頂多是小刀踞大樹嘗試上敲2.80，惟這股‘氣息’不會持久。”

他指出，若令吉要持續升值，必須要在今年“完事”，皆因明年將是美元上場的一年，美元會走強，進而影響令吉表現。

在通脹壓力催化，加上市場臆測國家銀行將通過升息克制通脹，帶動令吉兌美元匯率在4月25日闊別13年后，首次升破3水平。

這是1997/98年亞洲金融風暴，以及令吉與美元脫鉤以來，令吉首次突破3。
隨著國行提前在5月5日調高隔夜官方利率（OPR）至3%后，馬上終止市場消息炒作，令吉隨之下跌至3以上，走勢曇花一現。

葉大衛說，如果令吉今年衝高無果，將在年底走近上升尾聲。

原產品短暫回落長期看俏

今年是原產品的“陽年”，價格目前只是暫時走下波，很快將恢復氣勢如虹。

自日本爆發嚴重地震后，原油價格過去數週大幅下跌，整體方向變不確定，增加走勢的波動。
紐約原油期貨價格在5月2日創下每桶近115美元（約345令吉）后，直線下滑，單是5月份已挫跌近13%，徘徊90美元（約270令吉）水平多時。
由于美國將進入夏季開車季節，原油需求自然增加，帶動7月份原油期貨價格在5月20日重新站上100美元（約300令吉）。

這就是葉大衛所指的，要漲跑不了，要跌逃不了。

他說，今年是原產品走紅的一年，即使間中受一些外圍因素影響，也將迅速調整過來，出現力彈。

“原產品的泡沫週期，是否爆破，2012年是關鍵年；金價油價或在這年‘破功’。”

魚的投資策略買在魚尾賣在魚頭

葉大衛說，股票投資就像買魚，並奉勸不是人人有機會吃“魚頭”，貪心的話一個不小心會隨時啃到。

他在授教魚的投資策略時說，以散戶的最愛IOI集團（IOICORP，1961，主要板種植）為例，2009年2月因遠期外匯（foreign　exchange　forwards）操作不當蒙受龐大外匯虧損時，公司股價寫歷史低點，每股約2令吉，當時投資者是買在“魚尾”。

“股價漲至逾4令吉，稱之魚身，而早前高漲到6令吉，則是魚頭部位。”

他指出，不是所有人會吃“魚頭”，這表示要在最高價脫手很難；如果明知道無法啃魚頭，就應在“魚身”時安全脫售。

葉大衛說，大豆油和原產品價格近期回跌，故拖累IOI集團，此現象告訴投資者可分批買入，先在5月份的5.10令吉價位買進，再于6月份的4.20至4.30令吉，買進第二批。

2012非末日是投資年

2012年不是世界末日，而是投資好年！

葉大衛說，今年的投資比較難佈署，漲勢和跌勢不明顯且短暫，僅數天時間供“下手”，使今年的投資策略是不能久留，不能眷戀，要適時“放手”，待另一時機出現時再“出手”。

眼明手快的投資者，自在今年有斬獲，若反應較慢的投資者，也無需失望，可寄望來年。

他指出，市場都談論2012年是世界末日，相反明年會是投資大年，將出現明顯的進場和出場格局。

“一年下來會有幾個月段大幅下跌（進場），之后再大力反彈（退場），過程比較長，不及今年必須數天內補貨。”

葉大衛是利用“東方訣數”，一套涵蓋“密碼”、“實戰”、“管理”和“修為”四大層面的全面投資技術。

Source: Chinapress (28/5/11)

Case Study: Robert Kuok's Legend - PPB Group Bhd

2011-05-22T15:07:00.001+08:00

1. PPB quit and sold the profitable sugar biz in malaysia to Felda Global Ventures & TWS in Jan 2010 (Rumuors: the decision was due to political issue - Sugar price never increase during Robert Kuok's period)

2. PPB's flour milling arm FFM Group - The biggest Flour market player in Malaysia and is expanding aggressively locally and established Flour biz in Indonesia in year 2009 with small market share, plan to expand and target of 5%-10% Indonesia market share means 10% of 240mil Indonesia population = 100% malaysia population.

3. PPB plans to aggressively expanding the flour biz locally, Indonesia, Vietnam and China in future.

4. PPB is establishing the "Bread" business in near term.

Comments:

As a wise person billionaire Robert Kuok sees the huge potential business opportunity in flour and bread business in the future - the high inflation era, the projection of food demand remains intact and should be in the direction with the growth in population and demand. Thus, It serve a good guidance that food biz is still the save haven, high potential, stable income, defensive play (subject to right product at right time).

CENSOF - The key software provider & support for government

2011-02-17T17:36:00.002+08:00

NEW IPO

This BUMI listed company has just being listed on 31st Jan 2011, the IPO offer price is RM0.93. It is trading at RM1.34 with the high volume support. It has made an impressive of about 30% return since the IPO.

Strong & Stable Clientele

With the strong BUMI managment team, as well as the establish business in government sectors, it successfully penetrate and gaining more business from the government sectors. Among the main clients are EPF, SOCSO, Ministry departments.

Pioneer among BUMI IPO companies

Censof is one of the main BUMI software listed companies which is supporting by the government with the theme "Goverment to support at least 5 BUMI companies to list in Bursa in 2011". Thus, Censof has became the pioneer and the bencemark for the rest. There is only one objective for the company as well as the stock price: "To get succeeded and all the way up north"!

Good investment opportunity

Based on the above factors, I would give a buy call for CENSOF as more on political play or Election play! Target price may goes up to RM1.60-RM1.80 easily.

Market is under healthy correction - Clear all holding position & stay sideline for next bargain chance

2011-02-11T12:18:00.002+08:00

Tired Bull

After many months of bull run since March 2009, the bull started showing sign of tiring and a break is much needed to re-energize the bull. The current Asian markets correction is partly due to high inflation impact, as most governments have no choice to further tighten the monetery policy like increase the interest rate and reserve to counter the high inflation.

Immediate Trading Strategy

As a result of sudden pull out by the foreign fund from the Asian markets, it created a bad sign that this correction will stay longer and more severe than any during this long bull run. Thus, I would suggest to clear all stock holding position, keep 100% bullets, and waiting for bottom fishing opportunity.

Immediate support level: 1,480, 1,450, 1,400.

CNY Mood - Stay Sideline & Focus on CNY Celebration

2011-01-23T09:53:00.002+08:00

Fundamental & Technical Commentary

As of last week, there were some profit taking and retracement on global markets especially in Asian region due to several matters like High inflation rates in Emerging markets and US & EU economy recovery momentum.

Arrival of High Inflation

The emerging markets like China, India, and Indonesia are most badly affected by the high inflation currently. These 3 markets are certainly underperformed the others as the worry of high inflation may hurt the economy recovery strength, thus most analysts are anticipated the governments may raise the interest rate in February or March. There are few notes taken:

The unbalance of economy recovery globally, where the emerging market are growing too fast, pushing all the properties & commodities resources flying sky high - Thanks to the hot money flowing in from US & EU countries.
The most unexpected bad weather - Causing the commodites especially the agriculture prices fly, and creating the high inflation.
Most comsumers consume 40% of their expenses in food & petrol- High food & petrol price may hurt the consumers spending desire.

Global worries

The uncertainty in US economy recovery - Having the risk of losing momentum - Still require the government stimulus package which is still on going.
The EU soverign debt issue - The worry and focus on PIIGS may impact the EU and global economies.

CNY Mood - Stay sideline & focus on CNY celebration
2011 CNY is just around the corner, which is in another 1.5 weeks to go, most investors or retailers are taking profit and withdraw it for CNY preparation. This is quite normal as most people would not wish to stay worry while celebration CNY. Furthermore, most of the stocks in Malaysia & globally have been experienced quite a fruitful bull run in 1H Jan 2011. People can just easily collect the minimum of 10-30% profit and back for CNY holidays! Subsequently, the overall market may enter into a quiet trading season again through out the CNY period, thus I strongly recommended just let's go for the CNY celebration & wish everyones has a prosperoous year ahead! Happy Chinese New Year!

Facebook group created

2011-01-17T17:22:00.002+08:00

Further to some of the request from friends and those whom are following my blog, and with the objective of convenience to everyone. I have created a Facebook group - Achieving Financial Freedom Through Financial Investment at alexwinvest@groups.facebook.com. Those whom are interested to be a member of the group please feel free to join and hope this would bring us a step closer to each others to able to enjoy the process of achieving our financial freedom the soonest together, and the most important is wishing all of us living our life to the fullest and open up for the POSSIBILITIES! With the Strong BELIEF and IRON WILL, we shall be able to DO IT and GET IT DONE! Cheers!

Stock Investment Portfolio Review, Outlook & Strategy - 14012011

2011-01-16T11:26:00.009+08:00

Faber - Unfavorable News

Faber shocked the investors through the news of non-renewal of its two existing contracts in Abu Dhabi worth RM129mil and RM55 mil respectively. This may subsequently dampen the stock performance and create the uncertainty of its future's perspective. Most analysts have downgraded the "Buy" call to "Hold" position and lower the 12-month target price to around RM2.60. Further to this, I have decided to kick this stock out from my Favourite Stocks List.

Top Picks within Favourite Stocks List

1. TWS

With the strong growth of Revenue & Profit achieved in the last quarters, it is forecasted to achieve an EPS of above RM1.20 in the total of last 4-quarter result. It has just surprised the investors with the generous dividend of 20% announced on 14th Jan 2011. TWS is trading at attractive price at RM7.64 as dated 14 Jan 2011 at PE of around 6.0 only. Thus, TWS is the best strong buy call counter at this moment and I project it may easily break RM10.00 in 1Q2011 or early 2Q2011.

2. KimLun & Cypark
Both of these stocks are considered the new players among the listed companies. The same characteristics between these companies are they have good management team and stand in an advantage position to be benefited directly from the government Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) such as environmental friendly and MRT projects which have just announced recently.

3. Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBBank
With the combination of several factors like stable economy growth, increase of interest rate prospect, aggressive business acquisition and investment abroad among the finance industry, and together with a large amount of money spend by the government in 10MP, the Banking playsers are definitely one of the main beneficiary.

4. Sapcres, Kencana, Dialog, Pchem, PetDag
Oil & gas sector is one of the main beneficiary which has attracted the government focus. It is anticipated that a lot of giant projects will be tendered out and began in the near future.

Overall Market Outlook
The KLCI stock market looks attractive at the current 1570 level and most analysts and investors are confident with the market performance and have revised 2011 target at 1700 level. Nevertheless, it is very much depends on the global economy recovery too. I would anticipate the global market may continue to recover and the global equity bull run would at least continue the uptrend until the end of 1st half 2011, then follow by a more severe type of retracement in the beginning of 2nd half 2011.

Trading strategy
Sell into Strength, Buy on weakness.

Favourite Stocks Recommendations
Finance: Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBBank.
Consumer: CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS, QL,
Construction: Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.
Healthcare: KPJ.
Plantation: BStead, TDM, THPlant, TWSPlant, TSH.
Trading/services: Analabs, Kfima, QSR.
Gaming: Genting.
Telecommunication: Axiata, Digi.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem, PETDag.
Industrial: Ajiya, CanOne, DRBhicom, Daibochi, HPI, LIONind.

HapSeng - "Burst" of the rumours / over speculated

2011-01-12T21:41:00.004+08:00

Chart: Hap Seng daily chart (Source: tradeSignum)

Background

Hap Seng Consolidated Berhad is an investment holding company, through its subsidiaries, operates oil palm and cocoa plantations, trade heavy equipment and motor vehicles, fabricates and sells commercial trailers and tankers, provides leasing and money lending, and manufactures agricultural fertilizers, agro-chemicals. building materials, and plantation suppliers.

Recent stock movement and news

The company is financially strong with the business model and business perspective. The stock has been in a super bull run since Oct 2010 began with the price at around RM3.00 and consistently moving up till last week high of RM7.52. The main support of the uptrend was mainly due to the rumours of privatisation news which has succesfully created the excitement within the retailers. However, the company has announced a bonus and rights issue, and private placementof shares on last friday in order to collect about RM1.2bil fund for the business expansion purpose. This subsequently diluted the possibility of the privatisation case, and disappointed the shareholders immediately. It means that the shareholder has to pay extra money to subscribe the right issue in order to benefit from the whole bonus issue exercise, thus some of the shareholders have chosen to sell and take profit before the ex-date of the bonus issue so that they can avoid to pay extra money for the investment.

Comments on Hap Seng Stock Movement

The stock super bull uptrend was not really supported by the strong growth of the business revenue and profit generated in the past quarters.
The stock has shot up from RM3.00 to RM7.52 which is more than 100% in 3months time, without any major pull back or profit taking activity kicks in. The "Bull" may has exhausted after strong and long run.
The stock may trade in over value condition as the growth in stock price has way overrun the business growth.
The stock has been trading in the overbought zone in RSI data since Oct 2010 without easing off, a stock is not possible to continue staying in the overbought zone forever, thus, it has been in the very unhealthy condition.
The stock is over manipulated as it is not fundamentally sound anymore, it would be healthy to have some short term retreatment.

Conclusion
Hap Seng Bonus issue has way disappointed the investors as the privatisation case might not be happening in the near future anymore. Most investors have made handsome profit in Hap Seng, thus many of them still willing to sell and cut profit at current level, creating more heavy selling activity happening now.

Learning Curve
If a stock behave abnormally and price has changed directly suddenly and retreat more severe compare to normal condition, while majority of other stocks are still holding well or doing good. It shows that the stock is sending the message to the investors that "I AM SICK, PLEASE AWAY FROM ME!". In Hap Seng case, the smarter investors would have cut the profit on 10/1/11 or latest 11/1/11 just before it is too late!

KLCI Market Review, Outlook & strategy - 08012011

2011-01-08T19:10:00.007+08:00

Chart: KLCI Chart (Source: tradeSignum.com)

Fundamental Commentary

The KLCI index was succesfully breaking several resistances at 1530 & 1550 levels with the buying supports from local institutions & foreign investors. The daily trading volume has increased from a daily average 1.0bil to 2.5bil with a lot of buying focus on the bluechips like finance, construction, plantation, property, oil & gas sectors. This shows the high confidence of foreign & local institutions towards global economy as well as Malaysia's. The KLCI index is trading at an attractive level and most analysts have upgraded 2011 year end target to 1700.

Technical Commentary

The KLCI index continued flying after successfully broken-out the upper line of "Symmetrical Triangle" as anticipated. It hit 1575 level before some minor profit taking activity kicks in. The KLCI uptrend was supported by huge trading volume of 2.5bil. Due to the strong run last week, the market may fall into consolidation mode with a little down trend in the coming week. Anyhow, the KLCI is still in a good uptrend mode as long as it stays above the long term uptrend line.

Technical Indicators
MACD: Bullish (Golden-cross signal).
KLCI above 50MA, 100MA & 200MA level: Bullish.
RSI stays at 80 level: Bullish, a little overbought.

Support level
1550, 1530, 1524.

Resistance level
1580, 1600.

Trading Strategy
Take profit & cutting down stock holding level to 30% stocks vs 70% cash. Stay sideline, Sell into Strength, Bargain hunting on good fundamental stocks when market dips again.

Favourite Stocks Recommendations
Finance: Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBB.
Consumer: CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS, QL,
Construction: Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.
Healthcare: KPJ, Faber.
Plantation: BStead, TDM, THPlant, TWSPlant, TSH.
Trading/services: Analabs, Kfima, QSR.
Gaming: Genting.
Telecommunication: Axiata, Digi.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem, PETDag.
Industrial: Ajiya, CanOne, DRBhicom, Daibochi, HPI, LIONind.

Bonus & Free Warrant issue ex-date in early Feb 2011

2011-01-08T18:56:00.003+08:00

Chart: GuanChg Daily Chart (Source: TradeSignum)

Further push towards Bonus issue
With the Bonus & Free Warrant issue's ex-date fixed and to be carried out on 10th Feb 2011, the stock is anticipated to attract more buyers to bargain before the Bonus issue ex-date. The investors will be benefited from the free warrant issue directly.

Conclusion
It is still a strong buy call and it would be smarter to buy on dips.

KLCI 2011 Market Outlook & Strategy - "Perfect Super Bull Cycle"

2011-01-01T12:35:00.019+08:00

Chart1: KLCI Chart (Source: StockCharts.com)

Chart2: KLCI Chart (Source: StockCharts.com)

Chart3: KLCI Chart (Source: StockCharts.com)

Fundamental Commentary
The KLCI index was trading in a tight range between 1480 to 1530 level in Dec 2010 as anticipated. The market volume has reduced to below 1.0bil due to the year end holiday mood and early book closing by most of the fund managers. Most analysts feel more optimistic and confident with the current economy situation, and have upgraded the market outlook for the 1st half 2011. This was resulted by the convincing economic results improvement in global markets especially in US.

Technical Commentary
The KLCI index has successfully broken-out the upper line of "Symmetrical Triangle". This provides a near term bullish signal to the near term market outlook. Nevertheless, it is importance for the KLCI index to break the strong resistance at 1530 level in order to continue the market rally in year 2011. The bullish market outlook is maintained as long as the KLCI stays above the strong support at 1480 level.

Technical Indicators
Candlestick chart pattern 1: Bearish Engulfing pattern builded on 30th Dec 2010.

Candlestick chart pattern 2: Bullish - Top "Symmetrical Triangle" line brokeout.

MACD: Bullish (Golden-cross signal).
KLCI above 50MA, 100MA & 200MA level: Bullish.
RSI stays at 50 level: Neutral.

Support level

1520, 1500, 1480.

Resistance level

1530, 1550.

Near Term Outlook (1st - Half 2011)
With the current bullish news that the global economy recovery is gaining momentum as well as the improvement in consumer confidence, the global markets shall continue the Super Bull run in the 1st & 2nd quarter 2011. The global countries governments will definitely work harder to ensure the economy recovery is on path. Thus, the near-term outlook for the stock markets are fairly bullish. The undervalue mid-cap to small-cap may again outperform the index link counters in near term.

Long Term Outlook (2nd-Half 2011)
With the expiration of $600bil stimulus package in June 2011 which was implemented in US last year, the sustainability of economy recovery will be tested & it would be a huge challenge for it to move forward then. Apart from that, the emerging markets will also face the challenge to calm down the overheated economic situation and high inflation issue in 2011. Subsequently, they have to raise the interest rates to tackle the high inflation issue. This may also impact the stock market performance directly.

Besides, the EU sovereign debt problem, war threat & political tension between North Korea & South Korea, china economy softening, and emerging properties bubble issues may continue ruin the global economy recovery in the 2nd half 2011. The equity and commodities markets are anticipated revert into bear market due to the softening economy recovery in 2nd half 2011. Thus, it would be a safe & smart decision to clear all the stock holding position or probably just holding the mininum position before entering in 2nd half 2011.

Potential Positive/Bullish News & Incidents

Malaysia General Election in 1st-Half 2011.
Huge Infrastructure development project like "MRT" worth RM35bil to start construction in July 2011.
Continuation of further positive 6% yearly GDP growth.
Maintaining Low interest rate to support economy growth.
High commodities prices benefit Oil & gas, metals and plantation industries.
US $600bil stimulus package expiration in June 2011 continue creating in-flow money to Equity & Property markets.
Further strengthening of global economy recovery especially in US & EU.

Risks

Failure of sustaining positive quarterly GDP growth may leads economy fall into "Double Recession".
Expiration of US $600bil stimulus package in June 2011, challenge for the self-sustaining global economy.
Hot money out-flow from emerging markets back to US & EU to impact the equity & property markets.
Increase of Interest rate to curb Inflation issue may also impact the economy.
Potential of property bubble burst in Asian markets especially in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore.
EU sovereign debt issue may continue ruin the market sentiment.
War threat & political tension between North Korea & South Korea.
Potentially ending of a Super bull market due to the long run and overprice condition.

Trading Strategy
1st-Half 2011: Bargain hunting on good fundamental stocks into market weakness.

2nd-Half 2011: Clear/Hold minimum stock position.

Favourite Stocks Recommendations

Finance: Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBB.

Consumer: CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS, QL,

Construction: Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.

Healthcare: KPJ, Faber.

Plantation: BStead, TDM, THPlant, TWSPlant, TSH.

Trading/services: Analabs, Kfima, QSR.

Gaming: Genting.

Telecommunication: Axiata, Digi.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem, PETDag.
Industrial: Ajiya, CanOne, DRBhicom, Daibochi, Scientx, HPI, LIONind.

Keck Seng - In Strong Cash Flow & Financial Position, Slow & Steady Uptrend

2010-12-26T13:53:00.008+08:00

Chart: KSeng daily chart (Source: tradeSignum)

Fundamental Review & Outlook

Keck Seng is involved in the cultivation of oil palm, Cocoa, processing and marketing of refined palm oil products, housing development, property investment and investment holding. The main factor for the recent huge income growth was due to the share disposal of its entire shareholdings of 35.58m shares in Parkway Holdings Ltd with a gain of RM260.14m. KSeng has became one of the Cash Rich company with the one-time gain income. KSeng is maintaining a slow but steady growth in the last few quarters. The company's 1-for-2 bonus issue plan is anticipated to be completed in the 1st quarter 2011.

Technical Review & Outlook

KSeng is in a steady uptrend with the supports of bullish technical data. The stock hit the record high last week with low volume transacted. It looks a bit tired and needs more convincing news to push the price higher. Otherwise, it may fall into consolidation mode and may have a pause in the bull run. The current bullish news are high CPO price, bonus issue plan, and healthy financial position.

Technical Indicators

Volume: Stock price needs further buying support to breakthough RM6.80 main resistance.
MACD: Bullish, after golden cross being constructed in early Dec 2010.

RSI: Bullish, hovering at 70 level.

EMA50, 100, 200: Bullish, as long as it stays above all these lines.

Bollinger Bands: Bullish, above mid-line.

Support level

RM6.50, RM6.25.

Resistance level

RM6.80

Risk

1. Slow down in revenue and profit due to the disposal of healthcare business.

2. Commodities prices like CPO retreated with global demand reduce and higher productivity in 2H 2011.

Near-term outlook (30-90days)

Consolidation mode after sharp gain last week.

Long-term outlook (6-12months)

Bullish, in long term uptrend, buy on weakness

Trading opportunity

Due to strong gain during the last few trading sessions, stock may falls into consolidation mode, buy on support levels.

Guan Chong - Huge Growth Potential with Production Capacity Expansion Plan in Place for the Next 3 years

2010-12-26T00:25:00.009+08:00

Chart: Guanchg daily chart (Source: tradeSignum)

Fundamental Outlook
Guan Chong is currently one of the top 10 Cocoa-derived food ingredient maker in the world. The production plant in Johor has reached the maximum production capacity 80,000 tonnes yearly. It is investing RM80mil to setup a plant in Indonesia with a starting production at around 60,000 tonnes yearly in the 1st quarter 2011, with the potential annual capacity to reach 180,000 tonnes within the next 2 years. For the 9 months ended Sept 2010, the company revenue soared to RM836mil from RM425mil in the same period earlier while net profit jumped 6-fold to RM57mil against RM8mil previously. The company's 1-for-3 bonus issue and 5-year warrants 1-for-4 proposal has been approved during the EGM last week. The bonus issue plan is anticipated to be completed in the 1st quarter 2011.

Technical Outlook
After 2 months consolidation, GuanChg tried to test the previous high RM2.00 last week accompanied by huge volume transacted. However, stock price retreated as volume decreasing with less buying activity support. Price will only able to move up and break the main resistance RM2.00 with more volume support, otherwise it may stay in consolidation mode longer.

Technical Indicators
Volume: stock price needs further buying support to breakthough RM2.00 main resistance.
MACD: Bullish signal after golden cross being constructed last week.
RSI: Bullish signal.

Support level
RM1.80.

Resistance level
RM2.00

Risk
1. High-debt position after aggressive business acquisition and expansion plan implemented. However, it is informed that it is still under managable level as still level of debt ratio is normal in the industry.
2. Global consumer spending uncertainty.
3. Commodities prices like Cocoa increase may dilute profit margin.

Near term outlook
Consolidation mode

Long term outlook Bullish
Long term uptrend, buy on weakness

Trading opportunity
Due to strong gain during the last few trading sessions, stock falls into consolidation mode, it is good bargain hunting opportunity during profit taking.

KLCI Market Review and Outlook Commentary - 19122010

2010-12-19T16:11:00.008+08:00

KLCI Daily Chart (Source: TradeSignum)

Fundamental outlook

Refer to KLCI Daily Chart shown above, the KLCI index was moving in a tight range and profit taking activity kicked in as anticipated. The market movement was accompanied with low volume transacted due to the year end holiday mood and most of the fund managers had closed the books to log in the huge profit gained in year 2010. The KLCI has broken the 1st support level 1500 and closed at 1499 level on 17th Dec 2010, while the market volume was hovering between 1.0bil level with less excitement anticipated. The market outlook for the coming weeks will be about the same and should maintain until the last trading day on 31st Dec 2010.

Technical Outlook
As long as the KLCI stays above the long term bullish support line, the uptrend is still intact and the super bull run in year 2011 is highly anticipated.

Technical Indicators
KLCI broke 50MA: Bearish.

KLCI above 100MA & 200MA level: Bullish.
MACD (12,26) dead-cross: Bearish.

RSI stays at 50 level: Neutral.

Support level

1,480, 1460, 1440.

Resistance level

1,500, 1524, 1531.

Near Term Outlook (30-days)
KLCI less excitement with less activity happening due to the holiday season in Dec 2010, most of the fund managers may already closing the account books earlier thanks to the huge capital gain in year 2010 bull run. Bluechips may not fluctuate much from current level, but undervalue mid-cap to small-cap may outperform the index link counters in near term.

Long Term Outlook (6-months)
With the improvement of global economy sentiment especially in US USD858bil tax rebate 2-years extention, Increase of Germany consumer confidence, delay of interest rate increase in China, as well as higher potential growth in emerging markets especially in Asian region. Thus, the equity and commodities markets are anticipated to be outperform the other investment like bond market.

Trading opportunity

Bargain hunting on good fundamental stocks on weakness.

Favourite stocks recommendations

Finance - Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBB.

Consumer - Asia File, CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS.

Construction - Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.

Healthcare - KPJ, Faber.

Plantation - BStead, TDM, MHC, Cepat.

Trading/services - Kfima.

Gaming - Genting.

Telecommunication: Axiata.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem.
Industrial: DRBhicom, Daibochi, Scientx.

TWS in Super Bull Run!

2010-12-17T13:30:00.004+08:00

TWS Daily Chart (Source: TradeSignum)

TWS Daily movement analysis

As discussed earlier, TWS has broken the main resistance and entered into Super Bull Run! The breakout was mainly due to the strong quarterly result announcement, subsequently entered into strong uptrend with the support of buying interest created among investors. It has increased from RM4.00 to RM6.00 traded as on 17th Dec 2010. With the impressive of 50% gain achieved in 2 weeks time. The question now is does TWS going to hit the ceiling or continue flying sky high? Technically, there are many ways to predict the stock direction ahead. The fairly basic one which I feel is also one of the most effective tool is by using the "Daily Trading Volume Analysis" method.

TWS Daily Trading Volume analysis
Refer to TWS Daily Trading Volume table above, noted that eversince the Bull run triggered in early Dec 2010. The trading volume has shotted up from an average daily trading volume of less than 5,000lots to the highest of 34,000lots achieved on 3rd Dec 2010 (Please find details of trading volume on the Website). It followed by a minor and quick profit taking activity which is also called the filtration process to clean up the weaker/less confidence traders, and the process has to be accompanied with a "reducing daily trading volume" - which can only being rectified as "Healthy Filtration Process". The daily trading volume is slowly reducing from the top of 34,000lots to around 15,000lots, and subsequently reducing to around 5,000lots on 16th Dec 2010. Nevertheless, the very positive sign is the stock price is not only able to holding so well but still able to continue moving up with lower volume supported. It means that this stock is sending a very positive signal to the trader showing that it can easily assorb all the selling pressure with little trading volume transacted. So, since the stock is "telling" the trader clearly that it is stronger than everyone's thought, and is ready to continue flying high!

Conclusion

Due to the impressive financial results achieved and attractive valuation, as well as strong technical indicator supported. It is definitely a STRONG BUY CALL!

2010 Year End Window Dressing Kick Off??

2010-12-13T20:39:00.004+08:00

KLCI Daily Chart (Source: TradeSignum)

Commentary

Refer to KLCI Daily Chart shown above, it has successfully builded a base at the low of 1474 level during the profit taking acitivity occured 2 weeks ago. It rebounded and moved all the way up to 1521 level last week, follow by another round of profit taking activity which has pulled the KLCI down to 1508 level. The market volume has soften from the peak of 1.5bil to around 1.0bil level with less excitement anticipated due to the year end holiday mood in Dec 2010.

Technical Indicators

KLCI stays above 50MA & 200MA level: Bullish.
MACD (12,26) golden-cross: Bullish.
RSI stays at 50 level: Neutral.

Support level
1,500.

Resistance level
1,530.

Near Term Outlook (30-days)

KLCI less excited with less activity happening due to the holiday season in Dec 2010, most of the fund managers may decide to close the account book earlier thanks to the huge capital gain in year 2010 bull run. Bluechips may not fluctuate much from current level, but undervalue mid-cap to small-cap may outperform the index link counters in near term.

Long Term Outlook (6-months)

With the improvement of global economy sentiment especially in US & Europe, and huge potential growth in Asian region especially in emerging markets, overall sounds convincing and it is good opportunity for equity and commodities markets in year 2011 ahead. Technically, as long as the KLCI stays above the long term bullish support line, the uptrend still intact and the super bull run in year 2011 is highly anticipated.

Trading opportunity
Bargain hunting on good fundamental stocks on weakness.

Favourite stocks recommendations
Finance - Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBB.
Consumer - Asia File, CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS.
Construction - Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.
Healthcare - KPJ, Faber.
Plantation - BStead, TDM, MHC, Cepat.
Trading/services - Kfima.
Gaming - Genting.
Telecommunication: Axiata.

Environmental: Cypark.

Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem.

Industrial: DRBhicom, Daibochi.

Pimco Raises US Growth Forecast After Tax Deal

2010-12-10T17:02:00.002+08:00

Published: Friday, 10 Dec 2010 3:13 AM ET

Pacific Investment Management Co, manager of the world's largest bond fund, raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy to between 3 percent and 3.5 percent for 2011 from its earlier estimate of 2 percent to 2.5 percent, Chief Executive Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC late Thursday.

The more positive outlook was influenced by measures put in place to stimulate the economy such as the compromise to extend Bush-era tax cuts for another two years, but further stimulus measures would be needed to keep the growth going, El-Erian said.

"Maintaining such a growth rate beyond 2011 requires additional measures to enhance competitiveness and achieve medium-term fiscal consolidation," he wrote to CNBC.

Pimco sees the economy growing 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the same period of this year.

"We revised this week our outlook for U.S. growth in 2011 taking into account Monday's announcement on additional fiscal stimulus measures," El-Erian said in an interview with Reuters.

El-Erian also shares the co-chief investment title with Bill Gross, who runs the $256 billion Pimco Total Return Fund.

"It is far from certain at this point that 2011's higher growth projection will translate into a significant improvement in the growth outlook for the period beyond next year," he added.

Obama on Monday unveiled a compromise deal to extend all Bush-era tax cuts for two years, giving ground to emboldened Republicans who won big in last month's congressional elections.

Many economists also raised their U.S. gross domestic product forecasts after the tax deal struck by Obama, which included a surprise reduction in payroll taxes for 2011.

(Source: CNBC.com)

Tax Compromise is Gift to Markets as Traders Await Santa Rally

2010-12-07T13:06:00.002+08:00

Published: Monday, 6 Dec 2010 10:12 PM ET

The proposed extension of Bush era tax cuts is another gift to markets and makes a year-end Santa rally even more likely.

President Obama Monday said he would support a tentative compromise to keep in place all Bush tax cuts for two years, as well as extend unemployment benefits for 13 months. The White House also added a reduction in the Social Security tax for workers to 4.2 percent from 6.2 percent for a one-year period.

Traders and analysts, for weeks, have been predicting an extension of all of the tax cuts, including those that keep capital gains and dividend taxes at a maximum 15 percent.

However, if those tax cuts and taxes for the wealthy were not to be extended, as proposed by some Democrats, traders had expected to see stock market selling. They also had been expecting a relief rally once a deal was announced. The deal still needs approval of Congressional Democrats.

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said he thinks any relief rally will be limited. "It's all in the market. It was as expected. Anything less would have been bad."

"I think, more than anything, the certainty and tax predictability will help business job creation and the economy," Paulsen said.

U.S. stock futures turned slightly positive Monday evening, after President Obama announced the tax deal at about 6:30 p.m. New York time. The Dow Monday had ended down 19 at 11,362, and the Nasdaq was up 3 at 2594. The S&P 500 fell 1 to 1223.

(Kindly click on the Title to link to CNBC news for more, Source: CNBC)

Obama Unveils Broad Accord To Extend All Bush Tax Cuts

2010-12-07T08:38:00.004+08:00

As the road to global economy recovery from one of the greatest financial crisis in 2008 is tough and uneasy, it can be certain that most of the governments are committing to work harder for the best solutions to stimulate and grow the economy, without fail. Should there be any economy growth soften detected, there will be a better solution to encounter the matter. Generally, an "effective Tax Cut" is one of the common methods implemented broadly.

President Obama announced a broad "framework" agreement with Republicans that would extend all Bush-era tax cuts for two years, keep the dividend and capital gains tax at 15 percent and temporarily cut payroll and Social Security taxes.

Democrats, however, are resisting the deal and will meet Tuesday to discuss the plan. Earlier Monday, there were reports that a deal was "all but done."

Some key elements of the Obama/GOP deal include:

Two-year extension of all Bush tax cuts
Dividends and payroll tax would remain at 15 percent
A 13-month extension of unemployment benefits
A two percentage point cut in the payroll tax for one year.
A one-year cut in Social Security taxes
An estate tax at 35 percent with a $5 million exemption, proposed by Republicans.

The overall cost in lost revenue to the government is at least $450 billion in 2011 and could climb as high as $600 billion depending on how much the economy grows over the next two years.

Speaking at the White House, Obama said there were elements of the deal he personally opposed, including an extension of expiring income tax cuts at upper income levels and a more generous deal on estates.

But he said he decided that an agreement with Republicans was more important that a stalemate that would have resulted in higher income taxes at all income levels on Jan. 1.

"Make no mistake, allowing taxes to go up on all Americans would have raised taxes by $3,000 for a typical American family and that could cost our economy well over a million jobs," he said.

(Kindly click on the Title to link to CNBC news for more, Source: CNBC)

Goldman Sachs 2011 Forecast: Stocks, Gold, Oil Higher

2010-12-07T08:25:00.002+08:00

Published: Monday, 6 Dec 2010 11:33 AM ET Text Size By: Bertha Coombs

Goldman Sachs is bullish on the U.S. economy for 2011, and forecasts U.S. stocks will see their third straight year of gains.

The investment banking powerhouse sees the S&P 500 [.SPX 1223.12 -1.59 (-0.13%) ] gaining nearly 25 percent to a level of 1450 in the next 12 months, fueled by strong corporate profits, easy monetary policies and an improving U.S. economy.

Goldman [GS 162.65 0.34 (+0.21%) ] sees stocks gaining as the U.S. economic growth accelerating from 2.5 to 4 percent by the end of 2012, but says investors will continue to have doubt. (Watch comments by Goldman's Chief U.S. Investment Strategist David Kostin in the video clip later in this story.)

“Despite these many positives, the equity investing landscape is hard to decipher,” Goldman’s U.S. investment strategy team writes in its 2011 U.S. equity forecast, which is headlined “Easy Money, Hard Market.”

Investors remain understandably skeptical about positive economic data, Goldman says, because the improvement is coming from a fairly low base. But the strategists argue with strong corporate balance sheets, low inflation and interest rates that “the path of earnings growth has rarely been smoother.”

Goldman is recommending its clients increase their investments in cyclical sectors. It continues to overweight technology, and has raised its outlook on energy and financials to overweight from neutral.

Goldman also recommends investors underweight defensive sectors like health care, consumer staples and utilities.

Long U.S. Bank Stocks

Goldman’s global investment team rates U.S. Large Cap Commercial Banks among its "Top Trades for 2011." The firm expects financial sector earnings to grow 24 percnet, with the economic recovery leading to improving loan demands and credit trends for the big banks. It also believes the large cap banks will get back to paying dividends in 2011.

The firm recommends clients gain exposure to the sector through the KBW Bank Index [BKX 47.85 -0.18 (-0.37%) ] or SPDR ETF based on the index [KBE 23.78 -0.11 (-0.46%) ].

Commodities: Gold, Oil Higher in 2011

Goldman believes low U.S. interest rates will continue to underpin the rally in commodities like gold. The firm expects the precious metal futures to climb to $1,690 an ounce by the end of 2011 and continue to move higher.

But the firm believes prices will likely peak at $1,750 an ounce in 2012, as the U.S. recovery will see interest rates move higher.

Goldman’s commodities strategists also see oil futures rising to $105 dollars a barrel in 2011, and demand improving along with the U.S. economy. The firm notes, “Energy is historically the best performing sector when the ISM is above 50, which seems increasingly likely given strong October ISM and our US economists upgrade to their 2011 growth outlook.”

Currencies: Top Trade, Bad Call

Among the risks Goldman sees for 2011 is moderating growth in China, as Beijing tries to reign in inflation.

While its economic teams saw the improvement in U.S. growth lagging emerging markets in 2010, Goldman strategists believe the trend has reversed over the last six months, “with our US economics team now more constructive on domestic growth, but our China economists expecting monetary tightening through increases in interest rates and reserve requirements over the next three to six months.”

One of the firm’s top trades for 2011 involves shorting the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange. The firm argues low rates in the U.S. will keep the dollar lower, while China will have to let its currency rise next year, as it undertakes policies to control growth. “Rising external political pressure on the CNY from the US and other countries, as well as the threat of escalating trade tensions, expose China’s dependence on exports. More gradual CNY appreciation would help alleviate these tensions.”

While most of Goldman’s 2010 predictions on the U.S. stock market, commodities prices and economic growth have generally proven right on the money, its crystal ball was much more cloudy when it came to some key currency calls.

One of Goldman’s top trades for 2010 proved a big loser. The firm’s currency strategists recommended shorting the New Zealand dollar and going long the British pound, saying at the time, “We are more bullish on Sterling, linked to a stronger cyclical momentum in response to a large easing in financial conditions.”

But the Kiwi has been strong performer this year on the strength of the country’s rising commodity prices. The analyst who made that call reportedly apologized to clients in a recent note, saying it may have results in losses of more 12 percent.

(Source: CNBC)

Bernanke Says Fed May Take More Action to Curb Joblessness

2010-12-06T10:51:00.003+08:00

By Joshua Zumbrun - Dec 6, 2010 10:12 AM GMT+0800

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said U.S. unemployment may take five years to fall to a normal level and that Fed purchases of Treasury securities beyond the $600 billion announced last month are possible.

“At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate” of about 5 percent to 6 percent, Bernanke said according to a transcript of an interview airing today on CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program. The purchase of more bonds than planned is “certainly possible,” said Bernanke, 56. “It depends on the efficacy of the program” and the outlook for inflation and the economy.

Bernanke and other Fed officials have defended the central bank’s announcement that it will purchase $75 billion in Treasury securities a month through June to prop up a recovery so weak that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate last month rose to 9.8 percent, the highest level since April, the Labor Department said on Dec. 3, three days after the Bernanke interview.

The economy, which grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter, is so weak that Bernanke said growth could fizzle out without support. “It’s very close to the border,” he said. “It takes about 2.5 percent growth just to keep unemployment stable and that’s about what we’re getting. We’re not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining.”

(Source: Bloomberg)

TWS vs HapSeng Super Bull Run - Similarities

2010-12-04T21:49:00.006+08:00

HapSeng Daily chart (Source: TradeSignum)

TWS Daily chart (Source: TradeSignum)

Similarities in Technical Perspective:

Both stocks have gone through long consolidation before a strong break up.
The strong break up was accompanied by high volume.
Staying above 50 & 200MA daily moving average lines.
In super bull trend.

Similarities in Fundamental Perspective:

Steady and strong growth in recent financial results such as revenue, profit before tax, and net profit income.
More than 20% or double digit growth in EPS (q-to-q).
More than 20% or double digit growth in ROE (y-to-y).
Steady Dividend payout ratio.

Conclusion:
Due to the impressive financial results achieved by these 2 companies, they are definitely in a very undemanding valuation, the hardly find hidden jewels in the stock market at the current market situation.

Strategy:
Strong buy.

Prudent monetary policy by China

2010-12-04T11:29:00.000+08:00

BEIJING: China will switch to a prudent monetary policy from a moderately loose stance, the Communist Party's top leaders decided yesterday, a change that could pave the way for more interest rate increases and lending controls.

At the same time, the Politburo elected to maintain China's proactive fiscal policy, an indication that the government wants to continue to ramp up investment spending even while taking tightening steps to control inflation.

Chinese and global markets were little affected, with investors taking the view that the new wording was an affirmation of the gradual tightening that Beijing has already started to implement in recent months.

But while the change in description of policy had been discussed for several weeks by central bank advisers, the Politburo's endorsement, reported by the official Xinhua news agency, could still mark a decisive turning point.

It means that all sort of monetary policy tools to control liquidity and to control inflation can now be used, said Ken Peng, an economist with Citigroup in Beijing.

In the past, we've been clearly focusing on administrative measures. Going forward, we could be using more price adjustments via interest rates, he said, adding that he expected five rate increases by the end of next year.

China has raised interest rates just once this year as it has guided its monetary policy back to normal from the ultra-loose settings it adopted to counter the global financial crisis. Instead, it has used quantitative tools to do the heavy work, officially raising banks' reserve requirements five times.

Along with playing a role in the fight against inflation, policy tightening also signals confidence that the world's second-largest economy is on solid ground, even as the United States and European recoveries remain fragile. - Reuters

(Source: www.thestar.com.my)

Fed's Bailout Report Shows Financial Crisis Is Over: Bove

2010-12-03T21:56:00.002+08:00

Published: Thursday, 2 Dec 2010 12:02 PM ET
By: Jeff CoxCNBC.com Staff Writer

The Federal Reserve's report this week on its $3.3 trillion bailout of the global banking system shows that the financial crisis is finally over, banking analyst Dick Bove said.

While the information on who borrowed from the US central bank contained surprises—such as the extent to which European banks had access to the money and that Goldman Sachs was "significantly weaker than anyone knew"—the overview is that the bailout helped save the system, said Bove, of Rochdale Securities.

"The biggest point that one should derive from this information, because what has been revealed now is ancient history, is that the only entity that needs this money any longer is the United States government," he said in a research note to clients entitled "Financial Crisis Is Over."

The various entities involved with the bailouts, including the Fed, the Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, have been alternately praised and criticized for the trillions in aid they provided to companies as diverse as investment banker Morgan Stanley and motorcycle giant Harley-Davidson.

At issue in most of the arguments was the urgency to provide the funds.
Companies around the world came under duress as the real estate market collapsed, taking with it the trillions in securities used to underwrite the housing boom and particularly subprime mortgages provided to less-than-qualified buyers.

"After some experimentation, the moves taken by these agencies were extraordinarily successful," Bove wrote. "They stopped a run on American (and European) banking companies and earned what may be $60 billion in profits for the combined entities—a taxpayer windfall of unusually large dimensions."

Bove has been critical of some policy areas since the financial crisis hit—in particular he said the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill would hammer the industry, and he recently signed a petition from leaders in the financial community asking the Fed to back off its new round of $600 billion in Treasury purchases under its quantitative easing program.

But he also has called the Troubled Asset Relief Program the "most successful US program ever," a stance he reiterated in citing the successes of the plethora of alphabet-soup programs used to support companies during the bailout.

"The private sector programs have been wound down or eliminated," he said. "The Federal Reserve is back to its old game of funding U.S. Treasury debt. The private sector may now be certified as 'healthy.'"

(Source: CNBC)

Achieving Financial Freedom Through Financial Investment

台灣股神胡立陽：金錢遊戲結束了‧你將受苦10年

“最近，大家身體都很不舒服，台北很多人頭痛、眼痛，到醫院都檢查不出毛病，有人問我，究竟該去哪家醫院？結果，我告訴他只有一個醫生可以治療，那就是伯南克醫生……”

與時拼經．佈局下半年投資 馬股6月或重現生機

Case Study: Robert Kuok's Legend - PPB Group Bhd

CENSOF - The key software provider & support for government

Market is under healthy correction - Clear all holding position & stay sideline for next bargain chance

CNY Mood - Stay Sideline & Focus on CNY Celebration

Facebook group created

Stock Investment Portfolio Review, Outlook & Strategy - 14012011

HapSeng - "Burst" of the rumours / over speculated

KLCI Market Review, Outlook & strategy - 08012011

Bonus & Free Warrant issue ex-date in early Feb 2011

KLCI 2011 Market Outlook & Strategy - "Perfect Super Bull Cycle"

Keck Seng - In Strong Cash Flow & Financial Position, Slow & Steady Uptrend

Guan Chong - Huge Growth Potential with Production Capacity Expansion Plan in Place for the Next 3 years

KLCI Market Review and Outlook Commentary - 19122010

TWS in Super Bull Run!

2010 Year End Window Dressing Kick Off??

Pimco Raises US Growth Forecast After Tax Deal

Tax Compromise is Gift to Markets as Traders Await Santa Rally

Obama Unveils Broad Accord To Extend All Bush Tax Cuts

Goldman Sachs 2011 Forecast: Stocks, Gold, Oil Higher

Bernanke Says Fed May Take More Action to Curb Joblessness

TWS vs HapSeng Super Bull Run - Similarities

Prudent monetary policy by China

Fed's Bailout Report Shows Financial Crisis Is Over: Bove

與時拼經．佈局下半年投資馬股6月或重現生機