Adirondack Weather Site

Early PM Update

2012-02-29T13:59:00.000-05:00

It's snowing pretty good in the southern Dacks right now. Closing in on 2 inches here at my house. But you can see the dry punch developing over western New York. This first batch will slowly shear apart and there will be a period overnight when it won't be snowing much, even mixing with sleet and freezing rain before the second part of the snow event arrives Thursday morning.

As always, reports are appreciated and welcomed!

Darrin

Wednesday AM Update

2012-02-29T09:57:00.000-05:00

A band of snow has developed ahead of the main storm and I woke up to about an inch of fluff this morning. Not a bad way to start the day :)

The IR panel shows the storm structure nicely. Batch 1 looks tremendously impressive, but a lot of that moisture will slide to our south. The models seem to give us a nice shot of snow late today and early tonight as it goes by. There is always a danger this gets sheared apart and leaves us holding the bag.

After batch 1 moves by, there should be a period when it doesn't do much for at least a few hours overnight. That's when it could warm up enough aloft for some sleet and freezing rain to occur.

Then batch 2 should swing through on Thursday. Any leftover light mixed precipitation early would rapidly change back to snow as precipitation intensifies once again.

With a ESE-SE flow in the boundary layer, the heaviest snow amounts will occur over the south-central and eastern Adirondacks with the usual cold air damming scenario. The northwestern Adirondacks will lose out on some snow due to compressional heating and diminished precipitation.

Darrin

Storm Update, NOT!

2012-02-28T23:12:00.000-05:00

I just got back from a 190 mile epic snowmobile ride and wrote all about it on my other site. Too whipped to look into the weather tonight.

I'll sleep well tonight and tee it up in the morning. . .

Thanks all!

Darrin

Commenting

2012-02-28T09:09:00.001-05:00

The insulting rants of ONE particular individual have become a distraction on this board. From this point, I will review all comments before allowing them to be seen on the blog.

I understand this will be an inconvenience, but this step needed to be taken in order to maintain a professional, courteous and no bull blog for Adirondack weather.

I'll be back to talk about the mid-week storm tonight.

Appreciate your understanding,

Darrin

Putting the models aside just for a moment. . . .

2012-02-27T22:01:00.001-05:00

The storm for Wednesday/Thursday really hasn't spun up yet. Until it begins to develop and have some sort of real history, it wouldn't be smart to make a call on it yet. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

Darrin

Early look on mid-week storm and more....

2012-02-26T13:00:00.006-05:00

Panel 1 shows the 500mb set-up for the next potential snow event:

You can see a strong 2-closed contour 500mb low centered over lower Minnesota. The other key player is a strong confluent flow over Quebec. "Confluent" simply means that two wind streams are coming together. Where two air streams converge at 500mb, it generates sinking motion in the atmosphere and results in surface high pressure under the confluence. The presence of a Quebec high pressure cell is vitally important in locking in the cold air. Without the Quebec high, it's much easier for warm air to penetrate into the North Country and change the snow into mixed precipitation or even rain.

Moving on to Panel 2, you can see the 500mb low intact, but weakening slightly upon approach with only 1 closed contour.

This is usually a solid set-up for good snow events for the Adirondacks because the warm air doesn't have much chance of penetrating far enough north for a changeover to mixed precipitation. But the thing that could go wrong with this setup is that the confluent flow over Quebec could be strong enough to shear the approaching storm apart on its way here, resulting in the well known "fizzler" or "flopper." We'll have to see how the models handle the main players over the next couple of days to get a good fix on this one.

Looking ahead into March, it might get pretty interesting around here it you like an active, stormy pattern. The NAO+/AO+ pattern we've had most of the winter will still be in place to start the month:

But the interaction between the polar and subtropical jet streams may occur further south than what has occured most of the winter, resulting in a stormier pattern. The contrast between the bitter cold arctic regions and the warming lower lattitudes could supply the juice for several significant storms in March. That's not to say the storms will be all snow or even that March would be colder than average. This could be similar to the high risk/high reward pattern we had in March 2011 with major snow AND rain storms.

Yesterday's 00Z ECMWF showed a glimpe of what temperture contrast could be available for March:

And yes, it's also showing a potential mixed precipitation event for next weekend. We might have some fun to close out winter, after all.

Darrin

Widely variable snowfall totals for Northern New York and Vermont

2012-02-25T20:07:00.000-05:00

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CLINTON COUNTY...
   CADYVILLE              6.0  1108 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   2 E SCHUYLER FALLS     6.0   727 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   MOOERS                 5.0  1133 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   CHAMPLAIN              4.5   715 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   4 ESE PERU             4.3   600 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   WEST CHAZY             4.0   716 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   2 WNW PLATTSBURGH      4.0   720 PM  2/24  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MORRISONVILLE          3.3   724 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   3 S PLATTSBURGH 3 S    3.0  1200 PM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN     6.0  1130 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   3 S LAKE PLACID        6.0   341 PM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   3 W NEWCOMB            5.8   715 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   LEWIS                  4.5  1133 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   MORIAH                 4.0   754 AM  2/25  PUBLIC        

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   VERMONTVILLE          12.5   728 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   DUANE CENTER          12.0   726 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   ST. REGIS FALLS       12.0   722 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   ENE ONCHIOTA          10.0   830 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   6 SE WAWBEEK           9.0   338 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 SW MALONE            5.0   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   MOIRA                  4.5  1143 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  

...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
   1 N SHURTLEFF         15.0   335 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BRASHER FALLS          8.0  1143 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 SW STAR LAKE         8.0   344 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NORFOLK                7.5  1141 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   MADRID                 7.0  1140 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   CANTON                 6.0  1142 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   OGDENSBURG             6.0   727 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   EDWARDS                6.0   725 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   2 SW OGDENSBURG        4.5   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   SW HANNAWA FALLS       4.5   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS              

VERMONT

...ADDISON COUNTY...
   GRANVILLE              6.5   651 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   SOUTH LINCOLN          3.0   453 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ESE POTASH POINT     2.0   903 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 WNW ORWELL           2.0   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   SALISBURY              1.1   857 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
   4 N WALDEN             7.8   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   2 SW SUTTON            7.1   638 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   ENE HARDWICK           6.5   500 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   3 NNW SHEFFIELD        6.4   815 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   2 NE SUTTON            6.0   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   HARDWICK               5.9   929 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   LYNDONVILLE            5.5   330 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   4 WSW GROTON           4.4   600 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   ST JOHNSBURY           4.1   400 PM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER 

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
   3 NE UNDERHILL CENTE  14.0   455 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 SE WEST BOLTON      12.0   322 PM  2/25  BOLTON VALLEY 2000 FT   
   1 ENE NORTH UNDERHIL   8.0   635 PM  2/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   UNDERHILL              8.0  1226 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 ESE NASHVILLE        4.6   151 PM  2/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   JONESVILLE             4.5   125 PM  2/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 NW WILLISTON         3.6   630 AM  2/25  NWS EMPLOYEE
   1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO   3.0  1000 PM  2/24  NWS OFFICE              
   1 NNW JERICHO          2.8   715 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   2 SE SOUTH BURLINGTO   2.8   849 AM  2/25  NWS EMPLOYEE                    
   COLCHESTER             2.0   717 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   WILLISTON              2.0   821 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   1 NNE HUNTINGTON       1.6   800 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   3 SSE RICHMOND         1.5   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                 

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   1 ENE AVERILL          8.2   800 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 N ISLAND POND        6.0   933 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   GILMAN                 3.5   600 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   BAKERSFIELD           21.7   611 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   SHELDON SPRINGS       15.0   728 PM  2/25  AMATEUR RADIO           
   RICHFORD              10.8   226 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   FAIRFAX               10.0   637 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   4 S ST. ALBANS         6.0   800 AM  2/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   8 NNW FAIRFAX          5.8   715 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   1 WNW ENOSBURG FALLS   5.0   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   GEORGIA CENTER         3.0   903 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   ST. ALBANS             2.0   717 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  

...GRAND ISLE COUNTY...
   NORTH HERO             6.0  1148 PM  2/24  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   5 SSE ALBURGH          4.0   900 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
   2 SSE BELVIDERE JUNC  24.0   732 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BELVIDERE CENTER      24.0   459 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 S EDEN              18.3   443 PM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 SSE SMUGGLERS NOTC  18.0   327 PM  2/25  STOWE RESORT 1500 FEET  
   1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE  17.0   658 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 NW STOWE            17.0   722 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 WNW SOUTH CAMBRIDG  16.0   720 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   2 SE SOUTH CAMBRIDGE  16.0   322 PM  2/25  SMUGGLERS NOTCH 1200 FT 
   1 ESE PLEASANT VALLE  16.0   643 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   JEFFERSONVILLE        14.0   719 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   MOUNT MANSFIELD       14.0   400 PM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   5 N JEFFERSONVILLE    14.0  1130 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   WATERVILLE            12.0   349 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MORRISVILLE           10.5   425 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 S MOSCOW            10.0  1218 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CAMBRIDGE              8.0   315 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   JOHNSON                8.0   630 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                       

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   EAST BRAINTREE         7.0   449 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   CORINTH                5.0   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   WEST TOPSHAM           5.0   240 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   RANDOLPH CENTER        5.0  1140 PM  2/24  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   STRAFFORD              4.0   745 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NW CHELSEA           4.0   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   SOUTH NEWBURY          3.0   800 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   2 SW SOUTH VERSHIRE    0.5   735 PM  2/24  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   3 WSW JAY             30.0   500 PM  2/25  JAY PEAK                
   1 W NORTH TROY        18.0   458 PM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ALBANY                17.0   650 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 WNW WESTFIELD       11.0   715 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                          
   NEWPORT                8.5   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   7 SE MORGAN            8.5   800 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   2 NNE GREENSBORO       8.0   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   2 NW DERBY CENTER      7.5   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   1 SW IRASBURG          7.0   800 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   2 NNW GREENSBORO       6.8   730 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   3 ENE BARTON           6.6   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                       
   MORGAN                 6.5   655 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
   3 WNW WEST BRIDGEWAT   5.0   318 PM  2/25  KILLINGTON SKI RESORT   
   1 N WEST RUTLAND       1.0   815 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   BRANDON                1.0   821 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   1 N RUTLAND            0.8   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   PAWLET                 0.3   441 PM  2/24  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   WATERBURY             13.0   416 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   WATERBURY CENTER      11.0   236 PM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   3 NE WATERBURY        11.0   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS
   3 WNW WARREN           7.0   323 PM  2/25  SUGARBUSH 1600 FT       
   2 NW EAST CALAIS       7.0   952 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   WORCESTER              6.8   748 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER                 
   MIDDLESEX              6.0   750 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   EAST MONTPELIER        6.0   750 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 SSE WARREN           6.0  1150 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   4 ENE CABOT            5.3   900 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   2 SE WAITSFIELD        5.1   730 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                         
   2 N NORTHFIELD         5.0   830 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                   
   EAST CALAIS            4.5   751 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BERLIN                 4.5   751 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   5 SW MARSHFIELD        4.3   545 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   4 ESE MARSHFIELD       4.0   928 AM  2/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PLAINFIELD             3.5   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   MARSHFIELD             1.5   815 PM  2/24  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
   3 N POMFRET            6.0   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   ROCHESTER              4.5  1013 AM  2/25  PUBLIC                  
   4 N BETHEL             4.1   700 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   WOODSTOCK              4.0   800 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   3 S LUDLOW             3.0   700 AM  2/25  COCORAHS                
   1 S ROCHESTER          3.0   715 AM  2/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   SPRINGFIELD            2.0  1030 PM  2/24  PUBLIC                  
   HARTFORD               1.0   822 PM  2/24  PUBLIC

Friday PM Update

2012-02-24T22:28:00.002-05:00

The burst of heavy snow late today for parts of the Adirondacks has departed and the orographic/lake effect regime is starting to set up.

I was on a snowmobile ride today and experienced almost every type of precipitation. There were flurries and freezing drizzle when I started at noon. Then I encountered a pelting mixture of snow and sleet. When it finally went over to all snow later in the afternoon, it came down hard! I measured 4.5 inches of new snow just a few moments ago and got a report of 5 inches out of Piseco. Much of the additional snowfall with the rest of this storm will favor the western and northwestern Adirondacks. Winds will be strong and gusty later tonight and tomorrow which will blow the lake effect snow around and knock down some snow-laden branches. Since the ground is still frozen, I don't think many trees will get uprooted.

Darrin

Storm Update II

2012-02-24T09:26:00.001-05:00

The front end of this storm is an absolute bust for snow as the first pulse got sheared apart and the dry slot is moving in:

There is a decent snowstorm in progress over the lower Michigan this morning and the satellite shot shows elevated cloud tops, indicating a good deal of energy moving through there:

If this is going to be any kind of decent snow event for us, this storm will have to earn its chops Friday night into Saturday with lake effect and orographic snows. This would favor the western and northwestern Adirondacks:

That's usually a pretty tough task, but this bowling ball moving down the St.Lawrence Valley could do the trick:

So, we'll see what happens.....

Darrin

Storm Update

2012-02-23T23:52:00.000-05:00

My internet is deathly slow tonight, so I'll skip the pictures.

This appears to be a long duration moderate snow-to mixed precipitation-to snow event which will span through Friday and Saturday.

The first burst of snow Friday morning will be associated with an initial surge of warm advection. There appears to be enough of a warm punch for a changeover to mixed precipitation for much of the Adirondacks during the afternoon.

But as the upper low from the Great Lakes moves through and cools the atmospheric column, there will be a changeover back to snow across the North Country early Friday night. Lake effect and backwash moisture will get wrung out over the Adirondacks Friday night into Saturday. This might be where the western and northwestern Adirondacks make most of their hay with this storm.

Darrin

Freakish snow event Thursday Night for Northern Dacks

2012-02-23T09:01:00.000-05:00

I got various reports of 8-12 inches of snow for the Northern Dacks last night from the disturbance that moved through. I only measured 1.5 inches at my house, but there was 0.28 inches of liquid....very wet! The hills surrounding my house look whiter, so probably at least a few inches up there.

This is "Adirondack" Weather Site, but I admit that I do focus on the south-central Adirondacks because that's where I live and play. Hamilton County, alone, is nearly the size of Rhode Island (but with FAR fewer people). So the Adirondacks are a large area to monitor. With the Friday storm coming up and my hometown only getting a minor snowfall last night, it was too easy for me to overlook what was happening further north.

Darrin

Friday's Storm

2012-02-22T23:31:00.001-05:00

The 12Z ECWMF is showing the two main players for Friday's event:

1. Gulf of St.Lawrence Storm

2. Storm approaching from lower Great Lakes

The 00Z NAM is showing a similar scenario:

Whenever the ECMWF and NAM shows good agreement on a potential event within 36-48 hours, my confidence begins to run pretty high. The Gulf of St.Lawrence storm ensures that the Great Lakes storm should not cut up to our west. This appears to be a mostly snow event, perhaps with a widespread snowfall exceeding 6 inches for the North Country.

I'm always looking for what could go wrong with a forecast for significant snow. The big problem I see here is that the Gulf of St.Lawrence storm could be too strong for our own good and shear apart the lower Great Lakes storm on its approach here. That would reduce the intensity of the snowfall on Friday. We'll have to look at trends Thursday night to see whether this will be the case.

Darrin

Blowtorch Warmup on Friday? No so fast grasshopper!!

2012-02-21T22:19:00.003-05:00

The shorter range models might be catching something that the longer range models like ECMWF and GFS failed to pick up on.

Check out the 00Z NAM run for Friday Morning:

The "X" factor is that strong 500mb low over the Gulf of St.Lawrence. That forces the Great Lakes storm to track further south and east than what the longer range models were showing. Also, the magnitude of the Gulf of St.Lawrence storm also limits how strong the Great Lakes storm can become.

The end result would a weaker storm center to pass through New York State instead of a bomb blowing up through Quebec. Temperatures would be borderline for rain/snow throughout the North Country:

This scenario could keep winter limping along for a while longer.

Darrin

A February to remember, for the wrong reason!

2012-02-20T08:22:00.004-05:00

At this writing, I've only managed 4 inches of snowfall for February. And half of that came in a hurry Saturday afternoon!

That's an amazingly low amount of snow for February around here, but not unprecedented. February 1999 was only 5.3 inches. And February 1996 was only 9.0 inches.

If you like to play in the snow, you better get that done in the next few days because we're going to hit another rough patch soon with a significant storm cutting to our west, with a warmup and rain:

Yes, there would be a shot of seasonably cold air and lake effect snow on the back side of the storm over the weekend. But do not expect any cold shot to last for long with the NAO+/AO+ pattern we've been plagued with most of this winter:

If you are hoping for some kind of major turnaround in March, that isn't looking good:

The polar vortices are in the same place they have been for a while: Over Eastern Siberia and Baffin Islands. And we know what that configuration has done for us.

The ECWMF is showing the possibility of a major meltdown set-up by the beginning of March:

I'll grant this is ten days away, but that 1032mb Bermuda High looks very ominous. This winter is littered with the carcasses of meteorologists and weather hobbyists who have bet against warm.

Darrin

Sunday's storm: Wide Right!

2012-02-16T13:44:00.001-05:00

Yesterday's 12Z Operational GFS run seemed like garbage. Then today's 12Z Operational GFS run confirmed that suspicion. Here's what today's 12Z Operational Run shows by Sunday morning:

Without a strong Great Lakes wave to pick up the southern stream energy and a stubborn blocking vortex over Newfoundland, this storm won't have the northward push to make it up here. If you are travelling to southeast PA, New Jersey or Long Island on Sunday, this storm may be a factor. But that would be someone else's forecasting headache.

As we all know, weather can be a funny thing and I'll keep an eye out for any changes.

Darrin

A word (or few) on Sunday's Storm

2012-02-15T19:26:00.002-05:00

The potential Sunday storm is starting to cause a stir.

I'll show you what's causing the buzz:

The GFS depicts a strong northern jet stream wave that captures the storm and brings it up the coast. It's by far the most aggressive and furthest north with the storm track. This would make it snow here in the North Country; a possible SIGNIFICANT snowfall. The big problem I have with this scenario is that the operational GFS has been awful this winter (to the point where I don't look at it much) and less than half of the GFS ensembles have any snow making it this far north. Some of the ensembles still show a very clean miss for us.

Moving onto the ECWMF:

The ECMWF has a superior track record and shows a weak northern stream wave scooting by and letting the storm pass way to our south, a very clean miss for us.

Here is the UKMET, not as aggressive as the GFS. But it does show the storm trying to make a run at us:

And on the other side of the camp, here's the GEM with a pathetically weak outcome:

If the strong Great Lakes shortwave ends up being legit, the storm would make a run up the coast. But the presence of a blocking vortex over Newfoundland would prevent the storm from really "taking to the house" up here in the North Country.

The bottom line: If you have to travel back home on Sunday, you will need to keep an eye on this storm. It's still 4 days away and we don't know yet what kind of energy will be moving through the Great Lakes by this weekend. This is the most uncertain I've been in regards to a storm in a while.

Darrin

Storm Update

2012-02-14T19:15:00.001-05:00

Thursday PM/Night:

Although the storm center will track to our west, like nearly all others this winter, the warming ahead of it will not be strong. Temperatures will rise well above 32*F throughout the North Country before the storm starts, but good evaporative cooling during the onset of precipitation should ensure an entire snow event in most places:

This storm will favor the southwestern Adirondacks due to enhanced Lake Ontario moisture and uplift. This will be a minor event for the Northern 'Dacks. I think the 18Z NAM has a pretty good handle on the snowfall distribution:

As for Sunday's storm, that one is going to miss us by plenty. The strong polar jet will suppress this one way to our south:

Seasonably cold air will be entrenched over the North Country Sunday and Monday. But don't fall in love with it. By Tuesday, the cold air is back up in Canada, where it has been all winter:

So, if your favorite snow playground gets the goods before this weekend, you better grab it while it lasts. I still don't see any game-changer. . . .

Darrin

Great White Hope for Presidents' Weekend?

2012-02-12T20:21:00.000-05:00

Got your attention? I admit that I chose this headline to grab your attention even though this event won't even hold a firecracker to the Valentine's Day 2007 Mega-Blizzard!

However, I see a credible prospect for a decent snow event during the Thursday/Friday time frame.

The first chart shows a problem that we've had all winter with any significant storm. The storm system will be tracking to our west with a bulge of milder air ahead of it.

But, there is a subtle wrinkle this time. The NAO is expected to trend neutral to slightly negative in the days leading up to the storm:

That could be just enough to result in a slight coastal secondary low development by Friday morning. You can see the hint of it near Long Island on this chart:

That subtle coastal secondary low development could mean the difference between a slop-fest and a significant snowfall, especially over the south-central and eastern Adirondacks.

Really though, anything that would cause me to fire up my snowblower would be significant this month. I haven't even accumulated ONE inch of snow yet for February. That's crazy!

Darrin

Arctic Invasion is Underway. . . .

2012-02-11T10:35:00.002-05:00

You can see how dense this dome of cold air really is! The Arctic air mass is easily penetrating the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. As the depth of the cold air increases behind the departing ocean storm, the Adirondacks will succumb to the invasion as well.

Darrin

A feather in my cap. . . .

2012-02-09T17:04:00.001-05:00

Annie Stoltie, who wrote "Storms of the Centuries: 10 Adirondack weather disasters, from hurricanes and landslides to blowdowns and blizzards" (with some help by me) won gold in the International Regional Magazine Association's Nature Category.

Annie does a great job with her articles and I was more than happy to help her out on Storms of the Centuries. It was a lot of fun.

Darrin

Change of timing for the Arctic Blast!

2012-02-08T22:53:00.002-05:00

Most of the time, when the models latch onto a rapid acceleration of an arctic cold blast, it's legit. This panel shows a powerhouse arctic front plowing through the North Country Sunday morning, producing snow squalls with whiteouts. Rapidly shifting winds and the extreme advection of dry arctic air will shut down the lake effect snows pretty quickly on Sunday. Wind chills will become dangerously low as temperatures drop throughout the day.

BUT.......this arctic blast will be moving out as quickly as it moves in. So Monday will mark the return to our mid-winter doldrums.

Darrin

Yet Another Phantom Pattern Change Around the Corner!

2012-02-07T20:28:00.003-05:00

This over-arching weather pattern for this winter has become predictable to the point of boredom. But we're hearing rumors of another pattern change that won't be coming to fruition.

The dominant polar vortex configuration over the past month has been the East Siberian - Baffin Island couplet. Occasionally, the polar vortex has set up over Alaska, which is the kiss of death for sustained cold in the continental United States.

Let's play a game!

Take a look at where the polar vortices are now:

A week from now:

Two weeks from now:

The positioning hasn't changed much, has it? Based on what we have seen already this winter, why should we expect things to change now, especially when the polar vortex configuration doesn't change?

Now that doesn't mean that it CAN'T get cold and snowy for a few days at a time. In fact, we are going to have a taste of true winter this weekend, which I alluded to in a previous blog entry.

Indeed, a short wave rotating through the Great Lakes around the Polar Vortex dropping into Hudson Bay could spawn a decent snow event for parts of the Adirondacks this weekend:

In that storm's wake, there should be a full on Arctic plunge into the North Country early next week. If this panel is correct, the Northern Adirondacks won't make it above zero on Monday!

But, the Polar Vortex will quickly retreat northward with no Greenland Block to keep it in place. The arctic outbreak will be history by Tuesday:

You need to remember that one cold blast doth not constitute a pattern change. It can still get cold and snowy every once in a while in the lousiest of winters, which is how I managed about 2 feet of snowfall at my house over the month of January.

As we get toward the later half of February, the longer days and stronger late winter sun could push temperatures into the 50s throughout the North Country during a warm-up, perhaps crashing 60*F in the southeastern Adirondacks. That's not a forecast yet, but that's something to keep in mind. I remember riding my bike in February 2002 during such a warm-up. And this winter reminds me a lot of 2001-2002, as you probably know by now.

If you are a lover of winter, enjoy the taste we'll get this weekend into early next week. This is just one of those winters we'll be living hand to mouth for snow, so to speak.

Darrin

What happens in Europe......Stays in Europe!

2012-02-02T22:35:00.001-05:00

Europe has gotten remarkably cold in the past week: http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/europe-cold-spell-kills-hundreds-entire-village-trapped-by-heavy-snow-172857

In general, this is probably related to the Arctic Oscillation plummeting into its negative phase for the first time this winter:

Delving into specifics, a high latitude blocking ridge has developed over the top of Europe which has displaced bitter cold air from the Arctic, southward into Europe:

No wonder why Europe has been so cold and stormy lately! A high latitude blocking ridge (or high) is essentially a mound of relatively warm and tranquil air that develops over the Arctic region from time to time. Since every action is met with an equal and opposite reaction, cold air gets pushed down into the mid latitudes. That's why a blocking high is a highly effective method of initiating Arctic outbreaks.

This has sparked all kinds of speculation about a massive weather pattern here in the continental United States in February. Unfortunately (for lovers of winter), I don't see that happening yet because there is almost no indication of a NAO negative/Greenland Block yet:

A few of the ensemble members are showing a neutral to slight NAO- pattern developing by mid-February. But the vast majority of the members are showing a strong NAO+ pattern resuming by the middle of the month. In medium to long range forecasting, there is often safety in numbers. And, the overwhelming trend this winter is for NAO+.

If you keep forecasting the massive change to a sustained cold pattern, you'll be wrong over and over again. If you keep forecasting the status-quo with the overall pattern seemingly set in stone, you'll only be wrong once....and only if the pattern actually changes!

Darrin

Pattern will change to sustained cold, BLAH BLAH BLAH!!!

2012-02-01T19:35:00.000-05:00

If I had a dollar for every time that has been said this winter, I wouldn't need to work nearly as hard as I do for a living.

So, I'm going to debunk this re-enactment of the sustained cold pattern myth:

Look at where we are right now:

A strong polar vortex north of Alaska ALWAYS is the kiss of death for cold weather in the continental United States. All you need to do was to step outside today to verify that concept.

Fast forward to this weekend:

A storm offshore Labrador will bring a quick shot of seasonably cold air to the North Country. There is no Greenland block to keep this cold air locked in. And it will get warm again early next week as the storm departs. Note that nearly all of the bitter cold air will be located over Asia.

Now we get to the part that some people are drooling over:

The Canadian vortex re-establishes a cross polar flow into eastern Canada. If a strong shortwave disturbance swings around the base of trough through the Great Lakes into New England, that could produce a decent snow event for the North Country and a shot of cold air before the middle of February. But this is hardly the set-up for a classic Nor'easter.

There are a few critical things that the cold mongerers are overlooking:

1. Most of the bitter cold air will still be locked over Asia: See East Siberian Vortex.

2. The Canadian Vortex is still not in a great position to lock us in the cold air. You need to have it over Hudson Bay to do that.

3. A Greenland-based negative NAO is CRITICAL for sustained cold weather around here. There is NO indication of that happening the next two weeks. NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH, ZIP!!!!

So I think all of this talk of "Fab Feb" or "February to Remember!" is either a delusion or a sad attempt to get extra web traffic. I allow for the yet unseen possibility of a game-changing snowstorm that changes the complexion of this winter. But based on what has happened so far this winter and the patterns likely to take shape over the next 7-10 days, I wouldn't even wager someone else's money on that.

Darrin

I'll be back!!

2012-01-31T22:12:00.000-05:00

I've been playing in the snow for a couple of days. Now I have to catch up on my chores. So I'll be back to fun with weather either tomorrow or Thursday.

Darrin