The demonstration video:

and resulting questionnaire:

:
http://alturl.com/6c3qv

Were both sent out to my blog subscribers and FaceBook friends. So far, according to the questionnaire, it was been fairly well recieved:

Please rate your level of interest:
43% = “I liked it”
21% = “it was ok”
13% = “it blew me away!”
3% = “snore! boring.”

but some of the comments are making me realize that I am not providing enough technical science to back up my claims. When I am accused of being “unscientific” about my approach, it really irks me. Anyone who knows me, knows how anally technical I can be. My time limit on the TED presentation is 18 minutes. I can’t launch into all of the controls, and statistical analyasis that I do, because I don’t have time, and like I said, I would end up alienating 80% of my audience.

I’m not so sure I want to do this 18 minute presentation now. I don’t think there is a middle ground without turning it into a 2 hour seminar / workshop, or – even better, a book.

For those members of my blog audience who need a little more, I totally understand. I would be exactly the same. I have prepared the following (below) outlining the details on the protocol that I use, the controls that are in place to prevent information leakage, and the statistical evidence that there is indeed something going on here.

So for those of you interested, that information is below. And for those who have not yet viewed the demo video, I invite you to please watch it, and then read the details below. If you have questions, or comments or just want to discuss, email me adventuresofgreg@gmail.com

—————
More information about the Princeton Pear program:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_Engineering_Anomalies_Research_Lab

Detailed protocol:

1. Selection of a market to trade, trade entry date & time and trade exit date & time

The selection of a futures market that will be the subject of the prediction is done randomly by a computer application which I wrote to manage this entire process. It uses the pseudo random generator to select one futures market from a basket of various futures contracts such as: Gold, Oil, S&P 500, 10 year T bills, Japanese Yen, Wheat, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc. The application selects the contract month with the highest average trading volume from the most recent trading day (active contract), and calculates the number of contracts to trade based on recent volatility to equalize risk/reward between all markets in the basket. Almost all trades are entered at the market open, and exited on the same day at the market close. Each market and each exchange has it’s own open and close time, and these exact times are used to place the entry and exit orders.

In most cases, the actual identity of the futures market chosen by my computer program is kept hidden from me. There have been times where I needed to preview the market due to ensuring that the current contract month selected was still a valid month for the trading date, and other trading function concerns. However, knowledge of the market being traded isn’t required as a control in stopping any information leakage, as the trade direction (buy or sell), is also kept hidden from me.

A future date is chosen by myself. This date is any date in the near future that is an actual trading date (ie: the exchange is open for business on that date), and allows me enough time to complete all of the trials. Typically, the trading date is in 7 to 10 days from when I start this whole process.

2. Set up of the trials

I have the computer program automatically set up 20 to 100 trials. Each ‘trial’ is 2 photographs that are randomly chossen by the program from a database of photo URLs. These images are from a number of different libraries and are generated by another program that I wrote that takes random words from a dictionary and collects images from the internet using search engines from google, Flickr, and various stock photography web sites. The computer application then randomly assigns “BUY” or “SELL” to each image in each set for each trial. The computer application does not allow me to see what the “BUY” or “SELL” association is – that is always kept HIDDEN. This is an important control because if I did know which image was “BUY” or “SELL” then I would be able to have some conscious input on my trading decision as I compared my sketch to both images (Even though, most times, I don’t even know what market I am trading). The number of trials that I create for each trade depends on how accurate I want to be with my prediction, and how much time I have available between the set up date and the trade date. Recently, the number of trials has been from 50 to 80.

3. The random thinking process.

I will take from 3 to 10 days to work my way through all 50 to 80 trials. Typically for each trial the process goes like this: I sit in a comfortable chair with noise blocking headphones on, and a note pad in hand. I close my eyes, and try to imagine myself sitting in front of my computer screen on the day of the trade, at a time after the market has closed and my trade has either been profitable or not. I imagine looking at my computer screen, and imagine what the photograph for “Trial # 1″ would look like. I draw, write, sketch what ever comes to mind on one sheet of my note pad with the title “Trial # 1″. As I said in the video, I’m just a random idea generator.

I repeat this process multiple times per day for 3 to 10 days until I have completed generating random thoughts for all trials in the trade.

4. The sketch comparison process

When I have completed ‘random thinking’ from 6 to 10 trials, I will compare my sketch for each trial to the two images that were set up for that trial. I use my computer program to do this. I see 2 images, side by side, and compare my sketch to them. I select either the image on the right, or the image on the left depending on which one I thing more closely resembles my sketch. The program randomly displays one image on the right and one on the left and this changes each time I open the image set to avoid any right/left subconscious preference. The “BUY” or “SELL” associations are KEPT hidden, and are also randomly assigned. There is no way I could know which image is connected to which association, and that control is VERY important because if I happened to know what market was being traded, and also knew which image was associated to up, and down, then I would be able to override the sketch comparison, and use my knowledge of fundamental information for that market, and have a predisposition to choose the image that was associated to that opinion.

I make the selection by clicking a radio button, then assign that selection a confidence score from 1 to 4. I assign a score of 1 if neither image resembles my sketch. I assign a 4 if I am confident that the similarities between one of the images and my drawing is not due to chance (rare).

5. determining consensus

After all the trials have been mediated on, and the sketch comparison process has been completed, my computer app ADDS all of the scores that were assigned to the “Buy” association and “Sell” association, then considers the difference. If the difference in the sums is greater than a predetermined threshold value (about 54% of the trials should confirm one prediction), then I initiate the trade in the direction of the association with the highest sum.

6. Placing the order for the trade

As part of my application, I wrote an API that connects to my brokers order entry system and submits my order. So basically, my program will decide if there is a strong enough consensus, and automatically place the order entry, and order exit for me without my knowledge of the market or direction. Most of the time, the first time I learn about what market I just traded and what direction I went (long or short), is AFTER the trade has been closed. This is not always the case due to technical reasons.

7. Viewing feedback

To close the loop, the last step is to view each image from each set that was associated to the ACTUAL outcome. This is the point where, when looking at an image on my screen, I would have the opportunity to influence the outdone of my random thoughts from a week or two ago to resemble the image that I am now looking at.

8. Statistics

My application also will calculate the statistics for me including export plots, histograms, generate Monet Carlo simulations, etc. I have learned a lot over the years about statistical analysis, and have had a few very highly educated and experienced mentors over the years.

I’m currently sitting on the deck of our hotel room in Santa Cruz enroute to LA from Sanfrancisco with Helen by bicycle, and I don’t have access to my database to generate some current stats for you. But to summarize, as I indicated in the video, my success rate for trades which are a consensus of individual trials is about 75% over 100’s of trades, my Z score is somewhere around 4 standard deviations from chance expectation. The individual trials are 54% correct, and that is a Z score of 5 standard deviations from chance. as I said in the video, that converts to odds against chance of 3.5 million to 1.

Since I am not aware of the market being traded, nor am I aware of the direct of the trade (buy or sell), according to commonly accepted physics models, I should be at 50% success rate for both the trades and the individual trials because my predictions (buy or sell) would be just random (assuming that the mentation process is nonsense). This is so far from being chance (4 to 5 deviations), that this should cause you to consider that perhaps there is really something that current physics understanding can’t explain. Unless you think I’m lying – which, if you do, then there is really nothing more I can say.

9. External factors

There are correlations between my effect size and solar wind speed, lunar phase, and other external causal factors – I won’t get into that unless you are specifically interested. Again, if you would like to see some plots, let me know, and I’ll generate them for you when I get back.

Questions and conversation welcome!

Cheers,
Greg Kolodziejzyk

Your feedback of my ‘work-in-progress’ presentation titled “The Thought Power Experiment” is very important to me. The challenge that I face, is designing a presentation that conveys the technical information regarding a complex process in a friendly, easy to understand way – while maintaining focus on the bigger picture message. My goal is to be invited to present this at ‘the’ big TED conference. (My TEDx presentation in Toronto is a smaller affiliated TED event). To get there is going to take more refinement and fine tuning I think. It can’t be just ‘good’ – it has to be ‘blow you away good’. This is where I could really use your help by watching the video, answering the questionnaire, and providing me with your feedback, thoughts, suggestions, comments, etc.

WARNING: This video is likely to challenge your current concept of reality.

Please help me make this presentation better by answering this QUESTIONNAIRE:
(if the form doesn’t appear below, please clink this link: http://alturl.com/6c3qv )

Northface endurance challenge 50 mile race report:

My legs are feeling surprisingly good today after running the NF 50 mile ultramarathon yesterday in 8 hours, forty seven minutes. I had an amazing race finishing with a personal best earning me second place in my age group.

Who would have thought Washington DC had good trails? This race featured 50 miles of some of the prettiest trails I’ve ran. It was moderately hilly, and not overly technical, despite 2 crashes – the first was just after the 5:00 am start in the dark when I tripped on a rock and landed hard resulting in a bruised and bloody hip and finger. My second fall was near the cliffs over looking the Potomac river. It was many hours into the race and the foot to eye coordination required to step over large boulders was seriously lacking. I tripped and fell (luckily not into the river!) forehead first onto a rock. Ouch!!! That one really hurt! I have a cut and a small welt on my head.

The first 2 hours were fairly slow due to the narrow path and hundreds of runners that were all in front, so I just sort of let the slowest at the front set the pace and figured I would conserve – especially since it was difficult to see the trail in the dark. When the trail opened up to a wide and inviting gravel path, I decided to step on the gas and shifted up to what I would classify as a marathon long run training gear – breathing hard, but short of an all-out marathon pace.

My mental calculations had me finishing at around 9 hours which I knew would have put me at the top of my age group in last years race, but the day was not too hot and humidity was low, so I knew that finishing times would be fast.

I was surprised by how little I was eating and thought I should make a mental note that perhaps some of the stomach issues I’ve had in previous races could be due to eating too much? I ate 2 small packs of chocolate cookies, a few crackers, a hand full of m&m’s and drank a couple of small cups of coke at each station. Maybe my low food intake was due to my carb-loading: spaghetti and meatballs for 2 dinners before the race. Whatever it was, I never really felt tired or sluggish. (Mental note: don’t forget about the spaghetti and meatballs – 2 meals prior to race).

During the last 2 hours, I didn’t see any 50 milers around, so I sort of figured that I might be doing well.

As usual, that last few miles to the finish line took forever and by then I really was in agony trying to keep my pace up. I was thrilled to see a third place finish on the race stats! Helen pointed out to me later that I placed third in the 40 – 49 year group, but actually placed second in my correct 50- 59 group.

A day earlier when we picked up our race packages, I noticed the error on my race number and immediately reported it to the 17 year old girl working at the North Face store who whipped open her lap top and after 2 or 3 keystrokes and a single mouse click, confidently assured me that it was all good, and that the error had been fixed. Of course, I had no reason to doubt the technical proficiency of a teen age girl working in the fashion industry who didn’t even want to see my ID, and mysteriously had full and immediate access the to race database, so I was happy that the issue was resolved. I truth, I really could care less about this. As Helen and I walked out of the store we had a good laugh as we pondered the chances that any real correction in the database had taken place. Northface does an AWESOME job with this series of ultras which is why we have run 2 of them, and will absolutely sign up for more.

Helen ran her second ultra which was the 50 km race, and she said that she felt it was one of her funnest races ever, finishing 7th in her div.

We toured the Smithsonian Air and Space museum today and I got to see the Gossamer Condor which was a thrill for me. A couple of decades ago, I read the book by Paul McCready and i credit that book as one of my key inspirations toward my eventual human powered pursuits.

Summer plans

We are taking a few days to visit our son Cody who is going to school in Durham, North Carolina – one of our favorite places!

The next event on our calendar is the K100 relay race in Kananaskis, then Helen and I are going to hike the west coast trail with 2 good friends. We expect it to take 5 days and we’re already fully kitted up with new backpacks, and tents. I have TONS of dehydrated food still from Pedaltheocean expedition that was cancelled, so we’ll be good for food.

After the WCT, we are taking the kids on a cycling trip through Ireland which I’m really excited about. Then in September, I’m going to run the San Fransisco One Day ultramarathon again. I loved that race so much last year that I talked Helen into running the 12 hour race. My goal is to improve on my 4th place finish and 101 miles last year which won’t be easy. I caught a break last Sept due to so many runners quitting because of the rain. If the weather this year is reasonable, I won’t have that advantage.

Then at the end of September, Helen and I are thinking of a self supported bike trip down the California coast. We cycled the Oregon coast many years ago and have always wanted to go back and finish the left coast.

We have a few weeks between now and the K100, so I’m kind of thinking of maybe finding a flat and fast marathon and going for a new PR. I feel like I’m in pretty good shape for knocking on the 3 hour door and I’m thinking that I might need to leverage all the good run training I’ve got under my belt right now. A 3 hr marathon has been a long, long time goal of mine and I do realize that I’m not getting any younger. I need to strike while the iron is hot!

Oh – I forgot one more thing: my buddy Bryon and I are thinking of climbing mount Assiniboine in August! And we want to do it fast, ultra marathon style. No rest, no sleep. I’ll keep you informed – I’ve seen photos of the climb and the scenery is amazing.

What are your plans for the summer?

I’ve listed WiTHiN for sale, but I am seriously considering donating her to an organization who runs some really amazing expeditions for youth. It’s something I totally support, and I can see them putting WiTHiN to VERY GOOD USE! Stay tuned for more information as that opportunity develops.

On the physical end of things, Helen and I ran the Las Vegas half marathon a couple of weeks ago, and in spite of some tendonitis on my ankle from the San Fransisco One Day 100 mile ultra, I exceeded my expectations with a 93 minute run.

My next event is Ironman St George in May. My training hours are at the relatively lazy level of less than 10 hours per week, and it suits me just fine for right now. I’ll have to ramp that up after Christmas to get ready for IM in May.

I’m thinking of getting into ski mountaineering racing – mostly as something to do outside this winter to stay fit and get fitter. We’re headed to our ski cabin in Montana after Christmas and I’m hoping to get some great ski mountaineering training in. This video shows what it’s all about.

Attached are some photos of the shop! – you won’t recognize it! Completely renovated. It’s now my secret lair where I will plan my world domination. Or play drums and watch TV.

The shop area below is now a flexible space where I will do some of my training with the mag trainer, etc. I put an old couch in there, and one of my drum sets is up on the catwalk. When we were building WiTHiN in the shop, we had added an extension into the garage because the shop wasn’t big enough to hold the full 30 foot length of the boat. That annex now houses a small work bench, the drill press, saw, tig welder, tool boxes, etc. A sort of mini-shop if I need it. (I imagine that if I do end up taking the whole world domination route, then I’ll probably be needing that small shop space).

The upstairs turret is now my office. As I may have mentioned in a previous post, I have decided to become financially productive again and I needed a better office than the shared space in the family computer room that I had been using. I trade futures and commodities using computerized systems that I research and develop. If any followers are in the financial industry, or interested in what I am doing, please drop me a line.

I would like to wish you and your family a safe and happy holiday season!

Inside Passage Expedition video

Additional information:

1. WiTHiN construction accounting statement

2. VIDEO: WiTHiN Tour

3. SLIDE SHOW: Boat building photo log

3. WEB SITE: Visit the PedalTheOcean.com web site

Contact: Greg Kolodziejzyk greg@pedaltheocean.com

And what an incredible experience it was! I feel like I pushed myself harder than I ever have before. I am writing this paragraph from my bed at the Travel Lodge Presidio late Sunday afternoon. It takes me 10 minutes to walk to the bathroom, preceded by 20 minutes just lying there trying to psych myself up for the arduous, painful task. I’ve never hurt so much just lying still. Every muscle, bone, joint, and skin cell is screaming at me. Still, I had 16 glorious hours of the best sleep of my life.

My day started at 8:00 am on Saturday morning when I arrived at Crissy Field in San Fransisco to set up my tent and get my race bib and timing chip. The weather forecast looked pretty bad – two storms blowing through over the next 24 hours with plenty of rain and high winds. Since I hadn’t booked a hotel room for Saturday night, I wanted to set up my tent and throw a sleeping bag in just in case worse came to worse and I had to drop at some point during the night – at least I would have some place to crawl into and escape until morning. And since I knew rain was in the forecast, I wanted somewhere dry to protect all of my gear: food, extra clothes, spare shoes, headlamp, medical needs, etc.

As I set up my tent, I met my neighbors Joey Bryan and Linda Wise from San Diego. As Joey put it “We have our own little Mysteria Lane here.” As it turned out, my piece of property on SF1 Mysteria Lane turned out to be a bad buy. It’s an old tent and it leaked BADLY. After the heavy rain started, my sleeping bag was soaking in an inch of water – everything in the tent was soaked including my cell phone which was why I only made 2 Facebook updates.

The race started at 9:00 am sharp in fairly decent and dry weather with temperatures in the low 60’s  which is perfect running weather. 52 runners registered for the 24 hour race, and 43 registered for the 12 hour race excitedly pushed off across the start line. The course is a flat 1.06 mile loop around Crissy Field. The South side of the rectangular course was a popular paved recreational path packed with other runners, a big walking event, cyclists and people enjoying the park on a weekend. The south side was gravel along the beach next to San Fransisco bay. We enjoyed amazing views of the Golden Gate bridge and Alcatraz as we made our incessant right hand turns. Race director Sara Spelt reminded us that there are only 4 turns on the course and none of them are left!

The objective of the SF One Day is to chock up as many laps in exactly 24 hours (or 12 hours if you are registered in the 12 hr division) as you are capable of. The course record is 140 miles. There was one aid station stocked with water, electrolyte drink, potatoes, pretzels, beef jerky, cookies, gummy bears, M & M’s, cake, pumpkin pie, sandwiches, hot chicken soup, chips, and many other goodies – plenty to choose from!

I was sort of disappointed to resort to my iPod so soon after the start, but after only 2 laps, I sort of got the hang of it and there was really nothing else to see. Also I didn’t feel like talking to anyone yet because I was running at a pretty good pace and wanted to keep my rhythm going for as long as I could.

I felt good. Really good in fact. My goal was to run at a 4 hour marathon pace for as long as I possibly could, then resort to a mix of run / walk as required to achieve my 100 mile goal. I was happy to finish 25 miles after 4 hours and still feeling pretty good, continued to run straight through the next 4 hours and tacked on another 25 miles. At the 4 hour mark the rain started, but it was relatively warm and my pace was fast enough that I could run through most of it without my rain jacket.

When I reached 50 miles I really wanted to walk a lap, but felt I was still capable of running some more so I made myself a deal that I would run 10 more laps, then do some walking. So I did – I think I was at 60 miles in 8 hours and I was still in a pretty decent mood. A darn good mood actually. I would have burst into song as I am known to do at times, but there were way too many others around and I felt that it would be cruel to subject anyone aside from family and close friends to my singing voice.

I started to do the math. I timed a fast walking lap and tried to calculate my finishing mileage based on a mix of walking and running. I realized that there would be no way to make it to a hundred with just walking, so I started to run down the paved side of the course and fast walk the beach side. I continued to do this throughout the afternoon and into the evening interspersed with a running lap when I got paranoid about my math abilities. The rain tapered off during the night, but came back with a vengeance at about 4:00 am accompanied by 40 mph winds. I made a lot of friends during the night and chatting everyone really helped pass the time. Let me tell you about my friend Tony.

Tony Arrizon is 50 and was running his second ultra event. When Tony was in the military he was part of the team who attempted the illfated rescue of american hostages in Iran in 1980. Operation Eagle Claw resulted in the destruction of two aircraft and the deaths of eight American servicemen and one Iranian civilian. After their plane blew up, Tony ran for one of the helicopters, jumped up to catch the landing gear and fell off, then ran after the last chopper, did the same jump and was pulled aboard at the last minute. The reason he was chosen for the mission was because he was a good runner. The idea was that if he didn’t make it aboard any of the rescue aircraft, he could run 60 miles across the desert to Safety. With the Iranian army chasing him. Right. Needless to say, Tony is very happy that he was pulled aboard the last chopper after falling off the first one and watching the airplane explode into flames.

As the night wore on, I periodically checked with the timing mat official on my lap count. The math wasn’t working out, so I started to run full laps again. I repeated this process many times throughout the early morning – run as many laps as I could possibly stand, walk a few, get a lap count, do the math, get discouraged and start running again. Each walk break was like throwing the switch on the ‘change friends’ machine. Since I was in a generally good mood, I would ask everyone how they were doing as I passed. Once in a while my pace would match someone else’s, and we would start up a conversation.

Tony finally told me why my math wasn’t working – I was under the assumption that each lap was exactly a mile. The timing official had told him 95 laps was slightly over 100 miles. That was perfect because all of my calculations had me finishing 5 laps short!

The bleak early hours of the morning were very strange – like a battle field the morning after. I witnessed runners sprawled out on park benches, lying on the path, weaving right and left like a drunkard, and someone wrapped up in a sleeping bag taking baby steps as if they had a heavy ball and chains attached to each leg. My buddy Aaron who I was running with earlier had completely fallen apart. He was creeping along with his head tilted sideways dragging his right foot on the ground and wearing nothing but his running shorts and a sleeveless t-shirt. It was pouring rain and the wind was blowing 30 miles per hour at the time. A couple of hours earlier when I was running with him and his brother, he was wearing rain pants and a rain jacket. I stopped and asked Aaron if he was OK. He told me in a very slurred voice: “I juss fffell apppart – I alwaysss dddo this”. On the next lap around I told him that he should be wearing more clothes and asked him if he wanted me to get some help for him. He insisted that he was OK and we were almost finished, so I let it go. One of the leaders of the 24 hour race was doubled over at one point and had to be carried off. A couple of hours later he was back running his 8 minute miles – incredible. Laura Bleakley was ahead of me in distance and winning the women’s race. She pulled out and spent 2 hours throwing her guts up. Then she came back to run the last two hours and tied me for distance.

The aid station / timing mat area was an un-inspiring mess and got worse as the night got longer and weather got worse. The organizers stopped manning the aid station and all of the food was just set out on two tables – self-serve style. The drinking cups were wrapped up in a couple of bags and had blown off the table into the mud – a real pain when you are counting seconds and have to dig through dirty plastic bags to pick out a cup and pour your own. The coke bottle was tipped over and spilled onto the table. There were pizza boxes in the mud that I had to run around. The path that lead through the timing / aid station area was thick mud and riddled with puddles. Not a pretty picture at all, but thankfully, it only lasted a few seconds before turning right onto the bike path.

I ran and ran/walked the last couple of hours with (sorry! – I forgot your name) who kept me entertained with various stories about his life and numerous ultra races (believe me, the very LAST thing you want to talk about when RUNNING an ultra, is running an ultra!). I want to thank him for pacing me through the last couple of hours and helping me with the math. As it worked out, I crossed the timing mat for the very last time at 8:47 am with a grand total of 95 laps which converts to 100.8 miles.

I met Joey and Linda at the finish line and everyone sort of quickly ran off to take down tents and gather stuff because the wind was ramping up it’s intensity and starting to blow the timing tent over. These ultras are low-key events for sure – which is kind of nice. The web site promises “a custom award with the runners name and distance”. I’m hoping they will mail that to me?

I threw my piece of garbage tent in the trash can, packed up my stuff as the wet wind howled and my buddy Tony gave me a lift to my hotel room where Raymond worked like mad to get a room ready for me way earlier than their check-in time. I fell asleep at 11:00 am, woke up at 5:00 pm, ordered a pizza, ate 3 slices and I was sound sleep again by 9:00 pm and didn’t wake up until 9:00 am the next morning.

It’s Tuesday now and I’m feeling much better. Legs still a bit sore, but my feet are a mess. Big blisters on my toes and swollen ankles as usual.

What’s next? I’m going to start to focus on Ironman training now to get ready for IM St. George in May with my friend Bryon. Helen and I are running the Vegas marathon in December and Boston marathon in April and I would really like to see how close I can get to 3 hours. However, every year I get a year older darn it! I don’t know how that happens, but it does, and with each additional year of living comes a bit of a loss in physical performance – but I’m fighting it every step of the way!

jacked on carbs!

Yeeeee-owza! I’ve just come off of a 7-day fat loading diet and I’m enjoying my first day of a 2-day carb loading period prior to my 24 hour ultramarathon in San Fransisco on Saturday. After my waffles with maple syrup breakfast with a fresh pineapple and toasted bagel with jam for lunch, I can feel the carbs coursing through my veins endowing me with unimaginable super powers! It’s a good feeling.

I’ve been using the fat loading diet for many years prior to important races. The diet consists of mainly fat for 7 days, then a 2-day carb load, then you turn into a super star and race. The reason it works is during the 7-day fat load period, your body gets used to burning fat and conserving carbohydrates. Then when you feast on carbohydrates, your body ’super compensates’, thinking that you may face another carb starvation period, and it stores MORE glycogen in your muscles cells than normal. This is your rocket fuel on race day. On race day, not only do you have access more more glycogen stores, your body is slightly more efficient in burning the carbs because it has learned to use fat instead. And we all have plenty of fat. The average lean athlete has enough energy stored as fat to complete 7 Ironman triathlons back to back. Fat is plentiful, but carbohydrates are finite. Your body burns fat in a carbohydrate flame – meaning that even though you might have plenty of fat to burn, your body needs to stoke the fire with carbs and they are in limited supply.

Fat loading diet studies have shown a slightly significant 5% increase in performance. I’ve had good luck in the past, and since this race is important to me, I’m really hoping that it will provide me with the edge I need to accomplish one of my long term goals – to run 100 miles.

The race is called The San Fransisco One Day and it takes place on Saturday October 23 at Crissy Field in San Fransisco. The course is a ONE MILE loop. Ya – that’s what I said. One mile. The objective is to complete as many laps as you can in exactly 24 hours. The winner is the one with the most miles. My goal is 100 miles.

The weather forecast is calling for rain all day which could be a drag – but I’ll deal with it. It should be cool which might be good. A big advantage to a 1 mile loop is I can stow tons of gear at the aid station – change of clothes, rain gear, food, snacks, spare shoes – I’m even going to set up a small tent.

Follow my progress on race day at the web site’s “Live Runner Updates” page: http://www.pctrailruns.com/event.aspx?dtid=5446

I will also be posting FaceBook updates throughout the race at my Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/greg.kolodziejzyk

Our trip started with the Virgil Crest ultra marathon on Sept 25th. Helen successfully finished the 50 miler and I dropped out of the 100 mile race at about 70 miles due to some bad stomach issues where I resorted to ‘trotting’ into the bush multiple times. Read all the gory details in a blog post here.

Then we were off to New York city for a couple of days where I attempted to walk-off the post ultra leg and foot pains. We took in a Broadway show and then flew to Spain where we spend a couple of days in Madrid, then Barcelona. We met our Backroads cycling tour group in Barcelona and spend the next 6 days touring Spain through the heart of Catalonia which included a spectacular day in the Pyrenees climbing a Tour du France mountain stage, and 2 days by the Mediterranean. We had a wonderful time and made some great new friends.

After the bike trip, we spent another day in Madrid then flew to New York City and took in another Broadway show, then flew home yesterday.

Whew! Makes me tired just thinking of it. So… I am flying to San Fransisco next Friday to run another ultra!

Yep you heard me. After dropping at the 70 mile mark in Virgil, I was really feeling like I had it in me to go the whole way – the big 100 miles. I’m feeling like my training this summer was really good, and if I wait until next summer to give the 100 miler another shot, then I need to put in another summer of training for it. I think I am ready now, so I’m going to give this one more shot before I switch my training to Ironman (registered for Ironman St. George in May).

The race isn’t exactly a hundred mile ultra, it’s a 24 hour race call the San Fransisco One Day. The course is a ONE MILE loop around Crissy Field. It starts at 9:00 am on Saturday morning (Oct 23) and finishes 24 hours later at 9:00 am on Sunday morning. If all goes well, I’m pretty sure I can run at least 100 miles in 24 hours. In fact, I’m so sure that I will succeed this time, that I didn’t book a hotel room for Saturday! As I was booking my hotel room, the agent informed me that they were fully booked on Saturday, so I confidently told him that would be ok because I won’t be requiring a bed, sleep, or hotel room on Saturday because I will be running around in circles. Literally.

So the pressure is really on now – I HAVE To make it. as I have no place to stay if I drop. If I were a believer in fate, then the fact that I can’t get a hotel room on Saturday night must be a good sign!

Helen is smart, and she has decided NOT to participate, so I’ll be going this alone. If anyone is interested in joining me on Saturday, let me know. It could be fun.

Here are some photos from the trip:

This was the response offered to my question: “Why don’t you guys plan more long, flat, ‘runnable’ sections in your race?”

I was talking to one of the race organizers at an aid station who asked me how I liked the course. His response to my question was obviously referring to race director Ian Golden’s decision to add over 2000 ft of elevation to the 2010 Virgil Crest ultramarathon totalling 19,900 ft, while removing most of sissy runnable fire road and pavement from last years torturous route.

Helen and I on race morning ready to rock!

The resulting hellish pain-fest consisted of 102.8 miles of either extremely technical single track, or impossibly steep black diamond ski runs with a couple of very short – I’m talking less than a half mile – of flat fire road or paved road logistically required to link one brutal punishment to the next. The 36 hour cut-off time is one of the longest there is, and according to finishing times, most runners needed every minute allotted. .

Helen and I woke up at 4:45 am on Saturday morning, downed a couple of coffees, ate a bagel and headed down to the race start at hope lake park near the town of Virgil, in upstate New York. Helen was apprehensive, as this was her first 50 mile ultramarathon, and I was just plain dreading it in a way because this was to be my third attempt at running 100 miles and I was very familiar with the inevitable pain and misery that I was about to voluntarily subject myself to.

Ready to race!

This isn’t to say that I wasn’t actually looking forward to it in a way. My two-week taper had me feeling fat and sluggish and I was looking forward to hitting the trails. I felt ready to tackle Virgil Crest 100, as I had trained the entire summer for it, logging about twice as many training miles as last summers two attempts at making it through the big 100.

My first shot at completing a hundred mile ultramarathon was Sinister 7 in the Crowsnest Pass area of Alberta in July of 2009. I was forced to abandon at 70 miles due to extreme blisters on my feet. My second attempt was the Lost Sole ultra in Lethbridge, Alberta, and again I dropped out after 50 miles due to inadequate planning – I departed on a rather long leg shortly before sundown without a jacket. I got hypothermic and when I eventually made it back to the aid station, I had made up my mind to check-out and I dropped.

This years Virgil Crest ultra boasted 32 runners registered in the 100 mile race and another 44 registered for the 50 mile race – a growth of over 25 percent from last year.  At 6:00 am sharp, we collectively passed between two fire torches that marked the start line at hope lake park.

The first leg was deceptively reasonable – a wide track through the forest with modest grades, but never flat. We were running with our head lamps and I remember thinking that it wasn’t that hard to see the trail at night and falsely thinking that this could be typical of the remainder of the course. I was way wrong.

My legs didn’t feel good. I think that I over shot my taper by easing up too much on my running volume in the two weeks leading up to this race. My feet were getting numb, and my hamstrings were tight and sore. I wasn’t concerned because I knew that in a few hours everything would be functioning normally as it always does – and did.

I reached the first aid station at 5.4 miles feeling confident, but the next 5.4 mile leg shattered that confidence. The reasonable trail through the forest had turned into a nasty, twisting, technical single track route littered with roots, stubs, steep climbs, creek crossings and many navigational challenges. By now, the sun was up, but in the dense forest, it still seemed like night time. I was thinking that this was going to be a bitch in the middle of the night. The course was well marked with reflective markers and white painted “blazes” on many of the trees, and was fairly easy to follow in the light of the day. I was worried about staying on course after dark – and not stepping off the edge of the trail and falling 50 feet to the creek below.

I reached the 2nd aid station known as “Lifthouse 5″ thankful that I had made it through the challenging part of the course.

After swallowing a few cookies and other goodies at LH5, I set out to conquer the Greekpeak loop – a 3.9 mile loop that climbed Greekpeak ski hill twice and retued to LF5. YIKES! Gone was the technical single track which was replaced by impossibly steep black diamond climbs and descents, relentlessly, up and down the ski hill. The loop was only 3.9 miles, but it took me over an hour to complete.

One of the reasons I run ultras is that I love getting to meet and know some very interesting people. This race was no exception. During the Greekpeak loop, I got to know ultra runner master Ken Posner who has finished ten 100 mile ultras. I do believe in “meaningful coincidences” but our connection was kind of bizarre.

Lately I have been devouring a genre of books about the recent financial crisis caused by the sub prime mortgage collapse. My keen interest in this subject matter stems mostly from my re-entry into the world of derivatives trading. I am very interested in learning all about the causes of our current economic situation and have been voraciously reading every book about the crash published.

The one un-read book that is still on my short list is called “Stalking the Black Swan“. It is especially interesting to me because as a technical systems trader, I am exposed to sudden statistical aberrations otherwise known as crashes or “Black Swans”. The book was written by none other than my new ultra running buddy Kenneth Posner. Needless to say, we had a lot to talk about!

Anyhow – back to the ultra:

After returning to LH5 I was looking forward to some sane, relatively flat trail running for the remainder of the 50 mile out and back course – which I would repeat to total 100 miles.

Now, I must admit that I didn’t read any of race director Ian Golden’s course description. If I had, then I would have known that this imaginary fantasy of mine consisting of a wide open, soft pine needle trail with gentle grades, singing birds, breathtaking vistas, and yes – even Bambi – was pure fiction.

The next 2 legs after the GreekPeak loop – 6 miles, then 5 miles were carbon copies of leg 2 – dark, twisted, scary technical creations from the mind of a mad, ultra running scientist -  race director Ian Golden. Pure evil.

I made it to the turn around aid station misleadingly named “Daisey hollow” (There were no Daisies and Bambi was nowhere in sight), in 6 hours, 15 minutes. This was exactly 1/4 of the total distance – a thought that I found somewhat discouraging, so I refused to think about it. When I do these kind of endurance events, I’ve learned that I need to focus on the here and now. The thought of the incredible distance and effort that remains is far too depressing.

My 25 mile return to the start line was actually good. The weird pains in my legs had dissipated and I was adjusting to the cruel reality of this course and the task ahead. I completed the first 50 miles in 13 hours, 36 minutes which converted to a 27 hour finishing time in my deluded, overly optimistic mind.

The second loop started out great and I was feeling good up to about mid Greekpeak when a healthy and cleansing period of farting ended with a rather surprising wet one.

I need to issue a warning here, as I am about to get a bit graphic. I’m not going to pull any punches.  I want you to. “enjoy” the entire experience as it actually happened. If you have a weak stomach then you might want to consider skipping the next few paragraphs.

As you might have gathered, I made a quick dash into the woods to empty my bowels – otherwise known as a bowel movement, or more accurately in this particular case, known as diarrhea. Luckily, I was wearing my jacket and had stashed a wrap of TP in a pocket – just in case.

On way way down from Greekpeak summit I returned to the woods another 3 times exhausting my supply of TP. When I arrived back at the Lifthouse5 aid station, I visited the porta pottie and replenished my TP supply and enjoyed another helping of bean casadias with hot pumpkin soup which I had so enjoyed my first three times passing through lifthouse 5 aid station.

I was becoming very concerned about my GI issues as I woofed down a second helping of bean cassadias and a steaming hot cup of bean and lentil soup. What on earth could be causing this?

OK, maybe this isn’t rocket surgery, but you have to realize that most of my blood, at the time, was in my legs and probably my stomach trying to deal with all the legumes and fibre I was consuming – not, obviously in my brain.

After my re-fueling stop at LH5, I headed back out toward my next stop at the rockpile aid station – 6 miles of extreme technical single track through dense forest in the dark.

That’s is one spooky place at night. Very cool and I was enjoying it. I discovered that staying on course was easy, as the light from my headlamp reflecting off of the blazes made finding my track effortless.

I was feeling pretty good and my stomach was behaving. I saw two eyes in the forest reflect back and I stopped. The animal stopped and stared back. When it turned sideways I could make out a shape that was about the size of a large cat, but totally white. Could have been a coyote, but it may have been a bobcat – very cool!

Then I started farting again. Normally, during an ultra endurance event, the releasing of intestinal gas is a good, happy feeling. But when that process continues for 30 minutes and ends with another surprising wet one, that’s not a good sign. Another dash into the woods and I’d better start rationing my TP stash. A few minutes later with my stomach not feeling very happy at all, I made another mad dash into the forest and exhausted my precious TP supply.

I was not feeling good at this point. Without getting into a ton of needless gross detail here – let’s just say that over the next few hours, I became somewhat of an expert on leaves of the Virgil Crest forest as suitable replacement for toilet paper.

The leaves on most of the deciduous tress are quite suitable, but only in a stack of at least 5. Skip the leaves with holes from bugs eating through and always shake each leaf well to shed any insects. Warning: during the Autumn season, you must be suspicious of any leave that could be close to changing color. When they change, they get brittle and your fingers can break through the leaf (as I learned).  If the leaves are any smaller than 3 inches wide, they would be from an immature tree and are just two small to properly serve your purpose. These leaves are temptingly soft and moist, and are usually the last to dry up in the fall, but you are best advised to walk away.

I learned that there was one kind of rare plant with very large leafs and this was always my best choice.  But in this forest, they were very hard to find. The fruit of this particular bush was a large, fresh, soft leaf, still a bit dewy on the underside. Discovering this gem at the exact right time was like finding a goldmine.

Back to the race: the 6 mile leg from LH5 to rockpile aid station was hell. With every detour into the bush, I was loosing energy. I was completely drained. It took me over 4 hours to finally make it to Rockpile aid station where I decided to throw in the towel after running 70 miles. And I was starting to limp, as I had continuously stubbed by right toe on invisible tree stumps and roots. After my 12th stub, it felt like kicking a tree stump as hard as you could – repeatedly.

Quitting is never an easy decision. In this case, I really felt that there was no other alternative, as I was just too weak and drained and dehydrated due to my stomach problems. At the rate I was going, it would have taken me an additional 24 hours to complete the remaining 30 miles.

As I crossed the road near Rockpile aid station, a runner from one of the relay teams asked if I was OK. She was waiting in her van for another team member to arrive at the checkpoint. I asked her if she could give me a lift back. She phoned Ian and informed him of my dropped status and kindly drove me back to my hotel.

In the end, 18 of the 30 registered in the 100 finished including Ken. Helen had a great race and successfully completed her first 50 mile ultramarathon. 33 of the 50 racers registered for the 50 mile finished.

I must commend evil race director Ian Golden for organizing a fantastic event. The course exceeded my expectations regarding the level of challenge, and the event was very well planned. The volunteers at the aid stations were friendly, encouraging and helpful. I would not hesitate to recommend this race to anyone looking for a serious challenge.

Note to self: stay away from the bean soup and bean casadias next time.

Post race - I'm toasted!