AFRINVEST WEST AFRICA LIMITED

2013-01-15T16:59:00.000+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Tuesday,15^th January, 2013)

Market Cap (N'bn)	9,494.55
Market Cap (US$'bn)	60.47
NSE All-Share Index	29,686.94
Daily Performance %	1.29
1 Week Performance %	2.52
YTD Performance %	5.73
Daily Volume (Million)	822.69
Daily Value (N'bn)	5.07
Daily Value (US$'m)	32.28

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All share index gained 129 bps today.

· Activities in the banking sector were skewed to the buy side with most companies in the sector recording gains and UBN diverging with a 1.1% loss. UBA was the top gainer however the surge also spurred profit taking activities and could limit appreciation tomorrow. Diamond Bank, Sterling Bank and Fidelity Bank also booked over 7.0% at the close of the session.

· The breweries sector was also on the up-tick; NB recovered from yesterday’s loss with a 1.6% mark-up closing demand would likely provide support in coming sessions. Guinness also recorded a slim 6 kobo mark-up while International Breweries recorded no change.

· Transcorp consolidated on previous gains with a further 2.7% mark-up, A.G. Leventis and UACN also closed on the up-tick with gains of 4.9% and 0.9%. On the flip side Johnholt and Unilever lost 4.6% and 2.2%.

2013-01-14T18:32:00.003+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Monday,14^th January, 2013)

Market Cap (N'bn)	9,373.90
Market Cap (US$'bn)	59.92
NSE All-Share Index	29,309.69
Daily Performance %	0.37
1 Week Performance %	0.76
YTD Performance %	4.38
Daily Volume (Million)	474.11
Daily Value (N'bn)	3.52
Daily Value (US$'m)	22.47

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All share index gained 37 bps today.

· The week started off on a positive note in the banking sector, with mid-tier banks at the fore; Fidelity Bank booked a 4.0% mark-up on the back of growing demand. FCMB, UBN and Sterling Bank also picked up 2.8%, 2.7% and 2.3% apiece. Top-tier banks however recorded slimmer gains as buyers appeared cautious and unwilling to bid significantly above current levels.

· The building materials sector was in line with current sentiments, though recording no change at the close of the session, Dangote Cement was skewed to the buy side. Ashaka Cement, Lafarge Wapco and CCNN however recorded gains of 0.1%, 2.8% and 4.9% respectively.

· The food and beverages sector was split evenly between the gainers and losers today, while Dangote Flour, Nascon and Dangote Sugar headed south with losses of 0.9%, 1.0% and 1.4%. Honeywell Flour, Cadbury and Flourmills closed on the up-tick with gains of 2.7%, 2.4% and 0.9% respectively.

2013-01-03T10:02:00.005+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Wednesday,2^nd January, 2013)

Market Cap (N'bn)	9,109.46
Market Cap (US$'bn)	58.32
NSE All-Share Index	28,501.21
Daily Performance %	1.50
1 Week Performance %	2.75
YTD Performance %	37.48
Daily Volume (Million)	175.99
Daily Value (N'bn)	1.88
Daily Value (US$'m)	12.05

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 150bps today.

· Demand for stocks in the banking sector led to gains for most companies in the sector, Zenith Bank and Wema Bank were the only companies divergent to the bullish trend in the sector today, posting losses of 0.5% and 1.9%. Mid-tier banks however were top-gainers with Skye Bank, FCMB and Diamond Bank picking up points in excess of 9.0% apiece..

· The food and beverages sector was also on the up-tick today recording no losses at the close of the session. Dangote Sugar recorded the largest gain in the sector, up by 7.1%. Nascon and UTC also picked up 4.8% and 4.0% respectively while Dangote Flour and Honeywell recorded slimmer gains.

· Ashaka Cement and CCNN both closed on the up-tick today with appreciation of 2.5% and 0.9% respectively. Lafarge Wapco however lost 1.7% while Dangote cement was flat..

2012-12-18T19:38:00.001+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Tuesday,18^th December, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,767.01
Market Cap (US$'bn)	55.51
NSE All-Share Index	27,437.75
Daily Performance %	(0.20)
1 Week Performance %	1.43
YTD Performance %	32.35
Daily Volume (Million)	255.80
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.72
Daily Value (US$'m)	17.22

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index lost 20bps today.

· The dip in FBN Holdings yesterday led to a surge in demand and a corresponding appreciation of 1.6%, closing sentiments suggests that this trend could continue tomorrow. Also on the up-tick were Stanbic IBTC Holding, Union Bank and Zenith Bank. GTBank was sent tumbling during the session with a 3.8% loss while UBA also dropped 1.1%

· Last minute purchases curbed the loss suffered by NB during the session, re-entries tomorrow could also prevent further losses. International Breweries however consolidated on previous gains with a further 5.6% mark-up, while Guinness recorded no change.

· Dangote Cement was skewed to the buy side today, though recording no change at the close of the session. On the other hand, Lafarge Wapco and CCNN were skewed to the sell side with losses of 3.2% and 1.8% apiece.

2012-12-14T18:27:00.005+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Friday, 14^t^h December, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,846.18
Market Cap (US$'bn)	56.06
NSE All-Share Index	27,685.54
Daily Performance %	0.08
1 Week Performance %	3.80
YTD Performance %	33.55
Daily Volume (Million)	228.64
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.09
Daily Value (US$'m)	13.26

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 8bps today.

· The banking sector was split evenly between gainers and losers, with recoveries by Skye Bank and Zenith Bank during proceedings. However GTBank and UBA lost points during the session dropping 6.3% and 1.8% respectively. FBN Holding and Access Bank also headed south with losses of 0.6% and 0.5%.

· Transcorp was the lone gainer in the conglomerates sector today, with a 4.6% mark-up and closing sentiments that could lift the price further early next week. On the other hand, UACN and PZ Cussons headed south with a downward review of prices by buyers.

· The petroleum marketing sector was also on the up-tick today, Oando rallied at the close of the session with a clearance of available offers leading to maximum gains. Eterna OIl and Forte Oil also recorded gains of 1.0% and 0.2%.

Weekly Trading Summary

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 380bps this week.

· Bullish sentiments held sway for the better part of the week in the banking sector; UBA and Access Bank were the only companies that dropped points this week. Fidelity Bank was up 10.5% with healthy demand during daily sessions, Sterling Bank and GTBank also recorded 7.0% and 6.2% cumulative gains this week, while FBN Holding and Zenith Bank recorded slimmer gains.

· The breweries sector had a good showing this week with insatiable demand for NB leading to a 14.9% mark-up closing at N165.00 with sentiments likely to firm it up further next week. Guinness also picked up 9.9% while International Breweries inched up slightly.

· The food and beverages sector was in line with market trend, Nestle surged with a 7.5% gain though the current spike spurred some participants to exit at the close of the week. 7up, Nascon , Cadbury and Dangote Sugar were also on the up-tick with gains ranging from 1.0% to 10.0%.

Company Announcements

· Prestige Assurance released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

· Total Nigeria Plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

· Berger Paints Nigeria Plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

· 7 UP Bottling Company released its Q4 2013 forecast result.

· Presco Plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

· Okomu oil Plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

· Continental Reinsurance plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result

2012-12-14T09:16:00.002+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Thursday,13^th December, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,839.14
Market Cap (US$'bn)	56.09
NSE All-Share Index	27,663.51
Daily Performance %	0.54
1 Week Performance %	4.21
YTD Performance %	33.44
Daily Volume (Million)	464.23
Daily Value (N'bn)	3.73
Daily Value (US$'m)	23.65

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 54bps today.

· The rally in the market was boosted by NB as it picked 5.8% to close at N162.00, closing demand will probably support this trend tomorrow. Guinness also closed on the up-tick with a 4.0% mark-up; however N260.00 appears to be its current peak with participants unwilling to bid above this price.

· In the banking sector, the bullish run of previous sessions led to sell offs during the day’s proceeding resulting in losses for FBN Holding and Zenith Bank. Diamond Bank and Skye Bank were not spared either as they lost 3.9% and 6.3% apiece. On the other hand GTBank and UBA closed on the up-tick picking up slim gains of 1.8% and 0.6%

· A 0.2% drop in Dangote Cement could not dampen the optimism in the market, while Ashaka cement also trended lower with a 0.6% loss. CCNN and Lafarge Wapco on the other hand were in line with market sentiments inching up 4.9% and 0.6% respectively.

Company Announcements

· Diamond bank Plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

· GlaxoSmithKline consumer Nigeria Plc released its Q1 2013 forecast result.

2012-12-06T18:20:00.003+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Thursday, 6^th December, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,446.89
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.72
NSE All-Share Index	26,546.20
Daily Performance %	0.42
1 Week Performance %	0.54
YTD Performance %	28.05
Daily Volume (Million)	192.10
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.44
Daily Value (US$'m)	15.49

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 42bps today.

· Stanbic IBTC Holding maintained a relatively stable posture for a consecutive session, leaving bargain hunters in a disappointing state for not getting their fill at the N10.64 mark. An upward review in bids, would indeed be necessary for sizeable supply volumes to emerge. GTBank, FBN Holding and Zenith Bank closed in positive territory with sizeable volumes in trades. Drawing an inference from today’s trading pattern, all three are likely to hold on to their values despite tomorrow being a Friday. Sterling Bank, UBA, Union Bank, FCMB closed relatively on a flat note.

· Guinness again held steady, however, trades executed today were done far above its closing price of N241.10. Prospective bids would probably need to move beyond the N250.00 mark to have their fill. NB added N2.11 to its value to close at N142.11; institutional interest would probably prop up its value in subsequent sessions.

· Ashaka Cement went for a 5.O% market correction to close down at N18.05. No bids were available as at the close of the session. Dangote Cement on the other hand traded paltry volumes as offers were relatively sparse.

Company Announcements

· Thomas Wyatt Nigeria plc released its Q3 2012 result.

· Pharma Deko plc released its Q3 2012 result.

· Guinea Insurance plc released its Q3 2012 result.

2012-12-04T19:14:00.007+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Tuesday, 4^th December, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,429.24
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.62
NSE All-Share Index	26,382.54
Daily Performance %	0.01
1 Week Performance %	0.60
YTD Performance %	27.26
Daily Volume (Million)	239.44
Daily Value (N'bn)	1.88
Daily Value (US$'m)	11.98

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index inched up with 1bp to close at 26,382.54 today.

· Afromedia emerged top on the volume traded list with 32.9million units of its shares exchanging hands in purely “cross deal” transactions.

· Access Bank recovered from yesterday’s loss to post a 3.0% recovery closing at N8.96. Union Bank, UBA and Sterling Bank all recorded healthy gains of 1.4%, 4.2% & 4.8% respectively. Conversely Skye Bank, Stanbic IBTC Holding and FCMB, closed on a negative note. However the likes of Fidelity Bank, FBN Holding, Diamond Bank and Zenith Bank maintained a relatively stable posture.

· Nestle and Guinness continued to enjoy patronage from market participants with little offers at lower price ranges necessitating an upward review of N6.18 and N1.10 in their respective prices. NB on the other hand slid by N1.99 as trades that poured in at closing stages of the session kept the possibility of gains at bay..

Company Announcements

· The Minister for Finance announced a waiver of stamp duties and exemption of VAT on stock exchange transactions in recent efforts to resuscitate the Nigerian Capital Market.

2012-12-04T19:14:00.001+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Tuesday, 4^th December, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,429.24
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.62
NSE All-Share Index	26,382.54
Daily Performance %	0.01
1 Week Performance %	0.60
YTD Performance %	27.26
Daily Volume (Million)	239.44
Daily Value (N'bn)	1.88
Daily Value (US$'m)	11.98

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index inched up with 1bp to close at 26,382.54 today.

· Afromedia emerged top on the volume traded list with 32.9million units of its shares exchanging hands in purely “cross deal” transactions.

Company Announcements

· The Minister for Finance announced a waiver of stamp duties and exemption of VAT on stock exchange transactions in recent efforts to resuscitate the Nigerian Capital Market.

2012-11-28T19:37:00.003+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Wednesday,28^th November, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,379.90
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.17
NSE All-Share Index	26,226.25
Daily Performance %	(0.52)
1 Week Performance %	(0.29)
YTD Performance %	26.51
Daily Volume (Million)	168.47
Daily Value (N'bn)	1.28
Daily Value (US$'m)	8.10

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All share index lost 52bps today.

· Transcorp topped the volume traded list with an excess of 63.0million units exchanging hands, followed by Access Bank and Bagco with 15.4million and 12.2million units respectively.

· Zenith Bank, down from the previous session was able to secure a marginal lift of 30bps, it however appeared to have some level of support at the N16.40 mark. GT Bank held steady to close on a relatively flat note, as offers were mainly pegged at the N19.80-N19.90 range. Access Bank despite trading robustly, had its gains limited by volumes stacked at the N9.00 mark. FBN Holding had demand interest shore its share price up by 1.9% to close at N14.83, however closing bids suggests a comfort level of N14.70.

· A dearth of supply volumes at lower limits ensured that both Nestle and NB secured healthy gains for the day. A trend that is likely to continue in tomorrow’s session.

2012-11-26T18:55:00.003+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Monday,26^th November, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,392.79
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.25
NSE All-Share Index	26,360.55
Daily Performance %	0.15
1 Week Performance %	0.35
YTD Performance %	27.16
Daily Volume (Million)	237.18
Daily Value (N'bn)	1.55
Daily Value (US$'m)	9.84

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 15bps today.

· The banking sector started off the week on a quiet note; Companies in the sector were skewed to the sell side with the exception of UBN and UBA that recorded appreciation of 8.2% and 1.8% respectively on the back of growing demand that could lead to further gains tomorrow.

· NB was on the up-tick today crossing over the N140.01 mark and picking up 1.4%, Guinness also recovered from last week‘s bearish sentiment though with very slim appreciation, closing demand however outweighed offers and should provide support at the current level..

· In the In the building materials sector, Ashaka Cement closed on the up-tick as it picked up 3.7%, CCNN however went south with a 3.5% loss though bids and offers were fairly matched. Dangote Cement and Lafarge Wapco were flat recording no change at the close of the session.

Company Announcements

· Great Nigeria Insurance plc released its FY 2011 result.

2012-11-26T10:22:00.002+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Friday, 23^rd November, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,380.57
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.20
NSE All-Share Index	26,322.17
Daily Performance %	0.20
1 Week Performance %	(0.30)
YTD Performance %	26.97
Daily Volume (Million)	164.15
Daily Value (N'bn)	1.64
Daily Value (US$'m)	10.38

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 20 bps today.

· Sentiments for top –tier banks remained skewed to the sell side resulting in more losses for GTBank, First Bank, Zenith Bank and UBA. On the up-tick however were Unity Bank, Access Bank and FCMB with gains of 4.0%, 3.4% and 1.8% respectively.

· Ashaka Cement did not recover from initial selling pressure, as it dropped 1.4% in spite of improved demand later in the session. Lafarge Wapco however was up 0.1% with robust demand at N58.00 leading to a modest upward review of its price. CCNN and Dangote Cement were also skewed to the buy side though recording no change at the close of the session..

· UACN closed on the uptick with a 2.7% mark-up, also on the up-tick in the conglomerates sector were Unilever and Transcorp picking up 1.8% and 1.0% respectively.

Weekly Trading Summary

· The NSE All-Share Index lost 30bps this week.

· Participants thread on the side of caution this week in the banking sector, resulting in more losses than gains in the sector this week. Top-tier banks hovered around current support levels, though selling pressure during the week led to losses ranging from 0.2% to 5.8%. On the other hand; Access Bank, FCMB and Diamond Bank edged up this week booking cumulative gains of 5.2%, 3.3% and 2.4% respectively.

· The food and beverages sector was split evenly between gainers and losers this week. Cadbury, a top favorite in the sector was up 5.4% while Dangote Flour, Flour Mills and Dangote Sugar also recorded gains of 2.4%, 5.3% and 5.5% respectively. On the flip side, Honeywell Flour lost 9.5% while NNFM and Nascon shed 5.0% and 4.1%.

Company Announcements

· Mutual Benefits Assurance plc released its FY 2011 results.

· Beco petroleum products released its FY 2011 results.

· Standard Alliance Insurance released its FY 2011 results.

· The NSE announced that a new code as been created for Stanbic Ibtc holdings plc, the new code is STANBIC and the listing price is N13.03

2012-11-08T09:12:00.002+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Wednesday,7^th November, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,537.90
Market Cap (US$'bn)	54.31
NSE All-Share Index	26,792.27
Daily Performance %	0.26
1 Week Performance %	1.37
YTD Performance %	29.24
Daily Volume (Million)	212.90
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.36
Daily Value (US$'m)	15.03

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index gained 26bps today.

· Top tier banks were on the up-tick today, a slight pull back on offers by sellers led to modest gains of 0.8%, 1.4% and 2.1% for GTBank, Zenith Bank and UBA. First Bank however dropped 0.9% as yesterday’s recovery appears to have spurred selling sentiments, closing bids and offers were fairly matched at the close of the session

· Dangote Cement booked a 0.9% gain on the back of crossed deals; buyers subsequently reviewed their prices upwards in response to the crossed deal with closing bid at N121.25. Lafarge Wapco also closed on the up-tick picking up 0.8% while CCNN dropped a further 2.2%.

· In other sectors, a clearance of available offers early in the session led to maximum gains for Oando today, closing at limit up. NB also picked up 1.6% as it closed at N136.20 with growing demand likely to sustain this trend.

Company Announcements

· Tantalizers plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Red Star Express plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Ipwa plc released its FY 2011 results.

· Ellah Lakes plc released its FY 2012 results.

2012-10-31T18:54:00.001+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Wednesday, 31^st October, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,422.74
Market Cap (US$'bn)	53.60
NSE All-Share Index	26,430.92
Daily Performance %	(1.15)
1 Week Performance %	(1.66)
YTD Performance %	27.50
Daily Volume (Million)	279.43
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.27
Daily Value (US$'m)	14.47

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index lost 115bps.

· Bearish sentiments trimmed off additional points from First Bank, GTBank and UBA posting losses of 0.5%, 1.0% and 4.6% respectively. Zenith Bank however recovered today as it headed back to N18.00 and recorded a 0.1% mark-up. IBTC, Access Bank and UBN also closed on the up-tick recording gains of 1.4%, 2.3% and 4.3% respectively.

· The Food and beverages sector also went to the bears today; Q3 numbers for Cadbury and Nestle announced during the session did not change current bearish sentiments as both lost 3.4% and 2.1% to close at N28.00 and N675.00 respectively. Dangote Flour, Flourmills and Dangote sugar were also not spared with losses of 1.2%, 0.8% and 0.6%.

· NB dropped a further 6.8% as demand for the stock shrunk towards the end of the day’s proceeding; this recent correction could spur demand in coming sessions. Guinness however picked up 0.2% today.

Company Announcements

· Total Nigeria plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· UAC of Nigeria plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Stanbic IBTC Bank plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· AIICO Insurance plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Eterna plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Union Ventures & Petroleum plc released its Q3 2012 results.

Nestle Nigeria plc released its Q3 2012 results

2012-10-30T09:00:00.002+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Monday, 29^th October, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,598.53
Market Cap (US$'bn)	54.70
NSE All-Share Index	26,982.55
Daily Performance %	0.40
1 Week Performance %	(1.06)
YTD Performance %	30.16
Daily Volume (Million)	273.08
Daily Value (N'bn)	3.01
Daily Value (US$'m)	19.17

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index lost 106bps

· Top-tier banks recovered from bearish sentiments of the previous week as a surge in demand for UBA, Zenith Bank, First Bank and GTBank led to appreciation of 3.1%, 2.9%, 1.8% and 0.5% respectively. Unity Bank also remained on the up-tick with a 4.6% mark-up and an unsatisfied demand at limit up that could lead to further gains tomorrow. Profit taking however trimmed off 3.1% from Wema Bank.

· Positive reaction trailed Q3 results announced by Ashaka Cement during the session though recording no change at the close of the session, it closed with unsatisfied demand at limit up. Lafarge Wapco however lost 0.7% while others in the sector recorded no change.

· The Conglomerates sector however went to the bears, A.G. Leventis and Transcorp lost 4.7%, 4.6% respectively while Unilever dipped slightly. PZ Cussons was however divergent to the bearish trend picking up 4.1% at the close of proceedings.

Company Announcements

· Berger paints plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Ashaka Cement plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Oando plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Mansard plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· First City Monument Bank plc released its Q3 2012 results

· R.T Briscoe (Nigeria) plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Red Star Express released its Q1 2012 results.

· Guinea Insurance plc released its FY 2012 results.

2012-10-29T12:22:00.000+01:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Please find below our Weekly Update for the week ended 26^th October, 2012.

Key Highlights: -

Macroeconomic /Socio-Political Update

· The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) revealed that Nigeria's oil production dropped from an average of 2.5 million bpd in H1 2012 to an average between 2.1 and 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, following flooding and a major outage on a Shell facility.

· Oando has begun production of about 2,000 barrels per day from the Ebendo-4 well, increasing its total output by 40 percent.

Equity Market Review & Outlook

· Sentiments were generally bearish on Global Equities last week: All European stocks fell last week, with the biggest loss of -2.0% recorded by France and Germany respectively.

· We expect further profit taking activities in the Nigerian equity market this week.

Money Market Review & Outlook

· The money market closed in liquid territory last week, despite sizeable outflows for two WDAS auctions during the three-day week. Interbank rates subsequently inched up week-on-week, with emphasis on the short-end.

· We expect money market rates to head further north albeit marginally by the end of the week.

Foreign Exchange Market Review & Outlook

· The CBN offered US$300.0m but sold US$293.0m at the WDAS last week – US$150.0m and US$143.0m at Monday and Wednesdays auctions respectively.

· We expect to see marginal gains for the Naira across markets this week.

Bond Market Review & Outlook

· Mixed sentiments were recorded in the FGN bond market last week, with price increments on all short tenured instruments (ex the 5yr 4.00% FGN APR 2015 and 7yr 9.20% FGN JUN 2014).

· We expect bullish sentiments to persist on Nigeria’s Eurobond this week.

2012-10-24T20:35:00.000+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Wednesday, 24^th October, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,564.60
Market Cap (US$'bn)	54.43
NSE All-Share Index	26,876.07
Daily Performance %	(1.45)
1 Week Performance %	(0.86)
YTD Performance %	29.64
Daily Volume (Million)	267.38
Daily Value (N'bn)	3.11
Daily Value (US$'m)	19.77

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index today lost 145 bps.

· Lukewarm demand for First Bank early in the session quickly led to a plunge in its price, shedding 4.7% and trading as low as N15.80 during proceedings. Zenith Bank and UBA did not fare better with losses of 3.3% and 4.4% respectively

· Wema Bank and Unity Bank were however divergent to bearish sentiments in the banking sector picking up 4.9% and 4.8% apiece with closing demand that could lead to further gains early next week. UBN also gained 1.1% to close at N7.73

· Tepid response trailed the Q3 results announced by Dangote Sugar subsequently recording no change at the close of the session though available offers outweighed demand at the close of the session. Nascon however rallied with a 4.4% gain in response to offers at the higher end of the market recording the only positive change in the sector today.

2012-10-24T16:07:00.000+02:00

EXCLUSIVE-Nigeria loses billions in cut price oil deals-report

ABUJA, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Nigeria lost out on tens of billions of dollars in oil and gas revenues over the last decade from cut price deals struck between multinational oil companies and government officials, a confidential report seen by Reuters says.

A team headed by the former head of the anti-corruption agency Nuhu Ribadu produced the 146-page study on an oil ministry request. It covers the year 2002 to the present.

Nigeria is Africa's largest crude oil exporter, shipping more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd), and is also home to the world's ninth biggest gas reserves and one of its largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export terminals.

The report provides new details on Nigeria's long history of corruption in the oil sector, which has enriched its elite and provided the oil majors with hefty profits while two thirds of people live in poverty.

Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke told Reuters on Tuesday she had received the report last month but that it was a draft and the government was still supposed to give input. The one seen by Reuters was labelled "Final Report."

The report concluded that oil majors Shell, Total and Eni made bumper profits from cut-price gas, while Nigerian oil ministers handed out licences at their own discretion. This, while not illegal, did not follow best practice of using open bids. Hundreds of millions of dollars in signature bonuses on those deals were also missing, it said.

"We have not seen this report and are, therefore, unable to comment on the content, but we will study it if and when it is published," a Shell spokesman said.

The report alleges international oil traders sometimes buy crude without any formal contracts, and the state oil firm had short-changed the Nigerian treasury billions over the last 10 years by selling crude oil and gas to itself below market rates.

There was no suggestion that the oil majors or traders had done anything illegal, but the report highlighted a lack of transparency in their dealings in a nation rife with graft.

"It is a draft," Alison-Madueke said. "There will be some areas where the government ... may have a slightly different opinion ... (and) will put its point of view to the committee."

She said she expects the final report to be with President Goodluck Jonathan within two weeks.

MISSING BILLIONS

Ribadu's probe was among several set up following a week of nationwide strikes against a rise in fuel prices in January, which morphed into a campaign against oil corruption.

Billions of dollars of revenue was missing in unpaid debts from signature bonuses and royalties, the report found.

Nigeria LNG, a company jointly owned by the NNPC, Shell, Total and Eni had paid the country for gas at cut-down prices before exporting it to international markets, the report said.

Total and Eni declined to comment because they invest in but do not operate Nigeria LNG, the role played by Shell.

"The estimated cumulative of the deficit between value obtainable on the international market and what is currently being obtained from NLNG, over the 10 year period, amounts to approximately $29 billion," the report said.

It also said foreign oil firms had outstanding debts.

Addax, now a unit of China's state-owned Sinopec, owes Nigeria $1.5 billion in unpaid royalties, part of a $3 billion black hole of unpaid bonuses and royalties owed by oil firms.

Addax did not respond to requests for comment, but the report noted it disputes owing the signature bonuses.

Shell owes Nigeria's government 137.57 billion naira ($874 million) for gas sold from its Bonga deep offshore field, the report said, while oil majors owed $58 million between them for gas flaring penalties. They were also not adhering to newer higher fines.

The probe also said Nigeria was the only nation to sell all its crude through international oil traders rather than directly to refineries, adding that such trades were often opaque.

INFORMAL TRADING

It said some international oil traders who were not "on the approved master list of customers" had been sold crude oil "without a formal contract" so little could be obtained about the details of these deals, which can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

"This logically will serve to reduce margins obtainable on sale of crude oil," the report said.

But Alison-Madueke disputed this, saying there are no informal contracts and there is "an official tender put out every year", which can be seen by the public in newspapers.

The state oil firm gets an allocation of 445,000 bpd of crude oil to refine locally but it has been selling itself this oil at cut-down prices, a practice which cost Nigeria $5 billion in potential revenue between 2002-2011, the report said.

"NNPC buys at international rates," Alison-Madueke retorted.

The report said the NNPC made 86.6 billion naira over the 10-year period by using overly generous exchange rates in its declarations to the government. There was no sign of the money.

Nigerian oil ministers between 2008-2011 handed out seven discretionary licences but there is $183 million in signature bonuses missing from the deals, the report said. Three of these oil licences were awarded since Alison-Madueke took up her position in 2010, according to the report.

"I have not given any discretionary awards during this administration," Alison-Madueke told Reuters, although she added that the president had the right to do so instead of using bids if he saw fit. "That is entirely up to him," she said.

Among the report's recommendations were that parts of NNPC be reorganised or scrapped, an independent review of the use of traders be set up and a transparency law be passed requiring oil companies to disclose all payments made to Nigeria.

U.S. regulators put new rules in place in August that will require U.S.-listed oil and gas companies to disclose payments they make to foreign governments like Nigeria.

2012-10-24T12:53:00.001+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Please find below our Research Note expressing our initial thoughts on the recently released Q3 2012 results by Access Bank Plc.

Access Bank recently made public its Q3 2012 unaudited results on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). The results exhibit impressive y-on-y growth in top and bottom line figures; Gross earnings were up 88.0% to N162.7bn from N86.3bn in Q3 2011, while Pre and post tax profits for the period also swelled year-on-year by 117.2% and 156.9% to N39.1bn and N35.1bn from N18.0bn and N13.7bn respectively. The Q3 12 review period has been turbulent for most banks, as interbank volatility exerted significant pressure on interest income.

Based on these results, Access Bank now trades at an average trailing P/E of 5.7x earnings, a significant discount to its peers, trading at an average trailing P/E of 8.0x earnings. The counter also trades at P/BV of 0.9x, versus a peer average trailing P/BV of 1.3x. We therefore maintain our BUY rating on the stock at the current market price..

2012-10-23T19:03:00.001+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Tuesday, 23^rd October, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,672.62
Market Cap (US$'bn)	55.12
NSE All-Share Index	27,217.27
Daily Performance %	(0.20)
1 Week Performance %	0.40
YTD Performance %	31.29
Daily Volume (Million)	247.92
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.70
Daily Value (US$'m)	17.18

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE All-Share Index lost 20bps.

· Sentiments in the banking sector, improved slightly today though still skewed to the sell side. On the up-tick were Wema Bank, Fidelity Bank, Unity Bank and Stanbic IBTC with price appreciation ranging from 0.6% to 3.4%. Top-tier banks Zenith Bank, GTBank and UBA however went south shedding, 1.6%, 1.4% and 0.4% respectively.

· Bullish sentiments firmed up the price of CCNN as it picked up 5.0% at the close of the session, however Ashaka Cement remained skewed to the sell side and subsequently dropped less than 1.0% while Dangote Cement and Lafarge Wapco recorded no change.

· In other sectors, Guinness rallied at the close of the session with a 1.9% mark-up, NB however lost 0.7% dropping to N138.00. Transcorp and PZ Cussons also went south with losses of 2.6% and 1.7% while others in the conglomerate sector recorded no change.

Company Announcements

· Unity Bank plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Presco Plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Austin Laz & Co Plc released its Q3 2012 results.

2012-10-22T20:26:00.000+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Monday, 22^nd October, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,690.24
Market Cap (US$'bn)	55.20
NSE All-Share Index	27,272.57
Daily Performance %	(0.09)
1 Week Performance %	0.72
YTD Performance %	31.56
Daily Volume (Million)	278.74
Daily Value (N'bn)	2.70
Daily Value (US$'m)	17.16

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE- All Share Index dipped by 9bps.

· The banking sector was skewed to the sell side during the day’s proceeding; Wema Bank and Zenith Bank were the only companies on the up-tick at the close of the session, with appreciation in the price of Zenith Bank possibly driven by Q3 results announced during the session. GTBank and First Bank closed relatively flat as both dropped 1kobo at the close of the session

· Lafarge Wapco and Ashaka Cement also in line with market trend were skewed to the sell side though recording no change at the close of the session. CCNN however was divergent to this trend picking up 0.8% while Dangote Cement hovering around N121.00 also recorded no change at the close of the session

· Fringe players were top gainers in the market today, DN Meyer led with a 9.9% mark-up while Custodian and Allied Insurance, Evans Medical and Portland Paints were also up by 5.7%, 5.0% and 4.8% respectively.

Company Announcements

· Zenith Bank plc released its Q3 2012 results.

· Skye Bank plc released its Q3 2012 results.

2012-10-22T13:32:00.000+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Please find below our Weekly Update for the week ended 19^th October, 2012.

Key Highlights: -

Macroeconomic /Socio-Political Update

· Inflation in Nigeria has eased for the third straight month to 11.3% percent year-on-year in September, down from its previous 11.7% year-on-year in August.

· Fitch Ratings has declared Nigeria’s Short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘B’. The Country’s Ceiling has been affirmed at ‘BB-’.

Equity Market Review & Outlook

· Sentiments were generally bullish on Global Equities last week; European and Asian stocks both fared well, with the biggest gain of 3.4% recorded by France CAC 40.

· We expect the Nigerian equity market to close in positive territory this week.

Money Market Review & Outlook

· FAAC credits for the month of September 2012 boosted liquidity in the money market last week, sending interbank rates south from an initial three day upward trajectory.

· We We expect money market rates to hover around current levels this week, in view of the current system liquidity.

Foreign Exchange Market Review & Outlook

· The CBN offered US$330.0m but sold US$312.2m at the WDAS last week – US$150.0m and US$162.2m at Monday and Wednesday’s auctions respectively

· We expect the Naira to lose further ground to the greenback at the interbank, BDC and parallel markets this week.

Bond Market Review & Outlook

· The FGN bond market swung in to bullish territory last week, as September’s liquidity inflows from FAAC resulted in drop in yields on all traded instruments (ex the 10yr 9.35% FGN AUG 2017).

· We expect bullish sentiments to persist on domestic fixed income instruments this week.

2012-10-19T20:09:00.002+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Market Statistics (Friday, 19^th October, 2012)

Market Cap (N'bn)	8,697.82
Market Cap (US$'bn)	55.24
NSE All-Share Index	27,296.35
Daily Performance %	0.09
1 Week Performance %	0.03
YTD Performance %	31.67
Daily Volume (Million)	313.29
Daily Value (N'bn)	3.20
Daily Value (US$'m)	20.31

Dealer’s Perception

· The NSE- All Share Index was slightly up by 9bps.

· Mixed sentiments trailed activities in the banking sector, with top tier banks split evenly between gainers and losers. GTBank and Zenith Bank recorded thin gains with most trades occurring around current levels, while First Bank and UBA dropped by 0.6% and 1.7% respectively.

· The food and beverage sector was upbeat with most companies in the sector closing on the up-tick. UTC and Cadbury booked 4.3% and 2.4% respectively ending up as top gainers on the list, while others lagged behind with slimmer appreciation. NASCON recorded the lone loss in the sector, shedding 0.7% with offers that outweighed demand which could lead to further losses early next week.

· The conglomerate sector was quiet, Transcorp recorded a 0.9% mark-up and was the only change in the sector today as others closed flat

Weekly Trading Summary

· The NSE All-Share Index inched up by 3bps week-on-week to close at 27,296.35.

· Profit taking during the week sent a few companies in the banking sector tumbling this week; Fidelity Bank, Sterling Bank and Diamond Bank all lost over 8.0% apiece, while UBA and FCMB lost 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. On the other hand Unity Bank and Wema Bank were top gainers, picking up 14.8% and 9.6% respectively.

· Dangote Cement was the only company in positive territory at the close of the week in the building materials sector; Lafarge Wapco, CCNN and Ashaka Cement dropped 1.7%, 8.4% and 9.1% cumulatively.

· The breweries sector also went to the bears this week with Guinness shedding 5.9% while NB and International Breweries lost 2.2% and 2.7% respectively.

Company Announcement

· Access Bank Plc released its Q3 2012 results.

2012-10-16T15:47:00.002+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Please find below our Research Note expressing our initial thoughts on the recently released Q3 2012 results by UBA Plc.

UBA recently announced its unaudited Q3 2012 results; the lender recorded a 21.4% (y-o-y) growth in Gross Earnings to N168.2bn from N138.5bn in Q3 2011, while pre and post tax profits accelerated by 376.1% and 429.7% from N9.4bn and N7.4bn in Q3 2011 to N44.9bn and N39.1bn respectively. A further breakdown of the results on a quarterly basis, show that Q3 2012 contributed 34.0% to Gross Earnings, marginally better than the 33.9% grossed in Q2 and 6.2% more than the N53.9bn in Q1 2012.

The growth in non-interest income (driven primarily by income from trading, fees and commission) was largely responsible for the improvement in UBA’s top line (21.9% y-on-y growth), while the drop in margins can be credited to a 19.0% increase in operating expenses (driven by other operating expenses) between Q3 2012 and Q3 2011 compared to the 13.9% rise in operating income over the same period.

UBA now trades at a P/BV of 0.9x, a 37.2% discount to its peer average of 1.4x with an ROAE 27.1%. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a 12month price target of N7.67, representing a 35.8% upside on the current market price of N5.65.

2012-10-15T13:36:00.000+02:00

Dear Afrinvestor,

Please find below our Weekly Update for the week ended 12^th October, 2012.

Key Highlights: -

Macroeconomic /Socio-Political Update

· A N4.93 trillion (US$31.35bn) budget was presented last week by President Goodluck Jonathan to the National Assembly for the year 2013.

· A force majeure was declared by the Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) on its gas supply after attacks on a pipeline by suspected crude oil thieves that caused a fire.

Equity Market Review & Outlook

· Equities recorded mixed performances globally. All European stocks fell last week, with the biggest loss of 2.2% recorded by Germany’s Xertra Dax.

· We expect positive sentiments will persist in the Nigerian equity market this week, with possible profit taking activities by friday.

Money Market Review & Outlook

· Liquidity levels dipped at the money market last week, as a combination of NNPC debits with WDAS and T-bill auctions withdrew funds from the system.

· W We expect money market rates to inch up moderately this week.

Foreign Exchange Market Review & Outlook

· The CBN offered US$270.0m but sold US$224.9m at the WDAS last week – US$104.9m and US$120.0m at Monday and Wednesday’s auctions respectively.

· We expect to see minor depreciation in the domestic currency this week.

Bond Market Review & Outlook

· The Nigerian bond market was skewed to the bears last week, as prices fell on all traded instruments (ex two 10yr bonds; 9.35% FGN AUG 2017 and 7.00%FGN OCT 2019).

· We expect the bond market to remain in bearish territory this week.