AGUNG ANGGONO

Think Big, Start Small, Move Fast - A Wisdom Sharing

2010-11-01T13:20:00.007+07:00

Think Big, Start Small, Move Fast is the third book which tells the live journey of SD Darmono (SDD) through the intermediary of the live journey of PT. Jababeka, or vice versa. Jababeka indeed identical to SDD, SDD also identical with Jababeka. This third book is more practical and lighter than the first book, so I can easily carry this book and read while waiting.

In this book, SDD describes the pattern of thinking pragmatic as well as very basic terms of moral development and outlook on life. He shares his experience, wise attitude and life virtue to overcome every problem. He offers a radical way of thinking and change the mentality in order to increase personal abilities of each person.

This book is Wisdom and Experience Sharing and provided in 3 chances, in front of the students of University President is described the concept of Think Big and explained in the first part of this book. Start Small is the second part is delivered in front of the senior executives of Jababeka Group. Move Fast is the third part is presented in front of some community leaders.

Introduction of this book is given by Eka Budianta which is one of the senior executive in Jababeka. One interesting view of the editor to describe SDD is Create Something Out Of Nothing.

“LIHAT Soekarno, saat akan memproklamirkan republik ini. Dalam waktu cukup singkat dan secarik kertas yang cukup penuh dengan coretan koreksi. Maka jadilah negeri ini,...”. That opening line invites the readers to understand the SDD views outlined into three steps.

The first step is Think Big, is a step in bringing the spirit and hoping to a pride result. So that everyone should have a highest dream. This section is presented in front of the students of The University President, this might be in order to convey a message to the young future leaders to dare to have highest thinking and dreaming. Dare to take opportunities. Act courageously. Because, doubt is could mean failure. “... ada banyak kesempatan lewat didepan mata kita, semua orang punya peluang untuk menangkapnya. Tetapi banyak yang kehilangan kesempatan. Musuh terbesar untuk sukses adalah ragu-ragu, tidak percaya kepada kemampuan sendiri.”

This section can be regarded as a role model from the leader. So the team members could be modeled the good behavior of the leader. It is also a wisdom sharing from the leader to the future generations. Share life attitude, kindness and wisdom.

Dreaming is free, but only dreaming and do nothing is tantamount not to become anything. It is a kind to a failure. So here SDD invites future leaders are studied in University President not to afraid to dream, but also do not fear of tread. Start with small steps but then move quickly.

Then Start Small, as a safe step to reduce the big risk that always comes up in every action. This small step is a learning process, test market, adaptation and building the team work. Starting small is much better than no start at all. This second step to be the second part of this book delivered in front of the senior executive of Jababeka Group, perhaps with this, SDD want to deliver his message that Jababeka begins with a small, courageous step.

Submission of this second sight in front of his team members can be interpreted as a step to support risk taking to his team members. So that each team member willing to take a risky decision to launch a small step that must continue to move quickly, because they know that their leader will support them.

The last session is Move Fast, which is interpreted as a command to move immediately. This quick action is needed to maintain momentum, reducing the prolonged debate, prolonged theoretical analysis and eliminate fear of failure, anxiety and doubt that could become counter-productive.

The third step was delivered in front of community leaders with the message that at this time Jababeka already at the stage to move quickly so that public support is needed and Jababeka will also move faster in the region development program with active participation from all stakeholders.

Submission of this third section in front of community leaders can also be interpreted that he has been on the stage of monitoring his team members in making decisions and moves. In addition, his team members considered to have reached the stage to leverage SDD views to their team members.

In this book, SDD also described his experiences in managing Jababeka from its inception, then to become a one of the largest industrial estate in Southeast Asia that has experienced the ups and downs. A company that used to has the debt of Rp. 700 billion, soaring to Rp. 4.9 trillion. This is due to the increased value of U.S. dollar to seven-times compare to Rupiah. From Rp 2,300,-/US$ to Rp 17,000,-/US$.

The problem becomes one of his tipping point in thinking big. Start small and move quickly so that by these three ideas, Jababeka debt can be solve within five years under the cold hand of SDD. PT. Jababeka again went back to the original tracks to become a healthy and respected company.

I remember those days as a young banker. Facing a financial crisis which was so heavy, with one of the tasks is to remedy nonperforming loans as much as possible, in the possible shortest time and with a minimum cost. At that time the young banker is facing with a big and famoust businessman. I honor him at that time. The impression that arises is, he is a humble, patient and calm. After all years passed, those impressions were still. When I had the opportunity to know him more closely either.

The Work of Nation - The Work Facing Millennium

2010-07-22T17:54:00.002+07:00

At the beginning of reading this book it seems we will not find something interesting because this book is not a new book. The book was published in 1991 about facing the new era of the millennium.

In general, this book is divided into three stages based on time. At the beginning it described the development of industry in the United States. This section feels a bit slower and less interesting. In the second part described the development of industry towards the 21st century. Then, the changes that company shift in behavior and management to look towards to the 21st century.

In general, the United States industry was initially managed with high-volume principle to achieve higher profits and corporate growth. In using the principle of high business value - the ability values basically can be divided into three, namely The Problem Solving Skills, Customer Understanding Need Skills and Problem Identifier and Problem Solving Skills. At this stage the ability to solve problems (Problem Solving) is the ability to pit together in unique ways. While the ability to understand customer needs is the ability to help customers understand their needs and can on best met with a customized product

In the high-value enterprises profit derive from the continues discovery of new linkages between solutions and need. The profit derived not from scale and volume. The high value enterprises need not be organized like old pyramid type. Because it has no need to control vast resources, discipline armies of production workers or impose predictable routines.

Values of the High Value Enterprises Came from The Problem Solver, The Problem Identifiers and The Strategic Brokers. The organization structure of The High Value Enterprise (then we call it HVE) is like a spider web instead of the old pyramidal type. In Indonesian banking industry we can find at least one bank that has adopted this system. This company's organizational structure is no longer in "boxes" based on the structure of position, but rather "broad" based on function.

HVE Should not be weighted down with large overhead cost to possibly quickly switch direction, pursue option (when they arise) and the discover linkages between solutions and problems. In general, web enterprises are divided into five main parts namely the Independent Profit Center, Spin-off Partnership, Spin-in Partnership, Licensing and Pure Brokering. Basically the key assets of HVE are not a tangible asset but the skill and reputation.

One of the interesting views or observations discussed in this book is about the Smart Follower and Inventor - or Genius Inventor. Some readers who are on the side of the inventors may have a slightly different view. The difference would be something interesting.

The author also discussed the effects of globalization. Then the Corporation's Home Nation could have some definitions. He told about the Ford's example. The story makes the Ford Corporation's Home Nations definition is to be disputed. The views on patriotism also changing, in line with the paradigm changes, g. American capitalism relentlessly was now organized around profit. They are not talked about patriotism anymore. Government definition is also experiencing an adjustment.

Changes in standards of living took effect a change of societal, political outlook, including family education issues in Symbolic Analytic Person. The growth in in-equality has been dramatics even among people who already holds jobs. The widening income gap is closely related to the level of education. There are three clues for that income gap; those are inequality income growth, widening income gap and the gender gap. It is like a sinking boat. The one is sinking rapidly - it Happen at routine producer, sinking more slowly - it happen at in-person servers and rising steadily - it happen at symbolic analytic. That is why we can see a phenomenon that the rich are getting Richer and the poor are getting poorer.

Although it is not a new book, but the discussion is quite interesting. Especially for us who want to look at developments in industry, finance, lifestyle and toward outlook in line with economic development

Epigram - Jamal - Between Idealism, Reality and Guilty Feeling

2009-12-02T11:14:00.008+07:00

The etymology of Epigram is derived from the Latin Epigrammat or from the Greek Epigraphein. Epigram was originally used in the inscription of a tomb or a monument to reveal the truth in a short and simple word. Perhaps this is also the wish to be submitted by the author in writing this book. A truth is displayed in a brief and simple. It made the impression so straightforward and frankly and did not try to show in a more subtle form.

This novel presents recalled techniques by telling back (flashbacks). The story begins from the offshore rigs in the North Sea. Kristunov as one of the person, once a leader of student movement of the demonstrations in 1989, who met with an Indonesian exiles who in 1965 could not return to Indonesia because of the political situation. The meeting which brought the story back to the year 1989.

ITB students from the class at the late 1980s, will be very easy to understand the story takes place in the University of Tralala Trilili (UTT). The time range is setting in August 1989 was not trying to be disguised by the author. Gedung Serba Guna (GSG) as a place to welcome the UTT new students and at the same place welcomed a Minister which is former General easily predicted.

Jamal is a dangerous writer, once commented on the cover of this book. Although the current government may not be fully compared with the government in power at the time of the incident, but the comment is still relevant. The author looks not intended mean to disguise the moment of the story. Almost the entire series of events and the scene of the incident refer to the August 5, 1989 at the Gedung Serba Guna – Institut of Teknologi Bandung. There is a demonstration happens at that time against the presence of General (Retired) Rudini who was serving as a Minister who delivered a speech at the new admissions.

Using University of Tralala Trilili as a name looks easily improvised. Maybe it is because looks light and entertaining.

There is the notion that a literature is a manifestation of the perspective of the author. Then, epigram is clearly describes the way the author saw about the phenomenon of student demonstrations in the era of the late 1980s and early 1990s, complete with the idealism should be (and appropriate) held and served by student activists in the era. The choices that must be decided and idealism that often have clashed with the realities.

Based on the birth of the author, it seems the author at that moment was studying at the Institut of Teknologi Bandung, which is sufficient to understand the existing conditions at that time. Although not all of the persons who experienced the incident are become sources of information, but it seems the partner of discussion and the information source has been chosen, who are considered to represent the student activists at the time.

The military eventually arrested Kris and Nara as the key person at that demonstration. Although Kris still refused accused of being a coordinator of the action, but military officials did not believe such defense. So, many physically and mentally acts of violence to be part of the interrogation process experienced by Kris and Nara.

Kris critical attitude may be inherited from the parent perspective. Kris's father is a former Air Force officer with a high idealism. The idealism will be retained even ended with the defeat, by dismissal from the Air Force. Kris father figure represented the author dimension of the Army's domination of the other forces.

Kris and Nara’s friends continue to free them. Then because of one of his friend’s kinship with a military top officer, both of them could be released. In order not to get caught again, they are sent abroad. They were sent to different countries.

Kris and Nara can complete their education with good and glorious achievements. Behind their success, they have to face with idealism and reality of life. Their guilty feeling that continues to haunt them for having left his friends in the state prison, continue to shadow their thoughts and feelings.

Beside their idealism, they also have to deal with human nature. The human nature: to love and be loved. They decided different decisions. Nara chooses to obey his human feelings. Kris chose to remain in his solitude. Choices, that ultimately leads to Kris on a very painful decision. Leaving a woman, who love him and loved by him. Options that take the decision to leave the country he loved very much, the land that had been defended. Option, that takes to the decision to hold out on a rig in the North Sea. The Option was not really the only option. The decision arises out from idealism, a guilty feeling or wrong decision anyway?

The difference of basic thinking as the base of their act in the demonstration may also influence the effects experienced further by them. Nara consciously followed the demonstration and led the demonstration because of his idealism. Kris followed the demonstration with the intention that is not entirely based on the idealism because of his study was near the end. These differences seem to give different aftereffect.

The author tried to get readers back to the frenzied demonstrations in the year of 80s to 90s. Frenzied political life of students at that time is pictured easily and lightly. The reader is not invited to understand the noisy political turmoil at that time students from the dark side, but invited to understand from the flexible side, entertaining, humane to affix a romantic love story between the characters.

Their life of soul full with depressed, doubt and alone, is decorated with romantic interlude by Sasti and Mira.

The political situation at that New Order era is presented in a clear and open picture. Conversations and comments of the characters do not try to cover or refined. Sharp critique of militarism and political life dominated by the military at that time openly presented. Maybe that's why one of the commentators saying the author of this book as a dangerous writer. The writing style that is difficult to do in that era.

But although the New Order era has passed, there is still possibility those who may object to the contents of this book because the language is very clear writing. So it was just a comment that Jamal is a dangerous writer.

- VIVAT ACADEMIA -

IN HARMONIA PROGRESIO

Epigram – Jamal – Antara Idealisme, Realitas dan Rasa Bersalah

Epigram dalam arti etymology berasal dari Bahasa Latin Epigrammat atau dari Bahasa Yunani Epigraphein. Kata Epigram pada awalnya digunakan pada prasasti dimakam atau monumen untuk mengungkapkan kebenaran secara singkat dan sederhana. Mungkin hal ini pula yang ingin disampaikan oleh penulis dalam tulisannya kali ini. Menampilkan suatu kebenaran secara singkat dan sederhana. Sehingga kesan lugas dan terus terang tidak berusaha di tampilkan dalam bentuk yang lebih halus.

Novel Epigram ini menyajikan teknik bercerita dengan bertutur balik (flashback). Cerita dimulai dari anjungan lepas pantai di Laut Utara. Menceritakan tentang Kristunov yang pernah menjadi tokoh gerakan mahasiswa pada demonstrasi tahun 1989, yang bertemu dengan seorang eksil Indonesia yang pada tahun 1965 tidak bisa kembali ke Indonesia karena situasi politik yang tidak memungkinkan. Pertemuan tersebut yang membawa cerita kembali ke tahun 1989.

Bagi mahasiswa ITB angkatan tahun 1980 an, akan sangat mudah memahami sebagian alur cerita yang mengambil setting lokasi di Universitas Tralala Trilili (UTT). Setting waktu yang berkisar di bulan Agustus 1989 pun tidak berusaha disamarkan oleh penulis. Gedung Serba Guna (GSG) sebagai tempat penyambutan mahasiswa baru UTT dan sekaligus tempat penyambutan Menteri Dalam Negeri yang mantan Jenderal itupun mudah diterka.

Jamal penulis yang berbahaya, begitu komentar pada halaman muka buku ini. Walaupun mungkin pemerintah saat ini tidak dapat dipersamakan secara sepenuhnya dengan pemerintahan yang berkuasa pada saat peristiwa terjadi, tetapi komentar tersebut masih tetap relevan. Penulis terlihat tidak bersungguh-sungguh bermaksud menyamarkan momen cerita. Hampir seluruh rangkaian peristiwa dan tempat kejadian mengacu kepada peristiwa 5 Agustus 1989 di depan Gedung Serba Guna – Institut Teknologi Bandung. Saat itu terjadi demonstrasi menentang kehadiran Jenderal (Purnawirawan) Rudini yang saat itu menjabat sebagai Menteri Dalam Negeri yang menyampaikan pidato pada acara penerimaan mahasiswa baru.

Penggunaan nama Universitas Tralala Trilili pun berkesan seadanya. Mungkin agar terlihat lebih ringan dan menghibur.

Ada pendapat yang mengatakan bahwa suatu tulisan adalah menifestasi cara pandang penulisnya. Maka Epigram sangat gamblang menggambarkan cara pandang penulis melihat fenomena demonstrasi mahasiswa pada era akhir tahun 1980 an hingga awal tahun 1990 an, lengkap dengan idealisme yang (sepatutnya) dianut dan dijalani oleh aktivis mahasiswa pada era tersebut. Idealisme yang seringkali harus berbenturan dengan kenyataan dan pilihan yang harus diputuskan.

Berdasarkan data tahun kelahiran penulis, tampaknya penulis pada saat itu sedang menjalani kuliah di Institut Teknologi Bandung, sehingga cukup memahami kondisi yang ada pada saat itu. Walaupun tidak semua yang mengalami langsung kejadian pada saat itu menjadi nara sumber, tetapi tampaknya penulis telah memilih partner diskusi dan nara sumber yang dianggap dapat mewakili aktivis mahasiswa saat itu.

Kris dan Nara sebagai pelaku demonstrasi pada saat itu, akhirnya ditangkap militer. Walaupun Kris tetap menolak dituduh sebagai coordinator aksi, tetapi aparat militer tidak mempercayai pembelaan tersebut. Sehingga berbagai tindak kekerasan baik fisik maupun mental menjadi bagian dari proses interogasi yang dialami Kris dan Nara.

Sikap kritis Kris mungkin diwarisi dari cara pandang orang tuanya. Ayah Kris adalah seorang mantan perwira Angkatan Udara dengan idealisme yang tinggi. Idealisme yang tetap dipertahankan walaupun berakhir dengan kekalahan, yaitu dengan pemberhentian dari Angkatan Udara. Sosok ayah Kris mewakili gambaran penulis mengenai dominasi Angkatan Darat terhadap matra angkatan lainnya.

Kawan-kawan Kris dan Nara terus berusaha untuk membebaskan mereka. Sehingga berkat hubungan kekerabatan salah seorang teman dengan seorang petinggi militer, mereka berdua berhasil dibebaskan. Agar tidak tertangkap lagi, mereka dikirim keluar negeri. Mereka dikirim ke negara yang berbeda.

Kris dan Nara dapat menyelesaikan pendidikannya dengan baik dan dengan prestasi gemilang. Dibalik kesuksesan mereka, idealisme dan kenyataan hidup harus mereka hadapi. Rasa bersalah yang terus menghantui mereka karena telah meninggalkan teman-temannya dipenjara di Negara mereka terus membayangi pikiran dan perasaan mereka.

Selain idealisme, mereka juga harus berhadapan dengan sifat alamiah manusia. Sifat manusiawi mereka untuk mencintai dan dicintai. Keputusan yang mereka ambil berbeda. Nara memilih patuh pada perasaan manusiawinya. Kris memilih tetap pada kesendiriannya. Pilihan yang pada akhirnya membawa Kris pada keputusan yang sangat menyakitkan. Meninggalkan wanita yang sangat mencintainya dan dicintainya. Pilihan yang membawa keputusan untuk meninggalkan negeri yang sangat dicintainya, negeri yang selama ini dibelanya. Pilihan yang membawa keputusan untuk terus menyendiri di sebuah rig di Laut Utara. Pilihan yang sebenarnya bukan pilihan satu-satunya. Keputusan yang timbul karena idealisme, rasa bersalah atau keputusan yang salah?

Perbedaan dasar pemikiran dalam bertindak dalam demonstrasi tersebut, kemungkinan juga mempengaruhi efek lanjutan yang mereka alami. Nara dengan sadar mengikuti demonstrasi dan memimpin demonstrasi tersebut karena idealismenya. Kris mengikuti demonstrasi dengan niat yang tidak sepenuhnya didasari idealisme karena pendidikannya yang sudah mendekati akhir. Perbedaan tersebut tampaknya memberikan efek lanjutan yang berbeda.

Penulis berusaha mengajak pembaca kembali ke masa hiruk pikuk demonstrasi di era tahun 80 – 90 an. Kehidupan politik mahasiswa saat itu yang hangar bingar digambarkan dengan gaya santai dan ringan. Pembaca tidak diajak memahami hingar bingar politik mahasiswa saat itu dari sisi yang gelap, tetapi diajak memahami dari sisi yang lentur, menghibur, manusiawi dengan imbuhan kisah cinta romantis diantara para tokohnya.

Kehidupan batin para tokoh cerita yang selalu gundah, ragu dan sepi dihiasi dengan selingan romantis tokoh Sasti dan Mira.

Gambaran politik saat itu pada rezim Orde Baru disajikan secara gamblang dan terbuka. Percakapan dan komentar para tokohnya tidak berusaha ditutupi atau diperhalus. Kritik tajam terhadap militerisme dan kehidupan politik yang dikuasai militer pada saat itu disajikan secara terbuka. Mungkin karena itulah salah satu komentator buku ini mengatakan penulis sebagai penulis yang berbahaya. Gaya penulisan yang tidak mungkin dilakukan pada era peristiwa berlangsung.

Tetapi walaupun era Orde Baru telah berlalu, tidak tertutup kemungkinan masih ada pihak yang merasa berkeberatan dengan isi buku ini karena bahasa penulisannya yang sangat gambling. Jadi memang tepat komentar bahwa Jamal adalah penulis yang berbahaya.

- VIVAT ACADEMIA -

IN HARMONIA PROGRESIO

Apocalypse 2012 – A Scientific Investigation into Civilization’s End – Lawrence E. Joseph

2009-11-25T08:53:00.005+07:00

2012. We can find this figure in many places. In the market, we can see a lot of illegal copy of VCD and DVD titled 2012. In bookstores, there are several books with the same theme of 2012. In the virtual world, we can find many discussions of 2012 in some blogs, web sites and conversations. Those are the reasons why I bought the book: Apocalypse 2012 – A Scientific Investigation into Civilization’s End by Lawrence E. Joseph. The Curiosity.

Several times, I saw books about 2012 in bookstores. At first I was not interested in this subject, because I think it must be explained in a way as if it is scientific analysis.

The writer opened the story by telling that the apocalypse does not need to be responded nonchalantly. There are many reasons to believe in apocalypse. There is more than enough pile of biochemical weapons throughout the world, there are many highly toxic materials to be burned in the future. So with or without the apocalypse, people will eventually destroy itself. In addition, many possible distractions could happen to a planet.

There are some reasons for the writer to believe that the apocalypse will happen in the year 2012, those are;

Mayan Divination.
Increasing in the Sun Activity.
Changes in Earth's Magnetic Field
The Solar System enters the Inter Stelar Energy Cloud
Powerful Eruption of Yellowstone Super Vulcan
Eastern Philosophy
Message from the Holly Book.

Mayan Divination

Ancient Mayan tribe divination became the first justification for saying that the apocalypse will occur in 2012. The level of Mayan science is already very high at that time and was amazing. They have been able to predict and calculate the various natural phenomena in a very detailed and precise.

According to the Mayan calendar system, today is the Fourth Age. This era is begin on August 13, 3114 BC and will end on December 21, 2012 or on 13.0.0.0.0 according to Mayan calendar system. Not explained how to adjust the current calendar system that was certainly different from their calendar system. They believe that the end of a state will proceed to the next state as a cycle. The end of the Fourth Age will be followed by The Fifth Age. The changing of the era could be compared with a birth. As a birth, it will be followed by blood and suffering.

Increasing in the Sun Activity

The sun currently is in the most active state during the last eleven thousand years, since the ice age. The ice age not gradually happened, but suddenly happened. Ice age begins with the significantly temperature increases of the Earth. This significant temperature increased occurred in less than 3 years before the ice age. So if it happens at this time, then the impact will be far greater. This temperature increased of The Earth has happened.

On 4 November 2003 has been observed the occurrence of 2 huge sunspots with Jupiter size on the surface of the Sun, called the Halloween storm. This is the largest sunspot ever observed. If the explosion led to the Earth, it will cause significant disruption of telecommunications.

These events showed a significantly increase in sun activity. If the sun activity increases by 1%, it will be followed by an increase in Earth temperature of 0.7 ^oC. It is estimated that the peak activity of the Sun will occur in the year 2012 with increased activity levels of 30% to 50%.

Besides an increase in Earth temperature, the Sun increased activity also will result in the Earth in physical. The sun big activity on 14 September 2009 led to the crack in Boina, area of Ethiopia, wth 4 meters width along the 60 kilometers. Increased activity of the Sun will also enhance the Earth’s atmosphere activity. When the Earth atmosphere has a lot of energy, the energy is channeled into the Earth's surface in the form of lightning. That electrical energy is channeled under the surface of the Earth by The Earth layer containing iron and metal ore to neutralized and stabilize the climate. The exploration of Iron ore and other metal deposits from inside the Earth has reduced the Earth stability in absorbing the electricity excess.

Changes in Earth’s Magnetic Field

Author convey the data that has been inferred depletion of Earth's magnetic field caused by the turbulence in inter-planetary magnetic field or dynamics fluctuation of Earth's liquid core. Thinning of the Earth's magnetic field will cause the two poles of the earth to exchange places. During this process, the Earth will have some magnetic poles that the compass would not point to one direction as the current North, but will point the direction to move to North, South, West, East or other points.

Depletion of Earth's magnetic field can cause ozone layer depletion. The thinning of Earth's magnetic layer will make the Sun’s proton radiation can through the Earth's magnetic shield. It will influence Earth’s atmosphere chemical reactions and the temperature will rose sharply. This causes the ozone layer in the Stratosphere declines drastically.

The Solar System Enters the Inter Stelar Clouds

It is estimated that every 62 million years to 65 million years, the orbit of solar system will enter the region of the Milky Way that has a high density. In these areas the risk level of comet rain or asteroid rain is very high.

Powerfull Eruption of Yellowstone Super Vulcan

The author presented that Yellowstone has erupted at least 100 times. The first eruption occurred about 2 million years ago and the last explosion occurred about 640 thousand years ago. In the last eruption, it spit out about 1,000 km³ of ash. The next eruption is expected to happen around the year 2012 with a force equivalent to 1,000 atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima.

The last huge volcano eruption, occurs in (the now of) Lake Toba. The eruption is estimated occurred at 74 thousand years ago. The world's population decreased, at that time, by 90%, to remaining only 10%. It can imagine if something similar happened at this time.

Message from the Holly Book

Various studies conducted by various experts on the verses in the Gospels show that apocalypse will occur in 2012. Although this explanation is not presented in detail by the author.

The author seems want to show that he conveys something serious and has been through in-depth analysis and research. Thus, he was not only analysis the literature and data study. But also directly visit to every related places and met with some experts to make direct discussion.

A very principle thing that does not exist in this book is dated December 21, 2012. All the scientific and religious analysis that presented by the author are to support this date. But there is no, even one, analysis that leads to that date. The only information, that date is the date set by the Tribal Maya.

Curiosity is the early considerations when I bought this book. My curiosity is not satisfied. We only know that the time is in the year 2012 without the strong data support that refers to that date. Why not December 12, 2012? 121212 would be more interesting than 211212, or 121212 would be too visible to be "forced"?

Kiamat 2012 – Investigasi Akhir Zaman – Lawrence E. Joseph

Tahun 2012. Angka tahun ini sekarang banyak kita jumpai. Dipasar, kita bisa menemui banyak VCD dan DVD bajakan berjudul 2012. Di toko buku, ada beberapa buku yang bertema tentang 2012. Di dunia maya, beberapa blog, web site dan perbincangan membahas tentang 2012. Itulah yang menjadi sebab sehingga saya membeli buku Kiamat 2012 – Investigasi Akhir Zaman karangan Lawrence E. Joseph. Rasa ingin tahu.

Beberapa kali saya melihat buku tentang 2012 di toko buku. Pada awalnya saya tidak tertarik dengan materi pembahasannya, karena saya pikir hal itu pasti akan dijelaskan dengan cara seakan-akan ilmiah.

Penulis membuka cerita dengan menceritakan bahwa kiamat tidak harus disikapi dengan sikap acuh. Ada banyak alasan untuk percaya adanya kiamat. Ada lebih dari cukup tumpukan senjata biokimia diseluruh dunia, ada banyak bahan yang sangat beracun untuk dibakar dimasa depan. Sehingga dengan maupun tanpa kiamat, manusia pada akhirnya akan memusnahkan dirinya sendiri. Selain itu banyak kemungkinan gangguan yang terjadi pada suatu planet.

Ada beberapa hal yang menjadi alasan bagi penulis untuk percaya bahwa kiamat akan terjadi di tahun 2012, yaitu ;

Ramalan Bangsa Maya
Peningkatan Aktivitas Matahari
Perubahan Medan Magnet Bumi
Tata Surya Memasuki Area Awan Energi Antar Bintang
Letusan Dahsyat Super Vulkan Yellowstone
Filosofi Timur
Berita di Kitab Suci.

Ramalan Bangsa Maya

Ramalan suku bangsa Maya Kuno menjadi dasar pertimbangan pertama untuk mengatakan bahwa kiamat akan terjadi pada tahun 2012. Tingkat ilmu pengetahuan bangsa Maya yang sudah sangat tinggi pada saat itu sangat mengagumkan. Mereka telah mampu memprediksi dan menghitung berbagai fenomena alam secara sangat detail dan tepat.

Menurut system penanggalan Bangsa Maya, saat ini adalah Zaman Ke-empat dalam system penanggalan mereka. Zaman ini dimulai pada tanggal 13 Agustus 3114 SM dan akan berakhir pada tanggal 21 Desember 2012 atau pada 13.0.0.0.0 menurut system penanggalan Maya. Tidak dijelaskan bagaimana menyesuaikan dengan system penanggalan sekarang yang sudah pasti berbeda dengan system penanggalan mereka. Sebagaimana suatu siklus, berakhirnya suatu keadaan akan dilanjutkan dengan keadaan berikutnya, berakhirnya Zaman Ke-Empat akan dilanjutkan dengan Zaman Ke-Lima. Pergantian zaman ini dianalogikan sebagai suatu kelahiran. Sebagaimana suatu kelahiran, akan diikuti dengan darah, penderitaan.

Peningkatan Aktivitas Matahari

Matahari saat ini berada pada paling aktif selama periode 11 ribu tahun terakhir, sejak jaman es terjadi. Sedangkan zaman es terjadi tidak secara bertahap, tetapi terjadi secara mendadak. Zaman es terjadi diawali dengan peningkatan secara suhu Bumi signifikan. Peningkatan suhu secara signifikan tersebut terjadi dalam waktu kurang dari 3 tahun sebelum terjadinya zaman es. Sehingga jika hal tersebut terjadi pada saat ini, maka akibat yang ditimbulkan akan jauh lebih hebat. Saat ini peningkatan suhu Bumi sudah mulai terjadi.

Pada tanggal 4 November 2003 diamati terjadinya 2 bintik matahari sebesar Jupiter pada saat bersamaan di permukaan Matahari, disebut Badai Halloween. Bintik Matahari tersebut adalah yang terbesar yang pernah diamati. Jika letupan tersebut mengarah ke Bumi, maka akan mengakibatkan gangguan telekomunikasi secara signifikan.

Peristiwa tersebut menunjukkan adanya peningkatan aktivitas Matahari secara signifikan. Jika aktivitas Matahari meningkat sebesar 1%, maka akan diikuti dengan peningkatan suhu Bumi sebesar 0,7^oC. Diperkirakan puncak aktivitas Matahari akan terjadi pada tahun 2012 dengan tingkat aktivitas meningkat sebesar 30% hingga 50%.

Selain terjadi peningkatan suhu Bumi, peningkatan aktivitas Matahari juga akan berakibat pada fisik Bumi. Aktivitas Matahari yang besar pada tanggal 14 September 2009 menimbulkan rekahan selebar 4 meter dan sepanjang 60 kilo meter di daerah Boina di Ethiopia. Peningkatan aktivitas Matahari juga akan meningkatkan aktivitas yang terjadi di atmosfer Bumi. Ketika terdapat cukup banyak energi di atmosfer Bumi, energi tersebut dialirkan ke permukaan Bumi dalam bentuk kilat. Energi listrik tersebut tersebut dialirkan dibawah permukaan Bumi oleh lapisan Bumi yang mengandung besi dan bijih logam untuk dinetralkan dan menstabilkan iklim. Penambangan bijih besi dan deposit logam lainnya dari perut Bumi telah mengurangi kestabilan Bumi dalam menyerap kelebihan listrik.

Perubahan Medan Magnet Bumi.

Penulis menyampaikan data bahwa disimpulkan telah terjadi penipisan medan magnet Bumi yang disebabkan oleh turbulensi di medan magnet antar planet atau fluktuasi dinamika inti cair Bumi. Penipisan medan magnet Bumi ini akan menyebabkan kedua kutub planet Bumi saling bertukar tempat. Selama proses tersebut berlangsung, Bumi akan mempunyai beberapa kutub magnet sehingga kompas tidak akan menunjuk ke satu arah Utara seperti saat ini, tetapi akan bergerak menunjuk arah Utara, Selatan, Barat, Timur atau titik-titik lain pada mata angin.

Penipisan medan magnet Bumi ini dapat menyebabkan penipisan lapisan Ozon. Ketika lapisan magnetik Bumi menipis, radiasi proton Matahari menembus perisai magnetic Bumi. Sehingga reaksi kimia di atmosfer Bumi terpengaruh dan suhu meningkat tajam. Hal ini menyebabkan lapisan Ozon di Stratosfer menurun secara drastic.

Tata Surya Memasuki Daerah Awan Antar Bintang

Diperkirakan setiap 62 juta tahun hingga 65 juta tahun, orbit Tata Surya akan memasuki kawasan Bima Sakti yang memiliki kerapatan tinggi. Pada kawasan tersebut tingkat risiko terjadinya hujan komet atau hujan asteroid sangat tinggi.

Letusan Dahsyat Super Vulkan Yellowstone.

Disampaikan oleh penulis bahwa Yellowstone telah meletus paling tidak sebanyak 100 kali. Letusan pertama terjadi sekitar 2 juta tahun yang lalu dan letusan terkahir terjadi sekitar 640 ribu tahun yang lalu. Pada letusan terakhir, dimuntahkan sekitar 1.000 km³ abu. Letusan berikutnya diperkirakan akan terjadi disekitar tahun 2012 dengan kekuatan setara dengan 1.000 buah bom atom yang dijatuhkan di Hiroshima.

Letusan gunung api sangat besar yang terakhir, terjadi pada (yang sekarang menjadi) Danau Toba. Letusan tersebut diperkirakan terjadi 74 ribu tahun yang lalu. Pada saat itu populasi dunia berkurang sebesar 90% hingga hanya tersisa 10% saja. Bisa dibayangkan bila hal serupa terjadi pada saat ini.

Berita di Kitab Suci

Berbagai telaah yang dilakukan oleh berbagai ahli terhadap ayat-ayat yang ada di Injil menunjukkan bahwa kiamat akan terjadi pada tahun 2012. Walaupun penjelasan tentang hal tersebut tidak disajikan secara detail oleh penulis.

Penulis tampaknya ingin memperlihatkan bahwa yang disampaikannya adalah sesuatu yang serius dan telah melalui analisa dan penelitian secara mendalam. Sehingga, dia tidak hanya melakukan kajian data dan analisa pustaka semata. Tetapi juga melakukan telaah hingga keberbagai tempat untuk mengamati secara langsung dan bertemu dengan beberapa pakar untuk mengadakan diskusi secara langsung.

Satu hal yang sangat prinsip yang tidak ditemui di buku ini adalah tanggal 21 Desember 2012. Semua analisa ilmiah dan religi yang disampaikan penulis disajikan untuk mendukung tanggal tersebut. Tetapi tidak ada satu analisa-pun yang mengantarkan kita pada tanggal tersebut. Satu-satunya informasi tanggal tersebut adalah bahwa tanggal tersebut adalah tanggal yang ditetapkan oleh Suku Bangsa Maya.

Kembali pada pertimbangan awal ketika membeli buku ini, rasa ingin tahu. Rasa ingin tahu yang tidak akan terpuaskan dari buku ini. Kita hanya tahu bahwa kiamat akan terjadi pada tahun 2012 tanpa dukungan data yang kuat yang merujuk pada tanggal tersebut. Kenapa bukan 12 Desember 2012? 121212 akan lebih menarik dibandingkan 211212, atau 121212 akan terlalu terlihat “dipaksakan”?

New Bussway Company

2009-11-24T12:58:00.002+07:00

NO COMMENT !!!

2009-11-24T12:52:00.004+07:00

Something Wrong With The Policy

2009-11-20T11:18:00.005+07:00

What is happening?

Is Bank Indonesia or the Monetary Authority does not understand that there is indeed something wrong in their policies?

Maximum interest rate guaranteed by LPS currently is around 6% pa The Bank interest rate for current accounts and savings accounts approximately 2% pa to 4% pa. Banking interest rate for time deposits of about 4 p.a. up to 6% p.a. If the average interest rate for saving account is 3% p.a. What is happening with this?

Multiple Choices ? Police Officer, Security or "Motor Cycle Carpenter" - Tukang Ojeg

2009-11-20T10:03:00.014+07:00

Picture 1 of 3 : Guess Who ? Police Officer or Security or "Tukang Ojeg" ?

Picture 2 of 3 : Guess Who ? Police Officer or Security or "Tukang Ojeg" ?

Picture 3 of 3 : Guess Who ? Police Officer or Security or "Tukang Ojeg" ?

IS SAVING IN THE BANK REALLY BENEFICIAL?

2009-11-19T16:09:00.004+07:00

Preface

Parents often advise their children to be thrifty and diligent in saving. Because of the saving is very important so that the Board of Directors of Bank Indonesia in 1971, published a decree of public deposits forms, known as the National Development Savings (Tabungan Pembangunan Nasional - Tabanas), Saving Students and Scouts (Tabungan Pelajar dan Pramuka - Tapelpram) and the Savings Deposits Insurance (Tabungan Asuransi Berjangka - Taska). Maybe only one bank is the Bank Saudara who still has Tabanas and Taska as its deposit product, while the other bank is no longer has these products. Through the Bank Indonesia, the government, re-invigorate the community saving program.

The Logo below may have often seen in various forms of promotional campaigns from the government and Bank Indonesia to activate savings.

Or this logo:

Through the Bank Indonesia, once again the government invites to reactivate the saving program. Saving program is become a part of the community learning programs and knowledge of banking and banking products. Generally the program is describes in the form of an invitation to the Bank. Therefore, AYO KE BANK logo is used for banking education program as the first picture above.

Besides the banking system that has been generally known, there is also another banking system which uses the Islamic Shari’a principles. The general Banking system that is known for a long time is called as the “Conventional” Banking system, to distinguish the banking system which uses the principles of Islamic law or Sharia Banking system. Islamic banking education program is using the Islamic Banking – IB logo as the second picture above as an introduction media to the public.

The question that then arises is: What is the importance of public savings? So that the government issued the regulations to activate savings and public are invited to actively save. Back to the parents teach to their children: Saves is the base to be rich and Saves for bright future. But other than that, there is another consideration that national savings activities become important.

In the economic system of a country, savings and investments are become the indicators to determine the level of economic growth. High economic growth for economic development in the developing countries required big funding. But on the other hand, the efforts to mobilize domestic funding sources to finance the construction is facing a constraint in capital formation, from the government revenue derived from exports of goods and services abroad, or government revenue through tax instruments.

Not only the economic sector that affected by the economic crisis that hit Indonesia in Mid 1997, which became multi dimensional crisis, but affecting the general condition of Indonesia. Rupiah exchange rate depreciates very sharp, high inflation, declining investor confidence to invest in Indonesia, is a result of the economic crisis. Gradually, with several changes of political structure and implementation of policies by the government, Indonesia economic condition is changing, showed a better and stable economic trend.

To finance national development in Indonesia, including domestic investment, could come from the national savings and foreign loans. However, because of the limited amount of funds and loans obtained from foreign sources, it required higher national savings as the main source of funds.

The need for national saving is evidenced by the saving-investment gap widened from year to year, indicating that the growth of domestic investment exceeds the ability to accumulate national savings. In general, the mobilization of community business capital can be in the form of capital mobilization from domestic and from foreign capital.

This classification is based on the source of capital that can be used in developing the country. Capital mobilizations from domestic sources come from 3 main sources, namely: first, voluntary saving society, second, government savings, and three, forced savings (saving forced or involuntary saving). While foreign capital came through official government loans to financial institutions, international organizations such as International Monetary Fund (IMF), Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, and official bilateral loans and multilateral, as well as through foreign direct investment (FDI).

October 1988 Package Policy or better known as "PAKTO 88" as the background, the main points of such policies is to mobilize funds from the community by facilitating to open new branch offices, the establishment of new private banks, saving flexibility, and expansion bank branch offices. After the "PAKTO 88", it is easy to set up more banks and saving products became more variable that is offered by private or government banks. Since then, national savings began to rise dramatically. In the previous years, there was tendency of the competition between various countries to increase domestic or foreign investment flows. Competition is mainly because of the needs of a very large fund and urged to support economic growth, especially in developing countries.

Is Saving in the Bank Really Beneficial?

In the discussion above has been seen that saving was important personally and nationally. The next consideration is to choose between saving in the bank, saving in our children piggy bank, saving under the pillow or saving elsewhere.

One consideration from various options is interest rate consideration. Of course, there are other considerations than interest rate, for examples are deposits security consideration, function of deposit or even lifestyle consideration. Deposit security consideration will not be discussed because it can not be quantification.

Saving is a function of interest rates. This means that the more attractive interest rate given, the savings would be more attractive. The interest rate can be described as the payment of not to consume, return from a willingness to wait and payment for using the funds. Therefore, if the interest rate rises, the savings amount will also increase. The interest rate is determined by several considerations such as the balance between saving and investment.

There are many factors that affect savings. Among these, is interest rate, although there may be circumstances where the savings is remains although negative interest rate.

The interest rate level of saving and current account prevailing in the Bank is around 2% pa to 4% pa. Time Deposit interest rate is between 4% pa to 6% pa. This condition is, of course, ignoring special rate offered caused by various conditions.

For a depositor with the deposit value under Rp. 100 Million, surely can not expect to get the maximum interest rate guaranteed by LPS for savings.

We assume there are 3 depositors who want to save money in the form of deposits for Rp. 10 million, Rp. 15 million and Rp. 25 million. Bank interest rate for deposit is 4% pa and administrative fee is Rp. 50.000, -. One month later, each deposit amount will be:

Principle/Description	Rp. 10.000.000,-	Rp. 15.000.000,-	Rp. 25.000.000,-

Interest Amount :	Rp. 32.877,-	Rp. 49.315,-	Rp. 82.191,-
Tax :	Rp. 6.575,-	Rp. 9.863,-	Rp. 16.439,-
Administration Fee :	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-
Interest Received :	- Rp. 23.699,-	- Rp. 10.548,-	Rp. 15.753,-

Balance :	Rp. 9.976.301,-	Rp. 14.989.452,-	Rp. 25.015.753,-

The above calculation shows that the Bank deposits with a value below USD. 25 million, then continue to decrease because of the imposition by the government in the form of tax and stamp duty, and imposition by the Bank in the form of administration fee. Within 1 year the depositor would get the load to reach Rp. 264,100, - for deposit in Rp. 10 Million, 117,565, - for deposit in Rp. 15 Million. By using the above assumptions, the minimum deposit value in order not to decrease is between Rp. 19 Million to 20 Million.

If the Bank deposit is not in the form of Time Deposits, but in the form of savings by 2% pa interest rate, then the burden will be greater. Below is given the calculation with the assumption of bank savings interest is 2% pa

Principle/Description	Rp. 10.000.000,-	Rp. 15.000.000,-	Rp. 25.000.000,-

Interest Amount :	Rp. 16.438,-	Rp. 24.658,-	Rp. 41.096,-
Tax :	Rp. 3.288,-	Rp. 4.932,-	Rp. 8.219,-
Administration Fee :	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-
Interest Received :	- Rp. 36.849,-	- Rp. 30.274,-	- Rp. 17.123,-

Balance :	Rp. 9.963.151,-	Rp. 14.969.726,-	Rp. 24.982.877,-

It could be seen that if the bank deposit form of savings by 2% pa interest rate, then the value of savings will be more burdened. The minimum deposit value in order not to decrease is between Rp. 38 million to Rp. 40 Million.

Value of savings in the above calculation above is not the real value of savings. The real value of savings must be corrected by the inflation factor, such as the following:

Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation

So if the above formulation used to calculate the savings, assumed value of inflation rate is 10%, then the principal after a 1-year savings would be as follows:

Principle/Description	Rp. 10.000.000,-	Rp. 15.000.000,-	Rp. 25.000.000,-

Real Int. – 4% :	Rp. 9.035.209,-	Rp. 13.822.453,-	Rp. 23.396.940,-
Difference :	- Rp. 964.791,-	- Rp. 1.177.547,-	- Rp. 1.603.060,-
Real Int. – 2% :	Rp. 8.900.591,-	Rp. 13.618.766,-	Rp. 23.055.117,-
Difference :	- Rp. 1.099.409,-	- Rp. 1.381.234,-	- Rp. 1.944.883,-

It could be seen that saving in the bank is not the best investment option, especially if the profit factor is the main consideration.

Pendahuluan

Para orang tua sering menasihati anak-anaknya agar berhemat dan rajin menabung. Sedemikian pentingnya menabung sehingga Direksi Bank Indonesia pada tahun 1971 menerbitkan surat keputusan penerbitan bentuk-bentuk simpanan masyarakat yang dikenal sebagai Tabungan Pembangunan Nasional (Tabanas), Tabungan Pelajar dan Pramuka (Tapelpram) dan Tabungan Asuransi Berjangka (Taska). Saat ini mungkin hanya ada satu bank yaitu Bank Saudara yang masih memasarkan produk simpanan Tabanas dan Taska, sedangkan Bank lain sudah tidak lagi memasarkan produk tersebut. Saat ini pemerintah, melalui Bank Indonesia, kembali menggiatkan program menabung masyarakat.

Logo seperti dibawah ini mungkin sudah sering dilihat dalam berbagai bentuk promosi maupun kampanye pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia untuk menggiatkan menabung.

Atau logo seperti ini :

Saat ini pemerintah melalui Bank Indonesia kembali mengajak masyarakat untuk menggiatkan kembali keinginan menabung. Progam menabung tersebut menjadi bagian dari program pembelajaran masyarakat dan pengenalan akan perbankan dan produk-produk perbankan. Secara umum program tersebut di gambarkan dalam bentuk ajakan untuk ke Bank. Oleh karena itu program edukasi perbankan ini berlogo AYO KE BANK seperti pada gambar pertama diatas.

Selain perbankan secara umum yang dikenal, saat ini terdapat juga system perbankan yang menggunakan prinsip syariat Islam. Sistem perbankan yang secara umum dikenal sejak lama disebut sebagai sistem Perbankan “Konvensional”, untuk membedakan dengan system perbankan yang menggunakan prinsip syariat Islam atau system Perbankan Syariah. Program edukasi perbankan syariah ini menggunakan logo Islamic Banking – IB seperti pada gambar kedua diatas sebagai media pengenalan kepada masyarakat.

Pertanyaan yang kemudian timbul adalah : Apa pentingnya tabungan masyarakat? Sehingga pemerintah menerbitkan peraturan untuk menggiatkan tabungan dan masyarakat diajak untuk giat menabung. Kembali ajaran orang tua kepada anak-anaknya : Hemat Pangkal Kaya dan Rajinlah Menabung Untuk Masa Depan Cerah. Tetapi selain itu ada lagi pertimbangan nasional sehingga kegiatan menabung menjadi penting.

Dalam perekonomian suatu negara, tabungan dan investasi merupakan indikator yang dapat menentukan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pembangunan ekonomi yang cukup tinggi di negara-negara berkembang (developing countries) termasuk didalamnya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup tinggi, membutuhkan dana yang cukup besar. Tetapi di sisi lain, usaha pengerahan sumber dana dalam negeri untuk membiayai pembangunan menghadapi kendala dalam pembentukan modal, baik yang bersumber dari penerimaan pemerintah yaitu ekspor barang dan jasa ke luar negeri, ataupun penerimaan pemerintah melalui instrumen pajak

Krisis ekonomi yang melanda Indonesia pada pertengahan tahun 1997 yang kemudian menjadi krisis multidimensi berdampak pada kondisi Indonesia secara umum tidak hanya terhadap sektor ekonomi saja. Nilai tukar rupiah yang terdepresiasi sangat tajam, inflasi yang tinggi, menurunnya kepercayaan investor untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia, merupakan beberapa akibat dari krisis ekonomi tersebut. Lambat laun, dengan beberapa kali perubahan struktur politik dan penerapan kebijakan-kebijakan oleh pemerintah, kondisi Indonesia menunjukan perubahan yang lebih baik dan kondisi perekonomian yang stabil.

Di Indonesia, untuk membiayai pembangunan nasional yang mencakup investasi domestik, sumber dananya dapat bersumber dari tabungan nasional dan pinjaman luar negeri. Namun, karena terbatasnya jumlah dana serta pinjaman yang diperoleh dari luar negeri, maka diperlukan tabungan nasional yang lebih tinggi sebagai sumber dana yang utama.

Perlunya tabungan nasional ini dibuktikan dengan adanya saving-investment gap yang semakin melebar dari tahun ke tahun yang menandakan bahwa pertumbuhan investasi domestik melebihi kemampuan dalam mengakumulasi tabungan nasional. Secara umum, usaha pengerahan modal dari masyarakat dapat berupa pengerahan modal dari dalam negeri maupun dari luar negeri.

Pengklasifikasian ini didasarkan pada sumber modal yang dapat digunakan dalam pembangunan. Pengerahan modal yang bersumber dari dalam negeri berasal dari 3 sumber utama, yaitu : pertama, tabungan sukarela masyarakat. Kedua, tabungan pemerintah, dan ketiga tabungan paksa (forced saving or involuntary saving). Sedangkan modal yang berasal dari luar negeri yaitu melalui pinjaman resmi pemerintah kepada lembaga-lembaga keuangan internasional seperti International Monetary Fund (IMF), Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, maupun pinjaman resmi bilateral dan multilateral, juga melalui foreign direct investment (FDI).

Dengan latar belakang ditetapkannya Paket Kebijakan Oktober 1988 atau yang lebih dikenal dengan “PAKTO 88”, yang pokok-pokok kebijakannya berisi antara lain untuk mengerahkan dana dari masyarakat dengan cara memudahkan pembukaan kantor cabang baru, pendirian bank swasta baru, keleluasaan penyelenggaraan tabungan, dan perluasan kantor cabang bank. Setelah adanya “PAKTO 88” ini, semakin mudahlah bank didirikan dan semakin bervariasi juga bentuk-bentuk tabungan yang ditawarkan oleh bank-bank yang sudah terbentuk baik swasta maupun pemerintah. Semenjak saat itu, tabungan nasional mulai meningkat drastis. Sejak tahun-tahun sebelumnya tampak adanya kecenderungan persaingan antar berbagai negara untuk memperbesar arus investasi baik asing maupun domestik. Persaingan terutama terjadi karena kebutuhan dana yang sangat besar dan mendesak untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi terutama di negara-negara berkembang.

Benarkah Menabung di Bank Menguntungkan ?

Pada pembahasan diatas telah terlihat bahwa menabung ternyata penting secara pribadi maupun secara nasional. Pertimbangan selanjutnya adalah memilih antara menyimpan uang tabungan di Bank, menyimpan uang tabungan di celengan ayam jago anak kita, menyimpan uang tabungan dibawah bantal atau di tempat lain.

Salah satu pertimbangan dari berbagai pilihan diatas adalah pertimbangan tingkat bunga. Tentu saja selain pertimbangan tingkat bunga terdapat berbagai pertimbangan lainnya, misalnya tingkat keamanan simpanan, fungsi simpanan atau bahkan pertimbangan gaya hidup. Pada tulisan ini tidak akan dibahas tingkat keamanan atas berbagai pilihan diatas yang tidak dapat dikuantifisir.

Tabungan merupakan fungsi dari tingkat bunga. Artinya semakin menarik tingkat bunga yang diberikan, maka tabungan yang ditawarkan akan semakin menarik. Tingkat bunga dapat digambarkan sebagai pembayaran dari tidak dilakukannya konsumsi, imbalan dari kesediaan untuk menunggu dan pembayaran atas penggunaan dana. Oleh karena itu, jika tingkat bunga naik, jumlah tabungan juga akan meningkat. Tingkat bunga ditentukan oleh beberapa pertimbangan antara lain keseimbangan antara tabungan dan investasi.

Terdapat berbagai faktor yang mempengaruhi tabungan. Diantara faktor-faktor tersebut antara lain adalah tingkat bunga, walaupun mungkin ada keadaan dimana tetap ada tabungan walaupun tingkat bunga negatif.

Tingkat bunga giro dan tabungan yang berlaku di Bank saat ini berkisar pada angka 2% p.a hingga 4% p.a. Tingkat bunga deposito yang berlaku saat ini berkisar antara 4% p.a hingga 6% p.a. Kondisi tersebut tentunya dengan mengabaikan adanya special rate yang ditawarkan yang ditimbulkan akibat berbagai keadaan.

Bagi seorang deposan dengan nilai simpanan dibawah Rp. 100 Juta tentunya tidak bisa mengharapkan akan mendapatkan bunga sebesar maksimum penjaminan LPS bagi simpanannya.

Kita asumsikan ada 3 penabung yang hendak menyimpan uangnya dalam bentuk deposito masing-masing sebesar Rp. 10 Juta, Rp. 15 Juta dan Rp. 25 Juta. Oleh Bank penyimpan diberi bunga sebesar 4% p.a dan biaya administrasi sebesar Rp. 50.000,-. Satu bulan kemudian jumlah simpanan masing-masing akan menjadi :

Principle/Description	Rp. 10.000.000,-	Rp. 15.000.000,-	Rp. 25.000.000,-

Interest Amount :	Rp. 32.877,-	Rp. 49.315,-	Rp. 82.191,-
Tax :	Rp. 6.575,-	Rp. 9.863,-	Rp. 16.439,-
Administration Fee :	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-
Interest Received :	- Rp. 23.699,-	- Rp. 10.548,-	Rp. 15.753,-

Balance :	Rp. 9.976.301,-	Rp. 14.989.452,-	Rp. 25.015.753,-

Perhitungan diatas memperlihatkan bahwa simpanan di Bank dalam bentuk deposito dengan nilai simpanan dibawah Rp. 25 Juta, maka nilai simpanan akan terus berkurang karena pembebanan oleh pemerintah dalam bentuk pajak dan bea materai, serta pembebanan oleh Bank dalam bentuk bea administrasi. Dalam 1 tahun deposan akan terkena beban hingga mencapai Rp. 264.100,- untuk deposito dengan nominal Rp. 10 Juta dan Rp. 117.565,- untuk deposito dengan nominal Rp. 15 Juta. Dengan menggunakan asumsi tesebut diatas maka nilai minimum deposito agar tidak berkurang adalah antara Rp. 19 Juta hingga 20 Juta.

Jika simpanan di Bank tidak dalam bentuk deposito, tetapi dalam bentuk tabungan dengan bunga 2% p.a, maka beban tersebut akan lebih besar. Dibawah ini diberikan perhitungan dengan asumsi bunga tabungan di Bank 2% p.a.

Principle/Description	Rp. 10.000.000,-	Rp. 15.000.000,-	Rp. 25.000.000,-

Interest Amount :	Rp. 16.438,-	Rp. 24.658,-	Rp. 41.096,-
Tax :	Rp. 3.288,-	Rp. 4.932,-	Rp. 8.219,-
Administration Fee :	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-	Rp. 50.000,-
Interest Received :	- Rp. 36.849,-	- Rp. 30.274,-	- Rp. 17.123,-

Balance :	Rp. 9.963.151,-	Rp. 14.969.726,-	Rp. 24.982.877,-

Terlihat bahwa jika simpanan di Bank dalam bentuk tabungan dengan bunga 2% p.a, maka nilai simpanan akan terbebani lebih besar. Nilai simpanan minimum agar tidak berkurang adalah antara Rp. 38 Juta hingga Rp. 40 Juta.

Nilai simpanan dalam perhitungan diatas sebenarnya bukan nilai sesungguhnya dari simpanan kita. Nilai sesungguhnya dari simpanan harus dikoreksi dengan faktor inflasi, seperti dibawah ini :

Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation

Jadi jika digunakan formulasi diatas untuk menghitung asumsi simpanan di Bank seperti diatas dengan nilai inflasi diasumsikan 10%, maka pokok simpanan setelah 1 tahun akan menjadi sebagai berikut :

Principle/Description	Rp. 10.000.000,-	Rp. 15.000.000,-	Rp. 25.000.000,-

Real Int. – 4% :	Rp. 9.035.209,-	Rp. 13.822.453,-	Rp. 23.396.940,-
Difference :	- Rp. 964.791,-	- Rp. 1.177.547,-	- Rp. 1.603.060,-
Real Int. – 2% :	Rp. 8.900.591,-	Rp. 13.618.766,-	Rp. 23.055.117,-
Difference :	- Rp. 1.099.409,-	- Rp. 1.381.234,-	- Rp. 1.944.883,-

Terlihat bahwa menyimpan uang di Bank bukanlah pilihan investasi yang terbaik, terutama jika faktor keuntungan yang menjadi pertimbangan utama.

The Palace of Illusions – Chitra Banerjee Divakaruni – Woman Role

2009-11-05T16:42:00.004+07:00

Through this paper, the author tried to retell the Mahabharata War from the perspective of women through the vision and the flow of Draupadi’s thought. The important role of women told from the beginning of the event as a small role, that is considered not mean to be critical and the trigger for almost every scene. Privilege of birth, or the presence of Draupadi, from the Holy Fire and Smoke was not able to raises in rank before her father and the community because the presence of her brother Drestajumna. Because of her brother who raised Draupadi’s hand, then her presence physical equal with Drestajumna.

The revenge triggered Panchali’s ambition has been established since the beginning of her presence in the world. Regardless the attitude of her father to burn Panchali anger that she could receive her bad destiny predicted by sacred fortune teller Vyasa. Anger was also made Panchali to accept her fate become polyandry by accepting the five Pandavas as her husbands. While a deep desire to Khresna and her love for Karna should be buried and hidden away. In this story we could see acumen, cunning and patience are kept at the weak time. Panchali keeps her strategies such as hands holding sand.

Tempered nature and easily ignited emotions of Panchali often make her logic and intelligence excluded. This emotion is what makes Panchali must bear the burden of lifelong grudge of Karna. Rough speech emotion-driven making Karna as someone who loved and love her turned into a lifelong enemy. Karna loves to Panchali and Panchali loves to Karna which does not stop until the death of both must be a burden that is borne along her life. Perhaps in this case the author wants to tell that emotions of women are easily ignited then must be controlled. So when emotions ignited, then such a woman with extraordinary skills as Panchali could not uses her intelligence and logic.

Bharatayudha or the Mahabharata known as man's world. Man as the center, Karna strategy against Dorna, Pandu with Destarastra, Yudhistira with Duryudana, Karna and Arjuna and the other figures are dominated by men. Srikandi figure as a knight or heroine is not really Srikandi as a Srikandi. Male domination placed women figure in Mahabharata not as central figure in general and make women not in an equal position with men. This inequality leads to injustice and tyranny. This injustice and arbitrary nature form the figure of Panchali.

Indeed, Panchali soul has died along the road toward the establishment of Bharata family’s war or Bharatayudha. Half self of Panchali died when all that she loved and love her, all quiet when he was persecuted, humiliated and she expected for help. The other half, perished with the destruction of the Palace of Illusions, Indraphrasta. After that, her life is just follows wherever her revenge took her.

For Panchali, this is Yudhistira obligation as a husband to returns their glory. Therefore, in her wanderings, Panchali always chided and derided her husbands to maintain her revenge and return her glory.

Any wise words and advice from Khresna could not dampened her revenge. Her Logic and intelligence give Panchali ability to understand and comprehend. But revenge was to burn all understanding. Words of her mouth as sharp as knife, in contrast to her heart that sometimes still want to hear her logic

This story is also describe the feud between in-law (Panchali) with the ego and the authoritarian nature of the mother-in-law (Kunti), Gandhari’s sacrifice as a wife who accompanied Destarastra, Vyasa resignation and fortitude to saw his grand sons and grand-grand sons killing each other, attitude of gods and the wise sentences of Krishna becoming other interesting parts of the story. The nature of the woman also shown by the author in Panchali behavior. It can be seen when Panchali jealous seeing Arjuna took another woman as his wife and treated her with love. Also shown how Panchali can not resist the soft attention of Bima as her husband who loved her most, even though the Panchali’s heart to love another.

By reading this book, our understanding of the Bharatayudha becomes better. We know the outlines story of Mahabharata. Of course this thin book may not be able to tell in detail the all Mahabharata stories. Too many fragments of the Mahabharata are impossible to tell by this thin book.

For me, this book is good to understand why Bharatayudha can happen. In my previous article, I have been discussed about the story of Ramayana. Chitra Banerjee book is better organized. This may be due to the background and intentions of the author. In the Ramayana, the intention to give advice and teachings are very prominent, thereby reducing order in spoken and written. This may be due to the background of the writer as a brahmin.

Melalui tulisan ini, Penulis berusaha untuk menceritakan kembali Perang Mahabharata dari sudut pandang wanita melalui penglihatan dan alur pikir Drupadi. Peran penting wanita diceritakan dari awal kejadian sebagai peran kecil yang dianggap tidak berarti hingga menjadi penentu dan titik awal hampir semua kejadian. Keistimewaan kelahiran, atau kehadiran Drupadi, dari Api Suci dan Asap tidak mampu mengangkat derajatnya dihadapan orang tua dan adat istiadat yang berlaku karena kehadiran kakaknya Drestajumna. Karena kakaknya yang mengangkat tangan Drupadi, maka kehadiran Drupadi disetarakan dengan Drestajumna secara fisik.

Dendam yang memicu ambisi Panchali sesungguhnya telah terbentuk sejak awal kehadirannya di dunia. Sikap tak perduli ayahnya membakar amarah Panchali sehingga dia mampu menerima nasib tidak baik yang diramalkan peramal sakti Byasa kepadanya. Amarah ini pula yang membuat Panchali menerima nasibnya menjadi pelaku Poliandri dengan menerima kelima Pandawa sebagai suaminya. Sementara hasratnya yang mendalam kepada Khresna dan cintanya kepada Karna harus dipendam jauh dan disembunyikan rapat-rapat. Dalam cerita ini terlihat kelihaian, kelicinan dan kesabaran yang dijaga pada saat dianggap lemah. Panchali menyimpan strateginya seperti tangan menggenggam pasir.

Sifat Panchali yang pemarah dan emosi yang mudah tersulut seringkali membuat logikanya dan kecerdasannya tersisihkan. Emosi ini pula yang membuat Panchali harus menanggung beban dendam Karna seumur hidupnya. Ucapan kasar yang didorong emosinya membuat Karna sebagai sosok yang dicintai dan mencintainya berubah menjadi musuh seumur hidupnya. Cinta Karna pada Panchali dan Cinta Panchali pada Karna yang tidak berhenti sampai pada kematian keduanya harus menjadi beban yang ditanggung keduanya seumur hidupnya. Mungkin dalam hal ini penulis ingin berpesan bahwa emosi wanita memiliki yang mudah tersulut harus menjadi perhatian dan dikendalikan. Sehingga wanita dengan kepandaian luar biasa seperti Panchali pun tidak akan dapat memanfaatkan kepandaiannya dan logikanya saat emosinya tersulut.

Bharatayudha atau Mahabharata dikenal sebagai dunia lelaki. Lelaki sebagai pusat perseteruan, strategi Karna melawan Dorna, Pandu dengan Destarastra, Yudhistira dengan Duryudana, Arjuna dengan Karna dan tokoh-tokoh lain yang didominasi laki-laki. Sosok Srikandi sebagai ksatria pun sesungguhnya bukan Srikandi sebagai Srikandi. Dominasi laki-laki tersebut menempatkan tokoh wanita dalam Mahabharata bukan sebagai tokoh sentral secara umum dan membuat kaum wanita tidak berada dalam posisi yang setara dengan kaum lelaki. Ketidak setaraan ini menimbulkan ketidak adilan dan kesewenangan. Ketidak adilan dan kesewenangan ini membentuk sifat Panchali.

Sesungguhnya, jiwa Panchali telah mati sepanjang jalan menuju pembentukan perang keluarga Bharata atau Bharatayudha. Separuh diri Panchali mati ketika semua yang dicintai dan mencintainya diam ketika dirinya teraniayia, dipermalukan dan sangat mengharapkan pertolongan. Separuhnya lagi musnah bersama dengan musnahnya istana khayalannya di Indraphrasta. Setelah itu, jalan hidupnya hanya mengikuti kemanapun dendam membawanya.

Bagi Panchali, merupakan kewajiban Yudhistira sebagai suami mengembalikan kejayaannya. Oleh karena itu dalam pengembarannya, Panchali selalu mencaci dan mencemoohkan suaminya untuk memelihara dendam dan mengembalikan kejayaan Panchali.

Segala kata dan nasihat bijak Khresna tidak mampu menyurutkan dendamnya. Logika dan kepandaian memberi Panchali kemampuan untuk mengerti dan memahami. Tetapi dendam membakar semua pengertian itu. Kata-kata yang dikeluarkan mulutnya menjadi setajam sembilu bertolak belakang dengan hatinya yang terkadang masih mau mendengar logikanya.

Digambarkan juga perseteruan menantu (Panchali) dengan ego dan sifat otoriter ibu mertua (Kunti), pengorbanan Gandari sebagai seorang istri yang mendampingi Destarastra, kepasrahan dan ketabahan Byasa melihat anak keturunannya saling bunuh, sikap para dewa dan berbagai kalimat bijak Kresna menjadi bagian lain dari cerita ini yang menarik. Sifat alamiah wanita yang digambarkan dalam perilaku Panchali juga diperlihatkan oleh penulisnya. Terlihat bagaimana Panchali tidak dapat menahan rasa cemburunya melihat Arjuna mengambil wanita lain sebagai istrinya dan memperlakukannya dengan kasih saying. Diperlihatkan pula bagaimana Panchali tidak mampu menolak perhatian lembut Bima sebagai suami yang paling menyayanginya, walaupun sesungguhnya dalam hati Panchali mencintai orang lain.

Pengertian kita mengenai Bharatayudha menjadi lebih baik dengan membaca buku ini. Kita tahu jalannya cerita Mahabharata secara garis besar. Tentu buku tipis ini tidak mungkin mampu menceriterakan Mahabharata secara detail. Terlalu banyak penggalan cerita Mahabharata yang tidak mungkin bisa diceritakan oleh buku tipis ini.

Bagi saya, buku ini bagus untuk mengerti mengapa Bharatayudha bisa terjadi. Dalam tulisan saya sebelumnya, telah dibahas mengenai cerita Ramayana. Tulisan Chitra Banerjee ini tersusun lebih baik. Hal ini mungkin disebabkan latar belakang dan niat penulisnya. Dalam Ramayana, niat memberi nasihat dan ajaran sangat menonjol sehingga mengurangi keteraturan dalam bertutur dan penulisannya. Hal ini mungkin disebabkan latar belakang penulisnya yang seorang agamawan.

Origins of The Universe - Stephen Hawking - Is God Play Dice?

2009-10-29T13:13:00.007+07:00

This is only a translation from Stephen Hawking's lecture but this is very interesting.

He explain a very difficult subject in a simple. way. One interesting remark from him is : God really does play dice , instead of Einstein said : God really does not play dice.

This is really interesting. Please read the whole. Thank you.

Origins of the universe: Stephen Hawking's J. Robert Oppenheimer Lecture

Can you hear me?

According to the Boshongo people of central Africa, in the beginning there was only darkness, water, and the great god One day Bumba, in pain from a stomach ache, vomited up the sun. The sun dried up some of the water, leaving land. Still in pain, Bumba vomited up the moon, the stars, and then some animals. The leopard, the crocodile, the turtle, and, finally man.

This creation myth, like many others, tries to answer the questions we all ask. Why are we here? Where did we come from? The answer generally given, was that humans were of comparatively recent origin, because it must have been obvious, even at early times, that the human race was improving in knowledge and technology. So it can't have been around that long, or it would have progressed even more. For example, according to Bishop Usher, the Book of Genesis placed the creation of the world at 9 in the morning, on October the 27th, 4,004 BC. On the other hand, the physical surroundings, like mountains and rivers, change very little in a human life time. They were therefore thought to be a constant background, and either to have existed for ever as an empty landscape, or to have been created at the same time as the humans.

Not everyone however, was happy with the idea that the universe had a beginning. For example, Aristotle, the most famous of the Greek philosophers, believed the universe had existed for ever. Something eternal, is more perfect than something created. He suggested the reason we see progress, was that floods, or other natural disasters, had repeatedly set civilization back to the beginning. The motivation for believing in an eternal universe, was the desire to avoid invoking divine intervention, to create the universe, and set it going. Conversely, those who believed the universe had a beginning, used it as an argument for the existence of God, as the first cause, or prime mover of the universe.

If one believed that the universe had a beginning, the obvious question was, What happened before the beginning? What was God doing before He made the world? Was He preparing Hell for people who asked such questions? The problem of whether or not the universe had a beginning, was a great concern to the German philosopher, Immanuel Kant. He felt there were logical contradictions, or Antimonies, either way. If the universe had a beginning, why did it wait an infinite time before it began? He called that the thesis. On the other hand, if the universe had existed for ever, why did it take an infinite time to reach the present stage? He called that the anti thesis. Both the thesis, and the anti thesis, depended on Kant's assumption, along with almost everyone else, that time was Absolute. That is to say, it went from the infinite past, to the infinite future, independently of any universe that might or might not exist in this background.

This is still the picture in the mind of many scientists today. However in 1915, Einstein introduced his revolutionary General Theory of Relativity. In this, space and time were no longer Absolute, no longer a fixed background to events. Instead, they were dynamical quantities that were shaped by the matter and energy in the universe. They were defined only within the universe, so it made no sense to talk of a time before the universe began. It would be like asking for a point south of the South Pole. It is not defined.

If the universe was essentially unchanging in time, as was generally assumed before the 1920s, there would be no reason that time should not be defined arbitrarily far back. Any so-called beginning of the universe, would be artificial, in the sense that one could extend the history back to earlier times. Thus it might be that the universe was created last year, but with all the memories and physical evidence, to look like it was much older. This raises deep philosophical questions about the meaning of existence. I shall deal with these by adopting what is called, the positivist approach. In this, the idea is that we interpret the input from our senses in terms of a model we make of the world. One can not ask whether the model represents reality, only whether it works. A model is a good model, if first it interprets a wide range of observations, in terms of a simple and elegant model. And second, if the model makes definite predictions that can be tested, and possibly falsified, by observation.

In terms of the positivist approach, one can compare two models of the universe. One in which the universe was created last year, and one in which the universe existed much longer. The model in which the universe existed for longer than a year, can explain things like identical twins, that have a common cause more than a year ago. On the other hand, the model in which the universe was created last year, can not explain such events. So the first model is better. One can not ask whether the universe really existed before a year ago, or just appeared to. In the positivist approach, they are the same.

In an unchanging universe, there would be no natural starting point. The situation changed radically however, when Edwin Hubble began to make observations with the hundred inch telescope on Mount Wilson, in the 1920s.

Hubble found that stars are not uniformly distributed throughout space, but are gathered together in vast collections called galaxies.

By measuring the light from galaxies, Hubble could determine their velocities. He was expecting that as many galaxies would be moving towards us, as were moving away. This is what one would have in a universe that was unchanging with time. But to his surprise, Hubble found that nearly all the galaxies were moving away from us. Moreover, the further galaxies were from us, the faster they were moving away. The universe was not unchanging with time, as everyone had thought previously. It was expanding. The distance between distant galaxies, was increasing with time.

The expansion of the universe, was one of the most important intellectual discoveries of the 20th century, or of any century. It transformed the debate about whether the universe had a beginning. If galaxies are moving apart now, they must have been closer together in the past. If their speed had been constant, they would all have been on top of one another, about 15 billion years ago. Was this, the beginning of the universe.

Many scientists were still unhappy with the universe having a beginning, because it seemed to imply that physics broke down. One would have to invoke an outside agency, which for convenience, one can call God, to determine how the universe began. They therefore advanced theories in which the universe was expanding at the present time, but didn't have a beginning. One was the Steady State theory, proposed by Bondi, Gold, and Hoyle in 1948.

In the Steady State theory, as galaxies moved apart, the idea was that new galaxies would form from matter that was supposed to be continually being created throughout space. The universe would have existed for ever, and would have looked the same at all times. This last property had the great virtue, from a positivist point of view, of being a definite prediction, that could be tested by observation. The Cambridge radio astronomy group, under Martin Ryle, did a survey of weak radio sources in the early 1960s. These were distributed fairly uniformly across the sky, indicating that most of the sources, lay outside our galaxy. The weaker sources would be further away, on average.

The Steady State theory predicted the shape of the graph of the number of sources, against source Strength. But the observations showed more faint sources than predicted, indicating that the density sources was higher in the past. This was contrary to the basic assumption of the Steady State theory, that everything was constant in time. For this, and other reasons, the Steady State theory was abandoned.

Another attempt to avoid the universe having a beginning, was the suggestion that there was a previous contracting phase, but because of rotation and local irregularities, the matter would not all fall to the same point. Instead, different parts of the matter would miss each other, and the universe would expand again, with the density remaining finite. Two Russians, Lifshitz and Khalatnikov, actually claimed to have proved that a general contraction without exact symmetry, would always lead to a bounce, with the density remaining finite. This result was very convenient for Marxist Leninist dialectical materialism, because it avoided awkward questions about the creation of the universe. It therefore became an article of faith for Soviet scientists.

When Lifshitz and Khalatnikov published their claim, I was a 21-year-old research student, looking for something to complete my PhD thesis. I didn't believe their so-called proof, and set out with Roger Penrose to develop new mathematical techniques to study the question. We showed that the universe couldn't bounce. If Einstein's General Theory of Relativity is correct, there will be a singularity, a point of infinite density and space-time curvature, where time has a beginning.

Observational evidence to confirm the idea that the universe had a very dense beginning, came in October 1965, a few months after my first singularity result, with the discovery of a faint background of microwaves throughout space. These microwaves are the same as those in your microwave oven, but very much less powerful. They would heat your pizza only to minus 271 point 3 degrees centigrade, not much good for defrosting the pizza, let alone cooking it. You can actually observe these microwaves yourself. Set your television to an empty channel. A few percent of the snow you see on the screen, will be caused by this background of microwaves. The only reasonable interpretation of the background, is that it is radiation left over from an early very hot and dense state. As the universe expanded, the radiation would have cooled until it is just the faint remnant we observe today.

Although the singularity theorems of Penrose and myself, predicted that the universe had a beginning, they didn't say how it had begun. The equations of General Relativity would break down at the singularity. Thus Einstein's theory can not predict how the universe will begin, but only how it will evolve once it has begun. There are two attitudes one can take to the results of Penrose and myself. One is to that God chose how the universe began for reasons we could not understand. This was the view of Pope John Paul. At a conference on cosmology in the Vatican, the Pope told the delegates that it was OK to study the universe after it began but they should not inquire into the beginning itself, because that was the moment of creation, and the work of God. I was glad he didn't realize I had presented a paper at the conference, suggesting how the universe began. I didn't fancy the thought of being handed over to the Inquisition, like Galileo.

The other interpretation of our results, which is favored by most scientists, is that it indicates that the General Theory of Relativity, breaks down in the very strong gravitational fields in the early universe. It has to be replaced by a more complete theory. One would expect this anyway, because General Relativity does not take account of the small scale structure of matter, which is governed by quantum theory. This does not matter normally, because the scale of the universe, is enormous compared to the microscopic scales of quantum theory. But when the universe is the Planck size, a billion trillion trillionth of a centimeter, the two scales are the same, and quantum theory has to be taken into account.

In order to understand the Origin of the universe, we need to combine the General Theory of Relativity, with quantum theory. The best way of doing so, seems to be to use Feynman's idea of a sum over histories. Richard Feynman was a colorful character, who played the bongo drums in a strip joint in Pasadena, and was a brilliant physicist at the California Institute of Technology. He proposed that a system got from a state A, to a state B, by every possible path or history.

Each path or history, has a certain amplitude or intensity, and the probability of the system going from A- to B, is given by adding up the amplitudes for each path. There will be a history in which the moon is made of blue cheese, but the amplitude is low, which is bad news for mice.

The probability for a state of the universe at the present time, is given by adding up the amplitudes for all the histories that end with that state. But how did the histories start. This is the Origin question in another guise. Does it require a Creator to decree how the universe began. Or is the initial state of the universe, determined by a law of science.

In fact, this question would arise even if the histories of the universe went back to the infinite past. But it is more immediate if the universe began only 15 billion years ago. The problem of what happens at the beginning of time, is a bit like the question of what happened at the edge of the world, when people thought the world was flat. Is the world a flat plate, with the sea pouring over the edge. I have tested this experimentally. I have been round the world, and I have not fallen off.

As we all know, the problem of what happens at the edge of the world, was solved when people realized that the world was not a flat plate, but a curved surface. Time however, seemed to be different. It appeared to be separate from space, and to be like a model railway track. If it had a beginning, there would have to be someone to set the trains going.

Einstein's General Theory of Relativity, unified time and space as space-time, but time was still different from space, and was like a corridor, which either had a beginning and end, or went on for ever. However, when one combines General Relativity with Quantum Theory, Jim Hartle and I, realized that time can behave like another direction in space under extreme conditions. This means one can get rid of the problem of time having a beginning, in a similar way in which we got rid of the edge of the world. Suppose the beginning of the universe, was like the south pole of the Earth , with degrees of latitude, playing the role of time. The universe would start as a point at the South Pole. As one moves north, the circles of constant latitude, representing the size of the universe, would expand. To ask what happened before the beginning of the universe, would become a meaningless question, because there is nothing south of the South Pole.

Time, as measured in degrees of latitude, would have a beginning at the South Pole, but the South Pole is much like any other point, at least so I have been told. I have been to Antarctica, but not to the South Pole.

The same laws of Nature hold at the South Pole, as in other places. This would remove the age-old objection to the universe having a beginning, that it would be a place where the normal laws broke down. The beginning of the universe, would be governed by the laws of science.

The picture Jim Hartle and I developed, of the spontaneous quantum creation of the universe, would be a bit like the formation of bubbles of steam in boiling water. The idea is that the most probable histories of the universe, would be like the surfaces of the bubbles. Many small bubbles would appear, and then disappear again. These would correspond to mini universes that would expand, but would collapse again while still of microscopic size. They are possible alternative universes, but they are not of much interest since they do not last long enough to develop galaxies and stars, let alone intelligent life. A few of the little bubbles, however, with grow to a certain size at which they are safe from recollapse. They will continue to expand at an ever increasing rate, and will form the bubbles we see. They will correspond to universes that would start off expanding at an ever increasing rate. This is called inflation, like the way prices go up every year.

The world record for inflation, was in Germany after the First World War. Prices rose by a factor of ten million in a period of 18 months. But that was nothing compared to inflation in the early universe. The universe expanded by a factor of million trillion trillion in a tiny fraction of a second. Unlike inflation in prices, inflation in the early universe was a very good thing. It produced a very large, and uniform universe, just as we observe. However, it would not be completely uniform. In the sum over histories, histories that are very slightly irregular, will have almost as high probabilities as the completely uniform and regular history. The theory therefore predicts that the early universe is likely to be slightly non-uniform. These irregularities would produce small variations in the intensity of the microwave background from different directions. The microwave background has been observed by the Map satellite, and was found to have exactly the kind of variations predicted. So we know we are on the right lines.
The irregularities in the early universe, will mean that some regions will have slightly higher density than others. The gravitational attraction of the extra density, will slow the expansion of the region, and can eventually cause the region to collapse to form galaxies and stars. So look well at the map of the microwave sky. It is the blue print for all the structure in the universe. We are the product of quantum fluctuations in the very early universe. God really does play dice.

We have made tremendous progress in cosmology in the last hundred years. The General Theory of Relativity, and the discovery of the expansion of the universe, shattered the old picture of an ever existing, and ever lasting universe. Instead, general relativity predicted that the universe, and time itself, would begin in the big bang. It also predicted that time would come to an end in black holes. The discovery of the cosmic microwave background, and observations of black holes, support these conclusions. This is a profound change in our picture of the universe, and of reality itself.

Although the General Theory of Relativity, predicted that the universe must have come from a period of high curvature in the past, it could not predict how the universe would emerge from the big bang. Thus general relativity on its own, can not answer the central question in cosmology, Why is the universe, the way it is. However, if general relativity is combined with quantum theory, it may be possible to predict how the universe would start. It would initially expand at an ever increasing rate. During this so called inflationary period, the marriage of the two theories predicted that small fluctuations would develop, and lead to the formation of galaxies, stars, and all the other structure in the universe. This is confirmed by observations of small non uniformities in the cosmic microwave background, with exactly the predicted properties. So it seems we are on our way to understanding the origin of the universe, though much more work will be needed. A new window on the very early universe, will be opened when we can detect gravitational waves by accurately measuring the distances between space craft. Gravitational waves propagate freely to us from earliest times, unimpeded by any intervening material. By contrast, light is scattered many times by free electrons. The scattering goes on until the electrons freeze out, after 300,000 years.

Despite having had some great successes, not everything is solved. We do not yet have a good theoretical understanding, of the observations that the expansion of the universe, is accelerating again, after a long period of slowing down. Without such an understanding, we can not be sure of the future of the universe. Will it continue to expand forever? Is inflation a law of Nature? Or will the universe eventually collapse again? New observational results, and theoretical advances, are coming in rapidly. Cosmology is a very exciting and active subject. We are getting close to answering the age old questions. Why are we here? Where did we come from?

Thank you for listening to me.

Asal usul alam semesta: Kuliah Stephen Hawking : J. Robert Oppenheimer

- Kuliah Stephen Hawking di Universitas Cambrige tanggal 13 Maret 2007.

Dapatkah Anda mendengar saya?

Menurut orang Boshongo yang tinggal di Afrika Tengah, pada awalnya hanya ada kegelapan, air dan dewa besar Bumba. Suatu hari Bumba sakit perut dan memuntahkan matahari. Matahari kemudian mengering menguapkan airnya dan meninggalkan tanah sebagai sisanya. Masih dalam kesakitan, Bumba memuntahkan bulan, bintang dan kemudian beberapa binatang. Macan tutul, buaya, penyu dan akhirnya manusia.

Mitos penciptaan ini, seperti banyak mitos lain, mencoba untuk menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan yang kami tanyakan. Mengapa kita di sini? darimana kita berasal? Umumnya jawaban yang diberikan, adalah bahwa manusia itu dari asal terbaru (belum terlalu lama. Penj), hal itu sudah cukup jelas, bahkan pada masa-masa awal, bahwa ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi ras manusia sedang meningkat. Jadi tidak bisa sudah ada sejak lama, atau ras yang telah berkembang bahkan lebih. Sebagai contoh, menurut Uskup Usher, Kitab Kejadian menempatkan penciptaan dunia pada pukul 9 pagi, tanggal 27 Oktober, 4.004 SM. Di sisi lain, lingkungan fisik, seperti gunung-gunung dan sungai-sungai, berubah sangat sedikit dalam waktu kehidupan manusia. Oleh karena itu mereka dianggap sebagai latar belakang konstan, dan bahkan akan ada selamanya sebagai dataran kosong, atau telah diciptakan pada waktu yang sama dengan manusia.

Namun, bagaimanapun, tidak semua orang senang dengan gagasan bahwa alam semesta memiliki awal. Sebagai contoh, Aristoteles, filsuf Yunani yang paling terkenal, percaya bahwa alam semesta telah ada selamanya. Sesuatu yang abadi, adalah lebih sempurna daripada sesuatu yang diciptakan. Dia menyarankan alasan kita melihat kemajuan, adalah bahwa banjir, atau bencana alam lainnya, telah berulang kali menyebabkan peradaban kembali ke awal. Motivasi untuk percaya alam semesta yang abadi, adalah hasrat untuk menghindari memohon campur tangan Ilahi, untuk menciptakan alam semesta, dan membiarkannya berjalan. Sebaliknya, mereka yang mempercayai alam semesta memiliki awal, menggunakannya sebagai argumen untuk keberadaan Tuhan, sebagai penyebab pertama atau penggerak utama alam semesta.

Jika seseorang percaya bahwa alam semesta memiliki awal, pertanyaan yang jelas adalah, Apa yang terjadi sebelum awal? Apa yang Tuhan lakukan sebelum Dia menciptakan dunia? Apakah Dia menyiapkan neraka untuk orang-orang yang menanyakan pertanyaan seperti itu? Masalah apakah alam semesta memiliki awal atau tidak, menjadi perhatian besar bagi filosof Jerman, Immanuel Kant. Bagimanapun, dia merasa ada kontradiksi logis, atau Antimonies. Jika alam semesta memiliki awal, mengapa ia menunggu waktu tak terbatas sebelum mulai? Hal itu disebut sebagai tesis. Di sisi lain, jika alam semesta telah ada selamanya, mengapa diperlukan waktu yang tidak terbatas untuk mencapai tahap sekarang? Hal itu disebut sebagai anti tesis. Kedua hal tersebut, baik tesis dan anti tesis, bergantung pada asumsi Kant, bersama dengan hampir semua orang, bahwa waktu adalah Absolut. Maksudnya, hal itu berasal dari masa lalu yang tak terbatas, menuju masa depan yang tak terbatas, secara bebas (atau terpisah, penj.) dari alam semesta apapun yang mungkin ada atau mungkin tidak ada sebagai latar belakang.
Ini masih menjadi gambaran dalam pikiran banyak ilmuwan hingga hari ini. Namun pada tahun 1915, Einstein memperkenalkan Teori Relativitas Umum yang revolusioner. Dalam hal ini, ruang dan waktu tidak lagi Absolut, tidak lagi merupakan latar belakang yang tetap dari suatu peristiwa. Sebaliknya, mereka dinamis, dibentuk oleh materi dan energi di alam semesta. Mereka didefinisikan hanya di dalam alam semesta, sehingga mustahil membicarakan waktu sebelum alam semesta dimulai. Ini akan seperti menentukan titik selatan dari Kutub Selatan. Itu tidak didefinisikan.

Jika alam semesta secara mendasar tidak berubah, sebagaimana umumnya diasumsikan sebelum tahun 1920-an, tidak akan ada alasan bahwa waktu tidak seharusnya didefinisikan jauh ke belakang. Setiap apa yang disebut awal alam semesta, akan artifisial, dalam arti bahwa seseorang dapat memperpanjang sejarah kembali ke masa-masa sebelumnya. Jadi mungkin bahwa alam semesta diciptakan tahun lalu, tapi dengan semua kenangan dan bukti fisik, agar terlihat jauh lebih tua. Hal ini menimbulkan pertanyaan-pertanyaan filosofis mendalam mengenai makna keberadaan. Saya akan membahas ini dengan mengadopsi apa yang disebut, pendekatan positivis. Dalam hal ini, idenya adalah bahwa kita menafsirkan masukan dari indera kita dalam kerangka model yang kita buat di dunia. Seseorang tidak dapat menanyakan apakah model tersebut mewakili kenyataannya, hanya apakah itu sesuai. Sebuah model dikatakan sebagai model yang baik, jika pertama ia menafsirkan sebuah kisaran observasi yang luas, dalam model yang sederhana dan elegan. Dan kedua, jika model tersebut membuat perkiraan pasti yang dapat diuji, dan mungkin ditiru, oleh observasi.

Dalam hal pendekatan positivis, seseorang dapat membandingkan dua model alam semesta. Satu di mana alam semesta diciptakan tahun lalu, dan satu di mana alam semesta ada lebih lama lagi. Model di mana alam semesta ada lebih dari satu tahun lalu, dapat menjelaskan hal-hal seperti kembar identik, yang memiliki penyebab yang sama lebih dari setahun yang lalu. Di sisi lain, model di mana alam semesta diciptakan pada tahun lalu, tidak dapat menjelaskan peristiwa tersebut. Jadi model pertama lebih baik. Seseorang tidak dapat menanyakan apakah alam semesta benar-benar ada sebelum setahun yang lalu, atau hanya terlihat seperti itu. Dalam pendekatan positivis, mereka adalah sama.

Dalam alam semesta yang tidak berubah, tidak akan ada titik awal alami. Namu situasi berubah secara radikal, ketika Edwin Hubble mulai melakukan pengamatan dengan teleskop seratus inchi di Gunung Wilson, pada tahun1920-an.
Hubble menemukan bahwa bintang-bintang tidak secara seragam terdistribusi di seluruh ruang angkasa, tapi berkelompok dalam suatu kumpulan yang sangat luas yang disebut galaksi.

Dengan mengukur cahaya yang berasal dari galaksi, Hubble dapat menentukan kecepatannya. Dia mengharapkan bahwa banyak galaksi akan bergerak menuju ke arah kami, ada juga yang bergerak menjauh. Ini adalah apa yang akan ada di alam semesta yang tidak berubah dengan waktu. Tapi yang tak terduga bahwa, Hubble menemukan bahwa hampir semua galaksi bergerak menjauhi kita. Selain itu, semakin jauh galaksi dari kita, semakin cepat mereka bergerak menjauh. Alam semesta tidak tidak-berubah dengan waktu, seperti yang disangkakan sebelumnya. Alam semesta seperti mengembang. Jarak antara galaksi jauh, meningkat dengan waktu.

Pengembangan alam semesta, adalah salah satu penemuan intelektual terpenting dari abad ke-20, atau dari abad manapun. Ini mengubah perdebatan mengenai apakah alam semesta memiliki awal. Jika galaksi bergerak menjauh sekarang, dimasa lalu mereka pastilah lebih dekat. Jika kecepatan mereka tetap, mereka semua akan berada satu diatas yang lain, sekitar 15 milyar tahun yang lalu. Apakah ini, awal alam semesta.

Banyak ilmuwan yang masih tidak senang dengan alam semesta yang memiliki awal, karena sepertinya menyiratkan bahwa ilmu fisika telah hancur. Seseorang harus meminta bantuan lain, untuk memudahkan, kita dapat memanggil Allah, untuk menentukan bagaimana alam semesta dimulai. Oleh karena itu dari teori-teori maju mereka bahwa alam semesta mengembang hingga saat saat ini, tapi tidak mempunyai awal. Salah satunya adalah Teori Keadaan Tunak, yang diusulkan oleh Bondi, Gold, dan Hoyle tahun 1948.

Dalam Teori Keadaan Tunak, galaksi bergerak menjauh, gagasannya adalah bahwa galaksi baru akan terbentuk dari materi yang terus-menerus diciptakan di seluruh alam semesta. Alam semesta akan ada untuk selama-lamanya, dan akan terlihat sama sepanjang waktu. Hal terakhir ini memiliki keutamaan yang besar, dari sudut pandang positivis, menjadi sebuah dugaan pasti, yang dapat diuji dengan pengamatan. Kelompok Astronomi dari Cambridge, yang dipimpin oleh Martin Ryle, melakukan survei terhadap sumber-sumber radio lemah di awal tahun 1960-an. Gelombang radio tersebut tersebar merata di langit, menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar sumber-sumber radio, terletak di luar galaksi kita. Sumber-sumber yang lebih lemah rata-rata lebih jauh.

Teori Keadaan Tunak memprediksikan jumlah sumber terhadap kekuatan sumber dalam bentuk grafik. Tetapi pengamatan memperlihatkan lebih banyak sumber-sumber samar daripada yang diperkirakan, menunjukkan bahwa kepadatan sumber-sumber tersebut lebih tinggi di masa lalu. Ini bertentangan dengan asumsi dasar dari Teori Kedaan Tunak, bahwa segalanya konstan sepanjang waktu. Berdasarkan hal ini, dan alasan lainnya, Teori Keadaan Tunak ditinggalkan.

Upaya lain untuk menghindari alam semesta memiliki awal, adalah usulan bahwa ada fase kontraksi sebelumnya, tetapi karena rotasi dan ketidakteraturan setempat, materi tidak akan semua jatuh ke titik yang sama. Sebaliknya, bagian-bagian materi yang berbeda akan kehilangan satu sama lain, dan alam semesta akan berkembang lagi, dengan kepadatan terbatas. Dua ilmuwan Rusia, Lifshitz dan Khalatnikov, menyatakan telah membuktikan bahwa kontraksi umum tanpa simetri yang persis, akan selalu menghasilkan sebuah pantulan, dengan kepadatan terbatas. Hasil ini sangat nyaman untuk Leninis Marxisme, karena menghindari pertanyaan-pertanyaan canggung mengenai penciptaan alam semesta. Karena itu menjadi sebuah artikel panduan bagi ilmuwan Soviet.

Ketika Lifshitz dan Khalatnikov menerbitkan teori mereka, saya mahasiswa riset berusia 21 tahun, mencari sesuatu untuk menyelesaikan tesis PhD. Aku tidak percaya apa yang disebut bukti, dan bersama Roger Penrose mengembangkan teknik matematika baru untuk mempelajari pertanyaan tersebut. Kami memperlihatkan bahwa alam semesta tidak dapat memantul. Jika teori Einstein mengenai Relativitas Umum benar, akan ada sebuah keganjilan, maka ada singularitas, suatu titik dengan kepadatan tak terbatas dan lengkungan ruang-waktu, di mana waktu mempunyai awal.

Bukti pengamatan untuk mengkonfirmasi gagasan bahwa alam semesta memiliki awal dengan kepadatan tinggi, datang pada bulan Oktober 1965, beberapa bulan setelah hasil singularitas saya yang pertama, dengan penemuan dari sebuah latar gelombang mikro lemah di seluruh ruang. Gelombang mikro ini sama seperti yang terdapat dalam oven microwave Anda, tapi sangat lemah. Gelombang micro tersebut akan memanaskan pizza anda hanya pada suhu minus 271,3 derajat Celcius, tidak terlalu baik untuk menghangatkan pizza, apalagi memasaknya. Anda sesungguhnya dapat mengamati sendiri gelombang mikro ini. Atur televisi anda pada saluran kosong. Beberapa persen dari “salju” yang Anda lihat pada layar, disebabkan oleh latar gelombang mikro ini. Satu-satunya penafsiran yang wajar dari hal tersebut, adalah bahwa radiasi tersebut tersisa dari awal sangat panas dan padat. Ketika alam semesta mengembang, radiasi akan mendingin sampai hanya sisa samar yang kita amati sekarang.

Walaupun teorema singularitas Penrose dan saya, memprediksi bahwa alam semesta memiliki awal, teorema tersebut tidak menjelaskan bagaimana dimulainya. Persamaan Relativitas Umum akan tidak berlaku di singularitas. Dengan demikian teori Einstein tidak dapat memprediksi bagaimana mulainya alam semesta, tetapi hanya bagaimana alam semesta mengembang setelah dimulai. Ada dua sikap yang bisa dilakukan untuk teorema Penrose dan saya. Salah satunya adalah bahwa Tuhan memilih bagaimana alam semesta dimulai dengan alasan yang kami tidak mengerti. Ini adalah pandangan Paus Yohanes Paulus pada sebuah konferensi tentang kosmologi di Vatikan. Paus mengatakan kepada para delegasi bahwa OK untuk mempelajari alam semesta setelah dimulai, tetapi tidak boleh menyelidiki awal itu sendiri, karena itu adalah saat penciptaan, dan itu pekerjaan Allah. Aku senang dia tidak menyadari bahwa saya telah mempresentasikan sebuah makalah pada konferensi tersebut, menyampaikan bagaimana alam semesta dimulai. Aku tidak suka membayangkan diserahkan pada Inkuisisi, seperti Galileo.

Interpretasi hasil kami lainnya, yang disukai oleh kebanyakan ilmuwan, adalah bahwa teorema tersebut menunjukkan bahwa Teori Relativitas Umum, tidak dapat menjelaskan keadaan pada daerah medan gravitasi yang sangat kuat di awal alam semesta. Teori Relativitas Umum tersebut harus diganti dengan teori yang lebih lengkap. Hal tersebut karena Teori Relativitas Umum tidak memperhitungkan struktur materi berskala kecil, yang diatur oleh teori kuantum. Secara normal hal itu bukan masalah, karena skala alam semesta, adalah sangat besar dibandingkan dengan skala mikroskopis dari teori kuantum. Tetapi ketika skala alam semesta menggunakan ukuran Planck, satu per milyar-triliun-triliun sentimeter, keduanya memiliki skala yang sama, dan teori kuantum harus diperhitungkan.

Untuk memahami Asal usul alam semesta, kita perlu mengkombinasikan Teori Relativitas Umum, dengan teori kuantum. Cara terbaik untuk melakukannya, tampaknya dengan menggunakan ide Feynman mengenai penjumlahan alur “sejarah”. Richard Feynman adalah karakter yang berwarna-warni, yang memainkan genderang bongo di Pasadena, dan seorang ahli fisika brilian pada Institut Teknologi California. Dia mengusulkan bahwa sebuah sistem didapatkan dari keadaan A, ke keadaan B, dengan setiap jalur atau sejarah yang memungkinkan.

Tiap jalur atau sejarah, mempunyai amplitudo atau intensitas tertentu, dan probabilitas untuk beralih dari A-menjadi B, ditentukan dengan menjumlahkan amplitudo untuk setiap jalur. Akan menjadi sejarah jika bulan terbuat dari keju biru, tetapi amplitudonya rendah, yang merupakan berita buruk bagi tikus.

Tingkat kemungkinan alam semesta seperti saat ini, ditentukan dengan menjumlahkan amplitudo untuk semua sejarah yang berakhir dengan keadaan tersebut. Tetapi bagaimana sejarah awalnya. Ini adalah pertanyaan Dasar secara samar. Apakah diperlukan Pencipta untuk memutuskan bagaimana alam semesta dimulai. Atau apakah keadaan awal alam semesta, ditentukan oleh hukum ilmu pengetahuan.

Pada kenyataannya, pertanyaan ini akan timbul bahkan jika sejarah-sejarah alam semesta kembali ke masa lalu yang tak terbatas. Tetapi itu lebih segera jika alam semesta dimulai hanya pada 15 milyar tahun yang lalu. Masalah apa yang terjadi pada awal waktu, adalah sedikit seperti pertanyaan tentang apa yang terjadi di ujung dunia, ketika orang mengira dunia datar. Apakah dunia sebuah piring datar, dengan laut mengalir di tepinya. Saya telah menguji hal ini secara langsung. Saya telah berkeliling dunia, dan saya tidak jatuh.

Seperti yang kita semua tahu, masalah apa yang terjadi di ujung dunia, dipecahkan ketika orang menyadari bahwa dunia bukanlah piring datar, namun permukaan melengkung. Waktu bagaimanapun, tampaknya berbeda. Tampaknya terpisah dari ruang, dan menjadi seperti sebuah model rel kereta api. Jika waktu memiliki awal, maka harus ada seseorang untuk mengatur tujuan kereta api.

Teori Relativitas Umum Einstein, mengenai keterpaduan ruang dan waktu sebagai ruang-waktu, tetapi waktu tetap berbeda dari ruang, dan seperti sebuah koridor, yang bisa memiliki awal dan akhir, atau berlangsung selama-lamanya. Namun, ketika Teori Relativitas Umum dengan Teori Kuantum dikombinasikan, oleh Jim Hartle dan saya, kami menyadari bahwa waktu dapat berperilaku seperti suatu sumbu lain dalam ruang pada kondisi ekstrim. Ini berarti orang dapat menyingkirkan masalah waktu yang memiliki awal, dalam cara yang sama di mana kita menyingkirkan ujung dunia. Misalkan awal alam semesta, seperti kutub selatan Bumi, dengan derajat lintang, memainkan peran sebagai waktu. Alam semesta dimulai pada sebuah titik di Kutub Selatan. Saat seseorang bergerak ke utara, lingkaran-lingkaran lintang, yang mewakili ukuran alam semesta, akan mengembang. Dengan mempertanyakan apa yang terjadi sebelum awal alam semesta, akan menjadi pertanyaan tak bermakna, karena tidak ada yang lebih selatan dari Kutub Selatan.

Waktu, sebagaimana diukur dalam derajat lintang, akan memiliki sebuah awal di Kutub Selatan, tetapi Kutub Selatan adalah seperti titik lain, setidaknya seperti yang sudah saya sampaikan. Saya telah ke Antartika, tetapi bukan ke Kutub Selatan.

Hukum Alam yang sama berlaku juga di Kutub Selatan, seperti di tempat-tempat lain. Ini akan menghilangkan sanggahan lama bahwa alam semesta berawal, bahwa itu akan menjadi tempat di mana hukum-hukum normal tidak berlaku. Awal alam semesta, akan diatur oleh hukum-hukum ilmu pengetahuan.

Gambaran yang saya dan Jim Hartle kembangkan, mengenai penciptaan spontan alam semesta secara quantum, akan menyerupai pembentukan gelembung uap dalam air mendidih. Idenya adalah bahwa sejarah-sejarah yang paling mungkin dari alam semesta, akan menjadi seperti permukaan gelembung. Banyak gelembung kecil akan muncul, dan kemudian menghilang lagi. Ini sesuai dengan alam semesta mini yang mengembang, tapi runtuh lagi ketika masih berukuran mikroskopis. Mereka adalah alternative alam semesta yang mungkin, tetapi mereka tidak banyak menarik karena mereka tidak bertahan cukup lama untuk mengembangkan galaksi dan bintang-bintang, apalagi kehidupan cerdas . Beberapa gelembung kecil, tumbuh sampai ukuran tertentu di mana mereka tidak akan menciut kembali. Mereka akan terus berkembang pada tingkat yang semakin meningkat, dan akan membentuk gelembung sebagaimana kita lihat. Mereka akan berhubungan dengan alam semesta – alam semesta yang akan berkembang semakin meningkat. Ini disebut inflasi, seperti harga yang naik setiap tahun.

Rekor dunia untuk inflasi, terjadi di Jerman setelah Perang Dunia Pertama. Harga naik dengan faktor sepuluh juta dalam periode 18 bulan. Tapi itu bukan apa-apa dibandingkan dengan inflasi di awal semesta. Alam semesta mengembang dengan faktor juta trilyun trilyun dalam sepersekian detik. Tidak seperti inflasi harga, inflasi dalam alam semesta awal adalah hal yang sangat baik. Inflasi ini menghasilkan alam semesta yang sangat besar dan seragam, seperti yang kita amati. Namun, tidak sepenuhnya seragam. Sepanjang sejarahnya, sejarah yang sedikit tidak beraturan, akan memiliki probabilitas yang hampir sama tinggi dengan sejarah yang sepenuhnya seragam dan umum. Oleh karena itu teori memprediksi bahwa alam semesta awal cenderung menjadi sedikit tidak seragam. Penyimpangan ini akan menghasilkan variasi kecil dalam intensitas gelombang latar belakang mikro dari arah yang berbeda. Gelombang latar mikro telah diamati menggunakan peta satelit, dan telah ditemukan secara tepat tepat jenis variasi yang diprediksikan. Jadi kita tahu bahwa kita berada pada jalur yang tepat.

Ketidak beraturan pada alam semesta awal, akan berarti bahwa beberapa daerah akan memiliki kerapatan yang sedikit lebih tinggi daripada yang lain. Gaya tarik gravitasi dari kepadatan ekstra, akan memperlambat ekspansi pada daerah tersebut, dan akhirnya dapat menyebabkan daerah tersebut runtuh membentuk galaksi dan bintang-bintang. Jadi lihat baik-baik peta langit microwave. Itu adalah cetak biru untuk semua struktur dalam alam semesta. Kita adalah produk dari fluktuasi kuantum di alam semesta yang sangat awal. Allah benar-benar bermain dadu

Kami telah membuat kemajuan luar biasa dalam kosmologi dalam seratus tahun terakhir ini. Teori Relativitas Umum, dan penemuan pengembangan alam semesta, menghancurkan gambaran lama yang pernah ada, dan alam semesta yang abadi. Sebagai gantinya, relativitas umum memprediksi bahwa alam semesta, dan waktu itu sendiri, dimulai saat terjadinya big bang. Hal ini juga memprediksi bahwa waktu akan berakhir dalam lubang hitam. Penemuan gelombang latar mikro kosmis, dan pengamatan lubang hitam, mendukung kesimpulan ini. Ini adalah perubahan mendasar dalam menggambarkan alam semesta kita, dan realitas itu sendiri.

Walaupun Teori Relativitas Umum, memprediksikan bahwa alam semesta berasal dari periode kelengkungan tinggi di masa lalu, teori ini tidak bisa memprediksi bagaimana alam semesta berawal dari Big Bang. Dengan demikian relativitas umum sendiri, tidak dapat menjawab pertanyaan pokok dalam kosmologi, Mengapa alam semesta seperti sekarang ini? Namun, jika relativitas umum dikombinasikan dengan teori kuantum, dimungkinkan untuk memprediksi bagaimana alam semesta dimulainya. Alam semesta pada awalnya berkembang terus dan semakin meningkat. Periode ini yang disebut periode inflasi, perkawinan dua teori tersebut memprediksikan bahwa fluktuasi kecil akan timbul, dan mengarah pada pembentukan galaksi, bintang, dan semua struktur lain dalam alam semesta. Ini ditegaskan oleh pengamatan ketidak-seragaman kecil dalam gelombang latar mikro kosmis, sesuai dengan sifat yang diprediksikan. Jadi sepertinya kita sedang dalam perjalanan untuk memahami asal usul alam semesta, walaupun dibutuhkan lebih banyak usaha. Sebuah jendela baru pada alam semesta sangat awal, akan terbuka ketika kita dapat mendeteksi gelombang-gelombang gravitasi dengan melakukan pengukuran secara akurat jarak antara pesawat ruang angkasa. Gelombang gravitasi menyebar secara bebas kepada kita sejak waktu paling awal, yang terlepas dari gangguan materi apapun. Sebaliknya, cahaya tersebar banyak kali oleh elektron bebas. Hamburan berlangsung sampai elektron terdepak keluar, setelah 300.000 tahun.

Meskipun telah menghasilkan beberapa keberhasilan besar, tidak semua hal terpecahkan. Kita belum memiliki pemahaman teoritis yang baik, dari pengamatan pengembangan alam semesta, alam semseta mengalami percepatan lagi, setelah suatu periode yang lama mengalami perlambatan Tanpa adanya pemahaman tersebut, kita tidak bisa yakin akan masa depan alam semesta. Akankah terus berkembang selamanya? Apakah Inflasi merupakan hukum Alam? Atau akankah alam semesta pada akhirnya runtuh lagi? Hasil pengamatan baru, dan kemajuan teoritis, akan datang dengan cepat. Kosmologi adalah hal yang sangat menarik dan aktif. Kita akan semakin dekat untuk menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan lama. Mengapa kita di sini? Dari mana asal kita?

Terima kasih telah mendengarkan saya.

Arab and Islamic Astronomy

2009-10-16T16:01:00.004+07:00

Ketika peradaban Barat mengalami zaman kegelapan, antara tahun 700-1200 Masehi, kerajaan Islam membentang dari Asia Tengah hingga ke selatan Eropa. Ilmu Pengetahuan saat itu sangat dihargai, dan para Ilmuwan Muslim memberikan andil besar bagi perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan matematika. Banyak karya-karya klasik bangsa Yunani dan Romawi diterjemahkan ke dalam bahasa Arab yang memperluas khasanah ide para ilmuwan Muslim. Sebagai contoh, model alam semesta Ptolomeus yang menyatakan bahwa Bumi adalah pusat alam semesta (Geo Sentris) dibentuk dengan menggunakan dasar astronomi Arab dan Islam, tetapi beberapa ahli astronomi Muslim jauh sebelumnya telah membuat pengamatan dan menghasilkan perhitungan yang jauh lebih akurat daripada yang dilakukan oleh Ptolomeus.

Between the years 700-1200 AD, western civilization is in the dark ages and the Islamic empire stretching from Central Asia to southern Europe. Science was highly valued, and the Muslim scientists contributed greatly to the development of science and mathematics. Many classic works of the Greeks and the Romans translated into Arabic and expanded the idea of the Muslim Scientists. For example, the Ptolemy’s model of Universe which states that the Earth was the center of the Universe (Geo Sentris) formed on the basis of the Arab and Islamic Astronomy, but some Islamic Astronomers have been made much earlier observations and yield much more accurate calculations than that done by the Ptolemy.

Mungkin salah satu aspek yang paling menarik dari Astronomi Islam adalah fakta bahwa salah satu dasar pembangunan Ilmu Pengetahuan Astronomi Islam adalah ilmu-ilmu yang berasal dari dua kebudayaan besar yaitu, Yunani dan Indian. Perpaduan dan pengembangan ide-ide yang berbeda dari dua budaya besar ini seringkali mengarahkan ke pembentukan sebuah ilmu baru yang kemudian sangat mempengaruhi penjelajahan ilmiah Barat yang dimulai pada zaman Renaissance.

Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of Islamic Astronomy is the fact that one of the basic development of Islamic Astronomy Science is it built from two major cultures those are, Greek and Indian. The combination and development of different ideas from these two great cultures often leads to the formation of a new science which later greatly influenced Western scientific exploration that began in the Renaissance.

Tujuan Astronomi Islam – The Purposes of Islamic Astronomy

Mungkin salah satu alasan penting bagi Umat Islam dalam mempelajari langit dan fenomenanya dengan sangat detail adalah untuk keperluan ibadah yaitu untuk melakukan perhitungan dan penentuan waktu ibadah yang tepat. Agama Islam memerintahkan pemeluknya untuk melaksanakan sholat 5 kali dalam satu hari pada waktu-waktu yang telah ditentukan. Waktu-waktu tersebut mengacu pada posisi tertentu dari Matahari. Pengetahuan Astronomi mengenai waktu ini menjaga ketepatan waktu untuk setiap event keagamaan dan menjaga keteraturannya dari masa kemasa.

Perhaps one important reason for Muslims in studying the heavens and the phenomenon with great detail is for the purpose of worship is to perform calculations and determine the appropriate time of worship. Islamic religion commands its followers to perform their praying - shollat 5 times a day at defined times. These times refer to a specific position of the Sun. This Astronomical knowledge about time maintaining the timeliness of any religious event and maintain its regularity from time to time.

Berdasarkan pengetahuan Astronomi ini dihitung dan ditentukan waktu yang paling tepat untuk melakukan sholat, pergantian hari, waktu pelaksanaan ibadah dan ritual keagamaan lainnya seperti Bulan Puasa atau Ramadhan, Idhul Fitri, pergantian tanggal dan sebagainya. Dalam Kitab suci Umat Islam, Al Quran Al Karim, sering ditemui penjelasan yang terkait dengan Alam Semesta atau tata surya yang menjadi referensi ilmu pengetahuan dan tradisi Islam dan Astronomi Islam secara umum.

Based on the knowledge of Astronomy is calculated and determined the most appropriate time for praying, change the day, time of worship and other religious rituals such as fasting or Ramadan Month, Idhl Fithr, date and other things. In The Muslim holy book, Al Quran Al Karim, often found explanations associated with the Universe or the Solar System which is used as reference for Islamic traditions and Islamic astronomy in general.

Pengetahuan penting lain yang digunakan dalam keagamaan yang terkait dengan Astronomi adalah penentuan lintang dan bujur. Bintang-bintang digunakan sebagai pemandu, antara lain bintang kutub – atau rasi Gubuk Penceng. Beberapa tabel telah disusun yang berisi data bujur dan lintang kota-kota penting di dunia Islam. Dengan menggunakan data tersebut, umat Islam bisa yakin bahwa mereka sholat dengan mengarah ke Mekah, sebagaimana ditentukan.

Another important knowledge used in religious-related Astronomy is the determination of latitude and longitude. The stars used as a guide, such as the polar star - or the constellation of Tilted Shack - Gubuk Penceng. Some tables have been prepared that contains the latitude and longitude data of important cities in the Islamic world. Using these data, the Muslims can be sure that they are praying to point to Mecca, as specified direction determined.

Selain digunakan untuk keagamaan, pengetahuan Astronomi juga digunakan untuk navigasi. Astrolabe, alat yang menghitung posisi bintang-bintang tertentu dalam rangka untuk menentukan arah, diciptakan oleh orang-orang Yunani dan diadopsi dan disempurnakan oleh orang-orang Arab.

Besides being used for religious, the knowledge of astronomy is also used for navigation. Astrolabe, a tool that calculates the position of certain stars in order to determine the direction, created by the Greeks and adopted and perfected by the Arabs.

Sextant dikembangkan oleh orang Arab menjadi versi yang lebih canggih dari astrolabe. Teknologi ini akhirnya menjadi landasan navigasi bagi eksplorasi orang Eropa ke berbagai penjuru dunia.

Sextant was developed by the Arabs into a more sophisticated version of the astrolabe. This technology eventually became the basis of the navigation for Europeans explorations to various parts of the world.

Para Astronom Besar Islam – The Greatest Islamic Astronomers

Pencarian dan penemuan dalam Ilmu Pengetahuan dianggap sebagai salah satu penjelajahan yang paling penting di dunia Islam dan itu sangat didukung oleh kaum bangsawan. Kebanyakan ilmuwan Muslim bekerja di pengadilan para pimpinan wilayah, dan memperoleh imbalan finansial untuk prestasi mereka. Pada tahun 830, Khalifah al-Ma'muun, mendirikan Bayt-al-Hikman - 'Rumah Kebijaksanaan', sebagai pusat tempat berkumpul para ahli untuk menerjemahkan teks-teks dari bahasa Yunani dan Persia ke dalam bahasa Arab. Teks-teks ini membentuk dasar pengetahuan ilmiah Islam.

Search and discovery in science is considered as one of the most important discovery in the Islamic world and was strongly supported by the nobility. Being working in the court of the regional leaders, most of the Muslim scientists financially rewarded for their achievements. In the year 830, Caliph al-Ma'muun, founded the Bayt-al-Hikman - 'House of Wisdom', as the central gathering place for scholars to translate texts from Greek and Persian into Arabic. These texts form the basis of scientific knowledge of Islam.

Salah satu astronom Islam terbesar adalah al-Khwarizmi (Abu Ja'far Muhammad bin Musa Al-Khawarizmi), yang hidup di abad ke-9 dan merupakan penemu aljabar. Dia mengembangkan perangkat matematika ini dalam bentuk kata dan kalimat, bukan ekspresi matematika, namun berdasarkan sistem pada angka-angka yang sekarang kita sebut angka-angka Arab. Karyanya diterjemahkan ke dalam bahasa Latin ratusan tahun kemudian, dan menjadi pengantar bagi sistem numerik di Eropa termasuk konsep angka nol.

One of the largest Islamic astronomer is al-Khwarizmi (Abu Ja'far Muhammad ibn Musa al-Khwarizmi), who lived in the 9th century and is the inventor of algebra. He developed a mathematical tool in the form of words and sentences, not as a mathematical expression, but based on the system of numbers we now call Arabic numerals. His work was translated into Latin, hundreds of years later, and introducing a numerical system in Europe, including the concept of zero.

Al-Khawarizmi melakukan perhitungan rinci posisi Matahari, Bulan, dan planet-planet, dan melakukan sejumlah perhitungan gerhana. Dia membangun sebuah tabel yang berisi daftar garis lintang dan garis bujur dari 2.402 kota dan tempat-tempat penting lain di dunia. Tabel ini menjadi dasar bagi penyusunan awal penggambaran peta dunia.

Al-Khawarizmi did a detailed calculation of the position of the Sun, Moon, and planets, and do some eclipse calculations. He built a table that lists the latitude and longitude of the 2,402 city and important places in the world. This table is become the basis for the preparation of early map of the world.

Astronom Islam lain yang berpengaruh bagi perkembangan Ilmu Pengetahuan Barat adalah al-Farghani (Abu'l-Abbas Ahmad bin Muhammad bin Kathir al-Farghani). Pada akhir abad 9, dia secara intensif mencatat pergerakan benda-benda angkasa. Seperti kebanyakan astronom Islam, ia menggunakan model alam semesta yang berkembang di Dunia Islam yang oleh dunia Barat dikenal sebagai model alam semesta Ptolemeus.

Another Islamic Astronomer influential to the development of Western science is al-Farghani (Abu'l-Abbas Ahmad ibn Muhammad ibn Kathir al-Farghani). In the late 9th century, he intensively noted the movement of celestial bodies. Like most Islamic astronomers, he uses the model of the universe that developed in the Muslim world that the Western world known as the Ptolemaic model of the universe.

Al-Farghani memiliki andil besar dalam pengembangan konsep alam semesta dan penyebaran konsep alam semesta tersebut tidak hanya di dunia Islam tetapi juga di seluruh Eropa. Pada abad ke-12, karya-karyanya diterjemahkan ke dalam bahasa Latin, dan dapat dikatakan bahwa Dante mendapatkan pengetahuan Astronominya dari buku-buku al-Farghani.

Al-Farghani has a big hand in developing the concept of the universe and spread this concept of the universe not only in the Islamic world but also across Europe. In the 12th century, his works translated into Latin, and can be said that Dante got his astronomical knowledge from the books of al-Farghani.

Pada akhir abad ke-10, sebuah observatorium yang sangat besar dibangun di dekat Teheran, Iran, oleh astronom al-Khujandi. Ia membangun sekstan besar di dalam observatorium, dan merupakan astronom pertama yang mampu melakukan pengukuran dengan ketepatan hingga detik busur. Ia mengamati serangkaian transit meridian Matahari. Pengamatannya tersebut menghasilkan perhitungan kemiringan sumbu Bumi relatif terhadap Matahari yang dikenal sebagai kemiringan Ekliptika. Seperti yang kita ketahui hari ini bahwa kemiringan bumi adalah sekitar 23^o34^', dan hasil pengukuran al-Khujandi adalah 23^o32^'19^". Dengan menggunakan informasi ini, ia juga menyusun sebuah daftar garis lintang dan garis bujur kota-kota besar di dunia.

In the late of 10th century, a huge observatory was built near Tehran, Iran, by the astronomer al-Khujandi. He built a large sextant in the observatory, and is the first astronomer to be able of measuring with accuracy up to arc-seconds. He observed a series of meridian transits of the Sun. These observations yield calculation of Earth tilt axis relatively to the Sun, known as the slope of the Ecliptic. As we know today that the slope of the earth is approximately 23^o34^', and al-Khujandi measurement results are -23^o32^'19^". By using this information, he also compiled a list of latitude and longitude of cities in the world.

Omar Khayyam (Ghiyath al-Din Abu'l-Fath Umar bin Ibrahim al-Nisaburi al-Khayyami) adalah seorang ilmuwan besar Persia. Seorang filsuf dan penyair yang hidup pada tahun 1048 hingga 1131. Dia menyusun banyak tabel astronomis dan melakukan reformasi sistem kalender yang lebih akurat daripada sistem Kalender Julian dan mendekati ketepatan Kalender Gregorian. Salah satu perhitungannya yang sangat menakjubkan adalah perhitungan jumlah hari dalam satu tahun adalah 365,24219858156 hari. Perhitungan tersebut memiliki ketepatan hingga angka decimal ke 6!

Omar Khayyam (Ghiyath al-Din Abu'l-Fath Umar ibn Ibrahim al-Nisaburi al-Khayyami) was a great Persian scientist, a philosopher and poet who lived during the years 1048 to 1131. He set many astronomical tables and to reform the calendar system more accurate than the Julian calendar system and approached the accuracy of the Gregorian calendar. One of the most astonishing calculations is the calculation of the number of days in one year is 365.24219858156 days. The calculation has accuracy up to 6 decimal digits!

Sains Barat memiliki utang yang sangat besar kepada Dunia Islam dan para ilmuwan Arab, yang memiliki kontribusi besar sejak dari nama-nama bintang atau rasi bintang yang masih digunakan hingga saat ini hingga Matematika dan berbagai pengetahuan dan peninggalan dibidang Astronomi yang digunakan sebagai modal bagi ilmuwan dan bangsa Eropa memasuki dunia Ilmu Pengetahuan Modern.

Western science has a very large debt to the Muslim world and Arab scientists, who have a large contribution from the names of stars or stellar constellations which is still used until today to Mathematics and the heritage of knowledge in the field of Astronomy that is used as capital for the scientists and European to entered the world of Modern Science.

Mengapa Tingkat Bunga Pembiayaan Perbankan Belum Turun? (Why Banking Financing Interest Rates Not Down yet?)

2009-10-08T09:59:00.005+07:00

Sebagian dari kita mungkin pernah melihat iklan suatu Bank yang menawarkan tingkat bunga simpanan hingga diatas 10% p.a. bahkan ada yang menawarkan hingga 13% p.a. Penawaran tersebut terkadang masih ditambah dengan bonus tambahan dalam berbagai bentuk. Mengapa terjadi hal demikian?
Some of us may have seen ads that offer a bank deposit interest rate of 10% pa, some even offer up to 13% p.a. That offer is sometimes still added with additional bonuses in various forms. Why is there such thing?

Sistem pengelolaan dana Bank yang digunakan untuk menghitung biaya dana atau Cost of Fund pada umumnya menggunakan salah satu dari 2 metoda. Metoda pertama yaitu dengan melakukan pengelolaan dana terpusat dalam 1 kumpulan dana atau disebut sebagai Pooling Fund atau Pool of Fund dan metoda lainnya adalah dengan menggunakan system pengelolaan dana dengan mengalokasikan satu sumber dana untuk satu jenis pemanfaatan dana atau disebut sebagai Asset Allocation.
Bank fund management system that is used to calculate the cost of funds or cost of the Fund in general is used one of 2 methods. The first method is to perform centralized management of funds in the one collection of funds or called the Pooling Fund or the Pool of Fund and the other method is to use cash management system with a single source of funds allocated for one type of utilization of funds or referred to as the Asset Allocation.

Pada system Pool of Fund, seluruh dana “dikumpulkan” dalam satu “keranjang” dan dihitung biaya untuk mendapatkannya. Terdapat beberapa metoda yang dapat digunakan untuk menghitungnya. Perhitungan biaya atas simpanan Bank harus dengan memperhitungkan berapa biaya yang harus ditanggung atas cadangan atau reserve yang dilakukan oleh Bank. Kebutuhan cadangan atau disebut Reserve Requirement ini berupa Legal Reserve yaitu cadangan yang wajib dibentuk sesuai ketentuan yang ada dan Secondary Reserve yaitu cadangan yang perlu dibentuk disesuaikan dengan kebutuhan operasional Bank.
In the Pool of the Fund system, all funds "collected" in one "basket" and calculated the cost to get it. There are several methods that can be used to calculate it. The calculation of the cost of deposit should take into account how much it costs to be borne on a backup or reserve made by the Bank. The need for this reserve is called a Reserve Requirement consist of Legal Reserve is compulsory reserve established in accordance with the existing regulation and the Secondary Reserve reserves should be formed according to the operational needs of the Bank.

Jika Bank memperkirakan bahwa total Reserve Requirement sebesar 8% dari seluruh dana masyarakat (atau disebut sebagai Dana Pihak Ketiga) maka Effective Cost of Fund harus memperhitungkan hal tersebut.
If the Bank estimates that the total Reserve Requirement for all of deposits (or known as the Third Party Funds) is 8% then the Effective Cost of the Fund must take into account this things.

Secara garis besar perhitungan Cost of Fund diberikan sebagai berikut :
The calculation of Cost of Fund is given as follows:

Rata-rata tertimbang tingkat bunga Dana Masyarakat : 6% p.a
Biaya Promosi : 1% p.a
Reserve Requirement : 8%

Cost of Deposits : 6% + 1% = 7%
Reserve Requirement : 8%
Effective Cost of Deposits : 7% : (100%-8%) = 7,6%
Premi Asuransi Penjaminan : 0,5%
Cadangan Kredit (minimum) : 1%
Biaya Tenaga Kerja : 3%
Keuntungan Yang Diharapkan : 2%
Cost of Loan-able Fund : 14,1%

The weighted average interest rate for Third Party Fund : 6% pa
Promotion costs : 1% p.a
Reserve Requirement : 8%

Cost of Deposits : 6% + 1% = 7%
Reserve Requirement : 8%
Effective Cost of Deposits : 7%: (100% -8%) = 7.6%
Guarantee Insurance Premium : 0.5%
Loan reserve (minimum) : 1%
Labor costs : 3%
Profit Expected : 2%
Cost of Loan-able Fund : 14.1%

Dari perhitungan diatas terlihat bahwa terdapat beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat bunga pinjaman Bank. Tingkat biaya promosi untuk mendapatkan dana masyarakat bisa menjadi lebih tinggi jika kondisi likuiditas perbankan secara nasional ketat atau tidak merata. Pada kondisi likuiditas ketat maka Bank secara umum berlomba untuk menarik dana masyarakat dengan berbagai insentif. Hal ini menimbulkan tambahan biaya. Pada kondisi likuiditas perbankan yang tidak merata, maka pada sebagian Bank yang mengalami kesulitan likuiditas akan berusaha menarik dana masyarakat dengan tambahan insentif yang berakibat pada peningkatan biaya dana.
From the above calculation shows that there are several factors that affect the interest rate of the bank loans. The level of promotional costs to obtain public funds could be higher if the liquidity condition of the national banking system is tight or uneven. In the tight liquidity conditions in Banks in general are competing to attract public funds with various incentives. This has led to additional costs. In the non uniform banking liquidity conditions, some banks those experiencing liquidity problems will try to attract additional public funds with incentives that result in cost of funds increased.

Biaya asuransi penjaminan diperhitungkan sebagai beban seluruh dana Bank karena, pada sebagian besar Bank, walaupun secara nominal hanya sebagian kecil dana masyarakat bank tersebut yang dijamin, tetapi beban premi dikenakan terhadap seluruh dana masyarakat.
Guarantee insurance costs is calculated as a burden for entire bank funds because, in most of the bank, although nominally only a small portion of bank’s public fund that is guaranteed, but the burden of premiums cots imposed on all public funds.

Adanya kredit macet dapat berpengaruh terhadap tingkat bunga pinjaman, tetapi pada umumnya Bank hanya mengenakan biaya cadangan kredit tersebut sebesar minimum. Sedangkan biaya tenaga kerja karena merupakan biaya tetap, akan sangat dipengaruhi oleh ukuran Bank.
The existence of problem loan can affect on interest rates, but in general Bank only charged the minimum loan reserve. Meanwhile, because of the labor costs is the fixed costs, will be strongly influenced by the size of the Bank.

Ketimpangan likuiditas yang terjadi di perbankan saat ini membuat Bank menengah dan Bank kecil berusaha memperkuat posisi likuiditas dari dana masyarakat. Fasilitas Pasar Uang Antar Bank (PUAB) tidak bisa diharapkan untuk mengatasi kebutuhan likuiditas jangka pendek karena tingkat kepercayaan antar Bank masih berada pada posisi minimum. Bank besar tidak berani mengambil risiko dengan memberikan pinjaman antar bank. Sehingga Bank menengah dan Bank kecil terpaksa berusaha menghimpun dana masyarakat yang berbunga lebih tinggi untuk mengatasi kebutuhan likuiditas baik jangka pendek maupun menengah.
Medium and small sized Banks have to strengthen the liquidity position of their third party fund because of the liquidity imbalance that occurs in the currently banking sector. Inter-bank Money Market facility (PUAB) can not be expected to overcome the short-term liquidity needs as the level of trust between the Banks is at the minimum level. Big banks did not dare to take risks by lending at inter-bank placement. So that the medium and small Banks were forced to try to raise third party fund at higher interest to address the liquidity needs of both the short and medium term.

Sehingga selain faktor regulasi, misalnya kewajiban reserve requirement dan premi penjaminan simpanan, terdapat faktor lain yang jauh lebih sulit untuk dikontrol.
So in addition to regulatory factors, such as reserve requirements and obligations of the guarantee premium for deposit, there are other factors much more difficult to control.

Pernyataan otoritas moneter mengenai konsolidasi perbankan seringkali diinterpretasikan secara mudah sebagai pengurangan jumlah Bank, interpretasi yang tidak sepenuhnya salah tetapi juga belum tentu sepenuhnya benar, juga memicu peralihan dana pihak ketiga dari suatu Bank ke Bank lain yang dianggap lebih aman. Krisis global gelombang ke-2 memicu peralihan dana tersebut.
Monetary authorities Statement about the banking consolidation is often interpreted as easily as a reduction in the number of Banks, an interpretation that is not completely wrong but not necessarily entirely true, also trigger the transition of funds from a bank to another bank which is considered more secure. The Waves of the 2nd global crisis triggers the this movement of funds.

Jika dilihat komposisi perubahan posisi dana masyarakat perbankan terlihat bahwa sejak Juni 2008 hingga Maret 2009 terjadi peningkatan dana masyarakat di perbankan sebesar Rp. 176 Triliun. Sebesar Rp. 112 Triliun (atau 63%) didominasi oleh 4 bank pemerintah dan BCA. Peningkatan dana masyarakat pada bank swasta nasional Rp. 86 Triliun (atau 24%) terbagi kepada 77 Bank Umum Swasta Nasional (tidak termasuk BCA). Terlihat bahwa dana masyarakat meningkat secara tidak merata. Jika dilihat lebih dalam lagi, akan terlihat bahwa pada beberapa Bank justru terjadi penurunan posisi penghimpunan dana masyarakat.
If you see a position change in the composition of the banking third party funds are seen that from June 2008 until March 2009 an increase in third party funds in banks amounted to Rp. 176 Trillion. Rp. 112 Trillion (or 63%) dominated by the 4 government banks and BCA. Third party funds increasing on national private banks Rp. 86 Trillion (or 24%) distributed to the 77 National Private Banks (not including the BCA). It could be seen that increasing in Bank’s third party fund is not evenly distributed. When viewed deeper it will be seen that in some Banks actually accumulating position of their third party funds is decline.

Selain itu jika kita lihat tingkat bunga simpanan dan pinjaman yang ada sekarang ini dibandingkan tingkat bunga simpanan dan pinjaman yang berlaku sebelum krisi moneter tahun 1997/1998 tidak jauh berbeda bahkan mungkin lebih kecil. Tingkat bunga Bank ini juga tidak jauh berbeda dibandingkan saat penulis pertama kali memasuki industri perbankan di tahun 1988.
In addition, if we look at the current deposit rate and loans rate than savings and loans before the monetary crisis in 1997/1998 was not much different perhaps even smaller. Bank interest rate is also not much different than when the author first entered the banking industry in the year 1988.

Melihat keadaan tersebut maka keinginan BI dan pelaku bisnis untuk meminta penurunan suku bunga Bank tidak akan terlalu efektif selama BI “tidak melihat” akar masalahnya. BI mengumpulkan para banker dari bank-bank besar dan dihimbau menurunkan suku bunganya. Bagi bank-bank besar hal tersebut mungkin bukan masalah besar melihat tingkat penghimpunan dana yang mereka dapat baik karena usaha mereka maupun karena “dorongan” otoritas moneter melalui pembentukan opini bahwa bank besar aman.
Seeing the situation and the BI and businesspersons expectation for the Bank to decline the interest rate may not be very effective as long as BI "not see" the root of the problem. To encourage lower interest rate, BI invited bankers from major banks asked to decline the interest rate. For large banks that may not be a big problem to see the level of their funding because of for their effort or because of the "push" of the monetary authorities through the establishing the opinion that the big bank is safe.

Tanpa penjaminan sekalipun Bank besar tidak mungkin ditutup karena alasan sistemik, ini sudah terjadi ketika krisis moneter yang lalu. Sementara Bank menengah dan kecil tidak mungkin bersaing dengan Bank besar selain melalui instrument bunga. Instrumen non bunga tidak terlalu berperan. Situasi yang sangat sulit akan dihadapi Bank menengah dan kecil. Mereka harus meyakinkan bahwa Bank nya cukup aman karena dana masyarakatnya tidak dijamin oleh LPS sementara BI dan otoritas moneter hanya berteriak untuk menurunkan suku bunga yang sama sekali tidak membantu.
Although without deposit guarantee a big bank may not be closed due systemic reasons, this has happened at the past monetary crisis. While the medium and small bank could not compete with large bank other than through the interest instrument. Non-interest instruments are not too effective. A very difficult situation faced by the medium and small Banks. They had to convince depositors that the Bank is safe enough for their funds although not guaranteed by LPS while BI and monetary authorities only cried for lower interest rates which did not help.

Jika Bank menengah dan kecil dipaksa menurunkan tingkat bunga simpanannya, yang terjadi adalah melemahnya daya saing yang secara perlahan akan mematikan Bank tersebut. Apakah ini yang diinginkan otoritas moneter dengan konsep API nya, yang berarti jumlah Bank lebih sedikit tetapi lebih kuat? Konsep ini berarti berlaku hukum rimba, yang kuat akan bertahan. Jika ini yang menjadi tujuan, maka para deposan jangan menyimpan di Bank menengah dan kecil simpanlah hanya di Bank pemerintah dan Bank besar yang pasti tidak akan di tutup karena Bank menengah dan kecil akan ditutup secara perlahan.
If the medium and small banks are force to lowered deposit interest rates, the weakening of competitiveness will gradually turn off the banks. Is this monetary authority wants with his concept of the API, which means the number of bank less but more powerful? This concept means the application of law of the jungle, the strong will survive. If this is the goal, then it is not for depositors to deposit in the medium and small Banks, deposit the fund only at government Bank and big Bank that would not be closed, because the medium and small Banks will closed gradually.

Maka sikap dan kebiasaan BI selama ini yang hanya melihat Bank seperti MS Word dan MS Excell tidak akan menghasilkan sesuatu yang positive. Hasil baik yang selama ini terjadi sebagian besar adalah usaha Bank. Jika BI ingin dihitung jasanya dalam pengembangan Bank sebagai badan usaha mungkin sangat sedikit untuk dapat dianggap bermanfaat secara baik. Itulah sebabnya tidak ada satupun Bank yang dikelola dan dimiliki BI yang bisa berjalan dengan baik dan tidak ada satupun yang masih beroperasi.
So BI attitudes and habits for which see the Bank as MS Word and MS Excel will not produce anything positive. Good results for most of this is an attempt of Bank. If the BI wants to count his services in the development of the Bank as a business entity may be very little to be considered useful as well. That's why none of the Bank which is managed and owned by BI that can run well and no one is still operating.

Kerajaan Raminem - Suparto Broto - The Javanese in the Japanese Colonialism.

2009-10-06T15:40:00.004+07:00

The Kingdom of Raminem is the second book of The Barracks Girl Trilogy (Trilogi Gadis Tangsi) by Suparto Brata. The first novel titled The Barracks Girl (Gadis Tangsi) and the third (not yet published) titled Mahligai di Ufuk Timur. This trilogy tells of successful Java grassroots figures realize her dream in the middle of the limitations and the crush of poverty in the Japanese colonial period. This book is also a social portrait of a family that seeks a lowly Java elevated and self-esteem by working hard.

Small Teyi is a bad girl, no manners, and wild but intelligent. Teyi is the daughter of the Dutch Colonial Army War soldier in East Indies (KNIL) Head Sergeant Wongsodirdjo and Raminem and had migrated from Java. They live in garrison barrack in Lorong Belawan in Pangkalan Brandan, North Sumatra. Teyi gradually becomes a virtuous child when she was adopted by the Princess Parasi and the Captain Sarjubehi. The Princess is a blue blood descendant of the kingdom of Surakarta Sultanate.

The Kingdom of Raminem is told about the misery Raminem family and other inhabitants of the barracks when they had to evacuate because of the Dutch East Indies surrender to the Japanese army. The Japanese colonial soldier behavior is harder and had been felt by them from the beginning. Life in the Dutch army barracks are all guaranteed, although limited, led to women's barracks are not ready to face the situation.

We see that in the lack of education and knowledge, including knowledge of religion, in fact they knew the Lord had to be beg in trouble. But they do not know how to have religion. They are aware of any religion, but do not know how to embrace a religion or having a religion. (maybe we have to ask the clergy's view of this, writer). So that the perspective on culture and customs (perhaps called Kejawen) considered the equivalent of religion, or the way they are deemed to have been religious.

In this book the author looks freely exert the teachings of Java philosophy through the mouth of Teyi. For example, when Raminen is in despair. Javanese people have a very powerful handle on life to maintain the health of their soul those are to be patient, sincere, and accept the situation as it is (“nrima”). So whatever happens they can live in peace and courage. Many philosophy and way of life of the Javanese are reviewed here. We also can be seen the picture of the writer that the Javanese wayang not only as art performance, but also beyond, it is a way of life, philosophy of life, ideals and guidance behavior.

In this book, the author did not try to highlight as the perfect Teyi. Black and white is the main character of Teyi. Teyi could be wise and compassionate and a ruthless in other time. Both were present in Teyi. For example, because Dumilah is cheating and scheming, Teyi decided to leave Dumilah in refugee camp while Dumilah pregnant of Captain Sarjubehi’s baby. But also described Teyi’s different decision when she was accepted a stepfather Manguntaruh (new husband of Raminem) or receiving Manguntaruh’s son, Dasiyun, and protect Siti, the wife of Dasiyun. Meanwhile Teyi has known that the killer of her father is Manguntaruh and had attempted to rape by Dasiyun while in barracks and they have a highly disgraceful nature and habits.

This novel ends with the success of Teyi of establishing The Kingdom of Raminem. Teyi’s hard work after she rejected by the late father's greedy family, to fruition. Her efforts was began by traveling buying and selling rice by bicycle, to build a shack to house dressed up with plenty of rooms, to purchase all of the most fertile fields in Bagelen, Central Java.

Author who has 74 years of age (born February 27, 1932) still has not lost his energy to write fluent, lively, funny and slightly naughty. The author also did not lose his sense of sultry by inserting his views about sexuality without being obscene and pornographic. Among others is the view that the passion was not the sin, the passions is nature, while this opinion was expressed when describing Teyi’s relationship with her lover GBRM Kus Bandarkum.

The author seems deliberately to let the story ends and was left hanging. So, that the reader is directed to read the sequel story. It is very unfortunate, given the rather difficult to get the next novel. In other words, the story does not end. The story is only a paused.

Twilight - The Saga - Stephanie Meyer - Between Vampire - Human - Werewolf (Shape Shifted)

2009-09-07T11:43:00.008+07:00

Twilight series is the story begins tetra logy of Twilight, New Moon, Eclipse, and end by Breaking Dawn.

Book 1: Twilight

Bella Swan had just moved from Phoenix, Arizona to Forks, Washington to live with her father after her mother, Renée, married and living with her new husband, Phil, a baseball player. Forks is a region that has high rainfall with little sunlight. In contrast to the Forks, Phoenix is the region with the level of high solar intensity with low rainfall. These conditions create a very dim Bella Forks, moreover, she considers Forks far more backward than Phoenix.

Bella Swan is described as a careless girl and always invites danger. He also described a sense of low self-confidence and always felt unworthy of the Edward. Bella has brown eyes and brown hair. She is immune to the supernatural powers associated with the mind, such as Edward's ability to read minds.

After she was transformed into a vampire in the fourth book, Bella got a power that can make a protection for herself and those around her become immune to various other supernatural powers.

Bella finally drawn to a handsome mysterious boy named Edward Cullen, a vampire who was determined not to drink human blood. To satisfy his thirst Edward drank animal blood, preferably beast blood, like bears and mountain lions.

In Breaking Dawn, he began to think of Jacob as a brother and also a friend. Like other vampires, Edward also has a special ability: he can read the minds of others. Bella is immune to its power, but after changing into a vampire, Bella could undermine the defense.

They fell in love with each other, and fought against a group of vampires from other clans who are hungry of Bella's blood. Bella had fled to Phoenix, Arizona where she was framed by James, vicious vampire who wants to kill her. Edward saves her, and they return to Forks.

This book illustrates how powerful chemistry between Bella Swan in love with Edward Cullen. In fact their loves are suffering for Edward, because Bella's blood is very fragrant and seductive for Edward. Edward must struggle so hard not to be tempted to drink Bella's blood, while Bella is always trying to be very close to Edward. This picture is like the predator fell in love with his prey.

Book 2: New Moon

Edward and his family leave Forks because Edward believes that they can put Bella in dangerous situation. Bella falls into a deep depression. In depression Bella doing various acts that are dangerous to his soul. Until finally he found a werewolf named Jacob Black or Jake.

Jacob and other werewolf from his tribe try to protect her from Victoria. Victoria grudge to Edward that had killed James, the couple vampire. Revenge is acted with trying to kill Bella who is a couple of Edward.

Jacob Black is a supporting character in the first novel, Jacob is introduced as a member of the Quileute tribe. He came back in New Moon with a greater role, a werewolf and Bella's best friend who was depressed because Edward left.

Bella this merely good friends, although he fell in love with Bella. Because of a misunderstanding, Edward things Bella has killed herself by jumps from a high cliff. Edward decides to commit suicide by challenging senior vampire family in Volterra, Italy, but then stopped by Bella and Alice who followed Edward to Volterra, Italy.

They met with the Volturi clan and they immediately released to go as long as Bella should become a vampire someday. Bella and Edward meet again, and the Cullen family returned to Forks.

Book 3: Eclipse

The vampire Victoria has an army of "a new vampire" to fight and kill the Cullen Family and Bella. In the meantime, Bella must choose between her relationship with Edward and her friendship with Jacob or Jake.

Bella realize that in addition to love Edward, he also loved Jake. But his love of Jake's not for her love for Edward. Bella finally decided to choose Edward. Family Gang vampire Edward and werewolf Jacob work together and successfully eradicate the Victoria and her army. Their victory is also a sadness for Jake, because in the end Bella decided to become a vampire as he always said to Edward.

Book 4: Breaking the Dawn

Bella and Edward get married, but their honeymoon was interrupted after Bella knew that she was pregnant. The pregnancy went very quickly and make Bella became weak. She almost died giving birth to her daughter a half-human and half vampire, Renesmee, but Edward injects Bella with his venom to stay alive and turned into a vampire.

A vampire from another clan to see Renesmee and expected it as "immortal child", children who have been bitten by a vampire, which means against the vampires rules, then he informs the Volturi clan.

Cullen family vampires gather that can be a witness that Reneesme not "immortal child". Cullen family and the witnesses managed to convince the Volturi that Renesmee is not a threat, and they live peacefully.

Jake than found that he loves Reneesme. Their love was hurt Bella.

In this book, Jacob's role is greater than the previous books. Jacob told how to view portions much larger than ever before.

Reading the Twilight series of four books this looks typical of the author. Starting story writer always slow at the beginning of the story. Increased slow story is very boring, so often the reader tempting not to continue reading. But amid the book until the end, intensity began to rise slowly. This picture is holding the reader to not leave the story.

The same thing can be found in another book called The Host and translated as “Sang Pengelana” - The Traveler. The story went very slowly at the beginning then began to rise with weak intensity since the middle of the story.

The similarity of characters can also be found in this Twilight series with The Host, nature hard, stubborn, rebels and dissidents into the nature of the central figures of the two stories. So is the nature of the character of Edward and The Wanderer has a resemblance and be prepared by the author to balance the nature of the main character.

These are silly stories. Simple and nice story for you who want to read a romantic story but with some strange in deep. Like AXN Beyond maybe.

Ilmu Ibunda – Eka Budianta – Stairway to Heaven

2009-09-04T11:45:00.005+07:00

In this book you will found how highly respected author and loving mother. When you go deeper and deeper, read inside the book, the feeling will become stronger and stronger

In my religion, honor and appreciate a mother is very important. When the Prophet Muhammad SAW was asked by a friend of respect and appreciation, he replied: Your mother, Your Mother, You Mother. He repeated it three times. Only then will Your Father

Your mother's forgiveness is a prerequisite for reaching heaven. And love your mother will be a ticket to heaven. This is the reason I chose the title “Stairway to Heaven” as the title of this book review

It is very funny, when the author begins his story about finding him under the sapodilla tree (Manilkara achras zapota). In the Javanese culture, teasing the children by saying that he found and retrieved from the trash is common. Of course this is only joking. And when the child had started sulking and crying for the children recognize as they all will laugh. Then they hugged him with all their love. Maybe this moment is one of the most memorable for the author and then he felt his mother's love is infinite. So he repeated many times on various occasions.

You'll find a way to tell a funny writer. He must be someone who loved humor. He looked at life with full color as he saw a tree growing tall, big and strong, like he's looking more and more beautiful flowers bloom and fragrant, as he looked at the peaceful green leaves.

His mother educates and teaches not only how to survive in life, but also taught him manners. How to live with honor, as a “Priyayi” - gentleman, she said. Her understanding about the “priyayi” - gentleman not only about the Javanese royal family, but also about a man who lived with honor and dignity.

Another lesson that has been given is about religion. Nearly all (or even all) of her children attend a Christian school and her daughter was a nun. The author must be a very pious, too.

Perhaps almost all parents would do the same thing. This can be seen that how parents, especially mothers, love their children. That is why Prophet Muhammad SAW said about the mother of three times of the father

This book is a brief biography of the author's mother, but also a brief author’s biography. That is all I need to be a note. When I first read the title and the opening of this book, I thought that I would find about how a mother's love, educating, guiding, directing and giving lessons on life to her children. Of course it can be found in this book. But you can also find stories about the life of the author almost in equal portions. Perhaps because the book he wrote and he was free to write what he wanted. Just think of it as a bonus story.

Those Moments

2009-08-26T13:30:00.008+07:00

A few days before April 17, 2009, we were called by Bank Indonesia. At the meeting, one issue discussed was the need for bank capital. We were asked by Bank Indonesia to increase the capital of the Bank. This is our next report to shareholders.

Bank Indonesia officials also warned us that in addition to capital needs, we were required also to focus on bank liquidity. As long as we meet the needs of pre-fund and does not violate pre-fund so they can help to maintain the Bank. This is not an easy thing. Especially since the Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia always talking about the capital needs of the Bank and the Indonesian Banking Architecture plan, which is often translated by the public as a plan of reducing the number of the Bank. We always hit very hard every time he spoke to the press.

Thursday, April 14, 2009. My staff tells the good news. Existing investors, the controlling shareholders and new investors have agreed on a new acquisition scheme. New investors will inject some funds this week for the capital and continued in the following weeks. They were very happy, congratulated each other, shook hands and laughed. Bank Indonesia staff and senior officials of LPS was still in the bank and they would know about it. At that time we were very happy.

Potato Head, at 10pm. We waited for Mr. Harry, who will join the meeting that night. He came to the meeting about 10 hours of the night, after meeting with two directors and the Deputy Governor of BI. He said to us (three directors) that the Governor of Bank Indonesia will meet with other investors (the third investor) on Tuesday 21 April 2009 date of the morning. This investor have committed to funding for capital injection at minimum Rp. 70 Billion and will be added according to the needs of capital and liquidity needs.

We are very confident that the Bank will be saved. At least we have three investors. The first investors are investors who have been there. The second investor will join the first and the investors will inject some funds for capital. The third investor is very popular and has a funding capacity far greater than the needs of the Bank and will meet with Governor of Bank Indonesia and will soon inject capital funds required for the Bank.

Wednesday. 15 April 2009. Funds are expected to receive that day missed. Until the end of office hours, the promised funds have not received. We are very busy that day. We need to minimize misunderstanding between investors and between investors with a controlling shareholder and resolve various technical obstacles.

Thursday, April 16, 2009. We are very busy that day. We must seek the promised funds to our investors receive on that day. In the afternoon, Treasury reported to the president director of that funding has been received at the Bank effective. President Director immediately reported it to Bank Indonesia officials and senior officials of LPS in the Bank about these progresses. LPS and BI are in a team watching us, so they must know about these progresses.

Bank Indonesia team leader asked the president director to report this to the controlling shareholders and the shareholders are asked to report it directly to senior officials at the BI. A few days after the bank closed, Mr. Harry said that he had tried to call but BI officials phone are not appointed. Finally he sent an SMS to a BI director’s mobile phone about the progress. The message is sent and received on Thursday, at about the same time with the message sent. He showed the message and answer the next day, that is Friday, after the bank closed, which essentially said that he apologized but the decision has been taken.

We've felt rescued and were safe at that time. The first investors already in the bank and had to deposit some funds. The second investor has to deposit the funds as evidence of seriousness. The third investor already has an agreement to meet with the BI and will deposit funds on Tuesday.

I, Mr. Harry and chief executive held talks in the office until 11 o'clock at night. We are discussing various things that need to be prepared if the investor is to realize the deal.

Friday 17 April 2009. I left to the office of 7 am as usual. At 7:20 AM, my secretary called and told that there are some vehicles with many officers in it. Some of them came from the police. I have a bad feeling about it and I do not like this feeling. After that two branches called and told that their branches had the conditions. I advised them to calm down and not panic.

At 7:30 am, my secretary called again and told that our bank in liquidation. I was very surprised to hear this. This is very un-expected, especially after all the good progress that occurred a few days. All these progresses are well known to all by Bank Indonesia and LPS. We also have an appointment for a good development with the Governor of Bank Indonesia on Tuesday. This is a questionable decision to close the bank while the Bank can be saved without government assistance, without the use of funds LPS at all.

Some of my friends in the banking industry to contact me. They used to offer me join their management team and I have already rejected. They say that, if only I would accept their offer, then it would be better for me. I declined their offer, because I could not leave my friends who are struggling to save the bank, whatever their reasons. We are their hopes, and I want to become the foundation for good. I will not leave my friends who are difficult to save myself. Now, I dare say that I never leave my men. I support them until the last moments of our struggle.

I hope all the difficulties and suffering for several years was enough. We've struggled for several years and that was enough.

I have accepted this as a fact that will not be changed. Time passed. I have done my responsibility as good as I can. Maybe not perfect as a banker and the bank management, but we have fulfilled our duty to maintain pre-fund, to keep this bank still standing. We have brought investors. In the end we have a good progress. But ultimately the decision is different. That destiny God Almighty, that is best for us. I hope this problem is not prolonged. May Allah SWT protect us all.

The Road To The Emperor - A Story About A Mongolian Moslem Emperor

2009-04-28T16:09:00.005+07:00

The story tells about Mongolian empire after Genghis Khan Era the area is spread in Mongolia and around, including savannah, valley, mountain, river and all under the sky. The emperor is Tuqluq Timur Khan, who wants to unite his emporium under Mongolian flag peacefully, big, strong and without blood under his power. He made a brotherhood agreement with Syaikh Jamaluddin and finds a true way of life, more pure, honest, priceless and full of meaning. They promised that if they can’t meet each other, their sons Takudar and Rasyiduddin will fulfill their promises.

Takudar, Arghun and Buzun are sons of Tuqluq Timur Khan, emperor of Mongolia son of Genghis Khan. He and his wife - Ilkhata - were killed in his palace. Everything will not be the same anymore. Before she died, she asked her son Takudar to run out from Ulan Bator. She asked her maid Ying Chin – then known as Almamuchi or Uchatadara – from Tar Muleng clan to accompany her son.

Then Takudar is run from the palace to his father’s friend. Tuqluq Timur Khan used to made brotherhood promises with Syaikh Jamaluddin. Takudar went to Sayikh Jamaluddin’s place asking protection and to fulfil their father’s promises. He met with Syaikh son’s Rasyiduddin who use Salim to cover his real identity and for protecting their life.

Takudar went to Syakhrisyabz, a pesantren lead by Syaikh Jamaluddin’s son named Salim. At that place Takudar change his name to be Baruji to cover his real identity as a prince. In Syakhrisyabz, Baruji learn about loyalty and brotherhood. Then he changed his faith into a Moslem. He tries to build an army and strategy to take over his right of the crown. He asked Almamuchi guarded by Karadiza a Tabriz girl to find a secret book about Genghis Khan War strategy.

In the palace, Arghun – the younger brother of Takudar, taken over the empire and become the emperor supported by Albuqa Khan. Buzun still in the palace become the head of treasury. He is always looking for information to find his older brother Takudar.

Arghun become an ambitious emperor to defeat the world as Genghis Khan has done. He even wants to conquer Jerusalem. In every armed expansion, people will always be victims. Including Moslem people who have been unite as minority in Mongolia. For Moslem people, expansion could mean mass destruction, and then there is no other way than try to fight back. Especially, the first prince has been saved by the Moslem.

An emperor maid named Yan Chi asked the emperor Arghun to find an empress. Arghun wants Urghana – a daughter of Albuqa Khan – to be his empress. But, Urghana did not want to be Arghun’s wife because she has fall in love to Buzun. When Arghun wants to select an empress from the Mongolian most women, Urghana still refuse Arghun. She still refuse Arghun even her mother Ankhnyam ask her to receive Arghun. It makes Arghun angry and sends Ankhnyam and her three daughters to jail.

One of Tuqluq Timur Khan Wives named Han Siang has an ambitious to made her daughter to be Arghun’s wife. She wants Bayduna to be the empress. She ordered her son Uljaytu to be a soldier in Arghun’s army as a high rank officer.

Finally, Almamuchi can get a secret book in Tseterleg. Before she goes to Syakhrisyabz, she met with her mother Hoelun. She asked her mother to joint with her, but her mother refused. In Salim’s pesantren, she finds the place has been destroyed by Arghun’s army. Every one in the pesantren has been killed and the women raped before killed.

Almamuchi run from the pesantren with Karadiza before she killed by Arghun’s army. Karadiza is very angry to Almamuchi because she was late to come.

Meanwhile, Arghun’s army prepared to conquest Jerusalem were went out from Ulan Bator. This army become a threat for Moslem people. In the journey, Arghun defeat and killed lot of people including Moslem people.

In Turpan, Takudar meet with his brother Arghun. Takudar very worry about Genghis Khan History, because Genghis Khan has been defeated by a Moslem Sultan Jaladdin in Balwan. He is worry about his fortunate as Jaladdin to defeat Arghun.

This story is also tells about romance between them. Baruji loves Almamuchi and Almamuchi loves him too. But, she is only an ordinary girl and Baruji a prince. Karadiza loves Baruji and she has a royal blood. Salim loves Almamuchi. Buzun loves Urghana and Urghana loves Buzun too. But, Arghun as an emperor love Urghana. Then, the story filled with heroism and romance between them and become one good story.

With interesting description and detail, the author can bring Mongolian era after Genghis Khan full with Mongolian culture and life in Mongolia.