“My desire to remove 23-year career politician and Socialist Cynthia Chestnut from office far exceeds any desire that I might have to be elected. The entry of Republican candidate Susan Baird in the District 4 race subsequent to my qualifying will only serve to divide the patriotic and conservatives that are presently suffering in the most highly taxed and oppressive county in Florida.”

The Sun also reported that Bailey has run as a Republican three times previously. This is a factual error. According to the Supervisor of Elections web site, Bailey ran with No Party Affiliation against Rodney Long in 2000 and in 2006, against Chestnut. In 2008, he initially filed to run with No Party Affiliation again. Then Ward Scott, a Republican, got into his race. To keep it from being a three-way race, Bailey switched from NPA to Republican in order to force a primary to eliminate either him or Scott. Ward Scott then switched to run in District 5 against Rodney Long.

Meanwhile, the North Central Florida chapter of the Police Benevolent Association rescinded its endorsement of both Cynthia Chestnut and Lee Pinkoson over the County Commission’s intransigence over Sheriff Sadie Darnell’s budget.

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As for as my prognosticating went, I didn’t do badly. I said it might be a Pinkoson blowout, but instead it was just a solid win over Jack Donovan, 53.7%-46.3%. I think the spread would have been bigger with a better turnout. I correctly called a Griffin/Nesbit runoff in the District 1 School Board race, a Gunnar Paulson first round knock out in District 3, and I thought Carol Oyenarte might do the same, but she will be in a November runoff with Jancie Vinson.

In other local contests, Corrine Brown devoured her primary challenger for the 3rd District seat in Congress by an 80-20 margin. She will be facing Republican primary winner Mike Yost and Independent candidate Terry Martin-Back. Yost took down Dean Black and Chris Nwasike in a 46-35-19 finish yesterday. In the 6th Congressional District Republican primary, Cliff Stearns easily won over Don Browning, 71-29.

In State House 11 Republican Primary, Elizabeth Porter blew out the rest of the 4 person field with 73% of the vote. And in State House 22, Keith Perry prevailed over Remzey Samarrai and John Deakins 44-28-28. Only 16 votes separated Samarrai from Deakins, who finished last.

Stay tuned as I revamp the site for November elections, including ballot initiatives!

I have already been to the gym and to my polling place to vote. Then I walked my dog and met a neighbor who told me his mother is totally turned of to politics because of the negative ads. For the first time, she is not voting.

I truly despair of my country when I hear that a member of “The Greatest Generation” has thrown in the towel and has decided to let a tiny minority of her neighbors choose for her. This is exactly what the political pros hope for: that only ten of us will show up, so they will have to only buy six of us…

Do nasty attacks on someone's character work?

“I went to a mud-wrestling event, and a political campaign broke out!” That is a new take on an old joke, but this year it seems like going negative is the default setting for some campaigns. It’s been going on for years, but are people sick of it? And are they so sick of it that negative ads actually backfire? And when you are the victim of the negative attack, does it pay to fight back?

I am sure there is a science to this, or no one would go negative. For some, it’s measuring out the negativity carefully, trying to stick to calling out an incumbent on his or her record, for instance. If you attack all the time, the negativity becomes more about you than your opponent. Bill Clinton became more of a victim as attacks intensified against him during the Lewinsky scandal. Even though he eventually admitted lying to Congress, he was easier to forgive than the Republicans who focused on it. For others, it’s a matter of letting someone else do it. Swift Boat Veterans for Truth did this to great effect against John Kerry in 2004.

In this election cycle we are getting some of this in our local contests. In the Republican primary for State House District 22, some 527 in Bradenton is sending out mailers that accuse John Deakins and Keith Perry of being liberals. On the Star 99.5 FM’s “Talk of the Town,” host Jake Fuller suggested that this leaves Remzey Samarrai as the beneficiary of this attack. And I have spoken to one v0ter who has declared a change in his vote from Samarrai to Keith Perry because of it. So, this ad seems to have backfired if it was intended to drive conservative Republican voters to Samarrai.

The shame of this is that I have met all of these gentlemen, and I know two of them quite well. And I would classify NONE of them as a liberal! By law, Remzey Samarrai can have no coordination with a 527. So, is this a group of individuals who just sincerely believe that Perry and Deakins are secret liberals? If they are, they are a group of numbskulls that haven’t gotten their facts right. I feel bad for Remzey, because I know what it’s like to get public support from a group of numbskulls. When Dove World Outreach put up a sign attacking my opponent earlier this year, I got tarred with their horrible reputation, and it’s not unreasonable to think they cost me the election.

In another local Republican Primary, Congressman Cliff Stearns is facing Don Browning, darling of the local Tea Party. Someone forwarded an email to me that said Don Browning was not pro-life. This is a pretty serious charge in a Republican Primary, and it came from someone who didn’t like Browning’s answers on a questionnaire put out by the Florida Family Policy Council. I contacted the Browning campaign and they tell me that they have been getting smeared by fliers stuck under people’s windshields at Tea Party meetings. I haven’t seen these fliers, but I do believe that Don Browning is pro-life. And I think this is a cheap shot, regardless of who is taking it. This helps the Stearns campaign only if people find the charge to be credible. Unfortunately for Don Browning, he only has about a tenth of the money Stearns has to get his message out.

Last, but not least, is our District 3 School Board race. Jodi Wood has been complaining that Gunnar Paulson’s campaign has been stealing signs, arranging unfounded complaints to DCF about his family, and spreading lies about him. This will only fly if Wood is perceived as credible in all other ways. After all, if these things are really happening, who could keep silent about it? If they are not true, then there is something else going on that Wood is blaming on his biggest rival. So, voters must ask themselves, “Has Jodi Wood been a credible, sensible candidate up until he made the accusations?” If he has, he is more likely to be taken seriously. And if he is, this makes Gunnar Paulson look like one sinister character. Unfortunately, this matter takes the voters’ eyes off the ball: who will best represent the interests of parents, children and teachers?

I believe this will boil down to how quick on the trigger the voters are to believe the worst about a candidate. And this year, they are all getting a harder look. If you hurl the mud, your aim had better be true. Because you will also be judged on your marksmanship.

Over the years, however, I have been surprised at how good they have been at nailing some of these races. Maybe it’s just luck. Maybe the visitors here are a reasonable sample. Whatever the case, I’d like to look at these polls and the dynamics of the August 24th election to do a little crystal ball-gazing. My hunches do not constitute and endorsement. I may not even be happy about them. But they are food for thought, and may help a candidate or two get an idea of where they need to put more effort.

Donovan vs Pinkoson

This poll shows Pinkoson winning handily. It is a Democrat Primary. This poll likely skews toward white voters, so it may not indicate Pinkoson’s support by the African American Accountability Alliance (4As). This group endorsed Pinkoson this year. In 2008 it endorsed Mike Byerly, who defeated Rick Bryant in a respectably close race. Byerly was a sitting county commissioner who’d been elected county wide twice before. I believe the 4As made the difference. Pinkoson is also a 2 term commissioner and he has the 4As endorsement. Jack Donovan is a 2 term city commissioners who, frankly, is not very popular outside of his district. This could be a Pinkoson blowout.

School Board 1

The 4As did not endorse in this race because none of the candidates got a majority. Bonnie Burgess and Felecia Moss, the two African-Americans in this race, will probably do way better than the paltry numbers they are posting on the poll. This may keep poll leader Rick Nesbit from getting over the 50% mark even as he leads April Griffin. Ms. Griffin and her crew had better get out to the East side and knock on a lot of doors if she wants to win in the first round. So far, it looks like a Griffin/Nesbit runoff in November.

School Board 3

Gunnar Paulson got the 4A’s endorsement, and it looks like a first round knock out so far. Jodi Wood has been campaigning for over a year, and makes a good impression on voters at the forum, but he has no money left and Paulson is the Teachers’ Union pick. He has money and organization, and during a Democrat Primary, activist Democrats are very reliable voters. Paulson is their guy. Unless Jodi Wood can reach those African American voters by canvassing these last 9 days, he will probably fall to Paulson.

School Board 5

The two big players in this race, Carol Oyenarte and Jancie Vinson, may be in a runoff in spite of Oyenarte’s lead in the poll. It is just close enough that the Teachers’ Union and 4A’s endorsement of Vinson may get her in a runoff. But the spread is wide enough to make me think that Oyenarte may win it all in a squeaker next week.

Overview

Candidates toward the bottom of the ballot must always remember that the top of the ballot will be a factor in turnout. Most voters do not get jazzed about school board and county commission races. But if there is a marquee lineup at the top, like Crist vs Rubio promised to be, it can be a game changer. Likewise, when Crist dropped out of the Republican Party to run as an independent, it changed things for these races. The McCollum vs Scott primary has gotten so nasty that there is no driving force to get Republicans to come out in any greater number than usual. Meanwhile, the Democrat Primary has a Senate race in which African-Americans may come out to defend Kendrick Meek from Jeff Greene, and a Congressional Primary that pits long-timer Corrine Browne against Scott Fortune. These contests may be drawing cards to get out the East side vote, and this will help anyone endorsed by the 4As.