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	<title>alazycowboy.com</title>
	
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		<title>Have we reached a transformational point in the consumer driven economy?</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/18/have-we-reached-a-transformational-point-in-the-consumer-driven-economy/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/18/have-we-reached-a-transformational-point-in-the-consumer-driven-economy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 15:05:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1434</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The most popular post on the Wall Street Journal today is, “Wiping Out $90,000 in Student Loans in 7 Months”.&#160; Mihalic’s methods for reducing his costs are creative. He shows a gazelle like fear of debt that is emotionally necessary to paying debt down early and most importantly he is on the road to being [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The most popular post on the Wall Street Journal today is, “<a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/05/17/wiping-out-90000-in-student-loans-in-7-months/">Wiping Out $90,000 in Student Loans in 7 Months</a>”.&#160; Mihalic’s methods for reducing his costs are creative. He shows a gazelle like fear of debt that is emotionally necessary to paying debt down early and most importantly he is on the road to being completely debt free. Anyone who has lived no else for seven months probably has a plan for paying off his mortgage, too. This type of debt repayment would make <a href="http://www.daveramsey.com/home/">Dave Ramsey</a> proud but it does present some interesting questions about the economy. If this is the most popular post on the Wall Street Journal today, what does that say about the popularity of consumer debt? Has debt reduction become cool and has the America subconsciously picked a new socially acceptable debt level? I speculated in a previous <a href="http://alazycowboy.com/2012/04/09/the-dilemma-of-the-quantitative-easing/">post</a> that it makes a lot of sense for America to pay down its credit card debt to a level much lower than today. If the new level for socially acceptable consumer debt is a number that is much lower than in the previous fifty years, what does it say about our consumer driven economy over the next couple of years if the consumer is diverting some of their spending power to reduce debt? </p>
<p>Here are some of tricks he used to pay his debt down early.</p>
<blockquote><p>Mihalic said he spent months taking a flask of liquor to bars so he could continue to go out drinking with friends without running up a tab. (Be warned: this is typically illegal.) Instead of the movies, he took dates out hiking, or for bagels and coffee. He ate protein bars packed from home and walked several miles to the city, to save a few bucks on transportation, during a trip to Michigan. He got two roommates to rent out his house.</p>
<p>Mihalic also took steps that financial advisers typically say are a no-no: He liquidated his individual retirement account, drawing a tax penalty, and stopped contributing to his 401(k), even though his employer offers a matching contribution.</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth from 2010</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/16/non-farm-payroll-job-growth-from-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/16/non-farm-payroll-job-growth-from-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 17:43:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1432</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is a percentage chart I did of Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth since 2010 using FRED data. This is seasonally adjusted data they get from the BLS. The idea of this chart is to see the job creation performance in Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana compared to the US. Ohio and Indiana led the pack [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is a percentage chart I did of Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth since 2010 using <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=7gB">FRED data</a>. This is seasonally adjusted data they get from the BLS. The idea of this chart is to see the job creation performance in Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana compared to the US. Ohio and Indiana led the pack although all of these states had percentage increases less than the percentage increase for the US.</p>
<p><a href="http://alazycowboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/2010-Non-Farm-Payroll-Job-Growth.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="2010 Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth" border="0" alt="2010 Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth" src="http://alazycowboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/2010-Non-Farm-Payroll-Job-Growth_thumb.png" width="484" height="332" /></a></p>
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		<title>Attention Health Care Shoppers: Colorado’s New Price List For Procedures</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/16/attention-health-care-shoppers-colorados-new-price-list-for-procedures/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/16/attention-health-care-shoppers-colorados-new-price-list-for-procedures/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 11:29:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Healthcare]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1427</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is a health care reform I can get behind. I was amazed at the price difference for pregnancy care if you were willing to pay cash. For more information about the Colorado effort please go to the nonprofit Center for Improving Value in Health Care site. For more information about the nationwide effort go [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is a health care reform I can get behind. I was amazed at the price difference for pregnancy care if you were willing to pay cash. For more information about the Colorado effort please go to the nonprofit <a href="http://www.civhc.org/">Center for Improving Value in Health Care</a> site. For more information about the nationwide effort go to the <a href="http://www.civhc.org/CIVHC-Initiatives/Data-and-Transparency/All-Payer-Claims-Database.aspx">All Payer Claims Database</a> site.</p>
<blockquote><p>Colorado is one of 14 states that have or are setting up searchable databases designed to help people shop and compare health care options based on price and quality. </p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://feeds.kaiserhealthnews.org/~r/khn/~3/ZtlZURIaNt8/colorado-health-care-price-list-database.aspx">Attention Health Care Shoppers: Colorado&#8217;s New Price List For Procedures</a>    <br />Eric Whitney, Colorado Public Radio    <br />Wed, 16 May 2012 10:08:33 GMT</p>
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		<title>Job Creation Performance and Unemployment Rates for Wisconsin and Ohio</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/15/job-creation-performance-and-unemployment-rates-for-wisconsin-and-ohio/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/15/job-creation-performance-and-unemployment-rates-for-wisconsin-and-ohio/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 17:53:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1425</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everyone seems to be talking about state budgets and governors performance. I guess Menzie started things out with this post. Joe Wiesenthal followed up with this post. Although the job creation performance of Governor Walker in Wisconsin and Governor Kasich in Ohio are not resounding successes they are not complete failures either. In a recent [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everyone seems to be talking about state budgets and governors performance. I guess Menzie started things out with this <a href="http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/05/dispatches_xxi.html">post</a>. Joe Wiesenthal followed up with this <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/scott-walker-jobs-record-2012-5">post</a>. Although the job creation performance of Governor Walker in Wisconsin and Governor Kasich in Ohio are not resounding successes they are not complete failures either. In a recent post I found both states showed a dramatic improvement in business environment over the last two years according to <a href="http://www.ChiefExectutive.net/">ChiefExectutive.net</a>. Unfortunately popularity with chief executives does necessarily translate into jobs. The optimism of chief executives is not echoed in the <a href="http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/22658.html">2012 State Business Tax Climate Index</a> report by Tax Foundation. Wisconsin is number 43 on the list and Ohio is number 39.</p>
<p>Since Menzie pursued the job creation angle, I decided to use <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/">Fredgraph</a> to create an unemployment graph for Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois, and the United States, <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7eN">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7eN</a>. Looking at the graph I am not sure I would be complaining too much if I lived in Wisconsin. It could be worse. The job situation is much more precarious in Illinois. Although Menzie correctly points out that the job creation in in Wisconsin is pretty anemic, both Wisconsin and Ohio unemployment rates are below the national average. This is pretty good job performance considering how poorly they rank in business tax climate. Unfortunately most of the future job gains in Wisconsin and Ohio will probably come from job losses in other states such as Illinois. If Illinois&#8217;s unemployment rate remains above the average, their government financing remains a mess, and if either Wisconsin or Ohio can improve their business tax climate to a Illinois’s level, then Wisconsin and Ohio should be successful at poaching jobs from Illinois. This should be a major part of any jobs plan along with new jobs created by green industries and shale gas.</p>
<p><img src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7eN" /></p>
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		<title>A Tale of Two States, or: If They’re Going to Recall Walker, What’ll They Do to Brown?</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/14/a-tale-of-two-states-or-if-theyre-going-to-recall-walker-whatll-they-do-to-brown/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/14/a-tale-of-two-states-or-if-theyre-going-to-recall-walker-whatll-they-do-to-brown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2012 12:03:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1423</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here are the two highlights from this post, A Tale of Two States, or: If They’re Going to Recall Walker, What’ll They Do to Brown?. SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California’s budget deficit has swelled to a projected $16 billion — much larger than had been predicted just months ago — and will force severe cuts [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are the two highlights from this post, <a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/rightwingnews/hGmL/~3/c_JS53Th9v8/">A Tale of Two States, or: If They’re Going to Recall Walker, What’ll They Do to Brown?</a>. </p>
<blockquote><p>SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — <strong>California’s budget deficit has swelled to a projected $16 billion</strong> — much larger than had been predicted just months ago — and will force severe cuts to schools and public safety if voters fail to approve tax increases in November, Gov. Jerry Brown said Saturday.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Gov. Scott Walker’s administration released <strong>improved budget projections Thursday that would leave [Wisconsin] with a $154.5 million surplus a year from now</strong>. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The problem for the United States is that California is 13.09% of the economy in 2010 according to <a href="http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/">http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/</a> versus 1.71% for Wisconsin. If we look at the historical trend using a date from before the real estate collapse(2007), we get a cumulative growth of 1.40% for California versus 3.55% for all of the states combined. If 2008 was the peak of the real estate boom then it is easy to conclude that California has been stagnating for some time and we have flawed decision making that transcends the real estate bubble. Since I doubt a recovery in real estate construction will help California’s economy any time soon, they are being hit with the double whammy, real estate bubble and self inflicted wounds from bad decision making. When your plans for growing the economy fail, the only plan left is hoping that austerity measures will keep enough of your tax base around until the economy recovers. Pitting teachers, police, and social welfare programs against each other in a budget battle is never pretty. It should be interesting to see how voters respond in Wisconsin with the recall vote and in California with the tax raising referendums. Does running a balanced budget matter to voters?</p>
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		<title>My First Attempt at Brewing Beer</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/13/my-first-attempt-at-brewing-beer/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/13/my-first-attempt-at-brewing-beer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 May 2012 12:15:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1419</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is my first attempt at brewing Irish Red Ale. The picture was taken one week after brewing. Next week I plan to bottle the beer and in four weeks I hope to sample my a fine example of Irish Red Ale. I have already picked out my next brew. This is the time of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="photo sharing" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/29023191@N00/7187902668/"><img class="left" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7094/7187902668_b987968425.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>Here is my first attempt at brewing <a href="http://www.midwestsupplies.com/irish-red-ale.html">Irish Red Ale</a>. The picture was taken one week after brewing. Next week I plan to bottle the beer and in four weeks I hope to sample my a fine example of Irish Red Ale. I have already picked out my next brew. This is the time of year for a hefeweizen so my next selection is <a title="Hank's Hefeweizen" href="http://www.midwestsupplies.com/hank-s-hefeweizen.html">Hank&#8217;s Hefeweizen</a>.</p>
<p>This photo originally uploaded by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/29023191@N00/">billhuber</a>.</p>
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		<title>Da Beast</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/12/da-beast/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/12/da-beast/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 May 2012 19:34:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1415</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Da Beast, originally uploaded by billhuber.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: left; padding: 3px;">
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/29023191@N00/7183625240/" title="photo sharing"><img class="left" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7214/7183625240_027dc5e99c.jpg"  alt="" /></a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 0.8em; margin-top: 0px;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/29023191@N00/7183625240/">Da Beast</a>, originally uploaded by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/29023191@N00/">billhuber</a>.</span>
</div></p>
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		<title>Analyzing the European Austerity Argument</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/10/analyzing-the-european-austerity-argument/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/10/analyzing-the-european-austerity-argument/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 May 2012 18:42:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1412</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Veronique de Rugy started the uproar when she wrote this article, Fiscal Austerity in Europe Doesn’t Mean Large Spending Cuts. The graph everyone is linking to is: This article evidently rubbed the folks at The Economist the wrong way and they piped in with this analysis. Progress through last year is quite striking, given that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Veronique de Rugy started the uproar when she wrote this article, <a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/fiscal-austerity-europe-doesnt-mean-large-spending-cuts">Fiscal Austerity in Europe Doesn’t Mean Large Spending Cuts</a>. The graph everyone is linking to is:</p>
<p><img src="http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/fiscal-austerity-newnew580.jpg" width="240" height="172" /></p>
<p>This article evidently rubbed the folks at <a href="http://www.economist.com/">The Economist</a> the wrong way and they piped in with this analysis. </p>
<blockquote><p>Progress through last year is quite striking, given that the crisis only began in earnest in 2010. It has occurred despite truly pitiful growth (and ongoing recession in Greece). And there is more to come.</p>
<p>But what of the complaint that this is all due to tax increases, which don&#8217;t count, for some reason? That, too, is mistaken:</p>
<p><img title="" border="0" alt="" src="http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2012/05/blogs/free-exchange/expenditure.jpg" width="240" height="166" /></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Read more: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/economist.online.21554444.xml#ixzz1uTxwRJfl">http://www.businessinsider.com/economist.online.21554444.xml#ixzz1uTxwRJfl</a></p>
<p>For a person who has looked at a lot of graphs and tables in my life, the Economist analysis and graph is odd. I am not sure what these stacked bars, percentages, and projected expenses are supposed to tell me about austerity. Is that the total change in government spending since 2009? What does 2011-2013 projected spending have to do with spending over the last two years? So I downloaded the <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/economics-key-tables-from-oecd_2074384x;jsessionid=6eb6ed2ntqj1b.epsilon">OECD data</a>, reproduced Ms. de Rugy’s charts, and noticed this tidbit. If 2009 is the baseline then the Economist chart for Germany must be wrong. The OECD government final consumption data for Germany was $591.4 billion in 2009 and $630.1 billion in 2011 at current prices and current PPPs. Obviously this means that Germany increased their spending rather than reduced it. A similar argument can be made for France. Although the 2011 data was not available for France, it is unlikely France’s 2011 data will be below their 2009 number.</p>
<p>If we can agree that the OECD government final consumption data is a valid measure of austerity since it measures government spending and incorporates changes in purchasing power, then we can conclude that austerity is probably occurring in all of the countries in the graph except Germany and France.&#160; The overall level of reduced spending in these “austerity”countries(excluding Greece) is less than -3%. It is interesting to note that only Greece and Ireland are spending less than they did 2008 while most of the countries are well above their 2008 levels. Austerity seems to be defined as slightly less spending than you spent in 2009 but higher than what you spent in 2008. Since most of the countries listed in the chart are spending at 2008 levels or higher, I agree with Ms. de Rugy that the European austerity except for Greece has not meant large spending cuts. Austerity has not occurred in Germany and France and has been pretty mild in the rest of the “austerity” countries. </p>
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		<title>Spain, Portugal, and Humpty Dumpty</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/09/spain-portugal-and-humpty-dumpty/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/09/spain-portugal-and-humpty-dumpty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 May 2012 12:05:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1410</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was reading this morning about the never ending financial problems in Spain, Greece, and Portugal. These problems along with all of the countries and states who are following down the same path have left everyone in a general state of malaise and Greece’s election of neo-Nazis to their parliament aggravated it. This is an [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://alazycowboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/370px-Denslows_Humpty_Dumpty_1904.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" class="right" title="370px-Denslow&#39;s_Humpty_Dumpty_1904" border="0" alt="370px-Denslow&#39;s_Humpty_Dumpty_1904" src="http://alazycowboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/370px-Denslows_Humpty_Dumpty_1904_thumb.jpg" width="282" height="364" /></a>I was reading this morning about the never ending financial problems in Spain, Greece, and Portugal. These problems along with all of the countries and states who are following down the same path have left everyone in a general state of malaise and Greece’s election of neo-Nazis to their parliament aggravated it. This is an auspicious sign for the world. Our grand experiment with socialism and big government solutions is winding down and there is not much we can do about it. Fixing it will require politicians to make hard and unpopular choices. This leaves an opening for fascism. One of Hayek’s great concerns in the Road to Serfdom was that socialism would lay the groundwork for a return to fascism. Socialism is temporary state for someone intent on accumulating political power. All of this reminded me of this old nursery rhyme. </p>
<p>&#160;</p>
<blockquote><p>Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,      <br />Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.       <br />All the king&#8217;s horses and all the king&#8217;s men       <br />Couldn&#8217;t put Humpty together again.<sup><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humpty_Dumpty#cite_note-Opie1997-0">[1]</a></sup></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humpty_Dumpty">Humpty Dumpty &#8211; Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</a></p>
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		<title>Is “right to work” laws a form of redistributing the wealth?</title>
		<link>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/08/is-right-to-work-laws-a-form-of-redistributing-the-wealth/</link>
		<comments>http://alazycowboy.com/2012/05/08/is-right-to-work-laws-a-form-of-redistributing-the-wealth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2012 12:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bill</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Things that make me go hmm...]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://alazycowboy.com/?p=1405</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was reading a Buckeye Institute paper advocating “right to work” laws in Ohio and came up with this question. Does a government preference to contract for services at the prevailing union wages necessarily make the government pay more for government services than they would in a “right to work” state? If you&#160; believe that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was reading a Buckeye Institute <a href="http://buckeyeinstitute.org/workerfreedom">paper</a> advocating “right to work” laws in Ohio and came up with this question. Does a government preference to contract for services at the prevailing union wages necessarily make the government pay more for government services than they would in a “right to work” state? If you&#160; believe that the market rates in “right to work” states is the correct price for these services, then a government that pays too much for these services is redistributing the wealth to a select group of people. </p>
<p>I would not be surprised that the employees do not share this sentiment. Although they might agree that there may have been abuses in the past, I think they would quickly point out the good and bad points about their wages and benefit plans. Although wages are an obvious issue to the casual observer, both employees and management are primarily concerned with workplace and seniority rules as it relates to staffing. This has caused an embarrassing staffing mess in several cities and counties. It is ironic that the primary reason for a state like Ohio to embrace “right to work” statutes is because collective bargaining does not appear to allow any room for improvements on these issues. So the solution is to throw out collective bargaining. Hmm… I wonder how this is going to work.</p>
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