AlCircle: Latest alumina news update

WEEKLY: Chinese alumina prices hold flat as supply improves

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:45:00 +0530

China's alumina prices held broadly steady during May 1-7 after a brief uptick seen ahead of the May Day holiday over May 1-5, as cautious sentiment prevailed in the spot market amid signs of loosening supply following temporary pre-holiday tightness.

According to Mysteel's price assessment, the national average spot price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent stood at Yuan 2,705/tonne ($398.1/t) on May 7, unchanged from a week earlier.

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During and after the five-day holiday break, many alumina buyers stayed on the sidelines as earlier supply tightness – caused by production cuts in Guangxi – began to ease. The improvement in availability was supported by output from newly commissioned capacity and increased imports.

On the supply side, alumina production showed signs of recovery. Over May 1-7, output of metallurgical-grade alumina among the 44 producers under Mysteel's tracking rose by 0.9 per cent on week to 1.77 million tonnes, according to Mysteel's survey. This followed consecutive weekly declines in the previous two weeks, Mysteel Global noted.

In particular, production from new capacity in Guangxi that came online last month has started to be ramped up, alleviating the regional supply tightness that had emerged prior to the holiday due to earlier curtailments.

Meanwhile, inventory pressure continued to build. As of May 7, total alumina stocks across China's 10 major ports, 44 alumina refiners, 89 primary aluminium smelters, and rail yards or in-transit tracked by Mysteel had climbed by 0.74 per cent from a week earlier to reach a fresh record high of 5.98 million tonnes, Mysteel's survey showed.

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The increase was largely driven by a surge in portside inventories following fresh arrivals of imported alumina. Stocks at the 10 major ports jumped by 17 per cent on week to 448,000 tonnes, the highest level since late May 2022.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel

Aluminium producer Alcoa eyes Ukraine’s Mykolaiv Alumina Plant amid privatisation push

Mon, 11 May 2026 12:10:00 +0530

The United States-based Alcoa Corporation, one of the world's leading aluminium companies, has expressed interest in the Ukrainian Mykolaiv Alumina Plant (MAP). The information has been disclosed by the Head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine, Dmytro Natalukha. The update follows the announcement made by the State Property Fund in April 2026, offering the Mykolaiv Alumina Plant for privatisation in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the bid starting at USD 86 million.

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Although the name of Alcoa as a potential investor was not officially disclosed, it was mentioned that the interested body was a prominent public company specialised particularly in the aluminium industry. Moreover, market sources report that Alcoa, with its shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, happens to be the most likely bidder amongst the aluminium-producing firms listed on the NYSE database.

Natalukha elaborated that the State Property Fund representatives have initiated negotiations with the potential investor, and the talks were held in London. That being said, the ongoing geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains another major deciding factor, largely influencing decisions of the public international corporations about making long-term investments in Ukraine.

Thus, he noted, “They are large and public, so the chances that they will ultimately decide to enter the Ukrainian jurisdiction” with continued geopolitical tensions are “significantly lower than in the case of private companies.”

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The State Property Fund had previously noted that geopolitical risks rather than the company’s debt obligations remain the main obstacle to the sale of the Mykolaiv Alumina Plant. The agency is seeking a strategic foreign investor, with countries such as the US and India viewed as potential stakeholders.

Before the full-fledged onset of conflict between the two nations, the plant was a primary enterprise of Ukraine’s aluminium industry and a major supplier of alumina to Russia’s RUSAL.

The transfer of the asset to state ownership took nearly two years. In July 2022, MAP’s corporate rights were transferred to the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA). Before that, MAP used to support an estimated 5,000 jobs. But now, since the suspension of the facility's operations, it employs around 400 people on site to maintain critical infrastructure, manage red mud disposal areas, and ensure environmental safety.

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Middle East conflict disrupts NALCO’s alumina exports, affects prices

Mon, 11 May 2026 10:11:00 +0530

National Aluminium Company Limited’s (NALCO) exports 40 to 50 per cent of its produced alumina to the Middle East. According to Shri Brijendra Pratap Singh, Chairman and Managing Director, NALCO’s alumina exports to the region have been disrupted, owing to the geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing Middle East conflict among Iran, Israel, and the United States.

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In FY 2025-26, it produced 2.3 million tonnes of alumina, of which 1.31 million tonnes were exported. A shift in export destinations to mitigate inventory stagnation has conversely resulted in a decline in global spot alumina prices, which, at present, have been hovering between USD 305-310 per tonne.

Analysts observed that the aluminium value chain has been greatly affected by the Middle East conflict, with excess supply lowering spot alumina prices in certain markets, while refined aluminium prices climbed due to production halts and logistical disruptions.

The CMD noted, “Our alumina export to the Middle East ... a lot of around 40 per cent, 50 per cent of our export was going to the Middle East, which has been affected... Of course, that has resulted in a reduction in the spot prices.” As of May 8, alumina platts price on the London Metal Exchange remained at USD 307.15 per tonne.

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Moreover, West Asian smelters are currently operating at a reduced capacity, including the controlled shutdown of Aluminium Bahrain’s potlines 1, 2, and 3. Compounded by geopolitical tensions such as Iranian attacks on the facilities of Alba and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), there is no indication of restarting full-capacity operations for the time being.

The effect of the Middle East conflict reflected on NALCO’s financial calendar. The Q4 financial results for FY 2025-26 recorded the consolidated net profit dropping 16.6 per cent Y-o-Y to INR 17.18 billion (USD 181 million) due to weaker revenue and higher expenses, while revenue declined to INR 51.03 billion (USD 537.66 million) from INR 52.67 billion (USD 553.4 million) in the previous financial year.

Hence, NALCO stated, “production curtailment is there till [the smelters of the Middle East] reach the fullest capacity.” This would also leave a ripple effect on “the alumina pricing in the spot markets.”

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EU faces pressure as MEPs seek sanctions on Irish export to Russia’s Aughinish Alumina

Mon, 11 May 2026 08:12:00 +0530

Pressure is mounting on the Irish Government and the European Union’s (EU) branch of the European Commission to curb alumina exports from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina Plant to Russia. It has been alleged that the alumina content is being applied to indirectly offer support to the Russian defence sector.

The issue emerged after an investigation was undertaken by The Irish Times and the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. It was informed that alumina shipped from the Co Limerick refinery is being used by Russian smelters to produce aluminium, which is thereafter being supplied to defence-linked manufacturers.

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Aughinish Alumina previously asserted that it administered operations “in strict compliance with all applicable European Union laws, including sanctions, export control measures and trade regulations,” with a “due diligence framework covering its entire supply chain.”

In response, several Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), mainly from the European People's Party and Renew Europe blocs, have urged the European Commission to consider including alumina in the EU’s next sanctions package for Russia. European Parliament Vice-President Pina Picierno has questioned whether allowing such exports aligns with EU commitments supporting Ukraine.

In addition, an assembly of 39 MEPs (Members of the European Parliament) have sought to Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade, to ensure a ban on the “export of aluminium agreements to the Russian defence industry.”

The MEPs are hailing from 12 countries, such as Denmark, France, Germany, and Poland. Seventeen of the MEPs are from the Renew Europe group and eleven from the EPP, while Ireland has refrained from commenting on the matter.

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Ireland is consistently backing Aughinish Alumina’s exemption from sanctions, citing the refinery’s importance to regional employment and the local economy. The plant reportedly supports around 1,000 direct jobs and another 1,000 through associated companies.

Additional pressure has come from governments and lawmakers across Europe, including Belgium and Poland. Maxime Prévot, the Belgian Foreign Affairs Minister, has urged closing the “loopholes” in the framework of the sanctions. Concerns have also been raised by the Polish MEP Arkadiusz Mularczyk over whether alumina exports to Russia should face restrictions such as those already imposed by Australia.

Irish authorities, including the Department of Enterprise and the Department of Foreign Affairs, have confirmed ongoing scrutiny of the matter. Peter Burke, the Minister for Enterprise, maintained that alumina exports to Russia are currently not prohibited under existing EU sanctions. Meanwhile, EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan has indicated that alumina might have to be added to the sanctions framework if evidence confirms the material is contributing to Russian military production.

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NALCO expects alumina prices to be under pressure, while aluminium prices to ease in FY27

Sat, 09 May 2026 01:30:00 +0530

National Aluminium Company is preparing for a mixed market environment in FY27, with alumina expected to remain under pressure even as aluminium prices continue trading at elevated levels for now.

Speaking in an interview with CNBC-TV18, NALCO Chairman and Managing Director Brijendra Pratap Singh said the company expects global alumina oversupply to keep prices subdued through the year.

According to Singh, alumina prices are expected to stay in the range of around USD 300 to USD 310 per tonne during FY27. Aluminium, meanwhile, is currently trading around USD 3,500 to USD 3,600 per tonne, though the company expects prices to eventually settle closer to USD 3,000 to USD 3,100 once geopolitical tensions ease and supply chains begin normalising again.

He noted that even if conditions improve globally, demand recovery for alumina may take time because restarting smelters is not immediate. Singh said the process could take six to seven months, meaning excess alumina in the market is unlikely to disappear quickly.

NALCO is also entering an important expansion phase. The company’s new one million tonne refinery is expected to begin commissioning around June, although Singh indicated production ramp-up would be slower than originally anticipated.

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Because the refinery is a chemical process plant, stabilisation will take several months. Instead of the earlier target of around 500,000 tonnes this year, the company is now expecting production closer to two to 300,000 tonnes in FY27 before reaching full capacity from the following financial year onward.

At present, roughly half of NALCO’s alumina output is exported. Last year, the company sold around 1.4 million tonnes externally, with approximately 40 to 45 per cent of exports going to the Middle East on average. However, Singh said NALCO now wants to increase its domestic presence as demand within India continues to grow.

Domestic alumina sales, which stood at about 138,000 tonnes last year, are being targeted at more than 200,000 tonnes, potentially reaching 2,50,000 tonnes this year.

On the cost side, the company is also dealing with rising input prices. Singh said caustic soda prices have increased from around INR 42,000 (USD 423.69) to INR 45,000 (USD 476.65) per tonne, while calcined petroleum coke prices have climbed to roughly INR 50,000-53,000 (USD 529.62 - USD 561.39) per tonne from an earlier average near INR 44,000 (USD 466.06). Coal tar pitch prices have also risen by around six to seven per cent.

According to the company, these increases could add around INR 5,000 (USD 52.96) to INR 6,000 (USD 63.55) per tonne to aluminium production costs and roughly INR 2,000 (USD 21.18) per tonne to alumina costs.

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NALCO is hoping higher captive coal production will offset part of that pressure. The company produced around four million tonnes of coal last year and is targeting 4.8 million tonnes in FY27, which would cover a major share of fuel requirements for its power operations.

Despite higher aluminium realisations, Singh acknowledged that EBITDA could soften slightly this year because of higher costs and depreciation linked to expansion projects.

NALCO reported Q4FY26 revenue of INR 50.13 billion, with margins of 46.8 per cent and net profit of INR 17.22 billion (USD 182.40 million). The company’s shares were trading around INR 399 (USD 4.23) on the NSE at the time of the interview, up around 158 per cent over the past year.

Singh also clarified during the CNBC interview that there are currently no plans for government disinvestment or an offer-for-sale in NALCO.

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Global alumina production drops 6.1% in Q1 2026 as major markets retreat Q-o-Q, while North America moves against the trend

Thu, 07 May 2026 17:30:00 +0530

Global metallurgical-grade alumina production lost momentum in Q1 2026 after several key producing regions scaled back from the exceptionally strong output levels seen at the end of 2025, with North America emerging as the only region to register quarter-on-quarter growth, albeit marginally. China underwent widespread refinery maintenance and environmental shutdowns, Asia & Africa normalised after aggressive year-end production pushes, while Europe and Oceania continued battling energy pressures, maintenance activity and operational disruptions.

These combined factors pulled global alumina production down 6.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 35.4 million tonnes in Q1 2026 from 37.7 million tonnes in Q4 2025. However, compared with Q1 2025, worldwide output remained broadly stable, rising marginally by 0.28 per cent from 35.3 million tonnes.

China slows, but expansion plans remain firmly in place

China once again dominated the global alumina landscape, producing an estimated 21.3 million tonnes in Q1 2026 - exactly the same level as a year earlier. The real change came when compared with Q4 2025. Output fell 7.8 per cent from 23.1 million tonnes, making China one of the largest contributors to the global quarterly decline.

The slowdown was not caused by weak demand alone. Early in January, several northern Chinese refineries entered scheduled annual maintenance. Around the same time, an alumina refinery in Henan halted operations entirely due to environmental policy requirements. Additional maintenance activity followed in Guangxi and Guizhou, where some plants temporarily lost nearly half of their operating capacity.

Although some facilities restarted toward the end of the quarter, production still remained under pressure. January metallurgical-grade alumina output in China dropped 1.78 per cent month-on-month, while national operating capacity also declined sequentially and year-on-year.

Even so, China’s long-term ambitions remain clear. Four new alumina projects are expected to come online during 2026, potentially adding another 8.6 million tonnes of annual production capacity.

Also read: Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook.

Africa and Asia ex-China: the region that refused to slow down

Africa & Asia excluding China emerged as the strongest growth region in Q1 2026, with alumina production rising 10.9 per cent year-on-year to 3.77 million tonnes. The increase was supported by refinery expansions, stronger operating rates and rising downstream investments across India and Southeast Asia, with Indonesia playing a key role in the region’s supply growth.

PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia significantly boosted regional production after completing the ramp-up of its second 1 million tonnes per annum alumina line in December 2025, strengthening output capacity heading into 2026.

However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, production in the region eased 1.8 per cent from the record-high 3.84 million tonnes achieved in Q4 2025. The previous quarter had seen producers aggressively increase operating rates to meet year-end targets and accelerate shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year period, creating an unusually high production base. Also read: Alumina production in Africa and Asia (ex-China) up 5% in 2025-exploring what drove the rise.

As refinery operations returned to more sustainable levels after the holiday rush, output softened amid Chinese New Year slowdowns, temporary maintenance activity and inventory adjustments. Despite the quarterly decline, the region’s long-term growth momentum remains firmly positive.\

Also read: 36Mt of global alumina capacity remains unutilised, with China and Asian region showing the widest gap

North America and South America move in different directions

North America managed to post the only quarter-on-quarter increase among all major producing regions, although the rise was extremely modest. Output edged up 0.26 per cent to 388,000 tonnes in Q1 2026 from 387,000 tonnes in Q4 2025.

The improvement came almost entirely from the Gramercy refinery operated by Atalco. Process optimisation measures, including improved bauxite blend efficiency and other operational tweaks, added roughly 1,000 tonnes of production during the quarter. These gains helped offset the fact that Q1 had fewer operating days than Q4.

The yearly picture, however, looked far weaker. North American alumina production fell 12.4 per cent from 443,000 tonnes in Q1 2025 to 388,000 tonnes in Q1 2026, the steepest year-on-year decline globally. High labour and energy costs continued to pressure refinery economics across the region, while restructuring measures introduced during the difficult market conditions of 2024 and 2025 also reduced utilisation rates. Maintenance disruptions and shipment delays reported by producers such as Alcoa further weighed on output.

South America presented a more stable outlook. Regional production rose 1.8 per cent year-on-year to 2.8 million tonnes, largely supported by Hydro’s Alunorte refinery in Brazil, the world’s largest alumina refinery with 6.3 million tonnes annual capacity.

Alunorte maintained output of around 930,000 tonnes during Q1 2026, helped by infrastructure upgrades completed in 2024, including improvements to bauxite slurry pipeline systems. Stronger alumina pricing also supported refinery profitability. Even so, production slipped slightly from Q4 2025 as the region moved away from elevated year-end operating levels.

Also read: Global aluminium production drops 1.6% Q-o-Q in Q1 2026, led by declines across Africa, GCC, South America, and Oceania

Europe and Oceania face a tougher operating environment

Europe’s alumina industry entered 2026 under significant strain. Production in the region, including Russia, dropped 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 6.1 per cent year-on-year to 1.38 million tonnes.

The biggest challenge was energy. Gas prices across Western Europe surged nearly 40 per cent during February and March 2026, reaching close to EUR 45 per MWh. The increase sharply weakened refinery economics and forced producers to curb output. Aluminium Dunkerque Industries in France reduced capacity by around 3 per cent, removing nearly 4,000 tonnes of quarterly production. Norsk Hydro’s Slovakian operations also continued operating at only around 40 per cent utilisation because of elevated power costs.

Oceania faced similar pressure, although for different reasons. Regional alumina production declined 6.3 per cent from Q4 2025 and fell 3.9 per cent year-on-year to 4.14 million tonnes. Seasonal maintenance at Australian refineries was a major factor behind the decline. Alcoa’s Kwinana, Pinjarra and Wagerup operations underwent planned overhauls during the quarter, including digester inspections and pipeline upgrades.

Weather disruptions added another layer of pressure on Oceania’s alumina sector during the quarter. Cyclone threats and heavy rainfall across parts of Western Australia and Queensland disrupted mining operations, logistics movements and refinery activity, slowing overall production momentum.

However, the region’s challenges run much deeper than short-term weather events. Oceania’s alumina industry has been gradually losing strength over the past few years, with production during January-June 2025 already down 2.4 per cent year-on-year and nearly 8 per cent lower than 2023 levels. A major reason behind this decline has been the gradual closure of Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery in Western Australia.

Once considered one of Australia’s key alumina assets with annual capacity of 2.2 million tonnes, Kwinana has struggled under the weight of ageing infrastructure, rising maintenance bills and deteriorating bauxite quality, which made refining more energy-intensive and expensive.

Taken together, Q1 2026 highlighted how quickly the global alumina market can shift from expansion to caution, as maintenance cycles, energy volatility, operational disruptions and changing regional competitiveness increasingly reshape the industry’s production balance.

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Here’s why we deduce red mud to be aluminium industry’s next resource frontier

Tue, 05 May 2026 05:25:00 +0530

For decades, the aluminium industry has lived with a structural contradiction: for every tonne of alumina produced, it generated up to 1.5 tonnes of highly alkaline waste. That equation has now reached a breaking point.

With global alumina output crossing 141 million tonnes in 2023 and 154 million tonnes in 2025, annual bauxite residue generation has already exceeded 175 million tonnes. The cumulative stockpile stands at an estimated 4 billion tonnes, making it one of the largest untapped secondary mineral reserves on the planet.

In 2026, that legacy is no longer being managed. It is being mined.

Not sustainability alone, but a convergence of economics, regulation, and geopolitics

Red mud, long treated as a disposal liability due to its pH of 10-13 and contamination risks, is now being re-evaluated as a multi-metal resource containing iron, alumina, titanium, silica, and, critically, scandium, gallium, and rare earth elements.

Residue composition varies sharply across geographies, but the underlying opportunity is consistent. Iron oxide content ranges from 28.5 per cent in some Australian refineries to as high as 56.9 per cent, while Indian residues at Damanjodi report around 53 per cent Fe₂O₃. Alumina content typically sits between 15 per cent and 24 per cent, with silica and lime levels dictating downstream usability.

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That variability is no longer a barrier. High-iron residues in India and Australia are being positioned for metallurgical recovery. In contrast, China’s sintering-derived residues, containing up to 41.6 per cent CaO and 32.5 per cent SiO, are being directly integrated into cement production, bypassing costly pre-treatment.

Impact of the trace element level

Scandium concentrations in red mud range from 45 to 150 ppm — more than double the Earth’s average crustal abundance. Gallium levels reach up to 200 ppm, while vanadium can approach 800 ppm. Rare earth elements such as cerium and lanthanum further strengthen the case.

In the US, residue deposits such as the Gramercy site in Louisiana hold around 30 million tonnes of material with REE concentrations estimated at 3,000-4,000 ppm. At a time when supply chains for gallium and rare earths are increasingly weaponised, this proves to be a treasure for the region.

Technology is catching up with this ambition

The most disruptive development has been the commercial scaling of Flash Joule Heating (FJH) with chlorination. The process compresses what was once an energy-intensive, multi-stage operation into a 60-second reaction, extracting more than 96 per cent of iron while retaining 99 per cent of aluminium in the residue. It simultaneously removes sodium and volatilises toxic metals, addressing both recovery and environmental challenges in a single step.

Hydrometallurgical systems are evolving in parallel, with staged acid leaching now achieving around 90 per cent recovery of iron and aluminium, followed by selective precipitation that delivers over 95 per cent iron recovery and up to 80 per cent recovery of rare earths. A 2025 breakthrough using ammonium sulfate roasting has further improved scandium extraction while keeping iron dissolution below 0.12 per cent, significantly improving selectivity.

Meanwhile, high-volume recovery is moving into industrial scale. In Brazil, a project scheduled for completion in mid-2026 will process 50,000 tonnes of residue annually to produce 9,000 tonnes of pig iron and 22,000 tonnes of construction materials. In China, combined roasting technologies are already delivering iron recovery rates above 93 per cent alongside aluminium purity of 99.49 per cent.

Also Read: Global bauxite production Q1’26: How the trend fared amid geopolitics and market shifts

Bioleaching long considered experimental, is beginning to show economic viability

Recovery rates of 70 per cent for terbium and 60 per cent for gadolinium within three days, combined with capital costs as low as USD 30-50 million per million tonnes of capacity, are positioning it as a viable low-energy alternative.

India is building a hybrid model. A 10-tonne-per-day pilot is targeting simultaneous recovery of iron, alumina, and scandium, while converting residual material into construction bricks, potentially 1 million units annually. With the country’s construction sector projected to reach USD 1.4 trillion by 2047, the demand-side pull is already in place.

China is scaling through mandate. With over 100 million tonnes of residue generated annually, Beijing has set utilisation targets of 15 per cent by 2027 and 25 per cent by 2030, backed by multi-billion-yuan investments in clinker and materials production.

Europe is leaning on decarbonisation. Projects such as ReActiv have demonstrated that bauxite residue can replace up to 30 per cent of cement clinker, cutting emissions by a similar margin while reducing landfill dependence.

The United States, in contrast, is framing the issue through national security. Federal funding is now directly targeting the recovery of gallium and scandium, aiming to rebuild domestic supply chains that have been absent for decades.

The show up in market fundamentals

The global red mud processing market, valued at USD 116.51 million in 2024, is projected to reach USD 171.09 million by 2032, growing at 4.92 per cent annually. But the real economics lie beneath that headline number.

Iron recovery alone could yield between 45 and 90 million tonnes annually at prices of USD 90-120 per tonne. Alumina recovery adds another 15-30 million tonnes at USD 250-400 per tonne. Gallium output, though smaller in volume, could reach up to 30,000 tonnes, commanding strategic premiums.

Layer in avoided disposal costs of USD 5-15 per tonne and carbon credits of USD 20-60 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, and the financial logic begins to shift decisively from cost centre to revenue stream.

What is emerging is not a marginal efficiency gain. It is a structural rewrite of the alumina value chain.

The industry is moving towards full-spectrum valorisation — neutralising residue, extracting bulk metals, refining critical minerals, and converting the remainder into construction-grade materials. In this model, waste does not exist. Only underutilised feedstock does.

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The implication is clear

With 150 million tonnes of new residue added every year, the recalibration is no longer optional. It is becoming central to how the industry competes.

Alcoa Australia posts USD 592 million loss on USD 1.25 billion Kwinana rehab costs

Sun, 03 May 2026 06:30:00 +0530

The Alcoa plant in Australia entered into losses in 2025 as the costs went up dramatically due to the shutdown and the subsequent cleanup of the Kwinana alumina refinery, which clearly indicated that environmental cleanup was quite costly.

It is clear from the documents filed with the corporate watchdog that Alcoa of Australia had a restructuring charge of USD 1.245 billion during 2025, which was mainly due to the closure of the Kwinana alumina refinery in Perth. Due to this, the company registered a net loss of USD 592 million against a profit of USD 818 million that it had made in 2024.

Also Read: Alumina’s journey through 2025: A year known for ambition, friction and recalibration

The most recent provision consists of USD 614 million that will cover costs incurred in the future when closing down the facility and cleaning up the environment. Added to the previous USD 445 million provision made in 2024, the total cost for closing the Kwinana plant would be around USD 1.7 billion.

Though this was a major setback for the organisation, other operations within its Australian business continued running smoothly. The organisation reported earnings of USD 6.1 billion from alumina and aluminium sales, with expenses of USD 4.9 billion to employees and suppliers, and USD 636 million in dividends to stockholders.

The Kwinana-related expense is considered a one-off, suggesting a potential return to profitability in 2026, provided no further significant restructuring costs arise.

Explore- Most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Alcoa continues to operate bauxite mining activities in Western Australia’s jarrah forest regions along the Darling Scarp, alongside alumina refineries at Pinjarra and Wagerup. It also holds a 55 per cent stake in the Portland aluminium smelter in Victoria.

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However, mining operations have faced mounting challenges. Starting from 2023, Alcoa is expected to use low-quality bauxite ore due to delays in approvals for mining new sites as a result of stringent environmental regulations, especially in relation to water catchments around Perth. This has resulted in a steady reduction in bauxite production year after year for the last five years.

In 2029, the company will explore Myara North and Holyoake, a delay from the expected 2027 timeline. Although alumina costs in Western Australia are low, potential export constraints may impact this.

36Mt of global alumina capacity remains unutilised, with China and Asian region showing the widest gap

Sat, 02 May 2026 06:40:00 +0530

Global metallurgical alumina production has been expanding in a measured and consistent manner. Output rose from 130.4 million tonnes in 2021 to 133.1 million tonnes in 2022, followed by gradual increases to 134.8 million tonnes in 2023 and 137.8 million tonnes in 2024.

The trajectory strengthened in 2025, with production reaching 144.9 million tonnes, reflecting a sharper 5.2 per cent rise.

However, the underlying dynamics point to a market that is not constrained by supply capacity. With global installed refining capacity at around 181 million tonnes in 2025 and utilisation levels between 85 per cent and 87 per cent, nearly 36 million tonnes of capacity remains unutilised. This indicates that output is being actively managed rather than maximised, with producers responding to demand signals, cost structures, and regional operating conditions.

China remains central to this balance. Installed capacity in 2025 stands at 114.1 million tonnes, while operating capacity is 95.3 million tonnes and actual production is 94.5 million tonnes. The gap of 19.6 million tonnes between installed and actual capacity highlights the extent of built-in flexibility within the system.

Despite this, utilisation remains strong at around 83 per cent, supported by concentrated production in key provinces such as Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangxi, which together account for more than 70 per cent of total capacity.

Across the rest of Asia, excluding China, refining capacity stands at 22.1 million tonnes in 2025, led by India with 12.5 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia at 8.3 million tonnes and Vietnam at 1.3 million tonnes. This distribution suggests that while China dominates current supply, the broader Asian region is gradually building its capacity base.

It also highlights that China and the broader Asian region account for a significant gap between installed capacity and actual utilisation. For a deeper perspective on how this imbalance is expected to evolve, the Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook provides a detailed long-term view of supply, demand, and pricing trends.

China’s under-construction alumina projects

China’s near-term alumina pipeline is centred on coastal, import-dependent refining hubs, with multiple operators scaling capacity through integrated greenfield builds and brownfield expansions.

East Hope Group – Beihai, Guangxi is developing a large integrated refining complex targeting 4.8 million tonnes per year. The project combines greenfield development with phased expansions, including a current incremental addition of 2.0 million tonnes and subsequent capacity ramp-ups from 2.0 million tonnes and 3.4 million tonnes toward the full 4.8 million tonnes.

Guangxi Long’an Hetai New Material Co., Ltd - Long’an, Guangxi is building a 1.2 million tonne greenfield refinery. The project is scheduled for Q1 2026, will use imported bauxite, and remains under construction.

TBEA Co., Ltd - Fangchenggang, Guangxi is executing a combined greenfield and expansion strategy, scaling capacity to 2.4 million tonnes. This includes a greenfield build and a brownfield expansion from 1.2 million tonnes, together adding 1.2 million tonnes incrementally. The project is targeted for H1 2026, will depend on imported bauxite, and is under construction.

Chongqing Bosai Mineral Group – Jiulong Wanbo, Chongqing is expanding capacity from 4.6 million tonnes to 5.6 million tonnes through a brownfield project, adding 1.0 million tonnes. The project is expected in 2026, will utilise imported bauxite, and is under construction.

Lubei Marine Biology Co., Ltd – Lubei, Shandong is increasing capacity from 2.0 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes, adding 0.5 million tonnes through a brownfield expansion. The project is scheduled for 2026, relies on imported bauxite, and remains under construction.

Guangxi Guangtou Lingang Industry Co., Ltd – Beihai, Guangxi is developing a combined greenfield and expansion platform, targeting 2.0 million tonnes. This includes a new refinery alongside an expansion from 1.0 million tonnes, adding 1.0 million tonnes. The project is expected in 2026.

Hebei Huasheng New Material Co., Ltd – Tangshan, Hebei is constructing a 3.06 million tonne greenfield refinery, fully incremental. The project is expected by 2028, and will include integration with 2.15 million tonnes of aluminium hydroxide capacity.

Also read: Alumina production in Africa and Asia (ex-China) up 5% in 2025-exploring what drove the rise

Planned alumina projects in China

China’s longer-term alumina pipeline is characterised by larger-scale projects, with several mega-refineries planned across northern and coastal regions, often developed in phased stages.

Jinzhou Port Co., Ltd – Qihui, Chifeng is planning a large-scale integrated refinery development targeting 6.5 million tonnes. The project combines a greenfield build with phased expansion from an initial 1.3 million tonnes toward full capacity. Timeline remains to be determined.

Hangzhou Jinjiang Group – Longzhou Xinxing, Guangxi is planning a brownfield expansion from 1.0 million tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes, adding 0.7 million tonnes. Timeline is yet to be defined.

Inner Mongolia Zhuxuan New Material Co., Ltd - Dalat, Ordos is expanding capacity from 1.0 million tonnes to 3.6 million tonnes, adding 2.6 million tonnes through a brownfield project.

Hebei Wenfeng Steel & Aluminium Industry Co., Ltd – Caofeidian, Hebei is developing a 4.8 million tonne greenfield refinery, fully incremental.

Hebei Xinya United Metallurgical Holding Group – Cangzhou, Hebei, through Hebei Xinye Materials Co., Ltd, is planning a 7.4 million tonne greenfield refinery, entirely incremental.

Tangshan Guotang Iron & Steel Co., Ltd – Tangshan, Hebei, via Tangshan Yujialian New Material Co., Ltd, is also developing a 7.4 million tonne greenfield refinery, fully incremental.

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited – Dalian, Liaoning is planning a 3.0 million tonne greenfield refinery under its Northern Coastal Aluminium Industrial Base, entirely incremental.

East Hope Group – Fengdu, Chongqing is developing a 3.2 million tonne greenfield refinery, fully incremental.

Geely Baikuang Group – Fangchenggang, Guangxi is planning an integrated refinery complex targeting 4.8 million tonnes, combining a greenfield build with expansion from an initial 2.4 million tonnes, adding 2.4 million tonnes incrementally.

Asia’s alumina push driven by India

Asia’s alumina sector is gradually gaining momentum, with a mix of capacity expansions, greenfield developments, and large integrated projects shaping the region’s refining landscape.

National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) – Damanjodi, Odisha is expanding its alumina refinery with the addition of a 1.0 MTPA fifth stream. The expansion is closely linked to the development of the Pottangi bauxite mine, with both projects expected to come online around June 2026, strengthening upstream integration and feedstock security.

Hindalco Industries Limited – Rayagada, Odisha is developing a greenfield alumina refinery with a capacity of 850 KTPA as part of its broader downstream and upstream expansion strategy. The first phase is targeted for commissioning in FY27, with timelines pointing to completion by March 2027.

At the same time, Hindalco’s Utkal Alumina refinery – Odisha is slated for a major expansion from 1.5 MTPA to 3.0 MTPA. While the project has secured long-standing environmental clearance, it remains delayed, with no updated commissioning timeline currently confirmed.

Vedanta Limited – Rayagada, Odisha is planning a large integrated complex comprising a 6 MTPA alumina refinery alongside a 3 MTPA aluminium smelter. The first phase is expected to be commissioned within three years of its 2024 announcement, indicating a likely timeline in the 2027–2028 period. How these additions translate into actual production, trade flows, and pricing cycles is examined in detail in the Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook.

Also, Pioneer Aluminium Industries is developing a 1.5 million tonnes per annum alumina refinery in Andhra Pradesh, but for now producing only 0.5 million tonnes.

Vietnam: gradual but structured expansion

Vietnam’s pipeline is more measured but clearly defined. In Lam Dong Province, a USD 2.3 billion investment will expand two Vinacomin-operated plants, adding 1.2 million tonnes each at Nhân Cơ and Bao Lam.

The Bao Lam expansion is scheduled for completion by the third quarter of 2030, with commercial operations starting in the fourth quarter of 2030.

Duc Giang Chemicals is also planning a 2.0 million tonne alumina refinery as part of a larger integrated complex in Tuy Duc. The project, backed by an MoU signed in October 2025, is designed as a five-year build-out targeting completion by 2030, although the commissioning timeline remains unspecified.

Indonesia’s alumina expansion and oversupply concerns

Indonesia presents a different growth pattern, with development clustered around resource-rich regions. In the Riau Islands, PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia operates a 4 mtpa refinery, while PT Tianshan Alumina Indonesia – Lingga is planning a 2 mtpa project. In Banten, PT Banten Anugerah Industri Kemajuan is advancing a project with undisclosed capacity, and in Belitung, PT Green Indonesia Alumina is planning a 2.4 mtpa refinery.

West Kalimantan remains the core hub. PT Kalimantan Alumina Refinery – North Kayong is planning a 2 mtpa refinery, while Ketapang hosts multiple operations, including PT Well Harvest Winning Alumina Refinery at 2 mtpa and PT Borneo Alumindo Prima, which operates 1 mtpa and is planning a 5 mtpa expansion. Additional projects include PT Supreme Alumina Indonesia at 2 mtpa and PT Phoenix Alumina Industri, still at the planning stage.

In Sanggau, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara is planning 1–1.2 mtpa, while PT Westrefield Alumina Indonesia is considering a phased 1–6 mtpa project. The region also hosts PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina, which operates a 300 ktpa chemical-grade facility.

In Mempawah, PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia is doubling capacity from 1 mtpa with an additional 1 mtpa expansion. Beyond this cluster, PT Progressive Indonesia Alumina – East Kotawaringin is planning a 1 mtpa refinery, marking gradual geographic diversification.

However, concerns over potential oversupply are beginning to surface. Indonesia’s state-owned aluminium company, PT Inalum, has urged the government to consider a moratorium on new alumina and aluminium projects, citing pressure on bauxite reserves and the risk of excess capacity.

According to the company’s estimates, if all pipeline projects come online, Indonesia’s alumina production capacity could rise sharply to around 29.8 million tonnes, compared with roughly 9 million tonnes at present.

Also read: Indonesia’s aluminium industry to be hit by 317% inflated power hunger, with a potential 9.5 GW demand by 2028

What happens if all this capacity comes online

If all under-construction and planned projects in China are completed, alumina capacity could rise by around 43.2 million tonnes, taking total capacity to roughly 157 million tonnes. This would create additional room for higher operating rates and production growth.

Across Asia, planned projects could add between 28 million tonnes and 32 million tonnes of refining capacity, reinforcing the region’s role as the next major centre of alumina supply expansion.

These long-term dynamics-and how the capacity-utilisation gap may eventually rebalance-are explored in the Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook.

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South32 valuation under the lens after Q3 update, Australia manganese guidance cut

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 13:00:00 +0530

Recent investment attention has been brought towards South32 after announcing its production report for the quarter ending March 2026, along with reducing its forecasted Australia Manganese by 6 per cent on account of water management issues.

These results provide details of the company’s performance for the current period in terms of production of its various assets, including Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina and Aluminium, Hillside and Mozal Aluminium, Sierra Gorda, Cannington, and its manganese assets. However, all other operations were running as expected, but the reduction in its manganese forecast is worrying.

Also Read: South32 delivers mixed alumina and stable aluminium results amid Q3’26 market shifts

This guidance update occurs amid stock price action that suggests the stock may have some momentum challenges. The stock experienced a 7-day return of 5.33 per cent and a 90-day return of 8.97 per cent. Nonetheless, this is far removed from the stock’s strong track record that includes a one-year total shareholder return of 59.19 per cent and a five-year return of 76.02 per cent.

Shares of the company are priced at AUD 4.26 (USD 2.77), putting the stock below several widely recognised benchmarks for valuation. The market consensus on the fair value for the stock is at AUD 4.91 (USD 3.19), implying an undervaluation of 13.3 per cent. The outlook is mainly underpinned by projections of continuous earnings growth owing to the company’s access to metals that are crucial to the energy transition.

Investments in ongoing copper and base metal developments, such as Hermosa and the development of the Sierra Gorda mine, have been regarded as important growth catalysts. The value proposition will also rely on the increasing global demand for metals required to manufacture renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles.

Explore- Most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

However, the valuation opportunity depends on some operational matters. For example, managing energy costs and ensuring a constant energy supply when smelting metals will be critical. Besides, the ability to manage capital expenditure and avoid any cost overruns will be crucial in deciding the company’s future profitability.

Despite the perceived undervaluation, alternative metrics present a more cautious picture. South32’s current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 34.6 times, significantly higher than the Australian metals and mining industry average of 12.8 times and above the peer average of 26.5 times. It also exceeds the company’s own historical fair multiple of 25.7 times.

The divergence between valuation narratives highlights the market’s balancing act between near-term operational risks and longer-term growth expectations, particularly as production challenges emerge in select segments.

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