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AL Circle analysis: Trade policies, carbon costs, supply trends shape aluminium scrap market outlook

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 07:30:00 +0530

As aluminium increasingly becomes a strategic raw material for decarbonisation and advanced manufacturing, the focus is no longer limited to primary metal production. From export restrictions and carbon pricing to import duties and circular economy measures, a growing wave of policy interventions is reshaping global aluminium scrap flows. These developments are influencing availability, pricing and competitiveness across aluminium supply chains.

Trade scenarios

When it comes to scrap leakage, Europe takes the centre stage. While in 2024 the European Union’s aluminium scrap outflow exceeded 1.2 million tonnes, in 2025 it neared 1.3 million tonnes, settling at 1.27 million tonnes.

As industrial analysts warn the administration of stricter measures to safeguard quality aluminium scrap and treat it as a strategic resource, the following nations offer a contrasting export chart:

The United Kingdom’s total aluminium scrap exports reached 623,584 tonnes in 2025, according to Customs data. These volumes have been on the rise since the start of this decade as the collection grows and the domestic recycling capacity remains largely stagnant.

Domestic manufacturing trade agency Make UK has advocated that the country needs a 25 per cent annual growth rate in recycling capacity to meet its Modern Industrial Strategy demands. It acknowledges that around 84 per cent of the UK’s aluminium scrap is still being exported today.

In January-April 2026, the UK’s aluminium scrap exports climbed 9 per cent to 217,611 tonnes from 200,374 tonnes in the year prior.

Primary markets: UK’s largest markets with import potential are:

India with 60,054 tonnes
Hong Kong, securing 34,666 tonnes
China, sourcing 20,261 tonnes
The US, with imports surging 174 per cent Y-o-Y to 17,230 tonnes

Germany exported 311,491 tonnes of aluminium scrap to the global market in Q1 2026, up marginally by 0.5 per cent from 310,057 tonnes in Q1 2025. The increase was more pronounced on a quarterly basis, with exports rising 8.8 per cent from 286,285 tonnes in Q4 2025.

Primary markets: While its largest market, Italy, reported an import decline, sourcing 46,941 tonnes, the following markets held strong with shipment volume hikes.

Austria, with imports up 13.2 per cent Y-o-Y to 43,838 tonnes from 38,711 tonnes and 23.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter from 35,553 tonnes.
The Netherlands imported 31,438 tonnes, up 9.8 per cent Q-o-Q from 28,639 tonnes.
Poland imported 22,859 tonnes, up 3.5 per cent Q-o-Q from 22,080 tonnes in Q4 2025.
France, with 20,026 tonnes, up 41.2 per cent Y-o-Y surge from 14,180 tonnes and 8.4 per cent Q-o-Q from 18,479 tonnes.

The sourcing surge by these countries is expected to open new business avenues.

Key takeaways:

Considering an intra-continent vs inter-continent trade scenario, the calculation will be like this:

Emissions Trading System (ETS) cost calculating formula: Total Cost = Fuel Consumed × CO₂ Factor × Phase-in × Trade Share × EUA Price

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) calculating formula: Carbon Cost (per tonne) = Scope 1 Intensity (t CO₂e / t metal) x Current EU ETS Price

Converted to EUR per kilogramme: EUR per kilogram impact = (Intensity × ETS price) ÷ 1,000

The ETS formula can change a lot depending on the phase-in factor and trade share, while CBAM is more straightforward because it charges on the carbon intensity of the imported product itself.

AS CBAM also uses the EU ETS price, under a conservative EU ETS scenario of EUR 80, CBAM surcharges increase extrusion import costs by EUR 0.04-0.10 per kilogramme.

In contrast, under an aggressive EUR 150 scenario, this premium widens to EUR 0.075-0.18 per kilogramme, and could climb even higher if default values are applied.

Looking at the other side of the coin, primary aluminium price as per the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark hovers around USD 3,150 to USD 3,160 per tonne, while aluminium scrap is priced around USD 2,200 to USD 2,300 per tonne, 28.22 per cent less.

In terms of availability, while aluminium scrap gains greater attention as a strategic material, primary aluminium inventory, usually stocked sufficiently, has recently sustained disruptions owing to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Consequently, its demand has shot up considerably, from tonnes at the close of February to tonnes on July 9, down 39.6 per cent over the months.

Delve deeper into the recycled aluminium and secondary aluminium market with our World Recycled ALuminium Market Analysis Industry forecast to 2032

Policy measures

A forecast of 2026 trade policies included the imposition of CBAM, or the likelihood of inclusion of aluminium scrap into the US tariff regime. Japan’s circular economy and the United Arab Emirates’ export fee policy were worth a deep dive into.

In reality, which regions have come under the limelight?

The European Union

The European Commission has proposed a 15 per cent duty on aluminium scrap exports as part of a broader effort to strengthen the EU's circular economy and secure more recycled metal for domestic industry. The proposal aims to address concerns that large volumes of valuable scrap are leaving Europe while demand for low-carbon secondary aluminium continues to rise. Industry groups have largely welcomed the move, arguing that retaining more scrap within the region could support recycling capacity, reduce import dependence and improve the competitiveness of Europe's aluminium value chain, although the measure will still require approval through the EU legislative process.

The United States

The American Aluminum Association has urged the US administration to strengthen the nation’s aluminium supply chain by expanding both primary and secondary production. The association noted that although US primary aluminium production has fallen about 80 per cent since the 1980s, recycling now accounts for nearly 85 per cent of domestic aluminium output, supported by more than USD 11 billion in industry investment over the past decade.

The association pushed recycling boosts through stronger scrap retention policies and, for primary aluminium, recommended expanding access to affordable electricity, streamlining project approvals, supporting critical mineral production, and maintaining targeted trade measures against unfair imports. It estimates global aluminium demand will rise by around 80 per cent by 2050 and a stronger domestic supply chain will be critical to supporting the US manufacturing footprint.

India

India's aluminium industry remains divided over the future of aluminium scrap imports, with primary producers advocating tighter controls while secondary manufacturers push for duty relief. The Aluminium Association of India (AAI), representing primary aluminium producers, warned that the growing inflow of compromised quality scrap could undermine planned investments exceeding INR 3 trillion (USD 31.5 billion).

India currently imposes a 7.5 per cent Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on primary aluminium and 2.5 per cent on aluminium scrap.

However, according to the Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI), import duty on aluminium scrap should eventually be removed, since India largely imports processed scrap rather than unprocessed waste. The Aluminium Secondary Manufacturers Association (ASMA), hosting nearly 3,500 MSMEs, backed the opinion, as lower import costs would ease raw material expenses, which account for up to 80 per cent of downstream production costs.

AAI has further urged for immediate implementation of the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) norms for aluminium scrap, warning that India risks receiving poor-quality scrap. The association has proposed retaining the 2.5 per cent BCD until BIS standards and grade-wise HSN codes are notified, after which it recommends raising duties on Grade 3 to Grade 7 scrap to 7.5 per cent.

AAI argues that stricter quality standards are essential to protect manufacturing competitiveness, product quality and consumer safety. The move comes as India's secondary aluminium industry has expanded from 0.85 million tonnes in FY2015-16 to nearly 2.2 million tonnes in FY2025-26, accounting for around 35 per cent of domestic aluminium consumption. However, domestic end-of-life scrap generation currently satisfies only 15-20 per cent of industry requirements, leaving 80-85 per cent dependent on imports.

Aluminium scrap imports reached 2 million tonnes, resulting in a foreign exchange outgo of INR 402.03 billion (USD 4.22 billion). AAI also highlighted that recycled aluminium is critical to India's Net Zero 2070 roadmap.

According to NITI Aayog, recycled aluminium could account for around 45 per cent of India's aluminium demand by 2028, while the country's primary aluminium capacity is expected to nearly double to 9 million tonnes per annum by FY33 through investments planned by Vedanta, Hindalco and NALCO.

Unlock key insights from leading companies and experts across the aluminium ecosystem with our e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

Key takeaways:

At present, scrap prices in India from the aluminium tense to aluminium extrusion category range between INR 280,000 (USD 2,934.82) per tonne and INR 305,000 (USD 3,196.85) per tonne.

Additional charges to look out for include the 2.5 per cent import tax imposed on aluminium scrap by the Government of India and the 15 per cent export tax proposed by the European Commission to slow scrap leakage.

In case of the Indian import tax, if retained, would continue to add around INR 7,000 (USD 73.37) to INR 7,625 (USD 79.92) per tonne, with the price totalling around INR 28,7000 (USD 3,008.19) to INR 312,625 (USD 3,276.78) per tonne.

As of the proposed export tax, a 15 per cent duty would include another surcharge of INR 42,000 (USD 440.22) to INR 45,750 (USD 479.53) per tonne.

This would raise the pricing bar around INR 329,000 (USD 3,448.41) to INR 358,375 (USD 3,756.3) per tonne of aluminium scrap imported into India from the EU.

The figure would continue to gain a larger size as the other surcharges of Goods and Services Tax (GST) reduction on metal scrap from 18 per cent to 5 per cent, exemption of imported non-ferrous scrap from proposed Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) requirements, and the removal of the mandatory Pre-Shipment Inspection Certification (PSIC) system.

Upcoming policies to look out for include a review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with industry groups seeking to include aluminium scrap under tighter export regulations amid concerns over rising shipments of low-grade material.

The EU’s Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR), due to take effect in September, will restrict recyclable waste exports, including aluminium scrap, to non-OECD countries.

Meanwhile, existing EU policies continue to strengthen circularity. The Waste Framework Directive promotes resource efficiency and a circular economy, while the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) mandates recyclable packaging and Deposit Return Schemes (DRS).

The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) supports domestic supply chains and recycling investment. New vehicle circularity rules aim to improve aluminium recovery from end-of-life vehicles.

European Aluminium has also urged the EU to close the CBAM recycled aluminium loophole by recognising post-consumer scrap and adopting a single default carbon value for unwrought aluminium.

Potential peripheral impacts that industry stakeholders might need to consider include freight and shipping charges, insurance premiums, port handling and terminal charges, warehousing, storage, and demurrage fees and financing or working-capital costs, amongst others.

These are the most common ripple-effect costs because a higher import price usually raises the landed cost, slows clearance, and increases the amount of cash tied up in the shipment.

China Hongqiao expects higher first-half profit on stronger aluminium alloy prices

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 21:30:00 +0530

China Hongqiao Group expects its net profit for the first half of 2026 to increase by approximately 39 per cent compared with the same period last year, according to a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The company said the anticipated earnings growth is primarily driven by higher selling prices for its aluminium alloy products, which supported profitability during the six months ended 30 June 2026.

Separately, Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry expects its first-half net profit to increase by 69.72 per cent to 81.04 per cent year-on-year, reflecting continued strength in the aluminium market during the reporting period.

China Hongqiao is one of China's largest aluminium producers, with operations spanning alumina, aluminium and aluminium alloy products.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report – Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

EGA restarts alumina production at Al Taweelah refinery in Abu Dhabi

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 22:30:00 +0530

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has restarted alumina production at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery in Abu Dhabi, marking another step in restoring operations at the company's integrated aluminium production complex.

EGA said alumina production is expected to reach 50 per cent of the refinery's capacity within days. The company expects to have the technical capability to ramp up to full production by the end of 2026, although the pace of further increases will depend on supply chain conditions and the optimisation of its alumina sourcing strategy.

The company noted that the ramp-up of aluminium production at the adjacent Al Taweelah smelter is not dependent on the refinery reaching full operating capacity.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report – Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

In 2025, the Al Taweelah alumina refinery produced 2.4 million tonnes of alumina, supplying 46 per cent of EGA's alumina requirements. Alumina is the primary raw material used in aluminium smelting.

Commenting on the restart, Abdulnasser Bin Kalban, Chief Executive Officer of Emirates Global Aluminium, described the resumption of alumina production as another milestone in restoring the Al Taweelah site as one of the world's major aluminium production complexes. He added that the refinery team had enabled the restart to be completed safely and efficiently.

Production at the refinery was suspended on 28 March 2026 following Iranian attacks on Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi. The refinery resumed production of hydrate, the precursor to alumina, on 24 June, ahead of the restart of alumina production.

The Al Taweelah alumina refinery, which began operations in 2019, is located adjacent to the Al Taweelah aluminium smelter, with alumina transferred between the facilities through a conveyor belt system.

Participate in our upcoming e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

UMS and Renault Trucks mark decade of partnership supporting Guinea's bauxite industry

Sun, 12 Jul 2026 07:30:00 +0530

UMS United Mining Supply (UMS) and Renault Trucks have marked 10 years of partnership supporting mining logistics operations in Guinea, where a fleet of Renault K Trucks is used to transport bauxite from mining sites to port facilities.

The partnership, which began in 2016 with the support of local distributor TGH Plus, has grown over the past decade, with 600 Renault Trucks delivered to support UMS's mining and industrial logistics operations. Today, 350 Renault K Trucks are deployed across the company's bauxite transport activities in Guinea.

Operating in the Boké region, one of Guinea's principal bauxite mining areas, the trucks transport ore between extraction sites and export terminals. The fleet operates around the clock under demanding conditions, with each truck travelling more than 190,000 kilometres annually. Collectively, the 350 trucks cover more than 50 million kilometres every year.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report – Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Beyond supplying vehicles, Renault Trucks works with UMS to improve fleet performance through monthly analysis of telematics data to optimise fuel consumption and operating cycles. Operational feedback from mining sites has also contributed to vehicle improvements, with several modifications developed for UMS later incorporated into Renault Trucks' solutions for heavy-duty applications.

To maximise fleet availability, UMS operates integrated maintenance workshops staffed by more than 150 mechanics working in three shifts. Renault Trucks also supports the company in managing on-site spare parts inventories to reduce maintenance times and improve vehicle uptime.

The partnership also includes ongoing skills development, with Renault Trucks providing annual training programmes for UMS mechanics, drivers and instructors. Specialist trainers visit operating sites twice each year to provide guidance on safe and efficient driving practices while supporting continuous improvements in operational safety.

Founded in 2001 by Fadi Wazni, UMS provides integrated logistics services to the mining, industrial and oil sectors across Guinea and West Africa. The company operates a fleet of more than 500 trucks, holds ISO 9001 certification and states that approximately 98 per cent of its workforce consists of Guinean employees.

Participate in our upcoming e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

UK’s aluminium scrap requirement estimated to hit 6Mt by 2035 - here’s how the country plans to retain more scrap and curb leakage

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 13:00:00 +0530

The UK has an ambitious aluminium scrap equation to solve. Domestic industry is forecast to require as much as 6 million tonnes of aluminium scrap for recycling by 2035 to support the government’s projected 8 million tonnes of aluminium demand across sectors. Yet much of the metal needed to support that future is already flowing in the opposite direction.

The UK exports almost half the aluminium scrap it generates, while imports fill only 27 per cent of the resulting gap. The trend has continued into 2026, with scrap exports rising 9 per cent year on year to 217,611 tonnes during January–April, from 200,374 tonnes a year earlier.

This is where the UK’s recycling ambition meets a difficult market reality. Scrap is becoming increasingly important at home, but overseas buyers are competing for the same material.

The stakes extend well beyond recycling. Secondary aluminium is linked to packaging, automotive, defence, aerospace and construction. The UK uses more than 16 billion beverage cans annually and has an 81 per cent can recycling rate, while Novelis is investing another EUR 70 million to double used beverage can recycling capacity. JLR has introduced aluminium skin containing 85 per cent recycled content, UK manufacturers produce specialised components including EV battery casings, and Arconic reuses up to 71 per cent scrap in defence-critical production.

So, how much additional scrap would the UK need to secure for domestic recycling? Against this backdrop, a Make UK paper sets out two different pathways for future scrap availability.

Retention Option 1: 6Mt of scrap to meet 75% of demand through recycling

Retention Option 1 is the higher-recycling pathway. Under this scenario, recycling would meet 75 per cent of the UK’s projected 8 million tonnes of aluminium demand in growth sectors by 2035, requiring 6 million tonnes of scrap to be available for recycling.

Starting from 800,000 tonnes in 2026, scrap requirements would need to grow by around 25.1 per cent annually. The volume rises to 1 million tonnes in 2027, 1.96 million tonnes in 2030 and 3.08 million tonnes in 2032 before reaching 6 million tonnes in 2035.

Assuming imports remain at 18.75 per cent of total procurement, additional scrap retained from exports would need to increase from 163,112 tonnes in 2027 to 320,449 tonnes in 2030 and 504,114 tonnes in 2032.

The real pressure emerges in 2033. Additional retained scrap reaches 632,802 tonnes, equivalent to 101.4 per cent of the UK’s 624,000-tonne 2025 scrap export base. It then rises to 791,780 tonnes in 2034 and 950,198 tonnes in 2035, equivalent to 152.3 per cent of that export base.

This is the critical constraint in Option 1. From 2033, simply redirecting current export volumes into domestic recycling would no longer be enough. The excess requirement would need to be addressed through other domestic levers, including increased post-consumer scrap procurement linked to the anticipated Deposit Return Scheme and stronger UK routes to market capable of attracting more material.

Retention Option 2: 3.55Mt needed to maintain today’s 44% recycling contribution

Retention Option 2 follows a business-as-usual recycling pathway. Under this scenario, recycling continues to meet 44 per cent of aluminium demand in growth sectors in 2035, the same proportion identified by the paper as today’s level.

Even without increasing recycling’s share of demand, the UK would still require 3.55 million tonnes of scrap available for recycling by 2035.

Starting from 800,000 tonnes in 2026, scrap requirements would need to grow by around 18 per cent annually. The volume rises to 944,048 tonnes in 2027, 1.55 million tonnes in 2030 and 2.16 million tonnes in 2032 before reaching 3.55 million tonnes in 2035.

Assuming imports continue to account for 18.75 per cent of procurement, additional scrap retained from exports would need to rise from 117,039 tonnes in 2027 to 192,329 tonnes in 2030 and 267,826 tonnes in 2032.

By 2035, additional retained scrap reaches 440,115 tonnes, equivalent to 70.5 per cent of the 624,000 tonnes exported in 2025.

Unlike Option 1, the additional retention requirement remains below the current annual export base through 2035. However, it would still require the UK to redirect a substantial share of material currently leaving the country while maintaining import growth.

Delve deeper into the recycled aluminium and secondary aluminium market with our World Recycled ALuminium Market Analysis Industry forecast to 2032

Where is UK’s scrap going

The difficulty is that the UK is not starting from a balanced scrap market. Historical estimates in the white paper show that the country exported around 560,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2019, including 400,000 tonnes to non-EU markets, while retaining around 650,000 tonnes and importing 150,000 tonnes.

At least 800,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap was recycled that year, equivalent to around 44 per cent of current UK aluminium demand in growth sectors. Yet before exports and imports were considered, potential recycling based on domestically generated scrap stood at around 1.2 million tonnes.

Recent trade flows show that overseas pull remains strong. During January–April 2026, UK aluminium scrap exports increased 9 per cent year on year to 217,611 tonnes.

India remained the largest destination, importing 60,054 tonnes, although shipments edged down 1 per cent year on year. Hong Kong ranked second with 34,666 tonnes, down 4 per cent, while exports to China fell 15 per cent to 20,261 tonnes. Shipments to Germany also declined 8 per cent to 10,206 tonnes. However, these declines were outweighed by a sharp increase in US buying.

UK aluminium scrap exports to the United States surged 174 per cent to 17,230 tonnes, from 6,285 tonnes a year earlier. The increase followed a shift in the US trade environment, where primary aluminium imports face a 50 per cent tariff while scrap remains exempt, strengthening demand for imported secondary raw material. Thailand also increased purchases by 6 per cent to 11,546 tonnes.

Together, India, Hong Kong, China, the US, Thailand and Germany received about 154,000 tonnes, equivalent to roughly 71 per cent of total UK aluminium scrap exports during the four-month period.

The destination mix shows why retention could become harder. UK scrap is being pulled across Asia, North America and Europe just as both 2035 pathways require substantially greater domestic availability.

What UK can do to retain scrap and curb leakage

The UK’s most concrete route to improving domestic scrap recovery is the Deposit Return Scheme, which could increase collection of high-quality used beverage cans. With more than 16 billion cans used annually, stronger post-consumer recovery could become particularly important under Option 1, where current export volumes alone are insufficient from 2033.

Beyond this, the Make UK white paper proposes “smart scrap retention” measures focused on strategic alloys rather than blanket export restrictions. Recommendations include a UK-market-first mechanism to give domestic processors earlier visibility of priority scrap, clearer HS codes to identify the alloy and quality of exports, and stronger traceability of strategically valuable material.

The paper also calls for investment support for advanced sorting, de-coating, shredding and alloy separation, alongside stronger collection standards and enforcement. The aim is to make domestic processing more competitive where overseas buyers attract UK scrap through higher prices or lower pre-sorting requirements.

At the same time, the paper argues that the UK should seek trusted-partner treatment with the EU to preserve access to specialised European scrap grades. In 2024, the UK exported around 107,000 tonnes of scrap to Europe and imported 73,000 tonnes, while some UK processors rely on EU material for around 31 per cent of input.

The objective is not to stop all exports, but to retain more strategically useful scrap while maintaining access to complementary grades required by UK processors.

Explore the position of aluminium at the intersection of sustainability and strategy in Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium's Dual Commitment

What could UK learn from EU’s scrap retention strategy?

The European Commission views aluminium scrap retention as important to decarbonisation and strategic autonomy and is preparing measures to curb scrap leakage, with possible action in Q2 2026.

Reported options include export duties, export licensing, mandatory recycled-content targets and tighter surveillance of trade flows.

For the UK, the EU approach could offer a possible direction. A formal monitoring system could track export destinations and vulnerable scrap grades, while targeted retention tools could focus on high-value or strategic alloys when domestic processors face shortages.

Greater investment in collection, sorting and pre-processing infrastructure, backed by stronger enforcement and quality standards, could also help keep more UK-generated scrap available for domestic recycling rather than allowing it to leave as mixed or lower-value material.

Analysis

Retention alone will not be enough to deliver 6 million tonnes of scrap availability by 2035. Under Option 1, the additional retention requirement overtakes the UK’s entire 2025 export base from 2033, while Option 2 stays within that pool but still requires 440,115 tonnes by 2035.

The challenge, therefore, goes beyond keeping more scrap at home: the UK must expand recovery, strengthen domestic processing and build a much larger scrap ecosystem capable of supporting an aluminium market that could reach 8 million tonnes by 2035.

For an in-depth understanding of the UK’s aluminium recycling landscape, download Make UK’s white paper, Strategic Aluminium Scrap, here

Cost support and off-season pressure coexist, secondary aluminium prices continue to move sideways

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0530

Aluminium scrap:

This week, the aluminium scrap market continued to see a tug-of-war between cost-supported floors and sluggish off-season demand, with prices moving sideways. The SMM A00 spot aluminium price closed at around RMB 22,950 per tonne on July 9. The decline in aluminium scrap was consistently smaller than that in primary aluminium, maintaining its downside resilience. Foshan shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) rose RMB 250 per tonne W-o-W.

On the price spread side, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan stood at RMB 2,011 per tonne on July 9, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was at RMB 697 per tonne, stabilising slightly from their historically low levels last week but still holding at extremely low levels.

The tightening enforcement of the reverse invoicing policy provided a floor, leaving the logic that aluminium scrap is more likely to rise than fall intact. Supply-side constraints continued to intensify. The impact of the reverse invoicing policy deepened further, with reports emerging that Shandong suspended reverse invoicing from July. Small and medium-sized scrap utilisation enterprises in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, and other regions saw spreading production cuts and suspensions, making compliant, invoiced aluminium scrap increasingly scarce.

On the import front, the earlier price spread inversion between Chinese and overseas markets led to a scarcity of high-quality overseas cargoes. With a 1-3 month shipping lag, port arrivals from June to August stayed low. Meanwhile, the UAE's aluminium scrap export ban and the EU's tariff hike further tightened overseas aluminium scrap supply.

Next week, the aluminium scrap market is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range, constrained by demand and supported by costs. Mainstream transaction prices for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) are expected to centre around 19,900-20,500 per tonne.

The pullback in spot primary aluminium prices limited the room for further narrowing of price spreads. The cost advantage of aluminium scrap over primary aluminium is unlikely to disappear in the short term, and demand-side price support for aluminium scrap remains.

Secondary aluminium alloy:

This week, SMM ADC12 prices continued to drift higher, accumulating a RMB 100 per tonne W-o-W increase to RMB 24,100 per tonne. On the cost side, tight tax invoices and insufficient compliant aluminium scrap supply kept enterprise procurement costs high, squeezing profit margins and strengthening producers' willingness to hold prices firm.

Market attention on substituting aluminium scrap with primary aluminium to produce ADC12 grew recently, but this route lacked overall economic viability. It was more of a temporary workaround for enterprises facing invoice shortages rather than a cost-driven proactive substitution. This week, primary aluminium prices strengthened W-o-W, further narrowing the substitution space, and the substitution scale did not expand significantly. Demand-side performance remained weak, with July's traditional off-season characteristics becoming more evident. Downstream enterprises faced insufficient new orders, and end-user restocking willingness was low, keeping overall market transactions sluggish.

After raising offer prices early in the week, follow-through on higher-priced deals weakened, and late in the week, some enterprises reported M-o-M weakening in orders. Insufficient demand constrained room for further price adjustments and became the primary factor suppressing upward price momentum.

The supply side continued to contract, but marginal changes warranted attention. This week, the operating rate of secondary aluminium industry leaders fell 0.4 percentage points W-o-W to 51.4 per cent, mainly due to tax invoice issues and the deepening off-season, as production cuts and suspensions continued. Inventory-wise, China's social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots dropped 9,000 tonnes W-o-W to 35,300 tonnes, marking the sixth consecutive week of destocking.

This was mainly due to low operating rates limiting new arrivals into inventory, while a suitable spot-futures price spread spurred aggressive selling by spot traders, accelerating the destocking pace. On the import front, overseas ADC12 offer prices continued to fall to USD 3,100- USD 3,200per tonne, with some deals reportedly nearing USD 3,000per tonne.

The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to normalise. If overseas offer prices keep pulling back, the import profit window could gradually open, at which point increasing import resources would supplement China's tight supply to some extent. Looking ahead, ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways within a range with a steady centre.

In the short term, with tight aluminium scrap, unresolved tax invoice issues, and low operating rates, cost support remains in play and downside room is limited. However, July's off-season demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and expectations of rising imports add overhead pressure. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between cost-supported floors and demand-constrained ceilings, short-term ADC12 prices are projected to trade within a range of RMB 23,700–24,300 per tonne.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Toyo Printing Inks and Toyo Ink Europe met with industry professionals at METPACK 2026!

Sun, 12 Jul 2026 07:00:00 +0530

Toyo Printing Inks participated in METPACK 2026, one of the leading international trade fairs for the metal packaging industry, held in Essen, Germany, from May 5–8.

During the exhibition, Toyo Printing Inks introduced its high-performance coating and ink solutions developed specifically for the metal packaging industry to international industry professionals. The company showcased its product portfolio centred on BPA-NI internal coating technologies, which attracted considerable attention from visitors.

In addition to its BPANI Gold Lacquer, BPA-NI Pigmented Lacquer and BPA-NI Clear Lacquer product groups, the company's Conventional and UV Metal Packaging Inks also generated significant interest. Throughout the event, Toyo Printing Inks' expert teams addressed technical inquiries and exchanged valuable insights with visitors and industry stakeholders.

Throughout the exhibition, Toyo Printing Inks shared a stand with Toyo Ink Europe, presenting its strengthened manufacturing infrastructure supported by its new production facility, its commitment to sustainable manufacturing, and its solutions developed in compliance with European regulations to international visitors.

Products designed to meet stringent food safety, performance, and application quality requirements were particularly well received by manufacturers operating in the food, beverage, and industrial packaging sectors.

For Toyo Printing Inks, METPACK 2026 served as an important platform for strengthening international partnerships, exploring emerging industry trends, and reinforcing the company's position in the global market. Building on the valuable feedback and business connections established during the exhibition, the company will continue shaping its future-oriented initiatives and strategic direction.

The global aluminium packaging market is witnessing a transformative surge. Click on ‘ALuminium in Packaging: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics’ report to know more.

Note: This article has been shared by artience group and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

ASI certifies Yunnan Hongyan New Materials Co., Ltd. & Yunnan Zhilv New Materials Co., Ltd. against Performance Standard V3.1

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 03:30:00 +0530

Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI) announced that Yunnan Hongyan New Materials Co., Ltd. & Yunnan Zhilv New Materials Co., Ltd. have been certified against the ASI Performance Standard V3.1 (2023).

The facilities specialise in the production of aluminium alloy materials for applications including automotive body panels, battery foil and can lid materials, using integrated processes encompassing raw material melting, alloying, casting and hot rolling to produce aluminium alloy flat ingots, sheet and strip products, with an annual production capacity of approximately 250,000 tonnes of flat ingots and 300,000 tonnes of sheet and strip products.

The ASI Certification program was developed through an extensive multi-stakeholder consultation process and is the only comprehensive voluntary sustainability standard initiative for the aluminium value chain. The ASI Performance Standard V3 and ASI CoC Standard V2 were launched in May 2022 following a multi-year revision process.

The ASI Performance Standard V3 defines 11 principles and 62 criteria under three sustainability pillars – Environment, Social, and Governance – with the aim to address pressing sustainability issues in the aluminium value chain, such as biodiversity, Indigenous Peoples rights, circularity, and greenhouse gas emissions.

The 2022 Standards and related documents underwent a minor update in 2023, accounting for editorial changes, correction of minor errors and for general clarification, culminating in the release of Performance Standard V3.1 (2023) and Chain of Custody Standard V2.1 (2023).

The independent, third-party audit of Yunnan Hongyan New Materials Co., Ltd. & Yunnan Zhilv New Materials Co., Ltd. was carried out by DNV Business Assurance Services UK Ltd. A full listing of audit findings is available in the summary audit reports, linked below.

Three minor non-conformances were identified during the audit under the Criteria 4.1a Environmental Life Cycle Assessment, 5.1a-b Disclosure of GHG Emissions and Energy Use and 6.1a-f Emissions to Air. Yunnan Hongyan New Materials Co., Ltd. & Yunnan Zhilv New Materials Co., Ltd. will be implementing corrective actions, to be verified in a follow-up audit.

Discover how leading aluminium companies are driving the next phase of the sustainability transition from our e-Magazine, “Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium’s Dual Commitment.”

Note: This article has been taken from ASI and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Albarrie to showcase technical fabrics for aluminium extrusion at Aluminum Düsseldorf 2026

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 22:30:00 +0530

Albarrie, a manufacturer of nonwoven technical fabrics, will participate in Aluminum Düsseldorf 2026, which will be held in Düsseldorf, Germany, from October 6 to 8, 2026. The company will exhibit its products for the aluminium extrusion industry.

Nonwoven technical fabrics are used in aluminium extrusion plants to handle hot aluminium profiles during production. They protect the surface of aluminium profiles as they move through the production line and are also used in filtration and environmental control systems at extrusion facilities.

Albarrie manufactures nonwoven technical fabrics for industrial applications. In the aluminium extrusion industry, the company supplies heat felts, roller covers, separator belts, filter bags and containment products used during production.

Freshly extruded aluminium profiles are soft and can be scratched or marked while moving along run-out tables and conveyor systems. Heat felts are placed on these surfaces to prevent damage. Albarrie's Defender™ Series heat felts replace traditional materials such as graphite and wood used on extrusion lines.

The company also manufactures roller covers and sleeves for conveyor systems that carry hot aluminium away from the extrusion press. It produces separator rollers and belts used to separate aluminium profiles during the cooling process. Albarrie also supplies baghouse filter bags and secondary containment products used to control dust and meet environmental requirements at extrusion plants.

To gain insights into the the current aluminium extrusions market, explore our report The World of Aluminium Extrusions – Industry Forecast to 2032

According to the company, a major requirement in aluminium extrusion is the ability to handle materials that withstand temperatures above 200°C. The technical fabrics are made for these operating conditions and reduce scratches and marks on aluminium profiles, helping to lower scrap generation.

Albarrie develops and manufactures custom nonwoven technical fabrics for industrial use. The company works with manufacturers to produce fabrics for different industrial applications.

The company was established in 1981. It manufactures nonwoven technical fabrics at its North American facilities. Its products are used in industrial air filtration, oil spill containment and other industrial processes, in addition to aluminium extrusion.

Wychavon launches campaign to increase aluminium foil recycling

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 17:30:00 +0530

Wychavon District Council has launched a new campaign in partnership with Alupro to encourage residents to recycle more aluminium foil and other aluminium packaging through its kerbside recycling scheme.

The initiative, titled "Foil in Love with Recycling", follows the introduction of kerbside collection for aluminium foil and aims to improve public understanding of best recycling practices, address common misconceptions and increase aluminium collection rates across the district.

As part of the campaign, residents are being advised to separate used aluminium trays and cooking foil from other waste, scrunch the foil into a ball and place it in their green recycling bins. The awareness programme includes social media campaigns, advertisements at petrol stations, on waste collection vehicles and at railway stations.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report – Aluminum Foil Market Report Forecast Till 2035

Emma Stokes, Wychavon's Executive Board Member for Resources, Investment and Innovation, said the campaign is intended to help recover more valuable aluminium that might otherwise be discarded with general waste. She also encouraged residents to recycle other aluminium products, including empty aerosol cans and beverage cans, which are often overlooked.

According to the council, households across the Wychavon District use more than 11 million aluminium cooking trays each year. Supported by the introduction of the UK's Simpler Recycling regulations and the inclusion of aluminium foil in comingled kerbside collections, the council aims to reduce the amount of aluminium packaging sent to landfill while improving local recycling rates.

Commenting on the initiative, Tom Giddings, Executive Director of Alupro, said aluminium can be recycled repeatedly without losing its properties. He added that around 30 per cent of all aluminium produced in the UK is not recycled, highlighting the need for greater public awareness and participation in recycling programmes.

Explore our e-magazine Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium's Dual Commitment for the latest industry insights and trends.

H+H Herrmann + Hieber provides material handling solutions for heavy-load industries

Sun, 12 Jul 2026 05:30:00 +0530

H+H Herrmann + Hieber is a Germany-based engineering company specialising in the design, manufacture and installation of application-specific material handling and conveyor systems for heavy industrial operations. With over 60 years of experience, the company has implemented more than 1,200 material flow projects in a variety of industries.

The company’s core area of activity is the planning and implementation of conveyor systems for payloads of between 1000 kg and 30,000 kg. In addition to full turnkey installations, H+H provides system-tested components for specific material handling requirements.

The company’s services cover the entire project lifecycle, from material flow analysis and engineering design to equipment manufacture, installation, automation, commissioning and after sales support. The company also develops integrated control systems incorporating conveyor controls, material flow management, warehouse management and transport control software.

H+H has established a strong presence in the aluminium extrusion industry, where it specialises in conveying long aluminium profiles and is regarded as a leading supplier of material handling systems for extrusion plants. The company also serves aluminium strip and foil manufacturers, alongside customers in the steel, plastics, automotive, mechanical engineering, electrical, chemical, food processing, construction, paper processing and wood industries.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report – Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Its product portfolio includes conveyor solutions for transporting, storing, buffering, stacking and dispatching heavy products such as pallets, coils, cassettes for long products, section racks, special containers and MDF or chipboard panel stacks. The systems incorporate technologies including roller conveyors, chain conveyors, transfer trolleys, automatic cranes, vertical conveyors, stacking and destacking equipment, rotary devices, coil rotators and inspection systems for weight and dimensional verification.

The company also designs heavy-load warehouses, storage systems for long products, order-picking towers and aluminium profile packaging equipment as part of integrated logistics installations.

According to H+H, the value of completed conveyor system projects has ranged from approximately EUR 0.1 million (USD 114,000) to EUR 5.5 million (USD 6.28 million), with most installations valued between EUR 0.5 million (USD 0.57 million) and EUR 3.5 million (USD 4.01 million).

In addition to new installations, the company undertakes the modernisation and expansion of existing logistics systems, including equipment originally supplied by other manufacturers. These projects are designed to minimise production interruptions while adapting facilities to changing operational requirements.

H+H also provides installation, maintenance and lifecycle support through experienced service teams, offering replacement parts, plant maintenance and a 24/7 technical support hotline.

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From 4.5-micron aluminium foil to mono-material packs: Engineering packaging’s shift

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:50:00 +0530

As packaging manufacturers face growing pressure to reconcile performance, recyclability and supply security, integrated manufacturing is emerging as a strategic advantage. Jupiter Group is building across the value chain, spanning aluminium rolling and ultra-thin foil to inks, engraving and flexible packaging. In this conversation with AL Circle, Kunal Bajaj discusses mono-material innovation, precision manufacturing, decarbonisation, backward integration and how India can scale globally competitive packaging solutions without compromising environmental accountability or operational resilience.

Bajaj is a second-generation entrepreneur and Promoter at Jupiter Group, where he oversees a diversified manufacturing portfolio spanning flexible packaging, aluminium foils, flat-rolled aluminium products, and critical packaging inputs. He plays a central role in driving the Group’s strategic growth, operational integration, and long-term value creation across its manufacturing ecosystem.

AL Circle: Multi-layer laminates have long been the shelf-life benchmark, but a recycling headache. How is Jupiter Laminators turning them into mono-material structures without compromising barrier performance for FMCG and pharma brands?

Kunal Bajaj: We have always believed that performance and sustainability are not a trade-off, since they are an engineering challenge and one that we are committed to solving. At Jupiter Laminators, we have been developing mono-material solutions across PP/PP, MDOPE/PE, and rPET constructions. Each operates on single-polymer logic, meaning it can enter the recycling stream as a single material rather than as an incompatible stack. We are also actively working with brand owners to reduce ink GSM and overall packaging thickness, reducing both plastic content and VOC emissions in the process.

Barrier performance remains non-negotiable. Our 2,450 mm wide web Buhler metalliser with Adhesion Plus technology allows us to achieve very high optical density metallised film, delivering barrier properties that previously required multi-layer structures, now within a mono-material format.

The transition requires more engineering, not less. Our R&D team works alongside brand owners through every stage - substrate selection, coating, seal integrity, shelf-life validation. The goal is simple: a recyclable structure that performs as well as what it replaces. We are not there on every application yet, but the progress is real, and the direction is clear.

AL Circle: As recyclable packaging goes beyond the substrate with inks, adhesives and cylinder engraving also in play — how do Inkofix and EngravePlus strengthen your R&D speed and mono-material innovation?

Kunal Bajaj: Recyclability isn't just about the substrate. The ink, adhesive, and gravure cylinder all affect whether a mono-material structure actually qualifies at the end-of-life.

The R&D speed advantage comes from having all of this under one roof. At most converters, film, ink, and adhesive development happen in separate cycles - you iterate, realign, requalify and that is time-consuming. With Inkofix inside the group, our film and ink teams work together from day one. The formulations are already matched to substrates. There is no vendor loop, no waiting on external qualification.

EngravePlus adds precision at the print stage. Mono-material films are thinner and less dimensionally stable than multilayer structures. If the cylinder isn't engraved to exactly match those properties, you compensate at the press with more ink, slower speeds, and more chemistry. We avoid that by designing the cylinder alongside the construction from the start.

The result: when we develop a new mono-material structure, every component film, ink, adhesive, cylinder is qualified in parallel, not in sequence. That is where the speed comes from.

AL Circle: JUPALCO's 120,000 MTPA continuous casting operation is a heavy industrial setup. What were the biggest challenges in shifting it to LPG and solar power, and what ROI does that transition deliver?

Kunal Bajaj: Transitioning a high-throughput continuous casting operation isn't a fuel swap — it requires re-engineering combustion systems to match LPG's different burn characteristics while maintaining the precise thermal profiles that aluminium metallurgy demands. Alongside this, integrating captive solar into a 24/7 baseload operation requires careful energy management to ensure zero process disruption.

The returns are structural, not just operational. LPG delivers cleaner combustion, lower emissions intensity, and reduced compliance exposure. With ~60 per cent renewable energy targeted by 2030, we are progressively decarbonising our Scope 2 profile. In export markets where CBAM, ASI certification, and supply chain ESG disclosures are becoming standard, this positions Jupalco as a verifiably responsible source and that has real commercial value. However current war situation has increased the LPG price but we thrive

AL Circle: With LSKB Aluminium Foils' 4.5-micron foil now among the thinnest globally, how does extreme precision rolling cut material use and lower Scope 3 emissions for brand owners?

Kunal Bajaj: The aluminium sustainability story is often misread. Primary production is energy-intensive — that is true. But aluminium is infinitely recyclable at a fraction of that energy cost, and at 4.5 microns you are delivering the same barrier function with significantly less material per square metre. At 4.5 microns, less material goes into each square metre of foil. For brand owners tracking Scope 3 emissions across their packaging supply chain is a relevant input to their carbon accounting.

LSKB's ASI Performance Standard V3 (2022) certification, independently verified by CETIZION Verifica, gives brand owners an auditable document covering environment, social, and governance across 11 principles and 62 criteria. Production scrap is recycled back through JUPALCO into fresh foil stock — waste re-enters the value chain rather than leaving as landfill.

AL Circle: As a second-generation entrepreneur, how do you balance the speed of Make in India growth with the need for strict environmental self-regulation?

Kunal Bajaj: The second-generation perspective matters here in a specific way. My father, Mr Sandeep Bajaj, built this group by converting machines in 2003. What I have inherited is not just capacity; it is a reputation, a customer base, and relationships that took decades to earn. That foundation is what drives us to stay ahead of environmental standards, not just meet them. The FMCG and pharma brands we serve are running supplier audits more rigorously than regulatory requirements. Every audit we clear strengthens the relationship and deepens the account. Sustainability compliance has become a commercial differentiator, and we are positioned for it.

"The road to victory is paved by bold, determined action. Make in India is a growth opportunity but it is also an opportunity to define what Indian manufacturing looks like on the world stage. We want that standard to be high."

JUPALCO is perhaps the clearest expression of that thinking. Building a fully integrated aluminium rolling facility in India from casting to flat-rolling is a significant commitment to domestic manufacturing. It is our strongest statement on Make in India: that world-class materials capability can and should be built here, serving Indian industry and reducing import dependence.

As per me, self-regulation means not waiting for a rule to be written before you act. JUPALCO's alignment with BRSR, GRI, and SBTi frameworks was not mandated. We chose those frameworks because they are the language our global customers speak. The CBAM preparation building manufacturing systems that can demonstrate verified embedded emissions was not a response to a government directive. It was a forward-looking market decision.

Make in India is a real opportunity since India's packaging industry is growing fast. Jupiter Group's backward integration is our answer to that growth: aluminium, cylinders, inks, adhesives, flexible packaging — all under one roof, all in India. What that gives our customers is not just competitive pricing — it is the same quality, the same process controls, the same compliance standards on every order. No weak links in the chain. When an international partner works with us, they are not compromising on standards to source from India they are getting a supply chain built to last.

AL Circle: With backward integration at the core of Jupiter Group's model, how will this structure shield clients from raw material volatility and make sustainable packaging viable at scale over the next 3 to 5 years?

Kunal Bajaj: Flexible packaging is a demand-driven business. Brand owners need speed, consistency, and cost predictability all three, not a trade-off between them. Backward integration is how Jupiter Group delivers that without passing supply chain stress to the customer.

When inks, adhesives, cylinders, films, and laminates are all developed and sourced within the same ecosystem, the quality conversation happens internally before it reaches the customer. Reformulations, substrate changes, barrier upgrades - these are resolved at the R&D table, not on the production floor during a live order. That is what a genuinely integrated flexible packaging operation looks like in practice.

The aluminium manufacturing capability through LSKB and JUPALCO adds a further layer of stability that most flexible packaging companies simply cannot offer. Foil stock, ultra-thin gauges, semi-rigid containers: these critical inputs flow from within the group, rather than from an exposed spot market. When global aluminium availability tightens or prices shift, our customers are insulated from that noise.

The result is supply assurance matched to projected demand supporting price stability. Reliable availability of materials, consistent quality at every stage, and a sustainability chain recycled input, certified processes, verified credentials that holds its integrity from raw material to finished pack.For brand owners, that translates simply to: fewer escalations, fewer surprises, and a packaging partner whose answer to disruption is structure rather than apology.

Lightweighting the future: How material innovation is reshaping automotive manufacturing mobility

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:33:00 +0530

India’s automotive industry is coming into a phase in which vehicles are expected to provide more while consuming less. Consumers want a better range, greater safety, powerful performance and more features, but they also expect vehicles to remain affordable and reasonable.

This creates a difficult engineering challenge. Every additional battery module, sensor, safety element or electronic system adds weight. A heavier vehicle requires more energy to move, reducing efficiency and increasing operating costs. In electric vehicles, it may also require a larger battery, which further increases both weight and price.

For India, lightweighting is therefore not simply a design trend. It is a significant path to making mobility more efficient, affordable and sustainable.

India produced more than 3.47 crore passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three-wheelers, two-wheelers and quadricycles during FY2025-26. The automotive sector contributes around 6 per cent to the country’s GDP and about 35 per cent to manufacturing GDP. Even a modest improvement in the material and energy efficiency of each vehicle can build a significant impact at this scale.

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India cannot solve efficiency only through larger batteries

The weight challenge becomes even more important in electric mobility, particularly for two-wheelers and three-wheelers used for daily commercial operations. For these users, range, charging time and payload capacity directly affect earnings.

The usual response to range concerns is to add a larger battery. But a bigger batter also adds cost and weight, making the vehicle less efficient and requiring stronger components.

A more practical solution is to reduce the energy needed to move the vehicle. By using lighter materials and smarter vehicle design, manufacturers can improve range without simply increasing battery size.

A lighter EV can travel farther on the same charge, carry more load and reduce operating costs. It may also achieve the required range with a smaller battery, helping bring down the vehicle’s overall price. For India, lightweighting can therefore play an important role in making electric mobility more affordable and commercially viable.

The answer Is not to replace every steel component

Lightweighting is often reduced to a simple argument between steel, aluminium and composites. In practice, no single material can meet every automotive requirement.

Advanced high-strength steel can provide structural strength with thinner sections. Aluminium can reduce weight in battery enclosures, wheels, chassis parts and body panels. Engineered polymers can replace heavier components in selected non-structural applications. Composites can deliver high strength-to-weight performance, although their cost and recyclability remain concerns for mass-market vehicles. India needs a mixed-material approach in which every component uses the material best suited to its function.

This is particularly important because India is not a market where cost can be treated as a secondary consideration. Materials that work in premium global vehicles may not be commercially viable for an Indian two-wheeler, three-wheeler or entry-level passenger car. The right question is not which material is the lightest. It is which material delivers the required safety, durability, cost and recyclability at the lowest possible weight.

Local innovation will decide affordability

India’s INR 25,938 crore Production Linked Incentive scheme for automobiles and auto components is intended to support the domestic manufacturing of advanced automotive technology products. Material innovation should become an important part of this localisation effort.

India needs stronger domestic capabilities in high-strength automotive steel, aluminium alloys, engineering polymers, sustainable composites, material testing and advanced manufacturing. Greater localisation can reduce exposure to global supply disruptions while allowing materials to be developed for Indian road, weather and load conditions.

Indian vehicles face challenges that differ from those in many developed markets. They must operate under high temperatures, variable road conditions, heavy loads and demanding commercial-use cycles. Imported material solutions cannot simply be adopted without local validation.

Lightweighting must therefore be supported by Indian research institutions, testing centres, start-ups and manufacturers working together on commercially practical solutions.

For forward-thinking aluminium market insights amidst supply chain and price challenges, read "ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026"

Safety and circularity must remain non-negotiable

Lighter should never mean weaker.

Vehicle security depends on structural method, controlled energy absorption and the behaviour of materials during a collision. New materials must experience rigorous crash, thermal, fatigue and environmental testing before they are deployed at scale.

The industry must also consider what happens after the vehicle achieves the end of its useful life. A mixed material vehicle may be lighter during the procedure but harder to dismantle and recycle. Manufacturers should design components for easier separation, clearly identify polymer grades and improve the use of recycled aluminium and steel wherever performance standards permit.

A competitiveness strategy for Indian manufacturing

India’s automotive industry cannot rely only on electrification to meet its future efficiency and sustainability goals. It must also improve how intelligently vehicles use materials.

Lightweighting can help extend EV range, improve payload capacity, reduce energy consumption and lower lifecycle emissions. Done correctly, it can also reduce dependence on larger batteries and expensive imported materials. The opportunity is not to build the lightest vehicle at any cost. It is to build the most efficient vehicle at price Indian customers and commercial operators can afford.

For India, material innovation is more than an engineering priority. It is a pathway to more competitive manufacturing, accessible electric mobility and a stronger domestic automotive ecosystem.

Note: This article has been shared By Bharath Krishna Rao, CEO & Co - Founder, Emobi and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

China aluminium market likely to shift from surplus to deficit through 2H26

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:10:00 +0530

When SHFE aluminium traded in a wide range with the average price in the first half of 2026 edging higher year-on-year, the market performance was weaker relative to LME. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminium supply rose 3 per cent year-on-year, while weak domestic demand was partially offset by a 7.4 per cent increase in aluminium extrusions exports, resulting in a surplus of approximately 514,000 tonnes for the first half.

Looking ahead to the second half, demand is expected to recover as aluminium consumption in photovoltaics, energy storage, and automotive sectors improves marginally. The full-year balance is projected to shift to a deficit of around 50,000 tonnes, pointing to a gradual improvement in fundamentals.

This image has been taken from Mysteel official website

H1 2026 overview

In the first half of 2026, SHFE aluminium traded in a wide range with the average price edging higher year-on-year, but the market performance was weaker relative to LME.

Early in the year, optimistic expectations of global macro liquidity lent some support to SHFE aluminium. In mid-March, escalating Middle East tensions disrupted some local aluminium smelting capacity, and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened raw material supply, triggering supply concerns. LME aluminium rose sharply, pulling SHFE prices higher.

Domestic fundamentals, however, remained relatively weak. Aluminium supply continued to grow, while demand from key sectors such as photovoltaics and construction fell short, keeping traders' inventories elevated. In addition, sustained inflows of Russian primary aluminium added further supply pressure, limiting SHFE upside and widening the LME-SHFE price spread.

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By June, prices retreated from their highs as Middle East risk premiums faded, and overseas supply recovery expectations strengthened. Furthermore, macro factors, including shifts in Fed rate-cut expectations and tariff policy uncertainty, weighed on the market sentiment. Overall, aluminium price movements in the first half were shaped by the interwind of macro policy expectations and geopolitical developments. Overseas supply disruptions provided phased support, while weak domestic fundamentals capped SHFE aluminium performance.

On the supply side, Mysteel's survey showed that, as of end-June, China's installed aluminium capacity stood at 46.10 million tonnes per year (+1.23 per cent Y-o-Y), with operating capacity at 45.31 million tonnes per year (+0.22 per cent M-o-M, +2.90 per cent Y-o-Y). And the production through the first half totalled around 22.44 million tonnes, up 3.0 per cent Y-o-Y. Domestic aluminium consumption in H1 is estimated at 23.18 million tonnes (+0.52 per cent Y-o-Y). After stripping out extrusion exports, domestic demand came in at 20.18 million tonnes (-0.6 per cent Y-o-Y). The widening SHFE-LME price spread provided a tailwind for extrusion exports, partially counterbalancing softness in the domestic market.

Domestically, with real estate and photovoltaic sectors underperforming, the construction and industrial aluminium demand performed poorly. In contrast, energy storage continued to grow strongly, becoming an important driver of aluminium consumption. As traditional sectors' share declines and emerging applications gain weight, the demand structure is undergoing a fundamental shift, weakening traditional seasonal patterns.

In summary, Mysteel estimates a theoretical aluminium surplus of 1.206 million tonnes in Q1, a deficit of 692,000 tonnes in Q2, and a net surplus of 514,000 tonnes for H1 as a whole.

H2 2026 outlook

With most new capacity and restarts concentrated in the first half, and the capacity ceiling policy remaining a rigid constraint, capacity changes in the second half will be primarily replacement-driven. Nevertheless, the industry operating rates are expected to remain high, and the full-year aluminium production is estimated at 45.40 million tonnes, up around 2.3 per cent Y-o-Y.

Domestic primary aluminium demand is expected to recover notably in H2.

While construction and real estate remain a drag, other sectors are showing signs of improvement. Automotive aluminium demand is likely to rise, supported by promotional policies, new model launches, and robust EV exports. Photovoltaic aluminium demand is expected to improve as project bidding and module output pick up.

Energy storage continues to be the most dynamic segment, with global installations and battery cell shipments growing rapidly. Leading producers are already running near full capacity, and demand for aluminium in this segment still has room to expand.

Exports of extrusion and finished aluminium products are expected to remain strong, though growth may moderate as SHFE-LME price spreads narrow. More importantly, with downstream inventories already low, any further price correction in H2 could trigger restocking, boosting apparent consumption.

Together with resilient emerging demand, export strength, and potential restocking, total demand in H2 is expected to improve marginally from the first half. Overall, with supply broadly stable and demand improving, the full-year balance is expected to shift to a deficit of around 50,000 tonnes.

The global aluminium casting usage is expected to reach 24.2 million tonnes in 2026. To learn about the future market trends, prebook our upcoming report “Global Aluminium Casting Market 2026-2032”

Overseas, despite accelerated new capacity and Middle Eastern restarts, supply is expected to remain tight in the near term, providing support to global aluminium prices. That said, aluminium prices remain heavily influenced by macro factors, and fundamentals alone may not fully translate into price strength in the near term.

Under a bearish macro environment, prices could stay under pressure; if macro risks ease, a recovery is likely. For H2 2026, SHFE aluminium is expected to trade in a range of RMB 21,000-25,000 per tonne, with macro policy-driven volatility as a key risk to monitor.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel

Middle East conflict pushes up risk premium, aluminium ingot destocking supports aluminium price

Sun, 12 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0530

Macro perspective

The US-Iran situation escalated rapidly, as the US reinstated comprehensive oil sanctions on Iran, terminated the relevant memorandum of understanding, and launched strikes on over a hundred Iranian military facilities. Iran immediately retaliated, causing a sharp rise in geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East.

Fundamentals

Markets outside China, the resumption of aluminium production and the release of new capacity continued overseas, gradually materialising global supply growth. Long-term expectations of a shift from tight to loose in the global aluminium market kept building, significantly suppressing the upside room for spot aluminium premiums abroad and exerting medium and long-term pressure on LME aluminium prices. Meanwhile, expectations of a persistently strong US dollar further constrained the upside for aluminium prices.

Domestic market, inventory side, China's aluminium ingot inventory continued destocking. According to SMM data, as of July 9, social inventory of aluminium ingots in China stood at 1.078 million tonnes, down by 52,000 tonnes W-o-W, maintaining a pullback trend and providing support for aluminium prices.

Spread side, the SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio continued to recover, with the ratio rebounding to 7.36 this Thursday, up from 7.28 W-o-W. Boosted by rising aluminium billet processing fees, the production enthusiasm of Chinese enterprises improved the proportion of liquid aluminium climbed steadily, and casting ingot volumes contracted.

Meanwhile, downstream substitution demand emerged, with alloy plants and extrusion plants switching to aluminium ingots to replace aluminium scrap and aluminium billet, driving rigid demand for aluminium ingots higher and suggesting the destocking pace may continue.

Overall assessment

Overall, Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up risk premiums, along with continued destocking of China's aluminium ingot, supported aluminium prices to hold up well. However, the ongoing release of aluminium capacity overseas and the US policy of a strong dollar will continue to suppress the upside room for prices, presenting clear resistance overhead.

Our comprehensive forecast is that short-term aluminium prices will consolidate on a strong note but encounter resistance. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract is expected to trade in the range of RMB 22,400-23,400 per tonne, while LME aluminium is expected to trade in the range of USD 3,000-3,200 per tonne.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Intel, Ford, Dell warn Trump: New 12.5% tariffs may slow US domestic production aims

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:00:00 +0530

Several leading US manufacturers, including Intel, Dell Technologies, Ford and Honeywell Aerospace, have urged the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to reconsider its call for an additional tariff imposition of up to 12.5 per cent on imports from around 60 countries, including India.

The companies argue that the proposed duties could raise production costs, weaken manufacturing competitiveness, eventually increasing prices for businesses and end-users.

The global aluminium casting usage is expected to reach 24.2 million tonnes in 2026. To learn about the future market trends, prebook our upcoming report “Global Aluminium Casting Market 2026-2032”

Intel and Dell’s warning: A fading US manufacturing industry

The recently proposed tariff framework forms part of the US administration's broader strategy to strengthen domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on overseas supply chains. However, several companies contend that higher import costs on critical industrial inputs may have the opposite effect.

Intel believes that this measure would make domestic manufacturing much more expensive than encouraging local production.

“The practical effect would be to make it more expensive to build in America than to build elsewhere, which runs directly counter to the administration's goal of expanding domestic manufacturing,” the company noted.

Dell Technologies echoed similar concerns, urging the implementation of regulations that would effectively reinforce industrial growth without causing supply chain disruptions.

The company stated, “Dell wants to express the importance of leveraging policy tools that achieve the administration's laudable goals without rapidly increasing production and end-user costs or risking operational delays of key products and components.”

Ford backs targeted exemptions

Ford Motor Company supported exemptions for four product categories already covered under Section 232 tariffs, where import duties of up to 50 per cent are already in place.

According to Ford, overlapping tariffs by applying additional Section 301 tariffs on the same products would impose “excessive and overly burdensome costs on US auto manufacturing” without addressing concerns related to forced labour.

IBM, Dow Chemicals Thailand and GE Appliances (at present part of Haier) also expressed reservations over the proposal, joining a growing list of companies calling for product-specific exemptions to minimise disruption to US manufacturing operations.

Companies seek exemptions for critical inputs

Honeywell Aerospace highlighted the US industry's continued dependence on imported critical minerals, rare earth elements, speciality metals, semiconductors, displays and other high-value aerospace components.

According to the company, imposing “...a tariff would primarily increase the cost of maintaining and producing aerospace products rather than accelerate a feasible sourcing transition.”

Similarly, De Beers argued that “… additional duties on natural diamonds would function primarily as a cost increase for US manufacturers, retailers, and consumers rather than encouraging domestic upstream substitution.”

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Trump’s tariff objective stays strong

As the manufacturers push for relaxing the stringent market measures to reduce impact on the domestic US market, President Trump appears keen on lifting the tariff bar even higher to “a 25 per cent tariff… 35 per cent sometimes… sometimes a 100 per cent, 200 per cent, depending on what the product is.”

Citing the Oklahoma aluminium plant project, Toyota’s Tacoma pickup truck production plans in Texas and other such domestic investment plans, Trump suggested the effectiveness of the tariffs that prompt manufacturers to set up facilities within the country to avoid paying a heftier price.

China aluminium market H1 2026 review and H2 outlook

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 23:30:00 +0530

In H1 2026, SHFE aluminium prices followed a "higher earlier, lower later" trajectory. In Q1, macro expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intertwined with Middle East geopolitical conflicts, driving aluminium prices to surge to historical highs. Entering Q2, as the US strong-dollar policy stance was confirmed, Middle East supply disruptions marginally eased, and domestic downstream consumption in China entered the off-season, the aluminium price centre continued to shift lower.

Looking ahead to H2, macro headwinds from a strong US dollar and overseas liquidity concerns will continue to weigh on nonferrous metals valuations. Supply side, high aluminium prices are stimulating capacity release; China's operating capacity is expected to continue rising M-o-M, while newly commissioned capacity in the Middle East and Indonesia ex-China gradually ramps up.

Demand side, the pace of domestic demand recovery remains mild, and while aluminium semis export orders on hand can still provide a floor, expectations for new orders are weakening. Overall, the SHFE aluminium price centre is expected to move further down in H2, with the full year exhibiting a "higher earlier, lower later" pattern.

H1 2026 SHFE aluminium market review (by phase)

Q1: Macro and geopolitical dominance, aluminium prices retreat after rapid rise

In Q1 2026, SHFE aluminium price movements were primarily driven by macro factors and overseas supply disruptions, with seasonally weak fundamentals becoming a secondary concern.

January: Macro interest rate cut expectations and capital inflows pushed aluminium prices higher

Fundamentals: The Chinese New Year off-season, combined with a demand vacuum, led to a continuous buildup of aluminium ingot social inventory. By end-January, SMM aluminium ingot social inventory had risen to 782,000 tonnes, the highest for the same period in nearly three years. High aluminium prices squeezed downstream profit margins, causing some processing enterprises to reduce operational willingness, and procurement demand for primary aluminium weakened.
Macro front: The US Fed was in an interest rate cutting cycle, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and massive capital flowed into commodity futures markets. Coupled with supportive domestic consumption promotion policies, these factors jointly underpinned aluminium prices. In January, the average SMM A00 aluminium price was about RMB 24,086 per tonne, the highest monthly average in H1.

February: Cooling rate cut expectations, aluminium prices consolidated on a weak note

Fundamentals: The Chinese New Year holiday caused a sharp drop in procurement demand from downstream processing enterprises, while aluminium smelters' willingness to cast ingots increased, leading to further accumulation of aluminium social inventory. After the Chinese New Year, SMM aluminium ingot social inventory rose to 1.108 million tonnes, and the elevated inventory level made it difficult to provide effective upward support for aluminium prices.
Macro Front: Cooling rate cut expectations in the US pushed the US dollar index higher, and profit-taking capital outflows triggered a pullback in aluminium prices, reinforcing the weak consolidation trend. In February, the average SMM A00 aluminium price retreated to RMB 23,385 per tonne, down about RMB 700 per tonne M-o-M.

March: Repeated tug-of-war between Middle East supply disruptions and demand-side restraint

In March, the market’s core trading narrative repeatedly swung between supply-side disruptions in the Middle East and demand-side restraint, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts and driving aluminium prices into a volatile "surge—pullback—rebound" pattern.

Supply side: Production cut events overseas occurred frequently. Mozal shifted into maintenance mode; Qatar Aluminium maintained a 60 per cent operating rate and halted further production cuts; Aluminium Bahrain idled lines 1, 2, and 3, with potential for more cuts; EGA’s aluminium smelter facilities suffered severe damage, with market expectations of large-scale production cuts. According to SMM estimates, including cuts at the Mozambique aluminium smelter, nearly 4 million tonnes of aluminium capacity outside China had been taken offline. Sustained concerns over tightening supply outside China became the core driver behind periodic price rises.
Geopolitical risks: The Middle East conflict continued to escalate and the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz drew broad market attention, injecting persistent geopolitical risk premiums into aluminium prices.
Demand side: Stagflation worries heightened and risk-off sentiment emerged; high aluminium prices curbed downstream procurement, while elevated energy and freight costs squeezed processing enterprise profitability, indirectly restraining the release of demand.

In March, the SMM A00 aluminium average price rebounded to RMB 24,386 per tonne, the second-highest monthly average level in H1, but with markedly wider consolidation.

Q2: Expanding supply and marginally weakening demand shifted the aluminium price centre lower

In Q2, as high aluminium prices spurred higher capacity utilisation rates in China and the impact of overseas production cuts was gradually absorbed, market attention shifted back to China’s fundamentals. The centre of SHFE aluminium dropped from around RMB 24,665 per tonne in April to roughly RMB 23,769 per tonne in June, briefly dipping to the RMB 22,665 per tonne level in late June, a fresh low for the year.

Supply side: High prices prompted aluminium enterprises to raise capacity utilisation rates, boosting China’s production; the impact of production cuts in Mozambique and the Middle East gradually materialised, weakening the SHFE/LME price ratio. From June to July, resumption expectations emerged for curtailed capacity in the Middle East, and new Indonesian projects began being energised and ramping up, heightening expectations of growing aluminium supply outside China. Domestically, according to market communication, China’s aluminium production posted around a 3.5 per cent Y-o-Y growth rate in January-May.
Demand side: High prices weighed on end-use demand in China, but with LME outperforming SHFE, aluminium semis exports increased, supporting domestic primary aluminium demand. According to General Administration of Customs data, China’s cumulative exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis over January-May totalled 2.685 million tonnes, up 10.4 per cent Y-o-Y. April alone saw monthly exports of 598,000 tonnes, a more-than-one-year high; May exports were 632,000 tonnes, a Y-o-Y increase of 15.5 per cent. Strong performance in aluminium semis exports effectively filled the gap in China's domestic consumption.
Inventory side: Q2 saw significant destocking in the market. Social inventory peaked at 1.465 million tonnes in early May and declined to 1.165 million tonnes by end-June, a cumulative destocking of around 300,000 tonnes. The destocking pace steepened markedly, with weekly warehouse withdrawals spiking to 170,000 tonnes at one point, a new high for single-week withdrawals in nearly four years.

Analysis of supply-demand fundamentals

Supply side: High margins boosted operating rates while new projects ramped up, keeping aluminium supply ample in H1

In H1 2026, persistently high industry smelting margins significantly amplified output elasticity, serving as the core driver behind ample supply in the first half. On one hand, strengthening aluminium prices kept per-tonne profit in a healthy range, driving aluminium enterprises to run at maximum operating rates. On the other, new projects that started from end-2025 through H1 2026 progressively ramped up to contribute steady incremental volumes month by month. Continuously realised incremental supply from new capacity ramp-ups further supported domestic primary aluminium output. Driven by these two factors, China's total aluminium production rose steadily in H1, keeping raw material supply broadly ample.

Demand side: weak domestic demand, with exports providing critical support

In H1 2026, China's aluminium demand showed a structural divergence between "weak domestic, strong external" demand. Elevated aluminium prices continuously suppressed downstream purchases, while aluminium semis exports benefited from a recovering SHFE/LME price ratio and performed strongly.

According to China Customs data, China exported 1.435 million tonnes of aluminium semis in January-May 2026, up 13.7 per cent Y-o-Y; May exports alone reached 320,000 tonnes, up 14.7 per cent Y-o-Y. Aluminium semis exports stayed high in the first five months, effectively supplementing domestic channels for absorbing primary aluminium.

Behind the high growth in aluminium semis exports, the core driver was the "LME outperforms SHFE" pricing dynamic: overseas supply tightness expectations due to factors such as Middle East production cuts, while in China high inventory pressure kept the SHFE/LME price ratio weakening, creating a notable profit window for aluminium semis exports.

Inventory: H1 buildup to multiyear highs, rapid destocking kicked off in Q2

In H1 2026, China's aluminium social inventory passed through three stages: "rapid buildup—consolidating at highs—steep destocking". Early in the year, inventory accumulated amid Chinese New Year off-season and demand suppression from elevated prices, reaching a recent-year high of 1.465 million tonnes in early May. Subsequently, with downstream resumption and export volumes ramping up, inventory began rapid destocking. The destocking slope steepened markedly in Q2. The core reason behind the accelerated destocking was the concentrated release of aluminium semis exports combined with a concentrated release of downstream restocking demand after production resumption.

H2 Outlook

Macro Front: Strong US dollar suppresses valuations

The US maintains a strong dollar policy stance, and the US dollar index fluctuating at highs will continue to suppress valuations of non-ferrous metals.
The geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East is gradually fading, shipping expectations in the Strait of Hormuz are improving, and concerns about liquidity outside China are easing, which will pose a bearish factor for aluminium prices in the medium and long term.

Supply Side: New investments and production resumptions outside china advance together

In markets outside China, some projects in the Middle East have been gradually resuming production, and the pace of commissioning new capacity and capacity ramp-up outside China has accelerated.

Demand Side: Support from export orders weakens

In the short term, orders on hand can still underpin aluminium semis exports. However, as the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrows, expectations for new export orders for some aluminium semis are starting to weaken. Medium and long-term export growth faces downside risks. Key focus should be on peak-season consumption in China and changes in export orders.

Overall Assessment

Overall, the SHFE aluminium market in H2 2026 will face dual pressures from “macro headwinds and supply release.”

Turkey's Zahit Aluminium expands extrusion capacity with new 47-MN press

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:30:00 +0530

Zahit Aluminium has commissioned a new 12-inch, 47-MN extrusion press at its production facility in Andana, Turkey. The company said the press has been operating successfully for several months, delivering stable performance and reliable production of aluminium profiles for structural, architectural, framing and photovoltaic applications.

The extrusion press was supplied by Italy-based Danieli Breda and is equipped with isothermal extrusion technology to maintain controlled temperatures at the press exit and ensure consistent product quality throughout the production process.

The new press processes 1,500 mm billets with dead-cycle times of less than 17 seconds, including the burp cycle. It also incorporates Danieli Breda's ESED 4.0 energy-saving system, which helps reduce electricity consumption during operation.

The installation includes an advanced automation system integrated with an IBA data acquisition and analysis platform for production monitoring and process optimisation. Operations are also supported by an industrial tablet used alongside the standard control panel, improving equipment control, maintenance management and remote assistance.

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According to the company, the new extrusion line combines stable production, lower energy consumption and advanced automation while supporting the manufacture of a broad range of aluminium profiles for different industrial applications.

Zahit Aluminium was established by Zahit Balbay in 1983 as Turkey's first window and door joinery workshop. The company expanded into aluminium extrusion in 1998 and added new production and surface treatment lines in the early 2000s to increase capacity and improve product quality. It now exports to 35 countries across four continents through its network of stores and dealers.

As part of its ongoing expansion programme, Zahit Aluminium has placed an order with Danieli Breda for a second extrusion press. The new press is expected to be installed in the coming months and will further increase production capacity at the Andana facility.

Geopolitical conflicts coupled with inventory destocking drive SHFE and LME aluminium to drift higher short-term

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:10:00 +0530

Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,130 per tonne in the night session on July 9, with a high of RMB 23,220 per tonne, a low of RMB 22,985 per tonne, and closed at RMB 23,105 per tonne, up 0.20 per cent from the previous close. During this period, prices continued their rebound from lows, holding above MA5 (23,058.49), MA10 (22,980.96) and MA20 (22,987.34), but still under pressure below the medium and long-term MAs MA40 (23,248.75) and MA60 (23,494.26).

The bearish alignment of medium and long-term MAs remained unchanged, while support at the previous low of 22,250 held firm. Trading volume during this period was 75,000 lots, and open interest was 231,000 lots, up 3,146 lots from the previous session. The futures shifted to bullish position-building, with a rising willingness of buying funds to enter the market. From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart, the MACD DIFF (-108.88) stayed above DEA (-206.49), maintaining a golden cross pattern. The red histogram stick value was 195.23, and bullish momentum kept expanding.

On July 9, LME aluminium opened at USD 3,144.5 per tonne, with a high of USD 3,213.5 per tonne, a low of USD 3,123.5 per tonne, and closed at USD 3,210.5 per tonne, up 2.29 per cent from the previous close. Today's price launched a strong rebound from the previous low of 3,040, closing as a bullish candlestick, and broke above the short-term MAs MA5 (3,160.18) and MA10 (3,157.92). However, it remained below the medium and long-term MAs MA20 (3,230.44), MA40 (3,336.12) and MA60 (3,369.37).

The bearish downward alignment of medium and long-term MAs has yet to reverse. Support at the previous low remained solid, and the downtrend has paused for now. The day's trading volume was 24,878 lots, higher than the previous session, while open interest was 601,000 lots, down 1,200 lots from the previous session, indicating a pattern of bears reducing positions and exiting.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the MACD DIFF (-102.06) crossed above DEA (-109.89), forming a golden cross. The histogram flipped from green to red, bearish momentum subsided, and bullish momentum officially commenced, establishing a short-term rebound trend.

Macro front: The ECB's June meeting minutes showed that the bank can no longer ignore the energy shock, as rising energy prices are expected to push medium-term inflation above its 2 per cent target. Last month, the ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to raise the key interest rate to 2.25 per cent, making it the first major central bank to hike rates due to high energy prices caused by the Iran war.

Fed Chairman Walsh Kevin has formed five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed's monetary policy operating framework, covering areas such as balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The Fed stated that the working groups will operate independently, conduct fact-based research, and present rigorous analysis to the Federal Open Market Committee.

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 74.9 per cent, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike stood at 25.1 per cent. For September, the probability of unchanged rates was 35.7 per cent, a cumulative 25bp hike stood at 51.1 per cent, and a cumulative 50bp hike was 13.1 per cent.

Fundamentals: In terms of aluminium price spreads, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to repair. On Thursday, the SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio rebounded to 7.36, up significantly from 7.28 in the previous week. Boosted by aluminium billet processing fees, domestic enterprises showed stronger production willingness, the proportion of liquid aluminium climbed steadily, and market casting ingot volume contracted.

Meanwhile, downstream substitution demand was released, with alloy plants and extrusion plants switching to aluminium ingots to replace aluminium scrap and billets, driving persistent high rigid demand for aluminium ingots, and the subsequent inventory destocking pace is likely to continue. This week, the overall operating rate of industry-leading domestic aluminium processing enterprises remained in a downtrend, edging down 0.7 percentage points W-o-W to 61.9 per cent, as the off-season effect exerted notable constraints.

Primary aluminium market: During the morning session, the trading centre of the SHFE aluminium 2606 contract was lower than the same period of the previous trading day. Weighed by lower aluminium prices, selling sentiment in the market edged down W-o-W from the previous day, with some sellers holding prices firm and holding back from selling.

Overall stockpiling sentiment among downstream buyers stayed high, and their price acceptance improved W-o-W from the previous day. Market transactions were concluded at parity to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium 07 contract, with mainstream deals at a premium of RMB 10 per tonne. In east China, the selling sentiment index closed at 2.98, down 0.09 W-o-W; the buying sentiment index stood at 3.04, up 0.04 W-o-W. During the morning session, aluminium futures underwent a slight correction.

In central China, downstream processing enterprises were constrained by weak end-user orders and high finished product inventories, leaving buying sentiment subdued. However, as the discount widening trend continued, trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market maintained high buying sentiment, preferring to purchase at deep discounts, while suppliers demonstrated notable willingness to hold prices firm.

Consequently, the actual transaction price range in central China settled around a discount of RMB 120-140 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium 07 contract. The selling sentiment index in central China stood at 2.86, down 0.01 W-o-W; the buying sentiment index came in at 2.15, up 0.02 W-o-W.

Aluminium scrap: Yesterday, SMM A00 spot aluminium prices closed at RMB 22,950 per tonne, a slight correction of RMB 90 per tonne W-o-W from the previous trading day. The overall aluminium scrap market tracked the decline, with some regions adopting a wait-and-see stance and holding steady.

On the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, the spread between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan stood at RMB 2,011 per tonne on July 9, while the spread between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 697 per tonne, slightly stabilising from historically extreme lows of the previous week, though still at very low levels. As the stricter reverse-invoicing policy provides a floor, the logic that aluminium scrap is more likely to rise than fall remains intact. Supply-side constraints continue to intensify, and the impact of the reverse invoicing policy is deepening further.

News emerged from Shandong that reverse invoicing will be suspended from July, while production cuts and shutdowns among small and medium-sized scrap utilisation enterprises in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other regions have been spreading. The scarcity of compliant, invoiced aluminium scrap has risen further.

Moreover, on the import side, the earlier inversion in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets caused a shortage of high-quality overseas cargoes. Due to a 1-3 month shipping lag, port arrivals from June to August remain low. Meanwhile, the UAE's implementation of an aluminium scrap export ban and the EU’s tariff hike policy has further intensified the contraction in overseas aluminium scrap supply. Next week, the aluminium scrap market is expected to continue its narrow-range consolidation pattern characterised by demand suppression and cost support, with the mainstream trading range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) centering on RMB 19,900-20,500 per tonne.

The pullback in spot primary aluminium prices means limited room for the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap to narrow further. The cost advantage of aluminium scrap over primary aluminium is unlikely to disappear in the short term, and demand-side support for aluminium scrap prices persists. If aluminium prices continue to decline thereafter, the substitution effect of primary aluminium for aluminium scrap will accelerate and become more apparent.

Secondary aluminium alloy: Spot market: Yesterday, ADC12 market offers were generally stable, with slight declines in some areas, and wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified further. Yesterday, aluminium prices and cast aluminium alloy pulled back slightly. Some enterprises did not rush to follow the decline, instead waiting for greater market clarity, and indicated that if the futures market continues to weaken, there is a possibility of catch-up declines later.

Meanwhile, since July, downstream orders have weakened somewhat, and transaction support has been insufficient, exerting some pressure on prices. In addition, recently imports of ADC12 supply have increased, easing earlier expectations of tight domestic supply, which also weakened the market's confidence in holding prices firm. However, against a backdrop where aluminium scrap costs still exhibit some resilience, most enterprises are currently mainly adopting a wait-and-see stance and holding prices steady, and ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term.

Aluminium market summary: On the macro front, the US-Iran situation has escalated rapidly. The US re-imposed comprehensive oil sanctions on Iran, terminated relevant memorandums of understanding, and launched strikes on over a hundred Iranian military facilities; Iran retaliated immediately, causing a rapid rise in Middle East geopolitical risk premiums.

On the domestic front, positive factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminium continues to rise, and aluminium ingot warehouse withdrawals have hit a four-year high in the past week, with the destocking pace accelerating markedly and providing support for SHFE aluminium at the bottom. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, the bearish impact of a stronger US dollar and the bullish effect of higher geopolitical risk premiums offset each other. After its earlier oversold decline, LME aluminium's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term it will mainly consolidate and recover at lows.

Supported by rapid destocking, the domestic market is unlikely to underperform LME aluminium, and the SHFE and LME may see slight divergence, making a sustained one-sided weak trend difficult. Overall, Middle East geopolitical conflicts are pushing up risk premiums, and continued destocking of aluminium ingots in China is supporting aluminium prices to hold up well. However, the continued release of aluminium capacity outside China and the US's strong dollar policy will continue to suppress the upside room for aluminium prices, creating significant pressure on the upside.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

LME aluminium price on the rise: Cash, 3-month gain 1%; stocks dip further to 290,825t

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 05:20:00 +0530

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued their improving trend on July 9. Cash and near-term contracts reported gains of almost 1 per cent, while stocks continued to slide, indicating depletion in the inventory amid tight market conditions.

On July 9, the LME aluminium cash bid price edged up from USD 3,140.5 per tonne on July 8 to USD 3,163 per tonne on July 9, representing a 0.72 per cent rise. The offer price climbed from USD 3,141 per tonne to USD 3,164 per tonne, gaining 0.73 per cent day-on-day.

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The LME aluminium three-month contract bid price edged up from USD 3,145 per tonne on July 8 to USD 3,168.5 per tonne on July 9, recording a 0.75 per cent increase. The offer price rose from USD 3,147 per tonne to USD 3,169 per tonne, rising 0.7 per cent.

The December 2027 bid, as well as offer prices, increased by 0.42 per cent on July 9. The bid went up from USD 3,072 per tonne to USD 3,085 per tonne, as the offer price improved from USD 3,077 per tonne to USD 3,090 per tonne.

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The LME aluminium 3-month Asian Reference Price stood at USD 3,200.5 on July 9, compared to USD 3,132 per tonne on July 8, indicating a dip of 2.19 per cent.

On the inventory front, LME aluminium opening stock declined further to 290,825 tonnes on July 9 compared to 292,425 tonnes on July 8, reflecting a difference of 0.55 per cent.

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Live warrants, same as the previous close, remained at 246,400 tonnes.

Again, cancelled warrants dropped to 42,825 tonnes from 44,425 tonnes, marking another decrease of 1,275 tonnes, or 3.6 per cent.

The LME alumina Platts price remained unchanged from the previous session at USD 330.2 per tonne on July 9.

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