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WEEKLY: Chinese alumina prices hold flat as supply improves

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:45:00 +0530

China's alumina prices held broadly steady during May 1-7 after a brief uptick seen ahead of the May Day holiday over May 1-5, as cautious sentiment prevailed in the spot market amid signs of loosening supply following temporary pre-holiday tightness.

According to Mysteel's price assessment, the national average spot price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent stood at Yuan 2,705/tonne ($398.1/t) on May 7, unchanged from a week earlier.

Explore- Most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

During and after the five-day holiday break, many alumina buyers stayed on the sidelines as earlier supply tightness – caused by production cuts in Guangxi – began to ease. The improvement in availability was supported by output from newly commissioned capacity and increased imports.

On the supply side, alumina production showed signs of recovery. Over May 1-7, output of metallurgical-grade alumina among the 44 producers under Mysteel's tracking rose by 0.9 per cent on week to 1.77 million tonnes, according to Mysteel's survey. This followed consecutive weekly declines in the previous two weeks, Mysteel Global noted.

In particular, production from new capacity in Guangxi that came online last month has started to be ramped up, alleviating the regional supply tightness that had emerged prior to the holiday due to earlier curtailments.

Meanwhile, inventory pressure continued to build. As of May 7, total alumina stocks across China's 10 major ports, 44 alumina refiners, 89 primary aluminium smelters, and rail yards or in-transit tracked by Mysteel had climbed by 0.74 per cent from a week earlier to reach a fresh record high of 5.98 million tonnes, Mysteel's survey showed.

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The increase was largely driven by a surge in portside inventories following fresh arrivals of imported alumina. Stocks at the 10 major ports jumped by 17 per cent on week to 448,000 tonnes, the highest level since late May 2022.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel

Aluminium Corporation of China Limited shares fall 3.38% amid pressure on aluminium

Wed, 13 May 2026 08:45:00 +0530

Shares of Aluminium Corporation of China Limited slipped 3.38 per cent on Monday, May 11, closing at HKD 11.15 (USD 1.43) from HKD 11.54 (USD 1.48) on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, amid broader weakness across the commodities sector. According to market data from StockInvest.us dated May 12, 2026, the stock moved within a volatile trading range during the session, even as the company continued to hold positive technical indicators from its moving averages.

Known globally as Chalco, the Beijing-headquartered aluminium major remains one of the world’s largest integrated aluminium producers, with operations spanning bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminium smelting and downstream processing. The company is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under 2600.HK and on the Shanghai Stock Exchange as 601600.SS.

The latest decline reflects mounting pressure on metals producers as energy costs, fluctuating aluminium prices and cautious industrial demand continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Despite the pullback, analysts note that Chalco’s vertically integrated structure provides the company with stronger control over raw material sourcing and production costs compared with many global peers.

For forward-thinking aluminium market insights amidst supply chain and price challenges, read "ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026."

Chalco generates the bulk of its revenue from alumina refining and primary aluminium sales, supported by energy and trading businesses. Alumina continues to be a major earnings contributor as China retains its position as the world’s leading producer.

The company’s business model is designed around scale and supply chain integration. By operating across the full aluminium value chain, Chalco is able to reduce exposure to supply disruptions while maintaining competitive production efficiency in China’s regulated aluminium market.

For international investors, Chalco remains a key gateway to China’s aluminium industry and broader commodity cycle exposure. The company’s supply chain relevance has also increased with rising global demand for lightweight materials used in automotive manufacturing, renewable power systems and electrification projects.

Market observers said Chalco’s export exposure and its role in supplying aluminium products to global manufacturing chains continue to tie its performance closely to worldwide industrial activity, including demand trends linked to the United States and other major economies.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

Indian aluminium suppliers should prepare early for CBAM to maintain access to EU customers

Wed, 13 May 2026 08:15:00 +0530

The interview revolves around the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its implications for the aluminium sector, particularly Indian exporters. Alberto Monje Gama, global Sustainability Policy Manager at TIC Council explains that CBAM is not primarily designed to reduce emissions within the EU aluminium industry but to prevent carbon leakage and maintain a level playing field for global producers. He emphasises that Indian exporters must focus on verified emissions data, robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems, and decarbonisation strategies to remain competitive.

With a background in European studies and policy, Alberto Monje Gama has spent the last five years in Brussels developing his career around the European and global institutions and industry. For the last three years, he has served as the global Sustainability Policy Manager at TIC Council, where he manages the association’s global and European sustainability activities. Among his portfolio, he manages the association positioning and engagement with stakeholders around the issues of CBAM, carbon markets, carbon removals, sustainability reporting, eco-design and renewable energy.

AL Circle: A draft report released on April 10, 2026, suggests that the CBAM will likely expand to include around 180 additional steel and aluminium-based products starting January 1, 2028. Given this looming development, how do you foresee this affecting India’s aluminium exports to the European Union? Furthermore, what measures should India adopt to mitigate the impact of this expansion on aluminium sector?

Alberto Monje Gama: TIC Council believes, or understands, that the European Union’s intention is not to keep CBAM limited to the current covered sectors but to progressively align it more closely with the scope of the EU ETS and reduce the risk that EU production is outsourced to jurisdictions with lower or no carbon costs. The proposed expansion to around 180 steel- and aluminium-intensive downstream products from January 1, 2028, should therefore be seen as part of a broader direction of travel, even if the final scope and timing still depend on the EU legislative process.

For India’s aluminium sector, the impact will depend largely on the emissions intensity of production and, equally importantly, on the ability of exporters to provide robust and verified emissions data. EU importers are the entities bearing CBAM compliance obligations, so they are likely to prioritise suppliers that can provide reliable product-level emissions data. Where such data is unavailable or considered insufficient, importers may need to rely on default values, which are intentionally conservative and can increase the CBAM cost of the product.

We therefore recommend that Indian companies may view this as a transition signal rather than purely a trade barrier to build mature monitoring, reporting and verification systems across operations and supply chains. This includes collecting reliable emissions data, engaging suppliers, improving traceability, and preparing for independent verification. In parallel, companies should also consider measures to reduce embedded emissions, including energy efficiency, cleaner electricity sourcing, process optimisation and better management of recycled aluminium inputs.

EU is a premium market for Indian aluminium suppliers, while EU and India regulatory diplomacy will continue around transparent and non-discriminatory implementation of CBAM. We recommend that companies should prepare early to be better placed to maintain access to EU customers and differentiate themselves from competitors. TIC companies can support this process by helping producers assess their supply chains, implement MRV systems, improve data quality and prepare for third-party verification. In this sense, the key to succeeding under CBAM is not only reducing emissions but being able to demonstrate emissions performance credibly and consistently.

AL Circle: The report highlights the tightening of carbon accounting regulations for scrap-based production, now including emissions from pre-consumer scrap. While this stricter rule could potentially lower the carbon footprint, could it also have the unintended consequence of disrupting the recycled aluminium supply chain?

Alberto Monje Gama: This is a valid concern, but I would frame it less as a risk caused by stricter carbon accounting itself and more as a risk linked to how the rule is implemented. Including pre-consumer scrap in CBAM accounting helps close a genuine loophole: without it, high-carbon primary aluminium can be indirectly channelled through scrap-based routes and appear artificially low-carbon. We believe that the Commission’s proposal recognises this by stating that emissions from pre-consumer aluminium scrap should be counted when used as a precursor for CBAM goods.

However, there is a potential unintended consequence. If the methodology is too rigid, administratively burdensome, or treats different types of scrap inconsistently, it could distort scrap flows, increase compliance costs, and make recycled aluminium supply chains less predictable. This is particularly relevant because European industry already faces concerns about scrap availability, export leakage, and competition from jurisdictions able to pay more for EU scrap.

The right policy balance is therefore to prevent carbon leakage and resource shuffling without penalising genuine circularity. The objective should not be to make recycled aluminium less attractive but to ensure that recycled-content claims reflect real emissions performance and do not become a route for CBAM circumvention.

In the TIC Council, we have advocated for better traceability and transparency requirements for precursors and other CBAM-covered goods. TIC companies, in their emissions report, can also verify the origin and supply chain traceability of the different goods so exporters, importers and regulators can have a deeper assurance on the real origin and use of all the goods.

AL Circle: The potential expansion of CBAM is poised to significantly raise carbon tax costs for Indian manufacturers, including the aluminium sector. In light of this, could this policy be a double-edged sword for India, as increased carbon tax burden may strain the country’s economy, while a decline in exports resulting from these higher costs could further dampen revenue streams. Alternatively, can the expected rise in domestic consumption offset these challenges?

Alberto Monje Gama: On behalf of the TIC Council, we advocate for balanced solutions that support companies’ competitiveness while also advancing climate objectives. CBAM is a highly complex instrument because it aims to address both priorities: reducing carbon leakage while preserving a level playing field between EU and non-EU producers.

In my opinion, CBAM have some characteristics for a double-edged instrument for India. Higher carbon costs could affect the competitiveness of Indian exports to the EU, including in the aluminium sector, particularly where production is emissions-intensive or where companies cannot provide reliable, verified emissions data. This could create pressure on exporters and on revenue streams linked to EU trade. However, the impact should not be assessed only as a cost. CBAM also creates a strong incentive for Indian producers to improve emissions monitoring, invest in lower-carbon production, and strengthen their position in international markets where carbon performance is becoming increasingly important.

Domestic consumption may help absorb part of the pressure, especially given India’s expected industrial and infrastructure growth. However, it should not be seen as a complete offset. The EU remains a high-value market, and losing competitiveness there could have broader implications for companies’ international positioning. The strategic objective should therefore be twofold: support domestic demand while ensuring Indian producers remain competitive in export markets that increasingly require verifiable low-carbon credentials.

This is where carbon markets and robust MRV systems become important. TIC Council supports the development of carbon markets as a way to create market-based incentives for decarbonisation and to encourage the use of verifiable, actual emissions data. The EU ETS shows that such systems can deliver results: emissions from sectors covered by the EU ETS dropped by around 50 per cent compared with 2005 levels. If synergies are developed between CBAM, the EU ETS and India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, India could use this transition to support a more market-based and credible decarbonisation pathway.

The real application of CBAM started on January 1, 2026, with the first annual CBAM declaration and certificate surrender due in 2027. Time will tell how significant the global economic consequences will be, but the TIC industry stands ready to support companies by helping them implement MRV systems, strengthen supply-chain data, prepare for verification, and demonstrate emissions performance credibly.

AL Circle: To what extent do you believe the European Union's CBAM policy will effectively reduce carbon emissions within its domestic aluminium industry? Is the potential for significant environmental impact outweighed by the policy’s broader economic consequences?

Alberto Monje Gama: The direct purpose of CBAM is not, in itself, to reduce emissions within the EU aluminium industry. That objective is primarily pursued through the EU Emissions Trading System, which puts a carbon price on energy-intensive sectors and creates an incentive for industrial decarbonisation.

CBAM should be understood as a complementary instrument to the EU ETS. As free allowances under the EU ETS are gradually phased out and European producers face a stronger carbon price, there is a risk that production shifts to countries with lower or no carbon costs. CBAM aims to prevent this carbon leakage by ensuring that imported products face an equivalent carbon price, regardless of where they are produced. In other words, it seeks to preserve a level playing field between EU manufacturers and global exporters.

Therefore, CBAM is unlikely to be the main driver of emissions reductions inside the EU aluminium sector. Its more direct environmental contribution is to protect the integrity of the EU ETS and prevent emissions from being displaced outside Europe. It may also create incentives for producers outside the EU, including in India, to improve emissions monitoring, invest in lower-carbon production and participate in credible carbon pricing systems.

The economic consequences are real and should not be underestimated, particularly for trade-exposed sectors and exporters in emerging economies. However, these consequences do not necessarily outweigh the environmental rationale if the system is implemented in a proportionate and predictable way. The key is to ensure that CBAM relies on actual, verified emissions data, recognises carbon prices effectively paid in third countries where relevant, and avoids unnecessary administrative burdens.

From the TIC sector’s perspective, the priority is to support balanced implementation: robust enough to prevent carbon leakage and support climate objectives, but practical enough to preserve competitiveness and enable companies to comply. TIC companies can support this by helping manufacturers build reliable emissions data systems, prepare for verification, and demonstrate their carbon performance credibly.

AL Circle: How is the TIC Council supporting major aluminium-exporting nations to the European Union in navigating the challenges posed by CBAM? Are these efforts sufficient to mitigate the policy’s effects, or are they merely a temporary palliative?

Alberto Monje Gama: The TIC sector is in a strong position to support aluminium-exporting countries and companies in navigating CBAM. Under the EU framework, accredited verifiers will play an important role in ensuring that reported embedded emissions are reliable, consistent and based on actual data. This is essential because companies that can demonstrate their real emissions performance are better placed to avoid reliance on conservative default values and to reflect their local realities and decarbonisation efforts.

This expertise does not come from nowhere. TIC companies already have extensive experience in certification, inspection, testing, validation and verification, including in relation to emissions data, regulatory compliance, voluntary carbon markets and industrial decarbonisation schemes. Many TIC companies also support verification activities under systems such as the EU ETS and emerging carbon market frameworks, including India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme.

As TIC Council, we engage with key stakeholders, including the European Commission, accreditation bodies, industry representatives and authorities in major exporting countries, including India. Our objective is to support balanced and workable implementation, ensuring that CBAM requirements are robust but also practical for companies to apply. This includes promoting reliable monitoring, reporting and verification systems, supply-chain data quality, and recognition of credible local decarbonisation efforts where the regulation allows it.

These efforts are not merely a temporary palliative. They are part of the long-term infrastructure that companies need to operate in a market where carbon performance increasingly matters. At the same time, TIC support cannot, on its own, remove the economic impact of CBAM. Verification and MRV systems help companies demonstrate their real emissions and remain competitive, but they need to be accompanied by broader industrial measures, including emissions reduction, cleaner energy sourcing, process improvements and effective carbon market development.

Therefore, the TIC sector’s contribution is best understood as an enabler. It helps companies comply, reduce uncertainty, and credibly demonstrate their emissions performance. This does not neutralise all CBAM-related costs, but it can significantly reduce compliance risk and support the competitiveness of aluminium exporters in the EU market.

India turns down US-sanctioned Russian LNG despite Middle East supply strains

Wed, 13 May 2026 07:40:00 +0530

India has refused to purchase Russian liquefied natural gas cargoes covered by US sanctions despite growing supply pressure linked to tensions in the Middle East, highlighting New Delhi’s effort to balance energy security with rising compliance risks.

The decision has left at least one LNG shipment in uncertainty. A cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Portovaya LNG plant in the Baltic Sea has been unable to discharge after India declined to accept it, according to sources familiar with the matter. The 138,200-cubic-metre tanker Kunpeng, which had earlier indicated India’s Dahej LNG terminal as its destination in mid-April, is now waiting near Singaporean waters without broadcasting a final destination, according to LSEG shipping data.

Sources said the cargo had been tracked despite documentation indicating the shipment was non-Russian, underlining the difficulty of masking LNG trade flows. Unlike crude oil cargoes, which can be obscured through ship-to-ship transfers at sea, LNG shipments are significantly harder to conceal because of satellite monitoring and stricter traceability requirements.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Russian LNG faces tougher acceptance than crude oil

India communicated its position during Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin’s visit on April 30, when he met Indian officials including Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. The discussions marked Sorokin’s second visit to India within two months, and further talks could take place in June.

While India has continued importing large volumes of Russian crude oil, LNG has emerged as a more sensitive area because of direct US sanctions on Russian gas projects such as Portovaya LNG and Arctic LNG 2. Washington tightened sanctions on the Russian LNG sector in early 2025 over Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

India’s crude imports from Russia have continued largely uninterrupted, supported by a temporary US sanctions waiver introduced to help countries manage the global energy shock caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began on February 28. However, LNG transactions carry higher compliance exposure, making Indian buyers more cautious despite Russia’s willingness to expand sales.

Sources said India remains open to purchasing authorised Russian LNG cargoes, although much of those available volumes are already committed to Europe. China, meanwhile, continues to be a major buyer of both sanctioned and non-sanctioned Russian LNG supplies.

Also read: Middle East conflict: Barring India’s crude oil import, fuelling food crisis and aluminium shortage?

Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens India’s energy concerns

The issue comes at a difficult time for India’s energy market. Before the Iran conflict disrupted shipping movements through the Strait of Hormuz, India relied on imports to meet nearly half of its natural gas consumption, with around 60 per cent of those imports passing through the waterway. More than half of India’s crude oil supplies also moved through the same route.

Alongside LNG discussions, Moscow is also seeking long-term agreements with India covering LNG supplies as well as fertilisers including potash, phosphorus and urea, as Russia looks to deepen trade ties with one of its largest energy buyers.

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Vedanta set to unlock $300M in value through AI-led industrial transformation

Wed, 13 May 2026 07:20:00 +0530

Vedanta Group, India’s leading metals, oil & gas, critical minerals, power and technology conglomerate, highlighted the impact of its Artificial Intelligence (AI) and deep-tech-led transformation initiatives through V-Spark DeepTech Ventures, a global corporate innovation, accelerator and ventures platform. Since inception, V-Spark-led initiatives have delivered value creation of nearly 4 times return on investment (ROI). Building on this momentum, Vedanta expects to unlock an additional USD 300-400 million in value over the next three years through the large-scale deployment of AI-led, intelligent industrial technologies across its businesses.

Aligned with this year’s National Technology Day theme, “Responsible Innovation for Inclusive Growth,” Vedanta continues to scale AI, predictive analytics, IIoT (Industrial Internet of Things), digital twins, machine learning, industrial data platforms, intelligent automation and connected manufacturing technologies across its operations to enhance production volumes, improve operational efficiency, reduce cost of production, strengthen ESG performance and advance digital safety across businesses.

Speaking on the occasion, Mr Akarsh Hebbar, Chairman, V-Spark DeepTech Ventures and President, Vedanta Group, said, “As India advances towards becoming a global manufacturing and technology powerhouse, Vedanta is leveraging AI, automation and deep-tech innovation as key drivers of operational excellence and sustainable growth. Through V-Spark DeepTech Ventures, we are accelerating the deployment of scalable technologies across businesses to improve productivity, optimise costs, strengthen safety and build future-ready industrial operations that are globally competitive, efficient and resilient.”

For forward-thinking aluminium market insights amidst supply chain and price challenges, read "ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026."

Through V-Spark DeepTech Ventures, Vedanta is accelerating the adoption of scalable digital technologies for the manufacturing sector that support production enhancement, energy optimisation, process intelligence, automation, predictive maintenance and real-time operational visibility across asset-intensive industries. As part of this vision, the Group plans to engage with over 1000 startups through V-Spark to build a strong innovation ecosystem focused on AI, industrial digitalisation, sustainability and next-generation manufacturing technologies.

Vedanta has implemented several AI-led solutions across operations, including predictive maintenance systems, AI-enabled thermal monitoring, advanced froth analytics, intelligent energy management platforms and automated process optimisation systems.

The company has also deployed more than 500 AI-enabled safety cameras across operations to strengthen workplace safety through real-time monitoring and analytics. In mining operations, AI-driven fleet optimisation initiatives have improved haulage efficiency and reduced fuel consumption, while tele-remote mining technologies are enabling safer and smarter underground operations, reducing man-machine contact.

Vedanta’s digital manufacturing initiatives are also delivering measurable business impact. For instance, automated monitoring systems in smelter operations have generated nearly USD 4.2 million in value creation, while Mine Excellence initiatives are expected to contribute an annual EBITDA impact of nearly USD 10 million through process optimisation and intelligent operational controls. The company is further integrating AI-led command centres, digital dashboards and advanced analytics platforms to strengthen enterprise-wide visibility and operational agility.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

Beyond core operations, Vedanta is integrating AI into procurement and supply chain functions through intelligent buying and inventory management systems designed to improve planning efficiency and optimise working capital.

V-Spark DeepTech Ventures continues to strengthen Vedanta’s innovation-led growth strategy by enabling rapid deployment of emerging technologies across industrial operations through collaborations with startups, technology companies and innovation ecosystems.

Note: This article has been issued by Vedanta and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Alba sales decline 17% in Q1 2026 as Gulf conflict disrupts aluminium supply chains

Wed, 13 May 2026 06:20:00 +0530

Aluminium Bahrain, the world’s largest aluminium smelter on a single site, reported a sharp rise in profitability in Q1 2026 despite operational disruptions caused by regional tensions across the Gulf.

Profit attributable to equity holders surged 316 per cent year on year to BHD 75.3 million (USD 200.3 million) in Q1 2026, compared with BHD 18.1 million (USD 48.2 million) in Q1 2025. However, compared with Q4 2025, profit declined from BHD 108.7 million (USD289.2 million), reflecting a quarter-on-quarter drop of around 30.7 per cent.

Operationally, the quarter reflected mounting regional pressure on production and trade flows. Sales volume declined 17 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1 2026, to 312,563 tonnes as shipping disruptions, including constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, affected exports and logistics. Net finished production also fell 14 per cent to 339,734 tonnes following the controlled shutdown of Lines 1–3 amid prevailing regional tensions.

Value Added Products (VAP) continued to account for the majority of shipments at 71 per cent, although VAP volumes declined 16 per cent Y-o-Y to 222,626 tonnes due to weaker shipment activity. Alba also confirmed natural gas prices at USD 4.5 per MMBTU for the full 2026 calendar year.

Basic and diluted earnings per share rose to 53 fils from 13 fils a year earlier, while total comprehensive income climbed 353 per cent Y-o-Y to BHD 76.1 million (USD 202.4 million).

The company’s balance sheet strengthened during the quarter as total equity attributable to Alba shareholders increased to BHD 2,098.7 million (USD 5.58 billion) as of March 31, 2026, compared with BHD 2,084.6 million at the end of December 2025. Total assets rose 7 per cent to BHD 2,807.6 million (USD 7.47 billion).

Strait of Hormuz risks expose Gulf aluminium dependence

The quarter also reinforced how heavily the Gulf aluminium industry depends on the Strait of Hormuz, the main export route for aluminium from Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar. The narrow 33-kilometre-wide corridor remains critical for a region whose aluminium industry was built around low-cost energy advantages rather than diversified logistics infrastructure.

The Gulf accounts for around 8-9 per cent of global primary aluminium production, while Aluminium Bahrain alone operates nearly 1.6 million tonnes of annual smelting capacity, making it one of the world’s largest single-site producers.

Regional conflict increased supply chain uncertainty during Q1 2026, even as stronger US manufacturing activity and resilient Chinese industrial output supported the global economy. Global aluminium demand rose 0.5 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by packaging, automotive and electrical sectors, while supply increased 2 per cent but remained constrained by China’s 45 million tonne production cap.

Middle East aluminium production declined around 3 per cent Y-o-Y, due to conflict-related curtailments. As a result, global markets remained heavily dependent on Chinese supply, with a surplus of around 592,000 tonnes including China, while ex-China markets stayed in a deficit of roughly 135,000 tonnes.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Alba pushes expansion, logistics flexibility and sustainability plans

Alongside managing operational disruptions, Aluminium Bahrain continued to advance its long-term growth strategy during 2026. On May 6, 2026, the company signed a Share Purchase Agreement with American Industrial Partners for the proposed acquisition of Aluminium Dunkerque after obtaining the required works council approvals. The transaction is still subject to regulatory clearance before completion.

Amid tightening raw material availability, Alba introduced disciplined production curtailment measures aimed at optimising alumina consumption, maintaining smelter stability and protecting operational integrity. The company said it continues to closely monitor inventory positions and operating conditions while maintaining operational flexibility.

To strengthen supply-chain resilience, Alba also expanded its sourcing diversification strategy and introduced more flexible logistics arrangements, including the use of multiple regional ports and multimodal transport routes for both imports and exports. Read Alba’s 2025 performance report: Higher LME prices and operational discipline drive 18.5% YoY profit growth for a indepth view.

For 2026, the company’s priorities remain centred on operational continuity, employee safety and rapid response capabilities during regional disruptions. At the same time, Alba plans to continue advancing sustainability initiatives aligned with Bahrain’s net-zero ambitions while expanding its portfolio of value-added aluminium products supported by certification frameworks.

Efficiency improvements remain another major focus area. Since 2024, Alba’s e-Al Hassalah programme has delivered cumulative benefits of USD 126.37 million despite the company reporting a marginal net loss of USD 0.52 million in Q1 2026. Alba said the programme will continue using Lean Six Sigma methodologies and AI-driven initiatives to improve operational performance, while long-term strategic projects such as Alba Daiki Sustainable Solutions remain under development to support future growth positioning.

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Tightening supply combined with import pullback, tight aluminium scrap circulation underpins prices

Wed, 13 May 2026 06:30:00 +0530

During the night session, aluminium alloy 2607 exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hovering at lows." From the intraday perspective, prices first dipped quickly to around 23,180 after the opening, then rebounded as capital flowed in, briefly surging to around 23,340-23,350, with short-term sentiment somewhat recovering. However, selling pressure above remained evident, and prices gradually pulled back after hitting the intraday high. After 23:00, prices fell back below the average price line, entering a pace of being in the doldrums. Near the close, futures mostly moved sideways within the RMB 23,240-23,270 per tonne range, ultimately closing at RMB 23,255 per tonne, edging down from the previous settlement.

Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on May 12, the SMM ADC12 spot price's theoretical premium over the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2606) at the 10:15 closing price narrowed to RMB 355 per tonne.

Warrant daily report: SHFE data showed that on May 12, total registered warrants for cast aluminium alloy stood at 33,884 tonnes, up 237 tonnes from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai's total registered volume was 776 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day; Guangdong's total registered volume was 10,367 tonnes, down 30 tonnes; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 6,176 tonnes, up 177 tonnes; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 9,747 tonnes, up 90 tonnes; Chongqing's total registered volume was 4,600 tonnes, up 237 tonnes; Sichuan's total registered volume was 995 tonnes, flat from the previous trading day.

Aluminium scrap: On Tuesday, A00 aluminium prices edged down RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day, while the aluminium scrap market remained largely stable. Shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) traded in a mainstream range of RMB 20,500-21,000 per tonne (tax-exclusive). Imported zorba (Ningbo Port) saw its weekly trading range raised by RMB 200 per tonne to RMB 21,870-22,070 per tonne (tax-inclusive). On the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, on May 12, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was recorded at RMB 2,723 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 2,078 per tonne. Supply side, the tightening trend in compliant invoice sources intensified, raw material prices swung wildly, and aluminium scrap yards generally held back from selling and held prices firm. High LME prices led import traders to adopt cautious strategies, and subsequent imports are expected to pull back. Demand side, the traditional off-season combined with prominent compliant invoice issues led some regional enterprises to reduce or halt production. Wrought aluminium alloy scrap was supported by secondary aluminium plate/sheet and strip operating rates, but the support was limited. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. The off-season effect on the demand side continued, with downstream secondary aluminium enterprises cautiously watching the market. Procurement was mainly small-lot restocking for rigid demand. The divergence between aluminium tense scrap and wrought aluminium alloy scrap persisted, order growth remained limited, and vigilance is still needed against market risks from aluminium price fluctuations and tight supply.

Silicon metal: On May 12, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was stable from the previous day; oxygen-blown #553 was stable from the previous day; #521 was stable from the previous day; #441 was stable from the previous day; #421 was stable from the previous day; #421 for silicone use was stable from the previous day; #3303 was stable from the previous day. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Xinjiang, Shanghai, and Sichuan remained stable.

Markets outside China: Current import ADC12 quotes remained at the high range of USD 3,320-3,400 per tonne, with instant import losses still exceeding RMB 3,000 per tonne, and the theoretical import window continued to stay closed.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

New phase unlocked: Cameroon’s Minim Martap bauxite project is set to get its first locomotives from China

Wed, 13 May 2026 06:20:00 +0530

In Cameroon, the Minim Martap bauxite project advanced into the next step as the first locomotives for the mine’s future rail operations are set to arrive in the country. CRRC Corporation, a Chinese manufacturer, has crafted seven locomotives and is currently on its way to the port of Douala for Camalco. This is the Cameroonian subsidiary of the mining company Canyon Resources in Australia, working on the bauxite deposit in the Adamaoua region.

The arrival of the shipment was announced by Cosco Shipping, a logistics company, which has recently loaded 12 locomotives bound for Africa. The delivery of these seven locomotives is scheduled for Cameroon to boost the rail system, aiding in transporting the ore from the future mine.

Also read: Minim Martap bauxite project moves forward with rail upgrades and port preparations

The delivery marks the larger part of the Camalco and CRRC Corporation agreement, which includes 22 diesel locomotives in total. Looking into the rail infrastructure for this project is vital for upholding an effective export strategy. This is more so because Minim Martap is aiming for an annual target of 10 million tonnes of bauxite.

Within a project's largest operational and financial components, maintaining a secure transport system is crucial. Owing to this, a total CFA176.8 billion (USD 303 million) investment has been secured by Camalco and the rail operator Camrail out of the CFA252.6 billion (USD 433 million) budgeted for the rail equipment purchases. This shows that a greater logistics investment portion has been committed even before exports have officially started.

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Apart from the locomotives, the project's other transport plan includes an initial order of 560 open freight wagons, which will be provided by Texmaco Rail & Engineering, an Indian manufacturer.

In this agreement, inclusion of 1,040 added wagons for the next five years has also been included. This indicates that the developers of the project are looking and preparing for large-scale operations.

Also read: Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) eyes doubling Kodingamali Bauxite Mine capacity to 6 MTPA

Not only this, but the project also goes beyond the rolling stock purchases. Given this, Canyon Resources will be required to finance the connection of the mine to Cameroon’s national rail network and undertake rehabilitation work on several sections of the existing railway line to ensure efficient ore transportation to the port of Douala.

The arrival of the first locomotives marks the project's major milestone in shifting from financing and contract announcements to the operational logistics phase ahead.

For forward-thinking aluminium market insights amidst supply chain and price challenges, read "ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026."

ASI certifies Nanjing Yunhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. against Performance Standard V3.1

Wed, 13 May 2026 05:15:00 +0530

Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI) today announced that Nanjing Yunhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. has been certified against the ASI Performance Standard V3.1 (2023). The facility manufactures high-quality industrial aluminium alloy cast rods, ingots, and extruded profiles for applications including automotive lightweighting, electronics, and consumer uses.

Production activities include non-ferrous metal smelting, casting, rolling, and extrusion, supported by three aluminium alloy casting lines, one aluminium alloy ingot line, and seven extrusion lines, with annual production capacities of 150,000 tonnes of aluminium alloy rods, 50,000 tonnes of aluminium alloy ingots, and 50,000 tonnes of aluminium and magnesium extruded profiles.

The ASI Certification program was developed through an extensive multi-stakeholder consultation process and is the only comprehensive voluntary sustainability standard initiative for the aluminium value chain. The ASI Performance Standard V3 and ASI CoC Standard V2 were launched in May 2022 following a multi-year revision process.

Discover how leading aluminium companies are driving the next phase of the sustainability transition from our e-Magazine, “Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium’s Dual Commitment.”

The ASI Performance Standard V3 defines 11 principles and 62 criteria under three sustainability pillars – Environment, Social, and Governance – with the aim to address pressing sustainability issues in the aluminium value chain, such as biodiversity, Indigenous Peoples rights, circularity, and greenhouse gas emissions. The 2022 Standards and related documents underwent a minor update in 2023, accounting for editorial changes, correction of minor errors and for general clarification, culminating in the release of Performance Standard V3.1 (2023) and Chain of Custody Standard V2.1 (2023).

The independent, third-party audit of Nanjing Yunhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. was carried out by SGS-CSTC Standards Technical Services A full listing of audit findings is available in the summary audit reports, linked below. Three minor non-conformances were identified during the audit under the Criteria 1.1 Legal Compliance, 3.3a-c Payments to Governments, and 4.1b-c Environmental Life Cycle Assessment - Disclosure. Nanjing Yunhai Aluminum Co., Ltd will be implementing corrective actions, to be verified in a follow-up audit.

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Note: This article has been issued by ASI and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

LME aluminium cash offer slips to $3,639.5/t amid softer trade

Wed, 13 May 2026 05:10:00 +0530

In comparison to the previous day’s close, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price on May 12 dipped slightly. A similar movement was seen at the LME inventory level, but the live warrants and alumina platts price showed no change from the last day’s closing.

The LME cash bid declined by USD 15 per tonne or 0.4 per cent, changing from USD 3,654 per tonne to USD 3,639 per tonne. Similarly, the LME cash offer also dipped by USD 15.5 per tonne or 0.4 per cent, moving down to USD 3,639.5 per tonne from USD 3,655 per tonne.

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Looking at the forward-dated contracts, the LME 3-month bid inched down by USD 4.5 per tonne or 0.1 per cent, from USD 3,570 per tonne to USD 3,565.5 per tonne. At the same time, the LME 3-month offer finally stood at USD 3,566 per tonne from USD 3,571 per tonne on May 11, reflecting a change of USD 5 per tonne or 0.14 per cent.

The downward price movement continued in the longer-dated contracts, where both the LME December 27 bid and offer inched down by USD 8 per tonne or 0.3 per cent, with the bid shifting from USD 3,153 per tonne to USD 3,145 per tonne and the offer from USD 3,158 per tonne to USD 3,150 per tonne.

Check out the forecast of the global bauxite and alumina market till 2036, book the report “Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook”

The LME 3-month Asian Reference Price moved down by USD 17.5 per tonne or 0.5 per cent, where on May 11 it was recorded at USD 3,579.5 per tonne, which on May 12 changed to USD 3,562 per tonne.

At the inventory level, the LME opening stock shifted from 355,775 tonnes to 353,350 tonnes, showing that it moved down by 2,425 tonnes or 0.7 per cent. Concurrently, the cancelled warrants changed from 21,625 tonnes to 19,275 tonnes, reflecting a difference of 2,350 tonnes or 11 per cent.

For forward-thinking aluminium market insights amidst supply chain and price challenges, read "ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026."

The LME live warrant showed no change and on May 12, it is recorded at 331,725 tonnes.

At the same time, the LME alumina prices also remained unchanged at USD 307.15 per tonne on May 12.

Trading aluminium across borders? Find out the exact cost you need to bear for the embedded carbon in the product by using this CBAM calculator.

Chinese researchers create body armour inspired by crocodile scales

Tue, 12 May 2026 20:30:00 +0530

A group of scientists in China has turned to crocodiles for inspiration while working on a new body armour concept built around lightweight ceramic materials.

The idea came from the way crocodile scales overlap across the animal’s body. Instead of sitting in neat patterns, the scales form uneven layers that help spread force and provide protection during attacks.

The research was done at Ningbo University, led by associate research fellow Zhaoxiu Jiang. They based their design on the overlapping, asymmetrical skin of a crocodile that offers them protection against predators.

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According to the research team, the layout helped deflect projectiles during testing instead of allowing the full force to hit a single point directly.

The ceramic pieces were fixed onto an aluminium alloy backing layer with epoxy resin to hold the structure together while keeping overall weight lower than heavier armours.

Zhaoxiu Jiang said the asymmetric arrangement was able to produce projectile deflection during experiments.

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Ceramic materials were selected mainly because they combine hardness with relatively low density. Researchers believe that balance could make the system useful in situations where mobility and protection both matter.

The findings were published in Acta Armamentarii.

Although the work is still at the experimental stage, the researchers believe designs like this could eventually influence future lightweight armor systems for military or security use.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

Chinese manufacturer Dajia develops advanced aluminium anodising and spray coating

Tue, 12 May 2026 23:30:00 +0530

Foshan Dajia Electromechanical Technology Co., Ltd. is expanding its focus on automated and precision-based surface treatment systems for the aluminium industry through its Mingtu Painting division.

Based in Foshan, the company develops anodising, electrophoretic coating, electrostatic powder coating and paint spray coating systems for aluminium profile manufacturers. The company said rising global demand for high-performance aluminium surface treatments is driving greater use of automated production systems designed to improve consistency, reduce labour costs and lower material waste.

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The company’s operations combine two areas of expertise. While Dajia Electromechanical focuses on the design and manufacturing of anodising and electrophoretic coating systems, Mingtu Painting handles the planning, design and installation of powder and paint spray coating lines.

The company said its systems are based on European and American industrial technologies adapted for large-scale aluminium processing operations. The shift from semi-automatic to fully automatic coating systems has become important for manufacturers seeking better production efficiency and more uniform coating quality.

Also read: UK consortium develops modular recycling system to recover EV battery metals domestically

Its product range includes horizontal and vertical powder coating lines, shot blasting machines, RO pure water systems and environmental protection equipment. The environmental systems include acid and alkali scrubbers and wastewater treatment facilities aimed at helping manufacturers meet stricter environmental standards.

The company also provides factory planning, installation, commissioning and process support services for aluminium processing plants. Additional technologies include sulfuric acid recovery and aluminium ion removal systems designed to improve resource efficiency and reduce waste during anodising operations.

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Foshan Dajia Electromechanical Technology Co., Ltd. said it continues to work with domestic and international research institutions to develop new coating and surface treatment technologies for the aluminium sector.

The company stated that demand for integrated coating lines covering surface preparation, coating and finishing processes is increasing as aluminium manufacturers move toward more automated and interconnected production systems.

The Middle East conflict may push global aluminium price above $4000/t through 2027

Wed, 13 May 2026 02:30:00 +0530

Global aluminium prices are expected to remain above USD 4,000 per metric tonne between the third quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027, according to the Commodities Research Unit (CRU).

Paul Williams, head of aluminium value chain at CRU, said at the World Aluminium Summit in London that the expected price rise is linked to a growing supply deficit caused mainly by the conflict involving Iran.

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Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have already increased by 18 per cent this year. Benchmark aluminium prices were last reported at USD 3,559 per tonne after reaching a four-year high of USD 3,672 per tonne in mid-April.

The Middle East conflict has disrupted aluminium exports from Gulf producers and affected imports of raw materials needed by smelters in the region. Two smelters in the Gulf were hit by Iranian strikes in late March.

The Middle East normally accounts for around 9 per cent of global aluminium supply. Aluminium is widely used in transport, construction and packaging industries.

Also read: Alcoa’s aluminium business shows strong growth: expects production of up to 2.6 Mt in 2026

CRU expects the global aluminium market to face a deficit of around 1.4 million tonnes in 2026. The consultancy also estimates that aluminium production in the Gulf region could fall by around 25 per cent year-on-year.

Williams said, “We've seen deficits like this in the market before ... but this time it is going to be far more difficult," because of the scale of supply disruption and geopolitical uncertainty.

According to CRU forecasts, aluminium prices could reach around USD 4,020 per tonne in the third quarter of 2026 and rise further to about USD 4,105 per tonne in the second quarter of 2027.

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The current all-time high for aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was recorded on March 7, 2022, when prices reached USD 4,073.50 per tonne after the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Alcoa’s aluminium business shows strong growth: expects production of up to 2.6 Mt in 2026

Tue, 12 May 2026 19:30:00 +0530

Alcoa Corporation continues to benefit from strong demand in its aluminium business, supported by the packaging, electrical and transportation sectors.

The company’s aluminium production capacity has increased following the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway.

To know the long-term bauxite market forecast, book our report: “Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook”

In the first quarter of 2026, Alcoa’s Aluminium segment’s third-party sales rose to USD 2.54 billion from USD 1.91 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Aluminium product sales also increased to USD 2.58 billion from USD 1.96 billion in the same period last year.

The company said aluminium demand has continued to grow due to wider use in electric vehicles, recycled aluminium products, and rechargeable batteries.

Higher aluminium prices have also supported earnings. Prices have increased because of tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which tightened aluminium supply in the region.

Also read: JPMorgan Chase and Co. says aluminium smelters may face a longer recovery period than petroleum coke supply

Alcoa is also benefiting from US tariffs on imported aluminium. In June 2025, the US administration raised tariffs on imported aluminium to 50 per cent to support domestic producers and reduce trade imbalances. The higher tariffs contributed to stronger aluminium prices in the domestic market.

For 2026, Alcoa expects aluminium production between 2.4 million tonnes and 2.6 million tonnes, while shipments are projected between 2.6 million tonnes and 2.8 million tonnes. The company said the Aluminium segment is expected to remain its main growth driver in the near term.

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Among competitors, Constellium SE reported a 24 per cent rise in revenue in its Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products segment during the first quarter of 2026, supported by higher metal prices, though shipments fell 3 per cent.

Ryerson Holding Corporation reported revenue growth of more than 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 after its merger with Olympic Steel. The company also saw higher selling prices across aluminium products.

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Shares of Alcoa Corporation have risen 124.7 per cent over the past year. The company is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.96 times, compared with the industry average of 8.49 times. Its 2026 earnings estimate has increased 53.2 per cent over the past 60 days.

Fifth Pershing 140 aluminium superyacht launched in Italy

Tue, 12 May 2026 18:45:00 +0530

Ferretti Group has launched the fifth hull of its Pershing 140 superyacht series at the company’s Superyacht Yard in Ancona, Italy.

Unlike earlier units in the series, which used a metallic aluminium-grey finish, this version was completed in bright white following requests from the owner. The lighter theme continues inside the yacht as well, with interiors designed around softer tones and customised living spaces.

Several parts of the layout were also changed from the standard configuration. At the stern, the area typically used for storing tenders and water toys was redesigned into a social space with a central bar setup instead.

For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026"

The cockpit section now includes lounge seating, armchairs and an outdoor dining area designed for up to ten guests. According to the company, handmade decorative details were also added around the dining table.

Inside the main deck, the owner requested modifications to the full-beam suite, replacing the standard vanity arrangement with extra storage and an L-shaped sofa. The lower deck includes four guest cabins with en suite bathrooms, while additional Pullman beds were added to increase guest capacity.

The sundeck was designed as an open panoramic area featuring seating zones, a bar and an additional helm station for outdoor navigation. A Jacuzzi and sunbathing section were also installed on the foredeck.

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The Pershing 140 was developed through collaboration between architect Fulvio De Simoni, the Ferretti Group engineering team and the company’s strategic product committee led by Piero Ferrari.

The yacht is powered by four MTU engines producing 2,600 horsepower each and uses waterjet propulsion, allowing it to reach speeds of up to 35 knots.

Pershing, which became part of Ferretti Group in 1998, describes the Pershing 140 as its first fully aluminium superyacht model.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

What happens to aluminium when supply, energy and carbon collide: A market simultaneously facing scarcity, costs and power risks

Tue, 12 May 2026 17:10:00 +0530

The global primary aluminium industry has entered 2026 with a very different market condition from the one that defined the past decade. What was once a story of supply abundance, Chinese expansion and cyclical price swings is now turning into one of scarcity, geopolitical fragmentation and carbon-driven trade barriers.

At the same time, emerging supply hubs such as Indonesia and Guinea are grappling with resource protection, infrastructure tailbacks and rising power needs, while supply shocks in Mozambique, Iceland and the downstream sector are constraining the market further.

China’s 45 million tonne ceiling has become the market’s hard limit

One of the heaviest and most impactful events in the global aluminium market is the enforcement of China’s 45 million tonne primary aluminium production cap. For nearly two decades, the global balance between supply and demand was shaped by China’s relentless capacity additions, with domestic output rising from 12.6 million tonnes in 2007 to nearly 45 million tonnes by the end of 2025. By early 2026, however, that expansionary phase had effectively ended. The 45 million tonne ceiling, introduced in 2017 to curb chronic oversupply and align the sector with energy and carbon goals, has become a hard limit.

By the second quarter of 2026, China’s operating capacity will be over 45 million tonnes, with utilisation rates above 97 per cent. That leaves very little room for further domestic growth.

Instead of being the world’s incremental supply provider, it is increasingly acting as a domestic balancer and, in some cases, a net importer of primary aluminium. Net exports of primary aluminium from China have already fallen by around 700 thousand tonnes year-to-date in early 2026, creating a supply gap in international markets that had previously been filled by the Chinese surplus.

The cap has also triggered a change in corporate strategy. Chinese aluminium majors, unable to expand freely at home, are exporting capital to Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, in search of new smelting capacity. Even within China, expansion is now tied to ‘capacity replacement’, where new units can only come online if equivalent high-cost, carbon-intensive capacity is shut elsewhere.

And that has pushed the industry toward provinces such as Yunnan, where hydropower is more readily available, but it has also introduced a new risk, i.e. seasonal hydropower shortages. In 2026, drought conditions and weather-dependent electricity are themselves becoming supply-side risks.

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Indonesia’s downstream push is colliding with physical reality

If China is running into a ceiling, Indonesia is running into the limits of scale. The country’s policy to ban raw bauxite exports and force domestic refining and smelting was meant to build a new industrial base. It has succeeded in attracting capital, but in 2026, the scale of the project pipeline has become so large that even state-owned PT Inalum is calling for a moratorium on further alumina refinery and smelting expansion.

The numbers explain why. If all approved projects are completed, Indonesia’s alumina capacity would rise to over 29 million tonnes annually, up from a 2025-2026 baseline of 9 million tonnes. Smelting capacity would jump to 14.9 million tonnes from just 1.13 million tonnes, while bauxite demand would climb to 94 million tonnes from 36 million tonnes. Electricity demand would rise from roughly 16-20 TWh to 194-224 TWh.

In addition to being a rapid growth, it is also a strain on the country’s entire industrial base. At 94 million tonnes of annual bauxite extraction, Indonesia’s proven reserve base of 2.9 billion tonnes would last only about 10 years, even though the refineries and smelters under development are designed for roughly 30 years of service life.

The power requirement is even more difficult to ignore. Producing 14.9 million tonnes of aluminium per year would need as much as 194-224 TWh of electricity, compared with Indonesia’s current national generation capacity of just 150-170 TWh.

The aluminium sector alone could require more electricity than the country currently produces. That leaves little room for other industries or residential demand, and makes project delays or cancellations increasingly likely.

Guinea is tightening control just as the supply chain leans on it more heavily

Guinea remains an important source of bauxite for the aluminium chain, but 2026 has brought a sharper state grip on the sector. After the government’s 2025 campaign to clean up the mining registry, 51 mining licences and 129 exploration permits were revoked.

The biggest development came in May 2026, when Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium settled their dispute over the Guinea Alumina Corporation concession. The dispute had escalated in 2024 when exports were suspended to push EGA toward domestic refining, and EGA later impaired the asset by USD 680 million in July 2025. The May 6, 2026, settlement transferred the assets to the state-backed Nimba Mining Company and allowed bauxite trade to resume.

But the dispute is only one part of the wider picture. Guinea is still facing very large arbitration claims, including Axis Minerals’ USD 28.9 billion claim after its permit was revoked and Falcon Energy’s USD 100 million claim.

Simultaneously, the country has tightened export rules to reduce annual bauxite exports to about 150 million tonnes, down from 183 million tonnes produced in 2025. The aim is to support domestic value addition and lift prices, which fell to four-year lows of USD 32-USD 38 per tonne in early 2026.

For the rest of the supply chain, especially Chinese refineries that depend on Guinea for more than 60 per cent of imported bauxite, the consequences are direct.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

CBAM is turning carbon intensity into a pricing weapon

On January 1, 2026, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase, and aluminium exporters are now facing a fundamentally different trade regime. Importers into the EU must account for embedded emissions in primary and semi-finished aluminium and purchase carbon certificates accordingly. In the first week alone, 10,483 import customs declarations for CBAM goods were validated, showing how large the compliance apparatus already is.

The financial burden varies dramatically by production method. With CBAM certificates priced at EUR 75.36 per tonne of CO2 in Q1 2026, coal-powered smelters with carbon intensity near 15 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminium face an added cost of USD 1,300-USD 1,500 per tonne. Natural gas producers face a cost of USD 600-USD 800, hydro-powered smelters USD 175-USD 350, and renewable inert-anode producers less than USD 45.

Chinese producers, many of whom operate with carbon intensities above 15 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminium, are at the sharpest disadvantage. Industry reports estimate that between USD 8 billion and USD 12 billion of annual Chinese aluminium exports to Europe are exposed to this cost pressure. Low-carbon producers in Norway, Canada and Iceland are gaining share and premiums as green aluminium becomes a requirement rather than a preference in EU supply chains.

And CBAM is only beginning. On April 10, 2026, the European Parliament’s environment committee recommended widening coverage to 180 additional aluminium and steel-based products, including extrusions and assembled goods, by January 1, 2028.

Supply shocks in Mozambique and Iceland are tightening a market already short on flexibility

The supply picture has tightened further because of major operational disruptions. In Mozambique, South32 placed Mozal on care and maintenance from March 15, 2026, after six years of failed negotiations to secure a long-term electricity contract. Mozal, South32’s largest industrial asset in the country, accounted for nearly 30 per cent of its aluminium output in 2025 and removed about 250,000 tonnes of annual supply when it shut. The shutdown also hit Mozambique’s economy hard, with Mozal contributing an average of 49 per cent to manufacturing GDP.

Iceland faced its own shock when electrical equipment failure at Century Aluminium’s Norðurál smelter in Grundartangi in October 2025 idled two-thirds of its 320,000 tonne-per-annum capacity. That removed roughly 213,000 tonnes of annual European supply and pushed premiums to one-year highs of USD 356 per tonne.

Recovery has been quicker than expected as Century announced in April 2026 that it had energised the first pots in the second potline, with close to full production expected by the end of July 2026.

The wider issue is electricity. Smelters are now competing with AI data centres for long-term baseload power, and the pricing gap is stark. AI operators can pay more than USD 115 per MWh, while aluminium smelters typically need contracts closer to USD 40 per MWh to remain competitive. That has helped keep about 800,000 tonnes of capacity offline in the US and Europe.

Novelis fire losses show how fragile the downstream supply has become

The downstream sector has not been spared. Novelis’ Oswego facility in New York suffered two fire incidents in late 2025 in the hot mill area, disrupting a plant that supplies an estimated 40 per cent of the US automotive aluminium sheet market.

The financial damage widened sharply in 2026. Hindalco initially estimated a cash flow hit of USD 550-650 million, but by February 2026, revised that to USD 1.3-1.6 billion. The updated estimate includes repair costs, downtime, working capital effects and higher sourcing costs during recovery. Shipment losses were also revised upward to 150-200 thousand tonnes.

The damage went beyond Novelis itself. Stellantis paused Warren Truck Assembly for three weeks, Ford halted production at three plants, including Kentucky Truck, and the industry was forced to juggle supply around constrained availability. Hindalco’s USD 750 million equity infusion in December 2025 underlined how serious the disruption became.

For forward-thinking aluminium market insights amidst supply chain and price challenges, read "ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026"

The market is now pricing in a deficit

Taken together, these developments have pushed the global aluminium market into a volatile phase. JP Morgan’s April 2026 update projected a 1.9 million-tonne deficit for the year, driven in part by a 2.4 million-tonne hit to Middle Eastern supply. Wood Mackenzie sees a deficit of as much as 3 million tonnes in 2026, with global output expected to fall by 3 per cent.

Price forecasts have moved higher in response. JP Morgan sees aluminium at USD 3,500-4,000 per tonne, Morgan Stanley’s bull case sits at USD 3,700, and Wood Mackenzie is forecasting USD 3,700-USD 3,800. Even the World Bank’s USD 3,200 target and IndexBox’s USD 3,400 view reflect a market that is expected to remain under pressure.

As for the physical market, main Japanese Ports and European duty-paid premiums are climbing sharply, with Q3 settlement quotes expected to surpass USD 400-650 per tonne in some regions. Inventories are at their lowest levels since 2020, covering only a few days of global consumption, while spot markets are in steep backwardation.

Demand, meanwhile, has not disappeared. Construction may be soft, but aluminium demand tied to solar PV frames, EV components and grid upgrades continues to grow. Aluminium consumption to rise at 3-4 per cent annually over the next decade, reinforcing its status as a strategic energy-transition metal rather than just another cyclical industrial commodity.

JPMorgan: Aluminium smelters may face a longer recovery period than petroleum coke supply

Tue, 12 May 2026 17:30:00 +0530

Aluminium production outside the Gulf region could also be affected if petroleum coke shortages worsen because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

A report by JPMorgan Chase & Co. said petroleum coke, a key raw material used in aluminium production, may become a major problem for aluminium producers globally as tensions continue in the Persian Gulf region.

To know the long-term bauxite market forecast, book our report: “Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook”

According to the report, around 20 per cent of global petroleum coke supply is affected by the Strait of Hormuz disruption because petroleum coke is produced during oil refining. It warned that if shortages become severe, aluminium producers outside the Gulf could face operational problems or may have to reduce production.

The report stated, “If petroleum coke shortages become acute, additional aluminium supply outside the Gulf could face operational challenges or be forced to curtail production.”

JPMorgan Commodities Research expects the global aluminium market to be short by around 2 million tonnes in 2026.

Also read: Texmaco Rail bags $6M domestic rail equipment order from Vedanta Aluminium

The report said the aluminium market is already under pressure because of disruptions in alumina shipments to Gulf smelters and shipping route interruptions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf.

It added that continued disruption in alumina supply to Gulf smelters could result in further shutdowns in the aluminium sector.

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Apart from alumina, the petroleum coke market is also facing supply tightness. The report said both calcined petroleum coke (CPC) and green petroleum coke (GPC) markets are under pressure because of shutdowns in the Gulf region.

Furthermore, US Gulf petroleum coke prices have increased by around 20 per cent (currently USD 145 per tonne) since the conflict began, while several other fossil fuel prices have also risen sharply.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

JPMorgan warned that supply and demand imbalances could continue even if the conflict eases. According to the report, petroleum coke production could restart faster than aluminium smelting operations, as restarting smelters may take between 12 and 18 months. However, the report said the timing of recovery in both supply and demand remains uncertain.

Possible Guinea export cap adds pressure to bauxite shipping market

Tue, 12 May 2026 21:30:00 +0530

The global bauxite trade, which has been one of the strongest drivers of dry bulk shipping demand in recent years, is now facing pressure from both supply restrictions and geopolitical disruption.

Guinea, the world’s biggest exporter of seaborne bauxite, is reportedly considering a cap on exports for 2026 after rapid growth over the past few years pushed volumes to around 178 million tonnes in 2025. If introduced, the proposed limit could reduce exports to roughly 150 million tonnes, significantly below last year’s levels.

Analysts say such a move could have major consequences for the capesize market because Guinea-to-China bauxite shipments keep vessels occupied for long periods. According to analysis from Veson Nautical, a reduction to 150 million tonnes could free up around 46 capesize vessels, potentially putting downward pressure on freight rates later in 2026.

Mikkel Nordberg said the market is already dealing with oversupply conditions, while broader pressure is also coming from Chinese aluminium production limits and excess global bauxite supply.

For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026"

China’s aluminium output has expanded sharply over the past decade and has now reached the country’s official production ceiling of 44.2 million tonnes, raising questions over future demand growth for imported bauxite.

At the same time, disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of strain to aluminium supply chains in the Middle East.

According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, Gulf aluminium producers including Alba, Emirates Global Aluminium and Qatalum have been relying on temporary transshipment arrangements after direct access to raw material cargoes became more difficult.

Cargoes are reportedly being rerouted through India before being moved onward in smaller vessels and then transported overland to destinations such as Fujairah.

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While the workaround has helped keep smelters operating, analysts say the system is costly and vulnerable, especially with India’s monsoon season now creating additional handling risks for both bauxite and alumina cargoes.

Shipbroker Arrow has cautioned against assuming Guinea will adopt the strictest export limit being discussed. The company noted that exports have already crossed 86 million tonnes during the early part of 2026, making a full reduction to 150 million tonnes difficult unless shipments slow sharply later in the year.

Instead, Arrow sees a range closer to 170–190 million tonnes as more realistic if restrictions are eventually introduced.

Bauxite demand and shipping dynamics have become an increasingly important topic within the dry bulk market, with the issue receiving growing attention at industry events such as Geneva Dry.

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CBAM hits Indian aluminium export by 41%: Indian Carbon Credit Trading Scheme to reverse the slide

Tue, 12 May 2026 10:40:00 +0530

The Indian Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) signifies India’s venture towards realising sustainability goals by reducing 45 per cent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity by 2030 compared to levels since 2005 and achieving net-zero by 2070. This groundwork was laid and implemented by the Energy Conservation (Amendment) Act, 2022, and the Detailed Procedure for Compliance Mechanism (BEE, 2023).

The independent Testing, Inspection and Certification Industry in India or the TIC Council India, has recommended implementation of the CCTS to foster a reliable and globally aligned market framework that lowers compliance pressures, maintains transparency, and strengthens India’s momentum toward achieving its climate commitments.

Explore the position of aluminium at the intersection of sustainability and strategy in Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium's Dual Commitment

Impact of CBAM on Indian aluminium export

India ranked among the world’s most vulnerable economies to CBAM, with exports covered under the mechanism exceeding EUR 6 billion (USD 7.05 billion) to the EU, led primarily by iron and steel, followed by aluminium. The European Union’s (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposes carbon-related compliance obligations on imports entering the EU.

In a report by the Indian Chamber of Commerce, CBAM was defined as a mechanism that “transforms carbon from a background compliance consideration into an explicit cost component of exports, with implications for price competitiveness, margins and contractual arrangements.”

The image has been sourced from "Carbon pricing meets raw materials: CBAM’s impact on Indian industries" by the Indian Chamber of Commerce

The report presented a breakdown of the percentage shares of embedded emissions across the sectors covered under the CBAM regulations.

27 per cent of Indian exports are shipped to the EU. Year-to-date till January 2025, India shipped 18,653.8 tonnes of unwrought aluminium to the EU market, which thereafter recorded a drastic drop in YTD January 2026, when the export volume of unwrought aluminium slipped to 10,874.72 tonnes, marking a staggering difference of 41.7 per cent. The declining rate in exports indicates the adverse effects left by CBAM implementation on the Indian export industry.

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that several Indian exporters may have to reduce metal (aluminium and steel) prices by up to 15-22 per cent so that EU buyers absorb the carbon tax in their margins.

Worries among traders and exporters have intensified since the recommendations made by the European Parliament Committee on the Environment, Climate and Food Safety, that the scope of CBAM is being evaluated for further expansion. About 180 additional aluminium- and steel- based items could be included under CBAM starting January 1, 2028.

In an exclusive interview with AL Circle, Mr Alberto Monje Gama, Sustainability Policy Manager, TIC Council, regards the CBAM as more of a layered mechanism that is “complementary” to the EU’s Emissions Trading System.

“As free allowances under the EU ETS are gradually phased out and European producers face a stronger carbon price, there is a risk that production shifts to countries with lower or no carbon costs,” he explained. CBAM, therefore, “seeks to preserve a level playing field between EU manufacturers and global exporters,” pointing to the essentiality for foreign exporters like India to make note and take action.

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Why should India opt for the CCTS?

CCTS is potentially a critical mechanism to assist the nation advance toward a low-carbon industrial economy while at the same time maintaining global trade competitiveness. The framework is designed in such a manner that it lays the foundation of a structured domestic carbon market that encourages industries to reduce GHG emissions through market-based incentives rather than relying solely on regulatory mandates.

The mechanism is especially important for energy-intensive sectors such as aluminium, power, cement, steel, fertilisers, refineries, and petrochemicals, whereby international trade is largely shaped by emissions monitoring and reporting. A strong and efficient Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system is a key pillar of the mechanism, ensuring accurate GHG accounting and credibility of emissions data.

For India, the adoption of CCTS would usher in the following advantages:

Meeting its Paris Agreement commitments and realising the target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.
Paying reduced internal carbon tax rather than a higher tariff in Europe, thereby retaining competitiveness.
Companies exceeding emission reduction targets can acquire Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs), to be traded on platforms like the Indian Energy Exchange to businesses falling short of compliance requirements.
Inviting domestic and foreign investment in sustainable projects and green technology via commitment to environmental standards.
Investment in cleaner technologies, including carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) and green hydrogen, reinforcing the transition from high-emission fuel sources.
Improving the Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) compliance of Indian companies, solidifying their stance for global and sustainability investments.

Moreover, the regulation is aimed at lowering compliance burdens as it contributes to India’s accelerating progress toward national climate goals and net-zero ambitions.

How is the CCTS linked with the EU’s CBAM?

The CCTS is closely linked to CBAM, as it directly impacts carbon-intensive exports from countries like India, where 15 per cent of the total export volume is destined for the EU. Thus, India’s alignment with internationally accepted MRV and verification standards will become increasingly important for these export-oriented industries.

By implementing the CCTS, India can establish credible domestic carbon accounting systems, and exporters would be able to produce verified emissions data, thereby improving the nation’s compatibility with international carbon market standards.

For the aluminium sector, in particular, accurate emissions accounting is becoming essential because CBAM calculations increasingly examine embedded carbon emissions across the value chain.

Hence, implementing the CCTS in the Indian export framework to avoid paying heightened carbon tax at the EU borders becomes imperative. Gama, therefore, notes that “companies should prepare early to be better placed to maintain access to EU customers and differentiate themselves from competitors.”

TIC Council’s recommendations: How CCTS benefits the Indian export market

TIC Council India has proposed several recommendations to strengthen the effectiveness and credibility of the CCTS framework.

The council stresses that a reliable MRV framework is essential for ensuring transparency, integrity, and international acceptance of India’s carbon market. It recommends aligning India’s verification systems with internationally recognised frameworks such as ISO 14065, ISO 14066, ISO/IEC 17029 and UNFCCC accreditation principles.

For aluminium specifically, TIC recommends chemical or metallurgical engineering expertise, GHG accounting capability, ISO 14064 competency, as well as understanding of process-related emissions such as PFCs.

The council asserts that validation and verification agencies should operate as legally accountable entities capable of independent decision-making and contractual responsibility.

TIC Council also advocates for a globally credible framework that can minimise compliance burdens for Indian industries while safeguarding market integrity and export competitiveness.

Emphasising the need to identify the upside of the present circumstances, Mr Gama states, “CBAM also creates a strong incentive for Indian producers to improve emissions monitoring, invest in lower-carbon production, and strengthen their position in international markets where carbon performance is becoming increasingly important.”

To learn about the Indian Carbon Credit Trading Scheme in detail, download the TIC Council report.

US eases tariff pressure on Canadian and Mexican metal producers

Tue, 12 May 2026 12:30:00 +0530

The US Commerce Department has introduced a new process that would allow steel and aluminium producers from Canada and Mexico to apply for reduced Section 232 tariffs if they commit to investing in manufacturing operations in the United States. Under the proposal, eligible companies could see tariffs lowered from the current 50 per cent rate to 25 per cent, according to a notice filed in the Federal Register.

The initiative aims to encourage foreign metal producers to expand industrial capacity in the US while supporting North American automotive supply chains. To qualify, companies must already supply steel or aluminium, directly or indirectly, to US manufacturers of automobiles or medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Their exports must also meet the preferential trade requirements under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The policy follows the Trump administration’s April revision to Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which imposed a 50 per cent duty on products made predominantly of steel or aluminium, including steel coils and aluminium sheets.

The tariff measures have also prompted support initiatives in Canada. The Canadian government recently approved USD 1.5 billion in financial aid for aluminium, steel and copper companies affected by the new US tariffs that took effect on April 6. The package includes USD 1 billion through the Business Development Bank of Canada and another USD 500 million for smaller companies to ease cash flow pressures, protect jobs, encourage market diversification and stabilise supply chains.

To secure the lower tariff, companies must commit to building new facilities or expanding existing US operations producing primary steel or primary aluminium for the automotive sector. The Commerce Department said simple upgrades or reconfigurations of existing plants would not qualify.

The reduced tariff would apply only to volumes matching the projected annual production capacity of the planned US facility and for a fixed period set by the department.

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Applicants must submit documentation certified by a senior executive, such as a chief financial officer or general counsel, detailing existing Canadian or Mexican plants, product categories, US customers and raw material supply sources. Companies must also provide plans for the proposed US facility, including its location, objectives, development status and expected workforce expansion, along with commitments to milestones such as land acquisition, facility design completion, construction progress and the start of commercial production.