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Where is the aluminium downstream market headed? Tariffs, trade, AI, investments

Sat, 18 Jul 2026 07:00:00 +0530

The global aluminium downstream market has been experiencing staggering declines, mapped with price and trade volatility. Recent incidents and market trends are must-watch, to be monitored closely for navigating and decision-making about future trading, hedging and subsequent investments.

Products in the spotlight and where to buy them

The global aluminium coffee capsule market is expanding rapidly, driven by rising coffee consumption and demand for convenient, premium-quality brewing solutions. Valued at USD 2.48 billion in 2025, the market is projected to reach USD 4.5 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.1 per cent. Europe accounts for about 40 per cent of global aluminium coffee capsule consumption, followed by North America with 32 per cent.

The industry's growth is driven by specialised aluminium alloys like 8011 and 3003, which offer strength, formability and corrosion resistance required for capsule designs. The foil used for the capsule body generally has a thickness of 0.07-0.12 mm, or 70-120 μm.

Gather an in-depth understanding of the extrusion segment of the global aluminium industry with The World of Aluminium Extrusions – Industry Forecast to 2032

With global consumption reaching nearly 25 billion capsules annually, the market's future will depend not only on rising demand but also on improving circularity.

China leads the global aluminium foil market as the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter. In 2024, China produced about 4.7 million tonnes of foil, consuming 3.32 million tonnes (over 50 per cent of global demand). Its exports rose 18.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.55 million tonnes, the value reaching USD 5.7 billion. The top buyers were India, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea.

Battery-grade aluminium foil has emerged as the strongest growth segment, fuelled by China's dominant EV and lithium-ion battery industries. Demand remains steady, with China’s contribution above 60 per cent of global EV sales.

According to AL Circle's report, Aluminium Foil and its End Uses: Current Trends and Forecast till 2030, China's continued leadership reflects its ability to align industrial policy with emerging industries.

Special note: Understanding these for aluminium producers and downstream manufacturers will be critical for future investment, capacity expansion and market positioning.

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing and digital infrastructure is creating a new demand engine for aluminium. According to industry estimates, data centre infrastructure growth could take aluminium demand to around 1.1 million tonnes between 2025 and 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8-10 per cent.

Cooling systems account for the largest share of aluminium consumption at roughly 6,700 kg per MW of capacity. Servers and semiconductor hardware use around 2,700 kg per MW, with electrical and backup power systems at approximately 1,200 kg per MW. Networking and storage infrastructure require a of about 260 kg per MW.

Regionally, the Americas are projected to account for 60.8 per cent of global aluminium demand from data centres by 2030, followed by Asia-Pacific (25.8 per cent) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (13.4 per cent).

Kenanga Research expects aluminium supplier AMS Bhd to benefit from the ongoing global semiconductor equipment upcycle, driven by rising investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and wafer fabrication equipment (WFE). Kenanga projects AMS' revenue to grow 17 per cent in FY2026 and 20 per cent in FY2027, while net profit is forecast to increase 49 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively.

Growth is expected to be supported by stronger semiconductor demand, value-added processing services and expanding WFE spending, particularly outside China, alongside accelerating AI-related capital expenditure by major hyperscale technology companies.

Semiconductor-related revenue, which has doubled since 2024, is expected to contribute 55 per cent of total revenue by FY2027, up from 37 per cent in FY2025.

Key takeaway: As per the 2025 data, investors should watch closely the market trends of countries performing well in the categories of a) aluminium plates, sheets and strips; b) aluminium bars, rods and profiles; c) aluminium foil

China – exported 5.1 million tonnes
European Union – exported 1.6 million tonnes
Germany – exported 1.94 million tonnes

Why? – Since data centres have been gathering momentum, coupled with EV and solar module demand. These are ultimately leading the nations closer to the targeted Net Zero goal for a green future where aluminium semis have a key role to play.

Looking to source or sell aluminium extrusions? Discover relevant business opportunities on our B2B marketplace.

Tariffs, trade and policy changes in aluminium market dynamics

Argentina's Ministry of Economy has withdrawn the anti-dumping (AD) duties imposed on aluminium tube imports from China after completing a sunset review and a review of changed circumstances.

The ruling covers unalloyed aluminium tubes like those made from 3xxx and 6xxx series aluminium alloys, IRAM Standard 681 compliant, featuring an external diameter of 130 mm or less, including coil-form products.

The anti-dumping investigation was first initiated in May 2019, introducing a 75.52 per cent anti-dumping duty in November 2020. Having reviewed the dumping practices between July 2024 and June 2025, the duties have been revoked with immediate effect under Resolution No. 883.

Special note: While the move would ease manufacturing costs for Argentine industries like automotive and HVAC, on the flip side, competitive pressure on domestic metal producers would intensify.

The Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) and the Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) have urged the US Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to tighten domestic content rules under Sections 45Y and 48E, as aluminium extrusions for solar module frames should be manufactured in the US to qualify for federal tax credits.

Aluminium extrusion accounts for 61 per cent of production costs and 52 per cent of capital investment. Thus, incentives for imported extrusions discourage investment in domestic manufacturing, despite the US downstream aluminium industry supporting over 125,000 jobs.

CPA President Jon Toomey stated, “Extrusion is where the capital, the jobs, and the value are,” adding that incentives should not be available for products undergoing minimal processing after being imported.

Germany's aluminium exports recorded a sharp slowdown in Q1 2026, with total shipments falling 25.9 per cent Y-o-Y to 469,178 tonnes, valued at USD 2.6 billion. Among product categories, aluminium bars, rods and profiles witnessed an even steeper decline, dropping 31.1 per cent to 52,072 tonnes, worth USD 423.3 million.

The category accounted for 11.1 per cent of Germany's total aluminium exports during the quarter, extending the downward trend seen in 2025.

Despite overall aluminium exports posting modest annual growth in 2025, exports of bars, rods and profiles continued to weaken. In Q1 2026, Switzerland remained the largest importer of these products from Germany, followed by France, Austria, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic. However, Germany still holds one of the top positions among the world’s largest exporters in the segment.

Key takeaway: While these countries undergo shifts in trade dynamics, market participants should closely monitor the following project and investment announcements in the said nations:

Nikon SLM Solutions–Bosch’s 3D print of one-piece aluminium V8 engine block
Anheuser-Busch’s USD 20 million capex in Missouri for upgrade and expansion
US Customs’ auctioning 12,000 tonnes of seized Chinese aluminium
Wisconsin Aluminum Foundry named the 2026 Metal Caster of the Year

Why? – As these nations navigate market shifts, investors can benefit from the progress and updates on these incidents as to how they have been impacting the global aluminium downstream supply chain.

Unlock key insights from leading companies and experts across the aluminium ecosystem with our e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

Aluminium casting market holds 23% of downstream consumption: What will shape growth through 2032?

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 16:30:00 +0530

Aluminium casting is the process of melting aluminium and pouring it into a mould, taking a fixed shape when it cools. That shape can be an engine block, a wheel, a gearbox housing, a window frame or a battery tray for an electric car.

People pick aluminium over steel or iron for one simple reason: It is lightweight but still strong. A cast aluminium part can be up to half the weight of the same part in steel. Less weight means a car burns less fuel, an EV drives further on one charge and a plane carries more.

There are three main ways to cast aluminium and the difference between them decides cost, speed and quality:

Casting method	How it works	Best for	Typical use
Die casting	Molten aluminium is forced into a steel mould under high pressure	High volumes, thin walls, complex shapes	Car parts, electronics housings
Sand casting	Metal is poured into a mould made of packed sand	Small batches, large parts, low cost	Prototypes, heavy machinery parts
Permanent mould (gravity) casting	Metal flows into a reusable metal mould by gravity	Strong parts, medium volumes	Wheels, pistons, pump bodies

Inside die casting, there are more sub-methods you will see named in tenders and reports: High-pressure die casting (HPDC), low-pressure die casting (LPDC), gravity die casting, squeeze casting and vacuum die casting. HPDC is the workhorse of the auto industry because it is fast and repeatable.

Also read: Thrust Capital Partners acquires aluminium and titanium casting company Alphacasting

The market at a glance

The global aluminium casting market is worth about USD 106.7 billion in 2025. It is expected to touch roughly USD 110.5 billion in 2026 and grow to somewhere between USD 150 billion and USD 171 billion by 2032–2033. The yearly growth rate sits between 4.7 per cent and 6.2 per cent, depending on how each research house draws the boundary of the market.

Three numbers tell you almost the whole story:

Die casting makes up about 76 per cent of all aluminium casting by process
Transportation (cars, trucks, EVs) takes about 57.7 per cent of everything that gets cast
Asia Pacific holds about 52.1 per cent of the market, and China is the single largest country

If you remember nothing else, remember this: Aluminium casting is growing because the world wants lighter vehicles and it is slowing down only when metal prices spike. Everything below is a longer version of that one sentence.

Global aluminium consumption shares by downstream, 2025(%)

Globally in 2025, aluminium casting accounted for 23 per cent of the total downstream aluminium consumption, representing a substantial share of the aluminium value chain. As electrification, lightweighting, urbanisation and manufacturing localisation reshape demand, the market is said to be entering a period where understanding where growth will emerge and how demand patterns will shift through 2032 will be critical for informed business decisions.

What is driving growth in aluminium casting?

Growth comes down to one big force and several supporting ones, including:

Lightweighting in vehicles is the main engine

Car makers are replacing steel and iron with aluminium casting in engine blocks, transmission housings, wheels, battery enclosures and structural parts. Today, light vehicles typically make use of 30–40 per cent aluminium by relevant part count and that share is expected to climb toward 70 per cent over the coming years as emission rules get stricter.

Electric vehicles push this even harder

An EV needs a big, strong, light case to hold its battery. That single part alone has created fresh demand for large aluminium castings.

Mega-casting (gigacasting) has changed the game

Instead of welding 70 small parts together, car makers now cast one giant piece. This cuts cost, cuts weight and speeds up the line. It is one of the fastest-moving trends in the whole industry.

Aerospace and defence add steady demand

Planes and defence equipment want light, strong parts too and this sector pays a premium for quality.

Construction and machinery keep the base solid

Window frames, panels, pump bodies and industrial parts give the market a floor of demand that does not swing much.

Also read: 3D printing to replace casting? Nikon SLM, Bosch unveil one-piece aluminium V8 engine block

How is the aluminium casting market evolving?

The current aluminium casting market is evolving because of two forces: Price and energy.

Aluminium foundries run on thin margins, so they feel every swing in metal prices. When the aluminium price rises, the price of casting also rises with it, and buyers delay orders. This is not a small risk. By January 2026, aluminium for US buyers had risen by nearly 40 per cent, crossing USD 5,200 per tonne, driven by higher import tariffs and tighter global supply.

Energy is the other pressure. Melting aluminium takes a lot of power, so foundries in high-electricity-cost regions struggle to compete.

A third, quieter force is material competition. Magnesium alloys are light and strong too and in some parts they can replace aluminium. For now, aluminium stays ahead on cost and supply, but it is worth watching.

Aluminium casting prices and cost pressures in 2026

Price is the single biggest thing to watch in 2026. As noted earlier, US aluminium had climbed nearly 40 per cent to over USD 5,200 per tonne by January 2026, pushed up by tariffs and tight supply.

For an aluminium caster, this matters more than for almost anyone else in the chain, because metal is the largest input cost. When the price rises fast, three things happen: Margins shrink, long-term contracts get harder to sign, and buyers push back on orders.

This is exactly why serious casting buyers now want pricing intelligence, not just a market forecast. Knowing where aluminium casting prices, along with which industry and in which region, are heading is worth more than knowing where they have been.

Aluminium casting market by segment at a glance

By the casting process:

Die casting: This segment holds about 76 per cent, indicating the biggest share by far, because it suits high-volume auto production.
Sand casting and permanent mould casting: This segment split most of the rest.

By the end-use industry:

Transportation (automotive, EVs, commercial vehicles): This industry holds about 57.7 per cent, which is more than half the entire market.
Aerospace and defence: This industry is smaller in volume, higher in value.
Industrial machinery, construction, electrical and consumer goods: This industry reflects a steady base.

By the region:

Asia Pacific: This region holds about 52.1 per cent, serving as a clear leader.
Europe and North America: This region signifies the next two blocks, driven by autos and aerospace.
Latin America, the Middle East and Africa: These regions are smaller, but have been growing from a low base.

Also read: From seized Chinese aluminium to giga-casting and new downstream plants, global value chain shifts gear

Which regions lead the aluminium casting market?

Asia Pacific runs the market with about a 52.1 per cent share, and China sits at the top

The reason is simple: The biggest aluminium-producing countries and the biggest car factories are in this region. China, India, Indonesia and others turned into manufacturing powerhouses over the last two decades, and casting demand followed.

India

India stands out as one of the fastest-rising markets, backed by growing auto production, new foundries and strong government focus on manufacturing.

Europe and North America

These regions hold the next two spots. Their strength is high-value casting for autos and aerospace, home to names like Airbus, Boeing and the major German and US car brands.

Latin America, the Middle East and Africa

These regions are deemed to be smaller given today’s market. Africa mostly exports raw aluminium rather than casting it locally, which leaves room for future growth.

Who are the major aluminium casting companies?

The market is a mix of large integrated aluminium producers and specialist foundries and these are the names you will see throughout:

Nemak: A global specialist in aluminium castings for engines, transmissions and body structures, supplying most major car brands.
Ryobi: A large die-casting group with plants across Japan, the US, China, Thailand and beyond.
Rheinmetall Automotive: German group with strong casting operations for vehicle parts.
Alcoa and Rio Tinto: Giant integrated producers active from mining through casting.
Ahresty, Dynacast, Endurance, Sundaram-Clayton and others: The regional and specialist casters serving the auto sector.

The pattern is clear: Whoever serves the car industry well tends to lead, because transportation is where most of the aluminium casting goes.

Recycled aluminium and sustainability niche in casting

Recycled or secondary aluminium is becoming central to casting and not just a side story. Melting aluminium scrap uses a fraction of the energy needed to make new metal from ore, which cuts both cost and carbon.

Two forces are pushing this: Tighter emission rules, especially in Europe and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which puts a carbon cost on imported aluminium.

For foundries, using more recycled metal is now both a green move and a smart financial one. Any casting strategy built for 2032 has to plan for a higher share of recycled feedstock.

What is the outlook for aluminium casting to 2032?

This growth trajectory is being underpinned by long-term shifts across manufacturing, transportation, energy systems and infrastructure, creating new demand dynamics and strategic opportunities for businesses across the aluminium casting value chain.

By 2032, the market is expected to sit somewhere around USD 150–170 billion. The pull comes from EVs, mega-casting and stricter emission rules that keep pushing metal into vehicles. The drag comes from metal-price swings and energy costs.

The winners over the next few years will be the casters who can do three things at once: Hold quality high, keep costs low even when metal prices jump and use more recycled aluminium. Buyers who understand plant economics and pricing, not just the headlines of the current market, will make better calls.

Go deeper with the AL Circle’s upcoming report

Our upcoming report, “Global Aluminium Casting Market 2026–2032”, provides the market intelligence that today’s businesses need but is not available elsewhere, such as plant economics, alloy segmentation, pricing intelligence and supply-chain analysis and strategic recommendations, which are built for people who buy, sell or invest in casting.

Make smarter business decisions with insights on:

High-growth end-use sectors driving future aluminium casting demand
Regional market opportunities through 2032
Emerging applications creating new revenue potential
Commercially viable casting processes for long-term competitiveness
Investment and plant economics to support expansion decisions
Sustainability best practices shaping the next phase of aluminium casting

… and much more!

Want to see it first? Request a free sample of the report and one of our research specialists will walk you through it. Still confused? Take a 45-minute consultation with our research team.

Also read: Final Call: Pre-book the Market Intelligence Every Aluminium Casting Business Needs

Some frequently asked questions that the report addresses

Q. What will the aluminium casting market be worth by 2032?

A. Most forecasts point to USD 150–170 billion by the early 2030s, at a growth rate between 4.7 per cent and 6.2 per cent a year.

Q. What is the biggest casting process?

A. Die casting accounts for about 76 per cent of the market.

Q. Which industry uses the most aluminium castings?

A. Transportation accounts for about 57.7 per cent, mainly because of cars, EVs and commercial vehicles.

Q. Which region leads the market?

A. Asia Pacific holds about a 52.1 per cent share, and China holds the position of the largest country.

Q. What is the difference between die casting and sand casting?

A. Die casting forces metal into a steel mould under high pressure and suits high-volume, complex parts. Sand casting pours metal into a sand mould and suits small batches and large, low-cost parts.

Q. What is mega-casting or gigacasting?

It is casting one very large part instead of welding many small ones together. It cuts weight, cost and assembly time, and it is one of the fastest-growing trends in the auto industry.

Q. Why are aluminium prices important for casters?

A. Metal is a caster's highest cost, and when aluminium prices rise sharply, as they did in early 2026, crossing USD 5,200 per tonne for US buyers, margins shrink and orders slow.

Q. Who are the leading aluminium casting companies?

A. Nemak, Ryobi, Rheinmetall Automotive, Alcoa, Rio Tinto, Ahresty, Dynacast and others, most of them tied closely to the auto industry.

Q. Is recycled aluminium used in casting?

A. Yes, and its share is rising fast. Recycled metal uses far less energy, cuts carbon and helps manage costs under schemes like the EU’s CBAM.

PNNL's Kate Rader and Aashish Rohatgi win 2026 ASM Howe Medal for aluminium manufacturing research

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 10:20:00 +0530

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) materials scientists Aashish Rohatgi and Kate Rader have been awarded the 2026 ASM International Henry Marion Howe Medal for research that advances scientific understanding of aluminium manufacturing. The award recognises the best paper published in Metallurgical and Materials Transactions and marks the culmination of nearly a decade of work on how ultrasonic processing affects aluminium solidification.

The research began in 2017, when Rohatgi set out to answer a challenging question: what happens inside aluminium castings when ultrasound is applied during solidification? While earlier studies had compared materials before and after processing, the underlying mechanisms remained largely unknown.

Four years later, Rader joined PNNL as a postdoctoral researcher in Rohatgi's team and helped lead a first-of-its-kind study that revealed how ultrasonic processing influences aluminium solidification in real time. The work advances scientific understanding of metal processing while supporting PNNL's mission to develop reliable manufacturing technologies for the automotive industry.

Working with collaborators at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), the team secured highly competitive beamline access at the Advanced Photon Source and developed specialised experimental hardware and procedures. Rader played a key role in planning and carrying out the experiments, collecting data during four days of synchrotron beamtime while managing the logistical and technical challenges of the novel in situ study.

From experiment to award-winning research

The team left ANL in 2022 with an enormous dataset containing thousands of measurements. Rader led the analysis effort, working with collaborators Andrew Chuang, Dileep Singh and Jonova Thomas from ANL, along with Mark Bowden and Alan Schemer-Kohrn from PNNL. By 2025, the manuscript was ready for peer review.

The study provided one of the first real-time views of ultrasonic processing during metal solidification, helping researchers identify how and when ultrasound influences microstructural development. The findings establish a stronger scientific foundation for future ultrasonication-assisted manufacturing processes while offering practical guidance for industrial applications.

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Their paper, In-Situ Synchrotron X-Ray Diffraction of Ultrasonic Microstructural Refinement During Solidification in a Commercial Al-Si-Mg Alloy, was first selected as an Editor's Choice article, placing it among the journal's most notable publications. Reviewers described it as "an excellent and well-written study that adds new knowledge and insights to the field."

Established in 1923, the Henry Marion Howe Award is ASM International's oldest award and recognises the best paper published in a given volume of Metallurgical and Materials Transactions. Rader and Rohatgi's paper will be highlighted at the IMAT 2026 conference in Quebec City, Canada, in September.

Beyond the recognition, the research supports ongoing efforts to increase the use of recycled aluminium in automotive applications, helping reduce costs and strengthen domestic supply chains. It also highlights PNNL's ability to combine advanced characterisation techniques with applied research to address industry challenges and accelerate the development of emerging technologies.

The work was funded by the Transportation Technologies Office within the Department of Energy's Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation through the Light Metals Core Program. The research used resources at the Advanced Photon Source, a Department of Energy Office of Science user facility at ANL.

Unlock key insights from leading companies and experts across the aluminium ecosystem with our e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

Downstream off-season demand is weak, while geopolitical conflicts support consolidation in aluminium prices

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 06:15:00 +0530

Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2608 contract closed at RMB 23,255 per tonne, up RMB 90 or 0.39 per cent from the previous trading day's settlement price. It opened at RMB 23,190 per tonne and fluctuated in a range of RMB 23,180-23,285 per tonne. Prices ran above the MA5 (23,185.00) and MA10 (23,094.00) but below the MA30 (23,411.33) and MA60 (24,031.00).

The short- to medium-term moving averages displayed a bearish alignment and steadily converged lower, highlighting a pronounced consolidation on a subdued note, with resistance building at each moving average overhead. On the MACD indicator, DIF (-196.6528) stood above DEA (-292.7758), and the MACD red bar registered 192.2462, suggesting some easing of bearish momentum. The recommended core trading range for SHFE aluminium is RMB 22,800-23,500 per tonne.

The LME aluminium 3M contract settled at USD3,172 per tonne, down 0.16 per cent. Prices ran above the MA5 (3,165.30) and MA10 (3,157.15) but below the MA30 (3,262.47) and MA60 (3,433.06). The short- to medium-term moving averages also maintained a bearish alignment and converged lower, signalling a clear consolidation on a subdued note with significant resistance overhead.

On the MACD indicator, DIF (-67.1167) remained above DEA (-86.2472), and the MACD red bar stood at 38.2611, indicating waning bearish momentum and a slowdown in the decline. The recommended core trading range for LME aluminium is USD 3100-3,200 per tonne.

Macro front: Sources revealed that Iran told Yemen's Houthi forces to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks Iran's power grid. Iran's military stressed that the Strait of Hormuz issue is a "red line" for Iran and will not be reopened under US pressure. If hostile actions against Iran persist, the conflict will expand into new dimensions.

US Central Command announced that US forces began a new round of airstrikes against Iran at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on July 16, marking the fifth consecutive night of US strikes. Some Iranian airports, bridges, and railway hubs were hit. White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that Iran is still in talks with the US and hopes to reach a deal as it suffers "devastating blows." Leavitt said the recent US strikes stemmed from Iran's violation of the memorandum of understanding.

Dallas Fed President Logan called for higher interest rates, noting that inflation does not appear to be sustainably returning to the central bank's 2 per cent target. A moderate rate increase would better balance the outlook and risks under the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment.

Fundamentals: On the supply side, the proportion of liquid aluminium in China's aluminium production rose 0.37 percentage points M-o-M this week, mainly due to strong performance in aluminium billet processing fees, which boosted the share of direct liquid aluminium supply and further reduced the amount of aluminium ingot casting. Outside China, aluminium supply is expected to continue rising amid ongoing production ramp-ups at new projects and production resumptions.

But overall, the near-term destocking trend of global aluminium ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse. On the demand side, the downstream processing industry is in the traditional consumption off-season, with divergent sector performance but predominantly under pressure. The operating rate of downstream aluminium industry leaders recorded 61.3 per cent, down 0.6 percentage points W-o-W. As the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered, downstream export margins shrank.

With orders on hand being fulfilled, the support from exports for demand is expected to weaken. On the inventory side, China's aluminium social inventory continued its destocking trend this week. As of Thursday, China's aluminium ingot social inventory destocked by 54,000 tonnes W-o-W and by 23,000 tonnes from Monday. Aluminium prices mainly moved sideways this week, downstream demand was sluggish, buying sentiment was somewhat cautious, and warehouse withdrawals slowed down.

Primary aluminium market: In early trading, the trading centre of the SHFE aluminium 2606 contract was at a lower level compared to the same period the previous trading day. Affected by the off-season, the market purchase sentiment remained weak today, dominated by just-in-time procurement, with ample market liquidity.

Market transactions were made between parity and a discount of RMB 20 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium 08 contract. The selling sentiment index in east China was 3.11 today, flat M-o-M; the purchase sentiment index was 3.04, up 0.04 M-o-M.

Trading sentiment in the central China market recovered slightly again today compared to the previous two days; downstream processing enterprises showed initial fear of high prices, while their purchase willingness improved markedly. Meanwhile, traders' hedging buying sentiment persisted, with concentrated, large-volume purchases driving suppliers to hold prices firm.

Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around a discount of RMB 140-160 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium 08 contract. The selling sentiment index in central China was 2.81 today, up 0.02 M-o-M; the purchase sentiment index was 2.24, up 0.02 M-o-M.

Secondary aluminium materials: SMM A00 spot aluminium price closed at RMB 23,180 per tonne today, down RMB 90 per tonne from the previous trading day. The overall aluminium scrap market remained stable and unchanged.

In terms of price spreads, on July 15, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was RMB 2,072 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 758 per tonne.

Supply-side constraints continued to strengthen, with the impact of the reverse invoicing policy further deepening. News came from Shandong province about a pause on reverse invoicing starting in July, while production cuts and shutdowns spread among small and medium-sized scrap utilisation enterprises in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, and other regions, further increasing the scarcity of compliant, invoiced aluminium scrap.

On the import front, due to a 1-3 month shipping lag, arrivals of high-quality overseas supply, already scarce due to a previously inverted price spread, remained low from June to August. Meanwhile, the UAE's aluminium scrap export ban and EU tariff hikes further tightened the overseas aluminium scrap supply.

The aluminium scrap market is expected to maintain a narrow sideways trend this week, shaped by demand suppression and cost support, with the mainstream shredded aluminium tense scrap (aluminium content-based pricing) trading range around RMB 19,900-20,500 per tonne. The pullback in spot primary aluminium prices limited the extent of further narrowing in the price spread between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap.

The economic advantage of aluminium scrap over primary aluminium is unlikely to disappear in the short term, and support for aluminium scrap prices from the demand side remains intact. If aluminium prices continue to decline further, the substitution effect of primary aluminium for aluminium scrap will accelerate and become more evident.

Secondary aluminium alloy: Spot market: ADC12 market quotes remained generally stable today, with enterprises showing limited willingness to adjust prices. On one hand, aluminium prices fluctuated within a narrow range recently, and the cost side lacked clear drivers, keeping market quotes relatively steady.

On the other hand, as the traditional consumption off-season deepened, downstream end-users such as the automotive sector were gradually affected by high-temperature holidays, leading to a phased pullback in orders. Destocking expectations for the second half of the month gradually strengthened, weakening demand support.

However, in the current market environment, both sellers and buyers maintained a cautious stance with limited willingness to compete on price, and low-price shipments had a relatively limited effect on improving transactions. Consequently, the market was primarily characterised by purchasing as needed and concluding deals at stable prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways.

Comprehensive outlook: With repeated turmoil in the Middle East, persistent concerns over interest rate hikes, and ongoing supply-side recovery, the destocking trend remains difficult to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminium prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term.

Future attention should focus on progress in Middle Eastern production resumptions and the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminium ingot inventory changes, as well as domestic downstream processing orders and aluminium semis export data.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Novelis Korea executive to lead KONMA's new Aluminium Committee

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 22:30:00 +0530

Novelis Korea has announced that Choi Min-young, the company's Director of Government Affairs, has been appointed the inaugural chair of the Aluminium Committee of the Korea Nonferrous Metals Association (KONMA).

KONMA is an industry association that supports the development of South Korea's nonferrous metals industry and works to improve the competitiveness of its member companies. The Aluminium Committee was established this year to promote the sustainable development of the aluminium industry and address common priorities across the sector.

According to Novelis, the committee will focus on developing policy recommendations, supporting supply chain stability and responding to evolving global trade and environmental regulations. It also aims to strengthen the competitiveness of South Korea's aluminium industry while promoting a circular economy through greater use of recycled aluminium.

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Commenting on the appointment, Choi Min-young said aluminium is a key material for carbon neutrality and the circular economy. He added that the committee will work to strengthen the global competitiveness of South Korea's aluminium industry by expanding can-to-can and closed-loop recycling.

The company noted that aluminium demand is expected to continue growing across sectors including electric vehicles, defence, aerospace, rechargeable batteries, construction and energy infrastructure, where the material is increasingly used to support energy transition and advanced manufacturing.

Novelis also highlighted that aluminium can be recycled repeatedly without losing its properties, while recycling requires only 5 per cent of the energy needed to produce primary aluminium.

Although South Korea collects approximately 97 per cent of used aluminium beverage cans, the country's can-to-can recycling rate stands at 37 per cent, according to Novelis. The Aluminium Committee plans to support policy initiatives aimed at improving high-quality aluminium recycling and strengthening the country's resource circulation system.

Discover expert perspectives and comprehensive coverage of the aluminium value chain in the e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

Canadian aluminium extruders seek trade protection amid tariffs and import pressure

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:30:00 +0530

Canada's aluminium extrusion industry is calling on the federal government to introduce trade protection measures, arguing that rising imports and US tariffs are placing increasing pressure on domestic manufacturers even as aluminium prices remain strong.

Although aluminium has been one of the best-performing base metals over the past year, extrusion companies—which process aluminium billets into products used in construction, automotive, industrial equipment and other applications—say business conditions have deteriorated.

Mike Flynn, President of Apel Extrusions Ltd., said the sector has already lost around 500 jobs since March 2025, representing about 12.5 per cent of its estimated 4,000-person workforce. He warned that another 800 jobs could be lost by the end of the year without policy intervention.

Canada is the world's fourth-largest aluminium producer, accounting for around 4.5 per cent of global output. The country produced 3.3 million tonnes of aluminium in 2024, with approximately three million tonnes exported, 90 per cent of which went to the United States, according to the Aluminum Association of Canada.

While Canadian smelters continue to benefit from low-carbon hydropower and higher aluminium prices, extrusion companies say they have been hit harder by US trade measures. The sector exports about 40 per cent of its products to the United States, making it particularly vulnerable to tariffs.

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US tariffs on aluminium products were introduced at 25 per cent in March 2025, increased to 50 per cent in June 2025, and later expanded to apply to the full value of aluminium-containing products rather than only their aluminium content.

Industry representatives say the tariffs have significantly reduced cross-border business and are now seeking support from the Canadian government rather than relying solely on trade cases before the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT).

The federal government said it continues to assess measures to support Canada's aluminium sector through the Aluminum Trade Monitoring Task Force, including promoting domestic production under the Buy Canadian policy and imposing tariffs on certain aluminium imports containing Chinese-smelted and cast aluminium.

Extrusion companies are also raising concerns over trade diversion, claiming that imports from countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have increased sharply following US tariff measures.

According to industry data, compared with average monthly export volumes in 2023 and 2024, aluminium extrusion exports to Canada have risen by 60 per cent from Vietnam, 263 per cent from Thailand, 43.5 per cent from Turkey and 105.6 per cent from the UAE.

Industry representatives are calling for trade measures similar to those introduced for Canada's steel sector, arguing that they are seeking fair market conditions rather than financial support.

However, some analysts caution that tariffs and import quotas could increase costs for downstream manufacturers, potentially affecting Canada's broader industrial competitiveness.

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Aluminium alloy futures consolidate and edge up, spot market weakens with prices temporarily stable

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:10:00 +0530

Futures: The aluminium alloy 2609 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at RMB 22,910 per tonne in the morning session. It reached an intraday high of RMB 23,055 per tonne and a low of RMB 22,845 per tonne. As of 14:00, it closed at RMB 23,020 per tonne, up 115 points, or 0.50 per cent, from the settlement price. Prices dipped to the RMB 22,845 per tonne support level early in the session, and then bulls stepped in, driving the market to consolidate and rise.

The intraday candlestick held above the average price throughout, with bullish sentiment dominant. The 4-hour candlestick remained above the DKX lines, while the KD indicator stayed in a neutral-to-bullish zone. Trading volume expanded notably, open interest edged up, and a small amount of capital flowed in. In the near term, RMB 22,845 per tonne provides strong support, while RMB 23,055 per tonne represents short-term resistance. The futures market has a bullish bias, and the overall trend is a rebound from lows.

Spot: ADC12 market quotes were generally steady today, with enterprises showing little inclination to adjust prices. On one hand, recent aluminium price fluctuations have been limited, and the cost side lacks a clear driver, keeping offers relatively stable. On the other hand, as the traditional consumption off-season deepens, downstream end-users such as automakers are gradually affected by high-temperature holidays, leading to phased pullbacks in orders.

In particular, expectations of production cuts have strengthened in the second half of the month, weakening demand support. Nevertheless, under current market conditions, both sellers and buyers remain cautious, with limited willingness to compete on price. Low-price sales have a limited effect on improving trading volumes. Overall, the market is dominated by purchases on an as-needed basis and stable prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range.

Import: Overseas ADC12 offers were in the USD 3,050-USD 3,190 per tonne range. Affected by slightly lower overseas offers, firm domestic prices, and a stronger Chinese yuan against the US dollar, the cost pressure on imports has eased. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and the immediate import loss narrowed further to RMB 860 per tonne.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

China aluminium rod market eyes Q3 lull after H1 rally, grid demand seen supporting Q4

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0530

China's aluminium rod processing fees staged a stair-step rally in the first half of 2026, peaking near record highs in June as tight spot supply collided with a surge in export orders, but the momentum faltered in early July as softening LME prices shut the arbitrage window, pointing to a weaker start for the second half.

Processing fee trends

In H1 2026, domestic aluminium rod processing fees exhibited bottom oscillation followed by a stepwise ascent. Overall, the processing fee was significantly higher than the same period last year. However, the price trajectory diverged from 2025, when peaks occurred during the April-May consumption peak season. This year, fees began a stair-step climb in early May, culminating at the year's high point by the end of June.

At the start of the year, fees bottomed out amid weak supply and demand. The traditional off-season, coupled with high aluminium prices, prompted widespread shutdowns at downstream mills, leading to a sharp demand contraction. To recoup capital, the sellers engaged in distressed selling at lower prices. Following the Chinese New Year, fees saw a recovery driven by a modest demand revival. In Henan, tight supply-demand dynamics briefly pushed fees to RMB 400-500 per tonne. However, elevated aluminium prices subsequently suppressed new orders, triggering a secondary dip in fees.

Post-Q2, spot market liquidity contracted severely due to a surge in export orders and long-term contract deliveries. Spot shortages became acute, driving fees sharply higher. In some regions, premiums of approximately RMB 200 per tonne were added to nominal quotes, while persistent supply tightness led to high quoted prices unsupported by transaction volume. Coupled with a significant retreat in aluminium prices, fees reached their annual peak via a stepwise rally by late June, with fees in some consumption hubs frequently exceeding RMB 1,000 per tonne.

Nevertheless, as the LME aluminium price weakened in late June, export profits turned negative, cooling overseas orders. With domestic demand failing to pick up, fees plummeted in early July, entering a downtrend.

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Inventory trends

Throughout H1 2026, overall inventory levels were markedly lower than in 2025, remaining at low levels for most of the period. The post-Chinese New Year inventory peak in 2025 approached 100,000 tonnes, whereas the 2026 peak stood at only around 38,000 tonnes, near 50 per cent year-on-year plunge.

This reflects downstream enterprises adopting a more cautious pre-holiday stocking strategy, avoiding significant capital lock-up. It also indicates that upstream producers maintained conservative production schedules during the holiday, effectively curbing inventory accumulation at the source.

Entering Q2, inventory saw two brief, pulse-like rebounds during the April demand validation period and the May export order rush. However, the destocking pace was decisive, accelerating to historic lows by the end of June.

Supply analysis

In recent years, domestic aluminium rod capacity has maintained a steady expansion, primarily concentrated in core production regions such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi.

According to Mysteel's sampled producers, as of the end of June 2026, total domestic aluminium rod capacity reached approximately 8.89 million tonnes, representing an increase of 560,000 tonnes compared to 2025. New capacity commissioned during the year was mainly concentrated in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Sichuan.

According to Mysteel's survey, national aluminium rod output in June 2026 was 466,500 tonnes, up 15.10 per cent year-on-year and 4.34 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative output for January-June 2026 reached 2.38 million tonnes, an increase of 4.53 per cent over the same period last year.

In H1 2026, overall aluminium rod output demonstrated a pattern of moderate expansion, achieving positive Y-o-Y growth at all stages except during the Chinese New Year holiday. During the holiday period, squeezed by persistently high aluminium prices and weakening processing fees, profit margins for aluminium rod enterprises narrowed.

Some small and medium-sized enterprises halted production and commenced holidays earlier than usual, with extended shutdown durations leading to a Y-o-Y decline in output for that specific stage. However, production quickly rebounded post-holiday alongside recovering downstream demand. Particularly in Q2, driven strongly by incremental export orders, capacity was further unlocked, propelling steady overall output growth.

In H1 2026, the overall operating rate of the aluminium rod market maintained an upward trajectory following the Chinese New Year. According to Mysteel data, the average operating rate for January-June 2026 was 55.33 per cent. Excluding production cuts during the holiday period, rates consistently exceeded 50 per cent in other periods, with a notable recovery in overall utilisation. Some enterprises operated at full capacity, especially in June, where the operating rate saw a significant Y-o-Y increase driven by export orders.

Demand analysis

In H1 2026, domestic aluminium rod demand was anchored in power cables, new energy, energy storage, and exports. Grid construction remained the cornerstone of consumption. The State Grid's fixed asset investment for the 15th Five-Year Plan period totals approximately RMB 4 trillion (averaging roughly RMB 800 billion annually), while the China Southern Power Grid allocated RMB180 billion for fixed asset investment in 2026.

The increased spending from both grid giants, coupled with progress in UHV transmission and distribution network projects and the steady fulfilment of tender orders, effectively underpinned domestic demand. New energy and export markets acted as incremental demand drivers, filling traditional consumption gaps during the first half. Meanwhile, the automotive light-weighting trend and accelerated UHV grid rollout spurred sustained offtake for automotive wiring harnesses and power cable rods.

Additionally, the export arbitrage window opened periodically in Q2. Overseas demand for grid infrastructure and new energy released firmly as utility projects entered a concentrated construction phase between March and May. This coincided with a widening internal-external price spread. Furthermore, the 13 per cent export tax rebate amplified profit margins, prompting traders to accelerate shipments. Consequently, monthly export volumes surged month-on-month. This effectively offset the pressure from softer domestic consumption.

According to the General Administration of Customs of People's Republic of China, China exported 63,900 tonnes of aluminium wire and cable in May 2026, up 131.4 per cent M-o-M and 121.6 per cent Y-o-Y. Total exports for January-May 2026 reached 171,100 tonnes, a 53.14 per cent Y-o-Y increase.

Outlook for H2 2026

Based on H1 trends and early-July movements, market focus is expected to revert to fundamentals in H2, with processing fees likely following a "down-then-up" trajectory.

Early Q3 may face periodic pressure. The combination of the traditional July-August off-season and the conclusion of the prior export order rush, leaving a short-term lack of fresh demand catalysts, will likely keep fees in a weak, oscillating pattern.

Entering Q4, however, seasonal pressures are expected to wane. Sustained releases of long-cycle orders from the State Grid and other major players should provide strong support. Downstream cable producers are anticipated to initiate concentrated year-end stockpiling and replenishment. Against this backdrop of improving marginal demand, processing fees are expected to stabilise at the bottom and stage a corrective rebound.

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Conclusion

The H1 2026 aluminium rod market was defined by a structural shift in supply-demand dynamics, as historically low inventories and a robust export arbitrage window drove processing fees to year-to-date highs despite macroeconomic headwinds.

While the late-June collapse in export margins has triggered a necessary correction entering July, the market's foundation remains intact. Looking ahead, any near-term weakness during the traditional summer lull is likely to be temporary. The market is poised for a potential recovery in Q4, underpinned by the inelastic demand from State Grid tenders and mandatory year-end inventory replenishment.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel

Hydro to shut down Delhi, Louisiana extrusion facility in 2027

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 07:00:00 +0530

Hydro Extrusion USA will close its aluminium extrusion facility in Delhi, Louisiana, next year, with operations scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. The closure will result in the loss of 226 jobs, according to a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filed with the Louisiana Workforce Commission in June. The layoffs are expected to take effect on March 31, 2027.

The Delhi facility is one of two extrusion plants in the United States that Hydro plans to shut down. The second plant is located in the City of Industry, California. Together, the closures will affect around 350 employees.

Hydro said, “Both sites face low capacity utilisation and require significant capital investment to meet operational standards.” As part of the restructuring, production from the two plants will be transferred to other facilities within the company's North American extrusion network.

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The company has already begun upgrading and retooling the receiving plants, with the production transfer expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2027. Following the closure of the Delhi plant, site activities will continue through a wind-down period extending into the third quarter of 2027.

Hydro said it has started discussions with employees regarding transition packages and other support measures. Affected workers are also being encouraged to apply for available positions at other Hydro facilities across North America.

The Delhi plant, established in 1983, provides aluminium extrusion, machining, fabrication and finishing services to customers in Louisiana and other parts of the southern United States.

According to Hydro, the plant closures form part of its strategy to strengthen its long-term position in the US market by consolidating operations and focusing future investments on other locations within its North American manufacturing network.

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Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:35:00 +0530

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