AlCircle: Latest primaryaluminium news update

From Guinea to the Gulf: Policy shifts, alumina surplus and middle east disruptions split the value chain

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 04:30:00 +0530

Over the past two weeks, the aluminium value chain has unfolded in fragments rather than a single, linear move. What starts as policy shifts and price pressure in bauxite moves through a well-supplied alumina market, before ending in a sudden supply shock in primary aluminium. Each layer is reacting to a different trigger-but together, they are reshaping the balance across the system.

Bauxite: export controls, price signals and new capacity plans

At the upstream end, supply discipline and expansion are moving side by side. Nigeria has stepped forward with plans to build a 1 million tonne alumina refinery, backed by USD 1.3 billion in financing, with expectations of producing 19 million tonnes over 20 years and contributing USD 1.2 billion annually to GDP. The full story is here.

At the same time, Guinea-Conakry is tightening its grip on exports. After shipping 183 million tonnes in 2025-up 25 per cent year-on-year-and targeting 200 million tonnes for 2026, the country is now set to cut volumes from April to stabilise a market where prices have already fallen 25–35 per cent from last year’s highs. Nearly 70 per cent of its exports continue to move to China, keeping demand concentrated even as supply risks grow. Read more.

Pricing trends reflect this tension. FOB Guinea bauxite stood at USD 33–38 per dry metric tonne on March 27, up slightly week-on-week but still down USD 8–11 per dmt since December. Industry views suggest that if exports rise unchecked towards 240 million tonnes, prices could slip further to around USD 50 per tonne, putting additional pressure on producers.

Bauxite supply: structural gaps and emerging players

Beyond immediate policy moves, deeper supply imbalances remain visible. Brazil continues to hold around 1.7 billion tonnes of reserves, yet production has remained unchanged at 30-33 million tonnes for five years, even as exports rose 20 per cent in 2025-highlighting a persistent gap between potential and output. A similar pattern is visible in its rare earth sector, pointing to broader structural constraints. Click here.

Meanwhile, new supply is being lined up to capture opportunity. Canyon Resources is advancing its Minim Martap project in Cameroon, with its first shipment targeted for September, positioning itself within a market still searching for high-grade bauxite.

Alumina: steady supply keeps prices contained

As the story moves downstream, the tone shifts. Alumina continues to reflect a well-supplied market, with prices unable to break past USD 315 per tonne. From USD 321 per tonne in October 2025, prices have eased to around USD 306.8 by the end of Q1 2026, moving within a narrow band despite volatility elsewhere. Click for more.

Operationally, production remains strong. NALCO reported an 11.2 per cent increase in alumina output and a 30.7 per cent rise in sales, supported by higher bauxite handling of over 7.7 million tonnes. Alumina hydrate output stood at 2.3 million tonnes, while calcined alumina rose 11.16 per cent to 2.275 million tonnes, with aluminium production steady at 472,000 tonnes.

Indonesia reflects another layer of imbalance. While alumina output rose from 1.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2025, and bauxite production edged up to 10 million tonnes, the pace of refining and smelting expansion is beginning to outstrip upstream supply, exposing gaps despite large reserves.

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Disruptions: conflict begins to redirect flows

Even within a stable alumina market, disruptions have started to shift material flows. Following strikes linked to the US–Israel–Iran tensions, Emirates Global Aluminium has moved to offload alumina cargoes after impacts on its smelting operations near Abu Dhabi.

What began as a disruption quickly escalated into a direct supply shock. Read the full story.

Primary aluminium: attacks, price surge and market reaction

On March 28, 2026, Iranian missile and drone attacks hit major aluminium facilities in the UAE and Bahrain, including Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter and Aluminium Bahrain. The incident brought geopolitical risk directly into a region that supplies around 9 per cent of global aluminium, marking a shift in how supply security is being viewed. Read here.

Markets reacted almost immediately. Aluminium prices climbed from USD 2,986 per tonne to USD 3,585 per tonne by March-end, with momentum accelerating through March and reaching USD 3,520 per tonne on March 13. Click here.

Equities followed the same direction. Alcoa Corporation rose as much as 11.8 per cent intraday before closing 8.23 per cent higher at USD 63.22. Press Metal Aluminium Holdings gained 6.3 per cent, while Century Aluminum advanced around 10 per cent, reflecting tightening supply expectations.

Shifting strategies in a tightening market

As prices rise, companies are adjusting course. Vedanta Limited has extended its demerger deadline to June 30, 2026, citing pending regulatory approvals, while continuing to push large-scale investments in Odisha worth INR 1.8 lakh crore and highlighting over 5 lakh jobs created.

At the same time, RUSAL is redirecting shipments from China to Japan and other Asian markets, as geopolitical tensions begin to redraw trade routes and influence regional premiums.

A critical metal under pressure

Across major economies-including the US, EU, UK, Canada and Africa-aluminium continues to gain ground as a critical mineral, tied closely to industrial growth, defence and decarbonisation. In the United States alone, the sector supports around 400,000 jobs and contributes USD 228 billion to the economy. Read more.

Over the past two weeks, however, the bigger takeaway is not just its importance—but how quickly different parts of its value chain can move out of sync, turning a connected system into a series of diverging pressures.

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Canada emerges as a winner although US tariffs leave mark on jobs and regional economy

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 02:30:00 +0530

Canada’s economy has handled a year of US tariffs better than expected, but the impact has not been equal across sectors and regions, according to a report by Royal Bank of Canada (RBC).

Industries such as steel, aluminium, copper, auto parts, softwood lumber, and some consumer goods have been the most affected. In 2025, steel product exports dropped by 30 per cent, hurting company revenues and hiring plans. Firms are cutting new hires, cutting overtime, and delaying training programs. Some are also shifting toward automation and changing how they run their operations.

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According to RBC, supply chains between Canada and the US are closely linked. But unfortunately, cross-border transactions do not happen the same way prior to tariff implementation, hitting businesses, factories, and jobs.

The impact also varies by region. Ontario and Quebec face higher tariffs of over 6 per cent because they depend more on cars and metals. Other provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, and Saskatchewan face tariffs under 1 per cent. So, growth in Ontario and Quebec should be among the slowest in 2026.

Also read: Ceasefire eases LME aluminium trend from prices to inventories

The Canada‑United States‑Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) has helped limit the damage. About 90 per cent of Canadian exports to the US stayed tariff‑free in 2025, which helped protect jobs and production. But Canada’s share of US imports fell from 12.6 per cent in 2024 to 11.2 per cent in 2025, showing that Canada is becoming less competitive.

RBC found that globally, trade continued to grow. Trade outside the US rose by 4.4 per cent in 2025, while US imports increased by 2.7 per cent. Demand also shifted away from China to other Asian countries.

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Canada’s response to tariffs was limited. Some of the tariffs started in early 2025 but were later removed, except on steel, aluminium, and autos. This kept the prices in check and left space for flexible interest rates.

The report said Canada faces ongoing challenges, including slower productivity and the need to build new supply chains as global trade patterns change.

Middle East geopolitical tensions remained uncertain, aluminium prices mainly fluctuated at highs in the short term

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 04:30:00 +0530

Macro perspective: This week, the global macro front remained focused on geopolitical disruptions. On April 7 local time, US President Trump posted on social media: "I have agreed to a pause on the bombing and strikes on Iran for a period of two weeks." Subsequently, a White House official stated that Israel had agreed to a temporary ceasefire. On the other hand, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that, based on the Supreme Leader's recommendation and the Council's approval, it accepted Pakistan's ceasefire proposal.

After the US and Iran announced the ceasefire, most of the over a thousand vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz were still in a "wait-and-see" mode, with only a very small number passing through. Iran required all vessels to obtain permission before transiting the strait.

US President Trump stated that the US was considering "joint management" of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. Oman said it had signed an agreement not to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of April 9, Iranian media reported that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed, forcing oil tankers to turn back. The US Fed's March meeting minutes indicated that more officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes, and the Fed's mouthpiece noted that the ceasefire made the Fed's decision-making more difficult.

Fundamentals: The supply side, excluding China, is directly impacted by geopolitical conflicts, and Middle Eastern aluminium enterprises cut production. Recently, the UAE's EGA and Bahrain's Alba were successively hit by missile strikes, with production facilities damaged. The extent of damage was still under comprehensive assessment. The market widely expected large-scale production cuts or even shutdowns, with the global aluminium supply gap expected to widen and concerns over ex-China supply continuing to escalate. In China, the proportion of liquid aluminium rebounded in March as downstream sectors fully resumed work after the holiday, surging 9.3 percentage points M-o-M to 73.7per cent, above early-month expectations.

Entering the traditional peak consumption season in April, downstream operating rates continued to rise, and the proportion of liquid aluminium was expected to climb further. On the inventory side, high aluminium prices in China suppressed downstream willingness to actively restock, with downstream enterprises generally purchasing as needed based on orders and maintaining low inventory operations, with no large-scale stockpiling behaviour for now. On Thursday, China's aluminium ingot social inventory saw an inventory buildup of 35,000 tonnes w-o-w to 1.422 million tonnes, with short-term inventory still at a relatively ample level. Inventories outside China continued to decline, with LME aluminium inventory maintaining a downward trend this week, falling to 414,000 tonnes.

Overall:

On the macro front, although the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, the Strait of Hormuz had not resumed normal transit. Vessels still needed Iranian permission to navigate, with most ships remaining in a wait-and-see mode. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts carried the risk of spreading to surrounding areas, further intensifying market concerns over uncertainty in the Middle Eastern supply chain. Supply side, the substantial damage previously inflicted has become irreversible. Aluminium capacity in the Middle East suffered direct military strikes, with UAE's EGA and Bahrain's Alba successively attacked and production facilities damaged. The expected global aluminium supply gap has widened significantly, and ex-China supply concerns continue to escalate. Meanwhile, China has entered the traditional peak consumption season, with the proportion of liquid aluminium rebounding to around 74per cent and downstream operating rates rising steadily, providing solid demand-side support. Overall, macro-level risks of strait passage restrictions and conflict escalation resonate with fundamental supply hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong floor support for aluminium prices.

However, weak interest rate cut expectations, higher-than-expected domestic aluminium ingot inventory buildup, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high oil price fluctuations have notably weighed on the upside room for aluminium prices, with aluminium prices fluctuating at highs in the short term.The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract is expected to trade in the range of RMB 23,800-25,100 per tonne next week, while LME aluminium is expected to trade in the range of USD 3,350-3,530 per tonne.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Global aluminium tightness meets domestic limits: Xingfa’s balancing act

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:33:00 +0530

A significant reduction in the shareholder payout has brought Xingfa Aluminium’s current position into sharper focus. The company lowered its annual dividend from HKD 0.64 to HKD 0.50 ( USD 0.082 to USD 0.064) after reporting a 23.5 per cent decline in 2025 profit, which fell to RMB 632 million ( USD 88 million). This reduction reflects a deeper operational strain driven by rising input costs, even as aluminium markets worldwide tighten.

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Globally, the metal is entering a period defined less by cycles and more by constrained supply. Physical availability has thinned considerably, with London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories dropping to 418,675 tonnes as of March 27, 2026. At the same time, geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, has added friction to supply chains. Prices have consequently climbed towards USD 3,500 per tonne, approaching levels seen only during previous peaks.

However, for Chinese producers, the ability to benefit from these conditions is not straightforward. Domestic production is effectively capped at 45 million tonnes in order to strengthen emissions control efforts. Exports have already declined noticeably this year, tightening global supply but also restricting the flexibility of firms such as Xingfa.

Also Read: LME aluminium price and stocks continue to sledge downwards; future contracts rise nearly 1%

The company’s latest financial performance illustrates this imbalance. Revenue rose by 9.8 per cent to approximately RMB 20.7 billion ( USD 2.88 billion), suggesting that pricing has held up to some extent. However, that growth has not translated into profitability. Instead, margins have been eroded by escalating costs, resulting in a sharp drop in net earnings.

Electricity is a key controller of this growing pressure. Aluminium production depends heavily on a stable, long-term power supply, yet the domestic energy market has become increasingly competitive. High-consumption industries, including artificial intelligence and data centres, are securing contracts at rates exceeding USD115 per MWh. By comparison, aluminium smelters typically require long-term agreements often spanning one to two decades at roughly USD 40 per MWh to remain viable. The widening gap between these figures is quite a structural burden.

This imbalance has restricted Xingfa’s ability to translate favourable global pricing into stronger margins. While aluminium prices have seen a global rise, the company is dealing with a domestic cost base which is quite high and difficult to adjust. Passing these costs over to the customers is even more challenging, and profitability is under sustained pressure. In this context, the dividend reduction reflects a reallocation of cash rather than a short-term adjustment.

Xingfa is prioritising financial resilience and reinvestment over shareholder payouts, reflecting the limited scope for expansion within China’s capped aluminium sector. With domestic growth avenues constrained, the focus is shifting abroad, particularly towards Indonesia, where resource availability and supportive industrial conditions are attracting wider industry interest, despite the absence of detailed disclosures from the company itself.

At the same time, the company is strengthening its international profile. Participation in events such as VIETBUILD 2025 points to a deliberate effort to build brand recognition beyond China. These initiatives, alongside continued spending on research and development, indicate a longer-term strategy centred on competitiveness in global markets rather than reliance on domestic demand.

Future performance will depend on several interconnected factors. Aluminium prices remain the most immediate variable. Current levels, supported by tight supply, provide a degree of resilience. However, any sustained decline below USD 3,300 per tonne or a significant rebuild in LME inventories would weaken the underlying case. On the other hand, a return towards the March 2022 peak of USD 4,073.50 per tonne would reinforce favourable conditions.

Policy decisions within China also carry weight. The 45 million tonne production cap is a defining constraint, but discussions around exemptions for renewable-powered smelters could alter the landscape. Any easing of these limits would have implications for both output and cost structures. Without such changes, domestic pressures are likely to persist.

Execution will ultimately determine the outcome. The transition from a domestically focused model to an internationally oriented one requires more than intent. Progress in establishing overseas operations, particularly in regions such as Indonesia, will be a key indicator of whether Xingfa can successfully reposition itself.

The company is operating between two opposing forces. On one side, global supply constraints are supporting prices; on the other, domestic limitations are compressing margins. The dividend cut marks a clear acknowledgement of this tension, as Xingfa shifts its focus from immediate returns to longer-term adaptation in a structurally constrained market.

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LME aluminium price and stocks continue to sledge downwards; future contracts rise nearly 1%

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:35:00 +0530

The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices continued to edge downwards on April 9. As cash prices and near-term contracts eased, the longer-dated contracts improved considerably. Stocks kept sliding down, indicating a continued high demand and supply pressure.

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On April 9, LME aluminium cash bid price stood at USD 3494 per tonne, reflecting a 0.71 per cent decline from USD 3519 per tonne on April 8. The cash offer price settled at USD 3494.5 per tonne, down 0.72 per cent from USD 3520 per tonne on the previous close.

The LME aluminium 3-month bid as well as offer prices marked a decline of 0.23 per cent. The bid dropped from USD 3,463 per tonne on April 8 to USD 3,455 per tonne on April 9. Concurrently, the offer price slipped from 3465 per tonne to USD 3,457 per tonne.

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In contrast to the declining trend, the longer-dated contracts edged upwards on April 9. Both the December 27 bid and offer price improved by 0.83 per cent, as the former rose to USD 3,008 per tonne from USD 2983 per tonne and the latter closed at USD 3013 per tonne, rising from USD 2,988 per tonne on the previous session.

The LME aluminium 3-month Asian Reference Price on April 9 stood at USD 3,444 per tonne.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

On April 9, LME aluminium opening stock came in at 403,875 tonnes, declining further from 409,900 tonnes on April 8, marking a 1.47 per cent difference. Live warrants slipped 1.5 per cent, down from 268,600 tonnes to 264,575 tonnes.

Similarly, cancelled warrants, falling from 135,275 tonnes on April 8, stood at 137,050 tonnes on April 9, decreasing by 1.31 per cent.

On April 9, LME alumina platts price settled at USD 307.38 per tonne.

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Strait stalemate unresolved on the eve of U.S.-Iran talks, supply hard damage supports aluminium prices fluctuating at highs

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:30:00 +0530

Futures: SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,670 per tonne in the night session, up 0.39per cent. The price stood above all moving averages (MA5=24,656, MA10=24,619.5, MA30=24,559.17, MA60=24,351.92), with the moving average system in a bullish alignment.

The MACD indicator showed a golden cross with DIF (91.95) above DEA (68.71), and the histogram expanded to 46.48, indicating continuously strengthening bullish momentum. The suggested key trading range for SHFE aluminium is 24,500-25,100. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,447.5 per tonne, down 0.79per cent. The price fell below MA5 (3,477.2) but remained above MA10 (3,404.8), MA30 (3,344.08), and MA60 (3,233.28), indicating a short-term pullback while the medium-term bullish structure remained intact. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross with DIF (59.06) above DEA (50.24), but the histogram narrowed to 17.64, suggesting weakening upward momentum. The suggested key trading range for LME aluminium is 3,420-3,500.

Macro front: The US and Iran were set to hold their first round of talks in Pakistan on April 11, but significant differences remained between the two sides on ceasefire terms, mainly centred on Iran's uranium enrichment activities, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the Lebanon ceasefire issue, and the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East.

The US core PCE price index rose 3per cent YoY in February, narrowing slightly from the previous reading of 3.1per cent, in line with market expectations. Services inflation slowed down notably, with real spending up only 0.1per cent m-o-m. US initial jobless claims increased by 16,000 to 219,000 last week, above market expectations.

Fundamentals: Supply side, outside China, directly impacted by geopolitical conflicts, Middle Eastern aluminium enterprises cut production. Recently, UAE's EGA and Bahrain's Alba were successively hit by missile strikes, with production facilities damaged. The extent of damage was still under comprehensive assessment. The market widely expected large-scale production cuts or even shutdowns, with the global aluminium supply gap expected to widen and concerns over ex-China supply continuing to escalate. In China, the proportion of liquid aluminium rebounded in March as downstream sectors fully resumed work after the holiday, surging 9.3 percentage points m-o-m to 73.7per cent, above early-month expectations. Entering the traditional peak consumption season in April, downstream operating rates continued to rise, and the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to climb further.

On the inventory side, high aluminium prices in China suppressed downstream willingness to actively restock, with downstream enterprises generally purchasing as needed based on orders and maintaining low inventory operations, with no large-scale stockpiling behaviour for now. This Thursday, China's aluminium ingot social inventory saw an inventory buildup of 35,000 mt w-o-w, with short-term inventory still at a relatively ample level. Inventories outside China continued to decline, with LME aluminium inventory maintaining a downward trend this week, having fallen to 414,000 mt.

Primary aluminium market: In the morning session, SHFE aluminium 2604 fluctuated downward, with the trading centre shifting lower than the previous day. Affected by declining aluminium prices, sellers raised their offers, and overall market shipment sentiment weakened. As some downstream players held inventory and aluminium prices remained at highs, overall purchasing sentiment also declined yesterday. Market transactions were mainly concentrated at SMM A00 aluminium at a premium of RMB 10-20 per tonne.

Yesterday, the East China market shipment sentiment index was 3.25, down 0.09 m-o-m; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.24, up 0.56 m-o-m. Yesterday, SHFE aluminium futures prices fluctuated downward in a correction, and the central China market lacked confidence in prices, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere overall and buying sentiment declining slightly. As futures fell, traders actively shipped out cargoes, but actual transaction prices were weak. Suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, with offers only edging slightly lower. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from parity to a premium of RMB 30 over the central China price. Yesterday, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.73, flat m-o-m; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.04 m-o-m.

Aluminium scrap: Yesterday, spot primary aluminium fell RMB 160 per tonne from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market followed the decline overall. Yesterday, the tightening regulatory stance on the "reverse invoicing" policy remained unchanged, with compliance costs in the aluminium scrap recycling process staying elevated, and actually available invoiced cargoes remaining tight. Demand side, the divergence in shipments between aluminium tensile scrap and wrought aluminium alloy scrap intensified. For aluminium tensile scrap, such as shredded aluminium tensile scrap and ADC12 aluminium shavings, downstream scrap utilisation enterprises, including secondary alloy producers, mostly maintained purchasing as needed with low inventory operations.

For wrought aluminium alloy scrap such as baled UBC and 5-series/3-series plate off-cuts, downstream secondary aluminium plate/sheet and strip enterprises were in peak production season with relatively high stockpiling enthusiasm. However, overall, high price levels combined with wild swings in aluminium prices continued to suppress purchasing enthusiasm among scrap utilisation enterprises. Price spread side, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was recorded at RMB 3,005 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tensile scrap was RMB 1,715 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market is expected to hover at highs next week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) around RMB 20,800-21,300 per tonne (tax-exclusive). Supply side, policy constraints are unlikely to ease in the short term, and tight compliant cargoes combined with suppliers holding back cargoes will continue to underpin prices. Demand side, the divergence between aluminium tensile scrap and wrought aluminium alloy scrap will persist. Primary aluminium remains subject to fluctuations due to factors such as Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and coupled with a lacklustre downstream peak-season recovery, the overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers will continue. Caution is warranted against market risks arising from aluminium price fluctuations at highs and poor cargo circulation.

Secondary aluminium alloy: Spot cargo side, ADC12 market prices were generally marked down yesterday, with declines concentrated in the range of RMB 100-200 per tonne. The main reasons were the cost side decline driven by the expanding drop in aluminium prices, as well as insufficient support from the demand side. Currently, downstream procurement remains dominated by rigid demand, and market transactions show mediocre performance. Meanwhile, low-priced supplies flowed into some regions, intensifying price competition and further suppressing market confidence. In the short term, demand side weakening is expected, and ADC12 prices still face certain downward pressure.

Aluminium market summary: Macro front, the US and Iran are scheduled to hold their first round of talks on April 11, but significant disagreements remain on core issues such as uranium enrichment and strait navigation, casting doubt on negotiation prospects. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains subject to Iranian permit restrictions, with most vessels adopting a wait-and-see approach, and geopolitical risk premiums have not subsided. Supply side, the substantive damage caused earlier is irreversible.

Aluminium capacity in the Middle East suffered direct military strikes, with UAE's EGA and Bahrain's Alba Aluminium successively attacked and production facilities damaged. The global aluminium supply gap is expected to widen significantly, and concerns over ex-China supply continue to escalate. Meanwhile, China has entered the traditional peak consumption season, with the proportion of liquid aluminium rebounding sharply to 73.7per cent, downstream operating rates rising steadily, and demand side support remaining solid. Overall, the macro perspective of restricted strait passage and conflict escalation risks resonated with the fundamental supply hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminium prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, higher-than-expected aluminium ingot inventory buildup in China, and the adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices have all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminium prices. In the short term, aluminium prices are fluctuating at highs.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Rio Tinto, Century Aluminium lift US billet premiums by 12% amid supply crunch

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:55:00 +0530

Rio Tinto and Century Aluminium have raised aluminium billet premiums in the United States by around 12 per cent amid supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, news sources reported on April 8, 2026.

The two producers increased premiums by about 3 cents per pound, bout USD 110 per tonne, compared to pre-war levels. Rio Tinto is also pushing customers to sign multiyear contracts at the revised rates.

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The increase reflects disruptions in aluminium flows from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for nearly 20 per cent of US imports. With supply routes under strain, US buyers are turning more to domestic producers, where supply remains tight and prices are elevated.

Aluminium prices have climbed over 10 per cent since the conflict began in late February 2026. The US Midwest premium has surged to a record USD 1.1325 per pound.

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RUSAL to divert aluminium from China to Japan as premiums surge amid Gulf supply crunch

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:53:00 +0530

Russia-based RUSAL, a leading global aluminium producer, is planning to divert a part of its aluminium shipments originally intended for China to Japan and other Asian customer bases, as reported by Reuters. The update is revealed by the sources amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions that are actively redrawing the trade supply chain map and contributing to the skyrocketing premiums.

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Aluminium premiums surge and outlook revision by eminent organisations like Goldman Sachs indicate a massive supply crunch and shifting trade flows due to the Middle East conflict, which led to the closure of a key global trade corridor, i.e., the Strait of Hormuz.

The criticalities were further aggravated by the Iranian strikes dated March 28 on the Gulf sites of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba). Where does that bring the aluminium sourcing and resourcing graph?

Japan’s import partners

According to Trade Data Monitor, in 2025, the Middle Eastern Gulf region exported about 9 per cent or 7 million tonnes (approx.) of aluminium to the global market.

Japan, accounting for the lion’s share of 400,000 tonnes from this amount, sourced 21 per cent of its imported aluminium from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Its next import partner was China, which shipped 143,000 tonnes to the nation. Russia, however, had exported only 68,000 tonnes to Japan.

For the April-June quarter, Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to the pay a USD 350 per tonne premium, an additional amount to be paid over the current London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark aluminium price. This reflected an eleven-year high, thereby setting a strong regional standard for the global market.

The recent surge is not limited to Japan. Other regions have been facing even steeper increases. For instance, the European premiums are touching almost USD 600 per tonne, the highest since mid-2022 and the US Midwest premiums have surpassed USD 2,500 per tonne, marking a record high.

The sharp rise underlines the tightened trade flow and increased competition over the available primary aluminium, intensifying pressure on regional supply-demand balances.

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RUSAL expected to redirect supply

Amid these shifts, RUSAL, the largest aluminium producer in Russia, would likely adjust its export strategy. As Chinese buyers push back against higher import costs from Japanese premiums, shipments to China, averaging 170,000 to 180,000 tonnes per month from October to February, are likely to decline in the coming months.

“This is unavoidable if the arbitrage remains at the current level,” stated a source with direct knowledge. Instead, RUSAL is said to be exploring alternative markets, including increased sales to South Korea.

The company, however, has not yet made any official statement.

China dynamics weigh on imports

China’s domestic market is playing a major role in reshaping trade patterns.

Despite global price volatility, domestic aluminium prices in China have risen more moderately, unlike international benchmarks. This has made locally produced aluminium more competitive than imported material priced at elevated premiums.

Concurrently, adequate supply and weaker demand conditions have resulted in increasing inventories, with stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reaching a six-year high. China accounts for around 60 per cent of global aluminium production, further grounding its influence on global pricing dynamics.

The divergence between global and Chinese prices is challenging producers and traders. For exporters like RUSAL, this indicates a recalibration of sales strategies to optimise margins across regions with different pricing.

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Middle East aluminium attacks have a limited impact on China's prebaked anode exports

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:19:00 +0530

On March 28, Emirates Global Aluminium's (EGA) Al Taweelah plant in Abu Dhabi and Alba's production facilities in Bahrain were hit by precision drone strikes, damaging some equipment. EGA and Alba have annual capacities of 1.6 million tonnes and 1.623 million tonnes, respectively. The Middle East accounted for about 9 per cent of global aluminium capacity, totalling 6.9 million tonnes/year. Before the attacks, Middle East electrolytic aluminium output had been cut by nearly 10 per cent. With additional damage from the strikes, an estimated 30 per cent of the region's electrolytic aluminium capacity could be affected.

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Producing one tonne of electrolytic aluminium required about 0.5 tonnes of prebaked anode. The Middle East relied heavily on imported prebaked anode, bringing annual imports in roughly 1.3 million tonnes due to insufficient local capacity, among which Chinese resources accounted for about 30 per cent.

Also Read: Aluminum Association CEO: Gulf disruptions lift aluminium prices; industry adapts

In 2025, China's total petroleum coke consumption reached 46.2 million tonnes. Prebaked anode, as the largest downstream sector of petroleum coke, accounted for 56 per cent of total demand. China produced 23.45 million tonnes of prebaked anode in 2025, up 350,000 tonnes, a 1.52 per cent year-on-year increase. At the same time, 2025 prebaked anode exports hit a record high of 2.5224 million tonnes, up 40.11per cent from 2024, while imports were negligible at 4,200 tonnes.

China exported about 410,000 tonnes of prebaked anode to the Middle East in 2025, representing 16 per cent of China's total. Specifically, the volume of prebaked anodes exported from China to the UAE reached 240,000 tonnes, ranking fifth among China's prebaked anode export destinations. At the same time, Bahrain took only 48,000 tonnes.

In January-February 2026, China shipped 68,000 tonnes of prebaked anode to the Middle East, with the UAE and Bahrain accounting for 71.6 per cent of the total. The impact of damaged capacities in the UAE and Bahrain on China's prebaked anode exports in 2026 is expected to be modest, with affected export volumes estimated to be 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes.

As prebaked anode output continued to rise slightly in 2026, Chinese suppliers can redirect exports to other buyers, such as Indonesia and Norway, to fill any gap.

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RITES secures INR 1.19 billion from NALCO railway siding project boost

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:08:00 +0530

Rail India Technical and Economic Service (RITES) Limited, under the Ministry of Railways of India, has received a remarkable increase in contract value for its ongoing railway siding consultancy project in collaboration with National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO), solidifying its standing in the mining infrastructure development of India.

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The revised order has raised the total project value to INR 1.19 billion (USD 12.84 billion), indicating s scope for expansion while reinforcing the long-standing partnership between the two public sector enterprises.

Initially, the project that had been awarded INR 797.3 million (USD 8.59 million) on March 31, 2021, has now seen its value rise by an additional INR 391.6 million (USD 4.22 million).

RITES released the update to the stock exchanges of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) on April 8, 2026, complying with Regulation 30 of SEBI’s Listing Regulations.

Project and expansion details

The assignment involves providing project management consultancy (PMC) services for a railway siding at Sankerjang, part of the Phase I project of NALCO’s Utkal-D coal mines.

Under the Detailed engineering PMC, RITES will oversee the full lifecycle of the railway siding project, including the planning, design, quality control, project execution and adherence to the timeline.

The increase in contract value is likely resulting from changes in project scope since the original award. Some factors may include rising material and labour costs, added engineering necessities, geology or land-related challenges to particular sites, as well as environmental and regulatory considerations.

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Deposit mode and PSU collaboration

The project operates under a deposit mode turnkey structure, whereby NALCO bears the actual project costs and RITES is entitled to a fixed consultancy fee.

This model enables smoother cost revisions and protects RITES from risks related to cost overruns. Additionally, it allows NALCO to scale project execution without requiring the consultant to arrange financing.

The contract revision highlights the continued collaboration between RITES and NALCO, two essential public sector undertakings (PSUs), indicating a broader trend of integrated execution across India’s mining and infrastructure.

Impact on stakeholders and sector

For RITES, the enhanced order size improves revenue visibility and strengthens its order book, directly benefiting shareholders.

Concurrently, NALCO, allowing it to focus on its primary aluminium operations, gains from having an experienced project management partner.

Moreover, the project is expected to generate employment opportunities and boost demand for construction-related services in the Sankerjang region.

The railway siding and improved logistics at the Utkal-D mines will help reduce transportation costs and enhance supply efficiency for industries reliant on coal, including power generation and metals.

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