AlCircle: Latest primaryaluminium news update

UBS upgrades Alcoa on expectations of stronger aluminium prices

Fri, 22 May 2026 18:30:00 +0530

Alcoa received an upgraded stock rating from UBS, which raised its recommendation to “Buy” from “Neutral” and increased its price target to USD 80 from USD 75.

The upgrade comes after a strong rally in aluminium markets, with Alcoa shares rising around 139 per cent over the past year.

UBS analyst Daniel Major said the brokerage expects prolonged smelter disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict to tighten global aluminium supply and support higher aluminium prices and regional premiums.

According to UBS, Alcoa’s current valuation still reflects an assumed London Metal Exchange aluminium price of around USD 3,000 per tonne, which remains roughly 20 per cent below current spot market levels.

The brokerage expects the company to report sequentially stronger EBITDA and free cash flow in the second quarter, even while using relatively conservative aluminium price assumptions for the second half of 2026.

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UBS also said its 2027 EBITDA forecast for Alcoa is roughly 10 per cent above broader market consensus estimates.

The firm expects sustained cash generation and possible asset divestments, including the potential sale of the Massena East facility, to reduce Alcoa’s net debt below its target range of USD 1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.

If debt levels continue to improve, UBS believes the company could eventually move toward share buybacks in the second half of 2026, which investors would likely view positively.

Alcoa’s first-quarter 2026 results, however, came in slightly below market expectations. The company posted earnings per share of USD 1.40, missing analyst estimates of USD 1.47. Revenue for the quarter stood at USD 3.19 billion, compared with forecasts of USD 3.3 billion.

The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.10 per share, scheduled to be paid in June 2026.

Even with the softer quarterly numbers, market sentiment around aluminium producers has remained relatively strong as supply concerns and geopolitical tensions continue to support aluminium prices globally.

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Century Aluminum faces earnings pressure from energy costs and aluminium price swings

Fri, 22 May 2026 11:30:00 +0530

Century Aluminum Company has returned to investor’s focus after its recent quarterly results showed how falling aluminium prices and high power costs are affecting profitability. The company is also continuing to spend on expansion and low-carbon projects, adding pressure to near-term earnings.

The aluminium producer operates smelters in the United States and Europe and supplies primary aluminium products to industries such as automotive, packaging, construction and manufacturing. Its financial performance is closely linked to London Metal Exchange aluminium prices, while regional premiums, alumina costs and electricity rates also have a major impact on margins.

Power remains one of the company’s most important cost factors because aluminium smelting consumes large amounts of electricity. Century Aluminum has been working on long-term power agreements and lower-carbon energy sourcing in an effort to improve cost stability and support demand for cleaner aluminium from industrial customers.

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The company has also increased focus on value-added products such as billet and foundry alloys, which generally provide stronger margins than standard-grade aluminium. These products are used in automotive and engineered applications where customers often prefer longer-term supply arrangements.

Century Aluminum’s US operations are considered strategically important as manufacturers seek more domestic aluminium supply and reduced dependence on imports. Its European plants, however, remain exposed to energy market volatility and tightening environmental rules across the region.

Alongside current operations, the company is pursuing projects linked to low-carbon aluminium production and future demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and lightweight transport. These investments could support long-term growth, although they are expected to keep spending levels high in the short term.

Industry observers also point to tariffs, trade measures and carbon-related regulations in the United States and Europe as important factors for the company’s outlook. Policies supporting domestic and lower-emission aluminium production may improve the competitive position of producers such as Century Aluminum over time.

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GCC aluminium production outlook revised for Q2 2026 after April output shock

Fri, 22 May 2026 08:48:00 +0530

As the Middle East conflict continues with full force, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and 9 per cent of aluminium production and supply from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) hangs by the thread of uncertainty. Compounded by the damages caused by the geopolitical unrest, GCC completes one-third of the April-June quarter (Q2) of 2026, with a staggering 26.87 per cent month-on-month production decline.

GCC April’26 rings warning bells

Aluminium production in the January-March quarter (Q1) of 2026 declined in the range of 540,000 to 570,000 tonnes or about 3.7 per cent, slipping from 1.55 million tonnes in the October-December quarter (Q4) in 2025 to 1.49 million tonnes in Q1 2026.

As the GCC stepped into Q2 2026, the April aluminium output saw a drastic dip, with the daily average falling to 10,989 tonnes per day in April 2026, a 26.87 per cent M-o-M decline from the March levels of 15,000 tonnes per day. The figure also depicts a 35.36 per cent drop from the pre-conflict daily output volumes of approximately 17,000 tonnes.

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As April’s monthly average production comes to 330,000 tonnes, the volume draws a grim contrast year-on-year, when the daily output averaged at 16,800 tonnes, and the monthly production totalled 505,000 tonnes, thereby indicating a sharp drop of 34.65 per cent.

The first four months of 2026 yielded a production of 1.76 million tonnes of aluminium by the GCC. Comparing the same period Y-o-Y, production has once again hit a slump, down by 13.02 per cent from 2.03 million tonnes produced between January and April 2025.

Jonathan Grant, Secretary General at the International Aluminium Association, noted, "What we are seeing in April's numbers is probably not the floor, it is a further deterioration that brings Gulf output to levels not seen in over a decade.”

Factors driving the decline and its repercussions

Several of the Middle East conflict-related incidents have factored in dragging the production down more than one-third of the previous year’s figures.

The first roadblock in the pathway of production was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing shipping disruptions, compelling Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) to invoke force majeure on certain products from early March. Soon after, Alba announced a controlled shutdown of potlines 1, 2 and 3, cutting off 19 per cent or 308,369 tonnes of its annual production capacity of 1.62 million tonnes. This was followed by the 40 per cent production shutdown of 640,000 tonnes at the integrated aluminium complex Qatalum.

Furthermore, the Iranian missile attacks on the Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) facilities led EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter to sustain “significant damage” and cut 60 per cent of its annual production of about 2.8 million tonnes. These incidents crippled up to an estimated 2.3 million tonnes of combined annual capacity.

Combining the deficit volumes in Q1, i.e., 308,369 tonnes from Alba, 1.6 million tonnes from EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter and 256,000 tonnes from Qatalum, the total volume of annual production cut stands around 2.16 million tonnes. Hence, an estimated quarterly production cut appears to be 541,092 tonnes. EGA’s other smelter, the Jebel Ali facility, has a nameplate capacity of 1 MTPA and is operating with restrictions.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices have climbed over 13 per cent since the inception of the conflict on February 28 and are up about 19 per cent year-to-date (YTD), according to Reuters. LME cash offer at the close of the May 14 session stood at USD 3,768 per tonne, continuing to surpass the four-year high benchmark.

Despite contributing only around 9 per cent of global primary aluminium output, the Gulf region plays a far larger role in international trade. It typically accounts for 19 per cent of the EU’s primary aluminium imports, 28 per cent of Japan’s and 21 per cent of those into the United States. Moreover, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey remain heavily dependent on the region.

“Aluminium is essential to modern industrial economies, and with countries including the US, Japan and EU relying on Gulf smelters, this appears to be a slow-motion supply chain shock,” the Secretary General mentioned.

China, which accounts for nearly 60 per cent of global aluminium production, has only marginally increased output, while the country’s 45 million-tonne production cap continues to limit any major expansion. At the same time, no other producing region is in a position to quickly compensate for a disruption of this scale.

EGA attempts to bridge output deficit

To mitigate the immediate consequences of the blocked Strait of Hormuz trade corridor, EGA reportedly plans to take over TAQA's stake in the company, which is about 40 per cent, i.e., acquiring about 158,000 tonnes annually, or 13,166 tonnes every month out of Sohar’s annual capacity of about 395,000 tonnes.

This attempt to reduce the deficit would cover only 9.87 per cent of Al Taweelah’s annual production of 1.6 million tonnes. Provided Oman is willing to give up its stake to the UAE, the deficit would still continue to prevail until the Al Taweelah facility is operational within a year.

Revising outlook

Out of the original production capacity of 5.06 million tonnes (approx.), combining EGA (2.8 million MTPA), Alba (1.62 MTPA) and Qatalum (640,000 TPA), a 2.16 million tonnes or 42.69 per cent production deficit can be noticed.

Combining the still operational portions, i.e., Alba’s 1.3 MTPA, EGA’s present nameplate output of 1 MTPA and a potential addition of about 158,000 tonnes to it (1.16 MTPA) and Qatalum’s 384,000 TPA, projected annual production volume amounts to 2.84 million tonnes. Based on this estimate, average monthly production would come around 236,666 tonnes.

Therefore, adding the projected monthly averages for May and June with April’s production volume, the Q2 production outlook appears around 803,332 tonnes, which falls short Y-o-Y of the 1.5 million tonnes Q2 2025 by 47.6 per cent.

Forecasting a difficult phase in the global aluminium value chain, Grant observed, “The region's smelters cannot replenish raw material stocks through the Strait of Hormuz and are trying alternate land routes to keep operating. That equation is now catching up with production in a very direct way.”

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LME aluminium price hits $3,720/t; supply shortage deepens as stocks fall to 339,475t

Fri, 22 May 2026 06:16:00 +0530

The May 21 session on the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices witnessed a drastic recovery in the aluminium market trend from the declining graph in the May 20 session. Figures improved across cash, benchmark and contracts, while the declining stocks and warrants indicated a worldwide aluminium supply shortage.

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The LME aluminium cash bid jumped from USD 3,643 per tonne on May 20 to USD 3,718 per tonne on May 21, rising by 2.06 per cent. The offer climbed from USD 3,644 per tonne to USD 3,720 per tonne, gaining 2.08 per cent.

The LME aluminium three-month bid as well as offer prices gained 1.64 per cent on May 21. As the bid edged up from USD 3,589 per tonne to USD 3,648 per tonne, the offer price rose from USD 3,590 per tonne to USD 3,649 per tonne.

Both the December 2027 bid and offer price increased by 0.94 per cent on the close of May 21. The bid price reached USD 3,222 per tonne, up from USD 3,192 per tonne, while the offer price closed at USD 3,227 per tonne, rising from USD 3,197 per tonne.

The LME aluminium three-month Asian Reference Price closed at USD 3,637 per tonne on May 21.

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On the inventory front, LME aluminium opening stock recorded further decline, slipping 0.32 per cent from 340,575 tonnes on May 20 to 339,475 tonnes on May 21. Live warrants, contrary to the previous close, closed with a decline from 273,775 tonnes to 265,075 tonnes, reflecting a difference of 3.18 per cent.

Cancelled warrants, on the other hand, recovered from 65,700 tonnes to 74,400 tonnes, increasing by 13.24 per cent.

LME alumina Platts price stood at USD 307.67 per tonne on May 21, marking a 0.6 per cent decline from USD 309.52 per tonne on May 20.

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Destocking inflection point largely confirmed, aluminium prices continue LME outperforms SHFE pattern

Fri, 22 May 2026 05:20:00 +0530

Futures: SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,440 per tonne yesterday, down 0.39 per cent, settling at the MA5 (24,440) level but below the MA10 (24,547), MA20 (24,674), MA30 (24,780), and MA60 (24,675), with the moving average system in a bearish alignment. The MACD indicator showed DIF = -88.7, DEA = -54.09, with the death cross continuing and the negative histogram expanding to -69.21, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum. The suggested key trading range for SHFE aluminium is 24,200–24,700. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,643 per tonne, edging up 0.10 per cent. The price held firmly above all moving averages (MA5 = 3,611.2, MA10 = 3,609.35, MA30 = 3,573.55, MA60 = 3,458.82), with the moving averages in a bullish alignment. The MACD indicator showed DIF = 37.66, DEA = 35.79, maintaining a golden cross with a positive histogram (3.74), though the value was small, suggesting weak upward momentum. The suggested key trading range for LME aluminium is 3,610–3,660.

Macro front: US President Trump stated that the US is still in negotiations with Iran, but whether through a deal or military means, the US will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state. On the issue of Strait of Hormuz "transit fees," Trump reiterated that the US has full control over the Strait of Hormuz, that the US maritime blockade on Iran is 100 per cent effective, and that no vessel can pass through Iranian waters without US approval.

Fundamentals: Ex-China, aluminium exhibited a rigid supply gap amid the Middle East conflict, driving continued destocking of LME inventory. As of Wednesday, LME inventory fell by approximately 7,000 tonne Y-o-Y to 339,500 tonne. In China, aluminium ingot inventory at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 1.412 million tonne as of Thursday, down 16,000 tonne W-o-W from last Thursday. The destocking inflection point was largely confirmed, boosting market sentiment, though inventory remained at elevated levels, continuing to weigh on aluminium prices. Demand side, aluminium prices were in the doldrums during the week, with downstream sectors generally maintaining a mild recovery trend in operating rates. Specifically, the domestic aluminium extrusion industry recorded an operating rate of 57.4 per cent this week, up 0.5 per cent points W-o-W, showing characteristics of weak repair and marginal improvement. Construction extrusion saw a steady recovery in operating rates driven by infrastructure project orders, while industrial extrusion maintained a stable and positive trend supported by rigid downstream manufacturing demand.

Primary aluminium market: Yesterday morning, the SHFE aluminium 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center moving higher compared to the previous trading day. Some downstream players began to stockpile, and overall buying sentiment in the market recovered somewhat. Influenced by destocking, some sellers held prices firm with prevailing bullish sentiment, while others held back from selling. The mainstream spot cargo quotations in the market ranged from SMMA00 – RMB 10 per tonne to + RMB 10 per tonne. East China market willingness to sell index was 3.06, up 0.11 W-o-W; purchasing sentiment index was 3.06, up 0.04 W-o-W. As aluminium futures prices rose consecutively, suppliers in central China saw a notable increase in willingness to sell at highs, and major holders showed poor willingness to hold prices firm. However, due to high absolute prices and premiums, downstream processing enterprises adopted a wait-and-see attitude with poor buying sentiment, and overall market transaction atmosphere remained sluggish. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market hovered between a premium of RMB 20 and a discount of RMB 10 against the central China price. Central China market willingness to sell index was 2.84, up 0.02 W-o-W; purchasing sentiment index was 2.27, down 0.03 W-o-W.

Aluminium scrap: Recently, SMM A00 prices continued to rise, up RMB 130 per tonne from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market collectively followed the uptrend, making up for the previous day's gains. Price spread side, on May 21, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was recorded at RMB 2,706 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 2,330 per tonne. According to the latest customs data, China's aluminium scrap imports in April 2026 were approximately 171,000 tonne, down about 10 per cent Y-o-Y. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totalled 700,000 tonne. In terms of import source countries, the main sources of China's aluminium scrap imports in April were Thailand, the UK, Japan, the US, Australia, and other countries and regions, among which Thailand accounted for 20.7 per tonne of China's total imports.

Secondary aluminium alloy: Yesterday, the ADC12 market was generally stable with slight rise. SMM ADC12 price was raised by RMB 100 130 per tonne from the previous day to RMB 23,700 per tonne. The core driver came from the cost side, as aluminium scrap fluctuated at highs, compliant supply sources were tight, and supply contracted on a phased basis, providing strong price support. However, downstream demand remained weak, with end-users only maintaining rigid restocking, which constrained upside room for prices. Overall, the current market remains caught in a tug-of-war between "strong cost support" and "weak demand suppression," and prices are expected to continue to move sideways in the short term.

Aluminium market summary: Macro front, the US and Iran plan to sign a letter of intent to formally end hostilities and initiate 30-day negotiations, with geopolitical risk trajectory still to be observed; the US Fed meeting minutes were far more hawkish than expectations, with most policymakers supporting policy tightening, and tightening liquidity expectations are overall bearish for metal prices. Recently, the heads of state of both the US and Russia have visited China in succession, which is expected to yield preliminary results in economic and trade areas. Fundamentals side, overseas supply gaps and low inventory still provide bottom support, but high domestic inventory remains the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Coupled with weak spot market transaction performance, this further limits upside room for aluminium prices. In the short term, aluminium prices are expected to continue with LME outperforming SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

RUSAL introduces proprietary software for anode production automation

Fri, 22 May 2026 04:55:00 +0530

RUSAL has developed and deployed proprietary software to automate control of anode baking furnaces at its Sayanogorsk Aluminium Smelter as part of a wider modernisation programme to improve production efficiency, process flexibility, and operational performance.

The software, created by RUSAL's Engineering Department, controls burners and furnace systems used in anode production. According to the company, the solution improves furnace operation efficiency and enables production teams to adapt and extend system functionality to meet evolving operational requirements.

The implementation formed part of a phased modernisation of all three anode baking furnaces at Sayanogorsk, completed this year with a total investment of approximately USD 200 million. Following the upgrade, annual baked-anode production capacity is expected to rise from 480,000 tonnes to 535,000 tonnes.

Baking is one of the most energy-intensive and technically sensitive stages of anode production; process stability directly affects anode quality, furnace efficiency, and overall smelter performance. Automated control systems are being adopted across the aluminium industry to optimise energy use, improve process consistency, and reduce operational downtime.

RUSAL says the software architecture supports further development of advanced process-control methods, including neural-network-based approaches for furnace management and optimisation.

This development reflects broader industry efforts to digitalise core production processes through advanced automation and AI-assisted optimisation technologies. Carbon anodes are a critical consumable in aluminium smelting: they conduct the electric current used to convert alumina into aluminium. During operation, anodes are gradually consumed and must be replaced, so production stability and process efficiency are essential for reliable smelter operations.

The company added that the software may be implemented at its other anode production facilities.

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Note: This article has been issued by RUSAL and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Gulf aluminium output falls 35% y-o-y as Middle East crisis disrupts smelters

Thu, 21 May 2026 23:30:00 +0530

Primary aluminium production in the Gulf dropped to its weakest level in more than a decade in April as the ongoing Iran war disrupted smelter operations and raw material supplies across the region, according to preliminary data released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) on Wednesday.

The Gulf produced 330,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in April, marking a 35 per cent decline from the same month in 2025, the IAI said. The sharp fall highlights the growing pressure on aluminium producers in the region as the conflict continues to affect logistics and supply chains.

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The Gulf accounts for around 8 per cent of global primary aluminium production, while also serving as a major supplier to key international markets, including Japan and the United States. The region supplies approximately 28 per cent of Japan’s aluminium imports and 21 per cent of imports into the US.

“What we are seeing in April’s numbers is probably not the floor, it is a further deterioration that brings Gulf output to levels not seen in over a decade,” said Jonathan Grant.

Also read: European Union adds safeguard to US trade pact over aluminium and steel tariffs

Grant said smelters in the Gulf are struggling to replenish raw material inventories because shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted by the conflict. Producers are now attempting to secure alternative land transport routes in an effort to maintain operations.

The disruption in Gulf production also weighed on global aluminium output. Worldwide primary aluminium production fell 2.1 per cent year on year to 5.92 million tonnes in April, according to the IAI data.

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China, however, continued to expand output during the period. Estimated Chinese primary aluminium production rose 1.5 per cent year on year to 3.68 million tonnes in April, partially offsetting declines in other regions.

Citi downgrades Norsk Hydro after aluminium rally boosts shares

Thu, 21 May 2026 11:50:00 +0530

Norsk Hydro has been downgraded to “neutral” from “buy” by Citi Research after the company’s shares surged around 25 per cent since February on the back of rising aluminium prices.

Citi also increased its target price for Norsk Hydro shares to NKr110 (USD 12.1) from NKr105 (USD 11.55).

According to the brokerage, aluminium prices have climbed roughly 20 per cent so far this year, outperforming copper, which has risen around 12 per cent over the same period.

Citi said the rally in aluminium prices has been largely driven by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, which have reportedly removed close to 3 million tonnes of aluminium production capacity from the market. That accounts for around 4 per cent of global aluminium supply and roughly 11 per cent of production capacity outside China.

Another 4 million tonnes of aluminium production capacity remains exposed to the conflict zone, the brokerage added.

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Citi noted that stronger aluminium prices were the main reason behind its earlier upgrade of Norsk Hydro earlier this year, although the price surge happened for different reasons than initially expected.

Norsk Hydro shares reportedly outperformed other global aluminium producers by around 15 per cent in the two months leading up to the downgrade.

Despite the rally, Citi said consensus forecasts for aluminium prices through 2027 still remain below current spot prices. Analysts currently estimate aluminium prices around USD 3,067 per tonne, compared with spot prices close to USD 3,500 per tonne.

Following Norsk Hydro’s first-quarter 2026 results, Citi raised its forecast for the company’s underlying EBITDA for 2026 by 9.3 per cent to NKr37 billion (USD 4.07 billion). Its 2027 EBITDA estimate was also increased to NKr38.8 billion (USD 4.268 billion).

The brokerage lifted its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to NKr8.92, while the 2027 estimate was raised to NKr9.18.

Citi estimated combined EBITDA from Norsk Hydro’s downstream Metals Markets and Extrusions businesses at NKr6.5 billion (USD 715 million) in 2026 and NKr7.3 billion (USD 803 million) in 2027.

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According to the brokerage, a 10 per cent move in aluminium prices could add approximately NKr7.3 billion (USD 803 million) to Norsk Hydro’s group EBITDA, effectively offsetting the contribution from its downstream operations.

Norsk Hydro’s energy division reported EBITDA of NKr4.15 billion (USD 456.5 million) in 2025, compared with NKr3.54 billion (USD 389.4 million) in 2024. Citi currently forecasts EBITDA of NKr3.38 billion (USD 371.8 million) for the segment in 2026.

The brokerage noted that earnings from the energy business are largely influenced by Norwegian rainfall levels and domestic electricity prices rather than broader global energy market trends.

Citi’s bull-case valuation for Norsk Hydro stands at NKr137 per share (USD 15.07), implying potential upside of 31 per cent, while its bear-case target of NKr81 (USD 8.91) suggests downside risk of around 22 per cent.

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NALCO reports governance compliance challenges in FY2026 secretarial review

Thu, 21 May 2026 09:04:00 +0530

National Aluminium Company Limited has released its Annual Secretarial Compliance Report for the year ended 31st March, 2026 covering compliance of corporate governance and regulatory requirements.

The report stated that it conducted a detailed review of internal records, statutory filings and governance practices as part of its annual compliance assessment process.

A key issue highlighted during the review was the company’s inability to consistently maintain the required composition of non-executive and independent directors on its board during certain periods of FY2026.

According to the report, NALCO did not fully meet the requirement for maintaining a board with at least 50 per cent non-executive directors, while the required number of independent directors was also not available during parts of the fiscal year.

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The situation affected the composition of several important committees, including the Audit Committee, Nomination and Remuneration Committee and Stakeholders Relationship Committee.

NALCO clarified that, as a Government of India enterprise, appointments of directors and independent board members are handled by the central government and are outside the company’s direct control.

The company said it has remained in continuous communication with government authorities regarding the appointment process in an effort to restore full compliance with regulatory requirements.

NALCO also informed stock exchanges that it has submitted representations seeking waiver of fines related to the board composition issues while corrective processes remain underway.

The company stated that it continues to work toward ensuring full alignment with corporate governance and listing regulations.

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China’s April unwrought aluminium alloy exports soar, imports slump – core drivers & May outlook

Thu, 21 May 2026 11:30:00 +0530

Today, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for April 2026. Customs data showed:

Imports of unwrought aluminium alloy in April 2026 were 73,500 tonnes, down 15.4 per cent YoY and down 12.9 per cent M-o-M. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 were 313,900 tonnes, down 14.6 per cent Y-o-Y. Exports of unwrought aluminium alloy in April 2026 were 46,300 tonnes, hitting a single-month export high since July 2022, surging 179.7 per cent YoY and up 68.9 per cent M-o-M. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 were 111,200 tonnes, up 58.1 per cent Y-o-Y.

Import source structure, the concentration of import sources for unwrought aluminium alloy in China remained high in April 2026, with the top five sources accounting for approximately 77 per cent combined. Among them, Malaysia ranked first with imports of 22,600 tonnes, its share rebounding to 31 per cent; Thailand and Russia ranked second and third with imports of 12,700 tonnes and 11,800 tonnes respectively, while Russia's share edged down to 16 per cent; Vietnam and Mongolia ranked fourth and fifth with imports of 8,300 tonnes and 1,600 tonnes respectively. M-o-M from March, total imports decreased by 10,900 tonnes, with the decline mainly from Thailand and Russia, while Malaysia and Vietnam saw slight increases.

Trade mode, processing trade with supplied materials ranked first at 21,300 tonnes (46 per cent share), followed by Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area and processing trade with imported materials in second and third place, accounting for 21 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. Notably, Ordinary Trade exports reached 6,066 tonnes, with its share jumping to 13 per cent, a significant increase from the previous level of less than 1 per cent. Considering the 15 per cent export tariff, the current export structure remained dominated by processing trade (nearly 70 per cent), but driven by overseas supply gaps triggered by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, Ordinary Trade exports achieved a substantial increase.

Destination structure, Japan remained the top export destination, with April exports of 22,800 tonnes, accounting for as high as 49 per cent and occupying nearly half of the total, with processing trade with supplied materials as the primary export mode. Thailand, Morocco, South Korea, India, and Brazil formed the second tier, with individual country shares mostly ranging between 5 per cent-8 per cent, indicating relatively dispersed market distribution. Among them, Southeast Asian and Asian markets carried higher weight, reflecting regional manufacturing relocation and growing ex-China die-casting demand, providing important support for China's aluminium alloy exports.

Overall, in April 2026, China's unwrought aluminium alloy imports continued to pull back, while exports performed strongly, hitting a record single-month high. Import side, after March, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove LME aluminium prices to surge, compounded by logistics disruptions, pushing up ADC12 prices outside China, with import margins narrowing rapidly and turning into losses.

In April, losses continued to widen under the dual squeeze of elevated prices outside China and weak downward-fluctuating prices in China. Currently, ADC12 prices outside China are quoted at USD 3,340-3,420 per tonne, with per-tonnes import losses exceeding RMB 3,000, and imports in May are expected to shrink further. Export side, the supply gap outside China triggered by geopolitical conflicts released the export potential of aluminium alloys, and exports in May are expected to stay high. The sustainability of future exports will mainly depend on the pace of supply chain recovery in the Middle East and the long-term growth potential of the die-casting market in Southeast Asia.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.