AlCircle: Latest primaryaluminium news update

APAA is pleased that Magnitude 7 Metals has restarted its aluminium smelter in Missouri

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:00:00 +0530

The American Primary Aluminium Association (APAA) has welcomed the decision by Magnitude 7 Metals to reopen its primary aluminium smelter in Marston, Missouri, calling the move a significant positive development for domestic aluminium production and US manufacturing.

The company is targeting to bring an extra 75,000 tonnes of annual primary aluminium production onstream by the end of 2026, reactivating potline one at the plant. The restart is anticipated to bring back some of the US primary aluminium capacity that has been lost in recent years.

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Responding to the announcement, David Kaplan of Otto von Blue, owner of Magnitude 7 Metals, said the decision is a sign of renewed confidence in the US manufacturing sector and will create hundreds of manufacturing jobs in Marston. He said the investment was also supported by the 50 per cent US aluminium tariff introduced under President Donald Trump.

APAA President Mark Duffy said the restart “is an important development for the local economy and the country’s industrial base.” He said the additional capacity, along with Century Aluminium’s ongoing restart at its Mt. Holly facility, is expected to increase domestic primary aluminium production by more than 20 per cent, enhancing the resilience of the US aluminium industry.

The Marston smelter in southeast Missouri has been a historically important producer of primary aluminium in the United States. The restart is another step towards increasing domestic aluminium production and reducing imported metal.

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Aluminium heads for biggest monthly loss since 2008: Here's why

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0530

Aluminium is on course for its steepest monthly decline since October 2008 as improving expectations for Middle Eastern supply rapidly unwound the rally triggered by the Iran conflict.The metal has dropped more than 15 per cent so far in June after an interim US-Iran peace deal boosted optimism that shipments from the Middle East would resume with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The development erased gains accumulated over the previous three months, which had been driven by concerns over disruptions from a region that accounts for nearly one-tenth of global aluminium output.

The market's reversal has also been supported by record aluminium exports from China and continued voyages through the Strait of Hormuz to replenish alumina reserves. Over the past few weeks, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium market has shifted into contango, with prompt contracts trading below longer-dated ones, signalling that concerns over an immediate supply shortage have eased.

According to Peng Dinggui, an analyst at Zhongtai Futures Co., aluminium premiums outside China declined rapidly after news of the truce, indicating that supplies are no longer as tight as previously feared. He said the sharp fall in aluminium prices caught many investors off guard, triggering a degree of panic in the market, with some Chinese investors expecting prices to decline further.

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Broader macroeconomic factors have added to the downward pressure. Alongside other industrial metals, aluminium has been affected by a stronger US dollar since mid-May, making the metal more expensive for many buyers. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer, or even raise them, to curb inflation have also weakened the demand outlook.

On the London Metal Exchange, aluminium rose 0.5 per cent to USD 3,103 per tonne as of 12:24 p.m. in Shanghai. Despite the intraday gain, the metal remained down 15.4 per cent for June, marking its biggest monthly decline since October 2008.

Elsewhere in the metals market, copper advanced 0.4 per cent to USD 13,332 per tonne but was still 2.2 per cent lower for the month, while iron ore slipped 0.1 per cent to USD 98.75 per tonne in Singapore.

Zinc climbed 0.2 per cent to USD 3,482 per tonne after state-backed researcher Beijing Antaike Information Co. reported that China's major smelters plan to reduce their zinc concentrate consumption this year by 600,000 to 1 million tonnes to limit losses.

However, Liu Xiaoyi, an analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., said the planned reduction would not be enough to eliminate China's domestic zinc surplus this year. She estimated the cuts would lower refined zinc output by around 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes, equivalent to as much as 4 per cent of the country's total zinc production last year.

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Slovalco to restart 75,000 tonnes of curtailed aluminium capacity, supplying a critical raw material for Europe

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0530

The aluminium plant Slovalco has reached an agreement with the Slovak government enabling the restart of 75,000 tonnes of primary aluminium production capacity.

The agreement with the Slovak government marks an important milestone in resuming full operations at Slovalco after operations were curtailed in 2022 due to high power prices. It establishes the long-term framework conditions necessary for aluminium production, including a robust compensation scheme for indirect carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). In addition, Slovalco has entered a long-term commercial power purchase agreement (PPA) with Vodohospodárska výstavba, š.p.

The decision to restart Slovalco is dependent on the approval of the updated Slovak scheme for compensation of indirect carbon costs (ICC) by the European Commission.

Slovalco will invest EUR 100 million to restart production, which will support more than 200 jobs in the region. Aluminium production is expected to start during the fourth quarter of 2026.

The agreements enable the restart of the first 75,000 tonnes of a total 175,000 tonnes annual aluminium production capacity at the Slovalco plant. A restart of the remaining 100,000 tonnes will depend on the framework conditions beyond 2030 combined with additional power contracts.

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Restart strengthens European supply and industrial resilience

“Aluminium is essential for the European economy and critical for everything from power grids and renewable energy to transport, defence, and infrastructure. The agreement on Slovalco is important both for Slovakia and for Europe as a whole,” says Eivind Kallevik, President and CEO of Hydro.

EU based aluminium production capacity has been under significant pressure from high energy costs and increasing global competition. 50 per cent of the EU’s aluminium production has been curtailed since 2022.

“Slovalco is a highly energy-efficient aluminium plant and, with a production capacity of 175,000 tonnes per year, Slovalco has the potential to restore a meaningful share of the EU’s domestic primary aluminium production. Restarting the smelter will strengthen Europe’s industrial resilience, reduce dependence on imports and supply European customers with aluminium carrying significantly lower carbon emissions than the global average,” says Kallevik.

Framework conditions for European competitiveness

Predictable and competitive framework conditions are essential for European aluminium production to stay competitive, particularly long-term access to affordable electricity and ETS-based compensation for indirect carbon cost that global competitors are not exposed to.

“European authorities must ensure balanced policy frameworks where instruments such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and ETS Indirect Carbon Cost Compensation can prevent carbon leakage and maintain a low‑carbon industry in Europe,” says Kallevik.

Hydro owns 55.3 per cent of the aluminium plant Slovalco, and 44.7 per cent is owned by Penta Investments Group. The decision to curtail the primary aluminium production at the plant was made in August 2022.

Note: This article has been issued by Norsk Hydro and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Aluminium futures continue to decline, and the market trading atmosphere remains sluggish

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:23:00 +0530

In morning trading, the operating centre of the SHFE aluminium 2606 contract was lower than the same period on the previous trading day. Affected by low aluminium prices, some sellers continued to hold back from selling. Downstream just-in-time procurement demand, combined with bearish sentiment, kept overall market procurement sentiment sluggish. Mainstream transactions were at a premium of RMB 10 per tonne to RMB 20 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium July contract. The east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.83 today, down 0.05 D-o-D; the procurement sentiment index was 2.73, down 0.04 D-o-D.

The central China market transaction atmosphere remained sluggish today. The futures aluminium market continued its downward trend, fostering significant price drop fears among downstream processing enterprises, with only some firms not locked into long-term contracts making just-in-time procurement. With the excessive drop in aluminium prices, suppliers' willingness to sell also remained low, and their willingness to hold prices firm was weak. The actual transaction price range in central China ultimately centred around a discount of RMB 30-50 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium July contract. The central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.86 today, down 0.01 D-o-D; the procurement sentiment index was 2.10, down 0.02 D-o-D.

On the inventory front, aluminium ingot inventories in major consumption regions fell by 1,550 tonnes D-o-D today, with destocking mainly occurring in Guangdong and Wuxi.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

Trump-backed Oklahoma aluminium smelter faces a 60-day pause

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 07:40:00 +0530

Oklahoma’s Inola City Council has approved a 60-day moratorium on the construction of the proposed aluminium smelter in Oklahoma, the US. Although strongly backed by US President Donald J. Trump, the verdict has temporarily put the high-profile project on hold as authorities assess concerns over its environmental impact and ownership structure.

The development marks the latest setback for the project, which has attracted national attention after receiving strong backing from former US President Donald Trump, who has described it as critical to America's manufacturing strength and national security.

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Council halts construction pending further review

The temporary suspension follows a heated public debate, with residents, industry supporters and local officials presenting sharply contrasting views on the proposed facility.

Supporters argued that expanding domestic aluminium production is essential for defence and industrial resilience.

"Yet none of these capabilities can exist without the foundational materials that build them. Aluminium is the backbone of our modern military," one supporter said during the council meeting.

Opponents, however, supported by residents such as Carl Day, who cited the example of Century Aluminum’s Kentucky smelter, warned about the project’s potential effects on agriculture, water resources and the local environment.

Foreign ownership and political angles

The proposed Oklahoma smelter is being developed by UAE-based state-owned Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), which holds a 60 per cent stake in the venture. Century Aluminum owns the remaining 40 per cent, according to the Oklahoma Attorney General's Office.

The ownership structure has become a focal point in the debate, with critics questioning whether a strategically important US aluminium facility should be majority-controlled by a foreign state-owned enterprise.

Republican candidate and Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond has filed a lawsuit seeking to pause the project’s progress.

Apart from citing environmental concerns and the effect on nearby farming activities in his petition, Drummond stated, "The controlling hand behind the largest smelter ever proposed on American soil belongs not to Oklahomans, nor even to Americans, but to a foreign sovereign more than 7,000 miles away."

Hence, the proposed smelter then emerged as a key issue in Oklahoma's gubernatorial race.

Drummond’s runoff opponent, Mike Mazzei, who has received Trump's endorsement, has publicly expressed support for the project, calling it an important investment for both the US economy and national security.

Trump also reiterated his support on Truth Social, describing the facility as a "magnificent, job-producing, desperately needed Aluminium Plant" and stressing that expanding domestic aluminium production is "all about National Security."

With the moratorium now in effect, construction will remain suspended for at least two months while city officials undertake further evaluation of the project's environmental, economic and regulatory implications.

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Middle East situation adds new uncertainties, aluminium prices continue in the doldrums

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 06:56:00 +0530

Futures: SHFE aluminium daytime session closed at RMB 22,610 per tonne, edging up 0.11 per cent. The price is far below all key moving averages (MA5 ≈ 22,876, MA10 ≈ 23,323.5, MA30 = 24,021.67, MA60 = 24,425.75), with the moving average system in a bearish alignment and diverging, keeping the weak pattern unchanged. The MACD indicator shows DIF = -451.31 and DEA = -317.07, with a bearish crossover pointing downward. The negative histogram narrowed to -268.49 (previous day -273.16), indicating bearish momentum has slightly weakened but remains high. Trading volume shrank to 114,500 lots, and selling pressure in the market has eased somewhat. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 22,400-22,800. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,095 per tonne, down 0.32 per cent, with intraday fluctuations between 3,094.5 and 3,103. The price is far below all key moving averages (MA5 = 3,136.4, MA10 = 3,220.75, MA30 = 3,471.8, MA60 = 3,514.03), and the moving averages are in a bearish alignment, extending the weakness. The MACD indicator shows DIF = -124.67 and DEA = -92.37, with a bearish crossover pointing downward. The negative histogram narrowed to -64.59 (previous day -72.07), and bearish momentum has slightly weakened. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,080-3,130.

Macro front: New uncertainties emerged in the Middle East. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that Iran has "basically no plan to hold meetings at any level with the US side in the coming days." Baghaei noted the activities likely to take place in Doha on July 1 will mainly focus on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding's terms. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ansari said the US presidential envoy and Trump's son-in-law visited Qatar, but this did not include direct negotiations with the Iranian side.

Fundamentals: Supply side, according to SMM data, China's aluminium production rebounded W-o-W this week, mainly driven by production ramp-up at newly commissioned capacity and resumption of idle capacity. Last week, the proportion of liquid aluminium rose 0.2 percentage points W-o-W, and casting ingot volume further declined. Outside China, previously high prices stimulated accelerated commissioning of new projects, and as these new projects are energised and ramp up production, operating aluminium capacity outside China is expected to further rebound M-o-M. Inventory side, this week aluminium inventory continued its smooth destocking trend. As of this Monday, China's aluminium ingot social inventory decreased by 40,000 tonnes from last Thursday and by 82,000 tonnes from last Monday. The weakening aluminium price prompted a recovery in downstream buying sentiment, driving the destocking of aluminium ingots. Export side, last week the SHFE/LME price ratio rapidly recovered, sharply narrowing the profit margin that had been driving large volumes of aluminium semis exports. New orders for some segments have already declined, and as orders on hand are gradually fulfilled, aluminium semis exports face the risk of reduction if export margins cannot recover later.

Primary aluminium market: In early trading, the SHFE aluminium 2606 contract's center ran below the level seen at the same time the previous trading day. Weighed down by the falling aluminium prices, some sellers held back from selling yesterday, and overall willingness to sell weakened somewhat. Market buying sentiment was sluggish, and overall buying sentiment in the market declined somewhat yesterday. Mainstream market transactions were at parity to a premium of RMB 10 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium July contract. Yesterday, the east China market selling sentiment index closed at 2.88, down 0.29 from the previous day; the buying sentiment index was 2.76, down 0.10 from the previous day. Yesterday, SHFE aluminium futures plunged, and the trading atmosphere in the central China market remained sluggish. Downstream processing enterprises exhibited a notable sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, mostly staying on the sidelines. Moreover, as the last trading day of June, many processing plants took inventory and digested inventories, with low buying interest. The sharp drop in absolute prices also reduced suppliers' willingness to sell. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market centred around a discount of RMB 20-40 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium July contract. Yesterday, the central China market selling sentiment index was 2.87, down 0.03 from the previous day; the buying sentiment index was 2.11, down 0.02 from the previous day.

Aluminium scrap: Yesterday, SMM A00 spot aluminium closed at RMB 22,500 per tonne, down RMB 440 per tonne from the previous trading day, and the overall scrap aluminium market followed the decline. By product category, bare bright aluminium wire and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint dropped by as much as RMB 400 per tonne, old scrap fell by RMB 300 per tonne, and aluminium tense scrap generally fell by RMB 200 per tonne. As for the price spread, on June 30, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan stood at RMB 1,780 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 670 per tonne. The supply side remained tight, and supervision of the reverse invoicing policy tightened further. Small and medium-sized scrap utilisation enterprises in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, and other regions continued to reduce or halt production, pushing up the scarcity of compliant duty-paid aluminium scrap. On the import side, due to a 1-3 month lag in shipping schedules, port arrivals of aluminium scrap are expected to stay at low levels from June to August. Additionally, the UAE imposed a 4-month temporary export ban on aluminium scrap starting June 3, further intensifying expectations of tighter supply of high-quality scrap in Asia. This week, the aluminium scrap market is expected to remain in the doldrums at high levels, but with limited downside room. The mainstream range of shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) is expected to operate between RMB 19,300 and 19,900 per tonne (tax-exclusive). Constraints from the reverse invoicing policy and the delayed contraction in imported aluminium scrap will continue to form bottom support, while weak off-season demand and low downstream operating rates will cap upside room. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of policy compliance, US-Iran peace talks and the progress of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the pace of overseas aluminium scrap arrivals, and changes in downstream operating rates in China.

Secondary aluminium alloy: Yesterday, ADC12 market offers continued to decline overall, with SMM ADC12 price falling RMB 150 per tonne from the previous day to RMB 23,800 per tonne. SHFE aluminium and cast aluminium alloy futures weakened, suppressing spot offers, with enterprises following suit with price cuts. Meanwhile, the decline in procurement costs for aluminium scrap was relatively limited, and together with tight tax invoices and persistent spot resource tightness, cost support remained in place, leading to pronounced sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices. Overall, although ADC12 prices have pulled back dragged by futures, cost support and spot tightness have limited the decline, while divergence in market quotes persisted. In the near term, ADC12 prices are expected to mainly consolidate on a subdued note, but the downside room is relatively limited.

Summary of aluminium market trends: The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and uncertainty remains over the resumption of transit through the strait. The Fed's hawkish pivot bolstered the US dollar index, suppressing nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminium prices in and outside China declined. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminium prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.

LME aluminium price drops sharply: Cash falls nearly 2%, stocks close at 305,225t

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 05:09:00 +0530

The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price graph reflected a sharp drop in figures on the final trading session for June. Barring the stable alumina price, a downward trend was noted across all the pricing segments at the close of June 30.

The LME aluminium cash bid, as well as the offer price, reported a fall of 1.74 per cent day-on-day on June 30. While the bid dropped from USD 3,160 per tonne to USD 3,105 per tonne, the offer shifted from USD 3,160.5 per tonne to USD 3,105.5 per tonne.

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In the near-term contracts, both the LME aluminium three-month bid and offer prices reported a drop of 1.71 per cent. While the bid dipped from USD 3,164 per tonne on June 29 to USD 3,110 per tonne on June 30, the offer eased from USD 3,166 per tonne to USD 3,112 per tonne.

In terms of the longer-dated contracts, both the Dec-27 bid and offer prices contracted by 0.75 per cent from the previous session. The bid closed at USD 3,035 per tonne, slipping from USD 3,058 per tonne, and the offer slumped to USD 3,40 per tonne to USD 3,063 per tonne.

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The LME aluminium three-month Asian Reference Price closed at USD 3,085.5 per tonne on June 30, down 0.08 per cent from USD 3,088 per tonne on June 29.

LME aluminium inventory recorded further declines at the close of June. The opening stocks slipped from 306,725 tonnes to 305,225 tonnes, marking a 0.49 per cent decrease.

Similarly, live Warrants settled at 246,600 tonnes, representing a 0.08 per cent difference from the 246,800 tonnes reported in the previous trading session.

Cancelled warrants, too, closed at 57,075 tonnes, easing 2.31 per cent from 58,425 tonnes.

LME alumina Platts remained stable at USD 310.19 per tonne at the close of June 30.

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Did US tariffs cut America's reliance on Canadian aluminium? The numbers tell a different story

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 17:30:00 +0530

Washington's tariff strategy aimed to revive domestic aluminium production and reduce reliance on Canadian imports. A year later, the numbers tell a more nuanced story — one where prices moved faster than production, diversification outpaced displacement, and one of the world's most integrated aluminium supply chains proved far more resilient than expected.

More than 2.9 million tonnes of aluminium left Canadian ports for global markets in 2025. Of that, roughly 2.3 million tonnes were shipped to the United States, more than the combined exports of the next nine supplying countries. That is the relationship Washington set out to change.

When the US raised Section 232 tariffs on aluminium imports from 25 per cent to 50 per cent, the objective was to make imported aluminium less competitive, stimulate domestic smelting, and gradually reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Given Canada's dominance in the US import market, any meaningful change in America's aluminium supply chain would inevitably begin there.

A year later, the debate has moved beyond tariff announcements. The real question is whether the policy changed how aluminium moves across North America, or whether the cost of moving it simply increased.

And, if you ask, why the question matters, it is because aluminium fortifies industries from automotive and aerospace to construction, packaging and defence. For manufacturers, procurement teams and policymakers alike, the effectiveness of the strategy is best measured not by the tariff rate itself, but by what happened afterwards: Did trade flows change? Did domestic production rise? Did dependence on Canadian aluminium actually decline? The evidence suggests the answers are more complex than either supporters or critics anticipated.

Canada's aluminium industry entered the tariff era from a position of strength

To understand why the tariffs have produced mixed results, it helps to understand Canada's role in the North American market. Canada is the world's fourth-largest primary aluminium producer and one of the largest exporters of low-carbon aluminium, with more than 90 per cent of its primary metal produced using hydroelectric power.

Production has remained remarkably stable despite economic disruptions and shifting trade policy, rising from approximately 3.1 million tonnes in 2020 to around 3.35 million tonnes in 2025.

That spirit shows in export performance. Canada's cumulative aluminium exports rose from 3.119 million tonnes in 2020 to 3.319 million tonnes in 2024, while 2025 exports have stayed broadly in line with last year's pace, clearly hinting that although trade routes have gradually diversified, Canada's position as a leading global exporter has stayed intact.

The US has been central to that success. Between 2020 and 2025, Canadian aluminium exports to the US consistently ranged in the 3 million tonnes bracket annually, peaking in 2024. 2025 shipments stand at around 2.97 million tonnes.

Why Canada became America's aluminium lifeline

The United States imports roughly half the aluminium it consumes, a dependence built not by recent trade policy but by decades of structural decline in domestic production, as high electricity costs, ageing infrastructure and global competition steadily reduced US output and created a supply gap that imports continue to fill.

Canada has become the natural supplier, supplying approximately 3.2 million tonnes to the US in 2024 alone, well over half of US primary aluminium imports, with no other supplier coming close. The reasons extend beyond geography: Canadian smelters benefit from abundant, competitively priced hydroelectric power, lowering the carbon footprint of primary aluminium, while efficient rail, road and maritime logistics have helped Canada build one of the world's most competitive aluminium industries.

Over time these advantages have evolved into something larger than a trading relationship. Canadian aluminium is rolled, extruded and fabricated into beverage cans, automotive components, aerospace materials and electrical products in US factories before reaching customers across North America, functioning as part of regional manufacturing rather than a conventional import-export transaction. That's why replacing Canada is far harder than replacing an ordinary supplier.

According to Alcoa, even if every idled US primary smelter resumed production, the country would still face an estimated 3.6-million-tonne supply deficit, requiring billions in investment, cheap electricity and years of capacity expansion to close. The tariff strategy, in other words, was not attempting to replace a marginal trading partner. It was attempting to reshape one of the world's most integrated industrial supply chains.

The tariff strategy met market realities

From a policy perspective, the latest escalation of Section 232 tariffs followed a familiar economic principle: higher import costs should improve the competitiveness of domestic production, encourage investment in idled smelters, and gradually reduce dependence on imports.

Primary aluminium is among the world's most capital-intensive industries. Restarting an idle smelter or building new capacity requires years of planning, low-cost electricity, regulatory approvals and sustained investor confidence.

Manufacturing supply chains move just as slowly: automotive manufacturers, beverage can producers and aerospace suppliers cannot simply replace long-established suppliers within weeks, given how material qualifications, commercial agreements and logistics networks evolve over decades. As a result, the first signs of the tariff policy were unlikely to show up in production figures. They appeared somewhere else.

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Prices moved before trade did

If the tariffs were expected to reduce imports immediately, the market delivered a different verdict. Within days of the increase, the US Midwest aluminium premium climbed to around USD 0.62 per pound, almost 190 per cent higher than before the announcement. For downstream manufacturers, procurement costs rose almost overnight even though supply chains remained largely unchanged. Prices reacted immediately; trade did not. For many manufacturers, continuing to buy Canadian aluminium remained less disruptive than attempting to rebuild supply chains built over decades.

Did US buyers reduce their reliance on Canadian aluminium?

The evidence suggests yes, but only to a limited extent. Canada remains, by a considerable margin, the United States' largest supplier of primary aluminium. While higher tariffs altered pricing and prompted companies to reassess sourcing, they did not fundamentally change the structural advantages underpinning decades of bilateral trade.

The clearer shift occurred in Canada's export strategy rather than US demand. According to Statistics Canada, the United States accounted for roughly 94 per cent of Canada's aluminium exports in 2024. During the April-August 2025 period, that share eased to 83.4 per cent, indicating Canadian producers had begun reducing dependence on a single market. The change, however, was driven less by weakening US demand than by stronger penetration into alternative destinations: exports to the Netherlands increased by more than 74 per cent, shipments to Italy nearly doubled, and exports to Poland rose almost fourfold. These gains remain small relative to Canada's US business, but they reflect a strategic effort to broaden market access.

For Washington, the picture looked different. Although buyers explored additional sourcing options, Canadian aluminium continued to dominate US imports because few suppliers could match Canada's combination of scale, logistics, product quality and delivery reliability. The numbers point towards diversification rather than displacement.

Could other suppliers realistically replace Canada?

Tariffs inevitably create openings for competing exporters. Countries including the UAE, Bahrain, Norway, Australia and India possess significant production capacity and have all grown their presence in global markets over the past decade. Yet replacing Canada requires far more than available metal. Canadian aluminium benefits from short transport distances, integrated logistics, long-established customer relationships and one of the world's lowest-carbon primary aluminium production systems, advantages built over decades that cannot be replicated simply because import duties rose.

Domestic substitution faces similar constraints. As the industry leaders have noted, restarting every idled US smelter would still leave an estimated 3.6-million-tonne supply deficit. Without substantial investment in new smelting capacity, the United States is likely to remain structurally dependent on imported primary aluminium for years to come.

What does this mean for the future of North America's aluminium trade?

If the past year has shown anything, it's that North America's aluminium market is evolving, not fragmenting. For Canadian producers, the lesson is that the US will remain the industry's largest customer, but reducing exposure to a single market has become an increasingly important commercial objective, with growth in European exports suggesting diversification is becoming part of long-term strategy. Netherlands, Mexico and Italy have joined the import toppers list when coming to Canadian aluminium.

Higher tariffs undoubtedly improve conditions for domestic producers, but they're only one element of a larger industrial equation. Expanding US primary aluminium production will ultimately depend on investment, affordable electricity, technological upgrades and long-term policy certainty rather than tariffs alone. Industrial policy can create incentives; only investment can create capacity.

The market is already responding: Canadian producers are diversifying export destinations, US manufacturers are reassessing procurement strategies, and investors are once again evaluating the viability of domestic smelting projects. Rather than dismantling North America's aluminium trade, the tariffs have accelerated its evolution towards a more diversified, risk-conscious supply chain.

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The verdict

So, did US tariffs really reduce America's dependence on Canadian aluminium? Not entirely, but they have begun changing how that dependence is managed. The tariffs reshaped market behaviour faster than they reshaped market structure: raising procurement costs before reducing import volumes, encouraging diversification before reducing dependence, and strengthening investment signals before creating additional production capacity.

Perhaps most importantly, they showed that America's reliance on Canadian aluminium was never simply a function of tariff policy. It was built on geography, abundant low-carbon energy, decades of industrial investment and one of the world's most efficient cross-border manufacturing ecosystems — advantages that remain firmly in place even as Canadian exporters expand beyond North America, US manufacturers emphasise supplier diversification, and domestic producers benefit from stronger investment incentives. Each development points to a market adapting rather than resisting change.

The latest tariffs did not dismantle one of the world's most integrated aluminium supply chains. Instead, they revealed its resilience, and that may prove to be the most enduring takeaway from the latest chapter in the US-Canada aluminium trade.

US President Trump and Governor Stitt open up about Oklahoma’s Inola aluminium smelter debate

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 19:50:00 +0530

A proposed aluminium smelter in Inola, Oklahoma, continues to divide residents, with the debate drawing comments from US President Donald Trump and Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt.

Many residents are calling for a moratorium on the project, while supporters want the development to move forward. The issue has also become part of a political dispute after Oklahoma Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Gentner Drummond opposed the project and sought to block it through a lawsuit.

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump criticised Drummond’s position, saying he wanted to stop what he described as a major job-creating aluminium project. Trump wrote that Drummond wanted to "dethrone a magnificent, job-producing, desperately needed aluminium plant that will be one of the best projects ever conceived or built in the Great State of Oklahoma."

Governor Kevin Stitt shared the President's post on Facebook and criticised Drummond's legal action against the project. Stitt said the Inola City Council was considering a moratorium that would slow the project, create uncertainty and put the proposed aluminium smelter at risk.

Dozens of Inola residents attended the city council meeting to express their views before the vote on the proposed moratorium. The project has been under discussion for several months, and many residents have repeated their concerns about the development.

Resident Roger Eaton said, “The environment is my largest concern, and I’ve seen so many examples throughout history… Everything was great until one day it wasn’t.”

According to FOX23, the proposed smelter did not originate this year and has been under development since the Biden Administration. The broadcaster also spoke with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) about their regulatory roles and the information available to residents.

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FOX23 also interviewed Audrey Robertson, Assistant Secretary of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation at the Department of Energy. She said she understood residents' concerns and noted that the department had provided USD 500 for the project.

Robertson said Inola's location, with access to the Port of Inola, offers logistical advantages for an aluminium smelter. She said the site provides efficient access to bauxite, one of the main raw materials used to produce aluminium, and could reduce the number of trucks and trains needed to transport materials.

She added, “It’s the most efficient way to be the most efficient place to build a smelter.” Governor Stitt also warned that Oklahoma could lose jobs and investment if the project does not move forward. He said other states could benefit from the investment, stronger domestic supply chains and long-term economic growth if the smelter is built elsewhere.

In June, the increase in the proportion of liquid aluminium in aluminium production exceeded expectations, and it is expected to edge up in July

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 11:20:00 +0530

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminium production in June 2026 (30 days) rose 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y and fell 3.1 per cent M-o-M. Although weak domestic demand dragged down various sectors broadly under pressure, export demand for aluminium semis provided effective support for domestic liquid aluminium consumption.

The proportion of liquid aluminium edged up, rising by 0.7 percentage points M-o-M to 77.2 per cent, slightly exceeding expectations at the start of the month. The core increment came from decent processing profits for some products, which boosted liquid aluminium demand. Based on SMM's liquid aluminium proportion calculation data, China's aluminium casting ingot output in June fell 3.8 per cent YoY and 6.2 per cent M-o-M.

Capacity changes: As of June month-end, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminium capacity at around 46.289 million tonnes, up 0.17 per cent M-o-M.

Production forecast: Entering July 2026, the aluminium price spread between in and outside China narrowed, squeezing arbitrage profits for aluminium semis exports. However, previously finalized export orders still required concentrated fulfilment, so overall aluminium semis export volumes remained underpinned.

In addition, hefty processing profits at downstream fabricators boosted their willingness to purchase liquid aluminium directly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to rise by 0.4 percentage points to 77.2 per cent.