A Few Words On Terrorism

Palestinians invited to sign unity deal next week

2011-04-29T06:45:00.000-07:00

GAZA, April 29 (Reuters) - Egypt has invited Palestinian leaders to Cairo next week for the signing of a unity agreement that would end a rivalry among ruling factions, Palestinian officials said on Friday.
The Egyptian-brokered deal, announced unexpectedly on Wednesday, calls for forming a new government acceptable to both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction, which is dominant in the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip Hamas's rulers.
Israel denounced the agreement, saying Abbas could not be a peace partner if he mends ties with Hamas, an Islamist group with a charter calling for Israel's destruction.
Western powers received cooly news of the unity deal, saying it was an important step, but made clear they expect any new administration to accept international demands, which include the recognition of Israel and a renunciation of violence.[1]

hm! As we can see after revolution Egypt changed its politics in the Middle East region. That's a second step which couldn't be seen during Mubarak was in power. First one as i remember was the renewal of diplomatic negotiations with Iran. So, can it really be true that Egypt started to renew ties with 'bad guys'?! Oh, yes! It seems to be true...

"According to the Pew Research Center, 89% of Egyptians say a post-Mubarak government "should follow the values and principles of Islam." And 62% want laws to enforce Shariah — the barbaric legal code practiced in much of the Mideast.
This may come as quite a jolt to the romantics in the Western press who expected liberalism to flower from Tahrir Square. But we're not the least surprised.
Pew's poll — based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews with Egyptian adults in April — merely confirms a similar one last spring. As we noted during the riots, Pew found that 84% favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim faith; 82% support stoning adulterers; and 77% think thieves should have their hands cut off."[2]
no comments...
And, as for me, the main question is who will came to power in Egypt and, of course, what role Egypt will have in the Muslim world.

A Few Words on the ‘Great Man-made River’

2011-04-28T03:58:00.000-07:00

A Few Words on the ‘Great Man-made River’

The Libyan war, which started two months ago, is still riveting world’s attention; till now Internet space is excited about nuances and process of this war. Speaking candidly, about month ago I also couldn’t hold myself from making an attempt to figure out possible consequences of this war event; today, I think, it’s time to write something about the Kaddafi regime which is already Libyan past.

Lyrical digression or thoughts about Libya: Unfortunately, we all became dependant on Mass Media and Libya’s war is not exclusion: the long confrontation between this country and western world made specific image of this country in the world. However, we should give the due to Gaddafi regime: “It is one of the few countries where the natural resources were used directly for increasing people's living standard without encumbering the country with debts or loans - in spite of the indisputable political

negatives Libya has the highest Human Development Index (HDI=0.755 as of 2010, 53^rd place in the world, evaluated by the United Nations based on life expectancy, education and gross domestic product per capita) among all African countries, even higher than some countries within EU and NATO (Bulgaria: 0.743, Turkey: 0.679 as of 2010). That's something undoubtedly worth paying an attention, regardless of all the objections which the western society may have to the specific form of socialism ruling in this Mediterranean country.[1]” But, unfortunately, all this numbers are ignored during the description of Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. I think, it’s time to see some really interesting and important steps that Libya made before the revolution of 2011, and in this post I will tell a few words about The Great Man-made River– the eighth world’s wonder as "another miracle in the desert."[2]. Also it “has been described as the "eighth wonder of the world". It carries more than five million cubic metres of water per day across the desert to coastal areas, vastly increasing the amount of arable land. The total cost of the huge project is expected to exceed $25 billion (US).”[3]. The main idea of this post is to point out some economical aspects of the Great Man-made River project; but before this I think it would be better to write some information on history of this project.

History of Saharan water reservoirs

So, speaking in short, Sahara Desert wasn’t area which has only sand with out drop of water. “Remnants of an ancient lake existing there between 750 thousand and 420 thousand years ago were found in south-western part of Libya (Fezzan). Scientists named it Megafezzan - with a surface area of 130 thousand km² (50,193 sq mi) it is definitely worth of bearing its name (compare with the largest of the Great Lakes - Lake Superior, with the surface of 82,000 km² [31,700 sq mi]). Local sediments are an extraordinary source of information about the climate changes in Sahara during the last 750 thousand years”[4]. “It is also noteworthy that this water originated mostly from the last ice age (therefore, the term "fossil"), and has accumulated in the reservoirs approximately 1 million - 10 000 years ago, when the climate was generally wet, rich in rainfall, and sufficient for maintaining a complex river system.”[5]

“Geological activity caused the up thrust of mountainous formations (Jabal Nefussa and Jabal Al Akhdar) and the associated downward movement formed natural underground basins. Between 38,000 and 10,000 years ago the climate of North Africa was temperate, during which time there was considerable rainfall in Libya. The excess rainfall infiltrated into porous sandstone and was trapped between layers, forming reservoirs of underground fresh-water.

In Libya there are four major underground basins, these being the Kufra basin, the Sirt basin, the Morzuk basin and the Hamada basin, the first three of which contain combined reserves of 35,000 cubic kilometers of water. These vast reserves offer almost unlimited amounts of water for the Libyan people.”[6]

During the oil-searches in 1960s the water was discovered[7] and about 30 years later The Great Man-Made River Project (GMMR) would be started.

History of the project

Speaking about history of the GMMR Project development can be point out 5 main phases:

§ First phase of the work began in 1984 in the most rough and arid south-eastern region of Libya, water having been transported from the well fields containing 234 drills through 1,600 km (994 mi) long pipeline into two coastal areas. Two reservoirs have storage capacity of 20 million m³ (706 million cu ft) of water. Transport capacity reaches 2 million m³ (70.6 million cu ft) per day. Power consumption: 65 MW. First water reached its destination in 1990.

§ Second phase brought the water finally to the Tripoli capital - 1,227 km (762 mi) long pipeline in the western part of the country is capable of transporting 2.5 million m³(88 million cu ft) of water per day and provides inhabitants with water containing more than twenty times less salt than the previous sources.

§ Third phase extended the first phase pipeline by another 383 kilometers (238 mi) deeper into the desert, where a new well field containing another 300 drills was constructed. Seven new pumping stations transport additional 1.68 million m³ (59.3 million cu ft) of water per day, whilst the whole journey to the final reservoirs takes approximately 9 days.

§ Fourth phase is of a relatively smaller scale, and will transport quarter of million m³(8.8 million cu ft) of water per day, using 621 kilometers (386 mi) of pipelines (plus 181 km [112 mi] of pipes within the well field itself), four pumping stations and three reservoirs.

§ Fifth phase will be the final one connecting the western and eastern transporting systems. With the pipeline being 190 kilometers (118 mi) long, transporting capacity of 0.98 million m³ (34.6 million cu ft) per day, two pumping stations, power consumption 43.6 MW, and one reservoir, it will be a smaller although important sibling of the preceding phases[8].

Amazing work, wouldn’t you say?!

Problems & Critics of the project

Among welfare fossil water brings some troubles, such as:

Radioactive Worries: the example, The Disi's (Jordan's water reserve) fossil water was recently found to contain 20 times the radiation levels considered safe for drinking. The water is contaminated naturally by sandstone, which has slowly leached radioactive contaminants over the eons[9]. Same worries is about Libyan underground water, however, there is possibility to clean this water through a simple water-softening process, though it does cost money and creates radioactive waste that must be disposed of properly, he noted.
Ecologists have objections to draining the nonrenewable water resources (counterargument of the Libyan government is both the volume of the reserves - with the current rate the aquifers in Libya itself will sustain for more than one thousand years - as well as uselessness of leaving the water in aquifers, having negligible value if left untouched).

Politicians point out the possible future conflicts among the neighbouring countries due to the reciprocal draining of the aquifers which naturally do not obey the political borders (counterargument of Libya is its panafrican approach and suggested cooperation with the neighbouring countries, which do not use the aquifers yet).

International economists in turn criticize growing crops with water obtained in this way would be more expensive than import of foods from abroad - counterargument is the fact that 30% of water is being used for direct household usage, as well as state-of-the-art methods of economical and effective irrigation and, last but not least, the unique advantage of the food self-sufficiency and stable price of the crops obtained by irrigation employing the man-made river.[10]

So we can see that this project is criticized, but the main point, I think, is that is works and helps people survive in Sahara desert.

Economic and global aspects

Main point of this post is to show what this project was developed for. Here are some words about main goals of the GMMR:

“The Great Man-Made River Project is bringing water to the people and providing water for municipal, industrial and agricultural use. The strategy of the responsible Libyan authority is aimed at increasing both crop and livestock production to a level that achieves the highest possible rate of self-sufficiency and reduces dependence on imports from foreign markets to the lowest possible level. It also aims at increasing the productive capabilities of the labor force and of the capital investments in the sector, and at producing raw materials for food processing industries”[11]. So, the main goal was independency from water and agricultural import.

From my very subjective point of view, economic and global aspects of GMMR project can be divided into two parts:

The aspect number one: As was told already the project cost is $25 billion, and all money was taken only from Libyan funds – rare case in modern globalized world. The world investment practice became very popular and it works in liberal countries, but this practice doesn’t work if we are speaking about authoritarian-socialist state as was Libya during Gaddafi regime. As investment implies partnership in a possession, but Libyan government couldn’t make such step towards west.

Kaddafi regime in Libya is very interesting case: small country with a big independent income from oil industry, socialist policy and etc. And concerning Libya this project could be considered as an uncommon anti-globalization step. Globalization is a modern phenomenon of economic, cultural and other integrations, but Libya’s example is rather ‘worth exclusion’: it can show to others that countries with close economy can develop something without international help.

And we can see the reaction of this in western countries. The GMMR is world well-known project, but, unfortunately, we can’t find much objective information about it in western mass media, as the project shows possibilities of anti-globalization movements. In one Libyan article we can find such words: “The West refuses to recognize that a small country, with a population no more than four million, can construct anything so large without borrowing a single cent from the international banks.”[12]

The aspect number two: economical possibilities that can provide the GMMR are a big blow to a water business. “The cost of one cubic meter of water [received from the GMMR] equals 35 cents. The cubic meter of desalinized water is $3.75. Scientists estimate the amount of water to be equivalent to the flow of 200 years of water in the Nile River.”[13]

And next:

“Amount of water in cubic meters which could be provided for one Libyan dinar, based on scientific research. Studies proved the man-made river being the most economic approach, which provides more than ten times of water for one dinar compared to various alternative technologies (e.g., undersea pipeline from Southern Europe, transport by water tankers, sea water desalination etc).[14]”

As you can see on a picture with ‘drops’ for one Libyan dinar people can buy 9m³ of water. The independency from import of the water could provide state independency form other word.

I'm interesting what prices will be if somebody privatize this project....

Afterword

From my point of view this project is one of the best things Gadaffi made form Libya, and we should give him recognition for this contribution in Libyan economic and social life’s change…

“Initially, authorities intended to drill the wells directly in the aquifer areas and thought of creating whole new cities and irrigated agricultural areas there. However, due to the necessity of transferring high numbers of inhabitants and building infrastructure in a poorly accessible terrain this possibility was soon abandoned as being economically unfeasible. Therefore, in concordance with a bit reformulated old Arab saying "If Muhammad will not come to the mountain, then the mountain must go to Muhammad", the project of the man-made river of hitherto unprecedented dimensions was decided to be realized in 1983 in order to bring the fresh water from inside the deep desert to the people at the coast. Nevertheless, it was inevitable to overcome several obstacles - considerable distance between the aquifers and the coast, rough desert conditions, elevation differences in the terrain, corrosion of the reinforced concrete, and many more”[15].

And in the end I want to propose you some image I made few days ago via Google Earth:

1) the year of 1972 and 2004:

drills

fields

[1] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

[2] http://www.galenfrysinger.com/man_made_river_libya.htm

[3] http://www.ethiopianreview.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27590&p=150954

[4] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

[5] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

[6]http://tpartyus2010.ning.com/profiles/blog/show?id=3180617%3ABlogPost%3A71032&commentId=3180617%3AComment%3A70937&xg_source=activity

[7] http://www.americanscientist.org/science/content1/9585

[8] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

[9] http://www.onepakistan.com/news/local/karachi/43609-Fossil-water-becoming-valuable-fossil-fuel.html

[10] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

[11] http://www.goumbook.com/4729/libyas-great-man-made-river-project/

[12] http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Virtually-unknown-in-the-West-Libya-s-water-resources_printer.shtml

[13] http://www.galenfrysinger.com/man_made_river_libya.htm

[14] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

[15] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

Pro Gaddafi Rally in Benghazi April 25

2011-04-27T12:31:00.000-07:00

oh! that isn't something I can see on TV

UN Security Council members failed to agree the statement on Syria

2011-04-27T00:11:00.000-07:00

The UN secretary general has condemned Syria for using tanks and live ammunition against protesters.

Calling for an independent investigation into recent killings, Ban Ki-moon said Syrian authorities had an obligation to respect human rights.
UN Security Council members have so far failed to agree a joint statement. [1]

but why?! and here is the answer: as we all remember, Russia and China were neutral about Libya's 'problem'; however, in Russian society this step was considered as a big mistake in foreign policy. So, and this respect, Russia and China won't make one mistake twice. UN Security Council won't agree a joint statement and, maybe, there is possibility to use NATO forces, as it was in Iraq. Moreover, it becoming obvious that the Syrian so-called 'humanitarian intervention' might be infringement of Russian and Chinese business and military interests.

Some news from Muslim World

2011-04-26T03:33:00.000-07:00

Danish cartoonist who drew The Prophet is being tried in a Jordan court

A Jordanian court has begun blasphemy proceedings against Danish artist Kurt Westergaard for a controversial cartoon he drew of the Prophet Mohammed.

[1]

Spying for Iran in Bahrain

Bahrain declared a diplomat posted in the Iranian embassy in Manama persona non grata, and ordered him to leave within 72 hours due to his alleged links with a Kuwait spy ring, Bahrain’s official news agency reported on Tuesday.

According to Al Arabiya’s correspondent at UN headquarters in New York, the report says: “Evidence confirms that Bahraini elements are being trained in Hezbollah camps specifically established to train assets from the Gulf.”

[2]

Al-Qaeda 'Afghan number two' Abdul Ghani killed - Nato

International forces in Afghanistan say they have killed their number-two insurgent target in the country - senior al-Qaeda leader Abdul Ghani.

[3]

US evacuating Syria embassy

The United States has ordered embassy family members and some non-emergency personnel to leave Syria, citing the “uncertainty and volatility” of a crackdown on protesters there.

The State Department’s directive early Tuesday, along with a travel warning telling US citizens to leave the country, followed another day of violent attacks on protesters by Syrian security forces. At least 26 people in Deraa were reported killed on Monday in assaults by Syrian tanks and troops.

[4]

Egypt reaffirms support for GCC

In the wake of an unexpected postponement of his visit to the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf States, Prime Minister Essam Sharaf of Egypt said that there was no tension in relations between his country and the UAE. He also said the security of the Gulf Cooperation Council states was a “red line” for Egypt.

In a statement following his talks in Riyadh with King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia, Mr. Sharaf said: “There is no problem between Egypt and the UAE, and my visit will be rescheduled later.”
Speaking of rapprochement with Iran with whom Egypt has renewed diplomatic links after a gap of 30 years, Mr. Sharaf said: “We want to turn a new page in our relations with Iran, but do not accept interference in GCC’s domestic affairs.”

[5]

Voting for Saudi women?

Women in Saudi Arabia showed a great deal of tenacity recently at municipal voting centers where they showed up to register for their right to vote. But they were largely disappointed because female names are not yet listed in the electoral system. Nevertheless, they seem to be stepping up efforts to gain adult franchise for women in all walks of Saudi society.

The desert kingdom held its first nationwide polls in 2005 since the state’s formation in 1932; but only eligible men were allowed to vote in the municipal elections. The second elections are scheduled for September, and Saudi women seem eager to get a head start on the registration process.

[6]

Libya: from the political conflict to ethnic one

2011-04-23T06:19:00.000-07:00

Libya crisis: Misrata tribes 'may fight rebels'

Tribes loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have said that if the army cannot drive rebels from the besieged port city of Misrata, they will, a senior official says.

Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said the army had tried to keep civilian casualties low but the tribes would not show the same restraint.

Colonel Gaddafi's forces have been pounding Misrata for weeks.

Meanwhile, Nato forces carried out more air strikes on the capital, Tripoli.

The Libyan government says three people were killed by the strikes.

Journalists were shown a concrete bunker near Col Gaddafi's Bab al-Azizia compound that received two hits early on Saturday.[1]

"Hopes of Al Qaeda’s demise are proving premature" by Al Arabiya news

2011-04-21T04:02:00.000-07:00

Of course it was very "premature" to forget about Al Qaeda!
"Al Qaeda and its various militant affiliates have been relegated in recent months to statements of support as protesters across the Middle East and North Africa demand greater freedom and an end to authoritarian rule. If anything, empathy for Al Qaeda’s violent, militant version of Islam appeared to have dissipated as youthful protesters challenged authoritarian leaders and forced the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt to resign".[1]

There is other thing that I'm very interesting in: Why do journalists always speak about Al Qaeda if there are so many other terrorist organization on Middle East and North Africa, of course they are well connected; but, it is hardly doubtful that Al Qaeda became a brand of Sunni terror movement in the world, but the problem is not this organization but ideology... And by using this brand, journalists and politicians simply do concept shift, something like stereotype.

Meet British military officers in Libya!

2011-04-19T13:00:00.000-07:00

Oh! Amazing!
"British military officers will be sent to Libya to advise rebels fighting Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's forces, the UK government has said.
The BBC understands 10 officers will provide logistics and intelligence training in a UK and French operation.
Mr Hague said it was compatible with the UN resolution on Libya, which ruled out foreign military ground action.
He stressed that the officers would not be involved in any fighting and the move was needed to help protect civilians." [1]
William Hague: "This is not British ground combat forces going in... this is fully in-line with the UN resolution" [2]

I think, it is to late to speak about legality of this step, I jast want to say that this is first official confirmation of the ground support for Libyan rebels.

Iran, Egypt renewing ties?

2011-04-19T03:06:00.000-07:00

Today Alarabia.net published an interesting news:
"Iran said Tuesday that it had appointed an ambassador to Egypt for the first time in 30 years, and that diplomatic relations between the two countries—among biggest and most influential countries of the Middle East—had been re-established".[1]
So we are becoming witnesses of renewing not only Egypt-Iranian relations, but renewing of whole Muslim world.
"Ties between Iran and Egypt were severed in 1980 following Iran’s Islamic revolution 1979 and Egypt’s recognition of Israel.
Cairo has long been an ally of the United States and Israel but since a popular uprising toppled President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, there have been signs of warming between mainly Sunni Muslim Egypt and predominantly Shiite Iran." [2]

NATO Secretary General's Press Conference

2011-04-19T01:17:00.000-07:00

NATO Secretary General's Press Conference

Great Video about Great Aspiration!
during the press conference Mr Rasmusen answered on some question about NATO's role in Libyan conflict.
So main objectives in this operation:

Yesterday the NATO foreign minister made clear the three military objectives of our mission in Libya: firstly, an end to all attacks and thread of attacks against civilians. Secondly, that will draw of all receive forces to barracks. Thirdly, an immediate humanitarian access. And we strongly endorsed the call by the contact group for Qaddafi to leave power, So, NATO is absolutely determine to continue its operation for as long as the thread against Libyan civilians and it’s impossible to imagine that this thread disappear when Qaddafi in power.

It was a good final question from Russian journalist:

Mr Rasmusen, the main reason for NATO operation in Libya is protecting civilians, so why NATO doesn’t stand up civilians in Yemen and Syria and don’t you think that the NATO operation creates the situation when authoritarian and not authoritarian regimes are motivated to obtain weapons of muss distraction as guarantee from foreign intervention?

Mr Rasmusen: We have taken action in Libya because the UN Security Council took an historic decision to adopt a resolution that lives up to the responsibility to protect. The responsibility to protect civilians against brutal and systematic attacks from their own government, own regime. And we operate in a co-ordinance with and with in the frame work of that UN Security Council a resolution. The UN Security Council applies to all countries and this resolution also mentions regular organizations like NATO so we feel a responsibility to participate in the implementation of that security come to resolution. This is a reason why we took action in Libya to live up to what the UN Security Council requested.

I remember my lesson on rhetoric: if you don't know what to answer on the question you've asked, start answer on unimportant and small part in this question, in another words find your way to speak about and make visibility that you are speaking on theme.
So here we can see a good example of such answers: the journalist ask him about "so why NATO doesn’t stand up civilians in Yemen and Syria and don’t you think that the NATO operation creates the situation when authoritarian and not authoritarian regimes are motivated to obtain weapons of muss distraction as guarantee from foreign intervention?" But Mr Rasmusen answers on this "the main reason for NATO operation in Libya is protecting civilians", i understand that this is very complicated question and this situation around Libya can make many consequences in a future, but as for me it is very improperly to make babble on this problem.

KavkazCenter.com about Arabic language and "strategic direction"

2011-04-18T01:10:00.000-07:00

Few days ago I've found an interesting article on ideology of 'Caucasus Emirate' movement. This is Abu Halid's point of view on a strategic direction of cooperation of Caucasian separatists. So, as I understand there are many voices of Wahhabi ideologists for searching some help from Turkey, A.Halid calls this ideas wrong, and point out :

"The main argument of the supporters of the Ottoman language is based on the geopolitical perspective of Turkey; I believe that this is a deceptive perspective".

One of the main mistake, that Turkey made is pro-European Union course.

"[M]odern Turkey, by fair means, or foul, is trying to sneak into the European Union. It is a secular state and this state does not defend Muslims. Even now, Turkey bans headscarves in universities; even infidel countries do not ban them. In Russia, I quietly perform my prayers in university buildings, and I have a beard.
How could you volunteer to become a vassal-state of Turkey, and in general, how can you take them to be as a basis and as an example as this country persecutes its citizens for performing the obligations of their religion - Islam?!"

Of course, it is very important remark. Turkey, as many other countries in a world, choose the democratic and pro-west orientation, in this case the traditional society should be modernized; and, of course, this modernization influence on institute of Islam in this country. And A.Halid point it out: Turkey isn't a good ally in his war against infidels.

"Another case is the Arabic world - the Arabic language is spoken by almost 350 million people, and if you believe that every Muslim should aim to study this language, then this language holds importance for 1.5 billion people, for every Muslim.
The Arabic language should be the state language for every Muslim country, as this is the language of the Quran and a means of communication amongst Muslims.
As for the puppet regimes, if recent events in Arabic countries are any indication, then Muslims in these countries are no longer passive observers, so it is inevitable that these puppet regimes will collapse.
The Arabic world strives for Islam, while Turkey strives for the European Union - so it is your choice."[1]
Beside the idea of Arabic language as the main unify factor, in his words can be seen the old idea of Pan-Islamism: consolidation of Islam umma, in this case base on language. A.Halid tries to show the strategic perspective in very well-known way, he point out political situation through a language perspective.
There is only one way for 'Caucasus Emirate' to exist: to search an ally not in geographical perspective, but in ideological.

possible crisis in EU & NATO

2011-04-18T00:57:00.000-07:00

In one previous post of mine I tried to figure out what consequences might be because of the Libyan war; however, I didn't imagine that would such migration crisis in Europe. Moreover, as we can see, this crisis influences on internal EU relations:

Deutsche Welle: "France temporarily stopped a passenger train from neighboring Italy to prevent North African migrants from entering the country on visas issued by Italian authorities. The move highlights a growing row over migration".

“A group of Italian and French activists on Sunday had planned to board what they dubbed "The Train of Dignity" to accompany migrants with visas into France to protest Europe's measures to shut down its borders despite the Schengen agreement.

The French authorities said they would allow in only Tunisians with passports and the financial resources to live in France independently.

The Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Rome was not demanding a passport before handing out visas and was set to issue about 100 documents a day.” [1]

Moreover, in the web can be found more pessimistic ideas, that not only EU can experience some internal crisis, but also image of NATO can really suffer because of this operation:

"In truth, the Libyan expedition is an Anglo-French project and has been from the beginning. Yet neither Britain nor France wants responsibility for the operation — and neither feels comfortable relying on the other. The French grumble that the American withdrawal has encouraged Moammar Gaddafi; the British think the French might now be distracted by a war in their former colony, Ivory Coast. This failure to cooperate is hardly surprising. This, after all, is the first Anglo-French military operation since the Suez escapade of 1956 — and that one ended rather badly".

“But if this historically unreliable Anglo-French coalition proves unable to sustain a long operation, what then? There is certainly no European force that can replace it. There isn’t even a European foreign policy: Years of diplomacy, debate and endless national referendums culminated, a couple of years ago, in the selection of two powerless figureheads as Europe’s “president” and “foreign minister.” Attempts to create a united European army have never moved beyond pure symbolism. If Britain and France run out of planes, fuel, money or enthusiasm, it’s over. And NATO — an organization that, I repeat, did not plan for, prepare for or even vote for the Libyan operation — will shoulder most of the blame. The use of NATO’s name, in Libya, is a fiction. But the weakening of NATO’s reputation in Libya’s wake might become horribly real. ”. [2]

Eddie Izzard about Assassins

2011-04-17T08:32:00.000-07:00

Very Short Introduction to assassin's life:

The second chance to resolve the Libyan conflict

2011-04-17T02:01:00.000-07:00

"WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has begun seeking a country, most likely in Africa, that might be willing to provide shelter to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi if he were forced out of Libya, even as a new wave of intelligence reports suggest that no rebel leader has emerged as a credible successor to the Libyan dictator.
The intense search for a country to accept Colonel Qaddafi has been conducted quietly by the United States and its allies, even though the Libyan leader has shown defiance in recent days, declaring that he has no intention of yielding to demands that he leave his country, and intensifying his bombardment of the rebel city of Misurata." [1]

What a great news; however, nobody did say that after his exile he can return back like ... Napoleon returned from Elba with all followed consequences. So there is a little chance for a good and long life somewhere in Africa. :-)

One more thing: “We learned some lessons from Iraq, and one of the biggest is that Libyans have to be responsible for regime change, not us,” one senior administration official said on Saturday. “What we’re simply trying to do is find some peaceful way to organize an exit, if the opportunity arises.” [2]

Good idea, but concerning Libyan war it looks like western policy divided into 2 parts or roles: one for Europe - a brute-force attack, or "physical contact" and other for US - a "good peacemaking policy".
So let's study modern diplomacy on this good example)

News on terror(2011 Apr 11 - 17)

2011-04-16T06:11:00.000-07:00

Belarus: Apr 11 (Monday) "A blast tore through a packed metro station near Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko's headquarters Monday killing at least 12 people and wounding 100 others, in a suspected act of terror. Lukashenko also ordered the head of the KGB to "immediately investigate and consider everything until the last detail. All those responsible must be found." [1]
According to State Security Committee of Belarus(KGB) was arrested 2 men who are suspected in the act of terror on metro station.
Apr 13 Lukashenko: "Crime was detected". "The main thing is that we know who and how made this act of terror; however we still don't know why it was madden. But this question also will be clear soon." [2] [3]

The State Security Committee of Belarus suggested 3 possible reasons for this act of terror: 1) Destabilization of the political and social life in Belarus. As it was tolled the terrorist wanted to bring chaos and an unsatisfying of the government. 2) The terror act was the answer from extremists organization. "One of the case of anarchy group is ending now, and we accept the idea that it (metro station event) was a revenge on KGB for this case". 3) It was made by a human with mind disease.[5] After all interrogations the last reason was chosen as a main one.

There are some analytics who argues that we should expect repressions from Belarus government, [4]
but, I think, by calling these people crazy the government made a good step for the idea of approaching repressions exploding.

Afghanistan: Apr 13 (Wednesday) A suicide bomber has killed at least 10 people in an attack on tribal elders in eastern Afghanistan, the interior ministry has said. Pro-government tribal elder Haji Malik Zarin was killed in the blast in Kunar province near the Pakistan border. Mr Zarin, a close ally of President Karzai, died along with his son and another family member. A Taliban spokesman denied the group carried out the attack, saying that Mr Zarin had "his own enemies". President Karzai's office described the killing as a "tragic loss". He was killed as a village shura, or meeting of local elders, came to an end in Asmar district. "The suicide attacker approached them, hugged Malik Zarin and then detonated the explosives strapped to his body," district police chief Mohammad Shoaib told the AFP news agency. The attack took place when elders from two tribes - some of them former warlords - were meeting to resolve a dispute, police told the Reuters news agency. [6]

Afghanistan: Apr 16 (Saturday) Five foreign and five Afghan troops have died in an attack in eastern Afghanistan, officials say.

A Taliban suicide bomber wearing a military uniform hit an Afghan army base near the city of Jalalabad, the Afghan defence ministry said. In the two most recent incidents, the attacker was wearing an offical Afghan uniform. [9]

Gaza Strip: "The number of Shiites is increasing in the Gaza Strip, which has a majority of Sunni population, an Iranian website reported last week. Iran, on the other hand, is irritated by a notable rise in the number of Sunnis in the Iranian southwestern province of Khuzestan, whose population has a majority of Arabs.
The conservative Asr Iran (Iran Age) Website reported that a large number of Palestinians in Gaza have converted to the Shiite doctrine within the past few years, although the enclave is controlled by the Sunni Islamist Hamas rulers".[7]

Other news

Sudan: "Khartoum- US special envoy for Sudan, Princeton Lyman said that the issue of removing Sudan from terrorism list has a lots of details that his administration discuss moreover there is consultation on that in the congress and President Barak Obama Particularly has currently started these steps". [8] However, 3 countries are still existing in U.S. list of the State Sponsors of Terrorism. [10]

Country	Designation Date
Cuba	March 1, 1982
Iran	January 19, 1984
~~Sudan~~	~~August 12, 1993~~
Syria	December 29, 1979

Some Libyan rebel photos

2011-04-13T00:44:00.000-07:00

Some Libyan rebel photos:

Among other heroic photos we can find and something like this:

And, of course, they aren't smoking tobacco...

Sources:
http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-rebellion-pictures-2011-3#libyan-rebels-ride-into-battle-at-brega-1
http://publicintelligence.info/libyan-rebel-photos/
http://fishki.net/comment.php?id=86675

Opium problems in Afghanistan

2011-04-13T00:35:00.000-07:00

"Fighting the war on Afghanistan opium seems almost insurmountable, but the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, UNODC, works hard at finding ways to solve the problem. In 2000, a ban on the Taliban-led Afghanistan, which produced 75% of the world’s opium, yielded a 98% drop in the poppy production. However, when the Taliban lost control in 2001 the opium trade increased. By 2006, Afghanistan generated 94% of the world’s supply"[1].

Afghanistan opium poppy cultivation 1994-2007

P.S. I've found interesting news: "Russia accuses the United States of conspiring with Afghanistan's drug producers by refusing to eradicate opium plantations in the country. US marines, stationed in the opium-growing Helmand province since February, told the villagers that they do not intend to cut the production, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Sunday".[2]

France: fingers in many African pies

2011-04-12T04:52:00.000-07:00

France returned in NATO and wanted to make up leeway?! The Ivory Coast conflict has just resolved with France help:

“Ivory Coast's UN-recognised President, Alassane Ouattara, has urged restraint after the dramatic capture of his rival Laurent Gbagbo”[1].

And exact in this day France's foreign minister made statement where he described dissatisfaction of NATO’s role in Libya:

“Nato is not doing enough to destroy heavy weaponry used by Muammar Gaddafi's forces in Libya, France's foreign minister has said.

Libyan civilians remain at risk, Alain Juppe said, despite an ongoing bombing campaign now led by Nato.

"Nato must play its role fully. It wanted to take the lead in operations," Mr Juppe said, saying efforts so far were "not enough".[2]”

After failure of [3] African Union's proposal this statement of France's foreign minister shows only the one way out: ground operation.

Moreover, the “kavkazcenter.info” wrote interesting notes about French and other countries’ ground forces in Libya:

“"The Algerian newspaper "Al-Khaber" published a report saying that a French commando unit got lost in the desert region of Al-Hamada Al-Hamra in the south-west part of the country. According to the newspaper, they went there to prevent the flow of weapons, mercenaries and terrorists into Libya. For reasons that are unclear, Paris lost contact with the commandos and asked Algeria to provide air-space and two air force bases in order to search for the special forces soldiers," wrote the Italian newspaper.

"The aforementioned French unit is one of the many units sent by the coalition to assist the rebels. British SAS soldiers, CIA agents and, probably, special forces from Arab countries are active in this theater of war."”[4]

LA Times: “Reporting from Washington— CIA officers are on the ground in Libya, coordinating with rebels and sharing intelligence, U.S. officials say, but the Obama administration has not yet decided whether to take the further step of providing weapons to those trying to oust Moammar Kadafi.”[5]

This war became very expensive for Europe, and the stumbling block isn’t money; the main problem is political benefits, which can reach after Libyan struggle.

So, speaking truly, I’m expecting for the ground operation. Why? There are many voice against such intervention, however they doesn’t relief from the situation: conflict has no evolution nor for rebels neither for Gaddafi forces. I think, that inspired by ‘victory’ in Ivory Coast French’s government might consider that it will be other fast ‘victory’ in Libya, and they want to repeat the same scenario that was in Ivory Coast...

[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13044818

[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13046127

[3] http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/04/201141116356323979.html

[4] http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2011/04/08/14055.shtml

[5] http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fg-cia-libya-20110331,0,4277132.story?track=rss

Modern "Toyota War"

2011-04-11T01:48:00.000-07:00

“Cheap and fast” are two main criteria of modern war in Africa. And Toyota became one of the symbols of such wars. We could see them during the Chadian–Libyan conflict

The Chadian–Libyan conflict was a state of sporadic warfare events in Chad between 1978 and 1987 between Libyan and Chadian forces. Libya had been involved in Chad's internal affairs prior to 1978 and before Muammar al-Gaddafi's rise to power in Libya in 1969, beginning with the extension of the Chadian Civil War to northern Chad in 1968. The conflict was marked by a series of four separate Libyan interventions in Chad, taking place in 1978, 1979, 1980–1981 and 1983–1987. In all of these occasions Gaddafi had the support of a number of factions participating in the civil war, while Libya's opponents found the support of the French government, which intervened militarily to save the Chadian government in 1978, 1983 and 1986[1].

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chadian%E2%80%93Libyan_conflict

The 1987 war resulted in a heavy defeat for Libya, which, according to American sources, lost one tenth of its army, with 7,500 troops killed and 1.5 billion dollars worth of military equipment destroyed or captured. Chadian losses were 1,000 troops killed.

Of course, only because of Chadian geographical features (lay of the land) the Desert Rats[1] method was successful.

Here are pictures from today’s Libyan conflict:

Nothing has changed…

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_7th_Armoured_Division

Developing of Libyan crisis

2011-04-10T10:10:00.000-07:00

Today African Union mission arrived for Tripoli talks[1]; this step has all possibilities to become a crucial point in Libyan conflict. “An African Union mission has arrived in Libya to try to negotiate a ceasefire between rebel forces and those loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi.

South African President Jacob Zuma and three other leaders had earlier left Mauritania to fly to the Libyan capital, Tripoli. The team will also visit rebel representatives in Benghazi. Fierce fighting is continuing in Ajdabiya in eastern Libya, with Col Gaddafi's forces pushing back rebels.”[2] The mission from these African countries can meet some troubles during negotiations, as was told earlier: “Libyan rebels say they have signed an oil contract with Qatar to export oil from rebel-held territory.”[3] This is the step that can help to legitimate the rebel’s regime in international level; and, of course, to promote dividing country.

One more important statement that was early today:

“A top US general maintained Thursday it was unlikely that Libyan rebel forces could oust Gadhafi, saying the conflict appeared to be turning into a stalemate.

General Carter Ham, who led the first stage of the coalition air campaign in Libya, said the international bombing raids had succeeded in protecting civilians for the most part but that Gadhafi's regime probably would not be removed by military means”.

“Asked at a Senate hearing about the chances that the opposition could "fight their way" to Tripoli and replace Gadhafi, Ham said: "Sir, I would assess that as a low likelihood."

And when pressed by Senator John McCain whether the situation was an "emerging stalemate," Ham said: "Senator, I would agree with that at present on the ground."

His comments underscored growing concern in Washington and European capitals that the fight in Libya could be deadlocked, with Gadhafi firmly in control in Tripoli and badly-organized rebels unable to turn the tide even under the cover of NATO-led air power. [4]”

So, in this ‘emerging stalemate’ situation the African Union mission can be one of the ‘success’ way to resolve this crisis.

[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13029165

[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13029165

[3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12875810

[4] http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14974856,00.html

Postmodern “Year of Africa”: what should we expect

2011-04-02T09:36:00.000-07:00

The year of 2011 has already become a year of great revolutions in Muslim Asia and Africa. Because of its large scale this movement can only be compared with the Year of Africa[1] that was in1960 when many African countries got the independence from colonial powers. In my opinion, all these revolutions are part of postmodern picture of the world, and it can be seen as mixed ideas of pre-democratic societies and contra-reaction against western politics in region. For example, in Libya both Islamist[2] and democratic ideas can be seen among anti-Kaddafi rebels. Both of these forces are hoping to come in power in the fullness of time. And we could see that the aphorism ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ is working very well during Egyptian revolution. That’s why George Soros expressed support for The Muslim Brotherhood during the very beginning of this revolution.

Now, with the Libyan civil war and events in Syria just escalating we can only guess what country will be next in the revolution’s list. But, in my opinion, we should begin thinking about the future of all these countries and the whole region. Here I want to outline some details that drew my attention during all these revolution events in the Muslim Africa and Middle East. The consequences that I want to talk about can be divided into 3 groups: local, regional and global.

Local: There are some possible consequences inside Libya:

Concerning Libya, there is a great possibility for an increase in the level of the various radical movements’ adepts inside the country. After the change of government in the revolutionary way, came a period of transition and it commonly accompanies with a period of instability, which is a good chance for radicalism development.

One of the reasons of the revolution movement in this region was high unemployment level. The economic transformation, after revolution and the hostilities in a country such as Libya might lead to an increasing unemployment level not only there but in countries that are nearby. Almost certainly, in the near future an unemployment problem in countries, which have had a revolution period won’t be resolved. That’s why there is an opinion that radical Islam would have the chance to come in power in case the unemployment problem is not resolved.

Another issue, which is closely connected with the above one, is that there are possibilities for the appearance of many other economical problems after stabilization of political life in this country. It is obvious, that the Muslim traditionalism in economical life can’t provide stabile democratically and liberal reforms. This kind of after transitional period problems can be brought about by, for example, oil industry privatization or other steps of quasi-liberal reforms approaching. This might bring on high level problems that had been resolved during Kaddafi’s regime, as example, water problems. Change of regimes might influence of the water politics in this country; old project can be stopped, but new can be started. So, I think, this can aggravate water problem – export prices for this strategic resource might grow in future and that, of course, will lead to a decreasing in the standard of living[3].

Regional: it also can be proposing some ideas for Muslim Africa and Middle East region:

All kind of transformations in such Muslim courtiers will imply economic, political and, of course, cultural changes. Among the cultural transformations, a progressive shift from traditional to modernized society can be identified. And here we can see really huge problems: are these Muslim countries ready for the changes like this or we are ready to expect from them some radical movements and instability in region.

There are also possibilities of Muslim countries migration ties break. As we could see in Libya many workers had come from nearby countries, so increasing the level of unemployment in the North African region[4].

One more important consequence is that by this interference in the internal problems of Libya (even if this is a ‘humanitarian intervention’), Western steps shows to some countries in Muslim world that the idea of a government’s sovereignty isn’t yet so untouchable. The operation in Libya can show to other Muslim countries that only one chance to save their sovereignty is a deter factor, as a example, WMD.

Also, today many Western TV channels have been talking for a very long time, that revolution movement in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria (maybe in near future to this list will be added Algeria) was done with only one purpose: the transformation of authoritarian types of government to democratic societies. However, as Libyan example shows, it isn’t clear until now whom UN and NATO are supporting in this conflict. And I see a very interesting precedent here: very rarely can we see the situation when the U.S. and Europe don’t support rebels as freedom or democracy fighters, but as they are against existing government of Colonel Kaddafi and his regime. Military support is continuing even though many rebels may be Al-Qaida forces and other representatives of radical Islam. Beside this, the expectations of democratic changes in such countries are utopian and very naive, as there are only few countries among Muslim countries which pretend to have success in democracy. Among these countries is Turkey and it made a one-hundred-year-long trip to democracy but still has great problems of democracy adaptation[5].

Global: And in the end, outside Muslim region consequences:

We have already witnessed immigrant crisis that has been developing on Lampedusa Island[6]. Europe can’t save itself from this kind of immigrant crisis in future because of many reasons including the fact that they depend on immigrant labor and, in some ways, well-developed Human Rights politics. As a result Europe will have a high level of terrorism threat in the near future because of immigrants from Muslim countries.

Moreover, nowadays socio-political relations between Muslim and Western countries can’t be called strong. This little Libyan war that is so necessary for France’s president, can lead to a big problems inside French. It will be recalled that about 6 million Muslims are living in France, and this, of course, can influence an internal political situation. Beside this, this intervention has been a much-debated question within the EU[7].

One more important fact that might lead to interesting consequences is connected with the conservative politics that were in Muslim region until this year. “[T]here is no doubting that rulers such as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia have been key Western allies. In the classic formulation of the Cold War, they were ‘our sons-of-bitches[8]’. Or, as a writer in The Washington Times lamented last week: ‘Mr. Mubarak may have been a tinpot dictator, but he supported America’.[9]” But it is also no doubt that the Barrack Obama administration became interesting in reforms of this region, and as a result there are some opportunities for extremists to come to power after all these revolutions: interference in internal problems and thus destabilizing the political situations can lead to very complicate situations.

Today many countries are interested in political changes in the Muslim Word, and so, of course, does the U.S. administration. The U.S.’s interests and wishes were very well described by journalist Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times newspaper: “In this, the governments of Syria and Iran are toppled and replaced by much more moderate regimes. The Israelis, reassured by the disappearance of their biggest foes, agree to the creation of a viable Palestinian state. Egypt stabilizes and becomes a prosperous democracy. Colonel Gaddafi is defeated and the grateful Libyans hail the west as heroes. A new and legitimate Yemeni government takes up the fight against al-Qaeda. The Saudi government embraces reforms that defuse its internal crisis, and keep the oil flowing”[10].

All these remarks confirm that we have become witnesses to a new Muslim world and global changes in this region and whole world. The unexpected creation of an instability zone in Muslim countries will have an influence on the European and Central Asia region. Evidently we can talk about 3 levels of consequences: local, regional and global; so here I tried to point out, from my point of view, the possible consequences.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_of_Africa

[2] www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DfDtsncp0IRM%26feature%3Dplayer_embedded

[3]About problems of water policy see: http://www.emro.who.int/ceha/pdf/proceedings27-Water%20policies%20in%20Libya.pdf

[4] http://www.euronews.net/2011/04/05/chad-refugees-still-stranded-in-libya/

[5] http://www.meforum.org/216/why-turkey-is-the-only-muslim-democracy

[6] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12816340

[7] http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/201132472924305721.html

[8] http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_larry_sa_070103_our_son_of_a_bitch.htm

[9] It’s 1989, but we are the Russians by Gideon Rachman Financial Times

[10] It’s 1989, but we are the Russians by Gideon Rachman Financial Times

Central Asia and oil extraction decreasing

2011-03-09T00:58:00.000-08:00

The modern terrorist threat became one of the most important problems of global security and in now day’s it is obvious that terrorism is very useful leverage in geopolitics. Leverage that can be afford only by “big players” of international relations, such as states, big companies and corporations. Terrorist acts, of course, are cheaper than war as itself, but they are still expensive for “simple” people, who are disagreeing with same points of pursued policy. This “disagreeing” can be provide only if there are great economical and ideological possibilities. Here will be briefly examined such economical possibilities and prognoses if this possibilities will be cut.

“Oil money” and specific external policy

It is the unquestionable fact that modern underdeveloped countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and others, base their economics on the export of raw materials, particularly oil. Having oil based economics, governments can provide their political, social, economical policy. This is the main source to get money to maintain of the state’s viability.

For example, Russia, besides its interior policy that is based on raw materials, has built relations with Chechen Republic on money received from oil and gas exports. In other words, “oil money” are using to resolve interior problems, buy a loyalty of same quasi-government formation (such as foregoing Chechen Republic), and, of course, as will it be shown below, to pursue government’s specific foreign policy course.

By specific foreign policy course I implied interference in the other countries’ policy. There are a few countries that directly or indirectly support the idea of Islamic fundamentalism (or the idea of True Islam[1]) spread in the world and particularly in Central Asia. Some scholars mark out Saudi Arabia as a country supporting terrorism.

“The line between the barrel and the bomb is clear. It is oil wealth that enables dictatorial regimes to sustain themselves, resisting openness, progress and power sharing. Some semi-feudal royal families in the Gulf buy their legitimacy from the Muslim religious establishment. This establishment uses oil money to globally propagate hostility to the West, modernity, non-Muslims, and women.

This trend is likely to continue. Both the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Agency of the U.S. Department of Energy currently project a steady increase in world demand for oil through at least 2020. This means further enrichment of the oil-producing countries and continued access of terrorist groups to a viable financial network which allow then remain a lethal threat to the U.S. and its allies”[2].

“Oil money” and Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is a Sunni country funded by Wahabbists since the18th century. Many of the modern Sunni terrorist organizations exist for the most part on “oil money” that they receive from different NGOs and individual donors. It’s important to know that of the19 hijackers who organized the 9/11 attack 15 were from Saudi Arabia[3]. Also this country supports the fundamentalists with the literature and other ideological tools.

“According to a 2009 U.S. State Department communication by Hillary Clinton, United States Secretary of State, (disclosed as part of the Wikileaks U.S. 'cables leaks' controversy in 2010) "donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide". Part of this funding arises through the zakat (or religious tax) required to be paid by all Saudis to charities, and amounting to at least 2.5 percent of their income. Although many charities are genuine, others, it is alleged, serve as fronts for money laundering and terrorist financing operations. While many Saudis contribute to those charities in good faith believing their money goes toward good causes, it has been alleged that others know full well the terrorist purposes to which their money will be applied.”

Moreover, modern sociologies and historians define the oil industry to be one of the causes that gave birth to the modern terrorism phenomenon, because it provided additional money to the spread of Wahhabi ideology. It’s obvious that Saudi Arabia is a Wahhabi made country, and same elite from this country interested in spread of this ideology. “Saudi Arabia has an oil-based economy with strong government control over major economic activities. Saudi Arabia possesses 25% of the world's proven petroleum reserves... The petroleum sector accounts for roughly 45% of budget revenues, 55% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings”[4].

About the examined theme can also be found other opinion. As example, blogger Bruce Everett in his post wrote: “If oil money were the primary determinant of terrorism, we would expect to see some correlation between oil prices and terrorist activity. We don’t. The price of crude oil was $16 per barrel when the World Trade center was first attacked in 1993, $21 when the Khobar Towers facility was bombed in 1996, $11 when the East African embassies were bombed in 1998, $27 when the USS Cole was attacked and $24 on 9/11. The price reached $140 per barrel in 2008 and is now about $80, yet we have seen no significant increase in terrorist activity since 9/11”[5]. This is true, during modern anti-U.S. terrorist activities there has been no correlation between oil prices and terrorist activity. But it’s important to say that terrorist activity isn’t only a terrorist act as a method. Under terrorist activity should be implied the spread of ideology in a proper region. In this respect, of course, there isn’t this kind of correlation but there is sufficient prosperous spread of Wahhabi ideology in the Central Asia region. Now we can talk only about one country, with Wahhabi system of government – Tajikistan, but in near future the situation has all possibilities to be changed in the bad way.

As a matter of fact, the situation around modern Wahhabi ideology is very particular. In the history of terrorism there are many examples when organizations divided into two parts – “radical parties”, that using violence, and “political parties”, that using non violence methodology, and only in their statements admit radical ideas. “Narodnaya Volea” in Russia, the IRA in Ireland and many others are examples. The same things happen with Islamic fundamentalism. In other words, two different types of organizations existing, first one, like Al-Qaida, are well-known for their acts of terrorism. And the second one, for example, Hizb ut-Tahrir, are working to maintain their ‘unblemished’ reputation: they don’t use violence openly and trying to enter in political life of the country where it is existing.

Some prognosis for Central Asia region

In this work will be examined the consequences of the oil consumption decreases possibilities. Let’s accept the situation when oil extraction falls and the prices rise. Of course, this decreasing will be gradual, and it won’t happen in the near future. As we can see on the image above (“oil consumption” image), the oil reserves are still big, but in the not-so-distant future the world’s economy may start feeling a shortage of the oil. The main reasons are that the increase in the world’s oil consumption, and, of course, appearance of same environmental problems which are caused by carbonic acid and other dangers.

Sametimes it’s very important to understand simple idea, that for business elite is very seductive to spent same “oil money” on dissemination of political and economic influence, to support and secure their busines from concurence and etc. Wahhaby ideology became only tool for oil and other policy in Central Asia and, of cource, in whole world. Now it happens by spreading the idea of True Islam, but if the financial support will be cut out, the current situation can change.

The main and most important fact is that the idea will not die even if it gets into difficult conditions – for example, Nazi ideology, even defeated, exists in nowadays and can be seen in different variations. The same will happen with Wahhabi ideology of ‘True Islam’ – it won’t die if support decreases. The reduction in sponsoring from “oil money” will show the scholars only other ways of self finance. It will reflect only on Central Asia, Middle East, and other poor regions. I think that it won't reflect on Western countries because many ‘terrorist’ organizations already are self-financed. It is induced basically by difference in socioeconomic environment: Islam’s clientelist economies and Western market economies. (For more details I strongly recommend the article “Market Civilization and Its Clash with Terror” by Michael Mousseau).

One more question that can be examined here is what resources can undertake the “oil money” function in Central Asia region. The Central Asia’s courtiers in most cases are agricultural courtiers with poor industry. Therefore the resources have to be connected with agriculture and some services.

Among resources that can replace income from the “oil money” the following can be marked out:

o Water Resources: In the near future the Central Asia region will encounter water shortages, and of course, this may influence the stability of the region in general. Whoever controls water resources controls the whole region. Now the situation doesn’t inspire much optimism, in addition to water consumption increase, as was told earlier, in Central Asia already exists a country with Wahhabi system of government - Tajikistan. It controls 51.5% of water resources in the Central Asia region[6].

In the future this resource, which is so important for the living, has all possibilities to become one of the main reasons to start a war.

o Drug traffic: there is one more important resource that can help overcome crisis when oil extraction will decrease. It’s obvious that after the invasion in Afghanistan (2001) the drug production increased immensely. The officials say that this happened because there is only one agricultural product that can provide the same living level for local Afghani residents. This culture is poppy, which is the main source of heroin. It’s important to mention that Karzay’s government with U.N. tries to elaborate a strategy that “will include targeted programmes of agricultural development and the reduction of poppy cultivation.”[7]

Afghan heroin is an exported material – from Afghanistan it is transported via Tajikistan to Russia and then spread over the country or distributed all over the world.

Also, all these financial cuts will lead to fights between different organizations for resources. Based on project management and fundraising, it is known that one of the main determining factors of continue sponsoring is the visible result of activity. These results in their turn will lead to increase in the level of violence.

Moreover, since the Soviet Union collapse, this region has been unstable from both an economic and political point of view. The long unstable situation in a state influences social culture and decision making habits. The higher the social level is, the more humane and compromising the solution will be.

Also we shouldn’t underestimate WMD usage. This is very expansive weapon, but by using it can be resolve many goals such as international effect.

This is the main possibilities that may happen if the oil extraction decreases. Here should be remained, that “the oil and mining industries have been also associated with violent protest in many parts of the world. With respect to oil, one analyst recently claimed that: 'From Nigeria and Venezuela to Indonesia and Algeria, riots, conflict and outright civil war threaten the populations of OPEC countries”[8]. In this respect, we, firstly, have to accept that “oil money” from Saudi Arabia, and other oil based economic countries, can support Wahhaby ideology of True Islam spread. Secondly, the problem connected with decrease of oil consumption that no doubt will appear in future will influence on Central Asia security. Thirdly, reduce of terrorist organization financing will lead to search of the “new money” source. In turn this may reflect on increase of violence in this region as fighting for reserves.

[1] True Islam is Wahhaby’s ideology

[2] Fueling Terror (http://www.iags.org/fuelingterror.html)

[3] M. Mousseau Market Civilization and Its Clash with Terror National Security

[4]

[5] Financing Terrorists by Bruce Everett

(http://bmeverett.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/financing-terrorists/)

[6] К. Борищполец Водные ресурсы Центральной Азии в контексте регионального сотрудничества М. МГИМО 2007 стр. 5

[7] Communiqué of “Afghanistan: The London Conference” Afghan Leadership, Regional Cooperation, International Partnership

[8] A. Mack. The Private Sector and Conflict. Harvard Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research
Pictures:
http://www.beodom.com/assets/images/education/peakoil/oil-consumption-by-area-million-barrels-1965-2006.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/2b/SaudiArabiaNetExports.PNG/250px-SaudiArabiaNetExports.PNG
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_charts_maps/375xcoal_proved_coal_reserves.GIF