It’s tough looking out my office window at this view when trying to stay focused and finish up details for some new listings.

I’m starting to produce some short videos as part of my marketing package. I don’t think anyone can dispute that a video can give a more in depth tour of a home than photos or even a virtual tour. I shot this video over the weekend of my listing at 36142 River Point Drive near Astoria. This house is in a great neighborhood, something I think is difficult to convey using only photos.

This great article on the 1000w blog proves a great point. When business is booming, your market share will grow even as you become detached from the core needs of your client. Often it will take decreased revenues and market share before management will recognize something is wrong, and further decreases to determine the root of the problem. Often the solution is a simple as giving the customer what they want. I think real estate is no different, but with slight changes to the model depending on size of the business.

During the boom years everybody in real estate made money, you showed up and took the order. It wasn’t as critical to stay ahead of the next guy in every aspect, there was plenty of business to go around. Heck, homes sold themselves. When the market slowed, or stopped in some areas, it took the collective real estate industry a while to figure out the problem. The big problem was the credit market and unchecked price growth for several years, but there was another problem further down that was overlooked. The overall market slowed, but some brokerages and agents saw additional declines in market share. From my own personal observations, the majority of Realtors I talked to didn’t realize the magnitude of the declining market and in turn didn’t change their business model accordingly.

I had it easier than most, as I got into the market as it peaked and was beginning to correct. I hadn’t experienced the “order taking”, I got in just after that and began to build my business. Those around me that had been in the business less than 5 years were getting the same education I was: The Sellers were no longer in the driver’s seat, and the Buyers held all the cards. My agents continued doing the same things, marketing to Sellers and taking over-priced listings. The difference was this time instead of building an inventory of listings that would eventually sell, fewer listings would attract a Buyer and a growing inventory hurt your check book. There’s an old saying in real estate “list to last”. It’s definately true, but it has a different meaning today than 2 years ago. Agents and offices continued to do business as usual, not giving the consumer what they wanted. The consumer recognized the market correcting, and became empowered by the growing number of for sale signs in their neighborhood and dismal reports on the evening news. Buyers were hungry, but for what?

They wanted what everybody wants when supply out grows demand… A better deal. They wanted a bigger house in a better neighborhood for less money. Sounds easy right? Sure. Did they get it? Not really.

Slowly the battle cry at any brokerage changed from “go out there and get some listings” to “go out there and get some price reductions”. Eventually a few real estate professionals began to change their business from being Seller-centric to Buyer-centric. The ones who did this quickly actually gained market share because they responded to the consumer. Those that took a little longer to figure this out lost market share, and some closed their doors forever.

I don’t pretend to be a genius, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night. However I do know what the consumer wants and try my best to deliver. I don’t have a fancy website devoted to soliciting customer feedback and I don’t need one, I do it the old fashioned way: I ask them what they want and deliver.

Just Listed: 36142 River Point Drive in Astoria.

• 4 Bedrooms
• 2.5 Bath
• 1920 SF
• Gas Fireplace
• Fenced Yard
• Trex Deck

The NAR reports that sales nationwide of second homes fell more than 30% in 2007, while condos slipped less than 3%. Condos also made up a larger share of vaction homes last year, up 8 points to 29%. While sales of condos were steady, prices weren’t. Many areas saw a declines above and beyond the 10% decrease in median sold prices. If you own a condo on the North Oregon Coast in Seaside, Gearhart, Cannon Beach or Astoria this isn’t exactly great news, but it presents great opportunities for Buyers looking to enter our market. Condos make a great second home as the maintaince required is minimal when compared to a single family home, and a condo unit normally costs less to boot. The condo market has exploded in Clatsop County in recent years, with many new units nearing completion and even more in the planning stages giving buyer options to a beach cottage requiring extensive attention from its absentee owners.

A quick survey of the Clatsop MLS reports condos in abundant supply of active listings on the North Coast-

• Astoria: 17
• Cannon Beach: 5
• Gearhart: 9
• Seaside: 102

These two incredible homes at 2715 & 2655 Mill Pond Lane have just been reduced nearly $50,000! Currently listed by Jennie and Bree of RE/MAX River & Sea, both homes are staged with designer decor. Located on the east end of Astoria, Mill Pond Village is a casually upscale community on the Columbia River and near Columbia Memorial Hospital.

2655 Mill Pond Lane

2715 Mill Pond Lane

photo credit

Most home owners in the Astoria area would answer with a very firm false. There are reasons that it could be a great time to sell your home in Astoria, even during a buyers market here in Clatsop County. Before I continue, let me say this: Every situation is different, and you should seek the advice of a real estate professional.

If you bought your home in Astoria more than 3 years ago, now is a great time to sell and move up. While most of you just collectively rolled your eyes and think I’ve lost it, let me explain. It’s true you will likely net a larger profit when the market recovers, but so will everybody else. If you are a move up buyer, the savings are huge on the buying of the transaction. While the median home prices continues to rise in Astoria and on the Oregon Coast, appreciation is certainly much lower than 2004-2006. The bottom line is while you may not get the premium you would have 2 years ago, the higher you move up in the market the larger the savings on the buying side.

The real estate market here is segmented by list price in terms of inventory and activity. Under $250,000 is the most active part of the market here, with far more buyers and fewer competing homes. As you move up to $300-450,000 the competition gets far tougher with higher inventory and fewer buyers. Selling your home under the $250,000 mark will be much easier than above $300,000 for example. So by selling in a cooler market, you still have a much better bargaining position the farther you move up in the market.

A recent post that detailed the launch of a new foreclosure database that offered tons of detailed really caught my interest. Foreclosureradar.com only contains property foreclosure info for California right now, but I’m certain it’s only a matter of time before somebody begins to roll out a nation wide site. Currently consumers and investors can subscribe to sites like realtytrac to get foreclosed property listings, but there hasn’t been a highly detailed option until now.

The even more powerful thing in my mind is the prospect of having a foreclose IDX feed availble for real estate professionals to embed in their own websites, or added to sites like Trulia. The lenders and asset managers will also benefit, as it’s hard to sell a house if nobody knows it’s for sale. As a real estate professional, we’re expected to know where every foreclosure property is and all the details. Depending on the lender and management company, the property info might be available on a hard to find and even harder to navigate website. How do the banks expect to minimize the loss they already take when buyers are lined up and don’t know where to go?

Hopefully sites like foreclosureradar start to pop up and provide more transparency to the foreclosure process. Just imagine: a concise list of all Astoria foreclosure homes right at your finger tips. That would be great!

On the dawn of the Astoria real estate bubble “bursting” sometime in 2006, the media told everyone that home prices would fall but don’t act just yet… Because they weren’t sure where the bottom was. Prospective buyers listened to the experts on TV and columnists in the national papers and waited for prices to plummet, ready to pounce on a great deal. I get a common question from almost anyone I talk to, when asked about the housing market here: How far have prices fallen? Have we hit the bottom yet?

I never give the answer that is expected. Sometimes I temper my answer with facts about the market place, why every real estate market is different, especially in Astoria, Oregon. Other times I just say “no, prices haven’t fallen and likely won’t.” Often the reply I get is a story about how a neighbor or friend of the inquirer sold their house recently, and had to reduce the list price several times to generate a sale.  “If they reduced their price $25,000 then how is it possible that prices haven’t fallen?”.

Let me clarify a couple of things. There’s a difference between housing prices falling, and not pricing a home correctly for the market. When pricing a home for sale, you must use market data and recent solds to determine the correct sales price. Often, sellers listen politely to the presentation of the CMA by their agent and pick their price that is based on what they would like to net. Then, after several showings and many months on the market the price is reduced closer to market price and they get an offer. (hint: that’s why it’s important to price your home correctly, so you get an offer the first 45 days not after 6 months). Reducing your sales price to get the attention of the buyer is different than home prices falling.

I’m no expert on the economy (but I did stay at a Holiday Inn once) but median sales price of a home is a much better indicator of where prices are overall. The median sales price takes into account all sales at all price ranges. Let’s look at median sold prices for the Astoria, Oregon real estate market.

source: Clatsop MLS

• 2005- $189,450
• 2006- $237,000
• 2007- $242,450

I know what you’re thinking “wait a minute, prices went up during the last 2 years?”.  Yep. I’ve been telling buyers not to wait, and this is exactly why. You see the public perception that prices are and will continue falling is incorrect, at least in our market. That is why it’s important to differentiate between multiple price reductions and falling prices. Rates are still low, and loans are available… Now stop watching Dr. Phil and go buy a house!

Dramatic changes in minimum requirements for home buyers may effect your ability to purchase a piece of real estate in Clatsop County. Many zero down programs have done away along with PMI, and new minimum credit scores will shrink the number of qualified buyers further. Fortunately, most of these changes are imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so gov’t backed loans like RD and FHA are still alternatives.

In Clatsop County, we’re fortunate to have RD loans available in all parts of the county. Specific income limits apply, but for those with little or no down payment this is the most attractive option.

Home buyers that got pre-qualified prior to April 1 need to contact your preferred lender and make sure the program is still available and meets your needs. The good news is rates are good for now, but will likely begin to climb slightly. Check with your mortgage professional for details.