Live From the Phone Booth

Breaking Down the Figures in John Wall's Potential Max Deal

2013-03-20T22:20:00.000-04:00

So by now you've heard or read in multiple spots that John Wall thinks he's a max player. You may have also read that he would be hurt if he wasn't offered a max contract from the Wizards. And if you've seen all of this, then you've definitely seen or heard the report that the Wizards plan on offering him a max extension as early as this July.

I'm not going to offer too much opinion on whether or not he is worthy of a max deal, because it shouldn't come as much of a surprise. I do get the feeling that Ted Leonsis is quietly (or not quietly) doing many of the same things that we didn't like about Abe Pollin (with Ernie playing the role of Wes Unseld). While I get every impression that Wall wants to be great, and works hard at it and takes his craft seriously, I can't help but think that the relationship between owner and star player is sometimes too much personal and not enough business. Couple that with the thought of paying/rewarding Wall and others (well other, see Blatche, Andray) before seeing the consistent production to warrant the extension, and I can see where there is a lot of angst about this ALLEGED report.

On the other hand, I do like John Wall. I understand that he represents a different type of star from our immediate past. His jumper, ballhandling, and other aspects of his game are all works in progress, but we would be remiss to not admit that we have seen SOME improvement. By improvement, it is apparent in how much better the team has played this season when he has played versus when he was out, but also in his individual improvement, PARTICULARLY in the last month. Besides that, I can see the argument that from a goodwill standpoint you have to offer him a max deal, because someone else probably will (more on that later). I get both sides of the coin, but the bottom line is, flaws and all, I EXPECTED him to be offered a max deal by us and can't say that I am upset about it. The question is, how much will all of this cost?

The salary cap structure in the new CBA, as I've written about in the Martell Webster post, is pretty intricate. As always, Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ is the source for most of the language here. I also used an NBA.com article from December 2011 on the ratification of the new CBA to verify salary increases, and I used ShamSports.com (h/t to @WorldwideJames for the reference) to verify some of my calculations. For the rest of the post below, let's use the assumption that the salary cap is $58.044 million. This is obviously subject to change, and probably will, but let's just start here, because I have no clue on what the new cap number will be, or if it changes at all (By the way, the cap has been flat since the 2010-11 season).

The first thing to realize with max contracts is that they certainly aren't all created equal. John Wall would be eligible for the max contract for a player that has been in the league for six years or less. There are exceptions to this, but he has not met hem, so let's move forward. A team that signs its own player to a max contract can offer up to five years. This makes the max contract for Wall approximately five years, $78.6 million (give or take).

(WARNING: NERDY NUMBERS ALERT! NERDY NUMBERS ALERT! The next two paragraphs get DEEP into the abyss of calculating figures. Skip the next two paragraphs if you don't much care about the math behind the totals.)

A max contract starts with a base year (first year) salary. The language of the 0-6 years of service max says that the base year salary can be up to 25% of the salary cap. However, as quoted from Larry Coon, They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. At the risk of getting TOO deep into the woods, the 25% of the cap figure is based on $54.671 million, not the $58.044 million. So this makes the base year salary $13.669 million.

A team that signs its own player to a max contract can offer up to five years. The offer starts with the fixed base year, as referenced above, and an annual salary increase of 7.5%. This would make the year two salary $14.694 million. After year two, the verbiage gets quite misleading. If you're like me, when you read "annual salary increase", you think that this means the player gets a 7.5% increase from the previous year's salary each season. Not the case. Actually, the dollar difference between years 1 and 2 is carried forward to the other years of the contract (See chart below).

YEAR	AMOUNT
1	$13.669
2	$14.694
3	$15.719
4	$16.744
5	$17.769
TOTAL	$78.595

So that's the deal. Basically it's Russell Westbrook's contract. Keep in mind that there are other options to factor in here. The above contract assumes that the Wizards list Wall as their designated player, part of a rule with the new CBA that states that only one player per team can receive a five-year extension. Is Wall our "designated" player? What about Beal, when his deal is up for extension? If I did this correctly, if Wall signs the four-year max instead of the five, the contract would be approximately four years, $60.8 million (See chart below).

YEAR	AMOUNT
1	$13.669
2	$14.694
3	$15.719
4	$16.744
TOTAL	$60.826

Another option, which would allegedly hurt Wall's feelings, and may or may not be seen as callous, is to not offer an extension at all this summer, wait until the end of next season, and put out the qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. This would let the market set his value, and would allow the Wizards to match any offer should he sign one with another team. This happened last summer with Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert, where Phoenix and Portland, respectively, signed them to offer sheets, and New Orleans and Indiana matched. Why is this advantageous? Well, a 0-6 years of service max contract from a team other than the Wizards can only offer up to four years, with the annual increase figure at 4.5%. This brings the total for this contract to about four years, $58.4 million (See chart below).

YEAR	AMOUNT
1	$13.669
2	$14.284
3	$14.899
4	$15.515
TOTAL	$58.367

A lot to consider and a lot to digest. The one thing that I'm slightly unclear about is when the new deal would begin if they offered the extension this July. I think the extension would kick in for the 2014-15 season, but I'd like to make sure of that. The answer to this question could impact our ability to re-sign Martell Webster.

Unveiling the Wizard: Martell Webster and the Salary Cap

2013-03-17T14:37:00.003-04:00

For a while now, many of us have been beating the drum to bring back Martell Webster. That drum is beating louder and louder as the season goes on and it is becoming increasingly evident that he should be a part of our future. The prevailing thought is, "pay him whatever it takes!" Unfortunately, with the salary cap and the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), things aren't quite that simple. I've researched and chatted with several people, and while I may be wrong, I think I have some understanding of where we stand.

The CBA is quite an intricate set of parameters. Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ is like the bible for this topic. It is incredible. To go through this as it relates to our situation with Webster, let's use this year's salary cap figure of $58.044 million and the luxury tax line of $70.307 million.

From what I have read of it, particularly the section about salary cap exceptions, I am fairly confident that the Wizards do not have Larry Bird rights for Martell Webster, so that, along with the fact that they will already be over the cap going into next season - per Hoops Hype, we stand at $57.4 million. I want to add that this number is with us having only nine players under contract going into next season. If we do nothing else but bring back Martell, sign our draft pick(s), and possibly bring over Satoransky, that puts us at 13 - means that the most that we can offer him is the mid-level exception (MLE). There are several different variations of the exception, but I think we are able to offer the non-taxpayer MLE, which is really the best of the MLEs given the monetary breakouts.

The MLE allows us to offer a contract of up to four years, with a starting salary next season of $5.15 million, with 4.5% annual increases thereafter. By my calculation, this adds up to four years, $22.033 million. Seems underwhelming, but maybe this will be enough. As good of a fit as Martell has been for us, and as much of a breakout season as he is having, he does have flaws. This could still work out for us.

Now keep in mind, there are still other factors at play. As @OBtoojiveforyou and @Above_Legit have pointed out, Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor (due $7.7 and $14.5 million next season, respectively) both have early termination options in the last year of their contracts after this season, and while I knew they had those options, I never really had much thought that they would use them (particularly Okafor). However, if a new contract offers more long-term financial security, the possibility certainly exists. A departure of either contract could obviously help us out. Maybe we trade Vesely or someone else, stranger things have happened. Sorry, I laughed as I typed it.

Hopefully someone will read this and tell me where or if I have mispoken, but I wanted to share the small bit of research that I have done on this. By the way, I now fully see the perspective that the Okariza trade hinders our flexibility. In the case of bringing back Webster, and adding further improvement to the team for next year, I definitely understand the argument.

Two Games, Several Observations

2012-11-03T21:28:00.002-04:00

I know I've been quiet for a while, but I'm back now with some quick-hit observations through two games:

We REALLY miss John Wall and Nenê.
The team is certainly a more scrappy, professional outfit. Is that a backhanded compliment? I'm not sure.
Too early to write things off, but early on, not really feeling Okafor and Ariza, particularly Ariza. I will readily admit to being wrong about something, and while I understood the logic in trading Rashard Lewis for those two, from here it looks like we've just extended the disastrous Gilbert Arenas contract another two years. Actually, Okafor and Ariza's contracts will be up at the same time as Gilbert's now amnestied deal. So did we just basically shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic here?
Speaking of trades and potentially dead money, we really need Nenê to get better. His presence on and off the floor have helped, but we certainly haven't seen enough of him playing. Otherwise, this is another long-term albatross of a deal (four years, $52M) that we're on the hook for.
Bradley Beal has been WAY too passive so far. We need to get him going. I obviously still believe in him, but he HAS to be more aggressive, as opposed to...
AJ Price. WHAT THE F*#%? I mean this guy has a lot of irrational confidence. Too much, in fact. He's been the exact opposite of Beal. Start Pargo. Sign Shaun Livingston. Hell, start Crawford. Anything, man.
Wittman.
GRUNFELD!
I like Martell Webster. Horrible end of the game shot against Boston aside, I think bringing him in was a good signing. He needs more clock. He needs to start over Ariza.
Early on, it seems that the youngster whose minutes are most affected by bringing in all these vets has been Chris Singleton.
Booker's jumper is improved.
Kevin Seraphin is our best player. There, I said it. His hook shot is money. He's rebounding and defending even seem improved after one game. I'll talk more about him in a future post, but I stand by that statement thus far.
I think until we get Wall and Nenê back, we should start Pargo, Beal (yea, still), and Webster with Seraphin and Okafor or Booker and Seraphin.

It's been two games. This is an interesting mix of old and young players. Wittman needed these early games to see who should remain in the rotation.

Is John Wall's Love of the Nightlife Cause for Concern?

2012-09-04T00:26:00.000-04:00

First and foremost, thanks to @freshxdesign for suggesting writing this after a brief Twitter convo. In the social media age, we have so much exposure to athletes via Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and whatever is next to surely come out in the next six months. Our faithful leader, John Wall, is a pretty regular tweeter. But if you follow his timeline, you'll see that the homie loves the ladies and loves to party. A lot. Is that a big deal? Should we be concerned? Is his personal life any of our business?

By all accounts, John Wall checks out as a good kid. No known or public troubles with the law. Marketable. Good with the media. He's a 21-year old (his 22nd birthday is actually September 6) with money, fame, and groupies. Why do we care that he parties at night? Maybe the bigger question is why SHOULDN'T he party at night?!?!? Well, I tend to not take athlete tweets too seriously. Too many fans expect the stars of their favorite teams to eat, sleep, and sh*t their respective crafts. Not only is this stance not realistic, it's not fair. These people, are, in fact, people. They work hard, but should be given allowance to play as well. So this is a non-issue, right? Well, somewhat.

Playing devil's advocate, the Wizards have a loooong history with partying (Webber? Strickland?). In recent years though, when we think of Wizards and partying, we, right or wrong, automatically think of Andray Blatche. Our perception of 7-Day Dray was that he was more dedicated to his extra-curricular activities than to basketball. He often played out of shape and lacked effort on the court, but he was an all-pro at clubbing. So with all of this baggage with Dray, is it fair to think of him when we see John Wall's summer tour of nightclubs and jownts? I'd say no. BUT, it can lead you to ask some questions.

How come he doesn't tweet nearly as much about workouts he's had? Is he doing the pickup game tour like last year, or is he doing more structured things? After seeing conflicting reports about how well he did on the USA Select Team, but seeing nothing but glowing reviews on Kyrie Irving, shouldn't we be seeing or hearing more about progress he's making? Hell, after last season, where we expected a big jump and, while there was improvement, there wasn't what we probably unrealistically expected, shouldn't he be showing more dedication? Has he become OK with losing?

I can say that I give Jimmy the benefit of the doubt and not read into or judge his tweets. To add to this, Kevin Seraphin tweets about Snaky, and all kinds of random things. Booker is a TV and movie buff. We know this from their tweets and they're not in the gym at 3 in the morning like Gilbert used to be, so is this all just one big double standard? I'm going on faith that the guy really cares about improving and honing his craft, and while he doesn't tweet about it as much as we may like, he really is working on getting better as a point guard and a leader. However, if we get to the upcoming season and he still hasn't shown improvement in the obvious areas to which he is lacking, this conversation could potentially gain some steam. Is John Wall truly dedicated to being a star in this league? I hope we don't have to legitimately ask this question. I hope I'm just writing this because it's late and I felt like rambling. I hope this doesn't become the elephant in the gym.

UPDATE: I was careful to write things like we don't see "as much" about work that Wall has done because, to be fair, we did see a number of positive things earlier in the summer in addition to being on the USA Select Team. Per comment from @BenAgent0 below, I should mention that we have seen numerous tweets and comments from NBA players and others that his jumper has improved, and we were all giddy when Michael Lee reported back in July that he had been working with shot guru Dave Hopla. Thanks.

Trading Cap Room for Cap Hell?

2012-07-05T22:14:00.001-04:00

Four years, $58 million for Roy Hibbert? The same for Eric Gordon, even though he's missed over a third his games since being in the NBA? Three years, $25 million for Omer Asik? Four years, $30 million for Jeremy Lin, based almost solely on a stellar month of February? Minnesota potentially offering over $11 million per year for Nic Batum? Four years, $40 million for Jeff Green?!?!!?? There's been a lot of tomfoolery occurring in the first week of free agency. For those that complained that the Wizards trade for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza used up all of our cap space, that it squandered our cap space and put us in a cap hell, how do you feel about THESE contracts?

Even if you argued that both are marginal players that are overpaid based on their skillsets, both contracts expire in two seasons. The deals that we've been witnessing this week would have put us closer to said hell than our current situation. I think it's easy to lay blame when the front office makes poor decisions, but why is it so difficult to give praise when warranted? Look, for all I know, both Okafor and Ariza could totally suck, but they will be off the books by the end of the 2013-14 season, where by then we should have much more clarity on what John Wall is and whether or not he really is our franchise star. We'll be in good position to re-sign our own young talent, and should also have room left for, if we feel so inclined, that offseason's free agent class, which includes Carmelo Anthony, Danny Granger, and Marcin Gortat (to name a few) as unrestricted agents, and a slew of stars with player options.

With the improvement of non-playoff teams like Brooklyn, Toronto, and maybe Milwaukee, the marginal improvement or flat position of New York and Philly (I'm sleeping on them though), and possible regression of Orlando (Howard won't be there) and Chicago (I'm counting on DRose not being DRose next season), I think the Wizards are legitimate contenders for a low playoff spot in 2012-13. There's no way we could've realistically made that statement a month ago with Nene and a bunch of kids on their rookie deals. I think bringing in the vets we've acquired will greatly aid the development of Wall, Beal, Seraphin, Booker, etc. as professionals, and begin to foster a winning environment around here. At the very least, we should no longer have a corrosive environment that stunts their growth. Stay tuned.

To me, at the end of the day the Wizards may have used their current cap room, but they are by no means in cap hell. For the moment, I think the trade allowed us to compete now without greatly curbing the progress of our youth and our cap flexibility. For that, I am thankful.

Literally Live From the Phone Booth: Draft Party at the Verizon Center!

2012-06-29T16:45:00.000-04:00

When my buddy Ju-Ice asked me the other day if I wanted to attend the Draft Party at Verizon Center last night, I didn't know what to expect. We left before the end of the first round, but we had a great time. Below the jump are my accounts of the evening at the Phone Booth.

As we walk up 7th Street, we are stopped by two upstanding gentlemen that offered to sell us premium seats for tonight's draft party at the bargain-basement price of only $20 each! Hard to turn that down, right? Well, we did (this didn't actually happen, but there were scalper-like guys hanging along the entrance just like on game nights. I promise to try not to make up any more stories to make the night seem more fun).
We're in! I didn't know how many people to expect at this thing, but I was pleasantly surprised at the turnout. It was a good showing considering that the team has won less than 45 games COMBINED over the last two seasons. I was proud of our fans. Ju-Ice and I take a ceremonial lap around the Verizon Center. We're both still extremely nervous about the pick. Is Charlotte going to trade out of the #2, meaning we would be forced to watch our whole night (and, the trade. Whether it's true or not, that's how it would have felt) go up in smoke? Is Charlotte keeping the pick, taking Bradley Beal, but holding him for a king's ransom to the seemingly 28 other teams that covet him? What if Beal is available at 3, and Ernie goes all "Ernie" on us? Ju-Ice asks me that if I check Twitter, just don't tell him. I say OK, but I'm not sure if that's possible. Needless to say, there was great anxiety about the moments ahead.
We link up with my brother and three other friends, and we get our seats.
Draft Time! You can hear the New Jersey crowd booing David Stern all the way here! He loves this crap. He's the real-life Vince McMahon. Anyway, Stern announces that the Hornets are on the clock, which is hilarious to me. New Orleans has known who they were picking since approximately 8:27p.m. on May 30. Three minutes or so later, the pick is in, and wouldn't you know it, the pick is Anthony Davis.
Charlotte is on the clock! This is the whole draft right here. The tension in the air is thick! I still never saw anything concrete about any trading of the pick. This is really the first time in a couple of weeks where I really comfortably felt like we could end up with Beal. The pick is in: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist! Verizon Center erupts! Friends and total strangers are high-fiving each other! Great moment.
I can't underscore enough how big a moment that seemed to be for Wizards fans. We've all hoped for the best, but expected the worst through this whole nightmarish ride. I don't remember in recent years a fan base being so locked in to one guy. And I know that there were a number of people who felt like Thomas Robinson, MKG, Andre Drummond, and even Harrison Barnes were better picks for us, but the large majority were keyed in on Bradley Beal. ESPECIALLY after the trade. We feared every smokescreen and bought every rumor, but it looks like we made it. Unless Ernie blows it...
BRADLEY BEAL!!! WE GOT HIM! HOLY SH*T!!! WE GOT HIM!!!!
Our attention is brought back to the stage on the floor (inconsequential to mention earlier), Steve Buckhantz and Dave Johnson bring out a special guest, it's John Wall, or John Walls per the jumbotron!

Courtesy of WashingtonPost

He said some stuff, and I'm sure I should've listened more intently being as though I'm now trying to be a writer/columnist/blogger/whatever and all, but I'm sorry, I was having too much fun. To paraphrase what Jimmy said, it was a great pick, Beal will fit right in, and he's may fill Beal's car up with popcorn as a birthday present/gag.
After the pick, we're only asked on four different occasions if we were interested in buying season tickets. There was a strict 'don't make eye contact' policy in regard to them.
Not too much of significance after that, but to sum the remaining highlights in one bullet and in no particular order: a good number of people openly laughed at the Dion Waiters pick; the video chat with Beal was great, already a big fan of how he carries himself alone; the Damian Lillard footage televised on ESPN looked like it was shot with a 1980s home video camera; Myron bet me that Jeremy Lamb would be the best SG in this draft class; dance segment for Wizards Girls finalists; Lee guaranteed that the Cowboys would win the NFC East; dance segment for Wizards Girls finalists; Donte' guaranteed the 49ers would be in the Super Bowl, we discussed whether or not the Wizards should get back into round 1 to draft the plummeting Perry Jones, and lastly, dance segment for Wizards Girls finalists.

The rest of the night, including Ernie drafting an unknown (to most fans, not to scouts, and Jan Vesely), 6'7 Czech point guard that can't shoot with pick 32, happened outside of the Phone Booth for me. That pick ruined the night for some people. Not me, because A.) uh duh, we have Bradley Beal, and B.) while I would've liked to have gotten Quincy Miller, Doron Lamb, or Kevin Murphy (I liked everything I read about him), I don't know anything about this kid and maybe he'll be OK in a couple of years. I also read Mike Prada rationalize things before the draft and after the pick by saying that whoever went with this pick wasn't going to see the floor anyway, so and draft and stash was a real possibility. I'm not defending the pick. I didn't like it. But nothing that happened here was going to completely taint the evening for me.

Coming soon, we'll look at what little free agency action is possibly for the Wizards, and what lies ahead for our squad in 2012-13!

If Not Bradley Beal, Then What?

2012-06-22T22:29:00.000-04:00

Mike Prada at Bullets Forever posed a great question earlier today, amid mild speculation that the Cleveland Cavaliers may be tempted to move up to #2 to draft Bradley Beal ahead of the Wizards. Besides me being distraught about this happening, what would be the best ~~plan B~~ alternative?
This is quite the conundrum, as there are several ways the team could go:

Draft Thomas Robinson. This just seems to further complicate what is already a glut in the frontcourt, but would definitely follow the best player available formula. I will say however that just because there's a glut in a certain area doesn't mean that we can't strive to improve the players that we do have. Still, with Okafor most likely playing center (and I would assume in the starting lineup), and Nene at power forward, this also definitely implies another trade. Seraphin has proven that he should log big minutes in 2012-13, and as it projects now, he appears to be the first big off the bench. Seraphin can play center though. Drafting Robinson would seem to really pinch Booker's minutes. A great problem to have, but still. Somewhere T-Rob has managed to move slightly ahead of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on my draft board.

Draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Again after we just acquired Trevor Ariza, already have our new/old backup in Chris Singleton, and don't know what to make of Jan Vesely, this too seems like strictly sticking to the best player available formula (I mean for us to pick MKG over Robinson it would have to be), which really isn't a bad thing. This choice also suggests that a trade is likely. This is a helluva fallback option, but not ideal if you ask me. Besides, we still haven't addressed our shooting woes.

Draft Harrison Barnes. Heeeeeeere's the shooter. But like with MKG, we have stocked the shelves with small forwards. Can Barnes play the 2? He did test out to be more athletic than people anticipated. He seems to be quite the polarizing figure in this draft, as some think he can be a bonafide star and others think he's Calbert Cheaney. Actually, there's several polarizing figures in this draft. Maybe it's me, but the range of opinion on many of these guys, especially MKG, Barnes and Andre Drummond, seems more all over the place than usual. I have a feeling Barnes is going to be good. Not sure how good, but good, especially with a good point guard. This is the option that I'm coming around to and is currently the one I would most likely choose if no Beal.

Trade down. If Beal were off the board, this option also intrigues me quite a bit, but ONLY depending on what the offer is. If Portland calls offering the 6th and 11th picks, I may have to give that some serious thought. There are guys like Jeremy Lamb and Terrence Ross that are of interest at SG. Otherwise, I'm 98% I'd hang onto the #3 and take Barnes.

All of the above are good alternatives, but options one and two still require us to fill the void at shooting guard. I don't want Crawford starting. I guess there will be SG options available early in the second round, or we could package the #32 with another player (Booker comes to mind immediately when I think of trades for some reason) to get back into the first round or even late-lottery. All in all, I'm ready for Thursday to get here.

UPDATE: Yea, so I don't know for sure what direction I would go if Beal were gone. After a night's sleep, I'm pretty sure I'd rule out trading down unless it was for Portland's #6 and #11 and we want Barnes and feel like he's going to be there at 6. Otherwise, we have to cash in on having that #3. From what I wrote last night, the question is can you realistically see drafting Barnes with Thomas Robinson and MKG on the board? This morning, I'm not so sure that I could.

Initial Trade Thoughts

2012-06-20T22:24:00.003-04:00

We traded Rashard Lewis! All we had to do was take on two contracts the New Orleans Hornets didn't want and give them our second 2nd round pick! The cynical opinion of today's trade is that by acquiring Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza we have ruined our previously stellar cap situation by picking up overpaid, marginal players on the downsides of their respective careers. I admit that I generally take the glass half-full approach to things, but I feel like I logically disagree with the above sentiment. I'm convinced that there are fans that are so scorned by the past that they refuse to acknowledge or admit that the Wizards and Ernie Grunfeld can make a good move. This trade, to me, makes us better in the short-term while at the same time does not hamstring us long-term. Below are some initial thoughts on why I feel this way.

Okafor and Ariza's contracts expire in two years. This is hardly cap-crippling and I don't think these are non=productive players. Even in the worst-case scenario that neither player pans out here, both contracts will be expiring at the end of next season, making them valuable on the trade market. Of course I don't know offhand who will be free agents by the summer of 2014, but I do know that we will have the option to be players. The other side of the coin is that our homegrown talent will be at or near the point where we have to decide whether to lock them up or let them walk. Sure we won't be major players in this year's (or next year's, presumably) free agent frenzy, but who was out there that everybody was pining for that we could have realistically signed? Did anyone really believe we were going to be in the market to give Eric Gordon a max deal this offseason without New Orleans matching? Harden next year? Are either worth max contracts? Did anybody see Harden last night (I know, I know, he's young and he had a bad series. I get that, but even before that I wasn't certain that he was a max player.)?

The rebuild to respectability is not going to happen with 11 youngins and Nene. Not only that, I believe that we've seen that developing young players in a losing environment is a losing proposition. Players are apt to pick up bad habits, jaded mindsets, and general indifference. Why not have our promising young players learn and grow in a somewhat winning environment? With actual contributing professional veterans on the roster, John Wall, the #3 pick (Beal), the #32 pick (assuming we keep it), Seraphin, Booker, Vesely, Crawford, all of these guys can build winning habits, which would appear to be a lot easier to develop when the team is, hello, winning. I'm not ready to determine one way or another if this move was also not-so-subtlely done to begin the "Keep John Wall in DC" movement, but I can't think that having an at least .500 roster with savvy vets would hurt.

We're pushing for a playoff spot now. Yeah, I understand that this team is a MAJOR stretch to be a serious contender, but with the changes made and the draft picks added (one of which HAS to be Bradley Beal for me. Have I mentioned that I'm in favor of us drafting Beal?), I absolutely at the moment expect us to contend for a playoff spot THIS season. Why is that a bad thing? We kicked and screamed about how bad we've been, but now we're in a position to be watching basketball in May instead of waiting for the lottery. Besides, how many years were we from being a SERIOUS contender anyway? Three? Four? Well, the contracts of the players we acquired today expire in two, so what's the harm?

We have immediately improved as a defensive and rebounding unit. I'd need to check some real stats to back this statement, but I would assume so. On top of that, Ariza stands at the very least as a passable option as a starting SF, and Okafor, when healthy provides a good defensive presence, if nothing else. This also allows Nene to move to PF, where he prefers to be.

The frontcourt seems to suddenly be a big-time strength. Can we agree that we're excited about Seraphin? How about Booker? So our frontcourt depth chart would seem to consist of Okafor, Seraphin at C, Nene and Booker, at PF, Ariza and Singleton at SF, and whatever the hell position Vesely is. I'm not counting Blatche. I'm going to assume he won't play much even if he is on the roster, which I doubt, by the way. Everyone wanted James Singleton back, but at this point, is there room for him? I'd keep him and amnesty Blatche, if anything. Seeing all of this begs the question, is another trade in the works?

The draft seems more clear now. Last but not least, I would hope that this STRONGLY hints at us drafting Bradley Beal with the third pick. If he's taken, which I'd doubt, I would now consider Harrison Barnes as the next option, although I'm not sure he can play SG. Bottom line, our draft can now focus on getting a legit scorer with the third pick, and even the #32. Also, what little cap room we will have remaining can focus on bringing in a guy or two that can put the ball in the bucket.

All in all, I am obviously happy with the trade. I look forward to next Thursday, and don't feel 100% certain that we are finished making deals this offseason.

Look At All These Rumors, Surrounding Me Everyday - June 6, 2012

2012-06-06T16:03:00.000-04:00

Sam Amick of CNNSI says there's buzz that the Wizards are leaning towards Thomas Robinson. Chad Ford of ESPN says, "The Wizards like where they are in the draft. They've been debating between Kidd-Gilchrist and Beal for months. If one of them is off the board, they'll be happy with the other." What I'm getting at is this time of year, EVERYONE has "unnamed sources" and "people in the know", which is why I don't put much stock into all of the rumors. Seems like national media nowadays tend to throw any story, even unconfirmed and unsubstantiated ones, out there, under the premise that one of them will stick to the wall eventually. It's not about being right as much as it's about being first. So when I hear this writer's source say a team is going to do this, and another writer's source say something that totally contradicts that, I just laugh. It's almost as if the national writers and columnist aren't much different than us common folk that give our opinions on forums or Bleacher Report, or those idiots that think people read their stupid little blog entries (thanks for reading, by the way). Anyway, just be careful what you read and to whom you believe.

Who Should the Wizards Draft? Post-Lottery Version - May 31, 2012

2012-05-31T07:15:00.000-04:00

Now that we know that the Wizards have drawn the third pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, the debate can now begin about what happens next. While I understand that Nene's staying healthy is a concern, I see promise with our frontcourt, and while adding a veteran big or two (the 'or two' would be under the assumption that Blatche is gone. By the way, I have a sneaky suspicion that he will be back) is no doubt sure to happen, I think we'll be OK there. I reiterate that I think that by far our biggest weakness is perimeter scoring, and for that reason, I think Bradley Beal should be the pick. To repeat what I said about him in my last entry:

Beal is an undersized shooting guard that, despite experts raving about his shooting touch, didn't shoot all that well in his lone season in college. Still, when "Ray Allen meets Eric Gordon" is the description that Chad Ford gives him, I get excited. He is an able defender, strong, great rebounder for his position, and possesses the potential to be the scoring option that we so sorely need.

Despite shooting 44% from the field and 33% from three-point range last season, I've read and heard enough to be convinced that the kid is good shooter. One obscure stat that jumps out at me from his freshman year at Florida is that despite the undersized guard thing, he still managed to average 6.7 rebounds a game. That's a very good number for a shooting guard, much less a short one. We'll see in a couple of weeks how he actually measures out, but Beal mentioned in this DraftExpress.com interview of him before the 2011 McDonald's All-American Game that he was 6'4 1/2. I've viewed a number of draft profiles, particularly the ones at Draft Express and NBADraft.net, and I know the perceived strengths and weaknesses inside out. I just envision him fitting in perfectly with an improved John Wall.

If Beal is gone, what's the alternative?

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - I've read all about him too. He's universally described as a winner, an attack hound, just a boundless display of energy and intelligence at the small forward position. His lack of a consistent jumper is all that concerns me with him, PARTICULARLY considering that the Wizards possess an incredible lack of perimeter shooting. Having said all of that, I would by no means be upset if he were the pick.
Thomas Robinson - Beast mode I know, but not so sure how I feel about him coming home to play, and besides, UNLESS there's a trade in place, I just don't think our first pick should be used on a frontcourt player.
Andre Drummond - An uber-athletic big with loads of potential, incredible physical gifts, raw offensive game, potential maturity issues, and concern about lack of commitment to the game? No, I didn't just describe JaVale McGee (to be fair, I don't doubt Pierre's commitment to the game), that's Andre Drummond. No thanks, I'm good.
Harrison Barnes - I think he'll be a good pro. I think taking him with the third pick though would be a bit high, unless we...
Trade Down - Depends on the offer, right? I mean if Portland wants to give up the 6 and 11 for the 3, do you say no? This is not a very likely scenario, but this draft is being considered a loaded one, and the #3 pick is a HUGE asset.

The NBA Lottery - What if the Wizards...

2012-05-27T15:20:00.002-04:00

I've written a lot on the Twitter about the Wizards and the upcoming NBA Draft Lottery that takes place on May 30. Looking at the lottery odds (see chart below), our highest probability of selection is the fourth pick, with our second highest being the first pick. Of course, we all hope that Zach Leonsis can be the lucky charm we need to win the lottery and the right to select Anthony 'The Brow' Davis with the first pick (By the way, what do you think happens once Anthony Davis gets into the NBA? Will groupies accept the unibrow? Will he keep it as some sort of a trademark? If he becomes a superstar, could he do what even Al B. Sure couldn't, which is to turn the unibrow into some sort of a fashion statement, where people with unibrows will stop shaving them and go out with pride, saying, "Hey, if Anthony Davis can rock it, maybe I can too!"? Maybe he'll parlay this into some sort of an endorsement deal for laser hair removal? Maybe I'm putting too much thought into this?). Let's go through some of the possibilities:

Scenario 1: Wizards Win the Lottery
In this instance, we undoubtedly select Anthony Davis. But then what? One could argue that there was a blossoming glut in the frontcourt anyway with Nene, blossoming talents like Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin (there's also Andray Blatche, for whom we're still unsure about what's going on), as well as Jan Vesely. You would think that one of these would definitely be trade bait, right? As amazing as drafting Davis would be, that would mean that we still haven't addressed perimeter scoring, which I think is the team's biggest need. Maybe there's a way to trade for a proven wing player, or move back into the lottery somehow to grab another player. More on this later.

Scenario 2: Wizards End Up Selecting Between 2 and 4
This specific scenario was discussed on Bullets Forever. There appear to be strong candidates in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (MKG), Bradley Beal, and Thomas Robinson, depending on how the chips fall. What do you go for in this situation, best player available or need/fit? This is so tough to decide, and the decision will have ramifications for the next several seasons.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (MKG) - MKG is pegged as a potential elite defender, with prototypical small forward size (6'7, 220s), that has all of the intangibles of a good player, but hasn't proven to have a consistent jumper or scoring ability. By drafting him, you could presumably have the SF position sewn up with a winner that, while he still hasn't shown a knock-down jumper, has shown other ways of scoring efficiently and effectively. He could basically be our best-case scenario with Chris Singleton, maybe a better version of Andre Iguodala. But is it too soon to give up on Singleton? Is he just a marginal player, or could he make a big jump in his second season, the way Booker and Seraphin did?

Thomas Robinson - Thomas Robinson can best be described as a beast. He is an extremely athletic, aggressive 4 that offers tenacious rebounding and a still-developing offense. He's a potential game-changer, but much like with drafting Anthony Davis, doesn't drafting him make at least one of our other promising bigs expendable? And if so, which one? This may sound way off base, but how do we know that Robinson is a whole lot better than a polished Trevor Booker? I understand drafting Robinson if you think he's a clear upgrade over what we currently have, but I'm not 100% certain that he is.

Bradley Beal - Beal is an undersized shooting guard that, despite experts raving about his shooting touch, didn't shoot all that well in his lone season in college. Still, when "Ray Allen meets Eric Gordon" is the description that Chad Ford gives him, I get excited. He is an able defender, strong, great rebounder for his position, and possesses the potential to be the scoring option that we so sorely need.

I won't even begin to distinguish which player is going to be the best pro, but given that MKG and Robinson are still developing their offensive repertoires, I tend to lead towards Beal for the moment and hope that he can be the Eric Gordon-type that so many have projected him to be.

Scenario 3: Wizards End Up Selecting Fifth
I don't want to even think about this scenario, but I guess we have to. In this situation, there is a lot more going on. You could play it safe and draft Harrision Barnes, or take a chance with super talents with questionable desire like Andre Drummond and Perry Jones, III. OR you could trade the pick one of the several teams with multiple first round picks (New Orleans has two unprotected lottery picks, and Portland could end up with two lottery picks, as one is somewhat protected. Houston, Cleveland, Boston, and possibly Golden State also have two first round picks, but not the two lottery pick potential that New Orleans and Portland possess.). Unless I was able to trade down a couple of slots, and pick up an extra lottery pick, I think I'd just draft Barnes.

There's also an abundance of trade scenarios. I really don't think Eric Gordon is a realistic option for us short of a sign and trade, but good players like Andre Iguodala are said to be on the market. Is the contract of Rashard Lewis an attractive option to a team like Philly? If so, this could certainly affect draft plans. If not Lewis, Booker, Seraphin, or even Nene could be used as trade chips to bring back scorers or additional draft picks. Let's not forget about the two second round picks either. There's a lot going on, and a lot of opportunities to make an improvement, even more than I've mentioned here. The promise has to be exciting if you're a Wizards fan. Hopefully Ernie Grunfeld won't screw it up. This roster has the potential to be very attractive for the head coach of the team next season. By the way, who's the coach????

Ernest Rides Again

2012-04-23T23:18:00.000-04:00

So it was announced tonight that Ernie Grunfeld will remain with as president of your Washington Wizards. As much as I thought there MAY be a change, and as surprised as I am that Ted Leonsis apparently not only didn't interview other candidates but TURNED DOWN requests to interview others, I cannot say that I am terribly shocked by this happening.

Surely the Nenê trade was a clue that Ernie being back was more than a possibility to occur. I would have been on board with a new GM, but I'm not broken up over it. He’s DEFINITELY made his share of mistakes, but I’d almost bet that many of them were under not too subtle orders from Abe Pollin (To be specific, I'm talking about re-signing Gilbert and Antawn, and trading the #5 pick in the 2009 Draft). I’m not even about defending the bad decisions but let’s just look at now.

You guys do know that these players that everyone’s excited about now were also brought in under his watch, right? Let’s not be completely one-sided here. All I’m saying is that while we’re quick to bash all of the mistakes, let’s remember that this 2010 draft class that we’re suddenly so amped about (Wall, Seraphin, Booker, and Crawford, who was also from that class) and the cap flexibility that we now have was his too. Many can and will discredit the John Wall pick as luck of the draw. Cool. Luck happens. As much as everybody slurps Sam Presti, he was still a tad lucky that he was left with Durant instead Oden in 2007. I just think we’ve gotten so enamored with hating Ernie that we COMPLETELY discredit any good that he’s done.

I said all of that to say here’s to a little more luck with the top pick in the lotto. Even if not the number one pick, a top five pick gives us the opportunity to bring in a long-term stud. Two second round picks, if used wisely, may also be helpful either by actually using them on useful players or by using the picks in trade (maybe to get back into the first round?). Blatche can be amnestied. The remainder of Rashard’s contract ($13.7M last I checked) can be paid off or it could be an asset in a trade. We have cap room. We, hopefully, can look forward to development in a legitimate offseason for Wall, Seraphin, Booker, Crawford, and Vesely. Things are looking up! And these positive vibes have also occurred under the watch of Ernest F. Grunfeld (I made the 'F' up. I used to love when Tony K did that with Donovan McNabb).

OK, I'm done. Back to your regularly scheduled Wizards-bashing.

Who Should the Wizards Draft? Version 1 - March 25, 2012

2012-03-25T14:47:00.000-04:00

As we are witnessing in this year's NCAA Tournament, many of the prospects that the Wizards are in position to draft are on display. I currently have the 2012 NBA Draft top 5 for the Wizards as follows:

Anthony Davis - Just...I'm slightly fearful of another freakish athlete type, but you can't look at guys in a vacuum that way. Just appears to be a great kid who's still growing into his body. If I didn't know any better, I'd think the kid was a blossoming guard, who almost overnight had a dramatic growth spurt and is now learning to be a big man while still having some of the skillset of a guard. Oh..that IS what happened?
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - My friend Hue RAVES about this guy. He has prototypical size for a 3, all the intangibles you want out of a player, and just seems to always be where he needs to be. An absolute hound on defense, and appears to have the work ethic and want to improve his jump shot.
Bradley Beal - Color me impressed with what little I've seen of him. He's a short 2, but when "Ray Allen meets Eric Gordon" is the description that Chad Ford gives him, I'm too excited to care.
Thomas Robinson - Local product, cold monster on the glass. Intent on learning and excelling at his craft. He and Davis are power forwards, which would compromise Booker, but I think you have to take the chance.
Harrison Barnes - Despite his horrible performance against Ohio, he still projects to be a 3 in the NBA that can put the ball in the hoop, which is by the way a glaring need for this team.

These all appear to be good kids, and their work ethic and desire have been among the superlatives attached to each at some point. This draft seems so loaded that you almost can't go wrong if you have a top 5 pick, which we project to have. Thought: Would you trade Booker for an additional lottery pick?

Does 1 - 2 = Positive?

2012-03-23T13:34:00.000-04:00

I fought it until the bitter end. I did. I went all the way to the wire with JaVale McGee. As a fan, I can admit to being guilty of putting on blinders to things. Sometimes, even if we KNOW the truth, we deny it or keep ourselves from admitting it just because we WANT to believe otherwise. It started to get difficult. I definitely began to waver over the course of the season though, you HAVE to give me that. You know what? I'm not even going to get into it. Let's move forward.

When I first heard of the trade that sent JaVale McGee to the Nuggets, Nick Young to the Clippers, and Nenê, a future second-round pick, and ~~a 240-lb bench weight~~ Brian Cook to the Wizards, I found myself being a bit cynical about it. Nenê? Isn't he overpaid? Aren't his knees shot? Isn't he always injured? What happened to Hilario? Why did Denver dump him so quickly after signing him to a five-year deal? But as I thought more about it and weighed the positives, I began to feel better about things. After several days, I now feel a LOT better about it. I would say that we took a gamble here, but it seemed to be a necessary gamble.

I remember the testicular cancer and I know that he's a tough guy, but the first thing I naively thought of regarding Nenê was that he seemed to ALWAYS be hurt. I was surprised and encouraged to find that since returning from his leave of absence at the end of the 2007-08 season, Nenê has played 77, 82, and 75 games, respectively. He's had nagging foot and calf injuries this season, but nothing apparently knee-related.

The second cynical thought was that this Nenê character is about to be 30 years old, a history of knee injuries, and making $13 million per year for the next four seasons after this one. He's been in the league for ten seasons (he did miss almost two entire seasons with the aforementioned ailments), that's a lot of mileage on those legs. How do we know this isn't going to be a case of us again trading young for old, bringing in yet another washed-up vet, coming to Washington to grow old and wither?

But then I thought about what we had. A pair of guys that, while I still have no doubts that they want to improve and be great NBA players, just don't seem to have it upstairs to handle the roles that we expected of them at this point. In situations where they are not pillars of the team, maybe Nick and JaVale will pan out and flourish. It wasn't happening here, though. So in this scenario, if you add one and subtract two, I think that the result is positive. I believe the phrase "addition by subtraction" comes to mind.

We HAD to do something and, to be honest, we could've done worse. Nenê brings a sense of professionalism, on-court smarts, and attitude (already displayed) that I think we needed. He can serve as a mentor to Kevin Seraphin, who has shown obvious improvement over the last couple of months (didn't he say Nenê was his idol or something at some point? Or did we try to compare Nenê's game with where we thought Kevin's could go?) And he still has value to be traded if it doesn't work out. Given the salary floor, and the fact that if we let JaVale walk we would've needed a center anyway, I'm fine with the move. It's one less position to worry about in the draft and in free agency, allowing us to focus on the SF and SG positions this offseason.

It could also provide John Wall with some sort of sense that the organization is serious about improving and not wasting his formative years as a pro by surrounding him with players with either questionable work ethics, limited on-court awareness, or selfish agendas. He says all the right things, but who knows, Wall may have been seriously beginning to question the direction of the franchise and if he wanted to be a part of it moving forward. I think getting a guy like Nenê could speak volumes to John Wall. I also think that having a veteran teammate that is a professional AND a vital cog on the team, not a bit player, can rub off positively on him.

This offesason is CRUCIAL to this team's long-term success. We've basically begun another on the fly rebuild, starting with acquiring Nenê and getting rid of Nick and JaVale. Oh, and JaVale's mom. All we need to do from here is amnesty Blatche, pay off the remaining guaranteed portion of Rashard Lewis' deal, nail a money swing player in the draft, sign another, and figure out who the new coach and GM will be, and we'll be all set! Simple, right?

In closing, Andray Blatche is fat. Later!

Ranking the Wizards

2012-03-10T12:56:00.000-05:00

So today has been an interesting day for Wizards fans. First, the Marc Stein report that the Wiz were among teams expressing strong interest in Andrew Bogut, which implies, as Mike Lee reported, that there is a willingness to trade JaVale McGee. Then the tweet by Mike Lee that the Wizards are so desperate to trade Andray Blatche that they'd be willing to trade anybody on the roster not named John Wall to get rid of him. Upon following this all day, and reading Bill Simmons' annual trade value column, I decided to group our roster categories based on my willingness to trade them.

Old guys that are gone anyway

Roger Mason
Maurice Evans
What do I need to say here? Next...

Rashard Lewis
Is it possible that a team that needs cap space this offseason to make a move for one of the meagstars would be willing to take on Rashard's contract and then release him at season's end for $13.7M? Like who would be dumb enough to do that? While I don't expect it to happen it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Anyway, let's just assume he's not traded and we pay him to beat it after the season.

GTFOH

Andray Blatche
Persona non grata. While I'm indifferent to the booing, I don't think it's anybody's place to determine whether or not a person is a "real fan" based on their booing or not booing of Blatche. He's worn out his welcome, consistently out of shape, and completely maddening to root for. And that's before he says the booing makes him feel sad inside. That made it worse. Doubt he gets traded unless we either take back another team's headache or we include somebody that we really want to keep. ~~I hope this "desperation" to trade him does not mean they are willing to give up one of our two true cornerstones. Damn, was that a spoiler?~~ Ignore those last two sentences.

Nick Young
Nick is so...frustrating. I mean he obviously can score, and can be a good on-the-ball defender at times, but I just don't see how his game has progressed in any other facet. In the win against the Lakers Wednesday night, he had a career-high six assists. Now every Wizards fans that truly follows the team had to do a double take upon seeing that in the box score. He averages only 2.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game on the season. That's just not getting it done. And he wanted $9M per season? He lost a lot of money with his play this season, and I don't think we can keep him AND Jordan Crawford. If he can't be traded for fair value (I'm not even sure what fair value is, but if it's considered to be only a second round pick, I think I'd just keep him for the rest of the season), just let him walk unrestrictedly out of here after the season ends. That is UNLESS Jordan Crawford is traded for something deemed worthy and Nick realizes that he is best suited signing for $3-4M and coming off the bench. Riiiiiiiiiiight.

I like them as Wizards, but....

Shelvin Mack
Ronny Turiaf
Kevin Seraphin
Chris Singleton
Jordan Crawford
Jan Vesely
I'm not ready to go out and call these guys core pieces yet, but I recognize the potential and would like to see how they pan out here. I'm curious as to how Singleton and Vesely develop, and I'm curious to see if Crawford can ever reign himself in more consistently. These are guys that I think are more than fill-ins to any proposed trade. I'm hesitant to be so bold as to call them assets, but I think semi-assets or maybe bait describes how I think they can be viewed in trade talks. Does that make sense? In other words, if trading one of them was a trading partner's demand as a throw-in to get a good player back, I'd have to part ways. (For the record, Turiaf probably doesn't belong in this group, as he's a bit of a journeyman at this point, but I think so highly of him I threw him in here. I LOVE what Turiaf seemed to bring to our team before he got hurt. I'd really be good with us re-signing him for next season.)

I don't even know any more

JaVale McGee
I'm so tired of writing about JaVale. I've defended him all year, and he's just worn me down. Much like the front office, apparently, I begrudgingly can no longer consider him untradeable. BUT, for us to trade him, it HAS to be for a truly good player, an unprotected first round pick in this year's draft, or something that I deem valuable enough to part with a seven-foot, freakishly athletic center. I'm willing to listen to scenarios. I was even on board with the JaVale McGee for Andrew Bogut, idea but there seem to be a lot of strings attached to that. Bogut has been afflicted by the injury bug, although some of those injuries could be seen as freakish. But I won't immediately dismiss some combination of McGee with Blatche and/or Lewis for Bogut and Crazy Stephen Jackson being offered. If none of that works out though, I still haven't totally ruled out us bringing him back for maybe $8-9M per year and hiring a legitimate big man coach. Gee, I just can't let go. At least I've lowered the max amount I'd offer him! FOURTEEN MILLION A YEAR !??!?!???? If he said that, JaVale will get the 'Go Directly to GTFOH' Chance card. Do not pass go, just GTFOH.

The guys on the program and marketing material

Trevor Booker
John Wall
Yeah, I'm as shocked as you are that Booker made it all the way up here, but he's here in my book (you see what I did there?). Did you know that since February, playing 30 minutes a game, he's averaging 11 points and eight rebounds, and is shooting 55% from the field? He's brought constant effort and energy, like a Tasmanian devil. He's obviously developed as a player, and if he can work on his jump shot over the summer he's gonna be a problem. As for Jimmy, well we already know he's untouchable.

These Questions Need Answers

2012-02-19T16:35:00.000-05:00

Going into the season, most Wizards fans had humble expectations. Just show us SOME improvement, and hopefully find answers to some pertinent long-term questions. I'd say that there were a few basic questions that one way or another everybody had, with a couple of subquestions thrown in there. As we inch closer to the All-Star break, many of the same questions that I had going into the season still need to be answered, and some new ones have arisen. I'm going to use the questions below as the starting point to several subsequent columns on these topics.

Will John Wall continue in developing what we thought were the seeds of stardom? To this point, I think we've seen that John Wall, although it started slowly, has the skillset and desire (and now motivation, thanks to Shaq and Barkley disrespecting him in the Rookie-Soph game) to develop into an all-start point guard.
Is Flip Saunders the right coach for this young team? Flip...yeah, let's keep going. Actually, as CRAZY as this sounds, we may have to ask if Randy Wittman is the right coach for this young team. I think the answer is no, but he's not as awful as I thought he would be. There seems to be some response in a new voice being at the helm.
Who are our core players? And within that:

Can we determine once and for all whether or not Andray Blatche is committed to being a fixture on the team, or if he's just the lazy, lethargic, layer upon layer of dormant muscle that we think he is (thanks Couples Retreat, and @jeaparris)? I ~~think~~ hope Andray has sealed his fate as a Wizard.
To keep or not to keep Nick Young? A fantastic question that I continue to go back and forth on. There will be a Nick Young column.
Can JaVale harness his enormous potential and develop into someone we should sign as our long-term answer at center? I made an attempt at answering this question in a column a few weeks ago. My stance on it hasn't really changed. He makes you feel like this a lot, but you can't teach some of the things that he does, I do believe that he tries, and he wants to and will continue to improve. That's the essence of the culture that we want, right?
Are any of our additional young players "keepers"?This is where a we need to start really looking at things. Going in, I think we felt like we had some nice high-energy guys to come off the bench and maybe fill specific roles. Jordan Crawford looked like he was best suited to come off the bench and be the Microwave reincarnate (I go back and forth on my current feelings on him on a nightly basis). But I didn't think we had any long-term starters in the mix here. Maybe Singleton? Many of us thought he was a steal at #18 and hoped he could develop into a decent 3 and D guy. Jan Vesely still isn't an NBA-caliber scorer, but he's shown an innate energy that is nice to see. Still don't know what his position is. I really like Shelvin Mack as a backup PG. Through all of that, the player that I will be paying SPECIFIC attention to for the rest of the season is TREVOR BOOKER. As a rookie, we thought he was a hard-working, undersized PF whose energy and hustle we fell in love with, because it had seemed so foreign to us. A great, off-the-bench big. This season, I clamored for Flip to start him, but simply as a punishment to Blatche and to give the message that the hardest working guys should be rewarded. But since Blatche went down with fat (I know that's not his injury, just go with it) and Trevor's been inserted into the starting lineup, he's making a major case for himself. In fact, I'm adding a question that needs to be answered.
Is Trevor Booker our PF of the future? There WILL be a column, I'm already ahead of you. The answer to this question may suddenly be one of the biggest of all, as it will go a long way in determining who we target in the upcoming draft.

Is Ernie Grunfeld the right GM for this team? This DEFINITELY deserves an entire column. I've been answering this with an emphatic NO for the last month or so, but maybe it's not as obvious as I thought earlier.

So there you have it. My thoughts and emotions on the Wizards are as up and down as they are on a game-to-game basis. That's what being a fan is all about, I guess.

Yourrrrrrrr Washington Wizards - February 4, 2012

2012-02-04T21:33:00.001-05:00

Man, we F#*^%* SUCK. The end.

The Future of the Wizards and the Curious Case of JaVale McGee

2012-01-30T20:06:00.001-05:00

What do you do with an enigmatic seven-footer with all the potential in the world and what sometimes seems like all the basketball sense of a pogo stick? He blows you away with his athleticism, his ability to block shots and send home an oop from anywhere, but in the same breath drives you nuts with his apparent obsession to make ESPN's Top Plays every night? His mom says he's "the future of the NBA". I just want to know if he's the future for the Wizards. He's a restricted free agent at the end of the season, and it has been rumored that he feels he is a near-max player. What do the Wizards do?

As frustrating as JaVale is, I say you keep him. He's 24, and despite the antics, he does seem to have improved quite a bit this season. He's developed a few moves, and while they often look like luck when they go in, it's obvious that he has worked to hone his craft. We know from the article with his mom that he hired a coach to assist him this offseason, so I believe that he wants to and is willing to improve. Plus, if you have a homegrown talent, particularly a center that has shown loads of promise, I think you have to look to keep him around (I know the inevitable "Well how did that logic work for you with Blatche?" question comes to mind here. Shut up.).

I probably don't have to tell you this, but this isn't a terribly talented roster. Other than John Wall (and possibly Vesely or Singleton at SF), McGee is the only potential long-term starter that I see on the current roster. Wall is in his second season, and you've seen his frustration on the court at times. While this isn't an immediate thought, I think if you don't start building before long, we're going to run out of time with Jimmy. Why dump a center that you've watched groom? Who's on the market that can fill JaVale's place if you let him walk? Do you draft a center, and then ask John to wait for another year or two for a guy to develop at center, when you could resign McGee and use the high draft pick on another position of dire need? I feel like McGee needs to be groomed and looked upon as a core piece. While I like some of the others, I think they are very clearly expendable, to me. Direct your drafts, free agent and trade targets around what these two need around them to be successful (low-post scoring, rebounding, SHOOTERS).

What do you pay him? My favorite site, Bullets Forever, created a poll gauging whether or not the fans want the Wizards to keep McGee. Of the over 800 votes, 90% sided with keeping McGee. However, 61% said at less than $10 million. Listen, I'm a realist. Unless he gets frustrated with the market this offseason and signs our qualifying offer, JaVale ain't coming back for anything less than $10 million. DeAndre Jordan, a restricted free agent coming into this season who doesn't have the potential of JaVale, signed an offer sheet with the Warriors for over $40 million for four years. This offer was matched by the Clippers. Kwame Brown, who us local fans LOVE to hate, signed a one-year contract with Golden State for SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS! The going rate for an average starting center in today's NBA is over $10 million, folks. If we want to keep him, we're going to have to pay him. Besides, as I've mentioned in the past, as poor a job as you can easily say that Ernie Grunfeld has done as GM, he has, if nothing else, arranged the books this time around so that there is the flexibility to build a contender either through trade, free agency, the draft, or some combination of the three. Per the NBA Salaries section of HoopsHype.com, below is a chart of the Wizards' five-year salary cap situation (including figures for this season, I assure you, Shelvin Mack is not playing here free of charge. I'll have to get more info about the value of his deal.).

The Wizards are potentially going to have a LOT of cap room this offseason. If Rashard Lewis is bought out of his contract (only $10M of the $24M is guaranteed) and Blatche is amnestied, that would leave only $16M (I threw in $800k for Mack as a rough guess) on the books for next season. With the new CBA, teams have to spend at least 85% of the salary cap next season. Using this season's $58M cap as a guide, the salary floor would be $49.3M. At some point, you HAVE to spend somewhere, right? Why not give McGee somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-12 million for four years? And if we're skeptical, why not do something where the third year is a team option, so if they're fed up after two seasons they can drop him?

By the same token, per the poll above, I wouldn't say spend whatever it takes to keep JaVale either. A max contract for a player with less than six years in the league (McGee will be going into his fifth season next year) is either $9 million or 1/4 of the salary cap (using last year's cap would make this figure $14,511,000), whichever is greater. Somewhere the line has to be drawn - although I'm not quite sure where - but when we hear that he is looking for a near-max contract, and that the team is willing to match all offers, that number isn't as crazy as it sounds.

The most immediate question regarding the future of the Wizards should be who will be buying the groceries for the next phase of the process. Given that he created this situation where we effectively have to blow the roster up again, does Grunfeld deserve another shot to create this team? Does he get a pass for his decisions to go for home runs instead of singles and doubles so often in the draft? Should a GM be brought in that utilizes advanced metrics (Moneyball) - for what it's worth, if I'm Ted, I ask Kevin Pritchard what his prize is and add a million - the way that Daryl Morey does in Houston? Either way, once Ted answers this question, the next one should be what to do with JaVale McGee.

Yourrrrrrrr Washington Wizards - January 28, 2012

2012-01-28T22:31:00.002-05:00

So a lot has happened over the last few days. A strange victory over Oklahoma City. JaVale's mama airs her greivances. Flip gets fired. Randy Wittman moves into the head spot as interim coach. Vesely starts! Two wins versus the Bobcats. A road victory! Let's get it!

Flip got flipped. It was just a matter of time. By the looks of the rotations since Randy Wittman has been coaching, the idea that Ernie Grunfeld was directing Flip on how to assign minutes was just untrue. We've been through this over and over so I'll just say that I wish Flip the best in all of his future endeavors.

John Wall is ballin. It took a while, but he's been playing much better over the last couple of weeks. Since the Martin Luther King Day game, the Franchise has been averaging 17.7 points (45% from the field), 6.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists (he could have way more with scorers and shooters). He seems to have slowed down a bit, and he is beginning to show the promise that got us so excited last season. Unstoppable in the open court, and he just has the ability to fly around at a level above everyone else on the floor, as evidenced by this sequence against Houston. He's still not much of a jump shooter (understatement, although he did hit a three tonight), but if he ever gets some help he's definitely going to average 10 assists a night. Faith has been restored.

The enigma that is JaVale McGee. As if we weren't conflicted enough about Monsieur Pierre, his amazing athleticism crossed with equally amazing boneheadedness, this Mike Wise article starring Pam McGee even further clouded things. Is the guy just another talented headache that we need to get rid of? Is his inner circle (namely Pam) gassing him up so much that he really believes he's "the future of the NBA"? Why HAVEN'T we gotten this guy a big man coach? Everything about him pulls you both ways. He looks disinterested for most of the Houston game but then puts in a gem against Charlotte. There was rumor from Chad Ford earlier in the week that he considered himself a near-max player. That may very well be true, but I've given you my opinion about the national media and all of the bad media associated with the Wizards, so I take some of this with a grain of salt. I do think that he sees what DeAndre Jordan was given (4 years, $42M) before this season began and sees a precedent set. As much as he drives us crazy, he's clearly improving, and I think we just have to retain him. He's a restricted free agent this summer, and although there wasn't a long-term agreement made before last week's deadline, the Wizards still plan on matching offers for him, according to Michael Lee.

Randy's rotations. The first thing I noticed in Randy Wittman's first game as coach was that he got Vesely and Mack in the game early (That's actually the second thing I noticed. The first thing I noticed was that Randy needs a dentist.). These guys had been offering good energy and positive plays all season when they were on the floor, but Flip seemed intent on not utilizing them. This has not been the case through three games under Wittman. In game two, Wittman started Vesely in place of Blatche, and the energy on the court is just immensely different. Where Jan lacks in offensive polish he makes up for it in heady play, hustle, and athleticism. He remained in the starting lineup tonight against Charlotte, and again, the energy. When Flip was fired, I'll admit that I wanted Sam Cassel to be named interim head coach, but I will give credit where credit is due: I like what Randy has the guys doing out there. He's allowing the team to play to its strengths, and not trying to fit square pegs into round holes. We all know that we don't have many scorers, but by getting energetic lineups on the court and using our athleticism, they're able to employ a fast-paced style of play that suits most of the roster. It would be great if Wittman would make the decision to start McGee, Booker, Vesely, Young, and Wall.

Amar'e to the Wizards?

2012-01-27T20:04:00.002-05:00

Moke Hamilton of SheridanHoops.com recently posted a column suggesting five trade proposals for Amar'e Stoudemire, one of which landed him in Washington.

If you would, indulge with me in the hyperbole that is this scenario. The trade would make us instantly credible, give us a star to pair with Wall, and would turn the 'rebuilding' process into a 'what do we need to be a major contender' process. Not sure how Amar'e and McGee would work defensively, but I could imagine not worse than things are with Blatche. While I'd love to get rid of Blatche and Young and end up getting an All-star in Amar'e, I'm a bit conflicted on this trade that will never happen. Maybe it's worth the risk, but I'm not a huge fan of the idea of the Wizards taking on the risk of Amar'e's uninsured contract, with his bad knees and all. And Marvin Williams is Atlanta's Andray Blatche.

In the short-term, the trade would be a disaster for Atlanta, but for a team in NBA purgatory that has a couple of bad contracts and is in no way a title contender, this gets them out of the woods. Even though he's a good player, that Joe Johnson contract is well on its way to becoming the worst in the league. This would offer them the chance to get rid of that cap-crippling deal, and a prospect in the hometown Shumpert. Not sure what Cleveland gets out of the trade. The Knicks would have a void at power forward with these swaps, but would get an upgrade at two other positions.

Would this be worth the risk for the Wizards? As much as I try to sound all rational and sensible about the pros and cons, if this trade were to actually occur, I would most likely be through the roof at our overnight return to relevance.

Yourrrrrrrr Washington Wizards - January 18, 2012

2012-01-18T00:00:00.001-05:00

Man...we SUCK! It's frustrating when all I have to write about is losing. Even I, a person that always tries to find the positive in things, am losing hope and interest. Oh yeah, we did win a game this week, so to that I say...who the F#^! cares, we're 1-12! If I'm a bit ornery in this post, can you blame me? Anyway, my thoughts below the jump...
The meeeeeeeeedia. I hate y'all. Not all of you, just the ones that don't even watch Wizards games. That's mostly the national ones, but some of the local ones are also included. You sit on your high horses and once a week look at the standings and write down or say whatever jokes you can think of from your failed stand-up comedian days. It's like if you have a stupid relative or friend and somebody else talks bad about them: I can say whatever I want about Mondo, that doesn't give you the right to say whatever you want about him. A lot of the opinions I'm reading/hearing are clearly ignorant. I don't even want to get into naming names and giving them the extra pub, but Adam McGinnis and I know who they are. I hate being the laughingstock of the entire league but the actions and decision-making of our players and front office have made it so. Still, I don't take kindly to some of these so-called experts.

The future? Well, I'm not even sure anymore. At the end of the season, I expect Rashard Lewis to be bought out, and Andray Blatche to be amnestied, if he isn't traded first. For anybody thinking that we should have amnestied Lewis before the season, look, there was a salary cap floor that we had to reach, and I don't know that it would've been a good idea to just go willy nilly overpaying players that weren't worthy just for the sake of spending money and short-term gain. That's how you end up like the Atlanta Hawks. I'm good with us keeping the Rashard Lewis contract (and that's where his value is at this point, his contract, not his physical presence), I just don't think he should be playing much, if at all. I feel like there's a slim chance that his contract could actually be an asset come trade time. If we can't trade him, he can easily be bought out at the end of the season. Only $10 million or so of his salary for next season is guaranteed, which is another reason why the contract may have value on the trade market.

If he can't be traded, the amnesty clause would best be served on Andray Blatche. After this season, he is owed another three years, $23 million. We don't want to pay that, and given that he's hurt, not starting (which by the way is the right decision by Flip. Does he read this blog? I'm not sure, but he sure made me feel like I knew what I was talking about when he benched Lewis and Blatche. It was so obvious.), and out of shape, I don't know if any other team will either. I think Blatche could be a great sixth man, just don't know if it's realistic to expect him to be cool with coming off the bench here. One way or another, it's probably best for all parties that we go in different directions.

If you've been reading me, you know I've touted all year how much JaVale McGee has improved his game, and I stand by that. But is he sucked up in this bad culture of losing as well. He still does boneheaded things, and I still find myself trying to look past them. The now infamous self-oop (which, by the way, came after he pretty much got teabagged earlier in the game by Chandler Parsons.) yesterday is the latest in a string of bad decisions. While I acknowledged that it was yet another stupid thing given that we were losing the game and we are 1-12, when I saw it I kinda brushed it off. But am I enabling the behavior by looking past it? The thing that really irritates me is his shameless attempts to get voted to the All-Star game (have you seen his avi on Twitter?). Maybe I'm getting old, but should that be the priority? I don't expect guys to sit in the dark and cry because we're awful, but I think this is the opposite extreme. It gives the impression that he doesn't care about where the team sits right now. It gives the impression that he is...selfish. It got me to thinking: is JaVale really a core piece? Is he worth the $10-12 million per year that he's certain to ask for at the end of the season? Should we...gulp...explore trading him? I mean this is allegedly a deep draft, right? Don't you think he could at least bring back an extra draft pick or two, maybe even a lottery pick? It's just time to start considering everything, including the fact that John Wall may be the only guy on the current roster that will be here when we're no longer the new Clippers. I love the energy of Chris Singleton, Trevor Booker, Jan Vesely, and Shelvin Mack, but I'm not sure if any of them are starters on a quality team. Good bench guys though.

With all this talk of buyouts and amnesties and trades, I guess I should come up with some idea on how to put the team together again. Above all else, I guess the biggest decision when the season ends, or before then, is to figure out what to do with Ernie Grunfeld and Flip Saunders. I think they should probably both be gone, but I get the feeling that Ted Leonsis doesn't agree. I think we're about to go through another rebuild, but I'm optimistic that there are things in place that may allow us to be competitive in a year or two. It starts with this year's draft, where we have to pick up a star player, or at the very least a core complement to Wall. This is supposed to be a very good draft, and if things stay the way that they've been we should have a very good pick. As frustrated as I am with McGee, I think he'll be back next season, at the very least at the qualifying offer if a long-term deal can't be reached. Do you know that if Lewis is bought out and Blatche is amnestied, we'll have only $23 million on the cap? I say that to show that as bad as we are the salary cap situation is fluid. If a quality free agent comes available, and he wants to play here, we will be in good position to make a move. This year's free agency class doesn't have many realistic free agents that are unrestricted (not even entertaining Dwight Howard coming here). Jeff Green has been mentioned a bit the last couple of days, but I'm not sure that he's going to be worth a major payday or a good fit for us. There are some restricted free agents that are intriguing, namely Eric Gordon. If not this offseason, next offseason Kevin Martin will be an unrestricted free agent. Just a couple of names to throw out there at shooting guard. I'm throwing out names at swing positions, particularly shooting guard, because it seems pretty obvious that Nick Young won't be back at this point. He appears to be playing out the string, and losing money along the way.

2011-12 NBA Playoff Power Rankings: Western Conference - v1

2012-01-17T21:12:00.002-05:00

OK, I've put this off long enough. Let's get to it. With a couple of exceptions, the West is basically split into two factions (Uh, no not THOSE two factions): One group consists of teams with old legs, hoping that they can stick it out through this condensed grind of a regular season and get into the playoffs, where experience has historically offered a huge advantage. The other group consists of young teams that go 8-10 deep. Coaching may be more important than ever this season, as some teams with great talent may lose due to poor decision-making. Anyway, click below for my thoughts on the Western Conference to this point.

8. Memphis Grizzlies. With respect to Utah and their surprising start, I just don't see it. The Griz have lost Zach Randolph until March, but, for now, I have faith that Memphis can hang on until then and slide into the 8 seed. It's going to be tough though. This is a BIG loss, because they don't have many scorers as it is, and this team took off last year when the offense started running through Z-Bo. Rudy Gay being back is obviously significant, as he can fill it up, but aside from him, points are gonna be hard to come by. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo reported last Thursday night that they were in talks to send OJ Mayo to New Jersey (for who, Kerry Kittles?), but unless they get a scorer in return, they could be losing even more buckets. But I like their energy, they play good defense, and what they lack in scoring they make up for in energy, smart ballplayers and Tony Allen, who apparently is like the Gooch on Diff'rent Strokes.

7. San Antonio Spurs. The first of the cougar teams. This team is old and was losing ground as a contender BEFORE Manu Ginobili broke his hand. Tim Duncan is well into his twilight, but Tony Parker is still a top point guard (although his shooting is down this season), Gregg Popovich is still great, and I like Dejuan Blair (it still bothers me that the Wizards didn't draft him in 2009), Gary Neal, and Kawhi Leonard. They have a nice mix of youth and vets. But while their efficient play, solid defense, and Manu's return will always keep them around, I feel like their ship may have sailed as a true contender.

6. Denver Nuggets. Denver has some nice pieces. I'm a big fan of several of their players, namely Aaron Afflalo, for whom I spent the whole summer wishing the Wizards would sign. They've had some nice early season surprises: Danilo Gallinari is having a great start to the season, and what the hell has gotten into Al Harrington? And, is it me, or were the defections of Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith an "addition by subtraction" thing? Plus, the Nuggets are very efficient, tops in assists, second in points scored. As well coached as they are and despite the nice start, they are 24th in points allowed, and George Karl has had it up to here with it (I'm 5'6, so 'up to here' isn't that high up...just imagine I was Gheorge Muresan holding my arm all the way up.)! They're capable of a first round upset, they've got youth and depth, which both pose a big advantage this season, but I just don't see it at the moment. Make me a believer, Denver.

5. L.A. Clippers. Lob city! I know everybody is on the bandwagon and ready to call the Clippers the new kings of L.A. now that CP3 is in town. I'm just not ready to give that up quite yet. I need to be convinced that they're ready for the big time. I know they beat the Lakers last week and have the best PG in the league, but they're roster doesn't seem balanced to me. With Chauncey, Mo Williams, Bledsoe, and Foye, how many combo guards can one team have? They're a team to watch out for obviously, but I'm concerned with the lack of depth at the swing positions. Is it really a good idea to be playing Caron Butler 36 minutes a night? Get back with me when they trade for a real shooting guard. Oh, and when Vinny del Negro isn't the coach.

4. Portland Trailblazers. I like Portland. They're young, deep, and have a very balanced roster. They have a star (LaMarcus Aldridge), shooters (Matthews and Batum), bench scoring (Crawford), invaluable glue guys (Camby, Wallace, Thomas), and the enigma that is Greg Oden. They play solid defense, they are well-coached, and the chemistry appears to be good with this group. I really liked the Blazers going into last season's playoffs, think they are even better this season, and consider them a team that CAN make a serious run at the West. I'm still a bit leery though.

3. Dallas Mavericks. It's been a sluggish start for the champs, particularly Dirk. Maybe this veteran team may be putting the regular season on cruise control and pacing themselves for the playoffs. I thought the loss of Tyson Chandler would be a MAJOR loss, but Rick Carlisle is a great defensive coach so the loss seems to have been mitigated so far. The issue has been scoring, but that will obviously go up. Heartbroken Lamar Odom will find a role on this team and even though they loss Barea to the land of a thousand point guards (Minnesota), Delonte West has been an apt replacement. The Mavs still have Dirk and what seems like 10 former all-stars on the team, I imagine that they'll be fine.

2. L.A. Lakers. I'm probably overvaluing this team. Still, I'm a sucker for the Lake Show. Let's start with some of the negatives. They were just swept by Dallas in the playoffs. They are OLD and SLOOOOOOOOOOOW. If not the worst, Derek Fisher and Steve Blake make at least the second worst point guard tandem of the playoff teams. They got screwed in the CP3 situation, and as a result panicked and traded a distraught Lamar Odom to Dallas. Mike Brown comes in as a new coach in a must-win environment. Kobe's wife filed for divorce. That's a LOT of reasons to count the Lakers out. So why do I still have them so high? If nothing else, the fact that Kobe Bryant appears to be out for blood this season. I think he's pissed about the CP3 situation, he's heard or believes that people are saying that he's getting old and is past his prime, and he's got a bad taste over how last season ended. Oh, and his wife filed for divorce. For an all-time player that seems to use turmoil and doubt as fuel, he's got a lot of angst to take out on the rest of the league. He's going for MVP this season, and a broken wrist, broken hand, broken wallet won't stop him. On top of that, the Lakers actually had some solid pickups. Where the bench was an obvious weakness last year, adding Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy to go with Metta. World. Peace. and Matt Barnes could make for a skilled, dependable bench. Jason Kapono is nothing if not a quality shooter. That tends to come in handy in the playoffs. I think Mike Brown gets a bad rep from his dealings with LeBron James, and while I don't think he's a great coach, he will bring improved defense and stay out of Kobe's way. Andrew Bynum, as mercurial as he is, is one of the top 3 centers in the league when he is healthy. He offers an offensive skillset that is rare these days. If he can keep himself harnessed, this team could easily be back in the Finals.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder. As a Wizards fan, all I ever hear about in our 17-year rebuilding plan is that we need to or are following the "OKC model". I think that's crap. Not to belittle the job that Sam Presti has done, because I think he has done masterfully, but let's be honest, how much of this wonderful job is directly correlated to the drafting of Kevin Durant? Isn't he really what stirs the drink? You can make all the shrewd financial and draft decisions that you want, unless you're the 2004 Pistons, you're not a contender without a supserstar. Point blank, period. And how about Portland? Twice with the top pick they followed the "big over small" argument, and maybe even a few years ago they thought there may be duplication in drafting that 23 guy, but wow, twice? Twice with the top pick you left the transcendent player on the board to pick big men with bum wheels? Yikes. I mean yikes. I know the Wizards drafted Kwame Brown, but it's not like we left a Hall of Famer on the board (there were some good players though: Chandler, Gasol, Joe Johnson, Z-Bo, Arenas..yea Arenas..Eff you and whatever sarcastic thing you're thinking!). Somehow I got off topic here, what were we talking about? Oh yes, the Thunder. I'm slotting them as the top seed in the West, and they'll coast through the regular season because they have a top 3 overall player a top 5 point guard (right?), and an amazing sixth man. I can't wait to see if they live up to the promise in the playoffs. Seems like they have the pieces in place. The Maynor injury was a tough loss, but I think they'll be fine to overcome that, especially if they play the Lakers in the WCF. They have everything you would think it takes to win a title. The real question about the Thunder: is this Westbrook-Durant power struggle a real thing, or just something that Bill Simmons and Jason Whitlock cooked up?

The 'OKC Model'

2012-01-16T22:19:00.002-05:00

Let's be clear: The 'OKC model' is actually the "have the #2 pick in draft & #1 team doesn't pick transcendent player" model, or as I like to call it, the "team after Portland's pick" model. Any model involving drafting Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant has a good shot of being a successful model. Nice work, Portland. OK, to be fair, Portland had the #2 pick in the 1984 NBA Draft, as Houston took Olajuwon with the top pick. Twitter

I'm updating this because I don't want to take anything away from the fantastic work that Sam Presti has done in Oklahoma. He had to make the right picks, and he certainly has done so. My whole argument though is that OKC was terrible at the perfect time, and manipulated it perfectly. In 2007, they drafted Durant with the #2 pick. In 2008, they grabbed Russell Westbrook with the #4 and Ibaka with the #24, and in 2009 they took James Harden with the #5 pick. Again, Presti hit home runs with all of these guys, but let's not act like having top 5 picks THREE YEARS IN A ROW didn't greatly jump start things.

Yourrrrrrrr Washington Wizards - January 6, 2012

2012-01-06T23:47:00.002-05:00

Happy New Year! When I last wrote, our favorite band of misfits had yet to win a game in the NBA season. Where are we a week later????? Oh.

We did get a couple of games where there was effort. Still, two complete no-shows, two competitive losses, and one players-only meeting later, the Wizards stand at 0-7. But like JaVale said earlier this week, "U lookin at the glass 99% empty! What about it being 1% full!" My observations to this point:

Seven feet of excuses. I didn't really get out my frustrations with Andray Blatche and his Twitter rant last week. He complained that he's not getting the ball in the post enough. That irked me for a number of reasons, but the biggest is that the tweet seems to continue a trend of cop outs and excuses. Why can't he adjust positioning so that he is in the post more when he's ready to receive the ball? If he gets the ball out of the paint, why can't he just back his way down there? Isn't he pretty much a face-up player? What about rebounding? What about defense? What about conditioning? What frustrates everyone so much about Blatche is that you can see that he has talent, but you can't help but think that he'll never mentally be there. Maybe that's just in this organization, where losing and dysfunction happens.

Rashard Lewis. If this wasn't clear last week, I don't understand why Rashard Lewis is getting minutes. He's done, man. I mean done. I'm running out of ways to play devil's advocate in rationalizing why he starts. I'm not going to even dignify the contract rationale, although that could very well be the reason. Veteran leadership. C'mon. If he was displaying so much leadership, why did Mo Evans have to call the players-only meeting? Frontcourt perimeter scoring. If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: this ain't Rashard Lewis from the 2009 Playoffs. This is the post-suspension Rashard Lewis. I'm not accusing him of taking something. That's not my place, and I'm in no position to speak on it. What I can say is that ever since that suspension to start the 2009-10 season, the guy has been a shell of what he was. Is that a coincidence? I no longer see evidence of a consistent jumper. He's not a great defender. He's tall, but I don't see a lot of rebounding. I just see a guy keeping a younger, more energetic player(s) on the bench. We've come out lethargic in almost every game so far. and while I'm not blaming that on him, if things need to be shaken up, he needs to be the first guy that needs to be removed from the starting lineup.

Chris Singleton. CHRIS SINGLETON SHOULD BE STARTING! He just provides a spark out there. He has a lot of confidence and obviously has the confidence of the coaching staff, as he's been left on an island against Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony in the last week. Yeah he's been torched a bit, but he's learning. I don't know that he's the long-term answer at SF, but I like him. He brings energy. And, in a stat that stunned me, he's brought much better long-range shooting than Lewis. I know that seven games is a very small sample size, but Singleton is 7-13 from beyond the arc, while Lewis is 4-18. Again, why are we starting Rashard? The bigger question is why are we NOT starting Chris?

The Franchise. I had some extreme thoughts about our franchise player the other day, but I'm going to hang on to these thoughts for a while. I don't know if I'm being irrational or not yet.

The Javalevator. Hey! I see improvement! He doesn't seem like a chicken with his head cut off out there. All we can ask for is that he is trying to get better. I haven't seen any coast-to-coast dribbling exhibitions, and while it's still tough to watch, he has developed a couple of post moves. He's coming on and really starting to show some signs that he can be a part of the NBA's 'Really light-skinned, skinny, athletic, and very active centers" club (See Joakim Noah, Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby. They're like a really tall Debarge).

The Brass. Same as last week. I think Flip needs to go. And even though I don't think he's been the worst GM ever, really starting to feel like Ernie should go too. My feeling on this isn't as strong as it is for Flip, but there are just too many 'projects' on this team. Stay tuned on this.

The Rest. Nick started hot, but has been chilly lately. Seems like a funk, though. I'm not going to kill him for it. Jordan Crawford is already elite at something: shooting too much. Oh, and taking minutes from Shelvin Mack. Booker T doesn't strike me as ever being a long-term starter, but there should at least be a threat to Blatche there. You see signs on occasion, but I don't think Seraphin is or ever will be very good. Ready to see what Jan Vesely can do!

Yourrrrrrrr Washington Wizards - December 31, 2011

2011-12-31T12:36:00.002-05:00

These have been the summations of each Wizards game so far, in succinct question format:

Game 1: So when we have bad games, we go to Twitter and basically throw our entire organization under the bus instead of finding fault in our own performances now?

Game 2: How in the *%#$ is Atlanta's whole starting lineup +22 or better and our whole starting lineup is -16 or worse?

Game 3: Did they really just sub in Roger Mason and he's not on the active roster?

Such is the life of a Wizards fan. This thing is a train wreck and every year I do the same thing: build up some form of faux-excitement about player improvement, thinking things like, "There's no way this guy can be this dumb FOUR years in a row, right?", or "If we trade these seven guys, we might actually have something going here!", or worse, "Big deal, the guy likes 14th Street hookers, that doesn't make him a knucklehead". I was legitimately excited about the thought that we may win 25 games this season! Beside the fact that through three games that already seems laughable, let's look at the fact that I was EXCITED about the Wizards potentially winning 25 of 66 games. I'm pretty sure I have the symptoms of Battered Fan Syndrome (I think I'll write an entry about the signs. Be on the lookout, Skins fans.). Anyway, I'm convinced that we need to make some serious adjustments. Below are a few early thoughts and observations.

* Fire Flip Saunders! My friends Donte' and Joe (check out Guido's Gripes! Yes that WAS a shameless plug! No I don't think this an overuse of exclamation points!!!) have been saying this for a while, and I've been non-committal. I know Flip was brought in to coach a veteran team, but a gun here and a gun there changed the dynamic. I didn't think though that he's been to blame for all of this. But he shouldn't be absolved either. I mean his player rotations are awful, and while he has definitely helped the careers of Nick Young and JaVale McGee, how much of that development would have naturally occurred anyway? I think the best thing for everybody is to put Flip, the players, the fans, everybody out of their misery and move in another direction. And who do you put in as a replacement? Funny you should ask...

* Hire Sam Cassell on an interim basis. With the chance to remove the interim tag. Look, I am not an Xs and Os guy. My opinions are based upon watching basketball my whole life, gathering observations and memories along the way. I don't know for certain that Sam Cassell is a good coach, but I have a feeling about him. I don't care that he looks like a martian. Hell, maybe that works to his advantage. He was practically a player/coach his last few seasons in the league. He always struck me as a very smart player that knew where everyone needed to be and generally made the right decision. And he was one of those guys that didn't clam up in crunch time. In fact, he even stole a celebration made SPECIFICALLY to highlight this skill set. What's the worst that could happen? He gets a bigger voice in what's going on, maybe instills some heart in these guys, which is sorely lacking, and we see some hard-nosed play on the court. Or we continue to spiral toward the top pick in the 2012 draft, which A.) we're headed towards anyway and B.) maybe isn't a bad thing. Can't lose by moving E.T. up. See what you've got with him.

* Trade Blatche. Listen Dray, we've been through a lot. All the arguments. Hookers. Fights at nightclubs. I hate you. You hate me. I think you could be great. You want to spend your entire career here. Who are we fooling? We're not going anywhere together. The stress in this relationship is just too much. You know what? It's not you. It's me. Let's keep in touch though.

* Bench Rashard Lewis. PLEEASE!!!! What does everyone see in this guy? He has the worst contract in the NBA, so you can't amnesty him when his awful contract is this close to being a valuable trade asset. But why do we have to start him? Don't give me the money thing. Did they start Gil before he was traded last year? I could be wrong, but I don't think so. Maybe it's a coincidence, but this guy hasn't been the same since he got suspended for allegedly doping. I don't see how he's earned a place in the starting lineup. Veteran schmeteran, we need to see results. And you want veteran presence on the court? Put Turiaf in the starting lineup.

* Start Turiaf and Singleton until you get something better. If we're gonna stink, can we at least stink and be good defensively? I like the way these two play, and I think Turiaf can help McGee's awareness. Maybe his energy rubs off on JaVale and good things can happen. The lineup of Wall, Young, Singleton, Turiaf, and McGee intrigues me.
I'm tired of writing about these guys for now. Don't worry, I'll have plenty more to complain about.