Alpha Chart

Alpha Chart...Right Time for A Serious Thought About What's Next...?

2012-02-11T21:27:00.001+08:00

It has been about slightly more than 2 years now since Alpha Chart started; I must admit that the blog was initiated with no clear objective but merely to exhibit actual trades with the hope to build credential that the author's performance and market view is worth readers' time.

Really the blog has been very brief in contents, with not much in-depth expression of what supported my market action as well as crucial market news, economic data and corporate development that influence my view. For regular readers, you'd have noticed how I could change my view within months and sometimes within days. This happens for only 2 simple reasons...1.) Market dynamism is to be respected...Always! 2.) For risk management purposes...I believe you won't find my tagline "Think Risk Then Profit" something new now.

Nevertheless, to maintain Alpha Chart the way it has been may not bring much value to both the readers and author going forward, in my opinion. Given that my portfolios have made some significant progress as far as performance is concerned (will share more on this...), I find it's time I put a serious thought about what's next for the blog? Alpha Chart needs a "soul"...

Alpha Chart...Something Very Worthwhile To Add To My "Penny" View

2012-02-08T19:16:00.002+08:00

Personally I always find chinese-reading investors/traders have an upper hand in getting good investment information and discussion topics as far as press coverage of business and investment news is concerned.

Business news, corporate updates, translated research papers are widely published and covered in presses like SinChew, Oriental Daily and NanYang to name a few key sources. Since I started investing, they have remained an important stream of market info and research for me.

This is one such article expressing the current trend of stirred up actions among penny stocks featured recently on Sin Chew website.

The above talked about the need of controlled speculative activities for a more robust market, and that regulator won't be too stern in exerting their forces unless it becomes really excessive...

This is a very insightful point that my regular readers would have seen me bringing this up earlier...the recommendation by many experts in high dividend yield stocks and blue chips don't always pay off in view of limited upside at elevated prices.

Finally, a comment on avoiding penny stocks at the expense of returns (Alpha: provided the timing being right)...

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/56074?tid=17

The reporter, Lee deserves kudos for such insightful article. The local market needs more of these to help investors make better decisions; experts remain experts unless they are able to produce real results...

Nonetheless, there is always risk no matter what stock types we choose to trade/invest in; we just need to know what we are getting into...and must manage the risk all the time.

Alpha Chart...Now, They Talk About Penny...

2012-02-04T06:19:00.002+08:00

Penny stocks had been regularly featured by Alpha Chart for sometime already; with recent robust activities among many of them, no wonder more and more people are talking about it now...

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/dhfh/Article/index_html

More to come...?

Reflexivity...Going All Out?

2012-02-03T06:07:00.001+08:00

At ~67% equity now, I see opportunity for this portfolio to deploy fully the balance of funds into stocks for trading purposes...just a matter of which stocks and when.

On current stock holdings, there isn't much to do now except holding onto them...not even for those lagging behind.

FBM KLCI...Next Key Level

2012-02-01T13:08:00.000+08:00

On index, I'll be watching 1,530 as the next important level for the market to break...for more bullish trades ahead.

SMRTech...An Entry To Club 25 (27% In 7 Days)

2012-01-30T07:59:00.000+08:00

Last Friday saw the clearance of balance SMRTech shares from the portfolio with a 27% return (B 0.185; S 0.235); this trade made it to "Club 25" of Alpha Chart.

An overview of my trades in SMRTech...

Really, SMRTech remains a stock to watch still...

Reflexivity...Exited SMRTech And Bought Into...

2012-01-29T07:43:00.000+08:00

As mentioned, I exited SMRTech by selling the balance 50,000 shares on Friday; at the same time, I bought into MEGB which I had an encounter early last year...

I find at this level, MEGB is worth a wait although its fundamentals had dimmed a lil' due to the revised tuition fees as a direct impact from the adjustment to the study loan amounts granted by government; it should remain a profitable stable.

SMRTech...The Lil' Atom (21.6% Return in 6 Days)

2012-01-28T07:08:00.002+08:00

SMRTech is indeed an "Atom" material, making a good trade for the portfolio with a gross return of 21.6% (B 0.185; S 0.225) in my second attemp...

In fact, I continued to sell into strength of the balance yesterday too...to blog up soon on these trades in sum.

Golden Nest...Back To GMutual

2012-01-27T07:42:00.001+08:00

Bought back GMutual, a stock that didn't deliver in my earlier attempt.

For reasons why I bought into it previously (still the same reasons for this attempt)...

Reflexivity...Buy One; Sell The Other

2012-01-26T21:06:00.001+08:00

Bought more Keladi and sold SMRTech partially.

Left a balance of 50,000 shares of SMRTech in the running...

Reflexivity...Still Buy

2012-01-26T08:33:00.000+08:00

The buying spree continues...added to Keladi, PMCap and Hapseng-WA.

Equity exposure stands at 68.5% now...Meanwhile, I'm shifting funds placed as fixed deposit earlier, kept for higher yield and risk aversion purposes, back to the trust account; the deposit plus interest earned amounting to RM51,381.80.

League Table (Since Inception)...Still1-2 for Alpha Chart

2012-01-25T08:00:00.001+08:00

Alpha Chart maintained a 1-2 position in the league table with a more obvious outperformance as compared to the rest of the funds/indexes, based on the performance since the inception of the League Table.

Reflexivity retained the top position with a 78.7% return while Golden Nest in the second spot with a 68.1% return since 1 November 2009 i.e. in 2 years and 2 months time.

The next closest fund came in third with a return of 42.3% for the same period; 36.4% below Reflexivity.

My outlook for the two portfolios in 2012 may turn positive...there could be a further pull away from the rest in the League Table.

Golden Nest...It's My Turn...

2012-01-22T06:10:00.002+08:00

Golden Nest has stayed low for a while and obviously, there were much less transactions as compared to Reflexivity due to the different investment approach, focusing on longer term outlook.

Of course, as and when I found something interesting, I'd increase exposure...and this time, it's Muar Ban Lee. MBL is involved in the manufacturing of oil seed expeller and automated kernel crushing plant and related parts for planters.

Its earnings improvement can be traced from the latest 3 quarters result...

Source: Bursa Malaysia

Surely, its technicals have passed my test too...On this, equity exposure is now raised to 62.8%.

Reflexivity...Buying Continues...

2012-01-21T08:50:00.001+08:00

As mentioned, went ahead to buy more stocks...Bought back Hapseng-WA (S earlier at 0.485; B 0.475) and Keladi...Portfolio at 53.3% equity now.

Market's ability to reclaim 1,520 augurs very well for the bull. To update action from Golden Nest too...

Reflexivity...One for GE XIII

2012-01-20T07:37:00.002+08:00

As we draw closer to the long-awaited General Election, I find it's time to look into political-linked stocks. In this, I found TWSCorp with a good technical build-up; fundamentally? Nothing much to say...

Patience is needed in this trade or shall I say this market instead?!

On overall market, I start to see some life yet again...waiting for confirmation. As I have been pitching religiously that penny stocks are dirt cheap; I will increase exposure while waiting for the congruence (which starts to shape up) I have been "dying" for! More indications are pointing to some upside surprises for the market, maybe soon...

After the Lunar new year, I'll share some of my altered views (particularly on the possible bearish scenario of FBM KLCI going down to 800) of the market, taking cue from recent economic data and "forever" accommodative policymakers. If timing is right, I'll share some highly important posts that are worth readers' consideration on my plan to make the most of this market; and finally where and how I will go after some good money from main investment choices over the next few years...

Meanwhile, be ready for more portfolio actions from Alpha Chart before we "Enter the Dragon"...

Alpha Chart...Better Than The Best?

2012-01-19T07:30:00.000+08:00

Last year, it was Golden Nest that outperformed the best unit trust fund in the local market with a 47.3% annual return against the best fund's return of 32.7%.http://www.alphachart.blogspot.com/2011/02/league-tabletop-10-funds-in-malaysia.html

This year, it's Reflexivity that outpaced the best local fund with a return of 34.4% versus the best fund return of 19.1%.

A second consecutive year for Alpha Chart since the blog started...I'm looking at having both portfolios outperforming the best over the next few years.

EAH...After Bonus...

2012-01-18T06:36:00.003+08:00

Updating on the recent bonus issue... After the 1-for 2 bonus issue, the adjustment saw my holding increased from 35,000 shares to 52,500; average buy price dropped from 0.325 to 0.217.

Being stuck in a trading range for more than 3 months, the stock is continuing its sideway move with limited downside. My liking for selective ACE stocks will mean longer holding period as EAH remains the few with good fundamental, unless I see major risk to the market.

Reflexivity...Some Actions

2012-01-17T06:50:00.001+08:00

Apparently, the market enters a correction as expected with a 14 pts drop...Now that the 1,520 level is broken, market will focus on the next key support of 1,500.

As market continues to be filled with ambiguity; hopefully a new trend could start to emerge at the end of this correction.

Portfolio wise, I sold Hapseng-WA for a small gain (B 0.47; S 0.485) and bought back SMRTech in a lightning speed (S 0.175-0.19 earlier, B 0.185 now), an ACE stock I continue to watch, continue to like...

FBM KLCI...Will Penny Stop Partying?

2012-01-16T06:51:00.001+08:00

The past week trading witnessed more robust penny trades on Bursa Malaysia, led by Harvest after its upliftment of "Designated Securities" status.

This week will enter the second week of my envisaged 2-week penny rally. While selective Penny will likely party just a lil' more, I start to see some danger signs emerging...mainly the European sovereign downgrades and the next possible sell-off in Harvest. My plan is to look for opportunity to reduce equity holdings a bit (not aggressive selling) into the current market.

In any event, I find any effort to push up the current market will likely attract more sellers...cautious trading still. If asked, I say the market continues to disappoint! The market remains directionless for now...watch support at 1,520, then 1,500.

SMRTech...Just A Mini "Atom"

2012-01-12T23:13:00.000+08:00

Trading will be part of the core strategy for Reflexivity now and I will likely settle for small gains for some stock holdings, like this one, until clearer sign of market direction presents itself.

On this note, I cleared my position in SMRTech for a gross profit of RM3,500 or 10.9%. I must say SMRTech remains a stock to watch and I don't mind paying higher price when the next profit opportunity abounds.

While there are more action becoming noticeable particularly among penny stocks as I forecasted; I remind myself of the risk of a sudden correction...

Reflexivity...More SIME-CO

2012-01-11T07:33:00.000+08:00

Had more SIME-CO...At single digit premium, I find this trade to be worthwhile albeit a shorter time to maturity which falls on 30 Aug 2012.

The portfolio is at over 40% equity now...In fact, I'm watching another call-warrant with good potential; just waiting for the right time.

Golden Nest...A Penny Gem In...?

2012-01-10T08:22:00.000+08:00

Found a gem in a penny stock, PPHB. It's involved in packaging business that saw much improved earnings over the last few years...It's current year EPS for 3 quarters is at 6.63 sen; full year shall exceed 8 sen.

Technically, there should be more gains ahead but the road may be a longer one. Be patient to hold out...

Reflexivity...Making A Come Back

2012-01-09T21:52:00.000+08:00

As predicted in my tactical post, the market today exhibited cautious trade in the morning but made a steady climb back to close at its high.

I took the chance to buy into some stocks under watch, they were...

1. Hapseng-WA
- After the last disposal at 0.48, I get a steal to make a come back at a lower price of 0.47; this time I will likely go long"er"...

2. EAH
- I start to like adding "Ace"ing to the (Penny) cake and when I look around, EAH alongside SMRTech still catch my eyes.

3. Sime-CO
- After much hoo-hah, I believe investors will need to begin paying attention to its earnings instead of its fatal "affairs".

There is an action for Golden Nest too..

Alpha Chart...Can Penny Be More Active?

2012-01-08T18:32:00.004+08:00

In the beginning post of the year, my anticipation of a correction did come thru in an immediate peak-to-trough 29 points loss right into the first 2 days of 2012.

Though above 1,500, I had fear about the lack of participation in the broad market then. As we traded up to last Friday, we had some improvement in market breadth with more stocks registering better gains. So, where are we now as far as this market is concerned... Is it bull or bull trap? And what prompted me to call this a tactical post?

In answering this, let me first look into the broad market...

Indeed, FBM KLCI is still stuck in a bearish rising wedge where a breakdown below the trendline of 1,490 would put the overall market in a very dangerous position. At the same time, psychological support of 1,500 will make a strong defence and the first alarm too...

While we await the next move in FBM KLCI, I actually spotted a very welcomed catalyst from Bursa Malaysia last Friday with the upliftment of Harvest's designation status, though a delayed one, commencing next Monday. This could boost penny trades...And lastly, we have the hope in a typical pre-Chinese New Year rally and January effect which favours penny stocks primarily.

From these, I see a potential run starting early next week for the market and hope for more active market participation. Externally, there aren't any expectations of major negative shocks for the next two weeks too.

I'm ready for more swift action, only hope the market don't disappoint me again... Do note of some possible road blocks and their expected implications:-
1. The never-ending or will it end soon (?) sodomy trial of Anwar tomorrow [May see a lil' cautious trades in the morning but market should firm towards the close]
2. European leaders meeting in Monti on 20 Jan [KIV]
3. The current market could be a 2008 DeJavu technically speaking. [The watch out for a possible breakdown is crucial]

Meanwhile, a quick check on my portfolios would see some interesting moves in...

In a market like this, I don't envisage big moves among index-linked stocks; a stable one above support will be good enough. Of course, in guarding against the opposite, I'll press the red button if things were to go wrong...

League Table...Annual Performance 2011

2012-01-07T09:19:00.002+08:00

2011 saw an above-market performance from both Alpha Chart portfolios. Golden Nest was slightly above the benchmark FBM KLCI while Reflexivity was the star portfolio which delivered a double-digit returns amid a flattish overall market.

It was indeed a stellar performance from Reflexivity portfolio, outshining many others, with a 34.36% return, at the top of the table.

Golden Nest was a tad better than the benchmark with a 1.64% return which noticed a rather quiet year with my conservative stance, wanting to manage risk than return.

Portfolio Outlook 2012:-
Mind you that 2012 will not make an easy year for many global investors as volatility remains the game highlight. Nonetheless, there will be some short-term trade opportunities as well as some highly selective stocks that worth investors' wait for some handsome return if one could hold out the next 2-3 years.

Essentially, the right ingredients for investment success for the next few years are holding power, right stock selection, right stock price and patience. Of course, for really outstanding result, one needs the skill set to time the market. Just because many, including experts, warn against timing the market; it doesn't mean it can't be done.

On 2012 outlook, I see Reflexivity likely to maintain its track records given its trading-based investing principle which will constantly look at maximising gains while minimising losses.

As for Golden Nest, 2012 will not be as quiet as 2011... The current stock selection is based on longer term technical view plus fundamental support; these stocks are expected to bring positive contribution to the return and I'm still on the lookout for similar stocks for further build-up.

Coming up soon is the portfolio performance update since the inception of Reflexivity portfolio.

Do come back before next trading session as I'll publish a tactical post on a possible 2-week penny rally as soon as next Monday! A new catalyst is spotted...