Jubbaland is a microcosm of the Somali political conundrum. Not that it is only second to Mogadishu in terms clan-based violence, it has all the highly flammable political elements necessary to detrimentally undermine the current government, and, God-forbid, reignite the 1991 civil war all over again.

Contested Authority

For decades, since the founding of the Somali Youth Club (later League,) May 15 has been a special day in the Somali history. In its heyday, SYL was broadly recognized as the most authentic country-wide patriotic movement. This year was even more special as it marked the 70th anniversary of its founding. However, the anniversary passed without any fanfare because of two particular political and legislative trials.

Two contending men with heavily armed militias have each declared himself the “President of Jubbaland” (and a third one has declared himself as the President of Wamoland.) With this latest development, the city of Kismaayo, in due course, could suffer the Galka’yo syndrome where non-compromising clan contention has forced the town of Galka’yo into a demarcation of several political fiefdoms ruled by several different Presidents.

Meanwhile, a coalition of MPs has submitted a motion forcing Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon to appear before the Parliament to seek vote of confidence. Though their declared motive was that the Council of Ministers has neglected its duty and that some ministries are hardly functioning—a concern that many would agree to—the timing and the most vocal representatives of the coalition suggest otherwise. More like a payback to a government that insisted on appointing a Governor to the Lower Jubba region (as it did for Hiiraan, Bay and Gedo) before commencing the process of building a Federal State which constitutionally requires the voluntary consent of two or more functional regions. This latter point has been a bone of contention between the Federal Government and the proponents of the Jubbaland initiative.

Cause and Effect

Like all things political, the current dilemma did not materialize out of a vacuum. The strategic, commercial, agricultural, and oil prospect of the region has lured various groups of warlords, clan-based militias, militant religious extremists and foreign predators into an ever-morphing struggle for control. Moreover, almost all of these actors find their encouragement from the Dual-Track policy which lends all, except al-Shabaab, either tacit or direct support. Also, from IGAD (read Kenya and Ethiopia) which now has a legal mandate to micromanage the Somali internal affairs as Article 10 of the 21st Extraordinary Summit which was held a few days before the London Conference held on May 7 deals with the current government as though it’s still in transition.

Last July, as the transitional government’s term was coming to an end, I authored an article entitled Post-Transitional Political Fault Lines. In it I listed “The Lower Jubba Enigma” as one of the fault lines to seriously threaten the soon to be formed government. I must have underestimated the potential volatility since Jubbaland now has a combination of several active fault lines out of that list.

Danger lurks as the average person in Kismaayo—the epicenter of rapidly gathering political tsunami—belongs to one of these three categories: either being intoxicated with euphoria, dejected by frustration or incapacitated by fear. Meanwhile, those contending for power are positioning themselves for the worst case scenario.

An Alternative to an Unsettling Option

All options that are currently on the table are considered zero-sum by one group or another. So, something must change, and soon, before things fall apart and issues reach beyond repair.
That said; a sure way to failure is to try to attempt solving all problems at the same time; hence the importance of prioritization. While the foreign predatory element might be strategically the most potent threat, the clan-activated fault line, due to its emotionally reactive nature and tendency to engage haphazardly, might require the most immediate attention.

This means that the Federal Government would have to come up with a strategy beyond the assertion of “We do not recognize any of the illegally formed Jubbaland administrations.”

Of course, this would not be an easy task; especially, since the government has a credibility issue due to the following reasons: A combination of presidential public misspeak and an out of context statement that seems to grant certain regions the right to form their own Federal State while denying others. This, needless to say, seem to single out one particular clan that, ironically, supported President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s candidacy only a few months ago.

The said issue has motivated a deliberate campaign that projected the current government as arbitrarily curtailing the rights of that particular clan. Since no reconciliation has yet taken place to heal old wounds and trust still remains very fragile, it is no surprise that that negative perception has spread so widely within that one clan to the point that it became the battle cry of otherwise its intellectuals and most reasonable members. The government, on its part, has failed to recognize the importance of timely reaction and perception management and decided to focus on international relations.

Second, it has been, at best, very tentative or ambivalent in declaring its frustration with the role of its neighbors, Kenya and Ethiopia, in adding fuel to the fire in Jubbaland.

Changing Course

Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary responses. Therefore, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must directly appeal to and mend fences with the elders and opinion-makers of the aforementioned aggrieved clan also help de-escalate the intra-clan tension through face-to-face, radio, television and internet.

The President should immediately appoint a highly credible envoy to spearhead a diplomatic campaign and be stationed in Nairobi Embassy. It is there where the political infrastructure and the apparatus propelling the Jubbaland project are fueled.

Provide a face-saving opportunity for key contending actors by appointing them or any of their chosen representatives, along with other government representatives, as part of a Stabilization Council to defuse the tension. This Council can play the role of the Governor and govern the region by consensus for 90 or so days before an all-inclusive election would take place.

In the event that they dismiss the offer, the government should request the Kenyan troops to arrest those jeopardizing the security of the region. Precedent was set when two of the most feared warlords were arrested in Mogadishu on two different occasions. In the event that Kenya dismisses the request, the government should exercise its authority to issue a Cease and Desist and demand the immediate withdrawal of the Kenyan (and Ethiopian) troops.

Such an action would put the onus on Kenya to indicate its stance: Is it part of the AMISOM which operates under AU/UN mandate and is in partnership with the Federal Government, or is it a stealth occupying force?

On Sunday, April 14, Mogadishu’s main courthouse was attacked by nine gunmen who killed 35 people and wounded 50 more. Immediately, officials declared that the perpetrators were “foreign elements within al-Shabaab” or Al Qaida. They said the attacks were carried out by nine men who had bombs strapped around their waists, and that one of the nine was a Somali-Canadian youth who recently moved to Mogadishu. The finding was delivered much faster than any first class counter-terrorism experts and forensic investigators anywhere could.

This is not the first time that the media has implicated a “radicalized youth” from the Somali diaspora. In fact, most, if not all, of the most gruesome terrorist acts carried out in Somalia — including theHargeisa and Bosaso bombings and the Hotel Shamo bombing – were credited to diaspora youth, all within hours from the tragedy.

Here, of course, is where diligent journalism driven by reasoned skepticism is needed — journalists who are willing to press authorities and various counter-intelligence professionals with the right questions: Has there been a thorough forensic investigation? Why would Al Shabaab assign their presumably most important terrorist operations to youth from abroad when there are local ones (willing to commit anything) in abundance? As a group that is suspicious of anything Western, what has been compelling them to this new pattern of trusting youth from the West whom they otherwise considered corrupt and potential moles?

Now it could very well be that these express narratives were not in any way intended for political or security expedience and that they were all evidence-based, but the culture of passively accepting such narratives without any scrutiny is counterproductive if not outright dangerous. After all, there are many internal and external elements that stand to benefit out of certain assassinations and terrorist acts.

Somalia still remains as one of the most dangerous places for journalists to operate. It is ranked 175 in the 2013 World Press Freedom Index out of 179 countries reviewed by Reporters Without Boarders. Somali journalists continue being systematically eliminated. In 2012, 18 journalists were assassinated; and this year, five more were assassinated. Not surprisingly, on each of these cold-blooded murders an official narrative that points the finger at the usual suspect was offered.

This relentless pattern of express narratives that gets away with minimum or no scrutiny neither helps the victims nor serves the overall public interest.

On April 15, two bombs were set off near the finish line of the Boston Marathon killing at least three — including an eight-year-old  child — and wounding more than 260 people. The alleged perpetrators were two brothers from Chechnya — a 26 and a 19-year-old.

Unlike the ones in Somalia, this horrific event was unique as it was globally monitored by the media and digital savvy activists from around the world. The official narrative of the case and the chorological sequence of events have changed a number of times; and some argue that it cannot stand thorough scrutiny.

The mainstream media had its own marathon, or rather sprint (for “exclusives”), to win. Fact or fiction did not matter; who reported first did. Since the alleged perpetrators matched the usual suspect profile and there was a video clip showing they were carrying backpacks, the media was more interested on whether or not there was a foreign connection, namely Al Qaida. Never mind that in Boston — the city with perhaps the highest per capita colleges and universities in the world — there are more people carrying backpacks than not.

When All Hate Broke Loose    

While most of the mainstream media refrained from its past flagrant wide brush strokes of “Islamic terrorism” some, along with other Islamophobic elements, could not resist the opportunity.

Here is an excerpt from Earl Cox’s diatribe showcased on the Jerusalem Post – a man appointed by Prime Minister Netanyahu as a Goodwill Ambassador from Israel to the Jewish and Christian communities around the world:

“Can you believe it? Catholic Bishop O’Malley tells the crowd at a hastily arranged interfaith service in Boston that Islam is not to be blamed for the Marathon massacre. He repeats the politically correct lie that Islam is really a peaceful religion.” Cox concludes, “It is time that Israeli and U.S. government and religious leaders stand up and face Islam for what it really is.”

Consolidating the collective guilt argument, Congressman Peter King, Chairman of the Sub-Committee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, told the following to the National Review:

“Police have to be in the (Muslim) community, they have to build up as many sources as they can, and they have to realize that the threat is coming from one community and increase surveillance there…We can’t be bound by political correctness.”

In that same spirit, though more vicious, columnist Erik Rush who regularly appears on Fox News posted this for a tweet: “Muslims are evil. Let’s kill them all.”

Perilous Media Groupthink

If this was to offend our collective conscience, it was hard to tell through media reports. Other than superficial mention here and there, there was no significant scrutiny against such hate speech. But this should not surprise anyone as most media groups go into the “us against them” mode after each terrorist act.

Pavlovian reaction or conditioned reflex is a phenomenon made famous by Ivon Pavlov. Unlike knee-jerk reaction which is often random, the aforementioned is triggered by controllable conditioning. Pavlov taught his dogs to associate the ringing of the bell with the sight and smell of food thus inducing them to salivate more in expectation upon hearing the bell. Terrorism has inculcated media to behave in a certain jingoistic manner.

Media should diligently and ethically uphold their journalistic responsibilities without worrying about whether or not their deliberate pursuit of truth is or isn’t popular. Popularity contests should not be their game.  Unfortunately, since the media nowadays is owned by big corporations and its actions and inactions are often driven by their respective bottom lines, profiling audiences and feeding them steady diets of selective exposure and tailored narratives is the name of the game. And that could be the core problem.

When the media is numbed by complaisance and groupthink, two critical bulwarks against abuse of power are compromised — checks and balances and the presumption of innocence until proven guilty.

Regardless of how politically unpopular these words might be nowadays, suspects are merely suspects until proven otherwise. That is to say presumption of innocence until proven guilty is not a subjective privilege; it is a fundamental constitutional and moral right.

The G8 foreign ministers expressed their determination to provide high level political support to the process of Somalia’s re-engagement with the International Financial Institutions (IFI) – the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB), and the African Development Bank (AfDB) – institutions created to promote macroeconomic cooperation, development and stability with sound fiscal, monetary and financial policies at national and international levels. Given the stringent policies and procedures of the IFI with regard to countries in default like Somalia, the ministers strongly urged the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to demonstrate particular political commitment to the public financial management by strengthening transparency and accountability as an essential condition for IFI re-engagement.

Specifically on the issue of national integration, the G8 foreign ministers underscored the importance of a comprehensive political settlement in Somalia, including clarity on relations between central and regional authorities. This calls attention to the flawed and opposing working relationship between center and periphery. Regions must be integrated into the national macroeconomic framework, security and justice system. The UNDP’s operational division of Somalia into South Central, Puntland and Somaliland has to end.

The G8 decisions are consistent with the new international vision and strategy outlined in the New Deal based on the concept of comprehensive approach centered on local ownership. The goal is to end the statelessness, fragmentation and fragility condition of the countries in conflicts by empowering the local citizens to shape their destiny peacefully, collectively, and democratically.

The G8 actions complement the list of actions either already taken or under finalization by the IC. Those actions include the UN Mini Summit that re-defined the role of the IC in Somalia, the US diplomatic recognition of the FGS, the lifting of arms embargo, the review of AMISOM operation, the new UN Integrated mission for Somalia, the intense engagement of Somali political factions and entities for final political compromise, and the upcoming conferences in London, Brussels and Yokohama.

On May 7, the British Government and the FGS will co-chair the first international conference on Somalia ⁽¹⁾ , which will endorse the immediate Somali priorities of rebuilding national institutions for security forces-army, police, and coastguard-, justice, public financial management and deepening political cohesion. Ninth century Muslim scholar, Imam Ibn Muhammad Al Qutaybah Ad-Dinawaree said on government, “There can be no government without an army, No army without money, No money without prosperity, And no prosperity without justice and good administration.” The statement mirrors the priorities expected from London Conference. One potential outcome could be the transformation of the six pillars of President Hassan Sh Mohamud into two years of IFI supported transitional program with benchmark tasks and price tag of one billion dollars.

Somalia will be high on the agenda of the 5^th Tokyo International Development Conference on Africa (TIDCA) to be held in Yokohama, Japan from 1 to 3 June 2013. UK as chair of G8 will present the case of Somalia to the conference for mobilizing political and diplomatic support for socio economic assistance with particular emphasis on the humanitarian dimension. Japan, the African Union, the WB, the UNDP and the UN Office of the Special Advisor on Africa are co-organizers of the conference.

In September, the EU and the FGS will co-chair another conference in Brussels, Belgium. That conference will endorse the medium term compact between Somalia and the IC as a blueprint for the reconstruction of Somalia.

On April 3, 2013 the AfDB Board of Directors approved Somalia Country’s Brief 2013-2015. With this approval, Somalia will be able to benefit from fragile states facility (TSF), African Water Facility (AWF) and Special Relief Facility (SRF) administered by AfDB. Since 2010, Somalia received about 3.7 million dollars from AfDB.

On April 12, 2013, IMF recognized the FGS, which paves the way for direct cooperation. WB has had an engagement program with Somalia since the preparation of the Joint Needs Assessment (JNA) in 2007 which produced Somalia Reconstruction and Development Program (RDP) of five years period with the total outlay of 2.2 billion dollars. Somalia owes about 600 million dollars of arrears to the IMF and the WB out of the outstanding debt of US$ 3.656 billion. The US government intends to help Somalia for clearing the arrears.

IFIs play a catalyst role for donors’ financial support, debt relief under highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), and foreign investment. Donors’ priority tends to be first political reform, technical assistance and control of domestic financial resources before significant financial aid. Therefore, the process of re-engagement with IFI and IC will be arduous and complex and requires dedication, perseverance and professional and political skills. FGS must be adequately prepared on mapping problems and policy priorities, on commitment and capability for the re-engagement with the IC and IFI.

The role of Economic recovery in peacebuilding and statebuilding

The title of the book of Dr. Ali Isse Abdi, former IMF official, “Somalia: Crisis in Economic and Financial Management: The Root Cause of the State Collapse and the Principal Challenge to NationalRecovery”, summarizes the main source of the past and present troubles of Somalia.

At the end of 1970s, Somalia endured severe economic downturn due to high inflation and unemployment caused by widespread macroeconomic mismanagement, political repression, corruption, wars and draughts. Black market economy, capital flight, tax evasion, Franco Valuta system (import of commodities without foreign exchange payment through the banking system), currency substitution (dollarization) and public service desertion (brain drain) flourished and changed the structure of the Somali economy.

The Somali currency (the Somali Shilling) begun to lose progressively its three functions of unit of account, medium of exchange and store of value. Thus, the ruling regime entered negotiations with IMF and WB for economic and financial support and adopted successive Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP).

While Somalia’s performance of SAP was presented as a success story, this success did not last long because selfish politicians and technocrats campaigned for the program’s interruption. The regime refused to implement trade liberation, financial and public enterprise reforms that have been the major source of economic deterioration. The Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) was unable to resist the financing of rampant government budget deficit.

The interruption of IMF/WB program followed by massive credit creation utilized through cashier checks precipitated economic and financial catastrophe that led to the collapse of the Commercial Bank of Somalia. This financial calamity combined with general discontent fuelled the uprising that brought down the entire Somali state in 1991. That economic deterioration continues as of today. The lack of credible macro-economic data on GDP and GNP, debt to GDP ratios, foreign currency reserve, consumer price index, inflation rate, unemployment, money supply, human development indicators and accountable institutions will be one of the major obstacles to economic recovery. It is not wrong to assume that the economic and social indicators produced by donors after 1991 are not capturing in full the depth of the socio-economic disaster that afflicted Somalia for more than 35 years.

The recent appreciation of the value of the 1,000 note Somali Shilling (So Sh) vis-à-vis the dollar throughout Somalia has thrown the FGS and regional authorities into confusion because both levels of government were not prepared for how to deal with this macroeconomic shock. All necessary informational, political and institutional/administrative conditions for macroeconomic management are yet to be established.

The supply of fake notes fueled continuous spiral of the Somali exchange rate from So Sh. 15,000 in 2006 to So Sh. 35,000 in 2008 before it came down to So Sh. 19,800 in 2013. Contrary to the economic theory explanations, both the appreciation and depreciation of the Somali exchange rate have had devastating effects on the large segment of the poor population because the consumer goods, services and assets are priced in US dollar.

The formulation and implementation of macroeconomic policies requires effective leadership, trained staff, aggregate data collection, analysis, monitoring and evaluation. The Ministry of finance, the CBS, the General Accountant, and General Auditor share the responsibilities of the macroeconomic financial management functions. The integrity and capability of those institutions under the leadership and oversight of the president, prime minister, and the federal parliament is critical for laying the basic foundation of the statebuilding in Somalia.

National integration and close cooperation with the IFI will expedite the painstaking process of the return to the use of domestic currency as the legal tender for the restoration of financial system of Somalia. As part of its institutional responsibilities, the CBS must endeavor to establish first its internal functional structure to face the challenges of establishing an efficient and secure national payment system which is crucial to the economic recovery and development. Incidentally, it would be appropriate that the FGS considers the destruction of the “N” Banknote held by De La Rue, a longtime client of the CBS. De La Rue deserves credit for not using corrupt tactics to transfer the currency stock in its warehouses to illegitimate local warlords or entities in order to get back its outstanding debt.

Finally, the efforts of the FGS with regard to macroeconomic management policies cannot be effective unless the country is hierarchically organized. The circular flows of the economy presuppose formation of markets, freedom of movement, reliable national public administration and system of justice in all corners of Somalia. The time span Somalia will graduate from the failed/fragile situation will depend on the determination of the Somali people for unity, cooperation and common agenda for the ultimate purpose of national economic prosperity.

1. 2012 London Conference on Somalia served to dissolve the International Contact Group and approve UK Lead role.

A Japanese court on Friday sentenced an African man, one of four who attempted to hijack a Japanese tanker off the coast of Oman, to 11 years in jail, a report said.

The 21-year-old man was a juvenile under Japanese law at the time of the incident and among four Africans, believed to be from Somalia, arrested in March 2011 over the attack in the Indian Ocean, Jiji Press said.

Men armed with submachine guns tried to seize the tanker, which was operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and had 24 crew members aboard, the report said.

US Navy personnel captured the men and handed them over to Japan’s coastguard, which for the first time applied the nation’s new anti-piracy law to transport them to Tokyo to face trial.

The defendant, who was not named because of his age at the time of the crime, had pleaded not guilty, saying the small boat he was aboard was simply adrift and had asked for help from the tanker, Jiji said.

But the judge determined he was part of the attempted hijacking from the testimonies of other men, it said.

Two of the African men, who were adults at the time, were earlier given a jail term of 10 years, while the fourth man, also a juvenile at the time, was given a jail term of no less than five and no more than nine years.

The court used two sets of interpreters — one from Japanese to English and another from English to Somali.

After a spike at the start of the last decade, successful pirate attacks on commercial vessels sailing off the Horn of Africa have diminished, deterred by an international deployment of warships to patrol the coast.

Somali pirates have been tried in countries including the Netherlands and South Korea.

Source: Bangkok Post

Representative Keith Ellison said in an interview with VOA’s Somali Service that he is not aware of any recent cases of young people from his area being recruited or traveling to Somalia to fight with militant groups like al-Shabab.

Ellison warns that because recruitment often takes place “in the dark,” or secretly, it may still be going on.

He says lack of integration into American society – caused by high unemployment and the expense of higher education – has made Somali-American youths more vulnerable to terrorist recruitment.

“It’s important that we make sure that there [are] jobs, education, opportunity for Somali-American youth so that they will be able to say ‘no’ to these kinds of recruitments,” he said.

The congressman says it is also important to make sure the FBI and American law enforcement are seen as allies to the Somali immigrant community.

Last year, a Somali national was convicted by a U.S. federal court on charges of conspiring to recruit young men from Minnesota to join the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab in its push to topple the Mogadishu government.

Ellison, the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Congress, recently visited Somalia.

Source: Voice of America 

The two legal principles are direct opposites. Retributive justice considers crimes as aggravations against the State and supports punishment as a legitimate response as long as it is proportionate. Its central persuasion being that punishment deters abusers and stimulates behavioural change.

But proponents of restorative justice point out that it is adversarial, backward looking and does nothing for the victims.
Arguably, post-conflict communities are sometimes better off choosing a form of justice which establishes both accountability and restitution/reparation to victims.

And restorative justice is said to be a healing, forward-looking option which, at once, ensures that perpetrators accept responsibility for their criminal actions, but also benefit from the possibility of reconciling with their victims.

In Kenya, during the Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto inauguration, where Mr Museveni was scathing about the ICC, the search for justice is underway. Kenya’s two topmost leaders were indicted by the court following the 2007 post-election violence. Only time will tell if the ICC, which has been pigeon-holed as a tool of whimsical Western retribution, will grant reliefs. A haranguing of the process will not close the finely balanced issues.

The court may have stumbled since inception in 1998 but Uganda and other nations also signed and ratified the Rome Statute which established it as one way of dealing with impunity. We must constantly remind ourselves that only when the global community is unanimous in its conviction that justice must always be found for victims of crimes against humanity shall the world be safer.
Any equivocation, or one-sided views of the court’s progress so far, only emboldens those who would cause large scale death and suffering.
Instructively, recent events suggest that real fear of international sanction is spreading across our continent. It is, after all, in Africa where a disproportionate amount of crimes against humanity continue to occur, sometimes at the instigation of State actors.

The ICC may not be the perfect response, but it is good to know that it provokes all sorts of emotions in the hearts of perpetrators of evil.

Source: Daily Monitor