Also sprach Analyst

China’s trade data for November disappoint

2012-12-10T04:39:59Z

China’s export and import growth on a year-on-year basis were both worse than expected for November.

Export rose 2.9% in November compared with the same month last year, down from 11.6% yoy growth in October, and well below consensus estimate of 9.0% yoy, while import was flat compared to a year ago, down from 2.4% yoy growth in October, and also below consensus estimate of 2.0% growth. The resulting trade surplus was US$19.6 billion, down from US$32 billion in October, and below consensus estimate of US$25.7 billion.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, export fell 3.2%, while import fell 6.6%.

Source: China Customs

This article originally appeared here: China’s trade data for November disappoint
Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate

China’s fixed asset investment growth at 20.7% yoy for Jan-Nov

2012-12-09T15:55:55Z

China’s fixed asset investment year-to-date growth remains unchanged.

Year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment for January to November remains at 20.7%, same as that for January to October, and slightly below consensus estimate of 20.8% yoy. For November alone, however, growth slowed slightly from 22.4% yoy in October to 20.0% yoy in November.

Infrastructure and related fixed asset investment continued to be the biggest driver of fixed asset investment growth in November, while growth in investment in manufacturing sector remains relatively weak. On a non-accumulative basis (i.e. comparing November this year with November last year), total infrastructure investment rose 41.9% yoy, up from 25.5% yoy in October, while investment in manufacturing sector continued to slow from 19.7% yoy to 19.4% yoy based on our calculations.

Meanwhile, in a separate release, year-to-date year-on-year growth in real estate investment picked up from 15.4% in October to 16.7%.

Source: NBS

This article originally appeared here: China’s fixed asset investment growth at 20.7% yoy for Jan-Nov
Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate

China’s retail sales rose 14.9% yoy in November

2012-12-09T15:39:29Z

Retail sales growth picked up further in November. Total retail sales rose 14.9% yoy in nominal term, or 13.6% yoy in real term, up from 14.2% yoy in nominal term in October, or 13.5% yoy in real term. This is better than consensus estimate of 14.6% yoy.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, growth picked up from the revised 1.35% in October to 1.47% in November.

Source: NBS

This article originally appeared here: China’s retail sales rose 14.9% yoy in November
Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate

China’s industrial production growth increased to 10.1% yoy in November

2012-12-09T15:27:13Z

China’s industrial production growth improved further in November.

Growth of industrial production accelerated from 9.6% yoy to 10.1% yoy, better than consensus estimate of 9.8% yoy. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production rose 0.86% in November, up from the revised 0.83% rise in October.

The closely watched growth in electricity output continued to accelerate from 6.4% yoy to 7.9% yoy after staying in low single-digit rate for two consecutive quarters, suggesting a continued improvement in economic activities into the fourth quarter.

Source: NBS

This article originally appeared here: China’s industrial production growth increased to 10.1% yoy in November
Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate

China CPI inflation rose to 2.0% yoy in November

2012-12-09T14:49:05Z

China’s CPI inflation increased slightly in November.

Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.0% yoy from 1.7% yoy in October, slightly lower than consensus estimate of 2.1% yoy. On a month-on-month basis, CPI increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, up from -0.1% in October.

Looking into different components, inflationary pressure remains minimal for non-food items, which rose 1.6% yoy, or flat on a month-on-month basis, while food prices rose 3.0% yoy, or 0.1% on a month-on-month basis.

Meanwhile, producer price index (PPI) fell 2.2% yoy in November, lower than consensus estimate of -2.0% yoy. On a month-on-month basis, PPI fell 0.1%, down from +0.2% rise in October.

Source: NBS

These are consistent with our view that there should be very little inflationary pressure in non-food items after years of over-investment in productive capacity, while food prices inflation remain relatively stable for the moment.

This article originally appeared here: China CPI inflation rose to 2.0% yoy in November
Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate