An Amateur's Stock Market Analysis

The Best Investing For Me

2012-07-13T15:00:00.012-07:00

I've been studying my success and failure for some time now and these are the best for me.
Stocks: MO (in the $20s), BA (in the $30s), DD (in the $20s). These all fluctuate wildly but always pay a nice dividend. Buy them reasonably and they will treat you right.
ETFs: Country: RSX (in the $20s), Commodity inverse DZZ (when gold is outrageous), I hope I never have to use SDS (S&P inverse) again, and if you can see the rebound SSO. These last 3 are strictly opportunistic and radical. I'm not a buy and hold guy on ETFs. In and out it is and these are all dangerous. The Russian one is not as dangerous as the other three. Costs are cheap on ETFS.
Mutual Funds: These are buy and hold. ANCFX (93% stocks & front load), FAIRX (95% stocks), FBALX (61% stocks 32% bonds). These 3 do not have too many overlapping investments and do not include my top three stocks currently. Very good.
Specialty Funds: AMAGX (91% stocks Islamic values, I am not Islamic), SHSAX (93% Health stocks), LIGRX (77% Intermediate Term Investment Grade bonds & 15% cash).
That's the truth and what I'm stickin' to.

next mistake(s)

2012-05-18T09:38:00.005-07:00

yeah i got caught up in the FB buzz and bought some.

AFTERWORD, MAY 23: Sing along, "Morgan Stanley, scumbag worm-meat idiots."
Yep, the public got burned. If you are unhappy about it call your broker & register a trade dispute regarding the fact that there was no public disclosure by MS et al. on the downward revision of earnings by FB. Only extremely large (institutional for instance) investors were made aware of the downward revision, leaving the public at risk. The big shots will always try to get over. Let's make them pay this time. The big shots were selling short and pocketing your money. Again, again and again the banks are trying to cause another debacle before their last one is even over. For high paid guys they ain't smart.

WORD AFTER AFTERWORD, MAY 27: Well, even though Morgan Stanley has agreed to make their investors well (APPARENTLY AS A GOOD WILL SINCE MS did nothing wrong), it seems that protocol is not passed on to other houses. So that leaves class action litigation. Boo Hoo.

Should you sell, buy more, or go blind? None of my business, but my business is that I want full disclosure before I purchase anything. Do I still believe in FB? Doesn't matter. Right now I want my money back so that I can make a informed decision.

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My Pants on Fire

2012-05-17T10:05:00.006-07:00

On 5/10/12 I was Liar Liar!

Before I get started, go read "Has Altria Become the Perfect Stock?" in the Motley Fool (Oct. 2011). Altria is.

Oh things have reversed since my last article. Our lowest point now is after the sell-off in the last few hours of trading. BAD SIGN-NO REBOUND THROUGH THE DAY'S TRADING. Bad sign, "I been down since I begin to crawl". Be afraid now.

Hey, it's still generally easy & true: Buy in October, sell in May. A few years may vary but you're making money that way. In a flat market making money is good. You can do it with stocks if you are willing to pay commissions. Commissions aren't very much at many reputable brokerage houses with online access. However, your mutual fund company won't let you buy & sell into their money market (if they even offer that option). They call that market timing and claim that it affects investors too much. Bull-it affects CEO's paychecks and guarantees. Go ahead and try it. Buy your mutual funds in October and sell them into the safer (American Funds, who I happen to like, or whatever) mutual fund's money market in May. Then rebuy the same equity funds in October again. There is no law against it. Your mutual fund company will tell you that they don't need your business very soon.
Buy and hold. It works for American Funds but not for you. Investing isn't about the investor's well-being. If it was about you, fundamental and competent market timing would be allowed and encouraged.

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It's the Stupid Economy

2012-05-10T11:52:00.006-07:00

The election is about the economy?
The economy is irrelevant in the election I say.
You deal with, not dictate, the economy as it happens as President.
To try to anticipate an economic direction, especially that of a "World Economy" is fruitless for President O. or R. or G. or Q. and also is fruitless for the investor.
We currently have no problem investors, even in this May (normal) downturn. Watch the pattern here. The low point is at the open or soon thereafter. Bulls still in charge for now. Stay the course if you're in and don't bet against an election year market.
I'm so Independent I don't care which of these practically powerless guys wins. Mr. Market loves gridlock so...
CEOs run the economy stupid! Everyone else reacts!

Shame on You Liars

2012-01-31T10:37:00.000-08:00

I just heard that XOM made another 9.4 bil. in the last reported quarter. Dey still keepin dat divudund at 2% yowsers! Tanks alot! Let me tell you the familiar refrain if I must: "We continue to strive to do the best for our shareholders." Ad nauseam They All Say That, but at least Altria pays out something more than 2%. Now Exxon Mobil's CEOs will surely get no more than a 2% raise? Everything possible will be allocated to our beloved shareholders.
I'm not saying that I don't own any XOM. I'm sure that I do. I know I sold them short once and was sorry. And I'm not trying to say that Altria's CEOs are suffering because of shareholder payouts.
I'm just saying.

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Gold Turns to Mold, As the World Turns, Other Randoms

2011-09-25T09:57:00.000-07:00

Well I did the right thing and double-shorted gold at $1900/oz. Meanwhile, I lose 5K per day in stocks. Dona cara. The dollar is almighty at 2% on a ten year note?? Put mine in the toilet please at that interest.
STOCKS TUMBLE ON DOUBLE DIP FEARS. When did the recession end so that we could double down?
And what in the world does unemployment have to do with the stock market? What a load of bull. Are all of you people living in the street now in the stock market?
Corporate profits built on the back of unemployment remains a facade. Here's the truth CEOs: $ talks but it can't sing and dance unless it's dance macabre.
Problem main is that I can't buy a million shares of anything at one time-too diversified. If you got billions it's impossible to lose money, if you don't it's impossible to make money. Kinda leaves a few of us out.

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Dow Still Too High

2011-08-22T09:34:00.000-07:00

Clearly the stock market is now a rich, gambling man's game. No longer is the regular guy involved. While this is certainly dismaying, those of us still along for the ride needn't worry. The DJIA et al. will yo-yo like crazy but will always go back up. Those rich day-traders always will gamble (with our money). If you have time to wait (always 2-5 year cycles) just relax and collect distributions. The Dow still hasn't dipped to 10500, where it belongs. Let it bleed. Don't worry, be happy.
Altria is still my favorite stock. Habits don't break and can even increase in hard times. That makes dividends increase.
American Funds are still my favorite mutuals, long term. They use a team approach.
Russia is still my favorite ETF country. They play no one's games but their's and are resource loaded.
Gold is my favorite thing to short at $2500/oz. For well you know that it's a fool who plays it cool by making his world a little golder.
Final assessment of current market gambling: It is still a better chance than slot machines. You may only lose 1/2 of your money instead of all of it. I might currently recommend blackjack over the stock market, especially single-deck. Craps is definitely favored over stocks if one knows the game. In short, the stock market (specifically growth with no distributions) is now casino gambling, a middle class addiction possibly (but not winnable).

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Can you believe, Ezine didn't like this one? Mr. Grammar Person dislikes

2011-08-18T09:05:00.000-07:00

Stock Market Volatility My Butt

By: JW

Article ID: 6489206

Article Submitted: August 13, 2011

Category: Finance:Personal-Finance

Article Word Count: 670

Article In Problem Status

Sorry, your article contains grammar, spelling, punctuation, or sentence structure errors.
Your article does not contain appropriate paragraph breaks
Yeah, blah blah blah-most of my articles go to PROBLEM STATUS

Commandment: In all facets people must be manipulated by greed and/or fear.
Allrighty then,
Monday Aug. 8, 2011, DJIA -634
Tuesday Aug. 9, 2011, DJIA +429
Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2011, DJIA -519
Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011, DJIA +422 and I can therefor afford to play golf. Lousily, but that's not this story.
So duh,what's up? Day trading billionaires, that's what. Monday short, then long, then short, then long. Get it?
There oughta be a law. But the regulators (if there were any conscious) are in someone's pockets aren't they?
What's so hard about common sense? I have no problem with guys selling short, long, or keeping all their money in $30000 per ounce gold. But if someone sells short they shouldn't be able to turn around the next day and go long. Regulators, asleep at the switch, need to institute laws whereby these privileged day traders have to hold their position for 30 days. Then they could get hurt instead of just hurting the general public.
It just breaks my heart to watch these money hungry boogers dissolve the middle class before our eyes. And they are blatant and getting away with it.
Look, they are never going to get me. I'm untouchable. I control my lifestyle and can live on 10K a year.
I will always be debt free (the average family debt is in the area of 200K, look it up).
But I am eternally worried that we will wind up with a 2 class society-haves and have not's. I will be on the outside but I will be crying. It's NOT ABOUT ME. It's about capitalism giving everyone a chance. That's the way it's supposed to be.
Tell me why 8 billion bucks isn't enough. Tell me why someone needs 9 billion instead.
So, this day trading for the rich makes me puke, because if you have a lousy half mil. you are paralyzed and just riding the yoyo up and down. The way it's working now, insider trading might as well be legal if this day trading sure-thing gambling is legal. (Well insiding is for Somebodies. If Somebodies get caught it is a hand slap if Mr. Media doesn't get rough.)
Look, here's an example of what the normal guy can do: in 2008, when the market was going up and down 1000 points per day, I bet 8K on the S&P short one day. I made a lousy $800. Do most of you have a lousy 8K to do that with? No. So most of us do not have access to this daily up and down drivel. We buy and hold because there is no choice and because we have been told that it is the right choice. But right now you might as well bet the football over-under. What a load! The BIG GUYS are just gambling with your money, hoping you don't know when to hold 'em or fold 'em. And if you got a stinkin' 50K (that's above average) the BIG GUYS want you plenty worried that they are taking you down to 20K.
Well maybe you haven't made yourself untouchable. That's your fault. We keep hearing that we are all in this together, but only if you understand that the enemy is us. NOT THE PROBLEM: Obama, the Tea Party, the stinkin' Commies, V. Putin. US IS.
Well like I said they'll never get me.
Control your lifestyle, stay debt free, DO NOT TOUCH YOUR INVESTMENTS. Live on what you make! Please, don't let the haves do this to you. Already, 1% of the people have all of the money. It could get worse if we let it happen.
We must retain a middle class, which is the backbone of capitalism.
I've heard enough about public debt problems. PERSONAL DEBT IS THE REAL ISSUE HERE-WAKE UP.
Let's get some regulations on these day-traders. They are ruining the country as we watch.
I gotta go, I can't see because I'm cryin' for my species.
GREED RULES burns in Hades.
Jim William is an avid investor who has made plenty of mistakes.
Visit his website at http://themaven.synthasite.com

Capitalism-IT Works For MIGHTY Few

2011-08-05T13:31:00.000-07:00

Why care what S&P or Moody's says? They had Lehman rated AAA the day that the Bros. went under. And B.S. too.
Here we go again boing ga boing, big market swings. Where -300 is a good day. Remember those good old days?-well not so long ago.
While I do admit that Italy's (Italy is in the top 10 in public debt to GDP ratio at over 100%) and Spain's debt issues are a huge problem, Mr. Market's reaction here at home to what usually is a mere procedural issue (our debt ceiling increase) is ludicrous. As personal debt remains the real problem, not public debt (we are not Zimbabwe remember?), the circus show in Washington, DC is just another attempt to steal investment equity from the regular guy. And it's working like always-you are all in that .001% money market running scared, right? Do not worry grasshopper, the rich will get richer again. The rich honestly think IT IS THE WAY. They must believe it because wealth=brains they tell me. Go capitalism. It doesn't work for you unless you can switch a billion dollars from long to short side at the blink of an eye. It does however suck for you. Big Business hoards cash=no job for us'uns.
Anyway, try not to fall for this ploy being tried (and true) by Mr. Monopoly. 10,500 DJIA is a fair number to look at reevaluation. We've been due for a correction as the market is still overvalued. Corporate profit on the back of unemployment is a charade-don't bite the hook. 10,500 is about where we should be freaks.
And don't forget, the last hour of trading is the measure of the market.

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Flogging China New Borun & Other Sino-Stocks

2011-06-16T10:03:00.000-07:00

BORN: IBD "Pump and Dump"? (A lot of people, like I, bought this stock on IBD's recommendation.) Sham or facade stock? In the murky waters of Chinese investing through American boards nobody knows. All of this ilk have been getting hammered. Maybe it's just current China inflationary pressure currently. Or are all Chinese interests listed on our stock exchanges junk? After all, capitalism curtailing in the Chinese government is what they are all about. Anyway, yeah, I bought into BORN at $13 and $9. It is now lucky to tread water at $4/share. Oh well, it's not the first or last "Pump and Dump" for me on the high end. Win in Russia, lose in China. That's me. Talk about volatility, BORN's 52 week range is 3 1/2-20 1/2. I think that for my part I'll just hold. I think a few wild plays for a couple grand are okay if one can afford them. Bet these weirdo things with winnings. Any way, China New Borun makes some kinda corn booze I guess, sold to Chinese citizens. If they are like us, the tougher things get, the more they will drink. IF it's even a real company. Well the P/E on this baby is 2+ and they beat "expected" earnings per share for their last quarter. Whatever, buy in and pump the price up for me. UNDERVALUED is my analysis. I'm in trouble on this one, I see that you don't trust me. Oh by the way, IBD likes them RIGHT NOW!

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Bollinger Bands

2011-03-22T10:55:00.000-07:00

I find that these guys can calm my nerves when my stock is down. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go to Yahoo Finance.
1) put your stock symbol in "Get Quotes"
2) go to "Basic Tech. Analysis"
3) go to "Bollinger Bands"
If your stock falls below the lower grey line, it's still a good buy according to this Bollinger guy. My stocks that I'm losing my butt on usually qualify as good "buys".
Who knows with fickle "Mr. Market"?

Darn That Kha daffy Duck

2011-03-08T15:42:00.000-08:00

HERE WE GO. Dow up 190, down 176 the next day. 1 1/2% daily changes are emotion charged and are unhealthy for the market.
The Dow continues to lag the other benchmarks', although forward compensation on that front looks good. I'm looking for just a nice 20 or 30 point bump per day for a few weeks. We need to settle this upset Mr. Market in a hurry as we only have a few months left until "SELL IN MAY".
Not ready to 2X short gold yet. Stay away from any (benchmark) stock index ETF's right now. Opportunity to double down (see SDS) is coming. Patient, may be a few years yet. Double up (see SSO) is way gone. What can you make, a lousy 40% maximum? (That would be in a 20% DJIA increase to an all time high.)

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Ad Infinitum We Hope-The 3 Ring Circus Comes to Town

2011-02-01T10:34:00.000-08:00

Three's a charm.
1) As January goes so goes the year. Well we just had our best January in 14 years!
Dow +2.7%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P +2.3%.
2) The year after mid-term elections is a winner.
3) The 3rd. year of a President's term is a winner.
#2 or #3 is 70% of the time and the other is 90% of the time. Who cares which is which? So all of the stars are aligned.

Still, I have worries: The S&P is outpacing the Dow consistently. One day last week the S&P was actually the bigger points gainer. Weird! The norm is if the Dow is up 60 the S&P should be up like 6. So buy the Dow as undervalued? I just dunno.

Let's see, Pfizer outperformed expectations but was still down at the open today.
Nobody likes Big-Pharm I guess. I see now they are finally up today.

BP reinstates their dividend. Oh boy, 7 cents in the fourth quarter. And Bank of America never did away with theirs. A penny per quarter! Good news all around.
Jump back on those high yield bank stocks.

Let's wait and see.

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Utah Travel Headlines Blog: Hiking 101: What are the best hikes in Utah?

2011-01-25T10:33:00.000-08:00

Utah Travel Headlines Blog: Hiking 101: What are the best hikes in Utah?

I have this answer also at http://swhikes-maven.blogspot.com/

Dow 12000, Eli's coming, and waiting for Godot

2011-01-24T09:58:00.001-08:00

MIDDLE CLASS, if you are still there, since you have recently hinted at investing here are some thoughts.

Although I love American Funds management style they are cumbersome to manage in downturns. I would lean toward mutual fund companies which are no load and have only a few funds to choose from. Some that come to mind: Appleseed (1 fund), CGM (3 available), Amana (3), Fairholme (1 avail. under 25K). Obviously less funds are easier for management to concentrate on. Again, big companies like Fidelity and Vanguard, although no load, are cumbersome to manage. Mutual funds should only be looked at for their 10+ year performance for those under 40 years of age. You are buy and holders. Regarding mutual funds, you might consider a free 14 day trial with Morningstar Premium to see if you like it. I USE NO SUCH SERVICES.

I love big tobacco stocks (like Altria, practically a fund unto itself). Big dividends due to stigma. Investing is not ethics. Therefor I find large oil tanker stocks to be interesting, e.g. FRO, SFL. They are a necessary evil with big dividends (but extremely volatile obviously). I like the ever evil HAL to get into and out of occasionally. I rue selling MA at $65/share. The poisonous DD I sold too early. For safety I like prices of $15-$30/share with P/Es of 9-15 and dividends of 3%+. Analysts will throw all kinds of other criteria at you, but my formula is simple. All formulas get burned sometime. Unfortunately, this strategy will leave out mid-cap and small-cap (entrepreneurial) stocks which can have gigantic gains more often. They also go to zero value more often. I currently love Russian and Latin American ETFs. I prefer their smaller expenses over relative mutual funds.

Be aware that this rally can not hit full throttle minus reemployment. On the other hand, it's good to see the Dow gaining traction after being spanked by the S&P and Nasdaq so far in the recovery. Don't forget that the Nasdaq is already higher than at the height of the buying frenzy pre-recession (2007).

One final word: YOUARETOOLATE (Investing was timely at Dow 8500).

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A Few Anti-Establishment Rants

2010-11-18T10:35:00.000-08:00

1) I can't stop laughing. Did some of you folks who held the worthless "old" GM stock actually buy the "new" GM stock for the going price? Youz deserve what youz get. I know you are kidding and I can't stop laughing. I would have taken a shot at under $20 a share. Come on guys, I'd rather eat "Mickey D's" three times a day seven days a week. Who cares what form suicide comes in? Put all of the rest of your money in .05% money markets! Hey der ya go, safety net for the next Detroit bankruptcy party. Diversification complete. "Big D" won't even pay a dividend! A thousand year old growth company, hah. Go with Altria please. If you must take a bath, even Ford is a better choice. Same excellent 0% dividend!
2) This time circus rhymes with stalemate. That's o.k., Mr. Market loves stalemates.

Congress has no clue. I would just as soon see them in powdered wigs, sitting around saying harrumph and zzzz. At least it would be genuine, overt circus.

A middle class revolution should discourage over taxation and transaction fees. I don't like taxation without representation, which is what exists currently.
"...tax man's taken all I've got...all I've got's this sunny afternoon...", Kinks

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"The I'm Apolitical But... Blues"

2010-05-10T10:24:00.000-07:00

Warren Buffett ain't a Dem just 'cause he's a bleeding liberal. GW Bush made super sure that history shows better market returns during Democratic presidencies since 1901. Look it up per presidential term average return, per year average, I DON'T CARE WHAT CRITERIA.
His negative return did kick HHH's butt though. Look it all up 'rons! In all fairness,in the same family GHB has one of the best ever S&P returns. Yeah I know Reagan blah blah. (Obama ?stands? to have the best ever return.) Look at the historical (overall) invested middle-class America. Who America? We The People however, have no clue. Go "Teabaggers". It's even worse yet, since Republicans have 60 years of poopy returns since 1901 to 48 years of Dem presidency. So we have been overbalanced negative. Warren has a clue I fear.

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After The "Fat Finger Trade" Debacle

2010-05-07T10:11:00.000-07:00

A day after Procter & Gamble lost 40% and Accenture 100% in minutes (human error, ha ha) let me remind you: Day Trading Is Now Our Major Investment Platform. There are a couple of things going on, all precision aimed to keep the middle class out of the investment process. Oh well, you are too late already, by about 2000 Dow points. At least get out of the money market!

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A Few Obvious Reactions

2009-12-01T17:14:00.000-08:00

Institutional Buyers Of Bank And Thrift Stocks - The Gold Book

Get out of all of those bank stocks that were bought for dividend (as soon as you can break even on them). They slashed your payouts to nil. I think GE will be fine (very long term) with a dividend increase. Don't press your profit on DD (TAKE IT NOW!) Russia will be hot for awhile yet. I always like defensive tobacco (with an advancing high-yield dividend). People will have their cigs.

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Warren and Me

2009-12-01T17:01:00.000-08:00

I'm still a guy who thinks five grand is a lot of money. I can't carry much more than that to the hereafter in my pockets. I think Warren Buffett feels the same way. He don't need a billion dollar house, even though he can.

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It's Not a Secret

2009-12-01T16:59:00.000-08:00

Buy dividend producers with good P.E.s and payout ratios.

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Just a Thought- Check the Daily Volatility

2009-10-27T13:14:00.000-07:00

Here's how to do that. Check the market's numbers an hour before the close. Then how much did it move in the last hour? Sell-off, buy-in, or steady as she goes? We want steady, no 100 point swings in the last hour + or -. Remember, it's a big money man's game. We don't want him over exuberent or crazy scared as we ride along.

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How's Your Volatility Tolerance Index?

2009-10-12T10:06:00.000-07:00

Don't be in volatile situations if it curdles your stomach. Stay in Income and G & I. If you were stuck in a volatile holding, it went down 70-80%. (Unless it was a short.) Did you freak-out? If so, you sold it low. You lost double because it's up 100% since March! Some of my volatile stuff is +200% since then. That doesn't mean I'm even yet. Unless I cost-averaged, I'm still way down from where I bought in at the top. But 200% increases get you well eventually. Know your stomach for risk.

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Balancing Your Financial Research

2009-09-22T14:20:00.000-07:00

I like to use some of the most aggressive "wizards" in conjunction with some of the more conservative analysts to come up with a modicum of sanity. For instance, Pitbull Investor's "Stock Report Card" is extremely aggressive. So I use them with fool.com (Motley Fool) for consensus. Also, tradingmarkets.com (Power Ratings, short term & aggressive) gets used with finance.yahoo.com; powerratings.net (Power Ratings, long term & somewhat aggressive) with moneycentral.msn.com. You get the idea, get a consensus. Guess what, if everyone likes a stock (yeah, even Cramer, with old numbers), it's probably alright. But don't over-analyze, thereby missing a boat. Gut-instinct is often a good thing if you are investing experienced.
For mutual funds disregard the last statements. smartmoney.com and morningstar.com are the definitive experts. If they agree, it will be a winner.
For foreign investing, pay heed to Wikipedia's "List of Countries by Public Debt". Stay away from (by populace) highly indebted nations.

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It's All the Same

2009-08-24T12:42:00.000-07:00

Don't worry about if your gains come in principal or distributions. With a strictly growth instrument, the original stock price must multiply to realize gain. In growth and income or income instruments, gains will be reflected in distributions as well as stock price growth. So, in theory, a long term position in an income holding can gain a lot even if the face value of the stock or mutual fund price remains stagnant.

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