tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677Sun, 19 Apr 2026 07:30:16 +0000English Premier LeagueBrazilCONMEBOLMexicoUEFAUnited StatesArgentinaPoissonSpanish LeagueWorld Cup QualificationCONCACAFSpainWorld Cup DrawmodelingBoliviaChileColombiaCosta RicaEcuadorEl SalvadorFranceGermanyHondurasParaguayPeruPortugalSeedingTrinidad and TobagoUruguayEnglandFuture topicsGoal DifferentialItalyLuckMajor League SoccerManchester UnitedNetherlandsSerie AVenezuelaWorld CupstatsBarcelonaCroatiaManchester CityPoisson-Logit ModelReal MadridRussiaSevillaValenciacorner kicksArsenalAtletico de MadridBlackburn RoversBosnia-HerzegovinaBoxing DayBurnley FCCôte d'IvoireDefense and OffenseEuro 2008German BundesligaGreeceIrelandLiverpoolPortoPortuguese LigaSloveniaSporting LisbonTottenham HotspurUEFA Champions LeagueUkraineVillarrealaverages modelderbiesfoulsintroductionlanguagetimingA nerdy look at the beautiful game.http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Jared)Blogger108125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-8123876096613779081Fri, 11 Jun 2010 09:09:00 +00002010-06-15T15:12:30.302-07:00SpainWorld CupThis article will cover the tactics of the current seleccion española. For a more concise summary, which also covers the defensive setup, see the zonalmarking article on Spain.The Back 4 and GoalkeeperI'll start with the back five to get them out of the way. There are some questions about the lineup at those positions, but they don't affect the style of play or the formation Spain will use.Spain http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/06/world-cup-preview-spain-part-3.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-8220909894061121940Wed, 09 Jun 2010 04:49:00 +00002010-06-09T08:19:40.060-07:00Euro 2008SpainWorld CupOn Spanish TacticsFirstly, I would be remiss if I didn't mention two fairly recent discoveries. The first is the book by Jonathan Wilson called Inverting the Pyramid. It is best described by its subtitle "The History of Football Tactics". The other is the fantastic blog zonalmarking. Reading them has changed the way I watch the game, for the better. For those familiar, the influence should be http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/06/world-cup-preview-spain-part-2.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-4810956160766791097Wed, 09 Jun 2010 02:30:00 +00002010-06-09T04:32:29.254-07:00SpainWorld CupI'm back. I'll get back to my predictions and some of the old stuff later. I was happy with some of it, but was horribly wrong on other stuff - most notably in failing to predict the collapse of Bordeaux, Leverkusen and Juventus. Right now I want to get some World Cup previews out there while they can still be called previews. As you'll see I'm going to go for depth over breadth. I have a lot to http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/06/world-cup-preview-spain-part-1.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-7848030567643880557Thu, 11 Feb 2010 03:32:00 +00002010-04-20T21:08:42.263-07:00If you've checked in regularly, you have probably noticed the lack of posts. I thought it proper to make an announcement and give an explanation as well as some parting thoughts in case things become more permanent. For now, I am putting on hold all work on the blog for at least the next couple months. The short of it is that I now need to put full effort into writing my dissertation so I can http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/02/this-blog-is-on-hold.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-4259949781824358747Fri, 29 Jan 2010 22:34:00 +00002010-01-29T14:39:12.780-08:00The Spanish league has finally reached the halfway point.Most ImpressiveThis is pretty obvious, and it's FC Barcelona. They are in my view the best team in the world and it's not close. While the league as whole seems tougher, particularly their rivals in Madrid appear to be, they keep rolling along. The Blaugrana are 5 points clear at the top of the points table, 9 goals better in goal http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/01/half-time-report-la-liga-espanola.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-247110961893508288Tue, 19 Jan 2010 06:42:00 +00002010-01-19T04:40:38.121-08:00I meant to do this last week, but better late than never as they say.Most ImpressiveI suppose it's Chelsea. The blues are three clear in points, one ahead of Manchester United but with a match in hand, and two goals better in differential than Arsenal, who sit second in that category. I'm not sure if others share it but the feeling I have from watching the league is that the top clubs are less http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/01/epl-halftime-report-long.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-123597935132909310Fri, 15 Jan 2010 02:06:00 +00002010-01-15T02:32:32.708-08:00derbiesOne of the most common clichés in football is that in a derby the records of the teams don't matter. They are thought to be drastically more unpredictable matches in which anything can happen. Is the cliche accurate? Do results from the rest of the season really matter less in a derby?Another question about them is how important home-ground advantage is. It seems that it could go either way. On http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/01/derbies-can-we-really-throw-out-records.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-2510480341292081701Mon, 11 Jan 2010 20:44:00 +00002010-01-11T16:20:57.106-08:00In previous writings I have mentioned that the French Ligue 1 is very tight with a lot of good teams. Bordeaux have now separated themselves and are 9 clear at the top. I think that margin is larger than it should be, but that's a big lead at this stage. After that though there isn't much to separate teams and the top 15 are all pretty strong.Most ImpressivePerhaps I should rename this section "http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/01/winter-break-review-ligue-1.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-6352706376935132404Wed, 06 Jan 2010 20:41:00 +00002010-01-06T15:45:34.663-08:00German BundesligaContinuing the winter-break series, I move to Germany.Most ImpressiveThough they sputtered a bit toward the end with some disappointing draws, I've got to go with Bayer 04 Leverkusen. It's tough to go to another side when there is an undefeated team at the top of the table with the highest goal differential. Looking at stats, Leverkusen also topped the table in shot differential (they took 6.88 http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/01/winter-break-review-bundesliga.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-8912965074720791331Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:04:00 +00002010-01-04T23:13:32.272-08:00Serie AI'm going to try to go over each of the big leagues at this point discussing where we are and what should be expected going forward. I missed the Liga and will probably write that article at the halfway point. I will be giving my opinions more in these articles than usual but will still use the goal-differential and stats-based models.Most ImpressiveThis is the easiest selection of any league. http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2010/01/winter-break-review-serie.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-5873097688759476055Tue, 29 Dec 2009 08:12:00 +00002009-12-29T00:21:09.026-08:00I am currently on a trip with my family and will probably not be able to post anything until early next week. I may have access in the next few days, in which case I'll probably post on the Spanish league since they come back this weekend and the other leagues have more time off. When I get back home, I'll post a half-time report on each of the top leagues. Next week I hope to get back on track http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/on-holiday.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-3253252146791113146Thu, 24 Dec 2009 08:23:00 +00002009-12-24T01:46:50.437-08:00As usual, the last week of the year is filled with English football. This season the fixtures list is as well organized as Germany sitting on a 1-0 lead. Each club plays one match at home and one away. Most clubs play on Boxing Day and then again two days later. There are, however, two matches on the 27th, 29th and 30th so after Christmas you are covered until New Year's Eve.I'm going to make http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/epl-boxing-day-to-2010-preview.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-559985670031439737Thu, 24 Dec 2009 07:31:00 +00002009-12-24T00:10:16.236-08:00In a week that featured a midweek matchday, there were a lot of interesting results. Most surprising was probably Fulham getting a 3-0 home win against Manchester United. Fulham getting a win over Man U at Craven Cottage isn't too surprising by itself but the scoreline is. Granted, United have had a lot of injury issues lately, and the score was unfair but the result is still eye-opening. The http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/epl-pre-boxing-day-rankings-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-2506227481197898134Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:19:00 +00002009-12-22T15:04:18.896-08:00Boxing DayEnglish Premier LeagueThe English Premier League is unique among top flights in that they play a lot of matches between Christmas and the first few days of the year while most leagues are completely off. Most seasons a team will play on Boxing Day and then again just two days later. Some seasons there will be another match just 2 or 3 days after that so they are playing 3 league matches in 6 or 7 days. This year therehttp://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/effect-of-boxing-day-glut-of-matches.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-122963975034989477Sat, 19 Dec 2009 05:35:00 +00002009-12-18T21:42:45.319-08:00To be honest there aren't any big matches this weekend so I'll just give you the predictions of the stat-based model.Portsmouth - LiverpoolPortsmouth - 21%Liverpool - 53%Draw - 26%Aston Villa - Stoke CityAston Villa - 63%Stoke - 15%Draw - 22%Blackburn - TottenhamBlackburn - 25%Tottenham - 47%Draw - 28%Fulham - Manchester UnitedFulham - 22%Man United - 51%Draw - 27%Manchester City - SunderlandMan http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/epl-predictions.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-4733850329135406406Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:50:00 +00002009-12-14T20:34:51.018-08:00It's been a while since I wrote about the Bundesliga. In my last post on the subject, I noted that Leverkusen were at the top of the table and had played a very easy schedule. Based on that, I predicted that they would extend their lead which was then at 3 points. That hasn't happened. After drawing in Munich and crushing Stuttgart at home they have two disappointing draws - at Hannover and then http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/bundesliga-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-1061706759394582707Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:11:00 +00002009-12-14T14:56:18.277-08:00Real Madrid picked up a big win at the Mestalla, otherwise it was as expected near the top. The biggest story is probably Pepe being out for the rest of the year for Real Madrid.Here are the rankings using the system that only takes goals into account:GFR - Goals for rankGAR - Goals against rankEGD - expected goals if they played a new season at the level shown by the scorelines thus far.Here arehttp://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/la-liga-rankings.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-6402887378303895302Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:26:00 +00002009-12-14T13:34:05.766-08:00Here are the predictions for the midweek. There is a not unusual mix of some matches that should be close and others that should be less than competitive. Last weekend was full of surprises, we'll see what this week brings:Sunderland - Aston VillaSunderland: 36%Aston Villa: 34%Draw: 29%Birmingham - BlackburnBirmingham: 43%Blackburn: 29%Draw: 29%Bolton - West HamBolton: 38%West Ham: 33%Draw: 29%http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/epl-midweek-predictions.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-5816642711650481136Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:22:00 +00002009-12-14T13:02:29.674-08:00What a crazy week in the EPL. Every top team other than Arsenal disappointed. Arsenal are now back in the race as they will find themselves down just 3 if they can win their match in hand. Manchester United fans can look at it either way as they lost at home to a pretty good side in Aston Villa but only lost a point as Everton managed to get a draw at Stamford Bridge. Just when it was looking http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/updated-epl-rankings.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-6808867612648611523Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:25:00 +00002009-12-11T21:08:24.026-08:00This weekend has some pretty interesting matches. The highlight is Sunday's matchup between Liverpool and Arsenal at Anfield. Those teams both had title hopes at the beginning of the season. Liverpool would need an incredibly run and for several teams to fade to claw their way back into it and Arsenal in not quite the same situation but well out of it at the moment, especially with such a brutal http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/epl-weekend-preview.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-4130173334124163013Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:27:00 +00002009-12-07T15:46:57.680-08:00The league got a bit more interesting with Man City getting a big win over Chelsea. With their big win over West Ham Manchester United, with a completely decimated backline, are back to just 2 points off. Arsenal are still vaguely in the race, now 8 back with that match in hand. Chelsea are clearly still the favorites to win the league, but at least now we have something to talk about when it http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/epl-rankings-update-with-new-stat-based.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-3392028069463674752Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:12:00 +00002009-12-04T14:25:01.267-08:00BrazilCôte d'IvoireEnglandFranceGermanyItalyMexicoNetherlandsPortugalUnited StatesWorld Cup DrawI will be writing a lot more on the World Cup over time, but here are my initial thoughts on the draw.Winners:United States - It was close to a dream draw for the yanks. They missed out on South Africa, but England is one of the easier seeded teams to draw. The other two teams are the worst teams in their pots. There weren't many possible draws that have the US as second-best in the group, but http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/world-cup-draw.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-7200396965006519954Thu, 03 Dec 2009 09:34:00 +00002009-12-03T03:05:29.729-08:00foulsstatsI'll now continue the stat series by looking at fouls. Like corners and time of possession, about which I'll write in the future, fouls are often used as an indicator that one team was a lot better than the other in a match. A defender usually fouls a player with the ball because he cannot otherwise make a tackle. It is often because the attacker is making a run past the defender or receiving thehttp://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/stat-series-fouls.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-1944508210752544313Wed, 02 Dec 2009 10:33:00 +00002009-12-02T02:57:37.309-08:00SeedingWorld Cup DrawFIFA has announced the pots for the World Cup draw, with one major surprise. Instead of using the same type of formula they used last time, which I used in a past article to calculate the 7 seeded teams along with South Africa, they just used the FIFA rankings from last month. This meant that France dropped out and the Netherlands became seeded. That's a pretty big break from tradition as they'vehttp://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/fifa-announces-pots-for-draw.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1189693389095949677.post-7853026854682802413Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:42:00 +00002009-12-01T23:06:53.111-08:00Barcelona went back on top by virtue of their 1-0 win over Real Madrid. To be honest, Madrid far exceeded my expectations in the match. They actually outplayed Barcelona for long stretches, especially in the first half and Barça were fortunate in that Zlatan put away their only clear chance of the match. I expected it to be like last year when Barça played Real Madrid off the park both times. http://analyticalfootball.blogspot.com/2009/12/spanish-league-post-clasico-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jared)0