Analyze Trend

MTNL

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 07:08:00 +0000

In an interesting formation, MTNL has long term and short term support lines meeting at 170 level. One positive thing that happened on Friday was that bulls didn't allow the stock to fall below these levels. Even volume saw a rise which confirms the support at 170 level.

But keep in mind that the overall market is in a down-trend and its very difficult for one stock ot hold its rally when the whole market is falling. If the above mentioned support is maintained, and overall market sentiment remains bearish then our expectation is that MTNL will consolidate for a while.

On the other hand, if market bounces off on Monday then MTNL may start moving up.

Support

161, 155, 150

Resistance

180, 190

Overall market movement is very important for MTNL's move. Take a decision considering this factor.

Look at our analysis of NIFTY here

NIFTY for the week of 21-Jan-08

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 06:51:00 +0000

NIFTY bounced off an impotrant support of 5675 on friday. This indicates that bulls were ready to retaliate at 5675 level. If, on Monday, bulls again hold this level then NIFTY may retarce back till 5807, and then till 5906. But looking at the volume in the last 2-3 days, this bounce back seems unlikely.

On the other hand, if NIFTY breaks 5675 level, then we may see a fall till 5600. There is a good support present at 5600. But if this support is broken then next support is far below at 5400 levels.

We have been talking about the wedge that formed on the NIFTY over last couple of months and it seems that the wedge has broken from the down-side. This formation has next support at 5200.

Overall we don't have anything bullish about NIFTY other than the fact that NIFTY kept the 5675 level. This is very critical level and if breached will wipe off all past four months gain.

More about NIFTY

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:48:00 +0000

As we had mentioned in our last post, a red monday pulled NIFTY back to 5800 levels. This makes us publish the next level of support and resitance for NIFTY. So here we go

Resistance

6000, 6065, 6120

Support

5926, 5835, 5771, 5730

Other things to be noted and important are

NIFTY was successfully supported by the 50-day EMA today. If NIFTY closes above 5926 with a green day tomorrow that will signal a trend reversal.
The same 50-day EMA line, if breached will take NIFTY down to above mentioned support levels, with 50-day EMA line acting as a resistance.

NOTE - NIFTY has been range-trading for past several months. It reached the bottom of the range yesterday and a reversal from this point may take NIFTY to the upper end of the range which is near 6400-6500 levels.

NIFTY for the week of 14-Jan-2008

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 13 Jan 2008 02:11:00 +0000

Resistance

6250, 6275

NIFTY crossed the 21-day EMA, which was acting as a support for past several days. The 21-day EMA now can act as a resistance. NIFTY closed just below the 21-day EMA on friday. It needs to be seen if NIFTY successfully closes about the 21-day EMA in the comming sessions. A Red monday signals the weakness of NIFTY to cross the 21-day EMA line and can result in bearish signal.

Support

6170, 6150, 6120

The gap in NIFTY on intraday chart strongly supports NIFTY at 6170, where as other two supports are not so strong and should be used with caution.

Other observations

In our last week's post, we had mentioned that, on weekly chart, NIFTY is forming a wedge pattern. NIFTY failed to break the wedge in the last week and the result is that this week NIFTY will need more strength to break the wedge. If NIFTY successfuly closes above 6400+ in the coming week then that can signal that NIFTY has gained enough power to break the wedge positively. Understand the importance of this wedge, if broken, it can take NIFTY to 7000+ levels.

NIFTY for the week of 7-Jan-2008

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 22:05:00 +0000

Support – NIFTY should find major supports at 6215, 6165, 6040 and 5907

Resistance – NIFTY is standing at a point of resistance now.

Overall sentiment – As written above NIFTY is standing at a strong resistance. A green Monday with close above 6280 may trigger a rally, so keep a watch.

A red Monday with any close should be traded very carefully.

Infosys - More bottoms to come !!!

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 22:05:00 +0000

Infosys would soon complete 10 months in bearish trend. In these 10 months infosys was well bounded by the 200 day EMA (the thing red line). I have circled in red four occasions when infosys formed tops with 200 day EMA as resistance. Recent of these was in the last week when infosys started falling from a high of around 1830.

In this new downtrend, the scrip may find support at 1750 (thick blue line) if there is a spurt in volume in the coming sessions. If infosys breaks below 1750, then we may see this scrip going down till 1600 again.

NIFTY for the week of 31-Dec-2007

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 22:05:00 +0000

Based on different feedbacks, we will only be providing support/resistance levels and some additional technical indicator scenarios for NIFTY from this week. So whats there for the NIFTY in the coming week

Support – NIFTY should find major supports at 6040 followed by 6020 and a few minor supports between 6000 and 5900 (5975, 5925 and 5900)

Resistance – NIFTY will face resistance at 6110 and 6175.

Overall sentiment – If we look at the 30-min chart of NIFTY below then we can see that NIFTY bounced off its 20-day WMA with a white candle stick standing just above 20-day WMA. This is a bullish indicator. Even the Bollinger bands are contracting which again is a positive indicator. The only negative thing from the technical perspective is the formation of a Doji after a few white candlesticks. If NIFTY crosses 6110, then we can see it touching 6175.

One very interesting thing to note in the NIFTY daily chart below is that NIFTY seems to be forming an ascending wedge which may get completed in the month of Jan, if this wedge breaks out in an upward direction then we can see the continuation of the bullish treand for some more months.

NIFTY daily chart:

NIFTY 30-min chart:

Wipro to buy Capgemini

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 11:05:00 +0000

Wipro has plans to buy Capgemini. If the deal goes through, it should give a major boost to Wipro's revennues.

Read the details here

NIFTY for the week of 24-Dec-2007

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 23 Dec 2007 18:24:00 +0000

We saw some respite towards the last two sessions of the last week, barring that NIFTY saw all black days. Now NIFTY stands at a point where we can be little bit optimistic about the coming week.

Look at the NIFTY daily graph below, NIFTY has successfully tested the mid-term support (green line) for last two session, where was it has successfully broken the long-term support (red line). With this information we can say that NIFTY has a support at around 5700 and resistance at around 5900.

Here is the 15-min chart of last 10 days for NIFTY. Here again we see that NIFTY successfully tested the support in the range of 5720-5740 in the last session.

RSI is near 50 for both the daily and the 15-min chart, giving no clear-cut buy or sell signal. Our prediction is that NIFTY will be range-bound between 5700 and 5900 for the coming week.

On the negative side we have expiry of FnO section in this week as well FIIs armed with the new power short-selling. Any negative news, if triggers the FII short-selling then it may take NIFTY down this short term support. Below that NIFTY has support at 5500 and 5400.

Play wise.

Stocks to watch in the coming week

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 18:56:00 +0000

Following are some stocks worth watching in the coming week. This list is based on the technical analysis

Stock	Action	Resistance (Stock needs to close above this level to achieve the target)	Target
India Cement	Closed above the resistance level of 323 in last session.	320-325	360
JK Lakshmi	Bullish engulfing pattern and closed above resistance of 210 in the last session.	210	245
Khaitan Injdia	Bullish engulfing pattern and closed above resitance of 49 in the last session.	49	55/60
Lupin	Stock closed just below the resistance level of 645 in the last session. The volume has increased. Money is coming into this stock	645/730	730/800+
Orchid Chemicals	Has formed a symmetrical triangle	265	290+
SesaGoa	The stock closed just below the resistance level of 3900 and volume has increased in last few sessions	3900	4300

NIFTY for the week of 17-Dec-2007

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 13:52:00 +0000

Last week was quite dramatic for NIFTY and we saw several ups and downs. Last week we had mentioned a support for NIFTY in 6000-6020 range. Though NIFTY maintained that support twice, it could not bounce off from that support level and we still maintain the same support level for NIFTY in the coming week too, i.e. 6000-6020. On the 15 min chart, NIFTY has formed a descending triangle. The support for the descending triangle is at 6010-6020 level. If NIFTY breaks below this then in the short term we can see a downward journey till 5900-5910.

Coming to the technical parameters, NIFTY is standing just above this support line and there is no strength in volume to get NIFTY either below this support or away from this support. So our advice is to wait and watch the NIFTY moves for couple of sessions to come.

There is RSI failure swing – top formation in the making. RSI failed to break above 70% level. If NIFTY continues in its bullish fashion either for short term or long term, RSI will trigger a sell signal directly or through the RSI failure swing – top. It would be interesting to watch this happen.

In the end, if NIFTY breaks below 6000-6020 level then we can see downward movement first till 5910 and then till 5775. Play safe.

First chart is NIFTY daily chart and second chart is NIFTY 15 minutes chart

GAIL - Rally coming to an end

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 17:13:00 +0000

GAIL has broken out of cup and handle pattern. Going by the characteristics of the pattern the stock should come to a halt at around 540 before deciding on its next move.
The depth of cup is around 70 pts and 50 pts added to base of the handle give us an estimate of around 540 as next target for this bullish trend.

See the graph below.

Please double click on the graph to view it clearly.

NIFTY for the week of 10-Dec-2007

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 09 Dec 2007 11:44:00 +0000

We are not recommending the readers to take any positions in any stocks based on the views expressed here. Please make your trading decisions based on your own instinct.

NIFTY is again standing at cross-roads, uncertain about where to go. Two levels are very important at this juncture. The resistance level of 6000-6020, which NIFTY has successively failed to breach and a support level of 5900-5920, which is successfully tested by NIFTY once.

In the last session, bulls tried hard to break the resistance barrier of 6000 but they failed, though they were successful in keeping the NIFTY above previous close. Bears too tried hard to take NIFTY below previous close but failed again. A good sign here is that bears failed to form a doji.

Going by the technical indicators, we have a mix of scenario for the coming week. The accelerated volumes in the first few sessions of December are maintained, the money is flowing in the market (OBV is advancing). On the other side NIFTY is standing at the peak of resistance level (which it could not breach for the last couple of times), liquidity is drying (Bollinger bands are shrinking), bullish sentiment is weakening (+ve ADI is on decline and –ve ADI is neutral). So what to expect with such mixed sentiments in play?

Our take would be to wait a watch for the first session on Monday. If NIFTY crosses 6000-6020 level and nestles at a level above that then we are surely entering a bullish trend. On the downside we have a strong support in 5900-5920 range, if this support is breached then NIFTY can see a level of 5750-5800.

Please download the image to view properly.

SAIL - Breakout happened - Target 320

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 04:14:00 +0000

We are not recommending the readers to take any positions in any stocks based on the views expressed here. Please make your trading decisions based on your own instinct.

Yesterday SAIL broke out of the ascending triangle that it was forming over the last few days. Increased volume at the break-out supports the bullish trend. The near future target is 320. Keep a watch.

PS - If you are not able to view the image properly then please download the image.

Cup and Handle in IFCI - Target 135 over next week

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 05:56:00 +0000

We are not recommending the readers to take any positions in any stocks based on the views expressed here. Please make your trading decisions based on your own instinct.

IFCI is forming a perfect cup and handle pattern. The cup is complete and the Handle is halfway. As soon as the handle is completely formed, this stock should zoom to new levels. Expected target is 135.

Note - If you cannot view the image clearly, the please download the image.

NIFT Update for the week of 3-Dec-2007

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 17:09:00 +0000

We are not recommending the readers to take any positions in any stocks based on the views expressed here. Please make your trading decisions based on your own instinct.

After today's moves. NIFTY seems to be poised to cross 5950 in next session. We hope the NIFTY will cross 6000 soon.

Its range trading and bounced back from the lower range today. It may hit the upper range in tomorrow's session.

If you are not able to view this image properly, then please download the image.

NIFTY For the week of 4-Dec-2007

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 07:57:00 +0000

We are not recommending the readers to take any positions in any stocks based on the views expressed here. Please make your trading decisions based on your own instinct.

From the 15-min chart, its clear that NIFTY broke the symmetrical triangle in last couple of days. But the upward thrust given by this break-out seems to be over and NIFTY is in the mood of short term rest. This is a strong resistance at 5780 level and two times NIFTY failed in breaching this. Even if NIFTY breaches this level there is another strong resistance at 5835. If this level is broken then NIFTY can see 5900+.

On the down side NIFTY has good support at 5700 and 5650.
Note - If you are not able to view this image clearly, then please try downloading the image to your local computer.

Watch MTNL

noreply@blogger.com (Analyze Trend) — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 17:23:00 +0000

We are not recommending the readers to take any positions in any stocks based on the views expressed here. Please make your trading decisions based on your own instinct.

A clear-cut symmetrical triangle accompanied by the increasing volume may take this stock to the upper line of the triangle before it breaks out.
Keep a watch in the coming week.

Note - If you are not able to view this image clearly, then please try downloading the image to your local computer.