Perfect for the millions — young and old — who hate what’s going on but don’t think they can make a difference.

They can!

And if they’re a little bored or lonely or feeling unfulfilled, it could solve those problems, too.

2. How Russia Won, by David Korn: “The little-understood story of Putin’s secret campaign to subvert America.”

Carl knows this is a hoax, like climate change and Covid and the “affordability” crisis — Trump has the concept of a plan for great health care, and that’s good enough for him.  The Mueller Report was a witch hunt and a hoax and all those women who accused Trump of sexual harassment (and worse) were lying . . . so when Trump tells us that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was genius or that he’s not Putin’s puppet — that Hillary was Putin’s puppet — well, that’s good enough for MAGA and good enough, it seems, for Carl.  If you can’t trust Donald Trump to tell the truth, whom can you trust?

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A compelling narrative with the verve and twists of a spy novel—yet it’s all true—How Russia Won chronicles a deeply disturbing reality: Putin has succeeded in his twilight war against the United States by helping to land in the White House an agent of chaos, disruption, and authoritarianism who has exacerbated divisions within the United States, undermined American democracy, created conflict within the Western alliance and throughout the world, and diminished Washington’s standing across the globe. It’s a chilling account of Trump’s strange relationship with Putin and how both have gotten away with this assault on the United States.

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Just last week . . .

3. The BreakUp by Kurt Andersen.  I’m halfway through listening and, well, it’s great . . . imagining the country after it splits into two countries (80% of Utah, by territory, joins the Free American Republic but 80% of the people — city dwellers — choose to remain in the United States of America . . . and there’s a 180-year-old turtle whose memories we’ve been able to translate into English . . . ans so much more.

4. Good Morning Moon, wherein my friend of more than four decades, “the bestselling poet, novelist, and biographer” Brad Gooch, offers a “luminous memoir about the decision to start a family later in life” with his husband — no slouch in his own right — and the birth and raising of their two children.  Quite a change of pace from the three above.  A great listen.

Also:  Bill Maher on Genocide.  (Spoiler alert: it’s not genocide.)

I hand the microphone to them.

Join Indivisible!

Support the opposition!

Listen to Ben Wikler’s This Is the Plan: How to End America’s Meltdown and Save Democracy (at 1.2 or 1.3 speed) and then share it with everyone you know who gets how awful things are but doesn’t think he or she can do anything about it. 

They can! 

What a concept.

Sheldon Whitehouse on the Judiciary Committee.  Four devastating minutes.  Imagine that: a dignified, competent senator serious about the rule of law.

What a concept.

The view from Denmark.  Three heart-wrenching minutes.

Remember when we were the good guys?

AND NOW THE GOOD NEWS

Heather Cox Richardson: It feels like the MAGA movement is collapsing.

“The United States’ standing in the world has collapsed,” she says, “at the same time that the American economy that Donald Trump promised would so great is also in dire straits.”

Carl and millions like him believe Trump’s second term has proved wonderfully successful — as for Trump, it has been.  He’s made billions.

But millions more, who had high hopes when they reelected him, feel betrayed.

With any luck, they will join the huge blue wave — or at the very least, November 3, stay home.

We’re gonna win.

I’m serious.  You should really do this.

I believe it will leave you — as it has left me — raring for Part 2.

Part 2 is to share it with anyone you know who feels helpless or hopeless — whether it be a cynical young person or a despairing old person . . . or just the typical person who cares, sure, but doesn’t think he or she can really do anything. 

Listening to this book could totally lift their spirits, enrich their lives, and lead them to make a real difference.

Part 3 is to arm them with this just-released messaging guide.

Scores above 60 are good.

These 89 messages score way higher.

We’re gonna win!

CORRECTION: Yesterday’s 104-year-old kick-ass woman was fake (though not her facts).  My bad.

Today: This 104-year-old woman.  Damn she’s good.  Four minutes.  [UPDATE:  Good though she is, she’s fake.]

“Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I’ll show you a crook.” — Harry Truman

Join Indivisible!

Support the opposition!

> Paul Raushenbush an openly gay Baptist minister for the past early three decades, married with two kids — whose great-grandfathers, just so you know, were Mr. Justice Louis Brandeis, of the United States Supreme Court, on one side, and prominent Baptist theologian Walter Rauschenbusch on the other.  (The ‘Cs’ got dropped from Rauschenbusch somewhere along the line.)

> Senator Dr. Roger Marshall of Kansas, running for reelection, who recently gained national prominence for ‘unbelievably aggressive’ lawsuits against 700 of his patients over unpaid bills on which he charged 18% interest, 81 of whom he had arrested.  (And who as a senator voted to cut the medical insurance subsidies that make it possible for struggling patents to pay doctor bills.)

> Reverend Adam Hamilton, who married his high school sweetheart LaVon the week after graduation 44 years ago; founded with just four congregants 36 years ago what has grown to be the largest United Methodist church in the country, with 25,000 Kansans); and who is running to unseat Marshall.

So now you know the cast of characters.

Here’s what Paul Raushenbush posted on Facebook after attending a Hamilton fundraiser in New York Tuesday night.  (They had not met before.)  David Letterman is the one with the beard.

Nice, no?

And here’s what Senator Marshall released the next day.

Apparently, his team constantly surfs the web for any reference to his opponent.

For the record:

The fundraiser was not in Washington; Raushenbush was not the host; he is not “crazy”; he is not “a maniac.”

He is, rather, the widely-respected president of the Interfaith Alliance — though it’s true that he supports what he calls “the God-given dignity of all people, including Americans who are trans and members of the drag community.” 

“I find inspiration and joy from my friendships with people who are different from me,” he says.  “Advocating for their equality and dignity is a reflection of my own deeply-held faith.” 

Is that crazy?  Or is it profoundly American: advocating for the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness however you find it, so long as you’re not hurting anyone else.

Marshall rarely exposes himself to everyday Kansans.  When he did recently — in a “ruby red” county — his constituents booed and shouted “shame”.

Hamilton, by contrast, is hugely accessible, decent, and comfortable to talk to.

He’s going to win.

The kick-ass woman, meanwhile — if you’ve not yet seen this clip — is Representative Joyce Beatty of Ohio, who sits on the Kennedy Center board. 

The first minute or two will delight you.  

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Thursday 9/10 we went net short because of inflation, interest rate, political, geopolitical, and AI risks.

Negatives

• Inflation is above historical inflection levels. Historically, inflation has been the main inflector;
• World oil demand exceeds supply by about 1.5 to 5.5 mbpd, probably about 3-4. Inventories are low and decreasing. Oil prices, already too high, probably go higher because of Middle East and Black Sea restrictions.  Higher oil prices probably push up inflation and interest rates;
• Interest rates are near levels which have sometimes inflected the economy and stocks. Large federal, private ( especially datacenter), and world borrowing probably push interest rates higher;
• P/Es are high. Forward P/Es are within norms but based on a second year of very aggressive accounting and growth assumptions;
• Debt/GDP levels are high;
• AI token and GPU rental prices are decreasing faster than revenues are increasing;
• Stocks favor Republican pro-growth policies and will likely sell off as Democrats are perceived likely to win the mid-term or when they win the mid-terms;
• Geopolitics are unstable; and
• September to mid or late October has been the worst stock time of year, especially during mid-term elections

Positives

• Real GDP is strong. But it is partially based on heavy federal and datacenter borrowing;
• Earnings will be very strong y/y, but down q/q.  EPS will likely beat estimates.  Guidance may be mixed, very positive yet with many cautions; and
• Stocks have done well under divided government or Republican 3^rd years.

Mixed or Uncertain

• EPS accounting includes legal but Ponzi-like circular revenues and gains from companies partially capitalized by the hyperscalers from whom they buy services. Much expense is “construction in progress” and not yet depreciated but soon will be ahead.
• Republicans could win the mid-terms.
• With AI leaders (Amodei, Altman, Musk) and Democrats calling for an AI and data center slow-down, growth may slow or crash.

We evaluate the above as correction or bearish.

Hook & Co.

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Trump says the negativity is overdone — it’s going to be okay.

Sound familiar?

Peggy Noonan nails it: Pause AI for Humanity’s Sake

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When something speeds up and gets out of control, it isn’t alarmist to demand prudence and deliberation.

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The U.S. and China must rise to the occasion — and fast.

And there is a glimmer of hope.

From Foreign Affairs: The Emerging U.S.-China Détente

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A Confident Beijing and a Pragmatic Washington Can Get Along

It now appears plausible that bilateral relations have turned a corner and entered a more stable phase. . . .

The peak tensions of the past eight years may well be receding.

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Corralling artificial intelligence somehow must be priority number one.

THIS IS THE PLAN

Assuming we do find a way to harness A.I. — and rein in The Nerd Reich — we have a huge challenge to get the country back on track.  I cannot recommend highly — or often — enough that you listen to or read Ben Wikler’s This Is the Plan . . . and then give it to every concerned person you know.  Young or old.

Because if it’s a good idea to hand everybody a check for $5,000, isn’t it twice as good an idea to hand everybody $10,000?

That’s what all our candidates should promise to do if we win the House and Senate!

If Trump thinks $10,000 is too much, he can simply promise to veto or pare it back when we pass it.  Stingy Don.

When the press asks where we plan to get all that money to give away, we can say:

“The same place Trump got the money to give everybody the $2,000 checks he promised the last time.”

And when the press pushes back, noting that he never did give anyone those promised $2,000 checks, we can say, “Well . . . duh!”

Or we can say, “Don’t worry, we have the concept of a plan.”

Or we can say, “We’re going to get every penny of it by raising tax rates on corporations and billionaires and by closing tax loopholes that only benefit the rich.”  (Which would be the only defensible way to get it.)

Or we can say, “Look.  Obviously, we’re no more serious about this than Trump is.  He just dangles it out there as a bribe, as he dangled giving everyone “terrific health care at a tiny fraction of the cost.”  Or dangled “lower prices on Day One.”  Or promised to cherish his first wife “until death did them part.”  And his second.  And his third.

Once he gets what he wants, what does he care?  He breaks his promises on virtually everything, every time.  (He did close the border; but is he really deporting just the worst of the worst?)

On the remote chance he’s serious about the $5,000, where would he get it?

Clearly not from taxing billionaires or corporations. 

He’d just add it to the National Debt.  Because if Republicans have proved anything since Reagan began ballooning it, it’s that they are the “borrow and spend” party.  Forty trillion?  Fifty trillion?  Who cares, so long as they can cut taxes on the wealthy donors who keep them in power.  

His other reason for dangling this phony bribe is to deflect attention. 

From the Epstein files.  From groceries and gas.  From the millions about to lose health insurance.  From the rural hospitals soon to close.  From his staggering corruption.  From his disastrous war.  

NO KINGS! 

Saturday, October 17!

Ezra Levin lays out the case for your participation (2½ minutes).

Here’s the website:  No Kings Vote Early.

KANSAS

Kansas’s two-term Democratic governor has endorsed Hamilton — obviously — but get this:  Former two-term Republican Governor Bill Graves just endorsed him, too.

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For the last six years, Sen. Roger Marshall has turned his back on Kansas. In contrast, Adam Hamilton stands as a bulwark of kindness, humility and service to others. It is for those reasons, and many more, that I believe Kansas should send Adam Hamilton to the U.S. Senate, and I am proud to endorse him. . . .

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We’re gonna win!

*Well, not seriously.  But maybe?