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Is C.J. Cron on the Trading Block?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 29 Jan 2017 04:54:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

“Don’t be fooled by the rock pile that I’ve got! I’m still, I’m still C.J. on the block!” – Alternative J-Lo Lyrics

On January 19th, 2017, news broke out of Caracas, Venezuela, via Efrain Zavarce on Twitter, that free agent infielder Luis Valbuena was on the verge of signing with the Angels on a multi-year deal.

Days passed before the signing was officially confirmed with the two sides agreeing to a 2-year, $14.5M deal with a mutual option, per Jeff Fletcher, worth an additional $8.5M-$10M (based on PA’s) for a potential total contract of 3 years, $23M.

It was initially thought that Valbuena would act as a platoon partner to hitters like Danny Espinosa and Yunel Escobar but shortly after the signing announcement GM Billy Eppler dropped a small bombshell, declaring that Luis would receive bats at 1B in 2017.

Scene: C.J. Cron walks into his new clubhouse, “…. (Record scratch screech) …. You’re probably wondering how I got here?”

If you are a fan of the AngelsWin.com Primer Series (and frankly who isn’t, am I right? Amirite?!?!?) you may recall that in Part VI, First Base, the possibility of a Cron trade was proposed, in part, because C.J.’s offensive production could be replicated easily through free agency or trade.

Now certainly Billy Eppler does not have to trade Cron, as C.J. has one more Minor League option left which would allow the Angels to send him down to Salt Lake City to start 2017. Retaining him would give the Angels a tremendous amount of flexibility in the upcoming season and would give them solid options if Albert Pujols starts the year on the disabled list.

On the other side of the coin, C.J. does have a substantial amount of trade value primarily due to his four remaining years of control, his above average offensive production, and his very reasonable projected salary. The latter in particular will be attractive to small market teams and clubs with tight payroll space.

The free agent and trade markets this year had (and still have) a glut of corner infield bats, particularly 1B types, which created a difficult signing environment due to an abnormally large supply with a large but not equitable demand. Several teams including the Indians, Blue Jays, and Phillies, for instance, have already locked up many of the better hitters that were available. This leaves the Angels with a favorable market for Cron, due to his youth, ability, and price, but an unfavorable market in terms of demand as there are few teams left in need of his services.

In fact when you examine 1B and DH needs in both Leagues it becomes patently clear that there are perhaps only three teams left, the Royals, Rockies, and Rays, with a possible need for C.J.’s services. It is certainly possible that another team could enter the picture but they would have to make space for Cron by moving one of their current slated options off of 1B or DH.

In order to understand C.J.’s trade market we need to know how much surplus value he has. Using a rudimentary $/WAR system you can determine a ballpark number for Cron’s surplus value as seen below:

C.J.’s estimated salary consists of the $550,000 he will make in 2017 and the projected arbitration salaries of $3.5M, $6M, and $10.5M he will make in 2018-2020. Remember that sluggers like him are often heavily rewarded in the current arbitration process.

Also, as part of this simple model, we have used a base free agent $/WAR starting value of $8,531,710, a carryover value from last year’s FA market, for 2017 and increased it by a standard 10% per year to determine future $/WAR values for 2018-2020. Again this is a rough approximation method; take it with a grain of salt.

After that it is simply adding in his projected WAR value of 1.5 WAR across all four seasons (this assumes no further improvement by Cron), multiplying by each individual year’s $/WAR value, adding them up and subtracting out his estimated salary to arrive at his full Net Worth of nearly $39M.

This basic model is good for getting a feel for relative values of players on the market but it does not encapsulate certain, more complex, economic, positional, and market factors that MLB teams consider in their valuations.

More importantly it is not the only way to look at C.J.’s value. For instance Luis Valbuena, who just signed for an average annual value of $7.67M per season, is a pretty equivalent player to Cron. You could point to Valbuena’s AAV as the marker for C.J.’s yearly value which would actually lower his surplus value too approximately $31M-$32M give or take.

In the end we will settle for a surplus value of $35M for the purposes of this article. However this only has meaning for a team that has a real need for C.J.’s services at 1B or DH. For instance the Reds already have Joey Votto so from a performance perspective it would make zero sense for them to acquire C.J. unless they are tearing down the team for a rebuild and are moving Votto this season.

Fortunately for the Angels the three teams mentioned above do have a need so let us examine each one and talk about a potential return. This will be a purely speculative exercise but it can start a conversation about realistic expectations in any potential Cron trade.

Remember that the Angels could still use another rotation and bullpen arm plus they could still choose to upgrade at catcher and possibly 3B as well so those are the needs we will focus on.

Royals

To start off we will take a look at Kansas City which has apparently determined to make one last World Series run before they lose a significant number of high-profile players to free agency after next year including CF Lorenzo Cain, 1B Eric Hosmer, and 3B Mike Moustakas.

Currently the Royals depth chart shows Cheslor Cuthbert as their lead DH option, followed by the recently waiver-claimed Peter O’Brien, and RF Jorge Soler. Eric Hosmer is listed as the primary option at 1B, followed by 2B Whit Merrifield, but Eric rated out as one of the worst defenders at 1B in 2016 making him a possible candidate to slide over to their DH spot.

In 2016, Kansas City ranked 14th vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 100 and ranked 27th vs. RHP with a wRC+ of 84. Clearly they need and want help offensively against right-handers and someone like C.J. could certainly aid them in that department.

So what do the Royals have that the Angels might want?

In a perfect world the first name that would roll off my tongue is 3B Mike Moustakas. He is in his last year of team control and, as noted above, will hit free agency after this season.

There could be a scenario where the Royals would trade him for C.J. and either move Cheslor Cuthbert over to 3B, his natural position, or, perhaps, the Angels could add 3B Yunel Escobar, who is also in his last year of control, to the trade and the Royals could simply option Cuthbert down to the Minors as a depth move to keep giving him regular at-bats in preparation to take over the hot corner next year.

Beyond Moose, the Angels would probably have interest in one of Kansas City’s starting pitchers. The name that really stands out to me is LHP Matthew Strahm who pitched well out of their bullpen in 2016 and is a capable starting rotation candidate.

There is also an outside possibility Eppler might be eyeing left-hander Mike Minor too but he is recovering from Tommy John Surgery and only pitched a total of 42.1 innings in 2016. He is probably a bullpen candidate more so than a starting option making him a less likely nominee overall.

Beyond Moustakas, Strahm, and Minor there is not much more that would likely be of interest to the Angels on the Major League roster. The Royals bullpen is currently a bit thin in depth (likely another reason they want Mike Minor pitching in relief) and the rest of their available position players do not match up well with Eppler’s needs.

The Angels might have interest in prospects like RHP Alec Mills, LHP Eric Skoglund, or OF Jorge Bonifacio but Billy probably has his sights set higher with the Royals.

Based on that let us look at both of the Mike’s and Matt’s relative surplus value:

As you can see this is why young prospects like Matthew Strahm are the bread and butter of all MLB teams, as the value you can potentially get from one moderately successful MLB player like him is significant.

Strahm’s valuation is probably a fairly accurate one from this point forward in strict terms of $/WAR. We should note though that most prospects like him will NOT be valuated that high at this point in their careers.

Only the most elite prospects in baseball will have a valuation close to the $75M listed above so, in reality, Strahm, at this point in time only, is probably worth closer to $30M-$40M simply because he is not a proven, tested entity in the Major League scene. For the purposes of this article we will assume a value of $35M which seems reasonable for the here and now, preseason 2017.

One year of a 3-WAR Mike Moustakas seems reasonable at an approximate $17M valuation too. Steamer estimates 3.1 WAR from him for 2017 even off of an injury plagued season so the 3 WAR input above seems acceptable.

Minor who, as a reliever and coming off a partial season after Tommy John Surgery and a shoulder issue, is marked at ½ WAR, working out of the bullpen, actually has a negative valuation so he would be a big gamble for Eppler if he targeted him in trade.

If the Angels were to entertain discussions with the Royals it would likely revolve around a Cron for Strahm or Cron for Moustakas deal.

A straight up trade of C.J. for LHP Matthew Strahm would make a fair amount of sense for both sides. The Royals can probably afford to part with one starter (which may be the reason they acquired Karns in the first place) and the Angels can afford the luxury of moving Cron, now that Valbuena is in the fold.

However it is very possible that Billy Eppler has greater interest in Mike Moustakas. Not only is Moose an above average hitter he is also a good defender at 3B which is a stated goal for the team. He only has one year of control but he seems like a very likely target in free agency next offseason for the Halos, so bringing him into the fold now would give Eppler and Scioscia a “test trial” look at a player they may want to invest in long term.

Over the last two years, Moose, in a limited sample size, has reduced his strikeout rate, generated a significant increase in hard contact, raised his HR/FB ratios, has become less of a pull hitter and more of an all-fields approach guy, and has made great strides in hitting both left-handed and right-handed pitching. He appears to be on the verge of really hitting his stride and achieving his full potential.

It is possible that the Angels could convince the Royals to part with one year of Moose and six years of Strahm for four years of Cron, one year of Escobar, six years of a left-handed hitting utility player like Sherman Johnson (or Kaleb Cowart or Nolan Fontana) who could platoon as needed with Merrifield and Cuthbert next year and beyond, and perhaps a right-handed reliever like Mike Morin (2-4 years based on performance) or Deolis Guerra (3-5 years based on performance) for instance. If Eppler wanted he could add one or more additional prospects to sweeten the deal.

Kansas City would get a long term power option that would improve their team offensive production against right-handed pitching, a temporary one year replacement third baseman in Yunel to give Cuthbert more development time, a utility option in Johnson (or Cowart/Fontana) that can play good defense at 2B and 3B with another left-handed bat to platoon against RHP, and a mid-inning reliever to fill out their bullpen. The Angels upgrade for one year at 3B defensively (and probably offensively) and add a nice left-handed arm to their rotation for 2017 and beyond.

If Eppler managed this one it would be an impressive moment. Some may argue that the price of pitching is high this offseason but there is also an argument to be made for positional and payroll needs as well which are also big drivers of front office decisions particularly for smaller market teams like the Royals.

Rockies

A while back Colorado made a surprising move to sign OF/INF Ian Desmond to a large $70M contract in order to play first base. Even further back, than that, the Rockies were heavily rumored to be shopping one of their outfielders as well.

The idea of pouring that much money into an athletic player like Desmond to play first base seems pretty ludicrous on the surface. The thought of course is that the Rockies will move someone like Charlie Blackmon in trade for other areas of need and then move Ian into center field.

This of course makes a great deal of sense (but hey Colorado does not have a very glorious, recent history of good moves so…) and the side effect of a Blackmon trade/Desmond move is that the Rockies would now need an everyday 1B (or platoon partner). Enter the Angels and C.J. Cron.

For 2016, the Rockies were ranked 25th in wRC+ vs. LHP (84) and ranked 16th in wRC+ vs. RHP (96). A hitter like C.J. would certainly improve their numbers against the latter and be around team average against the former.

In this scenario, beyond the need for a 1B, they may want to acquire a veteran catcher as both Wolters and Murphy have little Major League experience. Also the Rockies might want to upgrade over their utility infielder Adames who has shown poorly against RHP so far in his career. Finally the Rockies may be looking for additional rotation help, possibly a left-handed option but that is speculation on my part.

Clearly the Angels have Cron to offer for the former. Carlos Perez (~$30M in surplus value) may be of interest to the Rockies, or not, but it is unclear. The Angels currently have Pennington (~ $5M), Cowart (~$10M), Johnson (~$20M), and Fontana (~$10M) as utility options so they can afford to deal from depth. In terms of LHP the Angels could offer someone like Nate Smith but that would drain from our own depth in that department.

On the Angels side Eppler probably would love to acquire a starter, bullpen piece, or catcher from the Rockies. Players like LHP Tyler Anderson, LHR Chris Rusin, RHP Tyler Chatwood, RHP German Marquez, LHR Jake McGee, and C Tony Wolters are all possibilities. Here are their projected $/WAR values over their remaining years of control:

Clearly there are some disparities here that need to be addressed before proceeding.

Tyler Anderson is a 1st round draft pick and he does have a bright future but his actual trade value, right now, in 2017 is a fraction of the projected $108M listed above. Realistically his value is probably closer to $40M-$55M, give or take, due to his very limited MLB playing time. We will use $50M for this discussion.

Three years of Rusin, as a mid-innings reliever, and one year of Chatwood seem priced appropriately in the numbers above so we will let them be.

German Marquez, also a valued prospect, has very little MLB experience so his trade value, in preseason 2017, is also lower. Realistically he is probably worth about $30M-$35M in total value at this point in time. We will use $35M for this article.

McGee, based on his actual 2016 performance and his 2017 projection, makes sense but then, if you consider that if he had been available on the free agent market and had signed a one year deal, he probably would have received $8M-$12 or so from some team if he had been available, so we will use $10M as his value.

Finally Wolters, who only has one year of MLB experience under his belt and was only recently claimed off of waivers a year ago, probably does not have the full value listed above. Realistically, based on his pitch-framing success, he probably would be valued at about $20M at this point in time and that is what we will use here.

So if we are just talking about trading Cron, Anderson is almost certainly off limits. In fact Tyler may be unavailable period as he is the Rockies only lefty in their rotation as it is currently constructed.

A straight up trade of Cron for German Marquez might be achievable for both sides as the Rockies also have right-hander Jeff Hoffman available to join the rotation. This is a distinct possibility.

Beyond that any remaining combination may prove problematic to execute without the Angels or Rockies adding in other players and prospects or possibly involving a 3rd team in the trade. For instance Colorado will not move Wolters if they do not get Perez or another catcher back from a 3rd party.

Basically a trade with the Rockies will likely be a 3-way deal if it happens. It is easy to see, for example, a team like the Cubs, who reportedly expressed interest in Blackmon earlier in the offseason, get involved in a deal like this.

For example the Rockies could send Blackmon (~$30M in value) to Chicago and McGee ($10M) to the Angels, the Angels could send Cron ($35M) and Pennington ($5M) to the Rockies, and the Cubs could send two prospects like OF Mark Zagunis (~$20M) and RHR Felix Pena (~$10M) to the Angels. There are too many permutations and possibilities with too many teams, to list here, but you get the idea and can substitute in your preferred choices.

One final thought here is that the Angels could deal Carlos Perez (~$30M), rather than Cron, to the Rockies instead. In fact the Angels could send Perez and a utility player like Sherman Johnson to the Rockies and, as part of a 3-way trade, the Rockies could send Blackmon to the Cubs and McGee to us, and the Cubs could send Zagunis and Pena. The Rockies may not be comfortable with essentially two rookies behind the dish to start the season and acquiring Perez would allow them to start Murphy in the Minors to act as depth.

This would allow the Angels to deal Cron to one of the other teams listed in this article to fill out our rotation for instance. As indicated there are so many possibilities it is difficult to examine them all.

Rays

Finally we come to the Rays who have already made a series of moves designed to allow them to compete in 2017 and, as reported recently on MLBTradeRumors.com, have shown an interest in adding a big bat to their lineup.

Adding offense makes some sense as the Rays ranked 11th in wRC+ (101) versus LHP and ranked 14th in wRC+ (98) versus RHP in 2016. A hitter like C.J. would improve the latter quite a bit (but damage the former if he does not improve).

When you examine the Rays depth chart there is very little that needs improvement other than 2B. Likely Tampa wants to slide Brad Miller over to 2B (he is a former SS) and add a bat at 1B rather than dip into the 2B market but they certainly have multiple options here to address their roster. We will proceed with the assumption that a productive 1B bat is needed, particularly against RHP.

Based on that what do the Rays have that the Angels need?

RHP Jake Odorizzi would likely pique Billy Eppler’s interest as he has three years of arbitration control remaining and is projected, per MLBTradeRumors.com, to make $4.6M in 2017, which is favorable to the Angels payroll situation and solidly fills an area of need.

Another obvious candidate is RHP Alex Cobb who will make $4.2M in his last year of team control in 2017 before he hits free agency.

The Angels would love to get LHP Blake Snell but frankly he is the only lefty projected to pitch in the Rays rotation and he likely costs more than Eppler can pay in all frankness.

Beyond those starters the Angels might have some level of interest in RHR Alex Colome, RHR Brad Boxberger, RHR Danny Farquhar, RHR Erasmo Ramirez, and LHR Xavier Cedeno among others but it seems unlikely that the Rays will give up any of those players if they are trying to win in 2017.

Beyond those MLB players, the Angels might have interest in some of the following prospects too: RHP Brent Honeywell (unlikely), RHP Jacob Faria, RHP Chih-Wei Hu, RHP Jaime Schultz, and SS Adrian Rondon among others.

So based on all of this a straight up trade of RHP Jake Odorizzi (~$29M) for 1B C.J. Cron (~$35M) looks pretty good on paper even if you add in a 20% premium on pitching in this year’s market. This trade really relies on the Rays willingness to part with him and it seems like they would rather move Cobb, who is in his last year of control, over Jake, making this trade less likely overall but not impossible. Its simplicity is its strength.

RHP Alex Cobb (~$10M) strikes me as the pitcher the Rays most desire to move and, considering how Eppler has been taking the “two birds, one stone” approach to some of his trades this offseason, it seems more likely that the Angels might find common ground on Cobb than any other pitcher the Rays have on their roster.

There is a scenario here where Eppler trades Cron for Cobb and perhaps one of their high quality relievers or a nice mid-tier to upper-tier pitching or hitting prospect (or both possibly). Alex has a career 52.5% GB% which would fit well into Eppler’s strategy of putting the ball on the ground and excellent infield defense.

If this happens expect the Angels to acquire Alex Cobb (~$10M), a reliever like Xavier Cedeno (~$10M) with three years of control left, and perhaps a low to mid-tier prospect for C.J. Cron (~$35M). The Angels could add in a utility middle infielder to the deal as Nick Franklin hasn’t exactly been a shining example of defensive talent or they could add another player or prospect to extract the talent that they really need and want from the Rays in this potential deal.

Beyond Cobb they could try to do a swap of Cron for Honeywell straight up and that would be a fair deal overall but the Rays rely heavily on their farm system and trading away a future middle or front of the rotation starter like him would be a leap of faith for Tampa’s investment in the 2017 season that they may not be able to afford to take.

Conclusion

First of all it seems unlikely (not impossible of course) that a C.J. Cron trade will happen soon. The Angels probably want to see how Pujols progresses in his recovery before trading away a needed replacement. Of course there is nothing stopping Billy Eppler from trading C.J. and simply signing one of the remaining free agent bats on a one year deal so there are options for the team.

Out of the three teams mentioned above it seems like the Royals and Rays are a little bit more likely trade suitors than the Rockies based on the aforementioned fact that any likely deal with Colorado would probably need a third party involved which makes any negotiations more complex. Not impossible mind you just that there are more moving parts.

The bottom line is that the Angels not only have time on their side they do not have to trade Cron to complete their offseason. However if they want to maximize their chances of competing in 2017 moving C.J. will probably bring back the pitching that our rotation and bullpen need to compete.

Personally the author would like to see a deal with the Royals first (Strahm in particular), then the Rays (Cobb plus one of their relievers and a prospect), and then the Rockies (the three way trade with the Cubs to acquire McGee, Zagunis, and Pena). All three suitors have their plusses and minuses but all of them will add temporary and long term value to the team in all likelihood so they are all good choices in the end.

Angelswin.com 2017 Season Primer Part XIII: Right Field

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Fri, 13 Jan 2017 17:22:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, Part VII here, Part VIII here, Part IX here, Part X here, Part XI here, and Part XII here.

Let me pose a question to you the fans: Did the disaster of the 2016 season give you digestive problems such as nausea, loss of appetite, motion sickness, or even pain?

If you said yes, please let me recommend, for you and the Angels, a healthy dose of ginger in the 2017 season.

Our favorite redheaded right fielder will return for another season of Gold Glove-caliber defense and an incrementally improved offensive profile to hit in the middle of Mike Scioscia’s lineup.

Kole, in 2017, will be entering his fourth year of team control and his second year of arbitration control as a Super Two player (meaning instead of three years of arbitration he receives four years). Calhoun, per MLBTradeRumors.com, projects to receive $6.3M for the 2017 season.

This year’s salary will not be a problem for Billy Eppler to incorporate into team payroll but the Angels, after this season, will need to seriously consider reaching a decision regarding both Kole and Garrett Richards escalating salaries.

If Calhoun and Richards play for the entire season without injury both could receive raises for 2018 that would bring their salaries up to the $10M-12M range, which would decrease flexibility next year. Eppler can accommodate it, particularly if he cuts payroll in other areas, but it may be best to consider either extending Kole or consider trading him.

Based on long-term payroll and the window of contention we are in with Trout, buying out Calhoun’s remaining arbitration years with perhaps at least one option year would allow the Angels to stabilize their payroll while retaining the veteran Kole through his age 31 (or even 32 or 33 if we buy out one or two free agency years) season.

Once the 2017 season concludes it would not be surprising to see the Angels offer Calhoun a 2-year/$25M-30M, 3-year/$45M-50M, or even 4-year/$65M-70M extension contract. It would give Kole his first really big payday and provide his family with long-term financial security, while for the team it would solidify their outfield situation for the next handful of years while providing team payroll constancy over the same period.

If the Angels choose to go the trade route after 2017, Calhoun could certainly bring in one or more prospects or MLB players but we would then have to fill the hole and the production that he provided which is not insignificant, making continuing arbitration payments or an extension more palatable for Billy Eppler if he cannot acquire an adequate replacement outfielder.

Speaking of production, Kole, in 2016, had a tidy .271/.348/.438 slash line with the aforementioned high quality defense manning right field. Although he hit less home runs than he did in 2015, he created more runs with a wRC+ of 118 versus the 104 from the previous season. Part of those home runs were actually converted to doubles (23 in 2015 vs. 35 in 2016) which increased his slugging percentage slightly last season.

Also in 2015, per FanGraphs Jeff Zimmerman in a spreadsheet found here, Kole Calhoun had a corrected average exit velocity of 83.1 miles per hour. However in 2016 that number rose 3.7 mph to 86.8. Additionally the average launch angle off of his bat crept up slightly from 11 degrees in 2015 to 14.1 degrees in 2016.

FanGraphs batted ball data concurs with the exit velocity assessment showing that in 2015 Kole had a 28% Hard hit percentage and in 2016 it jumped up to 35.5% which is a marked improvement. Also you see an increase in Calhoun’s fly ball percentage as it jumped from 35.4% in 2015 to 39.9% in 2016.

If that increase in exit velocity holds for 2017 you would expect to see Kole’s BABIP remain steady around his 2016 number of .309 because he his hitting the ball harder which makes it more difficult for any defenders to not only reach it but handle it if they do manage to glove it. Exit velocity is a good indicator of extra base hit potential.

Another more important item is Calhoun’s strikeout rate coming in nearly 3% lower than his career rate in 2016 (17.6% vs. 20.3%). Not only did he lower it he also posted his highest walk rate in his Major League career coming in at a tidy 10%.

It feels like Kole, in his third full season of plate appearances in the Majors, is taking a small but important step forward in the evolution of his offensive profile.

Considering that he will probably move to the middle of the order in 2017 it will be important for Calhoun to provide a balanced approach at the plate because he will be asked to put on many hats as a run creator and producer next year. His ability to provide a quality at-bat and to spray singles and doubles all over the field will be a critical component for the team’s success.

Look for Kole to be a stabilizing influence on both sides of the ball and to take a larger role as a team leader in 2017. He has earned not only the fans respect but his teammates as well and he is a vital component to our success in winning a championship.

A Hypothetical Case for Matt Wieters

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 12 Jan 2017 17:13:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

I will preface this article by stating that, in the past, I have not been a fan of signing the Orioles former rising star, he just seemed to be missing key components, such as pitch framing ability, good career offensive numbers against RHP, and the previous Tommy John Surgery on his throwing arm gave me concerns about his durability.

However if you look deeper at his numbers and his performances in 2015 and 2016, you see the possible makings of a trend that may be enticing to Billy Eppler and the 2017 Angels squad.

First let us examine Matt’s defensive numbers as seen in the table below:

There are a couple of interesting items to talk about here.

Matt’s pitch framing was actually good earlier in his career (2010-2012) but fell off in recent years. It is possible that he could work on this part of his game and improve but he will likely never be an elite pitch framer. He probably will not hurt a team too dramatically in this department.

Obviously the 2014 CS% of 8% is an outlier. That was the year he tore his UCL and ultimately required TJS so his career CS% of 33% is probably a much more reliable number in regard to his ability to control the running game.

It is not fully shown here but from 2010-2012, the Fielding Bible loved his Defensive Runs Saved numbers, averaging over 13 runs saved over that 3-year period. It is not a total stretch to believe that Wieters can reclaim some of that former glory as he is further removed from his injury. FanGraphs consistently gave him positive DEF scores over the years with some large variance year to year.

On the offensive side there are some really interesting details that may be a trend or could simply be an outlier.

First let us look at his 2015, 2016, and career batted ball numbers:

The first thing that leaps off the page is the dramatically high line drive percentages over the last two years. They are significantly higher than his career numbers which indicates a clear improvement, similar to Cameron Maybin, in hitting mechanics and/or his approach at the plate. This is definitely a plus for any acquiring team.

Additionally Matt has made improvements in his all-fields approach and ability to hit line drives up the middle of the field. More importantly he does this from both sides of the plate which is another added plus to his offensive profile.

Wieters hard contact percentage has also improved against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons. Combined with his exit velocity increase of approximately 1.5 mph in 2016 over the previous year, you begin to see the signs of a player who is recovering and improving after a serious injury in 2014.

Beyond the batted ball data, Matt had mixed actual results from 2015-2016 that may have concealed the improvements in his batted ball profile:

If you stare at the chart too long you may begin to feel like you are in choppy sea waters. There are spurts of leaps and stutters over the last two years but the general trend seems to be heading in a positive direction.

In 2015 you can see the impact of his high line drive percentages in his BABIP. He did better against RHP that year but his overall contact rate both in (Z-Cont %) and out (O-Cont %) of the zone was lower than his career average which is reflected in his higher strikeout rates.

The following year, in 2016, he significantly lowered his strikeout rates and saw a corresponding increase in contact percentage but unfortunately more of that contact was outside the zone (i.e. chasing pitches he should not chase). This led to some of his BABIP issues and poor contact from the right side of the plate which resulted in more outs.

So it appears that Wieters is fundamentally sound and, other than the arm issue, durable behind the plate. He will be a slight negative in terms of pitch framing with possible room for improvement but the most value he will bring is with his bat which is above average against LHP and appears to be improving to league average versus RHP, which, for a catcher, is quite good.

In terms of a fit with the Angels, Eppler and Scioscia could roll out Matt against RHP’s and have Maldonado hit against his more dominant side versus LHP’s. On the days Martin catches they could slide Wieters over to 1B to platoon with C.J. Cron who is dominant against RHP but has faltered versus LHP so far in his career.

The platoon at catcher would move from a Perez/Maldonado combination (approximately a 76/95 wRC+ split for RHP/LHP) to a Wieters/Maldonado tandem (approximately a 90/95 wRC+ split for RHP/LHP). Also the full-time C.J. Cron 1B scenario (approximate 119/91 wRC+ RHP/LHP split) would move to a Cron/Wieters platoon (approximate 119/114 wRC+ RHP/LHP split).

This would be an upgrade over Perez against RHP without a doubt. The overall impact to offense is slight but noticeable providing better balance to the lineup.

MLBTradeRumors.com estimated in early December that Matt would receive a 3-year, $39M deal this offseason. In the current market that may be a touch high but it is probably in the ballpark.

Castro signed at $8M per year ($24M total) while the injured Ramos signed for about $6M per season so someone like Wieters might get more, particularly if he accepts a shorter contract. However with the market in a seemingly depressed state it does not seem like Matt will get more than $10M per season.

There is a potential fit with the Angels but it is not a great one. The recent 2-year trend in Wieters line drive percentage is particularly exciting from an offensive point-of-view and there seems to be room for Matt to recover more on the defensive side as well.

In the end if the Angels plan to spend this much money it might be more worthwhile to trade for Miguel Montero, if he is available, who has superior pitch framing skills and would probably not cost us a significant amount in prospect currency. He hits RHP well which would complement Maldonado and in turn allow the Angels to roll out Jefry Marte in a platoon role with Cron if they do not trust C.J. against LHP.

Of course Matt Wieters would be a cash only deal for the Halos which would relieve Billy Eppler from not having to dip down into the barren farm system to execute another trade this offseason.

The recent rumor that the Angels are interested in Wieters may just be Jon Heyman generating clickbait, Scott Boras drumming up the value of his client, or actual interest in the former Orioles star by the Angels.

In regard to the latter there is a positional fit and Matt would improve the team, perhaps significantly if his trends continue, so it is not a stretch that he could be in an Angels uniform by the end of Spring Training.

A Hypothetical Case for Jose Bautista

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 10 Jan 2017 03:21:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

First of all let me start off by saying that the odds of the Angels interest level in Jose Bautista, much less signing him, are pretty low. This is simply a test case to identify any possible advantages and disadvantages his signing would bring to the Halos.

To start the conversation Billy Eppler would have to find a positional home for Bautista. The Angels are almost certainly not going to move a premier defender like Kole Calhoun out of right field and, based on Eppler’s early offseason strike in the trade market, Maybin seems set in left field and is likely to become our leadoff hitter.

Jose has not played third base in a long time and frankly Escobar’s bat is also valuable at the top of the lineup (likely the 2-hole) so the Angels probably do not want to downgrade even more defensively at third base despite the value of Bautista’s bat in the middle of the order.

This really only leaves first base and designated hitter and we know one of those spots is permanently (at least it seems like it) held for Albert Pujols. Of course this means that if the Angels really think Jose Bautista is a good idea, C.J. Cron would have to be moved in trade or relegated to a bench role.

Frankly taking Cron’s bat and moving it to the bench seems like a waste of a roster spot. He would only play on a part-time basis or as an injury reserve and would only see plate appearances late in a ballgame. Certainly he could bring a big bang against RHP and is still inexpensive enough that team payroll would not notice but this is a less than ideal scenario for the Angels.

What this means is that the Halos would have to trade C.J. in order to accommodate Jose Bautista at first base.

So for the sake of this hypothetical argument let us say that the Angels trade C.J. Cron to the Rockies for a relief pitcher and prospects, say LHR Jake McGee and one or two mid-tier prospects. This now opens the door for the Angels to sign Jose.

As we all know Bautista rejected the Qualifying Offer, which means the Angels will have to sacrifice their 2nd round pick in this year’s draft (their 1st round, #10 pick, is protected).

A 2nd round pick is of course a lot less valuable than a 1st round pick. Realistically speaking, this 2nd round pick is, in the author’s opinion, worth about $8M-$12M in 2017. For the purposes of this article we will assume the current value is $10M for simplicity’s sake.

Of course that pick could, in 2-5 years, turn out to be worth a lot more if the player selected in that slot pans out and becomes a star. However a lot of Minor League players never make it to the Majors particularly ones taken outside of the 1st round.

Basically Billy Eppler needs to decide if that 2nd round pick plus the money spent is worth the upgrade from Cron to Bautista and does it raise the floor of the team enough on the win curve to make a difference to the teams odds of competing and winning in 2017.

So how much money would the Angels have to spend to sign Jose to a 1-year contract?

Currently it has been rumored that Bautista wants a one year deal greater than the Qualifying Offer amount of $17.2M he rejected from the Blue Jays. FanGraphs Dave Cameron suggested that Jose could wind up signing a one year deal in the $20M-$25M range.

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system pegs Bautista at a 3.1 zWAR while Steamer thinks he will produce 2.7 WAR. FanGraphs Depth Charts essentially combines those two projection systems with inputs from their staff and shows him at 2.8 WAR, which is what we will use for the remainder of this discussion.

Assuming a $/WAR value, in the 2017 free agency year, of $8.5M/WAR combined with Jose’s 2.8 WAR projection yields a free agency price of $23.8M. This price is approximately what Bautista should sign for if you believe in the projection systems and the $/WAR number above.

So if Eppler has to fork out $23.8M for a one year contract, exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and incur a probable $500,000 in taxes at the end of the season (this is a fairly negligible issue in this scenario though), and lose an estimated $10M, 2nd round draft pick, despite what Cron brings back it does not seem worth it right? Maybe.

The final thing you have to consider in these scenarios are the opportunity costs on the back-end of a signing as well.

If the Angels sign Bautista, trade Cron, and then make it to the playoffs how many people would even remember the fact that we lost a 2nd round draft pick in 2017? My suspicion is not many.

In fact you could make a sound case that spending the money now, preseason, is infinitely better than trying to buy a bat at the trade deadline where you will undoubtedly have to pay more in prospect currency (something the Angels do not have).

Your next question might be what happens if the Angels are not competitive and have to sell at the trade deadline?

The answer here is that Eppler would almost certainly have plenty of suitors for Jose’s services in a deadline market. Bautista’s ability to play corner outfield, first base or DH would fit with a lot of clubs and his bat would likely be highly sought after as well.

If the Angels found themselves in this spot they could eat as much money as they need to in order to increase the return of players and prospects that a big bat like Jose would probably command on a pure rental contract.

Here is where the Angels would probably get equal or greater value back for what they had to sacrifice to sign him. As an example we will use the recent Carlos Beltran trade the Yankees executed near the trade deadline in 2016 as a comparable for Bautista’s relative value. It should be noted that Jose is 3 years younger than Beltran and would be 2 years younger relative to Carlos’ age if he were traded mid-year in 2017.

In that trade the Yankees acquired three Minor League pitchers including RHP Dillon Tate, who was the 4th overall pick (1st round) in the 2015 draft, RHP Erik Swanson, and RHP Nick Green. All three are young and playing in the lower Minors (Swanson had 1 inning in both AA and AAA in 2015). The Yankees went after young, unestablished, upside relying on their excellent scouting department to identify value.

The Angels, if they did sign Jose and had to trade him at the deadline, would likely be able to ask for a 1st round draft pick from the 2016 draft as the centerpiece of any trade. The value of that pick is probably at least double the value of our 2nd round 2017 draft pick (i.e. about $20M in value), not to mention that those prospects are already climbing their way closer to the Majors and that is time saved to help win in the Trout window of contention.

This also does not account for the value of any other pieces the Angels could potentially acquire as complimentary value in a trade which would likely add about $8M-$12M. Of course this assumes the Angels eat some of Bautista’s remaining 2017 salary. Notably the Angels, instead of asking for three lower level prospects, could ask for one or two mid-level or higher prospects instead or even a MLB player.

So the opportunity cost here involves a lot of factors. Perhaps the most important one is the ability to trade Cron successfully and for at least fair value (for the record about a $20M-$30 surplus). Others include Jose’s actual contract price, the delta upgrade from Cron’s performance to Jose’s, the loss of our 2nd round draft pick, and the potential recompense of making the playoffs or receiving players and prospects back in a mid-year trade.

There is a compelling case to be made that the Angels should sign Bautista if Eppler can move Cron and convince Arte that exceeding the Luxury Tax by a small amount of money is acceptable (which frankly should not be hard to do in theory). The downside risk in this is actually fairly small.

Basically you are losing approximately $35M in current 2017 value to sign Jose (again assuming you get fair trade value for Cron) in order to gain the opportunity of 1) potentially reaching the playoffs, 2) selling Bautista off at the trade deadline for a probable maximum upside of $30M-50M in 2017 value, or 3) getting nothing because Jose has been injured or has massively underperformed in the first half of 2017.

The overall risk in this scenario appears manageable. Bautista has proven himself to be pretty durable over the last several seasons so the odds of injury is not as high as it might be with other players. Additionally the projection systems do not see a sharp decline for 2017 reducing that risk a bit. Risk is further reduced because it appears Jose is heading for a one year deal in free agency which avoids long term entanglement with an aging veteran.

Again this is a hypothetical long shot of an idea in the first place simply based on our current team payroll concerns and positional availability.

However there does come a time where the opportunity cost makes enough sense that it could encourage a team like the Angels to seriously consider it as an option. There is a reason they call Bautista “Joey Bats” and eventually there could be enough reasons the Angels would want to capitalize on signing him if his market remains depressed and they can make room for him.

AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #18 Troy Montgomery

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 07 Jan 2017 22:29:00 +0000

Prospect: Troy Montgomery - Rank: 18

2015/16: UR Position(s): Outfielder

Level: Class A Ball Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 5'10” Weight: 185 lb.

Present - Future

Hitting Ability: 40 - 50

Power: 45 - 50

Base Running: 65 - 65

Patience: 55 - 60

Fielding: 60 - 60

Range: 60 - 60

Arm: 60 - 60

Overall: 45 - 60

Floor: AAA Depth.

Ceiling: Starting outfielder and leadoff hitter in the major leagues.

Likely Outcome: Dynamic 4th outfielder

Summary: Montgomery is one of my favorite types of players to get drafted. The type that don't have any hype, and don't come with the over-used "5-tool" moniker. Just really good ball players, that do just about everything average or better on a baseball diamond. The type that perform well at a big-time college, but fall to the 8th round of a draft because they're only 5'10" tall. The type that play a game with such intensity, that others can't help but look up to this player. Just good old fashioned, blue-collar hard work and the will to win.

If you haven't caught on, I just described Kole Calhoun. In fact, Troy even looks a bit like Kole Calhoun out there, minus the fiery red hair, and slightly less muscular. Same left-handedness, similar skill-set, athleticism, same passion and competitive spirit.

That's what we'll see if everything breaks right for Troy Montgomery, a Kole Calhoun type of regular. It's no wonder the Reds asked for Montgomery in return when they were discussing trading Brandon Phillips to the Angels. At Ohio State, Montgomery logged more BB than K, stole 56 bases between his junior and senior season, owned an OBP well north of .400, played in competitive scouting leagues during the offseason and performed spectacularly, and to top it off, was an elite defender.

It still makes me shake my head that guys like this last until the middle rounds of the draft when at bare minimum, you have yourself a useful depth piece between AAA and the majors. Once drafted by the Angels, Montgomery torched Orem and the Pioneer League in general, and was promoted to Burlington, where he was quite solid, if not "pretty good".

From the scouting side of things, Troy is a left handed hitter with more pop than the numbers show. Sure, he's a speedy leadoff hitter that reaches base and can hit for average, but Troy swings hard, yet under control. There's "plus" bat speed and an advanced feel at the plate. Every once in a while he'll swing out of his shoes, but not too often. Defensively, Montgomery can cover a ton of ground in CF and has a rocket for an arm, though the Angels have been using him in the corner outfield to start.

What to expect next season: Montgomery should head to Advanced A Ball at Inland Empire next season, and I'm guessing he'll put up the gaudy HR/SB numbers (at least on the road) that will really open the eyes of more casual fans, and thus his ranking as a prospect will climb. Personally, I'll be watching to see how much contact Troy makes, if he's using the whole field, and continues to show patience as many patient hitters don't do in the Cal League environment. With Troy, there is the off-chance the Cal League is too easy and he'll be bumped up to AA for the season, but I wouldn't count on it. Even Kole Calhoun was kept at Inland Empire for a full year.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Mid 2019, Troy's age 24 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+: Projects to be a borderline MLB starter.

Angelswin.com 2017 Season Primer Part XII: Center Field

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Fri, 06 Jan 2017 17:52:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

If you have come here today to read about who will play center field for the Angels in 2017 I’ll save you the suspense: MIKE TROUT! (To be frank you should know this already by the way)

Also, rather than bore you with a 10,000 word essay on how freaking awesome our Hall of Fame center fielder is I’d like to borrow the words of Fred R. Barnard who once said, “A picture is worth ten thousand words.”

Enjoy.

Mike’s First Career Hit

Trout’s First Career Home Run

Mike’s First Career Grand Slam Off Of Detroit’s Rick Porcello

Trout’s 2nd Career Grand Slam Off Of A Wicked Chris Sale Changeup

Mike’s 3rd Career Grand Slam Off Of The Rangers Spencer Patton

Trout’s 4th Career Grand Slam Off Of The Twins A.J. Achter

Perhaps You Prefer Mike Trout Taking Someone Else’s Grand Slam Away From Them?

Maybe You Like To Drive Home Safely To Get Away From Those Scumbag Red Sox Fans?

Perchance You Favor Walk Offs?

Remember When Mike Trout Played Left Field?

Mike Trout Setting the Mike Trout Standard Of Defense

Not Only Can Mike Glide, He Can Slide

Trout, King Of Center Field, Robs A Prince

Mike Can Even Steal A Home Run From Jesus

AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #19 Eduardo Paredes

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 05 Jan 2017 23:23:00 +0000

Prospect: Eduardo Paredes Rank: 19

2015/16: 18 Position(s): Right Handed Pitcher

Level: AA Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 6’1” Weight: 190 lb.

Present - Future

Fastball 65 65

Curve 50 60

Change 50 50

Mechanics 60 60

Command 55 60

Control 70 70

Overall 55 65

Floor: Middle Reliever in the Major Leagues

Ceiling: A closer in the Major Leagues.

Likely Outcome: A 7th-8th-9th inning option, doesn't matter.

Summary: It's a shame we don't rank relievers as high on prospect lists, otherwise Paredes would be getting a lot more notoriety among fans. Everywhere Eduardo has gone, he's succeeded, and he's still very young. When the Angels signed Eduardo as a 17 year old, he was completely and utterly dominant in the Dominican Summer League. For reasons unknown, the Angels decided it would be a good idea to have Paredes repeat the DSL as an 18 year old, which he did and was again dominant. The Angels then brought him stateside as a 19 year old and put him in the hitter paradise that is Orem in the Pioneer League. No matter, Paredes dispatched them with no problem at all. In fact, he finished with a 1.33 ERA and 31 K's in one 20 innings. That's how easy Orem was for Eduardo.

You'd really think by now the Angels would start aggressively promoting Paredes, but still they're going a level a year, and so for most of the next season, Eduardo Paredes fools hitters in A Ball to the tune of a 1.77 ERA with a 12.6 K/9 and an even more impressive 1.7 BB/9. The Angels decide it might be a good idea to promote Paredes after he's completely fatigued from an unusually large workload in A Ball and he gets to the Cal League and is simply "OK" for the first time in his career.

The Angels send him back to Inland Empire to start 2016 and Paredes, armed with a fresh arm sits batters down with no issues, so he is promoted to AA, as a 21 year old, which is pretty remarkable. While in Arkansas, we see a strange thing happen. Parades' ERA remains a very solid 3.35, but for the first time in his career, he isn't striking out as many batters, which suggests that after five years of the Angels playing it conservative, they seem to have finally found a level in which Eduardo can grow by facing competition that challenges him. It's about time.

From the scouting side of things, Paredes attacked hitters with a low three-quarters, borderline sidearm release. He still uses his legs to generate plenty of momentum going forward, and there doesn't appear to be too much stress put on his shoulders or elbow. Eduardo uses two different fastballs. The first is a 4-seam fastball that sits 95-97 with cut action, the second is a 2-seam fastball that sits 92-94 with sinking action. Both are regarded as "plus" pitches. Parades also throws a curve that he keeps low in the zone. It isn't a "plus" pitch, but it does serve as a consistent change of pace pitch. Finally, Eduardo has been experimenting with a change up the past couple seasons that has improved to the point where he can use it.

Paredes is a guy that has a few different ways to get a hitter out. The heat will generate lots of swings and misses, but the curve and change up have created quite the uncomfortable at bat for both lefties and righties.

What to expect next season: Eduardo should head to AAA after being protected on the Angels 40-man roster this offseason. But, with the way the Angels have handled Paredes so far in his career, it wouldn't be surprising to see him back in AA again, even after showing that he should be promoted. If the Angels bullpen doesn't round into form, and if they find themselves contending for a playoff spot, we should see Paredes in Anaheim this season. If things go south quickly, it's likely the Angels will delay Paredes' arrival until 2018 so as to gain an additional year of control.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Middle of 2017, Paredes' age 22 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #20 Hutton Moyer

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 02 Jan 2017 20:11:00 +0000

Prospect: Hutton Moyer - Rank: 20

2015/16: UR Position(s): Utility Infielder

Level: Advanced A Ball Age: Entering Age 24 season in 2017.

Height: 6'1” Weight: 185 lb.

Present - Future

Hitting Ability: 45 - 50

Power: 45 - 50

Base Running: 50 - 50

Patience: 40 - 40

Fielding: 50 - 50

Range: 50 - 59

Arm: 50 - 50

Overall: 45 - 50

Floor: AAA Depth.

Ceiling: Starting second baseman in the major leagues.

Likely Outcome: Offensive-minded utility infielder.

Summary: Moyer had a pretty good year. That's me putting it in the simplest terms possible. To elaborate, Moyer proved a lot of doubters wrong/ He still has a way to go, but the foundation is set for justified future promotions. When Moyer was selected in the 7th round by the Angels out of Pepperdine, I was immediately intrigued, but surprised. For starters, Moyer wasn't that great at Pepperdine. It took until his final year there before we saw any sort of promising tools, that being his power, begin to manifest. So yeah, there was a degree of suspicion that perhaps Moyer was selected as a bit of a hat tip to his father, Jamie Moyer, who spent 23 years pitching in the big leagues.

This notion was only further supported by Moyer's poor showing at Orem last year after being drafted. But a guy I talked to kept saying Moyer has some power, that I'll be surprised. And he was right.

Hutton hit 33 doubles 17 home runs and stole 13 bases between two levels of A Ball this year. As a middle infielder, that's pretty awesome. His .276/.341 batting line isn't too shabby either. What's even more impressive is Moyer's performance in the Cal League. Most of the extra base hits came at home, at Inland Empire, the only pitcher friendly venue in the California League. This only serves as more proof that the power Moyer displayed is real. More accurately, Moyer's pull power is real. When his timing is down and he turns on a pitch, it can fly a very long way.

But speaking of timing, here's where my skepticism creeps right back into the picture. It's Moyer's approach at the plate. There are a ton of moving parts. Pre-pitch, his hands are all over the place. While the pitcher is mid-delivery, we see Hutton's hands drop down to his waste before returning to shoulder height. While this is happening, we see a very high leg kick and then a swing. I'm certainly not opposed to leg kicks, but when you see Moyer's you realize his timing mechanism is about as complicated as the come. In fact, it's likely a big reason why Moyer struck out 143 times in only 124 games! This is something the Angels will need to iron out before Moyer reaches AA and AAA next season, because more advanced pitchers will be better prepared to exploit these timing and contact issues. The trick here will be to keep his timing, while eliminating the movement and still maintaining the power he had before. Not an easy thing to do.

Defensively, Moyer can be seen at second, third and shortstop. At second base, he's a plus fielder, showing the range, arm, footwork and instincts of a truly impressive defensive asset. When he moves over to third base, we see a lot more of an unsteady approach. It seems like Hutton isn't sure of the path the ball is taking or how much time he has to throw it to first base, or what to do with his feet. At shortstop, Moyer is certainly better than he is at third base, but so much of this seems based purely off of Hutton's athleticism and not his actual familiarity with the position. Undoubtedly, Moyer will need to improve at third base if he wants to be a utility infielder in the major leagues, but if his bat continues to produce the way it did last year, then Hutton may not have to worry about it so much. Most of his playing time should come at second base, where he is clearly comfortable.

What to expect next season: Moyer will be on the move to AA Mobile. This is where we separate the prospects you dream on versus the prospects you can actually count on. Success at the AA level is much more transferrable to the major leagues than anything in A ball or Advanced A. It's the biggest jump in the minors. I also expect Hutton to be able to settle in second base, seeing as he'll have more gifted defenders around him to play shortstop and third base. If Moyer cuts down on the stirekoputs and continues to hit for power, I'd be looking at a possible starting second baseman in the majors.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Late 2019, Moyer's age 26 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+: Projects to be a reserve infielder.

Check out our interview with Hutton Moyer conducted over the summer of 2016.

Hutton Moyer Interview August 29 2016 from AngelsWin.com on Vimeo.

Angelswin.com 2017 Season Primer Part XI: Left Field

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Mon, 02 Jan 2017 01:27:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, Part VII here, Part VIII here, Part IX here, and Part X here.

Billy Eppler, just like his predecessor, struck early in the offseason this November, acquiring the Angels left field solution for 2017 by trading for OF Cameron Maybin from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for RHR Victor Alcantara.

Initially a lot of fans were lukewarm to the deal and not particularly dazzled by the pickup but hindsight being 20/20 it may prove to be a pretty savvy move by our new GM. Let me explain why.

First of all, per Jeff Fletcher’s initial report on the trade, Maybin said that Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, in 2015, helped him adjust his mechanics and, in Maybin’s words, “… he pretty much changed my career”.

Perhaps more importantly you can see that change in Cameron’s batted ball profile:

Maybin’s overall fly ball percentage has reduced significantly, particularly against RHP. In 2015 and 2016 it was 6.3% and 8.1% lower than his career average. Just as importantly a lot of that reduction has been siphoned off into this line drive and ground ball percentages resulting in a higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which is what you would expect to see when you hit more line drives.

Essentially it appears that Cameron may have adjusted his swing plane slightly and in his more recent swings his back leg appears to bend a bit more and he does not seem quite as upright and stiff when making contact compared to earlier in his career (the author is not an expert in swing mechanics!).

No matter what the change is, this improvement in his batted ball profile is what you would like to see in a good leadoff hitter. Maybin has the ability to spray the ball to all fields (which he has always been pretty good at), steals bases at an efficient rate, runs the bases well, and puts pressure on the opponent’s defense.

Maybin is a center fielder by trade but for the Angels he will man left field in the 2017 season and act as an injury reserve if Trout or Calhoun hit the disabled list for any reason. He should provide plus defense in left field to what is quite likely the best overall outfield in all of baseball.

Team defense has been a primary goal for Billy Eppler and he has done a really great job focusing on it this offseason. High quality defense has the ancillary effect of reducing overall innings pitched and total pitch counts because more balls in play are converted to outs so this has an important side effect for the team as a whole and for a rotation and bullpen that will be challenged to pump out close to 1,400 total innings across a full MLB season.

It seems very likely to the author that the Angels will employ Cameron in the leadoff spot, particularly against RHP, for the 2017 season with Escobar hitting in the 2-hole which should create a really dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the order.

If Maybin can manage at least a .340 OBP and Yunel, hitting behind him, can match his career .351 OBP, they will provide a lot of RBI opportunities to Mike Trout hitting out of the 3-hole. This has goodness written all over it and if Cameron continues to perform this offense could be even more productive than it was last year.

On the off chance Cameron is injured the Angels recently signed OF Ben Revere to a 1-year deal. Revere should prove to be a capable reserve 4th OF to spell the regulars on their days off and should be a dynamic pinch runner and hitter off of the bench. It is also possible that Ben could enter a platoon with Maybin if Cameron regresses/reverts to his pre-2015 numbers. We will talk more about Revere in the Bench section of the Primer.

This trade has a lot of potential if you really believe in Maybin’s revamped mechanics -- and it is clear that something did change in his batted ball profile -- but the question will be whether or not it is a sustainable one.

If it is viable, watch out because Cameron could quickly become a new fan favorite in very short order.

MAYBINVILLE Claude?

AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #21 Brennon Lund

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 31 Dec 2016 19:03:00 +0000

Prospect: Brennon Lund - Rank: 21

2015/16: UR Position(s): Outfield

Level: A Ball Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 5'11” Weight: 185 lb.

Present - Future

Hitting Ability: 50 - 55

Power: 30 - 40

Base Running: 60 - 60

Patience: 50 - 50

Fielding: 50 - 50

Range: 55 - 55

Arm: 45 - 45

Overall: 45 - 50

Floor: AAA Depth.

Ceiling: Borderline starting outfielder.

Likely Outcome: 4th/5th outfielder.

Summary: Brennon Lund is a case study in when do the numbers become legitimate? From a tools standpoint, he shouldn't be THAT good. He should be decent, but not team leader type of good. He's smaller in stature in terms of professional athletes, he doesn't have any power, there's some speed but not enough to be a base stealing threat at the highest level. He's a good defender, but not so good that you'd consider him a defensive replacement that will give you anything but decent performance.

When we take all of that into account, Lund is just minor league depth. Except for the simple fact that he just keeps hitting. His freshman year at BYU, he hit .303. Not bad, especially considering it was his first year of college ball. His sophomore year, we see a modest jump up to .308, again, pretty good. Then in his junior season, Lund just exploded, hitting .387 with career highs in every offensive category. The Angels picked him up in the 11th round, which worked out in their favor. Apparently other teams were scared off because he's mormon, and kids that are mormon and his age tend to wear ties, ride bicycles and knock on doors. But Lund made it clear to the Angels that he doesn't intend to make a mission trip.

Just breaking down Lund's swing, we see extremely simple mechanics. His hands remain pretty close to the chest, he doesn't have a big load which can elongate his swing. In fact, Lund has barely any load mechanism at all. It's simple. Hands fly through the zone, barrel of the bat to the ball, finish with hands high to ensure driving through the ball and not to the ball. Lund uses the whole field, but being left-handed, occasionally he'll drop the barrel of the bat on a low and inside pitch and get himself a round-tripper.

Lund's first stop after signing with the Angels was the offensive paradise which is Orem in the Pioneer League, where he hit .397. That's over 18 games, which is a bit of a small sample zine, but still, .397, this kid was crushing the competition, even against his fellow collegiate athletes. Then as a sort of mercy to everyone else, Lund was sent to Burlington. His performance against competition quite a bit older and more experienced than him led to Lund's numbers dropping to a modest .271/.320, but it still came with 9 doubles and 8 stolen bases in just 45 games. Extrapolated across a full season, and without any improvement whatsoever (which is silly because of course Lund would improve, he was just drafted), Lund would've hit 27 doubles and stole 24 bases on the season. Again, just solid numbers, especially for a kid that's young and inexperienced for his league.

So this leads to the logical question, that if Lund continues to hit so well, when do the numbers become legitimate? When do we just say, he's a good hitter. Good hitters are in the majors. And that in a nut shell is exactly why Lund is ranked #21 on our list.

What to expect next season: Lund will almost assuredly find himself at Inland Empire next season. Since he isn't a power hitter, the environment really shouldn't have much of a positive effect on his overall performance. I expect Lund should post numbers rather similar to Bo Way. At Inland Empire he hit .277/.349 with 27 stolen bases.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Late 2020, Lund's age 25 season

Grade as a prospect: C: Projects to be a reserve outfielder.

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #22 Brooks Pounders

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 28 Dec 2016 21:39:00 +0000

Prospect: Brooks Pounders Rank: 22

2015/16: UR Position(s): Right Handed Pitcher

Level: AAA Age: Entering Age 26 season in 2017.

Height: 6’5” Weight: 265 lb.

Present - Future

Fastball 55 55

Curve 50 50

Change 60 65

Mechanics 60 60

Command 45 60

Control 55 55

Overall 50 55

Floor: Swing Starter or bullpen depth. Ceiling: A mid-rotation, workhorse starter.

Likely Outcome: A back-end starter, or swing starter.

Summary: Pounders may end up being quite the steal for Angels GM Billy Eppler, a man known to have an eye for buying low. The Angels traded Top 30 Prospect Jared Ruxer to Kansas City for Brooks Pounders early on in the offseason, and so far, it looks like a very interesting swap. In Ruxer, the Angels dealt a pitcher with mid rotation upside (or better) that has been bit by the injury bug thus far in his career (very similar profile to former Angel prospect Michael Clevinger who was traded to Cleveland when his value was low after injury). Ruxer still has a way to go before ever reaching the majors, so the Angels traded him for more of a sure thing in Pounders. Pounders has shifted between the bullpen and rotation in his career, and always seems to be a guy that's overlooked, which isn't an easy thing to do considering his size and draft position (2nd round). It's likely that Pounders' weight is precisely the reason why he gets overlooked by many scouts. They have this idea of an ideal pitcher's body being tall, lean, flexible, like a quarterback in football. But when a player comes in that might be bigger or smaller than that, they can be met with skepticism. Pounders mechanics have always been clean, and he comes downhill hard on his delivery, which gives the illusion of a ball "jumping" on a batter. Because of his hight, there is a bit of sink or downhill motion to his pitches which can make Pounders a ground-ball specialist in the future.

As far as arsenal, Brooks throws a heavy fastball at 92-93, a pretty decent slider in the low-80's and a "plus" changeup in the mid 80's. To give you an idea of what the Angels managed to land her win Pounders, consider that in 2015, across 8 starts in AA he pitched to a sparkling 2.19 ERA, which the peripheral numbers seem to support. That Fall, he went to the heralded Arizona Fall League, and pitched three consecutive scoreless outings before being shut down for the Winter. Last season in AAA, posted a 3.14 ERA in the Pacific Coast League, logging 90 strikeouts across only 80 innings, working as a spot starter and piggy-necking other starters, so as to limit his innings. His brief foray into the major leagues didn't go well, but if nothing else, we can say that Pounds can strike batters out.

And so we have a very good prospect on our hands, that is major league ready. He won't project to be much more than he is now, and that's ok because right now, Pounders is already good.

What to expect next season: Pounders will enter Spring Training in open competition for the 5th starter and long reliever spot along with Jesse Chavez, Alex Meyer, Nate Smith, Manny Banuelos, Chris O'Grady, Vicente Campos and more. Naturally, only tow of these guys are likely to open the season with the Angels, so Pounders is going to need to be incredibly impressive to leapfrog Chavez and Meyer on the depth chart. The likeliest outcome here is that Pounders goes to AAA, where he'll again serve as a piggy-back starter or swingman along with Chris O'Grady. Pounders' previous success in AAA probably puts him first in line for a promotion, though admittedly, he's going to have some very talented pitchers around him in AAA, so it could go any direction. Inevitably, because Eppler likes to keep his arms fresh, Pounders will be part of a carousel of pitchers that log a lot of miles between Salt Lake and Anaheim. But as it goes with the rest of those pitchers, all Pounders has to do is impress in his time in Anaheim, and Eppler will be forced to keep him around.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Middle of 2017, Pounders' age 26 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

AngelsWwin.com 2017 Season Primer Part X: Catcher

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 27 Dec 2016 17:55:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, Part VII here, Part VIII here, and Part IX, here.

Continuing the positional roundtable discussion, let us talk about the Angels current catching situation.

When AngelsWin.com released the Primer Introduction it was my heavy suspicion that the Angels would sign or trade for a veteran catcher and trade one of Carlos Perez and Jett Bandy.

To be honest the Bandy trade caught the author off guard as he seemed to be a good choice to be the team’s backup catcher. Here Eppler decided to pull off a “two birds, one stone” approach again by acquiring right-handed hitting catcher Martin Maldonado and right-handed pitcher Drew Gagnon from the Brewers in exchange for Jett.

Despite the loss of Bandy, it is understandable why Billy went this route because it does provide a capable veteran replacement in the form of Maldonado who has two years of arbitration control left and is widely considered an above average pitch framer. Essentially we traded experience for youth.

On top of that Eppler may have picked up a sneaky-good pitcher in Gagnon, who ran a 52.2% GB% in 2016 as was pointed out to me by Angelswin.com member ‘Dochalo’ here, shortly after the trade. Drew may have developed or reincorporated a two-seam or sinking fastball into his pitch repertoire. Only time will reveal the reasoning behind the deal.

This trade has incrementally improved the team for 2017 but the guy that seemed the more likely of the two to be traded, Carlos Perez, is still here. Could he also be moved in trade?

The answer of course is maybe, which is not much of an answer but is a real possibility if Eppler continues to reimage the team to align with his vision of the 2017 Angels squad.

To get a better idea of what we have we need to understand our projected offensive output for our current catching tandem, looking at running MLB averages in recent history as seen below:

Maldonado tends to hit LHP better than he does RHP. Perez hits RHP better than he does LHP. Neither one of them is “hot fire” in regards to their platoon splits.

Both of them do bring excellent defensive skills to the table. As mentioned above Maldonado is a good pitch framer and ranked in the top 25% of catchers in that metric, per StatCorner, in 2016 and has a career 35% caught stealing rate. Perez has good mobility behind the plate and is good at throwing runners out with a career 38% caught stealing rate as well. Unfortunately Perez ranks in the bottom 25% of pitch framers for 2016.

If Eppler is emphasizing better pitch framing as part of his defensive makeover of the team there is a possibility that he could still trade Perez in favor of another catcher either in free agency or in trade to not only improve overall team framing but also offense against RHP.

When you examine the remaining free agent catchers on the market only one of them, A.J. Ellis, ranked positively in pitch framing and he is borderline in the metric. This really means that if the Angels want to upgrade again for a catcher who is a better pitch framer they will need to trade for a catcher that can do that for them.

Looking at that same StatCorner 2016 leaderboard a couple of names jump out as possibilities, Miguel Montero and Tony Wolters.

Montero, during the 2016 World Series, expressed displeasure at the lack of playing time he was given during that run. More importantly he is in the final season of his 6-year contract and the Cubs are probably willing to move him in trade with the emergence of Willson Contreras as their primary backstop. He also hits RHP well to the tune of a career wRC+ of 108 so Miguel improves defense and offense, checking off two important boxes for offseason upgrading.

When you consider the likelihood that the Cubs probably do not want to put Schwarber behind the plate very often, if at all, the makings of a trade could take shape here with a swap of bad contracts.

It would not be a complete surprise to see the Angels approach Chicago with a swap of Huston Street for Miguel Montero. They both underperformed in 2016 so in terms of basic surplus WAR value they are nearly equal (about negative $6MM-7MM each). Cases could certainly be made that Street and Montero are actually better than what we saw in 2016 so those WAR valuations could certainly shift based on which argument you buy.

A deal like this would certainly impact our bullpen but there would be a real improvement in pitch framing as Miguel has consistently graded out very well in the metric per StatCorner. Also the Angels could then go out and pick up a right-handed reliever in free agency of which there are quite a few to select from and replace the loss of Huston.

There is even a possibility the trade could expand. The Cubs will need a backup catcher behind Contreras so the Angels could conceivably send Perez in the deal. Chicago, even after the Soler trade, has a lot of outfield depth and the Angels could target someone like Happ (unlikely) or Zagunis (more likely) in a potential exchange.

The other name, Tony Wolters, plays for Colorado and the Rockies probably do not want to start the season with two inexperienced backstops behind the plate. Here, too, the Angels could possibly dangle Cron (particularly if Colorado does not sign a free agent hitter) or Perez as the basis for a trade.

Also, just like a possible Cubs deal, the Angels might be able to expand this trade by trying to acquire left-handed reliever Jake McGee, who is also in the last year of his contract. A Cron or Perez based trade for Wolters and McGee would make a lot of sense for the Halos.

Beyond those two names the remainder of the market is bare. Catchers, due to their part-time nature, are a pretty fluid currency and so the Angels may not be done making moves to improve their catching duo for the 2017 season especially when you look at what remains on the free agent market at the position.

To be clear the Angels can stand pat after the Bandy trade and they will have a backstop tandem that will provide good defense, catch and throw ability, and a measure of pitch framing ability (Maldonado). This combination will likely prove to be good enough to impact the Halos season in a positive way. Either way there is still room for improvement behind the dish.

Behind the current projected starting two the Angels also have the following catchers in AA and AAA as depth:

Jose Briceno
Tony Sanchez
Webster Rivas
Wade Wass

If a Major League starter goes down the Angels would likely call up Jose Briceno or Tony Sanchez to fill in temporarily (probably the latter).

It would also not be a surprise to see the Angels sign one or more additional catchers to Minor League contracts to shore up the depth chart before Spring Training arrives.

Author’s Choice – If Eppler’s obsession with pitch framing continues I could easily see a trade with the Cubs involving Street and Montero. Both of them have young guys breathing down their necks (Bedrosian and Contreras respectively), both underperformed in 2016 primarily due to injury and some bad luck, and both have fairly expensive 2017 salaries ($9MM and $14MM respectively).

This potential swap makes a lot of sense for both teams. The Angels would take on another $2.5MM in AAV (the difference between Street’s and Montero’s AAV’s for 2017) and could use the opportunity to either a ) send Perez in the trade or b ) send one or more prospects, to acquire one or more pieces back from the Cubs to fill long-term holes in our farm system. The Cubs add another relief option to their bullpen with closer experience and an option year if he performs well in addition to freeing up additional payroll to sign one or more of their young superstars to a long-term extension.

Personally if this went down I could see a Huston Street and Carlos Perez deal for Miguel Montero, OF Mark Zagunis, and LHR John Leathersich or something similar. It would give us one year of an excellent pitch framer who could platoon properly with Maldonado (Montero is a lefty who hits RHP better than Perez), it would give us a potential long-term solution in LF with Zagunis, and Leathersich could join the bullpen as a left-handed option to pair with Alvarez.

If the Angels prefer Wolters (and he is actually available) I could see the team sending Perez and another prospect or two for Wolters and McGee with the Rockies picking up some of Jake’s projected $5.9MM arbitration salary. The latter really underperformed primarily due to the high altitude environment which clearly impacted the movement of his pitches.

Finally you may be asking why we have not seen these moves yet. The Angels and the Cubs may be waiting for Spring Training to see Street and/or Montero in action to make sure things are acceptable performance-wise. The Rockies seem to be setting the stage for a trade of one of their outfielders so they can move Desmond off of first base and either sign a free agent bat or trade for a first baseman and they have been rumored to be considering a veteran upgrade at catcher themselves because both Wolters and Murphy are young and the Rockies rated very poorly at controlling the running game (which Perez would definitely improve for them).

Of course none of this could actually be in the works or happening which is fine too but it feels like the Angels have at least one more trick up their sleeve if pitch framing is critical in Eppler’s eyes (and that appears to be the case).

Conversations with Chris O'Grady

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 26 Dec 2016 22:00:00 +0000

The following is a transcript of conversations Scott Allen from AngelsWin.com had with Chris O'Grady before the publication of his top prospect profile.

Scott Allen: Hey Chris! Congratulations, you've made it onto the AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects. I caught a couple of games after you moved to the rotation. Guys had a hard time squaring you up. Do you know if the Angels plan on keeping you as a starter?

Chris O'Grady: Hey Scott. What number did I come in at?!? It went great moving into the rotation. Honestly, I haven't heard anything about next year, but I assume I'll start. I haven't gotten any type of big league invite for camp, so I'm hoping for that.

Scott Allen: You came in at #24. The Angels seem short-handed on situational lefties and long relievers, it seems like they'd give you a look. I was a bit surprised to see you go un-selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

Chris O'Grady: I like the rotation and bullpen, so anything they need me to do is fine with me. Hopefully this will be the year I get the call! (Majors). The Rule 5 would've been awesome, but I'd definitely like to make it up with the Angels.

Scott Allen: Well it seems like you offer the flexibility GM's like. You're left handed but are also effective on righties, you can start or relieve, and you have minor league options.

Chris O'Grady: I appreciate that. I'd like to improve against lefties. The cut fastball I throw, I have more success against righties.

Scott Allen: How did the transition to starter come up?

Chris O'Grady: Well I've had several spot starts throughout my career. I always did long relief, and I tended to do well in the starts that I had. Our pitching coordinator Pat Rice mentioned he thought I'd make a good starter. Then I got sent down to Little Rock and made a couple spot starts when Victor Alcantara got a blister. I ended up going 5 innings in one of them. A few days later, my pitching coach Scott Budner brought me aside and said he sees me as a starter and he wanted to suggest it to the Angels. And they went for it. So a week later I was officially in the rotation. The transition came surprisingly easy, and I'm definitely thankful to Pat and Scott for that. It could be huge for my career.

Scott Allen: Have you had to change your approach since moving into the rotation?

Chris O'Grady: For me, I haven't changed too much, except throwing the change up a little more. I still rely heavily on my cut-fastball, which I've always done. Many times I can command it better than I can my four-seam. But being able to command both of those is what got me where I am. I don't throw in the mid or high 90's, so I had to learn to really "pitch" rather than blow fastballs by everybody. I mix fastballs and cutters inside and out and throw in the occasional curve or change to keep them off balance. I like to attack inside. That's the biggest in my eyes. Doesn't matter how hard you throw if you can attack hitters on the inside and make them uncomfortable. And when they adjust, the outside opens right up again.

Scott Allen: So how's your offseason going so far?

Chris O'Grady: I'm down in the Dominican Republic right now trying to work on my breaking ball. Coming along well so far. I found something that's making it much better, so hopefully I can prove myself in spring and show I can pitch at the top level. I felt like I had a good spring last year after being selected by the Reds in the Rule 5, but because of one or two big innings, my ERA didn't show how I really pitched. I know I can get these guys out.

Scott Allen: Yeah, I read that you were much better than your final line. So how does the Dominican Republic-Winter League thing work? Do they just stick you in an apartment and tell you good luck?

Chris O'Grady: My agent called one day and said I had an offer from Estrellas Orientales to be a starting pitcher. I had to get permission from the Angels first, and then signed my contract. My goal was to come down and get some more experience starting. But they have been amazing so far. They set me up in a resort right on the beach. Most days I feel like I'm on vacation instead of playing baseball. I'm loving it and the competition is very good. I got lucky, Anthony Bemboom happened to be on my team, so I have a guy that I've been pitching to for like 5 years. Couldn't have worked out better. Speaking of Winter Ball, I just signed another contract with the Aguilas team to come pitch for them in the playoffs.

Scott Allen: So your team didn't make the playoffs, but you still get to pitch in the playoffs? Sounds like a big win.

Chris O'Grady: Correct. The teams that make the playoffs have a draft of the teams that didn't. They get to pick up 4-5 American players to put on the team for the playoffs.

AngelsWin.com would like to thank Chris O'Grady for his time and wish him the best of luck in the Caribbean World Series and next year.

Angelswin.com Top 30 Prospects: #23 Joe Gatto

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 26 Dec 2016 20:07:00 +0000

Prospect: Joe Gatto Rank: 23

2015/16: 5 Position(s): Right Handed Pitcher

Level: A Ball Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 6’3” Weight: 220 lb.

Present - Future

Fastball 55 60

Curve 55 60

Change 40 50

Mechanics 60 60

Command 45 60

Control 45 50

Overall 45 55

Floor: Swing Starter or bullpen depth. Ceiling: A mid-rotation, workhorse starter.

Likely Outcome: A back-end starter that can go 180+ innings.

Summary: Gatto's career hasn't taken off the way many thought it would after being taken in the second round of the draft. Generally speaking, prep pitchers taken in the second round have quite a bit of upside and can climb the ladder rather quickly. Gatto sort of bucks that trend. While he has some upside, it isn't the front of the rotation type attached to prep arms from his draft position. But his floor is also higher than that of most pitchers taken in that position, because it looked like from the get-go that Gatto is all starter. He has the right frame, mechanics and arsenal to log a lot of major league innings. His upside is that of a John Lackey type of starter, which Angels fans are familiar with. Joe comes straight downhill with his pitches, all of which have sink or a straight downward break, which makes Gatto a ground-ball inducing machine. His fastball sits 92-93, his curveball in the low 80's with a 12-6 break and his change up at times can look like a bugs-bunny type of pause. For the most part, his change up still isn't a consistent weapon yet, and he's missing low a lot with his fastball and curve (could be worse).

The results this past season in A Ball weren't quite what I or anyone else was expecting. Gatto was shelled in a pitching friendly environment to the tune of an ERA over 7.00 and only 15 starts. The Angels mercifully shut him down for the remainder of the year to rest his arm and try to figure out exactly what was happening. But the thing that Gatto has in his favor is time. He's only 21 years old, and repeating A Ball wouldn't be the worst thing for a pitcher like himself. Once Gatto is settled in and figures out how to get hitters out, he should have a steady climb to the majors. At that's something we can say with a degree of relative certainty, is that Joe Gatto looks like a future major leaguer. He has all the tools, now he just needs to put it all together.

What to expect next season: We should see Gatto get another shot as a starting pitcher in the Midwest League this year. He'll likely spend the entire season there, which isn't a bad thing by any means. What Gatto needs right now are quality innings, and if he can rack those up in A Ball and get his season innings up into the 150 range, the foundation will be set and we could see Gatto experience considerable future success. It may not be a make or break season for Joe, but I do think this will likely be his final opportunity to show he can succeed as a starting pitcher before the Angels try tinkering with him in the bullpen.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Middle of 2020, Gatto's age 25 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+

Check out our interview with Joe Gatto that was conducted over the summer of the 2015 season.

Joe Gatto 07-30-2015 from AngelsWin.com on Vimeo.

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, AngelsWin

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Sun, 25 Dec 2016 11:16:00 +0000

By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

The older I get, the more important hope seems to be. With three sons, I have to have hope that they will live better and greater lives than I did. And, I want to leave the world a better place so that they have every opportunity to provide better lives for their future children, my future grandchildren.

Baseball fans live on hope. All winter long they dream of the spring to come. They read about trades and free agent signings, looking for that one piece to put their team over the top. All spring, they watch the games to see what will become of their dreams. They learn the names of rookies and have endless arguments over the most minor of position battles. In summer, their dreams play out nightly with ebbs and flows that span the season. They live and die with series wins and player injuries. And, if all works out, their dreams come true in the fall, when they get to watch their dreams play out on the grandest stage of all.

So it seems to me that Christmas comes at a very apropos time for baseball fans. Near the midpoint between the end of the World Series and the beginning of Spring Training, its timeless message of hope and goodness reminds us of what can once again be true. All our hopes and dreams can be realized. It's just what people need in the darkest hours of winter, especially baseball fans.

Hannukah, too, with its universal message of heroic triumph of good over evil, overcoming insurmountable odds, is just what people need in the darkest hour of winter, especially baseball fans. Though it fluctuates with the lunar calendar, it too comes in the winter, near the midpoint between the end of one season and the beginning of the next. With its 8 days of lights, it shines a victorious message to remind us all of what can be achieved, when all else seems lost.

This year, the two holidays start at the same time, which is a rare occurance. Whether you celebrate one, the other, a different holiday, or none at all, we are all united in our love of baseball, especially the Angels. We are an internet based community, divided in many ways, but united in our passion. We gather together to share and revel in our love for the team and each other.

On behalf of everyone at AngelsWin.com, I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy Hannukah. May you and your family be blessed in these holy days.

Angelswin.com Top 30 Prospects: #24 Chris O'Grady

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 25 Dec 2016 00:09:00 +0000

Prospect: Chris O'Grady Rank: 24

2015/16: UR Position(s): Left Handed Pitcher

Level: AA Age: Entering Age 27 season in 2017.

Height: 6’4” Weight: 225 lb.

Present - Future

Fastball 50 50

Slider 45 55

Change 50 55

Mechanics 50 50

Command 55 60

Control 45 55

Overall 45 55

Floor: Lefty Specialist. Ceiling: A setup man, or potentially a back-rotation starter.

Likely Outcome: A 7th inning setup man.

Summary: O'Grady's had a pretty interesting ride in professional baseball so far. As a mid-round draft pick out of George Mason, there weren't a ton of expectations on O'Grady to perform. He's a tall lefty with a pulse, and those tend to get drafted. But it's O'Grady's growth as a pitcher that's truly led to a surprising run toward a major league roster. O'Grady sits 89-90 with both sink and cut on his fastball (referred to as his cutter - definitely his best pitch), and can generate more weak contact than swing and misses with it. In fact, it's the re-development of his cutter which has led to so much success. He used it in college, but moved away from the cutter early in his career because he couldn't get a feel for it with MLB's standard baseball. However, upon being shown a new grip, O'Grady re-integrated the cut fastball to his arsenal and took off. Chris also throws a "show me" slider to keep hitters off balance and a surprisingly effective change up that can generate its fair share of swings and misses.

O'Grady is what I refer to as an "average" pitcher in that his velocity or breaking ball aren't the sort that stand out. But O'Grady gets outs by spotting his pitches and staying ahead of hitters, which makes him considerably better than your average pitcher. He still lives low in the zone. which is good in that O'Grady can make hitters hit his pitches, but it also tends to lead to control issues due to less room for error.

If all this were taken into consideration, O'Grady would probably still be a Top 30 prospect, but more specifically, it's what he did in 2016 that has him placed on this list. O'Grady was picked up in the Rule 5 Draft by the Reds. It may not have gone as well as he or they had hoped in Spring Training, but it does make it clear that other major league teams feel O'Grady is big league caliber. But the most surprising development was the Angels use of O'Grady in the rotation.

It makes sense because O'Grady has the arsenal of a starting pitcher, but in this specific case, once O'Grady moved to the starting rotation in AA, he posted a 1.68 ERA across 50+ innings. Though this was a small taste (roughly one third of a season), it was still enough to show fans and scouts that O'Grady can successfully operate in multiple roles, which makes him more valuable, and more likely to have a career in major league baseball. He can be used as a situational lefty, a set up man, a closer, or a starter.

What to expect next season: If he remains a starter, Chris will likely be back in AA this year, though not because his performance bears repeating the same level. This is more of a result of Billy Eppler building a great deal of starting pitching depth in the majors and AAA this offseason. If the Angels intend to deploy him as a reliever, or in a variety of roles, he should be in AAA Salt Lake. The pitching environment won't be so favorable, but if O'Grady keeps the ball in the yard and spots his pitches as well as he can, he could find himself in Anaheim this season. For what it's worth, when asked, O'Grady hadn't been informed by the team if they intend to keep him as a starter or even if he'll be invited to big league camp.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Beginning of 2018, O'Grady's age 28 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

Tim Salmon on Rod Carew

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Thu, 22 Dec 2016 09:13:00 +0000

By Rob Goldman, AngelsWin.com Historical Writer -

When I look back on my career, I think about how many Hall of Fame players I was lucky to come in contact with. The one I appreciate most is my first hitting coach, Rod Carew. A legend in his own right, Rod was able to continue his excellence off the field as he articulated the finer points of hitting to a bunch of rookies in 1993.

Sometimes, because their talent is innate rather than crafted from the toils of extra work and frustration, a lot of superstars often don’t appreciate the average guy who struggles just to achieve respectability. Rod Carew was different in this way. I think he always held the belief that anyone could achieve exceptional talent if he understood and worked hard enough at the fundamentals of hitting. As a hitting coach, he always had a great rapport with players, especially those who were really willing to be one of his disciples. To me, it showed he cared about us and I really appreciated that quality in him.

During games he’d always have the younger hitters sit next to him in the dugout. Sometimes even the pitchers hung around, trying to glean anything they could off of him. He assigned a chart to one of the bench players to track the types of pitches that were thrown to each of our hitters in games. It proved to be valuable at a time when advance scouting wasn’t nearly what it is today. Some of my best growth as a hitter came from his coaching.

There are so many facets to hitting. Some players like the mechanical approach and some like mental approach. Going back to my great experience in Triple A, I learned that what works best for me was not focusing so much on the mechanics of what my body was doing but rather my state of mind. The work I did with Rod was never mechanical but analytical. We never broke it down like he might have done with other guys. With me, his focus was primarily on the pitchers, helping me develop a game plan I could take to the plate. Like Chili Davis, Rod really made me understand the concept of pitching strategies, which made me think about what I needed to anticipate standing in the batter’s box.

Early in my career, when I didn’t always have a game plan, I’d say to Rod, “What’s this pitcher trying to do here? What should I be looking for?” He’d say something like, “Fish, you’re gonna see all sliders right here,” and he was usually right. His knowledge of the game was tremendous.

He took a team approach to hitting. He frequently held pre-game meetings for hitters and he’d go around the room asking everybody pertinent questions. “Fish, what are you looking for against this guy? What do you know about this rightie coming out of the bullpen?” Or he’d say to GA, “Garret, you’ve got a lefty coming out of the pen. How has he pitched you in the past? What have you done against him lately?”

By drawing out our own knowledge and then adding his own, he really prepared us for the different pitchers we would face from night to night. Just as important, I found out that I could learn something new about a pitcher by hearing my teammates share their keys to hitting a certain guy.

Rod was also one of the game’s great pranksters. His favorite targets were rookies, and early in the season he would always make them ride in the bathroom during bus trips. If there was only one rookie it was no big deal, but when we had five or six rooks on the roster, they all had to pile in there, like 1950s college students in a phone booth. Often the ride from the stadium to the airport or to the hotel took around 30 minutes; Rod had them crammed into that tiny john the entire time.

In the mid-’90s we had a rookie pitcher named Mark Holzemer. Mark was a good-natured guy who knew that Rod loved him; and he always took his hazing in the fun spirit in which it was intended. But that also made him one of Rod’s favorite targets. One night, after a long road trip, we were coming home from Ontario Airport and Rod gave Holzy his usual marching orders: “Get in the toilet, rook!” Holzy did as instructed, to everyone else’s enjoyment. It was very late and after the long drive to the stadium everybody staggered off the bus, went to their cars and drove home. The bus was heading back to the terminal when the driver almost drove off the road because there was Holzy tapping him on the shoulder and wondering what was going on. He’d fallen asleep in the can, and everybody had forgotten he was in there. The bus driver had to turn around and take Holzy back to the stadium. When everyone found out about it the next day, the story became an instant classic.

As an everyday player, I was usually exempt from Rod’s pranks. But Luis Polonia wasn’t so lucky. He and Rod used to exchange some real doozies. After Luis found his spikes nailed to the bottom of his locker, for instance, he stole Rod’s street clothes from his locker, soaked them in water and froze them solid before hanging them back up. The game was on! It was fashionable for guys to wear leather pants in the early ’90s, and Polonia had a pair that he wore often. One day during the game Rod sneaked up to the clubhouse to do some of his own special tailoring. Taking the pants out of Luis’ locker, Rod went to work with some scissors. After the game, when Polonia put on his pants he discovered that the back pockets were missing exposing his cheeks and the legs were cut six inches shorter. Since Luis seldom bothered wearing underwear, it was quite a sight..

Rod’s greatest contribution to our team was his emphasis on communication. He was instrumental in reestablishing that old school part of the game among our group of hitters, and he forged a strong link between the new and old generations that was invaluable. For a Hall of Famer like him to take the time and effort to share his knowledge of the game with anybody who was interested made him as unique as a coach as he was a player.

Angelswin.com 2017 Season Primer Part IX: Third Base

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Thu, 22 Dec 2016 08:39:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, Part VII here, and Part VIII here.

So let us talk about Yunel Escobar.

First of all he is not a great baserunner, nor a base stealer. He just doesn’t add much value there if any.

In regards to his defensive ability, as Angelswin.com member ‘Dochalo’ said, here, “I think defense bores him and he loses focus.”

At one point in time Escobar was a good defensive shortstop but his move to third base has been lackluster at best and blundering at its worst. Doc is probably correct.

However, we should note one thing regarding his defense as seen in the two graphs, below, contrasting a really good defensive third baseman and Yunel:

Clearly Arenado has superior range but the interesting thing to note is how confined Escobar is to the third base line.

This has to be due, in part, to the Simmons effect as Yunel probably has been instructed to stay tight to the line (and rightfully so) to prevent down-the-line doubles and triples and to let Andrelton do his thing.

When you look at the components of Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) for infielders you see it consists of double play runs above average, range runs above average, and error runs above average.

Clearly Escobar has made errors, which is all on him. However, it could be argued that his confinement to a limited area on the third base side, due to Simmons in 2016 and Espinosa in 2015 when he was with the Nationals, might artificially limit his ability to turn double plays (opportunities are low) and show his lateral range (because of Simmons).

We are not making an argument that he does not commit errors. It is an argument though that the defensive metrics over the last two years may have been a lot harsher regarding his actual ability when compared to league average third basemen.

This may (and this is pure speculation) contribute to Escobar appearing bored or, in fact, being actually bored. No matter what though it is apparent his defense needs some improvement and FanGraphs projection systems seem to agree that it will recover a bit in 2017.

All of this talk about what he does not have brings us around to the primary thing that he does have: His bat.

FanGraphs posted a nifty article last week on hitter contact-quality for American League third baseman.

In that article they have a ‘BIP Profiles’ matrix graph and there are three very interesting characteristics that stand out regarding Yunel.

One is the really low pop up percentage where Escobar is over one standard deviation less than average for the group at 1.1%. There was only one other player, Nick Castellanos, who did slightly better in 2016. This simply means that Yunel avoids easy outs this way (slightly increasing his BABIP).

Item number two is his low strikeout percentage which is also over one standard deviation less than average sitting at a tidy 11.8%. This has been a key component of Escobar’s modus operandi which is to not walk or strikeout much and put the ball in play often.

The third item was the most interesting of the three characteristics regarding his extremely low 19.7% fly ball percentage. This, too, is over one standard deviation less than average and is a major contributor to his high BABIP rate of .339 in 2016.

It was so low it made me curious to pull up a leaderboard on FanGraphs of the lowest fly ball percentages league wide with a minimum of 100 PA’s. There was another interesting name, Cesar Hernandez, near the top of that list who, as we all know per Jeff Fletcher, the Angels were pursuing earlier in the offseason:

Basically over the last two seasons Yunel has managed to drop his fly ball percentage by about 2-3% and increase his line drive percentage by about the same amount. This combined with his ability to spray the ball to all fields, particularly up the middle, makes for a dynamic 2-hole hitter.

Now of course the Angels utilized him as their lead-off hitter in 2016 and he did well in that capacity but if they do start the 2017 season with Escobar on the roster it would not be unsurprising to see them put Maybin in at the top of the order and slide Yunel down a spot.

If Cameron can recreate his .383 OBP in 2017, having Escobar bat behind him could really recreate some of the old magic of Scioscia’s previous pressure type offenses by putting on hit and run plays and going first to third, challenging the opponent’s defense.

Of course the Angels could simply keep the same top four of the batting order that they had last year because of the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” mentality which would be perfectly acceptable.

Escobar is in his last season of control at a reasonable $7MM salary for 2017. This is almost certainly the last time we will see Yunel in an Angels uniform as Eppler will likely look to the free agent or trade markets to replace his production.

There is always a possibility that the 3B market doesn’t pan out to Billy’s liking and he re-signs him to a one year deal to bridge to a highly prized free agent like Manny Machado for instance (one can always dream and Lozano’s his agent right?).

Finally we should discuss the possibility that Yunel could still be traded pre-season.

Technically the Angels could see Maybin as their new lead-off hitter and Escobar as someone that can be upgraded, particularly on the defensive side of the equation.

The same problem the Angels had finding a 2B this offseason would also apply to 3B, perhaps even more so because the best two defensive 3B on the market, Turner and Prado, have been signed. Only Stephen Drew, Luis Valbuena, and Chase Utley remain and those seem like tertiary options rather than primary or even secondary ones.

It is possible the Angels could trade for a 3B but, again, the options are not particularly expansive. Someone like Mike Moustakas is in his last year of control but the Royals seem, at this point in time, more likely to make one last run with their core group and if they are out by the deadline then sell off those expiring parts.

Frazier, who is in his last year of control, is certainly available but he is out of the Angels reach financially in all likelihood at close to $13MM. Chase Headley might be more achievable and Eppler might be able to pull off a “two birds, one stone” or possibly even “three birds, two stones” type trade with his former club the Yankees.

Nick Castellanos is probably on the block too but he is similar to Yunel defensively although he has more pop in his bat. Other hitters like Jake Lamb and Eugenio Suarez might also be obtainable but they would cost Eppler quite a bit of prospect currency making them very doubtful.

Of course all of this trade talk is predicated on the Angels finding a trade partner for Yunel Escobar and his remaining $7MM salary which may prove hard to execute in the current environment.

In the end this is fine. The Angels have use for him and, with Simmons playing to his left, Escobar can continue sticking to the third base line and working some magic with his bat particularly against left-handed pitching which he destroys.

Let us leave the reader with a personally selected photo from Angelswin.com member Glen’s very private, special file:

What is this man thinking about?

Angelswin.com Top 30 Prospects: #25 Jonah Wesely

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 21 Dec 2016 18:45:00 +0000

Prospect: Jonah Wesely Rank: 25

2015/16: UR (injured) Position(s): Left Handed Pitcher

Level: A Ball Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 6’1” Weight: 215 lb.

Present - Future

Fastball 50 55

Slurve 65 70

Change 40 50

Mechanics 50 50

Command 40 55

Control 45 55

Overall 40 55

Floor: Lefty Specialist. Ceiling: A closer, or potentially a mid-rotation starter.

Likely Outcome: A 7th inning setup man.

Summary: It feels like we've been talking about Jonah Wesely forever, and that's because in the ever-changing baseball world, it has been forever. Wesley was drafted three years ago, and was seen as the "steal" of the draft by numerous non-Angel experts. Here's a kid with a large frame, left handed, throws in the low-90's with a great off-speed pitch, coming out of the baseball mecca that is California, and was signed away from his commitment to UCLA. For good reason, most teams steered clear of Wesely in the early going precisely because he was likely a 3rd or 4th round talent (or better) that should require 1st or 2nd round compensation to forego college, where it's likely he would've been a first round pick in a few years. Still, the Angels scooped him up in the 11th round and in a surprising turnoff events, managed to sign him. even more surprising, the Angels felt Wesely fit better as a reliever than a starter.

As a reliever, Jonah throws in the low-90's, reaching as high as 94 before needing Tommy John surgery. He has an excellent "slurve" (slider-curve mix) that is death on lefties, but is similarly intimidating to RHB. Wesley also throws a change up than he'll "push" too much at times, and thus it isn't anything more than a "show me" pitch right now, but if he ever gets a handle on it, it could be a third major league caliber pitch. Jonah has a good head on his shoulders and has a fiery competitive nature that cannot simply be taught, which is a big reason why the Angels felt a future as a reliever could be the way to go. Coming back from TJ surgery, Wesely will likely remain a relief pitcher in the near future, but there is still the possibility that he makes the transition back to the rotation at some point.

Still, Jonah has a long journey ahead of him. He's going to need to fully recover from his surgery first, and once that happens, he'll need to fully get a handle on his off-speed pitches again. Then, Wesely will still need to progress normally as a prospect would, which means throwing more strikes, hitting his spots. But even then, it's easy to dream on what Wesely could be someday, which is a dominant, hard-throwing reliever that racks up a high number of strikeouts, is effective against both LHB and RHB, and can go multiple innings at a time. Basically, as a reliever, Wesely's ceiling could be that of lite-version of Andrew Miller.

What to expect next season: Jonah made several appearances in Orem this year, but there were no expectations there. Just him shaking off the rust. I'd expect Jonah to return to Burlington (A Ball) for a bit, just to get his feet under him at first. This may seem like a step backward because Wesely was already so effective in Burlington before his surgery, but this is a process that takes time. It wouldn't be surprising if Wesely truly didn't round back into form until after the all-star break. If he does before then, it's basically just a bonus. I'd expect Wesely to spend the second half of the season at Inland Empire. I'll be specifically looking at his second half stats for numerous reasons. He'll be fully recovered, and I'd like to see if he becomes too fatigued as the year rolls along. Baseball season can be long and grueling.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Mid 2019, Jonah’s age 24 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+

Check out our interview with Jonah Wesely that was conducted in the summer of the 2016 season.

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

Angelswin.com 2017 Season Primer Part VIII: Shortstop

noreply@blogger.com (Dinsle) — Mon, 19 Dec 2016 07:41:00 +0000

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, and Part VII here.

Billy Eppler has made defense his first priority since taking the helm as general manager of the Angels and the cornerstone of that priority has been and will continue to be Andrelton Simmons, arguably the finest defensive player in Major League baseball.

Simmons is, of course, under contract for the next four seasons at a very affordable $8.286MM AAV per season with a total salary of $47MM spread out over those controlled years. These cost-controlled seasons happily coincide with the remainder of Mike Trout’s contract.

Following the concept of “it’s not what you’ve done, but what have you done for me lately?” Andrelton has, over the last three seasons, averaged a bit over 2.7 WAR per year. You can of course argue the defensive value component of WAR but there is no dispute that Simmons, in his first season as the Angels shortstop, has already provided excellent value for the team and should continue to do so in 2017.

Courtesy of Dan Szymborski, below is the 2017 ZiPs projection for Andrelton Simmons:

Steamer and Depth Charts basically concur with ZiPs projection of 3.4 WAR, each tagging Simmons for 3.7 WAR next season. All Andrelton has to do is maintain his stellar fielding range, instincts, and ability to be a difference-maker for the 2017 Angels squad.

So what does a superb defensive shortstop look like?

To give you an idea here is two fielding spray charts contrasting the well regarded, Astros Carlos Correa and the Angels Andrelton Simmons:

At a quick glance you can clearly see that Simmons has greater range in nearly every direction particularly towards the 3B/LF side and the ability to go back on the ball. Perhaps more importantly Andrelton had less missed plays (red dots) than Correa over the course of the 2016 season.

This last line is important because Eppler is building a pitching staff that is progressively putting more balls on the ground translating into more play attempts for the Angels infielders. Simmons talent to make plays consistently will be a major plus for the 2017 starting rotation and bullpen turning potential singles, doubles, and triples into productive outs.

It is this defensive production that makes Andrelton so valuable to the Angels. Everyone loves offense, some love a good pitching matchup, others salivate when the teams closer enters the game, but it is the steady gloves that provide the most consistent value to any team and that is why the old adage “pitching and defense wins championships” has held so true through the decades.

Billy’s efforts to build a great defensive team is really taking shape this offseason with the additions of Danny Espinosa and Martin Maldonado. Perhaps more importantly Eppler is building defensive depth as well.

If Simmons goes down, Espinosa can slide over to shortstop and fill the position until he returns, albeit in a less capable capacity. This really says more about Simmons defense than it does less about Danny’s. Behind these two the Angels currently have Kaleb Cowart and Nolan Fontana who are quite capable defensive players themselves and could, if really necessary, backup shortstop on a preferably short term basis.

Eppler has managed in a short period of time to not only build a nice defensive team (Simmons, Espinosa, Trout, Calhoun, Maldonado, Perez, and Maybin) but also make it deep enough to absorb the inevitable injuries that strike all MLB teams during the course of a season.

In the end the Angels bought the world’s most expensive baseball vacuum and in the author’s opinion it has and will continue to be worth every penny and then some.

Finally let us end this with some sick pornography:

All of it is good but they saved the best for last at the 4:35 minute mark.

Rest easy Angels fans we have a Curaçaoan God-King roaming shortstop for the next four years (and perhaps more…) and he is absolutely dedicated to perfecting his craft.

Angelswin.com Top 30 Prospects: #26 Jared Foster

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 17 Dec 2016 00:18:00 +0000

Prospect: Jared Foster - Rank: 26

2015/16: 26 Position(s): Outfield

Level: Advanced A Age: Entering Age 26 season in 2017.

Height: 5'10” Weight: 190 lb.

Present - Future

Hitting Ability: 40 - 45

Power: 50 - 55

Base Running: 50 - 50

Patience: 40 - 50

Fielding: 55 - 60

Range: 55 - 55

Arm: 55 - 55

Overall: 45 - 50

Floor: AAA Depth. Ceiling: Borderline starting outfielder.

Likely Outcome: 4th/5th outfielder.

Summary: Jared Foster is a completely different prospect depending on who you ask. When the Angels drafted him, they were excited to get a player of Foster’s raw talent. There’s power, speed and athleticism to work with (all pointing back to his days as QB at LSU), but not much in the way of refinement. Foster was basically a lottery ticket. He’d played baseball sparingly the two years before being drafted, but the Angels felt that if he focused all of his talents on one sport, that he could take off. In his first full season, we’ve seen that the Angels weren’t totally wrong in this line of thought. Foster really did improve by leaps and bounds throughout the season. He didn’t necessarily because a superstar talent, but he did show glimpses of being a quality major leaguer on his way to a combined .276/.317 line, which included 27 doubles, 9 homeruns and 9 SB. Not overly impressive numbers, but enough to show that Foster could hold his own. But now that he’s had a full year and a half under his belt of focusing solely on professional ball, it’s time to see if Foster really has the breakout potential envisioned.

As far as Foster in a specific scouting sense, there is some to be liked. His batting stance is open and when he gets a pitch to hit and stays within himself, he produces as easy flowing yet beautiful swing, capable of line drives and putting back spin on the ball (homeruns). His hands begin high, then move back, which offers plenty of extra whip in his swing, but also makes him highly susceptible to anything up. His timing is choppy, and he tends to foul off a lot of pitches he should be driving, but this is something that can be corrected with further instruction and development. Defensive, Foster has a very good glove, covers his fair share of ground and can competently play any of the three outfield spots.

What to expect next season: Foster had a pretty successful campaign overall. His numbers were skewed from playing in Burlington, but at the same time, his numbers were inflated by the Cal League (.247 BA at home in the only pitching friendly park, .342 elsewhere). I’d expect Foster to spend a few months at Inland Empire just getting his feet wet before moving onto AA Mobile. I’ll be particularly interested in seeing if his power further develops, or if Foster can picks his spots better when running. He also needs to reach base at a better clip. All of this will be taken into account for a promotion, because moving up to AA is the real test for prospects.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Late 2019, Foster’s age 26 season

Grade as a prospect: C: Projects to be a reserve outfielder.

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale. 20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen. MLB average is 50.

The Angels farm system is gaining ground

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 15 Dec 2016 04:48:00 +0000

By Jason Sinner, AngelsWin.com Staff Reporter -

So this is sort of a crude comp to the other bottom tier farm systems as ranked by mlb.com. I didn't feel like taking the time to include BA or BP.

MLB does a top thirty and frankly, I tend to disagree with their list more than most (they don't even have Hermosillo, Duensing, Chris Rodriguez, or Paredes on the list. They have Meyer 11th and they still have Baldoquin on there at 22nd. They also have Jewell 14th, Hinshaw 16th, Julio Garcia at 17th (who?) and Jesus Castillo at 29th.) Suffice to say, there isn't much depth in the understanding or evaluation of our system. (BA has a much better list imo - more in line with what AW has with Rodriguez 8th and Middleton 9th. They actually took some time to look at the players)

Having said that, most die hard fans for any team would disagree with the lists compiled on behalf of their favorite franchise.

MLB gives each player an overall grade with a max of 80. Broken down into categories for hitter - hit, power, run, arm, field, overall and pitchers - fastball, curve, change, control, overall.

ex - Moncada is the #1 prospect in baseball with scores of 60, 55, 60, 50, overall 65 (not sure how that adds up, but whatever).

Even if we disagree on the top 30, it's hard to say that the halos have been singled out with players disproportionately ranked lower than they should (personally, I would argue that to some degree because we currently have perception working against us but I digress........)

They also, of course, rank the top 100 as well as at top 10 by position.

The top 12 prospects are 60 grade and above. Then 13-100 are 55 grades.

The current bottom tier teams are the Rangers, Giants, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Dbacks, Orioles, Angels.

None of the above team have a 60 grade prospect.

Most of the teams top 30 are 45's and 50's with a couple 40's and 55's

Of note, once you get out of the top 30 players, it's anyone's guess.

Let's take a look at the top 30 players as ranked by mlb.com:

Last years farm had a raw score of 1330. About 40 points away from the next closest team. Right now, we are about 40 point away from being a 2nd tier system.

A little math - our top ten pick will be a 55 displacing a 40. Our second round pick will likely be a 50. Displacing another 40. Rodriguez and Duensing will make the list in the 50 range and I totally see Thaiss and Jones bumping into the top 100 and becoming a 55. I could see Marsh and Ward climbing in there as well with a little luck. So there could be a 40-50 point upswing which would put us mid 2nd tier. Grabbing a couple of solid international prospects would help and probably most important is having another good draft to infuse more guys in the 45 range throughout the middle of the system.

Personally, I couldn't give a squat where we're ranked. This was an attempt to help people understand that we are moving in the right direction. The key will always be to infuse as much organizational currency into the system as possible so there are that many more options to internally evaluate as potential to help the major league club whether it be in the form of promotions or for trades.

I agree with our resident prospect expert Scotty Allen that the rest of the league likely sees more in our system than the national publications who tend to gloss over the details and don't have the time or resources to really dive in. Which means that a characteristically poor system is going to keep that moniker until they get a couple of 60 grade guys or some guys at the lower levels graduate and do well in the upper levels/majors.

In the end, the litmus is what the farm is doing to help the major league club. We are getting that on the margins with trades for Maybin and Espinosa but it's still gonna be about 18 months before the major league club realizes a needle moving benefit from an improved farm system.

So first of all, we're part of the pack again. We're still hobbling on a wooden leg, but at least we have the guy with the diabetic foot and the other guy with angina to keep us company.

Second, not many teams have 40 grade prospects in their to 30 and we're one of them. So a number of other teams could have a few additional 45 grade guys that aren't listed.

While it would be nice to have an elite prospect or two like the white sox or atlanta, that's primarily a consequence of getting a top draft pick, spending internationally, or going through a full rebuild. Something we haven't been able to do since I can remember. The latter of which is fine by me. The truly dangerous systems in my opinion are the ones with lots of talent in the 50-55 range.

Most of the really good system are teams that likely aren't going anywhere for awhile and those systems are likely to get even better. Most of the elite prospects are going to graduate to the majors this year which will bring the teams who have them down a considerable amount.

Steps forward by Thaiss, Jones, and a few others as well as a top 10 pick and some international signings will put us in the 2nd tier by year's end or at least at the top of the 3rd tier. The good news (and bad) is that we really won't be losing anyone of significance to the majors as per these rankings.

Things are coming around.

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