http://www.asia-monitor.com Asia Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2013, Business Monitor International Ltd Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator The Puea Thai Party (PTP) is urging protesters to maintain peace and calm, following an armed attacked on rubber and oil palm growers on September 1. The incident resulted in the death of one security guard among protesters and seriously injuring another. Police said that the armed men fired five gun shots at the protesting farmers, who are calling for an increase in rubber prices. Meanwhile, Prompong Nopparit, a spokesman of the PTP, has dismissed claims that the government is connected to the attackers, urging protesters to allow the police to carry out investigation over the incident. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/165015/Thailand.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT The Vietnamese government and its Cambodian counterpart are planning to construct 13 new border gates along their border over the next seven years. The gates will be constructed in areas belonging to the Central Highlands and the Mekong Delta region. While the move is largely aimed at increasing cross-border trade, we also believe that the move will help to boost bilateral relations and strengthen cooperation between the two countries. There are presently 15 main border checkpoints between the two countries, and the Vietnamese government will upgrade the checkpoints' infrastructure to increase efficiency. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/165014/Vietnam.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT With federal elections approaching, both the ruling Australian Labor Party (ALP) and opposition Liberal-National coalition have been fielding new policies relating to infrastructure and other parental benefits, while delaying the arrival of fiscal rehabilitation. Indeed, this is a reflection of the increasing pressure on politicians to focus on fiscal measures that will boost the economy in the short-term rather than changes to policies to yield longer term growth prospects as the economy remains relatively weak compared to the boom years. There is a risk that this short-term mindset will persist after elections and present downside risk to Australia's long-term growth prospects. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164554/Australia.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT Although Fiji's near-term economic growth is likely to be supported by increasing government spending, we highlight that political risk is on the rise, despite the government's recent release of a new constitution. While the new constitution acknowledges changing trends in the population with its revised residency requirement for voting, the reduced independence of the judicial authorities and persistent operational concerns surrounding indigenous land rights pose significant downside risks to Fiji's business environment. Thus, we see heighten uncertainty in Fiji's long-term growth prospects with a growing risk of that 2014 elections will be delayed. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164553/Rising-Political-Risks-Threaten-Long-Term-Prospects.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT Australia's Q113 GDP came in at an annualised rate of 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in seasonally-adjusted terms, marking a slowdown from the growth rate of 3.2% recorded in the previous quarter, with the performance indices across manufacturing, services and construction all in contractionary territory. While the manufacturing sector has since experienced some reprieve due to the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar, we believe that this is will prove insufficient for the sector to regain its competitiveness. As such, we expect that the recent bounce in the Australian Industry Group's manufacturing performance index in June is unlikely to last, and expect industrial production to slow to expand at 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) at end-2013 from Q113's expansion rate of 4.2%. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/162721/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Australia.html Tue, 02 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT The weakening Australian economy has led both the central bank and government to employ various policies to bolster and strengthen it, including the latest proposal to implement a bank levy to create a bail-out fund. While the proposal is a positive as it sets out long-term revenue stream to grow the government's arsenal, the fund will still be too small to cover a failure in the near term and does not assess the riskiness of banks' balance sheet. Thus, some form of cross-subsidising could occur, and smaller banks are likely to suffer a larger impact to their return on assets. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164558/Bank-Levy-A-Good-Start-To-Address-Potential-Bailout-Costs.html Fri, 30 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT Our forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to ease rates in the August policy meeting played out, as Australian authorities increasingly accepting the reality that the domestic economy is facing a structural slowdown. The poor performance of business credit in June, together with the deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector in July, were key in persuading the RBA to cut rates to support businesses. We maintain that weakening fundamentals will eventually weigh on house prices, and do not expect the housing market's current robust performance to deter the RBA from easing. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164559/Business-Pain-To-Motivate-More-Monetary-Easing.html Fri, 30 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT While the opposition Liberal-National coalition had previously planned for measures to rehabilitate Australia's fiscal accounts, its recent move to introduce new expenditure plans and announce the delay the return to surplus is in line with our forecasts for the country's fiscal deficit to loom until fiscal year 2020/2021 despite a possible change in government. Although there remains a possibility for tax reforms to help improve the country's fiscal trajectory, the increase in short-termism in the government's outlook appears likely to persist. This suggests that projects and expenditures which may not return long-term benefits may be implemented in the hope of boosting the economy in the short-run. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164560/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Australia.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT Although Papua New Guinea's government has enacted aggressively expansionary fiscal policy in order to tackle a lull in economic activity, we believe that its fiscal trajectory remains sustainable in view of its strong revenue growth outlook over the coming years. At the same time, we note that strong economic growth will need to be accompanied by a material improvement in the country's ailing labour market in order to avoid social and political unrest over the medium term. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164557/Aggressive-Fiscal-Policy-Counteracting-Cyclical-Lull.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT The violence in southern Thailand has escalated in recent months with insurgents conducting several coordinated attacks, as well as targeting critical infrastructure. The most disturbing development was the spate of attacks on the general population since the start of 2008. There are now concerns that the insurgency is no longer focused on establishing an independent Muslim Pattani state, but rather is developing into sectarian violence, with teachers and similar government-sector employees bearing the brunt of many attacks. Such attacks are a setback for peace negotiations as the government undertake stronger efforts to address the insurgency. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164903/Thailand.html Fri, 26 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Taiwan is planning to invest an amount worth more than US$100mn in constructing a dock in the disputed Spratly islands that would have a capacity to accommodate warships, according to a legislator Lin Yu-fang (AFP). This move comes as other claimants are increasing their regional military presence. The plan has already been presented to parliament on August 29 by the coastguard and it would involve spending of TWD3.4bn (US$112.4mn). The plan is likely to secure approval by parliament, according to sources. The dock is expected to start operations in 2016. 'National security authorities have decided to expedite the project as the other countries in the region have been increasing their naval and air force deployment in the past few years, further complicating the issue,' Yu-fang said (AFP). http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164541/Taiwan.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai has called for the support of Pakistan in carrying out peace talks with the Taliban. This came during a meeting on August 26 between Karzai and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who promised to provide his full support. Pakistan supported Taliban in taking over power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s and played a vital gatekeeper in attempts by the US and Afghan governments to contact insurgent leaders who moved to Pakistan after the ousting of the group in 2001. However, Afghanistan has long put accusations on Pakistan of enabling its military playing a spoiling role despite making pronouncements about peace. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164540/Pakistan.html Wed, 28 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT The Sri Lankan government's agenda for fiscal consolidation is starting to become increasing difficult to sustain as the low-hanging fruit has mostly been picked. Indeed, while the administration has had some success in curtailing expenditures, revenues have proved much tougher to come by. It is in this context that one has to view the latest ad hoc revenue-enhancing measures, with more of such measures likely to be enacted in the years to come as long as the government continues to struggle with a declining revenue base. Total revenues as a percentage of GDP has fallen to an all-time low of just 13% as of 2012. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164539/Sri-Lanka.html Wed, 28 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT The Indian government has revoked a pair of patents covering products from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Roche. The Intellectual Property Appellate Board upheld a patent granted to the original compound of GSK's Tykerb, but rejected the patent for the salt formulation of lapatinib used in Tykerb. Meanwhile, the Kolkata patent office has lifted the divisional patent for Roche's Herceptin, stating that the patent application had not been submitted properly. These revocations continue to highlight India's strong stance against supposedly 'non-innovative' products, adding to the intellectual property woes foreign firms are facing in the country. We maintain our pessimistic view on India's pharmaceutical industry. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164538/India.html Wed, 28 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT Indonesian Finance Minister M Chatib Basri said on August 28 that the government has unveiled four new fiscal policies to narrow the growing current account deficit (The Jakarta Globe). Under the new policies, companies in bonded zones will be permitted to access the zone's tax breaks if they export at least 50% of their output, down from 75% set previously by the government. The government has also scrapped luxury sales tax on goods, such as air conditioners, and has granted a 25% discount on income tax for labour-intensive industries. The policies intend to ensure that the government's economic package announced on August 23 has a sustained medium- and long-term impact. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/164537/Indonesia.html Mon, 02 Sep 2013 00:00 GMT