Asia Monitor RSS Feed

Few Risks To Political Stability (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00 GMT

Despite the sluggish progress made on universal suffrage, and the recent rise in discontent over spiralling property prices, we see few risks to political stability over the medium term. Indeed, Hong Kong's score of 86.7 out of 100 in our short-term political risk ratings reflects solid ratings in all categories, and ranks the island second in the region behind Singapore.

Macroeconomic Forecast Malaysia (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

Forecast

Ratings Update - Thailand (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

Opposition Puea Thai Party chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's visit to Cambodia in mid October has drawn sharp criticisms from the government, which insists that Chavalit stay out of Thailand's diplomatic affairs. The key issue lies with comments by the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen who insists that exiled former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is welcome in Cambodia, effectively taking an opposing stand from the Thai government which is seeking his extradition, possibly further straining ties between Phnom Penh and Bangkok. Tensions arose between the two sides earlier in 2009 over the disputed Preah Vihear temple.

Growth Gathers Pace (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

China's economy grew by 8.9% y-o-y in Q309. This was an improvement on Q209's 7.9% growth, indicating that the Chinese authorities' US$586bn fiscal stimulus, in conjunction with looser monetary policy, has helped the economy to rebound.

Estrada Runs Again While Remittances Sustain Growth (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

The Philippines' former president Joseph Estrada has announced that he will run for presidency again in the 2010 elections. Estrada, who was removed from office in 2001 over corruption charges, will run on a 'pro-poor ticket', by emphasising social welfare programmes. However, it is unclear whether Estrada is eligible to run again, as the Philippines' constitution bans presidents from seeking a second term. With less than a year to go before the May 2010 polls, there is still a high level of uncertainty shrouding the future of Philippine politics. Nonetheless, the fragmented opposition may mean the return of the ruling

Singapore (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced on October 13 that the government will extend the ongoing Jobs Credit programme for six months. However, the scheme will involve two stepped-down payouts in March and June 2010. The programme - aimed at reducing the cost of each employee - is instrumental in helping businesses cope with the downturn and is effective in helping Singapore limit the extent of job losses. Going forward, businesses are likely to cheer the gradual paring down of this policy, as opposed to a complete withdrawal amid further signs of economic recovery. Funding of the programme in 2010 will come from the regular budget as opposed to past reserves.

Indonesia (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's new cabinet offered no real surprises and we view the reappointment of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Trade Minister Mari Pangestu as reassuring factors for Indonesia's short-to-medium term economic outlook. However, much is expected of Yudhoyono's second term as reflected in the massive gains in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) this year. Should Yudhoyono fail to live up to expectations, the JCI may be set for a sizable correction and we also highlight slight downside risks to our conservative average annual GDP growth forecast of 5.0% for the coming five years.

Macroeconomic Forecast China (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

Despite the surge in loan growth seen in China in recent years, the non-performing loan ratio has continued to decline, coming in at 1.77% in September.

Macroeconomic Forecast Philippines (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

In offsetting the global economic crisis, we expect the Philippines to run a large fiscal deficit for 2009, amounting to PHP291.5bn (US$6.2bn, or 3.9% of GDP). Indeed, Philippine Finance Secretary Margarito Tevas on October 19 revealed that the government revenue shortfall in September came in at PHP27.5bn, which was 27.3% higher than the PHP53.4bn registered in the same month a year ago. This brought the total fiscal deficit for the January-September period to PHP237.5bn, reaching 81.5% of our forecast for 2009. However as economic conditions improve, we forecast the budget gap to shrink to 3.5% of GDP (or PHP282.3bn) in 2010.

New North-South Summit Would Not Break Nuclear Deadlock (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

BMI View: A new summit between the two Koreas, rumoured to be under discussion, would be symbolically important, but we would not expect it to persuade the North to denuclearise. Meanwhile, Pyongyang's desire for a deal that would recognise its nuclear status is unlikely to be agreed by the South, meaning that the deadlock will continue.

Macroeconomic Forecast India (Asia Monitor - South Asia)

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

The Indian rupee made significant gains in November, strengthening from INR48.74/US$ on September 7 to INR47.01/US$ on October 26. This movement is in line with our market call that the rupee is attractive on both a fundamental and technical basis. On October 8 we identified that the rupee had moved through technical resistance and on October 1 we argued that India's likely superior economic growth, improving capital inflows and tightening monetary policy made the rupee very attractive fundamentally. We forecast the currency to reach INR46.50/US$ by end 2009, and have a long-term target of INR40.00/US$.

Tension Rising On Border (Asia Monitor - South Asia)

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

Tension between Bangladesh and Myanmar remains high with both capitals having reinforced troops on their joint border in October. The Bangladeshi army has reportedly deployed three brigades on the border after Myanmar increased its military presence in the area. Although the Myanmarese State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has been reticent about its motives, reports claim army troops are erecting barbed-wire fences in order to prevent Muslim Rohingyas fleeing into Bangladesh to escape persecution from the Buddhist-dominated regime. While tension is likely to persist we see a low risk of escalation. This is reflected in Bangladesh's security/external threats rating of

Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

Hong Kong's consumer prices inflation (CPI) rate bounced back into positive territory in September, rising to 0.5% y-o-y from -1.6% y-o-y in August.

Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh (Asia Monitor - South Asia)

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

We maintain our 5.5% real GDP growth forecast for FY2009/10 (July-June) as the export-focused manufacturing sector loses steam and agricultural growth is depressed by a high base. Growth should accelerate to 6.5% in FY2010/11, but an increased pace of reform will be needed to raise growth rates over the medium-to-long term. The government projected a GDP growth target for FY2009/10 of 5.5-6.0% percent in the budget presented on June 11, but Finance Minister AMA Muhith said on August 29 that this target may be raised.

Regime To Play China and US Against Each Other (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT

We believe the Obama administration's shift in the US's Myanmar policy from sanctions to engagement will enable the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to play off Washington against Beijing in order to exert more concessions from both parties. While an easing of sanctions will necessitate a step towards improved political rights, we believe the SPDC's main priority is to remain in power.