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Malaysia (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

Malaysia's ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party is considering broadening its voter base in future party elections from less than 1% of party members at present to about 25% of members in a bid to clamp down on vote buying. While this appears to be a positive step, we remain unconvinced that this measure (if implemented) will have any significant impact in the short term.

Hanoi To Avoid Further Confrontation In South China Sea (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

The seizure on June 21 of Vietnamese fishermen near the disputed Paracel islands spells a continuation of strained relations between Beijing and Hanoi in the short term, and we now see risks of a limited naval escalation in the disputed area. As there is little Hanoi can do on its own to counter the growing military might and assertiveness of Beijing, we expect Vietnam to seek to avoid further confrontation.

Macroeconomic Forecast South Korea (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

Although there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that South Korea is now beyond the worst of the economic downturn, we reiterate previous warnings about the slow, and somewhat uneven nature of the recovery. The main question marks, in our view, are the still-uncertain state of global demand (exports accounted for 63% of GDP in 2008), and the recovery of domestic consumption, which we expect to be slow given the country's high levels of personal debt. In light of these factors, we maintain our 2009 forecast of a 3.3% contraction, though acknowledge that this forecast is subject to increasing upside risks..

Economy Robust In 2008, But 2009 Will Be Very Tough (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

BMI View: North Korea's economy grew by an impressive 3.7% in 2008, due to 'one-off' factors, but this success is unlikely to be repeated in 2009, due to the severity of the global recession and the poorer geopolitical environment.

Macroeconomic Forecast Philippines (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

We have lowered our 2009 GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 0.9% after having made adjustments to our assumptions for capital investment and exports. We have also adjusted down our 2010 GDP growth forecast from 3.4% to 2.4%. Despite the lower growth projections, we still expect the Philippines to be a regional outperformer.

Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

We maintain our 2.9% growth forecast for 2009 after GDP grew by an estimated 3.1% y-o-y in Q109 following a revised 6.2% expansion in 2008. While the economy is likely to continue to suffer, we caution that Q109 could have been the bottom of the current downturn as heavy monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are now gaining traction. Nonetheless, we expect the recovery to be very gradual in nature and are forecasting GDP growth of a mere 5.0% in 2010.

Macroeconomic Forecast India (Asia Monitor - South Asia)

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

India posted growth of 5.8% y-o-y in both Q408 and Q109, which brought full-year growth in FY2008/09 (April-March) to 6.7%, the weakest reading since FY2002/03, but still to be considered relatively healthy in the current environment. We now acknowledge upside risks to our 5.0% GDP growth forecast for FY2009/10 due to expectations of a more conducive government policy improving sentiment, but caution that weak global growth will weigh on capital inflows and investment.

Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

Tension High In South China Sea (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

Deputy Foreign Minister Ho Xuan Son asked China on June 8 to stop preventing Vietnamese fishermen from doing their work in disputed parts of the South China Sea. Son claimed that increased Chinese patrols, including in Vietnamese waters, had led to a growing number of arrests and fines for 'normal fishing activities by Vietnamese fishermen in Vietnam's traditional fishing grounds'. Beijing stated ahead of the May 13 UN-set deadline for maritime claims that a joint petition submitted by Vietnam and Malaysia to the UN questioning the outer limits of China's continental shelf in the South China Sea was illegal and

Consumer Confidence Rises, Graft Remains Problematic (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

Navy chief of staff Admiral Tedjo Edhy Purdijatno announced on June 3 that the navy will request the Foreign Ministry to send a diplomatic note to Malaysia, protesting against the repeated 'trespassing' of Malaysian ships in the Ambalat waters off the eastern coast of Kalimantan. Indonesia claims the potentially oil-rich Ambalat region as part of its territory in accordance with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Malaysia has included area within its borders based on a 1979 maritime chart. The two countries will meet in July for border talks.

Politics Stable, Exports Down (Asia Monitor - South Asia)

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

The Lok Sabha (lower house) on June 3 unanimously elected Meira Kumar as the country's first woman speaker. Kumar is also a member of the dalit caste, or 'untouchables'. The appointment has been heralded as a positive step towards promoting equality for women and citizens who belong to the lower castes. Kumar was a beneficiary of India's reservation laws (affirmative action favouring the underprivileged castes) which allowed her to complete her tertiary education at Delhi University and subsequently join the Indian Foreign Service. President Pratibha Patil, who is also India's first woman president, has congratulated her appointment, saying that it

Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh (Asia Monitor - South Asia)

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

BMI View: Having revised our real GDP growth forecast for FY2008/09 (July-June) down to 4.8% (from 5.5% previously) in early 2009, we continue to believe that this figure is well-balanced in light of the challenges facing Bangladesh. As before, falling garments exports and remittances will be the main channel of transmission for the global economic crisis, while the ability of the government to support growth will be limited. Nevertheless, the economy should benefit from comparatively low commodity prices in 2009 as well as period of relative stability on the political front.

'Offensive Defence' Debate Accelerates (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

BMI View: Japan is likely to accelerate some of its military programmes following North Korea's increasingly aggressive moves of late. However, Japan's severe recession and shrinking population will act as a brake on its grander ambitions.

Economy Still Weak (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

On May 28, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that the government will allow greater opposition representation in parliament. Historically, there have been no more than four elected opposition members in parliament, which had been attained in the 1991 elections. Currently, there are 84 elected MPs, of which only two are from the opposition. Some of the key changes include an increase in the minimum number of opposition MPs, the reduction in the average size of group representation constituencies (GRCs), and an increase in the number of single member constituencies (SMCs). This will reduce the barriers-to-entry for aspiring opposition politicians.

Mounting Political And Economic Problems (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 2)

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

The Barisan Nasional (BN) supreme council announced on May 18 that the party would not contest the Penanti by-election, which was comfortably won by the opposition People's Justice Party (PKR) on May 29. Penanti is one of the three state seats within the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency, which is held by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. BN's no-show could be seen as a sign of weakness, but we believe that the coalition stands a better chance in regaining popularity if it concentrates on the economic recovery instead. Nevertheless, the coalition's decision not to field a candidate underscores its current