Daniel Lerch
Education & Publications Director
Post Carbon Institute

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Quotes of the Week

““Pivoting exports to Asia will take time and massive infrastructure investments that in the medium term will see Russia’s production and revenues drop precipitously. The situation will be aggravated by a lack of investments and foreign technologies, which will lead to lower drilling activity. Russia is, as a result, not expected to return to pre-conflict production levels even by 2026.” 

Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy

“[Diesel] fuel is a lot higher now, adding about $150 to the cost of a trip from Louisiana to Georgia. But I’ve got to come back home, so if I make two round trips in a week, that’s $600 extra a week for fuel, and that means $2,400 a month. That’s a monthly truck payment, so it’s like paying for a whole extra truck.”

Rodney Morine, an independent trucker based in Opelousas, La.

Graphics of the Week

Headlines for the week of May 9 – 13 

The Global Energy SituationIEA: lower demand changes everything for oil markets
Russia
Russia cuts gas supply to seized German Gazprom unit
Novak: Russia’s crude production up in May
Russia’s oil revenue is up 50% this year despite the boycott, IEA says

Europe

European gas prices soar after Moscow imposes sanctions on EU energy companies
EU drops plans to ban the shipping of Russian crude in face of opposition
EU readies 195 billion euro plan to quit Russian fossil fuels
Germany prepares crisis plan for an abrupt end to Russian gas – sources
The EU has a major problem with securing non-Russian gas
Historic price spikes, though down from March peaks, lead to record LNG imports into Europe
How Germany’s LNG terminals will morph into green hydrogen hubs

North America

U.S. retail gasoline prices hit new record–$4.38—as refiners struggle to meet demand
U.S. natural gas prices passed the $8 mark, get caught up in perfect storm
Soaring costs set to hurt U.S. shale production
US crude output growth expected to slow amid soaring costs
Biden scraps offshore oil auctions

China

China’s Iranian oil imports ease on poor margins, and the lure of Russian oil

Middle East

Saudi Aramco’s net profit soars 82% in Q1 on high oil prices
Iran says it can double oil exports if the market needs more barrels

The Global Economy

Global Covid-19 Summit upstaged by Ukraine war, inflation
Global stocks record longest weekly losing streak since the 2008 crisis
Dollar’s strength pushes world economy deeper into slowdown; Fed rate hikes hit global growth

Agriculture

Global wheat crop likely to fall for the first time in four years, US forecasts
Russia seizes more than 500,000 mt of grain from Ukraine: ministry
Russia talks of record wheat crop while world mulls output fall
Global agriculture markets jittery on worsening food inflation outlook

Russia

Four Russian governors resign as sanctions bite
Traders prepare to ditch Moscow ruble rate as market split grows

U.S.

Rising diesel costs are straining U.S. truckers, shipping operations

China

China’s economic slowdown is rippling all around the world
Shanghai aims to reopen more COVID-shut businesses, Beijing battles on

Asia

Unvaccinated North Korea locks down after reporting first local Covid infection
North Korea’s Kim says COVID ‘great turmoil’, 21 new deaths reported

Africa

Unvaccinated North Korea locks down after reporting first local Covid infection
North Korea’s Kim says COVID ‘great turmoil’, 21 new deaths reported

India

India buyers grab discounted Russia LNG shunned by rest of world
Indian Railways missed Coal India train provision targets for over a year- data shows
Production and logistical concerns cast a shadow over India’s wheat export potential
India bans wheat exports in a growing wave of food protectionism

Latin America

Panama Canal Authority suspends Neopanamax locks 49.5-foot draft restriction

Global Warming

Record wildfires threaten to wreak $200 billion in global damage

U.S.

Southwest US hydro outlook remains below normal, with snowmelt well underway
California’s water use soars despite pleas for conservation; highest March usage since 2015
Midsummer heat baking southern states with highs feeling like July
The temperature is the least surprising part of the Texas heatwave

Africa

The Horn of Africa ravaged by the worst drought in four decades

Asia

As record-setting heat blasts Pakistan, a glacial lake floods village

View full article at The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 16 May 2022

Quote of the Week

“What is clear, is that the glib confidence the government has that shale production can easily be ramped higher is misplaced. A combination of natural limitations, logistics, inflation, and human impacts is taking its toll, and the effects will become more evident as the year goes on.”

David Messler for Oilprice.com

Graphic of the Week

Headlines for the week of May 2 – 8 

The Global Energy SituationOil ends at near 3-week high as market supply worries resume
OPEC+ set to stick to modest oil output rises amid price rally
Russia
New EU sanctions to hit Russian oil, target more banks
Putin puts West on notice: Moscow can terminate exports and deals
Oil traders are already treating Russian crude like it’s banned
EU import ban could knock another 10% off Russia’s oil output

Europe

EU tweaks Russia oil sanctions plan in bid to win over reluctant states – sources
Germany to help eastern EU states without ports access LNG
EU rejects Russia’s ruble-for-gas scheme, warns of supply shock
Germany will have first LNG import capacity by year’s end
LNG ship arrivals to Europe rises over 20% on month in April

North America

Natural gas hits 13-year high price in the U.S. on growing supply jitters as demand soars
U.S. natural gas production growth wanes as need arises
U.S. fuel exports are draining domestic diesel and gasoline supplies
U.S. gasoline futures settle at $3.76, a record high ahead of summer (excl. taxes)
U.S. crude stocks build unexpectedly; fuels drawdown amid export surge –
The U.S. shale patch is facing a plethora of problems, esp. lack of financing
Chevron to ramp up production by 15% at biggest USA oil field
PG&E launches comprehensive study on hydrogen’s feasibility within gas pipelines
High electric bills get ready for another energy price spike: high electric bills
Electricity Shortage Warnings Grow Across U.S.
Shale producers face $42 billion in hedging losses

China

The U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia
Chinese tech giants quietly retreat from doing business with Russia
China’s oil giant says it’s not seeking discounted Russian fuel

Africa

Nigeria and Angola responsible for almost half of OPEC+ oil supply gap
Nigeria Is First Nation to Ground Flights as Fuel Costs Soar

Middle East

NOPEC: America’s Last Stand Against OPEC’s Drift To The Eas

The Global Economy

Decline in world conventional oil output and peak oil
Tight oil market myth becoming a reality

Agriculture

Facing a wheat crisis, countries race to remake an entire market on the fly
North Korea mobilizes office workers to fight drought amid food shortages
Extreme heatwaves seen putting pressure on India’s wheat output, export potential

Russia

Russia turns on spending taps to blunt economic impact of war and sanctions
Disconnecting Russia’s banks: Sberbank faces SWIFT removal
Russia can’t shake default risk after last-minute bond payment

U.S.

Record 4.5mn US workers quit jobs in March as the labor market tightens
U.S. productivity drops most since 1947, driving up labor costs
US stocks suffer the longest streak of weekly losses in over a decade
California says it needs more power to keep the lights on

China

China’s economy appears to be stalling, threatening to drag down global growth
Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment to zero-Covid rattles markets in China

India

Coronavirus pandemic far deadlier than the official count,
India asks coal plants to run flat out to ease the power crisis
India wants Russia to discount its oil to less than $70 a barrel
A 115-degree heatwave is making India’s power crisis worse

Global Warming

Deep under the Antarctic ice, scientists discover vast reservoir of ancient water

U.S.

Colorado River reservoirs are so low, the government is delaying releases
U.S. takes unprecedented steps to replenish Colorado River’s Lake Powel

Africa

The Horn of Africa ravaged by worst drought in four decades

View full article at The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 9 May 2022

Quote of the Week

“Scientists have determined that the extremely dry conditions over the past three years are part of a longer megadrought, which has persisted since 2000. Research published in February showed that this 22-year period is the driest in 1,200 years and is linked to human-caused climate change.”
            Kasha Patel and Jason Samenow, The Washington Post

Graphics of the Week

Headlines for the week of April 25 – May 2 

The Global Energy Situation
Oil posts fifth monthly gain and longest run since 2018
Russian threats redraw the global energy map
Russia
Russia’s eastern offensive appears to falter
Gazprom expects 4% fall in gas output in 2022

Europe

An EU embargo on Russian oil, which makes up ¼ of EU supply, is imminent
EU aims to end use of Russian oil, gas by 2027, Gentiloni tell newspaper
Germany drops opposition to embargo on Russian oil

North America

Gulf Coast LNG export frenzy raises tough questions for U.S., Europe
US gasoline, distillate stocks move lower on steady demand, strong exports
In the top U.S. oil field, a battle for workers, cash and equipment crimps growth
More of Europe’s crude supply is coming from deep in the heart of Texas
The oil rig count climbs by 3 to 552 as markets clamor for more oil
Fracking boom turns Texas into the earthquake capital of the U.S.
US EPA issues emergency fuel waiver to allow summertime E15 fuel sales

China

No quick recovery for China oil demand as COVID battle grinds on

Middle East

OPEC+ seen sticking to the current production arrangement

The Global Economy

Decline in world conventional oil output and peak oil
Tight oil market myth becoming reality

Agriculture

Corn and soybeans near-record prices, push food costs higher
The rich, black soil that fed a growing China is washing away
Cooking-oil chaos exacerbates a looming world hunger crisis
Russia’s war heats up cooking oil prices in global squeeze
Australia’s 2022-23 wheat output seen 20% lower on year to 29 million mt: USDA

Russia

 Russia sees 600,000 jobs at risk on foreign exodus, Tass reports
Ukrainian attacks bring war home to Russia, fraying civilian nerves

U.S.

Train delays bog down the U.S. farm sector

Europe

NATO says it’s ready to back Kyiv for years in the war against Russia
Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape the war with Russia
Eurozone economy keeps growing but recession risk looms
German cabinet backs possible nationalization of energy firms
EU weighs cap on the price paid for Russian oil as a way to hit Kremlin revenues
Rising energy prices push almost half of German companies to cut new investments – survey
Naftogaz chief warns of potential loss of Russian gas transit volumes via Ukraine
LNG terminals in Europe are filling up fast

China

China’s economy slows rapidly as Covid zero lockdowns bite
Panic buying in Beijing as district starts mass COVID testing
China is running out of ways to stem self-made market meltdown
Renminbi on course for steepest monthly fall as China’s economy slows
China meets banks to discuss protecting assets from US sanctions

India

Record India heatwave raises power cut fears
Heatwave in India leaves millions struggling to cope
Heatwave scorches India’s wheat crop, snags export plans
Power-hungry India halts passenger trains to free up track to move coal
Indian buyers pay steep prices for seaborne thermal coal as stocks fall, demand rises

Global Warming

La Niña may enter a rare third year. What that means.

U.S.

California declares historic water emergency measures amid drought
Vegas water intake now visible at drought-stricken Lake Mead

View full article at The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 2 May 2022

Quotes of the Week

“For a European company that wants to be aligned with the continent’s target for climate neutrality by 2050, these time scales present a problem. A European customer might want [natural] gas in 2025 or 2030, but not in 2040 and likely not by 2045. This mismatch prevents U.S. LNG projects from moving forward with European help.”

Nikos Tsafos, CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)

“Whether it’s $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we’re not going to change our growth plans. If the president wants us to grow, I just don’t think the industry can grow anyway.”

Scott Sheffield, CEO Pioneer Natural Resources

Graphic of the Week

Headlines for the week of April 18-24 

The Global Energy Situation

Rystad: Oil demand to sink by 1.4 million bpd
2022 oil demand expected to stay below 100mm barrels per day

Russia

Next phase of war will be pivotal for Russia and Ukraine, U.S. says
EC says ‘appears possible’ to make Russian gas payments under new pay-in-rubles decree
Russia’s gas exports to Europe this year could drop by one-third
The numbers behind an EU ban on Russian crude; could see the loss of >3mb/d near term

Europe

Europe can diversify from Russia faster than believed: Draghi
An EU embargo on Russian oil in the works – French minister
Germany pledges to halt all Russian oil imports by end of year

North America

US natural gas export fever tempered by costs and climate concerns
Permian drilling permits hit all-time monthly high
U.S. oil production climbs despite cautious drillers; EIA sees growth to 12.01 mbd year-end
U.S. rig count inches higher as oil rally halts; at 695, the count is up 45 since the Ukraine invasion
EIA: number of DUCs (4,273) falls to lowest on record; that’s down 42% in 14 months
It’s getting increasingly expensive to boost U.S. oil production: pricey labor, frac sand, steel, services
Permian gas production at risk by late 2023 as midstream capacity dwindles

China

Chinese oil demand set for 1.2 million bpd plunge in April
China imports 13% less crude oil from Saudi in March, 14% less from Russia

Middle East

Algeria struggles to meet the rising demand for its gas after the Russian invasion
The odds of a nuclear deal with Iran are shrinking every day
Iraq not likely to increase oil exports backs OPEC cuts as a success: finance minister

Latin America

Guyana considers creating its own state-owned oil company

The Global Economy

Citing Russia’s war, IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.6%
The drive to vaccinate the world against covid is losing steam
Ukraine war deepens debt woes across the developing world

Agriculture

Corn rallies further from a decade high as war stokes supply fears
Indonesia bans palm oil exports as global food inflation spikes

Russia

Russia blocks economic data, hiding effect of Western sanctions
U.S. banks set to write off $15 billion in Russian assets
Russia comes closer to default after swaps watchdog rules against ruble

U.S.

U.S. has provided the most financial support to Ukraine: $8.2 billion
Biden administration launches $6 bln nuclear power credit program; help existing nukes against rising costs

Europe

World Bank estimates Ukraine’s physical damage at roughly $60 billion so far

China

China’s oil demand is tumbling the most since the Wuhan lockdown
China’s sales index falls to a 22-month low during April lockdowns
China joblessness climbs, spending drops on Covid lockdowns
Shanghai fences up COVID-hit areas, fueling fresh outcry
China’s Xi sticks with COVID stance despite anger, economic headwinds
China’s GDP data hint at heavy cost of its zero Covid strategy
China’s economy grew 4.8% in first quarter, beating expectations
China’s daily coal output in March hits record high
China’s steel demand to fall in April amid slowing property sales, housing starts

India

India’s big industrial states plan massive coal imports to stave off shortages
India eyes Russian coal offered at steep discounted price amid domestic shortage
Eight-hour blackouts hit India after hottest March on record
India’s Reliance snaps up 15 million barrels of cheap Russian oil; 

Global Warming

U.S.

U.S. to grant $6.4 bln funding for projects, mostly transportation, to reduce carbon emissions

Europe

Climate change threatens Europe with new weather extremes

View full article at The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 25 April 2022

Quote of the Week

 “While China and India are not shying away from Russian crude—which sells at hefty discounts attracting price-sensitive buyers—the logistics of shipping oil from Russia’s Black Sea and Baltic ports to Asia and the scarce tanker availability, bank guarantees, and insurance for Russian cargoes would limit the amount of oil that Asia could take and compensate for lost barrels that are no longer going to Europe. –Tsvetana Paraskova, www.oilprice.com

Graphic of the Week

Headlines for the week of April 11-17 

California considers the four-day workweek
U.S. factory output rises more than forecast in broad advance

Europe

U.K. job market missing almost 600,000 people since Covid hit

China

More Chinese cities impose COVID curbs as Shanghai cases rise
Anti-virus shutdowns in China spread as infections rise
China’s Covid outbreak worsens as Shanghai cases top 26,000
Covid China: Elderly deaths contradict Shanghai figures
The pandemic statistics from China—no recent deaths?–are too good to be true
China port congestion worsens as 477 bulk ships waiting to berth
China’s Li issues third growth warning as Covid takes toll

India

India is stalling the W.H.O.’s efforts to make global Covid death toll public

Africa

Nigeria’s oil production dips to 1.24m bpd, lowest this year

Global Warming

United States

Wind passed coal, nuclear power in U.S. on March 28^th for first time on record

Europe

Europe’s sanction on Russian coal fosters call of duty toward energy transition

Africa

Heaviest downpour in six decades shuts key South African port

View full article at The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 18 April 2022

Quote of the Week

Commodities have room to soar by another 40 percent on top of the gains in recent months, as investors could pour more money into raw materials as a hedge against the highest inflation in 40 years.
            JPMorgan Chase & Co

Graphic of the Week

Headlines for the week of April 4-10 

The Global Energy Situation

Money Pouring Into Fossil Fuels Risks Climate Disaster, UN Report Warns
Oil Supply, Demand, and Prices Become Clear; oil anchored above $100
OPEC+ crude production falls as sanctions take a bite out of Russia:

Russia

Who is buying Russian crude oil and who has stopped
Russia Sidesteps Sanctions to Supply Energy to Willing World
Russian, Belarus refiners cut runs on mounting stocks, sanctions
Germany could end Russian oil imports this year – Scholz
The case for and against EU sanctions on Russian oil
Russia Coal and Oil Paid for in Yuan Starts Heading to China
Discounted Urals crude finds a growing outlet in Turkey: sources
Threat of EU coal embargo leaves Russia miners pinning hopes on shift to Asia
U.S. Congress Bans Imports Of Russian Crude Oil
Tanker Rates Are Soaring As Traders Shun Russian Oil Cargoes

Europe

EU agrees to adopt a fifth sanctions package, including a ban on Russian coal imports
Germany faces a steep recession if Russian oil and gas halted
Slovakia will stay united with EU against Russian gas payment demands, PM says
Germany Seizes Control of Gazprom Unit to Secure Gas Supply
EU’s full ban on Russian coal to be pushed back to mid-August -sources
U.K. Bets Big on Nuclear, Wind in Energy Security Strategy
Breaking ranks with EU, Hungary says ready to pay for Russian gas in rubles
Shell Warns of Up to $5 Billion Hit from Russia Exit
U.S. Doesn’t See EastMed Pipeline As Viable Alternative To Russian Gas
Algeria to Expand Natural Gas Exports to Italy by Almost Half

North America

NYMEX Henry Hub May remains near 13-year highs on supply concerns
U.S. Drilling Activity Has Risen 60% In One Year
Permian Takes the Lead As U.S. Drillers Add 16 Rigs
U.S. East Coast jet fuel costs soar on shortage fears
Yellen says full ban on Russian oil exports likely to cause ‘skyrocketing’ prices
New York jet fuel hits $7.59/gal, or $318.62/b, likely a refined products market record
U.S. LNG Exporter Signs Another Long-Term Deal With China
New York set to ban natural gas in new buildings -environmental groups

Middle East-North Africa-Central Asia

Saudi’s record crude oil price for Asia shows Russia’s war impact
Record Iraqi oil revenues top $11 billion in March
Rockets fall near oil field in Iraq’s Kurdistan as infrastructure attacks intensify

Asia

Asian LNG Demand Takes a Hit As Europe Pushes Up Prices

Latin America

Cuba struggles to buy fuel as imports from Venezuela dwindle -data

The Global Economy
Agriculture

Food Prices Jump Most on Record, 13% last month, as War Sparks Supply Chaos
The $120 Billion Global Grain Trade Is Being Redrawn by Russia’s War in Ukraine
Half of Harvests in Crop Giant Ukraine Could Be Wiped Out by War

Russia

Russia’s First Default in a Century Looks All But Inevitable Now
Russia Business Activity Falls into Contraction as Sanctions Hit
Ukraine War Sanctions Hit Home for Everyday Russians
Treasury Stops Russia From Paying Debt Through U.S. Accounts
Some of the Biggest Brands Are Leaving Russia. Others Just Can’t Quit Putin. Here’s a list.
Mocked as ‘Rubble’ by Biden, Russia’s Ruble Comes Roaring Back

North America

JP Morgan: Commodities Could Surge By Another 40%
U.S. Supply-Chain Pressures Soar to a Record, Index Shows
Why GM and Ford Stocks Have Driven Off Course

Europe

Ukraine War Reverberates in Europe’s Factories and Warehouses
German Factory Orders Fall as Economy Faces Ukraine War Fallout
U.K. Launches New Body to Manage Future Energy System Security

China

Manufacturers Grind to a Halt in China as Covid Lockdowns Expand
Shunned Oil Piling Up Off China as Virus Outbreak Worsens
Shanghai: Residents ‘running out of food’ in Covid lockdown
Shanghai Covid lockdown ‘will have a global effect on almost every trade’
China Covid Outbreak Hits Spending With More Damage to Come
China’s Services Sector Posts Steepest Decline Since Pandemic’s Start
Shanghai Avoided Covid Disaster for Two Years. Now We’re Locked Down.
World Bank says war shocks to drag on Asian economies
China Oil Demand Outlook Darkens
Shanghai’s Omicron Outbreak Corners Chinese Leader

India

India condemns killings in Ukraine’s Bucha in apparent hardening of stance
India to boost arms output, fearing shortfall from Russia

Latin America

One Of the Most Gas-Rich Countries In The World Is Facing An Energy Crisis: Argentina

Africa

Gasoline Subsidy To Cost Nigeria 10 Times More Than Budgeted
Nigeria’s electricity grid collapses for the second time in a month

Global Warming

UN Warns World Is on Course for Catastrophic Warming of 2.7°C
2021 Among Earth’s Hottest Years, UN Says as Climate Meetings Start

US

Climate change could cost the U.S. budget $2 trillion a year by the end of the century, the White House says
Alaska oil field gas leak estimated at 7.2 mln cubic feet
The World’s Electric Vehicle Fleet Will Soon Surpass 20 Million, from 1 million in 2016
New satellite-driven methane calculations could add visibility into US natural gas emissions

Europe

Poland Wants Coal Use Beyond EU Net-Zero Date in Security Push

View full article at The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 11 April 2022