Astrological Facts

22-year-old TikToker Predicts Bitcoin Price

2021-02-03T04:58:00.000-08:00

The age of social media is here to stay, with platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok acquiring greater global influence every day. Therefore, it is not surprising that in the social network of the moment, TikTok, cryptocurrencies are part of the conversation topics. Even with a 22-year-old TikToker who predicts the price of Bitcoin through astrology.

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When to trade bitcoin? When Saturn crosses Mercury, of course

2021-02-03T03:48:00.000-08:00

LONDON (Reuters) - Bitcoin seems so flighty, some might argue you may as well consult a crystal ball, read the runes or stare at the stars to divine the direction of the capricious cryptocurrency. Enter Maren Altman, bitcoin investor and astrologer.

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Indian Astrologer Predicts Donald Trump's Victory with 'Jupiter and Sun' in His Favour

2021-02-03T03:14:00.005-08:00

The battle for US presidential post is in its final stage with elections scheduled for November 3. Economic woos, coronavirus crisis, etc have been the burning issues this election season in America as Donald Trump and Joe Biden lock horns to take the lead.

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Astrology and the Trump Presidency

2021-02-03T02:51:00.003-08:00

Update: Trump has not realized the importance of this event, and did not resign today, as suggested. We are one day away from the most important Astrological event of our times. That’s right, the alignment of Jupiter and Saturn to form the Christmas Star or Star of Bethlehem.

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Pakistan Loses Control

2012-04-02T10:44:00.002-07:00

A recent poll suggests that half of Pakistan’s population believes that Pakistani strongman Pervez Musharraf, or military leaders very close to him, had something to do with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Pakistan may be the world’s center of wacky conspiracy theories, but this public perception should not be lightly dismissed. In fact the Pakistani military and its intelligence arm have deep ties in to the Islamic militants who considered Bhutto their greatest threat on the Pakistani political stage.

For those trying to make sense out of the tremendously complex, and tremendously important threads in Pakistan and Afghanistan that tie together Musharraf, the Pakistani senior military establishment, Pakistan’s Interservice Intelligence (ISI), the Taliban in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, tribal chiefs and groups, and various terrorist groups which float in the shadows between all of these players, Carlotta Gall and her colleague David Rohde offer an important contribution in today’s New York Times.

I first met Gall more than ten years ago when she was working for the BBC covering Central Asia. Even then she was a very rare figure, a Westerner who tenaciously dug in to learn what was going on. Gall never thought the answers were to be found in the lobbies of the Sheratons and Intercontinentals, which is where the bulk of the press corps seem to hang out to pick up their scoops. She went to the villages and small towns to form a solid picture of the situation and she probed insistently into the shadowy world of the Pakistani intelligence service and its various cat’s paws.

Her article today gives one of the best accounts of the relationship between ISI and their radical agents, and the ambiguity of much of this relationship. It’s mandatory reading.

Pakistan’s premier military intelligence agency has lost control of some of the networks of Pakistani militants it has nurtured since the 1980s, and is now suffering the violent blowback of that policy, two former senior intelligence officials and other officials close to the agency say. As the military has moved against them, the militants have turned on their former handlers, the officials said. Joining with other extremist groups, they have battled Pakistani security forces and helped militants carry out a record number of suicide attacks last year, including some aimed directly at army and intelligence units as well as prominent political figures, possibly even Benazir Bhutto.

The growing strength of the militants, many of whom now express support for Al Qaeda’s global jihad, presents a grave threat to Pakistan’s security, as well as NATO efforts to push back the Taliban in Afghanistan. American officials have begun to weigh more robust covert operations to go after Al Qaeda in the lawless border areas because they are so concerned that the Pakistani government is unable to do so. The unusual disclosures regarding Pakistan’s leading military intelligence agency — Inter-Services Intelligence, or the ISI — emerged in interviews last month with former senior Pakistani intelligence officials. The disclosures confirm some of the worst fears, and suspicions, of American and Western military officials and diplomats.

Promise pipelining

2012-04-02T04:39:00.002-07:00

The use of futures can dramatically reduce latency in distributed systems. For instance, futures enable promise pipelining, as implemented in the languages E and Joule, which was also called call-stream in the language Argus.
Consider an expression involving conventional remote procedure calls,
Each statement needs a message to be sent and a reply received before the next statement can proceed. Suppose, for example, that x, y, t1, and t2 are all located on the same remote machine. In this case, two complete network round-trips to that machine must take place before the third statement can begin to execute. The third statement will then cause yet another round-trip to the same remote machine.

The syntax used here is that of the language E, where x <- a() means to send the message a() asynchronously to x. All three variables are immediately assigned futures for their results, and execution proceeds to subsequent statements. Later attempts to resolve the value of t3 may cause a delay; however, pipelining can reduce the number of round-trips needed. If, as in the previous example, x, y, t1, and t2 are all located on the same remote machine, a pipelined implementation can compute t3 with one round-trip instead of three. Because all three messages are destined for objects which are on the same remote machine, only one request need be sent and only one response need be received containing the result. Note also that the send t1 <- c(t2) would not block even if t1 and t2 were on different machines to each other, or to x or y.
Promise pipelining should be distinguished from parallel asynchronous message passing. In a system supporting parallel message passing but not pipelining, the message sends x <- a() and y <- b() in the above example could proceed in parallel, but the send of t1 <- c(t2) would have to wait until both t1 and t2 had been received, even when x, y, t1, and t2 are on the same remote machine. The relative latency advantage of pipelining becomes even greater in more complicated situations involving many messages.
Promise pipelining also should not be confused with pipelined message processing in Actor systems, where it is possible for an actor to specify and begin executing a behaviour for the next message before having completed processing of the current message.

Futures and promises

2012-04-02T04:37:00.003-07:00

In computer science, future, promise, and delay refer to constructs used for synchronizing in some concurrent programming languages. They describe an object that acts as a proxy for a result that is initially unknown, usually because the computation of its value is yet incomplete.
The term promise was proposed in 1976 by Daniel P. Friedman and David Wise, and Peter Hibbard called it eventual. A somewhat similar concept future was introduced in 1977 in a paper by Henry Baker and Carl Hewitt.
The terms future, promise, and delay are often used interchangeably, although some differences in usage between future and promise are treated below. Setting the value of a future is also called resolving, fulfilling, or binding it.

Use of futures may be implicit (any use of the future automatically obtains its value, as if it were an ordinary reference) or explicit (the user must call a function to obtain the value, such as the get method of java.util.concurrent.Future in Java). Obtaining the value of an explicit future can be called stinging or forcing. Explicit futures may be implemented as a library, whereas implicit futures need language support.
The original Baker and Hewitt paper described implicit futures, which are naturally supported in the Actor model of computation and pure object-oriented programming languages like Smalltalk. The Friedman and Wise paper described only explicit futures, probably reflecting the difficulty of efficiently implementing implicit futures on stock hardware. The difficulty is that stock hardware does not deal with futures for primitive data types like integers. For example, an add instruction does not know how to deal with 3 + future factorial(100000). In pure object or Actor languages this problem can be solved by sending future factorial(100000) the message +, which asks the future to add 3 to itself and return the result. Note that the message passing approach works regardless of when factorial(100000) finishes computation and that no stinging/forcing is needed.

Physical versus cash-settled futures

2012-04-02T04:36:00.003-07:00

Settlement is the act of consummating the contract, and can be done in one of two ways, as specified per type of futures contract:
Physical delivery - the amount specified of the underlying asset of the contract is delivered by the seller of the contract to the exchange, and by the exchange to the buyers of the contract. Physical delivery is common with commodities and bonds. In practice, it occurs only on a minority of contracts. Most are cancelled out by purchasing a covering position - that is, buying a contract to cancel out an earlier sale (covering a short), or selling a contract to liquidate an earlier purchase (covering a long). The Nymex crude futures contract uses this method of settlement upon expiration
Cash settlement - a cash payment is made based on the underlying reference rate, such as a short term interest rate index such as Euribor, or the closing value of a stock market index. The parties settle by paying/receiving the loss/gain related to the contract in cash when the contract expires.[5] Cash settled futures are those that, as a practical matter, could not be settled by delivery of the referenced item - i.e. how would one deliver an index? A futures contract might also opt to settle against an index based on trade in a related spot market. ICE Brent futures use this method.
Expiry (or Expiration in the U.S.) is the time and the day that a particular delivery month of a futures contract stops trading, as well as the final settlement price for that contract. For many equity index and interest rate futures contracts (as well as for most equity options), this happens on the third Friday of certain trading months. On this day the t+1 futures contract becomes the t futures contract. For example, for most CME and CBOT contracts, at the expiration of the December contract, the March futures become the nearest contract. This is an exciting time for arbitrage desks, which try to make quick profits during the short period (perhaps 30 minutes) during which the underlying cash price and the futures price sometimes struggle to converge. At this moment the futures and the underlying assets are extremely liquid and any disparity between an index and an underlying asset is quickly traded by arbitrageurs. At this moment also, the increase in volume is caused by traders rolling over positions to the next contract or, in the case of equity index futures, purchasing underlying components of those indexes to hedge against current index positions. On the expiry date, a European equity arbitrage trading desk in London or Frankfurt will see positions expire in as many as eight major markets almost every half an hour.

Futures contract

2012-04-02T04:35:00.001-07:00

In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract between two parties to exchange a specified asset of standardized quantity and quality for a price agreed today (the futures price or the strike price) with delivery occurring at a specified future date, the delivery date. The contracts are traded on a futures exchange. The party agreeing to buy the underlying asset in the future, the "buyer" of the contract, is said to be "long", and the party agreeing to sell the asset in the future, the "seller" of the contract, is said to be "short". The terminology reflects the expectations of the parties -- the buyer hopes or expects that the asset price is going to increase, while the seller hopes or expects that it will decrease.
In many cases, the underlying asset to a futures contract may not be traditional commodities at all – that is, for financial futures the underlying asset or item can be currencies, securities or financial instruments and intangible assets or referenced items such as stock indexes and interest rates.
While the futures contract specifies a trade taking place in the future, the purpose of the futures exchange institution is to act as intermediary and minimize the risk of default by either party. Thus the exchange requires both parties to put up an initial amount of cash, the margin. Additionally, since the futures price will generally change daily, the difference in the prior agreed-upon price and the daily futures price is settled daily also. The exchange will draw money out of one party's margin account and put it into the other's so that each party has the appropriate daily loss or profit. If the margin account goes below a certain value, then a margin call is made and the account owner must replenish the margin account. This process is known as marking to market. Thus on the delivery date, the amount exchanged is not the specified price on the contract but the spot value (since any gain or loss has already been previously settled by marking to market).
A closely related contract is a forward contract. A forward is like a futures in that it specifies the exchange of goods for a specified price at a specified future date. However, a forward is not traded on an exchange and thus does not have the interim partial payments due to marking to market. Nor is the contract standardized, as on the exchange.

Next 100 Years

2012-04-02T04:33:00.001-07:00

The Next 100 Years is a 2009 non-fiction book by George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.

Friedman predicts a second American cold war with Russia in the 2010s. Friedman asserts that around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern European countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, who may form a military alliance during this period. According to Friedman's prediction, around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a second cold war.
Around this time, 2020, China will politically and culturally fragment as well, according to Friedman's prediction. Friedman asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society that will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. Friedman asserts that China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.
In the 2020s, and 2030's, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia, a new Turkish empire, a new Japanese empire, and a political and military alliance of Eastern European nations, referred to by Friedman as the "Polish Bloc". The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that the new Japanese empire and new Turkish empire will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. Friedman also speculates that Germany and Mexico may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, however, he thinks it generally unlikely. Friedman states that in this conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc", and probably with China, India,a united Korea and Great Britain which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France and Germany side with Turkey as well.

Possible effects of overconfidence

2012-04-02T04:31:00.003-07:00

Optimism bias can induce people to underinvest in primary and preventive care and other risk-reducing behaviors, such as abstinence from smoking. The overconfident may also inadequately react to legal threats and incentives, undermining the deterrent effect of liability rules.

Overconfidence causes many people to grossly underestimate their odds of making a payment late. Statistically, many people are quite likely to make at least one payment late due to the normal range of difficulties and delays in day-to-day life. Overconfidence bias causes these people to grossly underestimate the odds of this happening and therefore to accept grossly punitive fees and rates (e.g., an interest rate of nearly 30% on a credit card or similar line of credit) as a result of otherwise minor transgressions such as a late payment. Companies have exploited this bias by increasing interest rates to punitive rates for any late payment, even if it is to another creditor.
Overconfidence bias also causes many people to substantially underestimate the probability of having serious financial or liquidity problems, such as from a sudden job loss or severe illness. This can cause them to take on excessive debt under the expectation that they will do better than average in the future and be readily able to pay it off.

Optimism bias

2012-04-02T04:30:00.001-07:00

Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes overestimating the probability of positive events and underestimating that of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory superiority, it is one of the positive illusions to which people are generally susceptible. Excessive optimism can result in cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and delays when plans are implemented or expensive projects are built. More generally, they are related to the initiation of military conflicts and the creation of economic bubbles.

Forecasting

2012-04-02T04:29:00.001-07:00

Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. The process of climate change and increasing energy prices has led to the usage of Egain Forecasting of buildings. The method uses Forecasting to reduce the energy needed to heat the building, thus reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. Forecasting has also been used to predict the development of conflict situations. Experts in forecasting perform research that use empirical results to gauge the effectiveness of certain forecasting models. Research has shown that there is little difference between the accuracy of forecasts performed by experts knowledgeable of the conflict situation of interest and that performed by individuals who knew much less. Similarly, experts in some studies argue that role thinking does not contribute to the accuracy of the forecast. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. An important, albeit often ignored aspect of forecasting, is the relationship it holds with planning. Forecasting can be described as predicting what the future will look like, whereas planning predicts what the future should look like. There is no single right forecasting method to use. Selection of a method should be based on your objectives and your conditions (data etc.). A good place to find a method, is by visiting a selection tree. An example of a selection tree can be found here. Although quantitative analysis can be very precise, it is not always appropriate. Some experts in the field of forecasting have advised against the use of mean square error to compare forecasting methods.

Foresight

2012-04-02T04:27:00.001-07:00

In futures studies, especially in Europe, the term "foresight" has become widely used to describe activities such as:
critical thinking concerning long-term developments,
debate and effort to create wider participatory democracy,
shaping the future, especially by influencing public policy.
In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some European countries in policy-making . The FORSOCIETY network brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project is collating material on Foresight activities around the world. In addition, foresight methods are being used more and more in regional planning and decision –making (“regional foresight”).
At the same time, the use of foresight for companies (“corporate foresight”) is becoming more professional and widespread Corporate foresight is used to support strategic management, identify new business fields and increase the innovation capacity of a firm.
Foresight is not the same as futures research or strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as:
futures (forecasting, forward thinking, prospectives),
planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and
networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations.
Much futures research has been rather ivory tower work, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the "usual suspects" and gather widely distributed intelligence. These three lines of work were already common in Francophone futures studies going by the name la prospective. But in the 1990s we began to see what became an explosion of systematic organisation of these methods in large scale TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT programmes in Europe and more widely. Foresight thus draws on traditions of work in long-range planning and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, and participatory futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies".
Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with:
The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away(though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizon may well be half a century).

Clarke's three laws

2012-04-02T04:17:00.004-07:00

Clarke's Three Laws are three "laws" of prediction formulated by the British writer and scientist Arthur C. Clarke. They are:
When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

The first of the three laws, previously termed Clarke's Law, was proposed by Arthur C. Clarke in the essay "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination", in Profiles of the Future (1962).
The second law is offered as a simple observation in the same essay; its status as Clarke's Second Law was conferred on it by others.
In a 1973 revision of his compendium of essays, Profiles of the Future, Clarke acknowledged the Second Law and proposed the Third in order to round out the number, adding "As three laws were good enough for Newton, I have modestly decided to stop there". Of the three, the Third Law is the best known and most widely cited. It may be an echo of a statement in a 1942 story by Leigh Brackett: "Witchcraft to the ignorant, .... Simple science to the learned". Even earlier examples of this sentiment may be found in Wild Talents by author Charles Fort where he makes the statement: "...a performance that may some day be considered understandable, but that, in these primitive times, so transcends what is said to be the known that it is what I mean by magic."
Clarke's Third Law codifies perhaps the most significant of Clarke's unique contributions to speculative fiction. A model to other writers of hard science fiction, Clarke postulates advanced technologies without resorting to flawed engineering concepts (as Jules Verne sometimes did)[ or explanations grounded in incorrect science or engineering, or taking cues from trends in research and engineering (which dates some of Larry Niven's novels). Accordingly, the powers of any future superintelligence or hyperintelligence which Clarke often described would seem astonishing.

Calculating demand forecast accuracy

2012-04-02T04:15:00.002-07:00

Calculating demand forecast accuracy is the process of determining the accuracy of forecasts made regarding customer demand for a product.

Calculating the accuracy of supply chain forecasts

Forecast accuracy in the supply chain is typically measured using the Mean Absolute Percent Error or MAPE. Statistically MAPE is defined as the average of percentage errors. Most practitioners, however, define and use the MAPE as the Mean Absolute Deviation divided by Average Sales. This is in effect a volume weighted MAPE. This is also referred to as the MAD/Mean ratio.
A simpler and more elegant method to calculate MAPE across all the products forecasted is to divide the sum of the absolute deviations by the total sales of all products.
Calculating forecast error

The forecast error needs to be calculated using actual sales as a base. There are several forms of forecast error calculation methods used, namely Mean Percent Error, Root Mean Squared Error, Tracking Signal and Forecast Bias.

Applied Foresight Network

2012-04-02T04:14:00.001-07:00

Applied Foresight Network (AFN) is a global web of university-based centres connected by a network of forums for professors, students, teachers, and concerned citizens. The AFN supports informed discussion and social action on issues of critical importance to the future of humanity. The Applied Foresight Centers and the AFN Forums build on Futures Studies traditions of multidisciplinary perspectives thinking and enhance this capacity with transdisciplinary dialogue supported by the latest in academic research.
Working on two levels, a key objective of the AFN is to support professors, students, teachers, and other concerned citizens to think globally and act locally. Autonomous Applied Foresight Centers will set their own local agendas and collaborate with the Network on a strategic set of global issues. Given the applied nature, and its bridge between the arts and sciences, the AFN is expected to become an important research resource and pulse taking tool for the development of public policy at local, national and international levels.
With representatives from the University of British Columbia, the University of Victoria, the Pacific Research Institute, and Simon Fraser University, the Applied Foresight Network coordinating hub is in the Humanities Department at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada. This AFN Coordinating Centre expects to manage start-up and ongoing operations, become a research initiator and repository for forum topics, and catalyze further social action, both individual and collective. The coordinating hub leadership fully expects to develop a key role for the AFN in the development of public policy at all levels. As well, it is exploring both Clearinghouse and Futures Studies educational program and issues research needs.

Future of Humanity Institute

2012-04-02T04:13:00.000-07:00

Future of Humanity Institute is part of the Faculty of Philosophy and the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, England. Founded in 2005, its director is Nick Bostrom.
The Institute's mission is to use an interdisciplinary approach in researching areas of utmost importance to humanity, such as the effect of future technology on the human condition and the possibility of global catastrophes, and to promote public engagement in government, businesses, universities, and other organizations, while fostering informed discussion among their stakeholders.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

2012-04-02T04:11:00.003-07:00

Technological Forecasting and Social Change (formerly: ''' Technological Forecasting''') is a peer reviewed academic journal published by Elsevier which discusses futures studies, technology assessment, and technological forecasting. Articles focus on methodology and actual practice. Among other things, the journal is a major source of discussion on the Delphi method. It has been published since 1969. The editor in chief is Fred Phillips. According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2009 impact factor of 1.776.

State of the Future

2012-04-02T04:10:00.003-07:00

State of the Future is an annual report published since 1996. Since 2009 it was published by The Millennium Project. It was published by the American Council of the United Nations University from 1997 to 2006 and in 2007 and 2008 under the auspices of the World Federation of United Nations Associations. It has also been published in Chinese by the Chinese Finance and Economic Publishing House 1999-2007 and by the Ministry of Science and Technology 2008-2010. Others have published it in Spanish, Arabic, French, Korean, Russia, Persian, Czech, and Azeri. It covers research and studies carried out under The Millennium Project. The editors-in-chief are Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu.

15 Global Challenges

"15 Global Challenges" have been defined and tracked since 1997 in the reports. The challenges were defined by the Project's Global Outlook Panel through modified Delphi method questionnaires and are updated annually. The material exists in several languages and the inputs have come from the project's forty nodes around the world. The descriptions of each challenge include a review of the current state of affairs, approaches to address the challenge, and regional perspectives.

International Journal of Forecasting

2012-04-02T04:10:00.000-07:00

International Journal of Forecasting is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal on forecasting. It is published by Elsevier on behalf of the International Institute of Forecasters. Its objective is to "unify the field of forecasting and to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers". It was established in 1985. According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2010 impact factor of 1.853.

Future Is Better Than You Think

2012-04-02T04:08:00.003-07:00

Future is Better Than You Think is a book written by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler and published in 2012. They propose that even though there has been tremendous illness, natural destruction, and human violence throughout human history the global standard of living continues to increase due to technological change. It is their assertion that cognitive biases keep us from appreciating these changes and planning for them.

Time magazine wrote of the book's message: "The future is going to be better than you think. That might be hard to believe given the constant stream of dread that is the daily news—and the endless well of fear that seems to be the future—but a close look at the numbers indicates that things are better than we believe."
The Washington Post said the book is, "a heavy dose of optimism... The authors make a persuasive case that mankind’s future may not be as bleak as we fear..."
The San Francisco Chronicle said that the book's authors "argue forcefully against two prevailing notions: that the world's resources are being depleted too rapidly, and that the gap between the rich and the poor is widening beyond repair. They cite the rise of do-it-yourself innovation, fabulously rich 'technophilanthropists' who intend to use their deep pockets to change the world, and what they've termed the 'rising billion': the world's poor, who, thanks to modern communication technology, now have a voice."
The Wall St. Journal wrote, "Diamandis and Kotler think that individual innovators can and will make huge differences to human living standards... Take Iqbal Quadir, who quit his job as a venture capitalist in New York to start a cellphone company in his native Bangladesh, at a time when cellphones cost nearly twice the annual income of the average Bangladeshi. He had the foresight to bet on falling costs and the usefulness of the new technology for the long-isolated rural poor."

Age of Spiritual Machines

2012-04-02T04:07:00.001-07:00

Age of Spiritual Machines is a book by futurist Ray Kurzweil about the future course of humanity, particularly relating to the development of artificial intelligence and its impact on human consciousness. It is also a study on the concept of technological singularity.

2019
A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain.
The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human species.
Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
Rotating computer memories are no longer used.
Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
All students have access to computers.
Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"--in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.
While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
Ubiquitous connectivity high bandwidth communications connection to the Internet at all times
Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface
Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis)

World Futures Studies Federation

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World Futures Studies Federation is a global non-governmental organization that was founded in 1973 to promote the development of futures studies as an academic discipline.

The Federation was chartered at the 1973 meeting of the International Futures Research Conference.
Past organization presiden Eleonora Barbieri Masini said in 2005: "The vision of the Federation is just as valid today as it was when the Federation started. It can still perform the role of a modest bridge between people who are concerned with building a humane world."

Relationship with UNESCO

UNESCO financed the participation of nationals of developing countries in the events organized by the WFSF until the end of the 1990s. Subsequently, UNESCO supported the organization of Introductory Courses in Futures Studies in the Asia Pacific Region, e.g. Fiji Islands in 1993; the Philippines in 1994. This was followed by funding for Futures Studies courses held in Budapest in 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005.

Partnerships

The World Futures Studies Federation has partnerships with institutions like University of Hawaii, Turku School of Economics and RMIT University Global Cities Research Institute, Melbourne [6] as well as other international groups like Club of Rome.

World Future Society

2012-04-02T04:03:00.002-07:00

World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization in Bethesda, Maryland, US, founded in 1966. The society investigates how social, economic and technological developments are shaping the future. It seeks to help individuals, organizations, and communities observe, understand and respond to social change appropriately and investigates the benign effects of applying anticipatory thinking to society.
Through its magazine The Futurist, media, meetings, and dialogue among its members, it endeavors to raise awareness of change and encourage development of creative solutions. The society takes no official position on what the future may or should be like. Instead it seeks to provide a neutral forum for exploring possible, probable, and preferable futures.

The Futurist
The Futurist, a full-color bimonthly magazine that reports on a technological, societal, and public policy trends. Among the thinkers and experts who have contributed to The Futurist in the past year are: MIT architecture scholar William G. Mitchell: Washington Post writer Joel Garreau; inventor Ray Kurzweil; Foresight president J. Storrs Hall; Daniel Barnett of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health on flu pandemic; Former Harper's editor Lewis Lapham; Center for Strategic International Studies senior fellow Edward N. Luttwak; Pulitzer Prize nominee James Martin; U.S. Comptroller General David M. Walker; and former CIA director Robert James Woolsey, Jr., among many others.
THE FUTURIST magazine’s print edition continues to be the world's most popular publication about the future. In 2011, THE FUTURIST featured the writing of technology "maverick" Kevin Kelly, marketing guru Seth Godin, nature writer Richard Louv, Internet-freedom scholar Evgeny Morozov, environmentalist and MacAuthur Fellow Lester Brown among many other thought leaders. We explored the future of work, healthcare, energy, and education, and featured exclusive and on location coverage of the Japanese tsunami and its aftermath.
THE FUTURIST was nominated for a 2007 Utne Independent Press Award for Best Science and Technology Coverage.
The Futurist has published articles by forecaster and Smart Money columnist Jamais Cascio, NASA chief research scientist Dennis Bushnell, Financial Times economist Martin Wolf,[3] workplace expert John Challenger and Wall Street Journal "Gen X" columnist Alexandra Levit. The magazine published exclusive interviews with former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, serving U.S. congressman Dennis Kucinich,[5] Harvard evolutionary biologist Marc Hauser, as well as inventor (and World Future 2010 featured speaker) Ray Kurzweil.
The Futurist featured coverage on:
Powering an energy-hungry civilization with uranium, sunlight, wind, the gulf stream, garbage, ammonia, algae, other sources.
The potential impact of artificial intelligence and nanotechnology on invention and manufacturing,
Changing the weather to combat climate change,
How to create your own artificial island nation,
The job market of the 21st century,
The future of national security in the age of cyber warfare, by former White House advisor Marvin Cetron,
The influence of neuroscience on traditional ideas of morality.