Astros County: Your Neighborhood Astros Blog & Grill

Grantland, on the Astros

2012-02-15T10:38:00.003-06:00

Click here to read Jonah Keri's 2012 Astros preview, complete with jokes and humorous observations about the roster and front office.

Money quote:
Nearly everything that could have wrong for this franchise already has over the past few seasons. Unless Luhnow gets bone spurs in his hippocampus, the slow-and-steady rebuilding job will proceed as planned.

Selig and Fox teaming up to screw over Saturday night baseball fans

2012-02-15T09:26:00.005-06:00

The Sporting News says that Fox is going to show prime time Saturday games for eight consecutive weeks, beginning May 19.

This likely means that there will be no watching Astros games in this time frame, since MLB and Fox will make you watch the game they want you to watch, and black out all the other games. The games you probably won't be able to see, unless Fox picks the Astros for regional coverage:

May 19: Astros v. Rangers
May 26: Astros @ Dodgers
June 2: Astros v. Reds
June 16: Astros @ Rangers

So those are the evening games. The May 26 game at LA is a 9:10pm CT start, so I'm not sure about that one. But if there really are going to be primetime blackouts to accommodate Fox forcing us to watch the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies, we'll miss both Astros/Rangers Saturday games (unless that's one of the games Fox picks). Still waiting on word about MLB.tv viewers, but regardless, good work strengthening that rivalry, Selig.

Milo to retire

2012-02-14T16:21:00.003-06:00

David Barron says that the 2012 season will be broadcaster Milo Hamilton's final year calling Astros games, which he has done since 1985.

An Astros official would not confirm the scheduled news conference, and Hamilton declined comment Tuesday afternoon. However, two people with knowledge of the situation confirmed plans for the announcement, and local advertising agencies received notice Tuesday that Hamilton has scheduled his announcement for Wednesday.

2012 will be his 57th year in the booth calling baseball games.

"Don't even hope," says ESPN

2012-02-14T13:04:00.003-06:00

Jim Bowden, Keith Law, and Buster Olney took a look (Insider-Only) at the Future Power Rankings, based on five categories:

MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster
MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?
MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old immovable guys?

How do the Astros shake out? 29th - ahead of only the Orioles. Here was their breakdown:

Majors: 1 (presumably 0 is the lowest score)
Minors: 8
Finances: 9
Management: 10
Mobility: 14

Olney:
The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years.

So there you have it! If you have any hope at all, you are an idiot. Apparently.

The Astros don't need to see Scott Kazmir

2012-02-14T11:28:00.003-06:00

So Brian McTaggart said this morning that the Astros will not be present for Scott Kazmir's workout tomorrow. You know where the workout is? Houston.

Says McTaggart:
They saw him two weeks ago and are up to date.

Jeebus, I'd go just to get out of the office for a little while. Maybe get a bagel and a cup of coffee.

Survivor: Kissimmee - Starting Rotation

2012-02-14T08:00:00.006-06:00

The Astros will have 852 players* in camp, vying for the 25-man roster on Opening Day. Let Astros County help you make sense of it. (* - Approximately). Today, we start with the starting rotation, for starters.

The Locksmiths

Wandy Rodriguez

Wandy just might be the only player making more than $1m who will actually be worth his salary. He'll make $10m in 2012, and while his K/9 rate has declined in each of the last four seasons (8.58, 8.45, 8.22, 7.82) and his BB/9 has increased in each of the last three (2.76, 3.14, 3.25), he's still the number one starter - provided he doesn't get traded before Opening Day. From 2009-11, Wandy is 36-35 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 118 ERA+, and a 2.69 K:BB ratio.

Brett Myers

Brett Myers is lucky that Ed Wade loves his Phillies. Myers certainly wasn't as bad as his 2009 indicated (-0.6 WAR, 6.14 FIP), but it was pretty clear that he wasn't as good as his 2010 indicated (4.0 WAR, and his first sub-4.00 FIP since 2007). Still, Myers got his deal ($11m in 2012, $10m in 2013 with $3m buyout). He'll make the rotation, mainly because other teams are scared of him and won't want to take on his contract.

If there's reason for optimism, it's that Myers will likely throw 200+ IP (439.2IP in 2010-11), and his WHIP was still lower than his 2008-09 seasons in Philly. His ERA+ (85) was the lowest it had been since 2004, but Myers' role will likely be to eat up innings and let the younger guys develop.

Bud Norris

The great thing about Bud Norris is that he won't be a free agent until 2016, so there's absolutely no reason to do anything other than give him the ball every five days. There's a very real possibility that Norris is the ace of the staff, after his 2011 in which he had an ERA+ of 100 (but still only went 6-11), but Norris' walks were down from 4.5 per 9inn in 2010 to 3.4 in 2011. His Ks went down, but he cut his walks dramatically enough to raise his K:BB ratio from 2.05 to 2.51. FanGraphs lists his value at $8m, and for less than $500K/year, he's a steal.

The Lunatic Fringe

J.A. Happ

Happ had a miserable 2011. I was getting ready to be all, "10.2% OF HIS FLYBALLS WERE HOMERS!!!" And then I saw that Wandy, Myers, and Norris all had higher HR/FB rates than Happ, so that's out. But still, Happ had a miserable 2011. He's another one of those guys who probably wasn't ever as good as his numbers indicated - his ERA outperformed his xFIP by 0.89, 1.40, and 1.23 from 2008-10, respectively. It all just sort of caught up with him in 2011. Walks contributed to it - he walked 4.78 batters per nine innings in 2011, as did his lower groundball rate (33% - his lowest since 2008), and his BABIP regulated itself. And by "regulated itself," I mean that it was normal, for once, with a .297 BABIP in 2011 (after .266, .266, and .262 from 08-10). If he has a miserable spring it could turn out that he heads to OKC - as he did for three starts in 2011.

Jordan Lyles

You know all about Jordan Lyles, the 21-year old phenom, and the former prize of the Astros' farm system. But the thing is, he is only 21 years old. Still, he only walked 2.49 batter per nine in 2011 (striking out 6.41 per nine). While he had a horrific ERA (5.36), his FIP was 4.53, and his xFIP was an even better 4.13. Was he "unlucky"? His BABIP was .307 at the ML level, but he's been pretty unlucky his entire professional career - only having part of one season (low-A in 2008) with a BABIP under .315. Still, it's feasible to think the Astros will let Lyles go back to OKC in 2012 for more innings.

Livan Hernandez

You pretty much know what you're gonna get with Hernandez: 170-200IP of serviceable starting pitching. If he fares well in Spring, and someone else gets hurt or completely nuts it, Hernandez is probably in the rotation.

Zach Duke

This was an interesting one. A non-roster invitee like Hernandez, Duke could be a sleeper after an injury-plagued 2011. He's a lefty ground-ball pitcher who doesn't get strikeouts, or walk many batters. At the end of 2010, after Duke had been DFAed by the Pirates, FanGraphs said that xFIP is probably a better gauge of Duke's abilities. Should that be the case, Duke is a high-contact pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20-4.30 range, not the ~5.00 ERA pitcher he's been over the past two seasons (with a BABIP of .338 and .339, respectively). If it doesn't work out for Duke in the rotation, he could turn into a lefty specialist out of the pen. Or he could not play for the Astros.

Kyle Weiland

Acquired from the Red Sox with Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon, the 25-year old Weiland could be an intriguing SP4 for the Astros. Weiland's fastball sat at 92.5mph (according to FanGraphs) in 2011, which would put him right there with Norris as the hardest thrower in the rotation. He's somewhat of an unknown - with his cup of coffee in 2011 getting spilled down his chest, scalding his flesh. In his first season at Triple-A Pawtucket (24 starts) in 2011, he had a 3.58 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with a 2.29 K:BB ratio and 3.9 BB per nine innings (8.8 K/9 in 2011). Still, he won't be 26 until September and will be shooting for just his 2nd stint in the Majors.

The Outsiders

Aneury Rodriguez

The Aneurysm, as we like to call him, is on the outside looking in because we don't know what role he'll have in 2012. The former Rule 5 pick had to stay on the 25-man roster in 2011, or he'd be sent back to the Rays, so he would start for a while, then go back to the bullpen, then make a spot start. He'll be 24 all season long and it's possible that, if the rotation is in his future, he could spend some time in OKC until a rotation spot opens up. As a starter, he had a 5.80 ERA/1.44 WHIP, and a 1.86 K:BB ratio. In 35 games in relief, Rodriguez had a 4.80 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with a 2.11 K:BB ratio. And that's with an overall .271 BABIP. There's no reason to not let him go back to Triple-A (he only had 17 starts for Tampa's Triple-A team in 2010) and get some more seasoning - unless he has a killer Spring.

Lucas Harrell

Harrell, one of Wade's waiver claims from 2011, made his Astros debut on September 2 against Milwaukee - going 5.1IP, allowing 3H/0ER, 4K:2BB, and throwing 114 pitches. Then he appeared in five more games, with an unsuccessful start against the Rockies thrown in on September 25. But he did alright. Harrell has a tendency to walk batters - 4.3 batters per nine - in seven minor-league seasons, with 6.0 K/9 in the same time frame. In nine starts for Oklahoma City in 2011, we has 5-2 with a 1.72 ERA/1.26 WHIP. He has a couple of options left, but will be 27 in June.

Henry Sosa

Obtained in the Keppinger trade from the Giants, the hard(ish)-throwing Sosa (93.1mph avg fastball) got ten starts for the Astros in 2011. He had a 5.23 ERA, but his FIP was 4.77, and his xFIP was 4.50 - so he probably isn't as bad as it looked. He'll also be 27 at the end of July.

Xavier Cedeno

The Astros picked up Cedeno following the 2010 season, and assigned him to Double-A Corpus (he missed the entire 2010 season), where he went 5-6 with a 3.95 ERA/1.28 WHIP, striking out 8.9 batters per nine. So they bumped him up to Oklahoma City, where had a much worse time with his peripherals (6.23 ERA/1.54 WHIP), but still managed to strike out 27 batters in his 26IP. He saw 1.2IP of action with the Astros in 2011 (3 games), and gave up 5H/2ER (2HR) in his final appearance of the season - in the 19-3 drubbing at the hands of the Rockies. Nowhere near enough to get any sort of opinion about Cedeno. Still, he's a longshot to make the rotation, and I'd expect him back in OKC.

Luhnow, on analyzing minor-league players

2012-02-14T07:53:00.002-06:00

Over at What the Heck, Bobby, there's a little note about an exchange between Jayne and Jeff Luhnow on the analysis of minor-league players:

Jayne:
He agreed with me that the use of stats such as BABIP and FIP, etc. are not particularly useful in analyzing minor league players, especially at the lower levels since the competition can be so uneven. He explained to me that his staff will be delving much more deeply. They will literally be tracking every single pitch and every single stroke of the bat in every single situation. They aren't just looking at atoms; they are looking at quarks and neutrinos. They will be able to view a player's performance at the most fundamental level in order to facilitate that player's maximum potential and predict future performance. That's smart.

First 50 games will determine Lee's market

2012-02-13T12:06:00.003-06:00

Jeff Luhnow talked to Jon (Paul?) Morosi over the weekend for an article about Five Teams Already Planning for 2013.

Part of that is listening to calls on Carlos Lee:
“If he gets off to a good start, and clubs feel like he’s someone they need for the stretch run, I’m sure we’re going to get calls. And we’re certainly going to be answering the phone.”

UPDATE: In response to the comment, here are Carlos Lee's first 50 games for the past three seasons:
2011: .251/.284/.387, 4HR/27RBI
2010: .206/.239/.330, 5HR/21RBI
2009: .319/.370/.532, 9HR/31RBI

What about Wandy?
"We’re looking at how we can get good and stay good. If we get an offer for Wandy that gives us an opportunity to improve the ballclub, we’ll look at it. But we’re not actively trying to get rid of him. He’s an important part of our plan for next year."

The American League West can go screw itself

2012-02-13T11:13:00.003-06:00

I'm starting to seriously hate the AL West.

First it's Albert Pujols signing an eternal contract with the Angels that includes a provision where he doesn't age, regress, or die.

Then it's Yu Darvish signing a contract with the Rangers. This, of course, could not turn out the way that everyone is sort of expecting (meaning: Darvish is probably going to be pretty damn good).

Now it's highly-coveted Cuban defector (which makes him more bad-ass) Yoenis Cespedes signing a 4yr/$36m contract with Oakland.

Screw this AL West noise. If we get enough people together to donate the money to cover the discount Crane got for allowing the Astros to move to the AL, can the Astros move back to the NL Central?

Kevin Goldstein's Top 101

2012-02-13T10:24:00.002-06:00

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein lists his Top 101 prospects. Where Dem Astros At?

Jarred Cosart - #48
George Springer - #49
Jonathan Singleton - #73

Mike Foltynewicz: "Professional Target-Hitter"

2012-02-13T06:46:00.002-06:00

Here's a nice article from 2010 1st Round pick Mike Foltynewicz' hometown paper.

“Early in games I can hit 96 to 97 (mph). In later innings, it’s maybe 92 or 94. But what the gun says doesn’t matter. What they want me to do is maintain my velocity. They don’t care as much how hard I throw it, they want me to hit spots. I have become a professional target hitter. I have to be able to hit the outside corner or put the curve in the dirt if I need to. Even when I play catch now, I try to hit the other guy in the chest every time."

According to Foltynewicz (within the article), he'll probably start the season at Lexington, but will not be heading to Lancaster, skipping - when the time comes - to Corpus.

“Lancaster is a bad area for pitchers. The wind blows out 40-50 mph at night and a pitcher can get mentally unfocused out there. They tend not to send pitchers there that they drafted high.”

Random random Astro - Mike LaCoss

2012-02-12T12:16:00.000-06:00

It's time for another installment of random random Astro, where at random time throughout the season random players from random eras will be discussed. Today's player is swingman Mike "Bunny" LaCoss.

Mike pitched for the Astros from 1982 to 1984 after being claimed off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds. He made 118 appearances for Houston over those three years, including 43 starts. He compiled an 18-18 record with 4 saves and a 3.83 ERA. These days that ERA would look pretty good, but in the lower scoring early 80's it was only good for a 87 ERA+. His first season with Houston, 1982, was his best. That year he went 6-6 with a 2.90 ERA while appearing in 41 games including 8 starts.

Mike seemed to alternate stretches of effectiveness with stretches where he let everyone score, but a couple of good games stand out, both starts. On September 14, 1982 LaCoss started in Atlanta against a Braves team that was battling for the division lead. Mike gave up just two 2nd inning singles as he pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out three and walking two, to earn the victory as the Astros won 4-0.

On July 5, 1984 Mike pitched another gem against the Expos. Facing a lineup that featured Tim Raines and Gary Carter, LaCoss went eight innings allowing one unearned run and three hits while striking out six and walking three. The Astros would win 2-1, giving Mike a 4-0 record to that point in the season.

LaCoss would sign with Kansas City as a free agent in 1985. After one season with the Royals, Mike would spend six seasons in San Fransisco to finish out his playing career. He is signed on this season to be the pitching coach of the independent San Rafael Pacifics.

Astros FanFest 2012: Kool-Aid Edition

2012-02-12T11:35:00.014-06:00

As I wandered around MMP early Saturday morning, one thought kept sticking out at me "Why does the scoreboard show the AstBros losing 9-7?"

I know that we are a long ways from Opening Day (April 6th) but this can't be a good omen for the upcoming season. Is this just an unfortunate reminder of the final home game of last season? Was anyone even there to see the end of our boys last game?

After some quick checking, they did lose that last game 13-6 to the Cards. So whats the deal? Well...

The Astros finish up their Winter Caravan by pulling into Union Station and trying to obliviate all memories of 2011. There are new faces on the side of the building and new faces on the dais.

I sat down in the first talking baseball session of the morning, fans were greeted by 63 year vet, Milo Hamilton. Milo is a strange cat. He seems to be reinvigorated by the long offseason and is talking three more years. I'm actually surprised my man can still find the stadium, but more power to him. Brett and Dave will be herding cats trying to keep him on topic.

Next to Milo was George Postolos, Jim Cranes right hand man. This is when the Astros started pouring my Kool-Aid. GP came out blasting with his accomplishments, and I think that was the right move. He has a resume most of us dream of, and connections that a man his age should not be able to have. I like knowing the Houston 9 are being led by a guy at his professional peak, not a guy sailing off into the sunset. He still has more to prove and the experience to pull the trigger without peeps questioning him.

GP went on to make some fine points about why Mr. Crane chose to pursue the AstBros instead of other options. The immaculate condition of MMP was a big selling point. It may be weird and have some non-traditional playing conditions but I'll be damned if it doesn't even need touch-up paint. The TV deal that's in place with the HouRox, is only going to get better next year and Houston's economy is in pretty good shape compared to most places.

The main point GP wanted to leave fans with is he wants to invest in becoming the best organization with the best talent. And the first step was identifying a new GM. He looked under every rock, in every cave, went to palm readings and got recommendations from his barber. All roads led to the same guy, Jeff Luhnow, formerly of the Redbirds. Mr. Luhnow was the architect of the Championship team last year, drafting and scouting almost the entire roster and building a pipeline of MiLB talent that gives Baseball Americas pants a rise.
The next step in packing the Juicebox with rabid fans is to find ways to have fun at the ballpark. Everything from free family friendly initiatives to $5 beers and a wine bar, there will be affordable ways to get your Shooting Star swerve on. Side note: I brought my first bottle of water in and used it to wash down a protein bar from home. This made my day. No hot dog and soda in this temple.

When the topic of the dreaded name change came up, GP made it clear that every option in making the fan experience is on the table, and the openness of Mr. Crane to all possibilities and the press needing a good headline combined to make a throw away comment a national news story. In effect, they accomplished a huge objective by gaining attention for all the real iniatives being put in place. How you like them apples?

Next up was the club's 1st choice for leading our organiztion's player evaluation and acquisitions, Mr. Luhnow. Who will be forever pegged the GQGM by Brad Mills after Jeff took a friendly jab at Brad's lack of follicular prowess. My Kool-aid glass is nearly half full at this point. GQGM's resume was already exalted by GP so he dove right into his plans. He'll be in Dominican tomorrow to help out our Latin team and then head onto Kissimmee after that for Spring Training. Did you know he speaks Spanish? Maybe he can tell Carlos to put down the fork in a way he'll understand (At least Dierker agrees with me on that. If you witnessed his diatribe about Carlos, you will not forget it.) GQGM went on to let fans know that 9 players have already reported and doors were opened on Feb. 1st for players to fire it up if so inclined. the caravan was a huge success this year from the standpoint of getting to meet fans and take in all their ideas (Hey guy that want's to abolish the closer role, shut up). Fan interaction is a big objective for the new front office and GQGM is at the front of that wave, using twitter and good old fashioned handshaking. When Mr. Crane returns from Pebble Beach, you can expect the same from him as well. It is a new day.

Mr. Luhnow then went on to promise that the one thing the organization can control from the players is effort. We're going to see guys busting their proverbial tails night in and night out. This is how you win Houston fans hearts, and he really saw that first hand at the Texans playoff game this year. We adore our blue collar guys, and that's what he expects from his players and coaches. We're going to out work and out hustle everyone else.
With 21 rookies last year there were a lot of chances to learn about themselves according to Brad Mills. Losing took its toll on the group and he wants all the guys to remember how it felt to get bent over a barrel repeatedly, learn from history and all that.

This group of guys has a couple all-stars waiting to break out and with the addition of select free agents and the #1 overall draft pick , there will be an influx of talent and open competition at almost every spot. While having the top spot in the draft is a blessing this year GQGM does not want it to ever happen again. they'll be spending more than every other team on the draft and trying to keep up in international signings. All these pieces will give us the ability to trade for established talent when the time comes. My glass is getting full.

Coach Brad Mills was the last guy on the stage to get a turn at the mic, and he used it to talk about the competitions going into this season. There are 61 Bros headed to camp and a few extra MiLB catchers to spell the 4 ML invites. (I spied Chris Snyder signing today, that's a big dude. Looks like a masher.) Coach Mills is excited to add some proven ML players like Jack Cust, Zach Duke and Livan Hernandez but the name that came up all day from everyone was Jed Lowrie. They are expecting huge things from him and Mills also believes we have a unscratched lotto ticket with Fernando Martinez. I love the optimism this time of year.

Some final notes from the day:

-We will be teaching winning at every level. the expectation is to develop talent while winning. Will effect player choices in free agency and the draft.

-Brad Mills reads Jerry Maxwell books on leadership.

-CBA changes this offseason are positive for Astros

-GQGM is off the market ladies. He recently got hitched. Congrats

-The first Astroline guest (of February) will be Jim Crane. I'll be listening for sure.

-Altuve got 900 AB's between all the leagues last year. Had to get him to take a short break before spring.

-Coaches have been given player capsules that contain Bio's, Headshots, Video and career stats for their meetings Feb. 18-19.

-Expect CJ, Bogusevic and Wallace to get every chance to win jobs outright.

-Bud Norris has matured into a staff leader, and has my vote to be the Opening Day starter. Used this offseason to mentor young gun Jarred Cosart. That's time well spent Bud.

-Bud wants to be a lifelong Astro, loves Houston

-Bud is inspired by Roy O and how he evolved as a pitcher throughout his career, and hopes to emulate his success.

-Bud also had a great line of pitching coaches coming up and credits each one for maximizing his current skill set.

-JD Martinez feels lucky to be at ML already. Once he got his confidence it was only a matter of time before he hit his way to Houston.

-JD's mom is the President of his fan club and keeps him humble while getting him interactions with fans.

-JD's unique batting stance is a product of evolution over many years. It is not an imitation of anyone as most believe.

-Larry Dierker's fondest baseball memory was the ceremony for the all-Astrodome team before the final game in 1999. 30 minutes of baseball heaven.

-LD is excited about a uniform change and mentioned all former designs are being considered, even the navy and gold.

-John McMullen's wife hates the color orange. That was the reason we abandoned the Rainbow look. Crazy.

-Flashback Friday's guarantee throwbacks including batting helmets and hats all season. There will be 2 jersy giveaways and the rest will be available for purchase.

-The Walk of Fame will be opened this year honoring all players with their numbers retired and Milo and Gene Elston as well. Plaques will be placed outside MMP.

Play ball kids! $15 for 5 swings on the field was a great way to raise money for the Urban Youth Academy. But not having kids bats was a huge mistake. I saw a 40 pound girl try and swing a 34 inch piece of maple out of necessity.

So about that losing scoreboard. It was probably an omen after its all said and done, but I'll be happy to see us go down swinging. It feels like 1962 or 1991 in Houston right now and thats not a bad thing.

Before I walked back to truck, I slammed that glass of Kool-aid down, and it was good. Baseball season is here and I'm ready to live-blog. Who's coming with me?

Prospects to watch in 2012

2012-02-10T21:48:00.000-06:00

By now, most of the "experts" have released their top 10, 11, 15, 20, however many lists and we've linked to as many of them as we could find and thought relevant. So I'm not going to add my own top (insert random number) list to the noise. Instead, we'll look position by position and identify the experts' consensus top prospect, an intriguing under the radar player, and those facing a potential make or break season.

Catcher

Consensus: Chris Wallace - Chris has impressed both offensively and defensively so far, hitting .280/.355/.495 in two seasons while throwing out 34% of would-be base stealers, though that number dropped to just 10% in 30 AA games at the end of 2011. If his bat holds true and his defensive struggles at Corpus prove to be a sample size blip, Chris has a good shot at success.

Under the Radar: Ernesto Genoves - Genoves had a mini-breakout in 2011 at Greeneville where he hit .280/.375/.464 and had a 31% caught stealing rate. Offensively this is the first time we've seen much pop from him, but his strikeout rate is decent and he's shown some ability to get on base. He does have an issue with passed balls as a catcher, which could hamper his progress.

Make or Break: Rene Garcia - Garcia is another of the many defense-first catchers we've seen lately in the organization. His 37% career CS% looks good, but another season of swinging a wet noodle on offense (.242/.288/.303 at Lancaster in 2011) will certainly relegate him to organizational fodder.

First Base

Consensus: Jonathan Singleton - Singleton, acquired from Philadelphia in the Hunter Pence trade, is regarded by some as the Astros top prospect. In three minor league seasons he sports a line of .294/.393/.456. This guy hits for average, is starting to realize his power potential, and is willing to take a walk. Barring any setbacks don't be surprised to see him in Houston as early as 2013.

Under the Radar: Mario Gonzalez - Not much is known about Mario, as he's spent his three year career so far in the Dominican Summer League. He has enormous plate discipline, especially for a younger player. Last season he hit .273/.443/.398 with 50 walks in just 238 plate appearances. I don't know if he has much power potential, but I'm hoping he makes the move to the states in 2012 so we can get a better look at him. He also threw three scoreless innings last season.

Make or Break: Kody Hinze - Kody burst onto the scene in 2010 with a good increase in power and continued his improved hitting in 2011 as he hit .306/.420/.541 between Lancaster and Corpus, though his power dropped off in Corpus. He was eligible for the Rule 5 draft last season, and time is ticking away for Kody.

Second Base

Consensus: Delino DeShields - DDJ struggled in his first full season as the organization challenged him by placing him in Lexington, where he hit .220/.305/.322, and switching him from center field to second base. The tools are there, though, and players who are children of former major leaguers often have the makeup to fight through the struggles and come out on the other side in good shape.

Under the Radar: Brandon Wikoff - Brandon is the kind of player that gets described using the words "gritty", "hustle", and "scrappy." He's undersized with almost no power but he hits for good average, doesn't strikeout much, and plays multiple positions without embarrassing himself at any of them. Last year, mostly at Corpus, he hit .302/.391/.346 and logged innings at second base, shortstop, and third base. Think Jeff Keppinger but with better defense and none of the power.

Make or Break: Andrew Simunic - Simunic and Wikoff are very similar on paper. Andrew has the ability to at least hit a few doubles, but with a few more strikeouts. His career line is .272/.367/.346. He's played a little outfield; he's actually appeared at every position except catcher, but is best at second base. However, Simunic is already 26 and only has 37 games above high A ball.

Shortstop

Consensus: Jonathan Villar - Villar, acquired in the Oswalt deal, has enormous potential, profiling as a future 20/20 shortstop. He's very young and raw, though. Villar has hit .255/.331/.370 in his minor league career with a scary 26.1% strikeout rate and an equally scary .923 fielding percentage. But, he's been two to three years younger than his competition the last couple seasons as he's been aggressively pushed through the Houston system since the trade.

Under the Radar: Juan Santana - Juan played last season as a 16 year old in the Dominican Summer League. Like Mario Gonzalez, Juan doesn't have many reports out there for me to pull from and I'm unfortunately not able to travel to the D.R. to watch them. What we can tell is that he shows above age level plate discipline as he hit .274/.350/.363 with 28 walks and 22 strikeouts in 283 plate appearances. I suspect he'll spend another season or two in the DSL before coming stateside to play, but I'll be watching the box scores for his name in the meantime.

Make or Break: Jiovanni Mier - Before we get too far into Jio, let me say he's still very young and has time to figure it out. However, he's already been passed by Villar because his bat hasn't developed the way the Astros were hoping. He's shown good patience at the plate and may yet develop a little pop, but his career slash line is just .244/.341/.355 through three seasons. He needs to take a good step forward this season to get back on the top prospect track.

Third Base

Consensus: Mike Kvasnicka - That Mike is seen as our top 3B prospect probably says more about the Astros system than it does about Kvasnicka. He was drafted as a catcher but the Astros quickly moved him out from behind the plate and he's struggled defensively with the switch so far. He's described as having power potential, but at his age I don't see much more room to develop that power. He's hit .251/.320/.357 as a professional. Had the Astros system not been so thin at third base, I would have listed him as the make or break candidate. I've spoken with a few teammates of his, though, and almost to a man they gave me Mike's name as a player they think could move through the system quickly, so there may be more there that I'm not seeing.

Under the Radar: Jonathan Meyer - Jonathan had a mini-breakout last season at Lancaster but still needs to improve before really making a case for prospect status. He hit .264/.343/.399 with 14 home runs while improving his defense and walk rate. He'll be just 21 in 2012 and may be coming into his own.

Make or Break: David Flores - David may turn out to be another of the organizations many Lancaster flukes. After hitting .311/.371/.585 in 205 plate appearances in his third stint with the JetHawks he seemingly forgot how to hit in Corpus. In 251 trips to the plate for the Hooks, Flores hit just .203/.264/.313. He doesn't strike out much, though, so if he can make more solid contact there's hope. At 25 years old he needs to figure it out soon.

Outfield

Consensus: Ariel Ovando - Ovando became Houston's first big money international free agent when he signed for $2.6M in 2010. He has big power potential, should hit for average as he develops, and has a strong arm in right field. He played for the G-Stros as a 17 year old and hit .235/.283/.365, which wasn't bad for his age.

George Springer - George was the 2011 1st round pick but only appeared in 8 games and hit .179/.303/.393. He's athletic, hits for power, and runs well. He's a little raw for a college pick, but has potential to be a star center fielder in a few years.

Domingo Santana - A lot of the baseball community was surprised when Santana was named as the player to be named later in the Pence trade. He has a big, powerful frame, big power potential, and a strong arm in right field. In many ways, his profile is similar to Ovando, just bigger and advanced a couple years. He took a good step forward last season as he hit .287/.362/.471 between the Philadelphia and Houston A level teams. He does strikeout a lot and that will need to be watched as he moves up.

Under the Radar: Brandon Meredith - Brandon signed quickly after getting drafted in 2011 and appeared in 35 games for Tri-City, hitting .244/.371/.395. He has good patience at the plate and a good glove, and he may well be the hardest working guy in the organization.

Teoscar Hernandez - Hernandez is another of a group of young Dominican Summer League Astros players that shows an unusual patience at the plate. Teoscar hit .274/.360/.487 last year and showed good base stealing ability as well, succeeding in 16 of 20 attempts.

Adam Bailey - Adam's strong showing in 2011 seemed to come out of nowhere. He hit .291/.327/.478 with 24 home runs as he quickly moved from Lexington to Lancaster to Corpus by season's end. He doesn't walk much, but his strikeouts are manageable and he plays a fairly solid right field.

Make or Break: Grant Hogue - Grant has been a solid but unspectacular player who can steal a few bases for his three professional seasons. His career line of .279/.352/.342 indicates that he has some patience, but doesn't hit for average or power. He's also been older than his competition all three seasons. He's likely just organizational depth but a breakout season from Hogue could still shake things up.

T.J. Steele - Steele turned a lot of heads when he hit .345/.385/.562 at Lancaster in 2009. Unfortunately, he has struggled mightily through two seasons in Corpus since then and now sports a career line of just .254/.289/.392. At 25, T.J. needs to regain the spark he found with the JetHawks quickly.

Jon Gaston - Yet another Lancaster phenom, Gaston got noticed when he hit 35 home runs there in 2009. However, his numbers have plummeted since then as he's struggled against AA pitching. His career line is now just .247/.324/.438. Like Steele, Jon is 25 and likely facing his last chance to make a name for himself as a prospect.

Starting Pitcher

Consensus: Jarred Cosart - Cosart has the stuff to be a staff ace, featuring a fastball in the upper 90's with a good curve and developing changeup. In 240 minor league innings he has a 3.82 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 3.0 K/9. A September call up in 2012 is not out of the question for Jarred, but 2013 is probably more realistic, as he only has 36.1 innings above A ball so far.

Brett Oberholtzer - Brett may be the best piece of the Bourn trade. He held his own as a 21 year old at AA in 2011 and has career stats of a 3.49 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 2.1 K/9. He doesn't have the potential that Cosart has, but he's projected to be a solid 3rd starter. Brett is a likely 2012 call up.

Paul Clemens - Clemens also came over in the Bourn trade. He has the potential to be a mid rotation starter, but may end up in the bullpen if his changeup doesn't continue to develop. He holds a 4.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 but those numbers are skewed by a rough 2009 season. His last two years have been much better.

Mike Foltynewicz - Folty has the stuff to be a front line starter, but struggles with consistency. So far he has a 4.74 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He's young, the potential is there, and he has at time flashed dominance, but he still has some maturing to do.

Kyle Weiland - Weiland was acquired from Boston in the Melancon trade and is considered by some to be major league ready. He had 7 rough outings with Boston last September as the Red Sox struggled through injuries down the stretch. In roughly 450 minor league inning Kyle has a 3.51 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.

Under the Radar: Luis Ordosgoitti - Ordosgoitti is a 19 year old who was signed out of Venezuela. In 76.1 innings, Luis has a 4.13 ERA but his 7.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 indicate he could really blossom over the next couple seasons.

Nick Tropeano - Tropeano was the 5th round draft pick in 2011, so he's not exactly a sleeper. As a 20 year old at Tri-City, Nick dominated with a 2.36 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9. He already has a good changeup and if he can keep up this level of performance he won't be under the radar for long.

Carlos Quevedo - Quevedo is a control pitcher who can at times get hit a little hard. In over 400 minor league innings he has a 3.66 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and a minuscule 1.3 BB/9. If he can start missing a few more bats he could turn the corner.

Kyle Hallock - Kyle is another 2011 draftee that may quickly make a name for himself. In 61.2 innings at Tri-City, he had a 2.63 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. He's a finesse lefty with good command and secondary pitches, so it's possible he may overpower the lower level hitters but could struggle as he faces more advanced opponents.

Jake Buchanan - Buchanan is a rare pitcher in that he was able to survive Lancaster without suffering a big drop off in performance. He pitched to a 3.91 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 158.2 innings. He's been able to survive his low strikeout rate with a ground ball percentage of over 60% so far.

Make or Break: Jonnathan Aristil - Aristil came over in the Matt Lindstrom trade. In 473.2 innings he has a 4.88 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9. It's those strikeouts that have gotten him to where he is so far, but his walk and hit rates have risen along with his strikeout rate. At 25 years old and already traded once, if he can't increase his effectiveness in 2012 it may be about time to give up on him. A transition to the bullpen may still be possible, though.

Robert Donovan - After a decent debut at Tri-City, and an good showing in Lexington for the first part of 2010, Donovan has been torn apart by the meat grinder known as Lancaster. In 137.1 innings in 2011 he had a 6.29 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Assuming he gets a shot at Corpus this year, it will be interesting to see if he can repeat some of his earlier success.

Sergio Perez - Sergio has struggled through three straight mediocre seasons at AA and AAA. For his professional career he's pitched to a 4.18 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. He'll be 27 this season and is about to be passed by the higher potential prospects in the organization.

Relief Pitcher

Consensus: Jack Armstrong - Jack's stuff has potential to start, but injuries and inconsistency in college lead him to be profiled as a likely relief pitcher. If he can pull it all together he'll be a star. There's a lot of high risk; high reward going on with Jack. He didn't sign in time to pitch professionally in 2011.

Adrian Houser - Houser has a plus fastball and curveball. He started in Rookie ball after signing, but if he can't develop a third pitch he'll end up in the bullpen. In 48 innings in 2011 he posted a 4.31 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9.

Under the Radar: Alex Sogard - Sogard was used as a swingman at Lexington in 2011. He's a hard throwing lefty with a 3.96 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 145.1 professional innings.

Mitchell Lambson - Lambson may have been a bit unlucky in his first minor league season. His 4.33 ERA doesn't quite match his 9.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 and his hit and home run rates were decent as well.

Ryan Cole - Ryan doesn't have the strikeout stuff as some of the other young relief pitchers in the system, but he's been effective nonetheless. In 62 minor league innings he has a 2.61 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. His success can be attributed to a groundball rate of over 50% which helps contribute to his outstanding 0.3 HR/9.

Evan Grills - After struggling in his first season in the Gulf Coast League as a starter, Evan had more success in 2011 as a reliever. In 33 innings last season, he had a 3.00 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9. Like his stablemate Ryan Cole, Evan has a groundball rate over 50% and a low 0.2 HR/9.

Matison Smith - Matison built on his strong 2010 debut with an outstanding 2011 season. He has a 2.12 ERA through 68 innings with 8.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. His 2011 K/9 was a phenomenal 11.9.

Make or Break: Pat Urckfitz - Pat has struggled the last two seasons, and struggling minor league relievers often don't hang around very long. In a 2012 split between Lancaster, Corpus, and Oklahoma City his ERA was 5.59 with 7.4 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9. He did have a strong start to the season with Lancaster, though, and his troubles didn't really start until his promotion to Corpus. He'll be 23 to start the season so there's still a little time to get back on track.

The system is still fairly thin between the top prospects and the interesting short season players that played Rookie ball last season. Once the Astros are able to fill the entire pipeline with decent depth the franchise will be back to the circumstances that allowed them to reel off so many winning seasons in the 90's and 00's.

Oooh, yesterday was quite interesting

2012-02-10T06:12:00.002-06:00

Zachary Levine's new article from yesterday tells us many plethoras of things:

-Jed Lowrie is not going to relax simply because there isn't anybody ready to take his spot:
“Even though it might seem like I have a defined role right now with this team, it’s about beating the other guys. There’s a comfort in that, but you can’t relax.”

-J.D. Martinez has bulked up from 206lbs at the end of 2011 to 228lbs now.

-Luhnow is headed to the Dominican on Sunday to meet with scouts and reassure them of their importance:
“It’s just important that they know how important the Latin program is to us here in Houston and going there and spending a few days with them, I think, will signal that.”

Koby is just happy to sign

2012-02-10T06:10:00.001-06:00

Koby Clemens told Mark Berman that he's just happy he was able to sign with another team.

Clemens:
"With how long it took, with all the free agents that were still out there and the waiting game, it was all new to me. So I'm just relieved and excited that one of the few teams that was interested in me giving me a great opportunity and I'm looking forward to getting out there and showing the Toronto Blue Jays organization what I can do."

It's a shame that it didn't work out with Clemens. Regardless about how you feel about his dad, for about a year and a half, Clemens looked like the 2nd Coming of Babe Ruth.

Think about it this way - in terms of the percentage of his hits that were for extra-bases:
2005 GRN (133 PAs): 36.4% (.876 OPS)
2005 TRI (36 PAs): 33.3% (.799 OPS)
2006 LEX (352 PAs): 35.7% (.660 OPS)
2007 LEX (484 PAs): 34.6% (.755 OPS)
2008 SAL (458 PAs): 39.4% (.792 OPS)
2009 LAN (492 PAs): 48.7% (1.055 OPS)
2009 COR (21 PAs): 0.0% (.569 OPS)
2010 COR (535 PAs): 46.8% (.825 OPS)
2011 OKC (444 PAs): 43.3% (.756 OPS)

Clemens always hit the ball hard, he just didn't hit it often enough. But despite a career 41.9% XBH%, he only had an OPS over .800 in three of seven seasons. His OBP and SLG were there, but ultimately his lack of defensive viability (he had at least 20 games at LF, 1B, C, and 3B) and 23% strikeout rate did him in. Hopefully a new team will give him the change of scenery he may need.

Koby Clemens signs with Blue Jays

2012-02-09T13:03:00.003-06:00

Kevin Goldstein just tweeted that the Blue Jays signed Koby Clemens to a minor-league deal.

Clemens peaked in 2009 with Lancaster, hitting .341/.415/.636 for the JetHawks, and then followed that up with Corpus in 2010 with 26 HRs and a .241/.350/.476 line. He hit .234/.331/.424 in 126 games (444 PAs) with OKC in 2011.

Clemens was the Astros' 8th Round pick in 2005. That leaves Brian Bogusevic, Brandon Barnes (who may actually still be a minor-league free agent), and T.J. Steele as the only players from the '05 draft still in the system. In an interesting little side note, the Astros' 50th Round pick in 2005 was Wes Musick, whom the Astros received from the Rockies in the Matt Lindstrom deal.

UPDATE: The Commenter Is Right. Forgot they drafted Steele in 2005, and again in 2008.

The One Where Berkman Ate Twinkies On The Field

2012-02-09T11:36:00.002-06:00

The Katy Times has a recap of a recent visit by Berkman and Pettitte to 2nd Baptist Church in Katy, where Berkman talked about wanting to cry when he got traded to New York, and then had a little story to tell:

“There were two guys who were on me the whole game. They were shaking packages of Twinkies at me. I’m the type of guy who likes to engage the crowd, so I told those guys during a pitching change to throw those things on the field.

“I tore open one of those packages of Twinkies and ate one right there. Those people went absolutely ballistic. They gave me a standing ovation and they loved me the rest of the game.

Lookout Landing brings the noise

2012-02-09T09:12:00.003-06:00

Jeff Sullivan brings the noise about the Astros in a post titled, "The Worst Team Ever Projected?"

This stems from CAIRO projecting the 2012 Astros to go 60-102 - and from the list of projections compiled, that's the worst projection. Maybe ever.

But get through all the ugly, and you read this:
The Astros are in the hands of smart people, and in time, smart people usually build competitive teams. It's just ... it's probably going to be a while. Keith Law just ranked the Astros' farm system No. 27 in baseball. And CAIRO just ranked the Astros' major league product as one of the very worst that a projection system's ever seen. Steps forward have been made. There are a lot more steps.

Keith Law ranks the Astros

2012-02-09T09:07:00.003-06:00

Keith Law listed his Top 100 prospects (Insider-Only) for 2012 and we find the following of particular importance:

#46 - Jonathan Singleton
#60 - George Springer
#78 - Jarred Cosart

Notably, Anthony Gose was #59.

And here (also Insider-Only), Law ranks the Astros' farm system as a whole at #27. Ranking below the Astros are the Marlins, Indians, and White Sox.

Jonathan Mayo's Top 20 NL Central prospects

2012-02-08T19:06:00.003-06:00

Jonathan Mayo has his Top 20 prospects in the NL Central, and yes, there are some Astros on it - namely Jonathan Singleton as Mayo's #1 1B prospect, and George Sprigner the #3 OF prospect.

And in this article, Mayo has his organizational preview (with a Top 20 list here, which you can click the link for Mayo's full write-up on each one):

#1 - Jonathan Singleton
#2 - Jarred Cosart
#3 - George Springer
#4 - Jonathan Villar
#5 - Mike Foltynewicz
#6 - Paul Clemens
#7 - Brett Oberholtzer
#8 - Delino DeShields
#9 - Domingo Santana
#10 - Telvin Nash
#11 - Jordan Scott
#12 - Tanner Bushue
#13 - Austin Wates
#14 - Jake Buchanan
#15 - Nick Tropeano
#16 - Juan Abreu
#17 - Kyle Weiland
#18 - Josh Zeid
#19 - Mike Kvasnicka
#20 - Ariel Ovando

Astros avoid arbitration with Jed Lowrie

2012-02-08T19:01:00.004-06:00

The Astros have avoided arbitration with SS Jed Lowrie.

Back in January, the Astros were interested in giving Lowrie $900K, whereas Lowrie was interested in the Astros giving him $1.5m. So they settled before the hearing for $1.15m, which by using 100,000 people's fingers, is $50K less than the midpoint.

And if you click the link, you'll read Lowrie's agent say that Lowrie is in the - yes - best shape of his life.

Luhnow:
“The biggest issue with Jed has been the amount of time he’s spent on the field as opposed to in the training room and on the DL, but there’s nothing about his skill set that would suggest that he can’t play an everyday role if he’s healthy.”

Wallace to try out 3B

2012-02-08T18:49:00.003-06:00

Now this is interesting. Brett Wallace will go into Spring Training trying to earn a spot at 3B.

Since the Astros can't get rid of Carlos Lee, and Carlos Lee is like the Kool-Aid Man in Left Field (OHHHH YEAH), and the Astros are light on 3B, Brett Wallace will head back to the position he played at Arizona State, and to begin his pro career.

Wallace:
"I've been happy with how quickly I've been able to get in a rhythm over there and feel comfortable again."

Luhnow:
"Wallace needs to get back to the swing and offensive production we know he's capable of, and whether that ends up at third base or first base, the offensive production is what we need him to do."

Wallace played 3B in 2008-09, getting 164 games at the hot corner, and posting a .943 Fld% (whatever that means to you). For comparison purposes, Chris Johnson posted a .925 Fld% at 3B from 2009-11, albeit at the Major-League level. Still, in parts of six minor-league seasons at 3B, Johnson had a .938 Fld%.

So this would allow Paredes to get another year in the minors for seasoning, and if Wallace can hit, he could slide back over to 1B in 2013. Ideally, the Astros would be able to see exactly what they have in Wallace and give him a fair shot with 500-600 PAs, while allowing their best OFs to do their thing, and minimize Carlos Lee's fielding nightmare, trying to get their $19m worth.

That's a big Ideal Situation, but it's at least worth a shot.

Random random Astro - Mark Ross

2012-02-07T19:36:00.001-06:00

In this episode of RRA, we take a look at a little used relief pitcher from the early to mid 80's, Mark Ross. Mark was the Astros 7th round pick in 1979 out of Texas A&M where he was a two-time all SWC pitcher.

After a moderate amount of success in the minors, Mark made his major league debut September 12, 1982 against the Dodgers, coming in to pitch the 8th and 9th innings and giving up two hits and one run with one strikeout in a 7-3 loss to L.A. He would finish his cup of coffee with a 1.50 ERA in six innings across four games with four strikeouts and no walks.

After spending all of 1983 on the farm Mark would get a couple refills on that cup in 1984, when he pitched in just two games, and 1985, when he made 12 appearances. His Astros career spanned three seasons of short call-ups, totaling 21.1 innings in 14 games. Mark compiled a 1-2 record with one save, eight strikeouts, two walks, and a 3.38 ERA.

It's tempting to say the highlight of his brief Astros career would be either his one win or his one save, but let's look at things a little differently. On September 22, 1982, Mark came in for Frank DiPino the top of the sixth against Atlanta with the Braves leading 2-1. Facing the heart of the lineup against a Joe Torre led Braves team that would win the NL West that year, Mark pitched two scoreless innings, inducing six ground-outs while allowing just one single. With Mark holding the line the Astros were able to regroup for a comeback victory as they scored two runs after Ross left the game.

Mark's transactional history is interesting, as he's listed as having been sent to the Cardinals as part of a conditional deal in December of 1985, but was returned to the Astros in March of 1986. Essentially he spent his winter break in St. Louis. After spending the 1986 season in Tucson, Mark was granted free agency by the Astros. He would get a few more innings in the majors with the Pirates and Blue Jays before hanging up his spikes following the 1991 season.

Strangely, Mark's early ups and downs with the Astros were tied to J.R. Richard as Richard was attempting his comeback from the 1980 stroke that struck him down as he was entering his prime. Prior to the 1982 season they were optioned to the minor leagues the same day. Then, he and Richard were called up the same day that September.

Mark has recently been a part of the Astros scouting organization as West Coast Supervisor.

See the Astros play the Washington Capitals!

2012-02-07T15:09:00.003-06:00

Via Philly blog Crossing Broad, we learn that there will be a Spring Classic on March 23. What is this Spring Classic? Apparently, it's where the Astros will lace them up against the Washington Capitals who, of course, play something called "Hockey." I don't know about you, but I'm ordering 40 tickets to see this amazing event.