Austinbubble.blogspot.com

Tip of the Iceberg...

2010-11-23T06:52:00.000-08:00

Austin area foreclosures top 15,600 in 2010

By American-Statesman staff | Monday, November 22, 2010, 01:08 PM

Foreclosure postings through the Dec. 7 auction are up 10 percent in the Austin area from a year ago, as stubborn unemployment and a slow-growing economy put financial strain on many homeowners.
Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. said 15,622 properties have been posted in Travis, Williamson, Hays and Bastrop counties this year. That’s the highest number since the Addison company began tracking Austin area postings in 2001.

Austin-area home sales headed for fourth annual drop

2010-11-19T06:36:00.000-08:00

LOL Prices are not up. Are you kidding. The averages may be up but that's because more expensive homes have started cutting prices and are pulling the averages up. The reason homes aren't selling is that sellers, on the advice of their agents, are pricing above the market. Come on, 3 months to sell? You got the wrong price on it folks. It'll sell in 2 weeks if you price it right.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin-area home sales headed for fourth annual drop

But experts say market expected to improve starting next year.

By Shonda Novak AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Published: 9:39 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 18, 2010
Central Texas is on track for the fourth annual decline in existing home sales, although real estate experts are looking for gradual improvement in 2011.
The Austin Board of Realtors reported Thursday that the 1,221 existing home sales in October were down 31 percent from a year earlier, the fifth month in a row that sales have been below the year-earlier figure.

Minus 16% per ABOR in the last 2 years

2010-11-18T18:17:00.000-08:00

Homes sales decline in June; listings hit record level

2010-07-20T12:55:00.000-07:00

My guess is that the median price went up because more expensive properties sold relative to small ones. Sure would hate to be sellin right now...

-Mr. Bubble

Homes sales decline in June; listings hit record level | Austin American Statesman

By Shonda Novak | Tuesday, July 20, 2010, 11:25 AM

Homes sales fell 4 percent last month compared with June 2009’s volume, but the median sales price was up 4 percent, to $208,750, the Austin Board of Realtors reported today.
However, the number of homes on the market swelled to a record 11,749, a 16 percent increase from a year ago, while the number of sales in the closings pipeline fell by 23 percent, to 1,610.

Read the full story by clicking on the title...

Real Listing of Genius Award this Month...

2010-07-19T10:04:00.000-07:00

This home in Barton Creek was listed by a realtor for $1 mil 2 years ago. This was back when Zillow would publish Zestimates in Austin. Zillow valued it at 700k or so.

After at least 2 years on the market, it is now listed at 619k. (I still don't think it will sell at that price but it's a lot closer.) So tell me again why Zillow is no good? Tell me again why you realtors don't release sales data to us, the consumers? This seller would have been better off with an algorithm.

2305 Barton Creek Blvd, Austin, TX 78735 MLS# 5152235 - Zillow

-Mr. Bubble

ARED July 15 2010 Video Blog – Pending home sales crash

2010-07-15T11:56:00.000-07:00

Even local real estate cheerleader and KLBJ Radio guru John Mcclellan admits pending sales have crashed. Not sure why he thinks lower prices are "bad". They're great for buyers who are looking at buying MUCH more home!

-Mr. Bubble

ARED July 15 2010 Video Blog – Pending home sales crash!

Above is a link to John's blog...

Austin foreclosures up from '09, steady since May - Austin Business Journal

2010-07-15T08:59:00.000-07:00

The title should be "Austin Foreclosures Up 98%!". What spin.

-Mr. Bubble

Austin foreclosures up from '09, steady since May - Austin Business Journal

While home foreclosures have jumped dramatically from a year ago in Austin, the numbers remained steady in recent months with about 1,000 homes foreclosed on or in danger of such in June, according to a new report from RealtyTrac Inc.

June statistics

One in every 655 houses foreclosed or was in danger of foreclosing in June, a 98 percent increase from the same month in 2009. While the figure is alarming, it’s only up 6 percent from May. Most real estate experts said foreclosures would start hitting the mark in both commercial and residential real estate starting in late 2009 through most of 2010, and have stressed that overall it’s more important to rely on month-to-month figures because it more accurately reflects market stability.

Click the title for the full story...

Spanish Oaks posted for foreclosure | The Real Deal

2010-07-14T15:13:00.000-07:00

I called these jerks to see about viewing property. They sales guy said they had nothing less than a million and that I wasn't qualified to be there since I had only 800k to spend. What an idiot.

-Mr. Bubble

Spanish Oaks posted for foreclosure | The Real Deal- Austin American Statesman

In another high-profile foreclosure, Comerica Bank late Tuesday posted Spanish Oaks, a 911-acre luxury residential and golf course project in Bee Cave, for the Aug. 3 foreclosure auction.

Spanish Oaks’ owners had been talks for some time with Comerica to modify the terms of a $32 million loan to avoid foreclosure. The original loan was $34.4 million, according to the foreclosure filing. The loan negotiations involved the golf course, unsold lots and undeveloped land.

Click on the title for more

Morgage Applications Crash!

2010-05-22T17:50:00.000-07:00

Uh oh!

-Mr. Bubble

Housing Industry Gets Wake Up Call After Purchase Apps Fall To 13 Year Low

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 14, 2010.

Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics summed up the survey:

"Purchase applications plummeted 27 percent last week and have declined almost 20 percent over the past month, despite relatively low interest rates. The data continue to suggest that the tax credit pulled sales into April at the expense of the remainder of the spring buying season. In fact, this drop occurred even as rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages continued to fall, and at 4.83 percent are at their lowest level since November 2009....However, refinance borrowers did react to these lower rates, with refi applications up almost 15 percent, hitting their highest level in nine weeks."

More here...

Thanks to realtor Paul Smith for this info. Paul is an excellent buyer's agent.

Skyrocketing Foreclosures in Austin!

2010-05-17T22:38:00.000-07:00

The number of home foreclosures in the Austin area increased 45 percent in April compared to one year ago, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a group that monitors foreclosed properties in the United States.

Link to Article....

Duh! Finally the Government Sees the Bubble

2010-04-10T10:28:00.000-07:00

Hmm. I didn't know that your property values keep rising due the the ten percent maximum annual increase rule even when your property didn't actually rise in that year. That helps explain why people thought property hadn't really fallen in Austin in 2008-9. Much of the data was driven by the TCAD values due to the fact that nobody release the MLS data.

- Mr. Bubble

Travis property values face first drop since 2003

5.3 percent projected decline would mean a $6.5 billion hit to tax rolls.

By Laylan Copelin and Shonda Novak
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF

Published: 11:44 p.m. Friday, April 9, 2010
The recession that wiped out thousands of jobs in Central Texas also erased $6.5 billion from the market value of Travis County properties.
The 5.3 percent drop in values from 2009 was the first decline since 2003, according to preliminary figures from the Travis Central Appraisal District.

more...

Beware of Pocket Listings

2010-04-09T10:25:00.000-07:00

Pocket listings are quite common in Austin. I think many sellers are denied maximum market prices for these deals and we are all denied the price information the sale contains. Do yourself a favor, list in the MLS and require your agent to present you with all offers.

- Mr. Bubble

Happens Every Day

Reno attorney and real estate investor William Thornton has filed a complaint with the Nevada Real Estate Division against local real estate figures Karen Greathouse and Nancy Fennell of Dickson Realty.

Thornton accused Greathouse of conducting a “pocket listing,” which he wrote means that “the agent fails to advertise the property in order to avoid sharing the commission with another agent (by representing both the buyer and seller) or only to share the commission with agents with whom they have a special relationship.” At issue is the sale in August of a home at 2550 Lakeridge Shores East in Reno, a lakefront property that had been foreclosed, acquired by Bank of America, and sold for less than the $807,500 BOA paid for it. It was assessed at $753,515.

The $371,000 listing on the house appeared just before the close of business on Aug. 16. Reno resident George Ritter offered that amount on Aug. 17, later increased to $455,000 before the house was sold. Thornton offered $400,000 on Aug. 18 and $500,000 on Aug. 20. In a sale that took many weeks to close, the property was sold for a reported $371,250 to a firm called 7 Figures LLC and was later put back on the market at $699,000 with Greathouse as agent.

In October, Greathouse responded to Thornton’s charges by saying that her selling to him “would have been bank fraud, as well, because … Mr. Thornton’s wife is a blood relative of John Cavanaugh.” In his complaint, Thornton argues that limitation applies only to short sales, which the Lakeridge home was not.

For the full details of the story, click here: http://www.newsreview.com/reno/content?oid=1305381

March Austin List Prices from Zillow

2010-04-09T09:56:00.000-07:00

Hmm? Interesting trend in Austin list prices... recovery?

- Mr. Bubble

Median List Price

You need the latest version of the Macromedia Flash Player. Download the free Flash Player now!

More West Lake Hills Home Value

Median List Price

More Austin Home Values

Fixed-Mortgage Rates Jump - WSJ.com

2010-04-01T13:49:00.001-07:00

Fixed-Mortgage Rates Jump - WSJ.com

Posted using ShareThis

Austin Feb Home Prices Down 3% over Feb 2009

2010-03-27T12:05:00.000-07:00

Sure sounds different than what the realtors say doesn't it?

- Mr. Bubble

	Sales	Change from Last Year	Median Price	Change from Last Year	Months' Inventory
Austin	1,276	up 7%	$182,000	down 3%	6.2
Dallas	2,707	down 9%	$149,200	up 1%	6.1
Fort Bend	510	down 7%	$188,700	up 8%	4.8
Fort Worth	538	up 5%	$106,000	down 3%	6.5
Houston	3,615	down 4%	$146,600	up 6%	6.6
Longview-Marshall	116	down 12%	$120,000	up 1%	8.9
Odessa	67	up 26%	$123,100	down 5%	5.8
San Antonio	1,239	up 7%	$140,700	down 1%	7.8
Temple-Belton	94	down 10%	$110,800	down 11%	6.7
Victoria	61	up 33%	$109,200	down 23%	6.6
Texas	13,064	down 2%	$141,100	up 2%	6.9

Attention Barton Creek, Westlake, Tarrytown, Downtown Sellers

2010-03-27T11:09:00.000-07:00

The article speaks for itself but there's one thing they miss. The writers say that now is the best time to buy because rates are rising. Then they give this example of how your payment goes up as rates rise. Well, duh, don't you think prices will fall as these rates rise?

- Mr. Bubble

Castles for the Common Man - WSJ.com

Time to Storm the Castle?

At the High End, a Bit More Money Yields Lots More Home; 14 Acres and an Orchard

Daniel Horowitz is ready to bargain.
The 55-year-old trial lawyer is trying to sell a four-bedroom villa with marble imported from Italy, a winery and a fruit orchard on 14 acres in Lafayette, Calif. Mr. Horowitz already chopped the price to $3.2 million from $4 million, the amount he estimates having spent on the land and construction. "We thought it would sell right away," he says. But it hasn't, and he is willing to consider lower offers, he says.

Mansions for Sale

View Slideshow

Three years into the housing bust, steep discounts are emerging in the market for high-end homes, which had been the real-estate industry's last redoubt until now. Despite the budding economic recovery, demand for pricey properties is falling as potential buyers struggle to come up with money for big down payments and find it difficult to qualify for large mortgages. With buyers dropping out and homes languishing on the market, sellers are beginning to capitulate, cutting prices to move their properties.

Posted using ShareThis

What Spin!

2010-03-25T11:17:00.000-07:00

All of you real estate cheerleaders should take note of this. Unemployment in Austin is RISING, rates are going up, foreclosures are increasing, and federal homeowner subsidies are ending.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin job losses moderate in February | Statesman Business Blog

By American-Statesman staff | Thursday, March 25, 2010, 09:19 AM

The Austin area lost jobs at a 0.6 percent annual rate in February, compared to a 1.3 percent year-over-year drop in January.

The Texas Workforce Commission said the area’s unemployment rate was 7.2 percent, down from 7.6 percent in January but up from 6.6 percent a year earlier.

The steepest losses continue to be in the construction and manufacturing sectors, which combined lost 5,500 jobs between February 2009 and last month.
But the leisure and hospitality sector — such as hotels and restaurants — gained 5,000 jobs over the same period.

Statewide, the Workforce Commission said the unemployment rate was 8.2 percent last month, the level it has held at for four months in a row.

Posted using ShareThis

Housing market's recovery appears at risk- Statesman

2010-03-25T11:02:00.000-07:00

Glad to see the Statesman is taking note.

-Mr. Bubble

Housing market's recovery appears at risk

Posted using ShareThis

More Bad News Via One of Austin's Pros

2010-03-16T13:36:00.000-07:00

Here KLBJ real estate radio host John McClellan informs about another ominous sign for real estate sellers in 2010. (Great for buyers though!)

- Mr. Bubble

USDA in Jeopardy!

by John McClellan on March 16, 2010

It has recently been announced that the USDA loan program will be out of money by the end of April 2010. In any typical year the USDA loan program has plenty of funds to make loans through the end of the year. Over the last few years as other “0″ down loan programs have disappeared, USDA has stepped up to fill the void and provide affordable “0″ down loans for first time homebuyers across the nation. This increased demand for USDA loans has led to a shortfall the last two years in funds needed to keep this program solvent. Last year the stimulus money was used to bridge the funding gap and business went along as usual. This year however there is no stimulus money left to bridge the funding gap and it looks like that sometime in April we will be out of funds and USDA will stop issuing commitments until their normal refunding takes place (sometime in the late fall).

More here...

A Sober Realtor- Bill Morris

2010-03-10T11:27:00.000-08:00

I always like to point out to realtors that they represent both buyers and sellers. They seem to act like they only represent sellers because they are loath to discuss the market down-cycle realistically...hence this blog. Anyway, for buyers, Austin's struggling market is great news and I want you to call honest realtors have have them make offers for you!

I came across Bill's blog post on building permits today and I thought I'd share it with you. He tells it like it is.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin Metro Building Permits

Much of what I have written about the “state of the market” in and around Austin has focused on resale homes. New construction is obviously an important part of the market, and it’s a great barometer for confidence in the local economy, job growth, investment opportunities, etc.
This chart summarizes residential building permits issued from January 2000 to January 2010:

Austin Area Building Permits

Click the article title to link to Bill's blog...

Case and Point!

2010-03-05T21:15:00.000-08:00

Can we please stop pretending that high end real estate has not collapsed in Austin?

-Mr. Bubble

Spanish Oaks developers seeking new terms from lender
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Published: 9:36 p.m. Friday, March 5, 2010

Owners of Spanish Oaks, a 911-acre luxury residential and golf course development in Bee Cave, are in talks with their lenders to revise the terms of a $32 million loan and avert foreclosure.
Daniel Porter, Spanish Oaks' original developer, said that the problem arose when a recent appraisal valued the project at less than the amount required under the terms of the loan from Comerica Bank.
Porter said he couldn't disclose the appraisal amount.

More at the link above...

Posted using ShareThis

So Jobs Dictate Demand for Homes Right?

2010-03-04T20:44:00.000-08:00

OK, so everyone in real estate says, Mr. Bubble, our homes haven't declined in value because of all the job growth in Austin....

- Mr. Bubble

Job plunge in January is steepest of recession

Unemployment rate hits 7.6%; worse news may be coming

By Barry Harrell AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
The Austin metro area's unemployment rate rose in January, according to the Texas Workforce Commission, and more bad job news for the state could be on the way.
The five-county Austin-Round Rock metro area had 10,000 fewer jobs in January than it did a year earlier. That was a 1.3 percent drop — the steepest during the recession began in December 2007. A key reason was the layoff of retail workers hired for the winter holidays, as well as continuing cuts in construction and manufacturing, which have been hit hard during the downturn.
The area's unemployment rate was 7.6 percent.
That's a jump from 7 percent unemployment in December and compares with a jobless rate of 6.5 percent in January 2009.

More at the link above

Posted using ShareThis

Buyers Shift More Firmly Into Driver's Seat During January

2010-03-03T11:22:00.000-08:00

Buyers Shift More Firmly Into Driver's Seat During January

For the second month in a row, homebuyers across much of the country negotiated bigger discounts off the last listing price of homes than they had the prior month.

Buyers in the United States paid a final sale price of 2.8%, or $5,823, less than the last listing price during January, up from a median discount of 2.7% in December and 2.6% in November. December marked the first time in 11 months that buyers gained back negotiating power; for much of 2009, buyer discounts shrank as real estate markets across the country improved.

Austin Real Estate Blog: Austin Real Estate Sales Hits the Skids

2010-03-03T10:38:00.001-08:00

I agree with this author except for one thing. I don't think buyers will wait for rates to rise and the tax credit to expire to start offering less for real estate in Austin. That information will immediately be reflected in prices offered. In other words, prices have already cratered, that's why sales are scarce over 400k.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin Real Estate Blog: Austin Real Estate Sales Hits the Skids

So to get out of the way the one positive factor this month, compared to last year at this time sales are up, Inventory is down, median and average prices are up. Sounds great right. But there is a huge huge caveat to that. January 2009 was the worst sales month in 10 years. And January 2010 is the second worst month in 10 years. Personally our sales were down in January and I thought we had just had a bad month. I was oddly relieved to see that the whole market was down.

Read the rest of this blog post via the link above...

Posted using ShareThis

$228 sq ft for NEW Condo's Downtown Austin!

2010-02-28T20:04:00.000-08:00

Do you sellers currently in the MLS at $400 sq ft hear that?

-Mr. Bubble

Sabine Auction Results! | News | austintowers.net

February 28, 2010 21:22 Filed in: News

Today, more than 200 registered bidders showed up to compete for 31 units in the much anticipated Sabine auction. In the end, 29 of 31 units sold for an average 30.5% discount with a final price per square foot of $228. With strong demand, the developer added four units into the auction: three just days before the sale and the fourth unit during the auction.

More via the link above...

Posted using ShareThis