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Ma Re-election Creates Opportunity For New Vehicle Hub (Asia Pacific Automotives Insight)

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Germany's Volkswagen (VW) is reportedly reconsidering its abandoned plans to produce cars in Taiwan, following the re-election of incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou who is keen to facilitate closer cross-Strait trade ties. New negotiations surrounding the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) are expected to focus on removing tariffs on vehicle shipments, which would put Taiwan in a better position to act as a production and export hub. BMI believes the country's strong tradition in the technology sector will give it an advantage in terms of parts supplies, while the opportunity to export duty-free would provide an alternative to the increasingly regulated

Skoda And Hyundai To Drive Growth, But Face Risks From European Demand (Emerging Europe Automotives Insight)

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Autos production in the Czech Republic reached 1.22mn units during 2011, according to estimates from the Czech Automobile Industry Association (AutoSAP), marking an 11.5% increase over 2010 and led mostly by robust import demand from Germany, which is the destination for a large proportion of Czech-made vehicles. In 2012, we expect production to grow at a modest 5.4%, which we believe will come on the back of the growing popularity of small cars in the region. However, we warn that there could be downside risks to this view if vehicle demand in the EU performs worse than BMI's expectations of

BMI Highlights Risks As Hyundai Looks For Local Advantage (Middle East & Africa Automotives Insight)

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Iraq's General Company for Cars (GCC) has announced plans to form a production partnership with Hyundai Motor, which BMI believes will help the South Korean brand cement its popularity in the country. GCC hopes to have a full production line ready to roll out Hyundai vehicles within three years, but BMI stresses that there are still risks to investors in Iraq, which could heighten in

Renault Trucks Brings Some Optimism To Suppliers, But Will That Be Enough? (Americas Automotives Insight)

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Renault Trucks has signed a broad agreement with the Argentine Ministry of Industry and Economy which will not only conform with the government's attempts to rebalance the trade deficit in its autos sector but will also lay the much-needed groundwork for a stronger autos manufacturing segment. BMI has, however, long emphasised that autos production in the country is highly fragmented and such agreements will do little to improve that. Gains from these agreements may be very temporary unless Argentina is able to bag large-scale investments to reorganise and increase the size of its manufacturing base.

Increased Taxes And Economic Pressure Make For Another Tough Year For Carmakers (Asia Pacific Automotives Insight)

Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

BMI has long held the view that Vietnam's new vehicle market is characterised by fluctuating tariffs, which makes it difficult to recognise patterns in sales and project future movement. This has been further underlined by an increase in the country's car ownership registration tax and licence plate registration fee from January 1 2012, which will create difficult conditions for carmakers to bounce back from a 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in sales in

Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings (Western Europe Automotives Insight)

Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Heightened risks from the eurozone debt crisis, renewed fiscal austerity measures, looming threats of a hard landing in the Turkish growth story and the consequent deterioration in our outlook for the European autos market have contributed to a decline in the region's average score, from 52.3 points last quarter to 51.9 points, in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings for the autos industry.

Vehicle Replacement Programme Prompts Forecast Upgrade (Middle East & Africa Automotives Insight)

Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Angola's growth is set to be the sixth fastest in the world and the third fastest in Sub-Saharan Africa (following Ghana and Uganda), according to BMI forecasts.

Used Car Sales Will Remain Strong As Further COE Cuts Are Planned (Asia Pacific Automotives Insight)

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Data released by Singapore's Land Transport Authority (LTA) show that while the restricted number of Certificates of Entitlement (COE) has pushed up prices of new cars to the point of being unaffordable for many, this has resulted in record sales for the used car segment. BMI expects this trend to continue in line with our forecast for another year of contraction in the new vehicle market in 2012, although we believe there could be potential for the stock of second-hand cars to be reduced within a few years if consumers continue to hang on to vehicles longer than usual, resulting

Honda Steps Up Localisation To Take On Chinese Competition (Middle East & Africa Automotives Insight)

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Japan's Honda Motor has announced a partnership with Tanzanian firm Quality Motors to assemble and sell motorcycles in the country with a view to increasing Honda's sales in the African region. In addition to local assembly, Honda's strategy also includes products more specifically tailored to local conditions in order to compete with the large Chinese contingent dominating the market.

Mitsubishi Closure Highlights European Production Woes (Western Europe Automotives Insight)

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

High production costs, yen strength and struggling vehicle sales in Europe have all contributed to Mitsubishi Motors' decision to stop production at its only Western European plant from 2013. BMI does not expect the move to have any significant impact on automotive demand in the region, but we believe the withdrawal highlights the wider problems faced by carmakers in the region. Thanks to political and union pressures, carmakers based in Western Europe have typically been operating under-utilized and high-cost plants and are in dire need of restructuring their European operations.

Alternative Fuel Vehicles To Face Demand And Supply-Side Problems (Americas Automotives Insight)

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

The city of Bogota is looking to include electric cars in its taxi fleet in move aimed at boosting its green credentials and as a part of the government's broader aim of reducing dependence on conventional fuel in transportation. A decree to this effect was also enacted by the city of Bogota in December 2011. It called for zero duty on electric vehicle imports into the country and provision of incentives for EVs in the city. BMI, however, remains cautiously optimistic about the success of EVs on a mass scale in the country and instead sees more scope for increased

Government Plans All-Round Support For Struggling CV Production Segment (Emerging Europe Automotives Insight)

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

The Serbian commercial vehicle (CV) production segment is set to receive a boost in the form of a RSD600mn package announced by the government that is targeted at truck, bus and tractor production in the country. The package is a part of a wider RSD7bn package announced by the government in January 2012 aimed at boosting the economy.

Better Year Ahead For Motorcycle Sales But Not Without Risks (Asia Pacific Automotives Insight)

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Despite growth of 8.65% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, Indonesia's motorcycle sales did not achieve the volumes projected by either BMI or the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI). While BMI expected sales of 8.53mn units and AISI a slightly more conservative 8.4mn, the actual total was 8.04mn. Although BMI expects sales to recover in 2012, on the back of improved parts supplies from Thailand and increasing incomes, we point out that there are also risks to this outlook, which are the same risks threatening the four-wheeled

Exports Will Be Key As Rail Freight Growth Poses Risk To Truck Market (Middle East & Africa Automotives Insight)

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

The South African unit of Japanese truck maker UD Trucks has highlighted the risk of rail freight growth to heavy truck sales, which enjoyed growth of 35% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 26,149 units in 2011. This fits the view that BMI's Freight Transport team have put forward, that projects such as Toyota Motor's move to ship its vehicles by rail rather than road provide upside risk to rail freight forecasts. BMI believes the potential impact on domestic sales could prompt other truck makers to follow UD Trucks Southern Africa (UDTSA)'s lead of targeting the wider Africa

Another Trade Dispute Will Tarnish Reputation And Investor Confidence (Americas Automotives Insight)

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT

Trade secretary Tatiana Prazeres has repeated the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade's intention to possibly scrap a trade agreement between Brazil and Mexico, in what BMI sees as yet another desperate attempt by Brazil to battle with its bulging trade deficit in the autos sector. This poses a significant risk to Brazil's coveted third position in BMI's Risk/Reward ratings for the autos industry in the Americas and our long-term view about Mexico outperforming Brazil in the production segment, in terms of y-o-y growth.