avinash.godbole

Singapore Summit and China’s Strategic Assumptions in East Asia

2018-06-21T22:10:00.000+05:30

Thus it appears as if after pulling out a credible Iran deal, one which has enough checks and balances as well as involvement of other like-minded countries, The US President Donald Trump gave away a lot in Singapore in return little verifiable in return from Kim. It appears as if North Korea, a de-facto nuclear power, is the bigger winner out of the Singapore summit. Donald Trump did have his moment of unilateral glory in Singapore but if Japan and South Korea came out on top, then they would have more reasons to worry. Moreover, China’s headaches would rise were they to act on those worries.

Until the Singapore summit, Donald Trump and Kim Jong un had fairly same reasons for direct talks. For Trump it was his desire to stamp the American supremacy. He sought to show China its place, after years of engagement policy by Obama by first completely discrediting the Six Party talks which were not only China-initiated but also China-led. He used social media on one hand and back channels on the other for this purpose. China’s waning decisive powers were also showcased when the DPRK tested its ballistic missile Hwasong-15 barely after Beijing’s special envoy Song Tao landed back after a visit to Pyongyang.

On the other hand, for Kim, meeting with President Trump was a statement of status, of recognition of his country’s capacity and for him personally as having achieved something unprecedented that could not be by his father or grandfather. For a state and for a leader that is without much direct diplomatic communication with the outside world this is a big step in gaining international legitimacy.

The joint statement signed by Donald Trump and Kim Jong un leaves a lot to interpretation and that is what the success or failure of this process will depend on. For example, the phrase “complete denuclerization of the Korean peninsula” is an open ended phrase and can mean differently depending on whether one is reading it. A classic egg or chicken dilemma is not unlikely as a consequence.

For China though, no matter what the outcome of the summit, it has both positives and negatives to think about. For starters, China is likely to say that the joint statement is nothing but an affirmation of the policy of “double freeze” that it has been recommending for more than a year now. Having sorted out the relations with Kim over two “informal” meetings, China is likely to believe that it retained its stake over the process and that Kim got away with a less stringent deal than expected.

On the other hand, what happens to the US security alliance systems in the region is a bigger question from a long-term perspective. Trump’s unilateral decision to halt the joint exercises with South Korea and also to call it expensive and very provocative and his wish-list to see all of the 32,000 American troops home would have come as a surprise for Seoul. Tokyo would also be watching the developments closely because there are approximately 40,000 US troops stationed in the more than 20 bases that US has in Japan. At present, Japan and South Korea face threats not only from North Korea and have their concerns vis-à-vis China, they also have disputes over islands and maritime territories between themselves. In addition, there are unsettled issued over history and its interpretation.

In addition, the US is likely to prioritize elimination of North Korea’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) first before denucelarisation as such. While this eliminates direct threats to continental US, it does little to assure Japan of its security. Japan’s response in such scenario is likely to be a faster paced and more proactive self-defense policy, which is already more proactive than it was a decade ago. This will surely follow an activist security posturing on part of South Korea and if that were to happen, the East Asian security architecture would face an unprecedented rupture.

While China detests the fact that the US controls the East Asian security architecture and drives the process of it, it is neither willing nor capable of burdening more responsibility for the same. Rather, stability driven by overarching American presence has allowed Beijing to be assured of its immediate security environment, even if does not want to acknowledge it as such, and to pursue strategic goals in form of BRI and “support bases” in East Africa. Thus, as East Asian arms race would be Beijing’s biggest nightmare at the moment.

There is no escaping the fact that the Singapore deal has brought out more questions than answers and these questions can dictate the East Asian security scenario in the days to come.

Foxconn Model: China and India

2015-08-10T22:29:00.000+05:30

In my recently submitted PhD thesis I took a quick look at the Foxconn model of China's engagement with the world economy. Sharing that section here as Foxconn enters India with a $5bn commitment to investment in an industrial park. While investment is welcome, India must learn from mistakes that China made in the past 30 years and try and avoid them.
Of course, workers' exploitation and suicides by Foxconn workers is a known issue and not going to intervene into it here.

(of course, if one is interested in knowing how factories like Foxconn work, one must read Leslie Chang's Factory Girls)

Foxconn, Apple and iPad: China and the issue of Value-Addition

Apple’s iconic product iPad is produced in China by Foxconn Inc., which is a registered company in Taiwan. During 2010-2011, Foxconn was embroiled in a major controversy over labour abuse issues after it came to light, following a spate of worker suicides, that the workers at the iPad production facility were not only overworked but also grossly underpaid. There have also been issues of neglect of workplace safety as deadly explosions and chemicals caused injuries have been reported in the past at Foxconn’s production facilities dedicated to Apple products. Neither Apple nor Foxconn is likely to change their business strategies due to input cost pressures. The case of Foxconn and Apple is nothing more than the tip of the iceberg as far as the nature of China’s industrial and trade engagement with the world is concerned.[1] iPad, sold in retail in the US between $350 and $600 had a very little value addition in its production stages inside China. Even then, the production stages involving the Foxconn’s factories are critical for Apple’s success because it keeps the costs low. Apple’s gross margin from iPads produced in China is about 54 percent. If the margins were to be same, media research estimates, the wholly made in the USA iPad would cost the end user nearly $1140, which is more than double when it is made in China (Thompson, 2011). Therefore, the case of Foxconn highlights China’s utility in the production chain. Thomson also cautions that input costs calculation did not involve the cost of producing metal in the US.

Figure 6.1 Distribution of Value for iPad, 2010

Source: Kenneth L. Kraemer, Greg Linden and Jason Dedrick (2011), Capturing Value in Global Networks; Apple’s iPad and iPhone, PCIC Paper, 5

This factor reinforces China’s low value-added position in the global production chains. China’s attractiveness in the global production chain is because of its low-cost but high-skilled labour-force and its world-class production infrastructure facilities. However, it does not do much in terms of the Chinese value addition to the products that China exports. Figure 5.2 reinforces this idea with reference to iPad’s approximate price breakdown.

[1] For a detailed account of Foxconn production system for Apple see Charles Duhigg and David Barboza (2012), “in China, Human Costs are built into an iPad”, New York Times, 25 January 2012.

ABP Majha Show on Indian Army's action in Myanmar

2015-06-11T10:28:00.001+05:30

I participated in a newshour show on ABP Majha on Indian Army's anti terrorism action in Myanmar and its regional implications.

Modi in Mongolia: Talking Points

2015-05-25T11:13:00.002+05:30

Narendra Modi's visit to Mongolia was the first by an Indian PM. Here are my talking points on that visit from a meeting-presentation.

India was the first country to recognise Mongolia apart from the Soviet Bloc
Mongolia was the cosponsor of the UN resolution in 1972, along with Bhutan and India, that recognised Bangladesh.
India’s first Ambassador in Mongolia was Sonam Norboo, hailing from Ladak

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Mongolia is also seeking to expand its foreign relations with countries other than China and Russia under the policy of “Third Neighbour”.
During most of the 20th century, Mongolia, due to its close links to Moscow, was said to be a country in Eastern Europe, not East Asia, where it is geographically positioned.
90 percent of Mongolian exports, most of it minerals, copper, gold, uranium and coal, go to China.
China has always pressurized Mongolia for its relations with the dalai Lama, during his last visit in 2011, China lodged strong protest, During the 2002 visit china had locked the borders and stopped the railways for 2 days leaving more than 500 people stranded.
Interesting factor about Mongolia is that it has chosen to be outside the SCO and it has close contacts and regular exchange visits with North Korea.

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India Mongolia trade at $35 million.
Narendra Modi’s visit was first by an Indian Prime Minister.
It is the highpoint of the policy of “Act East”.
It also marked the 60 years of diplomatic relations between India and Mongolia and 25 years of Mongolian Democracy.
Prime Minister’s speech at the parliament referred to this fact more than once. The teachings of Lord Buddha are reflected in the principles of democracy. I quote “The path of righteousness is based on freedom of mind, liberty of thought, liberty of action and liberty of speech. These are the foundations of democracy. It is defined by recognition of inter-dependence, acceptance of diversity and belief in co- existence. Its essence is the freedom of human beings, faith in dialogue, rule of law, and resolution of differences through peaceful means. if we follow the Right Path of the master, it will also be natural to walk on the path of democratic values”.
PM also sought to project his foreign policy as an extension of domestic policy. And I quote, “So, as we transform the lives of our people, we also create opportunities for the world. And, we increase our ability to help our friends. This is the urge of the land of Buddha and Gandhi. This is the instinct born from our ancient belief in the world as one family.” It is noteworthy that the Chinese foreign policy language with neighbourhood is extremely similar in tone to this pronouncement.
He also said that “The convergence of Buddhism and democracy provides us a path to build an Asia of peace and cooperation, harmony and equality”.
Energy is one of the biggest drivers for India Mongolia relations. I quote PM Modi, “Mongolia’s rich mineral resources can fuel our partnership. And, I hope that location will not be a constraint on Mongolia’s right to choose its partners.”
PM handed over the Bhabhatron equipment that can help treat cancer to Mongolia’s public hospital. He saw this as the “first demonstration of our cooperation in the civil nuclear sector.”
India increased the Indian Technical & Economic Cooperation Programme ITEC training slots for Mongolia from 150 to 200. PM announced the project to establish an India-Mongolia Joint School.
India will help establish a cyber-security centre in Mongolia’s defence and security establishment.
Mongolia got $1 bn line of credit from India.
Just prior to PM visit India also signed MoUs for enhancing cooperation on border guarding, surveillance and policing

पंतप्रधान मोदींचा चीन दौरा, कारणे आणि निष्कर्ष

2015-05-21T07:34:00.001+05:30

पंतप्रधान नरेंद्र मोदी यांनी १४ ते १६ मे असे तीन दिवस चीनचा दौरा केला. ह्या दौऱ्यात अनेक असे महत्वपूर्ण करार झाले ज्यामुळे भारत आणि चीन मधील आर्थिक संबंध मजबूत होतील. मोदींच्या दौऱ्यात भारत आणि चीनने एकूण २४ सामंजस्य कार्रंवार स्वाक्षऱ्या केल्या ज्याचे एकूण आर्थिक मूल्य २२०० करोड़ इतकी आहे. एकूणच चीन पुढच्या काही वर्षात इतकी गुंतवणूक भारतात करेल.

गेल्या एक वर्षात मोदी सरकारने एक सकारात्मक आणि क्रियाशील विदेशनीती अवलंबिली असून चीन, मंगोलिया आणि दक्षिण कोरियाचा दौरा ह्या नव्या विदेश नितिची उदाहरणे आहेत. ह्या अधि मोदिंनी नेपाल, भूटान, जापान, ऑस्ट्रेलिया, अमेरिका, कॅनडा, श्रीलंका, मॉरिशस इत्यादि देशांना भेट दिली होती.

चीन हा भारतचा सर्वात शक्तिशाली शेजारी देश आहे आणि एक वैश्विक महासत्ता आहे. पण भारत चीन सम्बन्ध १९६२ च्या युद्धच्या सावलीतून अजूनही बाहेर आलेले नहित. तसेच सिमा रेशा वाद आणि अक्साई चीन आणि मैकमोहन लाइन विषयीचा वाद अजूनही पूर्णतः सुटलेला नही. तसेच दोन्ही देश सामरिक दृष्टया शक्तिशाली आहेत. त्यामुळे एकूणच सम्बन्ध गुंतागुंतीचे आणि बिकट आहेत.

चिनची बलाढ्य आर्थिक क्षमता अभूतपूर्व आहे आणि त्याचा जागतिक प्रभाव वाढणे स्वाभाविक आहे. पण चिनची सामरिक क्षमता आणि त्याचा भारताच्या सुरक्षेवर होणारा परिणाम चिंतेचा विषय आहे. तसेच भारताची अमेरिका, जापान ऑस्ट्रेलिया आणि इतर देशांबरोबर वाढणारी जवळीक चीनला सतवते आहे. त्यामुळे राजकीय भेटी वाढवणे आणि सामंजस्य निर्माण करने दोन्ही देशांसाठी फायद्याचे आहे.

त्याच प्रमाणे भारताची वाढणारी अर्थव्यवस्था आणि चिनचा पैसा यांचा परस्पर पूरक मेळ होणे शक्य आहे. त्याच प्रमाणे, वैश्विक विषय जैसे, पर्यावरण बदल, व्यापर नियमन, विकसनशील देशांची सामायिक गरज ह्या विषयांवर दोन्ही देशांमध्ये जवळपास एकमत आहे. त्यामुळे विवादस्पद मुद्दे बाजूला ठेऊन सकारात्मक चर्चेला दोन्ही देश तैयार आहेत.

पंतप्रधान मोदींच्या चीन दौऱ्या आधी अमेरिकेचे राष्ट्राध्यक्ष बराक ओबामा २६ जानेवारीला प्रमुख अतिथि म्हणून आले होते. त्यावेळी असे स्पष्ट झाले की अमेरिका आणि चीन मधल्या वादाचा आणि स्पर्धेचा फायदा करुन घेणे शेवटी भारताच्या हातात आहे. भारताचे भौगौलिक स्थान आणि आर्थिक विकासाची क्षमता आज जगासाठी आकर्षक आहे.

मोदींनी सप्टेम्बर २०१४ मध्ये चीनचे राष्ट्रपति क्षि जिनपिंग यांचे दिल्ली अगोदर अहमदाबाद मध्ये स्वागत करून एक नवा पायंडा पडला होत. यावेळी चीनने मोदींचे स्वागत क्षि यांच्या शीआन या शहरात करून चीन साठी नवी सुरुवात केली आहे. त्यानंतर मोदींनी बीजिंग मध्ये चिनचे पंतप्रधान ली कचिआंग यांच्या सोबत द्विपक्षीय चर्चा केली. सर्वत महत्वाचे म्हणजे मोदींनी केलेले वक्तव्य की "भारत चीन सम्बन्ध सुधरणे चीनच्या हातात आहे आणि चीनला आपल्या काही प्रार्थमिकतांचा पुनर्विचार करावा लागेल" जगभरातून नोंदले गेले होते. चीन विषयी नाराजगी असणे आणि त्याविषयी स्पष्टवक्तेपणा दाखवणे ह्या दोन वेगळ्या गोष्टि आहेत।

वैश्विकीकरणाच्या लाटेत अनेक देशांचे परस्परावलंबित्व वाढले आहे. पण भारत आणि चीनची आर्थिक देवाणघेवाण उथळ असून गेल्या कही वर्षात व्यापर संतुलन आणि गुंतवणूक वाढ यावर भर दिल जात आहे. राजकीय दुमत आणि अविश्वास कमी करण्यासाठी आर्थिक भागीदारी वाढवावी असा कल वैश्विकीकरणामुळे आला आहे. त्या दृष्टीने पंतप्रधान मोदींच्या चीन दौर्यानंतर भारत आणि चीन योग्य दिशेने पुढाकार करत आहेत असे म्हणणे म्हणणे योग्य ठरेल

लेखक अविनाश गोडबोले आणि गुंजन सिंह दिल्ली स्थित idsa मध्ये राष्ट्रिय सुरक्षा विषयक संशोधक आहेत. ह्या लेखातील मते वैयक्तिक आहेत.

Did the Chinese Model of Growth Defeat Rajapaksa?

2015-01-24T23:02:00.003+05:30

Sri Lanka's electoral results have been surprising and there are many reasons behind the outcome of the elections. In this article I took a one dimensional view of the Sri Lankan elections and see whether embracing the Chinese model of development too fast cost Mahindra Rajapaksa little too much.

Here is the link to the full article on the IDSA website.

President Obama’s Republic Day Visit: A Backgrounder

2015-01-24T15:41:00.000+05:30

Barack Obama, President of the United States of America, will be in India as the Chief Guest for Republic Day celebrations. He will be the first US President to be invited as the Republic Day chief guest and his recent predecessors have been Prime Minster Abe of Japan, King Jigme Wangchuck of Bhutan, Prime Minister Shinawatra from Thailand, President Susilo Yudhoyono of Indonesia and President Lee Myung Bak from South Korea. The series of Asian heads of state being invited in the recent past reflects India’s closer ties across Asian countries eastward of India. Now India’s invitation to President Obama reflects the high importance India accords to the US and its sense of urgency in recasting the India US relations. This can also be seen as an extension of India’s Act East policy as the Pacific Ocean makes the US an integral actor in East Asia as well.

Thus, right from the moment being announced in the social media by Prime Minister Modi, this upcoming visit has created a lot of anticipation and expectations about the future of India US relations are as high as it could get. However, beyond the photo opportunities, for this visit to be memorable the attention will have to be on deliverables and timeframes. Over the last decade, India US relations have been largely rhetorical despite the Indo-US nuclear deal. Subsequent events like the 26/11 and the participation of the US national and allegedly spy in that was a significant event, so has been the Nuclear Liability Bill that the US and others believe has delayed investments into India. US has often suggested India dilute the Bill to facilitate more American investments in the field of nuclear energy whereas India has said that it is unlikely to happen. India is also yet to ratify the Brussels Supplementary Convention that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had promised when President Obama visited last in 2010. Thus the nearly 10-year-old bilateral deal has not turned into nuclear technology or material trade between India and the US. On the other hand, India feels that while the US seeks synergy with India on the East Asian front, it does not pay adequate attention to the Indian concerns in South Asia, particularly with reference to the evolving situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In particular, the US decision to release $532 million to Pakistan within days of the 2008 Mumbai Attacks’ mastermind being released is not likely to please Delhi. In addition, the usual challenge of H1-B visa restrictions that hurt Indian companies and their business in the US will again come up for discussion as the recent indicators suggest. So the efforts to arrest the drift in the bilateral relations is not without hurdles.

Prime Minister Modi’s first official visit to the US in September 2014 had two components; first being to personally connect with his Indian American well wishers who had also generously funded his campaign for the 2014 elections, the second was to connect with the establishment including the President. His rockstar receptions and the joint editorial with President Obama as well as the comprehensive joint statements had showcased that these objectives were well achieved. Now is the time to put the mantra of “Chalein Saath Saath: Forward Together We Go”, highlighted in the joint statement of September 2014, into practice.

Towards the preparation of the important Presidential visit, the US Secretary of State John Kerry visited India as US representative for the Vibrant Gujarat Summit where he also met Prime Minister Modi. Nisha Desai Biswal, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia also visited India earlier in November 2014 to fine tune the details of President Obama’s visit. Kerry’s participation in Gandhinagar was seen as the US interest in participating in Prime Minister Modi’s make in India campaign.

Now, with two key reforms in land and labour laws in place, making them more investor friendly, the American business community is likely to turn towards India for its investments. It is no surprise then that a big American CEOs delegation will accompany India just like a substantial number of Indian CEOs joined Prime Minister Modi’s delegation to the US.

US had also readily agreed to participate in the smart city project promoted by the Indian Prime Minister by becoming the lead partner in developing Ajmer, Vishakhapatnam and Allahabad. In addition, the USAID is going to be a knowledge partner in urban sanitation, water and hygiene projects as part of India’s National Urban Development Mission and Clean India Mission. Clean energy is another area where technology cooperation agreement is likely to take place.

India wants the Make in India campaign to be emulated in the field of defense cooperation. By doing so, increases military capability will be simultaneously helpful in enhancing India’s defense technology industry, by joint research and production plans and technology transfers. India seeks the preset offset policy to help create business and employment domestically as well as to encourage greater science and technology research by stimulating demand from the industry for qualified personnel thereby attracting talent in this field. While there may be initial hurdles, this will be a big test for what is always referred to as creating “win-win” situations in bilateral economic engagement. Therefore, India will and must resist calls for diluting the offset and FDI policy in defense as this is the only way to create long term solutions for India’s defense equipment and technology import dependence.

While India and the US share broad agreement over the state of affairs of the global order as well as on the state of their bilateral relations, they have realized over the course of the last decade that they are not on the same page as far as the finer details and the methods to achieve their intended outcomes are concerned. The devil, as they say, is in the detail. Towards that end, President Obama’s India visit should help the two countries work out the finer details and help operationalize the India US strategic and economic partnership after years of promising starts.

(Avinash Godbole is Research Assistant with the IDSA and the opinions expressed here are completely personal)

Foreign and Defence Policy Agenda for Modi Government

2014-05-22T11:34:00.000+05:30

The Indian voters have given an unprecedented mandate to the BJP led NDA in the 2014 general elections. And now India will have a new government on 26 May when Narendra Modi will take oath as the next Prime Minister. I have written two articles on the agenda for the next government on foreign policy and defence policy in two marathi news papers.

I welcome your comments on these articles.

Hong Kong Elections: Limits of One Country, Two Systems Model

2014-04-02T16:17:00.002+05:30

(from Herald Sun)

Recent political and social developments in Hong Kong seem to indicate that China’s one country, two systems model is facing its most substantive challenge so far. Whether or not this issue is settled quickly and amicably would have long term implications for the mainland China-Hong Kong relations. It will also have implications for the future of China’s relations with Taiwan, in particular if the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is seen to be going back on the promises it made to the people of Hong Kong in 1997. At its core, it is a tussle between Beijing's desire for control in the name of stability and Hong Kong's wish for greater democratic space and less interference.

My article on the fate of Hong Kong elections was published on IDSA website. Here is the link.

the changing times of India

2013-09-24T16:28:00.003+05:30

the changing times of India, a photo by fotumania! on Flickr.

the changing times of India

2013-09-24T16:28:00.001+05:30

the changing times of India, a photo by fotumania! on Flickr.

दुसऱ्या संधी’साठी चीन राजी?

2013-08-29T09:46:00.000+05:30

अमाप लोकसंख्या हे ओझे नसून श्रमबळाच्या दृष्टीने ती जमेची बाजू आहे, हा विचार चीनच्या सत्तावर्तुळात रुजत आहे. तसेच भविष्यात वृद्धांचीच संख्या कमालीची मोठी असेल त्यामुळे आर्थिक महासत्ता बनूनही हा देश जराजर्जरच ठरेल, या भीतीतून ‘घरटी एकच मूल’ या धोरणाचा फेरविचार सुरू आहे.

चीनचे लोकसंख्या धोरण सध्या पुन्हा प्रसिद्धी माध्यमांमध्ये चर्चेत आले आहे. याचं कारण म्हणजे, ‘हम दो हमारा एक’ अशा कठोर भूमिकेचा चीन सध्या फेरविचार करीत असून २०१५ नंतर या धोरणात बदल होण्याची चिन्हे आहेत. निवडक आर्थिक स्तरावरील जोडप्यांना एकपेक्षा अधिक मुलाला जन्म देण्याची परवानगी नव्या धोरणानुसार लाभणार आहे. सुधारित धोरण ऑक्टोबर महिन्यात जाहीर होण्याची शक्यता आहे. गेल्या काही वर्षांत चीनच्या लोकसंख्या धोरणावरून बराच गहजब झाला होता. या धोरणातील त्रुटी उघड होत होत्या आणि सामान्य जनतेतही त्याबद्दल वाढता असंतोष होता.

my article on China's population policy and the possible changes in it was published in Marathi Daily Loksatta on 26 August 2013. Click here to read the rest of the full article.

Quick Review Raanjhanaa!

2013-06-22T02:13:00.000+05:30

Raanjhanaa had the kind of promos that would attract you to theatre based on the promise that it claims to carry; an inter-faith lover story, political setup, good music all together could potentially lead to a blockbuster. However, the movie fails to live up to this promise as it loses its steam after the interval as the movie labours hard to create new logics and turns that the characters and the storyline take. Sadly enough, all this is done while leaving the central characters underdeveloped and letting the storyline meander along.
The first half of Raanjhanaaaa is a treat with visually rich display of Banaras, its colours, traditions and people. It is richly aided by A R Rahman's music as it brings it all together. However, its other central location, JNU, is used either symbolically or sadly as a caricature.
Dhanush excels in his first Hindi role, Sonam Kapur promises, much like the movie, but her role is lost between glamour and reality. Swara Bhaskar and Mohammed Zeeshan Ayyub deliver in their acts as friends. In fact, their characters look more real than that of the leads. Anand Rai's previous film, Tanu Weds Manu, hit the right cord because of its believable characters that one could relate to emotionally. Unfortunately, Raanjhanaa does not do enough to let you empathise with its leads as in the end you feel more for Bindiya and Murari than for Kundan and Zoya.
Watch Raajnhanaa for Dhanush who could (should!) give some acting lesson to the bollywood stars; if you go to the theatre hoping for a punch of a story, you will be disappointed.

Li Keqiang's economy centric tour; does it help build peace?

2013-06-18T15:31:00.003+05:30

Optimism must translate into action

Li Keqiang, Premier of People’s Republic of China’s State Council visited India during 19-22 May 2013. This was the first step in Premier Li’s first foreign tour after assuming the office in March this year and the Chinese media and officials, among others, highlighted the fact that he chose India as his first stop. Many are willing to consider this alongside Preside Xi Jinping’s first state visit to Moscow after becoming the President to treat as a decided shift in China’s global priorities or at least as a rise of a new perspective in Chinese foreign policy. In undertaking this visit, the Chinese Premier has also overlooked the protocol as it was Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s turn to visit China after Wen Jiabao had visited India in December 2010 to commemorate the 60^th Anniversary of the diplomatic contact between the two countries.

However, this kind of attention to India does little to improve the bilateral relationship as little has happened that would translate this warmth into anything more substantial as well as lasting. Instead, this visit has further highlighted the perception gap between the strategic thinking of the two. High on symbolism and short on substance, Li Keqiang's India visit ended as such without achieving much sustainable. Except for showcasing the brownie point that Li chose India for his first official trip abroad, there is little that will have changed in the course of India China relations as a consequence of this visit.

In addition, coming in the aftermath of the Daulat Beg Oldi standoff that reminded of the Sumdorong Chu incidents of 1987 and the pre-1962 situation, this visit has done little to assure the Indian leadership of not repeating such incident or of the short and long term Chinese peaceful interest in South Asia. Now that the visit is over without anything unpleasant, it is a sigh of relief for the Chinese (and Indian) political leadership. On the other hand, the China has avoided an embarrassment for itself by settling the DBO aggression in time as India had threatened to call off the Premier’s visit and the External Affairs Minister’s visit to China before that. Had Premier Li's visit been cancelled, it would have been a major diplomatic blow as it wound have not only further increased India's regional profile as a rising player but also would have firmed the belief of China being a confrontational power.

slowing growth, (From Economist)

At another level, given the structure of Li’s itinerary on this trip, avoiding India and still continuing with the rest of the program would have been a major diplomatic faux pas. This is because Li Keqiang could not have visited Pakistan without the India stopover. Premier Li was travelling with an economic itinerary and despite nearly $10 billion drop, India China bilateral trade still stood at $66 billion whereas China Pakistan bilateral trade is at $12 billion. India has much more to offer to the new leadership's socio-economic plans in China than Pakistan ever could.

Indeed, Li's other stops in Europe, Germany and Switzerland are also about China's domestic economic concerns. Having grown comfortably at about 10 percent per year for a substantial period of time, present day Chinese economy would struggle to achieve 7 percent without the stimulus. Also linked are the issues of regional, class and ethnic inequalities and the ultimate hanging sword of stability that the leadership hopes to pacify by course correction in its economy while at the same time sustaining its momentum. Thus, China needs economic engagement with the world's leading economies more than ever.

Despite high hopes and slogans, India China trade has not blossomed as expected. India hopes to get more access to Chinese markets in areas of pharmaceuticals, IT and ITES industries and similar areas in which restrictions remain. The $10 billion drop in the recent times has come in the backdrop of dwindling political confidence. while India has looked to partner dynamic economy of coastal China, In his public speech in Delhi, Li Keqiang has offered India a partnership in its western development strategy via improvements in trans-border trade which he mentioned on three separate instances.

In Pakistan, China's newer interest is about Afghanistan after the US withdrawal and protecting Chinese interests there. China will like to transfer the mineral and other riches from Afghanistan using Pakistan and PoK routes into Xinjiang. It could also use Pakistan's influence in safeguarding its investment interests in Afghanistan while for Pakistan's energy starved economy, China could provide an helping hand via mutually beneficial electricity and infrastructure development deals.

In Germany, Li attention was on tax restrictions on Chinese telecom and solar products, double taxation issues and the Eurozone crisis. Allegations of dumping and anti-dumping probes have rocked the blooming Eu-China trade. On the other hand China is discussing FTA with Switzerland and has started the initial discussions on this subject with the Swiss agencies.

Thus, Li Keqiang charted his first global itinerary with his sight firmly set on the domestic economic challenges. That the DBO standoff happened before it cast a shadow on the visit and also raised hopes for a political dialogue which was not to be. The strategic consensus that Premier Li and Chinese media stressed did not sizzle much in Delhi. Premier Li and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's joint press conference is a telling example of where the differences lie at the moment; while Li Keqiang spoke of the strategic consensus on regional and global issues, Prime Minister Singh highlighted tranquility on the border, correcting trade deficit and water issues as precondition to improving bilateral relations. major issues. All in all, the handshake across Himalayas will have to wait until there is a convergence of perceptions on what comes first.

China's White Paper on Human Rights: Some Reflections

2013-05-28T15:29:00.000+05:30

Earlier this month, a White Paper titled “Progress in China's Human Rights in 2012” was released. This is the first major policy document focussing on the domestic situation to come out during the new leadership and soon after the biennial publication of the Defence White Paper. Like the Defence White Paper, the document on Human Rights comes out once every two years. But unlike the former, it does not generate the hype. For China, it is an exercise in projecting its inclusive growth and sensitivity towards the marginalised and no longer seen as contestation with the West since issues like trade, tariff and currency have taken centre stage.

The context and timing of this paper is significant as it surveys the wide spectrum of social issues and the challenges facing China. These issues have been central to the Xi-Li's leadership since coming to power recently. The reported number protests over issues concerning environmental, employment and land ownership have crossed 100,000 in the 2012.1 At the same time, the new leadership has also identified corruption and exploitation of powers as problem areas to be effectively tackled. Yet, the scope of this White Paper is limited and only defines human rights in China as economic and political construction, cultural services, social development, ecological progress, and foreign exchange and cooperation.

Click here to read the full text of my commentary published today. Your feedback is welcome!

lighthouse

2013-04-04T12:53:00.001+05:30

lighthouse, a photo by fotumania! on Flickr.

Beijing is Choking (and can't hide it anymore)

2013-01-15T19:54:00.000+05:30

Photo from ABC News Australia

Beijing and other major cities in China are under cover of thick pollution. I am not happy. Its one of those things that makes you think of the priorities that the humanity has accorded to growth, as much as possible, as fast as possible and no matter at what cost. Hopefully China will do some tough and sincere introspection to come up with adequate and effective solutions.
Read my commmentary on this subject on the IDSA website

India China Relations- RSTV Panel Debate

2012-12-06T12:47:00.002+05:30

Recently, I was part of the panel on Rajya Sabha TV along with Prof Srikanth Kondapalli, Amb TCA Rangachari and Pramit Pal Chaudhary.
Take a look and leave your feedback.

चीनमध्ये नेमके काय बदलले?

2012-11-19T12:01:00.001+05:30

अध्यक्ष आणि पंतप्रधान बदलले, म्हणून मार्च २०१३ पासून चीनमध्ये नवी धोरणे येणार नाहीत. पण धोरणांमध्ये जे बदल होतील, ते कशा प्रकारचे असतील, याचा हा वेध.. चीनच्या नेत्यांपुढील आव्हानांचाही पाढा वाचणारा..

My article on the power transition in China was published in Loksatta on 14 November 2012. let me know your comments and remarks

Change of Guard in China: The Context and the Actors

2012-11-13T13:15:00.002+05:30

China's transformation enters another important stage with the unveiling of the fifth generation of the leaders of the communist party. My commentary on the new leaders and the expectations from them is here on the IDSA website

ग्रंथविश्व : पर्यावरणवादाच्या ‘बायबल’ची पन्नाशी महत्त्वाची कशी?

2012-09-29T11:54:00.000+05:30

‘सायलेंट स्प्रिंग’ या रॅशेल कार्सन यांनी लिहिलेल्या पुस्तकाची पहिली आवृत्ती अमेरिकेत २७ सप्टेंबर १९६२ रोजी प्रकाशित झाली. म्हणजे आता या पुस्तकाला ५० वर्षे पूर्ण झाली आहेत. गेल्या अर्धशतकात या पुस्तकाचे अनेक भाषांमधील अनुवाद प्रसिद्ध झाले, इंग्रजीत तर अनेकानेक आवृत्त्याही निघाल्या. त्याहीपेक्षा महत्त्वाचे म्हणजे, ‘सायलेंट स्प्रिंग’मध्ये मांडलेल्या संकल्पनांवर आणि त्यामागल्या तत्त्वज्ञानावर आधारलेली अनेक पुस्तके पुढल्या काळात लिहिली गेली.

आजच्या लोकसत्तेत प्रकाशित लेख. याची मूळ इंग्लिश आवृत्ति लवकरच ब्लॉग वर टाकेन!

My article in today's Marathi paper Loksatta. It is on the 50th anniversary of Rachel Carson's seminal book Silent Spring. I will publish the English version of this article on this blog asap!

Xi Jinping’s Mysterious Disappearance amidst Uncertain Political Environment

2012-09-20T17:08:00.001+05:30

Xi Jinping is back!
however, the manner in which he disappeared and the extent to which this gave rise to a series of rumors inside and outside China should be treated as a wake up call especially because the leadership remain tight lipped about the whole episode and its causes. Here is my recent commentary on the IDSA webiste on this subject.

Revival of Chinese Nationalism; A Vital Gift to The Party

2012-08-15T08:25:00.001+05:30

More than once, nationalism has come to the rescue of the CPC in the past. This year as it heads to the power transition, many instances have been used to stoke the nationalist feelings among the common Chinese citizen.
My detailed commentary on the subject is now on the CSC-IITM website.

Alienated People and an Overcautious state in China’s Xinjiang

2012-08-09T18:10:00.002+05:30

The People’s Republic of China continues to give out contradictory signals on the question of ethno-religious identity among its minorities. While its desire for economic prosperity in Xinjiang may be achievable, it has not seemingly found any solution to the sense of alienation felt by the local Uighurs. In yet another instance that demonstrates this dichotomy clearly, the provincial authority in Xinjiang has advised some sections of the ethnic Uighur Muslim citizens of the province, including Party cadres, civic officials and students, to “eat properly, study and work” during the holy month of Ramadan. This order remains in place in Hotan and Kashgar, which had witnessed ethnic violence in the recent past. The instruction proffering this advice also goes on to clarify that it is only a directive and that the authorities are not forcing the people to eat during Ramadan. However, other reports suggest that a statement in this respect urges the “party leaders to bring "gifts" of food to local village leaders to ensure that they were eating during Ramadan”. As showcased by this instance of misplaced care of the Chinese state for its citizens, there is ample reason to argue that China’s Xinjiang policy itself is misplaced at multiple levels. In the year during which China wants domestic stability more than ever before as it prepares for a power shift at the highest level of the party and as it faces tensions in its immediate neighbourhood, such a move could possibly backfire and only add to China’s problems in the restive northwestern province.

Gist of my Commentary on the IDSA website. Continue reading here.

भारतीय स्थलसेनेचे नवे प्रमुख: आव्हाने आणि प्रश्न

2012-06-11T16:50:00.000+05:30

I had sent my earlier article to one Marathi Newspaper, they apparently liked it, told me to translate and resend. After that they tell me that it looks like translated so they could not publish it! (whatever that means!)
Thus publishing the article here for the readers of this blog!

सैन्यदलाचे काम म्हणजे गरज पडेल तेंव्हा लढणे आणि इतर वेळी शस्त्रसज्जता आणि राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षितता दाखवणे. हे काम जरी सोपे आणि साधे असले तरीही किचकट आहे. भारतीय स्थलसेनेचे २५वे प्रमुख जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ, ज्यांनी ३१ मे ला कारभार हाती घेतला, यांचासाठी हे काम अधिकच किचकट बनले आहे. जुलै २०१४ पर्यंत, जेंव्हा बिक्रम सिंघ निवृत्त होतील तोपर्यंत अनेक महत्त्वपूर्ण विषय त्यांच्या समोर असतील. हे विषय मांडण्याचे तात्पर्य असे कि गेल्या जवळपास एक वर्षात भारतीय सेना अध्यक्ष वादविवादात शामिल झाल्याने अनेकदा त्यांच्या खालची सेना युद्ध सज्ज आहे कि नाही असा संभ्रम निर्माण झाला होता. याचमुळे अशी हवा निर्माण झाली होती कि सेना आणि संरक्षण मंत्रालय खूप जास्त वेळ आणि उर्जा विवादांना उत्तर देण्यात आणि दोषारोपण करण्यात वाया घालवत आहेत. आणि काही प्रमाणात हि गोष्ट होत होती. ह्या सर्व प्रकारामुळे राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षेच्या अभिन्नतेच्या भावनेला तडा पोचला होता आणि महत्वाचे असे कि युद्धजन्य परिस्थितीत हि गोष्ट नुकसानकारक ठरू शकते कारण एखाद्या देशाची सुरक्षा खंभीर असण्याची भावना सैन्याचे मनोधैर्य उंच ठेवते, शत्रूवर वचक ठेवते आणि सामान्य जनतेच्या मनात विश्वास उत्पन्न करते. ह्या सगळ्याचा परिणाम म्हणजे प्रथमच देशची सेना एका बाजूला आणि सर्वोच्च प्रशासन आणि राजकीय नेतृत्व दुसर्या बाजूला असे चित्र निर्माण झाले होते.

हे सगळे कसे सुरु झाले?

एकूणच आपल्या देशात भ्रष्टाचार आणि घोटाळे यांची कमी नाही आणि आत्ताच भ्रष्टाचार विरोधात एक संवेदनशील आणि क्रियाशील आंदोलन देशात सुरु आहे. ह्या सर्व वातावरणात सुरक्षासेना ह्या सर्व विषयांच्या वर आहेत असा भाव अनेकांच्या मनात होता (एकदाही सैन्यदलाचे कारभार लोकापालच्या अखत्यारीत आणावे असा आवाज उठला नव्हता). पण जेंव्हा सुखना जमीन घोटाळा, पुणे जमीन घोटाळा, आदर्श प्रकरण असे प्रकार बाहेर आले तेंव्हा ह्या संस्थेतही अयोग्य कारभार चालतात असे निदर्शनास आले. याचा कहर तेंव्हा झला ज्यावेळी तत्कालीन सैन्य प्रमुख जनरल वी के सिंघ यांनी आपल्याला लाच देण्याच प्रयत्न केला असा आरोप केला.

अनेकांचे असे म्हणणे आहे कि किमान सैय्ण्यात भ्रष्टाचार नको आणि त्यात काही गैर नाही. पण अलीकडच्या काळात भारतीय सैन्याचे जोरात आधुनिकीकरण चालू आहे आणि अनेक शास्त्र विक्रेते व्यवसाय वाढण्यासाठी भारतावर अवलंबून आहेत. खासकरून, युरोप मध्ये आर्थिक मंदी असल्यामुळे त्यांचा व्यवसाय भारतासारख्या मोठ्या देशांच्या लष्करान्मुलेच पुढे चालू शकतो. त्यामुळे शास्त्र विक्रीसाठी राजकीय प्रभाव तसेच पैशाचा वापर केला जातो. खरेदीआधी सैन्यदल शास्त्रांची गुणात्मक निकषांवर चाचपणी करत असल्यामुळे शस्त्रविक्रेते सैन्य अधिकार्यांना लाच देऊ करू शकतात. जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ यांना ह्या बाबतीत अधिक लक्ष घालून निष्पक्षता आणि पारदर्शिता आधी बळकट कशी होईल या कडे लक्ष दिले पाहिजे.

जन्मतारीख आणि न्यायालय

दुसर्या पातळीवर जनरल (निवृत्त) वी के सिंघ यांच्या जन्म तारखेवरून झालेला संभ्रम सैन्य आणि नागरी नेतृत्वातल्या सामंजस्याला धक्का पोहचवू शकला असता. सुदैवाने तो विवाद वेळीच मिटला कारण जर हा विवाद ताणाला गेला असता तर भाविश्य्तील अशा प्रकारांसाठी एक वेगळा पायंडा निर्माण झाला असता. जर राजकीय आणि सैन्य नेतृत्वातला वाद न्यायालयाने सोडवला असता तर त्यात एक नवी परंपरा निर्माण होऊन जे वाद बंद दरवाज्यांच्या मागे सोडवले जाऊ शकतात ते चव्हाट्यावर यायला फार वेळ लागला नसता. लोकशाही पद्धतीत परंपरेला महत्व आहे. सैन्यासंबंधी विवादात जर न्यापालीकेने कायद्यांचे विवरण केले असते तर हा चुकीचा पायदंड पडला असता. खासकरून सर्वोच्च न्यायालयाचा हस्तक्षेप न झाल्यामुळे सैन्य आणि प्रशासकीय/राजकीय नेतृत्वातला वाद शांततेने संपला आणि आधीच खालच्या पातळीवर पोहोचलेले संबंध आणखी चिघळले नाहीत. ह्या पुढे देखील असा प्रयत्न प्रत्येक पातळीवर झाला पाहिजे कि विवाद लिखित नियमांनुसार आणि न्यायालयीन पातळीच्या आधी संपतील. जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ यांनी ह्यासाठी संरक्षण मंत्रालयातील प्रशासकीय अधिकाऱ्यांसोबत चर्चा करून नवे मापदंड विकसित करता येतील का असा प्रयत्न केला पाहिजे. जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ यांनी भारतीय सेना ही एक सक्षम आणि भ्रष्टाचार मुक्त फौज असा विश्वास पुनःप्रस्थापित होण्यासाठी काही कठोर निर्णय घ्यावे लागतील आणि त्यासाठी त्यांना भ्रस्ताच्राच्या कुठल्याही घटनेला कडक आणि तत्पर उत्तर द्यावे लागेल.

आणखी एक मुद्दा ज्याने सैन्य आणि राजकीय नेत्तृत्वात तणाव निर्माण केला तो म्हणजे जनरल (निवृत्त) वी के सिंघ यांचे पंत प्रधान मनमोहन सिंघ यांना लिहिलेले पत्र. सर्वात महत्त्वाचे म्हणजे हे पत्र फुटायची गरज नव्हती आणि न्यानंतर प्रसार माध्यमांना ते प्रकाशित करण्याचीही. देशाचेह उच्चतम सेना अधिकारी या जवाबदारीने जनरल सिंघ यांचे आपल्या कार्कीदिच्या अखेरीस देशाच्या सर्वोच्च नागरी नेतृत्वाला लिहिलेले पत्र यात काही गैर नाही. पण ते पत्र फुटून त्यावर आरोप प्रत्यारोप होणे दुर्दैवी आहे. आणि ह्या सगळ्याचा कहर म्हणजे एका इंग्रजी वृत्तपत्राने छापलेली तथाकथित सैन्य विद्रोहाची बातमी. ह्या बातमीने परस्पर विश्वास कसा तुटू सतो याचा प्रत्यय आणून दिला होता.

भारतीय सेना आणि भविष्यातले प्रश्न

ह्या सगळ्या अंतर्गत कलहात भारताचे बाह्य प्रश्न सोपे नाहीत. पुढल्या दोन वर्षात अमेरिका आणि नाटो सेना अफगाणिस्तान मधून बाहेर पडतील. त्यानंतर अफगाणिस्तान आणि पाकिस्तान प्रांतांत अस्थिरता निर्माण होऊ शकेल. तालिबान सेना जर अफगाणिस्तान च्या सत्तेत शामिल झाली नाही तर अफगाणिस्तान अस्थिर होऊ शकतो. तसेच तालिबानी मुजाहिदीन पुन्हा काश्मीर मध्ये येऊ शकतात. चीनचे सैन्य वेगाने आधुनिक आणि शक्तिशाली होत आहे आणि शेजारी देश नेपाल, बांगलादेश आणि म्यानमार पूर्णपणे स्थिर नाहीत. आता तरी माओवादी लढ्यात सैन्याचा प्रत्यक्ष सहभाग नाही पण पुढे त्याची गरज भासू शकते तसेच २६/११ नंतर आंतरिक सुरक्षिततेसाठी सैन्याला वेगळ्या कुत्नीतीची गरज आहे आणि त्यासाठी वेगाने प्रयत्न व्हयाची गरज आहे.

ह्या सगळ्या गोष्टींमुळेच जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ यांचे पदग्रहण सोपे नाही. त्यांच्या प्रत्येक वक्तव्यांवर प्रसार माध्यमांची चोख नजर राहील आणि त्यांचा प्रत्येक निर्णय सर्व पातळीवर चर्चेत असेल. पण सगळ्यात पहिले त्यांना सेना मुख्यालय आणि रायसीना हिल चा नॉर्थ ब्लौक मध्ये शांतता आणि सामंजस्य प्रस्थापित करावे लागेल. संरक्षण मंत्री श्री अंतोनी यांनी म्हणल्याप्रमाणे गेले आठ महिने अपवाद ठरावेत असे प्रयत्न सर्व पातळीवर होऊ शकतात.

सेना प्रमुख होण्याआधी जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ सैन्याचा पूर्व दलाचे (eastern command) चे मुख्य होते. ते १९७२ पासून सेनेत अधिकारी आहेत. ह्या पूर्वी त्यांनी सेना मुख्यालय आणि इतरत्र अनेक महत्वाची पदे सांभाळली आहेत ज्यात सेना नियोजन आणि कारवाई चा समावेश होता. त्याच प्रमाणे त्यांनी संयुक्त राष्ट्रांच्या संरक्षण प्रकल्पात काँगो सारख्या काठी देशात काम केले आहे. जनरल (निवृत्त) वी के सिंघ यांनी आपल्यासामोरे दिसणारे प्रश्न मोठ्याने आणि स्पष्ट पणे समोर मांडले कदाचित त्याची त्याक्षणी गरज होती, पण आता भारतीय सेना दलाला एका शांत पण नैपुण्य्कुशाल नेतृत्वाची गरज आहे. कदाचित जनरल बिक्रम सिंघ हे जाणून सैन्य आणि राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षा पुढच्या पातळीवर नेतील.

(ह्या लेखातील मते पूर्णतः वैयक्तिक आहेत)