tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-349982292012-05-14T19:53:29.059+08:00Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.comBlogger121125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-8964688377642842012-03-02T20:49:00.000+08:002012-03-03T09:31:35.903+08:002012-03-03T09:31:35.903+08:00<div><p>因為冠軍聯盟老是沒有適合的選秀時段，今年就排了一個Autopick選秀(<a href="http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/103604/draftresults" target="_blank">選秀結果</a>)。<br /> </p><p>雖然是冠軍聯盟，不過選秀結果還挺歡樂的，第三順位Jacoby Ellsbury，第四順位Jose Reyes(這隊的第二輪是David Wright)，然後七八九順位是Pujols, Tulowitzki和Bautista，第二輪還有第23順位的Justin Upton。我在第十二順位撿不到這些便宜，不過也選到了在前七順位就該消失的Votto。</p><p>其實第一眼看到二三游是Jose Altuve + Mark Reynolds + Alexis Ramirez時覺得有點糟糕，跟ADP一對照之後倒是覺得還好，全隊選得比ADP早比較多的有差不多早一輪的Josh Johnson和Freddie Freeman，第15輪的捕手口袋人選Ramos，第18輪的二壘最終防線Altuve，還有兩名SP Lilly及Vazquez。SP的問題稍後再提，Reynolds比他的ADP還晚了一輪多，古巴飛彈更是第16輪撿到的大便宜。</p></div><div class="fullpost"><div><p>Yahoo的Autopick演算法會先填滿所有先發守位再開始選Bench，這點前幾年就知道了，這也就是為什麼Altuve明明被我擺在名單的208名，結果卻比142名的Hunter還早選走的原因─為了填滿我最後一個先發空缺。所以C和2B選得比ADP早也就認了。</p><p>但這次還發現另一個現象，Yahoo在Autopick似乎會自己分配SP/RP的數量，問題出在第14輪，此時我的投手群已有SP和RP各三人，換言之名單上的2名SP和2名RP都已被填滿，4個P的位置還剩下2個空位，但此時Yahoo跳過了我名單上的Betancourt(109), Jansen(113), Farnsworth(123), Francisco(124), League(129)等RP，而是選了排在第130的SP Ted Lilly來填第三個P，其中有幾個甚至還等到我下兩輪選了Ramos及Ramirez後才被別隊選走，這已經不是用名單空缺能解釋的，因為RP和SP一樣能填上P3的位置。</p><p>第17輪同樣的情形再度發生，Yahoo跳過了排在前頭的Johnson和Thornton，選了Vazquez填上最後一個P。</p><p>只能猜測是Yahoo為了避免球隊補不滿局數，硬是限制了先發名單上要有5個SP吧，可惜的是這樣就沒辦法選出我喜歡的6RP陣型了。</p><p>而這次學到的經驗是，排Autopick Pre-Ranking時，中後段的SP可以再往後放一點，讓Yahoo湊5 SP時再去後面抓，這樣14輪一帶可以抓到比較好的中後段野手(SP比較好補)。</p></div><div><p>話說有一隊選了一堆empty是怎麼辦到的........</p></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-896468837764284?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/3_HMumSk8csleNoYw1l1WNcHcvc/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/3_HMumSk8csleNoYw1l1WNcHcvc/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/3_HMumSk8csleNoYw1l1WNcHcvc/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/3_HMumSk8csleNoYw1l1WNcHcvc/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/4KfvsgpQvYM" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com1http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2012/03/autopick-winner-league.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-28591527236772353972012-02-17T19:43:00.004+08:002012-03-03T09:31:24.825+08:002012-03-03T09:31:24.825+08:00<div><p>Yahoo!的Fantasy Baseball球季又開始了, 去年底事情比較多沒有太多時間關注FB, 加上因為今年NBA罷工所以沒玩FB, 感覺真的比較生疏了, 是該稍微熱身一下免得發生慘劇.</p><p>目前玩了幾場Mock Draft的初步心得:</p><ul><li>SS一如以往地淺, 但是3B也很淺.</li> <li>2B人選倒是比較充足. C也是.</li> <li>四五順位應該很好選, 第一輪大概就能拿到Tulowitzki或Bautista之一, 一下就把兩個最淺的位置解決一半. 第二輪回來搞不好就把兩個問題都解決了.</li> <li>8~10順位應該多練習一下, 第一輪幾乎不可能拿到3B/SS, 第二輪選Reyes或Hanley好像也早了點, 看ADP的話Longoria是差不多, 但是他是個典型的含天花板稅球員......</li> <li>第11輪的SP和第19輪的, 感覺差距不很大.</li> <li>1B/OF和SP的狀況差不多.</li> <li>8~16輪, 有洞補洞, 沒洞撿bargain, 沒什麼好選的就選RP吧.</li> </ul></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-2859152723677235397?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Gt_ifJBPnwRx-YviYE0CreYzEqc/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Gt_ifJBPnwRx-YviYE0CreYzEqc/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Gt_ifJBPnwRx-YviYE0CreYzEqc/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Gt_ifJBPnwRx-YviYE0CreYzEqc/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/JapzqRB7u84" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com2http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2012/02/2012-fantasy-baseball-season-starts.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-7095225430262984272011-06-28T20:41:00.004+08:002011-06-28T21:25:42.184+08:002011-06-28T21:25:42.184+08:00<div> <p>在PTT上看到這個討論，於是就看了幾個可能人選的年齡和所差場數，拿過去的歷史紀錄來比較看看。</p> <p>由於投手的使用方式會造成勝場累積的難度不同，我以1980年做為分界，只看這之後的投手(1979年是最後一次有人單季先發超過40場:Phil Niekro 44場)。</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <p><strong>CC Sabathia 30歲, 167勝</strong> (Carlos Zambrano 30歲, 122勝) </p> <p>1980年後 在30歲之後拿下133勝以上的投手 13位(178勝以上 5位):</p> <p><pre> Player 30歲後勝場 133勝時年齡 Randy Johnson 222 38 Jamie Moyer 221+ 40 Roger Clemens 191 40 Greg Maddux 190 38 David Wells 181 40 Charlie Hough 170 41 *32歲起 Tom Glavine 166 39 Nolan Ryan 157 42 *33歲起 Kenny Rogers 149 41 Curt Schilling 147 39 Tim Wakefield 141+ 42 Dennis Martinez137 42 Mike Mussina 134 39 </pre></p> </div> <div> <p><strong>Jon Garland 31歲, 132勝</strong></p> <p>1980年後 在31歲之後拿下168勝以上的投手 6位:</p> <p><pre> Player 31歲後勝場 168勝時年齡 Jamie Moyer 216+ 44 Randy Johnson 204 42 Roger Clemens 182 42 David Wells 176 44 Greg Maddux 171 42 Charlie Hough 170 46 <em>*Nolan Ryan 31歲後(1979~1993) 173勝</em> </pre></p> </div> <div> <p><strong>Mark Buehrle 32歲, 154勝</strong></p> <p>1980年後 在32歲之後拿下146勝以上的投手 7位:</p> <p><pre> Player 32歲後勝場 146勝時年齡 Jamie Moyer 208+ 42 Randy Johnson 199 41 Roger Clemens 172 41 Charlie Hough 167 44 David Wells 160 42 Nolan Ryan 157 44 Greg Maddux 153 42 </pre></p> </div> <div> <p><strong>Roy Oswalt 33歲, 154勝</strong> (Barry Zito 33歲, 142勝)</p> <p>1980年後 在33歲之後拿下146勝以上的投手 6位(158勝以上 4位):</p> <p><pre> Player 33歲後勝場 146勝時年齡 Jamie Moyer 195+ 44 Randy Johnson 179 45 Charlie Hough 163 46 Roger Clemens 162 44 David Wells 149 44 Nolan Ryan 146 46 </pre></p> </div> <div> <p><strong>Roy Halladay 34歲, 178勝</strong></p> <p>1980年後 在34歲之後拿下122勝以上的投手 6位:</p> <p><pre> Player 34歲後勝場 122勝時年齡 Jamie Moyer 178+ 43 Randy Johnson 160 42 Charlie Hough 147 43 Roger Clemens 141 42 Nolan Ryan 135 44 David Wells 133 43 </pre></p> </div> <div> <p><strong>Tim Hudson 35歲, 171勝</strong></p> <p>1980年後 在35歲之後拿下129勝以上的投手 3位:</p> <p><pre> Player 35歲後勝場 122勝時年齡 Jamie Moyer 163+ 44 Randy Johnson 143 43 Charlie Hough 132 46 </pre></p> </div> <div> <h4>還差有點遠的年輕投手:</h4> </div> <div> <p><strong>Justin Verlander 28歲, 93勝</strong></p> <p>1980年後 在28歲之後拿下207勝以上的投手 4位:</p> <p><pre> Player 28歲後勝場 207勝時年齡 Randy Johnson 254 41 Jamie Moyer 233+ 45 Greg Maddux 224 41 Roger Clemens 220 42 <em>*Nolan Ryan 28歲後(1976~1993) 219勝</em> </pre></p> </div> <div> <p><strong>Felix Hernandez 25歲, 79勝</strong></p> <p>1980年後 在25歲之後拿下221勝以上的投手 6位:</p> <p><pre> Player 25歲後勝場 221勝時年齡 Randy Johnson 293 40 Greg Maddux 280 38 Roger Clemens 276 40 Tom Glavine 252 39 Jamie Moyer 239+ 46 David Wells 232 43 <em>*Nolan Ryan 25歲後(1973~1993) 276勝</em> </pre></p> </div> <div> <h4>結論</h4> <p>其實寫一寫發現把那七個人拉出來整理一下好像還比較清楚 XD</p> <p>純以勝場數和年齡來看，不意外地還是CC最有希望，Buehrle和Halladay有點機會，Oswalt差了Buehrle剛好一年就顯得相當拼，Verlander和Felix都還要保持幾年成績再來看。</p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-709522543026298427?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/6PlmYLbLKj9DI58RpgeHENhqYPY/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/6PlmYLbLKj9DI58RpgeHENhqYPY/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/6PlmYLbLKj9DI58RpgeHENhqYPY/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/6PlmYLbLKj9DI58RpgeHENhqYPY/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/pDZOkGJCVQ4" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com1http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2011/06/who-is-next-300-wins.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-31683714202665229982011-02-22T20:27:00.001+08:002011-02-22T20:41:35.331+08:002011-02-22T20:41:35.331+08:00<div> <p>之前統計過<a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2009/02/yahoo-public-league-averages.html">2008年Yahoo公開聯盟各名次平均成績</a>，去年Yahoo公開聯盟的預設設定增加了一名UT和一名P，局數上限也從1250增加為1400局，各累積項目的原始數據理所當然會提高，於是再去抓了去年的464個公開聯盟進行統計，原始數據平均如下：</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <p>表1: 各名次的原始數據平均</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="2" style="text-align:right"> <tbody> <tr><td>Rk</td><td>R</td><td>HR</td><td>RBI</td><td>SB</td><td>AVG</td><td>W</td><td>SV</td><td>K</td><td>ERA</td><td>WHIP</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>869</td><td>218</td><td>842</td><td>131</td><td>0.279</td><td>92</td><td>120</td><td>1240</td><td>3.37</td><td>1.22</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>848</td><td>210</td><td>821</td><td>123</td><td>0.277</td><td>91</td><td>109</td><td>1211</td><td>3.47</td><td>1.24</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>831</td><td>204</td><td>801</td><td>123</td><td>0.275</td><td>89</td><td>100</td><td>1181</td><td>3.51</td><td>1.24</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>816</td><td>201</td><td>790</td><td>118</td><td>0.275</td><td>87</td><td>90</td><td>1149</td><td>3.55</td><td>1.25</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>806</td><td>196</td><td>776</td><td>118</td><td>0.274</td><td>86</td><td>84</td><td>1134</td><td>3.64</td><td>1.26</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>790</td><td>190</td><td>759</td><td>116</td><td>0.273</td><td>83</td><td>80</td><td>1098</td><td>3.66</td><td>1.26</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>776</td><td>186</td><td>743</td><td>112</td><td>0.273</td><td>81</td><td>73</td><td>1078</td><td>3.67</td><td>1.26</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>761</td><td>184</td><td>731</td><td>110</td><td>0.271</td><td>79</td><td>71</td><td>1056</td><td>3.72</td><td>1.27</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>748</td><td>181</td><td>721</td><td>107</td><td>0.271</td><td>77</td><td>64</td><td>1022</td><td>3.79</td><td>1.28</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>730</td><td>174</td><td>699</td><td>107</td><td>0.271</td><td>75</td><td>58</td><td>1001</td><td>3.85</td><td>1.29</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>710</td><td>168</td><td>681</td><td>101</td><td>0.271</td><td>72</td><td>55</td><td>964</td><td>3.89</td><td>1.29</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>680</td><td>160</td><td>651</td><td>97</td><td>0.269</td><td>68</td><td>45</td><td>908</td><td>4.01</td><td>1.31</td></tr> </tbody> </table> <p>表2: 各單項名次的原始數據平均</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="2" style="text-align:right"> <tbody> <tr><td>Rk</td><td>R</td><td>HR</td><td>RBI</td><td>SB</td><td>AVG</td><td>W</td><td>SV</td><td>K</td><td>ERA</td><td>WHIP</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>893</td><td>237</td><td>876</td><td>169</td><td>0.287</td><td>100</td><td>150</td><td>1295</td><td>3.14</td><td>1.18</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>863</td><td>223</td><td>842</td><td>151</td><td>0.283</td><td>95</td><td>131</td><td>1242</td><td>3.30</td><td>1.20</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>842</td><td>213</td><td>817</td><td>140</td><td>0.280</td><td>92</td><td>117</td><td>1208</td><td>3.40</td><td>1.22</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>824</td><td>206</td><td>798</td><td>131</td><td>0.278</td><td>89</td><td>105</td><td>1176</td><td>3.49</td><td>1.24</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>809</td><td>199</td><td>783</td><td>124</td><td>0.276</td><td>87</td><td>94</td><td>1147</td><td>3.57</td><td>1.25</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>793</td><td>193</td><td>766</td><td>116</td><td>0.274</td><td>84</td><td>83</td><td>1117</td><td>3.64</td><td>1.26</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>778</td><td>187</td><td>748</td><td>109</td><td>0.272</td><td>82</td><td>73</td><td>1088</td><td>3.70</td><td>1.27</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>762</td><td>180</td><td>730</td><td>102</td><td>0.271</td><td>79</td><td>63</td><td>1055</td><td>3.77</td><td>1.28</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>744</td><td>173</td><td>709</td><td>95</td><td>0.269</td><td>76</td><td>53</td><td>1019</td><td>3.86</td><td>1.29</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>721</td><td>165</td><td>685</td><td>87</td><td>0.266</td><td>72</td><td>41</td><td>975</td><td>3.95</td><td>1.31</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>693</td><td>155</td><td>655</td><td>76</td><td>0.263</td><td>67</td><td>27</td><td>917</td><td>4.06</td><td>1.32</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>641</td><td>139</td><td>604</td><td>61</td><td>0.259</td><td>58</td><td>12</td><td>804</td><td>4.24</td><td>1.35</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p>數據上跟預期的差不多，打擊的累積成績大概上升了4%，平均項目的AVG下滑，但主因應該不是被第二個UT拉低，而是去年相較08年偏向投手，因為同樣是平均項目的ERA和WHIP非但沒有因為多出來的一個投手而拉高，反而還降低了；W和SV則是上升了15%左右(又一個投手年的證明，局數只多了12%，相對打者從9個變成10個卻只升了4%)，但是SV整體來說沒有增加，只是前後段拉得更開了。</p> </div> <div> <p>今年另外統計了各名次的總分數據，可以看到一些有趣的現象。</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="2" style="text-align:right"> <tbody> <tr><td>Rk</td><td>平均</td><td>標準差</td><td>最低</td><td>最高</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>97.90</td><td>6.74</td><td>79.0</td><td>113.0</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>89.45</td><td>5.55</td><td>73.0</td><td>105.0</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>82.69</td><td>4.85</td><td>71.5</td><td>96.0</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>77.14</td><td>4.61</td><td>65.5</td><td>92.0</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>71.92</td><td>4.33</td><td>60.0</td><td>84.5</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>66.86</td><td>4.32</td><td>53.5</td><td>79.5</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>61.85</td><td>4.42</td><td>46.0</td><td>75.5</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>57.52</td><td>4.41</td><td>45.0</td><td>69.5</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>52.69</td><td>4.40</td><td>40.5</td><td>65.5</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>47.19</td><td>4.94</td><td>31.5</td><td>60.5</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>41.54</td><td>5.31</td><td>22.0</td><td>58.5</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>33.26</td><td>6.81</td><td>11.0</td><td>49.5</td></tr> </tbody> </table> <p>各聯盟的第一名平均總分是98分，不過這不代表要拿98分才能拿冠軍，因為第二名的平均只有89.5分，所以90分以上就頗有希望；如果能拿下100分，已經超出平均兩個標準差，還拿不下冠軍大概也只能說<a href="http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/archive/mlb/2010/154449/standings" target="_blank">運氣太糟</a>吧。相對地，也是有人可以<a href="http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/archive/mlb/2010/153827/standings">靠79分拿下冠軍</a>。不過105分亞軍也未必是最慘的，因為有人拿了92分還只能和人<a href="http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/archive/mlb/2010/150219/standings">共享第三名</a>呢。</p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-3168371420266522998?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DD45Sk6DEYLriNcesTwshQa2V5E/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DD45Sk6DEYLriNcesTwshQa2V5E/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DD45Sk6DEYLriNcesTwshQa2V5E/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DD45Sk6DEYLriNcesTwshQa2V5E/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/iBoFmAqa4dU" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2011/02/2010-yahoo-public-league-average.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-45530695353422518842011-02-17T23:03:00.009+08:002011-02-18T10:56:49.562+08:002011-02-18T10:56:49.562+08:00<div> <p>玩Roto聯盟有個時常看到的策略，就是放棄單項(通常是SV，有時候是SB)來力拚其他項目。這在H2H中更為常見，因為只要每週都能穩穩拿下六項就肯定是冠軍，所以可以放棄一兩個單項來加強其他項目。事實上我自己在小魚聯盟也有多年採用無SV戰略，將資源放到其餘九項上，這背後其實有不少原因，聯盟偏好、喊價制度和未來性考量都有影響。</p> <p>當然在現實中各項目的均衡性和球隊的戰績本來就沒有絕對的關係，一支球隊可以完全不盜壘得到聯盟最多得分，也可能靠著低於平均的打擊和超強的投手群拿下比投打都名列前茅的球隊更多的勝場數，勝利才是球隊唯一的目標，用跑的還是用打的取勝都無所謂。</p> <p>不過既然Roto計分制度上區分各種項目，限制了各單項的最高得分，就是希望遊戲中的球隊可以均衡發展，讓更多類型的選手可以在遊戲中成為戰力，以增加遊戲的變化度，同時也有活化交易的功能在。否則其實只要比VORP或WAR一項，變成Point制，得點高的就是較有價值的球員，總分高的也就是較強的一隊，豈不更貼近現實？</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <p>能不能避免Roto聯盟的球隊放棄任何項目呢？有個很單純的方法可以大幅降低球隊放棄單項的誘因，只要將球隊的總分由各單項的加總改為各單項的<strong>乘積</strong>就可以了。</p> <p>這樣子的話，12分和1分的兩個單項，一下從相當於7分+6分或10分+3分降到相當於4分*3分，單項墊底的傷害大幅增加了。要知道放棄單項的戰略在Roto之所以成立，背景是12人公開聯盟的奪冠條件約是90~100分，90分以上開始有機會，100分大概可以確定封王；所以放棄一項，其餘九項平均拿10分就有機會挑戰冠軍，平均到達11分的話幾乎篤定封王。</p> <p>如果改用乘積的話，單項1分即使配上九項12分(5.16E+09)也還略低於十項都9.5分(5.99E+09)或是六項9分四項10分(5.31E+09)，95分在公開聯盟也不算是穩拿冠軍的分數，如果單項1分配上九項11分(2.36E+09)，那更是只相當於三個8分加上七個9分(2.45E+09)，大約87分的水準幾乎不可能奪冠。所以放棄一個項目就會讓球隊幾乎沒有退路。</p> <p>單項搶2~3分拼其他九項的戰略也很難成功，因為搶2分就不能完全放棄，大家都不想當最後一名，所以勢必得投入一定程度的資源，以SV來說，12隊Mixed聯盟至少也得選一個正牌CL才有機會拿到2分以上，如果大家都這樣想那只拿一個可能還不夠，能省下來的資源攤到其他各項上就幾乎沒有了，還不如乾脆認真地經營SV比較有利。(反過來說可能造成CL前幾輪就被掃光？因為總共就30幾個人選，不選就沒有SV了。)</p> </div> <div> <p>當然這個方法的缺點也很明顯，首先是數字太大，用科學符號表示看起來是還好，但對一般人來說並不直覺。更大的問題是計算分數差距的困難度大增，95-87=8小學生可以用心算算出來，但是乘積5.99E+09和2.45E+09間的差距要怎樣才能追上，能馬上算出來的人恐怕不多。</p> <p>對數可以在這個部份上幫上一些忙，至少從乘法變成加法，但計算難度仍然比原來的計分方式高出很多。十分迫切希望聯盟所有球隊都能均衡發展的聯盟主席，可以貼張對數表在公告欄上嘗試看看。(真的找得到這麼多GM嗎? XD)</p> </div> <div> <p>附錄: 1~12以1.25為底之對數值</p> <table style="text-align:right" cellmargin="0" cellpedding="0"> <tbody> <tr><td>1.0</td><td>0.00</td></tr> <tr><td>2.0</td><td>3.11</td></tr> <tr><td>3.0</td><td>4.92</td></tr> <tr><td>4.0</td><td>6.21</td></tr> <tr><td>5.0</td><td>7.21</td></tr> <tr><td>6.0</td><td>8.03</td></tr> <tr><td>7.0</td><td>8.72</td></tr> <tr><td>8.0</td><td>9.32</td></tr> <tr><td>9.0</td><td>9.85</td></tr> <tr><td>10.0</td><td>10.32</td></tr> <tr><td>11.0</td><td>10.75</td></tr> <tr><td>12.0</td><td>11.14</td></tr> </tbody> </table> <p>各單項分數取log值相加總和較高者，單項分數之乘積也較高，反之亦然。很明顯地，越低分的區域每分造成的差距越大。</p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-4553069535342251884?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/HiBe-BK-a6dkR2WHhtz6L3dy46E/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/HiBe-BK-a6dkR2WHhtz6L3dy46E/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/HiBe-BK-a6dkR2WHhtz6L3dy46E/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/HiBe-BK-a6dkR2WHhtz6L3dy46E/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/wv_DngN4L_g" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2011/02/prevent-punting-categories.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-33084794988976570362011-01-09T15:33:00.002+08:002011-02-17T23:17:58.369+08:002011-02-17T23:17:58.369+08:00<div> <p>下表是用2010年各隊各棒次的實際成績，代入<a href="http://baseball.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/LineupEvaluator/">Lineup Evaluator</a>所算出的結果，但各棒次的GO/AO一律使用全隊平均代替。 </p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <table style="text-align:right;font-family:monospace"> <thead> <tr><td>Team</td><td><strong>實際得分/27</strong></td><td>預估得分/27</td></tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr><td>NYY </td><td>5.4038</td><td>5.1553</td></tr> <tr><td>BOS </td><td>5.0913</td><td>5.1894</td></tr> <tr><td>TBR </td><td>5.0171</td><td>4.5435</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN </td><td>4.9364</td><td>4.8362</td></tr> <tr><td>TEX </td><td>4.8950</td><td>4.7265</td></tr> <tr><td>MIN </td><td>4.8813</td><td>4.8058</td></tr> <tr><td>PHI </td><td>4.8194</td><td>4.5640</td></tr> <tr><td>COL </td><td>4.8125</td><td>4.7117</td></tr> <tr><td>TOR </td><td>4.7407</td><td>4.7072</td></tr> <tr><td>CHW </td><td>4.7000</td><td>4.5296</td></tr> <tr><td>DET </td><td>4.6807</td><td>4.6575</td></tr> <tr><td>MIL </td><td>4.6724</td><td>4.6460</td></tr> <tr><td>ATL </td><td>4.6426</td><td>4.5172</td></tr> <tr><td>STL </td><td>4.5777</td><td>4.3870</td></tr> <tr><td>FLA </td><td>4.4927</td><td>4.2112</td></tr> <tr><td>ARI </td><td>4.4449</td><td>4.4203</td></tr> <tr><td>SFG </td><td>4.3222</td><td>4.2384</td></tr> <tr><td>CHC </td><td>4.2753</td><td>4.1280</td></tr> <tr><td>LAA </td><td>4.2182</td><td>3.9359</td></tr> <tr><td>KCR </td><td>4.1862</td><td>4.4006</td></tr> <tr><td>OAK </td><td>4.1679</td><td>4.1230</td></tr> <tr><td>LAD </td><td>4.1582</td><td>3.9072</td></tr> <tr><td>SDP </td><td>4.1200</td><td>3.8458</td></tr> <tr><td>WSN </td><td>4.0824</td><td>4.0267</td></tr> <tr><td>NYM </td><td>4.0587</td><td>3.9498</td></tr> <tr><td>CLE </td><td>4.0254</td><td>3.9805</td></tr> <tr><td>HOU </td><td>3.8064</td><td>3.5301</td></tr> <tr><td>BAL </td><td>3.7987</td><td>3.9493</td></tr> <tr><td>PIT </td><td>3.6781</td><td>3.6529</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA </td><td>3.1768</td><td>3.2978</td></tr> </tbody> </table> <div> <p>平均來說，預估得分比實際得分低了約2.4%。誤差最多的Rays實際每27出局的得分是5.0171分，但預估得分只有4.5435分，低估了近10%；而高估最多的是Royals，高估了5.12%(4.1862/4.4006)。</p> <table style="text-align:right;font-family:monospace"> <thead> <tr><td>Team</td><td>實際得分/27</td><td>預估得分/27</td><td>誤差值</td><td><strong>誤差比率</strong></td></tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr><td>KCR </td><td>4.1862</td><td>4.4006</td><td>0.2144</td><td>5.12%</td></tr> <tr><td>BAL </td><td>3.7987</td><td>3.9493</td><td>0.1506</td><td>3.96%</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA </td><td>3.1768</td><td>3.2978</td><td>0.1210</td><td>3.81%</td></tr> <tr><td>BOS </td><td>5.0913</td><td>5.1894</td><td>0.0981</td><td>1.93%</td></tr> <tr><td>DET </td><td>4.6807</td><td>4.6575</td><td>-0.0232</td><td>-0.50%</td></tr> <tr><td>ARI </td><td>4.4449</td><td>4.4203</td><td>-0.0246</td><td>-0.55%</td></tr> <tr><td>MIL </td><td>4.6724</td><td>4.6460</td><td>-0.0264</td><td>-0.56%</td></tr> <tr><td>PIT </td><td>3.6781</td><td>3.6529</td><td>-0.0252</td><td>-0.69%</td></tr> <tr><td>TOR </td><td>4.7407</td><td>4.7072</td><td>-0.0335</td><td>-0.71%</td></tr> <tr><td>OAK </td><td>4.1679</td><td>4.1230</td><td>-0.0449</td><td>-1.08%</td></tr> <tr><td>CLE </td><td>4.0254</td><td>3.9805</td><td>-0.0449</td><td>-1.12%</td></tr> <tr><td>WSN </td><td>4.0824</td><td>4.0267</td><td>-0.0557</td><td>-1.36%</td></tr> <tr><td>MIN </td><td>4.8813</td><td>4.8058</td><td>-0.0755</td><td>-1.55%</td></tr> <tr><td>SFG </td><td>4.3222</td><td>4.2384</td><td>-0.0838</td><td>-1.94%</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN </td><td>4.9364</td><td>4.8362</td><td>-0.1002</td><td>-2.03%</td></tr> <tr><td>COL </td><td>4.8125</td><td>4.7117</td><td>-0.1008</td><td>-2.09%</td></tr> <tr><td>NYM </td><td>4.0587</td><td>3.9498</td><td>-0.1089</td><td>-2.68%</td></tr> <tr><td>ATL </td><td>4.6426</td><td>4.5172</td><td>-0.1254</td><td>-2.70%</td></tr> <tr><td>TEX </td><td>4.8950</td><td>4.7265</td><td>-0.1685</td><td>-3.44%</td></tr> <tr><td>CHC </td><td>4.2753</td><td>4.1280</td><td>-0.1473</td><td>-3.45%</td></tr> <tr><td>CHW </td><td>4.7000</td><td>4.5296</td><td>-0.1704</td><td>-3.63%</td></tr> <tr><td>STL </td><td>4.5777</td><td>4.3870</td><td>-0.1907</td><td>-4.17%</td></tr> <tr><td>NYY </td><td>5.4038</td><td>5.1553</td><td>-0.2485</td><td>-4.60%</td></tr> <tr><td>PHI </td><td>4.8194</td><td>4.5640</td><td>-0.2554</td><td>-5.30%</td></tr> <tr><td>LAD </td><td>4.1582</td><td>3.9072</td><td>-0.2510</td><td>-6.04%</td></tr> <tr><td>FLA </td><td>4.4927</td><td>4.2112</td><td>-0.2815</td><td>-6.27%</td></tr> <tr><td>SDP </td><td>4.1200</td><td>3.8458</td><td>-0.2742</td><td>-6.66%</td></tr> <tr><td>LAA </td><td>4.2182</td><td>3.9359</td><td>-0.2823</td><td>-6.69%</td></tr> <tr><td>HOU </td><td>3.8064</td><td>3.5301</td><td>-0.2763</td><td>-7.26%</td></tr> <tr><td>TBR </td><td>5.0171</td><td>4.5435</td><td>-0.4736</td><td>-9.44%</td></tr> </tbody> </table> <p>造成得分普遍低估的可能原因有很多，最直接的就是壘上有人時打者會打得比較好，這點是有數據支持的，原因可能是防守方在壘上有跑者時投球和守備上都比較困難‧但程式裡沒有區分，不管壘上有幾個跑者都一律以平均成績來推算事件的機率，就造成了得分的低估。 </p> <p>而Rays的得分超過預估最多倒是很好解釋，得分預估程式中GDP的發生機率是聯盟平均，再乘上可能發生的機會(壘上有人，未滿兩出局，打者擊出滾地出局)，並不考慮打者與跑者的能力‧而Rays在2010年的GDP是全聯盟最低，僅有92次。再加上觸身保送率及跑者額外進壘率上，Rays去年也都名列前茅，所以實際得分超過計算結果甚多就不令人意外了。 </p> <p>反倒是誤差比率第二名的Astros比較難解釋，Astros的GDP%, HBP%和XBT%都不算出色，只有ROE%在前段班，只能說他們2010年對得分機會的把握比其他隊好吧。因為其他得分預測公式如XR及RC也都十分低估他們的得分。 </p> </div> <div> <p>講到這裡，最後來看看各種得分預測公式在2010年的準確度。</p> <table style="text-align:right;font-family:monospace" cellpadding="4"> <thead> <tr><td></td><td>平均</td><td>相關係數</td><td>RMSE</td><td>最大高估率</td><td>最大低估率</td></tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr><td><a href="http://baseball.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/LineupEvaluator/">LE/27</a></td><td>4.3191 (-0.1092)</td><td>0.9518</td><td>0.1830</td><td>5.12%</td><td>-9.44%</td> <tr><td><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-advanced-batting.shtml">RC/27</a></td><td>4.6713 (+0.2429)</td><td>0.9576</td><td>0.2798</td><td>11.11%</td><td>-2.12%</td> <tr><td><a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/bsrexpl.html">LWTS'/27</a></td><td>4.4851 (+0.0568)</td><td>0.9589</td><td>0.1480</td><td>8.68%</td><td>-6.17%</td> <tr><td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrapolated_Runs">XR/27</a></td><td>4.5194 (+0.0911)</td><td>0.9642</td><td>0.1549</td><td>9.96%</td><td>-3.62%</td> <tr><td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrapolated_Runs">XRB/27</a></td><td>4.5097 (+0.0813)</td><td>0.9588</td><td>0.1576</td><td>9.69%</td><td>-5.49%</td> </tbody> </table> <p>基本上還是完整版的XR最準確；RC/27因為普遍高估太多所以在絕對數據上吃了大虧，以相對分數來說它和LWTS及XRB其實可說是沒有差距的；Lineup Evaluator的準確度和這幾個老前輩相比，還是有段極小的差距，但也算是相當準了。畢竟Lineup Evaluator最主要的目標是在判別同樣的數據下，不同的棒次排列造成的影響，而不是以球隊總成績來估計球隊得分。 </p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-3308479498897657036?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/gMTpeKC7EgikpWsX_2h-2rveNi8/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/gMTpeKC7EgikpWsX_2h-2rveNi8/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/gMTpeKC7EgikpWsX_2h-2rveNi8/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/gMTpeKC7EgikpWsX_2h-2rveNi8/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/f5uMkF18A-0" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2011/01/2010-lineup-evaluation-review.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-46199155289969821632010-10-24T13:21:00.000+08:002010-10-24T13:21:11.126+08:002010-10-24T13:21:11.126+08:00<div> <p>延續<a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/10/2010-fantasy-baseball-value-batters.html">前一篇</a>的話題, 來看看投手部份的成績</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <h4>先發投手</h4> <div>前十名</div> <ol> <li>Roy Halladay, 33.74</li> <li>Adam Wainwright, 31.86</li> <li>Felix Hernandez, 27.57</li> <li>Ubaldo Jimenez, 24.10</li> <li>Jered Weaver, 22.01</li> <li>Roy Oswalt, 21.95</li> <li>David Price, 21.88</li> <li>Jon Lester, 21.23</li> <li>CC Sabathia, 20.53</li> <li>Mat Latos, 20.09</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>David Price, +20.50 (1.37 → 21.88)</li> <li>Mat Latos, +16.87 (3.22 → 20.09)</li> <li>Clay Buchholz, +16.31 (0.74 → 17.05)</li> <li>Trevor Cahill, +16.73 (0.00 → 16.73)</li> <li>Ubaldo Jimenez, +14.75 (9.35 → 24.10)</li> <li>Roy Oswalt, +14.22 (7.74 → 21.95)</li> <li>Jered Weaver, +13.99 (8.01 → 22.01)</li> <li>Adam Wainwright, +13.38 (18.48 → 31.86)</li> <li>Tim Hudson, +12.72 (3.58 → 12.72)</li> <li>Brett Myers, +11.37 (0.00 → 11.37)</li> <li>Francisco Liriano, +11.12 (0.00 → 11.12)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Javier Vazquez, -29.91 (21.14 → -8.77)</li> <li>Josh Beckett, -31.74 (18.05 → -13.69)</li> <li>Zack Greinke, -23.76 (24.38 → 0.62)</li> <li>Scott Kazmir, -24.93 (6.59 → -18.34)</li> <li>Dan Haren, -20.07 (25.30 → 5.23)</li> <li>James Shields, -19.32 (11.20 → -8.12)</li> <li>A.J. Burnett, -18.59 (4.57 → -14.01)</li> <li>Rich Harden, -24.08 (11.05 → -13.02)</li> <li>Tim Lincecum, -16.35 (31.35 → 15.00)</li> <li>Jair Jurrjens, -18.38 (12.14 → -6.24)</li> </ol> <h4>後援投手</h4> <div>前十名</div> <ol> <li>Billy Wagner, 25.24</li> <li>Heath Bell, 21.10</li> <li>Rafael Soriano, 19.86</li> <li>Brian Wilson, 19.62</li> <li>Neftali Feliz, 17.83</li> <li>Carlos Marmol, 17.41</li> <li>Joakim Soria, 15.80</li> <li>Mariano Rivera, 14.47</li> <li>Matt Capps, 14.43</li> <li>John Axford, 14.04</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Neftali Feliz, +13.67 (4.17 → 17.83)</li> <li>John Axford, +14.04 (0.00 → 14.04)</li> <li>Billy Wagner, +9.25 (15.99 → 25.24)</li> <li>Hong-Chih Kuo, +9.00 (2.63 → 11.63)</li> <li>Tyler Clippard, +8.10 (1.90 → 10.01)</li> <li>Chris Perez, +7.53 (1.78 → 9.31)</li> <li>Sean Marshall, +7.23 (0.00 → 7.23)</li> <li>Joaquin Benoit, +7.17 (0.00 → 7.17)</li> <li>Matt Belisle, +6.70 (0.00 → 6.70)</li> <li>Evan Meek, +6.65 (0.00 → 6.65)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Chad Qualls, -26.00 (14.57 → -11.43)</li> <li>Francisco Rodriguez, -25.07 (16.38 → -8.68)</li> <li>Trevor Hoffman, -22.13 (15.59 → -6.54)</li> <li>Jonathan Broxton, -19.89 (24.13 → 4.24)</li> <li>Frank Francisco, -12.35 (13.53 → 1.18)</li> <li>Kerry Wood, -12.77 (12.50 → -0.27)</li> <li>Bobby Jenks, -10.95 (13.43 → 2.48)</li> <li>Huston Street, -13.73 (19.79 → 6.05)</li> <li>George Sherrill, -17.43 (5.19 → -12.24)</li> <li>Jonathan Papelbon, -9.23 (20.63 → 11.40)</li> </ol> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-4619915528996982163?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/eWcpz2DMXsYYlGhdFmRZtAuJqPc/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/eWcpz2DMXsYYlGhdFmRZtAuJqPc/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/eWcpz2DMXsYYlGhdFmRZtAuJqPc/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/eWcpz2DMXsYYlGhdFmRZtAuJqPc/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/A_Zzp1W7lus" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/10/2010-fantasy-baseball-value-pitchers.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-13269105257348838862010-10-15T20:05:00.005+08:002010-10-15T20:17:32.906+08:002010-10-15T20:17:32.906+08:00<div> <p>2010年Fantasy Value季末結算: <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ag-fynTrrsH3dHRDMlZ4UWhURExyLURXSzZ5eXc3NVE&hl=zh_TW&output=html">Google文件連結</a></p> <p>聯盟設定為Yahoo! Public League, 季前價值是使用各家預測加權平均的成績所算出的.</p> <p>以下依照守位快速檢視一下打者部份:</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <h4>捕手</h4> <div>前三名</div> <ol> <li>Joe Mauer, 21.00</li> <li>Victor Martinez, 18.69</li> <li>Brian McCann, 15.42</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Buster Posey, +13.81 (0.00 → 13.81)</li> <li>John Buck, +10.73 (0.00 → 10.73)</li> <li>Miguel Olivo, +7.97 (0.00 → 7.97)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Russell Martin, -17.03 (10.49 → -6.53)</li> <li>Matt Wieters, -10.64 (7.39 → -3.25)</li> <li>Joe Mauer, -10.81 (31.80 → 21.00)</li> </ol> <h4>一壘手</h4> <div>前三名</div> <ol> <li>Albert Pujols, 45.37</li> <li>Joey Votto, 42.53</li> <li>Miguel Cabrera, 42.00</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Paul Korneko, +28.47 (3.21 → 31.68)</li> <li>Joey Votto, +20.49 (22.04 → 42.53)</li> <li>Aubrey Huff, +21.95 (0.00 → 21.95)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Lance Berkman, -23.11 (16.67 → -6.44)</li> <li>Prince Fielder, -18.54 (34.54 → 16.00)</li> <li>Ryan Howard, -16.09 (37.31 → 21.21)</li> </ol> <p>沒看到Adam Lind和Carlos Lee名字的原因是因為他們根據季初的守位算在外野手.</p> <h4>二壘手</h4> <div>前三名</div> <ol> <li>Robinson Cano, 32.25</li> <li>Dan Uggla, 27.23</li> <li>Rickie Weeks, 22.97</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Rickie Weeks, +19.19 (3.78 → 22.97)</li> <li>Kelly Johnson, +19.25 (0.00 → 19.25)</li> <li>Robinson Cano, +15.89 (16.37 → 32.25)</li> <li>Dan Uggla, +15.44 (11.79 → 27.23)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Jose Lopez, -17.58 (5.97 → -11.62)</li> <li>Gordon Beckham, -15.00 (6.98 → -8.02)</li> <li>Aaron Hill, -14.39 (11.71 → -2.68)</li> </ol> <p>二壘手的排名大洗牌, 這裡還不算受傷的Utley, Kinsler和Roberts.</p> <h4>三壘手</h4> <div>前三名</div> <ol> <li>Jose Bautista, 40.46</li> <li>David Wright, 27.50</li> <li>Evan Longoria, 26.22</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Jose Bautista, +40.46 (0.00 → 40.46)</li> <li>Adrian Beltre, +20.19 (6.04 → 26.22)</li> <li>Michael Young, +8.14 (9.73 → 17.87)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Paolo Sandoval, -23.76 (22.12 → -1.64)</li> <li>Mark Reynolds, -19.84 (26.72 → 6.88)</li> <li>Alex Rodriguez, -16.31 (37.74 → 21.43)</li> </ol> <h4>游擊手</h4> <div>前三名</div> <ol> <li>Hanley Ramirez, 27.53</li> <li>Troy Tulowitzki, 26.74</li> <li>Derek Jeter, 13.18</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Jose Reyes, +8.16 (4.93 → 13.09)</li> <li>Alex Gonzalez, +6.36 (0.00 → 6.36)</li> <li>Troy Tulowitzki, +5.57 (21.16 → 26.74) <div>考慮到他因傷缺陣了一陣, 效率確實是比季前的預測成績好很多, 不過他季前的O-Rank相當高, 所以似乎也稱不上驚喜?</div></li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Jimmy Rollins, -30.30 (23.36 → -6.94) <div>就算不看因傷缺賽的部份也還是糟了點</div></li> <li>Hanley Ramirez, -16.55 (44.08 → 27.53)</li> <li>Alcides Escobar, -15.98 (3.04 → -12.94)</li> </ol> <p>游擊手和二壘手剛好相反, 令人意外的選手不多.</p> <h4>外野手</h4> <div>前十名</div> <ol> <li>Carlos Gonzalez, 49.26 <div>同時也是今年全聯盟FB價值最高的球員</div></li> <li>Carl Crawford, 39.92</li> <li>Josh Hamilton, 37.50</li> <li>Ryan Braun, 30.10</li> <li>Matt Holliday, 29.82</li> <li>Alex Rios, 27.25</li> <li>Jayson Werth, 26.79</li> <li>Vladimir Guerrero, 26.01</li> <li>Chris Young, 24.73</li> <li>Shin-Soo Choo, 24.44</li> </ol> <div>令人驚喜的球員</div> <ol> <li>Carlos Gonzalez, +41.31 (7.95 → 49.26) <div>也是全聯盟超出季前預期最多的球員</div></li> <li>Josh Hamilton, +29.70 (7.80 → 37.50)</li> <li>Chris Young, +24.73 (0.00 → 24.73)</li> <li>Alex Rios, +20.65 (6.60 → 27.25)</li> <li>Drew Stubbs, +20.10 (0.00 → 20.10)</li> <li>Delmon Young, +19.73 (0.42 → 20.15)</li> <li>Angel Pagan, +19.28 (0.00 → 19.28)</li> <li>Brett Gardner, +17.38 (0.00 → 17.38)</li> <li>Juan Pierre, +16.89 (5.99 → 22.88)</li> <li>Vladimir Guerrero, +16.37 (9.63 → 26.01)</li> </ol> <div>令人失望的球員</div> <ol> <li>Nate McLouth, -38.31 (17.28 → -21.03) <div>因傷缺陣的一個半月可以不算, 但是被下放造成的損失就該算進去了.</div></li> <li>Adam Lind, -20.42 (18.23 → -2.19)</li> <li>Matt Kemp, -18.40 (35.88 → 17.47)</li> <li>Brad Hawpe, -22.27 (7.92 → -14.36)</li> <li>Justin Upton, -15.39 (26.06 → 10.67)</li> <li>Carlos Lee, -15.99 (21.62 → 5.63)</li> <li>Jason Bay, -33.43 (25.43 → -8.00) <div>如果把他的成績放大到590AB大概值$7.5, 即使這樣還是很糟糕.</div></li> <li>Julio Borbon, -15.35 (10.96 → -4.39)</li> <li>Ryan Ludwick, -14.06 (12.49 → -1.57)</li> <li>Nyjer Morgan, -13.82 (8.62 → -5.19)</li> </ol> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-1326910525734883886?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Va-zXuEL8oiScsaJdB9ZPbbx1ic/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Va-zXuEL8oiScsaJdB9ZPbbx1ic/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Va-zXuEL8oiScsaJdB9ZPbbx1ic/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Va-zXuEL8oiScsaJdB9ZPbbx1ic/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/17Xx5i1Zlho" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/10/2010-fantasy-baseball-value-batters.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-85345621202412351312010-05-23T22:48:00.004+08:002010-05-25T15:14:20.057+08:002010-05-25T15:14:20.057+08:00<div> <p>原文見此: <a href="http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/does-10-10-10-30-part-i/" target="_blank">http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/does-10-10-10-30-part-i/</a></p> <p>你會拿一個$30的球員去換三個$10的球員嗎?</p> <p>LPP在這篇文章中分析了少換多的交易. 觀念沒有很新奇, 但講得挺清楚的.</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <p>首先, 得到三名球員的這隊需要丟出陣中兩名最差的球員, 而丟出三個球員的這隊需要由FA補上兩名球員. 所以更恰當的比較是$30+$1+$1換$11+$11+$10, 雙方價值差不多, 甚至可能總和成績也差不多.</p> </div> <div> <p>兩個包裹最大的差別是: 當一個$5~$10的球員突然出現在FA時, 前者可以將一名$1球員換掉以增強球隊陣容, 但後者無法因此得利.</p> <p>換言之, 收到$30+$1+$1這組的球隊得到了彈性.</p> </div> <div> <p>另一個差別在於, 當$30球員受傷時, 球隊的損失是$10球員受傷的三倍; 但$1球員受傷對球隊幾乎不會造成傷害. 如果球員們的受傷機率相同, 那兩個包裹因傷損失的期望值<strong>平均來說</strong>也是相同的.</p> <p>不同的地方在於: $30球員受傷的機率比較低, 但一旦受傷造成的損失較大. 3個$10球員風險較分散, 其中有人受傷的機率較高, 但大傷害的機率較低.</p> <p>換言之, 如果拿到$30+$1+$1這組的有80%的機會第一名和20%第十名, $11+$10+$10這組可能是51%第一名, 38%第三名, 10%第七名, 1%第十名. 如果GM不在意第三名和第十名的差別, 只在意奪冠的機率, 那前者仍是比較好的選擇.</p> <p>特殊情況是: 如果已經領先到可以容忍一名$10球員受傷仍能奪冠時, 以少換多不失為一種分散風險的做法.</p> </div> <div> <p>總體來講, 在這兩組包裹中選擇$30+$1+$1的組合, 在現實中是比較有利的. 有經驗的GM們瞭解這一點(不管有沒有意識到), 所以他們不會花太多資源在$5~$20這個等級的球員上, 而是儘量採用高價球員和替代等級球員的組合, 來保持球隊陣容的彈性.</p> <p>這個問題對Fantasy估價器的影響尤其明顯. 如果純由數據來看, 高價球員在喊價選秀上普遍性的被overpaid, 而中價球員大都被underpaid. 但這並不見得是GM們在價值評估上犯了錯誤, 而是一般估價器無法確實地反映高價球員帶來的陣容彈性的價值.</p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-8534562120241235131?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/OiHz6DYygunZomKJrE6FRKj1EoA/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/OiHz6DYygunZomKJrE6FRKj1EoA/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/OiHz6DYygunZomKJrE6FRKj1EoA/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/OiHz6DYygunZomKJrE6FRKj1EoA/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/LM0FjkHy1Mo" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/05/10-10-10-30.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-67979337907151041812010-04-13T22:07:00.003+08:002010-04-14T00:34:21.293+08:002010-04-14T00:34:21.293+08:00<div> <p>今天突然心血來潮逛到很久沒看的FB Blog: <a href ="http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/" target="_blank">Last Player Picked</a>, 發現多了很多新文章. LPP的FB文章都很不錯, 理路正確, 邏輯清楚, 而且寫得不難懂. 有時間再來寫一些文章的心得.</p> <p>不過首先要講的是上面提到的另一個網站<a href="http://sites.google.com/site/steamerprojections/" target="_blank">Steamer</a>整理的<a href="http://sites.google.com/site/steamerprojections/2009-forecast-evalutions" target="_blank">2009各家預測打擊成績比較</a>.</p> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <p>在這篇文章中,Steamer以FB的觀點比較了八個預測成績: Steamer自身, Marcel, PECOTA, Chone, ZiPS, SportingNews, Fantistics和2008年成績.</p> <p>結論是: Chone和ZiPS在所有比率數據( (R+RBI)/PA, HR/AB, SB/PA, OPS)上都位居前兩名, Chone略勝一點, 但兩者的預測成績極為接近.</p> <p>Fantistics和SportingNews兩個人工預測差不多在所有比率數據都輸給公式型預測, 當然還是比直接複製2008年成績好一些. 不過Fantistics在PA的預測遙遙領先, 連帶著在<span alt="Standings Gain Points">SGPs</span>(FB Value)上也取得了顯著的勝利.</p> <p>當然Fantistics有點勝之不武, 因為Chone, ZiPS和PECOTA沒有真的去預測打者的PA, Marcel的PA預測也很簡單. 而打者的FB Value和打席數又高度相關, 所以Fantistics可靠著打席準確度的大幅領先在FB Value預測稱王.</p> <p>不過我們從這裡得到的收穫是: 公式預測在比率數據上的表現明顯比專家預測好, 但預測打席數差距太大所以不實用. 我們可以兼取兩家之長, 以專家預測的打席數, 乘上公式預測中最佳的Chone或ZiPS(或兩者平均, 反正兩個數據差不多)的比率數據, 簡單地得到更佳的預測.</p> <p>Steamer上也有<a href="http://sites.google.com/site/steamerprojections/2009-pitcher-forecast-evaluation" target="_blank">投手的預測成績比較</a>, 不過我覺得比較的方法沒有打者這篇好.</p> <p>同樣的是, 公式預測在比率數據上的表現仍然比兩個專家預測好, ZiPS在ERA和WHIP上大幅領先, 但是K/9的表現不好. Fantistics仍是在IP上穩居第一, 並靠此奪下SGPs的冠軍. 我們也可以用同樣的方法組合兩種預測來提高準確度.</p> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-6797933790715104181?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5CLi5TsVoOpCA7zmAKUVMV-Kddk/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5CLi5TsVoOpCA7zmAKUVMV-Kddk/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5CLi5TsVoOpCA7zmAKUVMV-Kddk/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5CLi5TsVoOpCA7zmAKUVMV-Kddk/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/X8b-e8wJss8" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com1http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2009-forecast-evaluations.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-55791099192592757892010-04-11T21:10:00.001+08:002010-04-12T15:46:22.278+08:002010-04-12T15:46:22.278+08:00<div> <div> <p>預測先發打線得分總排名</p> </div> <h4>NL</h4> <dl> <dt>Tier 1</dt> <dd>#1 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-philadelphia.html">Philadelphia Phillies</a> : 820</dd> <dt>Tier 2</dt> <dd>#2 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-st-louis.html">St. Louis Cardinals</a> : 792</dd> <dd>#3 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-atlanta-braves.html">Atlanta Braves</a> : 791</dd> <dd>#4 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-arizona.html">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> : 781</dd> <dd>#5 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-los-angeles.html">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> : 777</dd> <dt>Tier 3</dt> <dd>#6 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-chicago-cubs.html">Chicago Cubs</a> : 767</dd> <dd>#7 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-new-york-mets.html">New York Mets</a> : 766</dd> <dd>#8 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-colorado-rockies.html">Colorado Rockies</a> : 750</dd> <dt>Tier 4</dt> <dd>#9 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-florida-marlins.html">Florida Marlins</a> : 708</dd> <dd>#10 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-milwaukee.html">Milwaukee Brewers</a> : 698</dd> <dd>#11 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-washington.html">Washington Nationals</a> : 689</dd> <dd>#12 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-san-francisco.html">San Francisco Giants</a> : 688</dd> <dd>#13 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-pittsburgh.html">Pittsburgh Pirates</a> : 683</dd> <dd>#14 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-cincinnati-reds.html">Cincinnati Reds</a> : 681</dd> <dt>Tier 5</dt> <dd>#15 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-houston-astros.html">Houston Astros</a> : 662</dd> <dt>Tier 6</dt> <dd>#16 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-san-diego-padres.html">San Diego Padres</a> : 580</dd> </dl> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <h4>AL</h4> <dl> <dt>Tier 1</dt> <dd>#1 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-boston-red-sox.html">Boston Red Sox</a> : 918</dd> <dd>#2 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-new-york-yankees.html">New York Yankees</a> : 901</dd> <dt>Tier 2</dt> <dd>#3 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-minnesota-twins.html">Minnesota Twins</a> : 860</dd> <dt>Tier 3</dt> <dd>#4 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-los-angeles_07.html">Los Angeles Angels</a> : 833</dd> <dd>#5 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-texas-rangers.html">Texas Rangers</a> : 829</dd> <dt>Tier 4</dt> <dd>#6 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-tampa-bay-rays.html">Tampa Bay Rays</a> : 813</dd> <dd>#7 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-baltimore.html">Baltimore Orioles</a> : 813</dd> <dd>#8 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-cleveland.html">Cleveland Indians</a> : 802</dd> <dt>Tier 5</dt> <dd>#9 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-chicago-white.html">Chicago White Sox</a> : 760</dd> <dt>Tier 6</dt> <dd>#10 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-oakland.html">Oakland Athletics</a> : 729</dd> <dd>#11 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-detroit-tigers.html">Detroit Tigers</a> : 722</dd> <dd>#12 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-kansas-city.html">Kansas City Royals</a> : 721</dd> <dd>#13 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-toronto-blue.html">Toronto Blue Jays</a> : 719</dd> <dd>#14 <a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-seattle-mariners.html">Seattle Mariners</a> : 718</dd> </dl> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-5579109919259275789?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/0YYggjLBfpKfdRz-2yWgvwh86WU/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/0YYggjLBfpKfdRz-2yWgvwh86WU/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/0YYggjLBfpKfdRz-2yWgvwh86WU/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/0YYggjLBfpKfdRz-2yWgvwh86WU/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/_fIPrT4_kL0" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/evaluate-lineups-2010-ranking.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-86599400229381893942010-04-10T20:30:00.000+08:002010-04-10T20:30:18.174+08:002010-04-10T20:30:18.174+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec8.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 719</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Bautista,Jose </td><td>0.227</td><td>0.323</td><td>0.389</td><td>0.317</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Hill,Aaron </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.447</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Lind,Adam </td><td>0.277</td><td>0.341</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.356</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Wells,Vernon </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.319</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.327</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Overbay,Lyle </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.416</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Encarnacion,Edwin </td><td>0.233</td><td>0.312</td><td>0.397</td><td>0.312</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Buck,John </td><td>0.221</td><td>0.288</td><td>0.422</td><td>0.305</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Gonzalez,Sea Bass </td><td>0.231</td><td>0.277</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.277</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Snider,Travis </td><td>0.240</td><td>0.332</td><td>0.452</td><td>0.339</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec9.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 723</a></dd> </dl> <p>(恐怖的是這已經是藍鳥拿得出來的最佳打線了)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Bautista,Jose </td><td>0.227</td><td>0.323</td><td>0.389</td><td>0.317</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Overbay,Lyle </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.416</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Snider,Travis </td><td>0.240</td><td>0.332</td><td>0.452</td><td>0.339</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Lind,Adam </td><td>0.277</td><td>0.341</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.356</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Hill,Aaron </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.447</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Wells,Vernon </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.319</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.327</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Encarnacion,Edwin </td><td>0.233</td><td>0.312</td><td>0.397</td><td>0.312</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Buck,John </td><td>0.221</td><td>0.288</td><td>0.422</td><td>0.305</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Gonzalez,Sea Bass </td><td>0.231</td><td>0.277</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.277</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-8659940022938189394?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/aJfcPcyUnO1SAw8m-t3ur3YfzXw/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/aJfcPcyUnO1SAw8m-t3ur3YfzXw/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/aJfcPcyUnO1SAw8m-t3ur3YfzXw/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/aJfcPcyUnO1SAw8m-t3ur3YfzXw/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/Nokm2OtBFoc" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com1http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-toronto-blue.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-56307118305822853522010-04-10T20:20:00.000+08:002010-04-10T20:20:37.190+08:002010-04-10T20:20:37.190+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec5.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 813</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Bartlett,Jason </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.405</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Crawford,Carl </td><td>0.293</td><td>0.344</td><td>0.444</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Zobrist,Ben </td><td>0.261</td><td>0.358</td><td>0.443</td><td>0.354</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Longoria,Evan </td><td>0.272</td><td>0.351</td><td>0.525</td><td>0.376</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Pena,Carlos </td><td>0.243</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.524</td><td>0.378</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Upton,B.J. </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.349</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.341</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Burrell,Pat </td><td>0.230</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Shoppach,Kelly </td><td>0.219</td><td>0.293</td><td>0.414</td><td>0.307</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Rodriguez,Sean </td><td>0.229</td><td>0.300</td><td>0.400</td><td>0.307</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec6.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 819</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Burrell,Pat </td><td>0.230</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Pena,Carlos </td><td>0.243</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.524</td><td>0.378</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Zobrist,Ben </td><td>0.261</td><td>0.358</td><td>0.443</td><td>0.354</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Longoria,Evan </td><td>0.272</td><td>0.351</td><td>0.525</td><td>0.376</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Upton,B.J. </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.349</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.341</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Crawford,Carl </td><td>0.293</td><td>0.344</td><td>0.444</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Bartlett,Jason </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.405</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Rodriguez,Sean </td><td>0.229</td><td>0.300</td><td>0.400</td><td>0.307</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Shoppach,Kelly </td><td>0.219</td><td>0.293</td><td>0.414</td><td>0.307</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Aybar</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec7.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 833</a></dd> </dl> <p>(ZiPS預測: Joe Dillon > Willy Aybar > Matt Joyce > Sean Rodriguez.)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Burrell,Pat </td><td>0.230</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Pena,Carlos </td><td>0.243</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.524</td><td>0.378</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Zobrist,Ben </td><td>0.261</td><td>0.358</td><td>0.443</td><td>0.354</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Longoria,Evan </td><td>0.272</td><td>0.351</td><td>0.525</td><td>0.376</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Upton,B.J. </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.349</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.341</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Crawford,Carl </td><td>0.293</td><td>0.344</td><td>0.444</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Bartlett,Jason </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.405</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Aybar,Willy </td><td>0.257</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.417</td><td>0.327</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Shoppach,Kelly </td><td>0.219</td><td>0.293</td><td>0.414</td><td>0.307</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-5630711830582285352?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Wcv5Fk13R7WBNIbSFPrh0Ak_1LA/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Wcv5Fk13R7WBNIbSFPrh0Ak_1LA/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Wcv5Fk13R7WBNIbSFPrh0Ak_1LA/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Wcv5Fk13R7WBNIbSFPrh0Ak_1LA/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/2j83Tmg5z80" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-tampa-bay-rays.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-79090059299869597322010-04-10T20:10:00.000+08:002010-04-10T20:10:57.049+08:002010-04-10T20:10:57.049+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec2.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 901</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Jeter,Derek </td><td>0.303</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.424</td><td>0.355</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Johnson,Nick </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.378</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Teixeira,Mark </td><td>0.280</td><td>0.367</td><td>0.505</td><td>0.376</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Rodriguez,Alex </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.375</td><td>0.526</td><td>0.390</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Cano,Robinson </td><td>0.296</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.474</td><td>0.346</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Posada,Jorge </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Granderson,Curtis </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.335</td><td>0.473</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Swisher,Nick </td><td>0.243</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.446</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Gardner,Brett </td><td>0.253</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.344</td><td>0.315</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec3.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 902</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Jeter,Derek </td><td>0.303</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.424</td><td>0.355</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Johnson,Nick </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.378</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Rodriguez,Alex </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.375</td><td>0.526</td><td>0.390</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Teixeira,Mark </td><td>0.280</td><td>0.367</td><td>0.505</td><td>0.376</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Cano,Robinson </td><td>0.296</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.474</td><td>0.346</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Posada,Jorge </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Swisher,Nick </td><td>0.243</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.446</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Granderson,Curtis </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.335</td><td>0.473</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Gardner,Brett </td><td>0.253</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.344</td><td>0.315</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Thames</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec4.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 913</a></dd> </dl> <p>(ZiPS認定Yankees最好的九名打者)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Johnson,Nick </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.378</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Rodriguez,Alex </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.375</td><td>0.526</td><td>0.390</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Teixeira,Mark </td><td>0.280</td><td>0.367</td><td>0.505</td><td>0.376</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Granderson,Curtis </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.335</td><td>0.473</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Jeter,Derek </td><td>0.303</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.424</td><td>0.355</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Cano,Robinson </td><td>0.296</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.474</td><td>0.346</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Thames,Marcus </td><td>0.238</td><td>0.302</td><td>0.474</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Posada,Jorge </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Swisher,Nick </td><td>0.243</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.446</td><td>0.351</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-7909005929986959732?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5phpthfOTfEW9EZERO7NPW6gyLs/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5phpthfOTfEW9EZERO7NPW6gyLs/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5phpthfOTfEW9EZERO7NPW6gyLs/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/5phpthfOTfEW9EZERO7NPW6gyLs/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/s2ZZlCdl7bk" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-new-york-yankees.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-26328662511074565422010-04-10T20:00:00.000+08:002010-04-10T20:00:33.163+08:002010-04-10T20:00:33.163+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ebz.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 918</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Ellsbury,Jacoby </td><td>0.290</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.398</td><td>0.341</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Pedroia,Dustin </td><td>0.306</td><td>0.372</td><td>0.451</td><td>0.365</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Martinez,Victor </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.470</td><td>0.367</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Youkilis,Kevin </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.491</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Ortiz,David </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.507</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Drew,J.D. </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.382</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.370</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Beltre,Adrian </td><td>0.276</td><td>0.326</td><td>0.454</td><td>0.339</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Cameron,Mike </td><td>0.252</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.442</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Scutaro,Marco </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.379</td><td>0.420</td><td>0.358</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec0.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 925</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Scutaro,Marco </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.379</td><td>0.420</td><td>0.358</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Drew,J.D. </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.382</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.370</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ortiz,David </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.507</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Youkilis,Kevin </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.491</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Pedroia,Dustin </td><td>0.306</td><td>0.372</td><td>0.451</td><td>0.365</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Martinez,Victor </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.470</td><td>0.367</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Cameron,Mike </td><td>0.252</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.442</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Beltre,Adrian </td><td>0.276</td><td>0.326</td><td>0.454</td><td>0.339</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Ellsbury,Jacoby </td><td>0.290</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.398</td><td>0.341</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Lowell and Hermida</dt> <dd><a href="http://ec1.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 933</a></dd> </dl> <p>(這也是ZiPS認定最佳的九名打者. Beltre的OPS和wOBA比Hermida好, 但是這種打線上Hermida可以製造更多的分數.)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Scutaro,Marco </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.379</td><td>0.420</td><td>0.358</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Drew,J.D. </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.382</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.370</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ortiz,David </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.507</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Youkilis,Kevin </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.491</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Pedroia,Dustin </td><td>0.306</td><td>0.372</td><td>0.451</td><td>0.365</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Martinez,Victor </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.470</td><td>0.367</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Lowell,Mike </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.341</td><td>0.453</td><td>0.345</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Hermida,Jeremy </td><td>0.263</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.429</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Cameron,Mike </td><td>0.252</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.442</td><td>0.343</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-2632866251107456542?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/C6SR9EtzhUEjGZb6clcIU-9lIPI/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/C6SR9EtzhUEjGZb6clcIU-9lIPI/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/C6SR9EtzhUEjGZb6clcIU-9lIPI/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/C6SR9EtzhUEjGZb6clcIU-9lIPI/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/UdCec6wHZ2s" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-boston-red-sox.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-87049710312947826992010-04-10T19:48:00.000+08:002010-04-10T19:48:42.950+08:002010-04-10T19:48:42.950+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ebv.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 813</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Roberts,Brian </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.360</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Jones,Adam </td><td>0.278</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.479</td><td>0.349</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Markakis,Nick </td><td>0.295</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.479</td><td>0.369</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Tejada,Miguel </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.334</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Scott,Luke </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Atkins,Garrett </td><td>0.267</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.428</td><td>0.337</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Wieters,Matt </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Reimold,Nolan </td><td>0.273</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.440</td><td>0.344</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Izturis,Cesar </td><td>0.259</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.321</td><td>0.283</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ebw.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 816</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Roberts,Brian </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.360</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Wieters,Matt </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Scott,Luke </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Markakis,Nick </td><td>0.295</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.479</td><td>0.369</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Reimold,Nolan </td><td>0.273</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.440</td><td>0.344</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Atkins,Garrett </td><td>0.267</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.428</td><td>0.337</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Jones,Adam </td><td>0.278</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.479</td><td>0.349</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Tejada,Miguel </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.334</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Izturis,Cesar </td><td>0.259</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.321</td><td>0.283</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Wigginton</dt> <dd><a href="http://ebx.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 848</a></dd> </dl> <p>(這是ZiPS預測金鶯陣中最好的九名打者)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Roberts,Brian </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.360</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Markakis,Nick </td><td>0.295</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.479</td><td>0.369</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Scott,Luke </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.343</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Jones,Adam </td><td>0.278</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.479</td><td>0.349</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Wieters,Matt </td><td>0.282</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Reimold,Nolan </td><td>0.273</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.440</td><td>0.344</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Wigginton,Ty </td><td>0.280</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.461</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Tejada,Miguel </td><td>0.297</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.433</td><td>0.334</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Atkins,Garrett </td><td>0.267</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.428</td><td>0.337</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-8704971031294782699?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/REnFeqZ_cQz-0o4s616FJItcBOk/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/REnFeqZ_cQz-0o4s616FJItcBOk/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/REnFeqZ_cQz-0o4s616FJItcBOk/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/REnFeqZ_cQz-0o4s616FJItcBOk/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/go-3pOGvW1M" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-baltimore.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-67574272577439407262010-04-09T21:10:00.000+08:002010-04-09T21:10:18.673+08:002010-04-09T21:10:18.673+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eb0.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 860</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Span,Denard </td><td>0.290</td><td>0.364</td><td>0.392</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Hudson,Orlando </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.349</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.337</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Mauer,Joe </td><td>0.336</td><td>0.423</td><td>0.525</td><td>0.413</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Morneau,Justin </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.512</td><td>0.380</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Cuddyer,Michael </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.347</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.357</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Kubel,Jason </td><td>0.278</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.484</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Young,Delmon </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.326</td><td>0.426</td><td>0.328</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Hardy,J.J. </td><td>0.258</td><td>0.318</td><td>0.419</td><td>0.322</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Punto,Nick </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.311</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eb1.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 871</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Mauer,Joe </td><td>0.336</td><td>0.423</td><td>0.525</td><td>0.413</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Morneau,Justin </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.512</td><td>0.380</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Kubel,Jason </td><td>0.278</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.484</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Cuddyer,Michael </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.347</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.357</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Hudson,Orlando </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.349</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.337</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Young,Delmon </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.326</td><td>0.426</td><td>0.328</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Hardy,J.J. </td><td>0.258</td><td>0.318</td><td>0.419</td><td>0.322</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Punto,Nick </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.311</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Span,Denard </td><td>0.290</td><td>0.364</td><td>0.392</td><td>0.340</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Thome and Harris</dt> <dd><a href="http://eb2.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 886</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Mauer,Joe </td><td>0.336</td><td>0.423</td><td>0.525</td><td>0.413</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Morneau,Justin </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.512</td><td>0.380</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Kubel,Jason </td><td>0.278</td><td>0.354</td><td>0.484</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Cuddyer,Michael </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.347</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.357</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Hardy,J.J. </td><td>0.258</td><td>0.318</td><td>0.419</td><td>0.322</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Thome,Jim </td><td>0.231</td><td>0.341</td><td>0.432</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Harris,Brendan </td><td>0.267</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.394</td><td>0.319</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Hudson,Orlando </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.349</td><td>0.410</td><td>0.337</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Span,Denard </td><td>0.290</td><td>0.364</td><td>0.392</td><td>0.340</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-6757427257743940726?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/JCMiSa8_ZKU_80m1u5xGxe4Y6Mo/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/JCMiSa8_ZKU_80m1u5xGxe4Y6Mo/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/JCMiSa8_ZKU_80m1u5xGxe4Y6Mo/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/JCMiSa8_ZKU_80m1u5xGxe4Y6Mo/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/cB2Y2n2fJ2E" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-minnesota-twins.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-4640134133233272912010-04-09T21:01:00.000+08:002010-04-09T21:01:03.826+08:002010-04-09T21:01:03.826+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eax.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 721</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>DeJesus,David </td><td>0.285</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.435</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Podsednik,Scott </td><td>0.279</td><td>0.336</td><td>0.384</td><td>0.324</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Butler,Billy </td><td>0.293</td><td>0.359</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Ankiel,Rick </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.314</td><td>0.456</td><td>0.331</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Guillen,Jose </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.312</td><td>0.431</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Gordon,Alex </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Betancourt,Yuniesky </td><td>0.271</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.390</td><td>0.302</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Kendall,Jason </td><td>0.252</td><td>0.317</td><td>0.319</td><td>0.290</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Getz,Chris </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.323</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eay.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 723</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Butler,Billy </td><td>0.293</td><td>0.359</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Gordon,Alex </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ankiel,Rick </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.314</td><td>0.456</td><td>0.331</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>DeJesus,David </td><td>0.285</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.435</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Podsednik,Scott </td><td>0.279</td><td>0.336</td><td>0.384</td><td>0.324</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Getz,Chris </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Guillen,Jose </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.312</td><td>0.431</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Betancourt,Yuniesky </td><td>0.271</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.390</td><td>0.302</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Kendall,Jason </td><td>0.252</td><td>0.317</td><td>0.319</td><td>0.290</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Callapso, Ka'aihue, Pena, and Aviles</dt> <dd><a href="http://eaz.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 770</a></dd> </dl> <p>(換掉的人快比沒換掉的多了. Getz的預測成績比Aviles好, 但我想他和Callapso都不適合守SS)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Kaaihue,Kila </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.403</td><td>0.337</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Butler,Billy </td><td>0.293</td><td>0.359</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ankiel,Rick </td><td>0.255</td><td>0.314</td><td>0.456</td><td>0.331</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>DeJesus,David </td><td>0.285</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.435</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Callaspo,Alberto </td><td>0.290</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.416</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Gordon,Alex </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Pena,Brayan </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.413</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Guillen,Jose </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.312</td><td>0.431</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Aviles,Mike </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.310</td><td>0.403</td><td>0.313</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-464013413323327291?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/TQeAvxV17MaF5Cs4Nao-b9-cCzg/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/TQeAvxV17MaF5Cs4Nao-b9-cCzg/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/TQeAvxV17MaF5Cs4Nao-b9-cCzg/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/TQeAvxV17MaF5Cs4Nao-b9-cCzg/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/1WxvGU7STrI" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-kansas-city.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-89561779943240435872010-04-09T20:46:00.000+08:002010-04-09T20:46:31.160+08:002010-04-09T20:46:31.160+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eau.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 722</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Jackson,Austin </td><td>0.247</td><td>0.300</td><td>0.341</td><td>0.290</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Damon,Johnny </td><td>0.272</td><td>0.353</td><td>0.436</td><td>0.352</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ordonez,Magglio </td><td>0.300</td><td>0.368</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Cabrera,Miguel </td><td>0.305</td><td>0.378</td><td>0.536</td><td>0.392</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Guillen,Carlos </td><td>0.276</td><td>0.357</td><td>0.464</td><td>0.358</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Inge,Brandon </td><td>0.226</td><td>0.299</td><td>0.390</td><td>0.302</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Laird,Gerald </td><td>0.235</td><td>0.295</td><td>0.346</td><td>0.287</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Sizemore,Scott </td><td>0.253</td><td>0.315</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.306</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Everett,Adam </td><td>0.231</td><td>0.285</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.273</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eav.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 726</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Damon,Johnny </td><td>0.272</td><td>0.353</td><td>0.436</td><td>0.352</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Ordonez,Magglio </td><td>0.300</td><td>0.368</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Guillen,Carlos </td><td>0.276</td><td>0.357</td><td>0.464</td><td>0.358</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Cabrera,Miguel </td><td>0.305</td><td>0.378</td><td>0.536</td><td>0.392</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Sizemore,Scott </td><td>0.253</td><td>0.315</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.306</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Inge,Brandon </td><td>0.226</td><td>0.299</td><td>0.390</td><td>0.302</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Laird,Gerald </td><td>0.235</td><td>0.295</td><td>0.346</td><td>0.287</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Everett,Adam </td><td>0.231</td><td>0.285</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.273</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Jackson,Austin </td><td>0.247</td><td>0.300</td><td>0.341</td><td>0.290</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Raburn, Avila, and Santiago</dt> <dd><a href="http://eaw.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 786</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Damon,Johnny </td><td>0.272</td><td>0.353</td><td>0.436</td><td>0.352</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Ordonez,Magglio </td><td>0.300</td><td>0.368</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.362</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Guillen,Carlos </td><td>0.276</td><td>0.357</td><td>0.464</td><td>0.358</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Cabrera,Miguel </td><td>0.305</td><td>0.378</td><td>0.536</td><td>0.392</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Raburn,Ryan </td><td>0.266</td><td>0.334</td><td>0.470</td><td>0.347</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Santiago,Ramon </td><td>0.257</td><td>0.310</td><td>0.374</td><td>0.301</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Inge,Brandon </td><td>0.226</td><td>0.299</td><td>0.390</td><td>0.302</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Avila,Alex </td><td>0.239</td><td>0.314</td><td>0.372</td><td>0.305</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Sizemore,Scott </td><td>0.253</td><td>0.315</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.306</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-8956177994324043587?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/c2jK76ah9KFBWyYwOpi24txdkUo/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/c2jK76ah9KFBWyYwOpi24txdkUo/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/c2jK76ah9KFBWyYwOpi24txdkUo/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/c2jK76ah9KFBWyYwOpi24txdkUo/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/GkJAlb6nSUg" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-detroit-tigers.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-46554220578293160642010-04-08T23:22:00.000+08:002010-04-08T23:22:15.454+08:002010-04-08T23:22:15.454+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ea9.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 802</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Cabrera,Asdrubal </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Sizemore,Grady </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.482</td><td>0.369</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Choo,Shin-Soo </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.466</td><td>0.368</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Hafner,Travis </td><td>0.257</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.448</td><td>0.356</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Peralta,Jhonny </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.329</td><td>0.420</td><td>0.328</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Branyan,Russell </td><td>0.227</td><td>0.327</td><td>0.463</td><td>0.342</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>LaPorta,Matt </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.443</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Marson,Lou </td><td>0.247</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.306</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Valbuena,Luis </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.384</td><td>0.314</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://eaa.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 805</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Choo,Shin-Soo </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.466</td><td>0.368</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Hafner,Travis </td><td>0.257</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.448</td><td>0.356</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Branyan,Russell </td><td>0.227</td><td>0.327</td><td>0.463</td><td>0.342</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Sizemore,Grady </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.482</td><td>0.369</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Cabrera,Asdrubal </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>LaPorta,Matt </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.443</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Peralta,Jhonny </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.329</td><td>0.420</td><td>0.328</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Valbuena,Luis </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.384</td><td>0.314</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Marson,Lou </td><td>0.247</td><td>0.339</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.306</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Santana</dt> <dd><a href="http://eab.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 830</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Santana,Carlos </td><td>0.250</td><td>0.355</td><td>0.429</td><td>0.345</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Hafner,Travis </td><td>0.257</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.448</td><td>0.356</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Branyan,Russell </td><td>0.227</td><td>0.327</td><td>0.463</td><td>0.342</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Sizemore,Grady </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.363</td><td>0.482</td><td>0.369</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Choo,Shin-Soo </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.371</td><td>0.466</td><td>0.368</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Cabrera,Asdrubal </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>LaPorta,Matt </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.443</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Peralta,Jhonny </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.329</td><td>0.420</td><td>0.328</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Valbuena,Luis </td><td>0.256</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.384</td><td>0.314</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-4655422057829316064?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/qNKMbNuug2InZ4lsELGeV2L04do/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/qNKMbNuug2InZ4lsELGeV2L04do/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/qNKMbNuug2InZ4lsELGeV2L04do/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/qNKMbNuug2InZ4lsELGeV2L04do/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/3NcshYkL-L0" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-cleveland.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-37610605019766192242010-04-08T23:13:00.000+08:002010-04-08T23:13:07.690+08:002010-04-08T23:13:07.690+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ea7.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 760</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Pierre,Juan </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.335</td><td>0.357</td><td>0.318</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Beckham,Gordon </td><td>0.267</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.450</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Quentin,Carlos </td><td>0.261</td><td>0.332</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.344</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Konerko,Paul </td><td>0.269</td><td>0.348</td><td>0.465</td><td>0.354</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Jones,Andruw </td><td>0.212</td><td>0.308</td><td>0.416</td><td>0.318</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Rios,Alexis </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.442</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Pierzynski,A.J. </td><td>0.285</td><td>0.321</td><td>0.417</td><td>0.322</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Teahen,Mark </td><td>0.259</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.426</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Ramirez,Alexei </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.336</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://ea8.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 765</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Konerko,Paul </td><td>0.269</td><td>0.348</td><td>0.465</td><td>0.354</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Teahen,Mark </td><td>0.259</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.426</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Quentin,Carlos </td><td>0.261</td><td>0.332</td><td>0.459</td><td>0.344</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Beckham,Gordon </td><td>0.267</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.450</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Ramirez,Alexei </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.338</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.336</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Rios,Alexis </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.442</td><td>0.338</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Pierre,Juan </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.335</td><td>0.357</td><td>0.318</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Pierzynski,A.J. </td><td>0.285</td><td>0.321</td><td>0.417</td><td>0.322</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Jones,Andruw </td><td>0.212</td><td>0.308</td><td>0.416</td><td>0.318</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-3761060501976619224?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/8x_pAZs5T9awJOedi9VIMwA5WYE/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/8x_pAZs5T9awJOedi9VIMwA5WYE/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/8x_pAZs5T9awJOedi9VIMwA5WYE/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/8x_pAZs5T9awJOedi9VIMwA5WYE/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/YamxU1KLhPg" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-chicago-white.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-48382178268625267832010-04-07T21:31:00.000+08:002010-04-07T21:31:27.627+08:002010-04-07T21:31:27.627+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e90.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 829</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Borbon,Julio </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.317</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Young,Michael </td><td>0.301</td><td>0.356</td><td>0.445</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Hamilton,Josh </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.347</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.361</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Guerrero,Vladimir </td><td>0.304</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.509</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Kinsler,Ian </td><td>0.274</td><td>0.346</td><td>0.486</td><td>0.366</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Cruz,Nelson </td><td>0.270</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.512</td><td>0.367</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Davis,Chris </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.331</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Saltalamacchia,Jarrod </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.316</td><td>0.396</td><td>0.312</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Andrus,Elvis </td><td>0.270</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.387</td><td>0.329</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e91.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 833</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Young,Michael </td><td>0.301</td><td>0.356</td><td>0.445</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Guerrero,Vladimir </td><td>0.304</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.509</td><td>0.377</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Cruz,Nelson </td><td>0.270</td><td>0.342</td><td>0.512</td><td>0.367</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Kinsler,Ian </td><td>0.274</td><td>0.346</td><td>0.486</td><td>0.366</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Hamilton,Josh </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.347</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.361</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Davis,Chris </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.303</td><td>0.475</td><td>0.331</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Saltalamacchia,Jarrod </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.316</td><td>0.396</td><td>0.312</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Andrus,Elvis </td><td>0.270</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.387</td><td>0.329</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Borbon,Julio </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.328</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.317</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-4838217826862526783?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DVZ0caXZRWm7OswMmiKm_9PxLPw/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DVZ0caXZRWm7OswMmiKm_9PxLPw/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DVZ0caXZRWm7OswMmiKm_9PxLPw/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/DVZ0caXZRWm7OswMmiKm_9PxLPw/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/Sz9kaBuDkws" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-texas-rangers.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-9161378802626727902010-04-07T21:26:00.000+08:002010-04-07T21:26:46.994+08:002010-04-07T21:26:46.994+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8x.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 718</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Suzuki,Ichiro </td><td>0.325</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.414</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Figgins,Chone </td><td>0.280</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.362</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Kotchman,Casey </td><td>0.271</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.330</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Bradley,Milton </td><td>0.254</td><td>0.367</td><td>0.421</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Griffey Jr. ,Ken </td><td>0.214</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.372</td><td>0.312</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Lopez,Jose </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.310</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.320</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Gutierrez,Franklin </td><td>0.266</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.408</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Wilson,Jack </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.300</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.287</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Johnson,Rob </td><td>0.266</td><td>0.318</td><td>0.356</td><td>0.300</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8y.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 722</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Bradley,Milton </td><td>0.254</td><td>0.367</td><td>0.421</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Figgins,Chone </td><td>0.280</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.362</td><td>0.343</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Suzuki,Ichiro </td><td>0.325</td><td>0.369</td><td>0.414</td><td>0.353</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Kotchman,Casey </td><td>0.271</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.330</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Lopez,Jose </td><td>0.275</td><td>0.310</td><td>0.430</td><td>0.320</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Gutierrez,Franklin </td><td>0.266</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.408</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Wilson,Jack </td><td>0.251</td><td>0.300</td><td>0.345</td><td>0.287</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Johnson,Rob </td><td>0.266</td><td>0.318</td><td>0.356</td><td>0.300</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Griffey Jr. ,Ken </td><td>0.214</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.372</td><td>0.312</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-916137880262672790?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/iSh8hrn69HBPEcPz5sF94wlYKhg/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/iSh8hrn69HBPEcPz5sF94wlYKhg/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/iSh8hrn69HBPEcPz5sF94wlYKhg/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/iSh8hrn69HBPEcPz5sF94wlYKhg/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/_lZbsKGTXQg" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-seattle-mariners.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-2644169121988270682010-04-07T21:12:00.000+08:002010-04-07T21:12:26.941+08:002010-04-07T21:12:26.941+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8u.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 729</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Crisp,Coco </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.317</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Davis,Rajai </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.395</td><td>0.334</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Sweeney,Ryan </td><td>0.291</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.339</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Kouzmanoff,Kevin </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.304</td><td>0.448</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Suzuki,Kurt </td><td>0.277</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.325</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Chavez,Eric </td><td>0.242</td><td>0.319</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.326</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Ellis,Mark </td><td>0.268</td><td>0.327</td><td>0.411</td><td>0.326</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Barton,Daric </td><td>0.268</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.425</td><td>0.347</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Pennington,Cliff </td><td>0.258</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.312</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8v.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 733</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Barton,Daric </td><td>0.268</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.425</td><td>0.347</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Sweeney,Ryan </td><td>0.291</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.339</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Chavez,Eric </td><td>0.242</td><td>0.319</td><td>0.427</td><td>0.326</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Ellis,Mark </td><td>0.268</td><td>0.327</td><td>0.411</td><td>0.326</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Davis,Rajai </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.395</td><td>0.334</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Suzuki,Kurt </td><td>0.277</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.325</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Kouzmanoff,Kevin </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.304</td><td>0.448</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Crisp,Coco </td><td>0.248</td><td>0.324</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.317</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Pennington,Cliff </td><td>0.258</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.312</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Cust, Buck</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8w.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 758</a></dd> </dl> <p>(Cust是ZiPS預測A's最好的打者)</p> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Cust,Jack </td><td>0.240</td><td>0.377</td><td>0.428</td><td>0.359</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Barton,Daric </td><td>0.268</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.425</td><td>0.347</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ellis,Mark </td><td>0.268</td><td>0.327</td><td>0.411</td><td>0.326</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Sweeney,Ryan </td><td>0.291</td><td>0.352</td><td>0.415</td><td>0.339</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Davis,Rajai </td><td>0.286</td><td>0.340</td><td>0.395</td><td>0.334</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Suzuki,Kurt </td><td>0.277</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.325</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Kouzmanoff,Kevin </td><td>0.264</td><td>0.304</td><td>0.448</td><td>0.323</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Buck,Travis </td><td>0.257</td><td>0.325</td><td>0.397</td><td>0.320</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Pennington,Cliff </td><td>0.258</td><td>0.333</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.312</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-264416912198827068?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/q8V3k5FUpu9DVysiVqQB6_ugR7E/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/q8V3k5FUpu9DVysiVqQB6_ugR7E/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/q8V3k5FUpu9DVysiVqQB6_ugR7E/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/q8V3k5FUpu9DVysiVqQB6_ugR7E/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/Wg_JZ3rZw-E" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-oakland.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34998229.post-88846658669820840302010-04-07T20:59:00.000+08:002010-04-07T20:59:41.549+08:002010-04-07T20:59:41.549+08:00<div> <dl> <dt>Projected Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8r.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 833</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Aybar,Erick </td><td>0.289</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.325</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Abreu,Bobby </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.378</td><td>0.436</td><td>0.365</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Hunter,Torii </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.489</td><td>0.363</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Matsui,Hideki </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.462</td><td>0.359</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Morales,Kendry </td><td>0.287</td><td>0.336</td><td>0.485</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Rivera,Juan </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.460</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Kendrick,Howie </td><td>0.294</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.437</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Napoli,Mike </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.361</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Wood,Brandon </td><td>0.244</td><td>0.301</td><td>0.422</td><td>0.314</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="fullpost"> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8s.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 838</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Abreu,Bobby </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.378</td><td>0.436</td><td>0.365</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Matsui,Hideki </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.462</td><td>0.359</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Napoli,Mike </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.361</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Hunter,Torii </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.489</td><td>0.363</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Morales,Kendry </td><td>0.287</td><td>0.336</td><td>0.485</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Kendrick,Howie </td><td>0.294</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.437</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Rivera,Juan </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.460</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Wood,Brandon </td><td>0.244</td><td>0.301</td><td>0.422</td><td>0.314</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Aybar,Erick </td><td>0.289</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.325</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <dl> <dt>Optimized Lineup with Izturis</dt> <dd><a href="http://e8t.3b8.cc">Expected Runs/Season: 854</a></dd> </dl> <table border="1" cellpadding="3"> <tbody style="text-align:left"> <tr><td># </td><td>Batter </td><td>AVG </td><td>OBP* </td><td>SLG </td><td>wOBA*</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Abreu,Bobby </td><td>0.283</td><td>0.378</td><td>0.436</td><td>0.365</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Matsui,Hideki </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.361</td><td>0.462</td><td>0.359</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Napoli,Mike </td><td>0.260</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.488</td><td>0.361</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Hunter,Torii </td><td>0.288</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.489</td><td>0.363</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Morales,Kendry </td><td>0.287</td><td>0.336</td><td>0.485</td><td>0.351</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Izturis,Maicer </td><td>0.285</td><td>0.351</td><td>0.411</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Rivera,Juan </td><td>0.281</td><td>0.330</td><td>0.460</td><td>0.340</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Kendrick,Howie </td><td>0.294</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.437</td><td>0.335</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Aybar,Erick </td><td>0.289</td><td>0.331</td><td>0.406</td><td>0.325</td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <p><a href="http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/2010-lineup-evalutions.html" style="font-size:1.5em">2010 Lineup Evaluations</a></p> </div> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/34998229-8884665866982084030?l=blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org' alt='' /></div> <p><a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/BEM2Wr1Q1vkgTzr1cIQ5M0y1cJc/0/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/BEM2Wr1Q1vkgTzr1cIQ5M0y1cJc/0/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a><br/> <a href="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/BEM2Wr1Q1vkgTzr1cIQ5M0y1cJc/1/da"><img src="http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/BEM2Wr1Q1vkgTzr1cIQ5M0y1cJc/1/di" border="0" ismap="true"></img></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/AyukawayensBlog/~4/Ka2Kgg3xDmA" height="1" width="1"/>Ayukawayenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17280411832903265801noreply@blogger.com0http://blog.ayukawayen.twbbs.org/2010/04/lineup-evaluation-2010-los-angeles_07.html