Ayumi the Novice Trader

Fixed Assets and Digital Assets

2021-05-05T17:53:00.002+08:00

This blog received 300+ visits last month.

Thanks to Google Analytics.

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My last post? October 2019.

I restructured my investment portfolio, I traded Gold sometime this year just for fun.

Got my dream job, deep learning curve there. But it has been an enjoyable ride.

I picked up accounting knowledge, i.e. Debit, Credit, General Ledger, Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet.. learn the end-to-end business processes, learn to read the annual report. There are still a lot to learn, I felt like a student everyday.

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So, Property.

And, Crypto.

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I cash out all fixed deposit, and non-performing stocks, putting my cash in Crypto.

They are my renovation fund, and I receive text from friends when Crypto made new ATH.

Thanks, BTC, LTC, ETH.
When I needed the cash, I imagine cashing out with extras, for food processor, glassware and silverware.

Would you consider Crypto?

Keeping cash in bank (doing nothing), expecting cash to drop in value vs peace of mind.

Keeping cash in other assets (or fixed assets), expecting volatility, risk / reward vs capital protection.

Long Gold 17-Oct-2019

2019-10-19T22:09:00.003+08:00

Received notice about inactivity charges, reactivated my City Index trading account. Few more steps to complete activation.

Opened a long position last Thursday/Friday.
Gold has moved towards my favorable position.
Moved stop loss to entry.

Long @ 1481.

SL 1481.

Limit 1502.

Limited Limitless

2018-01-31T15:59:00.000+08:00

We live in a world with limitations.

Limited patience, limited energy, limited time, limited phone memories (!).

But the limitation remind us to be creative, and caring.

<>

Learning limited patience, we put a stop to a heated discussion, we optimize the browsing speed, we cut nonsense.

Learning limited energy, we rest, we come back.

Learning limited time, we plan, we procrastinate, we act.

Learning limited phone memory, we free up space for the future.

<>

I am back to work.

I wanted to come back to technical analysis too.

Mails and Blogs

2017-09-02T11:43:00.000+08:00

I though I check my mails.
But when I login to AyumiTrader@gmail.com this morning, I noticed some familiar mails, but they were marked unread.
I noticed unread mails that's genuinely unread, from 2015.

Over the past 3 years, I joined a warehouse & distribution solution company, throw myself into learning the industry operations. I kept the blog idle for months but I am glad that the old faces still blogging and trading.

I channel my energy to writing and blogging about the things I learn, the exhibitions / trade shows I been, the training I provide to others in another blog but .. with my resignation I will end the blog soon.

https://wm6blog.wordpress.com/

What would you exchange for things you like?

2017-06-03T11:13:00.002+08:00

The title might sound misleading with what I am going to brag. It is all about me.

I like doing presentation.
I like thinking about solution, finding objectives and call a stop if things went south.
Sounds similar to a trading plan isn't it? Entry, Long / Short, TP and SL.

I stopped blogging here (yeah, proved by time) since I started working with an Automation Company in 2014. It took up a lot of memory muscle, to pick up topics I ever cared about. Some engineering stuff, some server hardware and licensing stuff.

I started a blog about the new things I learned here:
https://wm6blog.wordpress.com/
Why another blog?
That's how I keep myself moving - to make learning fun. On the topics I don't care.
I vent my opinion and learning with pen, color pencil, paper, highlighter, keyboard and a free wordpress.

In less than 3 years, I become the only person who could deliver a demo + tell our story (about the software) + explain IT architecture with my engaging style. I also give training on a quarterly basis and sometimes ad-hoc basis.
Stop bragging...

A good read has made me rethink my position.
http://www.mr-stingy.com/5-career-lessons-5-bosses/

Over 34 months with this company, I have 2 bosses, I could be assigned to a new boss next month.
Over a casual conversation with the senior colleagues, they hinted me a career path - it seemed too obvious that I can only move into a managerial role.

What had happened this week made me think A Lot.

I can do solution consultancy for another 5-10 years, i.e. finding solutions, setting objectives, selling ideas. I get excited and I am happy with what I do. Managing people is not my cup of tea.

In the past I choose to sacrifice things, in order to do what I like.
I don't mind allocating 20% of my time learning things I care less.
I don't mind allocating another 20% of my time picking up engineering stuff, provide training, arrange meetings, purchasing and negotiating.

Looking back to the past 34 months, I think I know why I stopped blogging. 40% of these activities has drained my energy to look at the financial market, to blog.

What if, I need to give up another 20% time and effort to managing people, strategy setting and/or office politics?

If the path is leading to wrong direction, I reckoned to do something to fix it.

Magnum (3859)

2017-05-23T11:25:00.001+08:00

My first post after so long, didn't know I would write about Malaysian stocks.

I acquired Magnum (3859) around April - July 2016.
It was making good returns and good dividend back then.

Magnum Berhad appear on the newspaper headline this morning (23-May-2017).
While I don't really monitor my portfolio on a daily basis, I login to my eBroking platform, just to check how much damage it caused. -17% loss.

Found the Announcement from this link: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/40330.jsp
Net profile fell by 56% YoY.
TP reduced from 2.35 to 1.70 (wow Public Bank! Your research could be one of the driving factor)
Read PublicInvest Research here: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/304001.jsp

From the news it seems that Magnum Berhad - as a company - have few challenges, e.g. tax penalty, competition, lower ticket sales, higher payout - which caused them to under-perform, miss earning target and causing disappointment to the retail traders. The announcement of "no dividend" hammered the market and the diving of share prices.

I do not hold much Magnum shares:
4,400 shares x RM2.25 average purchase price = RM9,893.84 gross investment;
4,400 shares x RM1.86 current market price = unrealized loss RM1709.84 (-17.28%).

In the event it fall to RM1.70 as PublicInvest:
4,400 shares x RM1.70 forecast = potential loss RM2,413 (-24%).

That could be the worst investment in a year.

Margin Changes

2016-04-15T07:36:00.001+08:00

With the recent decline in Gold.
FXCM mailed the new margin requirement for their CFD.
Gold being one of the instrument I trade, I have been waiting for the opportunity to long.
Entered long but got squeezed out when market test its support.

Update when there's new trade executed.

Regards
Bee Yen

Here's the announcement from FXCM:

Margin requirements on UKOil and USOil will be lowered after market close on 15 April, 2016. Please refer to the table below for the new margin requirements per minimum trade size. The lower margin requirements could free up equity in your account and allow for more flexibility with your trading decisions.

	USD	GBP	EUR	CHF
USOil	10.00	7.00	8.50	9.50
UKOil	10.50	7.50	9.00	10.00

	NZD	AUD	JPY	CAD
USOil	14.50	13.00	1083	13.00
USOil	15.50	14.00	1143	13.50

Additional margin changes will go into effect after market close on 29 April, 2016. These changes will impact CFD instruments including: indices, commodities, and treasury products. Please monitor your usable margin closely, making sure it stays above zero. We recommend a usable margin that’s at least 80% of your account equity (usable margin plus used margin).

Recognition

2015-11-08T23:40:00.000+08:00

Time flies.
It is November now.

I have been preparing myself, my students, kids and adults to take part in the competition 2 weeks ago.
I received the photos today, when I browse through the photo, I feel like they are happening live.

This time, I received 50 over pictures from 1 photographer.
There are more than 100 contestant, I couldn't imagine his numbness after the event.

Apart from staying focus and pressing the shutter on a camera, there are a lot of challenge taking dance competition stage photos... the changing lights, moving objects and unpredictable crowd.
This time, there are more than 5 photos that I like. Usually there's none.

I am a bit late to update the result, not because of overwhelming victory, but I learn the disheartening fact when our name (the contestant name) did not come up in the winners column.
But handling disappointment is important, it is more important than the winning.

Recognize that we gave our best, and we dance for a purpose.
We will learn from this event, and do our best again.

Teacher did a screen capture and post on her FB.
Photo below summarize a bit.

DJIA on 1-Jun-2015

2015-05-31T16:36:00.001+08:00

New month - June 2015

I was wrong last week. I forecast DJIA to go up until 2L Target 18,925 pts, but the same week DJIA shows weaknesses and closed 300 - 400 pts lower to 17,950 - 18,000 pts from its high 18,364 pts.

Overview:
Monthly Trend is still bullish with higher high and higher low
Weekly Chart showing weakness with a probable reversal signal created recent 3 weeks.
Daily Chart showing weakness since 20-May-2015 with lower high and lower lows.

DJIA break below EMA50 (4 hour chart) and stayed below.

I prefer DJIA to swing up to 18,330 pts early June.

With price suppressed below 18,100 pts without fundamental influence, I forecast DJIA to swing between 17,750 - 18,100 pts.
As long as DJIA stays above 17,750 pts - I would keep my slight bullish opinion towards the market.

Trading Interest:
Wait buying opportunities at 17,750 pts area for this week (1st week of June 2015).

What if...
Once DJIA break below 17,750 pts, next strong support is 17,550 pts, once this level is broken, it void my wave label and I shall review.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 19-May-2015

2015-05-19T12:42:00.000+08:00

Hi, here's a quick update.

Last week, DJIA continues the bullish sentiment and hit 1L inner wave WTP.
Check last week posting here.

DJIA on 11-May-2015

The sentiment likely to continue and 2L WTP is 18,925 pts.

If I am correct,
Labelling with Blue (up wave from 2015 low, took 2 months to form) and
Green (inner wave took a month to form)
Both suggesting DJIA to break above 18800 pts.

And I would look for Long trade aiming around these target.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 11-May-2015

2015-05-10T15:15:00.000+08:00

6 Months not blogging...
This is quite long.

I have traded on Gold and DJIA but didn't post my trade up here.

Finally I have time off, chosen to rest from my dance schedule.
Partly because of some aching and pain in the heels since April 2015.
Doctor said I have Plantar Fasciitism, prescribed some pain killers, advised me to wear supportive shoes, warm up my ankle in the morning, etc.

I was told by Google (haha, Google don't talk - but I think you get what I mean)
unless I get ultrasound - I may have 10% chance of the wrong diagnostic.

So, rest.

I spent the whole of last weekend completing my dance syllabus for 2015. Did many song editing.

This week, I have reactivated most of my trading app, some MT4 platform that failed to update, and now all are active.

Second reason, is I have free cash to trade again.

======

Thanks to Alex who texted me over May's NFP, and reminded me that I am not alone trading.

======

for the week starting 11-May-2015

DJIA

Since I have not been actively trading...
I removed all my previous waves labeling...

Monthly Chart

Re-look at the Monthly Chart - it is going up, up and up since 2009.

Weekly Chart
The Weekly Chart (below) - DJIA has not been making higher high for 2 months, take the high on 1st March 2015 as its Resistance = 18,280 pts.

Daily Chart
Last Friday, NFP boosted the DJIA, nice white candle up.

I see: higher low, and a recent high (18211 vs 18208 on 23-Mar-2015).
If market cannot break above the resistance 18,280 pts, I doubt the bullish sentiment.

Trying to find a way to trade, I forcefully label the wave structure as below...
p/s: "forcefully" means I may not be correct.

Label with Baby blue XAB (2 Months)
if Market were to break above resistance 18,280 pts,
1:1 wave target price will be 18,820 pts (540 pts to gain).

Innerwave Dark Green (1 Month)
BKO happened, 1L WTP @ 18300 pts, 2L WTP @ 18,925 pts.

Let's say the inner wave (Green) is bringing DJIA up to break above major resistance 18,280 pts, it is likely to reach 18,300 pts (easy) then 18,925 pts.

The above target will be my target exit if I am right.

My target entry, ideally could be the 50% fibo retracement level @ 17,950 pts (EMA50 in 4H)
SL @ 70 pts
TG @ 210 pts

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on Mon 3-Nov-2014

2014-11-03T07:41:00.003+08:00

DJIA

Has posted a strong weekly candle after the reversal confirmation.
My forecast was for it to retrace / sideways for 1 week, before hitting target.
However, I am wrong, DJIA shows its superbull and hit target, break resistance and close above resistance.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

base on Dow theory, DJIA is in a strong up trend - higher high - higher low.

Coming up next is to hit is main wtp 17630 (3L)
and if the strong bull continues,
inner wtp 18270 (6L)

4 Hour Chart

I do not have setup to enter a super bull market, candles are way above EMA50 and there might be no pull back... if there is a pull back: enter long at 16950 pts will be desirable.

Resistance:
18300 pts
17630 pts
17530 pts
Support
17200 pts
16950 pts
16630 pts

DJIA on 28-Oct-2014

2014-10-28T06:14:00.003+08:00

This week is very important because the FED will end the QE, at least this round..

Weekly Chart

I am happy because the weekly candle has just confirmed a possible reversal.
It closes above 16700, higher than the mid point of previous bearish candle.

Daily Chart
Daily chart turning positive, it has break above EMA200 and most of the moving averages are turning upward.

I wish for a bull but I am also concerned with the resistance around 16950 - 17000 levels.
Not too optimistic, but, If DJIA could break above 17000 then we might see 17200 soon (4L wtp).

This week should be a ranging week, with some potential to return to 16630 level (which is again my favourite setup).
If support 16,630 pts hold strong, DJIA can return to 16880 and retest its resistance 16950 - 17000 pts.

Once DJIA break above 17000, we shall see 17200 soon, may be another week.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 24-Oct-2014

2014-10-24T07:47:00.002+08:00

Daily Chart
Yeah, a white candle :D

4 Hour Chart
Hope for another positive - little range day.

I hope Dow could close above 16,800 pts to confirm reversal on weekly chart.
As forecast, Dow posted a white candle on daily chart yesterday, and hopefully the bull continue.

Strong Support near 16,530 - risk it or not, I might enter an impulsive long near 16,630 pts if market keep the sentiment high until Euro hours.

If failed, I would long at 16,530 pts again.
Target for the week at 16,780 pts.

ATR 275 pts, good range.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 23-Oct-2014

2014-10-23T08:38:00.002+08:00

Weekly Chart

I am looking forward to a sudden surge up this evening or Friday, to mark a white candle on weekly chart, in order to confirm the possible reversal since last week.

Daily Chart

Last night's candle is bearish.
Yeah luckily I short :)

It seems like EMA200 is currently a strong resistance to break.

4 Hour Chart

My favourite setup.
Very likely to enter long, SL at low.

Warming up~~~
hope I could enter Long for Dow soon, again.

Cheers
Ayumi

GBP/USD on 14-Aug-2014

2014-08-14T09:52:00.000+08:00

Again, we witnessed EMA50 in 4 hour chart...

Unfortunately I am in bed...
I recall the most frequent sentence:

what you do when you are right, and what action you take when you are wrong.

It matters so much.

Cheers
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

2014-08-11T00:50:00.001+08:00

for the week starting 11 Aug 2014

GBP/USD

Daily Chart bearish sentiment continues.
It has break two support level I quoted, and currently trading around 1.6770.

Dow theory - lower high, lower low.
find opportunity to short, final support at 1.6690.

Trading Plan
Initial Shadow
Short 1.6785
SL 20 pips
TG 60 pips

EUR/USD

slight bearish.
Trading at resistance level (4H chart).

I foresee market to trade sideways between 1.3340 - 1.3450.

Breaking above 1.3450 might turn EUR/USD from slight bearish to slight bullish sentiment.
Weekly Chart is suggesting a reversal pattern.

Regards
Ayumi

Transaction

2014-08-06T00:51:00.000+08:00

hm... this is an impulsive trade.
First trade on minor pair.

Base on 1 hour chart divergence.

GBP/JPY short.
Short at 173.32
SL 30 pips
TG 60 pips / close after 1 hour.

GBP/USD on 6-Aug-2014

2014-08-06T00:39:00.000+08:00

Market retest support level near 1.6810, rebounded.
from intraday chart, there's a XAB, hitting 2L.
Currently the 50% retracement has completed market could go up to 1.6930 level, but I hope market to trade sideways before hitting target 1.6930.

Trading Plan:
Pending Order to Long GBP/USD at 1.6830.
SL 1.6800 (30 or 40 pips)
TG 1.6930 (100 pips)

1.6930 is also the resistance in 4H chart (EMA50).

Cheers
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

2014-07-29T12:51:00.003+08:00

for the week starting 28-July-2014

EUR/USD
Selling pressure is high after EUR/USD break below 1.3475.

Weekly Chart

Market has break below support and Ayumi reckon selling pressure to lead EUR/USD to another low near blue line (1.3300 - 1.3350) in 2 months time (Sep-Oct 2014).

Daily Chart

bearish bearish bearish, with small Average True Range.
Immediate resistance 1.3500 - 1.3550.

Initiate Short if market failed to break and close above 1.3550.
Check 4 Hour Chart to confirm trading plan.

4 Hour Chart

4 Hour resistance at 1.3475, 25 pips higher.
Will update if any trade initiated.

GBP/USD

Interesting Market
Long term (until October 2014) bullish, target 1.7300.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Affected by strong US Dollar, GBP/USD daily chart is suggesting otherwise.
Bearish sentiment - short term sell.

Day Chart
Resistance 1: 1.7030
Support 1: 1.6920 - 1.6950
Support 2: 1.6850

Cheers
Ayumi

Catch Up

2014-07-23T17:37:00.001+08:00

Time slipped.

It has been almost 6 months I have not check in here.

And I missed many friends such as Soulfire, I missed AiShiang, I missed AlexSiew…

Over these 6 months, I have

March – Elena Ramazanova (from Russia) Hafla + Workshop

April – Turbo Tabla (from Korea, US / Egpyt) Hafla + Workshop

May – BDA (from Russia, Italy / Egypt) Competition + Teachers Training + Workshop

June – Sa’diyya (from USA) Hafla + Workshop

June – Dance Dance Dance 1.0 Intensive Training + Showcase

July – Dance Dance Dance 1.0 Intensive Training + Showcase

And I still missed Anusch (from Gulf) Workshop…

Coming up there will only be more workshops, training, competition, and more improvements.

My abs start to formed its shape and my arms are toned, just that they are not so feminine as I like them to be.

My body weight went from 52kg to 48kg while I build more muscles.

I hope my energy level, my metabolic rate, as well as my mind can cope with the future physical commitment.

I will do my level best to check out on Non-Farm Payroll for August, a lot of catch up to do...

I will make time for them this coming Muslim’s New Year.

Till then, wish me good luck this Sunday showcase.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

2014-02-10T13:58:00.004+08:00

for the week starting 10-Feb-2014

Another interesting week has passed.
DJIA has fallen drastically, went to a level too low below my previous forecast, but sustained above an important level which I will consider to change my view.

You will find this information at the comment.

I thank Yong for visiting my blog and leave his comments, that keep me aware and interested to know what's happening.

Rookie trader has started trading mini lot, he used to trade micro lot and unfortunately, he has seen his first loss during the market swing.
He didn't enter any stop loss, but he defined the take profit price.

I am strongly against this practice.. however, he made it to take $50 from the market, CL trade, 1 mini lot. I don't know why, but he seem to be more attracted to commodities, than equities index.

DJIA

The US gained 113,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate stands at 6.6% – little changed from the previous month. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report was expected to show a gain of around 185K in the first month of 2014 after an initial report about 74K for December. Even though significant revisions were expected, there were only 34K jobs added in November and December than previously reported. The unemployment rate was expected to stand at 6.7%, which isn’t far off the current rate of 6.6%.

Source: ForexCrunch

Last week DJIA broke below 15350, on my FXCM chart lowest is 15338 pts, slightly above the level which I consider changing my view from bullish to neutral (15200 - 15250 pts).

There are couple of bullish movement since Thursday and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart.

I suspect the market to continue the upward momentum early of this week to reach 16,000 pts.

But beware market might swing down to test 15,550 pts before returning to 16,000 pts.
Next target 16,450 pts.

Related Post:
Forecast 20-Jan-2014 (read comments)

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

2014-01-21T00:54:00.001+08:00

for the week starting 20 Jan 2014

DJIA has traded far beyond 2L on a weekly chart.
Inner wave has hit 4L with little exhaustion.

Inner wave 5L target 17350 pts, which is close to 3L target on the major upwave since 2012.

I am holding a bull view until end of Quarter 1, 2014 - as long as taper is going slow.

This week Support and Resistance Levels:
R2: 16570 pts
R1: 16530 pts
Current Support: 16430 pts
S1: 16370 pts
S2: 16315 pts

Nasdaq 100

Bullish on Nasdaq 100

Similar to Dow, 5L inner wave target sits on 3710 pts.
Another 120 pts away until end of Q1Y2014.

Nasdaq 100 is always volatile but I am keeping a bullish view, will only take action when I am actively watching the market.

R2: 3630 pts
R1: 3615 pts
Current Support: 3575 pts
S1: 3560 pts
S2: 3535 pts

Swap

2014-01-07T10:30:00.000+08:00

Was having this conversation with Rookie trader this morning.

What is a Swap?

I never pay attention to my Sifu when I started learning Forex, and actually, I never though I would be trading Forex... so the novice trader came to search for more information on Swap.

When I search for "Swap" at my broker (FXCM) website, I found
"Rollover" instead of swap.
I am not sure whether they mean the same thing.

I went to Forex Yard and search Swap
www.forexyard.com/en/glossary

Swap - A currency swap is the simultaneous sale and purchase of the same amount of a given currency at a forward exchange rate.

And honestly I also found a list of swap rate here...
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-broker-swaps/fxcm/44

Rookie Trader Open Position

2014-01-04T22:59:00.003+08:00

EUR/USD

Open Long 1.2900 x 0.01
P/L 68.59

Weekly: Bearish
Early week: sideways bias up
Current Resistance: 1.3620
TP: 1.3630 (Make $73)

If market continue down before it come up, set
SL at 1.3550 (Make $65)

EUR/CHF
Open Long 1.2060 x 0.01
P/L 26.62

Narrow Trading Range,
Hold
Great entry

Crude Oil
Open Short 110.0 x 0.01
P/L 157.40

Bearish
Hold
Support 1 92.00
Support 2 91.75
Support 3 91.25

Ayumi the Novice Trader

Fixed Assets and Digital Assets

Long Gold 17-Oct-2019

Limited Limitless

Mails and Blogs

What would you exchange for things you like?

Magnum (3859)

Margin Changes

USD

GBP

EUR

CHF

USOil

10.00

7.00

8.50

9.50

UKOil

10.50

7.50

9.00

10.00

NZD

AUD

JPY

CAD

USOil

14.50

13.00

1083

13.00

USOil

15.50

14.00

1143

13.50

Recognition

DJIA on 1-Jun-2015

DJIA on 19-May-2015

DJIA on 11-May-2015

DJIA on Mon 3-Nov-2014

DJIA on 28-Oct-2014

DJIA on 24-Oct-2014

DJIA on 23-Oct-2014

GBP/USD on 14-Aug-2014

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Transaction

GBP/USD on 6-Aug-2014

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Catch Up

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Swap

Rookie Trader Open Position