usa-mortgage -- IT Helpdesk, Mortgage Blogger

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : December 1, 2008

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:45:00 -0700

Government action fueled a mortgage market rally last week, leading mortgage rates lower for the second consecutive week.

Despite soft housing numbers and evidence of a slowing economy, mortgage rate shoppers found reason to celebrate:

Citigroup was "rescued"
Wall Street liked the new economic team
The government pledged $600 billion to buy investment-grade mortgage bonds

These 3 elements helped drive mortgage rates to their lowest levels since January 2008 -- in some cases shaving a full percentage point off the offered rate.

Homeowners responded to the dip and refinance activity reached "a frenzy". As evidence, at least one national mortgage bank reported more loans were locked on Tuesday, November 25 than for the first 24 days of the month combined. Anecdotally, other lenders saw similar action.

However, low rates rarely stick around.

The last time that rates like they did last week, markets recovered within a week and rates returned to "normal". This week provides ample chance for that to happen again.

Throughout the early part of the week, 5 members of the Fed will make public appearances, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. With the Fed's next meeting scheduled for December 15, markets will be looking for clues about how the Fed may change the Fed Funds Rate.

When the Fed Funds Rate falls, mortgage rates tend to rise on the news.

Then, on Thursday, retailers start announcing their "same store" sales figures for November. This will clue us in to the true health of the economy because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of it. If same-store sales are dramatically lower, expect calls for a large Fed Funds Rate cut.

And lastly, Friday brings us the jobs report. As terrible as the employment reports have been this year, it will take an especially higher number of jobs lost in November, or an exceedingly high Unemployment Rate to have much of an impact on mortgage rates.

This month, weak jobs data should be harmful to mortgage rates because more out-of-work Americans may lead to more mortgage defaults nationwide, plus additional Fed Funds Rate cuts.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

"Franksgiving" And Other Black Friday Facts

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 06:29:00 -0700

The day after Thanksgiving is a busy shopping day nationwide and, this year, analysts are paying extra attention to sales figures.

Dubbed "Black Friday" in reference to red ink representing loss and black ink representing gain, today's start to the Holiday Shopping season is believed to be the day that retailer balance sheets finally cross over to profitability.

But the accounting connotation of the phrase "Black Friday" wasn't its original usage -- it's a media-coined term.

When the phrase was first used in Philadelphia in 1975, it was in reference to the day after Thanksgiving being the busiest shopping and traffic day of the year.

There's other Black Friday trivia out there, too:

Did you know? Black Friday is neither the largest, nor the most profitable, shopping day of the year. Contrary to popular wisdom, it's the 5th biggest, not the first. The two weekends before Christmas are usually the "biggest" series of days.

Did you know? In an attempt to spur the economy in 1939, President Franklin D. Roosevelt proposed to move Thanksgiving ahead by 7 days. 7 more days of shopping, he thought, would help retailers and help the economy. Eventually, the idea dubbed "Franksgiving" failed.

Did you know? To protect competitors from price matching "deals", some retailers copyright their Black Friday advertising. Others won't print prices at all.

Did you know? Last year, 14 percent of Black Friday shoppers had made a purchase prior to 4:00 A.M. with an average ticket of $347.

Black Friday is of special significance this year because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If Americans are shopping in full force, expect economic optimism and a mild rebound in the stock market. Unfortunately for home buyers, this should also lead mortgage rates higher.

By contrast, if sales figures are weak, expect talk of recession to grow.

Sources
Black Friday (Shopping)
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_%28shopping%29

Geek Trivia: Early bird special
Tech Republic
Jay Garmon, Nov 22, 2005
http://articles.techrepublic.com.com/5100-10878_11-5958978.html

(Image courtesy: Give Congress Back)

Mortgage Rates Fell But Be Careful Of History Repeating Itself

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 09:09:14 -0700

Like everything else on Wall Street, mortgage markets are based on supply and demand. When demand outweighs supply, mortgage rates fall.

So, Tuesday, when the government unexpectedly announced a $500 billion budget for buying mortgage debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the demand side of the mortgage market ballooned.

The surprise demand helped push mortgage rates to their lowest levels since January 22, 2008. 30-year fixed mortgage rates were down by as much as three-quarters of a percent Tuesday before retreating higher.

Not coincidentally, January 22, 2008, was the date of another unexpected government intervention -- a surprise 0.750 percent Fed Funds Rate cut that was meant to spur the economy forward.

Interventions like these are a big reason why predicting mortgage rates is tough business -- just when you discover the market's balance point, an outside force shifts that balance, creating tremendous amounts of uncertainty about the future.

Uncertainty on Wall Street is typically bad for mortgage rate shoppers because it leads to high levels of volatility. Look at the trading pattern from Market Open to Market Close yesterday:

8:30 AM ET: Markets open with rates falling on the news
10:00 AM ET : Rates fall more on momentum trading
12:00 PM ET : Rates level at their lowest levels of the day
2:00 PM ET : Rates rise as profit-taking begins
3:30 PM ET : Rates rise more on momentum trading
4:00 PM ET : Markets close with rates down by half

Again, not coincidentally, this is the exact trading pattern from January 22, 2008. On that day, rates were at their lowest about 3 hours into trading, and then consistently rose all the way into Market Close -- just like we saw Tuesday.

Unfortunately, in the 30 days that followed January 22, mortgage rates rose from a 3-year low to a 3-year high. And, it's not to say that the same thing will happen from now through December 25, but trading patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves over time.

Mortgage markets seek balance and when there's a dramatic shift, chaos can creates opportunity. Tuesday's $500 billion pledge added new demand and shocked the mortgage market system. Before long, it recovered to find balance.

As of today, mortgage rates are still hovering near their 3-year lows so if you haven't spoken to your loan officer about a refinance, consider calling today.

Existing Home Sales Are Relatively Unchanged Going On 14 Months Now

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 09:12:06 -0700

In real estate, the term existing home refers to a "used" property; one that can't be classified as new construction.

The number of existing homes sold each month is tracked by the National Association of REALTORS. The report is often used as a gauge for the health of the real estate market nationwide.

In October, nearly 5 million existing homes sold across the U.S. This figure represents a slight drop from September's reading, and a equally slight drop from the October 2007 data.

But, October's Existing Home Sales figures marked the 14th straight month in which Existing Home Sales straddled 5-million units. This is a remarkable statistic because 14 months of anything is a pattern, not a blip. Despite what the news tells us, Americans are buying and selling real estate at a somewhat steady clip.

As we head into the Holiday Season, buyer activity should slow, reducing demand for homes. At the same time, however, widespread foreclosure moratoriums should reduce the number of homes available to buy. These forces should counter-act to help keep the market (and prices) in balance.

(Image courtesy: USA Today)

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : November 24, 2008

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 08:45:00 -0700

As the stock market retraced to its 1997 level, mortgage markets improved last week -- but not by much.

Mortgage rates closed out the week slightly lower, but the week wasn't without fireworks.

Calls of deflation grew louder
The automakers left Washington without a bailout
Citigroup's stock price fell to the equivalent of its ATM fee

Separately, each of these elements would have created confusion on Wall Street. Together, they created near chaos. Stocks traded at a pace last week that has never been equaled.

As a result, mortgage rates were volatile, too.

Over the 5-day workweek, multiple mortgage lenders issued 11 distinct rate sheets, meaning that consumer mortgage rates changed every 3 hours, 38 minutes on average last week.

This is why home buyers should rate shop quickly. Wait too long and the mortgage rate is gone. And this week doesn't figure to be any less volatile.

To start, it's a holiday-shortened week. Fewer traders will be working as the week moves forward, making the Price Discovery process more difficult. With fewer active buyers and sellers, wild price swings are likely and mortgage rates should feel the impact.

Next, markets will debate the Citigroup Bailout, wondering whether this will (finally) mark the market bottom. It's a conversation about which Wall Street never tires and with each bit of optimism, money should flow into stocks to the detriment of mortgage bonds and mortgage rates.

And lastly, there are 9 economic releases crammed into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week, including two housing reports and an inflationary gauge behind which the Fed puts a lot of credence.

Signs of stabilization should buoy both stock markets and mortgage rates -- Wall Street is craving balance of some sort to carry it into the New Year.

There are no Fed speakers scheduled for this week so watch for data and market sentiment to lead the markets. For rate shoppers, this means more rate sheets.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Deflation And What It Means To Americans

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:17:00 -0700

Business television and newspapers have made deflation a hot topic this week and, since Monday, Google has tracked 13,000 mentions of it.

Deflation is a recurring cycle in which the prices of goods and services fall. Isolated to one industry or sector, falling prices is the natural result of competition.

For example, when DVD players were first introduced, they were tagged at $800.

Today, you can buy them for less than $20.

Across many industries, however, and happening at the same time, falling prices can shut down the economy. Rather than buy things on the cheap, people stop buying anything at all. And why would they? The same items will cost less tomorrow.

And this is the problem with deflation -- it halts consumer spending and consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When it stops, the economic result is dwindling corporate revenues which leads to:

Layoffs of the workforce, which leads to...
Less consumer spending, which leads to...
Dwindling corporate revenues, which leads to...

And the spiral continues.

Deflation can be much more insidious that its expansionary counterpart -- inflation. Inflation is when the prices generally rise over time and it's an economic condition through which governments can comfortably navigate. Deflation, on the other hand, is more rare and, therefore, fewer practical control measures exist.

Whether the U.S. economy will slip into deflation is a matter of debate.

The Fed has cut the Fed Funds Rate to promote economic growth and those changes can take up to 12 months to work their way through the economy. Deflationary pressures we're seeing today, in other words, may have already been addressed and corrected by Ben Bernanke's 10 rate cuts in the last 14 months.

Until the market figures it out, though, expect that each mention of deflation will hurt the stock market and help the bond market -- including the mortgage-backed variety. This should help lower mortgage rates and make homes more affordable.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Plunging Housing Starts Is Bad News For Spring 2009 Home Buyers

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 08:52:00 -0700

When it comes to housing data, there are always two questions to consider:

How does this impact buyers?
How does this impact sellers?

This is why housing data is rarely positive or negative on a universal level -- one group of Americans is going to see benefit.

Today, it's home sellers.

From the government, we learn that Housing Starts fell to their lowest levels since 1947 last month. A "Housing Start" is a new housing unit on which construction has started. Building permits are down, too.

This is all good news for people selling their homes in the coming months. As fewer homes are built nationwide, there is less inventory from which home buyers can choose. With fewer homes for sale shifts the supply-and-demand curve, adding a stronger support floor to home prices.

For home buyers, though, the Housing Starts data may not be as welcome.

With fewer new homes coming on the market, owners of "used" homes may feel less pressure to lower asking prices or to make other concessions. Home buyers often pay more when home supply is falling, or find that sellers are less willing to add "throw-ins" to a contract.

For all of the analysis that surrounds real estate data, in the end, home prices are based on the supply of homes versus the demand for homes. When supply outpaces demand, home prices fall, and vice verse.

Homebuilders know this and October's Housing Starts data reflects it.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Mortgage Rates Buck Conventional Wisdom And Rise Despite The Plunging Cost Of Living Index

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:30:00 -0700

If the presence of inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, then the absence of inflation should cause mortgage rates to fall. And, in most markets that's true.

Today, it's not.

Despite a deep, month-over-month dip in consumer prices not seen since 1947, mortgage rates are inching higher this morning.

The main reason why rates are rising today is that the Cost of Living didn't just ease last month -- it plunged.

In fact, the monthly drop was so severe that Wall Street now questions whether this summer's record-breaking inflation will lead to equally-strong deflation this winter.

In economic terms, deflation is the opposite of inflation -- it's when prices and wages chase each other lower. The two can be equally bad for the economy. What's often best for Americans are moderate, steady readings.

Because of the rapid decline, markets fear that Consumer Prices may have swung way past moderate in October and started a downward spiral. As always, however, market opinions can change quickly and when they do, they usually take mortgage rates with them.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

The 2009 FHA Loan Limits For Every U.S. County

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:17:00 -0700

In March 2008, HUD temporarily raised FHA loan limits around the country. Effective January 1, 2009, FHA loan limits revert.

FHA home loans are mortgages made by private lenders and insured by the federal government.

Historically, FHA home loans have been "easier" for which to qualify than their conforming mortgage counterparts and, therefore, tend to be associated with borrowers of tarnished credit quality.

Today, that's the not the case.

The FHA home loan underwriting process can be as tough -- or tougher -- than a conforming mortgage underwrite. There is extra documentation required and the home appraisal process is often more thorough.

Where FHA home loans shine is in their limited downpayment requirements.

To purchase a home with a FHA-insured mortgage requires a 3 percent downpayment as of today; in January, it moves to 3.5 percent. Versus the typical conforming mortgage requirement of 5 percent or more, FHA serves as somewhat of a home affordability product for Americans. In addition, FHA allows larger "cash out" refinances than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

The 2009 FHA loan limits (in most areas of the country) are:

1-unit : $271,050
2-unit : $347,000
3-unit : $419,400
4-unit : $521,250

Note that the loan limits don't apply to all areas of the country equally. Higher-cost regions feature higher loan limits, based on typical home values. Homes in Los Angeles County, for example, can be FHA-insured up to $625,500 in 2009, and there are exceptions made for Alaska and Hawaii.

The official FHA announcement published all of the counties with access to higher loan limits, spread across two spreadsheets. The first spreadsheet lists each county at the $625,500 maximum; the second list is everyone else.

If your home county is on neither list, use the "base" numbers above.

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : November 17, 2008

Mon, 17 Nov 2008 08:14:00 -0700

In another week of up-and-down trading, mortgage rates ended the week slightly higher last week.

Ping-pong action like this has defined mortgage markets lately. It's increasingly common for rates to soar one day, and then come crashing down the next.

In response to market volatility, mortgage lenders issued as many as 8 distinct rate sheets in a holiday-shortened, 4-day trading week. Lately, shopping for a low mortgage rate has been as much about timing as anything else.

There wasn't much economic news to digest last week save for Friday's Retail Sales data.

The numbers reflected what most of us already know -- consumers are not spending as freely as in the past. And, because consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, retail restraint can mean the difference between a growing economy and a slowing one.

October marked the 5th straight month of declines for Retail Sales.

This week, markets will have their hands full with new data, 7 Fed speakers, and ongoing rescue effort discussions from Washington.

From a data perspective, the two most important data points are the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index. Both measure the "cost of living" as it applies to businesses and consumers, respectively, and both can signal inflation when the readings are too high.

Falling energy prices will likely cause PPI and CPI to post negative readings, but if those negative numbers post higher than expected, mortgage rates should rise in response.

Regardless, mortgage rate shoppers should standby in Ready Mode. Changes to the mortgage market -- like changes to the stock market -- have been furious and swift, measurable in minutes, not hours. The only way to beat a market like this is to not play in it.

Once you find a rate-and-payment combination that suits your household budget, consider locking it in with your loan officer. The risk of not committing can be too great in a market moving as quickly as this one.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

How The New Good Faith Estimate Form Can Help You Save Money On Your Mortgage

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:45:00 -0700

To help demystify the mortgage process, the federal government is giving the much-maligned Good Faith Estimate document a makeover. Effective January 1, 2010, the current, 2-page form will be replaced by a new, easier-to-understand version, spanning 3 pages.

The biggest strength of the new Good Faith Estimate is that it uses everyday English to explain how the mortgage works. For example, in one section titled "Loan Summary", the Good Faith Estimate specifically answers:

What is your interest rate?
Can your interest rate rise?
Does your loan have a prepayment penalty?

Using today's disclosures, the answers are spread across 3 separate forms.

In addition, the new-look Good Faith Estimate identifies what charges are legally allowed change at the time of settlement, and how a mortgage applicant can opt for higher fees in exchange for a lower mortgage rate, and vice versa.

These educational elements are lacking from the current model.

But for all of its clarity, the Good Faith Estimate doesn't address the issue of suitability. As in, is this the right loan for the right borrower? The new Good Faith Estimate won't prevent homeowners from choosing "bad loans" -- it will only educate them about the loan's facts.

For suitable advice -- as always -- talk with a trusted mortgage professional who will both listen to your needs and help you make plans for them. Getting the "best terms" on an unsuitable loan can be far worse that getting great terms on a loan that fits.

4 States Account For 51 Percent Of The Nation's October 2008 Foreclosures

Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:12:00 -0700

Foreclosure is a hot topic among the press lately. It's hard to turn on the television or open up a newspaper without seeing a story about it.

But what's most interesting about foreclosures is that they appear to be concentrated in certain areas of the country.

According to the foreclosure-tracking service RealtyTrac, 4 states accounted for more than half of nation's foreclosures last month.

And those 4 states -- California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada -- share some very similar characteristics including:

Their respective popularity with retirees and real estate investors
Their large home value increases earlier this decade

In looking at the rest of the country's foreclosure data, the remaining 46 states combined accounted for just 48.8 percent of October's foreclosures.

That's 1.06% per state on average.

Now, this isn't meant to diminish the impact of foreclosures on the economy -- quite the opposite. Foreclosures harm to the national housing market because most mortgage lenders are national. But, we highlight statistics like this to show that the foreclosure "problem" isn't so bad in most parts of the country, relative.

Furthermore, mortgage lenders are intervening to slow the flow of defaults nationwide. Following the lead of JP Morgan and Bank of America, CitiMortgage just announced a sweeping plan to help homeowners avoid default and keep their homes.

In a way, for as good as this news is for homeowners, it's equally bad news for home buyers. As the number of foreclosures decrease in any given market, it reduces the inventory of homes for sale. Lower supply levels often lead to higher sale prices and less room to negotiate. And this may be what the banks are trying to accomplish.

How Big Can A Mortgage Be And Not Be Considered "Jumbo"?

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 08:05:00 -0700

For the 4th consecutive year, the government has set the conforming mortgage loan size limit at $417,000.

A conforming mortgage is one that, quite literally, conforms to the mortgage guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

The 2009 conforming loan limits, as released by the government, are:

1-unit properties : $417,000
2-unit properties : $533,850
3-unit properties : $645,300
4-unit properties : $801,950

Loans in excess of conforming loan limits are more commonly called "jumbo", or "super jumbo" home loans, depending on their size.

Out-sized mortgages like these are often more costly than their conforming-mortgage counterparts because jumbo loans are not guaranteed by the U.S. government like Fannie Mae loans are.

There are loan limit exceptions, however.

Left over from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, specific, "high-cost" areas around the country have their own conforming loan limits, not to exceed $625,500. There are 59 designated high-cost regions in the U.S., most of which are in California.

Loan limits are re-assigned each year, based on "typical" housing costs around the country. Since 1980, as home prices have increased, so have conforming loan limits. As home prices have fallen in recent years nationwide, however, the conforming loan limit has not.

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : November 10, 2008

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 08:45:00 -0700

Mortgage rates fell last week, marking just the second time since September that rates improved on a weekly basis.

The biggest news of the week was the U.S. Presidential Election. Markets appeared to cheer the Republican-to-Democrat transfer of power, posting large gains Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This in spite of a spate of negative economic news:

Auto makers are bleeding cash
Jobless claims at a 25-year high
Retail sales appear to be stalling

Instead, mortgage markets shrugged it off.

The general consensus among traders last week was that the Democratic White House will make every effort to ignite the economy and, if those efforts fail, it will try again. This bodes well for businesses and for the banking system and is one reason why mortgage rates dropped post-election.

This week, without much new data, markets should move on corporate earnings and momentum. It's been a while since corporate earnings meant so much to mortgage rates.

U.S. businesses are the backbone of the economy, spending money on goods and services and employing 144 million Americans. When business is strong, more workers get hired who then, in turn, spend their money and force the hiring of even more workers.

It's a self-reinforcing cycle so if retailers post better-than-expected numbers this week, expect stock markets to gain favor worldwide as investors chase returns. This will money to pull out from bond markets of all kinds -- including mortgage-backed bonds.

Less demand for bonds causes mortgage rates to rise.

Also, look at Friday as a volatile trading day. Not only will October's Retail Sales figures be announced, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is sharing the stage with his European Central Bank counterpart, talking about monetary policy.

Word choice is a delicate matter on Wall Street so if Bernanke's comments are viewed as too anti-inflation, or too pro-inflation, expect for mortgage rates to move by a lot. If you're shopping for a mortgage right now, consider locking before Bernanke's 9:00 AM speech.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

Weak Employment Data May Boost The Affordability Of Homes

Fri, 07 Nov 2008 10:07:06 -0700

On the first Friday of every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. More commonly, it's called the "jobs report" and the October's data is trending with the rest of 2008.

After shedding another 240,000 jobs last month, the economy has now put 1.2 million Americans out of work this year and unemployment rates have climbed to 14-year highs.

As a strange twist, though, today's weak jobs data may lead to a positive turn for the economy and for housing in 2009.

In the wake of the jobs report, members of Congress are already calling for both tax cuts and direct stimulus to reverse the course of the economy. Both of these actions would put money back into U.S. citizens' household budgets, spurring consumer spending nationwide.

Because consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy, this would be expected to push the economy forward at a time when it natural forces are slowing it down.

In addition, markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut the Fed Funds Rate below its current 1.000 percent level. This, too, would spur spending because the Fed Funds Rate is directly tied to consumer credit card rates and business credit lines.

Expectations for stimulus are one reason why mortgage rates have not risen today as high as they otherwise would have if this were a "normal" market.

Mortgage rates are slightly elevated as we head into the weekend, but don't be surprised if there's a late-afternoon push that brings them lower. For active home buyers, this could help home affordability as we cruise towards the holiday season.

(Image courtesy: USA Today)

As LIBOR Falls, Homeowners With Adjusting ARMs Get Lower Rates

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 08:27:00 -0700

The interest rate against which adjustable-rate mortgages change is falling -- evidence that the global banking system is starting to stabilize.

On any adjustable-rate mortgage, the initial "starter rate" remains fixed for some period of time, and then adjusts according to some pre-determined rules.

For a conforming mortgage, an ARM will typically adjust once per year, based on this formula:

(Adjusted Rate) = (Variable) + (Constant)

Where the variable is often assigned to 12-month LIBOR, and the constant is often fixed at 2.250 percent.

LIBOR is the equation's variable. Therefore, it's of paramount import to holders of ARMs. LIBOR is the rate at which banks lend money to each other. The 12-month LIBOR, therefore, is the borrowing rate for a 1-year, interbank loan.

So, to take the formula and apply to an real live mortgage, a homeowner's adjusted mortgage rate would be equal to whatever the 12-month LIBOR is at the time of adjustment, plus another 2.250 percent.

Looking at the chart, note LIBOR spiked in September. It's a direct correlation to the September 15 failure of Lehman Brothers. That bank shutdown started a wave of "who's going to be next?" anxiety on Wall Street but as global governments stepped up support for banks, LIBOR predictably fell.

For homeowners with adjusting mortgages, this is terrific news.

However, mortgage markets have rallied a bit this week, created an interesting opportunity for some holders of ARMs. Depending on credit scores and the amount of home equity, mortgage rates on a new loan may be lower that the soon-to-be-adjusted mortgage rate of the old one.

In other words, getting a new loan may be smarter than letting your current mortgage change. Contact your mortgage lender to see which plan fits you best.

Planning To Buy A Home In 2009? Expect A Tougher Mortgage Road Ahead.

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 08:45:00 -0700

The Federal Reserve confirmed what most of us already knew -- getting qualified for a "prime mortgage" is increasingly more difficult.

In a quarterly survey of 84 banks, 75 percent of respondent banks tightened mortgage guidelines over the last 3 months for the most qualified of home loan applicants.

"Prime" is a vague term when it comes to mortgages, but, historically, a prime borrower is one that can document:

A well-documented credit history
Very high credit scores
Very low debt-to-incomes

Historically, banks bent over backwards to lend money to this class of borrower. Today, they're thinking twice.

The chart's steep ascent reinforces that members of all tax brackets face consequences from the current credit market turmoil. And, although some corners of credit looked poised to recover -- interbank lending, for one -- the mortgage market is yet unaffected and should be among the last to thaw.

All prospective home buyers should prepare for the likelihood that mortgage guidelines continue to toughen before they start to ease. Mortgage applicants on the cusp of being approved today will almost certainly be turned down for a mortgage in 2009.

Owning real estate can require a tremendous amount of advance planning and, sometimes, looking at the past is the best way to prepare for what's coming ahead.

According to the Federal Reserve's survey, what's coming ahead is more mortgage application scrutiny.

How The Presidential Election May Impact Mortgage Rates

Tue, 04 Nov 2008 08:45:00 -0700

More than a handful would-be home buyers stayed on the sidelines this year, waiting for Election Day to pass.

The prevailing thought was that once the new President-Elect was identified, credit markets will systemically unfreeze and housing markets will return to normal.

If history is a guide, this is an unlikely scenario.

Election Day doesn't figure to alter markets any more in 2008 than it did after the four previous presidential elections.

If anything, post-Election Day market reaction has been muted:

1992 : Dow closes down 0.9 percent the day after Election Day
1996 : Dow closes up 1.6 percent the day after Election Day
2000 : Dow closes down 0.4 percent the day after Election Day
2004 : Dow closes up 1.0 percent the day after Election Day

But just because the stock market has a history of idling on the day after the election doesn't mean that mortgage rates will rest easy this week. The likely outcome is the opposite, actually.

If investors believe the President-elect will successfully stimulate the economy, stock markets would likely rally, causing mortgage bonds to sell off and mortgage rates to rise.

Or, if investors think the winning candidate will fail to revive the economy, money would flock to government bonds as a place of safety. This dollar flow would occur at the expense of the mortgage market, causing rates to rise in this scenario, too.

Of course, it's as difficult to predict post-Election market conditions as it is to predict the election itself but one thing is for certain -- rates may rise and fall before the week is out, but credit guidelines will remain extra-tight. Getting approved for a mortgage won't be any easier -- no matter which party wins the Presidential Election.

Source
Will the election drive the Dow?
Eamon Javers
Politico
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081022/pl_politico/14826

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : November 3, 2008

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 08:45:00 -0700

As global credit markets deteriorated in October, mortgage markets displayed an unnerving amount of volatility.

Last week was no different.

But, unlike in previous weeks in which rates improved on some days and worsened on others, mortgage rates were mostly higher last week, finishing the month on a surge.

The biggest reason why mortgage rates rose last week is that hedge funds and other investors are still hard-pressed for cash and are dumping their mortgage-backed bond portfolios into the market. The excess mortgage bond supply drove prices lower last week, which, in turn, caused rates to rise.

However, forced selling by hedge funds wasn't the only force working against mortgage rate shoppers last week.

In a move meant to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds Rate to 1.000 percent -- the same level widely attributed to starting the global credit crisis several years ago. Low interest rates may stimulate the economy in the short-term, but long-term, they can lead to runaway inflation.

This is terrible for home buyers because inflation causes mortgage rates to rise.

Looking ahead to this week, mortgage markets have a lot of information to digest.

First, there will be four separate speeches from members of the Federal Reserve, plus one appearance by Treasury Secretary Paulson. In each speech, each mention of the word "inflation" will cause mortgage markets to flinch and rates to tick higher.

In addition, Friday is the first Friday of the month which means that the Employment Report hits the wires.

Because markets expect to see high unemployment rates, they're also predicting a slow holiday shopping season. If the jobs data is stronger-than-expected, expect stock markets to gain and mortgage markets to lose, pushing rates higher.

And, lastly, Tuesday is Election Day. Presumably, markets already priced in the likelihood of either candidate winning the election. However, as the voter's President-elect becomes clearer throughout the day, expect volatility in rates as traders rush to change their positions.

Mortgage markets should move lot Tuesday -- we just won't know in which direction until it happens.

(Images courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

Why Mortgage Rates Haven't Fallen As Expected

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 08:40:00 -0700

When the government nationalized mortgage lending in September, housing analysts predicted lower mortgage rates.

For a brief two-week stint, they were right -- post-takeover, the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage fell below 6.000 percent nationally for the first time in 7 months.

Since then, however, mortgage markets have reversed. Rates are now at pre-takeover levels.

Now, this isn't to say that the nationalization was a failure -- far from it. The government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accomplished two very important goals:

It restored failing confidence in the U.S. mortgage markets
It opened legislative channels for faster, more relevant housing reform

And, long-term, most people agree, these are essential elements for a U.S. economic recovery. Over the short-term, however, the plan has not delivered the sustained low mortgage rate environment that was envisioned.

The biggest reason why rates are higher is because of Wall Street's manic trading behavior. When the economic outlook shows hints of sun, investors sprint to risky stock markets; when it shows signs of gloom, they flee in favor of ultra-safe treasuries. The buy-sell patterns have led to some of the wildest trading days on record and it's not what the Treasury expected.

See, when the takeover was first announced, mortgage-backed bonds were elevated to "government status". This created new demand for mortgage bonds which helped to push down rates. But, in the weeks that followed, the world's credit markets unraveled and traders sought the dual comfort of safety and liquidity in their portfolios.

That's a combination that only U.S. treasuries can provide. Versus "true" government bonds, mortgage-backed securities are just quasi.

We can't know where mortgage rates will move for certain but, for now at least, the 4 percent range some had predicted is out of reach. Until credit order is restored globally, expect volatility to continue and rates to remain up.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)