Baily's Sports & Stuff

Why I love this game so much...and how it's led me to winning big in Vegas

2024-02-10T11:22:00.000-08:00

I'll try to keep this short - the NFL experience is calling my name. There are field goals to be kicked, mock broadcasts with ex-NFL quarterbacks for me to get to, NFL facts to memorize, and revenge on my mother, to be had. She beat me in the QB target competition yesterday, although all 3 of mine were inches away and she just happened to hit one of them even with terrible form, so I'm not too pressed about it or emasculated by it.

I write this post short walk away from Allegiant Stadium, home of Super Bowl 58. I've spent my week immersing myself in the history of this beautiful game, getting more juiced than ever for my 19th Super Bowl (that I've watched live).

After many many many hours of a Wikipedia / NFL Throwback / Sporcle diet when I was supposed to be at work (and many more instances of this throughout childhood / adulthood), I think I can name every Super Bowl score, location, first play safety against the Broncos, MVP, power outage, quarterback, nip slip, coach, and postgame Gisele rant. Still working on nailing down all the touchdowns.

What I have loved this week has been reflecting on Super Bowls of past - and what they meant to me. I put together a little presentation for my girlfriend explaining to me why I love this game so much, and how etched in my brain it's become. Some may want to skim this part.

The first time I got interested in football was September 6, 2005. My dad had just gotten back from a work trip and left an Athlon Sports magazine at my door. I read it cover to cover, hyped to cheer on his favorite team, the Denver Broncos, in Week 1 4 days later. They lost to Miami 34-10. I went back to memorizing classical composers and freeways for a bit.

But Denver came back around that season, slithering past TB12 and into the AFC Championship Game with Jake "The Snake" Plummer. I was intrigued by Super Bowl 40, although probably frustrated by an absurd amount of missed calls. The 2006 season had its moments for me too - Peyton outdueling Brady in the AFC Championship Game and Jim Nantz's perfect call of Devin Hester's opening kickoff return in Super Bowl 41. But it was 2007 when it all changed.

My dad told me he was entering a fantasy football league midseason. It was a 37-team auction style league. Every team got $300, with players priced accordingly. There were 9 weeks. Top total score won. Winner got tickets to the Pro Bowl in Honululu - which mattered at the time.

I got an explanation of how our odds to win the league were less than 3%. I didn't care. I wanted some really big rings. I still remember one move where we were able to swap Carson Palmer and Marques Colston for Peyton Manning and Roddy White in our lineup, with Palmer proceeding to score negative points that week.

Week 17 came around, and in spite of one of the worst drops I've ever seen by Kellen Winslow, we were firmly in the lead. I dreamed that we lost the league after Sunday night. We hadn't. Whoever it was followed up on the offer. My dad said he almost took his high school best friend instead of the Billy Beane of a team that was likely named "Kickin SaaS". Luckily, he ended up taking me.

I got back to second grade after winter break and dominated the "what did you do over break" conversation - my second grade teacher was a huge Pats fan. With the anticipation of a Hawaiian excursion fresh on my mind, I got to enjoy the rest of the NFL playoffs - including Super Bowl 42. For the first time, we hosted a Super Bowl party and made it fun, and it happened to line up with the greatest Super Bowl ever (arguably). While I could have made $200 on squares if the final score was Pats 14, Giants 10, I didn't hate watching Eli's helmet catch heroics. Winning big on the craps table last night, thanks to my dad's hot hand, made up for it.

The next week, I got to meet Brandon Jacobs and Amani Toomer, key pieces in New York's run. I went to an event where every NFL team had their own city-themed booths - Cuban food for the Dolphins, Edgar Allen Poe for the Ravens, probably E-40 for the Niners. My dad doesn't remember. I'll never forget.

From there, my love for the game was sealed. We had many more Super Bowl parties, watching the Tampa toe tap, the Porter pick, the Rodgers renaissance, and the Manning(ham) Miracle in Super Bowls 43-46. Super Bowls 47-48 brought sadness (yes, I am a Niners and Broncos fan). Super Bowl 49 was inexplicable. We went to Super Bowl 50 and cheered on our beloved Broncos at Levi's Stadium.

The energy has been there for the last few Super Bowls, but it's different this time. My beloved Niners have made it back against the Kansas City dynasty that looks to define my adulthood much like the Patriots dynasty (as well as family / friends) defined my childhood. It's going to be a hell of a game.

I'm starting to get antsy, so I won't deep dive into the game. All I'll say is that the Niners will run at will, look to Kittle in man coverage, and make sure Third and Jauan Jennings hits over 1.5 receptions. Kansas City will also move the ball against a suspect Niners defense, and the Houdini in Mahomes will come out a few times during the game. He'll probably play far better than he did in Super Bowl 54. But it won't matter in the end. Niners 29, Chiefs 26.

The activities are calling my name. Will I get to do another broadcast with Dan Orlovsky, who I wrote a Bleacher Report post about 12 and a half years ago in anticipation of this very moment? Will I finally smoke my mom in the accuracy challenge? Will I memorize every Super Bowl touchdown? Will my mom finally memorize every word to Niner Gang by E-40? Will I make it back on Freezing Cold Takes? Will my dad maintain the hot hand at the tables?

It may take a few days to gather my thoughts postgame...but I'll be back on here. GO NINERS

The Script - That Is, the Revised Script - Had This Super Bowl Matchup All Along

2024-01-31T11:52:00.000-08:00

Screenwriter Goodell has done it again!

It's admittedly not the script I saw written in the stars - or rather in the combination of the NFL's Super Bowl logo and a Memphis radio station's (now) false advertising. The best explanation is that not even Goodell could have foreseen the Taylor Swift effect - and called in the cast midseason to push the Chiefs' Super Bowl hangover back one more year at Baltimore's expense. When the Harbaugh family threatened to sue, he called in a favor to the NCAA - and Jalen Milroe - to have Jim pocket the family's due 2023 ring. And then, to give big bro the upper hand, inflicted Jim with the worst curse in all of sports - that of the LA Chargers. Equilibrium is restored.

It looked like the revised script was about to bring the 49ers down too in favor of the bookended schedule Super Bowl that Jake Marsh wanted to see so badly - the same kickoff game and championship game matchup. The thought crossed my mind as a minor consolation in the second quarter. Instead, the edited script brought ultimate heartbreak to a city that, much like Cleveland a couple weeks earlier, certainly didn't need another.

Since my entire weekend preview was just hyping up Ravens teams of past before glossing over what I thought would be a relatively easy win for the 49ers, let's use most of our ink on the game of the year - or at least the quarter of the year.

San Francisco looked dead in the water for most of the first half, especially on defense. Chevy Chase Young was responsible for the biggest scandal, moving at 0.2x speed on a Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown run that he could have prevented with even a light jog. The Lions' vaunted offensive line dominated - they ran right down Main Street with all lanes open in the first half.

And then it all changed with one of the best quarters of football you'll ever witness.

49ers fans are quite lucky. They've seen The Catch. They've seen The Catch II (Terrell Owens). They've seen The Catch III (Vernon Davis). Yes, the stakes weren't quite the same in the middle of the third quarter. But you could argue that they saw The Catch IV when Brandon Aiyuk somehow had the agility to bounce straight from a vertical leap into a horizontal one, securing a 51-yard pass with his fingertips. It was just not too dissimilar from the Jermaine Kearse catch in Super Bowl 49, which is probably not what you remember most from that drive. The 49ers, just like the Seahawks, followed that play with a pass over the middle, but this time it worked as Aiyuk hauled in a 6-yard touchdown strike.

If we play the sequence of what had to happen for San Francisco to take the lead in such a short span, it's quite miraculous. Purdy throwing across his body like Mahomes to Jauan Jennings doing his best OBJ impression (The Catch V?) on 3rd down to set up Jake for a 43-yard-field goal - turning his Moody ring green. Dan Campbell going to Jared on fourth down - and thanks to Josh Reynolds' feet for hands, the play call not working out. The Aiyuk catch. A Jahmyr Gibbs fumble. Purdy channeling Lamar for another impressive scramble. Another Reynolds drop. Mr. Irrelevant ducking and dodging All-Pro defenders to spin to his left a la Mahomes, throwing a dart to a Harvard University fullback who could probably run an algorithm to tell you he's the only fullback in the league capable of the exquisite toe-tap he executed on the sideline. Perhaps soon to be known as the Catch VI.

The run was so magical that I had the chance to spill my table's worth of drinks for the Aiyuk catch, reflect on how I wanted to improve my spatial awareness in the heat of a celebration, and have four more chances to work on it before the third quarter struck zero.

As I watch the highlights of the fourth quarter, I realize it was always a close game - with the Lions having a real chance to take the lead in the middle of it. But it always felt like the Niners were going to get it done. When Campbell, faced with another 4th and 2, dialed up a 14-carat play call at Jared instead of an 8-carat one, the Niners defense left no doubt. They smothered Amon Ra, scored again - thanks to more mobility from 13 - and punched their ticket to Vegas.

Last year's Niners playoff games, as well as the 2019 team's playoff games, went mostly according to plan. The Niners weren't perfect, but it never got too dangerous. This year, two teams that showed significant chinks in the armor during the regular season almost eliminated them multiple times. But that's how it goes sometimes. The Ravens had never played from behind and had an identity crisis when forced to do so. The Niners were aided by some luck, but they never lost their identity, feeding McCaffrey 20 times.

Kyle Shanahan may look like and pace the sidelines like a nervous Kendall Roy, but he kept his cool in uncharted waters. He's now 8-3 in the playoffs. Purdy wasn't perfect, but he made multiple plays that a certain last two round draft pick with a Super Bowl win over the Chiefs could have never made. He's now 4-1 in the playoffs, but really 4-0. Kittle served out a frisbee-sized flapjack to Aidan Hutchinson. Deebo had 8 catches. Elijah Mitchell delivered the knockout blow. It took a village.

Detroit, on the other hand, had a hell of a season. Dan Campbell will get blame for both his aggressive fourth-down playcalling (as well as the juxtaposition of a chip shot field goal rather than a knockout punch at the end of the first half). I'd probably have done exactly what he did in all 3 scenarios. He should not have burned a timeout at the end of the game, but other than that, he coached that team better than anyone could have and deserves a ton of credit. Reynolds had a tough game but played a huge role all season. In a conference that doesn't have any of the league's top 7 quarterbacks (although MVPurdy and Jared belong in the conversation), Detroit will certainly be back.

To the victors go the spoils - but also the ultimate dragon to slay. The Mahomes narrative added another chapter today as the similarities between Pat and Tom / Andy and Bill / KC and NE continue to pile up. Just as New England finished a five-year run of four Super Bowl appearances from 2014 to 2018, Kansas City ignited their own from 2019 to 2023. Just like the Patriots won three Lombardis in that span, the Chiefs have the chance to do the same. #15 has the chance to win his 15th playoff game in his sixth season as a starter - a feat that #12 didn't accomplish until his 11th season as a starter.

Mahomes was absolutely fantastic in the first half, zipping lasers to Kelce from in and out of the pocket. He didn't do much as the Bullies of Baltimore woke up in the second half, but he didn't need to. It was quite similar to a Belichick . Brady playoff win - efficient, turnover-free quarterback play, punishing defense, timely quarterback play, and the feeling that it was going to go Mahomes' way.

Baltimore forgot its identity on the biggest stage, and it mattered. The L'Jarius Sneed peanut punch at the half-yard line was the play of the game, although Lamar's lollipop to a backup tight end into triple coverage was up there. Regardless, the Chiefs are Super Bowl bound with the best defense they've had at any point in the dynasty.

More content to come on what will no doubt be the most-watched television event ever due to Travis making Taylor famous and the Andy Reid "give me some of those nuggies" commercials. It may not be the matchup America claims they wanted. But it's a matchup America is lucky to have.

Archetypes have a way of repeating themselves in this league. One shape-shifting dynasty anchored by a chosen one followed by the next. One 49ers team with great defense, offensive weapons and a game executive (albeit a far more trustworthy and slightly less handsome one than Jimmy G) followed by the next. One year of Baily's Super Bowl pick (SF / Cleveland, then SF / Baltimore) being egregiously wrong followed by the next).

Here’s to hoping the SF over Kansas City archetype established by Madison Bumgarner in 2014 can repeat itself. Baby-faced superstars (Buster Posey, Steph Curry) winning championships has been the norm in the last 15 years of Bay Area sports. It's time for #13 to get his.

Let's hope the (revised) script agrees.

Conference Championship Chatter

2024-01-27T11:43:00.000-08:00

I'm gonna start with Baltimore and Kansas City, because I actually might have more to say on this topic than on my beloved 49ers. There are a number of nerd nuggets (thanks to Jake Marsh from Pardon My Take) that absolutely astound me when it comes to this game.

Theme 1: Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes has more playoff wins than Aaron Rodgers. He has as many as Brett Favre and Big Ben. If he wins Super Bowl 58, he will not only break the curse of the Super Bowl logo, but he will also pass the likes of Peyton Manning and Steve Young to reach 3rd all time in playoff wins. He's 28!
This is the first time Kansas City hasn't hosted the AFC Championship Game since 2017! The Chiefs will have played five opponents - New England, Tennessee, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and now Baltimore, in those six years. New England rattled off seven straight appearances from 2011-2017 and won four. Mahomes has already won three.
Mahomes, as a starter, has never not been to the AFC Championship Game before.
Since 2018, when Mahomes decisively won his first playoff game and lost a heartbreaking AFC Championship Game track meet (he scored 24 points on his last four drives, only sacrificing 4 because time ran out in regulation), he has won 2+ playoff games every season.

More due credit to PMT for informing this next thought stream - but he's won every which way with every type of supporting cast. In 2019, he lit up the scoreboard, averaging 39 PPG in 3 playoff wins and throwing deep ball after deep ball to Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. When he was challenged in the Super Bowl by a stout 49er defense, he responded after throwing 2 interceptions - connecting on two crucial fourth-quarter deep balls. Oh - and they trailed by 10+ in all 3 of their playoff wins, including a 24-point deficit in the Divisional Round.

In 2022, he didn't have Tyreek anymore and didn't have a fully functional ankle. But he had Travis Kelce playing better than ever and just enough efficiency to move the Chiefs to 24 points on their last 4 Super Bowl drives - just like in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, but with a better result.

In 2023, he has a horrific supporting cast of industry plants like Kadarius Toney. But he has Rashee Rice finally figuring it out and Travis Kelce finally getting into playoff mode. The Chiefs were god-awful in December, letting the Raiders score as many points on defense as they scored on offense in a Christmas Day stinker. They look just fine now.

The ability for the Chiefs to evolve over this six-year stretch is terrifying - because it's exactly how New England operated for 20 years. The Chiefs did it with a gunslinging, electrifying deep-ball offense in Mahomes' first two years - but the defense wasn't great. Now, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league - one that has shown up thus far in allowing just 15.5 PPG in two playoff games.

What is perhaps most impressive about both the Patriots and the Chiefs is how they've prevented so many other talented players from getting theirs. Peyton and Big Ben finally got their two rings, and even Joe Flacco slipped through the cracks. But Steve McNair, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Rich Gannon, and Tim Tebow are among the many elite quarterbacks who never overcame number 12 in New England.

Now, the AFC is littered with quarterbacks - arguably the best seven in the league. Yet Justin Herbert can't get past number 15 in the AFC West. Josh Allen - in spite of unbelievable performances against Kansas City - has been booted by the Chiefs in three of the last four seasons. Mahomes has met his match in Joe Burrow - but got the last laugh in the 2022 AFC Championship Game.

So now enter a new challenger - Lamar Jackson. I talked a bit about the Ravens in my last post about Cleveland - using Baltimore as the literary foil to the Browns' misery. Some nuggets:

The Ravens have won two Super Bowls with two elite quarterbacks - Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer - without hosting an AFC Championship Game in playoff history.
While the Browns suffered a 26-year playoff drought from 1994 to 2020, the Ravens had the greatest defense of all time and a Super Bowl ring within five years of existence.
The Ravens have 17 playoff wins since 2000 - more than Kansas City and more than any team besides New England

Historical analogies form the basis of my thinking for this game - and they inform me that the Ravens will win. The franchise's identity has come full-circle once again - an elite quarterback (Dilfer, Flacco, Lamar) and the best defense in football.

In all seriousness, it is wild how the Ravens went from Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs to Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Justin Madubuike, and Patrick Queen. It's been 23 years since the 2000 Ravens decimated NFL offenses, but the pedigree has traveled from generation to generation. These guys obviously haven't earned the same reputation. Perhaps they'll move a step closer on Sunday.

I recently watched "The Band That Wouldn't Die," the 30 for 30 on the old Baltimore Colts team band that tirelessly petitioned for a new team from 1984 to 1996. The city, much like Cleveland, had scars. But it finally got its team. From day 1, the Ravens went to work crafting an identity of 1970s physicality with 2000s athleticism. Johnny Unitas, for all his greatness as a Baltimore Colt, certainly never led teams with that identity. It uniquely belongs to the Ravens.

McNair, Gannon, Luck, and Manning - the same elite quarterbacks mentioned earlier who didn't get theirs because of Brady - all got stifled by the Bullies of Baltimore in the playoffs of their two Super Bowl championship campaigns. Even Brady could only muster a measly 13 points - at home - in a 2012 AFC Championship loss to Baltimore.

Brady was susceptible to pressure up the middle - and when those 2012 Ravens, 2013 Broncos, and 2015 Broncos brought it, he lost. For all Brady's greatness - 34 playoff wins, 7 rings, 10 conference championship wins - he did lose four conference championship games, three of them at the hands of Peyton. Maybe Lamar (or Burrow) will have that effect on number 15. Star Chiefs guard Joe Thuney will either not play or play injured. Mahomes will find himself running for his life on more than one occasion Sunday - just like C.J. Stroud did last Saturday. Just like he did against Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55, he'll find a way to make a few heroic plays. But it won't be enough.

Ultimately, even Tom Brady couldn't break the Madden curse in 2018. So why will Mahomes break the Super Bowl logo / iHeart radio curse?

Now onto the other side of the curse - a broken one in Detroit, but a new one about to begin. Jared Goff has been fantastic this season, and Dan Campbell ('s Chunky) has been the perfect solution to a city's hunger that just won't quit. The Lions deserve to be here - and they will present a challenge on Sunday.

But there are days when the San Francisco offense just can't be stopped, and Sunday will be one of them. Kyle Shanahan(ded) the Lions 41 points the last time these two teams met. The Lions are far better, but the defense is still shaky. Deebo is playing. CMC is playing. Trent is playing. Purdy is playing. E-40 will be watching. Everything is in place for the Niner Gang.

Detroit will score - they have the best wide receiver group out of the remaining teams. But in spite of the Ambry Thomas debacle of January 20, the Niners defense actually held up pretty well - albeit by a thread on a few red zone situations. Detroit will score. The Niners will score more.

I honestly don't have too much else to say. I'm biased, but I'm confident. San Francisco's last few home playoff games have gone swimmingly - they have won six straight dating back to Colin Kaepernick running roughshod over the Packer defense in 2012. Weird vibes were in the air last Saturday, but the Niners transcended demons of the past. This will also be a test, but it will be the least daunting of the three.

That moniker goes to the Baltimore Birdies, who will await Purdy in two weeks in the rematch screenwriter Goodell has wanted all season long.

Believeland: The Collective City-Wide Pain of a Championship Curse

2024-01-27T10:52:00.000-08:00

Since the mid-1950s, economic hardship and athletic heartbreak have had an eerily strong correlation in Cleveland...so much so that one may even wonder if correlation equals causation.

The phrase "pessimistic city" was used in the 30 for 30 "Believeland" more than once to describe the mistake on the lake, bereaveland, grieveland, you name it. Believeland it or not, a moniker that could be credibly used to describe the city in 1955 was "the best location in the nation". The Browns had made 10 consecutive title games (winning 7), the then-Indians were a few years removed from baseball glory, and the city had twice as many Fortune 500 companies as San Francisco and Los Angeles...combined. The Cavs weren't around yet. We'll get to them later.

But an exodus to suburbia, loss of industrial jobs, and the rising tensions that accommodated this pain quickly began to scar the city's psyche. In 1978, Cleveland became the first major city to default on its loans. At this point, the city was 14 years removed from its last major championship. Jim Brown, not responsible for the team namesake but responsible for much of its success, had delivered Cleveland's eighth as a franchise - and fourth in the NFL - in 1964. But he was long gone, and the city's championship pedigree began to evaporate with him.

The phenomenon of the shared, collective trauma accumulated by the city over the years absolutely fascinated me as I watched this film. In my last post, I drew parallels between Al Davis and Eckhart Tolle's famous The Power of Now and New Earth. The similarities jumped out even more obviously here. Cleveland is the perfect case study of a dense pain-body - a region with so much trauma and tied so much of its identity into external entities that have suffered heartbreak time and time again.

Now, not everyone is as wired and strange in their sports fandom as I am. But I absolutely love the way this city rides for their teams - for the most part. The creative ingenuity of the Dawg Pound and the props that came with it was a stroke of genius. I don't mean to indicate that every Clevelandian's happiness is at the mercy of Joe Flacco's Browns and Donovan Mitchell's Cavs (I sure hope not). But fierce loyalty to these teams is deeply ingrained in the city's DNA. It's impossible to grow up in the region without the passion - and the pain that comes with it - becoming part of the individual psyche.

So how did things go sideways? Was it a statistically significant number of strokes of bad luck? Or was it inevitable that the city would adopt a victim mentality?

The documentary takes us quickly through the rough 60s and 70s and catches us up to 1980. At this point, it's been 16 years since one of the team's three major franchises - the Browns, Indians, and Cavs - had won a championship.

Now, that timeframe is not insignificant. But 16 years ago, I was an antsy little kid on the precipice of uploading my first Baily Sports Report newscast to the interwebs. Not much has changed there!

In all seriousness, there are plenty of sports towns who have endured 16-year title droughts without adopting the mantra of a city of losers. Phoenix has four teams and hasn't won a championship since 2001 - 88 championship-less seasons since. Miami has four teams and hasn't won a ring since Ray Allen's heroics in 2013 - a 42-season drought.

Hell, none of New York City's eight franchises (including the Nets) have won a ring since Mario Manningham was toe-tapping and Victor Cruz was salsa dancing in 2011. That's 96 seasons since a Big Apple franchise has taken home the hardware! At that point, Cleveland had only suffered 41 seasons without a ring - not to mention the Cavs being a 1970 expansion franchise with zero immediate championship expectations.

Sorry for the only mildly relevant tangent (feel free to skip those in future, I haven't found a way to stop them yet), but the point is that the external results were not such for Cleveland to have a solidified losing identity.

Regardless, there was hope for it all to change in 1980. Cleveland boasted league MVP Brian Sipe (who would find himself slinging the rock for the Donald's New Jersey Generals of the USFL a few years later) and a top-tier roster primed to contend for a Super Bowl for the first time since Jim Brown.

They hosted Al Davis' Raiders in the Divisional Round, who were on the formidable quest to become the first Wild Card team to win a Super Bowl - long before the days of elite QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Trent Dilfer winning a Super Bowl in the same position. They had the ball down 2 in the final minute, well within range for a game-winning kick - albeit a treacherous one in snowy Cleveland. Instead, Sipe threw a game-losing interception - one that may trigger recent trauma of unnecessarily throwing a ball up for grabs in the middle of the field among Packers fans.

It was a backbreaking loss - especially given that Cleveland had to watch Davis coast through the next two rounds en route to his second ring in five years. But I can't help but wonder whether a loss of similar tragic proportions would have left such a deep cut in another city.

The untreated wound began to suffer annual infections caused by the horse's kick of the Denver Broncos in the late 1980s. Browns fans are all too familiar with "The Drive" and "The Fumble," which actually were among the most gut-wrenching defeats in NFL history. John Elway miraculously drove the donkeys 98 yards down the field to tie the 1987 AFC Championship Game at 20, sending the game to overtime. There, the barefooted Rich Karlis - speaking of infected wounds - booted the Broncos to the Super Bowl with a game-winning field goal that debatably didn't go through the uprights.

What interested me most about the loss, however, was the way the documentary interviewees described their feelings as it was happening. Some noted that the first play of the drive, a 6-yard pass from Elway to Sammy Winder to almost certainly eliminate the possibility of a safety, instigated a gut feeling that something was wrong. Others noted it being the initial first down, or the Broncos approaching midfield.

Regardless, the voices were that of a pessimistic city. The odds were squarely in Cleveland's favor, even when Denver actually completed that 98-yard drive. Yet it felt like a self-fulfilling prophecy - one that realized itself again the next year when Earnest Byner fumbled just short of walking into the end zone for a tying touchdown in the same game a year later.

Ten years later, the Cleveland Browns were the Baltimore Ravens (more on this), and the Cleveland Indians were the city's crown jewel. Let's set the scene - the Indians lead the upstart Florida Marlins 2-1 in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series. The game is far from over, but the World Series trophy is being wheeled into the Indians' dugout. The team owner is nervous about Jose Mesa, the team's closer, being in the game. There's a sense of impending doom among the city.

It's impossible to say whether a different city's psyche would've held up differently in the same situation. Even the Yankees blew an identical lead in Game 7 of the World Series 4 years later. But for one reason or another, the Indians imploded, giving up a run in the ninth and another in the 11th in a 3-2 defeat. An error from normally sure-handed second baseman Tony Fernandez marked a crucial moment in the loss.

The city finally had some ties to a championship in 2000 - when the entity formerly known as the Cleveland Browns, now the Ravens, steamrolled the Giants in Super Bowl 35. And another one in 2012. Interestingly, the Ravens bounced back from an AFC Championship Game loss the year before that, externally, was just as bad as "The Drive" - dropping a game-winning touchdown and missing a short game-tying field goal in New England. They marched right back into Foxboro one year later and won convincingly, despite trailing in the second half.

The city's savior - and eventual villain, and finally savior - finally did bring home that ring that was supposed to cure all trouble. The 2016 NBA Finals may go down as the greatest of all time - the Cavs miraculously rebounding from a 3-1 deficit to beat the greatest regular-season team of all time three times in a row, two on the road. It was LeBron's magnum opus. The same can be said for Kyrie and Anderson Varejao, who was arguably an industry plant at center for the Warriors.

The sheer joy in the city when Marreese Speights (for some reason) bricked the final shot was unbelievable. The idea was that the entire curse would be cleansed by one championship. The city could identify with being a champion - the only identity that could, in the short term, take precedence over the victim one that had hardened over the last 52 years. It was glorious.

And yet, four months later, the same 3-1 curse hit Cleveland from the other side, as the Indians blew a 3-1 lead in the Fall Classic. Kevin Durant joined Golden State 2 weeks after the Cavs' ring and snatched the 2017 and 2018 championships from Cleveland's clutches. Seven years later, we don't know whether the "curse" has been broken - or what it really was.

Now, every team has difficult losses. Someone has to occupy the dreaded position at left tail of the "luck" spectrum. But I couldn't shake the feeling that Cleveland had made it their point of pride to be victims, chasing an external result so profusely to distract from a pervading aura of fear and negativity that would return at some point during every Cleveland Browns campaign. It may not be a coincidence that the Ravens have seemed to had more bounces than not go their way. The most notable of these, of course, is the Mile High Miracle / Flacco Fling / Jacoby Jones Jaunt in the 2013 Divisional Playoff - against the same Denver Broncos that still haunt the worst nightmares of the Dawg Pound. As I post this, we get ready to watch the Ravens host an AFC Championship Game I believe they will win.

If the Super Bowl color and radio announcement conspiracies hold true, this is all a cruel simulation that ruins the Browns time and time again. The city has attached so much of its collective identity to external results, and once it got the one championship it needed to make everything right, that inevitably turned out to not be enough. The ego always wants more - especially when fed by a dense pain-body accumulated over an timeline of excruciating games.

What was interesting was the frequent acknowledgement of the victim identity by Cleveland residents. That self-awareness is the first step to shedding the identity. In my mind, this can be measured better by the energy and confidence of the team rather than merely ring counting. Joe Burrow doesn't have a ring in the NFL, but he's a winner. He took a city with a 31-year playoff drought and rattled off five playoff wins in two years. Now, the Bengals suffered two of the most gut-wrenching losses in league history in 2021 and 2022. Yet the team still has victorious energy - a huge testament to Burrow's swagger and that of the entire organization. That comes from acknowledgement of the team's past - and a willingness to transcend the demons come playoff time with a new savior.

It won't be an easy process for the Browns, Cavs, and Guardians - overcoming pain-bodies never is - but it's not a hopeless one.

I began writing this post last week and tabled it until after the Divisional Round. This weekend's games blessed me with much more fodder on this same topic - as "Wide Right" repeated itself while the Lions got the playoff monkey off their back. It also gave me the short-term glee of a Jordan Love cross-body interception diss (although all credit to him, he played well and will be a force for years to come). More to come soon - hopefully slicing the word count and the quantitative rants a bit - on the same topic.

Taking My Talents Back to Baily's Sports and Stuff...And My Thoughts on Al Davis vs the NFL

2024-01-14T13:31:00.000-08:00

I've recently gotten captivated by the practice of journaling - generally on my own thoughts that I notice and how I feel at various moments. This has been a transformative practice in my personal life in enabling me to be more honest with myself (which is really hard!) - whether that be about discomfort I feel, what conditions provide a state of flow, or anything in between.

The ability to document my life on paper - and go back and read what resonated with me at a particular point in time - has been a similarly great practice for me. Recently, the excitement of playoff football and midseason basketball has led to me pursuing a similar practice in my personal journal - airing out thoughts on sports ranging from stats I've tried to memorize to my (often unwanted) psychological analysis on a given athlete / situation. I love the process of putting pen to paper, and plan to continue this in my personal life.

But when it comes to sports, I had the thought that maybe there's no better place for me to air out thoughts than this blog. This blog was my home as an elementary and middle schooler. As a more introverted little kid, this blog was my happy place. I even dabbled a bit in college when I wanted to capture my excitement around these beautiful games.

I have no clue what I'll want to write about here, and I imagine it will fluctuate wildly with no rhyme or reason. I'm captivated by numbers and stats, and may write some posts on those themes. I had an amazing trip to the City of Brotherly Love last month to watch the home team get Shanahanded a 23-point defeat...and eventually a Wild Card berth rather than the top seed...by the wagon that is the San Francisco 49ers. Maybe I'll write posts about past / future gameday experiences.

Right now, I'm intrigued by the Al Davis vs the NFL 30 for 30 that I watched this morning. My thoughts are below:

The 2000 baby in me is biased toward thinking of the Raiders as a "poverty franchise" - one that hasn't won a playoff game since before my little brother was born. My memories of watching the Raiders compete in January consist of two forgettable Wild Card games - Cincinnati snapping its 31-year-postseason drought over Las Vegas and Brock Osweiler outdueling Connor Cook.

But the weird part of me that fiends for NFL (and AFL) history knows that the autumn wind is a Raider - and that the franchise is a massive component of the league's collective DNA. Basically from the inception, it's been the Davis family at the forefront of the franchise. I couldn't help but feel the fascination of Al Davis, one of the most hell-bent executors and winners in a league chock full of them. Snoop Dogg came to the conclusion that he said it best - just win, baby, win.

And win Davis did. In just over 20 years after taking over as head coach in 1963, he:

Transformed them from an 0-13 laughingstock copying the University of Pacific's uniforms to a silver and black military-esque machine - modeled after the Army Black Knights he idolized as a child. Oakland went 8-5-1 in 1965
Was named AFL commissioner and leveraged aggressive tactics - shelling out money to some of the NFL's best - to get the AFL-NFL merger approved in 1966
Reclaimed a partial - and eventually a majority - stake in the Raiders, taking them to the Super Bowl once and AFL Championship Game twice in three straight seasons from 1967-1969
Hired the fabled John Madden - who continued the franchise's on-field success into the 1970s
The silver and black finally won gold in 1976...and again in 1980 (as a Wild Card team)...and again in 1983. They won all 3 games by 17+ points
Moved the franchise to Los Angeles...more on this

Davis was a doer who was concerned with one team only - his own. His ideals clashed with the legendary Pete Rozelle, whom I've learned a bit about through listening to the NFL episode of the Acquired podcast (a 4-hour listen that may require a strangely-wired brain like my own to stomach, but well worth it).

Rozelle was a PR genius and a tremendous diplomat who had a bit of gestalt (and a bit of luck) in him. He knew the importance of a league-first strategy, television, and political relationships (which played a massive role in getting TV contracts and the NFL-AFL merger approved). Rozelle was an excellent commissioner.

But the thorn in his side that eventually accelerated his resignation was Davis - and Davis' desire to move the Raiders to the mass media market of LA. Davis hadn't made it his mission to win over the approval of the NFL owners. Thus, he came up far short of the 3/4 majority he needed to win approval of moving the team. So he sued - which led to a messy 2-year court case that even opened up more lawsuits within it when the Chargers owner at the time, Gene Klein, suffered a heart attack immediately after testifying and almost died.

Davis eventually got to move the Raiders, and he won a Super Bowl in Oakland during the process and in Los Angeles soon after the process. But even from an objective standpoint, it's hard to say if he really won. What followed was further disputes with the city of Los Angeles. He wanted to renovate the Coliseum, and the city wouldn't do it. So he considered moving the team to Orlando, then to Sacramento. He eventually settled on Oakland, but that never proved to be enough when his son moved the team to its current Vegas home four years ago. Who knows where they'll go next.

I recently read The Power of Now, and am now reading A New Earth, by Eckhart Tolle. Both heavily analyze the concept of the ego, or the false self that creates a sense of self-importance through status-driven actions like wanting. I'm quite new to the concepts of the book and am far from having the most informed opinion, but it provides an interesting lens to think about Al and Pete here.

Al won a lot. He never stopped wanting to win, but objectively, he stopped winning. The Raiders got into a vicious litigious cycle and only escaped when they went back to Oakland - where the results weren't pretty on the field. The Raiders did make it to the big game in 2002, but Davis' last 28 years brought him zero championships.

In the documentary, he was asked for his take on death. His response was interesting.

I can control most things, but I can't seem to control death.

His whole life was about control, and seeking external avenues to gain more. First controlling the Raiders' on-field operations, then controlling the AFL, then owning part of the Raiders, then owning all of it, and then relentlessly seeking ways to improve the team by diving into various locations for 15+ years. But eventually, there hit a limit. I'd be curious to know what the last 15 years of Davis' life were like without the external validation of winning football games and championships, faced with the inevitable reality of life.

As for Rozelle, the saga took a hit on him too. He mentioned enjoying the job less in his final 13 years than in his first 16 - and on the surface, it showed. He looked sickly when resigning in 1989, and passed 7 years later at the age of 70. He also won frequently as NFL commissioner, taking the league from a budding flower to an entertainment titan - and by far the most popular sport in America.

But the Davis saga was interesting from Rozelle's perspective. In the long run, it actually turned out to be fantastic for the NFL. It led the league where it was meant to go in the form of teams pursuing large media markets and building state-of-the-art stadiums to significantly enhance the fan experience.

Rozelle's argument centered on the musical chairs around the country that would ensue if Davis won the lawsuit. Logically, he had a point. But I wonder if there was more to it for him - the desire to reinforce his own ego by beating his archrival, even though his rival's victory ended up providing a great outcome for his baby - the league. The external circumstances - including losing the lawsuit - that he continued to fight for seemed to take the fun out of the job for him.

Again, I could be very wrong on all of this. But the interpersonal dynamics of the feud are quite interesting here. Both seemed to have been drained of vital energy by a somewhat pointless battle - and what each initially wanted - for Davis to move to LA, and for Rozelle to keep Davis from moving to LA - arguably proved to be / would have proven to be a suboptimal objective outcome for what each really cared about - the success of the Raiders for Davis, and the success of the league for Rozelle. That was a mouthful...but it makes sense in my head.

If anyone's reading (I'm not sure anyone is)...feel free to email me at bailydeeter@gmail.com with thoughts or questions! I've been sports blogging for 15 years (sort of) now, but this is a unique type of post that I may continue to experiment with.

Also...Cowboys, Lions, Bills (barely), and Bucs these next 2 days. Niners over the Chiefs (replacing the Browns, that +4500 Browns / 49ers Super Bowl bet didn't pan out) in Super Bowl 58, with me there to witness (and maybe blog).

Divisional Round Preview

2019-01-10T18:32:00.004-08:00

After going 3 of 4 last week (thanks, Chicago), I'm feeling pretty confident about my picks for the upcoming weekend. The Wild Card round saw three of the four road teams emerge victorious, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw somewhat similar results this week. Nonetheless, I expect one of the most exciting football weekends in recent memory.

Colts at Chiefs

The top-seeded Chiefs got somewhat unlucky with this matchup. The Colts are playing strong defense, Andrew Luck has done so much with not a whole lot of talent around him, and, most importantly, they are winning up front. Guard Quenton Nelson is winning them football games, and Marlon Mack's 148-yard rushing performance was outstanding against a strong Houston defense.

But for whatever reason, I just don't see Andy Reid blowing this one. The Colts are a strong team, and they're playing phenomenally as of late, but they haven't seen an offense like the Chiefs. A team like the Bears, with the best defense in the league, is built to beat the Chiefs. The Colts have a good defense, but they don't have the elite defense required to stop Patrick Mahomes and company.

With two weeks to plan for this game, Reid and the Chiefs will be ready to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shootout like the Broncos vs Ravens Divisional game in 2012 or the Ravens vs Patriots game in 2014. It's going to be a classic track meet, but I think the Chiefs will score just enough to win this game. The Colts didn't play very well in the second half against Houston, and that will be their downfall in this game. Kansas City wins a close one off of a late touchdown to advance to the AFC championship.

Chiefs 35, Colts 28

Cowboys at Rams

As I've been saying for the last week, the Cowboys had a legitimate shot to get to the NFC Championship Game if they got the right path. Thanks to Nick Foles, Dallas is in prime position to capitalize against a weak Rams team.

This is a better outcome for the Rams than playing Chicago, but Dallas is still a formidable matchup. Seattle's top run game was shut down by Dallas; star running back Chris Carson ran for a mere 20 yards on 13 carries. Todd Gurley hasn't played well against top defenses; Chicago shut him down for just 28 yards on 11 carries.

With Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith playing stellar football at linebacker, I think the Cowboys will dare Jared Goff to beat them. Goff wasn't bad in the playoffs against the Falcons last year, but he didn't do enough to win. The same thing will happen here as a couple Rams turnovers and a ball-control approach from the Cowboys will be just enough for Dallas to pull off a major upset.

Cowboys 23, Rams 20

Chargers at Patriots

I've been waiting for this matchup all year, and in spite of a near collapse last week, we finally get to see Phillip Rivers aim for revenge against Tom Brady and New England.

The Patriots are still the Patriots, but I really believe the Chargers are the stronger team here. They won more games in the regular season, they have a more balanced team, and they have a more explosive offense. Rivers has been mediocre lately, but Brady hasn't been himself either.

I fully expect Los Angeles to be leading in the second half just like last week against Baltimore. However, against New England's weak run defense, the Chargers would be able to close out the game instead of collapsing like last week. Melvin Gordon will bounce back in a big way, and the Chargers will rely heavily on him offensively in the cold weather.

The Patriots won't be an easy out, but this Chargers team is equipped to finally get past New England. Rivers gets his revenge and ignites questions about the 41-year-old Brady's future.

Chargers 19, Patriots 17

Eagles at Saints

It wasn't Nick Foles' strongest performance, but somehow, the man did it again. Foles' late-game magic allowed the Eagles to squeak past the Bears and into the second round, where they'll face the formidable New Orleans Saints.

Most people appear to be picking the Saints as not only the NFC favorite but also the Super Bowl favorite. I'll be boring and do the same. This is the same Saints team that beat the Eagles 48-7 earlier in the season and the same Saints team that is 5-0 in home playoff games under Sean Payton and Drew Brees.

Foles won't be an easy out, and this won't be like the previous Saints-Eagles game. However, New Orleans is the better team, and I expect this to be the biggest blowout of the four games.

Saints 34, Eagles 20

Wild Card Saturday Recap

2019-01-05T23:08:00.001-08:00

If you were cheering for a blue and white team that started with the letter "C", you probably are going to sleep satisfied with today's games. The Killer C's, the Colts and Cowboys, both played hard-nosed, smashmouth football to pick up victories over the Texans and Seahawks.

Colts 21, Texans 7

Indianapolis completely dominated Houston from the get-go. T.Y. Hilton had 63 receiving yards on the opening drive before Andrew Luck, playing in his first playoff game in four years, found Eric Ebron for a touchdown. The Colts marched down the field all day long, with Marlon Mack's 148 yards highlighting a stellar offensive effort.

The score, a modest 21-7, doesn't highlight how dominant Indianapolis was on offense. Luck threw an interception on a deflected screen pass, but otherwise, the Colts controlled the clock and the game. That interception flipped the momentum and gave Houston a shot down 14-0. But the Colts got the ball right back, scored on a touchdown pass from Luck to Dontrelle Inman, and effectively punched their ticket to Kansas City then and there.

Cowboys 24, Seahawks 22

Dallas, on the other hand, played in a more tightly contested game. However, its formula for winning was essentially the same. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 137 yards, the defense played phenomenally all day and Dak Prescott, other than one fluky interception, controlled the game with stellar play.

Amari Cooper had 106 receiving yards to lead Dallas' receivers, while rookie Michael Gallup had a critical touchdown catch to end the first half. While the Cowboys defense let Russell Wilson score two touchdowns, they suffocated Seattle's league-leading run game. Carson ran for a paltry 20 yards on 13 carries, ruining Seattle's season and my daily fantasy roster.

What's Next For the Colts?

Indianapolis is guaranteed a date at Arrowhead Stadium with Kansas City, which should be a phenomenal game. Both teams rely heavily on offense and have brilliant coaches who will be sure to prepare their teams. Frank Reich has been amazing in his rookie season in Indianapolis, while Andy Reid has always been known for his stroke of offensive genius.

I have always said that Kansas City looks like a one-and-done team, but I think they'll win a track meet because the Colts aren't built to beat the Chiefs.

Great defense beats great offense in the playoffs, which is why Kansas City won't win the Super Bowl. Indianapolis has a good but not a great defense. Deshaun Watson missed some key throws that Patrick Mahomes won't miss next week. Pierre Desir matched up well with DeAndre Hopkins' physicality. No one matches up quite that well with Tyreek Hill and his speed.

With that said, the Colts will put up a tremendous fight, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see them emerge from Arrowhead with a victory. If you have plans for next Saturday at 4:40 ET, cancel them. You're going to want to see this.

Chiefs 35, Colts 28

What's next for the Cowboys?

Unlike the Colts, Dallas doesn't know who its next opponent will be. It will travel to either New Orleans (if Chicago beats Philadelphia) or Los Angeles (if Philadelphia beats Chicago).

Dallas beat New Orleans in late November and could certainly do it again, although I wouldn't count on it. The Saints are 5-0 in the Superdome in the playoffs with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Saints don't typically lose to a team twice in a season. Dallas is great on defense, but it matches up better with a run-heavy team like Seattle than a pass-heavy team like the Saints.

The Rams, on the other hand, are a total Wild Card. Jared Goff did not come to play in December, and the Goff/Sean McVay tandem are already 0-1 in home playoff games. A great defense like Dallas could definitely stifle Todd Gurley and the Rams, although a mastermind like McVay should have an answer for the Cowboys.

If it is indeed Cowboys at Saints, give me the Saints in a somewhat close game-call it 27-17 New Orleans. If it's the Rams, my gut is to roll with top defenses and pick Dallas 22-21. Stay tuned, Cowboys fans, and root for the Eagles tomorrow, as hard as that may be.

Overall NFL Playoff Predictions

2019-01-03T18:39:00.000-08:00

As I said in my Wild Card post, this is the first time in a while that we have such a level playing field in the postseason. The New Orleans Saints are probably the Super Bowl favorite, but it wouldn't be crazy to see any one of the 36 possible Super Bowl matchups.

Here's the current playoff field:

AFC:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. New England Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Indianapolis Colts

NFC:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Chicago Bears
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Philadelphia Eagles

Wild Card Weekend is set for Saturday and Sunday, and my picks are up for those four games. Assuming my picks are correct, that would give us these four matchups for the Divisional Round:

6. Indianapolis at 1. Kansas City
5. Los Angeles Chargers at 2. New England
4. Dallas at 1. New Orleans
3. Chicago at 2. Los Angeles Rams

The way the playoff bracket works is that the lowest remaining seed will always play the highest remaining seed. In other words, if the 6 seed wins, they will automatically play the 1 seed. In the AFC, if the Colts win, they will automatically play Kansas City. If the Eagles beat the Bears, they would then have a date at the Superdome in New Orleans.

Conversely, if the 3 seed were to win the 3-6 matchup, they automatically would play the 2 seed. If Houston escapes the Colts, they would move on to Foxboro to take on New England while the Bears would travel to L.A. to face the Rams.

AFC Picks

My prediction sets up an interesting scenario in the AFC. A Colts-Chiefs matchup, in my opinion, would be the best thing for Kansas City. The Chiefs have a horrible defense that will cost them at some point in the playoffs, but they could win a track meet over the Colts. While Indianapolis has a great coach and quarterback, they have some defensive weaknesses. Likely MVP Patrick Mahomes will tear them apart, leading the Chiefs to the AFC title game over Indy.

This setup would also cause problems for the Patriots, who would have to take on the road warrior Chargers. While New England is lethal at home (8-0 and 4-0 versus playoff teams), the Chargers are 7-0 outside of Los Angeles. The Chargers are the more balanced team, and New England just doesn't look like itself lately. I'd take the Chargers to finally get the better of New England.

This would give us the grudge match between Kansas City and the Chargers, a game I'm sure every football fan is dying to see after Rivers' miraculous comeback in early December. The Chiefs defense will come back to haunt them, and I think this is finally the game where that will happen.

Teams that rely solely on offense (see 2013 Broncos) tend to struggle in the postseason, when the weather gets cold and defenses begin to figure out potent passing attacks. The more balanced team tends to win late-season games, and the Chargers clearly hold that title. In a close one, the Chargers escape Arrowhead Stadium and advance to their first Super Bowl in 24 years.

NFC Picks

My Wild Card picks would have Dallas traveling to New Orleans for a rematch of a game Dallas shockingly won in late November. The Cowboys shut down Drew Brees and the star-studded Saints offense in an ugly 13-10 victory, and there's reason to believe they could repeat that performance.

However, the Saints are simply a different team at home. They're 5-0 in the postseason at home under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, and they'll easily improve to 6-0 here. Dallas is good but not good enough to keep up with the Saints' offensive fireworks, especially in an indoor stadium. The Saints roll past Dallas to the NFC title game.

The Bears-Rams rematch would be fascinating as a matchup between two of the best young coaches in league history. Both rejuvenated their teams and made the NFL so much more exciting to watch, so it would be fitting to see them square off in the postseason.

This is the game I'm most torn about. I believe in Sean McVay and believe the Rams will play much better offensively than they did in their 15-6 defeat in December. However, defense wins championships, and we know for a fact that Jared Goff doesn't want to see the Bears in the playoffs. Chicago would narrowly beat the Rams.

The NFC title game would be a repeat of the 2007 matchup that saw Chicago break away 39-14 to make its first Super Bowl in 22 years. This game would be quite the opposite. The Bears just don't have the offense to compete with the Saints in the Superdome. New Orleans is the more complete team, and its home-field advantage will be huge. The Saints beat the Bears to advance to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 53

If you've been following me on Twitter, you've heard it all too many times: Saints versus Chargers. It's been my pick since June, and I'm not going to abandon it now. If we do see this matchup, we'd be lucky. Drew Brees versus his old team and old protege, and the two most balanced teams in football on the big stage.

This is a tough matchup to pick, but I think the Saints would have a slight advantage here. They are the more experienced team, and the Chargers don't have the top-tier defense needed to slow New Orleans' plethora of weapons. I'll take New Orleans in what could and should be one of the most exciting Super Bowls in NFL history.

Wild Card Weekend Predictions

2019-01-02T22:21:00.000-08:00

I haven't been this excited for the NFL playoffs in a long time. For the first time in at least five years, all 12 teams can legitimately win this year's Super Bowl. Everyone knew the Bills and Titans were never going to win it all last year. Neither were the 2016 Raiders with third-string quarterback Connor Cook at the helm.

Injuries and random luck struck the past few years, but not this year. Both six seeds (the Colts and the Eagles) are hot at the right time and dangerous. Both 4 seeds (often the weakest team since a bad team can win a mediocre division) are backed by solid defenses.

We used to see a lot of Wild Card teams wreck havoc in the postseason. The 2007 Giants and 2010 Packers were both Wild Card teams, and the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens were both 4 seeds that played on Wild Card weekend.

Amazingly, the last five Super Bowl champions have been number one overall seeds, and every single Super Bowl participant in the last five years earned a first-round bye. In other words, Wild Card weekend has, in the past, been somewhat meaningless.

This year, however, that changes. All eight of these teams could legitimately make and win the Super Bowl, especially the Chargers and Bears. I strongly believe this is the year that trend changes. Wild Card Weekend, for the first time since 2012, is relevant.

With that said, here's how it's going to go.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Two of the hottest teams in football meet in what should be an exciting matchup between the two quarterbacks poised to lead the AFC South for the next 5-10 years. Houston has won 11 of 13 while Indianapolis has won 9 of 10, but one team will see its hot streak come to an end.

The Colts have the lethal combination of a great quarterback and head coach in Frank Reich. They beat Houston on the road and shut out Dallas earlier in September, and their run game and offensive line looked outstanding in their Week 17 blowout victory over Tennessee.

Deshaun Watson is also no stranger to big games, and the Texans will show up. But Andrew Luck is back and on a tear, and he's going to do exactly what he did to Houston four weeks ago. Quenton Nelson and company will keep his pocket clean, and Luck's gutsy performance will power the Colts to the next round.

Colts 27, Texans 24

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

I've had the Chargers winning the AFC since June, and I see no reason to change that pick now. They looked sluggish in a 22-10 loss to Baltimore earlier this season, but a revenge game tends to bring out the best in players like Philip Rivers.

The Chargers are 7-1 on the road this season, with their one road loss coming to their crosstown Los Angeles Rams. In other words, the road warriors are 7-0 outside of Los Angeles. Lamar Jackson has been outstanding, but the Chargers are just two weeks removed from their last matchup against him and will make the necessary adjustments.

I'd rather have the veteran over the rookie and the balanced team over the one-dimensional team. The Ravens defense is superb, but the Chargers are the better team.

Chargers 23, Ravens 13

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Despite the Cowboys being favored, it seems to me that most are predicting the Seahawks to come in and take down the Cowboys in Jerry's World. They dominated Dallas earlier this season and are playing now, so I understand the reasoning behind that pick.

However, Dallas has a suffocating defense and is a much better team at home, where they even knocked off the top-seeded Saints. With a strong run game and a top-notch defense, the Cowboys have the formula to win playoff football games.

12 of Dallas' 16 games have been decided by one score, and this one will be no different. Dallas will emerge with a gutsy victory in a smashmouth, run-heavy game.

Cowboys 20, Seahawks 19

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Nick Foles is back, and he carried his Super Bowl magic with him in miraculously leading the Eagles to the playoffs with three straight victories. The Eagles look like a much better team and are much more dangerous than the Vikings would've been as the 6 seed.

I see a lot of last year's Rams in these Chicago Bears; a young team with a genius young head coach that thrives especially on one side of the ball (offense for last year's Rams and defense for this year's Bears). That Rams team bowed out early, but I see a different outcome for the Bears simply because defense wins championships.

This will be a phenomenal game that the Eagles certainly could win. But I think Foles' magic has finally run out. The Bears will escape in a tight contest and just barely move on to Los Angeles.

Bears 24, Eagles 20

Week 13 Recap

2018-12-03T11:29:00.002-08:00

I'm a little salty as I write this thanks to a series of unfortunate events causing me to miss the fantasy football playoffs, but I'll try to put my bias aside and recap an exciting week of football. The best game of the week came on Sunday night, with three consecutive offsides penalties on the Steelers (three!) gifting the Los Angeles Chargers a key AFC victory.

With that win, the Chargers, at 9-3, are very likely to make the postseason, although they still have tough games ahead against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Broncos. If they lose all three, they could find themselves on the outside looking in. But this win was huge for Los Angeles, as Philip Rivers stepped up in Melvin Gordon's absence to deliver a critical victory.

The Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans all won, with New England looking particularly sharp on defense against Kirk Cousins and the mediocre Minnesota Vikings. As it stands, New England and Houston are threats to take the top seed in the AFC. The Texans are on a remarkable nine-game winning streak, and the Patriots looked sharp on both sides of the ball in their 24-10 win over Minnesota.

AFC Playoff Picture:

1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Pittsburgh
5. LA Chargers
6. Baltimore

With a 26-16 win over Atlanta, the Ravens improved to 7-5 and are now serious threats to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh has lost two straight games and still has to face the Saints and the Patriots later in the season. Baltimore has to play the Chargers and Chiefs, but if the Steelers lose one more game than the Ravens, Baltimore could find itself as the AFC North champions.

Don't look now, but the 6-6 Denver Broncos also could find themselves in the mix. I was fortunate enough to attend Denver's 24-10 victory over Cincinnati, and the Broncos run game looked sharp as ever. Phillip Lindsay ran 19 times for 157 yards, clearly establishing himself as Denver's top running back.

Case Keenum was mediocre in throwing for 151 yards, but Denver is finally realizing that running the ball is its best chance of success. Also, Courtland Sutton had 85 of those receiving yards, which was absolutely huge for Denver. While the Broncos secondary is bad, if they beat the 49ers, Browns and Raiders as they should, they would find themselves at 9-6 with a chance to beat the Chargers at home to make the playoffs.

Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Miami are technically still in the mix, and the Titans have a chance as they also have an easy schedule. However, all of these teams have significant flaws that will most likely prevent them from making a run. The Colts are probably the biggest threat even after getting shut out (!) by Jacksonville. However, they play the formidable Texans next week, which could end their season.

My Final Playoff Prediction

1. Kansas City
2. Houston
3. New England
4. Pittsburgh
5. LA Chargers
6. Denver

In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys did the impossible by knocking off the New Orleans Saints. Now 10-2, the Saints will need a Rams loss to earn home-field advantage in the NFC. The Rams play the Bears and Eagles in the next two weeks, and I expect them to lose one of those games. However, they looked solid in a 30-16 win over Detroit, as Todd Gurley ran for 130 yards and two touchdowns to avoid a trap game.

Surprisingly, the Chicago Bears, without Mitchell Trubisky, lost to the Giants in overtime. The Bears are still poised to win the NFC North at 8-4, but the loss gives them virtually no chance of earning a first-round bye. With the Vikings and Green Bay Packers losing (and firing coach Mike McCarthy), it still looks like playoff football will come to the Windy City.

The Cowboys, with a stout defense that held the mighty Saints to just 10 points, are clearly the best team in the NFC East. However, the Eagles and Redskins are still in the NFC East and the Wild Card mix with both the Panthers and Vikings losing this weekend. The NFC doesn't look as sharp as we might have thought, and we could end up seeing a mediocre team make the postseason.

While I was surprised to see Drew Brees and company struggle in Dallas, the Saints are still my clear-cut Super Bowl pick. In fact, I think this loss was good for them; they don't have to worry about extending their win streak anymore and can just focus on winning a championship. Even if the Rams get the first-round bye, my money is still on New Orleans, who has a defense that the Rams don't, to win the conference.

Current NFC Playoff Picture

1. LA Rams
2. New Orleans
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Seattle
6. Washington/Minnesota

With a 43-16 thrashing of the 49ers, the Seahawks are looking like the favorite to earn the fifth seed and a date at Cowboys Stadium (or Lincoln Financial Field or FedEx Field). Russell Wilson is playing efficiently and the offensive line is somehow playing incredibly, giving Seattle one of the best running games in all of football. The Seahawks are the best of the rest in the NFC, and they could make some noise. If they get a third chance to play the Rams, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russell Wilson and company advance...

Carolina lost its fourth straight game, Minnesota was clearly overmatched by the Patriots, Washington lost its starting quarterback, Philadelphia is a mess, and Green Bay, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are essentially out of the picture at this point. One of these teams, however, has to make the postseason. I think it will end up being Minnesota, but I don't believe in any of them except the Eagles if they can recapture their Super Bowl form. I think Minnesota will end up claiming the final spot, but if Philadelphia does, it would be much more dangerous.

Looking at this playoff picture, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams lose in the Divisional Round. Teams without a defense don't tend to do well in the playoffs, and the Rams are currently looking at a potential matchup with Dallas, who has a physical, confident defense. If Dallas travels to Los Angeles for the second round, my money would be on Jerry Jones' bunch to brutalize the vaunted Rams offense and eliminate Sean McVay's squad.

Conference Championship Predictions: Chargers over Patriots and Saints over Cowboys

Super Bowl Prediction: Saints over Chargers

I'm tempted to switch my pick from the Chargers after their defense struggled last night. However, I like the way the matchups are working out for them right now. They would play at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, and at New England/Houston the way the picture looks right now. I expect them to beat both the Steelers and Chiefs (who gave up 33 points to Oakland!), although I think they would have trouble against Houston and New England. But at that point, after two consecutive road wins, the Chargers would have to get the job done and advance. I'm sticking with my preseason prediction!

Week 11 Recap

2018-11-21T12:55:00.001-08:00

The future of the NFL was on full display last night, with the Chiefs and Rams squaring off in one of the most exciting games in NFL history. The Chiefs became the first team in NFL history to put up 50 points...and lose. The Rams won 54-51 in what many are calling a Super Bowl preview.

Do I think the game will be a Super Bowl preview? Absolutely not. Neither team has the defense to win games in January. Both teams abandoned the run game, as Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley combined to contribute 6 of the game's 105 points. Sure, the offenses played well. But the game was sloppy and turnovers were plentiful.

The Real Super Bowl Favorite

Once again, the New Orleans Saints, who dethroned last year's champion Philadelphia Eagles 48-7, look unstoppable. The game was shocking to me, as Carson Wentz played horribly and the now 4-6 Eagles looked completely lost. Meanwhile, New Orleans broke the 45-point threshold for the third week in a row, spreading the love to Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram as usual.

My main takeaway from that game is that Drew Brees is the clear-cut favorite to be the NFL's MVP. Brees threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions, which really isn't surprising at this point. Through 10 games, he has thrown one interception. One! Aaron Rodgers has only thrown one as well, but Brees' passer rating of 126.9 (which would be the greatest passer rating of all time by a wide margin) greatly exceeds Rodgers' mark of 102.2.

Sure, you don't want to peak in Week 11, but the Saints are simply dominant on both sides of the ball. They have given up 21 points in the past two weeks even with much of the game being played in garbage time. Barring any significant injuries, the Saints are going to be a tough out for any team.

The Rest of the NFC

The Bears took control in the NFC North with yet another stellar defensive performance, scoring a defensive touchdown and keeping Kirk Cousins in check in a 25-20 victory. They probably have the best defense in the NFL, which, in my book, makes them a bigger threat to the Saints than the Rams.

Those three teams have asserted themselves at the top of the conference, but what will happen to the remaining teams is anyone's guess. With the Vikings falling to 5-4-1 and the Panthers shockingly losing to the Lions, anyone can take the two Wild Cards spots. The Redskins, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Falcons, Packers, and Lions are all still in the mix.

With Alex Smith's season-ending leg injury, the Redskins are looking much less like a contender. They still lead the NFC East by a game, but they are a much easier out for the Cowboys, who play the Redskins on Thanksgiving. With a win, the Cowboys would take first place in the decision. Washington still has to play the Eagles twice, which gives Philadelphia a legitimate chance to make it back into the playoff picture.

As for the other Wild Cards, Seattle is a hot pick to claim the sixth seed. The offensive line, the team's biggest weakness a year ago, is playing lights-out, as Seattle has the top rushing offense in the league. Russell Wilson has a terrible receiving corps but is figuring it out, getting Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett more involved. While probably not a Super Bowl contender, Seattle is making it work. With an easy schedule for the remainder of the season, I see them claiming the fifth seed.

The last Wild Card spot, in my book, comes down to Minnesota and Carolina, who both have tough schedules to close out the season. Carolina has two showdowns with the Saints, while the Vikings play the Patriots, Bears, and Packers to close out the season. As much as I want to see the Vikings in the playoffs, the rushing game isn't getting the job done. I think Carolina will figure it out in time to sneak in as the sixth seed.

The AFC

With Kansas City's loss, you would think the Chargers would actually have a shot to claim the conference's top seed. However, Los Angeles choked away a game against Denver, losing 23-22 on a last-second field goal. The Chargers can still win the division by winning at Arrowhead Stadium and with another Kansas City loss, but it's a lot less likely at this point. Kansas City should still be in position to win the division and claim a bye.

The Chiefs almost gained ground on Pittsburgh, but the Steelers emerged from Duval County with a clutch 20-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The wildly inconsistent Ben Roethlisberger shook off an atrocious first half en route to a game-winning rushing touchdown and a 16-point comeback. The Steelers won their sixth straight and are still in second place in the conference.

New England has an easy schedule through the rest of the season, with four games against its weak divisional foes mixed in with two challenging games against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. New England's showdown with the Steelers will be critical; if the Patriots lose in the Steel City, they might fail to claim a first-round bye for the first time since 2009.

Another emerging threat for a bye is the Texans, who eked out a win over Washington to win their seventh straight game. With Demaryius Thomas replacing Will Fuller IV, the Texans are still set on offense as Deshaun Watson is playing nearly as well as he was before tearing his ACL in the middle of last season.

I predicted the Chargers to make the Super Bowl, and I'm going to stand by that pick. However, the emergence of Houston makes it a lot harder for that to happen if the Chargers don't win the division. Los Angeles would have to win in Houston, in Kansas City, and in New England or Pittsburgh, which is a tough task. They have a running game, a defense, and a veteran quarterback. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a 2011 New York Giants-esque run through the AFC.

The last Wild Card spot is up for grabs, and many teams have a shot to claim it. Cincinnati, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Miami are 5-5, with Denver still in the mix at 4-6. I'd love to see the Colts, who have won four straight, make it, and I think they have the offense to get the job done especially with Frank Reich doing a magnificent coaching job. However, my favorite would probably be the well-coached Ravens, who won an impressive game over Cincinnati last week.

But as a Broncos fan, I feel obligated to say not to count out the Broncos. Denver plays Oakland, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Cincinnati plus Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. With wins in the four easier games and one win against the tougher two teams, Denver could legitimately sneak in at 9-7. It's not likely, but it's also not crazy. Go Broncos!

NFL Week 11 Picks

2018-11-16T20:47:00.001-08:00

Atlanta 23, Dallas 20

Both teams need this game badly. At 4-5, the loser is going to have incredibly long odds to make the postseason. Home-field advantage and better offensive production gives Atlanta the edge in a tight game.

Carolina 35, Detroit 14

After getting thrashed in the Steel City last week, Cam Newton continues his MVP season against the crumbling Lions. Carolina will get back on track.

Indianapolis 24, Tennessee 23

The Titans have lost four games, and only one of those losses came at the hands of a team with a winning record. In a game Tennessee should win, the inefficient offense will catch up to them. Andrew Luck wills his way to a heroic and unexpected home victory to keep the Colts rolling.

Tampa Bay 27, New York Giants 20

Ryan Fitzpatrick will throw for a lot of yards against a depleted Giants team, and, while his turnovers will keep New York in the game, Tampa Bay is the better team. Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. aren't enough.

Houston 20, Washington 17

Both teams are 6-3 and both come into this game surprisingly leading their respective divisions. Washington held Tampa Bay to a triple last week, yet DeAndre Hopkins poses a whole different threat. Just like Julio Jones did two weeks ago, Hopkins will carry Houston to a narrow victory.

Jacksonville 23, Pittsburgh 21

The Steelers are rolling, yet we can always expect a couple head-scratching games from them every season as long as Mike Tomlin is still the head coach. Much like they did twice last season, Jacksonville will rattle Ben Roethlisberger and shock the Steelers.

Baltimore 16, Cincinnati 10

It will be a low-scoring affair, but Lamar Jackson will protect the ball and do just enough for the Ravens to remain relevant in the AFC. Cincinnati is reeling, Joe Mixon is banged up, and the Bengals will fall short in a big game. It won't be the first time either.

Arizona 31, Oakland 10

David Johnson will have a field day against the depleted, frustrated Raiders and Josh Rosen will manage the game en route to his best NFL performance. But let's be honest, no one cares about this game.

New Orleans 42, Philadelphia 34

The Eagles need this game to stay in the NFC East/NFC playoff hunt, and they aren't going to get it. The Saints are simply too good in the Superdome, and Michael Thomas will be far too much to handle for an injury-prone Philadelphia secondary.

Chicago 27, Minnesota 17

The vaunted Bears defense will prove itself on Sunday night, as Khalil Mack will make a living in the Minnesota backfield. Mitchell Trubisky is playing better than ever and Anthony Miller and Allen Robinson are healthy and effective at the right time. Chicago will maintain its stronghold on the NFC North.

Los Angeles 416, Kansas City 413

Alright, I might have exaggerated just a bit. But expect points, and expect lots of them. The Rams defense has surrendered 76 points in the past two weeks, and the Chiefs have the second-worst total defense in the league. The two best offenses in the league will trade blows, but Los Angeles will end up with a 45-42 victory.

Seahawks beat Packers: What's Wrong in Wisconsin?

2018-11-16T18:35:00.000-08:00

Seattle rallied from an 11-point deficit to defeat Green Bay 27-24, keeping its playoff hopes well alive while casting a cloud of doubt around Green Bay's.

Game Recap

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers started Thursday night's contest in Seattle about as well as they possibly could have by forcing a Chris Carson fumble on the first snap of the game before scoring on an Aaron Jones run a few plays later.

After surrendering a Seattle field goal, Rodgers made an incredible throw on the run, finding Robert Tonyan (who?) for a 54-yard touchdown. But the Seahawks climbed back into the game with a Russell Wilson touchdown pass and a Carson run, taking the lead late in the second quarter.

Rodgers responded with a touchdown pass to Aaron Jones, but after trading field goals, it was Wilson who got the last laugh. He threw a beautiful pass to Ed Dickson on an "uncovered" concept my high school team used to run. No linebacker or safety was remotely close to Dickson off the line of scrimmage, so Wilson wisely threw him the ball immediately and let him barge his way into the end zone.

After this, Rodgers and the Packers were faced with a 4th and 2 at their own 33-yard line, and Mike McCarthy opted to punt the ball back to Seattle. Green Bay never got the ball back, falling to 4-5-1 and potentially seeing its playoff hopes fade away.

Coaching

It's fitting that great coaching and play calling was the cause of Seattle's go-ahead touchdown. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have their own issues, sure, but it's clear that something is wrong with the way Mike McCarthy is running the show.

The decision to punt on 4th and 2 was absolutely ridiculous. Green Bay has one of the league's worst run defenses, and Seattle is averaging the most rush yards per game (152.5) out of any team in the league. In a scenario where the Seahawks were going to be running the ball to run out the clock, the odds of a stop weren't as high as you would hope.

Additionally, if the Packers had gone for the fourth down and not gotten it, they still would have given themselves a chance if they had kept Seattle out of the end zone. A long field goal try still would have given Green Bay the ball back with a chance to win even if they were down six. Ultimately, you have to trust your quarterback and give him chances to make plays. McCarthy didn't do that.

Aaron Rodgers

It's hard to put blame on a quarterback who completed 21 of 30 passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns, but Aaron Rodgers had many flashes of mediocrity last night.

Sure, we can lament McCarthy for not giving Rodgers a chance on 4th and 2, but Rodgers deserves some blame too for missing a wide-open receiver on 3rd and 2. Rodgers had some big completions throughout the game, but the throws themselves weren't too impressive with the exception of a deep ball to Davante Adams and the touchdown to Tonyan.

Rodgers has a bad habit of putting too much weight on his back foot, which caused him to bounce the 3rd and 2 pass and which caused him to under throw his touchdown pass to Aaron Jones and another sideline pass to Adams. Rodgers made a handful of amazing plays, but he was also bailed out by his receivers a couple times and had a critical mistake at a bad time.
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What's Next

At 4-5-1, the Packers are in third place in the NFC North and a couple games behind in the NFC Wild Card race. If they win out and finish 10-5-1, they would almost certainly make the playoffs. Winning five of six would give them a shot as well and winning four would give them very slim odds, but in the competitive NFC, they don't have much room for error.

Chicago leads the division at 6-3 while Minnesota is a half-game behind at 5-3-1. The Packers have to face both of these teams on the road, which is a daunting task for Rodgers and company. Rodgers brought a 4-6 Packers team to the playoffs a couple years ago, but repeating that feat is unlikely.

If the Packers do end up missing the playoffs, I can't possibly see McCarthy coming back. Rodgers will be in his 15th season, meaning his prime is winding down. For a quarterback who relies on athleticism and pure arm strength, age takes a larger toll. The Packers have the talent on offense around Rodgers to win, but they've dug themselves quite a hole this year. With the right coaching staff next year (John Harbaugh, perhaps?) the Packers should find themselves right back in the NFC mix.

Week 10 NFL/Fantasy Football Recap

2018-11-11T19:39:00.001-08:00

The New England Patriots lost, so Week 10 was a great week to be an NFL fan. However, while the Patriots lost, the other top dogs of the NFL prevailed. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams finally emerged victorious in ugly games, while the New Orleans Saints staked their claim as the kings of the NFL.

NFC Overview

The Saints stomped the 5-3 Cincinnati Bengals 51-14 to retain the top spot in the NFC. Drew Brees broke Brett Favre's mark of 508 career touchdown passes, putting himself in second place all time in career passing touchdowns. He threw three and ran for one on Sunday.

If you have someone on that New Orleans offense, consider yourself lucky. Ingram, Kamara, Brees and Thomas all put up phenomenal fantasy numbers. Ingram broke 100 yards rushing and caught a touchdown, Thomas caught two touchdowns, and Kamara ran for two. The Saints didn't have Dez Bryant, but they clearly didn't miss him.

The Saints are still technology a half-game behind the Rams, who eked out a victory over the Seahawks on Sunday. While Jared Goff and the offense are still stellar, the defense can't seem to hold opponents out of the end zone. They gave up 31 to Seattle a week after surrendering 45 to the Saints.

Still, with a 9-1 record and a season sweep of the Seahawks under their belt, the Rams have all but locked up the NFC West and a first-round bye. The Rams and Saints are far and away the top two teams in the conference, but a third is slowly emerging in the midwest.

The Chicago Bears dominated the Detroit Lions on Sunday, with Mitchell Trubisky putting up arguably his best performance yet. Trubisky threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns on 30 attempts, posting a fantastic 148.6 passer rating on the day. As a season-long Trubisky hater, I must say I was impressed watching him play today and seeing how he uses his mobility to his advantage. With Khalil Mack and a defense reminiscent of another great Bears defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears contend in January.

At 6-3, the Bears are currently tied with Washington for the third-best record in the NFC. Washington's defense shined on Sunday, intercepting Ryan Fitzpatrick four times. With Philadelphia currently tied with the Cowboys, Washington is looking like a legitimate favorite to win the NFC East. It's about time Alex Smith has something go his way.

As for the Wild Cards, the Packers stayed in contention with a 31-12 victory over Brock Osweiler and the reeling Dolphins. Aaron Jones had the best game of his career, running for 145 as Mike McCarthy finally decided to roll with him instead of the ineffective Jamaal Williams. Rodgers was unspectacular but efficient in throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns.

Seattle and Atlanta both fell to 4-5, but on different terms. Seattle competed with the Rams for 60 minutes, while the Falcons looked sluggish against the Cleveland Browns. Both are still Wild Card contenders, but they missed out on good opportunities to improve their standing in the conference. Minnesota (5-3-1) and Carolina (6-3), who both didn't play Sunday, are still the favorites to round out the playoff picture.

NFC Playoff Predictions

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Washington
5. Chicago Bears
6. Carolina Panthers

AFC Overview

The Chiefs are the big winners of the day even though they were unimpressive in a 26-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. They gained a game over the Patriots, who lost 34-10 to the Tennessee Titans. Even though New England has the head-to-head tiebreaker, Kansas City's two-game lead vaults them into prime position to secure the top seed in the conference. However, the Chiefs still aren't guaranteed to get a home playoff game (i.e. they might not even win their own division). More on that later.

With New England's loss, Pittsburgh takes the second seed at 6-2-1. On Thursday night, the Steelers were sharp in a 52-21 thrashing of Carolina. Ben Roethlisberger threw five touchdowns in one of the finest outings of his career. The Steelers can be a head-scratching team at times, but on Thursday, they looked absolutely phenomenal.

As for the fourth seed, the Houston Texans were on bye. But the AFC playoff picture got a bit clearer with the Titans winning to improve to 5-4. Tennessee and Cincinnati are currently tied for the final wild card spot, as the Dolphins dropped to 5-5 and are no longer looking like a playoff contender.

With Derrick Henry finding the end zone and Corey Davis finally emerging onto the scene with 157 yards and a touchdown, Tennessee could be a legitimate threat. The Texans are in good shape after trading for Demaryius Thomas, but the AFC South divisional race could be a fun one to monitor as the season winds down.

Don't count out the Indianapolis Colts, who beat Jacksonville 29-26 for their third straight victory. Andrew Luck probably has a broken back from carrying the team for nine games, but he's hanging in there and is about as healthy as a quarterback could possibly be considering the caliber of his supporting cast.

The top AFC wild card spot right now is firmly in the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers, who still could claim the conference's top seed with a victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Los Angeles, after losing to the Rams and the Chiefs early in the season, has won seven straight games. It wasn't all pretty in a 20-6 win over the Oakland Raiders, but it was enough for my preseason pick to win the AFC.

AFC Playoff Predictions

1. Los Angeles Chargers
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Houston Texans
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Tennessee Titans

Super Bowl Prediction

My preseason pick was the Saints over the Chargers, and I'm going to stick with that for the time being. Neither New Orleans nor L.A. has lost since Week 3, and both have proven lately than they have the defenses to hold up in January.

Fantasy Football Fallout

The big winner of the week is Aaron Jones, who not only played well but clearly established himself as the top running back in Green Bay. Jones got 15 carries while Jamaal Williams only had three (for three yards). He's certainly in the RB1 discussion going forward and should be started each and every week.

Nick Chubb is not only getting a lot of carries, he's making something out of them. Chubb ran for 176 yards and a 92-yard touchdown on 20 carries, breaking the Browns single season record for longest touchdown run. Chubb is the clear workhorse back in Cleveland and is also a fringe RB1 going forward.

I was impressed to see Corey Davis and Allen Robinson break out, but I don't think it's a sign of what's to come. Trubisky has always managed to exclude Robinson from his star performances, finding Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen, and Anthony Miller while also somehow managing to run for what seems like 200 yards per game. As for the Titans, their offense is too inconsistent. Marcus Mariota is 28th in the league in passing yards, and his games where he throws for 100 yards and Davis has 10 yards make Davis hard to start.

Leonard Fournette got the workload with 24 carries and the receiving touchdown to make his day respectable, but he did not look good running for only 2.2 yards per carry. With T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde in that backfield and with Fournette as injury prone as ever, I would look to trade him while his value is somewhat high.

LeSean McCoy is another back who I'd sell high. In the three weeks prior to this game, he had run for 24 yards...on 24 carries. He ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, but so could I against the New York Jets defense. Don't expect anything out of that inconsistent Bills offense going forward.

David Johnson looked really good, running for 98 yards on 21 carries and catching a touchdown. Even though Arizona was trailing for most of the game, the Cardinals didn't abandon the run. That's an encouraging sign going forward. You want Johnson on your team.

Julio Jones was finally targeted in the red zone, which is a great sign going forward. He caught his second touchdown in two weeks (this one on a play designed to get him in the end zone from close out). He also had 107 receiving yards even in Atlanta's loss. He is starting to look like a top-five receiver again.

If you have any fantasy football questions or just want to hear me ramble about it for an hour, tune in to webdcr.com tomorrow night from 9-10pm ET! Shoot me an email at Baily.b.deeter.22@dartmouth.edu if you'd like to call in or send a question.

The Return

2018-11-10T21:14:00.001-08:00

From second grade to 10th grade, I used sportswriting as a way to keep myself busy after school and as something I could devote my overwhelming energy to. This blog was what excited me more than anything as a kid, but as I got into high school and faced a demanding schedule, I stopped prioritizing this interest and essentially stopped altogether. I would occasionally write an article about sports for my school newspaper, but my passion was no longer the same as I was so caught up in the day-to-day pressure of being a high school student.

Now that I'm off in college, however, I've had some time to reflect on what I truly love as I try to find a passion that I can devote a lot of my time to. I've found myself with a lot of spare time and lacking something that makes me truly excited. I was talking to my girlfriend about this, who told me I should start writing for this blog again because I loved it so much when I was a kid. I first dismissed the idea as childish and pointless, but then realized that writing about sports, even if it was just for fun, made me happier than anything and has the potential to do so many years later.

So, I'm going to be making an effort to write blog posts recapping sports the same way I used to do when I was a kid with slightly higher quality writing. This blog is not meant to be ESPN or Sports Illustrated, but rather it's meant for me to reconnect with what I truly love in my spare time while hopefully producing high-quality sports content.

At the same time, I would of course love to have an engaged audience. If you're reading this, I appreciate your support and would also appreciate if you emailed any content requests or fantasy football questions to Baily.b.deeter.22@dartmouth.edu. I'm currently running a Monday night fantasy football radio show (9-10pm ET on webdcr.com) with a friend, and sadly we're a little short on live callers, questions, and a live audience. It's almost like people don't want to listen to us rant about game script and red-zone playcalling for an hour straight. Weird.

Anyways, I'm looking forward to writing more in the coming weeks, mostly recapping the NFL season. I hope reading these posts brings you as much joy as it brings me to write them.

Post Location

2013-03-18T20:34:00.001-07:00

If you would like to continue reading my posts, check me out at Bleacher Report, Golden Gate Sports, or Hoops Habit. Bleacher Report is the nation's fourth-largest sports website, and it has great articles. I have surpassed 656,000 reads for Bleacher Report alone.

Golden Gate Sports is a smaller blog, as it covers just Bay Area sports. However, over 108,000 views were accumulated from Monday, March 11, 2013-Sunday, March 17, 2013. The blog has game recaps and previews of all games, as well as live blogs. With St. Mary's and Cal gearing up for March Madness games, Golden Gate Sports is a great place to go for analysis. The NFL offseason has also been covered in great detail, as there have been updates for all free agency news. If you want to read anything about the Giants, 49ers, Raiders, A's, Warriors, Sharks, Cal, Stanford, St. Mary's, San Francisco (college), Santa Clara, and even the San Francisco Bulls, go to Golden Gate Sports.

Hoops Habit is also smaller, but it is growing quickly, at the pace of over 100,000 views per week. It is a blog covering all things NBA with a great deal of analysis and some nice weekly fixtures. There is a lengthy podcast covering all weekly NBA events every Sunday, as well as award predictions, power rankings and stat central. Articles are thoroughly edited and inspected, so you are sure to be reading smart, grammatically correct analysis of all things NBA.

Here are links to my profiles on those websites.

Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/users/37198-baily-deeter

Golden Gate Sports: http://goldengatesports.com/author/bailydeeter/

Hoops Habit: http://hoopshabit.com/author/baily-deeter

Thanks, and be sure to check in with these websites for great sports content!

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DeeterSports

SF Giants: Why This Giants' Team Is Better Than the 2010 Team

2012-09-04T21:20:00.000-07:00

In 2010, a team with Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell in the middle of the order won the World Series.

Now, in 2012, that same team has Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence in the middle of the order. Oh, and they've got some pretty good pitching too.

San Francisco managed to win the World Series in 2010 despite a lack of offense and experience. Edgar Renteria hit a three-run home run in Game 5 of the World Series to power the Giants to their first championship since moving to San Francisco.

And now, that same team is trying to do it again.

During the first half of the season, the Giants had lots of trouble on offense and bringing in runners in scoring position. However, after the All-Star break, San Francisco leads the league in batting average with runners in scoring position.

And, thanks to Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan and others, the Giants are in the top half of the league in runs scored.

Ryan Vogelsong has been struggling, as his ERA has shot up by more than a run in just five starts (from 2.27 to 3.29). Madison Bumgarner's last two starts have been poor, and Tim Lincecum has a 5.21 ERA. Oh, and Barry Zito hasn't been too sharp lately.

Vogelsong got a good amount of luck early in the year, as he had great stats despite his inability to miss bats. However, he is in a funk now, and he's allowing a lot of home runs. Vogelsong has thrown a lot of pitches, and he hasn't been able to slam the door with runners on base.

Zito may not be earning a 126-million dollar contract, but he's been pitching well. Zito has a 10-8 record and a 4.51 ERA, and San Francisco is 16-11 when he pitches (although Zito has benefitted from some run support).However, the Giants still have a great pitching staff.

Madison Bumgarner has kept his ERA around 3.00 for the whole season, and Matt Cain has a sub-3.00 ERA and a perfect game. Lincecum has an ERA around 3.00 and a winning record since the All-Star break, and Barry Zito has great stats for a No. 5 pitcher.

Even though the Giants have received some poor outings from starters, they've still won 11 of their last 14 games. Clutch and timely hitting, unexpected contributions and good management has aided the Giants, who lead the Dodgers by 4.5 games for first place in the NL West.

Marco Scutaro, who was acquired in a midseason trade with the Rockies, is hitting .288 and has been a great on-base guy and run-scorer. He had a walk-off hit Monday against the D-Backs, and Scutaro has 24 RBI since joining the Giants.

Angel Pagan has also been great in the top of the order, and he and Scutaro have formed a formidable 1-2 punch. Pagan's batting average climbed above .290, and while it is back under .290 now, he's still been hitting very well.

Posey has hit about .400 since the All-Star break, driving in key runs left and right. He has been key to San Francisco's success, as his WAR (wins above replacement) is higher than 5. Posey has knocked in a lot of runs and made some nice plays on defense as well.

Overall, the Giants have a great team. Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Cain and others are better than they were in 2010. Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro were great pickups, and Brandon Belt and Joaquin Arias have been great too. San Francisco has lots of offensive and pitching talent, and they've been using that to their advantage.

And, while the road to a championship will be harder than it was in 2010, this Giants team is better than the 2010 team. What does that mean?

The Giants can most definitely win the World Series this year.

Dodgers Complete Huge Trade: Why Giants Fans Shouldn't Be Concerned

2012-08-26T08:50:00.001-07:00

In 2010, a team with Aubrey Huff hitting third, Pat Burrell hitting fifth and Andres Torres leading off won the World Series. And that team just happened to be the San Francisco Giants.

Now, in 2012, the Giants have Angel Pagan leading off, Pablo Sandoval hitting third and Hunter Pence hitting fifth. Oh, and they've got some pretty good pitching too. Normally, with all of that, you'd have a surefire World Series contender.

But, thanks to one huge trade, lots of people don't see the Giants as a World Series contender anymore.

San Francisco's biggest rival, the L.A. Dodgers, traded for stars Adrian Gonzalez,Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford. Crawford isn't going to play until next year (because of an elbow injury), and Beckett is among the worst in the league with a 5.23 ERA. However, Gonzalez is an amazing first baseman and a definite upgrade over James Loney.

Now, the Dodgers have Matt Kemp, Shane Victorino, Andre Ethier, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez in their lineup, and that scares a lot of Giants fans. In April, May and June, the Dodgers were known as a surprising team who couldn't hit but could certainly pitch.

Unfortunately, the MLB's newest rich team has, well, struck it rich. And other teams are going to pay for that—but the Giants won't.

San Francisco is two games ahead of the Dodgers, and they have experience in this situation. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito make up arguably the best pitching staff in baseball. And, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt are pretty good relievers.

Even with Gonzalez, the Dodgers are beatable. They've got Clayton Kershaw, who owns a 2.84 ERA in 2012 and won the Cy Young award in 2011. They have Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang, who have done well for the Dodgers. However, there are some concerning areas in L.A.'s pitching staff.

The Giants had a five-game winning streak until they were defeated by the Braves Saturday afternoon. They swept the Dodgers and teed off on Joe Blanton and Chris Capuano earlier in the week. Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner shut down the Dodgers' offense, although Gonzalez didn't play.

Joe Blanton and Josh Beckett have struggled. Lincecum has struggled for the Giants, but he's shown signs of improvement, unlike Beckett. San Francisco has no holes in its pitching staff; the Giants' worst pitcher won the Cy Young and is 10-8 with a 4.31 ERA.

Both teams have a solid bullpen, and while guys like Jeremy Affeldt, Eric Hacker and Clay Hensley have struggled out of the 'pen for San Francisco, they should have a solid bullpen come playoff time.

Because of the free-spending Dodgers, most people are predicting the Giants to fail to win the NL West. Not many people think the Giants have enough talent. However, even without Melky Cabrera, the Giants are a good team. Buster Posey and Angel Pagan have been on fire, and Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro have been very reliable.

Just like in 2010, the Giants are using a mediocre offense and great pitching to power themselves to wins. Some guys have been up and down this year, and other guys like Hunter Pence are bound to get hot. The Giants have a ton of talent, and they lead the Dodgers by two games.

Both teams play a lot of divisional games, and both teams have two series left (after the Giants-Braves series ends) against non-NL West opponents. The Dodgers play the Nationals and Cardinals, who own a combined .579 winning percentage. The Giants play the Astros and Cubs, owners of a combined .349 winning percentage.

Los Angeles may look better on paper, but the Giants still have a slight edge. San Francisco is 7-5 against the Dodgers this year, and they have an easier schedule and better pitchers. It will be a tight, stressful race, but Giants fans must have confidence.

Because by the time October rolls around, it's all going to be alright.

This article was originally published on Bleacher Report.

San Francisco Giants: Why They Won't Miss Melky Cabrera

2012-08-19T14:31:00.003-07:00

Ever since the Giants won the 2010 World Series, being a Giants fan has been pretty fun.

Fans got to celebrate a World Series title they craved so much. A band of misfits celebrated something they couldn't have imagined in their wildest dreams. A whole city was brought together, thanks to 25 guys hitting and throwing baseballs.

Then, after a somewhat disappointing season in 2011, the city was brought back together in 2012. A savior by the name of Melky Cabrera appeared out of nowhere, hitting .346 and smacking 11 homers for a team in desperate need of offense.

Giants fans loved Cabrera from the start, and they started calling him the "Melk Man." He stayed hot for the first four months of the season, and a group of lifelong Giants fans showed up at every home game dressed as Melk Men.

However, things have gone downhill. Cabrera was suspended 50 games for using performance-enhanding drugs. Then, according to ESPN.com, he was accused of creating a fake website to avoid a suspension. Now, a lot of Giants fans are mad at him for letting the team down.

His contract expires this year, and his chances of staying with the Giants have dramatically decreased. Teams will take a chance on him and see if Cabrera can still perform well without the influence of drugs, but I doubt the Giants will be one of those teams.

San Francisco has Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco in its outfield right now. Top prospect Gary Brown played left field for the first time in his career Saturday, which could be a sign that Cabrera's days as a Giant are numbered. Right now, Justin Christian is the only reserve outfielder for San Francisco.

In 21 games with the Giants, Scutaro has two homers and 18 RBI. Pence struggled when he first arrived in a trade, but he's been hitting well in San Diego. Posey raised his batting average from .289 at the All-Star break to .333, and he now has 19 homers and 77 RBI. Sandoval's batting average has been hovering around .300 for the duration of the year.

Even though Cabrera's offense and outfield play will be missed, the Giants' offense will be fine. In the three games since his suspension, San Francisco has averaged more than seven runs per game. Marco Scutaro, Pence, Pagan, Buster Posey, Joaquin Arias and Pablo Sandoval have picked up the slack in Cabrera's absence.

San Francisco's offense has been on fire lately.. San Francisco is 2-1 without Cabrera, and even though that's a very small sample size, the Giants don't seem to miss him.

They have Posey, who's a sure MVP candidate. They have Pence and Sandoval, power hitters who play good defense. They have Pagan and Scutaro, who are good defensively and know how to get on base.

Add that to a superb pitching staff and a good bullpen, and you have a great baseball team.

Sure, they could've been a little better with Cabrera. However, the Giants will get him back if they go deep in the playoffs, and they're already a great team.

So, as long as every Giant continues to play like they're playing, the Giants will be fine without Cabrera.

This article was originally published on Bleacher Report.

Fantasy Football 2012: 5 Underrated Rookies Poised for Great Fantasy Seasons

2012-08-15T09:16:00.001-07:00

Rookies always break out and have great fantasy seasons, but it's hard to predict which ones will have those seasons.

I don't know how everyone will perform, but I'm pretty sure that these guys will put up good fantasy numbers. Which guys are they, though? Find out by clicking on the link below.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1296598-fantasy-football-2012-5-underrated-rookies-poised-for-great-fantasy-seasons

Cal Bears Football: 4 Bold Predictions for the Golden Bears in 2012

2012-08-14T11:47:00.001-07:00

The Cal Bears have always been a good team. However, they haven’t been a great team in a long time.

Under coach Jeff Tedford, Cal has reached and won numerous bowl games. They even claimed a share of the Pac-10 title in 2006. However, they’ve never played in a BCS game and they haven’t played in the Rose Bowl since 1958.

No one is expecting Cal to reach a BCS bowl. Most people think the Bears will be good, but not great (again). Tedford and the Bears aren’t okay with that, but they’ll have to do a lot (add other Cal article link here) to get to a BCS bowl. That probably won’t happen, but success definitely can happen.

Here are four bold predictions for the Golden Bears in 2012.

Keenan Allen Will Be Invited to the Heisman Trophy Ceremony

Keenan Allen was one of the only bright spots in 2011 for the Bears.

Cal finished 7-6 and reached the Holiday Bowl, but they didn’t get much (if any) national media attention during the regular season, and they didn’t beat any great teams. Allen played very well and displayed his pass-catching and athletic talents, but not many people were watching.

This year, more people will be watching.

Allen caught 89 passes for 1,261 yards and six touchdowns in 2011. His numbers were great, but not Heisman-worthy. However, he will have an improved quarterback and will be targeted more. As long as Allen gets open, he will get a lot of receptions.

And it’s not only his hands that make him so good. Allen is very athletic and can run for a ton of yards after the catch. He can lay out for a ball, catch passes in the run, make adjustments to bad throws, break tackles and provide the big-play threat Cal needs.

The Golden Bears will play Ohio State on September 15, and the game will be televised. Then, on September 22, Cal plays USC. Lots of people will be watching both games, and if Allen shows the world what he can do, a lot of attention will be directed towards him and the Bears.

People would notice Allen’s spectacular performance. If he plays like he did last year and more people play attention, expect him to be in New York as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy award.

Zach Maynard Will Be a Much Better Quarterback

Zach Maynard wasn’t terrible in 2011, but he definitely wasn’t consistent.

Maynard threw 12 interceptions and failed to throw for 3,000 yards in 2011, while completing just 57 percent of his passes. His footwork had flaws and his accuracy wasn’t good, which caused a lot of the picks. If he didn’t have Allen in the receiving corps, Maynard’s stats would’ve been even worse.

However, his problems are fixable. Allen is a great receiver, and Maynard will target him often. As long as Allen gets open, Maynard will throw the ball to him. He isn’t consistent, but he has the potential to make a great throw.

An offseason of work should help improve Maynard’s consistency, accuracy and decision-making. He has a year of experience under his belt, so expect “rookie mistakes” to be eliminated. Maynard will make better reads in 2012, so as long as he’s accurate, his stats will improve and Cal’s record will too.

Cal Will Have a Great Defense

Cal lost Trevor Guyton and Mychal Kendricks to the NFL, but they still have a good defense.

Marc Anthony and Josh Hill headline a Cal defense that is inexperienced but has lots of talent. Anthony and Hill are both great corners, and both can cover top receivers, knock down and intercept passes, and stop the run.

The Golden Bears also brought in some promising recruits. Raymond Ford and Damariay Drew will add more speed and run-stopping ability to Cal's secondary, and they could make a big impact towards the end of the season when Cal takes on high-scoring teams like Washington and Oregon.

There are some great offensive players in the Pac-12, especially at the wide receiver position. Markus Wheaton of Oregon State, Robert Woods and Marquise Lee of USC, Marquess Wheaton of Washington State and DeAnthony Thomas of Oregon. However, Cal has enough talent to shut down these stars.

And, if their young players can make immediate impacts, the Golden Bears will have a great defense once again.

The Bears Will Win at Least Eight Games

Cal had a winning record in 2011, but that was still a disappointment.

The Golden Bears were very inconsistent and played horribly at times. They dominated Utah and nearly beat Stanford, but they also struggled to beat Colorado and got blown out by UCLA. You never knew what to expect from the Bears.

Part of that was due to Maynard. The quarterback was very inconsistent, but luckily, he will be better this year. Hill and Anthony headline a good secondary, and the Golden Bears have lots of talent on defense.

Cal has some tough games on their schedule. They have to play USC, Oregon, Ohio State, Washington, Stanford and other tough teams. However, Cal is a well-rounded and underrated team that could be taken lightly by stronger opponents. If the Golden Bears show up and play well consistently, they will win a lot of games and pull off some upsets.

Which is exactly what they'll do when the season starts.

This article was originally published on Bleacher Report.

SF Giants: Previewing the Giants' Upcoming Series with the Washington Nationals

2012-08-13T18:11:00.002-07:00

The San Francisco Giants currently lead the NL West by one game, and they've had some tough tests this year.

However, the biggest test is yet to come.

San Francisco prepares to take on the Washington Nationals in a battle of two division leaders. Washington is led by a trio of dominant pitchers and a well-rounded offense, and that's why they lead the league with 71 wins (and just 44 losses).

Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann make up the Nationals' dominant pitching trio, and all three will start against the Giants. Zimmermann has the third-best ERA in baseball, Strasburg's ERA is below 3.00, and Gonzalez is among the league leaders in wins (with 14).

Luckily for the Giants, three of their best pitchers will take the hill. Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong will pitch, and all have had successful careers. Vogelsong has the second-best ERA in baseball, Bumgarner leads the team with 12 wins and Lincecum has won two Cy Young awards.

Even though the pitching will be spectacular, expect to see some offense as well. San Francisco scored nine runs in back-to-back games on Saturday and Sunday, and they are now near the top half of the league in runs scored.

Washington's offense has also done well, and they've been sparked by great play by Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse. The Nationals have a very well-rounded offense, and there are no easy outs in their lineup.

The Nats have done a great job since Jayson Werth's return. Adam LaRoche, Werth, Morse and Zimmerman have all been great on offense, and Kurt Suzuki, Steve Lombardozzi, Danny Espinosa and Bryce Harper have also done well. San Francisco's pitchers will have a tough task on their hands when they face Washington's offense.

Pablo Sandoval, who is hitting .299 this year and .317 against lefties, will be available to play on Monday and will start Tuesday and Wednesday (according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). He will add a spark to an offense that's already been doing a great job.

However, Washington's aces will have a tough time as well. San Francisco has Melky Cabrera and Buster Posey, who have both been on fire lately. Both are hitting at least .400 against left-handed pitchers, which is bad for Gonzalez, who will start on Monday.

Oh, and did I mention Hunter Pence, the second-newest member of the Giants? He hasn't done well in San Francisco, but he did hit a game-winning home run on Sunday. Pence has knocked in 11 runs since playing his first game in SF on August 1.

There are a lot of different ways that this series can go down. The bats could explode, and both teams could continue to score a lot of runs. Or, the pitching could take over, and we could see gems and low-scoring games in a ballpark that swallows up hitters.

No matter what happens, the fans are sure to get a good show. San Francisco and Washington are two of the best teams in baseball, and it will be very fun to watch the games. I could simply say the games will be great and conclude the article, but no article like this would be complete without predictions.

So, what do I think will happen? I think Posey and Cabrera will pound Gonzalez and lead the Giants to a blowout win in game one, thanks to a solid effort from Vogelsong (who's been amazing at home) and an offensive explosion.

In the second game, there will be some great pitching. Bumgarner and Zimmermann have both been very consistent, and Bumgarner has been dominant at home. Expect both to pitch well into the later innings, and look for a tight, low-scoring game.

It will be close, but I'd expect San Francisco to take advantage of Washington's bullpen struggles and win. In game three, you'll see some more great pitching. I expect Lincecum to deliver another solid performance, but I think Strasburg will out-pitch him in a low-scoring game to help the red-hot Nats avoid a sweep.

So there you have it. Kick back, eat some popcorn, have a soda and watch the Giants and Nationals battle. I can't guarantee who will win, but I can guarantee that you'll see some exciting action.

A's Beat White Sox 9-7 In Slugfest

2012-08-11T20:07:00.001-07:00

Travis Blackley continued to struggle. However, the Athletics' offense continued to produce.

The result? Another wild victory for the Oakland Athletics.

Jonny Gomes homered, Chris Carter had three hits and the A's beat the White Sox 9-7 in a slugfest. Grant Balfour kicked off the "closer by committee" era by recording his eighth save of the season, as he got A.J Pierzynski to line out to end the game.

Gomes, Carter and Derek Norris all knocked in two runs for Oakland, and Brandon Inge plated the go-ahead run for Oakland. Inge ripped an outside fastball down the right field line to plate Yoenis Cespedes and give Oakland the lead.

In the third inning, Norris hit a low fastball from Francisco Liriano down the left field line for a ground-rule double. Two runs scored, and the A's took a 4-2 lead. Earlier in the inning, Carter ripped a 93 mph fastball into left field for a two-run single.

Oakland led 6-2 in the fourth, but the White Sox battled back. Kevin Youkilis and Tyler Flowers each homered, and after the 7th inning, Chicago led 7-6. However, setup man Matt Thornton came in, and he failed to stop Oakland's offense.

Thornton gave Gomes a curveball right down the middle, and he crushed it into the left-field bleachers. The game was tied, and Oakland wasn't done. They scored on Inge's single and on another hit from Gomes in the ninth, and the A's led 9-7 heading into the bottom of the ninth.

Balfour came on for the save, and he did a nice job after hitting Kevin Youkilis. Balfour didn't give Adam Dunn a good pitch to hit, and he got Dunn to fly out to left. Alex Rios struck out on a great pitch to get another out, and Pierzynski lined out to end the game.

With the win, the A's are now tied with three other teams for first place in the AL Wild Card standings. The White Sox are a half-game ahead of the Detroit Tigers for first place in the AL Central.

Tomorrow, Chris Sale (13-3, 2.59 ERA) will take the hill for the White Sox, while Bartolo Colon (9-8, 3.38 ERA) will pitch for Oakland.

Fantasy Football 2012: 5 Sleeper Wide Receivers You Should Target in Your Draft

2012-08-11T18:24:00.002-07:00

It's that time of year again! The NFL is back! Oh, and fantasy football is too.

Sorry, but summer's almost over. And it's time for everyone to start doing their homework on their fantasy football draft. Luckily for you, I'll do some of that homework for you.

Every year, there are sleepers at every position who emerge as stars and make whoever drafted them look like geniuses. It happens all the time at wide receiver, and I'm sure it will happen again.

Here are five sleeper wide receivers you should target in your fantasy drafts.

Titus Young, Detroit Lions

When should you draft him? In the middle rounds.

Why should you draft him? The Lions have the best receiver in football in Calvin Johnson. However, that doesn't mean Matthew Stafford can't throw the ball to his other receivers.

As a rookie, Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and six touchdowns. The athletic receiver knows how to get open and make plays after catching the ball, as we should know from watching him play in Detroit and at Boise State.

In addition to Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Nate Burleson caught more passes than Young in 2011. However, Stafford, who threw for over 5,000 yards last year, will target Young more. He will catch more passes and score more touchdowns in 2012.

Detroit has depth at running back, but they don't have a star ball-carrier. That means the Lions will throw the ball a lot, and Young will have chances to catch passes a lot. Expect Young's stats to be a lot better in 2012, and expect him to catch more passes than every Lions' receiver other than Johnson.

Once Young makes a catch, he can do a lot with the ball. Young averaged almost 13 yards per catch in 2011, and in his final year at Boise State, he averaged over 17 yards per catch. Once his receptions go up, so will everything else.

And that will make Young a great pickup in your draft.

Brian Quick, St Louis Rams

When should you draft him? In the later rounds.

Why should you draft him? Quick isn't as fast as his last name may indicate, but he is a great receiver. The Rams picked him in the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft and are hoping for him to develop into a star receiver for a team that's in need of one.

Now that Brandon Lloyd is gone, the Rams don't have any star receivers on their team. If Quick can use his strength and hands to catch passes, he could become Sam Bradford's number one target right from the get-go. If he does that, he'll have good stats and will become a fantasy steal.

While Young is skinny and uses his speed to break away from defenders after making a catch, Quick uses his strength and tackle-breaking ability. He can easily shed tackles and break away from defenders, even though he isn't very fast (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.55 seconds).

If Quick faces a team without a speedy, athletic corner, you should definitely start him. If he is going to be facing a smaller DB, you should definitely start him. There are defensive backs that will be able to contain Quick, but not too many. Once he gets used to the NFL, Quick will dominate and put up a large amount of points for your fantasy team in the second half of the season.

Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals

When should you pick him? At the very end.

Why should you pick him? Jones is a risky pick, but he could definitely put up solid numbers and do a nice job starting some games and adding depth to your bench. The Bengals' receiver got some praise from Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com, who said that Jones is "sneaky fast" and can catch long passes.

2011 first-round pick A.J Green was targeted a lot by Andy Dalton, who was also a rookie last year. The two helped guide the Bengals to the playoffs, where they lost to the Texans. Jones will probably see some time opposite Green, and, since opponents will have their best DB cover Green, Jones could emerge as a sleeper.

I watched him play a lot at Cal, and he really impressed me. His ability to catch poorly thrown passes, especially near the sideline, stood out to me. Jones is great at making tough catches and getting his feet down in bounds before taking a hit.

Just like fellow Golden Bear Keenan Allen, who will be a sleeper next year, Jones is athletic and can make adjustments to poor throws. He can go deep, so if A.J Green is covered, Jones can sneak downfield and haul in a pass from Dalton.

It's possible that Jones doesn't see much playing time. However, if you are in need of a bench receiver or someone to start on a bye week, Jones could be a possible solution. He has the potential to make an immediate impact for a team in need of another great receiver alongside Green.

Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders

When should you draft him? In the early or middle rounds.

Why should you draft him? Moore missed three games last year and has had some injury problems over the offseason, but he's definitely someone you should target in your draft.

Last year, Moore averaged almost 19 yards per catch and scored five touchdowns on just 33 catches. Moore will be targeted a lot, and with his speed, tackle-breaking ability and athleticism, it's almost a sure thing that he'll make something happen after every catch.

In addition to his athleticism, Moore also has great hands and can jump very high to make a catch. Now that he's played for a year and has experience, he will be targeted more and will probably be Carson Palmer's top target.

Don't draft Moore in the first few rounds, and don't make him your number one receiver. However, he is definitely someone you should target in the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth round. As long as Moore stays away from injuries, he will catch a lot of passes.

And, with Moore's athleticism and speed, when he catches a lot of passes, he will score a lot of points.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

When should you draft him? In the early rounds.

Why should you draft him? It's hard to consider Jones a sleeper after watching the way he ended the 2011 season and watching how he performed in minicamps, but Jones flew under the radar and a lot of fantasy owners failed to recognize how well he performed.

Jones has spectacular hands, and he made some fabulous catches at Alabama and with the Falcons. He's also very fast and athletic, just like a lot of other receivers on this list. Jones averaged almost 18 yards per catch last year, and he almost racked up 1,000 receiving yards on just over 50 catches.

While Jones was somewhat inconsistent during the early part of last season, he was dominant in the last few games. In the Falcons' last five games, Jones caught 27 passes for 457 yards and six touchdowns. And, his success carried into the offseason.

ESPN NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas said that if he had to pick one player that stood out to him the most during training camp, he'd pick Jones. Yasinskas noted that Jones made some big-time plays against corners like Asante Samuel and Dunta Robinson, which makes his feats even more impressive.

Jones is a deep threat, and he and Roddy White will create some chaos for opposing defenses. Expect Jones to catch a lot more passes, and expect his numbers to shoot up. It's almost not fair to call him a sleeper anymore, because he could be your number one receiver and you'd still be fine.

This article was originally published on Bleacher Report.

Giants Defeat Rockies Thanks To Offensive Outburst, Strong Start From Cain

2012-08-11T15:55:00.001-07:00

Matt Cain isn't used to struggling. However, the star pitcher was struggling. He had just lost two consecutive starts, and he had pitched poorly in both of those games. Before that, he had struggled in starts against the Dodgers and Phillies.

So Cain put an end to those struggles. And, the Giants offense backed him up.

Cain pitched well into the seventh inning, the Giants' offense erupted for nine runs and San Francisco obliterated the Rockies 9-3. With the win, the Giants pass the Dodgers, who will play in Miami later today, for first place in the NL West.

Buster Posey continued his dominance with a two-run home run. Rockies' southpaw Drew Pomeranz was supposed to throw the pitch down and away, but he left the ball up in the strike zone. Posey capitalized and homered to put the Giants up 4-0.

Joaquin Arias continued his dominance against left-handed pitchers, hitting a triple, scoring two runs, getting two hits and knocking in a run with a sacrifice fly. Arias has been hitting well lately, and a lot of his hits have gone deep into the outfield. Arias now has a .262 batting average for the season.

New acquisition Hunter Pence hit an outside pitch the other way (into right field) to plate Marco Scutaro and give the Giants a 5-0 lead. However, Pence continued to struggle with the Giants, as he went just 1-for-5.

In addition to the good offense, Cain pitched very well. He threw strikes and hit his spots very well in the first five innings, although he fell apart in the sixth. The Rockies loaded the bases with no outs, but Cain allowed just one run while getting out of the jam.

Cain's strong start is a sign that he has recovered from his struggles. Despite throwing some bad pitches, Cain forced a lot of fly balls and got out of jams. Thanks to his pitching, Giants fans never had to worry about losing the game.

San Francisco is now 62-52, while the Rockies fell to 41-70. Colorado righty Alex White (2-6, 5.75 ERA) will pitch for the Rockies on Sunday, while Giants' lefty Barry Zito (9-8, 4.19 ERA) will take the hill for the Giants.